Dodgers To Acquire Betts, Price In Three-Team Trade; Twins To Acquire Maeda
The Mookie Betts saga has reached its conclusion, and the result is a stunning three-team blockbuster that’ll massively alter the fortunes of all three clubs. The Dodgers are reportedly set to acquire Betts, David Price and significant cash considerations in a deal that will sent young outfielder Alex Verdugo to Boston and right-hander Kenta Maeda to the Twins. Minnesota, meanwhile, will send flamethrowing young righty Brusdar Graterol to the Red Sox to complete the swap.
In making this move, Boston bids adieu to one of its most popular and productive players of the current generation. Betts, the 2018 AL MVP and a career .301/.374/.519 hitter, has cemented himself as one of baseball’s truly elite talents. However, he has also candidly stated time and time again that he intends to test the open market as a free agent.
That lack of interest in an extension left the recently restructured Red Sox front office to weigh trading him for controllable talent now versus simply netting a draft pick in the event that he rejects a qualifying offer and signs elsewhere next winter. The prospect of losing him for that level of minimal return, coupled with ownership’s clear goal of dipping south of the $208MM luxury tax barrier, ultimately led rookie chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom to orchestrate tonight’s mega-deal.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, will land perhaps the greatest consolation prize in history. After missing out on top target Gerrit Cole earlier this winter, they’ve now acquired one of the game’s best all-around players, Betts, in addition to a high-profile starter who can still contribute to their rotation — even if his halcyon days are in the past.
Betts, still only 27, now joins an outfield that’ll feature Cody Bellinger and A.J. Pollock, with the versatile Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez playing complementary roles as well. While Betts didn’t quite replicate his 2018 MVP production in 2019, his .295/.391/.524 slash was still elite by measure of both wRC+ and OPS+ (both 135). He’s now been at least 35 percent better than an average hitter in three of the past four seasons by those same measures.
The bat alone would make Betts a coveted player, but he’s also among baseball’s best baserunners and an all-world defender in the outfield. Betts has won a Gold Glove in each of the past four seasons, and his 98 Defensive Runs Saved in that time lead all Major League players, regardless of position, by a whopping 13 runs. His aversion to signing a long-term deal means he has to be viewed as a pure rental player, but if you’re going to rent any player on the planet, renting one whose 30.7 fWAR over the past four seasons trails only Mike Trout for the MLB lead is certainly a good way to go. Betts will earn a $27MM salary after avoiding arbitration for the final time this winter — a record salary for an arb-eligible player.
At 34 years old, Price probably won’t be winning any more Cy Young Awards in his career, but this past season’s 4.28 ERA, 10.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.26 HR/9 and 41 percent grounder rate were all quite sound. That ERA undersells the season that Price had, too; he was plagued by a career-worst .336 average on balls in play, and fielding-independent metrics were more bullish on his efforts (3.62 FIP, 3.73 xFIP, 3.85 SIERA).
In fact, Price carried a terrific 3.16 ERA and 3.00 FIP through his first 17 starts and 88 1/3 innings with the Red Sox in 2019. Things began to go south in July as he tried to pitch through a cyst in his left wrist, and he eventually went on the injured list for more than a month while dealing with the issue. He returned in early September but made only one appearance before being shut down and undergoing surgery to alleviate the issue. Price is still owed $96MM under the then-record $217MM contract he signed prior to the 2016 season, but the Red Sox will pay a substantial portion of that sum to lessen the sting for the Dodgers.
Acquiring Betts and Price will cost Los Angeles a hefty five years of control over Verdugo and four more years of the talented Maeda, and there’s another major ripple effect, as the Dodgers have reportedly struck a separate trade sending outfielder Joc Pederson to the Angels in exchange for young infielder Luis Rengifo. Between the cash the Red Sox are sending to cover some of Price’s contract, the subtraction of Maeda and now the subtraction of Pederson’s final arbitration salary, it seems likely that the Dodgers will have managed to stay beneath the luxury tax threshold.
Not to be lost in the shuffle, the Twins are adding a quality arm to a rotation that looked to be in need of augmentation. In Maeda, they land an accomplished 31-year-old starter (32 in April) who prefers to work out of the rotation but was frequently moved to the bullpen for short stints — perhaps in part due to the massive incentives package in his eight-year contract.
Whether the Dodgers deliberately manipulated Maeda’s rotation work to suppress his earnings can’t be known, but his deal contains only a $3MM annual base with a whopping $10MM in annual bonuses based on games started and innings pitched. With the Twins, he’ll all but certainly be viewed as a rotation piece and be given every opportunity to max out those additional payments. Maeda is signed through the 2023 season, and his contract calls for a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade, so he can tack that onto his career earnings.
In 589 career innings, Maeda has a 3.87 ERA with 9.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.18 HR/9 and a 40.9 percent ground-ball rate. That he’s more of a fly-ball pitcher bodes well for his fortunes in Minnesota, as the Twins have significant questions about their middle-infield defense but a high-quality group of outfield defenders led by Byron Buxton and Max Kepler. Maeda has racked up 32 2/3 career postseason innings as well, pitching to a 3.31 ERA in that time. He might not be the ace Twins fans hoped to net early this winter, but he’ll bump one of two rookies — southpaw Devin Smeltzer or right-hander Randy Dobnak — from the rotation and provide a clear boost.
In 2020, Maeda will step into a rotation that’ll be fronted by Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi. The Twins also re-signed Michael Pineda to a two-year contract earlier this winter, but he’ll be out through mid-May as he serves a reduced 60-game suspension for taking a banned substance. Veteran Homer Bailey will also be a part of the Twins’ starting staff after signing a one-year pact on the heels of a healthy season, and Maeda will eventually be reunited with former Dodgers teammate Rich Hill. The veteran southpaw inked a one-year deal this winter but will be out until the summer as he recovers from primary revision surgery.
Looking beyond the 2020 campaign, Maeda is all the more important for the Twins. Odorizzi, Bailey and Hill are all slated to become free agents next winter, so prior to this trade, Berrios and Pineda were the only proven starters Minnesota controlled beyond the upcoming campaign. Maeda gives them a solid mid-rotation presence to help anchor the staff and does so at an affordable rate that’ll allow the Twins to continue to be aggressive in free agency next year if they choose to double down on this winter’s surprising Josh Donaldson splash.
As for the Red Sox, today is presumably one of the most difficult days in franchise history for a number of the team’s longest-tenured executives. Luxury tax aside, Sox ownership recognizes that trading Betts will be a wildly unpopular move. John Henry and Co. surely didn’t think they’d be in this position just 16 months ago when celebrating a World Series victory, but injuries and some ill-fated expenditures brought about a mediocre 2019 season and a slew of tough choices. It’s easy to argue that a team with such considerable financial resources at its disposal should simply have kept Betts and paid up for him, but even their detractors can agree that there’s likely little joy in trading away a generational player.
The 2020 Red Sox are unquestionably worse having made this move, but they were a long shot to topple the Yankees anyhow and now acquire a pair of potential building blocks. The 23-year-old Verdugo is a longtime top prospect who enjoyed a strong 2019 season and will step right into the void left by Betts. He’s fresh off a .294/.342/.475 slash with a dozen home runs, 22 doubles and two triples in 377 plate appearances with Los Angeles and should see his playing time soar to full-time levels in 2020 and beyond.
Verdugo has excellent bat-to-ball skills and rarely strikes out (13.7 percent in his career). And while he’s no Betts with the glove — no one is — he racked up 13 DRS in 2019 and is capable of handling all three outfield positions. He’s the Red Sox’ right fielder of the future, and unlike many young players who are acquired for stars, that future will start right away; Verdugo should be in the Opening Day lineup and give Sox fans an immediate look at his potential.
The 21-year-old Graterol is less certain to open the year with the Sox, but he’s an electric and exciting talent — albeit one with more volatility than Verdugo. Injuries have plagued Graterol throughout his minor league career — he’s already undergone Tommy John surgery and has battled shoulder troubles, too — but pitchers with his type of velocity and upside are rare. The massive 6’1″, 255-pounder boasts a fastball that sits just under 100 mph and can reach as high as 103 mph, and he’s utterly dominated in the minors when healthy.
Graterol owns a career 2.48 ERA with 9.7 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 in 214 minor league frames, and he skyrocketed across multiple levels to make his MLB debut in 2019. There’s some concern that his future is in the bullpen, but the Red Sox will likely give him every opportunity to prove that he can be a difference-maker in their rotation.
Graterol was a consensus Top 100 prospect a year ago and remains on those oft-cited rankings. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs has already moved Graterol to the top of Boston’s prospect rankings, noting the big righty’s potential to either function as a high-end starter or, if he moves to the ‘pen, an elite reliever.
Although there are myriad high-profile players whose name will still be bandied about the trade market, there’s a chance that the Betts/Price/Maeda blockbuster will serve as the finishing touch on what has been a riveting offseason — on that hearkened back to the pre-labor-tension days that seem far longer ago than just two or three years. And in some respects, it’s merely an interesting prelude to a 2020-21 offseason that will quite likely see Betts set out into the free-agent market in search of the largest contract in MLB history. Trades of this magnitude are of the utmost rarity — and virtually unprecedented this time of year — and there’s a good chance that come October we’ll look back at Feb. 4 as a day that majorly impacted multiple division races and postseason outcomes.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported (via Twitter) that a deal was in place after MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reported that talks had become “advanced.” Speier reported the inclusion of a third team (Twitter link). SKOR North Radio’s Darren Wolfson first suggested the Twins’ potential involvement (Twitter link), and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted that the Twins were indeed the third team. Rosenthal reported the basic framework of the deal, tweeting that Betts and Price would head to L.A., Maeda would go to Minnesota and that Verdugo and Graterol were headed to Boston.
Red Sox, Dodgers In “Advanced” Talks On Mookie Betts
8:05pm: A third team could be involved in talks, tweets Rosenthal, though the basic framework of the deal being discussed still includes Price and Betts going to L.A. and Verdugo going to Boston.
8:03pm: The current proposal would send both Betts and Price to Los Angeles, tweets Speier. The two sides are reviewing medicals on all of the potentially involved players. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that young outfielder Alex Verdugo would be the centerpiece going to Boston, as has been previously rumored.
7:58pm: Trade talks centering around Red Sox star right fielder Mookie Betts have once again heated up, tweets Jon Heyman of MLB Network, who calls the Dodgers the favorite to land him. The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier adds that Boston and Los Angeles are in “advanced” talks and that it’s possible a deal will come together tonight. The Padres aren’t completely out of the mix just yet, per Heyman.
The Betts trade saga has dominated headlines for the past week, with the Red Sox soliciting offers on the 2018 AL MVP from both the Dodgers and Padres. Both teams have obvious motivations to add Betts to the fold, but the Dodgers are already a clear postseason contender with deeper pockets and a generally strong mix of MLB-ready talent and high-end prospects. Previous reports have indicated that the Red Sox are hoping to attach part of David Price‘s contract in a deal with the Dodgers, though it’s not clear whether the current permutations of talks include the former Cy Young winner, who is owed $96MM over the next three years.
Betts, 27, agreed to a record-setting $27MM salary in his final trip through the arbitration process earlier this winter. He’s been outspoken and candid about his desire to test free agency rather than sign an extension, so he has to be viewed purely as a one-year rental for any club that acquires him. By trading him, the Red Sox would drop their projected luxury tax commitments to about $212MM — just $4MM over the $208MM threshold. If they’re successfully able to unload a portion of Price’s deal, new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom will have successfully dipped below the luxury tax line. That’s been a clear goal for Boston ownership all winter, despite chairman John Henry’s dubious claims that the team is more focused on competitiveness than on resetting their luxury penalty level.
Red Sox Still Pondering Mookie Betts Trade Scenarios
The waiting game continues, despite expectations to the contrary. As of this morning, with just one week until pitchers and catchers report, Mookie Betts remains a member of the Red Sox.
All day yesterday it seemed a trade could drop at any moment. Reports the evening prior had indicated as much. Padres beat writer Kevin Acee tweeted midday that “multiple people close to situation believe resolution on Mookie Betts trade is imminent.”
It seems the Friars expected to find out whether they or the division-overlord Dodgers would land a new superstar. They’re still waiting right along with the rest of us.
The Red Sox are still engaged with both west coast organizations, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. And the Boston club is still not even settled on particular trade scenarios with each prospective trade partner. Speier says that concepts both including and excluding high-priced lefty David Price remain on the table.
So, is today the day? Perhaps. But new Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom seems determined to take his time making his first major call. While it has appeared that talks were building to a crescendo, Speier explains that the club still isn’t feeling timing or logistical pressure.
Presumably, there’s a point in the near future at which the constraints of the calendar will force a move (or lack thereof). The Padres and Dodgers need to make alternative plans if they can’t nab Betts. And the Boston club no doubt prefers not to open camp with such massive uncertainty hanging over the organization. Even if it can’t be said that a resolution is now truly imminent, it seems quite likely to come within the week.
Poll: Where Will Mookie Betts Play In 2020?
The trade rumblings surrounding Mookie Betts are presumably nearing their peak. The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reported last night that resolution on trade talks regarding him could come within the next few days. Ken Rosenthal offered a similar sentiment on MLB Network’s Hot Stove show this morning (Twitter link, with video), plainly stating that a Betts trade “is going to happen.”
At this point, the race to acquire Betts is widely reported to be between a pair of NL West rivals: the Dodgers and the Padres. The former, of course, is a perennial division champ hoping that Betts could be the piece to finally push them across the finish line in the World Series after two near-misses in three years. The latter would simply hope Betts could propel them into postseason play at all. San Diego has yet to experience a playoff game under general manager A.J. Preller, who was hired more than five years ago.
As with most high-profile trade scenarios, there are multiple layers to consider. Both the Padres and Dodgers have excellent farm systems and controllable, MLB-ready talent to pitch to new Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and his staff. Betts would push the Padres into franchise-record payroll territory but wouldn’t bring them to the luxury tax threshold. The Dodgers, on the other hand, have spent far more than this before but would be in luxury territory with Betts on board.
The financial components don’t stop there. San Diego has reportedly sought to unload part of Wil Myers‘ contract (three years, $61MM remaining) on the Red Sox in their talks. Boston has been trying to push some of David Price‘s remaining deal (three years, $96MM) on both clubs; USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets this morning that the Dodgers are still trying to get the Sox to take on a larger portion of Price’s contract.
The emergence of an unexpected suitor — who doesn’t love a good mystery team?! — would make things more interesting and remains possible as long as Betts is still under Red Sox control.
It’s only been 10 days since MLBTR readers weighed in on whether a Betts trade would happen at all, with nearly 69 percent of participants voting that the 2018 AL MVP would open the 2020 season in Boston. Just over a week later, there’s a decidedly different feel around the Betts situation, so let’s open this up one final time (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…
Who will Mookie Betts be playing for on Opening Day 2020?
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He'll be a Dodger. 56% (17,854)
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The Red Sox won't trade him. 18% (5,749)
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He'll be a Padre. 15% (4,912)
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Never bet against the mystery team! 11% (3,627)
Total votes: 32,142
Mookie Betts Trade Talks Could Be Nearing Resolution
The Mookie Betts saga hasn’t yet reached a resolution. That could change shortly. The Red Sox may make a decision on Betts “within the next few days,” reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Boston has continued to discuss “multiple” trade scenarios with both the Dodgers and Padres. Those talks have now reached “a relatively advanced stage,” Speier reports. Earlier this week, Speier categorized the Betts sweepstakes as “a two-team race” between Los Angeles and San Diego. There’s no indication anyone beyond the two NL West rivals is still involved.
That’s not to say a Betts trade imminently coming to fruition is a guarantee. The Red Sox haven’t asked either L.A. or San Diego for “a last and best offer,” a source from one of the rival clubs told Speier. That suggests there remains some possibility of talks fizzling out or going in an unexpected direction; at the very least, it doesn’t seem Boston plans to set a firm deadline on a Betts trade, at least not immediately.
Reading between the lines, though, it feels like a Betts trade is now more likely than ever. Speier reported earlier in the week it was “likelier than not” the superstar would wind up on the move, and today’s news only strengthens that notion. If a deal does get across the finish line, what could the Red Sox expect in return for the former AL MVP?
Any deal with the Padres would need to include Wil Myers to help offset payroll, Speier reiterates. (Betts will make $27MM in 2020 in the final season before he reaches free agency). As Speier observes, San Diego’s package of young talent would therefore have to top that of the Dodgers to compensate for the inclusion of some of Myers’ contract. The 29-year-old is due $61MM over the next three seasons. Coming off a season in which he hit just .239/.321/.418, Myers certainly wouldn’t approach that figure if he were on the open market now. San Diego would pay down some of Myers’ deal in the event of a trade, Speier notes; even still, the Red Sox would surely demand more valuable young talent with Myers included than they otherwise would have.
Among that young talent would figure to be an MLB-ready outfielder and starting pitcher, as well as some prospect help. San Diego has shown a willingness to discuss outfielders Manuel Margot (a former Red Sox prospect) and Josh Naylor, Speier reports, although any outfielders except Trent Grisham and Tommy Pham could be on the table. Starting pitchers Cal Quantrill and Joey Lucchesi continue to garner some consideration, while any prospect package would likely be led by catcher Luis Campusano (Baseball America’s #79 overall prospect), Speier adds. Not all five players would be involved in a Betts trade, of course, and there are no doubt others who have come up in talks. The names under discussion give some early indication of what to expect if a Betts deal involving San Diego is completed, though.
From the Dodgers’ perspective, meanwhile, Alex Verdugo could be on the table, Speier reports. The 23-year-old former top prospect hit .294/.342/.475 (114 wRC+) in 377 plate appearances last season and comes with five years of team control, making him an eminently valuable trade piece. Other scenarios with the Dodgers still seem to be up in the air; the parties continue to discuss a package deal involving David Price and his three-year, $96MM contract, Speier notes, as well as deals that would send Betts alone to L.A.
Notably, the Athletic’s Peter Gammons noted this afternoon (via Twitter) that the Dodgers appear to be the frontrunner, with three sources characterizing Betts to L.A. as “inevitable.” Verdugo could indeed be on the table in such a scenario, Gammons hears; he further adds middle infield prospect Jeter Downs and pitcher Caleb Ferguson as names to monitor.
With spring training approaching, one of this offseason’s greatest dramas appears to be nearing its conclusion. Wherever Betts plays next season, he figures to again offer outstanding production. The 27-year-old has a .299/.389/.535 slash (140 wRC+) since the start of 2017. With elite baserunning and defense factored in, only Mike Trout has bested Mookie’s 22.4 fWAR over that time.
Latest On Dodgers’ Pursuit Of Mookie Betts
5:54PM: “All signs point to a two-team race” between the Dodgers and Padres for Betts, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes, and “Major League sources believe that it’s likelier than not that Betts gets traded, potentially in the very near future.” Price might yet be involved in a potential Dodgers deal, though adding Price alongside Betts “might compromise the prospect return for the Sox,” since Los Angeles doesn’t want to absorb much of Price’s contract. On the Padres’ side, they “seem open on just about any other outfielder” than Tommy Pham or Trent Grisham in trade talks. The Diamondbacks were another team linked to Betts in trade rumors, though Speier hears from a source that there was “no real traction” between Boston and Arizona even before the D’Backs acquired Starling Marte, so Arizona seems to be out of the Betts hunt.
7:30AM: With camp fast approaching, teams weighing major trades are surely beginning to feel the pressure. The Dodgers are keeping their cool as they continue to pursue Red Sox star Mookie Betts, Andy McCullough of The Athletic writes (subscription link). But they’re also possibly nearing a decision.
Talks between the coastal giants could well be reaching an inflection point, it seems. McCullough writes that the teams have “approached a resolution” in their talks “in recent days.”
Details of the packages under consideration are limited; as McCullough notes, it’s possible to imagine rather a wide variety of permutations. But the talks — at least, in some variations — do involve high-priced Boston hurler David Price. (Shades of another major trade between these teams?)
As we discussed recently in a poll on the subject, there’s no shortage of pressure on the team to make strides. And the goal is obviously to find a major new performer. But the team also has reason to remain comfortable with its existing talent. No surprise, then, that McCullough indicates the organization isn’t really interested in stretching too far to make a deal.
It’s worth noting, too, that holding back assets for mid-season trades represents a viable alternative strategy. Betts himself could be available then, if he’s not poached first by another club (such as the division-rival Padres). The Dodgers can’t assume they’ll coast to another title, particularly now that the Diamondbacks have compiled such an interesting roster, but there’s some conceptual merit to waiting for mid-season roster holes to open before acting.
Speaking of that aforementioned poll … the results were interesting. Respondents were fairly evenly split as to whether the Dodgers would pull off a blockbuster. Among those that foresee a deal, about half think Betts will indeed land to L.A.
Scott Kazmir Launches Comeback Attempt
Three full seasons have elapsed since Scott Kazmir pitched in a Major League game, but the veteran left-hander is set to launch another comeback attempt at 36 years of age. Kazmir recently tweeted a video of himself throwing in a bullpen session, and the former Rays, Indians, Angels, A’s and Dodgers southpaw confirmed to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that he hopes to return to the big leagues in 2020.
Kazmir, who’s open to a minor league contract and a chance to prove himself in Spring Training (as he’d need to be after such a lengthy absence), tells Topkin he’s still in the process of rebuilding his arm strength and fastball velocity. He’s worked out with Driveline this winter and recently topped out at 90.9 mph in a bullpen session. That’s already a far sight higher than the 86 mph at which his heater sat when he first began throwing with an eye toward a big league return. Kazmir’s fastball sat at 91.4 mph in his final season with the Dodgers in 2016, so he’s not quite yet even topping out at his previous fastball average. However, he also has nearly two months before the season would begin.
This, of course, wouldn’t be the first comeback attempt for Kazmir. The former Rays ace saw a sharp decline in 2009-10, pitched just 1 2/3 innings in 2011 and was out of affiliated baseball entirely in 2012 before embarking on a similar journey. That career renaissance proved quite fruitful, as Kazmir parlayed a minor league deal with the Indians into a quality 2013 campaign in which he tossed 158 innings of 4.04 ERA ball with better than a strikeout per inning.
That showing landed him a two-year, $22MM deal with the A’s the following winter, and Kazmir made good on that deal as well, throwing a combined 373 1/3 frames of 3.33 ERA ball with the Athletics and (following a 2015 trade) the Astros. He headed into the 2015-16 offseason as a highly sought-after commodity and landed a three-year, $48MM pact with the Dodgers that proved regrettable for the club when neck and hip injuries wiped out years two and three of that pact.
It’s been a long time since Kazmir was at the top of his game, but he’s nevertheless a three-time All-Star with six career seasons featuring a sub-4.00 ERA and at least 140 innings of work. In total, Kazmir has a 4.01 ERA with 8.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.01 HR/9 and a 40.2 percent ground-ball rate in 1689 2/3 innings at the MLB level. Given that the free-agent class has been largely picked over at this point in the winter, a returning Kazmir adds a source of genuine intrigue to the dwindling remnants of this year’s class of open-market starters.
MLBTR Poll: Will The Dodgers Swing A Blockbuster Trade?
The Dodgers entered the winter in a gloomy state after a bitterly disappointing end to the 2019 season. But the team’s outlook remains exceptionally bright, with a compelling mix of established veterans, elite young talent, and quality role players along with the means to bolster and/or supplement that group as desired.
Despite the Dodgers’ regular-season and postseason successes — the team has seven-straight NL West titles and made it to the World Series in 2017 and 2018 — the lack of a ring and the stunning recent NLDS wash-out have left a lingering sense that something more or different could or even should be done. Reporting indicates there’s an internal a desire to shake things up in some manner, though obviously the front office isn’t inclined to reinvent the wheel.
It’s not unlike the sunny malaise experienced by the organization’s forebears in Brooklyn. Those Dodgers had an enormously successful decade without a crown (1945 to 1954) and fell short in the World Series four times in seven years (1947 to 1953). They waited ’til next year until finally breaking through in 1955.
The present-day Dodgers hope it won’t be quite that dramatic when they finally win it all. But there are quite a few more MLB teams and playoff rounds now than there used to be, making it harder to control randomness. That increases the appeal of prioritizing long-term competitiveness — the Nationals’ own recent breakthrough helps demonstrate this — but also perhaps speaks in favor of maximizing those clear chances that do arise to win it all.
The Dodgers have managed to walk an impressive line between long and short-term goals. Still, it hasn’t come together quite yet. With so many pieces already in place, the focus entering the present offseason was on adding true impact talent. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman spoke of having a dozen-player wish list. While the club has made a few targeted investments in buy-low, high-upside pitchers, it has yet to swing a major deal for a star player.
Surely some or most of the L.A. targets are already off the board in one way or another — all of the top free agents have signed, of course — but there’s little doubt that a few remain available. We’ve long heard, especially, that the Dodgers maintain interest in superstars Mookie Betts of the Red Sox and Francisco Lindor of the Indians. Cleveland ace Mike Clevinger is another who has come up in rumors. And it stands to reason there are a few other high-quality players of interest.
Dodgers president/CEO Stan Kasten said earlier this winter that the organization is “laser-focused” on winning a World Series after coming maddeningly close in recent years. “There are guys that we think could be difference makers and we have pursued them, we are continuing to pursue them, when there is an opportunity we will certainly jump at it,” Kasten explained.
The clock is ticking but there’s time left before Spring Training opens. A mid-camp strike is less likely but perhaps not out of the realm of possibility. So … do you think the Dodgers will pull off a blockbuster before the start of the season?
(Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)
Will The Dodgers Pull Off A Blockbuster?
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Nope! 52% (9,031)
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They'll strike a deal with the Red Sox for Mookie 26% (4,582)
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They'll get Lindor and/or Clevinger from the Indians 11% (1,878)
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They'll find a match on some other star player 11% (1,874)
Total votes: 17,365
Free Agent Spending By Team: National League
With the clear exception of the still-unsigned Yasiel Puig, free agency is almost devoid of high-upside contributors at this point. The majority of players capable of securing guaranteed contracts have already come off the board, making this a good time to check in on which teams have spent the most and which clubs have paid the least via the open market. We’ve already gone through the same exercise for the American League, where the Yankees have returned to the top of the heap as the biggest spenders in their league and in the sport in general. Meanwhile, over in the Senior Circuit, reigning world champion Washington clearly isn’t resting on its laurels after a storybook playoff run…
Nationals: $316.75MM on 10 players (Stephen Strasburg, Will Harris, Daniel Hudson, Starlin Castro, Yan Gomes, Howie Kendrick, Eric Thames, Asdrubal Cabrera, Ryan Zimmerman and Kyle Finnegan; financial details unclear for Finnegan; top 50 MLBTR signings: four)
Reds: $164MM on four players (Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, Shogo Akiyama and Wade Miley; top 50 signings: four)
Phillies: $132MM on two players (Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius; top 50 signings: two)
Braves: $116.25MM on nine players (Will Smith, Marcell Ozuna, Cole Hamels, Travis d’Arnaud, Chris Martin, Nick Markakis, Tyler Flowers, Darren O’Day, Adeiny Hechavarria; top 50 signings: five)
Diamondbacks: $109.65MM on five players (Madison Bumgarner, Kole Calhoun, Hector Rondon, Stephen Vogt and Junior Guerra; top 50 signings: two)
Brewers: $48.38MM on eight players (Avisail Garcia, Josh Lindblom, Justin Smoak, Brett Anderson, Eric Sogard, Alex Claudio, Ryon Healy and Deolis Guerra; financial details unclear for Healy and Guerra; top 50 signings: two)
Padres: $48MM on three players (Drew Pomeranz, Craig Stammen and Pierce Johnson; top 50 signings: three)
Mets: $24.35MM on four players (Dellin Betances, Rick Porcello, Michael Wacha and Brad Brach; top 50 signings: three)
Marlins: $23.855MM on five players (Corey Dickerson, Brandon Kintzler, Francisco Cervelli, Matt Joyce and Yimi Garcia; financial details unclear for Joyce; top 50 signings: one)
Giants: $17.775MM on four players (Kevin Gausman, Drew Smyly, Tony Watson and Tyler Anderson; top 50 signings: one)
Dodgers: $15.25MM on three players (Blake Treinen, Alex Wood and Jimmy Nelson; top 50 signings: one)
Cardinals: $15MM on three players (Adam Wainwright, Kwang-hyun Kim and Matt Wieters; top 50 signings: one)
Cubs: $2.5MM on three players (Steven Souza Jr., Jeremy Jeffress and Ryan Tepera; top 50 signings: zero)
Pirates: Signed OF Guillermo Heredia and C Luke Maile (financial details unclear; top 50 signings: zero)
Rockies: Signed RHP Jose Mujica (financial details unclear; top 50 signings: zero)
Latest On Reds’ Trade Talks
We haven’t been alone in wondering whether the Reds’ slate of offseason moves set the stage for a major swap to bring in a high-end player. But that may not be in the plans, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link).
Notably, per the report, there have been some eyebrow-raising negotiations this winter. The Reds, Dodgers, and Indians discussed a deal that would’ve brought Corey Seager to Cincinnati and sent Francisco Lindor to L.A., with the Cleveland organization adding young talent. The Reds also held talks on scenarios in which they’d land Lindor.
It’s always fun to hear of big names being tossed around, but in this case it doesn’t seem the chatter gained any traction. At the moment, per Rosenthal, “talks involving Lindor appear dormant.”
That being said, adding two veteran outfielders to the mix certainly has created a crowded picture for the Reds. And the team is reportedly holding some talks regarding youngster Nick Senzel. From some angles, it still seems that further discussions could be sensible.
Trouble is, Rosenthal notes, the Reds’ intervening signings have absorbed the payroll flexibility that might’ve been needed to land Lindor. While Seager is cheaper, it’s not at all clear that he’s really in play as the Dodgers pursue other opportunities.
As ever, the situation can turn on a dime. And we’re certainly not seeing the entirety of the picture here. But it seems at minimum that the Reds did not ink Nick Castellanos with anything like a specific plan in place to pull off a corresponding trade. It’s equally true, though, that the Reds now have the flexibility — in young talent, if not payroll — to jump on an opportunity should one arise.