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Blue Jays Showed “Strong Interest” In Gleyber Torres

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The Blue Jays showed “strong interest” in second baseman Gleyber Torres early in his free agency, per a report from Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Petzold goes on to report that the Giants, Reds, and Guardians were among the teams to show interest in Torres before he signed with the Tigers. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe previously reported that the Red Sox showed interest in the infielder but never reached the point of making a formal offer, and Petzold confirms that interest.

The Blue Jays made plenty of sense as a speculative fit for Torres early in the winter, and he was even loosely connected to them earlier this winter. After losing Matt Chapman in free agency last winter and dealing away both Justin Turner and Isaiah Kiner-Falefa over the summer, the Jays entered the winter in need of infield help. In a thin market for infielders, Torres was among the better options not expected to command a long-term, nine-figure contract. In fact, Petzold notes that Torres emphasized to his agent this winter that he wasn’t interested in anything more than a strict one-year contract, even eschewing the possibility of a two-year deal with an opt-out clause.

Petzold adds that Torres took this stance in hopes of betting on himself and landing the aforementioned nine-figure deal he was sure to be locked out of this winter following an up-and-down platform season that saw him finish with a 104 wRC+ and just 1.7 fWAR. That desire for a one-year deal likely made him an especially attractive target for a Blue Jays team that not only faces plenty of uncertainty following the 2025 season thanks to the impending free agency of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. but also thanks to the club’s group of young infielders who could theoretically play their way into regular roles in the future.

It’s not clear if the Jays’ reported interest in Torres persisted even after they traded for second baseman Andrés Giménez earlier this winter. Even if it had, though, Torres apparent preference for remaining at second base likely would have created a major obstacle for the sides, likely leaving Toronto in a position where they’d need to deal shortstop Bo Bichette and move Giménez to short in order to open up the keystone for Torres. While Bichette is coming off an even more difficult season (71 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR) than Torres’s 2024 campaign, Bichette had been a consistent four-to-five win player throughout his career prior to getting bit by the injury bug last year and would be a difficult player for the Jays to part with unless they got a hefty package in return.

As for the other reported suitors for Torres’s services, the Guardians likely only became a fit for Torres after trading Giménez to Toronto. Juan Brito, Gabriel Arias, and Daniel Schneemann currently figure to split time at the keystone for Cleveland in Giménez’s absence, but a clear everyday player like Torres would be a definitive upgrade over that timeshare between youngsters. What’s more, moving on from Giménez and his hefty $106.5MM contract likely helped free up payroll that would make signing a player of Torres’s caliber possible even for the low-budget Guardians. With Torres now off the market and headed to a division rival, it’s entirely feasible that the Guardians could now pivot to another second base option available in free agency like Jorge Polanco or Whit Merrifield.

The Reds, by contrast, are a somewhat surprising suitor for Torres. The club has plenty of infield options available already, with Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain currently locking up the middle infield while some combination of Noelvi Marte, Jeimer Candelario, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand handle the infield corners. Adding a pure second baseman who lacks positional versatility like Torres would’ve complicated matters, though it’s certainly possible to squeeze him in by shifting McLain over to the hot corner, utilizing Candelario at first base, and leaving Encarnacion-Strand and Marte to fight for plate appearances at DH or in a part-time role.

Given the club’s dreadful 87 wRC+ overall last year, even Torres’s diminished results from 2024 would provide the Reds with a substantial boost to their lineup. That boost may have made figuring out a way to squeeze Torres into the lineup worth doing, but the Reds appear to have already more or less maxed out their payroll and seem unlikely to have been able to match the $15MM salary Detroit offered the infielder. The Giants are another reported suitor whose interest in Torres comes with complications, particularly given the fact that the club landed shortstop Willy Adames on the eve of the Winter Meetings. It’s possible that San Francisco’s interest in Torres predated their deal with Adames, though it’s also feasible the club was willing to sign both players and push Tyler Fitzgerald into a utility role entering the season.

As for the Red Sox, the club certainly made sense as a fit for Torres given their wide open second base situation. Boston acquired Vaughn Grissom from the Braves last winter in hopes that he could lock up the position, but injuries and ineffectiveness led to something of a lost season in 2024. That leaves the position without a clear incumbent headed into 2025, with Grissom, David Hamilton, and top prospect Kristian Campbell among the internal options. Adding Torres to the mix would’ve eased the pressure on Campbell to perform immediately upon reaching the majors while providing an upgrade over Grissom and Hamilton who bats from the right side to help balance the club’s lefty-heavy lineup. Boston is also known to have some level of interest in top free agent infielder Alex Bregman, but it’s possible that their reported interest in Torres could signal a willingness to sign a hitter closer to the middle of the free agent market like Ha-Seong Kim.

Giants Considering Pete Alonso

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The Giants already made one big infield addition by signing Willy Adames, and kept Matt Chapman off the free agent market entirely by signing the third baseman to a six-year, $151MM extension back in September.  With the Giants still weighing big moves, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that “Pete Alonso is on their radar” as a significant upgrade to the first base/DH mix.

As it stands, LaMonte Wade Jr. will be getting the bulk of first base at-bats, as the left-handed hitting side of what will likely be a platoon situation.  That said, reports have suggested San Francisco is open to moving Wade, and that the Giants had some interest in signing Paul Goldschmidt before Goldschmidt landed with the Yankees.  Top prospect Bryce Eldridge is viewed as the long-term answer at first base, and with Eldridge making his Triple-A debut in 2024, a shorter-term signing like Goldschmidt made sense as a bridge at the position.

Adding Alonso would only somewhat change that direction.  If Alonso took over the everyday first base role, Wade could be shifted into the part-time DH role, and Wade is a free agent next winter so he might not remain part of the Giants’ future plans.  Eldridge played some outfield in 2023 but is largely viewed as a first baseman going forward, so he and Alonso could form a powerful first base/DH combo even if such an arrangement would lock down both positions for years to come.

There’s also a possibility that Eldridge could become a big trade chip the Giants can dangle to address other needs, or that Alonso wouldn’t necessarily be a long-term addition.  MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand hears from various executives around the league that Alonso’s next contract might involve an opt-out clause or two, thus allowing Alonso to re-enter the market potentially as early as the 2025-26 offseason.  Alonso’s agent Scott Boras has included such opt-out provisions in several of his clients’ deals in recent years, in some cases creating an extra level of flexibility for teams and for players coming off less-than-ideal platform years.

It could be argued Alonso is coming off two relative down years, as he has a solid but unspectacular 121 wRC+ since the start of the 2023 season.  The first baseman slugged 80 homers and hit .229/.324/.480 in 1353 plate appearances over that span, while providing little value with his glove or on the basepaths.  Clubs are increasingly wary about committing big money to first base-only players in general, and Alonso’s increasingly homer-heavy approach raises questions about his overall offensive value.

Oracle Park may not exactly be the best ballpark for a right-handed hitting slugger to re-establish his value, though Alonso’s options may be increasingly limited.  The Yankees (Goldschmidt), Astros (Christian Walker), Diamondbacks (Josh Naylor), and Nationals (Nathaniel Lowe) have all addressed their needs at first base.  MLBTR’s Leo Morgenstern recently looked at Alonso’s market and cited the Giants along with the Reds, Tigers, Blue Jays, as possible darkhorse candidates for the slugger, along with the more obvious possibility that Alonso just re-signs with the Mets.

Indeed, most of the executives who spoke with Feinsand “believe an Alonso/Mets reunion is inevitable,” even if such a deal involves opt-out clauses.  The Mets remain linked to both Alonso and Alex Bregman, leaving the team with an interesting choice of top-tier corner infielders since Mark Vientos can play first or third base depending on who is signed.  (Or, it isn’t entirely out of the question that the aggressive Mets could sign both Bregman and Alonso, with Vientos moving to DH.)  Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that “a sizable gap” remains between Alonso and the Mets in their current negotiations.

Because both Adames and Alonso rejected qualifying offers, the Giants would have to surrender two more draft picks and another $1MM in international bonus pool money if they brought Alonso into the fold to join their new shortstop.  This might not necessarily be an obstacle since the Giants already gave up two picks and $1MM to sign Chapman and Blake Snell (two other qualified free agents) last offseason.  RosterResource estimates San Francisco for roughly a $167.1MM payroll and $207.5MM luxury tax number in 2025, so adding Alonso is feasible even if it remains unclear how much ownership is willing to spend on next year’s roster.

The Giants’ pursuit of Corbin Burnes signaled that the club was willing to make another splurge, though Slusser notes that they didn’t offer Burnes more than the $210MM over six years than the righty received from the Diamondbacks.  Indeed, Slusser frames the Giants’ courtship of Burnes as fairly limited, writing that “San Francisco’s pursuit never advanced much beyond initial talks at the general manager meetings…and an offer made at that point did not get things off the ground.”

President of baseball operations Buster Posey addressed the Giants’ next steps in a text to The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly, with Posey writing “We believe in our young arms, and feel like they are in a position to take some big steps forward.  [We] will continue to look on the offensive side for players that give us a chance to score runs in multiple ways.”

Corbin Burnes Reportedly Seeking $245MM+

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Corbin Burnes is the remaining headliner of the free agent class. The top starting pitcher is still unsigned despite the generally robust and quick-moving rotation market.

Most of the recent chatter regarding Burnes has centered on some combination of the Blue Jays, Giants, Red Sox and Orioles (albeit to a lesser extent in Baltimore’s case). Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes that San Francisco has had a standing offer on the table, though he notes that the Giants could elect to move on to other targets if there continues to be no resolution on Burnes’ part.

Terms of San Francisco’s proposal are not clear. However, Feinsand reports that the former Cy Young winner is looking for a deal that would at least match the $245MM guarantee which Stephen Strasburg received from the Nationals over the 2019-20 offseason. (The net present value of Strasburg’s contract actually checked in around $229MM after accounting for deferrals.) The pre-deferral guarantee is the third-largest pitching investment in MLB history, trailing Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325MM contract with the Dodgers and the $324MM Gerrit Cole deal with the Yankees.

It’s unsurprising that Burnes and agent Scott Boras are shooting for Strasburg money in this market. MLBTR predicted Burnes to land seven years and $200MM in early November. Essentially every starter who has signed so far has equalled or beaten those (and most other) predictions. Max Fried was the biggest beneficiary. He landed an eight-year, $218MM contract at the Winter Meetings. That beat MLBTR’s prediction by two years and $62MM. Fried landed an extra season and $43MM than Aaron Nola received last winter.

Virtually every prognostication had Burnes above Fried. That makes something in the $220MM range feel like the former’s floor. Creating a notable separation would push Burnes close to or beyond Strasburg money. Burnes is nine months younger than Fried. He hasn’t had any injuries of note. That differentiates him from Fried, who missed three months in 2023 because of a muscular flexor strain in his forearm. Burnes has also reached bigger heights, winning the National League ERA title and Cy Young in 2022.

The one question has been a recent dip in swing-and-miss. Burnes fanned upwards of 35% of batters faced between 2020-21. That dropped to roughly 30% in 2022. It has continued to trend down over the past two seasons, falling to a slightly above-average 23.1% rate this year. Even the “diminished” strikeout rate essentially matched Fried’s 23.2% rate, though, so Burnes isn’t at a disadvantage in that regard.

That’ll be weighed against the question of which teams still have the willingness to offer a deal well north of $200MM. The Yankees would’ve been an obvious Burnes suitor if they hadn’t landed Fried. They’re probably out of the mix now. The Mets seem unlikely to make a massive commitment to a starting pitcher. The Sox have already acquired Garrett Crochet and agreed to terms with Walker Buehler on a one-year deal, adding significant upside to their rotation. They might have the payroll room to remain involved on Burnes, but they’re no longer facing the same sense of urgency to add an impact arm.

San Francisco might offer the best blend of spending capacity and need for an ace. Logan Webb is a legitimate #1, but the Giants haven’t replaced the production they lost when Blake Snell walked. Beyond Webb, San Francisco’s rotation consists of upside plays with questions about their durability and/or performance track records (i.e. Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison, Hayden Birdsong).

The Giants have made two nine-figure investments in recent months. They extended Matt Chapman for $151MM in September before adding Willy Adames on a seven-year, $182MM free agent deal. RosterResource calculates their luxury tax number at approximately $208MM, which puts them around $33MM shy of the base threshold. Their actual salary commitments sit around $167MM. That puts them almost $40MM below last year’s spending level. It’s not clear if ownership is willing to again push beyond $200MM in Opening Day payroll, but they could theoretically add Adames and Burnes without a significant spike in relative spending.

The Giants relinquished their second- and fifth-highest draft picks and $1MM from their ’26 international amateur bonus pool to sign Adames. They’d surrender their third- and sixth-highest selections and another $500K from the international pool if they were to land Burnes, who declined a qualifying offer from Baltimore.

Ehire Adrianza Announces Retirement

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Veteran utilityman Ehire Adrianza has decided to retire after 12 Major League seasons.  The 35-year-old Adrianza made the official announcement on his Instagram page, thanking the many people who contributed to his success.

“This journey has been incredibly challenging, filled with ups and downs, but every step along the way has been a blessing that I cherish immensely,” Adrianza said.  “Since my childhood, I dreamed of the possibility of winning a World Series, a goal that once seemed so distant and almost unattainable.  However, thanks to my effort, dedication, and the unwavering support of each one of you, that dream has become a reality.  I still find it hard to believe that I have had the honor of playing more than a decade in the Major Leagues.  I never imagined I would achieve so much, and it’s astonishing to reflect on this experience.”

Adrianza has been part of six different organizations over his career, and he saw big league action in the form of 624 games with the Giants, Twins, Nationals, Braves, and Angels from 2013-24.  His long career saw Adrianza play roles on World Series-winning teams in San Francisco (in 2014) and Atlanta (2021), with Adrianza getting 10 pinch-hit at-bats during the Braves’ postseason run.

Hitting .237/.307/.352 in 1578 career plate appearances, Adrianza was able to consistently latch onto MLB rosters due to his ability to play almost anywhere on the diamond.  He made at least 16 career starts at six different positions (all four infield positions plus the two corner outfield slots) while also making a few cameos as a center fielder and pitcher.  The Outs Above Average and UZR/150 metrics gave Adrianza plus grades over his career at shortstop and third base, his two most frequent positions.

Adrianza was usually a part-timer or bench player who was only pressed into more regular duty in the event of an injury, though this happened often enough that he was a useful player to have on hand.  His 114 games with Minnesota in 2018 was a career high, followed by his 109 games with the Braves in 2021.  In the latter season, his ability to come off the bench and make the odd spot start made him a valuable member of an Atlanta team that had to overcome some significant injuries on its way to the championship.

We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Adrianza on a fine career, and we wish him all the best in the next phase of his life.

Giants Re-Sign Raymond Burgos To Minors Contract

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The Giants signed Raymond Burgos to a new minor league contract earlier this month, as per the left-hander’s MLB.com profile page.  Burgos elected minor league free agency after the season, but he’ll now return for what will be his third season in San Francisco’s organization.

An 18th-round pick for Cleveland in the 2016 draft, Burgos didn’t make his pro debut until 2018 due to Tommy John surgery.  He entered minor league free agency after the 2022 campaign and caught on with the Giants for the first time that winter.  The Giants parted ways with the southpaw last fall and Burgos caught on with a Mexican League team, only to rejoin the Giants on a new minors deal last April.

This reunion led to Burgos’ first and only appearance at the big league level.  The 26-year-old left-hander allowed a run on three hits in his lone inning of relief work in San Francisco’s 5-4 win over the Cubs.  Soon after that debut appearance, the Giants designated Burgos for assignment and then outrighted him off their 40-man roster.

Working mostly as a reliever during his career in the minors, Burgos has posted solid numbers, including a 3.38 ERA, 22% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate in 48 Triple-A innings.  Burgos’ lack of standout strikeout ability could be hampering his path to the bigs, but he has been consistently effective at retiring same-sided batters.  Taylor Rogers and Erik Miller are slated to be the top left-handers out of the Giants’ bullpen, and it makes sense that the team would add to this depth (for at least the Triple-A level) with a known quantity in Burgos.

Rangers Met With Roki Sasaki, Giants “Believed To Have Met” With Sasaki As Well

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Roki Sasaki won’t be eligible to officially sign with an MLB organization until mid-January, but that hasn’t stopped him from making headlines in December. Last week, it was reported that the NPB phenom had met with at least three MLB teams: the Yankees, Mets, and Cubs. Today, Rangers president of baseball operations Chris Young confirmed that representatives from his club met with Sasaki last week (per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). Meanwhile, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports the Giants are “believed to have met” with Sasaki and his representatives.

It comes as no surprise that both teams are interested in Sasaki. The Giants could use more starting pitching, and they’re likely to add at least one starter this offseason, whether it’s Sasaki or someone else. The Rangers, on the other hand, already have a full rotation, but regardless, Sasaki is the kind of player any team would make room for. The two-time NPB All-Star is widely considered one of the most promising young pitchers in the world, and his earning potential is capped by the rules of international amateur free agency. As of right now, Texas can’t pay him any more than a $6,261,600 bonus, while San Francisco can’t offer him more than a $5,146,200 bonus.

The Rangers have long had an eye on Sasaki. At the beginning of the 2024 season, they were one of eight teams that reportedly sent representatives to watch Sasaki pitch in Japan. One can also understand why Sasaki would be interested in joining their club. Not only are the Rangers recent World Series winners, but they have been one of the most active teams this offseason on both the trade and free agent markets. Furthermore, Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe recently mentioned that Sasaki grew up “idolizing” numerous Japanese pitchers who made the jump from NPB to MLB. The first example Wolfe named was Yu Darvish, who signed with the Rangers when he first arrived stateside in 2012. Evan Grant points out that a pair of front office executives who were “key” in signing Darvish, assistant general manager Josh Boyd and Pacific Rim Operations Director Joe Furukawa, are still working in the organization.

As for the Giants, POBO Buster Posey has been particularly vocal about his interest in Sasaki. Speaking at the Winter Meetings, he told reporters (including Maria Guardado of MLB.com), “We’d be over the moon to add a guy like that.” While Posey only spoke of Sasaki’s talent, one has to presume he’s also captivated by the price tag. The Giants have been closely linked to free agent Corbin Burnes this winter. But Burnes is presumably looking to sign a contract worth well over $200MM. According to Susan Slusser, there are questions about whether or not ownership will be willing to foot that bill. In Sasaki, the Giants could add a top-of-the-rotation starter for a fraction of the market price.

From Sasaki’s point of view, it’s worth noting that San Francisco is much closer to Japan (and has a bigger Japanese population) than New York, Chicago, or Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington. Neither Sasaki nor Wolfe has suggested the pitcher has a geographic preference for where he signs, but Giants general manager Zack Minasian has expressed hope that San Francisco’s relative proximity to Japan will make “a big difference” (per Guardado). Minasian also mentioned the pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park as a potential draw. After all, Sasaki is used to pitching in a very different offensive environment – runs are harder to come by in NPB. What’s more, he is presumably looking to put up numbers that are as impressive as possible. Six years in the future, those numbers will help him cash in big as an unrestricted free agent.

Ultimately, we still know very little about what Sasaki’s thinking or where he might end up. The Dodgers and, to a lesser extent, the Padres are frequently cited as the front-runners to sign him, but it’s not for nothing that he has met with so many other teams. (Nor is it clear if he has met with either the Dodgers or Padres yet.) Slusser identifies the Diamondbacks as another NL West suitor for his services, though it’s unclear if he has met with anyone from the team. Meanwhile, the Phillies are the only club we know for certain has not met with Sasaki. Last week, POBO Dave Dombrowski revealed that although the Phillies would love to speak with Sasaki, they have not been invited to do so.

Nine Teams Exceeded Luxury Tax Threshold In 2024

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Major League Baseball finalized its luxury tax calculations for 2024. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers was first to report the list of payors, while Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports the details. A record nine teams surpassed the $237MM competitive balance tax threshold. In a separate post, The Associated Press lists the finalized CBT numbers for all 30 teams.

The payments are as follows:

  • Dodgers: $103MM
  • Mets: $97.1MM
  • Yankees: $62.5MM
  • Phillies: $14.4MM
  • Braves: $14MM
  • Rangers: $10.8MM
  • Astros: $6.5MM
  • Giants: $2.4MM
  • Cubs: $570K

Teams pay escalating penalties for exceeding the threshold in consecutive seasons. The Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Phillies have all paid the tax in at least three straight years — subjecting them to the highest escalator fees. Texas and Atlanta are second-time payors. Houston, San Francisco, and the Cubs did not exceed the threshold in 2023 and are marked as first-time payors.

The Dodgers ($353MM), Mets ($348MM), and Yankees ($316MM) all had CBT numbers above $277MM, which marked the third tax bracket. All three teams will see their first-round pick in the 2025 draft dropped by 10 spots. Considering they each advanced at least as far as the LCS and the Dodgers won the World Series, those clubs won’t have any regrets about that penalty. Atlanta narrowly stayed below the $277MM threshold to avoid any impact on their draft.

Teams that paid the CBT are entitled to the lowest level of compensation for losing free agents who declined a qualifying offer. They receive a draft choice after the fourth round for each qualified free agent who walks. They’re charged the heaviest penalty — their second- and fifth-highest picks in 2025 and $1MM from their ’26 international bonus pool — for signing a qualified free agent from another team.

The Mets (Juan Soto), Yankees (Max Fried), Giants (Willy Adames), and Astros (Christian Walker) have already signed or agreed to terms with qualified free agents. The Mets (Luis Severino), Yankees (Soto), and Braves (Fried) have lost qualified free agents. Houston is likely to see Alex Bregman walk. The Mets (Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea) and Dodgers (Teoscar Hernández) still have unsigned qualified free agents of their own.

The top eight luxury payors were all clearly above the base threshold, while the three biggest spenders blew beyond every surcharge marker. The only source of CBT intrigue late in the season concerned the Cubs and Blue Jays, both of whom were hovering right around the tax line.

When it became clear that neither team would make the playoffs, they each attempted to dip below $237MM by shedding money via waivers. The Cubs were unsuccessful and landed around $239.9MM; Toronto dropped just below $234MM. The tax impact for the Cubs is negligible — a $570K bill is less than the cost of one player on a league minimum salary — but it places a higher penalty for signing qualified free agents and could incentivize them to stay under the threshold in 2025 to reset their status. Six of the nine payors made the postseason. Texas, San Francisco, and Chicago were the exceptions.

Last year, a then-record eight teams surpassed the CBT threshold. The Padres are the only team that was above the line in 2023 and got below it this year. San Diego finished with an approximate $228MM mark that ranked 11th in the majors — behind the nine payors and the Blue Jays. The Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, and Angels were the other teams above the median in payroll. On the other side of the equation, the five bottom spenders were as follows: Athletics ($84MM), Rays ($107MM), Tigers ($110MM), Marlins ($122MM), and Pirates ($123MM).

The teams that exceeded the threshold have until January 21 to pay MLB. The first $3.5MM will be used to fund player benefits. Half the remaining money goes to players’ retirement accounts, while the other half is used for revenue sharing distribution from MLB to teams. Next year’s base threshold climbs to $241MM.

MLBTR Podcast: Winter Meetings Recap

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Giants Notes: Payroll, Goldschmidt, Wade

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It was reported last month that the Giants were looking to scale back payroll relative to 2024 levels, but that may no longer be the case. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports reports that the club initially had planned on focusing more on player development in 2025 while taking a step back in terms of building the major league roster, but now seems to have changed course.

That tracks with the club’s behavior in recent weeks. They just signed shortstop Willy Adames to a seven-year, $182MM deal and are reportedly involved on free agent right-hander Corbin Burnes, who is likely to get an even bigger deal than Adames. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Burnes for $200MM over seven years, but basically every pitcher has been beating expectations this winter. Max Fried was predicted for $156MM over six years, notably below the prediction for Burnes, but got to $218MM over eight years. As such, it’s fair to expect Burnes to beat Fried’s guarantee by some margin.

If the Giants are ultimately successful in signing Burnes, it would put them pretty close to the competitive balance tax line. RosterResource projects their 2025 number at $208MM right now, which is $33MM below next year’s $241MM base threshold. The Giants crossed the CBT line in 2024 and the planned pay cut likely would have seen them stay below the line in 2025, but a Burnes deal would bridge most of that gap with still other moves likely to follow. In terms of pure dollars, they’re projected for $167MM next year, almost $40MM below their 2024 spending.

The pivot to a more aggressive winter bodes well for their chances in the upcoming season. Adames fills a clear area of need and Burnes would be a huge rotation upgrade if it comes together. In addition to the financial costs of those deals, there would be long-term consequences in terms of draft capabilities. The Giants gave up two picks in 2024, one each for signing Blake Snell and Matt Chapman, since each guy had rejected a qualifying offer. Since the Giants paid the tax in 2024, the penalties are higher this winter. Signing Adames means forfeiting $1MM of international bonus pool space and two picks, their second- and fifth-highest choices in 2025. Like Adames, Burnes also rejected a qualifying offer, which would mean forfeiting another $1MM in pool space and another two picks.

Given that the club’s plan was initially going to involve player development, that’s a notable part of the pivot. However, it’s possible that the Giants simply want to make something happen now, more so than in the future. Their stunning 2021 campaign is their only winning season of the past eight years, so perhaps there’s an appetite to get over the hump sooner rather than later. New president of baseball operations Buster Posey spoke in his introductory press conference about the club getting back into the memory-making business, which has seemingly spurred the club towards shopping at or near the top of free agency.

Whether the Burnes deal can come together or not, the club will also have to consider other moves. In a separate column, Pavlovic notes that veteran first baseman Paul Goldschmidt “has a lot of fans in the organization.” Separately, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic suggests that Posey might be willing to sign veterans to short-term deals, floating Goldschmidt as a possibility alongside Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

Goldschmidt, 37, isn’t too far removed from winning National League Most Valuable Player in 2022 but his performance has declined in the past two years. He slashed .317/.404/.578 for a 175 wRC+ in his MVP season but he fell in 2023 and dropped even further this year. His 2024 batting line finished at .245/.302/.414 for a 100 wRC+, indicating he was exactly league average. His 7.2% walk rate and 26.5% strikeout rate were both career worsts, outside of his 2011 debut.

Whether he can bounce back in 2025 or not is a matter for debate. His age and recent decline don’t bode especially well, but there is arguably some confidence to be found in his strong finish this year. He hit just .230/.291/.373 in the first half of 2024 for an 87 wRC+ but then .271/.319/.480 in the second half for a 120 wRC+.

The Giants don’t strictly have a need at first base, with LaMonte Wade Jr. currently projected as their primary option there. However, they don’t have a clear everyday designated hitter at the moment. Jorge Soler and Michael Conforto got the most DH appearances in 2024 but Soler is now and Angel and Conforto a Dodger. Wilmer Flores could be in the mix there but he was dreadful in 2024 while battling knee problems and it’s unclear how much the Giants expect from him in 2025.

With the current roster construction, using the DH for some outfield overflow might make sense. The club has Heliot Ramos, Jung Hoo Lee and Mike Yastrzemski likely in three outfield spots but with Grant McCray, Jerar Encarnación, Luis Matos, Marco Luciano and others on the roster. Having Goldschmidt and Wade sharing the DH spot and first base would make it hard to find extra at-bats for that group, though perhaps the Giants are willing to live with that in order to take a shot on Goldschmidt for his veteran leadership. He also wouldn’t be able to command a lengthy deal on account of his age and recent performance. MLBTR predicted him for a one-year pact with a $15MM guarantee at the start of the offseason.

There’s also the possibility of signing Goldschmidt and then making Wade available in trades. It was reported last month that Wade and Yastrzemski were indeed available, as well as some other players, though it’s unclear if the club’s recent change in plans has altered the availability of such players.

Wade were surely draw interest from other clubs if the Giants wanted to move him. He doesn’t provide the pop that clubs usually look to get from a first baseman, but he gets on base and isn’t too expensive. Over the past two years, he has drawn a walk in 15% of his 920 plate appearances. Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Kyle Schwarber were the only big leaguers with at least 900 plate appearances and better walk rates in that time. Wade only hit 25 home runs over those two seasons but his .258/.376/.401 batting line still translated to a strong 120 wRC+.

For his career, Wade has notable platoon splits, with a 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers and just a 64 wRC+ against lefties. He was much better against southpaws in 2024, though in a tiny sample of just 43 plate appearances. There are limits in his profile but MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a modest $4.7MM salary in his final year of club control.

Giants Re-Sign Ethan Small, Kai-Wei Teng To Minor League Deals

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The Giants brought back pitchers Ethan Small and Kai-Wei Teng on minor league contracts last month (h/t to Baseball America’s Matt Eddy). San Francisco had dropped both players from the 40-man roster at the non-tender deadline.

Neither player had been eligible for arbitration. The non-tender deadline allowed the Giants to cut them both loose before circling back with minor league offers. They’ll keep both in the organization without carrying them on the 40-man roster.

Small, a former Milwaukee first-round pick, landed with the Giants in a DFA trade in February. The 27-year-old southpaw spent most of the season on the injured list. He didn’t pitch in the big leagues with San Francisco. Small was limited to 13 minor league innings over three levels. His major league résumé consists of four MLB appearances in Milwaukee between 2022-23. During his most recent healthy year in the minors, he turned in a 3.18 ERA through 51 Triple-A frames two seasons ago.

Teng, 26, made his first four MLB appearances this year. He allowed 12 runs over 11 innings. The Taiwanese righty had a terrible ’24 season in Triple-A as well. Teng allowed nearly a run per inning across 75 1/3 frames. The 6’4″ righty posted strong strikeout and ground-ball numbers in the low minors but has struggled with his command throughout his career.

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