Mutual Interest Between Dodgers, Madison Bumgarner
Dec. 13: There’s mutual interest between Bumgarner and the Dodgers, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports. The Dodgers took some time at this week’s Winter Meetings to sit down with Bumgarner’s agents.
Dec. 10: After missing on top pitching target Gerrit Cole, the Dodgers will pursue southpaw Madison Bumgarner, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Whether or not a deal gets done, this represents quite the turn of events for the long-time Giants ace.
MadBum is permanently etched into the history of the San Francisco organization after helping lead the team to three World Series titles — including one in which he more or less personally willed the club to victory. The intra-state rivalry is intense no matter the participants, but Bumgarner was more than your average player in the frequent frays between the teams.
The news is also interesting because of what it says about the Dodgers’ intentions this winter. The club isn’t exactly desperate for rotation pieces but obviously feels it’s an area to add. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is said to be looking at about a dozen key targets, as Pedro Moura of The Athletic reported today (subscription link). It seems that bolstering the starting staff is a significant priority.
Bumgarner’s days as a true front-line starter may be over, evidenced in part by the matching 3.90 ERA/3.90 FIP he posted across an impressive 207 2/3 innings in 2019, but he wouldn’t have to be an ace in Los Angeles. The club already has two front-end types in Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw, after all, with Kenta Maeda, Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May among potential complementary pieces. However, the Dodgers are facing an especially notable departure in free agency in the form of lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu.
Now that Cole, Stephen Strasburg and Zack Wheeler are no longer free agents, Bumgarner and Ryu look like the top two starters on the market. Bumgarner has age and durability advantages over the soon-to-be 33-year-old Ryu, which may earn the former the larger contract, though the latter has been the better pitcher on a per-inning basis of late. The Dodgers do have interest in re-signing Ryu, but it seems their focus is now on Bumgarner, who has a chance to crack the $100MM mark on his upcoming deal.
Poll: Josh Donaldson’s Next Contract
With Anthony Rendon on his way to the Halos and Mike Moustakas now entrenched in Cincinnati, teams seeking a significant third-base upgrade in free agency are likely focused in on Josh Donaldson. The 2015 AL MVP was the clear No. 2 option heading into the winter, behind Rendon, and the manner in which things have played out has gone quite nicely for him and his representatives at the MVP Sports Group. Not only has the market been more aggressive for top-end free agents that at any point in the past two offseasons, but Moustakas signed with a club that plans to use him at second base and had no need for a third baseman. That’s notable for Donaldson (as it was for Rendon), because it took a top fallback option off the third base market without eliminating a potential suitor for Donaldson himself.
To this point, Donaldson has been most heavily linked to the Dodgers, Rangers, Nationals, Twins and Braves — although multiple reports out of Texas on Thursday suggested that the Rangers aren’t likely to be the highest bidder. Even if Texas is out of the running, that still leaves at least four viable landing spots for Donaldson. The Dodgers had interest in Rendon and could either move Justin Turner across the diamond or to another team entirely. Washington now has a Rendon-sized hole to fill at the hot corner, and Donaldson is one of the few third basemen in the game who can come close to matching that value on a per-game basis. The Twins could move Miguel Sano to first base and add Donaldson to an already potent lineup while simultaneously improving their infield defense. And the Braves, of course, were the beneficiaries of Donaldson’s .259/.379/.521 rebound campaign in 2019, when he swatted 37 home runs and tallied 4.9 fWAR and 6.1 bWAR.
It’s certainly possible, too, that other clubs are looming on the periphery. The Phillies, for instance, could theoretically push Scott Kingery to center field and deploy Donaldson at third base even after signing Didi Gregorius. The Brewers have funds available and an opening at third base, although beating the rest of the market on a free-agent deal of this nature has rarely been the team’s M.O. under president of baseball operations David Stearns (Lorenzo Cain being the notable exception). If the Cardinals can find a taker for Matt Carpenter, might they jump into the fray? They’ve been connected to Donaldson in each of the past few offseasons.
Suffice it to say, even with the Angels no longer a possible destination for Donaldson, there are plenty of plausible landing spots for a player who can reasonably be expected to deliver four to five wins above replacement in at least the first couple seasons of a new multi-year deal. The other question with regard to his market is just how high the bidding will go. Donaldson is expected to command at least a three-year contract and, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, already has one such offer in hand.
Whether a club will push to four guaranteed years could be the ultimate deciding factor. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden tweeted yesterday that “multiple” teams were willing to do so, although there’s been no indication that a team would be willing to go to four years and maintain the roughly $24-25MM annual commitment that Donaldson is expected to receive on a three-year arrangement. Being willing to go to $80-90MM on a four-year term isn’t the same as being willing to go to $100MM+ over the next four seasons.
Let’s open up the floor on each of those three aspects of his next contract…
Where will Donaldson sign? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)
Where will Josh Donaldson sign?
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Braves 45% (14,548)
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Nationals 24% (7,695)
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Dodgers 10% (3,316)
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Twins 10% (3,199)
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Rangers 7% (2,218)
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Other (specify in comments) 4% (1,341)
Total votes: 32,317
How long will the contract be? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)
How many guaranteed years will Josh Donaldson get?
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Three years 48% (11,411)
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Four years 43% (10,056)
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Two years 8% (1,795)
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One year 1% (304)
Total votes: 23,566
What will the total guarantee be? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)
How much money will Josh Donaldson be guaranteed?
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$75-90MM 38% (8,399)
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$90-100MM 23% (5,039)
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$65-75MM 23% (5,023)
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Under $65MM 9% (2,046)
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More than $100MM 8% (1,724)
Total votes: 22,231
Pitching Rumors: Ryu, Leclerc, Betances, Hader, Thor
Earlier this week, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register and other reporters that he has discussed a new deal for Hyun-Jin Ryu with agent Scott Boras. For now, though, Ryu’s under the impression his longtime club isn’t particularly interested in bringing him back. “If the Dodgers wanted to re-sign me, they would have told my agent,” the left-hander said (via Yonhap News Agency). “I haven’t heard from him yet, and honestly, I don’t have much to tell you right now.” Ryu and Madison Bumgarner, another potential Dodgers target, represent the two best free-agent starters left in a market that has lost Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg over the past few days. Should the Dodgers fail to sign either of them, it’s unclear where they’ll turn if they’re determined to land another high-end starter.
- Rangers right-handed reliever Jose Leclerc is generating “a lot of interest” from other clubs, Levi Weaver of The Athletic tweets. That said, it’s not known whether the Rangers are open to trading their most valuable reliever – whom they signed to a team-friendly extension last offseason. The hard-throwing Leclerc, 25, is controllable for five more seasons (including two club options) and is only due a guaranteed $12.25MM over the rest of his deal. That’s one of the reasons he’d likely bring back a quality haul in a trade, which could create a conundrum for general manager Jon Daniels.
- It appears increasingly likely that reliever Dellin Betances‘ time with the Yankees is up. There’s no “active dialogue” between the Yankees and the free-agent righty’s camp, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. The 31-year-old Betances was excellent as a Yankee until injuries derailed him in 2019, when he faced a total of two batters. It seems the Yankees have turned their attention to another established reliever, Brewers lefty Josh Hader, whom they’re reportedly pursuing on the trade market. But Sherman throws a bit of cold water on that, writing that the two teams “did not seem to have substantial traction” in talks as the Winter Meetings wrapped up.
- The Mets just added two starters in Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha, giving them at least viable rotation candidates. Those somewhat modest signings won’t affect righty Noah Syndergaard‘s place on the team’s roster, though. GM Brodie Van Wagenen continues to insist the Mets are not going to trade Syndergaard, Sherman relays. In fact, with Jacob deGrom, Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, Steven Matz, Porcello and Wacha as the Mets’ top six starters, Van Wagenen’s of the belief that they have the deepest rotation in baseball.
Dodgers Interested In Dellin Betances
The Dodgers lost out to the Yankees in the Gerrit Cole derby on Tuesday, when the ace chose New York’s offer over Los Angeles’ proposal. Now, the Dodgers are among the teams with their sights set on one of the Yankees’ longtime contributors, reliever Dellin Betances. They have “real interest” in the four-time All-Star right-hander, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times first reported the Dodgers were after Betances, but that was before they agreed to sign fellow righty reliever Blake Treinen to a one-year, $10MM guarantee Wednesday.
If you’re a Dodgers fan, the excitement of a Betances pursuit obviously falls well shy of a Cole signing. But that’s not a knock on the soon-to-be 32-year-old Betances, one of the most successful late-game hurlers in recent memory. Betances came into his own in 2014 and has since posted a tremendous 2.21 ERA/2.25 FIP with 14.66 K/9, 3.9 BB/9 and a 48.1 percent groundball rate. That type of production would be welcome anywhere, especially on an LA team whose bullpen had its share of issues in 2019.
During a half-decade run from 2014-18, no major league reliever amassed more innings than Betances’ 373 1/3. While durability has been one of the hallmarks of the hard-throwing Betances’ career, the 2019 season was a different story. Injuries to his shoulder and lat largely deprived Betances of the chance to put up an impressive platform campaign and further boost his stock heading to the market. Betances didn’t pitch until Sept. 15, and his season came to an abrupt end that day after he faced just two batters (both of whom he retired). He suffered a freak partial tear to his left Achilles while hopping off the mound in Toronto.
In the wake of his latest injury, it’s anyone’s guess whether Betances will return to form next season. However, with MLBTR projecting a one-year, $7MM payday, Betances would be an intriguing buy-low pickup for the Dodgers, who are already set to take a chance on a Treinen bounce-back effort.
Yankees, Dodgers, Mets Reportedly In Market For Josh Hader
With the top end of the relief market going off the board early, teams looking for elite pen arms have been eyeing trade possibilities. The most intriguing of those: star Brewers lefty Josh Hader, who was recently reported to have been made available in talks. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently updated the market situation (subscription link).
Left-handed American League East hitters will be particularly distraught to learn that the Yankees “have been the most active pursuer” of Hader. The Yanks already possess two dynamic southpaws in Aroldis Chapman and Zack Britton. Having already brought in Chapman and Gerrit Cole this offseason, a move for Hader would make a stunning trifecta of high-powered arms.
Other clubs have also put in calls to Brewers GM David Stearns. The list includes the Dodgers and Mets, according to Rosenthal. No doubt a variety of other organizations are also checking in to see whether it might be possible to structure a mutually agreeable trade. Hader could take over as a traditional closer or function as a roving high-leverage out-getter, as suits a given team’s preferences.
Hader’s appeal lies not only in his strikeout-producing left arm, but also his age (26 in April) and contract rights. He’s controllable for four more seasons through the arbitration process. Those won’t come cheap, as Hader projects to earn $4.6MM as a Super Two and could yet attempt to argue for more in a high-stakes hearing. (A prior attempt to shake up the arb system for relievers didn’t work out for Dellin Betances, though Hader has more saves to his record.) Still, it’s a far sight shy of what it would cost to acquire a similar pitcher on the open market — not that it’s even possible to do so.
Astros Notes: Correa, Mets, Toro, Barnes, Dodgers
Carlos Correa‘s name came up in trade speculation on Tuesday, leading the shortstop to take time out of his honeymoon to call Jeff Luhnow, the Astros general manager told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart). Luhnow told the former Rookie Of The Year to not worry about the reports, and he further dismissed the idea of any major trades on Wednesday, telling media members that he would be “surprised if we moved any of our core players.” Some type of creative salary management seems inevitable, however, if the Astros are to make roster upgrades while avoiding at least the top level ($248MM+) of luxury tax punishment level. Houston already has a projected tax number of just over $231MM, as per Roster Resource, so even getting under the secondary punishment threshold of $228MM will take work. Since this would mark Houston’s first time over the luxury tax barrier, they would at least face only a first-timer charge, though topping the $248MM mark would also come with a ten-slot drop in their 2021 draft order.
More from the American League champions…
- The Mets were one team that at least checked in about Correa, SNY.tv’s Andy Martino tweets, though MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo described these conversations as “more fantasy baseball” than a truly serious discussion. New York would make an intriguing suitor for Correa since the Mets have a former top-tier prospect of their own at shortstop in Amed Rosario, and it’s fair to wonder whether Rosario would have been a logical trade chip to head Houston’s way in any Correa deal.
- Luhnow also told reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle) that he had been receiving “a number of inquiries” about Abraham Toro. MLB Pipeline ranks Toro as the Astros’ fifth-best prospect, after the 22-year-old hit .273/.365/.461 with 48 homers over 1544 career minor league PA. This led to Toro making his Major League debut last season, a 25-game/89-PA stint highlighted by his ninth-inning, two-run homer that provided the only offense Justin Verlander needed in his September 1st no-hitter against the Blue Jays. Toro has mostly played third base, though he has some experience at first and second base as well, making him even more attractive to interested teams. This multi-position ability could position Toro as Yuli Gurriel‘s heir apparent since Gurriel is a free agent after 2020, or the Astros’ payroll crunch could potentially get them to consider including Toro along with a hefty contract to clear some space on the books.
- The Astros have asked the Dodgers about catcher Austin Barnes, Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times reports (via Twitter), as Houston likes Barnes’ pitch-framing ability. It wasn’t long ago that Barnes seemed to be in line to be the Dodgers’ catcher of the future, though after hitting only .204/.311/.316 over 480 plate appearances in 2018-19, Barnes has firmly fallen behind Will Smith on the depth chart. Plus, Los Angeles has Keibert Ruiz on the way up as another blue chip catching prospect, making Barnes all the more potentially expendable. StatCorner and Baseball Prospectus do indeed give Barnes high grades for his framing, with BP also grading his blocking ability as generally above average. Barnes is signed for $1.1MM in 2020 and is arbitration-controlled through 2022, though he isn’t a youngster, as he turns 30 at the end of December.
Free Agent Notes: Akiyama, Hill, Romo, Kim, Rojas
Notes on some prominent names on the open market…
- We heard earlier today about Shogo Akiyama‘s camp meeting with the Cubs and Diamondbacks, and 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine (Twitter link) adds that Akiyama and company also spoke with the Rays and Reds. Contracts in the range of $8MM-$10MM over two years were discussed — this is a step up from MLBTR’s prediction of a two-year, $6MM deal, though Akiyama’s higher ask could reflect the level of interest in his services, not to mention this offseason’s thin center field market.
- Rich Hill has been in touch with multiple teams, the veteran lefty tells The Athletic’s Andy McCullough (subscription required), including his top two choices of the Dodgers and Red Sox, as well as “a whole bunch of other teams that are going to be contenders in 2020.” Though Hill won’t be able to pitch until midseason due to primary revision surgery on his UCL, he is “definitely not opposed to signing now. I think that does give the opportunity for the team, to be honest, to benefit from my experience as a whole. You’ve got a guy who comes into Spring Training as a veteran, and can help younger guys out.” Despite numerous injuries in recent years, Hill has been borderline elite when he has been able to take the mound, posting a 2.91 ERA, 3.79 K/BB rate, and 10.7 K/9 over 466 1/3 innings since the start of the 2015 season.
- The Red Sox have some interest in Sergio Romo, though they “don’t seem to be the most aggressive suitor” for the veteran reliever, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo writes (Twitter link). The Athletics, Marlins, and Twins have all been linked to Romo’s market this offseason, and there was some belief last week that he could sign his new deal before the end of the Winter Meetings.
- Left-hander Kwang-Hyun Kim “is believed to be seeking a three-year deal,” according to Jeff Sanders and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. It seems like something of a bold ask from a 31-year-old pitcher who is coming to the big leagues for the first time, especially since there isn’t agreement as to whether or not Kim is best suited for a starting or relieving job against MLB competition. (Kim is reportedly looking to start.) That said, Kim’s salary demands aren’t known, and since at least six teams are known to have interest, it can’t hurt to aim high in the early days of his posting period.
- Another player from the KBO League, Mel Rojas Jr. is also hearing from several Major League clubs, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi tweets. Rojas was a third-round pick for the Pirates in 2010 who played seven seasons in the minors before joining the KT Wiz prior to the 2017 season. Since going to South Korea and the hitter-friendly KBO League, Rojas has posted an impressive .310/.377/.561 with 85 homers over 1590 PA. Rojas is looking for guaranteed deal for a return back to North American baseball, as he’ll otherwise probably remain with the KT Wiz.
Dodgers Reportedly Didn’t Make Offer To Anthony Rendon
Third baseman Anthony Rendon is no longer a free agent, having agreed to join the Angels on Wednesday for seven years and $245MM. The Dodgers were thought to be in the mix for Rendon’s services, but it turns out that they never even made the superstar an offer, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reports. The club’s “sense” was that Rendon did not want to play in Los Angeles, according to Castillo.
With Rendon now off the market, the big-budget Dodgers officially went 0-for-3 on this winter’s premier free agents. They lost out on Gerrit Cole (Yankees) despite making an eight-year, $300MM offer and didn’t prevent Stephen Strasburg from re-signing with the Nationals. However, that doesn’t mean the perennial powerhouse Dodgers won’t make some kind of splash this winter.
President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman revealed before the Cole and Rendon agreements that the Dodgers had about a dozen elite-level potential acquisitions on their list. “Elite” is in the eye of the beholder, but LA has recently been connected to notables such as Francisco Lindor, Josh Donaldson, Madison Bumgarner and longtime Dodger Hyun-Jin Ryu in the rumor mill. With the exception of Lindor, who’s still under Cleveland’s control for another couple years, all of those players remain available in free agency.
Pitcher Rumors: Cole, LA, Porcello, Roark, Reds, Brewers, Jays, Fish
The latest on several pitchers…
- The Yankees won the bidding for right-handed ace Gerrit Cole on Tuesday, when the two sides agreed to a history-making deal worth $324MM over nine years. But the runners-up, the Angels and Dodgers, made mighty competitive offers in their own right. Both clubs were willing to go to eight years, with the Dodgers’ bid at exactly $300MM and the Angels’ just below that line, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reports. Both teams’ offers included deferrals, whereas the Yankees’ didn’t.
- Free-agent righty-hander Rick Porcello has a three-year offer in hand, but he’s more inclined to accept a one-year contract, Jon Heyman of MLB Network relays. By taking a short-term pact, Porcello would be betting on himself and pinning his hopes on bouncing back next year after a tough 2019. In possibly his last season as a member of the Red Sox, the former AL Cy Young winner struggled to a below-average 5.52 ERA/4.76 FIP, though the durable 30-year-old did pile up at least 170 innings (174 1/3) for the 10th time in his career.
- Righty Tanner Roark came off the market Wednesday when he reached a two-year, $24MM agreement with Toronto, but a couple NL Central teams were also in the race for him. The Reds, with whom Roark spent the first half of 2019, and the Brewers pursued him, per reports from Jon Heyman of MLB Network and Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. So far this offseason, Cincinnati hasn’t yet added to an already formidable rotation fronted by Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani. On the other hand, the Brewers made a low-risk, possibly high-reward signing Wednesday in grabbing former KBO star Josh Lindblom.
- Speaking of Lindblom, the Blue Jays put a “significant” offer on the table for him before he headed to Milwaukee, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. The details of that proposal aren’t known. Lindblom would up agreeing to a three-year deal worth $9.125MM.
- The Marlins are drawing some interest in righty Jose Urena, Craig Mish of MLB Network reports on Twitter. The Blue Jays are said to be one of the clubs to have called on the hard-throwing 28-year-old, who’s under arbitration control for two more seasons. Fellow Marlins starters Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith and Pablo Lopez have also gotten clubs’ attention, as upward of half the league’s teams have inquired about them, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com tweets. However, Frisaro writes that it’s “extremely unlikely” the Marlins will trade anyone from that trio.
Dodgers “Pessimistic” On Rendon, Still Talking Lindor With Indians
2:31pm: While the likelihood of an arrangement isn’t known, the Dodgers are engaged in “serious” and ongoing talks with the Indians regarding star shortstop Francisco Lindor, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The report suggests that the Cleveland organization wants a prospect package that includes top talents Gavin Lux and Dustin May, each of whom reached the majors late last year. Whether the demand is for both to be included isn’t entirely clear.
2:00pm: The Dodgers are increasingly “pessimistic” as to their chances of striking a deal with top remaining free agent Anthony Rendon, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The L.A. org just missed out on Gerrit Cole and could now see its other major target slip away.
What’s the mean for the market on Rendon? Rosenthal reiterates several other recent reports indicating that the Nationals are unlikely to bring back their star third bagger. The Rangers and Angels appear to be the leading contenders to secure the services of the smooth-swinging 29-year-old.
As for the Dodgers, if indeed they fall out of the Rendon bidding they’ll presumably keep moving down the line of options. The club is said to have interest in Josh Donaldson, Madison Bumgarner, and several other possible free agent and trade targets.