Twins, Byron Buxton Unable To Reach Extension
The Twins and franchise cornerstone Byron Buxton have been unable to come to terms on a contract extension, increasing the likelihood of a full-scale sell-off before Friday’s trade deadline. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes report that the Twins’ initial offer was for $73MM over seven years with an unspecified number of incentives. The Twins “increased the guarantee slightly,” but not enough to come to a long-term agreement. The final guarantee increased to $80MM, tweets The Athletic.
The end result here is not surprising, given the muddled valuation process for a talent like Buxton. When he’s at his best, he’s one of the best players in the game, a five-tool player capable of anchoring a first-division lineup on both sides of the ball from a premium position. The injury concerns, however, have limited his contributions and saddled him with a tricky long-term risk profile.
This season perfectly illustrated the dichotomy of Buxton as a team-building asset. In 27 games, he made 110 trips to the plate and accrued an insane 2.7 fWAR with a .369/.409/.767 line, good for a 217 wRC+. But 27 games of MVP-caliber production from Buxton wasn’t enough to keep the Twins anywhere near contention. They currently have a 0.0% chance to make the playoffs, per Fangraphs.
Buxton went on the injured list with a hip strain from May 7th to June 16th, by which point Minnesota’s shot at the playoffs was already slim to nil. He was back for less than a week before breaking his hand and returning to the injured list. Because he’s still out, there’s very little chance that the Twins might move Buxton now.
Instead, they’ll wait for the offseason and re-evaluate. Even just one season of a healthy Buxton ought to pique the interest of a few teams around the league who might be willing to take a chance on keeping him healthy.
The question now is whether Minnesota’s inability to lock up Buxton long-term will push them to be more aggressive in offloading assets like Jose Berrios and Taylor Rogers. Both are under team control through 2022, like Buxton. Both are key cogs in a potential contender in 2022, like Buxton.
With Nelson Cruz already gone and the rest of the present-day roster not looking much like a contender, the Twins may already doubt their chances to battle an increasingly indomitable White Sox team next season.
If Berrios ultimately gets moved in the next week, we’ll know the Twins’ thoughts about next season. If he stays, the Twins may be preparing for one final run with Berrios and Buxton under contract. Either way, it’s looking increasingly likely that Buxton’s long-term future resides somewhere other than Minnesota — where he can tantalize and frustrate a different fanbase.
AL Notes: Rogers, Bregman, Athletics, Kluber
Unsurprisingly, Twins southpaw Taylor Rogers “is very popular on the trade market,” MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets. There is enough interest that the reliever has a “good chance to be dealt” even though Minnesota is reportedly reluctant to move players who are under team control beyond this season. Rogers has one more arbitration year remaining before free agency in the 2022-23 offseason.
Rogers has somewhat quietly been one of baseball’s most effective relievers since just about the moment of his MLB debut in 2016, as the left-hander has a 3.15 ERA, 27.9% strikeout rate, and a 22% K-BB rate over 314 2/3 career innings out of Minnesota’s bullpen. He has kept up that form in 2021, with a 3.35 ERA and a whopping 35.5% strikeout rate that ranks 11th among all hurlers with at least 40 innings pitched this season. This is the type of high-level performance that could be the difference-maker in a pennant race, so while the Twins undoubtedly have a huge asking price for Rogers, another team could be willing to take the plunge to upgrade its bullpen for both the rest of this season and into 2022.
More from around the American League…
- Alex Bregman will start a Triple-A rehab assignment within the next few days, the Astros star told MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters. A left quad strain sent Bregman to the 10-day injured list on June 17, and though there was initial uncertainty around exactly how long Bregman might be out, the Astros’ series against the Twins on August 5-8 seems to look like the target date. At the time of his injury, Bregman was hitting .275/.359/.428 with seven home runs over 262 plate appearances.
- Before the Rays traded for Nelson Cruz, the Athletics gave some consideration to acquiring the slugger themselves, Shayna Rubin of the Bay Area News Group writes. The A’s seemingly didn’t get close to a move, however, due to both the financial and prospect cost attached to Cruz, and Rubin wonders if payroll concerns in particular will keep the Athletics from making any particularly big deadline splashes. While spending is always an issue for the club, money could be tighter than ever now that the A’s no longer receive revenue-sharing money — as per the last collective bargaining agreement, the Athletics were gradually phased out of the league’s revenue-sharing plan over a multi-year period. That said, Billy Beane and company have been adept at finding lower-cost help at past deadlines, such Oakland’s trade for Tommy La Stella last year.
- Corey Kluber threw a 25-pitch bullpen session on Friday, and the Yankees veteran told reporters (including ESPN’s Marly Rivera) that he is “very confident” that he’ll be able to return in 2021. Kluber was initially targeted for a late-July return at the time of his IL placement for a shoulder strain, though Yankees GM Brian Cashman later threw some doubt into Kluber’s exact timeline, saying that the right-hander might not be back until September. While Kluber certainly doesn’t look immediately close to an activation just yet, his mound work does represent progress, even if he described his 25 pitches as “easy fastballs…nothing like I would do in a regular bullpen session.”
Latest On Yankees’ Trade Targets
The Yankees are far from matching the kind of production they’ve set as their historical standard, but manager Aaron Boone‘s much-maligned unit isn’t exactly dead in the water: they’re five games over .500 and still a very reasonable 4.5 games out of the second wild card spot. Most teams in their spot would be looking for additions to make a playoff push. The Yankees, of course, have no plans of fading into the background, and they’re surely set to make a splash or two here in the final week before the trade deadline.
Trevor Story and Starling Marte continue to be two of the most talked-about names on the market, and both Story and Marte have been connected to the Yanks in recent weeks. They’ve also checked in on Max Kepler, though the Twins’ asking price is said to be “exorbitant,” per Brendan Kuty of NJ.com.
Consider Story or Marte the more likely targets, then, though they’ll face plenty of competition for either player. Both players are, however, likely to move before the deadline. The hangup will be on finding the right match of prospects to send to Colorado and Miami, respectively.
Speculatively speaking, Story would appear the more impactful addition, given how much his glove could improve the Yankees’ defense – and how much he would affect the other pieces of the roster. Sliding Gleyber Torres to second and DJ LeMahieu to first would put all the pieces in the right places, though Luke Voit would be in a position to either move to the bench or push Giancarlo Stanton to the outfield, where the Yankees are hesitant to play him. Still, there aren’t as many teams as it might seem with a hole at shortstop, and some of those teams with obvious needs to upgrade (i.e. the A’s) have been bearish on pursuing one.
Further, ESPN’s David Schoenfield suggests they might be on the lookout for bullpen help. That might be a little offputting to hear at first, as their bullpen ranks third by fWAR this season, but there’s a lot of volume built into that metric. They rank eighth overall with a 3.67 bullpen ERA. The concern, more specifically, is their recent performance. The Yanks’ pen ranks 21st with a 5.19 ERA in July. That’s not necessarily enough to cause full-on panic, but there’s always room for another arm in the bullpen.
Rays Acquire Nelson Cruz
With just over a week before the trade deadline, the Rays have made a big move in acquiring slugger Nelson Cruz from the Twins as part of a four-player swap. Cruz and minor league righty Calvin Faucher will head to Tampa, while Minnesota will pick up right-handers Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman.
With the Twins in the midst of a nightmare season, Cruz became a natural trade chip, as the 41-year-old slugger can be a free agent this winter. Cruz re-signed with Minnesota last offseason on a one-year, $13MM contract, and Cruz has roughly $4.87MM remaining in owed salary.
There was no announcement made of cash considerations being involved, so it appears as though the Rays will be taking on all of Cruz’s remaining salary. This is no small matter for a Rays team that always has an eye on the budget, and even with Cruz now in the fold, the club’s payroll is still under the $67MM threshold. Tampa Bay can (and likely will) make other moves before the July 30 deadline that could move some other dollars off the books, but as it stands, the Cruz deal is a sign that Rays ownership is willing to stretch a bit financially to bolster a team that looks like a contender to return to the World Series.
Despite Cruz’s age and seeming lack of defensive value, his bat has remained so dangerous that even some National League teams were reportedly including him in trade considerations, with an eye towards deploying Cruz in the outfield for the first time since 2018. While the Rays’ penchant for roster maximization could lead to Cruz getting at least a bit of time in the outfield, it’s a very safe bet that he’ll slot in as Tampa’s new everyday DH, bringing some big-time pop to a lineup that is solid overall but middle-of-the-pack in terms of power.
Austin Meadows had received the bulk of Tampa’s DH at-bats, though Meadows now looks to move into the outfield mix with Randy Arozarena, Kevin Kiermaier, Brandon Lowe, and (when he returns from the IL) Manuel Margot. Lowe can also be utilized at second base, and between any other injuries or even trades that might emerge, the Rays shouldn’t have much issue in finding enough playing time to keep everyone fresh and ready for another postseason push.
Cruz will suit up for the sixth different team over what has been a very impressive 17-year career. Named to his seventh All-Star team just this season, Cruz is showing no signs of slowing down, hitting .294/.370/.537 with 19 homers over 346 plate appearances in 2021. This production is actually a dropoff from the .308/.394/.626 slash line he posted over 735 PA for Minnesota in 2019-20, but “decline phase” doesn’t really seem like an applicable description.
Neither Ryan and Strotman are in the upper crust of Tampa prospects, though MLB Pipeline did have them solidly ranked (Ryan 10th, Strotman 17th) on their list of the Rays’ best minor league talents. Both are starting pitchers with solid performances at Triple-A this season, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see their make their Major League debuts before 2021 is finished. Since the Twins are looking to return to contention next year, landing two big league-ready arms will help their rotation depth, considering Michael Pineda and J.A. Happ are both free agents this winter (and either could be moved before July 30.
Ryan is 25 years old and was a seventh-round pick for the Rays in the 2018 draft. He cracked Baseball America’s top 100 list (at 98th) prior to the 2020 season, and Ryan has continued his rise up the ladder by posting a 3.63 ERA over 57 innings at Triple-A Durham this year. At all levels, Ryan has been great at missing bats (36.65% strikeout rate over 217 minor league IP) and avoiding walks (6.05% walk rate), thanks in large part to an excellent four-seamer. MLB Pipeline’s scouting report isn’t as enamored with his other pitches, but Ryan’s slider did merit a 55 grade on their 20-80 scouting scale.
The 24-year-old Strotman was a fourth-rounder in the 2017 draft, though his pro career has been limited to 179 innings thanks to the canceled 2020 minor league season and a Tommy John surgery that kept him out of action for big chunks of the 2018 and 2019 campaigns. The Rays saw enough from Strotman that they added him to their 40-man roster last winter to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, and Strotman has looked solid in posting a 3.39 ERA over 58 1/3 Triple-A innings this year. His walks have increased as he has moved up the minor league ladder, topping out at an unimpressive 13.15% walk rate at Triple-A this year. Pipeline notes that command has been a strength for Strotman in the past, however, and the right-hander’s fastball, cutter, and slider are all ranked as above-average to plus pitches.
Faucher is the other name in the deal, a 25-year-old righty who has struggled in his first taste of Double-A baseball, posting a 7.04 ERA with six homers and 24 walks in 30 2/3 innings this season. After consistently posting big strikeout numbers earlier in his minor league career and in college (at UC Irvine), the hard-throwing Faucher has continued that trend with a 27.63% strikeout rate amidst his difficulties this season.
ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link) was the first to report that the Rays were acquiring Cruz, while Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter links) was the first to report that it was a four-player deal also involving Strotman.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Draft Signings: 7/22/21
The latest on some notable Day Two draft signings. For more on the 2021 draft, check out the prospect rankings and scouting reports compiled by Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. As well, here is MLB Pipeline’s breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.
- The Twins agreed to deals with Competitive Balance Round A pick Noah Miller and second-rounder Steve Hajjar, the team announced. As the 36th overall pick, Miller had an assigned slot price of $2,045,400, and Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press (via Twitter) reports that the high school shortstop’s bonus was under slot at $1.7MM. Hajjar’s bonus hasn’t yet been reported, but the 61st overall pick has an assigned price of $1,129,700.
- The Rockies announced the signing of second-round pick Jaden Hill, with MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis reporting the LSU righty signed for the $1,689,500 slot price attached to the 44th overall pick. Also from Callis, the Rockies agreed to another at-slot deal with Ohio University southpaw Joe Rock, whose deal is worth the assigned $953,100 price for the 68th overall pick.
- The Mets signed 46th overall pick Calvin Ziegler for a $910K bonus, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports. The Canadian right-hander’s deal falls significantly below the $1,617,400 slot value, so the Mets gained some significant pool savings that were necessary for the above-slot deal in the works with tenth overall pick Kumar Rocker.
- The Brewers signed second-rounder Russell Smith for a $1MM bonus, Callis tweets. A left-hander out of TCU, Smith was the 51st overall pick, which has a slot value of $1,436,900.
- The Cubs agreed to a $2.1MM bonus with second-round pick James Triantos, according to Callis. It’s an overslot deal for Triantos, a high school third baseman from Virginia, as the 56th overall selection had an assigned price of only $1,276,400.
- The Rays reached a deal with second-rounder Kyle Manzardo, with Callis reporting that the Washington State first baseman signed for $750K. The 63rd overall pick (and the final pick of the second round proper) has a slot price of $1,076,300.
- The Astros went well over slot to sign third-rounder Tyler Whitaker, as Callis reported that the high school outfielder landed a $1.5MM bonus. That is more than double the $689,300 slot price for the 87th overall pick. Of note, Whitaker was Houston’s first pick of the 2021 draft, due to their punishment from the sign-stealing scandal.
- The Yankees also more than doubled the slot price on a third-round selection, as Callis writes that prep left-hander Brock Selvidge received $1.5MM. The 92nd overall pick has a recommended value of only $637.6K. The Yankees have now signed all their draft picks from the first 10 rounds, going underslot on eight of the 10 players.
Latest On Padres’ Trade Targets
Locked in a tight NL West race, the Padres are known to be looking for starting pitching and lineup help at the deadline. This leaves a wide range of possibilities open for an aggressive general manager like A.J. Preller, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune hears that Preller’s front office has “has talked with other teams about scenarios ranging from the seemingly obvious to the implausible.”
That gamut might be reflected in two hitters Acee links to the Padres, as he reiterates that the club continues to be interested in Joey Gallo, long mentioned as a target for San Diego. Beyond Gallo, however, Acee also notes that the Padres were one of the NL teams who had an interest in Nelson Cruz, before Minnesota sent the veteran slugger to the Rays in a trade earlier tonight. It would’ve been bold to put Cruz (a DH-only player for the last three seasons) back in line for regular outfield duty, which might be why the Twins ultimately found the most interested suitor in an AL team that could deploy Cruz in his normal DH spot.
On the pitching front, the Padres are looking for multiple arms to aid a rotation that had been hit with injuries. Acee writes that the targets are “both a potential innings eater and a starter who could be a viable option to start early in a playoff series.” The Padres’ talks with the Rangers and Twins also involved such names as Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, and Kenta Maeda. San Diego has also had interest in Rockies right-hander Jon Gray and Royals left-hander Danny Duffy, though it is unclear if Duffy is still a consideration after he was placed on the 10-day injured list earlier this week.
Gray, Duffy, and Lyles are all pure rentals, as free agents after the season. Duffy and Gray have pretty comparable overall metrics, and while Duffy’s 2.51 ERA is significantly better than Gray’s 3.68 ERA, Gray has 93 innings pitched to Duffy’s 61, as Duffy is in the midst of his second IL stint of the season. Duffy also has full no-trade protection but the California native might be open to agreeing to be dealt back to his home state. Gray has no such trade protection, though the Rockies’ willingness to move a notable player to a division rival could be a potential obstacle.
The biggest issue with acquiring Lyles is likely that the 30-year-old simply hasn’t pitched well over his two years in Texas, posting a 5.84 ERA in 165 innings since the start of the 2020 season. A change of scenery could help Lyles regain the effectiveness he displayed in 2018-19, and Lyles is a familiar face for Preller, as the righty pitched for San Diego during the 2017 and 2018 campaigns.
A trade could also help Maeda escape the doldrums of a tough 2021 season, though the right-hander far from struggled in his first year in Minnesota, finishing second in 2020 AL Cy Young Award voting. Maeda missed a little over three weeks with a groin injury this year, and has pitched better over his last three starts, with a 1.69 ERA over his last 16 innings.
Maeda is no stranger to the NL West after spending his first four MLB seasons with the Dodgers, and he also has the most contractual control of any of the five pitchers known to be on San Diego’s radar. Maeda is owed only $3MM in guaranteed money in each of the 2022 and 2023 season, but several millions more are available in incentives based on innings pitched and games started. The overall price tag is still quite reasonable, and as much as Maeda hasn’t been a front-of-the-rotation type in 2021, his contract and his past track record make him a good trade chip. Of course, this assumes that Minnesota would be open to a trade for anything more than a very generous offer, as the Twins are reportedly not very interested in dealing anything beyond rental players.
Gibson is also controlled beyond 2021, as he still has a full year remaining (worth $7MM) on the three-year, $28MM free agent deal he inked with the Rangers in the 2019-20 offseason. With a 2.86 ERA over his first 107 innings, Gibson is on pace for a career year, and he already was named an All-Star for the first time in his nine MLB seasons. Gibson doesn’t miss many bats, however, and both his Statcast profile and overall career numbers don’t much help the argument that he can keep up this borderline ace production over the course of a full season, or into 2022.
What the Padres would be willing to give up for any of these players (or any deadline target) is still up in the air. The club is close to the $210MM luxury tax threshold already but they reportedly have the ability to cross that threshold, so money might not be the most pressing issue for deadline acquisitions. In regards to moving prospects, Acee hears that the Padres aren’t willing to move any of their top four minor leaguers — presumably MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Luis Campusano, or Robert Hassell — and might even look to add some more young talent in deals, though obviously the Padres wouldn’t be “deadline sellers” by any stretch of the imagination.
Speculatively, San Diego could look into some type of complex multi-player deal that would see them acquire a package that includes at least one notable MLB player that can help them win now, as well as a minor leaguer or two. The inclusion of prospects could perhaps make it easier for the Padres to move one of their better minor leaguers as part of a trade.
Multiple NL Clubs Have Considered Nelson Cruz
It wouldn’t be deadline season without teams getting creative. Both ESPN’s Jeff Passan and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand report that at least a pair of NL clubs has explored the possibility of acquiring Twins designated hitter Nelson Cruz. Passan notes that Cruz “is game” to play the field in the event of a trade.
It’d be tough for a team to trust Cruz in the field much after he hasn’t suited up for an inning of defense since 2018. He’s only logged 54 innings with a glove since 2016. That said, Cruz is the best pure hitter on the market this summer, having slashed an excellent .294/.370/.537 with 19 home runs, 13 doubles and even a triple. He’d still be able to DH in any remaining interleague games at AL parks and could also do so during World Series play, should an acquiring team advance that far. Cruz is playing the season on a one-year, $13MM deal and would be owed about $4.54MM of that sum post-trade deadline.
Neither Passan nor Feinsand lists specific teams, but from a purely speculative standpoint, any of the Padres, Braves or Giants seem like long-shot possibilities to at least consider the idea. Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North in Minneapolis tweets that both the Braves and Dodgers had some interest last offseason, though many NL clubs spent much of the winter expecting that a universal DH would eventually be implemented.
San Diego general manager A.J. Preller has held an affinity for former Rangers players since taking the reins with the Friars, and he’s spoken of improving his lineup’s consistency this summer. Putting Cruz in an outfield corner would achieve that, albeit at the cost of a quite a bit of defense. There’s been no hard connection between the two parties, but the idea of an outside-the-box Cruz/Padres matchup has made sense for awhile now.
The Braves, meanwhile, are without Ronald Acuna Jr. and Marcell Ozuna; Cruz wouldn’t break the bank in terms of prospects and would give Atlanta a much-needed middle of the order presence. Given their rangy options elsewhere in the outfield, perhaps the Braves feel they could cover some of Cruz’s lack of range.
Over in San Francisco, the Giants have gotten just a .217/.291/.396 batting line from their left fielders in 2021. They were recently reported to be a “key” team in the Starling Marte market, but Cruz would be another rental bat who’d give the lineup some extra thump. Cruz roaming the outfield at the cavernous Oracle Park seems particularly treacherous, but it’s hard to overstate just how big an improvement he’d be over their current left-field production.
There are other possible fits, of course. The Cardinals have been struggling to find outfield production for a few years now. The Nationals are currently without Kyle Schwarber and have been looking at Josh Bell as an option in left field recently. It feels like we can never rule out the Dodgers doing anything that’s unorthodox and/or unexpected.
Really, one could make the argument that any contender or fringe contender is improved enough by Cruz’s bat to offset the defensive hit. Teams could get creative by only playing Cruz on the grass when heavy ground-ball and/or strikeout pitchers are on the mound. He could be frequently lifted for mid- or late-inning defensive replacements, and teams could experiment with four-outfielder shifts in certain favorable matchups. Cruz also has more than 8000 career innings in the outfield; at least with regard to balls hit in his general vicinity, he could be expected to make routine plays.
At the end of the day, it still seems likelier that whenever Cruz is moved, it’s to an American League club. But the Cruz-to-the-NL rumblings serve as a reminder that there are very few possibilities we should rule out entirely over the next eight days. Today’s front offices will be looking at all kinds of off-the-wall scenarios — particularly with so many teams still unsure as to how they’ll approach the trade deadline.
Alex Kirilloff To Undergo Wrist Surgery
4:48pm: Kirilloff’s recovery timetable is roughly eight weeks, tweets Helfand. He’ll go through that rehab in Fort Myers, where the Twins have their Spring Training facility and Class-A Advanced team. Kirilloff could return to Minneapolis to work out with teammates and be around the club late in the season, but the Twins believe the surgery will end the year for him.
3:50pm: Twins outfielder/first baseman Alex Kirilloff will undergo surgery to repair a torn ligament in his right wrist this week, tweets Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. He’ll be placed on the 10-day IL today, and utilityman Willians Astudillo will be recalled to the Major League roster in his place.
The wrist issue has plagued Kirilloff throughout the season. He missed two weeks back in May with what the team termed a right wrist sprain, though a sprain by definition involved stretching/tearing of the ligament to some degree. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes notes that Kirilloff has known since that time that he could continue to play through the injury if he felt well enough to do so or undergo season-ending surgery (Twitter links). It would seem the issue has become problematic enough that he’ll now opt for the latter option.
The surgery likely brings Kirilloff’s rookie campaign to an end with a .251/.299/.423 batting line, eight home runs, 11 doubles and a triple through 231 plate appearances. Given that he’s been playing through a ligament tear of some degree for the past two and a half months, it’s a solid first showing for the 23-year-old.
Kirilloff, the Twins’ first-round pick at No. 15 overall back in 2016, has long rated as one of the top offensive prospects in the minors. He’s had some injury issues in the past, most notably requiring Tommy John surgery in 2017, but Kirilloff has hit at every level since being drafted. He’s a lifetime .318/.366/.503 hitter in the minors and was regarded highly enough by the team to make his Major League debut last year during the Twins’ Wild Card playoff series against the Astros.
Moving forward, Kirilloff can be expected to hold down a place in the Twins’ everyday lineup for several years — be it as a corner outfielder or a first baseman. He and fellow first-rounder/top prospect Trevor Larnach have both held their own against big league pitching as rookies in 2021, despite the absence of a 2020 minor league season to keep them as sharp as possible. Kirilloff is controlled all the way through the 2027 season and won’t reach arbitration for another two years.
Astros Exploring Center Field, Bullpen Markets
The Astros are exploring the market for center field and bullpen help, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported over the weekend that Houston was among the teams with interest in Marlins star Starling Marte.
In addition to Marte, Houston “checked in” on the availability of Pirates center fielder Bryan Reynolds, according to Rosenthal, but it doesn’t seem he’s a particularly attainable target. As Rosenthal wrote in a separate piece earlier this week, Pittsburgh prefers to build around Reynolds rather than trade him this summer. That’s hardly surprising, since the All-Star outfielder is controllable through the end of the 2025 season.
There’s an argument to be made the Astros needn’t explore the center field market at all. While the position looked like a question mark entering the season, Houston center fielders (Myles Straw and Chas McCormick) have played well. The Astros have a cumulative .269/.344/.361 slash line at the position, resulting in a 103 wRC+ that ranks tenth leaguewide. They’ve also both rated highly defensively.
Indeed, it’s possible the Astros would only look to the top of the center field market if they were to make an acquisition. Marte and Reynolds have been among the best performers at the position this year, and Houston could explore the possibility of making an impactful add while being content leaning on Straw/McCormick if no top players come available.
That’d generally align with comments made by general manager James Click earlier this month regarding the club’s payroll outlook. The Astros narrowly stayed below the $210MM luxury tax threshold over the offseason. Click suggested the organization was free to go above the threshold this summer but didn’t seem inclined to inch above the line to accommodate marginal upgrades.
There’s a case to be made no center fielder who might be made available in the next week and a half has the potential to move the needle for a team more so than Byron Buxton. Rosenthal wonders whether the Astros might look into acquiring the Twins’ star center fielder, although there’s no indication they’ve done so to this point.
Of course, it’s not even clear Buxton will become available. Rosenthal reported last week the Twins were making a renewed effort to broker a long-term extension with Buxton but might consider a midseason trade if the parties can’t get a deal done. However, LaVelle Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes that the chances of Buxton being dealt before July 30 are “remote.” Neal hears from Twins personnel who believed the sides were making progress on an extension during Spring Training before those talks broke down. (Jeff Passan of ESPN hears differently, writing that the gap in extension talks this spring “was far too big to bridge“).
Even if the Twins and Buxton don’t work out an extension in the next week, there’s no guarantee Minnesota would make him available in a trade. The Twins can keep him in Minneapolis through 2022 via arbitration, and the club has their sights set on contention next year. Buster Olney of ESPN reported over the weekend the Twins were generally disinclined to part with players under team control beyond this season.
Obviously, the center field situation remains in a state of flux, but the relief market should be more straightforward. There are a handful of productive relievers on non-contending teams, many of whom are affordable enough for Houston to stay below the luxury line if they’re so inclined. Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimates the Astros have a little more than $3MM in breathing room before hitting the threshold. Paul Fry and Cole Sulser (Orioles), Scott Barlow (Royals), José Cisnero and Gregory Soto (Tigers), Ian Kennedy (Rangers), Dylan Floro and Richard Bleier (Marlins), Ryan Tepera (Cubs), Richard Rodríguez and Chris Stratton (Pirates) and Daniel Bard (Rockies) are among the many quality relievers due less than that amount for the remainder of the season.
Latest On Yankees’ Search For Outfield Help
The Yankees’ recent pair of wins against the division-leading Red Sox helped to keep their postseason hopes alive, and the New York Post’s Joel Sherman writes that they’re looking for adding outfield help as the trade deadline approaches. Specifically, the Yankees would like to acquire someone who can handle center field.
Center field is an obvious, glaring need in the Bronx. Yankees center fielders are hitting just .183/.290/.309 on the season, and the resulting 70 wRC+ ranks 29th among the 30 MLB clubs. Aaron Hicks is out for the season after undergoing surgery to repair a torn tendon sheath in his wrist, and the subsequent cast of replacements hasn’t picked up the slack.
New York was already reported to have shown interest in Marlins center fielder Starling Marte, who is likely to be traded now that Miami’s hopes of getting him to sign an extension have been dashed. (Given the reported three years and roughly $30MM term, that should come as no surprise.) Sherman again connects the Yankees to Joey Gallo, who has some center field experience, and he adds that they’ve “wondered” about Minnesota’s Max Kepler — another strong defensive right fielder who has some experience playing center.
Marte would represent a pure rental for the Yankees — albeit an excellent one. He’s slashed at a .288/.389/.457 clip so far in 2021 while clubbing seven home runs and swiping 19 bases along the way. He’s owed about $5MM of this year’s $12.5MM salary between now and season’s end, although by the deadline, that sum would dip to about $4.37MM.
From a luxury tax standpoint, Marte is in the final year of a contract that wound up paying him $51MM over an eight-year term — an annual rate of $6.375MM. Prorating that luxury hit for the remainder of the season would mean about $2.22MM at the deadline or about $2.57MM as of today. Sherman notes that the Yankees have “about” $3MM in luxury breathing room — Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez has them around $3.5MM shy of the threshold — so Marte could technically fit into the budget without taking the Yankees over the line.
Both Gallo and Kepler are imperfect fits. Gallo is the far likelier of the two to be traded and, at $6.2MM in 2021, is a near-match with Marte in terms of luxury calculations. He’d give the Yankees a much-needed left-handed bat (unlike Marte), but he’s a better defender in right field and will likely have one of the higher asking prices among viable trade chips in the coming weeks. Gallo would add another three-true-outcome type of hitter to a Yankees lineup that leads MLB in walk rate and ranks ninth in homers and strikeout rate. Gallo is controlled via arbitration through the 2022 season.
Kepler, 28, is in the third season of a five-year, $35MM contract. He’s owed about $2.62MM through season’s end and is still owed $6.75MM in 2022 and $8.5MM in 2023. There’s a $10MM option with a $1MM buyout for the 2024 season.
Kepler missed a month with a hamstring injury earlier in the year and is batting just .207/.296/.427 in 243 plate appearances on the year. Kepler looked to be emerging from that slump with a hot few weeks after returning from the injured list in June, but he’s fallen back into an 0-for-15 skid at the plate. At his best, Kepler is an impact defender with a strong walk rate and plenty of power, as evidenced by his .252/.336/.519, 36-homer season back in 2019. The Twins probably don’t love the idea of selling low on him, and the Yankees may not want to roll the dice on a rebound for a currently struggling player anyhow.
If anything, the mention of Kepler is interesting for the fact that it illustrates the wide net being cast by the Yankees in their search. Out-of-the-box candidates figure to emerge — particularly if the team plans to remain below the luxury threshold. Owner Hal Steinbrenner recently voiced a willingness to cross that barrier, but the Yankees’ offseason moves were all made with the idea of avoiding the tax.