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The Brewers’ Offseason Heist Is Paying Off

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When a three-team deal was announced last December that saw ten different players change hands, it was hardly surprising that Sean Murphy’s move to Atlanta received the lion’s share of the focus, particularly considering the fact that Murphy inked a six-year extension with the Braves just two weeks later. After all, rumors of the A’s looking to move on from their franchise catcher had circulated for weeks at that point and the Braves, who were coming off a 101-win season that was ultimately cut short during the NLDS, were an interesting landing spot.

Nine months later, it’s unlikely the Braves have any regrets about the deal. Murphy has taken a step forward with the bat in Atlanta, slashing a sensational .278/.387/.538 with a career-best wRC+ of 149 that when combined with his typical stellar defense behind the plate has allowed the 28-year-old All-Star to rack up 4.3 fWAR in just 87 games this season. Meanwhile, the Braves are the consensus best team in baseball with Fangraphs’ playoff odds giving the club an incredibly 26.5% chance at winning the World Series this year.

While Atlanta’s success both in this season and in landing Murphy is impressive in its own right, the Braves are not the only winner of this trade to this point in the season. Indeed, they may not even be the biggest winner of the deal so far. That’s because the Brewers, the requisite third team needed to help facilitate the deal, managed to turn their #8 prospect in outfielder Esteury Ruiz into five seasons of an All-Star catcher of their own, plus an excellent set-up man and an additional pitching prospect to boot.

En route to a breakout season with Atlanta during which he made his first career All-Star appearance, catcher William Contreras shared time behind the plate with Travis d’Arnaud while also mixing in at DH and even in the outfield. In all, he slashed an impressive .278/.354/.506 with 20 home runs in just 376 trips to the plate.

While that impressive display of power combined with Contreras’s 10.4% walk rate was enough to make him the 12th most valuable catcher in all of baseball last year, there were reasons to wonder if the youngster would be able to maintain his production going forward. Contreras’s 27.7% strikeout rate left plenty of reason for concern, as was a massive .344 BABIP. With those potential red flags signalling possible regression in Contreras’s future, it’s hardly a surprise to find that his .370 wOBA in 2022 outstripped his .347 xwOBA considerably.

Far more concerning than his offensive numbers, which were excellent for a catcher even if they regressed to match his expected numbers, was his glovework behind the plate. In 2022, Contreras was worth -7 runs per Statcast’s catcher defense metric, with negative marks in each of framing, stealing, and blocking. His framing, in particular, left much to be desired, as he landed in just the 20th percentile of all catchers in terms of catcher framing runs, with only 3 catchers in the sport posting a worse figure than Contreras’s -3 without receiving more pitches than him. Fielding Bible’s DRS agreed with that assessment, as Contreras’s -4 mark put him in the bottom 20 of all catchers last year.

With so many questions regarding Contreras’s fielding and his ability to maintain last year’s excellent offensive production, it makes perfect sense for the Braves to prefer a fully developed, surefire starting catcher in the form of Murphy. That preference created a window of opportunity for the Brewers, however, who had just lost their current starting catcher, Omar Narvaez, to free agency. The club had a history of helping bat-first catchers develop defensively, including with Narvaez himself.

This year, Milwaukee has managed to add Contreras to their list of defensive success stories behind the plate. It’s been a transformational year defensively for Contreras, as the youngster has soared to an excellent +8 runs per Statcast, with his catcher framing runs in particular leaping from -3 all the way up to +7, the seventh-best mark in the sport this year behind only defensive stalwarts like Murphy, Austin Hedges, and Jonah Heim. Once again, DRS backs up Contreras’s improvement behind the dish as well, as his +7 DRS leaves him as the eighth most valuable defensive catcher in baseball according to the metric, even clocking in ahead of Murphy.

Contreras’s defense is clearly the star of the show when discussing his year-to-year improvement, but his offensive adjustments deserve a mention as well. While he has undergone some expected offensive regression from his All-Star campaign in 2022, particularly in the power department, his current production is not only still excellent for a catcher (his 113 wRC+ ranks 6th among catchers with at least 300 PA this season) but also appears far more sustainable going forward. His BABIP has dipped to a less outlandish .327 figure, but most importantly, Contreras has cut his strikeout rate to just 20.4%, a figure that’s actually better than league average. While his walk rate has dipped slightly and he isn’t hitting for as much power this season, this new version of Contreras is posting a strong .341 wOBA that matches his .338 xwOBA, indicating a level of sustainability that couldn’t be found in last season’s power-driven numbers.

Contreras isn’t the only player the Brewers received in last year’s trade, of course. While pitching prospect Justin Yeager has managed just 2 1/3 innings of work this season while spending almost the entire year on the injured list, right-handed reliever Joel Payamps has also proved to be a revelation with Milwaukee, though not quite as impactful of one as Contreras. Payamps came to the Brewers as a solid if unexciting middle reliever, with a career 3.35 ERA and 4.19 FIP in 113 innings of work with the Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Royals, and A’s.

Since joining the Brewers, however, he’s looked like a different pitcher entirely. His walk rate dipped from a career 7.6% mark entering 2023 to just 5% this season, while his strikeout rate ballooned from a career mark of just 17.6% entering the year to an incredible 29.3% figure with Milwaukee. Those improvements are seemingly thanks to a combination of across-the-board velocity gains and change in his pitch-mix to emphasis his slider. Payamps’ step forward has allowed the Brewers to rely on him as the primary set-up man to closer Devin Williams, forming a lethal duo at the back of the club’s bullpen.

As with any trade, a few months isn’t enough time to understand the full scope of the impact last year’s three-team blockbuster will have on the clubs involved. Ruiz, who has posted a wRC+ of just 81 with Oakland this year but has offered plus defense in center field and swiped a whopping 48 bags, could prove to be a valuable piece in the coming years and change the perception of the deal. True as that may be, however, Milwaukee’s front office is surely delighted with the early returns on the deal, particularly considering they control Payamps through the end of the 2026 campaign and Contreras through the end of 2027.

Poll: Who’s Going To Win The NL Central?

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With the Cardinals’ surprisingly disappointing season taking them out of contention early, the NL Central has been thrown wide open in 2023.  Even the Pirates looked like they might have a breakout in them after an impressive 19-9 start in April, though their subsequent struggles have shown that the Bucs aren’t yet out of the rebuilding woods.

That has left three teams still in the mix, as the Brewers, Reds, and Cubs enter Sunday’s action battling for not only the NL Central title, but playoff berths of any sort via the wild card.  Milwaukee holds a three-game lead in the division, while the Cubs are just narrowly ahead of Cincinnati by percentage points, which also puts Chicago into the final NL wild card slot.

In something of a topsy-turvy year in the division, the Brewers have been the constant.  Milwaukee has spent the entire season either in first place, or no more than two games behind the NLC lead.  This success has come despite a middling Pythagorean record — the Brewers have outscored opponents by just a single run, yet have a 67-57 record.  With tiebreakers possibly looming as a factor, the Brewers have already won the season series with the Reds (with a dominant 10-3 record) and have a 4-3 edge in games against the Cubs.

As per usual, the Brew Crew has leaned on their pitching to win games, even their usually strong rotation has been more good than great in 2023.  A number of injuries have impacted the pitching mix, most notably a shoulder strain for Brandon Woodruff that cost the former All-Star about four months of action.  Milwaukee’s best pitching performances have come at the back of the bullpen, as closer Devin Williams and setup man Joel Payamps have been arguably baseball’s best one-two endgame combination.  This ability to hold close leads has been the main factor in the Brewers’ 25-11 record in one-run games, though that kind of anomalous success might hint at some regression.

While Milwaukee’s pitching has helped prop up a lackluster offense, the Reds have something of the opposite problem.  The emergence of Cincinnati’s core of top prospects has been one of the top stories of the 2023 season, as rookies Spencer Steer, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, and Will Benson have all helped carry the Reds out of a rebuild and to a 64-60 record.  Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Noelvi Marte have also made their MLB debuts to add to this position player core, not to mention the contributions of Jonathan India, Jake Fraley, TJ Friedl, and the ageless Joey Votto.

With a 29-35 record on June 9, the Reds suddenly shot into relevance and contention with a 12-game winning streak, and they’ve stayed afloat ever since, despite a rough 1-8 start to the month of August.  Beyond the question of how the rookies can hold up under pennant race pressure, Cincinnati’s bigger issue is a lack of pitching, as Reds starters rank in the bottom three in the league in both ERA and WHIP.  The returns of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Ben Lively from the injured list are being counted on to boost the rotation, as the Reds didn’t acquire any starting pitching at the trade deadline.

Just a month ago, the idea of the Cubs competing for the NL Central title would’ve seemed inconceivable, as the Wrigleyville nine had a 43-50 record.  Just when it looked like Chicago might be one of the key sellers at the trade deadline, however, the team caught fire.  The Cubs went 18-6 over 24 games between July 18 and August 12, finishing second in baseball in runs (160), RBI (151), average (.291), slugging percentage (.508) and wRC+ (135) in that stretch.  Cody Bellinger’s huge run at the plate fueled a lot of that offensive eruption, but unheralded minor league signing Mike Tauchman wasn’t far behind Bellinger’s numbers.  The late success turned the Cubs into deadline buyers, and after coming back to Chicago in a deal with the Nationals, Jeimer Candelario has also been on fire.

Chicago’s rotation has been solid overall, yet it took a big hit with the news that Marcus Stroman will miss the next several weeks recovering from a rib cartilage fracture.  Losing one of their two best starters for an extended period (and maybe even the rest of the season) will test the Cubs’ starting depth, and the lineup might have to keep carrying the load to keep the team in the race.

With apologies to the Cardinals and Pirates, we’re going to assume that a miraculous late-season surge isn’t coming, so we’re going to limit the poll choices to the top three contenders. Who do you think will finish atop the NL Central standings?  (Link to poll for app users)

Who will win the NL Central?
Brewers 54.36% (5,757 votes)
Cubs 33.97% (3,597 votes)
Reds 11.67% (1,236 votes)
Total Votes: 10,590

Brewers Reportedly Willing To Consider Relocation

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The Brewers have apparently given some thought to considering relocation, per a report from Molly Beck of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. At issue is the club’s lease on American Family Field, with negotiations over a new funding package for improvements yet to reach an agreement, as detailed by reports from Tom Daykin of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Beck’s report indicates the club could start looking for a new home this fall if a deal isn’t in place by then.

American Family Field is owned by a public agency called the Southeast Wisconsin Professional Baseball District, who leases the stadium to the Brewers. The current lease runs through 2030 and requires the agency to pay for improvements present in at least 75% of all other MLB stadiums. The district must also replace or repair infrastructure items consistent with the replacement items of the top 25% of all MLB parks.

Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers, a Democrat, proposed a $290 billion spending package earlier in the year as part of a deal that would get the Brewers to sign an extension keeping them in Milwaukee through 2043. When combined with interest and the $70MM that the district already has on hand, this would have eventually led to $448MM in spending.

That deal was scrapped by Republican lawmakers, who control the legislature. They have been negotiating a separate deal, the full details of which have not been released, though they want local governments to contribute. Local officials don’t seem to be on board, noting that they are facing challenges just covering basic services like police, sanitation and parks. Back in May, the Milwaukee County Board voted 17-0 to support a resolution calling for no county funding on American Family Field improvements. That was signed by Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley in June, though Crowley has reportedly expressed a willingness more recently to find a way to free up local revenue that could be used for stadium renovations. A financing package from the Legislature would also need to pass in the Senate. “We hope to have a finalized proposal in the near future,” said Assembly Speaker Robin Vos. “We do not want the (Brewers) to leave, nor do we think they will.”

Major League Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred visited Milwaukee in May and cited the Oakland Athletics, who are in the process of moving to Las Vegas, as a cautionary tale for the Brewers. He said that Oakland government officials “made some unfortunate decisions not to maintain the ballpark in the way that it needed to be maintained” and stressed the importance of officials getting a deal in place for the Brewers.

As mentioned, the current lease runs through 2030, meaning that a deal doesn’t need to be completed immediately. However, moving a franchise from one city to another is a process that takes years to explore and implement, so the club would have to proactively start considering the details of such plans if they thought it was a real possibility. The A’s began pursuing relocation in May of 2021, a process that is still playing out over two years later.

The fact that the Brewers have some willingness to consider relocation plans in the future doesn’t mean they are highly plausible to come together, however. Professional sports franchises often dangle the threat of relocation as a way to try to spur urgency from government officials in funding negotiations. It’s quite rare for a relocation plan to actually come to fruition, despite the impending move of the A’s to Vegas. Since the Washington Senators became the Texas Rangers in 1971, there has only been one instance of an MLB club moving, which was the Montreal Expos becoming the Washington Nationals in 2004.

There are various cities that have been suggested as potential future homes for MLB teams, such as Nashville, Portland and Salt Lake City. The league would eventually like to expand from 30 to 32 teams, but Manfred has repeatedly said that the A’s and Rays have to resolve their respective stadium situations before expansion will be on the table. The A’s moving to Vegas isn’t a done deal but seems quite far along in the process. The Rays don’t have a deal firmly in place either but seem to be making progress towards a resolution for a new stadium. That situation would theoretically become more complicated if the Brewers don’t get a deal in place in the near future. There’s also at least some uncertainty around the Orioles given the standoff in their lease negotiations.

The situation in Milwaukee is less pressing, with a few extra years on the lease. The Orioles lease expires at the end of this year, the Athletics’ lease on their current stadium runs through 2024 while the Rays have a lease that goes through 2027. With the Brewers having a deal in place through 2030, they have more time to figure out a plan to stay in Milwaukee. For now, it seems the expectation of everyone involved is that the club will stay. The Brewers want “Major League Baseball to remain in Wisconsin for the next generation and beyond,” says Rick Schlesinger, president of business operations for the team. Manfred said in May that he thinks “the Brewers are interested in a long-term relationship and an extension of the lease that’ll keep them here.” The possibility of relocation would vanish as soon as a new deal is in place, but it will likely only become more real as time passes without one.

White Sox Acquire Tyler Naquin

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The White Sox acquired veteran outfielder Tyler Naquin from the Brewers in exchange for cash, the teams announced. Naquin will head to the White Sox’ Triple-A affiliate in Charlotte and is expected to be in the Knights’ lineup tomorrow, tweets Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times.

[Related: How to acquire players after the trade deadline]

Naquin, 32, was eligible to be traded by virtue of the fact that he hasn’t been on a 40-man roster or major league injured list at any point this season. He signed a minor league pact with Milwaukee back in March and has spent the entire season to date with their Triple-A affiliate in Nashville. The seven-year big league veteran has slashed .284/.333/.432 with six homers in 160 plate appearances this season. He’s been on and off the active roster a few times due to injury — most recently some minor shoulder troubles.

A first-round pick back in 2012, Naquin made his big league debut in 2016 with Cleveland. He’s logged Major League time each season since, also making stops in Cincinnati and Queens, hitting at a .264/.318/.444 clip in 1811 MLB plate appearances. Naquin has experience in center field but is better suited to play a corner. He’s a left-handed hitter who’s been held to a meager .210/.272/.339 slash against lefties but has tagged righties for a much heartier .274/.326/.468 slash in his career.

While Naquin won’t immediately jump onto Chicago’s big league roster, the uncertain state of the South Siders’ outfield could get him a look at some point. Top prospect Oscar Colas struggled considerably in right field early in the season before being optioned to Triple-A, and he hasn’t improved in a month since his recall. Dating back to July 4, Colas has hit .229/.253/.289 with a 29.9% strikeout rate and 3.4% walk rate in 87 plate appearances. The White Sox do have some outfield alternatives in Triple-A who are already on the 40-man roster — Clint Frazier, Adam Haseley — but both have been in the minors for more than a month now.

If the Sox ultimately feel there’s no spot on the big league roster for Naquin, they could still trade him a second time this month. They’d likely only pick up cash in return, as is common in post-deadline swaps of this nature.

Brewers Reinstate Bennett Sousa

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The Brewers reinstated reliever Bennett Sousa from the 60-day injured list and optioned him to Triple-A Nashville, per the transaction log at MLB.com. Milwaukee transferred Justin Wilson from the 15-day to the 60-day IL to clear the necessary 40-man roster spot.

Sousa missed a couple months with a nerve issue in his throwing shoulder. Acquired from the division-rival Reds in April, the 28-year-old southpaw has made a pair of appearances for the Brew Crew this season. He’s logged 16 innings with Nashville, allowing 10 runs (nine earned). He’s fanned 22 hitters at the top minor league level. Milwaukee acquired Andrew Chafin at the trade deadline to pair with Hoby Milner as left-handed options for Craig Counsell. Now that he’s healthy, Sousa is in the mix behind them.

Wilson’s brutally-timed injury could well have increased Milwaukee’s urgency to trade for Chafin. The veteran lefty strained a lat while warming up for what would’ve been his first appearance after a Tommy John rehab. He’ll miss the remainder of the season and seems quite likely to be bought out next winter, meaning he might never make an appearance as a Brewer.

Justin Wilson Won’t Pitch Again In 2023

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When the Brewers placed Justin Wilson on the 15-day injured list on July 29, it was expected that the southpaw was in for another lengthy absence.  Manager Craig Counsell described Wilson’s left lat strain as “pretty significant” at the time, and Counsell updated reporters (including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) on Friday that Wilson will indeed miss the rest of the 2023 season.

Wilson’s year will end without a single MLB appearance, as his time on the Brewers’ active roster was short-lived.  Milwaukee only activated Wilson from the 60-day IL on July 28, as the left-hander was returning from Tommy John surgery rehab.  Unfortunately, Wilson was warming up in the bullpen for his first appearance of the season when he suffered his lat strain, thus ending his Brewers debut before it officially happened.  Between this injury and the TJ surgery, Wilson has only pitched in five games (for 3 2/3 innings) since the start of the 2022 season.

The Brew Crew signed Wilson to a one-year free agent deal last offseason worth $1MM in guaranteed money — $850K in salary for 2023, and a $150K buyout of a $2.5MM club option for 2024.  The contract was designed to give Milwaukee some flexibility if Wilson ended up missing most or all of the season due to Tommy John rehab, so in theory, the lat strain shouldn’t much change the original equation for the team.  On the other hand, $2.5MM is a decent amount of money for a medium-payroll team to spend on a veteran (Wilson turns 36 this month) reliever who hasn’t pitched in almost two full seasons.  This isn’t a decision the Brewers will have to make until after the World Series is over, so there’s plenty of time for the club to monitor Wilson’s recovery from the lat injury.

In better injury news for the Brewers, Counsell said that Rowdy Tellez is slated to begin a Triple-A rehab assignment on Tuesday.  Tellez hasn’t played since July 4, as a 10-day IL stint that started due to forearm inflammation was then extended when Tellez broke the fingertip on his left ring finger in a fluke accident while shagging fly balls before a game.

Rays Acquire Alex Jackson

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The Rays and Brewers agreed to terms on a minor swap earlier today that sent catcher Alex Jackson to Tampa Bay in exchange for right-hander Evan McKendry. The Rays have announced the swap.

Jackson, 27, was the sixth selection overall in the 2014 draft by the Mariners and made his big league debut with the Braves in 2019. Though he’s appeared in the majors every season since then, he’s never managed to stick on a big league roster or hit in the majors, with a career slash line of just .141/.243/.227 in 185 major league plate appearances. He’s hit better in the minor leagues, with a career slash line of .244/.327/.523 in 905 trips to the plate at the Triple-A level. Between those minor league results, his previous draft pedigree, and his relative youth, Jackson is an interesting depth addition for a Rays club that needed additional catching depth after Francisco Mejia went on the injured list with a sprained knee two weeks ago.

To acquire Jackson, they’ll part with McKendry, a 25-year-old pitching prospect the club selected in the ninth round of the 2019 draft. With a career 4.00 ERA in 110 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level and a 23.6% strikeout rate during that time, McKendry figures to provide the Brewers with upper-level pitching depth going forward, a particularly valuable commodity given right-hander Julio Teheran’s recent placement on the injured list. While the Rays have dealt with plenty of pitching injuries of their own, McKendry’s loss is made up for by today’s acquisition of right-hander Adrian Sampson, to say nothing of yesterday’s blockbuster that brought back Aaron Civale.

Red Sox Acquire Luis Urías

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The Red Sox announced that they have acquired infielder Luis Urías from the Brewers for minor league right-hander Bradley Blalock. Robert Murray of FanSided first had Urías going to the Red Sox while Adam McCalvy of MLB.com first reported on Blalock’s involvement.

Urías, 26, seemed to be establishing himself as a solid part of the Milwaukee roster in the previous two seasons. Over 2021 and 2022, he launched 39 home runs and hit a combined .244/.340/.426 for a wRC+ of 111. This year, however, has been an entirely different story.

He was placed on the injured list with a hamstring strain after the first game of the season and wasn’t able to return until June 5. In the next three-plus weeks, he hit just .145/.299/.236 for a wRC+ of 60. A .179 batting average on balls in play wasn’t doing him any favors, but his exit velocity, hard hit rate and barrel rate were all down a few points. That cold spell was pronounced enough for the Brewers to send him to the minors, his first time being optioned since he was a Padre back in 2019. Things haven’t gone much better in Triple-A, as he’s hitting .233/.345/.379 at that level this year for a wRC+ of 84.

Right after acquiring Urías, the Sox assigned him to Triple-A, so he’ll serve as infield depth for the time being. Infield depth has been an ongoing concern in Boston this year ever since Trevor Story required elbow surgery in the offseason. He’s still yet to make his season debut, currently out on a rehab assignment. Enrique Hernández came in from the outfield to take over shortstop but that experiment didn’t work and he’s since been traded to the Dodgers.

For now, the club has a mixture of Yu Chang, Pablo Reyes, Christian Arroyo and Justin Turner up the middle. Urías will join Bobby Dalbec among the depth options that are on the 40-man roster but currently stashed at Triple-A. Urías has another option year beyond this one but could wind up non-tendered as he’ll be due a raise on this year’s $4.7MM salary.

In exchange for a player that had fallen out of their plans, the Brewers will get Blalock. The 22-year-old was a 32nd-round selection of the Red Sox in 2019. He was able to get some professional experience in 2019 and 2021, with the pandemic canceling the minor leagues in 2020. Then his 2022 was wiped out by Tommy John surgery, costing him another year of development.

Here in 2023, he’s been putting himself back on the prospect map. He’s made 11 starts, split between Single-A and High-A, posting a 2.19 ERA in 53 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27.6% of opponents against a 6.2% walk rate. Back in June, FanGraphs ranked him the #17 prospect in Boston’s system. They note that the Sox were set to have a difficult decision to make, as Blalock will be Rule 5 eligible this winter and could be an attractive pick, despite not yet reaching Double-A.

Brewers, Diamondbacks Swap Andrew Chafin For Peter Strzelecki

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The Brewers have picked up left-hander Andrew Chafin in a trade with the Diamondbacks, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link).  John Gambadoro of 98.7 FM Phoenix reports that right-hander Peter Strzelecki is headed back to the D’Backs in return.  Rosenthal linked Milwaukee to Chafin’s market earlier today.

Give how Arizona also just landed Paul Sewald from the Mariners yesterday, it makes for an interesting buy/sell dynamic with the Diamondbacks’ front office.  Obviously the D’Backs have designs on reaching the postseason, yet still opted to pull the trigger on dealing a reliever who is technically a rental player, since Chafin only signed a one-year, $6.25MM deal last winter.  However, he is controllable through next season via a $7.25MM club option ($750K buyout), so the Brew Crew could potentially be viewing Chafin as a member of their 2024 bullpen.  Incidentally, Chafin also receives a $250K bonus now that he has been traded.

That said, the D’Backs are also getting back a controllable reliever in Strzelecki, who has posted some good results over his two MLB seasons.  Since Strzelecki isn’t a free agent until after the 2028 season and naturally comes at a much lower price tag than Chafin, the Diamondbacks saved some money while perhaps not taking much of a hit to the overall quality of their relief corps.

Chafin has a 4.19 ERA over 34 1/3 innings this season, with that number only just inflated by a disastrous outing (five runs in two-thirds of an inning) against the Braves on July 24.  The southpaw’s SIERA is a more solid 3.38, and his 32.7% strikeout rate put him the 94th percentile of all pitchers.  Chafin’s control has fluctuated throughout his career, and the pendulum has swung down this season, as he has an ungainly 12.0% walk rate.

Now in his 10th MLB season, Chafin has been a generally reliable relief arm over his career, and he’ll now change uniforms once again to join a Brewers team in severe need of left-handed depth.  While Hoby Milner is having a strong season, he has been the only left-hander in Milwaukee’s bullpen for most of the season.  The Brewers were hoping to have Justin Wilson back from Tommy John surgery, yet Wilson unfortunately suffered a lat strain while warming up in his return outing, and was placed back onto the 15-day injured list.

With no timeline yet on Wilson’s return, it is easy to see why the Brewers were so aggressive in seeking out another left-hander, and in dealing a controllable pitcher from their right-handed relief depth.  Strzelecki was an undrafted free agent for the Brewers in 2018, but he made his way to the majors to toss 70 2/3 innings for Milwaukee over the last two seasons.  Despite near-identical SIERAs (3.47 and 3.66) and pretty similar secondary metrics over his two years of work, Strzelecki had a 2.83 ERA over 35 frames in 2022, but a 4.54 ERA in 35 2/3 innings this season.

One of a few hidden pitching gems uncovered by the Brewers front office and pitching development staff, Strzelecki has a 25.3% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate over his career, both above the league average.  A slightly loss of control (though not in the walk category) could be one reason for Strzelecki’s relative dropoff in performance this year, as he has hit eight batters.  The Brewers only just called Strzelecki back up from the minors after a month-long stint at Triple-A, and he didn’t make another appearance prior to the trade.

Diamondbacks Listening To Trade Offers On Andrew Chafin, Joe Mantiply

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11:40am: Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds the Cubs and Twins as fits for Chafin. The Cubs have Anthony Kay as their only traditional lefty reliever right now. The Twins have Jovani Moran and Caleb Thielbar, the latter of whom just returned from the injured list.

11:06am: The Diamondbacks made a big addition to their bullpen yesterday when they acquired Paul Sewald from the Mariners. It seems they have at least some openness to now subtracting from their relief corps, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports they have fielded offers for lefties Andrew Chafin and Joe Mantiply, with the Brewers listed as a team with interest in Chafin.

On the surface, it’s a little bit curious to see the Diamondbacks considering this path, as they just parted with infielder Josh Rojas, rookie outfielder Dominic Canzone and infield prospect Ryan Bliss in order to upgrade their bullpen with Sewald. They are currently tied with two other clubs for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. To now turn and remove pieces from the group would be a bit of an odd move, though listening on offers doesn’t necessarily mean the club will indeed make a move, as front offices are generally open to listening on all offers in order to gauge the market.

Chafin, 33, has long been one of the better lefty relievers in the league, with a 3.31 career earned run average over 519 appearances. Over 2021 and 2022, he made 135 of those appearances, posting a 2.29 ERA with a 25.7% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate and 47.9% ground ball rate. The Diamondbacks were able to bring him aboard on a one-year deal this offseason, guaranteeing him $6.25MM in the form of a $5.5MM salary plus a $750K buyout on a $7.25MM club option. There’s also $1MM in bonuses available, with Chafin getting $250K at 55, 60, 65 and 70 appearances, then another $250K bonus if he’s traded.

He has already made 43 appearances on the year, putting him close to triggering those bonuses. His 4.19 ERA in that time is obviously a drop-off from his recent work, though there’s still some decent numbers under the hood. His 35.4% grounder rate and 12% walk rate are less than ideal, but his 32.7% strikeout rate is easily a career best. A .350 batting average on balls in play has probably helped some extra runs across the board, leading to a 3.13 FIP and 3.38 SIERA.

Left-handed relief is always in demand and there would likely be plenty of clubs willing to look past Chafin’s ERA, especially given his long track record of success and intriguing strikeout bump. Rosenthal says the Diamondbacks are still looking for starting pitching, something that general manager Mike Hazen has long been open about. They might not be able to flip a reliever like Chafin for meaningful help in the rotation but it makes sense that they would at least listen to see what’s possible. They would still have Kyle Nelson and Tyler Gilbert as lefties in their bullpen even without Chafin.

Arizona listening on Mantiply is far easier to understand. He had a really solid showing in the previous two seasons, posting a combined 3.07 ERA in 2021 and 2022, getting selected to the All-Star game in the latter season. He struck out 23.6% of opponents in that time while walking just 5.5% and kept the ball on the ground at a 50.5% pace.

Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to carry that into 2023, as he has a 5.74 ERA in 15 2/3 innings. He’s been on the injured list twice, once due to left shoulder inflammation and then a right hamstring strain. He’s been sent to Triple-A Reno on optional assignment twice, the second of which is currently ongoing. He has a 7.30 ERA down at that level. But his rate stats are still decent this year, with poor strand rates and some extra fly balls leaving the yard perhaps making things look worse than they actually are. If any club is willing to bank on Mantiply’s past results and hope for a bounceback, it would make sense for the Diamdondbacks to hear that out since he’s not even on their active roster at the moment.

The Brewers have operated with one lefty, Hoby Milner, for most of the year. They had Justin Wilson come off the injured list this week after over a year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but he quickly landed right back on the IL due to a lat strain. They’re a fairly sensible landing spot for a southpaw reliever as they battle with for the Central division title or a Wild Card spot in the National League.

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