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Final Qualifying Offer Decisions

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Giants first baseman Brandon Belt was the only one of the fourteen players tagged with the one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer this offseason to accept the deal, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). That means players like Justin Verlander, Freddie Freeman and Robbie Ray have all declined the offers, as had been anticipated.

Verlander was the only one of the aforementioned trio who ever looked like a realistic possibility to accept the QO, as he’s coming off a season lost to Tommy John surgery recovery and turns 39 years old in February. Astros owner Jim Crane told reporters last month that Verlander was looking for a contract “of some length,” though. He and his representatives found that multi-year pact on the open market, as Verlander quickly re-signed with Houston on a two-year guarantee with an opt-out possibility after 2022.

Freeman and Ray, meanwhile, made the very easy call to turn the QO. They’re among the top handful of players in this year’s class, with each likely to land a five or six-year deal that pushes well north of $100MM. There was no incentive for either player to entertain the possibility of taking a QO, since declining has no impact on their ability to continue to negotiate a longer-term arrangement with their incumbent clubs, as Verlander did with the Astros.

Here’s a full rundown of the players who rejected the qualifying offer (all other decisions had been previously reported):

Latest On Justin Verlander’s Market

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1:47pm: The White Sox are also showing “strong” interest in Verlander, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. They’re planning an “aggressive” offseason, per Nightengale, and hoping to kick things off with a successful courtship of Verlander. Of course, the South Siders’ spring facility is in Arizona, which isn’t ideal based on Verlander’s reported preferences, but that certainly doesn’t rule them out of the bidding entirely.

12:58pm: Verlander has both multi-year and one-year offers in hand, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), adding that the right-hander could make a final decision as soon as this week.

11:47am: The Braves are also among the teams with interest in Verlander, tweets David O’Brien of The Athletic. Atlanta would align well with Verlander’s reported preference for an East Coast club with Spring Training in Florida, and their status as reigning World Series champions obviously helps when pursuing any older veteran prioritizing a contender. Of course, all those players inked sizable one-year deals, whereas Verlander may be seeking multiple guaranteed seasons.

The Braves had had few qualms about signing short-term veterans of this nature under under president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos — evidenced by recent short-term pickups of Cole Hamels, Charlie Morton and Josh Donaldson.

10:46am: Justin Verlander has until 5pm ET today to accept or reject a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer (as do all other free agents who received a QO), but the widespread expectation is that he’ll reject and fully explore his options. That’s due in part to Astros owner Jim Crane saying last month that Verlander will be looking for a “contract of some length” in free agency, but it’s also due to what’s reported to be strong early interest in the future Hall of Famer.

Verlander held a showcase for teams earlier this month — a step that would seem unlikely were he simply planning to accept the Astros’ QO — and his reps at ISE Baseball have had the past 10 days to gauge interest from other clubs. Ken Rosenthal suggested on MLB Network this morning (video link) that early indications are Verlander would prefer to sign with a club that holds Spring Training in Florida, which meshes with Joel Sherman of the New York Post reporting that several interested teams believe Verlander prefers to play with an East Coast club.

Notably, Sherman adds that both the Red Sox and Blue Jays — each of whom hold Spring Training in Florida — made “aggressive” offers to another high-upside, short-term pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery: Noah Syndergaard. Peter Gammons tweeted yesterday that Syndergaard had multiple offers at or near the $21MM price point for which he agreed to join the Angels, including one approaching $25MM in value. It’s not expressly clear that the Jays or Red Sox offered $21MM+ for Syndergaard, but it’s notable that both teams were aggressive on a fellow Tommy John reclamation play.

Verlander has drawn interest from both Toronto and Boston, per Sherman, who adds that the Yankees seem fairly serious with their interest in the 39-year-old. Verlander, somewhat notably, held his recent showcase at Cressey Sports Performance — the Florida-based training facility operated by Yankees director of player health and performance Eric Cressey. Corey Kluber did the same last offseason before ultimately agreeing to a deal with the Yankees. As noted at the time of the showcase, the location of Verlander’s audition alone doesn’t tip the scale in the Yankees’ favor, but it shouldn’t be completely overlooked, either.

Geographical preference notwithstanding, the best offer is likely to win the bidding for Verlander at the end of the day. It’s unlikely he’d leave an extra year or tens of millions of dollars on the table to spurn a West Coast team to sign in New York, Boston or Toronto. Factors like geography, Spring Training locale and familiarity with teammates (e.g. Gerrit Cole in the Bronx, George Springer in Toronto) are often, albeit not always, more tiebreakers when weighing comparable offers.

Tigers fans, of course, undoubtedly would love to see a reunion in Detroit and are surely heartened to see Verlander’s preference for Florida-based Spring Training outfits. However, Rosenthal also suggests that the Tigers may not be “in as heavily” as other interested clubs.

Early Qualifying Offer Decisions

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Fourteen players were issued the $18.4MM qualifying offer before the November 7 deadline. Those players have until November 17 to gauge interest on the open market before determining whether to accept or reject that proposal. For the majority of qualified free agents, it’ll be a fairly easy decision to reject the one-year offer and set out in search of a multi-year deal.

We’ll keep track of QO decisions as they’re reported in this post.

Rejected QO

Decision Not Yet Reported

Teams are entitled to 2022 draft pick compensation for qualified free agents who sign elsewhere, with the value of the pick dependent on the team’s economic status. Teams that exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021 (only believed to be the Dodgers among teams with qualified free agents this offseason) receive a pick after Round 4. Teams that neither exceeded the tax threshold nor received revenue sharing in 2021 (Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Giants, Mets, Red Sox) would receive a draft choice after Competitive Balance Round B. Teams that received revenue sharing in 2021 (Reds and Rockies) would receive a draft choice after Round 1 if the qualified free agent signed for a guarantee of $50+MM. If the free agent signs for less than $50MM, that team would receive a draft choice after Competitive Balance Round B.

Last month, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down the penalties each team would incur were they to sign a player who’d rejected a qualifying offer.

Julio Lugo Passes Away

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Former major league infielder Julio Lugo has passed away after suffering what is believed to be a heart attack, his family tells Enrique Rojas of ESPN. He was 45 years old.

Lugo played in twelve major league seasons, suiting up for the Astros, Devil Rays, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cardinals, Orioles and Braves between 2000-11. He was the primary shortstop on the Red Sox’s 2007 World Series-winning team, part of a seven-year run as a regular at the position.

Lugo appeared in 120+ games in six of seven seasons between 2001-07 before transitioning into a utility role later in his career. Altogether, the slick-fielding infielder appeared in 1352 MLB games, hitting .269/.333/.384 with 80 home runs over 5338 plate appearances.

MLBTR sends our condolences to Lugo’s family, friends, teammates and loved ones.

Astros Meet With Starling Marte's Agents

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It could be interesting to observe if the Marlins could be similarly aggressive in approaching other free agents with offers — should such an offer be floated towards a player with fewer options than Marte, Miami might be able to strike a quick deal.  In Marte’s case, however, the Marlins now have to contend with such known suitors as the Yankees, Phillies, and Mets, plus any other clubs that might yet emerge.  The Astros could be another team in the mix, as MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter) that Houston met with Marte’s agents.

Astros Notes: Correa, Verlander, Meyers

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At the GM Meetings in Carlsbad, California, Astros’ general manager James Click spoke to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle about the team’s shortstop vacancy, although he claims not to see it that way.

Most of Houston’s playing time at shortstop over the past seven seasons has gone to Carlos Correa, who is now a free agent. The club reportedly made Correa an offer before he hit the open market, although it apparently fell well short of the industry expectations surrounding his earning power. The five-year, $160MM offer was exactly half of MLBTR’s recent prediction of 10 years and $320MM, making it not terribly surprising that Correa didn’t trip over himself to get out his pen.

In the article, Rome opines that the offer is merely a way for the front office to claim that they made an effort, and then pivot to free agents that can be had on short-term deals, or no free agents at all, with the aim of keeping the position available to be claimed by prospect Jeremy Pena. Due to wrist surgery, Pena only played 30 games at Triple-A this year, but they went very well. The 24-year-old hit .287/.346/.598, for a wRC+ of 126. He comes in at #42 on the FanGraphs list of top prospects across the league, although he doesn’t crack the top 100 at Baseball America or MLB Pipeline.

Until his arrival at the big leagues, the club could consider the in-house option of Aledmys Diaz, as Click describes him as “more than qualified” to take the job. Diaz has a lot of time at shortstop on his resume, but not recently, just 14 games in the last three seasons. That lack of recent work at short and his roughly league-average offense over the past two seasons would certainly be a downgrade from Correa, who is elite on both sides of the ball.

One option not being taken seriously, however, is moving Alex Bregman from this base to shortstop. When asked about that option, Click said, “I would highly doubt it” and later added, “I don’t want to get too cute by half and try to jam a square peg into a round hole.” Bregman was primarily a shortstop before reaching the big leagues, sliding to third because of the presence of Correa. He saw some significant time there in 2019 when Correa was hurt, getting into 65 games, but hasn’t played there since. The move doesn’t seem to be totally off the table, though, as Click added that he “would have to talk to Alex about it.”

In a separate post, Rome speaks to Click about the pitching situation, with Click saying that the bullpen is a bigger need than the rotation. “I know that people have started probably mentally thinking of Cristian Javier as a reliever, but we don’t think that way,” Click says, “and having him as a starting pitching option is very real for us and creates a lot more depth.” Including Javier as a starter certainly does make the rotation look healthy, with Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy and Jake Odorizzi all on hand as viable options. The club also has an outstanding $18.4 qualifying offer in front of Justin Verlander at the moment, although based on the success of his recent showcase, the odds seem to be in favour of him declining and exploring the market. Click himself spoke positively about Verlander’s performance at the showcase, as relayed by Alden Gonzalez of ESPN. Odorizzi’s level of participation seems to be a question mark, however, as Rome details how the hurler wasn’t happy with his usage at times, displeased with the club’s hesitance at letting him face a batting order for a third time. He’s entering his final guaranteed year as an Astro but has a player option for 2023.

Elsewhere in Astros land, the club got some bad news regarding Jake Meyers, per Rome. Meyers left game four of the ALDS with a shoulder injury and never returned. He recently had surgery to repair a labral tear and isn’t expected to be playing by Opening Day 2022. That will hurt the club’s center field depth, as they had traded away Myles Straw at the deadline, in part because Meyers was ready to step up and take his place. The plan went very well before the injury, as Meyers hit .260/.323/.438 for a wRC+ of 111 in 49 games, along with a good showing in four postseason games. As long as Meyers is on the shelf, Houston’s top options in center will likely be Chas McCormick and Jose Siri, although moving Kyle Tucker from right to center is also on the table. “We have to decide, ‘Do we want to consider moving Kyle to center and then going shopping for a corner guy?’” Click said, per Jake Kaplan of The Athletic. “‘Do we want to have Kyle in center and have Chas and Siri and Yordan and Brantley be kind of rotating through all those spots?’” The market for free agent center fielders isn’t strong, with Starling Marte representing the only true everyday option. The market for corner outfielders, however, has many more exciting options. If the club feels comfortable with Tucker up the middle, it could make sense to take that route. At the big league level, he’s only played five regular season games in center in his career, although he saw some time there this postseason after Meyers got hurt.

Verlander Showcase Draws Scouts From 15-20 Teams

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Two-time Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, who has pitched just six innings since the conclusion of the 2019 season due to 2020 Tommy John surgery, held a free-agent showcase this week. Representatives from as many as 15 to 20 teams this week, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post, adding that Verlander’s fastball was clocked from 94 to 97 mph. He’s presently about 13 and a half months out from the surgery and will be 17 months removed from the procedure by the time Spring Training is set to begin.

As one would expect, the list of known teams in attendance at the showcase includes a blend of big-market contenders and a few rebuilding clubs looking to turn the corner and get back into competitive ball. Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic tweets that the Yankees, Rangers and Tigers were in attendance. Sherman notes that the Mets had two scouts present for Verlander’s workout. TSN’s Scott Mitchell adds the Blue Jays to the pile, and the Post’s Ken Davidoff lists the Giants as another suitor. Angels GM Perry Minasian told reporters that the Halos had someone present to watch Verlander as well (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Sam Blum).

Of course, given the stage of the offseason we’re at, it’s safe to assume that virtually any team with a modicum of 2022 postseason hope and/or any actual money to spent this offseason was at least present to gauge Verlander’s readiness. As Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom asked rhetorically when confirming his club’s presence at the showcase (link via Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe): “Age might affect the term you consider, but if the present ability is there, why wouldn’t you be interested?”

By all accounts, the showcase went quite well. Beyond the multiple reports pegging Verlander’s velocity in the mid- to upper-90s, Sherman indicates that Verlander was able to throw all of his pitches and looked sharp across the board. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle tweets that one scout offered a simple, two-word assessment of Verlander after watching his open audition: “He’s ready.”

It’s certainly worth noting that the showcase was held at the Cressey Performance Center — a facility run by Yankees director of health and performance Eric Cressey. Corey Kluber held his own showcase there last year and ultimately signed with the Yankees, but the mere location of Verlander’s workout doesn’t make a deal with the Yankees a foregone conclusion.

The Astros made a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer to Verlander over the weekend, but the widespread expectation is that he’ll reject that in search of a multi-year offer. Astros owner Jim Crane said last month that Verlander would likely be looking for a “contract of some length” in free agency, heavily implying at least a two-year term. Furthermore, hosting a showcase for two-thirds of the league is an obvious indicator that Verlander is interested in seeing what the market has to bear.

Verlander, 39 in February, didn’t pitch in 2021 and threw just six innings in 2020. Of course, in his last healthy season, he won the 2019 American League Cy Young Award after posting a 2.58 ERA in an MLB-best 223 innings with a huge 35.4% strikeout rate against a 5.0% walk rate. Verlander has said on multiple occasions in the past that he hopes to pitch well into his 40s.

Alex Bregman Undergoes Wrist Surgery

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The Astros announced that third baseman Alex Bregman underwent surgery on his right wrist today, though the procedure isn’t expected to impact his readiness for the 2022 season.  The team’s projected timeline sees Bregman as restarting baseball activities in 6-10 weeks, which should mean he’s set for the start of Spring Training camp in February.

Bregman has been battling wrist problems since September, as Astros teammate Carlos Correa revealed to Sports Illustrated’s Stephanie Apstein during the World Series.  Bregman downplayed any physical issues but something clearly seemed amiss with his performance at the plate in October.  While Bregman had a few big moments during Houston’s playoff run, Bregman hit only .217/.304/.300 with one home run over 69 plate appearances this postseason.

The wrist surgery underscores what has been an injury-plagued year in general for the third baseman.  Bregman played in only 91 games after missing over two months rehabbing a left quad strain, and he also spent a week on the COVID-related injury list in April.  Though it all, Bregman still provided above-average (113 OPS+, 115 wRC+) offense and hit .270/.355/.422 with 12 home runs over 400 PA, though it was a decided step backwards from his All-Star numbers in 2018-19.  Getting Bregman healthy and fully back on track would be a needed boost to an Astros lineup that might lose Correa to free agency this winter.

14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Today was the last day for teams to issue qualifying offers to eligible free agents, as teams had to make their decisions by 4pm CT.  With the deadline now behind us, here are the players who were issued the one-year, $18.4MM offers…

This is the highest number of qualifying offers issued since the 2015-16 offseason, when a record 20 players received the QOs.  Only six players received qualifying offers last winter, which was the lowest ever issued in an offseason, yet not really surprising given the pandemic’s impact on the 2020 season and league revenues.

These 14 players now have until November 17 to decide whether or not to accept the offer.  If they accept, they’ll receive $18.4MM next season, and can’t be traded until June 15, 2022.  They also won’t be eligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips to free agency (players are also ineligible for the qualifying offer if they haven’t spent at least one full season with their current team).  Since the qualifying offer system was introduced in the 2012-13 offseason, 10 of the 96 players to receive a QO have taken the deal.

If a player rejects the qualifying offer, draft pick compensation is now attached to their market, unless they re-sign with their former team.  Teams who sign a QO free agent will have to surrender at least one draft pick, and potentially some international bonus pool money depending on their status as revenue-sharing recipients or whether or not they exceeded the luxury tax threshold.  (Here is the list of what every team would have to give up to sign a QO free agent.)

If a QO free agent signs elsewhere, that player’s former team receives a compensatory draft pick based on this criteria….

  • A draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B will be awarded if the team losing the free agent did not receive revenue sharing or if the free agent in question signed a contract worth less than $50MM in guaranteed money.
  • A draft pick after Round 1 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent received revenue sharing and the free agent in question signed for more than $50MM.
  • A draft pick after Round 4 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent paid luxury tax penalties in the preceding season.

As always, several factors are weighed by both teams and players about whether or not to issue or accept qualifying offers.  This winter provides yet another wrinkle — this could be the final year of the current qualifying offer system due to the expiration of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1.  It is widely expected that the owners could lock out the players if a new deal isn’t reached by that date.  In the event of a lockout, MLB would institute a roster freeze on all transactional business involving Major League players, thus bringing the free agent market to a halt.

With this deadline looming, it is possible we could see some QO recipients (those less certain of landing big multi-year contracts) choose to accept the one-year deal in order to guarantee themselves some financial and contractual security prior to a possible lockout.  By that same token, this could make teams warier about extending the qualifying offer to certain players due to a larger suspicion that they would accept…or perhaps a player’s willingness to accept could make a team more inclined to issue a QO to a so-called borderline case.

Justin Verlander To Hold Showcase On Monday

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It stands to reason that Verlander will probably hold multiple showcases in order to prove that his arm has recovered from the TJ procedure, and that he’ll be ready to roll when Spring Training camps open.  The timing of a second showcase could be particularly important, however, since Verlander has until November 17 to decide whether or not to accept the qualifying offer extended by the Astros today.  If Verlander throws well and gets some good buzz coming out of Monday’s session, it could make him lean against taking the one-year, $18.4MM offer to return to Houston, if he gets an indication that at least one other club is interested in making him a more lucrative multi-year deal on the open market.

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