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Braxton Garrett To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Top Marlins prospect Braxton Garrett is undergoing Tommy John surgery today on his left elbow, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports on Twitter. The southpaw recently was diagnosed with a partially torn UCL.

The seventh overall pick in last year’s draft, Garrett entered the year with consensus top-100 billing. He showed well in 15 1/3 innings this year at the Class A level, pitching to a 2.93 ERA with 16 strikeouts against six walks, before being sidelined.

That’s difficult news for a Marlins organization that is in need of future rotation assets and is generally regarded to have one of the game’s worst farm systems. It also marks the second consecutive season in which the club’s consensus top prospect has required Tommy John surgery. A year ago, right-hander Tyler Kolek (the No. 2 overall pick in the 2014 draft), also suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament and underwent Tommy John surgery. He’s yet to return to the mound in 2017 after missing the entire ’16 campaign.

Latest On Marlins' Trade Potential

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There have been reports that the Marlins could consider dealing such major names as Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna or J.T. Realmuto at the deadline, though Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes that the Fish thus far “haven’t shown an inclination” to make a big roster shakeup.  A source tells Jackson that the Marlins are still a couple of weeks away before deciding on trading some players, including closer AJ Ramos.  Much is still in flux due to the potential sale of the team, of course, as Jackson notes that the front office would need to talk to both the new ownership group and Major League Baseball before exploring a big-ticket trade involving Giancarlo Stanton.

Marlins Rumors: Stanton, Yelich

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  • If the Marlins place right fielder Giancarlo Stanton on the trade block in the coming months, the NL East rival Phillies would be a sensible landing spot, opines Cafardo. The cellar-dwelling Phillies are a big-market team with the money and the prospects to swing a deal for Stanton (who’s due nearly $300MM over the final 10 years of his contract), observes Cafardo. Stanton has a full no-trade clause, though, so there’s no guarantee he’d approve a deal to Philadelphia or anywhere else. Further complicating matters, Cafardo has heard that the Phillies would “need” to acquire fellow Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich in a deal involving Stanton. Even though Yelich is under control for reasonable prices through the 2022 campaign, he could end up on the block.

    [SOURCE LINK]

Ramos Not A Prime Target For Nationals

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  • FanRag’s Jon Heyman runs down a number of possible needs on clubs that are in contention, beginning with the Nationals. While there’s been much made of the team’s obvious need for bullpen help, Heyman suggests that the Nats won’t simply acquire a closer and consider their relief corps to be fixed. “We don’t need just one big reliever, we need two,” a Nationals source tells Heyman. One potentially available name on which the Nationals don’t appear to be especially keen, however, is closer A.J. Ramos of the division-rival Marlins. Heyman reports in his weekly National League roundup that Ramos is a ways down Washington’s list of potential targets.

Latest On Potential Sale Of The Marlins

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The saga of the potential sale of the Marlins has been ongoing for months now, with a group led by Derek Jeter and another led by Tom Glavine and Tagg Romney believed to be at the forefront of the mix. There’s been plenty written to suggest that those groups are still in the process of raising the necessary funds to meet MLB’s debt requirements, and Charles Gasparino of FOX Business suggests that both may have hit a significant snag.

Per Gasparino, both groups are still “hundreds of millions” of dollars short of the reported $1.3 billion asking price for the Marlins, which has tabled the bidding war for the time being. Other potential buying groups, according to Gasparino, want current owner Jeffrey Loria to lower his asking price to roughly $900MM. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald cites a source in echoing Gasparino’s point that both groups are well shy of the $1.3 billion threshold.

Jackson also notes that Major League Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred appeared on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM with Craig Mish and Jim Bowden, telling the pair that he’s confident a sale of the Marlins will be completed in advance of the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.

According to Manfred, there’s been an “amazing” amount of interest in purchasing the Marlins, though the Jeter and Romney/Glavine groups are indeed the two front-runners and the two likeliest groups to complete a sale. The commissioner stated that is is “convinced the Marlins are going to sell” before suggesting that he is optimistic of a deal being reached sooner rather than later. Asked about the possibility of needing to consult with new owners before the trade deadline, Manfred replied: “I am hoping we get some clarity well before the trading deadline. … It would be best for all concerned if we got to point where we know who the new owner would be before that happens so they have some input in that process.”

At present, there haven’t been any public reports of a third serious suitor emerging. To the contrary, former Florida governor Jeb Bush bowed out of the group which he was said to be leading with Jeter, though reports since his departure have indicated that he was only lined up to commit about $10MM of his own resources to the sale. His departure doesn’t necessarily come without consequence, of course, as Bush undoubtedly could have played a significant role in rounding up investors to reach the requisite sum needed for an earnest bid.

Cafardo: Edinson Volquez Could Be Trade Candidate

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  • If the Marlins go into fire-sale mode, righty Edinson Volquez could draw interest, suggests Cafardo. The offseason signing has been lights out recently, especially during his 11-strikeout no-hitter last Saturday, and has dropped his ERA nearly a run and a half over the past three weeks (from 4.87 on May 18 to 3.41). Volquez, 33, has helped his cause by pairing his best K/9 in five years (8.52) with a 48.6 percent ground-ball rate, though his BB/9 (4.59) is also at its highest since 2012. An acquiring team would take on the remainder of Volquez’s $9MM salary this year and another $13MM in 2018.

    [SOURCE LINK]

Giancarlo Stanton Leaves Game After HBP

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  • Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton left today’s game with what appeared to be a hand or wrist injury after being struck by a 95-MPH fastball by Trevor Williams of the Pirates, Tim Healey of the South Florida Sun Sentinel and other reporters have noted. It appears, however, that Stanton and the Marlins have lucked out, as the team announced after the game that X-rays were negative and that Stanton only has a hand contusion. He is day-to-day.  Losing Stanton would have been a significant blow to the Marlins — he’s in the midst of a healthy and terrific .288/.365/.566 season, and the team, as Healey notes, is already dealing with injuries to lineup regulars Justin Bour, Adeiny Hechavarria and Martin Prado.

Marlins Open To Trading Phelps, Koehler; Ramos Not Available For Now

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The Marlins are open to the idea of trading righty swingman David Phelps and right-handed starter Tom Koehler, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports.  Phelps is one of multiple relievers the Fish could consider trading, though their biggest bullpen arm (closer A.J. Ramos) is apparently not on that list, as Jackson writes that the Marlins “don’t appear inclined to deal Ramos at this moment.”

There have been rumors about Ramos’ availability both in the offseason and more recently, as the Nationals are reportedly considering Ramos (as well as several other closers) as potential upgrades for the back of their bullpen.  Ramos has been generally solid this season, with a 3.92 ERA, 11.76 K/9 and 2.08 K/BB rate over 20 2/3 IP, though with some red flags.  He has walked 5.66 batters per nine innings and also been prone to the long ball, with a career-high 14.3% home run rate.  While a small sample size of work to judge from, Ramos’ hard-hit ball rate has also increased significantly, from 32.5% in 2016 to 40.4% this year.

Ramos is earning $6.5MM this season and will be due for another raise this winter in his third and final trip through the arbitration process.  A closer with such a rising price tag and non-elite performance could be considered a trade chip, especially with Miami looking like deadline sellers (26-33, 12 games back in the NL East and nine games back in the wild card race).  Moving Ramos or another reliever wouldn’t signal a rebuild nearly to the degree that trading a young cornerstone position player would, though in either case, it seems like the Marlins will be waiting a while longer before deciding on whether or not to throw in the towel on the 2017 season.  The team’s ongoing ownership saga may also factor into such on-the-field decisions.

Phelps pitched very well in a swingman role for the Fish last season and he has done a good job of coming close to that performance in 2017.  Phelps has a 3.00 ERA, 9.6 K/9 and 3.56 K/BB rate over 30 relief innings, though he has also seen spikes in his homer and hard-hit ball rates.  He has pitched more than one inning only four times in his 27 games, though Phelps’ past ability to be a multi-inning bullpen arm would make him an attractive target for contenders in need of relief help.

This isn’t the first time Koehler’s name has surfaced in trade rumors, as the Red Sox and Dodgers were reportedly interested in the right-hander before he was placed on the DL with bursitis in his throwing shoulder.  Koehler has been a solid, if unspectacular, innings-eater over the last three seasons in Miami’s rotation, though he was hit hard in seven starts this year, with a 7.04 ERA and 10 homers allowed in 38 1/3 innings.

Both Koehler ($5.75MM) and Phelps ($4.6MM) are earning significant salaries this year, with one more arb-eligible year before hitting free agency after the 2018 season.  Dealing either would free up some money off Miami’s payroll, though the Fish would have to eat a good chunk of Koehler’s salary unless he gets back on track after returning from the disabled list.

Trade Candidate: Christian Yelich

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The Marlins signed outfielder Christian Yelich to a seven-year, $49.57MM contract extension in 2015 with the idea that he’d be a long-term cornerstone in Miami, and that could still end up as the case. However, after rejecting other teams’ overtures for Yelich in the past, the Marlins will reportedly listen to offers for the 25-year-old if they’re not in the playoff hunt near next month’s trade deadline.

At 25-33 and 12 games back of the NL East-leading Nationals, Miami is all but out of its division race already, which leaves a wild-card berth as its only hope. The Marlins are a lofty 9.5 games back of the NL’s last playoff spot, though, and their minus-26 run differential isn’t indicative of a sleeper team whose record is particularly unlucky.

Barring a major turnaround in the coming weeks, the Marlins are probably going to sell in an effort to strengthen their farm system. The Fish clearly need to replenish their prospect pool, which ESPN’s Keith Law (subscription required and recommended) ranked 29th in the majors entering the season and could see promising left-hander Braxton Garrett undergo Tommy John surgery. As arguably Miami’s best trade chip, dealing Yelich would add much-needed talent to the organization’s pipeline, though it would obviously further weaken whatever chances it has to compete in the near future.

Christian Yelich

Yelich, a 2010 first-round pick who made his big league debut in 2013, established himself as a high-average, high-OBP hitter who could steal double-digit bases and play a quality left field during his first two-plus years in the league. While that blend of skills made Yelich quite valuable, the lefty-swinger didn’t complement it with much power, hitting only 20 home runs and posting a .116 ISO in 1,458 plate appearances. Last year was a different story, though, as Yelich swatted 21 homers and recorded a .185 ISO (league average was .162) in 659 PAs en route to a career-best .298/.376/.483 line and his second 4-fWAR season.

Now, Yelich is again on pace for a respectable campaign (he has accrued 1.3 fWAR in 246 plate trips), but the terrific offensive production he registered from 2013-16 hasn’t been present. At .259/.343/.392, Yelich has logged a league-average OPS+ (100) and a slightly below-average wRC+ (97). With a .132 ISO, the grounder-hitting Yelich has also lost much of the power he showed last season. One obvious problem has been a lack of line drives, as Yelich’s 17.1 percent mark is both a career worst and a 6.3 percent decline from last season.

Even if Yelich’s batted-ball profile stays the same, there are reasons to expect positive regression in his production. Yelich’s batting average on balls in play (.286) is 68 points lower than his career figure (.354), for one, and his .342 xwOBA (via Baseball Savant) indicates he deserves better than his actual wOBA (.319). Plus, Yelich has continued to walk at a solid clip (10.6 percent, compared to a career 10.4 percent), and has not contributed to the league’s growing strikeout trend. Yelich has struck out just 16.7 percent of the time, which is far better than both his lifetime mark (20.4) and the league average (21.6).

While Yelich’s offensive game is the main reason he’s so highly regarded, defense has also been a strength. Yelich combined for 32 Defensive Runs Saved and a 12.3 Ultimate Zone Rating in left field from 2013-16, leading the Marlins to shift him to the outfield’s most important position – center – during the offseason. The returns have been encouraging so far, albeit over a small sample, with Yelich having saved a pair of runs and contributed a 7.5 UZR/150.

Affordable, well-rounded players – especially those who can handle a premium position – obviously carry major value, evidenced by the prospect haul the Nationals sent to the White Sox for Adam Eaton over the winter. Washington parted with two of MLB.com’s top 40 prospects, right-handers Lucas Giolito (No. 3) and Reynaldo Lopez (No. 38), as well as 2016 first-round righty Dane Dunning to acquire up to five years and $38.4MM of Eaton. Yelich is three years younger than Eaton and also comes at a very reasonable cost. He’s due around $45MM through 2021 and either a $15MM club option or a $1.25MM buyout in 2022. Yelich has already outperformed the worth of his contract, per FanGraphs, which values his production at $64.5MM dating back to 2015.

If the Marlins do market the remainder of Yelich’s 20s prior to the deadline, plenty of potential suitors are likely to emerge. Thanks to Yelich’s age and team control, even clubs that aren’t in the playoff hunt this season (but view themselves as near-future contenders) could attempt to acquire him. As such, the Marlins would probably be in position to add multiple high-end youngsters to a system that, in Baseball America’s view, only has one top 100 prospect. That prospect, Garrett, falls toward the low end of BA’s list (No. 80) and is now facing a rather uncertain future on account of his elbow injury.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Braxton Garrett May Require Tommy John Surgery

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  • Marlins left-handed pitching prospect Braxton Garrett has a partial UCL tear in his throwing elbow and may need Tommy John surgery, Andre C. Fernandez of the Miami Herald reports.  Garrett, who turns 20 in August, was selected seventh overall by the Fish in the 2016 amateur draft.  He was ranked as a consensus top-100 prospect (42nd by ESPN’s Keith Law, 43rd by MLB.com, 71st by Baseball Prospectus, 76th by Baseball America) prior to the season and was considered easily the best minor leaguer within a thin Miami farm system.  As Fernandez notes, Garrett would be the second top Marlins pitching prospect (after Tyler Kolek) to require Tommy John surgery within the last 14 months.
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