Twins Rumors

Twins ace Kenta Maeda underwent Tommy John surgery today, manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press and Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). The operation involved the placement of an internal brace in Maeda’s elbow that apparently has a chance to expedite the recovery timeline. While Tommy John rehabilitation typically takes around fourteen months, Baldelli suggested Maeda could return in between nine and twelve months time. A more definitive timetable will be apparent a few months from now.

It’s not a particularly surprising development, as Baldelli acknowledged that a Tommy John procedure was a possibility when he announced that Maeda would be going under the knife last week. Nevertheless, it’s unquestionably disappointing for a Minnesota team that — even in a best-case scenario — will have to navigate at least half the season without their top pitcher.

Even if everything progresses well, it seems unlikely Maeda will be able to return before next season’s All-Star Break. A nine-month shutdown would keep the right-hander from throwing until early June. He’ll need at least a few weeks to build up arm strength once he’s cleared to begin throwing and will have to embark upon a lengthy minor league rehab assignment.

Losing Maeda makes the Twins’ attempt to compete in 2022 all the more difficult. While Minnesota was widely expected to contend for the American League Central entering this season, the team started dreadfully and played their way out of the playoff picture almost immediately. They enter play tonight 58-74, placing them at the bottom of the division with a -100 run differential.

The rotation has been perhaps the biggest reason for that massive underperformance. Offseason pickups Matt Shoemaker and J.A. Happ didn’t pan out. Maeda and Michael Pineda both dealt with injuries. José Berríos was great but was shipped off to the Blue Jays at the deadline. That leaves Minnesota relying on an unproven starting staff for the stretch run with plenty of opportunity for the younger arms to earn a spot in next year’s season-opening rotation.

Only Bailey Ober appears to have locked down one of those spots thanks to a strong rookie year. Prospect Joe Ryan — acquired from the Rays in the Nelson Cruz trade — is making his big league debut tonight. Griffin Jax and Randy Dobnak have generally disappointed this season, and the Twins are also giving looks to soft-tossing journeyman Andrew Albers and reliever-turned-starter John Gant. Pineda, who is currently on the injured list, will be a free agent at season’s end. Prospect Jordan Balazovic might get his first MLB call at some point over the next couple weeks.

Rebuilding that rotation will be the top priority for the Twins’ front office this winter. Minnesota will have plenty of payroll space over the offseason but virtually no certainty in the starting staff. They figure to be very active players in a free agent market that’ll features Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, Robbie Ray and Carlos Rodón at the top of the class and also includes notables like Anthony DeSclafani, Zack Greinke, Corey Kluber, Justin Verlander, and Alex Wood. With much of a quality position player group still in place, the rotation was likely the big-ticket issue for the Twins even before Maeda’s injury.

Missing a substantial chunk of time will come at a pretty significant financial cost for Maeda. The 33-year-old’s contract is heavily incentive-laden due to concerns the Dodgers’ front office had about the results of his physical. Maeda is guaranteed just $3MM annually (with additional $150K roster bonuses each season) through 2023. He unlocks a $1MM bonus for reaching his fifteenth and twentieth starts of each season, with additional incentives available based on starts.

Maeda also picks up $250K for reaching ninety innings each year, with additional $250K increments locked in for each ten innings accrued thereafter — maxing out at 200 frames. Until a more definite timetable is revealed, it’s impossible to know precisely how much Maeda will lose because of the surgery. It at least seems as if he’ll miss out on the majority of his earning upside in 2022 as a result of today’s operation.

Kenta Maeda will undergo elbow surgery next week, Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). It won’t be known exactly what procedure Maeda will require until he goes under the knife, but it’s possible he’ll need a full Tommy John surgery.

Obviously, Maeda’s timetable will depend on the kind of procedure he ultimately undergoes.  If Maeda does require a complete reconstruction, that would probably rule him out for the entirety of the 2022 season, since Tommy John surgeries typically require rehab timelines of fourteen-plus months. Even a surgery of lesser severity could threaten his readiness for the start of next season.

For instance, Astros left-hander Kent Emanuel had an undetermined amount of ligament damage in his elbow at the time he underwent surgery in June. As with Maeda, it wasn’t clear at the time whether Emanuel would need a full reconstruction. During the operation, it was determined that he didn’t need to undergo TJS, but the procedure he did undergo still came with a nine-month recovery timeline. That’s just one example, and it’s not a given that Maeda is facing the same options Emanuel was. But it’s illustrative that even avoiding Tommy John surgery in these situations could still require a significant recovery period.

The Twins are playing out the string for the rest of 2021, so the effects of losing Maeda for the remainder of this season are relatively minimal. His absence potentially extending into 2022 would be devastating for a Minnesota team hoping to return to contention next season. With José Berríos traded to the Blue Jays before this summer’s deadline, Maeda is by far the most accomplished member of Minnesota’s starting staff.

Michael Pineda is slated to hit free agency this offseason, leaving Bailey Ober, Charlie Barnes, Griffin Jax, Lewis Thorpe and Randy Dobnak as the other starters controllable into 2022. That’s an unproven group insufficient for a hopeful contender. Prospects like Jordan Balazovic or Joe Ryan could pitch their way into the mix at some point soon, but starting pitching already looked to be the biggest area of need for Minnesota this winter. Even if Maeda doesn’t require Tommy John surgery, the front office will have to proceed through the offseason without the comfort of seeing their top in-house pitcher having logged any game action after an elbow procedure of some note.

It’s a disappointing end to the toughest season of Maeda’s six-year big league career. The right-hander consistently posted above-average numbers between 2016-19 with the Dodgers. Minnesota acquired him over the 2019-20 offseason and he had a career-best campaign in last year’s shortened season. Maeda worked to a 2.70 ERA over 66 2/3 innings, earning a runner-up finish in AL Cy Young award balloting.

Maeda couldn’t replicate that success this season, as that ERA ballooned to a career-worst 4.66 over 106 1/3 frames. The 33-year-old has seen significant declines in strikeout and ground-ball rates relative to last season, which looks like a bit of an outlier. But Maeda’s strikeout and walk numbers are still solid, and his 3.97 SIERA suggests he’s at least still a quality arm as he was for his couple seasons in Los Angeles.

If Maeda is forced to miss significant time in 2022, that’d come with serious financial consequences. His original eight-year deal with the Dodgers was heavily incentive-laden because of the L.A. front office’s concern about his medical outlook. Maeda is guaranteed just $3.125MM annually, with millions of dollars in bonuses available via games started and innings thresholds.