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Twins To Sign Alex Colome

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Feb. 4: The option on the deal is mutual, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune indicates. If the Twins decline the $5.5MM option, they’ll owe Colome a $1.25MM buyout. If the Twins pick up the option but Colome declines in favor of free agency, he won’t receive any buyout.

Feb. 3: The Twins are signing free-agent reliever Alex Colome to a one-year deal, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The contract includes a $5MM salary for 2021 and an option. In all, it’s a $6.25MM guarantee, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

The Twins were mentioned as suitors for Colome earlier Wednesday, so it isn’t surprising they’re bringing in the former Ray, Mariner and White Sox. The 32-year-old right-hander could now be the closer for Minnesota, having saved 138 games in the bigs. He converted 12 of 13 saves with the division-rival White Sox last year.

Colome, who averages 94 mph-plus on his fastball, has saved nearly 86 percent of chances in his career. At times, though, his strikeout numbers have fallen short. Last season, for instance, he ranked 126th out of 141 relievers with at least 20 innings in strikeout percentage (17.8). Colome did, however, finish better than average in walk and groundball rates (9.2 percent and 52.4 percent, respectively). He was also a Statcast darling who ranked above the vast majority of hurlers in several of its important categories.

The Twins’ bullpen checked in third in the majors in fWAR in 2020, though it has since lost Trevor May to the Mets in free agency, while Tyler Clippard and Sergio Romo – who combined for 43 frames – remain available. The addition of Colome should help plug those holes for Minnesota.

Twins Interested In Colome, Wilson, Clippard

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3:56pm: Minnesota’s “expected” to sign Colome, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.

1:32pm: In addition to Colome, the Twins have shown interest in re-signing Clippard and in signing lefty Justin Wilson, Hayes further reports. Minnesota has also at least gauged the price tags of Shane Greene, Mark Melancon, Joakim Soria and Trevor Rosenthal, though the latter two could be seeking more than the Twins are comfortable committing to them, Hayes adds. It’s a wide slate of candidates, but the Twins could sign multiple relievers to bolster their relief corps.

9:07am: It’s been a busy couple of weeks for the Twins, but they’re still pursuing upgrades after finally agreeing to a new deal with designated hitter Nelson Cruz last night. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the Twins have interest in adding Alex Colome to their bullpen and are still looking at options to fill out their rotation. Twins fans hoping to see the club roll the dice on a Mike Foltynewicz rebound after watching his recent showcase may not get their wish, though, as SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson tweets that a signing is “more unlikely than likely.” Wolfson does suggest that the Twins have a current offer out to a reliever.

This isn’t the first time the Twins have been tied to Colome. However, in the month since that initial link, they’ve spent a combined $31.5MM on Cruz, Andrelton Simmons and J.A. Happ, so maintained interest in one of the better relievers remaining on the market wasn’t necessarily a given. The Twins currently project to open the season with a payroll in the $123MM range, but they’d have been north of $130MM last year prior to prorated salaries.

Owner Jim Pohlad recently voiced a vastly different mindset than many of his counterparts throughout the league, telling reporters he’s not looking at ways to “make up” for lost revenue from the 2020 season by slashing payroll (link via La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune).

“We don’t really think of it like that,” Pohlad said in a Zoom call. “I’m not sure if we can ever make up for it. None of our objective includes trying to make up for what happened in 2020. It was significant. It was devastating. And you have to accept that as a loss going forward and not make it a goal to recover those losses either from fans or by affecting our payroll. That’s not the mind-set we have been in at all.”

The Twins’ recent activity reflects that outlook, and a deal with Colome would only further illustrate that stance. The 32-year-old spent the past two seasons as the closer for the division-rival White Sox. In 83 1/3 innings with the South Siders, he’s pitched to a 2.27 ERA and racked up 42 saves, although the rest of his numbers don’t look as dominant. Colome’s 20.9 percent strikeout rate is below-average in today’s game, and he’s registered a rather pedestrian 3.78 FIP and 4.42 SIERA.

With the White Sox, Colome leaned aggressively on a two-pitch arsenal, throwing four-seamers and cutters exclusively — the latter nearly thrice as often as the former. In 2019, he got away with that mix despite giving up far too much hard contact, but he seemed to improve his utilization of that two-pitch mix in 2020.

Colome’s hard-hit rate fell sharply, from 41.2 percent to 32.8 percent, and only two of the balls put into play against him registered as “barreled balls,” per Statcast’s definition. Opponents’ average exit velocity against Colome plummeted from 91.3 percent in 2019 — one of the highest marks in baseball — to a lower-than-average 87.2 mph in 2020. And, despite registering one of the lowest strikeout percentages of his career last season, Colome actually posted career-high marks in swinging-strike rate and in opponents’ chase rate, which surely creates some optimism about his ability to rebound in the strikeout department.

For all the focus on the Twins’ rotation this winter, it’s the bullpen that’s a more dire area of need at the moment. The quartet of Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda and Happ gives the Twins four solid options atop the starting staff, but the bullpen has quietly been depleted. Minnesota lost Trevor May to the Mets and Matt Wisler (who was non-tendered) to the Giants. Veterans Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard, meanwhile, are both free agents and remain unsigned. Taylor Rogers is still the favorite for saves in Minnesota for now, although Colome would give manager Rocco Baldelli another ninth-inning option with some experience. The fact that Baldelli and Colome know each other well from their time together with the Rays can’t hurt the Twins’ chances at a deal.

Robinson, Simmons Discuss Mental Health Issues

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Giants outfielder Drew Robinson and Twins shortstop Andrelton Simmons revealed past mental health problems to Jeff Passan of ESPN and Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register, respectively, this week. MLBTR encourages you to read both stories in full.

Robinson, then set to enter his first season in the San Francisco organization, told Passan that he attempted suicide with a handgun last April. Still alive 20 hours later, Robinson decided he wanted to live. While Passan writes that the shot did leave Robinson’s right eye “beyond repair,” Passan explains that doctors marvel that it didn’t do even more damage. Robinson has since undergone four surgeries and received a prosthetic eye.

“It represents my new look on life,” Robinson told Passan. “Even though I have one less eye, I haven’t seen things this clear my entire life.”

Neither Robinson nor the Giants have given up on his major league career. The Giants re-signed Robinson to a minors deal during the fall, and president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told Passan, “We’re proud he’s a Giant, and we’re excited to see him compete for a job in camp.”

Simmons, previously an Angel who signed with the Twins last week, opted out of the final week of the 2020 season. He explained to Fletcher that concern over his mental health caused the decision.

“It was tough for me mentally to where the thought of suicide crossed my mind,” Simmons wrote to Fletcher. “It was something I vowed a long time ago I would never consider again. I was fortunate to talk to a therapist, which helped me let go of those thoughts. At the end when a lot of people were still going through what most would think of as tough times, the idea of finishing the season in a bubble was too much for me to handle.”

MLBTR salutes Robinson and Simmons for sharing their stories, and we wish the best to those two and all who have dealt with or are currently battling mental health problems. We also encourage those with suicidal thoughts to seek help by contacting the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 1-800-273-8255 or by texting TALK to 741741.

Latest On Twins’ Rotation Targets

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Even after signing left-hander J.A. Happ to a one-year, $8MM contract late last month, the Twins may not be done addressing their rotation. They remain in touch with one of their own free agents, right-hander Jake Odorizzi, and were in attendance for righty Jake Arrieta’s throwing session last Friday, La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reports. The Twins will stay in touch with Arrieta, according to Neal.

Odorizzi spent the previous three seasons with the Twins and combined for a 4.11 ERA/4.34 SIERA in 337 innings. In his best season, 2019, Odorizzi earned an All-Star nod and pitched to a 3.51 ERA/4.14 SIERA with a a career-best 27.1 percent strikeout rate and an 8.1 percent walk rate over 159 frames. The Twins then handed Odorizzi a $17.8MM qualifying offer, and he accepted it instead of trying his luck in free agency.

Minnesota was no doubt expecting another quality showing from Odorizzi when it gave him the QO, but it wasn’t to be in 2020. Injuries, including to his back, chest and right middle finger, limited him to 13 2/3 innings of 10-run ball. Odorizzi doesn’t seem to be a free agent at the ideal time, then, but considering his positive track record with the Royals, Rays and Twins, he could still land a solid multiyear payday this offseason. Other than the Twins, Jon Morosi of MLB.com lists the Angels, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Giants and perhaps the Mets as teams vying for the soon-to-be 31-year-old.

Either Odorizzi or Arrieta would fill out a Twins rotation that currently has Happ, Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda and Randy Dobnak comprising its top five. Of course, unlike Odorizzi, Arrieta probably isn’t in line for better than a one-year contract. While Arrieta is a former NL Cy Young winner (2015) with the Cubs, he’s now on the market after a pair of disappointing seasons with the Phillies. Arrieta, 35 in March, put up his worst ERA since 2012 last year (5.08) in 44 1/3 innings. He also logged a meager 16.8 percent strikeout percentage – one of the worst of his career – though he did record an above-average walk rate of 8.4 percent and a 51.8 percent groundball rate.

Twins Notes: Foltynewicz, Rosenthal

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  • Aside from the Mets, Foltynewicz also drew interest from the Rays, White Sox, and Twins, Heyman writes.  An All-Star with the Braves in 2018, Foltynewicz took a step back in 2019 and then pitched in only one game in 2020, resulting in his opting for free agency after being outrighted during the season.  Given these recent struggles, “Folty” would very likely have to pitch his way into a rotation spot during Spring Training, yet it is easy to see why teams would have interest in the right-hander as a change of scenery candidate.  The White Sox just re-signed Carlos Rodon, though considering Rodon has also had a tough time over the last two seasons, his presence wouldn’t necessarily rule out a potential deal between Foltynewicz and the Sox.
  • Trevor Rosenthal is the top reliever remaining on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and since the Twins are known to be looking for bullpen help, could the two sides link up?  The Athletic’s Dan Hayes isn’t very optimistic, as Rosenthal’s asking price looks to be too high for Minnesota’s liking.  The more money the Twins can save on relief pitching, the more they can then devote to a starting pitcher, but Hayes does think “they need relief certainty more than rotation certainty” at this point due to the rotation depth already on hand.

Twins Consulted Polanco, Arraez Before Signing Simmons

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  • Before signing perennial Gold Glove shortstop Andrelton Simmons, the Twins consulted with Jorge Polanco and Luis Arraez about the move, tweets the Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman. Since both Polanco and Arraez stand to be displaced from their expected roles, the Twins were wise to secure their buy-in. Still, it’s a courtesy they didn’t have to observe. Polanco has been the team’s regular shortstop for most of the past four seasons. As for Arraez, projection systems from THE BAT X to Steamer to ZiPS forecast Arraez to lead the Majors in batting average, as pointed out on the Athletic’s Rates and Barrels podcast. While it’s not the 1990’s anymore, it’s still surprising to push a potential batting champ out of a regular role. That said, we tend to overrate the starting lineup on opening day, and underrate the impact and opportunity that exists for players in “bench” roles.

Twins Sign Andrelton Simmons

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Jan 31: The Twins have officially announced the signing. The Twins now have two open spots on their 40-man roster.

Jan 26: The Twins have reached an agreement with free agent shortstop Andrelton Simmons on a one-year, $10.5MM contract, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). Per the Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman (via Twitter), the deal is done, pending a physical. The ISE Baseball client is the third shortstop and fourth infielder to come off the board in the past few hours.

The Twins step in from somewhat out-of-the-blue to sign Simmons – but not entirely. Twins GM Thad Levine flagged the potential for a move like this recently in saying that the defensive versatility of their current roster gave them options in free agency. Jorge Polanco will slide over to second base, while Luis Arraez will move around the diamond as needed, notes Passan.

Levine recently spoke of being impressed by the Dodgers’ malleability in the World Series, noting that his own roster could flex similarly, especially with manager Rocco Baldelli as a capable tactician at the wheel. If nothing else, with Simmons at short, Josh Donaldson at third, and Byron Buxton in center, the Twins boast a defense with upside enough to make a difference. Moving Polanco off short and installing Simmons in his place – on its own – has the makings of an impactful upgrade.

The four-time Gold Glove Award winner has long been considered the tastemaker with the glove at short, though ankle injuries have limited his contributions the past two seasons. His glovework was worth -1 outs above average over a 30-game sample in 2020 before he opted out, but in just 103 games the year prior, he was second among all shortstops with 12 OAA. It’s not at all a reach to suggest that Simmons is a generational talent on the defensive end.

There are more questions on the offensive side of the game. For his career, Simmons owns a slash line of .269/.317/.379 with a career 90 wRC+. The 31-year-old won’t be asked to carry the weight of the offense on a Twins’ club that has been known for its power output in recent years. Of course, two major contributors to the Bomba Squad – Eddie Rosario and Nelson Cruz – are currently free agents.*

Last season, Simmons slashed .297/.346/.356 across 127 plate appearances with a 12.6 percent strikeout rate and 6.3 percent walk rate. Simmons is one of the toughest players in the game to strikeout, though that’s in part because he’s a free swinger who doesn’t take many walks. His batter ball numbers weren’t good in 2020 – for example, zero barrels – but in such a small sample it’s tough to glean much substance.

The question Twins fans will ask is whether this signing precludes Minnesota from a reunion with designated hitter Nelson Cruz. Signing Simmons at this price point for one year could certainly be seen as a way to save money. In terms of maximizing flexibility, replacing Cruz with Simmons certainly accomplishes the task. That said, there’s an argument to be made that adding Simmons to the defense make Cruz an even better fit on the offensive end. Last we heard, however, there hasn’t been much movement on talks between the Twins and Cruz – though with this box checked, talks could just as well open up again. That figures to change, or way or another, with Simmons now in the fold. The Twins might not be done, however. Per the Athletic’s Dan Hayes (via Twitter), someone with the clubs says they have “two more moves ahead before the offseason is out.”

In terms of his value relative to the market, Minnesota nets Simmons for slightly less than we projected for him at the outset of free agency – MLBTR forecast $12MM. He lands pretty firmly between the one-year deals signed by his peers today. Marcus Semien signed for $18MM, while Freddy Galvis signed for $1.5MM. All three will now re-enter free agency next season when Trevor Story, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, and Javier Baez are also set to hit the open market.

*Rosario has since signed with the Indians.

Twins, Nelson Cruz Resume Negotiations

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Nelson Cruz and the Twins have recently restarted talks on a new contract for the slugger, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports.  Cruz had been looking for a two-year contract, but “the possibility of a one-year accord [is] now on the table” in his current discussions with Minnesota, Hayes writes.

Despite mutual interest in a continued relationship, there hasn’t been much action between Cruz and the Twins this offseason since both sides were fairly entrenched in their positions.  The team didn’t want to pay too much money and give more than one guaranteed year to a player who turns 41 in July, especially when a DH-only player like Cruz is (at the moment) limited to only American League teams.  From Cruz’s perspective, he was hopeful that his market could expand to NL teams if the universal DH was implemented, and as a result was looking for a two-year contract commensurate with his continued outstanding production.

Since there isn’t yet any movement towards the NL getting the designated hitter in 2021, that could explain why Cruz’s representatives have re-engaged with the Twins, and why there have be some flexibility from Cruz’s original two-year ask.  As Hayes notes, however, the two sides still have to “common ground on a salary,” which may not be simple since the Twins would ideally like to both re-sign Cruz and still have money left over to obtain more pitching.  Minnesota has weighed such alternate strategies as focusing all of its available payroll space on pitching and either letting its internal options handle the DH spot, or perhaps signing a cheaper alternative to Cruz — Hayes notes that Edwin Encarnacion has been considered as a possibility.

Or, in separate direction entirely, the Twins have also “floated” the idea of another free agent signing in Marcell Ozuna.  Such a move would pivot the club away from a pitching search, since Ozuna would be both pricier than Cruz and require at least a three-year contract.  Ozuna is over a decade younger than Cruz, of course, and while Ozuna might become a DH-only type in the future, Minnesota could deploy him as a part-time outfielder for at least a season or two.  It’s probably safe to assume that Ozuna is something of a Plan C for the Twins, just in case an agreement couldn’t be reached with either Cruz or any notable pitching targets.

Infield Notes: Phillies, Simmons, Wong, Tigers, Paredes

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The Phillies narrowed their focus on Andrelton Simmons before he signed with the Twins this afternoon, writes Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Didi Gregorius remains in play to return, but he may not be so keen on another one-year deal. Regardless, the Phillies prefer not to move Jean Segura back to short, notes Lauber. Even with Gregorius more-or-less the only remaining starting shortstop on the market, Segura’s presence, as well as Scott Kingery, means they don’t have to panic on an overpay. Should they ultimately strike out on Gregorius, Jonathan Villar and Hanser Alberto lurk as free agents, or the Phils could turn to the trade market to make a play for either Trevor Story of the Rockies or Javier Baez of the Cubs. Neither club has seemed particularly likely to move their star shortstop, but Phillies’ president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski might be the guy to convince them. Let’s check in on some other infield news…

  • With middle infielders flying off the shelves, Kolten Wong is seeing an uptick in interest, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). The ace defensive second baseman has seen at least preliminary interest from the Tigers, Mariners, Rays, Cubs, Phillies, and Cardinals, with whom he’s spent his entire career. Wong’s power disappeared in 2020, slashing .265/.350/.326, but he won a second consecutive Gold Glove Award and continued to be an on-base presence for the Cardinals. Wong has quietly posted 3.3 bWAR per 600 plate appearances throughout his career, and as he enters his age-30 season, he could prove one of the more impactful free agents remaining on the market.
  • The Tigers plan on experimenting with Isaac Paredes at second base, writes Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Paredes is penciled in as the Tigers’ everyday third baseman, but manager A.J. Hinch said basically that there is no harm in expanding the 21-year-old’s skill set. He’s been on fire playing winter ball, and with Jeimer Candelario having a big season in 2020 (and Spencer Torkelson on his way to claim one of the infield corners,) it’s certainly worth testing the limits of Paredes’ defensive abilities.

 

Twins GM Thad Levine Discusses Offseason

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Twins general manager Thad Levine provided some general updates on his team’s winter plans during a podcast interview with SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson (audio link).  With J.A. Happ signed to the rotation earlier this week, more additions could still be in the offing, since Levine feels “we’re starting to see things really de-congest” in the free agent market.

“We’re not done.  We still have some flexibility, we’re still having ongoing conversations, we still see many ways we can improve this team both from a qualitative standpoint and from a depth standpoint,” Levine said.

As you might expect, Levine declined to get into detail about many names, but did note that the Twins are “staying in touch” with reliever Tyler Clippard and “are in constant conversation” with Nelson Cruz’s representatives.  Interestingly, Wolfson opened the pre-interview portion of the podcast by noting that talks have been “pretty dead” between Cruz and the Twins, and it has been some time since the club presented Cruz with an offer.  As Wolfson puts it, however, “all it takes is one new call” to reignite talks, as both sides are pretty familiar with each other’s positions.  As has been the case all offseason, Cruz’s situation might not be resolved until there is firmer clarity on whether or not the National League will use the DH in 2021.

In terms of specific needs, the Twins are always interested in more arms (“If in doubt, add more pitching,” Levine said), particularly as pitchers re-adjust to throwing more innings in the wake of the abbreviated 2020 season.  Beyond pitchers, Levine is open to all possibilities on the position-player front, due to Minnesota’s versatile roster.

“When we look at the free agent market, we do not feel limited in terms of bats that we can go recruit….We do have such amazing flexibility within our team [that] you could almost recruit a player at about any position on the field and still make it work,” the GM said.

The Twins are also exploring options on the trade market, and Levine said that technically, there aren’t any so-called untouchable players on the roster — as a general principle, the organization has to be open to anything should an opportunity arise, but obviously the Twins are “less inclined” to shop or discuss certain top-tier players and prospects.  Levine also added that the Twins had received trade interest in “over 30 distinct players” within the organization over the last year, which the general manager considered a positive endorsement of Minnesota’s talent depth at both the Major League and minor league levels.

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