Brewers Rumors

Brewers “Moving Closer” To Deal With Wade Miley

By Mark Polishuk | December 3, 2023 at 5:27pm CDT

5:27 PM: Jon Heyman of the New York Post indicates this evening that the Brewers and Miley are “moving closer” to a deal, while noting that an agreement between the sides would be a one-year arrangement.

9:57 AM: It would appear as though the Brewers and Wade Miley are making progress on a reunion, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal predicts that a deal between the two sides will “materialize in the coming days.” Miley pitched for Milwaukee during the 2018 season and then returned to the Brew City last season on a one-year, $4.5MM deal with a $10MM mutual option for 2024. Like with virtually all mutual options, it wasn’t exercised, as Miley declined his end of the option and took a $1MM buyout to re-enter free agency.

Some elbow soreness and a lat strain limited Miley to 120 1/3 innings last season, but that was still a vast improvement over his injury-riddled 2022 campaign as a member of the Cubs roster. Miley’s comeback year included a very solid 3.14 ERA over his 120 1/3 frames, though advanced metrics (like a 5.04 SIERA) were much less impressed by the veteran’s performance. Miley benefited from a .234 BABIP and an 81.6% strand rate, and his 16.1% strikeout rate ranked in only the eighth percentile of all pitchers.

These numbers notwithstanding, secondary metrics have often been down on Miley over the course of his 13-year career, as the left-hander has never been much of a strikeout pitcher and he has relied on grounders (49% career groundball rate) and soft contact to achieve success. Miley’s efforts at limiting hard contact have been particularly successful over the last few years, and his 31.3% hard-hit ball rate was one of the better marks in baseball in 2023.

This skillset has led to some pretty varied results over Miley’s long career, as the BABIP gods haven’t always been on his side. Nonetheless, the Brewers still seem interested in what Miley can bring to the table as he enters his age-37 season, and Rosenthal notes that the team also values his off-the-field contributions as a clubhouse leader. It is probably safe to assume that Miley will sign another relatively inexpensive one-year contract, perhaps with another option of some sort covering the 2025 season. That is surely appealing to a Brewers team with a limited budget, and a need for some extra depth in the rotation.

Should Miley return, he’ll join Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Adrian Houser, and (another re-signed pitcher in) Colin Rea as the projected starting five, with depth options that include Janson Junk, top prospect Robert Gasser, and Aaron Ashby returning from an injury-marred 2023 season. There is plenty of fluidity within this group, however, as rumors persist that Milwaukee could trade Burnes prior to his final year of team control.

NL Central Notes: Chourio, Pirates, De La Cruz, Cubs, Glasnow

By Mark Polishuk | December 3, 2023 at 12:55pm CDT

Jackson Chourio’s impending extension with the Brewers is expected to be made official within the next few days, and the eight-year, $82MM pact will give the 19-year-old Chourio the largest contract ever given to a (non-NPB) player prior to his big league debut. “It’s happened very quick — way quicker than I thought,” Chourio told reporter Andrew Wagner (X link) while the outfielder and agent Cesar Suarez attended a Milwaukee Bucks game yesterday, though Chourio and Suarez both stopped short of confirming an agreement was in place.

“Obviously I’m very happy that the organization believes in me and thinks so highly of me,” Chourio said. “At the same time, there’s been a lot of hard work and now I’m getting rewarded so I want to continue to [work hard] and continue to succeed with the team.”

Regarded as one of baseball’s top prospects, Chourio has looked great during his three pro seasons, though his Triple-A experience consists of only six games. The contract makes it likely but not a guarantee that Chourio will be the Brewers’ starting center fielder on Opening Day, yet even if he does need a bit more seasoning in the minors before making his big league debut, there’s no doubt Chourio is a huge part of Milwaukee’s future.

Padres Interested In Corbin Burnes

By Mark Polishuk | December 2, 2023 at 3:02pm CDT

Much of the hot stove buzz around the Padres this offseason has focused on the team’s reported desire to cut payroll, and the possibility that a Juan Soto trade could be an ideal way for the Friars to both save money and reload with some new talent. However, the Padres firmly still intend to get back to winning baseball in 2024, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the team has interest in trading for Brewers ace Corbin Burnes.

Nick Martinez has already left to join the Reds, and there is little expectation that either Seth Lugo or Michael Wacha will be re-signed, given the Padres’ apparent budget concerns. That leaves San Diego in severe need of starting pitching depth behind Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, and adding a former Cy Young Award winner like Burnes would certainly provide a huge boost. While more work would need to be done on the back end of the rotation, the Padres would suddenly have a top three comparable to any other starting trio in baseball.

Acee’s piece details some of the financial factors going into the Padres’ winter plans, and notes that “the Padres have inquired about most of the top starters” available in free agency, even if signing one of the bigger-name arms doesn’t seem likely. Acquiring pitchers on more moderate free agent deals or via the trade market seems much more realistic, though landing Burnes would naturally come at a heavy price.

Firstly, it isn’t yet clear that the Brewers are even going to move Burnes, as much as their own payroll situation might make a deal seem sensible. Burnes is projected to earn $15.1MM in 2024, which is his final year of arbitration eligibility before testing free agency. Given Milwaukee’s history of spending, it doesn’t seem likely that the Crew will fork over the pricey extension or free agent deal it would take to keep Burnes in Wisconsin, so there is some merit in moving him this winter.

In essence, it’s the same decision the Padres face with Soto, who is projected for a whopping $33MM arbitration salary and will also be a free agent come next winter. Soto is widely expected to seek a contract upwards of $500MM since he’ll be only entering his age-26 season in 2025, and re-signing in San Diego suddenly seems less likely if the Padres are going to be reining in their spending.

Just to get the obvious hypothetical out of the way, a trade of Soto for Burnes in some fashion might not be too feasible for either San Diego or Milwaukee. It obviously wouldn’t be a straight one-for-one swap, yet it’s very fun to imagine a blockbuster swap that would see the Padres get the pitching upgrade they need while the offense-needy Brewers land an elite bat. Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has plenty of creative trades on his resume, and last winter’s three-team swap with the Braves and Athletics shows that Brewers president of baseball operations Matt Arnold is also no stranger to bold moves.

This all being said, the trade package San Diego reportedly wanted from the Yankees is perhaps more instructive as to what the Padres are looking to achieve with a Soto deal. If the Friars are looking for a mix of win-now talent, prospects, and salary relief (perhaps involving unloading the contract of a player like Trent Grisham), then very few teams can meet that asking price. Obviously that reported Yankees offer might represent a high starting ask from Preller and his demands might lessen as the offseason develops, yet a smaller-market team like the Brewers that particularly values prospects as the backbone of their organization isn’t going to make a big splurge for one year of control over Soto. If anything, Arnold might be looking for a similar return for Burnes — a trade package that helps set the Brewers up for years to come, not a particular win-now push for 2024.

If a direct trade between the two teams might not work, it is possible another three-team deal could be explored, and Acee suggests that a three-team trade might be the only way for the Padres to fully achieve most of their goals in dealing Soto. In regards to Milwaukee specifically, perhaps the Padres could move Soto to a third club, then funnel some of the young talent they’d receive from that mystery team towards the Brewers to then add Burnes for San Diego’s rotation. The permutations here are pretty much endless, and there’s a reason why three-team trades are relatively rare, particularly three-team trades involving some of the game’s biggest superstars.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored Burnes’ trade market, and the Padres weren’t one of the 12 teams Steve identified as the best possible fits for the right-hander. This doesn’t mean the Padres (or even one of the other clubs not cited) absolutely couldn’t emerge as something of a surprise suitor, and the team’s interest altogether indicates that Preller isn’t planning a fire sale of the roster.

Latest On Corbin Burnes

By Darragh McDonald | December 1, 2023 at 6:35pm CDT

Right-hander Corbin Burnes of the Brewers is one of the most attractive trade candidates this winter but it’s not clear if the club will actually pull the trigger on a deal. Earlier today, Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that the Brewers “have engaged teams in recent days” about Burnes. But last night, Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that rival clubs think Burnes is likely to remain in Milwaukee.

It’s a tricky spot for the Brewers to be in, as there are arguments for both sides. On the one hand, they are the reigning division champions and are in a strong position to do well again in 2024. Brandon Woodruff’s injury and subsequent non-tender hurts them, but they have one of the best prospects in the league, Jackson Chourio, on the rise and potentially debuting next year. With Woodruff out of the picture, trading Burnes would only further hamper a rotation that has been such a strength for them.

But on the other hand, Burnes is going into his final season of arbitration control. He recently spoke candidly about how an extension is not in the cards. They could hold onto him and give him a qualifying offer at the end of 2024, but they would likely be able to get something better by trading him now. There’s also the risk, as they just saw with Woodruff, that an injury completely alters their future plans.

If Burnes were available, he would undoubtedly get plenty of interest. All reports indicate that the demand for starting pitching is incredibly high this offseason. Some clubs will be able to sign marque free agents like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery or Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but others will come up short in those pursuits while some clubs won’t be able to shop in that aisle at all due to payroll concerns. Burnes is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an arbitration salary of $15.1MM next year, a bargain for a pitcher of his quality.

The righty has tossed 622 1/3 innings over the past four seasons with an earned run average of 2.86. He has struck out 30.9% of batters faced in that time, walked 7.1% of opponents and kept 46.4% of balls in play on the ground. His tally of 17.9 wins above replacement in that frame, per FanGraphs, is second to Zack Wheeler among all pitchers in the league.

He has already been connected to the Dodgers, Cubs and Orioles in rumors but it stands to reason that plenty of other clubs would be interested. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a look at some of the best fits in a theoretical trade.

Today’s reports don’t shed much light on the possibility of a trade actually coming together. It’s fair to assume that the Brewers would want to have talks with all potential trade partners and assess the packages on offer before deciding what is best for the club in 2024 and in the long run. They could use some upgrades on the infield and in the rotation, and the latter of those two needs would only grow if Burnes did end up in another uniform.

Looking For A Match In A Corbin Burnes Trade

By Steve Adams | November 29, 2023 at 3:29pm CDT

Of all the names that figure to populate the trade market this offseason, there’s perhaps no starting pitcher more intriguing than former National League Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes. As far as trade options go, Burnes is any team’s best shot at adding a bona fide front-of-the-rotation starter whose salary is in just about any team’s wheelhouse. His durability also sets him apart from some of the other marquee arms on the market.

With all due respect to Rays ace Tyler Glasnow, Burnes will earn something like 60% of his $25MM salary in arbitration and has a track record of innings that Glasnow simply can’t match. White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease is a former Cy Young finalist himself … but he also posted a mid-4.00s ERA last year and has never had even an average walk rate. Guardians right-hander Shane Bieber is another fellow Cy Young winner with a comparable — likely lesser — salary coming in his final arbitration year. He also has seen his average fastball drop by about three miles per hour since winning that 2020 award, while his strikeout rate has quite literally been cut in half (a bit more than that) — falling from 41.1% to 20.1%.

Burnes’ 2023 season wasn’t his best, but the 2021 NL Cy Young winner pitched 193 2/3 innings of 3.39 ERA ball, punching out more than a quarter of his opponents against a solid 8.4% walk rate. After a shaky couple months in April and June, Burnes looked like himself down the stretch. From July 1 onward, he logged a pristine 2.72 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. Again — it’s not quite the peak Burnes we saw during his Cy Young-winning season, but Burnes was a clear No. 1 starter for the final three months of the year, just as he was from 2020-22.

Detractors can raise red flags about a dip in strikeout rate and a slight uptick in walks, and there’s some merit to both, but the simple fact is that over the past four seasons, Burnes has had all of three single months with an ERA north of 4.00. Two of them came early in 2023, but the bulk of his season was excellent — just as the bulk of this 2020-23 run has been on the whole.

Will the Brewers actually trade Burnes? That’s another story. It’s a distinct possibility, but Milwaukee isn’t going to be shopping him and simply accepting the highest bid. Yes, Burnes is a free agent following the 2024 season. And yes, he had some choice words about the Brewers organization following last offseason’s arbitration hearing. He also hired the Boras Corporation not long after his loss in an arb hearing, and generally speaking, most marquee players don’t hire Scott Boras & Co. to negotiate an extension when they’re on the cusp of free agency. In all likelihood, Burnes is going to be one of the premier free agents on the 2024-25 class, barring an injury or an uncharacteristically poor season.

The Brewers, then, know there are two realities in front of them. The 2024 season will be Burnes’ last with the team, or he’s already pitched his final game for them. It’s a sobering and unwelcome reality for Milwaukee faithful, but not an unfamiliar one for a fanbase that’s accustomed to seeing star players leave for the type of lucrative paydays Brewers ownership can rarely match (Christian Yelich standing as the primary exception to that rule).

At the same time, the Brewers also expect to compete in 2024. They won the NL Central in 2023 and, if they hang onto Burnes, can run back a rotation including him and Freddy Peralta at the top of the group. They have one of the best relievers in baseball (Devin Williams), a high-end shortstop (Willy Adames), a burgeoning star at catcher (William Contreras), a resurgent Yelich and one of the game’s very best outfield prospects (Jackson Chourio) on the cusp of the Majors. In a weak division, the Brewers can certainly keep Burnes and take a run at contending. Worst case scenario, they fail and flip Burnes at the deadline for a still-strong (albeit not as strong) return. They could also keep Burnes, contend in the NL Central, possibly enjoy one more playoff push with him, and then make a qualifying offer at the end of the year.

Burnes’ projected $15.1MM salary in 2024 — courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz — is a selling point for interested trade partners because it could fit into just about any team’s payroll. However, that inherently means it’s also true of the Brewers, whose only guaranteed contracts are Yelich, Peralta and affordable arms Colin Rea and Aaron Ashby. Even with Burnes, Roster Resource projects the team’s 2024 payroll at just $101MM. They can afford to keep Burnes and add to the roster around him this winter.

If the Brewers are to trade Burnes, they’ll surely require some MLB-ready talent and/or controllable prospects who are on the very cusp of reaching the Majors. Burnes ranked second on MLBTR’s list of the Top 25 offseason trade candidates, though that’s not necessarily an indication that he’s the second-likeliest player to move this winter. In writing that piece, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco noted that the rankings are an admittedly subjective blend of a player’s perceived availability, trade value and potential impact to a new club.

Burnes has a legitimate chance to be moved, but it’s not a situation where the Brewers will decidedly trade him for the best offer, nor is it one where they have to move him. If he ultimately changes teams, it’ll be because another club made a genuinely compelling offer containing long-term value that was too difficult to turn down for a player who is a veritable one-year mercenary at this point.

For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll rule out the rest of the NL Central. It’s unlikely that the Brewers will want to deal him within the division, and it’s perhaps even more unlikely that the Cardinals, Reds, Pirates or Cubs would want to part with the requisite type of controllable talent who could haunt them into the 2030s. Clubs in the midst of a rebuild/retool (e.g. Athletics, Nationals, White Sox, Royals) aren’t going to be considered here either. The Guardians develop pitching like it’s a cheap card trick. The Mariners’ rotation is already stacked with high-end names. We know the Rays, Padres and Twins are trying to cut payroll to varying extents. Clubs like the Rockies, Angels, Tigers and Marlins probably don’t feel they’re in a strong enough position to pay a premium for one year of Burnes, knowing he’s a lock to test the market next winter.

Here’s a broad-reaching look at some clear fits…

Astros: GM Dana Brown has already suggested that he doesn’t have tons of financial flexibility this offseason, downplaying needs in the rotation while talking up his desire to add to the bullpen and grab a backup catcher. That said, Brown was also candid about his openness to adding someone who could be a No. 3 starter or better, and Burnes clearly fits that billing in spades. Adding Burnes to a rotation including Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez would be a statement addition for an Astros club that just ceded the division title for the first time since 2017.

Blue Jays: Rumors about the Jays wanting to make a splash this offseason abound. A one-year match with Burnes would certainly fit the bill, giving Toronto a juggernaut rotation of Burnes, Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi, with wild card Alek Manoah in the mix (if he himself isn’t part of a theoretical trade package for Burnes or shipped out elsewhere in a separate deal). Toronto can easily add Burnes to the roster without coming close to the luxury tax threshold, and as they’ve shown with trade acquisitions of Matt Chapman, Daulton Varsho and Berrios in the past two calendar years, they’re not afraid of parting with top prospects to make a big splash.

Braves: Atlanta reportedly had interest in both Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray but came up empty in each pursuit. They’ve since been connected to Dylan Cease, another Boras client who comes with half the projected arb salary as Burnes but twice the club control. The Braves tend to like to trade for players they have a chance at extending/re-signing (e.g. Sean Murphy, Matt Olson, Joe Jimenez, Pierce Johnson), but that’s not a hard-and-fast rule and Atlanta’s clear priority this offseason is adding a playoff-caliber starter. Young MLB-ready names like Vaughn Grissom and AJ Smith-Shawver would surely hold some appeal to the Brewers, and the two teams have recently lined up on multiple trades (William Contreras, Orlando Arcia).

D-backs: Arizona’s core of hitters is beyond impressive. Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo and Gabriel Moreno all had strong years at the plate. Jordan Lawlar, one of the game’s top-ranked prospects, debuted late in the season. In the rotation, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly is a strong one-two punch, with an up-and-coming Brandon Pfaadt sure to factor in prominently. The D-backs were stung by their starting pitching in the end, however, with the Rangers scoring a combined 16 runs in the first, second and third innings of the World Series’ five games. The Snakes would know Burnes is a one-year play who’d be a veritable lock to sign a deal beyond their financial comfort zone next winter. But as a revenue-sharing recipient, they’d also be positioned to receive the top compensation possible for a qualified free agent: a pick at the end of the first round in 2025.

Dodgers: The Dodgers were tied to Burnes earlier in the offseason, and they’re a perennially logical candidate to make a play for virtually any high-profile acquisition on the trade market. The Dodgers need pitching more than usual heading into 2024, with Clayton Kershaw not only standing as a free agent but also expected to miss at least half (if not more) of the 2024 season following shoulder surgery. Walker Buehler will be in his first full season post-Tommy John. Dustin May had flexor tendon surgery/TJS revision back in May. Tony Gonsolin underwent TJS in August. It’s a brutal batch of luck for Dodger arms, and while young options like Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Ryan Pepiot and Nick Frasso give the Dodgers upside in abundance, they need some sure things as well. A one-year run with one of the NL’s top arms at a reasonable price point makes perfect sense here, and the Dodgers could make the deal knowing they’d get at least some draft compensation in return if Burnes signs elsewhere next winter, even if their status as a likely luxury tax payor would push the pick placement down to after the fourth round.

Giants: San Francisco is perhaps more focused on acquiring star-caliber talent it can control for the long haul, with names like Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger and Yoshinobu Yamamoto among the team’s reported targets. If they succeed in adding such a marquee player, however, it’d likely embolden president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi to pursue shorter-term upgrades. Pairing Burnes with any one of those free agents would represent a transformative couple moves for a Giants team that has now had back-to-back disappointing seasons on the heels of an out-of-the-blue 107-win season in 2021. It cuts both ways, too; if the Giants are looking to sell Ohtani on their competitive outlook, a strike to acquire Burnes would help show him just how serious they are.

Mets: It’s not fully clear how aggressively the Mets will push for contention in 2024 after a disappointing year. Following his trade to the Rangers, Max Scherzer candidly said (perhaps to the chagrin of Mets brass) that his former club was looking at the ’24 season as something of a transitional year. If that’s the case, paying a prospect premium for Burnes with little hope of extending him might not be prudent. But the Mets have the money and big-market resources to push for a deal if new president of baseball ops David Stearns — the former Brewers president of baseball ops — wants to pursue his former ace with his new club. Then again, acquiring a second Boras client in a walk year who’ll have a massive price tag in extension talks (joining Pete Alonso) could give Stearns some trepidation. That’s especially true since he knows owner Steve Cohen will surely support him next winter if he wants to sign Burnes in free agency.

Orioles: At some point, one would imagine the Orioles will have to do … something? Baltimore rode a core of breakout hitters and some underappreciated pitchers (Kyle Bradish, most notably) to a 101-win season and an AL East title in 2023. But the O’s haven’t signed a free agent to a multi-year deal since Mike Elias was named GM and haven’t acquired any impact veterans on the trade market. It’s hard not to wonder what their 2023 season would’ve looked like had they aimed higher than Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin when looking for rotation help last winter. Baltimore has an almost comical surplus of MLB-ready position players. There’s just not enough playing time for all of Jordan Westburg, Connor Norby, Joey Ortiz, Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser and Coby Mayo, to say nothing of the game’s No. 1 overall prospect: Jackson Holliday. He’s likely to emerge as the shortstop of the future in ’24, pairing with Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson on the left side of the infield. Sooner or later, the Orioles have to act like potential postseason behemoth they are.

Phillies: Adding another starter probably isn’t a top priority for the Phils after re-signing Nola, but Philadelphia is surely hungry to get to the finish line after a consecutive NLCS appearances. The Phillies had hoped top prospect Andrew Painter could solidify his spot on the staff in 2023, but he wound up having Tommy John surgery instead. Cristopher Sanchez makes a fine fifth starter, but acquiring Burnes and deploying a rotation including him, Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez and Taijuan Walker is undoubtedly tantalizing for a president of baseball operations who’s never shy about making big trades. Dave Dombrowski has World Series rings from his time with the Marlins and the Red Sox, but he has the payroll space and high-end pitching prospects to pursue this if he wants to make an all-out push for a third ring with a third team.

Rangers: The reigning World Champs have been MLB’s most aggressive bidders in free agency over the past couple offseasons, and their recent championship isn’t going to prompt them to sit back and coast from here on out. Texas will be players for Shohei Ohtani and other top free agents, but it ownership reaches the point where another free agent mega-deal becomes too much to stomach, trading for Burnes is a clearly appealing alternative. Jacob deGrom will be sidelined for much of the year due to Tommy John surgery. Jordan Montgomery could depart in free agency. The Rangers have a need for another high-end starter, and many of their top position prospects — specifically MLB-ready bats like Justin Foscue and Dustin Harris — are blocked at the MLB level right now. Neither would headline a Burnes trade, but both could hold some appeal as secondary pieces.

Red Sox: Boston was linked to Burnes earlier this week. New chief baseball officer Craig Breslow is seeking at least one marquee arm to plug into a rotation that’s teeming with question marks — be they due to injury (Chris Sale) or limited MLB track record (Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck). Installing Burnes into the rotation would be a boon for the team’s 2024 outlook, but it remains to be seen whether a rookie baseball operations leader would want to part with substantial long-term talent for a one-year acquisition of Burnes on the heels of the Red Sox’ last-place finish in the division.

Yankees: Speaking of disappointing 2023 seasons from AL East powers, the Yankees barely eked out a winning season (82-80) and missed the playoffs entirely. They have serious long-term questions in the outfield, the infield and in the rotation. Burnes would be a short-term patch unless he can be re-signed next winter, but the Yanks might get their long-term arm if they can successfully sell Yamamoto on pitching in the Bronx. If they succeed in landing the righty, who many consider their top pitching target, then a trade to add Burnes to a starting staff also featuring Gerrit Cole, Yamamoto and Carlos Rodon (who can scarcely have a worse 2024 season than his 2023 Yankees debut) could give the Bombers a potential pitching powerhouse.

—

Overall, the best fits for Burnes are going to be win-now clubs with payroll space, strong farm systems and strong enough 2024 playoff expectations that there’s little fear of giving up too much for a pitcher ahead of a season that culminates in a postseason miss. In my view, that points to the Dodgers, Orioles, D-backs, Phillies and Rangers, although Burnes is talented enough that you can make a compelling case for just about any pseudo-contender to take the plunge and meet Milwaukee’s surely steep asking price.

Brewers Making Progress On Extension Talks With Top Prospect Jackson Chourio

By Darragh McDonald | November 29, 2023 at 8:05am CDT

Nov. 29: The two parties are gaining momentum on what would indeed be a record-setting contract extension, reports Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Hogg suggests a framework in the eight-year, $80MM range could be in play, with multiple options and a presumably healthy slate of incentives also coming into play. The two sides have been discussing a potential deal since late in the minor league season, Hogg adds, indicating that the ostensibly looming agreement would mark the culmination of months of negotiation.

Nov. 28: The Brewers and outfield prospect Jackson Chourio are discussing an extension, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Though the deal is not done, the report states it would set a new benchmark for an extension signed by a player with no major league experience. It’s unclear if the deal is close to being done or if talks are still in early stages. Chourio is represented by Beverly Hills Sports Council.

Chourio is still quite young, as he doesn’t turn 20 years old until March, but he has vaulted himself to the top echelons of prospect lists thanks to his all-around contributions. He spent most of 2023 in Double-A, getting into 122 games at that level. He hit 22 home runs in that time and stole 43 bases. His .280/.336/.467 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 112, at a level where the average age was almost 24. He’s also considered an above-average defender in center field. He received a late promotion to Triple-A and got into six games there.

It’s also possible that his batting line from this year masks his true talent. His scouting report at Baseball America notes that the Double-A Southern League experimented with a pre-tacked ball which led to increased pitch movement and disadvantaged hitters, but they switched to a traditional ball in July. Chourio hit .239/.304/.410 prior to the switch but .323/.380/.544 against the traditional ball.

Chourio is currently considered the #2 prospect in the league, behind Jackson Holliday, by BA, MLB Pipeline and the most recent list from Keith Law of The Athletic. He’s currently listed #3 at FanGraphs and the most recent list from ESPN.

It appears that the Brewers have plenty of faith in Chourio’s ability, despite the fact that he has just six games of experience above Double-A and is still a teenager for a few more months. The exact details of the contract being discussed aren’t known, but Rosenthal indicates it will top the previous benchmark for players who have yet to reach the majors.

As noted by Rosenthal, five different players have received extensions prior to their MLB debuts. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that, of those five deals, the two most lucrative were both given out by the White Sox. In March of 2019, they gave Eloy Jiménez a six-year, $43MM deal, then topped that the following January by giving Luis Robert Jr. $50MM over the same six-year term. The other three players are Jon Singleton, Scott Kingery and Evan White, who each received far more modest deals.

There’s certainly risk in giving out a significant deal to a player who hasn’t proven himself at the big league level, but the Brewers know that there’s also risk in waiting. Not too long ago, they parted with Josh Hader as he continued to thrive and earn higher salaries via arbitration. There are rumors that they may have to consider a similar path with Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames, who are each about to make eight-figure salaries before reaching free agency after 2024.

If the Brewers are able to get something done with Chourio, it should decrease their chances of finding themselves in a similar position in the future. If the deal goes beyond six years, as Rosenthal reports it will, it would also increase his chances of cracking the Opening Day roster in 2024. The club would then have no incentive to keep him down in the minors to start the year and try to gain an extra year of control.

If the club considers Chourio a viable option to start next year in the big leagues, it could perhaps give them an outfield surplus to trade from. They already have Christian Yelich, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer and Tyrone Taylor in the mix for playing time, with Blake Perkins and Chris Roller on the roster as depth options. Making someone in that group available on the trading block could perhaps allow the club to upgrade its infield or pitching staff during an offseason where there are few impact bats available and the demand for pitching is incredibly high.

Most extensions generally ramp up in terms of salary over time, vaguely resembling what a player might have received in the normal course of going through arbitration. The player gets some certainty over future earnings and protection against a significant injury while the club gains some extra control over the player’s future. Other than Yelich, the Brewers have very little on their long-term books. Aaron Ashby is signed through 2027 with two club options, while Freddy Peralta’s deal goes through 2024 with two club options.

Though there have been plenty of rumors about Burnes and Adames being dealt, it’s generally been expected that those theoretical deals would bring back MLB-ready talent to allow the club to continue competing despite their budgetary limitations. They clearly think Chourio can be a big part of their ability to keep the good times rolling and hope to keep him around for a while. For Chourio, he could potentially sign a 10-year deal and still reach free agency before his 30th birthday. Whether the two sides can find something that works for everyone remains to be seen.

Poll: Should The Brewers Trade Corbin Burnes?

By Darragh McDonald | November 28, 2023 at 5:27pm CDT

The Brewers have a ticking clock on their hands with Corbin Burnes. The right-hander has been excellent for them over the past four seasons but he’s now just one year away from free agency. They could have tried to sign him to an extension at some point but had not done so as of September of last year, per Burnes himself.

The pitcher recently expanded on the process in some comments with Fair Territory on November 17, as relayed by Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. “That was never something that we got to,” Burnes said when asked about extension talks. “Obviously, coming off the shortened season in 2020, having my first good year after signing [for] ‘21, I think for them it was, ‘Hey, wait and see if this was a one-off year,’ or if they thought this was something we could explore long-term.”

Burnes then goes on to explain that his continued success inflated his earning power so much that he was out of their price range and they didn’t want to bother insulting him with a lowball offer. This brought the two sides to the impasse where they currently find themselves. “I think a couple of years ago, I was open to going and getting something done, but I think at this point, both sides know that we’re a year away from free agency, and we want to see what the market can bring.”

As McCalvy lays out, that leaves the club with two distinct options. One is to hold onto Burnes and see what happens in 2024, which would still leave open the possibility of a midseason trade or receiving a compensation pick after extending a qualifying offer to Burnes. The other path is to trade him now.

The holding path certainly has its appeal. The club is the defending champion in the National League Central, after all. They will have to proceed without Brandon Woodruff, who was recently non-tendered in the wake of shoulder surgery. But he missed most of 2023 as well and the club still managed to thrive. Some other players also departed via free agency but the club could feasibly have a stronger outfield next year. Each of Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and Tyrone Taylor were held back by injuries and could perhaps contribute more next year, joining Christian Yelich and Joey Wiemer in a strong outfield mix.

Then there’s Jackson Chourio, one of the top prospects in the sport, who reached Triple-A in 2023 and could debut in 2024. The club and Chourio are reportedly discussing an extension, which could perhaps increase his chances of being a factor in 2024. That could then lead to an outfield surplus, which could allow the club to perhaps bolster their team while holding Burnes.

The club could stand to find some upgrades on the infield and in the back of the rotation, but they could have some money to do so. Roster Resource estimates next year’s payroll at $101MM right now. Last year’s Opening Day figure was $119MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, while they were at $132MM in 2022.

But the downside of the holding option is quite apparent with the example of Woodruff. The unfortunate reality with pitchers is that injury can quickly sap them of their value, both in terms of on-field contributions and trade value. If anything unfortunate were to develop with Burnes in 2024, the club could regret not cashing in when they had the chance.

By all accounts, the demand for starting pitching is high this winter and not every club is going to be jazzed about the idea of committing hundreds of millions of dollars over many years in order to upgrade their staff. Burnes is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an arbitration salary of $15.1MM next year, far cheaper than what top free agent arms will get, while also having the ability to recoup a compensatory draft pick at year’s end. Some club with a position player surplus but pitching needs may be willing to give up MLB-ready pieces to get Burnes, allowing Milwaukee to perhaps upgrade on the infield.

But the trade path isn’t easy either. The club is already going to be without Woodruff, so flipping Burnes would further weaken a rotation that has been such a strength for the club. With Wade Miley, Julio Teheran and Eric Lauer all free agents, a Milwaukee rotation without Burnes would consist of Freddy Peralta, Adrian Houser and Colin Rea, with options like Aaron Ashby, Bryse Wilson, Janson Junk and Robert Gasser also around. They could perhaps then use some of their funds to patch that over, but it’s obviously a better group with Burnes in it.

Looking at the broad picture, the division seems to be in a state of flux. The Cardinals are aggressively trying to put their miserable 2023 behind them, while the Cubs, Reds and Pirates are all coming out of their respective rebuilds at different speeds. With both Burnes and Willy Adames set for free agency a year from now, perhaps the Brewers should keep the gang together for one last heist, but doing so might hurt their chances of continuing to compete in 2025 and beyond.

What do you think? Should Burnes stay or go? Have your say in the poll below!

(poll link for app users)

Should The Brewers Trade Corbin Burnes This Offseason?

Yes, cash him in! 77.43% (6,981 votes)

No, hold and compete with him! 22.57% (2,035 votes)

Total Votes: 9,016

Brewers Agree To Minor League Deals With Easton McGee, Brewer Hicklen

By Steve Adams | November 28, 2023 at 11:38am CDT

The Brewers have signed right-hander Easton McGee and all-too-appropriately-named outfielder Brewer Hicklen to minor league contracts, reports Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. They’ll both be in major league camp during spring training, though McGee won’t be pitching, as he’ll still be rehabbing from last May’s Tommy John surgery. McCalvy further adds that McGee’s minor league deal is a two-year pact, so he’ll be in the Brewers system through at least the 2025 season.

McGee, 26 next month, appeared briefly in the big leagues with the 2022 Rays and 2023 Mariners, combining for 9 2/3 shutout innings. He fanned three hitters and walked just one during that time. He’s a soft-tosser by today’s standards, averaging 91.5 mph in ’22 and seeing that number drop to 90.1 mph prior to this past season’s surgery.

McGee was Tampa Bay’s fourth-round pick back in 2016, and though he doesn’t have power stuff or a history of elite run prevention in the upper minors (4.78 ERA in 141 Triple-A frames), he does boast outstanding command. He’s faced just shy of 2100 hitters since being drafted and walked only 4.6% of them. At 6’6″, his lanky frame likely helps his pedestrian fastball velocity play up a bit, and that standout command is difficult to develop in players. On what amounts to a no-risk minor league pickup for the Brewers, he’s a nice arm to stash in the system in hopes that he can eventually emerge as a back-end starter or perhaps a multi-inning reliever.

Hicklen, 28 in February, made his MLB debut with the 2022 Royals but went hitless in a minuscule sample of six plate appearances. He’s a 2017 seventh-round pick with a career .244/.348/.486 line at the plate in 853 Triple-A plate appearances.

While he didn’t hit for much power in 2023 (10 homers in 72 games), Hicklen popped 28 long balls with Kansas City’s Triple-A club in 2022 and has drawn praise for his plus-plus (70-grade) speed. Those wheels have been on display in Triple-A, where he’s swiped 56 bags in 61 tries. Overall, he’s stolen 186 bases in the minors with a hefty 85% success rate. He’s worked primarily in left field during his minor league career, but Hicklen has 1310 innings in right field and another 621 frames in center, so he’s capable of playing all three spots.

MLBTR Podcast: Aaron Nola, Non-Tenders And The Pace Of The Offseason

By Darragh McDonald | November 22, 2023 at 11:58pm CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

The Phillies re-sign Aaron Nola (0:50)
The Braves sign Reynaldo López (7:20)
The Cardinals sign Lance Lynn (10:30)
Interesting non-tenders, including Brandon Woodruff… (12:10)
Spencer Turnbull… (14:10)
..and Rowdy Tellez (17:10)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

Why is the MLB offseason so slow to get going? The other leagues, most of your top free agents are off the board within a few days. It’s been three weeks since players filed for free agency and nothing. (19:55)
Do you think the Dodgers do something major this year or will it be another disappointing offseason for the fans? (23:30)
Do you think the Pirates sign Rhys Hoskins or settle for someone cheaper? (26:20)

Check out our past episodes!

Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll – listen here
Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco) – listen here
Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow – listen here

Central Notes: Woodruff, Turnbull, Cardinals

By Nick Deeds | November 19, 2023 at 2:30pm CDT

The Brewers parted ways with right-handed ace Brandon Woodruff ahead of the non-tender deadline late last week, making the 30-year-old a free agent for the first time in his career. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic discussed the circumstances under which Woodruff became a free agent and his outlook entering the open market this morning, noting that the Brewers did receive interest from multiple clubs ahead of Friday’s deadline in acquiring Woodruff. The return in such a deal would have been negligible, however, and Rosenthal notes that Milwaukee decided to simply non-tender Woodruff rather than ship him to a team he might not prefer to join in exchange for a minimal return.

Now that the Brewers have allowed Woodruff to hit free agency, Rosenthal notes that the right-hander figures to receive two-year offers on the open market, suggesting that the total guarantee could clock in below the two-year, $30.35MM extension Rays righty Tyler Glasnow inked with the Rays last summer. Though Glasnow was in a somewhat similar situation to Woodruff at the time of the deal, having missed the entire 2022 season to that point due to Tommy John surgery, Glasnow was nearing a return from the procedure when he signed on to a deal that would cover his age-29 and -30 campaigns. Woodruff, by contrast, is expected to miss anywhere between six and eighteen months, per Rosenthal, and would be signing on for his age-31 and -32 campaigns.

More from around MLB’s central divisions…

Joining Woodruff on the free agent market after being non-tendered by the Tigers is right-hander Spencer Turnbull. Per Chris McCosky of The Detroit News, president of baseball operations tried to trade Turnbull ahead of Friday’s non-tender deadline but was unable to find any takers. The decision to non-tender Turnbull, McCosky notes, comes after a long-running saga of issues between the club’s decision to option Turnbull to Triple-A back in May (a move that was later rescinded due to an at-the-time undisclosed neck injury) and subsequent decision to option him a second time in August while he was working his way back from the neck injury and subsequent toe issue. Tensions between the sides got to the point that McCosky notes Turnbull requested a trade ahead of the trade deadline on August 1 this past summer, though of course no deal wound up occurring back then. Now a free agent, Turnbull figures to be among the more interesting rebound candidates on the rotation market this offseason, given his flashes of success from 2020-21 when he posted a 3.46 ERA and 3.24 FIP across 20 starts.
While the Cardinals are known to be in the market for multiple starting pitchers and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak referenced discussions he had with right-hander Aaron Nola’s representation in conversation with Tom Ackerman of KMOX, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes that the club’s interest in Nola never reached the point where the club met with the right-hander or made a formal offer prior to him re-signing with the Phillies earlier today. Though Goold notes that other NL clubs were “actively engaged” in attempting to lure Nola away from Philadelphia, he adds that the Cardinals were not among them, despite indications earlier in the offseason that the club would be interested in Nola’s services this winter. While Nola is now off the market, he’s far from the only top-of-the-market pitching free agent the Cardinals have been connected to this offseason, Veteran right-hander Sonny Gray has been connected to St. Louis multiple times so far this offseason, while the club also has reported interested in NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto and a potential reunion with southpaw Jordan Montgomery.

« Previous Page

Load More Posts

Show all

Headlines

Brewers Rumors

Navigation

MLBTR INFO

Connect