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A’s Interested In Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna

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The Athletics are beginning to amass an impressive young core, led by corner infielders Matt Olson and Matt Chapman, and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that they’re seeking a controllable outfielder this winter as a means of adding to that core. Among the team’s targets, per Slusser, are Marlins stars Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna.

Oakland picked up highly touted Dustin Fowler in the trade that sent Sonny Gray to the Yankees, and the team also has top shortstop prospect Franklin Barreto on the cusp of MLB readiness. Fowler will compete for the center field job next spring, and Barreto projects to be with the club by midseason. That young group is complemented by solid veterans like Jed Lowrie and Khris Davis.

Per Slusser, Oakland’s preference is to add a right-handed bat, though their interest in Yelich would suggest they’re not necessarily set on players of a certain handedness. Yelich’s contract, of course, plays a significant role in that interest as well. He’s owed $44.5MM through the 2021 season and also has a $15MM club option for the 2022 season. Ozuna, meanwhile, would certainly fit the criteria of a big right-handed corner outfield bat. However, he’s controllable only for another two years and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $10.9MM next season.

Yelich’s 2017 season wasn’t quite as impressive as his 2016 campaign, but he’s still posted an excellent .290/.373/.460 batting line over his past 1180 MLB plate appearances. That, paired with high-quality left-field defense and a capability to handle center field, has made him worth roughly nine wins above replacement since Opening Day 2016.

Ozuna, meanwhile, belted a career-best 37 homers in 2017 and slashed .312/.376/.548 along the way. Over his past two seasons, he’s slashed .290/.350/.503 with 60 homers. Questions about his glove in center field caused the Marlins to flip him with Yelich this season, and Ozuna responded with well-above-average defense in left field (+11 DRS, +3.4 UZR).

[Related: Oakland Athletics payroll outlook and depth chart]

Ozuna and Yelich are just two of many possibilities for the A’s to pursue this winter. The Cardinals have a noted glut of outfielders and are widely expected to shop Randal Grichuk and/or Stephen Piscotty. One would imagine that the White Sox would be open to dealing Avisail Garcia, though like Ozuna, he’s controlled only for another two seasons. Across town in Chicago, the Cubs have a glut of young position players, with switch-hitting Ian Happ an oft-rumored trade possibility. Speculating further, the Reds could be open to offers on Adam Duvall. Oakland doesn’t have any intention to trade from its big league roster, Slusser notes, with the possible exception of first baseman/DH Ryon Healy. (Trading Healy, she points out, would allow the A’s to move Khris Davis to DH.)

The A’s will have no shortage of options as they explore their corner needs this summer, and though payroll is always a concern in Oakland, their clean payroll slate makes it plausible for them to take on some dollars in 2018 and beyond. Oakland has just $18MM in guaranteed money on the 2018 books — $6MM to each of Lowrie, Santiago Casilla and Matt Joyce — plus another roughly $34MM in projected arbitration salary. Beyond the 2018 season, Oakland doesn’t have a single guaranteed dollar on the ledger, putting the A’s in position to take on a player already on a multi-year deal or one who is projected to begin earning substantial salaries via arbitration.

Latest On Shohei Otani

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2:23pm: There’s a “tentative understanding” in place simply to extend the prior posting regime for another year, Sherman reports. The MLBPA has yet to weigh in on the subject, though, and there’s still not a final deal in place.

1:31pm: In the wake of Shohei Otani’s decision to hire a MLBPA-certified player representative, it seems that there’ll be a renewed push to figure out a way to resolve the impasse that has threatened to derail his planned move to the majors. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that there’s a sense that the move will help facilitate an agreement that all involved will approve.

Indeed, Otani’s reps at CAA are scheduled to “meet soon” with the player’s association to attempt to get on the same page in an effort to sort things out, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets. That’s just the first step here, of course, as Otani and the MLBPA will still need to engage with Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball — the two entities that are primarily negotiating a new system governing inter-league player transfers.

The difficulties here are tied to two factors: first, MLB’s rules capping international bonuses on certain younger international free agents; and second, the expiration of the prior posting system. There was a time when Otani’s current team, the Nippon Ham Fighters, might have auctioned Otani’s negotiating rights for something approaching or even exceeding nine figures while Otani might have commanded a guarantee of as much or more. Under the just-expired transfer system, the Fighters would at least have stood to receive the maximum allowable $20MM fee. But that’s no longer how things work.

The transfer rules currently under contemplation would do away with the (up-to) $20MM flat-fee approach in favor of one that would allow the NPB team to earn a percentage of the bonus the posted player negotiates. If Otani was free to seek his market value, that wouldn’t likely pose a problem. But his earnings are now severely limited; while he is evidently at peace with that, his would-be former team is obviously not enamored of the possibility of losing its best player for what would be relative peanuts.

Under MLB’s current international rules, MLB clubs can’t go past their international spending pools (as supplemented via trade) to sign Otani. Those are even more limited than might be realized, though, due to teams’ preexisting commitments with young international players. (This was already known, of course, though the details remained fuzzy.)

According to a report from the Associated Press, only six teams even have enough uncommitted pool space to offer Otani seven figures. The Rangers ($3.535MM), Yankees ($3.25MM), and Twins ($3.245MM) easily lead the way, with the Pirates ($2.2MM+), Marlins ($1.74MM), and Mariners ($1.57MM+) also have some money to spend — or, perhaps, to trade to a would-be Otani suitor. For someone who is expected to be an immediate and significant contributor at the major-league level, that’s a pittance no matter the precise amount. Of course, he’ll also have a chance to make significant income off the field and through a future extension or trip through arbitration.

Looking For A Match In A Marcell Ozuna Trade

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While the potential of a Giancarlo Stanton trade seems to be dominating headlines in Miami, the Marlins have plenty of other players who could potentially be on the move this winter as they look to cut payroll. In particular, a trade of outfielder Marcell Ozuna has the potential to bring back a big haul in terms of prospects while saving the Marlins something in the neighborhood of $25MM over the next two seasons. As a client of Scott Boras, Ozuna is unlikely to sign any sort of extension to remain in Miami, so the organization seems likely to at least explore some trade scenarios this winter.

When considering the possibility of an Ozuna trade, one has to take into account that the Marlins don’t seem to be in any rush to move him. The team reportedly values his contributions highly, and seems more focused on finding trade partners for other players, including Stanton, Dee Gordon and Martin Prado. Any trade involving Ozuna will likely have to meet the Marlins’ asking price without much in the way of wiggle room.

That being said, there would seem to be no shortage of suitors for the two-time All-Star. Ozuna has experience at all three outfield positions (though his defense in center field leaves something to be desired), and packs a wallop from the right side of the plate. His 37 homers and breakout .312/.376/.548 batting line across 679 plate appearances in 2017 could have teams around the league salivating at the mere thought of him being shopped. MLBTR’s arbitration projection model expects him to earn $10.9MM in 2018, which is a considerable sum but certainly a bargain on a 4.8 fWAR player. It would be more difficult to think of contending teams that don’t have a need for Ozuna than to list off those who do.

The key to finding the best suitors for Ozuna comes down to a question of which contending teams have the kind of high-ceiling prospects necessary to wow the Marlins, along with a hole in their outfield gaping enough to give that talent up. For example, the Astros have the kind of prospects that could get a deal done, but probably wouldn’t be interested in paying such a high price to upgrade over serviceable players like Josh Reddick and Marwin Gonzalez. Conversely, the Arizona Diamondbacks have a J.D. Martinez-sized hole in their outfield but lack the kind of headliner prospect necessary to tempt Ozuna away from the Fish.

One potential match that comes to mind is the Nationals. With Jayson Werth set to become a free agent, Ozuna could take over left field. It’s unlikely the Nats would be willing to part with Victor Robles, but even Juan Soto and Carter Kieboom could provide a good starting point. On the other hand, while it makes some sense on paper, division rivals don’t often make trades of that magnitude with each other. To make matters more complicated, the Nationals are already likely to exceed the luxury tax threshold in 2018, and adding another $10.9MM salary to the books would only make things worse.

The Rays, Braves and Blue Jays all own multiple prospects in MLB Pipeline’s top 25, and all three teams could plug a considerable hole with the addition of Ozuna. However, one has to wonder if any of these teams are complete enough to warrant the kind of all-in move that an Ozuna trade would represent. It certainly helps that he comes with two years of team control and would therefore be more than simply a rental.

The Indians are an interesting option. While they have a glut of outfield options after picking up the option on Michael Brantley, they could really benefit from a right-handed outfielder to balance out all the lefties, including Brantley, Lonnie Chisenhall, Bradley Zimmer and Jason Kipnis. One could see an alignment in which Ozuna slots in as their everyday right fielder while Brantley plays first base or DH and Kipnis plays at second. Cleveland holds blue-chip prospects in Francisco Mejia and Triston McKenzie.

The Cardinals are worth mentioning, since they would probably have some level of interest considering their reported pursuit of Stanton. They have a number of top 100 prospects in their system and a 40-man roster crunch that could make it worth dealing a couple of them.

One match that seems to stand out above the rest, however, is the Los Angeles Dodgers. Their outfield is deep, but they’re lacking in truly elite corner outfielders and they probably wouldn’t have trouble tacking on an extra $10.9MM in payroll. To boot, their farm system is one of the deepest in baseball. One could imagine them dangling Alex Verdugo or Yadier Alvarez as a starting point, and adding to the package from there. In theory, the Dodgers seem like a really good match for an Ozuna trade.

As I mentioned earlier, the Marlins certainly don’t need to trade Ozuna this winter, especially if they’re more focused on moving other players. If they want to, however, they’d find no shortage of interested teams. The market for Ozuna would be strong, so Miami ought to seriously consider the possibility.

Wei-Yin Chen Sticking With Marlins

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Left-hander Wei-Yin Chen informed the Marlins that he will not opt out of the remaining three years and $52MM on his contract, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports. Considering the injury and performance issues he has had during his two-year Marlins tenure, there was no chance Chen would abandon his deal in favor of free agency. Elbow problems shelved the 32-year-old for long periods in each of the past two seasons, including for most of 2017, and he made just 27 starts and pitched to a 4.72 ERA during that 156 1/3-inning span. The five-year, $80MM contract the Marlins gave Chen prior to the 2016 season now looks like an especially damaging move for a franchise aiming to slash payroll.

Marlins, Cardinals Will Discuss Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich

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The Cardinals are more likely to trade for an impact bat than sign one, suggests Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com reported Saturday that the Cardinals are willing to offer “one of their best young pitchers” for Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton, and Goold adds that the Redbirds will have discussions with Miami about both Stanton and center fielder Christian Yelich this offseason.

Latest On Giancarlo Stanton

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The Cardinals have been linked to Giancarlo Stanton in trade speculation since the summer, and now Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com writes that the Cards are reportedly willing to offer the Marlins “one of their best young pitchers” in a Stanton trade, provided that Miami covers some of the $295MM remaining on the slugger’s enormous contract.

St. Louis is known to be looking for a difference-making bat this offseason, and few fit that description better than Stanton, fresh off a league-leading 59 homers in 2017.  Acquiring Stanton, of course, will be no easy feat, even with the Marlins looking to pare down their payroll by getting Stanton’s contract off their books.  Assuming Stanton, who has full no-trade protection, even approves of a deal to St. Louis, the Cardinals and Marlins would then have to work out what would undoubtedly be a complex set of negotiations to determine the players and money involved in such a trade.

The $295MM figure is enough to give any team pause, and Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak expressed wariness back in August about how large contracts can adversely impact a team’s performance.  It isn’t surprising that the Cards would want the Marlins to eat some of Stanton’s contract to make a deal happen, though the dollar figure will surely hinge on just how many good prospects St. Louis is willing to send Miami.

Looking at young pitching within the Cardinals’ system, names like Alex Reyes, Luke Weaver, Jack Flaherty, Sandy Alcantara, Junior Fernandez, and Dakota Hudson all stand out as candidates to be the mystery arm on offer to the Marlins.  Weaver, Flaherty, and (depending on his recovery from Tommy John surgery) Reyes are all expected to play roles on the Cardinals’ staff in 2018, however, and pitching depth will be necessary given Adam Wainwright’s struggles and Lance Lynn’s likely departure in free agency.  The Cards could deal a young starter and then acquire a veteran via trade or free agency as a replacement, though that could require another sizeable financial commitment, which the club could be hesitant to make if it did land Stanton (even with Miami eating part of the contract).

Despite Stanton’s huge production last year, it seems inevitable that the Marlins will have to cover some of the money owed in order to make a deal happen.  “Three different general managers of profitable market teams” tell Gammons that Stanton wouldn’t be claimed if he were to suddenly be placed on waivers, due to the financial commitment required to sign him.

The Red Sox have also been mentioned as a possible landing spot for Stanton, though Gammons finds it “unlikely” that the slugger would approve a deal to Boston — to this end, the Sox haven’t reached out to Joel Wolfe, Stanton’s agent.  It has been rumored that Stanton, a California native, wouldn’t approve of a trade that would keep him on the east coast, though his only stated priority is avoiding another rebuilding situation.  As Gammons notes, the Red Sox also can’t match the Cardinals when it comes to young pitching prospects that are close to MLB readiness.

Marlins Could Try Jarlin Garcia As Starter

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  • The Marlins are considering stretching out left-hander Jarlin Garcia in Spring Training to give him a shot at a starting job, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro writes.  Garcia made his MLB debut last year, posting a 4.73 ERA, 7.1 K/9 and 2.47 K/BB rate over 53 1/3 innings out of Miami’s bullpen.  His numbers worsened as the season went on, however, which add to durability concerns about Garcia’s potential as a starter; Frisaro notes that the southpaw was converted to a relief role due to past concerns about his ability to stay healthy and effective as a starter.  Assuming Garcia doesn’t run into any injury issues, the Marlins have little to lose by at least kicking the tires on his rotation potential, given how the club is sorely in need of starting pitching help.

Marlins Add Miguel Del Pozo To 40-Man

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  • The Marlins have added lefty Miguel Del Pozo to their 40-man roster. Miami is evidently interested in protecting the 25-year-old lefty from minor league free agency (and the Rule 5 draft). Del Pozo returned from Tommy John surgery this year and briefly reached Double-A for the first time. He spent most of the season at the High-A level, where he allowed only one earned run while striking out 17 and issuing five walks in 16 2/3 frames.

Marlins Hope To Trade Stanton, Gordon, Prado

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NOV. 3: Miami is informing other teams that it is willing to listen on Stanton, Gordon, and Prado but will not entertain offers on Yelich and Ozuna at this time, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). Whether the stance on the latter two players might change isn’t yet clear. It’s possible that the club wishes to focus first on the other pieces.

OCT. 30: The Marlins have identified a “preferred path” to paring the team’s slate of player contracts for the 2018 season down to $90MM, according to a report from Barry Jackson and Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. Specifically, the club would like to move the contract of star outfielder Giancarlo Stanton along with those of infielders Dee Gordon and Martin Prado.

Talk of a possible Stanton swap has been building in earnest for months. And it comes as little surprise to hear that the team is indeed preparing to market him, given its reported intentions of making significant payroll reductions in the first offseason under new ownership. Obvious as it may be that now is the time to part with the slugger, it’s notable that the team has evidently chosen its direction even as it prepares to sit down with him in a few days’ time. (Stanton, of course, enjoys full no-trade protection and so will have a major say in things.) And the team’s reported intentions perhaps hint that the focus could be on moving all of Stanton’s salary rather than maximizing the prospect return.

[RELATED: Miami Marlins Offseason Outlook]

It’s also hardly an eye-opener to learn of the availability of Gordon and Prado. Both have been discussed as trade candidates in the past, with Gordon drawing some interest last year and Prado cited as a deadline possibility before he went down to injury. Trading these three players has some initial logic, since their respective 2018 salaries add up to nearly $50MM — which would leave the club right at its stated goal in view of its other commitments. And that would leave untouched the Marlins’ best assets.

Of course, the trouble lies in the details here. Prado, in particular, clearly wouldn’t earn anything close to his remaining obligations — two years and $28.5MM — were he instead a free agent. After all, he just turned 34 and produced a .250/.279/.357 batting line over just 147 plate appearances in an injury-riddled 2017 season. Though Gordon still looks to be a productive player worthy of a regular job, he’s a slightly below-average hitter whose value lies in his speed and glovework at second. He’s still just 29, but age could be a bigger concern with that skillset. Regardless, the market is loaded with options at second, which makes Gordon’s remaining commitment — $38MM over the next three years (including a 2021 option buyout) — appear to be less than a screaming bargain. Even Stanton, fresh off of a 59-dinger outburst, arguably does not come with much or any surplus value as against the overall remaining guarantee ($295MM) in his mammoth contract.

Actually getting rid of the 2018 commitments to these three players, then, simply won’t be a matter of handing off their contracts. Even if competitors are willing to absorb the entirety of the Stanton and Gordon deals, they likely won’t be sending much in the way of talent back in return. And Prado clearly represents a possible salary dump at this point, meaning the Fish would need to send additional talent along with him if the hope is to clear his salary. Unless the team is willing to sell away prospects, that’d mean dealing other, more valuable assets from the MLB roster.

The realities of the situation make clear that the Marlins will need to oversee a net talent outflow — or, at least, a reshuffling that results in a reduction of their major league talent in favor of prospects. Yet the report also cites a source that indicates the team would rather not part with J.T. Realmuto, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Justin Bour, and Dan Straily — which doubles as a list of those Marlins players that are worth quite a bit more than they are due to earn.

Clearly, something has to give here, which the Marlins front office surely realizes. What’s perhaps most notable about the report, though, is the apparent suggestion that the team won’t independently look to deal from its base of affordable, quality talent. It goes without saying that the Marlins shouldn’t give away such players for less than a compelling return, but it’s arguably unwise to move Stanton, Gordon, and Prado while not embarking upon a broader rebuilding effort. Ozuna, especially, is getting expensive (a projected $10.9MM for 2018) and will be a free agent after 2019.

It’s understandable that the team wishes to hold onto as many recognizable players as it can, but there’d be little to no hope of a turnaround for a team that has failed to perform as hoped in recent years. Miami’s pitching staff is among the worst in baseball and obviously won’t be buttressed by any significant free-agent spending. Stanton is all but irreplaceable. Derek Dietrich could step in for Gordon, but that would mean extending him as a player and reducing his value as a utility asset. And the left side of the infield would presumably be entrusted to some combination of JT Riddle, Miguel Rojas, and Brian Anderson, an inexperienced group that hardly inspires confidence of delivering compelling output in the near future.

That being said, there is another way to read the report. Perhaps the team will still be willing to entertain offers on its more appealing assets, even if it won’t seek deals for them owing to payroll pressures. Viewed in that manner, it may be a fairly prudent approach to embarking upon a rebuild. Ultimately, from my vantage point, it would be surprising to see the Marlins open the coming season with all of Realmuto, Yelich, Ozuna, Bour, and Straily on the roster.

In other news, the Herald duo cover the latest in front office moves from the Marlins. The new ownership group has now parted ways with more than twenty employees from various departments. You’ll want to read the story for all the details.

Marlins Decline Ichiro’s Option, Claim Chad Wallach From Reds

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The Marlins announced that they’ve declined a $2MM club option on outfielder Ichiro Suzuki and also claimed catcher Chad Wallach off waivers from the Reds. The pair of moves leaves Miami’s 40-man roster count at 34 players.

Ichiro, who turned 44 two weeks ago, will see his three-year tenure with the Marlins come to an end as the team’s new ownership begins to trim salary in a reported effort to shed $40-50MM off the payroll for 2018. The future Hall of Famer had a productive second year with the Marlins in 2016, hitting .291/.354/.376 in 365 trips to the plate. However, the 2017 season saw Ichiro receive the smallest amount of playing time he’s had in Miami — just 215 plate appearances — and resulted in a dreary .255/.318/.332 batting line.

The 10-time All-Star is a Cooperstown lock, but he’s had just one season of above-average production (by measure of OPS+) in the past seven years. While it’s natural to wonder if the beloved Ichiro is nearing the end of his playing days, he recently told Tim Healey of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel that he’d continue to play until he’s “at least 50” if he continues getting opportunities. He may very well have to settle for a minor league pact this offseason, but it’s not out of the question that a team would look to bring the veteran into its outfield mix — particularly an NL club capable of carrying a deeper bench.

Wallach, who will turn 26 tomorrow, was originally drafted by the Marlins in the fifth round of the 2013 draft. Miami shipped him and right-hander Anthony DeSclafani to the Reds in exchange for a one-year rental of Mat Latos in what now looks to be a lopsided deal (DeSclafani’s injury status notwithstanding).

The son of former big league infielder Tim Wallach, Chad turned in a respectable .240/.363/.410 batting line in 243 Double-A plate appearances in 2016. However, his bat took a big step back in 2017 upon reaching Triple-A Louisville, where he batted just .226/.280/.398 and saw his strikeout rate jump nearly seven percent in the same number of PAs (243). He did make his MLB debut with the Reds in ’17, going 1-for-11 with a single and five strikeouts.

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