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Marlins Win Arbitration Hearing Against Jacob Stallings

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The Marlins won their arbitration hearing against catcher Jacob Stallings, as first reported by the Associated Press. That sets his 2022 salary at the $2.45MM figure submitted by the team rather than at the $3.1MM that Stallings and his representatives.

Acquired in an offseason trade that sent righty Zach Thompson and prospects Kyle Nicolas and Connor Scott to the Pirates, Stallings has had a rough start to his Marlins tenure. The 2021 Gold Glover has always been known more for his defensive prowess than his bat, but this year’s .204/.276/.268 showing through 174 trips to the plate has nevertheless been a disappointment. Over his final three seasons with the Bucs, Stallings posted a .251/.331/.374 batting line that clocked in about about 9-10% worse than the league-average hitter (by measure of wRC+ and OPS+) but was slightly better than that of the average catcher.

More concerning for the Fish, however, is the downturn in Stallings’ vaunted defensive skills. This year’s 17% caught-stealing rate is the worst of his big league career, and Stallings has also turned in below-average marks in pitch framing — an area where he’s previously ranked among the game’s very best. Stallings has been a bit better at the dish since a brutal start to the year, hitting .223/.303/.300 over his past 100 trips to the plate, but even that’s a notable departure from his typical output in Pittsburgh.

Of course, Stallings’ struggles to this point weren’t a factor in his arbitration hearing. Arbitration hearings, even those taking place during the ongoing season due to this winter’s lockout, are determined based solely on prior performance. Hearings such as this would’ve typically taken place in February, after all.

With Stallings’ 2022 salary now set, that’ll be the baseline for subsequent arbitration raises moving forward. This is his second trip through arbitration as a Super Two player, and he’ll remain under Marlins control through the 2024 season. That leaves two more trips through the arb process, though Stallings will likely need to improve his play on both sides of the ball if he’s to remain a prominent part of the team’s plans.

Wrapping up Stallings’ case finally brings the Marlins’ arbitration dealings to a close. Miami avoided a hearing with everyone other than Stallings and righty Pablo Lopez, both of whom the team defeated in arb hearings. The Fish also notably sidestepped a hearing with southpaw Richard Bleier when they agreed to a two-year deal in late March.

At this point, Braves lefty Max Fried and Yankees slugger Aaron Judge are the only two players in Major League Baseball with yet-to-be-resolved arbitration cases. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Fried’s hearing took place yesterday, so a ruling could be made as soon as today. Judge’s hearing is set for Friday, per Heyman.

Marlins Sign Billy Hamilton To Minor League Deal, Acquire Ryan Lavarnway From Tigers

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The Marlins announced a pair of veteran additions to the upper levels of the farm system this evening (as relayed by Christina De Nicola of MLB.com). Miami signed center fielder Billy Hamilton to a minor league contract and assigned him to Triple-A Jacksonville; they’ve also acquired non-roster catcher Ryan Lavarnway in a trade with the Tigers.

Hamilton has appeared in the majors in every season between 2013-21. One of the fastest players in the sport, he stole between 56 and 59 bases in each of his first four full campaigns with the Reds. That athleticism was also on display on defense, as Hamilton consistently rated as an elite gloveman in center field. The baserunning and defense kept him in the everyday lineup for five seasons, but his bat has never developed as hoped.

The former second-round pick is a career .240/.293/.327 hitter in more than 3200 major league plate appearances. He’s particularly struggled in recent seasons, putting up a .213/.269/.299 line since the start of the 2019 campaign. Hamilton has taken on more of a journeyman role, suiting up with each of the Royals, Braves, Mets, Cubs and White Sox over the past three years.

Hamilton signed a minor league deal with the Mariners over the winter. He appeared in 22 games with their top affiliate in Tacoma, mustering only a .168/.263/.209 mark. He triggered an opt-out clause in that deal on June 1, and he’ll head to Florida after finding his latest opportunity. The Fish will add an experienced glove-first depth option behind a rather thin collection of center fielders.

Miami has given the bulk of the playing time at the position to Jesús Sánchez and Bryan De La Cruz, but both are probably stretched there defensively. Hamilton will need to show signs of life at the plate in Jacksonville to get a major league look, but he at least offers the potential for a complementary profile if he can work his way onto the MLB roster.

Lavarnway, meanwhile, has spent the entire season with the Tigers’ top affiliate in Toledo. The 34-year-old backstop has had a good showing with the Mud Hens, posting a .281/.385/.459 line through 174 plate appearances. He’s walked at an excellent 13.2% clip this year and generally has a strong upper minors track record.

A quintessential third catcher, Lavarnway got to the big leagues in ten of the eleven seasons between 2011-21 (2016 being the lone exception). Only twice has he exceeded 100 plate appearances, though, and he’s not reached ten games in a season since 2015. He continues to bounce around the league as a valued depth option, spending time in 11 different organizations — including a five-game stint with Miami two years ago.

The Marlins have Jacob Stallings and Nick Fortes on the MLB roster at the moment. Payton Henry is the only other backstop on the 40-man, but he’s been on the minor league injured list for the past two weeks. De Nicola tweeted this afternoon that Henry recently underwent surgery on his right thumb, necessitating the addition of another depth option at the position.

Marlins Place Jesus Aguilar, Jesus Sanchez On Injured List

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The Marlins have placed first baseman Jesus Aguilar and outfielder Jesus Sanchez on the injured list.  There weren’t designations announced for Aguilar or Sanchez, indicating that the players are on the COVID-related injured list.  To fill the two open roster spots, the Marlins called up first baseman Lewin Diaz and outfielder/first baseman Jerar Encarnacion from Triple-A.

In the event of a positive test, Aguilar/Sanchez will have to miss at least 10 days, unless they test negative twice, go 24 hours without a fever, and get clearance from three physicians (one each appointed by the league and MLBPA, plus a Marlins team doctor).  If Aguilar and/or Sanchez haven’t yet tested negative, they could be back on the roster in short order, should they just be feeling light symptoms or if they are being held out due to a close-contact situation.  Just last week, Miami’s Garrett Cooper was on the COVID-IL for such a brief stint.

Diaz and Encarnacion figure to slide right into Aguilar and Sanchez’s regular roles, and in Encarnacion’s case, he’ll be getting his first taste of Major League Baseball.  Ranked by MLB Pipeline as the 20th-best prospect in Miami’s farm system, Encarnacion is in his sixth pro season, with a .263/.322/.424 slash line over 1544 career plate appearances.  Injuries have slowed his progress, but Pipeline’s scouting report cites his power potential and 60-grade throwing arm as pluses, even if there is still a lot of swing-and-miss in Encarnacion’s game.  Over his 252 at the Double-A and Triple-A levels this season, Encarnacion has struck out in 70 of those turns at bat.

Outrights: Marinan, Zabala

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A couple of players recently made it through the waiver wire unclaimed and will not be changing organizations…

  • The Reds announced that right-hander James Marinan cleared waivers and has been outrighted to High-A Dayton. He was just added to the club’s 40-man roster last November, ahead of the Rule 5 draft that ended up getting canceled by the lockout. Despite having never pitched above High-A, the Reds evidently thought he was worth rostering based on his high strikeout numbers. However, he’s had a poor showing so far this year, putting up an ERA of 7.71 through 32 2/3 innings for Dayton. The long ball has been a particular problem for him, as he’s already allowed 10 homers in that sample. He’ll stick with Dayton and try to get into a better groove, though without occupying a 40-man roster spot.
  • The Marlins announced that right-hander Aneurys Zabala has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Double-A Pensacola. Zabala made a very brief appearance on the club’s 40-man roster, being designated for assignment just a couple of days after his selection. He was selected to take the spot of Garrett Cooper, who went on the COVID IL but returned just two days later, bumping Zabala right back off. During that brief cameo, Zabala was able to face three batters in his lone appearance, allowing a double before recording a fly out and a strikeout. He’s thrown 8 2/3 innings in the minors this year with an unsightly 10.38 ERA. His impressive 27.1% strikeout rate has been largely offset by his matching 27.1% walk rate.

Marlins “Pushing Hard” For Ramon Laureano

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The Marlins have hung around baseball’s competitive landscape the last couple of seasons, buoyed by a dynamic young starting rotation. Their offense, however, consistently underwhelms. Thus far in 2022, however, neither the pitching nor the offense has been able to escape the torpid middle. The Marlins are tied for 13th overall in the Majors with a 3.85 team ERA, and they are similarly tied for 13th overall on the offensive end with a 104 wRC+.

It still likely wouldn’t surprise anyone to hear they might be looking for bats. The latest scuttlebutt has the Marlins “pushing hard” for outfielder Ramon Laureano, according to Peter Gammons (via Twitter). The irony, of course, is that center field has been a particular need for the Fish since dealing Starling Marte to the A’s last season. Marte now plays for the rival Mets, and the A’s are in a position to deal.

The Marlins invested heavily in their outfield this offseason, adding both Jorge Soler and Avisail Garcia to young trade acquisitions Jesus Sanchez and Bryan De La Cruz. But they weren’t able to find their long-term answer in center. Sanchez has held his own (93 wRC+, -1 DRS, 0.5 fWAR), but Laureano certainly brings a panache to outfield glove work that the Marlins may find appealing. Laureano has traditionally rated well defensively, and he doesn’t want for offensive firepower either, owning a career 117 wRC+ over 1,392 career plate appearances.

Of course, the A’s have to be willing to give him up as well. At 21-43 on the year, Oakland is firmly in a step-back year, and given their history, anyone is likely to be on the table, particularly an almost-28-year-old veteran like Laureano. GM David Forst has gone on record saying that no one is off-limits on the roster, writes Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle. Of course, that’s long been the company line for the A’s, particularly when they enter a sell-off period, as they did this past winter.

With true two-way center fielders being relatively tough to come by these days, however, Laureano figures to be a popular target. The A’s, for their part, may have found his successor in Cristian Pache, though Pache’s 27 wRC+ practically begs the A’s to reconsider. Laureano is still firmly in his prime, and with two more seasons of team control beyond this year, the A’s should feel no particular pressure to move him.

So while the Marlins may very well do their due diligence on Laureano, the A’s have resisted the temptation to deal him thus far. If they do ultimately decide that Laureano adds more long-term value as a trade asset than as their everyday right fielder (and Pache insurance), they can likely find more suitors beyond the Marlins. The Brewers, Padres, Phillies, Red Sox, and Dodgers join the Marlins as bottom-10 teams in terms of fWAR production from their center fielders, while the Guardians, Astros, and Rays land in the bottom 10 by wRC+. That’s no shortage of competitive clubs with a need in the grass.

Speculatively speaking, the Phillies may present the biggest challenger to the Marlins in terms of their interest. Philadelphia, like the Marlins, has been active in their search for a long-term center fielder, and they don’t appear to have that guy in their pipeline. We know the Phillies are doing what they can to compete, and as of right now, they’re doing a better job than the Marlins in that regard – they sit three games ahead of the Marlins in the standings, though still 8.5 games behind the division-leading Mets.

Of course, whether or not the Phillies have the prospects to properly woo Oakland is another question entirely. The Marlins have long been touted for their depth of young starting pitching, and if they decide to deal from that pool, Laureano may be the type of piece they would target. For now, however, the decision is still Oakland’s to make.

Marlins Select Jimmy Yacabonis

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The Marlins announced a series of roster moves before this afternoon’s matchup with the Phillies (relayed by Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald). Miami selected reliever Jimmy Yacabonis onto the big league club and recalled left-hander Daniel Castano from Triple-A Jacksonville. To free a pair of active roster spots, right-handers Edward Cabrera and Cole Sulser have each landed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to June 13. Southpaw Jesús Luzardo was transferred from the 15-day to the 60-day IL to open a spot on the 40-man for Yacabonis.

Assuming Yacabonis gets into a game, it’ll be the fifth season in which he’s logged some big league action. He pitched with the Orioles and Mariners between 2017-20 and briefly appeared on Seattle’s active roster last year, but he was designated for assignment without making an appearance. Yacabonis has worked 104 cumulative innings across 57 MLB games, posting a 5.71 ERA while working primarily in long relief.

A St. John’s product, Yacabonis has worse than average strikeout, walk and ground-ball numbers as a big leaguer. He has, however, been effective at the Triple-A level over the past couple seasons. The righty worked to a 2.17 ERA across 37 1/3 frames with the Mariners top affiliate last year, and he’s pitched quite well through 23 2/3 innings in Jacksonville after signing a minor league deal this spring. Yacabonis owns a 3.42 ERA and has punched out an excellent 35% of batters faced, easily the highest single-season mark of his pro career. That’s come with a spike in free passes, but the Fish will see if he can carry that bat-missing success over against big league hitters.

Yacabonis is out of minor league option years, so the Marlins will now have to keep him on the active roster or designate him for assignment. The injury to Sulser, in particular, could afford an opportunity for Yacabonis to stake a claim to a bullpen role. Acquired from the Orioles over the offseason, Sulser has a 3.86 ERA through 23 1/3 innings. He’s currently battling a lat strain, however, and that’ll put his solid first season in South Florida on hold.

Cabrera, meanwhile, is dealing with tendinitis in his throwing elbow. One of the more highly-regarded young arms around the game, Cabrera has started ten games for the Marlins over the past couple seasons. The hard-throwing hurler has a 4.93 ERA through 42 innings as he’s struggled to throw strikes, but he’s also flashed swing-and-miss stuff. Cabrera has started three games with the MLB club and five games for the Jumbo Shrimp this year.

Castano will get the ball this afternoon, his first start of the season. He steps in for Pablo López, who won’t make his start as scheduled due to a wrist contusion. The right-hander was struck by a comebacker during his outing last Friday, and he’s apparently still not ready to get back on the mound. The Marlins haven’t placed López on the injured list, suggesting they’re not overly concerned about his long-term status.

Luzardo has been out for a month with a forearm strain. Today’s transfer keeps him out for 60 days from the time of his original IL placement, so he’ll first be eligible to return shortly before the All-Star Break. It’s unlikely Luzardo will be ready by that point anyhow, as the team is understandably taking things slowly with the promising young hurler given the injury. He did progress to playing catch off flat ground this week (McPherson link), but he’ll still need to build back arm strength and likely throw a bullpen session or two before the team considers sending him on a minor league rehab assignment.

Marlins Designate Aneurys Zabala For Assignment

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The Marlins have designated reliever Aneurys Zabala for assignment, tweets Christina De Nicola of MLB.com. The move clears roster space for first baseman Garrett Cooper, who has been reinstated from the COVID-19 injured list.

It’s the reversal of a transaction from just a couple days ago, as Zabala was selected when Cooper hit the IL on Saturday. That the latter’s absence was so brief implies his stay away from the club was merely related to virus-like symptoms. Cooper, who is hitting an excellent .315/.389/.473 on the season, figures to reassume a middle-of-the-order role. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored this afternoon, the right-handed hitter has quietly emerged as one of the game’s more productive bats in recent seasons.

Zabala loses his roster spot after making one MLB appearance, which was his big league debut. The 25-year-old had spent time in the farm systems of the Mariners, Dodgers, Reds and Phillies before finally getting his first crack against major league hitters. Zabala recorded two outs, including a strikeout of Kyle Tucker, during yesterday’s loss to the Astros. The 6’3″ hurler averaged a blistering 99.5 MPH on his fastball during that look, according to Statcast.

The Marlins will presumably try to run Zabala through waivers in the next few days. Assuming he goes unclaimed, he’ll likely return to Triple-A Jacksonville on outright assignment. He’s allowed ten runs with 13 walks and 11 strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings with the Jumbo Shrimp this season.

The Marlins’ Underappreciated Slugger

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The Marlins are 7-3 over their past ten games, though the resulting 27-31 record still lands them 11 games out of first place in the National League East and 5.5 games back of a Wild Card spot. Starting pitching, as one would expect for a team with this type of rotation talent, has helped to drive the recent surge. Arguably the biggest catalyst in Miami’s recent surge, however, has been the first baseman/outfielder who’s carried the offense of late: Garrett Cooper. The Marlins recently placed Cooper on the Covid-19-related injured list, but he was hitting .500/.548/.714 through 31 plate appearances amid their recent uptick in play.

Garrett Cooper | Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

If Cooper’s production happened to be a complete anomaly, perhaps it wouldn’t bear much of a mention. Players go on hot streaks all the time, after all. But while Cooper can’t be expected to continue hitting .500 over any meaningful sample, the recent burst should help to shine a light on the fact that the 31-year-old is among the game’s most underrated bats and has been for some time now. Cooper’s sweltering June isn’t any sort of breakout from a slow start to the year; he entered the month hitting .277/.360/.426 and now, after a recent string of six consecutive multi-hit games, is up to .315/.389/.473 on the year.

By measure of wRC+, Cooper has been about 47% better than a league-average hitter so far in 2022 (after weighting for park and league) — his fourth year as a regular in the Marlins’ lineup and his fourth with above-average overall production. Cooper was a solid hitter back in 2019 (.281/.344/.446, 15 home runs, 111 wRC+), but that came in the juiced-ball season, making it easy to overlook the manner in which he established himself. Since that time, he’s maintained a solid walk rate while hitting for average and showing above-average power. The output has come during the shortened 2020 season and an injury-plagued 2021 campaign, which may have prevented it from getting the attention it should have, but Cooper has been one of baseball’s best hitters on a rate basis dating back to 2020.

In that time, Cooper ranks 20th among 265 big league hitters (min. 500 plate appearances) with a 138 wRC+. He’s hitting .295/.377/.476 during that stretch. Of the 19 hitters ranked above him, 17 are former All-Stars, with the exceptions being Kyle Tucker and Ty France — both likely (or at least deserving) 2022 All-Stars. The top 30 names on that leaderboard represent a veritable who’s who of baseball’s most notable bats, with Cooper quietly lumped into the middle of the group. However, it’s unlikely many would think of Cooper when trying to list off the game’s most productive hitters. He may not even be the first Marlin to spring to mind for most, not with Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s outstanding showing so far in 2022.

The lack of recognition for Cooper may not be that difficult to explain. He plays for a Marlins team that struggles to draw fans to the park and has just one winning season since 2010 (when they reached the expanded playoffs with a 31-29 record in the shortened 2020 campaign). Cooper hasn’t produced at this level over the course of a full big league season yet — though his production since 2020 has come over the life of 594 plate appearances, which is nearly a full year’s worth of reps. He also missed time with both a lumbar strain and an elbow sprain last year and has only appeared in 100 games in a season once.

It’s tempting, then, to wonder whether Cooper’s production is fluky in nature or attributable to small sample sizes. That doesn’t appear to be the case. The league-average exit velocities over the past three seasons have been 88.4 mph, 88.8 mph and 88.7 mph, respectively. Cooper, in  that time, has posted respective exit velos of 90.1 mph, 91.1 mph and 91.6 mph. His 47.2% hard-hit rate (the percentage of batted balls at 95 mph or more) trounces the league average of 38.3%. He’s “barreled” 10.7% of his batted balls in that time, per Statcast — handily topping the 7.8% MLB average.

There’s a platoon split of note with regard to Cooper, but that’s not to say he is or should be considered a platoon player. Rather, it’s just that since 2020, the right-handed-hitting Cooper has been a very good hitter against fellow righties (.279/.370/.437) and one of the very best in the game against lefties (.336/.398/.575). He’s been a legitimate middle-of-the-order presence regardless of opponent.

Although Cooper has only connected on four home runs through 211 plate appearances so far this season, one could still argue that the 2022 campaign has been his best yet. This year’s 23.2% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career, and his 15 doubles are one off the career-high 16 he smacked in 2019 — in more than twice as many trips to the plate. Cooper is sporting a .403 batting average on balls in play this year, and while that’s sure to regress to an extent, there’s no reason it should be expected to plummet to the .288 league average. Cooper entered the year with a career .362 BABIP, and even though it’s fair to be skeptical he can sustain quite that level, a player with Cooper’s hard-contact profile should carry a BABIP considerably greater than that of the average hitter. Statcast pegs his “expected” batting average in 2022 at .301 — only 14 points lower than its current mark.

Meanwhile, only 10.8% of Cooper’s fly-balls have left the yard for homers this year — a mark well shy of the 21.6% rate at which he entered the season. His 2022 rate will likely begin to move closer to that career level, meaning his slugging can reasonably be expected to tick upward even as his average likely moves south.

At 6’5″ and 235 pounds, Cooper’s defensive options are limited to first base and the outfield corners. He’s rated poorly on the grass (-4 Defensive Runs Saved, -5 Outs Above Average in 615 career innings), but defensive metrics view Cooper as a sound, if unspectacular option at first (4 DRS, 5 OAA, 2.9 Ultimate Zone Rating in 1157 innings). With Jesus Aguilar also on the roster, Miami has given Cooper plenty of time at designated hitter, too.

Aguilar has a 2023 mutual option and will likely be a free agent at season’s end — mutual options are rarely exercised by both parties — which at least ostensibly opens the door for Cooper to step in as the everyday first baseman in 2023 That could happen even sooner, if Aguilar is moved on this summer’s trade market. Then again, Cooper himself figures to see his name pop up in trade rumblings, at least if the Marlins aren’t able to further close the gap in the Wild Card standings.

Cooper himself is only controlled through the 2023 season, and with his 32nd birthday looming in December, he’s something of a late bloomer relative to other big leaguers. The Marlins would surely love to keep his bat in the lineup now that they’ve turned more toward a win-now approach, but Cooper’s bat should be a coveted attribute this summer as contending clubs look to beef up their lineups. Because of the time missed due to injury, Cooper’s arbitration price hasn’t built up too extensively; he’s earning an eminently reasonable $2.5MM in 2022. That makes him affordable for any team, and the advent of the universal designated hitter will only further broaden Cooper’s market.

There’s no guarantee the Marlins will seriously entertain offers on Cooper — or on any of their veteran players, for that matter. They’re by no means completely out of the playoff picture, and with 10 of their next 13 games coming against divisional opponents (three in Philadelphia and seven against the Mets), they have a very immediate opportunity to climb the NL East ladder and make things more interesting.

A poor showing, however, will have the opposite effect and will only magnify the pressure to at least listen on some short-term veterans. And while rental bats like Josh Bell, Nelson Cruz, Willson Contreras, Trey Mancini and Andrew Benintendi will draw more headlines as the trade deadline looms, Cooper might draw more actual trade interest, given his affordable salary, extra year of club control and comparable (if not superior) production.

Marlins Place Garrett Cooper On IL, Select Aneurys Zabala

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The Marlins have placed first baseman Garrett Cooper on the injured list without a designation, implying that Cooper’s absence is related to COVID-19.  Right-hander Aneurys Zabala will take Cooper’s spot on the active roster, as the Marlins selected Zabala’s contract from Double-A.

It isn’t known if Cooper has tested positive for the virus or if he is being held out for precautionary reasons due to symptoms or a close-contact situation.  Cooper was removed from yesterday’s game due to body cramping, and Marlins skipper Don Mattingly told reporters (including The Miami Herald’s Jordan McPherson) today that Cooper “was not feeling good overnight.  We did some testing on him and we’ll see where that goes.”

Cooper did test positive for the virus back in 2020, when the Marlins were hit with a huge COVID outbreak that sidelined several members of the roster.  That absence cost Cooper a month of the shortened 2020 season, and it added to the long list of IL absences Cooper has faced in his six-year MLB career.  Though he has only 291 games on his resume, Cooper has performed quite well when healthy, and is currently in the midst of what might be his best season.  The first baseman is hitting .315/.389/.473 with four home runs over his first 211 plate appearances of the 2022 campaign.

Cooper has split his time between DH and first base this season, and Jesus Aguilar will now likely see more first base time while Jorge Soler is the likeliest candidate for more DH duty.  Jon Berti and Willians Astudillo are both utilitymen, and their versatility will be more valuable than ever as the Marlins try to weather this stretch with Cooper, Brian Anderson, and Joey Wendle all on the injured list.

Zabala had already been with the Marlins on their taxi squad, and the 25-year-old is now set to make his Major League debut.  Originally an international signing for the Mariners, Zabala began his pro career as a 17-year-old back in 2014, and he has since bounced around to the farm systems of the Dodgers, Reds, and Phillies before landing with Miami this year.  Control has been a problem for Zabala throughout his career, contributing to his 5.48 ERA over 286 innings in the minors.

Marlins Have Been Rewarded For Hanging Onto Pablo Lopez

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There was a bit of offseason speculation about the possibility of the Marlins trading right-hander Pablo López in an attempt to balance the roster. Miami had a surplus of starting pitching but a lackluster offense, and multiple reports indicated they could deal from their rotation to address the lineup.

That didn’t really wind up transpiring, aside from Miami including depth arm Zach Thompson in the deal that brought back Jacob Stallings from the Pirates. Otherwise, the Fish signed Sandy Alcantara to a long-term extension and held onto López, Elieser Hernández and their collection of highly-touted younger arms. Perhaps general manager Kim Ng and her staff wish they’d more aggressively shopped Hernández given the magnitude of his struggles thus far, but holding onto López certainly looks to have been the right call.

The Venezuelan-born righty has quietly been one of the sport’s better arms for the past few years. López was an unspectacular back-of-the-rotation starter for his first two seasons, but he elevated his game during the shortened 2020 campaign. López posted a 3.61 ERA while striking out batters at a solid rate for the first time, a promising 11-start showing he’d hope to replicate or improve upon over a full schedule. He was well on his way to doing so last season, pitching to a 3.03 ERA with an above-average 27.1% strikeout percentage and an excellent 6.1% walk rate in 101 frames through July.

Unfortunately, López suffered a right rotator cuff strain around the All-Star Break. That injury cost him virtually the rest of the season, as he only returned for a 1 2/3 inning appearance during the final weekend of the year — long after the Marlins had been eliminated from postseason contention.

Perhaps the shoulder issue complicated whatever efforts Miami might’ve made to deal him over the winter. Potential acquiring teams may not have valued him as highly as they’d had a few months before because of the health uncertainty. Maybe Ng and her staff never would’ve seriously entertained dealing López anyways, viewing him as the kind of rotation building block that could get the club back to contention. Whatever the case, López has picked up right where he’d left off pre-surgery, putting him on track to earn his first career All-Star nod.

Across 11 starts, the 26-year-old has a 2.18 ERA while averaging six innings per appearance. That’s the 10th-lowest ERA among 87 pitchers with 50+ innings entering Friday, and he finds himself in the top 30 in both strikeout/walk rate differential (19th at 19.5 percentage points) and ground-ball rate (26th at 46.8%). López has induced swinging strikes on 13.7% of his offerings, the highest rate of his career and the #11 mark league-wide. He’s freezing hitters for a fair number of called strikes, and batters are making less contact than ever when they have swung.

López has seen velocity drops on both his fastball and cutter relative to last season, perhaps a moderate concern given the shoulder issue. He’s averaging 92.8 MPH on his four-seam, a middling number that’s down a tick from the 94.1 MPH average he’d owned before last year’s surgery. His cutter is down three MPH, although that could be a deliberate alteration to generate more two-plane movement. Whether intentional or not, the slower cutter has been a better swing-and-miss pitch than last season’s harder but shorter version.

More than anything, however, the changeup is the key to López’s success. That pitch has continued to thrive. He’s always had a plus offspeed offering, but he’s using it more and with greater success than ever. López is throwing his changeup a career-high 37.5% of the time, a virtual equal rate to his four-seam fastball usage. Among starters, only Tyler Anderson and Shane McClanahan has gotten hitters to swing through the pitch more often, per Statcast. The changeup has continued to be an elite weapon even as López has more frequently featured it in his arsenal.

As he’s doubled down on his 2021 success, the 6’4″ hurler will be of plenty of interest to pitching-needy contenders in advance of the August 2 trade deadline. Nothing forces the Marlins to seriously consider offers, of course, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported yesterday they currently “have no plans” to trade López.

That’s no surprise, as Miami sits only four and a half games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. They’ve started just 25-30 and would have to climb four teams to get into playoff position, but they’ve also outscored opponents by 21 runs on the year. Winning eight of nine games over the last-place Nationals certainly helps, but the Fish entered 2022 intending to compete and could point to their run differential to argue they’re better than their record indicates. Regardless, they’re close enough to the Wild Card race it’d be more eye-opening if they were planning to move López at the moment.

If the team struggles over the next six weeks, perhaps they’d reconsider that course of action, but there’s no pressing contractual urgency to make a deal. López is playing on a modest $2.45MM salary, and he’s controllable via arbitration through 2024. The asking price on two and a half years of cheap control for a starter of this caliber would be astronomical if the Fish were to make him available at all.

That won’t stop other clubs from inquiring if Miami fades in the standings, and one could argue the plethora of young arms on the horizon and the injury risk associated with any pitcher should lead Ng and her staff to be genuinely open to offers. It isn’t hard to find recent examples — the Tigers with Matthew Boyd, the Orioles with John Means, etc. — of teams holding firm to high asking prices on controllable starters, only to see those pitchers lose much of their trade value to injury or performance regression. The Marlins would no doubt prefer to have López taking the hill for meaningful games in Miami than see him don another uniform, though, and Heyman’s report makes it seem even likelier he’ll remain in South Florida for the foreseeable future.

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