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Marlins Rumors: Payroll, Yelich, Realmuto, Analytics

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Though the Marlins fielded a $115MM payroll last season in Jeffrey Loria’s final year of ownership, the financial plan of the Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter ownership group doesn’t call for payroll to return to those heights until 2021, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. Jackson cites a pair of copies of the financial plan provided to potential investors, entitled Project Wolverine, in providing a number of details on the Marlins’ upcoming year-to-year payrolls as well as some aggressive revenue and attendance projections.

Notably, while the Marlins are aiming for a payroll around $90MM in 2018, the plan projects even lower payrolls in 2019-20 ($81MM and $84.8MM, respectively), before jumping back into the nine-figure range. Part of the reason for the healthier number in 2018 could be the one-time $50MM payout that all 30 MLB teams are receiving after Disney’s acquisition of BAMTech, per Jackson. (Beyond that, Edinson Volquez, Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa will be off the books after 2018.) It’s unclear whether trades of additional MLB assets will significantly alter those projections, though Jackson notes that Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto and Starlin Castro are available “for the right price,” while the team is (unsurprisingly) amenable to trading Tazawa ($7MM in 2018) and Ziegler ($9MM in ’18).

A bit more out of Miami…

  • If the Marlins do hang onto Yelich, he could once again be ticketed for left field duty, reports MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. Yelich and Marcell Ozuna flipped positions this past season, with Yelich moving from left field to center field, but the acquisition of Magneuris Sierra (in the trade that sent Ozuna to St. Louis) gives Miami a center field option with elite speed. Miami could line up an outfield with Yelich in left, Sierra in center and speedy Braxton Lee in right field, giving the Fish a rangy trio that is lacking in the power department. However, Frisaro notes that Miami is still open to adding another right field option (be it via trade or a presumably low-cost option on the free agent market).
  • At least 15 teams have called the Marlins on Yelich, per Frisaro, while another dozen or so are showing interest in Realmuto. Miami isn’t willing to move either player for anything less than a substantial overpay in terms of prospects and young talent, though. Frisaro lists the Cardinals, Phillies, Braves and D-backs as teams that have spoken to Miami about Yelich.
  • Tim Healey of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel takes a look at the Marlins’ growing analytics department, reporting that former Yankees executive Dan Greenlee will now oversee the department. Former analytics head Jason Pare recently took a job as an assistant general manager with the Braves under new GM Alex Anthopoulos, and while Greenlee was initially tabbed as an interim head of the department, he’ll now oversee those operations on a permanent basis. Miami has also hired a new senior analyst (Myles Lewis), promoted analyst Michael Lord to analytics coordinator and is still seeking to hire another developer and another data analyst.

Cubs Rumblings: Arrieta, Darvish, Cobb, Cole, Yelich

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The latest on the North Siders comes from Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago…

  • To this point, the Cubs and Cardinals have shown the most interest in free agent right-hander Jake Arrieta, according to Levine. The Cubs reportedly may be willing to offer a four-year, $110MM contract to the soon-to-be 32-year-old Arrieta, who mostly thrived with the team from 2013-17.
  • Elsewhere on the pitching market, the Cubs remain in contact with Yu Darvish and Alex Cobb, per Levine, though he casts doubt on them being the favorites to sign the latter. They’re wary of Cobb’s asking price, which appears to be in the $17MM to $19MM range per annum, Levine relays.
  • Along with the previously reported Chris Archer, the Cubs are interested in swinging a trade for Pirates righty Gerrit Cole, Levine writes. This is the first reported connection of the offseason between the Cubs and Cole, who has mostly been linked to the Yankees. Talks between the Yankees and Pirates simmered last month, though, which could pave the way for another team to swoop in and land the 27-year-old. Given that Chicago and Pittsburgh are in the same division, the Cubs are obviously quite familiar with Cole. The Scott Boras client is under control for the next two seasons, and he’ll earn a projected $7.5MM in 2018.
  • Looking beyond starting pitching possibilities, Levine doesn’t rule out more additions to the Cubs’ bullpen or position player group. With Wade Davis having signed with the Rockies, the Cubs could be in the market for a closer if they don’t want to turn the ninth-inning reins to either of the just-signed Brandon Morrow–Steve Cishek tandem or another in-house option. But whether the team bids on a top free agent like Greg Holland or Addison Reed could depend on how much spending room it has left after it picks up another starter, per Levine. Further, it’s possible the Cubs could try to trade for Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich, who would likely cost them fellow center fielder Albert Almora Jr. in a deal, Levine contends. He also lists free agent center fielder Lorenzo Cain as a name to watch for the Cubs.

Details On Project Wolverine

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Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald has obtained two versions of Project Wolverine – the operational plan of new Marlins owners Derek Jeter and Bruce Sherman – one of which is from August and the other from a couple months before. According to the document, whose name stems from Jeter’s home state of Michigan (the Wolverine State), the Marlins will turn a profit in 2018. Most of that will come from MLB’s sale of BAMTech to Disney, which entitles each team to a one-time payout of $50MM. Otherwise, exactly how much of a profit the Marlins will rake in next season is going to depend largely on their television deal with Fox, Jackson explains.

Back in August, Jeter and Sherman forecast a $68MM “cash flow” profit, but they projected $44.8MM would come via an up-front payment from a renegotiated TV contract with Fox. There hasn’t been a renegotiation yet, though, and if it doesn’t occur, the Marlins’ projected profits would drop to $23MM or lower for next season, Jackson reports. The Marlins’ pact with Fox runs through 2020 and ranks as the lowest-paying TV contract in the majors, and as Jackson notes, it’s a key reason why the team is unwilling to field a larger payroll. Additionally, as of August, the Marlins expected a 2018 spike in attendance revenue, but that now looks questionable at best with fan favorites Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna having been traded in payroll-slashing deals. Looking beyond next season, Jeter and Sherman projected profits of $10MM in 2019, $15.8MM in 2020 and $22MM in 2021 in August, details Jackson, whose piece is well worth a full read.

"Nothing Imminent" With Either Christian Yelich Or J.T. Realmuto

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More on the Fish and a couple other East Coast franchises:

The Marlins continue to discuss center fielder Christian Yelich and catcher J.T. Realmuto with other clubs, but there’s “nothing imminent” on the trade front, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com hears (Twitter link). Although the Marlins are in teardown mode, it would reportedly take a “huge overpay” for them to deal either Yelich or Realmuto, their two most valuable assets. The 26-year-old Yelich is controllable through 2022 on one of the majors’ most appealing contracts, while Realmuto (27 in March) is set to play his first of three arbitration-eligible campaigns in 2018. Kyle Downing of MLBTR examined Yelich, Realmuto and the rest of Miami’s trade candidates over the weekend.

  • Miami traded both Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna earlier this offseason, thus subtracting a pair of in-their-prime sluggers who combined for a whopping 96 home runs in 2017. Now, with those two in other uniforms, the organization is “looking for guys who can provide power in the middle of the lineup,” vice president of player development and scouting Gary Denbo told Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Unsurprisingly, though, the Marlins aren’t competing for high-level free agents who would serve as short-term upgrades, per Frisaro, who writes that “their vision is more long range.”

Marlins Have Reportedly Made Offer To Ji-Man Choi

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  • First baseman Ji-Man Choi’s agency in Korea recently spoke to the media about their client’s current foray into free agency and revealed that he’s received offers (presumably of the minor league variety) from the Yankees, Angels, Rays, A’s, Brewers, Marlins, Cubs, Reds, Orioles, Twins, Braves, Blue Jays and White Sox (English link via Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency). The 26-year-old Choi slugged a pair of homers in 18 plate appearances with the Yankees last year and posted a strong year with their Triple-A affiliate, slashing .288/.373/.538 in 87 games. In parts of five Triple-A campaigns, Choi has posted a robust .298/.390/.479 batting line.

Taking Inventory: Miami Marlins

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In an effort to cut payroll, the new Marlins ownership group (headlined by Derek Jeter) has already kicked off a fire sale of major league assets. They’ve traded three significant players so far in Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna, and only the latter of the three netted any significant prospect haul. Miami has succeeded in getting big salaries off the books, but their farm system still looks bleak and lacks top-rated prospects (though some pitchers in their system have upside).

So while the team has already completed its stated salary-slashing objective, the moves made so far have put the franchise in an in-between kind of state. Miami finished last season with a 77-85 record, and then traded away three players who were worth a combined 15 fWAR. The only major league asset who came back in return was Starlin Castro, who was worth about 2 fWAR in 2017. All told, the Marlins’ roster looks about 13 wins worse than last season, which in theory would make them about as good as last year’s Tigers club.

Of course, it doesn’t exactly work that way, but the writing on the wall here is that the Marlins aren’t going to do a whole lot of winning next season. They’d face enormous odds in challenging the Nationals for the NL East crown. Aside from that, their farm system is dwarfed by those of the division-rival Braves and Phillies, both of whom are on the rise. Clearly the club isn’t planning on improving the team through free agency, as that would counteract the enormous effort the team made to reduce payroll. As such, there appears to be no reason to stop selling now. There are a few players on the roster who could help the Fish add significant prospects to their minor league ranks and improve the organization’s future outlook…

Two Years of Control

Starlin Castro, 2B ($22MM owed through 2019, including $1MM buyout of $16MM option for 2020): When Castro came to Miami in the Stanton deal, trade speculation began immediately. There’s probably some surplus value to be had in the 27-year-old’s contract considering his reasonable salary and the fact that he’s still in his prime. With the Marlins having already met their payroll-related goals, they probably even have the flexibility to pay some of his salary in order to get better prospects in exchange. Castro is coming off a .300/.338/.454 season, but poor defensive play at second limits his value to an extent.

Longer-Term Assets

J.T. Realmuto, C ($4.2MM projected arb salary for 2018): MLBTR has already talked about Realmuto’s trade candidacy at length this month (including an in-depth piece on his market), so I’ll keep this short. Realmuto has already requested a trade, and although he doesn’t have any real leverage in the matter, he seems a likely candidate to be wearing another uniform even before he hits free agency following the 2020 season. The Marlins catcher was worth at least 3.5 fWAR in each of the past two seasons, and plenty of contenders and up-and-comers would love to have that kind of value coming from a premium position on the diamond. It would, however, take a reportedly “huge overpay” to pry him out of Miami’s hands.

"<strongChristian Yelich, OF ($44.5MM owed through 2021, including $1.25MM buyout of $15MM option for 2022): Yelich has also been one of the more common names to pop up in trade rumors this offseason. He’s easily the Marlins’ most valuable asset; the former first round pick has been worth about 16 fWAR across the past four seasons combined. With five more years of team control, however, there’s at least a chance he could be part of the next winning Marlins club at a very reasonable price, so there’s less of a reason for the team to move him there is to move other assets. Among the plusses for Yelich are good defense in the outfield, a 10.7% career walk rate and improved baserunning ability.

Dan Straily, RHP ($4.6MM projected arbitration salary for 2018): While Straily isn’t as talented (or receiving as much trade attention) as elite options like Michael Fulmer, Chris Archer and Gerrit Cole, he’s a league-average MLB talent who could be made available in a thin and expensive market for pitching. Straily posted a 4.26 ERA in 2017 along with a 2.83 K/BB ratio and comes with three years of team control.

Justin Bour, 1B ($3.5MM projected arbitration salary for 2018): Amidst Marlins rumors, it’s somewhat of a surprise to me that Bour’s name hasn’t been mentioned more often. Miami’s left-handed-hitting first baseman enjoyed a breakout season in 2017 prior to an oblique injury. Upon his return in early September, he picked up right where he left off, and ultimately finished the season with an outstanding .289/.366/.536 slash line to go with 25 home runs across just 429 plate appearances. With the Rockies, Angels and Mariners still looking for first base help, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the market for Bour heat up at some point. He wouldn’t come cheap, though, as he’s cost-effective and controllable through arbitration from 2018-2020.

Kyle Barraclough, RHRP (League minimum salary for 2018): Barraclough has a sky-high career strikeout rate 12.05 K/9), but carries the downside of an equally absurd walk rate (5.52 BB/9). The net result is a sort of effectively-wild performance that’s led to fantastic career run-prevention numbers, headlined by a 2.87 ERA. With elite relievers becoming more and more in demand, it’s conceivable Barraclough could net a hefty return.

Derek Dietrich, INF ($3.2MM projected arbitration salary for 2018): Though he’s not a full-time player, Dietrich has managed to accrue at least 1.5 fWAR in each of the past two seasons, and can play both second and third base. He’d be a cheap utility infield option on a contending team, and comes with three years of team control. He hit .249/.334/.424 in 2017 with 13 homers, making him a nearly average offensive player at 99 wRC+.

Salary Dump Candidates

Wei-Yin Chen, LHP ($60MM owed through 2020, with a $16MM vesting option for 2021): Simply put, this offseason would be the worst possible time to trade Chen. After missing most of the season due to elbow issues, Chen returned to make just four appearances out of the bullpen in September prior to being shut down. While he was generally good when on the field (3.82 ERA, 3.73 FIP), the Marlins would have an incredibly difficult time trying to move any of his salary until he can settle concerns about his elbow.

Martin Prado, 3B ($28.5MM owed through 2019): Prado is coming off a dreadful 2017 season in which he was able to muster just 147 plate appearances due to multiple injuries. He posted just a 67 wRC+ across that time, and will enter the 2018 season at 34 years of age. There have been reports that the Marlins might try to attach Prado to a trade of a more valuable asset in order to clear his salary, but like Chen, it might be the wrong time to trade him. After all, he averaged 3 WAR from 2014-2016 thanks to a .295/.341/.407 slash line and elite defense at the hot corner.

Brad Ziegler, RHRP ($9MM salary for 2018): The issue with Ziegler is his recent inability to miss bats. The righty struck out fewer than five batters per nine innings in 2018 and experienced a steep drop in velocity on his sinker. All told, Ziegler was tagged for 25 earned runs in 47 innings. Perhaps he’s another candidate to re-established value prior to the trade deadline, but he’s also 38 years old; it’s also possible the Marlins could be better served simply trying to find a taker for as much of his salary as possible.

Junichi Tazawa, RHRP ($7MM salary for 2018): See Ziegler. Okay, not exactly, but Tazawa’s outlook isn’t much more promising other than the fact that he’s seven years younger. The righty is two years removed from his last respectable season. Last year was his worst performance yet: he was valued below replacement level thanks to a 5.69 ERA and 4.96 FIP. Miami’s best chance to move his salary would be to try to include him in a trade along with Realmuto, Yelich or another contract with significant excess value.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

National League Notes: Rockies, Realmuto, Yelich, Taillon

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Dave Cameron of Fangraphs postulates that the Rockies need to upgrade more than just their bullpen if they hope to be successful in 2018. He wonders if their additions so far “haven’t improved them as much as prevented them from getting worse.” At first glance, one could say that Wade Davis and Bryan Shaw are probably improvements over Greg Holland and Pat Neshek, respectively. However, considering the low WAR contribution from relievers in comparison to other players, those upgrades seem marginal. The team still has big questions to answer at first base, and in the outfield, so although they seem to have the best bullpen in the NL as it stands right now, they need to make impactful additions in other areas or rely on significant improvements from members of their current roster. After all, projections have them significantly behind the Dodgers in the NL West, as well as St. Louis and Arizona in the Wild Card race.

Questions continue to pop up when looking towards the future. Cameron notes that the 2017 iteration of the Rockies worked in large part because Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado provided them with over 12 fWAR at just $20MM between them. Unfortunately for Colorado, Blackmon is set to reach free agency at the end of 2018, and it would take a significant raise on his current salary to bring him back. The same is true for Arenado the year following. The bullpen contracts the team dished out this year will cost them something in the neighborhood of $35MM per season through 2020; that puts a significant constraint on their ability to retain their stars or further build through free agency. Cameron’s article raises some important questions about the Rockies’ offseason moves so far, and is worth a full read.

More news from around the National League as we approach New Year’s Eve…

  • Speculation surrounding Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto and outfielder Christian Yelich has been heating up lately, and Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reports that while the club is willing to listen on their two most valuable remaining trade assets, actually moving either player would require a “huge overpay”. Frisaro adds that the team is not looking to “water down” the return for either of them, making a potential salary dump inclusion of Martin Prado or Brad Ziegler less likely. MLBTR profiled Realmuto’s trade candidacy on Christmas Day, listing the Nationals, Rockies and Diamondbacks as good fits in theory. He’s projected for just a $4.2MM salary next season, and can be controlled through arbitration for two more years after that. As for Yelich, he’s been worth an average of 4 fWAR in each of the past four seasons and is owed just $43.25MM through 2021 thanks to a team-friendly contract extension.
  • Jameson Taillon had a tough battle with cancer last season, causing him to miss significant time during the season. But the resilient Pirates righty is feeling confident headed into the 2018 season, and Adam Berry of MLB.com has the inside scoop. “You spend time in the clubhouse and know we have a lot of good guys as humans that are extremely determined to get better,” Taillon said. He’s reportedly working on new pitch grips and developing plans for how to attack hitters in the upcoming season. Taillon finished last season with a 4.44 ERA, though his 3.48 FIP paints a decidedly more attractive picture of his potential.

D-Backs, Braves, Giants Have Some Interest In Christian Yelich

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  • Numerous teams are obviously preparing to pursue Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich, who the Fish are reportedly increasingly willing to deal. Just how likely is a deal? Heyman cites a few sources who describe the situation as one in which the club is making Yelich and teammate J.T. Realmuto available in talks. Among the organizations with some level of interest in Yelich, per Heyman, are the Diamondbacks, Braves, and Giants. No doubt there are plenty of others, too, that will line up for both players.

Marlins Open To Trade Talks About Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto

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7:24pm: The Nationals asked about Realmuto during the Winter Meetings but were told that the Marlins weren’t planning to deal him, MLB.com’s Jamal Collier reports.  Matt Wieters’ struggles in 2017 make Washington a natural candidate to look for a catching upgrade, though Collier notes that it isn’t GM Mike Rizzo’s style to make a huge trade offer for Realmuto that the Marlins couldn’t refuse.

5:34pm: The Marlins are in “active trade discussions” about outfielder Christian Yelich and catcher J.T. Realmuto, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (Twitter link).  No trade is imminent, Morosi notes, and the exact nature of Miami’s willingness to deal either of its controllable young stars isn’t yet determined.

According to Clark Spencer and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, three sources give slightly different descriptions of the talks.  One source says the Marlins are “more seriously considering offers” than in the past, and are particularly listening on Yelich.  Another source says that the Marlins are listening to offers but “not aggressively shopping” either player, while the third source says rival teams have been informed by Miami that Yelich and Realmuto “are available for the right price.”

It’s worth noting that none of these three takes on the situation really contradict each other, and ultimately, the Marlins could simply be doing their due diligence in exploring what they could get for two very valuable trade chips.  There have been conflicting reports on whether the Marlins were really looking to move Yelich (or Realmuto), or if the team had completed much of its heavy lifting in terms of payroll clearance in previous trades of Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon, and (to a lesser extent) Marcell Ozuna.

Both Yelich and Realmuto have been disappointed with this latest Miami rebuild, with Realmuto going so far as to reportedly ask for a trade.  Since both players are under team control (Yelich via an extension, Realmuto via arbitration) for several more years, they don’t have any real leverage to make a deal happen, though obviously the Marlins could see value in moving players that no longer want to be there, especially when those two players could bring back multiple young assets in return.

As Jackson and Spencer note in their piece, the Marlins could try to capitalize on Yelich and Realmuto’s trade value by attaching one of their remaining big contracts (i.e. Martin Prado, Brad Ziegler, Junichi Tazawa) to either of those players in a trade.  Multiple teams have been linked to Yelich for months now, while Realmuto would certainly generate almost as much interest, even from teams that may have a solid catcher in place but could be swayed by the idea of landing a younger option.

Marlins Still Listening To Trade Offers

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  • MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tackles questions from Marlins fans in his latest inbox.  As of now, Frisaro expects Christian Yelich and J.T. Realmuto to be back with the team next year, though the team is “open to listening on everyone.”  He notes that the Orioles are “known to have interest” in 29-year-old righty Dan Straily, who is under team control through 2020.  Clearly, there is no urgency for the Marlins to deal controllable, affordable players like these.
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