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Preller Discusses Padres’ Shortstop Situation

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The Padres find themselves in an unfamiliar position. San Diego could be on the lookout for a shortstop despite their affinity for collecting players with experience at the position. Most of those players (i.e. Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth) moved off shortstop. Ha-Seong Kim will be a free agent when he declines his end of a mutual option in favor of a $2MM buyout. Kim is among the most difficult free agents to project after his season was cut short by a labrum injury that required surgery.

San Diego baseball operations president A.J. Preller addressed the position as part of a conference call with reporters on Monday (links via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com and Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune). Preller said the Padres “would love to bring (Kim) back” but acknowledged the uncertain timeline on his injury.

The Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee wrote a few weeks ago that Kim was aiming for a return in April or May. Preller left the situation more open-ended. The executive noted that Kim isn’t slated to begin a throwing program until close to the start of the season. As for a return to game action, Preller loosely floated “May, June, July” as viable outcomes.

It’s clearly too early in the rehab process for the Padres to narrow down a specific target. That uncertainty should all but close the book on the chance of San Diego issuing Kim a qualifying offer. The 29-year-old infielder would probably accept a $21.05MM salary, which is too much for the Padres to risk with Kim looking very likely to at least begin the season on the injured list.

Preller and his staff also face notable free agent losses in the bullpen (Tanner Scott), left field (Jurickson Profar) and behind the plate (Kyle Higashioka). The relief group should be strong enough to weather Scott’s departure, but the Padres will need to address a few spots in the lineup while also finding a replacement for the injured Joe Musgrove in the rotation. That could make it difficult to retain Kim.

Even if the Padres were to bring him back, they’d need a short-term replacement while he completes his rehab. If he walks, they’ll need a permanent answer. Bogaerts moved back from second base for the stretch run. The Padres seem to prefer him at the keystone, though they might not have any better options at shortstop.

Machado and Cronenworth haven’t played there in years. Nor has Tatis, who has been a full-time right fielder since returning from the injuries and suspension that wiped out his 2022 season. Merrill developed as a shortstop prospect before learning center field on the fly. The 21-year-old immediately became one of the sport’s top all-around center fielders.

Preller didn’t seem keen on the idea of moving Tatis or Merrill back to the infield. “They’d probably love that possibility. They always joke around — ’Whatever’s needed,’” the baseball ops president said. “The great part of those guys is they’re talented athletes, they can play different spots. … But Tati winning the Platinum [Glove] two years ago, and Jackson doing a tremendous job in center field this year, we know that they’re really good at what they do in the outfield.”

There hasn’t been much serious discussion about Tatis moving back to shortstop. It’s a plausible scenario for Merrill, who only moved off shortstop in deference to Kim and seems as if he can comfortably adjust to whatever position the Padres ask of him. Yet as Preller noted, it’s tempting to leave Merrill in center field with how well he played this year. San Diego doesn’t have an obvious in-house candidate to take over in center if Merrill were to come back onto the infield. They’d probably need to acquire a center fielder and the free agent market at the position is extremely thin. It’s not much deeper at shortstop, where only Willy Adames and Kim, if healthy, profile as regulars.

Padres Plan To Discuss Extension With Mike Shildt

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Padres skipper Mike Shildt originally signed a two-year contract when hired to manage the club last offseason, but the club already has interest in keeping him around for a longer period. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller tells the Padres beat that the front office will sit down with Shildt and several members of the coaching staff to see if they can “line up” on a deal to keep them around on longer-term deals (X link via Annie Heilbrunn).

Under the 56-year-old Shildt, the Padres played at a 93-69 pace, good for second in the National League West and a Wild Card berth in the postseason. Shildt’s Padres topped the Braves 2-0 in the first round of postseason play before taking the archrival Dodgers to their limit in a thrilling, back-and-forth five-game National League Division Series. Ultimately, a Friars club that scored 21 runs over the first three games of the series was held scoreless in Games 4 and 5 alike.

Despite that disheartening finish to the season, Shildt’s first year in San Diego has to be considered a success. The Padres’ record improved by 11 games, and San Diego returned to postseason play after missing out on the heels of an 82-80 showing a year prior. As importantly, Shildt quickly won the clubhouse over. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune spoke to several Padres veterans late in the season — many of whom have been with the team for multiple prior managers — and each took the opportunity to heap praise onto the environment and culture that Shildt had brought to the clubhouse. Joe Musgrove, Jake Cronenworth and Manny Machado have all played under three different managers in San Diego (four, in Machado’s case), and all effused praise for the job Shildt has done in his first season at the helm.

Of course, while Shildt was new to the Padres organization this season, this certainly wasn’t his first experience managing. He spent three and a half seasons leading the Cardinals’ dugout, and his dismissal in St. Louis registered as a legitimate shock following the 2021 season. Shildt had originally joined the Cardinals as a scout in 2003 before getting into minor league coaching and managing. In 2017, he was added to the big league staff as a quality control coach. He eventually became the team’s third base coach, then bench coach, and then interim manager following Mike Matheny’s firing. He soon shed the “interim” label and was extended on a three-year deal. He was named National League Manager of the Year in 2019.

In the weeks prior to Shildt’s own firing in St. Louis, the Cardinals had gone on an astonishing 17-game September winning streak to come roaring back into postseason contention. They lost a then one-game Wild Card date with the Dodgers, but Shildt was generally seen as an extension candidate following that 2021 campaign. Instead, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak cited “philosophical differences” in cutting ties with Shildt and promoting current skipper Oli Marmol to the post.

Shildt landed on his feet quickly. He took a job in the Commissioner’s Office, working in on-field operations alongside former Marlins general manager Michael Hill. Just six weeks later, he was hired as a player development consultant for the Padres and allowed to work in both roles simultaneously. San Diego had previously interviewed him for their managerial vacancy which wound up going to Bob Melvin, but Shildt received another interview two years later and this time landed the job on his current two-year contract.

Barring an extension, Shildt would head into next year as the proverbial and dreaded “lame duck” manager on an expiring contract, so it’s sensible enough that the Padres — who’ve now employed Shildt in some capacity for three years — are hopeful of solidifying his standing within the organization.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

No-Doubters

There’s zero suspense with this quintet. They’re going to receive qualifying offers, which they’ll easily decline. Soto is on his way to a record-setting deal. Adames and Bregman are locks for nine figures. Alonso has a solid chance to get there as well. It’s tougher to envision a $100MM contract for Santander, but he shouldn’t have any issue securing three or four years at an average annual value that’s around the QO price. As revenue sharing recipients, the Brewers and Orioles will get picks after the first round in the 2025 draft (assuming Adames and Santander sign for more than $50MM). The Mets, Yankees and Astros all paid the luxury tax and would only get a pick after the fourth round if they lose their qualified free agents.

Likely Recipients

We placed Hernández in the “likely” bucket last offseason when he was coming off a down year with the Mariners. Seattle opted not to make the QO and let him walk, citing a desire to cut back on the swing-and-miss profile that Hernández brings. That paved the way for the Dodgers to add him on a heavily deferred $23.5MM pillow contract. It was one of the best value signings of the winter. Hernández returned to peak form, bopping a career-best 33 homers with a .272/.339/.501 line through 652 plate appearances. That’s more than enough power to live with a few strikeouts and a fringy defensive profile in the corner outfield.

The cherry on top for L.A. is that Hernández remains eligible for the QO in his return to free agency. The Dodgers could accommodate a $21MM salary in the unlikely event that he accepts. As luxury tax payors, they’d only receive a pick after the fourth round in next year’s draft if he declines and walks. That minimal compensation is the biggest reason Hernández isn’t a lock, but he’s very likely to decline the QO in search of three or four years. The downside if he accepts is that he returns at a similar price point to the one Los Angeles offered coming off a rough season. Opting against the QO only makes sense if the Dodgers are fully committed to giving Andy Pages a look in left field next season.

Walker has seized upon a late-career opportunity with the Diamondbacks to develop into one of the sport’s best first basemen. He’s a Gold Glove caliber defender who topped 30 homers in both 2022 and ’23. He’d have gotten there again this season if not for an oblique injury that cost him the entire month of August. Walker had to “settle” for 26 homers with a .251/.335/.468 slash over 130 games.

The South Carolina product turns 34 just after Opening Day. He’s looking at four years at most and could wind up signing for two or three seasons. That could come at a comparable AAV to the qualifying offer price, though, and this is likely Walker’s only chance to really cash in on a multi-year contract. He’d likely decline a QO. If he didn’t, the D-Backs should be happy to have him back for another season at just over $21MM. The majority of MLBTR readers agree; more than 70% of respondents in a poll over the weekend opined that the Diamondbacks should make the offer.

Long Shots

It’s tough to see a qualifying offer for anyone in this group. Goldschmidt is the least likely. The Cardinals are entering a retooling year and he’s coming off the worst season of his career. The former MVP hit better in the second half than he did in the first. He should land a strong one-year deal but isn’t likely to get to $21MM.

Kim looked like a lock for the QO before suffering a late-season labrum injury in his throwing shoulder. He underwent surgery that’ll almost certainly sideline him into the early part of next year. There’s a decent chance he’d accept, which isn’t a great outcome for a Padres team that may enter the offseason already up against the budget. Payroll is a similar concern regarding Profar, who is coming off easily the best season of his career. He’s been wildly inconsistent throughout his decade-plus in the big leagues. San Diego baseball operations president A.J. Preller loves Profar, but $21MM+ is a lot for a team with a massive arbitration class and needs at shortstop and in the rotation. The Padres could try to bring him back for three or four years at a lesser annual hit.

O’Neill had a productive season for the Sox, hitting 31 homers with a .241/.336/.511 slash. He added three more IL stints to his lengthy career injury history, though, and the overwhelming majority of his production came against left-handed pitching. O’Neill’s righty bat provides a nice balance in a Boston lineup that skews heavily to the left side, but the QO price feels steep for this profile. There’s a strong chance he’d accept.

Torres would not have warranted a mention on this list a couple months ago. He had an excellent finish to the regular season (.306/.375/.417 after August 1) and has a .297/.400/.432 slash with more walks than strikeouts in October. That’s enough to at least get him back on the radar, but a QO still feels like a stretch. He’s a poor defensive second baseman whose overall season line — .257/.330/.378 in 665 plate appearances — was essentially league average.

At the trade deadline, the Yankees seemed set to turn the keystone to Jazz Chisholm Jr. and let Torres walk. They could keep Chisholm at the hot corner, but they’d need to overlook the flaws Torres showed for a good portion of the regular season. There’s a strong chance he’d accept a QO, which would put the Yanks on the hook for more than $44MM after accounting for the corresponding luxury tax hit. Tying that money up a week into an offseason where they’ll face a massive bidding war on Soto probably isn’t happening. That’s especially true since the compensation they’d receive if Torres declines (a pick after the fourth round) isn’t particularly valuable.

Ineligible

Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. That’s largely a moot point with regard to the position player class, as no one from this group was likely to receive one anyways. Bellinger probably won’t opt out of the two years and $50MM left on his deal with the Cubs. Conforto and Pederson would’ve been fringe candidates at best even if they hadn’t received the offer earlier in their careers.

Should The Padres Move Adrián Morejón Back To The Rotation?

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Left-hander Adrián Morejón just wrapped up the best season of his major league career, at least so far. He had appeared in each of the seasons from 2019 to 2023 but never reached 35 innings pitched in any of those. In 2024, he made 60 relief appearances, logging 63 2/3 frames. He allowed 2.83 earned runs per nine innings in that time. His 26.1% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 51.4% ground ball rate were all better than league averages. He added another two appearances in the postseason.

Now the Padres and Morejón will have to decide what’s next. The southpaw came up as a starting pitching prospect and was highly regarded as a minor leaguer. The Cuban lefty secured an $11MM signing bonus from the Padres in 2016, before the league introduced the hard-capped international amateur spending system that currently exists. Baseball America considered him one of the top 100 prospects in the league from 2017 to 2021, with Morejón getting as high as #52 going into 2019.

But his trajectory slowed down since that peak of his prospect hype, largely due to injuries. In 2019, he made his major league debut but missed time due to a shoulder impingement. The 2020 season was shortened by the pandemic and there were no minor league games, limiting him to just nine appearances and less than 20 innings that year. In 2021, he required Tommy John surgery after just two starts. He was off the injured list by June of 2022 but missed time in the second half of that year due to shoulder inflammation. In 2023, he spent time on the IL due to a left elbow sprain and right knee inflammation, limiting him to just nine major league innings and less than 30 on the farm.

With all of those injuries, the Padres understandably kept him in a relief role this year. As mentioned up top, he stayed healthy and thrived in the bullpen. Based on the way the past few years went, the club might be tempted to just keep Morejón in the bullpen. With Tanner Scott set to reach free agency, Morejón arguably projects as the club’s best southpaw reliever for 2025, ahead of Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui.

But there’s upside to considering the alternative, with Garrett Crochet being a best-case scenario example of what’s possible. Like Morejón, Crochet was a top prospect who had spent the early parts of his career either hurt or pitching in relief. The White Sox stretched him out for a rotation role in 2024 with fantastic results, as he posted a 3.58 ERA over 146 innings. Even those numbers sell him short, as that club’s poor defense seemingly contributed to a .318 batting average on balls in play for Crochet this year. He struck out 35.1% of batters faced, limited walks to a 5.5% clip and got grounders on 45.1% of balls in play. If it weren’t for that high BABIP, he probably would have kept some more runs off the board, which is why his 2.69 FIP and 2.53 SIERA were far better than his ERA.

That’s not to say that the Padres should consider such a performance from Morejón to be likely, but it demonstrates the proverbial pot of gold they could chase. Crochet is now a borderline ace and he will likely be the top trade candidate of this offseason, with the White Sox looking at bringing back a king’s ransom in terms of young prospects.

Morejón threw five different pitches in 2024, suggesting there’s potentially still a starter’s repertoire in there, without him relying on any one pitch too much. His sinker, slider and four-seamer were all thrown between 23 and 36% of the time, while he also sprinkled in a splitter 7.6% of the time and a sweeper at a 2.6% clip. That helped him avoid the extreme splits that can often doom a pitcher to a specialized relief role. Lefties hit .255/.303/.367 off Morejón this year while righties were only slightly better at .257/.321/.405.

Due to Morejón spending so much time on the IL, he has managed to accrue more than four years of major league service time. That means that, despite his limited track record, he’s slated for free agency after 2026. But the missed time has also prevented him from increasing his earning power. He made $850K this year, barely above the $740K league minimum. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a modest bump to $1.8MM in 2025. He’d be able to secure one more arbitration raise for 2026 before hitting the open market.

That price point is important for the Padres. Due in part to the collapse of their broadcast deal with Diamond Sports Group, the club had to cut the payroll last winter. They flipped Juan Soto to the Yankees to help them duck under the competitive balance tax while also adding some needed starting pitching depth.

Starting pitching is again a concern for the Friars going into 2025, with the recent news that Joe Musgrove is set to miss all of next year recovering from Tommy John surgery. Michael King, Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish give the club a strong front three but they have question marks at the back end. Matt Waldron had a 3.71 ERA in the first half but an ugly 8.10 ERA in the second half. Randy Vásquez had a 4.87 ERA this year but with a tepid 14.4% strikeout rate and he also had an 8.21 ERA in his Triple-A starts. Musgrove will hopefully be back by 2026 but King and Cease are both slated for free agency after 2025, meaning there’s even less certainty in the future.

Improving the rotation will undoubtedly be a focus for president of baseball operations A.J. Preller this winter but the budget might again be an issue. The Friars already have an estimated $231MM CBT number for next year, according to RosterResource, just shy of next year’s $241MM base threshold. Assuming the club wants to avoid the tax again in 2025, that doesn’t give Preller a lot to work with and even back-end starters often get eight-figure deals in free agency. Last winter, Kyle Gibson got $13MM on a one-year deal, Lance Lynn got $11MM, Wade Miley and Alex Wood each got $8.5MM while Martín Pérez got $8MM.

In addition to filling out the rotation, Preller will be looking to replace lost offensive production. Each of Jurickson Profar, Ha-Seong Kim, Donovan Solano, David Peralta and Kyle Higashioka are slated to reach free agency, putting some notable dents in the lineup.

Given the club’s tight budget and long to-do list, it would be a great solution if Morejón could become a starter next year. That would be far cheaper than filling a rotation spot via the open market. There’s also the trade market but the Padres have sent out a lot of prospects in recent years and would probably love to avoid doing more of that, if possible.

But despite all the attraction of Morejón jumping into the rotation, there’s also the risk of another injury cropping up. In that scenario, it’s entirely possible that the Padres fall short of upgrading the rotation and also subtract a key lefty from the bullpen mix.

What do you think the Padres should do? Give him a shot at the rotation or stick with what’s working? Have your say in the poll below!

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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The Padres won 93 games and went into October as a trendy pick for a long playoff run. Their bats stalled out in the final two games against the Dodgers, sending them into an offseason that could see a decent amount of turnover with a handful of important free agents.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • LHP Wandy Peralta can opt out of final three years and $13.15MM on his deal
  • Team, SS Ha-Seong Kim hold $8MM mutual option ($2MM buyout)

Additional Financial Commitments

  •  Owe $12.24MM to Red Sox as condition of Eric Hosmer trade

2025 financial commitments: $138MM
Total future commitments: $1.117 billion

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Wade, Patiño

Free Agents

It seems like every offseason in San Diego results in a significant shakeup. This winter will probably be no exception, even if the Padres aren't going to make a single move that is as impactful as last winter's Juan Soto/Michael King blockbuster. Between a hefty arbitration class, a number of free agents who played key roles in 2024, and a late-season injury that dealt a hit to their rotation, there's a lot for the front office to address.

The offseason kicks off with option and qualifying offer decisions. There's not much intrigue with San Diego's pair of option calls. Wandy Peralta will forego his chance to opt out of the remaining $13.15MM on his free agent deal. Ha-Seong Kim will collect a $2MM buyout on his mutual option and test the market.

San Diego probably won't issue a QO to any of their free agents. The midseason trade renders Tanner Scott ineligible, not that the Friars were likely to offer a $21.05MM commitment to a reliever anyhow. Kim once seemed like an easy call for the QO, but his late-season labrum surgery makes that too risky. The only other candidate would be Jurickson Profar, who'll be one of the tougher free agents to value after a career year. If the Padres expect Profar to repeat this year's production, he'd be worth the QO price. Profar's career has been wildly inconsistent, though, and there's probably not enough payroll space to offer the first-time All-Star more than $21MM while addressing multiple holes on the roster.

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Latest On White Sox Managerial Search

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TODAY: The White Sox also have interest in Rangers bench coach/offensive coordinator Donnie Ecker and Dodgers bench coach Danny Lehmann, Fegan and Nelson report.  Chicago may have to wait until the NLCS is over to speak with Lehmann or another reported target in Los Angeles first base coach Clayton McCullough, who 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine cited as “a leading candidate” for the White Sox job back in September.

OCTOBER 16: While not the biggest piece of White Sox-related news today, the club’s more immediate piece of short-term business is finding a new manager.  James Fegan and Josh Nelson of Sox Machine report that Tigers bench coach George Lombard and Padres special assistant A.J. Ellis are two of the candidates being considered in a still-evolving search.

This isn’t the first time that the 49-year-old Lombard has been linked to a managerial opening, as he previously interviewed with the Pirates in 2019 (before Derek Shelton was hired) and for the Tigers in 2020.  Though Detroit ended up going with A.J. Hinch as its new skipper, the Tigers were impressed enough by Lombard to bring him aboard as the bench coach soon after Hinch was hired, and Lombard has subsequently spent the last four seasons in the role.

Lombard’s playing career saw him appear in parts of six seasons from 1998-2006, and he hung up his cleats following a 2009 season spent in the minors and in independent ball.  He then worked in the Red Sox farm system for the next six seasons as a coach, roving coordinator, and manager — a two-season stint with the Red Sox rookie league affiliate in 2011-12 represents Lombard’s only experience as a manager.  After a few months working with the Braves as a minor league coordinator in 2015, Lombard quickly moved onto a new job as the Dodgers’ first base coach, and spent the 2016-20 seasons as part of the L.A. coaching staff.

In a coincidental overlap, Ellis was still playing for the Dodgers in 2016 during Lombard’s first season.  Ellis spent nine of his 11 MLB seasons with the Dodgers, and then after retiring following the 2018 season, stayed in the NL West by taking on an assistant role within the Padres’ baseball operations department.  The special assistant title is a nebulous one that tends to vary greatly in responsibilities based on the individual’s specialties and the club’s needs, but Fegan writes that Ellis has done “plenty of roving player development work” over his six years in San Diego.

Moving into a regular job in the dugout would therefore represent an entirely new frontier for the 43-year-old Ellis, who has no formal managerial or coaching experience.  Of course, Ellis’ long career as a catcher shouldn’t be discounted, given the long line of ex-catchers moving into managerial roles.  As Fegan notes, Ellis had a reputation as a leader on the field during his playing days, and the White Sox could be interested in seeing if Ellis can make as a smooth a transition from catching to managing as Stephen Vogt did for the division rival Guardians.

Neither Lombard or Ellis have ever crossed paths with Chicago GM Chris Getz as a teammate or co-worker, nor were Lombard or Ellis ever former members of the White Sox organization.  This fits with Getz’s prior statement that the White Sox were looking to bring in a new voice as the club’s next manager, though interim manager Grady Sizemore would receive some consideration.

Beyond these names, former Angels manager Phil Nevin, Rangers associate manager Will Venable, and Cardinals bench coach Daniel Descalso are known to be on Chicago’s list of candidates.  While the Sox still want to talk to some coaches on teams currently playing in the postseason, some preliminary culling has already started to take place, as Fegan writes that the White Sox have already eliminated some candidates from consideration.  A source tells Fegan that former Marlins manager Skip Schumaker is “still alive” in the search, which is no surprise given that Schumaker has long been viewed as a preferred choice for the job.

Luis Arraez Undergoes Thumb Surgery

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Luis Arraez had surgery today to repair a torn ligament in his thumb. The three-time All-Star announced the news himself on X, while Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase added that the Padres expect to have him back at full health in time for spring training.

Arraez had been playing through the pain since mid-June, when he tore a ligament in his left thumb on a slide into third base. He sat out the All-Star Game to rest the injured digit but otherwise played in 70 of the Padres’ final 78 games and all seven of their postseason contests. However, he knew surgery would be necessary if he was going to make a proper recovery, and once the Padres were eliminated from the playoffs, he went under the knife.

With an NL-best .314 batting average, Arraez claimed his third consecutive batting title this season, but his overall numbers weren’t nearly as impressive as they’ve been in the recent past. After putting up an .829 OPS and 130 wRC+ from 2022 to ’23, Arraez produced a .739 OPS and 109 wRC+ in 2024. Those are still above-average numbers, but that level of offense isn’t great coming from a poor defensive first baseman/terrible defensive second baseman. And unfortunately, Arraez can’t blame all of his struggles on his thumb; he hit .310 with a 106 wRC+ before the injury and .319 with a 113 wRC+ after. At the same time, that’s not to say the torn ligament didn’t have any effect. His Statcast expected wOBA on contact fell from .335 before the injury to .312 afterward. It’s possible the pain from the injury prevented him from hitting the ball quite as hard.

Despite his down year, Arraez should be one of the highest-paid arbitration-eligible players next season, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $14.6MM salary for the infielder in 2025. It’s his final year of team control, so he’ll look to get back to full strength and perform more like his 2022-23 self, either to earn a bigger contract in free agency or an extension from San Diego. The Padres will hope for the same, since the best version of Arraez can be an excellent table-setter atop the lineup in front of hitters like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill.

MLBTR Podcast: Changes In Minnesota, Cubs’ Prospect Depth, And Possibilities For The O’s

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • With Jed Hoyer in the last year of his contract, how aggressive will the Cubs be this offseason? Also, with so many top 100 prospects nearing the majors, how will that impact their offseason decisions? (10:10)
  • What is the feeling about the Orioles possible spending this offseason? Is there a sense of what could happen or is more wait-and-see in the inside baseball world? (26:55)
  • What do the Rangers need to do in this offseason in order to be competitive next year.  Any specific players they need to target? (32:45)
  • Willson Contreras seems like a logical fit for the Blue Jays if the Cardinals decide to move him. Only problem might be the return since the Cardinals want to shed money. Would this be likely? (34:55)
  • The Padres have spent significant resources to build its current roster, but the World Series title continues to elude them. With potential payroll issues looming, how do they maintain their success for 2025 and beyond? They have a good lineup and great bullpen, but how do they avoid being worse in 2025? (39:50)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Previewing FA Starting Pitchers, TV Deals, And Potential Spending Teams – listen here
  • Buster Posey Takes Over In SF And The Cardinals’ Succession Plan – listen here
  • Final Days In Oakland, The Surging Tigers, And If The Nats Will Pursue Juan Soto – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Quick Hits: Bieber, Niebla, Shildt, Cardinals

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Shane Bieber’s season was ended by a Tommy John surgery back in April, and he’ll now head into free agency with this big question mark attached to his health.  It could be that Bieber ends up sticking with the Guardians, as Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer thinks “there’s interest on both sides” about a new contract.  Since Bieber won’t be able to return to a big league mound until probably June or July, a new deal might just involve one guaranteed season with some type of option for the 2026 season, or potentially a two-year guarantee with a small salary in 2025 and then the majority of the money slated for 2026 when Bieber will presumably be able to complete a full season.

Similar contracts have emerged in the past for pitchers coming off major surgeries and facing reduced or non-existent workloads in the first year of the two-year pacts, and the reduced cost of such a trade has particular appeal for a lower-payroll team like the Guardians.  A two-year guarantee would keep Bieber from entering free agency again until he is about to enter his age-32 season, though he might want to lock in some more guaranteed security now while he is still dealing with the uncertainty of his TJ rehab.  From a baseball perspective, Bieber surely would be open to staying in a familiar environment and playing for another winning team, while bringing back Bieber for even a half-season could be a help for a very unsettled Guards rotation.

More from around the baseball world…

  • Padres pitching coach Ruben Niebla’s contract is up now that the season is over, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes.  It isn’t known if there have been any talks between the two sides, but Acee feels an extension “should be a no-brainer” given how well the Padres’ staff has performed over Niebla’s three seasons on the job.  San Diego pitchers have a combined 3.80 ERA over the 2022-24 seasons, ranking ninth in baseball in that span. Manager Mike Shildt is also now entering a walk year since 2025 is the last season of his initial two-year contract, and surely the Padres will also look to give the skipper more security in the wake of his very successful inaugural campaign with the club.
  • The Cardinals are putting a renewed focus on player development in what might be a rebuilding year in 2025, but some fresh steps were already taken this past year.  Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the Cards led all four minor league levels in innings pitched by starting pitchers, which was a stated goal for the organization since the simple idea was the pitching prospects could learn just from working deeper into games.  As explained by Cards pitching coach Dusty Blake, “you find out that once you get to pitch #80, it’s hard for you to get your breaking stuff down, so here is the adjustment to make sure if you’ve got to beat this guy a third time.”  If a pitcher isn’t taken out to manage innings or to avoid a jam, “there are ancillary pieces that you continue to learn and adapt with workload.  You find out about yourself as you experience some fatigue.  How do you keep competing and making pitches to give you that best chance?”  Another wrinkle is that getting used to longer outings might help Cardinals youngsters adjust to the future should the league institutes a rule about a minimum number of innings pitched or batters faced in a game.

Luis Arraez Interested In Extension With Padres

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After being traded for the second time in as many years back in May when he was acquired by the Padres in a deal that sent a four-player package back to Miami, Luis Arraez told reporters (including MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell) that he’s looking forward to the stability of knowing where he’s going to play next year. Not only that, Arraez even expressed interest in a longer-term deal to keep him in San Diego beyond the end of the 2025 season, when he’s scheduled to reach free agency for the first time.

“It means a lot of good things,” Arraez said, as relayed by Cassavell. “If they want to sign me, I want to stay here. This is business. I understand the business. But I hope I stay here for a long time.”

Arraez is in for a healthy payday this winter, as MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $14.6MM salary for the infielder in his final trip through arbitration. It’s a hefty price to pay for Arraez unique but somewhat limited skill set. Arraez has never provided much defensive value even when he primarily played second base with the Twins and Marlins. That changed upon Arraez’s arrival in San Diego, as the Padres used him at the keystone in just nine games while otherwise splitting his time between first base (where he profiles as a below average defender) and DH.

Meanwhile, Arraez’s elite contact is held back by lackluster plate discipline and a lack of power. While Arraez just won his third consecutive batting title with an excellent .314 average, he was just 9% better than the league average hitter by wRC+ thanks to a paltry 3.6% walk rate and a minuscule .078 ISO that leaves him with the third-lowest power production among all qualified hitters this year. An injury could help explain Arraez’s downturn in production after back-to-back 130 wRC+ seasons in 2022 and ’23, however: the infielder told reporters (including Cassavell) that he’s been playing through a thumb injury this year and is set to undergo an MRI to further explore the situation now that the Padres’ season has come to a close.

If Arraez would be open to a long-term deal at a lower average annual value than the $14.6MM figure he’s currently projected to earn via arbitration this winter, it’s not hard to imagine the Padres having incentive to put a deal together. After all, RosterResource projects the club for a luxury tax payroll just over $243MM in 2025, around $2MM above the lowest tax threshold of $241MM. Meanwhile, the club’s actual payroll is projected for just over $207MM, an increase of nearly $50MM over 2024’s $169MM figure. While specifics of the club’s payroll plans for 2025 are not yet clear, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the Padres are “committed” to a payroll closer to their 2024 figure than 2023, when they ran an estimated payroll of $257 per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

With needs in the starting rotation and outfield that will have to be addressed this winter, San Diego brass may wind up needing to get creative in order to afford the additions necessary this winter. Extending Arraez could be one such creative route to a lower payroll, and it’s one the Padres have used under A.J. Preller in the past. Lefty Wandy Peralta and right-hander Yu Darvish are two of the most notable recent examples of players who were signed or extended on contracts designed to mitigate their luxury tax impact, and it’s even possible an Arraez extension could be somewhat back-loaded in order to free up more dollars for the 2024 team.

Of course, such an arrangement would require the Padres to have Arraez in their plans beyond the 2025 season. It’s not yet clear if Arraez’s desire to remain in San Diego beyond the life of his club control is reciprocated by club brass, though The Athletic’s Dennis Lin did highlight Arraez recently as an “obvious” extension candidate for the club and emphasized San Diego’s respect for the 27-year-old’s unique skill set. There would surely be other obstacles to workaround in order to make a long-term deal into reality even if the interest is mutual, of course, not least of which would be Arraez’s status as one of the league’s most difficult to value players.

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