Dodgers Rumors

“It’s not that far off,” said Dodgers reliever Joe Kelly last night after his latest rough outing. “It probably looks worse than what it really is.”

Kelly was referring to his own situation when he chatted with reporters (including Pedro Moura of The Athletic, Twitter link). But he probably could have spoken in similar terms of the Dodgers bullpen as a whole.

The results haven’t been great; I won’t argue with you there. But the Dodgers actually sit in the middle of the pack as a unit by measure of both ERA and fielding independent pitching. There have been blown saves, but not a dramatic number in comparison to some other clubs.

In many respects, it’s not even worth thinking too hard about how this relief unit looks right now. The Dodgers are blitzing an otherwise mediocre division. At 45-21, the team is easily the class of the entire National League to this point. The relief corps hasn’t been bad enough to jeopardize a seemingly inevitable march to a division crown.

President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman certainly isn’t blind to the issues that do exist, as Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register recently covered. But he’s also focused primarily on the end goal: “It’s about feeling like we’ve got four to five ’pen arms in October that we trust and can help us,” says Friedman. “That’s what you need.”

So, can the Dodgers get to that desired handful of trustworthy hurlers? (And maybe settle upon two or three nice complimentary specialists to fill out a postseason roster?) Beyond acknowledging the potential for outside additions, Friedman says he still believes in the players currently populating the major-league roster. He also cites “other guys that are knocking on the door for an audition at some point.”

Kenley Jansen remains the rock. He’s not what he was, but it’d be foolish to say he’s washed up when he’s carrying 12.5 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9. Pedro Baez has his warts but keeps getting results; he’s through 28 1/3 innings this year with a 3.18 ERA. The numbers aren’t as promising this year as last for Dylan Floro, as he hasn’t continued to suppress home runs, but he’s still managing a 3.13 ERA in 23 frames.

That trio constitutes something of a core, but it’s not the most intimidating of late-inning bunches. And the rest of the arms come with yet more questions. Yimi Garcia and Scott Alexander are among the team’s most-used other hurlers. The former has been torched by the long ball and may be at risk if he can’t find a groove. The latter is exhibiting declining swinging-strike and groundball numbers, but remains at least an interesting change-of-pace arm.

Alexander is the sort of hurler that Friedman seems to be thinking of when he refers to having “enough diversified looks” in the current unit. But what is it that gives the veteran baseball exec confidence that it’s “more about augmenting than tearing down” when it comes to structuring his bullpen?

The sheer volume of possibilities is part of what inspires confidence. It starts with the current or future excess rotation pieces. Ross Stripling has seen a bit of a velo fall-off this year, and has been better in the rotation than the pen, but is an excellent swingman to have around. Lefty Julio Urias has boosted his velocity and swinging-strike rates are up in a relief role. (His future remains clouded by an ongoing domestic violence investigation, though he won’t face prosecution unless he fails to meet the conditions set by authorities.) Veteran Kenta Maeda has been a flexible piece for the Dodgers in years past and will be useful in some capacity come October.

There are multiple swing-and-miss guys amassed at Triple-A, including 40-man members JT Chargois (30 strikeouts in 24 innings) and Josh Sborz (34 strikeouts in 26 innings) as well as experienced former big leaguers Kevin Quackenbush (43 strikeouts in 30 1/3 innings) and Justin Grimm (41 strikeouts in 26 innings). There are a host of other plausible arms bouncing around in the upper reaches of the Dodgers farm. In addition to several hurlers with 40-man spots who’ve already had some prior MLB opportunities, the Dodgers have some untested prospects nearing readiness. Tony Gonsolin, Mitchell White, and Dustin May are among them.

So did we leave anyone out? Oh, right, Kelly …

The Dodgers clearly targeted him over the offseason, drawn to his big velocity and promising peripherals. Kelly has boosted his strikeout rate to 11 per nine and run up his groundball rate to 55.4%, but he is coughing up 1.69 HR/9 on a 28.6% HR/FB rate. Opposing hitters carry a .377 BABIP and Kelly’s strand rate sits at just 56.9%. There’s cause to believe regression is coming, but he’s also being tuned up for a 49.2% hard-hit rate.

If Kelly can get things on track in the next several weeks, the Dodgers will have added confidence in their ability to trot out five strong arms late in the year. Regardless, the late-inning group looks in need of supplementation. But that’s not much of a concern for an organization that has so much talent on and around the MLB roster. Friedman will have plenty of options on the trade market. With a huge division lead providing breathing room, the veteran exec sees a path to getting the unit he desires when the time comes: “We’ll operate on dual tracks of doing everything we can to get our existing guys better while canvassing the market.”

What do you get for the team that has just about everything? That’s something Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is going to have to figure out leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. At a major league-best 43-20, the Dodgers are well on their way to a seventh straight National League West title and perhaps a third consecutive NL pennant.

The Dodgers’ offense leads the NL in runs and walk percentage and ranks second in homers and strikeout rate. It’s strong against both right- and left-handed pitchers. And those hitters are hardly a one-dimensional group, judging by the Dodgers’ league-leading Defensive Runs Saved and second-best Ultimate Zone Rating. The club’s exemplary defense helps support a starting rotation that paces baseball in two key categories – fWAR and K/BB ratio – and sits atop the NL in ERA, thanks to Hyun-Jin Ryu, Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Kenta Maeda and Rich Hill.

It’s clear the Dodgers are a team with almost no weaknesses. “Almost” is the operative word, though, because the Dodgers are likely going to have to augment their bullpen if they’re going to win their first World Series since 1988 this season. The Dodgers’ relief unit sits 18th in the sport in FIP and 20th in ERA. Although LA’s bullpen is sixth in the league in K/BB ratio, only closer Kenley Jansen and setup man Pedro Baez have been particularly dependable thus far. Even Jansen hasn’t been the dominant force we’re used to seeing. Meanwhile, Dylan Floro, Scott Alexander, Joe Kelly, Caleb Ferguson, Ross Stripling and Julio Urias have each been somewhat shaky as bridges to Jansen. Alexander, Urias and Ferguson represent the group’s southpaws, but they’ve all had some difficulty against same-handed hitters this year.

Given the struggles of LA’s bullpen so far, strengthening the group may be Friedman’s primary objective over the next couple months. Luckily for him, even after Craig Kimbrel exited free agency Wednesday to join the Cubs, there are plenty of quality relievers who figure to land with new teams in the next several weeks. Three of the best, lefties Will Smith and Tony Watson (an ex-Dodger) and righty Sam Dyson, belong to the non-contending Giants. While they and the Dodgers loathe each other and have rarely been trade partners over the years, times may be changing. First-year Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, who was previously Friedman’s top lieutenant with the Dodgers, indicated this week that he’d be open to dealing with LA (via Brian Witt of NBC Bay Area).

“I understand there’s all kinds of emotional baggage going with that,” Zaidi said of a potential Giants-Dodgers swap. “Maybe the Dodgers are a special case, and I think most fans would say it’s not maybe, they just are a special case. But in general, I actually think trading in the division has a strategic advantage.”

In Zaidi’s estimation, trading with a division rival would give the Giants an opportunity to bolster their farm system at a hated team’s expense. The Dodgers’ system is among the best in the game, which should give them the upper hand on most teams when it comes to talks with the Giants or any other clubs’ relievers. Aside from the Giants’ potentially available late-game arms, lefties Sean Doolittle (Nationals), Francisco Liriano (Pirates) and Jake Diekman (Royals) and righties Ken Giles (Blue Jays), Alex Colome (White Sox), Shane Greene (Tigers), Ian Kennedy (Royals) and Mychal Givens (Orioles) stand out as relievers who might change hands this summer. Any of them could up in a Dodgers uniform as a result.

While Friedman may be eyeing bullpen help over anything else, that doesn’t mean he’s content with his team’s position player group. Granted, the unit looks set for the most part. Right fielder Cody Bellinger may be on his way to NL MVP honors. Rookie center fielder Alex Verdugo has held down the fort during A.J. Pollock’s injury-forced absence, which shouldn’t last through the season. Left fielders Joc Pederson and Chris Taylor have made for an effective platoon. Third baseman Justin Turner continues to excel, as do first basemen Max Muncy and David Freese. Catchers Austin Barnes and Russell Martin haven’t matched predecessor Yasmani Grandal, but the former has given the club passable offense and tremendous defense, while Martin’s a highly respected presence who has offered above-average hitting this season. Plus, the Dodgers recently called up quality prospect Will D. Smith, who’s off to a nice start (could we see Will Smith throwing to Will Smith this year?).

If there’s one position the Dodgers could stand to upgrade, it’s second base. Muncy has gotten a decent amount of reps there, but righty-hitting No. 1 option Enrique Hernandez has been abysmal against same-handed pitchers. Meantime, Taylor has taken enormous steps back after a couple productive seasons. That may set the stage for the acquisition of a second baseman. How about Whit Merrifield, whom the Royals would reportedly consider parting with for a significant offer?

The 30-year-old Merrifield would provide the Dodgers with an everyday second baseman – one who’s also capable of playing the outfield if need be – thereby kicking Hernandez and Taylor to the bench. Even amid his struggles, the right-handed Taylor has still notched playable production against southpaws this year. With that in mind, he could continue platooning with the lefty-swinging Pederson in the outfield.

As of now, it’s anyone’s guess which players the Dodgers will acquire in advance of July 31. However, based on Friedman’s history at the helm of the franchise’s baseball department, the Dodgers will be busy. From 2015-18, his first four seasons in LA, Friedman picked up almost 40 players between June and August. Some of them – Hill, Floro, Freese and Taylor – remain important members of the team to this day.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.