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Big Hype Prospects: Rojas, Walker, Pages, Lavigne, Kjerstad

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Big Hype Prospects remains focused on the Arizona Fall League. Let’s dig in.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Johan Rojas, 22, OF, PHI (AA)
AFL: 44 PA, 10 SB, .297/.386/.378

Rojas is one of the prospects I’m most closely tracking this fall. He’s Rule 5 eligible this winter, though there’s little chance the Phillies would risk exposing him to the draft. With his elite defense and double-plus speed, at least 20 teams could easily hide him on their roster for a full season. His development could affect how the Phillies approach the free agent and trade markets in the coming winters as they transition away from their long-standing reputation as a poor fielding franchise.

The early results in Arizona are a mixed bag. He does have a solid triple-slash and three doubles, though he’s yet to muscle up for a home run. Only Zac Veen (13) has more stolen bases. Rojas and Veen are also the only players to feature a three-steal game. Rojas did it by nabbing each bag once. You can find a video of his thefts of third and home via Jacob Resnick of MLB.com (scroll down). It sure looked to me (Twitter link) that the pitcher was a tad insulted by the steal of home.

Encouragingly, Rojas has five walks (11.4% BB%) and six strikeouts (13.6% K%) in his 44 plate appearances. The two areas of his game that need the most work are in-game power and plate discipline.

Jordan Walker, 20, 3B, STL (AA)
AFL: 47 PA, 2 HR, 1 SB, .300/.362/.525

Although nobody should be upset with the above stat line, Walker ranks just 25th out of 62 qualified hitters by OPS. Nevertheless, he’s putting on an impressive display on both sides of the ball that has only served to highlight his physical readiness. Like Rojas, Walker’s development has major implications for the Cardinals mid-range plans. It’s long been rumored that Nolan Arenado will not opt out of his contract. Walker, however, is a talented defender who has been measured brushing triple-digit velocities on throws across the diamond. He also features Major League caliber exit velocities – he regularly exceeds 100-mph with his batted balls. All this from a 20-year-old who has all the makings of a franchise cornerstone. If Arenado does remain in St. Louis, they’ll have tough decisions to make soon – perhaps as early as next spring.

Andy Pages, 21, OF, LAD (AA)
AFL: 43 PA, 3 HR, .278/.372/.556

A consistent power-hitting prospect, Pages is coming off a solid showing at Double-A. Barring a change in approach, he’s destined to be a low-average, high-ISO slugger. As a hitter, comparisons to vintage Rhys Hoskins are almost unavoidable (Hoskins adjusted his batted ball profile this season). Pages puts more than half of his batted balls in the air, has plus discipline, and features more than enough raw power to casually blast more than 30 home runs per full season. My home run calculator projects a range of 28 home runs (at a 15% HR/FB ratio) to 47 home runs (25% HR/FB ratio) per 600 plate appearances. Presently, he plays center field, though there are questions about his ability to stick there. Some scouts believe he’ll slow considerably as he ages.

Grant Lavigne, 23, 1B, COL (AA)
AFL: 42 PA, 1 SB, .389/.476/.611

Once considered an interesting prospect with upside, Lavigne has fallen off lists in recent years amidst unimpressive results. This season, he posted a 146 wRC+ as a slightly old High-A player before turning in a 102 wRC+ in Double-A. He’s a first-base-only prospect so his lack of power – 10 home runs in 524 plate appearances – could be a fatal blow to his prospectdom. However, he has excellent plate discipline and a batted-ball approach that could outperform expectations at Coors Field. When I squint, I see him as sort of similar to a more patient and whiff-prone version of Eric Hosmer. Although he’s yet to homer this fall, Lavigne leads the league with six doubles. Lavigne is Rule 5 eligible this winter and might be left exposed.

Heston Kjerstad, 23, OF, BAL (AA)
AFL: 57 PA, 4 HR, .352/.386/.648

Kjerstad leads the league with 19 hits and is tied with Matt Mervis for the home run lead. He also has four doubles. The other hit leaders have taken a slappier approach, featuring minimal extra-base contact. As we profiled last week, Kjerstad lost most of two seasons due to COVID shutdowns and heart inflammation.

In less positive news, his 16 strikeouts are second-worst in the AFL, behind only Rece Hinds. Whiffs figure to remain an unavoidable part of Kjerstad’s game. So long as he’s achieving game power – as he is this fall – he remains a promising but volatile prospect.

Five More

Lawrence Butler, OAK (22): A slow-burn prospect who has hit at every level up through High-A, Butler has the fourth-best OPS in the AFL. A patient slugger who has always struggled with strikeouts, he tallied 10 walks and only seven strikeouts through 42 plate appearances. As a left-handed hitter, he has an easier path to relevance than other players with a similar toolset like Peyton Burdick. Butler should spend 2023 in Double-A. He’s being evaluated for a 40-man roster spot since he’s Rule 5 eligible.

Yasel Antuna, WSH (22): Antuna will turn 23 next Wednesday. A former top international prospect, his development has been slower and less impressive than originally hoped. His plate discipline is his standout trait, and it’s been on full display in Arizona where he has seven walks and one strikeout in 23 plate appearances. There are rumors his discipline is actually passivity. A dose of targeted aggression could unlock better power outcomes.

T.J. Rumfield, NYY (22): Acquired from the Phillies in exchange for Nick Nelson, Rumfield is an intriguing first base prospect who missed considerable development time – both in college and post-draft. When he’s been on the field, he’s demonstrated superb plate discipline. He puts on power displays in batting practice, though this has yet to translate in-game. He currently leads the AFL with a 1.236 OPS in 38 plate appearances.

Austin Martin, MIN (23): Martin is next-best with a 1.168 OPS in 48 plate appearances. It’s a BABIP-driven batting line – only three of his 18 hits have gone for extra bases. An important component of the Jose Berrios trade, Martin has intriguing discipline and contact skills. In his present form, he profiles as a most-days super utility guy. There’s risk higher-level pitchers will overpower him.

Edouard Julien, MIN (23): Another future Twins utility guy, Julien features pristine plate discipline that can verge into passivity at times. His pickiness results in an elevated strikeout rate despite above-average contact skills. He’s also never posted below a 19.3 percent walk rate. For comparison, among qualified Major Leaguers, only Juan Soto (20.3% BB%) exceeded a 16 percent walk rate this season. Julien isn’t on par with Soto, but he does have a well-rounded skill set and… surprise, surprise, he leads the AFL with 13 walks (30.9% BB%) and 10 strikeouts (23.8% K%) in 42 plate appearances.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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After a deep rebuild that featured last-place finishes in each of the past four full seasons, the Orioles showed signs of optimism in 2022. Many of their prospects reached the majors and played well, allowing the club to flirt with postseason contention and finish above .500 for the first time since 2016. GM Mike Elias has teased that the coming offseason will involve a higher payroll, but just how aggressive will they be?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • John Means, LHP: $2.975MM through 2023 (arbitration-eligible for one year thereafter)

Option Decisions

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Orioles have consistently been one of the worst teams in baseball in recent years, with few people expecting anything different going into 2022. But many of the club’s young players either made strong debuts or took steps forward, leading the team to a respectable season for the first time in recent memory. They stayed in the Wild Card race until the final week of the season and actually finished with a winning record for the first time since 2016.

What that means going forward is an open question that will be answered in the months to come. General manager Mike Elias was hired after the 2018 season, meaning we have no template for what it looks like when he decides to be aggressive. The club hasn’t given a multi-year contract to a free agent since Alex Cobb’s four-year deal in March 2018, before Elias was hired.

Back in August, Elias said that the O’s will “significantly escalate the payroll,” though he could mean different things by that. The highest Opening Day payroll the Orioles have ever had was the $164MM of 2017, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, though it’s been steadily declining since then. This year’s mark was just under $44MM, the lowest in the league. It would be possible for the payroll to escalate “significantly” while still remaining low compared to the other 29 clubs. But if they want to be truly aggressive, there’s little standing in their way. They have no long-term commitments whatsoever, with Means the only player on the books for 2023 and literally no one guaranteed for 2024.

If they do decide to make a sizeable commitment to a free agent, it would make the most sense for it to be a pitcher since the position player core is in decent shape. Behind the plate, Adley Rutschman made good on his top prospect status with an excellent rookie season. In 113 games, he hit .254/.362/.445 for a wRC+ of 133, indicating he was 33% better than the league average hitter. That would be impressive work for any batter, but it’s especially impressive for a catcher, and a rookie at that. He also got good grades from defensive metrics, allowing him to produce 5.3 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs and cementing himself as the catcher of the future.

A Spring Training injury delayed his debut until May, meaning he’s currently short of one year of MLB service time. However, there’s a provision in the new collective bargaining agreement that gives a full year of service to the top two finishers in Rookie of the Year voting. Rutschman will most likely finish second behind Julio Rodríguez, meaning he would have five years of club control remaining before hitting the six-year mark. That should keep Rutschman in Baltimore through at least 2027, though an extension could always lengthen the relationship and would be one way of spending aggressively.

With Rutschman entrenched for years to come, the O’s will only have to think about a backup and depth options. Robinson Chirinos got into 67 games in 2022 but is headed to free agency. In terms of in-house options, they added Anthony Bemboom to the 40-man roster just a few weeks ago to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency. Then there are waiver claims Cam Gallagher, Mark Kolozsvary and Aramis Garcia. If the O’s want to supplement that group, they’d be a candidate for a veteran signing, such as bringing back Chirinos or someone like Sandy León, though they could also ride with the many options they already have.

At first base, the club traded away Trey Mancini at the deadline, leaving the position in the hands of Ryan Mountcastle. His power took a step back this year, hitting just 22 home runs compared to 33 last year. Some of that is surely due to the club pushing back the left field wall, though Mountcastle was still above-average at the plate overall. His .250/.305/.423 batting line this year adds up to a wRC+ of 106, or 6% above league average. That’s fairly middle-of-the-pack production from the first base slot, meaning it’s a theoretical area they could look to upgrade. However, Mountcastle is still young, turning 26 in February, and has yet to reach arbitration eligibility. He’ll likely get some time to find another gear. Jesús Aguilar, who was with the club for September and October, is reaching free agency, meaning there’s room for a backup/bench bat. Re-signing Aguilar would make some sense, though guys like Colin Moran will also be available.

The rest of the infield has some fluidity to it, thanks to the versatility of Gunnar Henderson. The club’s other top prospect, he debuted later in the season and hit .259/.348/.440 for a wRC+ of 125 in 34 games. He primarily lined up at third base in that time, though also saw some action at shortstop and second base. Jorge Mateo was the club’s primary shortstop this year, hitting at a below-average rate but still proving to be plenty useful due to his speed and defense. His .221/.267/.379 batting line only amounted to an 82 wRC+, but he also stole 35 bases and was unanimously praised by advanced defensive metrics. With Rougned Odor reaching free agency, second base is up for grabs, though there are internal options. Ramón Urías hit .248/.305/.414 for a wRC+ of 104 while playing second, third and short. Terrin Vavra spent some time at the keystone but also in the outfield.

Many people have opined that the O’s should target one of the big four free agent shortstops this winter (Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson), given their lack of payroll commitments and ability to shuffle their current infielders around. While that level of aggressiveness would certainly be exciting, there are reasons to suspect they will dedicate their resources elsewhere. Joseph Ortiz, Coby Mayo and Jackson Holliday are all infielders and considered to be among the top 100 prospects in the game by FanGraphs, while Baseball America has Holliday and Jordan Westburg on their list. Holliday is just 18 and still years away from the majors, but Ortiz and Westburg both reached Triple-A in 2022, with Mayo getting as high as Double-A. The O’s might want a path available for these players to force their way into the big league picture throughout 2023.

The outfield also saw a prospect debut this year, as Kyle Stowers came up and hit .253/.306/.418 for a wRC+ of 107 in 34 games. He should slot next to Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays as the club’s regular outfield mix. Anthony Santander will also be around, though he has the least defensive acumen of the group and could potentially see significant time as the designated hitter. Just like on the infield, there are future reinforcements coming on the grass. Colton Cowser is considered to be one of the top 100 prospects in the sport by each of FanGraphs, Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. He got as high as Triple-A in 2022 and will likely make his MLB debut in 2023.

With lots of depth on the position player side of things, the O’s should have plenty of opportunities on the trade market. Perhaps they believe in Cowser enough to explore a trade of Hays, opening up the outfield picture a bit. With a bevy of infield prospects on the way, maybe they feel they can make a move there. Trading away someone at the big league level like Mateo or Urías is a possibility. But they could also trade away one of their many prospects for immediate help.

Turning to the pitching staff, there’s less certainty. Seven different pitchers got into double digits in terms of games started, with a mixed bag of results. Austin Voth and Dean Kremer were the only two of the group to post ERAs under 4.00 while with Baltimore. In both cases, advanced metrics are skeptical of the results, with low BABIPs and high strand rates helping them to minimize the damage. Jordan Lyles, Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish and Spenser Watkins were each between 4.00 and 5.00 in the ERA department, with none of them getting strikeouts at an above-average rate. Bruce Zimmermann’s ERA came in at 5.99. Some of these guys are still young and getting their feet wet, which means they will continue to get chances going forward. But none of them were so strong in 2022 that they should be guaranteed a rotation spot at this point. There should be plenty of room for free agent additions here, even with top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez on the cusp of entering the picture. John Means should be a factor at some point in 2023, but it will depend on how he recovers from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in April of this year.

The types of free agents that they target will depend on exactly how significant the payroll increase will actually be. The top of the market will feature aces like Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodón. It would certainly be surprising to see the O’s shopping in that aisle, though there’s no real reason they couldn’t do it. If they aren’t willing to be quite that aggressive, they could look to Kodai Senga, Tyler Anderson, Chris Bassitt, Mike Clevinger and Nathan Eovaldi as solid middle-of-the-rotation options. If they decide to stick with one-year deals, they will likely be looking at guys like Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy, Zach Davies and others of that ilk. It could go in many different ways, but the O’s have virtually no payroll commitments and plenty of room in the rotation. The big question will be how bold they want to be.

Turning to the bullpen, this was a strength for the O’s this season. The club’s relievers posted a collective 3.49 ERA this year, ninth-best among MLB teams, even though they traded Jorge López to the Twins at the deadline. Félix Bautista, Cionel Pérez and Bryan Baker were some of the relievers to show promising results. However, reliever performance is notoriously volatile and the O’s don’t really have a veteran presence in the ’pen. Dillon Tate, who turns 29 in May and has just over three years of service time, is the old hand of the crew. It would be plenty sensible for the club to add a guy who’s been around for a bit, both for on-field performance and for mentoring capabilities. Players like Chris Martin, Adam Ottavino or Tommy Kahnle shouldn’t cost too much but would fit nicely, though there’s also nothing really stopping the O’s from splurging on Edwin Díaz or Kenley Jansen.

Ultimately, the O’s are a grand unknown until we see what Elias has in mind. Since taking over, he’s been extremely conservative with spending on the big league roster, avoiding all multi-year deals while focusing on acquiring and developing prospects. It seems like now is a good time to make a shift and start focusing on the major league level, but we don’t have a barometer for what that will look like. They still have many exciting prospects on the way, meaning they could continue with modest deals while waiting for the farm to continue producing, or they could use that prospect stockpile for a bold trade. But with a wide open future payroll and plenty of young talent, the O’s could be big players in free agency or the trade market or both, if they want to be.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held an Orioles-centric chat on 10-21-22. Click here to view a transcript of that discussion.

Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

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It’s never a good sign when one offseason’s big need is still the biggest need next winter, as the Marlins continue to look for quality hitters.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Sandy Alcantara, SP: $51MM through 2026 (includes $2MM buyout of $21MM club option for 2027)
  • Avisail Garcia, OF: $41MM through 2025 (includes $5MM buyout of $12MM club option for 2026)
  • Jorge Soler, OF: $24MM through 2024 (Soler has opt-out clauses after both the 2022 and 2023 seasons)
  • Miguel Rojas, SS: $4.5MM through 2023
  • Richard Bleier, RP: $3.75MM through 2023 (includes $250K buyout of $3.75MM club option for 2024)

Total 2023 commitments: $41.8MM
Total future commitments: $125.95MM

Option Decisions

  • Joey Wendle, IF: $6.3MM mutual option for 2023, $75K buyout if Marlins decline (Wendle is still under arbitration control)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Other Financial Commitments

  • $30MM owed to the Yankees as part of the Giancarlo Stanton trade (money to be paid out in 2026-28)

Free Agents

  • None

Derek Jeter’s surprise departure as the Marlins’ CEO back in February ended up being a bad omen for the team’s season, as Miami stayed on the outskirts of the playoff race until July, before struggling to a 69-93 record and fourth place in the NL East.  Along the way, some other front office personnel (largely Jeter’s hires) also left the organization, and news broke at the end of the season that Don Mattingly wouldn’t be returning for an eighth year as the manager.

The search for Mattingly’s replacement is ongoing, with such names as Astros bench coach Joe Espada and Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol cited as two of an unknown number of candidates.  It remains to be seen what direction Miami’s search might take, though Espada or Grifol would both present a fresh voice from outside the organization, which might be just what the Marlins need to help get things on track.

In fairness to Mattingly, however, he was far from the root problem with the club, as the Marlins again had one of the league’s worst offenses.  Miami’s team batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, home runs, runs scored, and RBI total were all lower in 2022 than in 2021, despite how the Fish tried to upgrade their lineup last winter.  Unfortunately for the Marlins, Avisail Garcia, Jorge Soler, Joey Wendle, and Jacob Stallings all hit poorly, with Soler (98 wRC+) the only one even close to league-average offensive production.  With Garcia and Stallings delivering negative-fWAR production, the quartet combined for only 0.6 fWAR, with that number further impacted by Garcia, Soler, and Wendle all missing significant time on the injured list.

Injuries were a problem in general for Miami, most notably the stress fracture in Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s back that ended up halting the second baseman’s season on June 28.  Chisholm was playing some excellent baseball at the time of his injury, hitting .254/.325/.535 with 14 homers over 241 plate appearances.  Though he already has a pretty lengthy injury history during his short MLB career, Chisholm will return as the centerpiece of Miami’s lineup in 2023, and is one of only a few Marlins seemingly assured of a spot on the team.

Beyond Chisholm at second base, Garcia looks to be the regular right fielder and Soler will get time as both a left fielder and DH.  The Marlins can only hope that Garcia and Soler can bounce back next year, as neither player is a realistic trade candidate (barring a swap for another team’s undesirable contract) in the wake of their poor seasons.  Soler can opt out of the remaining two years of his contract, but there’s no chance he’ll walk away from his remaining $24MM owed this offseason, as he wouldn’t be able to match that salary on the open market.

It also doesn’t look like Stallings is going anywhere, as it seems probable that Stallings and Nick Fortes will be the primary catching duo.  Fortes’ .230/.304/.392 slash line over 240 PA wasn’t extraordinary, but it was still markedly better than Stallings’ production, so the Marlins might end up deploying more of a timeshare behind the plate than a strict starter/backup situation.

2022 was such a rough year both offensively and defensively for Stallings that it’s easy to forget he was a sought-after trade chip at this time last year, and the Marlins had to surrender a notable package of three young players to acquire him from the Pirates in November.  It would take even more of a trade haul to land, say, Sean Murphy from the A’s or any of Alejandro Kirk/Gabriel Moreno/Danny Jansen away from the Blue Jays this winter, so another splashy deal might not be in the works if the Marlins do want a catching upgrade.  Free agent Willson Contreras would seem to be out of their price range, but someone like Gary Sanchez might be feasible, or perhaps an Omar Narvaez or Mike Zunino if the Marlins wanted to take a shot on catchers who have been good hitters in the past but are coming off poor seasons.

Catcher is one of many positions that are in a state of flux for the Marlins.  While the team has pretty much the entire 2022 position-player core under team control for 2023, most of those options simply weren’t good enough last year, and the Marlins may just be ready to move on from some players who have been in the organization for some time.

It’s possible that general manager Kim Ng might approach this group as a collective backup plan.  Any of Stallings, Fortes, Garrett Cooper, Miguel Rojas, Brian Anderson, or even youngsters Bryan De La Cruz or Jesus Sanchez could feasibly be in Miami’s Opening Day lineup….or on another team’s roster via trade, should Ng find a quality upgrade at any of these positions who brings better speed or contact.  While the Marlins aren’t going to unload this entire group, it also doesn’t seem likely that all of the aforementioned seven players will still be in Miami next season.

De La Cruz and Sanchez are the most likely to return, given their youth, years of team control, and the lack of certainty over Soler and Garcia in the outfield.  Center field also isn’t an easy position to fill, so since Sanchez can at least play passable defense at the position, the Marlins may be inclined to give him another shot at establishing himself at the MLB level.

Having both Wendle and versatile speedster Jon Berti gives Ng some flexibility in how she addresses the position player side of the roster, even if Wendle and Berti might both be best suited for super-sub roles than as true everyday players.  The Marlins will decline their end of Wendle’s mutual option, yet the utilityman would still be arbitration-eligible through 2023 and will likely again be part of the infield picture despite his struggles last year.  If the Fish did want to move on from Wendle, youngsters Jordan Groshans or Charles Leblanc could take on bigger roles in the infield mix.

Cooper, Rojas, and Anderson are all free agents after the 2023 season, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Fish non-tender Anderson this winter after two consecutive injury-plagued and non-productive seasons.  This could make third base a particular target area, if the Marlins wanted to go beyond a Wendle/Berti/Groshans fallback plan.

Rojas has been a team leader for years, and was still an excellent defensive shortstop despite playing with a significant wrist injury for over two months.  It should be noted the Marlins were at least open to the idea of dealing the shortstop last summer since Rojas’ name was floated in trade talks with the Yankees, but since shortstop is a harder position to fill, Miami might just count on Rojas regaining some hitting stroke once healthy.

Cooper has also been a speculated name in trade rumors in the past, yet his checkered injury history likely played some role in why he has remained with the Marlins.  It could be that the first baseman again stays put just because the Marlins need hitting, and Cooper has been a pretty consistent bat when healthy — he was even an All-Star in 2022 before being waylaid by injuries and a lengthy slump in the second half.  With Lewin Diaz reportedly no longer seen as a viable regular, retaining Cooper might be the easiest way for Miami to address first base.

Gauging the size of the Marlins’ overhaul will also depend on how much Ng has to spend this winter.  Owner Bruce Sherman bumped the payroll from around $57MM in 2021 to just under $80MM in Opening Day payroll in 2022, though this increase was rather modest (perhaps too modest for Jeter’s liking, according to some reports) and still left the Marlins among the sport’s lowest spenders.  Sherman is apparently willing to boost the payroll a little more this winter, though the size of that increase isn’t known, and it’s probably safe to assume that Miami isn’t suddenly going to be making nine-figure contract bids.

If the Garcia/Soler signings have made ownership wary of free-agent spending, that again leaves the trade market as perhaps Miami’s best route for significant roster help.  Since the Fish still possess one of baseball’s more enviable collections of young pitchers, Miami is reportedly open to discussing anyone besides Sandy Alcantara or top prospect Eury Perez.

It is safe to assume that the Marlins would prefer to deal more unproven arms than, say, frequent trade target Pablo Lopez, even if Lopez would bring back a nice return.  Selling high on Edward Cabrera or Jesus Luzardo might be more feasible, as both pitchers have a lot of talent but have also already had injury problems early in their careers.  Moving either Trevor Rogers or Elieser Hernandez would be more of a sell-low, but Rogers in particular still has trade value despite a rough 2022 performance.

There is a bottom to this pitching depth, as the Marlins aren’t going to start offloading too many arms that are ticketed for spots in their own rotation.  The “you can never have too much pitching” mantra also applies, considering that Miami’s depth took some injury hits with Max Meyer’s Tommy John surgery and Sixto Sanchez’s ongoing shoulder troubles.  In general, however, Ng has plenty of options to weigh in considering pitching trades, as Miami’s variety of arms could bring back anything from All-Star caliber bats to more building blocks for the future.

It also helps to have an ace like Alcantara on hand as the rotation’s stabilizing force.  The right-hander was the Marlins’ other big expenditure of the 2021-22 offseason, as Miami inked Alcantara to a five-year, $56MM extension that covered his three arbitration-eligible years and at least his first two free agent years.  Alcantara responded to his security by delivering the best season of his career, posting a 2.28 ERA over a league-high 228 2/3 innings.

Extensions probably don’t figure to be a big part of Miami’s offseason business until the later stages of Spring Training, though it is possible the Fish could try to lock up Lopez if he isn’t dealt.  Extending Chisholm is another possibility, yet the Marlins might prefer to see the second baseman get at least one healthy year on his record before making a long-term commitment.

While the Marlins got good results from their rotation last year, the bullpen was much more inconsistent.  Major additions might not be in the offing, however, due to cost, the number of young starters in the system who could be eased into the majors via bullpen work, and because the Marlins could just count on some injured arms having healthier years.  Dylan Floro is the incumbent favorite for the closer’s job, as Tanner Scott held the job for much of 2022 but had too much trouble avoiding walks.

With the Braves, Mets, and Phillies all still looking like contenders, it will be tough for Miami to make a lot of headway in the NL East.  The Marlins’ pitching corps will always give them a chance, and getting even closer to league-average hitting might help the club make some noise next year.  With this in mind, expect the Marlins to be one of the league leaders in trade speculation this winter, linked to any number of notable bats on the rumor mill.  More clarity on the payroll situation would also help, as the ability to add even a Soler-sized contract would help expand the options available to the front office.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals are fresh off a fourth straight postseason appearance, but they’ve failed to advance to a Division Series in each of the last three years. They’ll presumably try to run things back with as much continuity as possible given their regular season success, but they’ll do so without two franchise icons who had long ago announced that 2022 would be their final seasons.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Nolan Arenado, 3B: $144MM through 2027 (Arenado can opt out this offseason; Rockies owe Cardinals $16MM in 2023 regardless of Arenado’s decision, Colorado would owe an additional $5MM annually through 2025 if he declines to opt out)
  • Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $52MM through 2024
  • Steven Matz, LHP: $35.5MM through 2025
  • Miles Mikolas, RHP: $17MM through 2023
  • Paul DeJong, SS: $11MM through 2023 (including buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Giovanny Gallegos, RHP: $11MM through 2024 (including buyout of 2025 club option)
  • Drew VerHagen, RHP: $3MM

Total 2023 commitments: $84.5MM if Arenado doesn’t opt out, $54.5MM if Arenado opts out (factoring in Rockies’ payments)
Total future commitments: $242.5MM if Arenado doesn’t opt out, $113.5MM if Arenado opts out

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis, projections via Matt Swartz)

Total arbitration projections: $39.85MM

Non-tender candidates: Stratton, Reyes, Hudson, Cabrera

Free Agents

The Cardinals outlasted the Brewers with an excellent second half, claiming an NL Central title after two straight Wild Card berths. St. Louis’ 93 wins weren’t enough to secure a first-round bye in the new playoff format, however, leaving the Cards to match up against the Phillies in a three-game Wild Card set. Philadelphia came back from a ninth-inning deficit in Game One and went on to sweep the series, starting the St. Louis offseason earlier than the organization had hoped.

The Cardinals have had a string of early playoff exits in recent years, but they’ve continuously been one of the game’s most successful regular season teams. They’ve earned four straight playoff berths and haven’t had a below-average record in 15 years. It’s a remarkable run of consistency, anchored by one of the longer-tenured front office regimes and a few iconic presences on the roster. The front office tandem of president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and general manager Mike Girsch will be back, with Girsch inking a multi-year extension last week and Mozeliak already under contract. Yet the Cards will have to turn the page from Yadier Molina and, after a surprising resurgent return season in St. Louis that saw him eclipse 700 career home runs, Albert Pujols.

Molina and Pujols announced before the 2022 season even began that it’d be their final runs. Adam Wainwright has made no such declaration, playing things much closer to the vest. The 41-year-old has been a fixture on the St. Louis roster for nearly two decades. He’s a free agent again, and while it’s impossible to envision him playing anywhere else, Wainwright has yet to declare whether he plans to continue pitching. If he wants to return, there’s no question the Cards would carve out a rotation spot yet again. He’s coming off another successful year, posting a 3.71 ERA over 191 2/3 innings. He and the Redbirds agreed to a $17.5MM extension last offseason, and it’s easy to envision another one-year deal in that range.

Wainwright told reporters after the season we’d “know pretty soon” whether he was returning, teasing that he was already aware of his decision (link via Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch). That doesn’t seem likely to drag too deep into the offseason, while the Cardinals biggest question has to be made within five days of the conclusion of the World Series. Nolan Arenado is coming off arguably the best season of his career, one which should see him compete with corner infield mate Paul Goldschmidt for MVP support. He’ll have the opportunity to opt out of the final five years and $144MM on his contract at the start of the offseason.

Arenado forewent an opt-out chance last year, telling Goold it “was always the plan” to stay in St. Louis long-term at that time. The seven-time All-Star was coming off a relative down season in 2021, however, and it wasn’t clear he’d have topped the six years and $179MM remaining on his deal at that point. After this year’s incredible showing on both sides of the ball, he’d certainly beat $144MM as a free agent if his main priority were to maximize his earnings. Freddie Freeman received a six-year, $162MM deal (albeit with deferrals that knocked down its net present value) heading into his age-32 season coming off a less impressive platform year. Arenado would figure to top that mark were he a free agent.

The nine-time Gold Glover hasn’t tipped his hand this time around, but he’s consistently maintained his love for both St. Louis and the Cardinals organization. After the Cards were eliminated, he reiterated to reporters he’s “really loved it here” and added “hopefully we can figure (the contract) out” (via Brenden Schaeffer of KMOV).

It’s certainly possible Arenado decides not to pursue his greatest earning potential and sticks with an organization with which he’s clearly happy. That could take the form of just opting in to his existing deal or maybe a preemptive contract restructure. Arenado is slated to make just $15MM in the final season of his current deal. If St. Louis agreed to make his 2027 salary more commensurate with the $32.25MM average annual value of the deal’s next four years, perhaps that’d strike a balance between rewarding his excellent season while preserving continuity.

The Cardinals have plenty of breathing room financially to rework Arenado’s deal if necessary. According to the Associated Press, the Rockies will owe the Cards $16MM next season regardless of Arenado’s opt-out decision, as agreed upon in the 2021 trade that sent him to St. Louis. Colorado would send an additional $5MM annually through 2025 if Arenado declines to opt out. With the Rox on the hook for such a notable portion of next year’s salary, the Cardinals would only have roughly $54.5MM in guaranteed commitments (subtracting the money they’d receive from Colorado) if Arenado opts out.

They’re likely to allocate another $35-40MM to a loaded arbitration class, but that’d still leave them with less than $100MM in player expenditures. St. Louis has opened the past two seasons with a player payroll north of $150MM, so they could absolutely accommodate a hefty Arenado deal next year. Only Goldschmidt ($26MM), Steven Matz ($12.5MM) and Giovanny Gallegos ($5.5MM) are on guaranteed deals by 2024, so there shouldn’t be much long-term concern about keeping Arenado around.

That’s also true because the Cards will retain much of their remaining roster. Goldschmidt will be back at first base, while Tommy Edman is arbitration-eligible for three more seasons to take one middle infield spot. Edman is a decent hitter and one of the game’s best defenders at either second base or shortstop. He’ll certainly be in the lineup at one of those spots for manager Oliver Marmol, but there’s at least a chance for the Cardinals to look outside the organization for middle infield help.

St. Louis sat out a loaded free agent shortstop class last offseason, counting on Paul DeJong to return to form offensively. He did not, hitting a career-worst .157/.245/.286 over 237 MLB plate appearances. The Cardinals optioned him to Triple-A midway through the year, and while he performed fairly well there, he didn’t carry that over after returning to the majors for the season’s final two months. With $11MM remaining on his contract, taking the form of a $9MM 2023 salary and a $2MM buyout on a ’24 club option, DeJong will be tough to move. Maybe the Cardinals consider a swap of undesirable deals for a position of greater need — speculatively speaking, a deal with the Angels involving catcher Max Stassi could match up financially while making sense with each team’s roster outlook — but it’s also possible St. Louis just releases DeJong and eats the money. At the very least, his streak of five straight Opening Day starts at shortstop will come to an end.

There’s again a loaded shortstop class in free agency, with Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts locks to opt out of their current deals and join Dansby Swanson and Trea Turner. The Cardinals long-term financial flexibility means they could plausibly kick the tires on that group. However, signing one of the top shortstops would be out of character for an organization that has only once gone beyond $100MM on a free agent contract (seven years and $120MM to retain Matt Holliday in 2009-10) and has never signed a player for more than $130MM. Correa and Turner would shatter the franchise record outlay, and Bogaerts and Swanson shouldn’t have much trouble topping that figure themselves.

If Arenado opts out and signs elsewhere, a run at the top free agent shortstops would appear more realistic. If he stays, then the Cards could look to trade possibilities like the Guardians’ Amed Rosario or stick with Edman at shortstop while giving second base to a combination of Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan. Gorman is a former first-rounder and top prospect; he has huge power but notable strikeout issues and isn’t an ideal fit in the middle infield. Donovan was a less heralded prospect but finished seventh in the majors (minimum 400 plate appearances) with a .394 on-base percentage as a rookie. He worked in a bat-first utility role and may not be a great defender at the keystone either, but he looks like the kind of excellent contact hitter the Cardinals have excelled at developing over the years.

There’s not a huge need for an overhaul in the outfield. Corey Dickerson will probably walk in free agency, leaving the Cards with a group of Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbaar, Juan Yepez and breakout prospect Alec Burleson. Trading Harrison Bader at this past deadline subtracted an elite defender from the mix, but Carlson rated well in his half-season of center field work. The Cardinals seem committed to him as a franchise center fielder, and the others give them a balanced group of corner outfield/designated hitter options from which to choose. O’Neill had a down year after a standout 2021 campaign, but Nootbaar took a step forward and looks like a potential everyday player. Perhaps the Cardinals look for a glove-first backup to upgrade over Ben DeLuzio in a bench role, but this doesn’t look like a spot for a big investment.

That’d be particularly true if Arenado sticks around, since he’d lock down third base for the long haul. 2020 first-rounder Jordan Walker has blossomed into one of the sport’s top prospects as a potential impact power bat and is fresh off a .306/.388/.510 showing as a 20-year-old in Double-A. He’s played primarily third base in the minors but has gotten increasing work in the corner outfield. If Arenado and Goldschmidt are under contract for the next two-plus seasons, the corner outfield/DH is the easiest path to at-bats for Walker once he’s ready, which could be as soon as the middle of next season.

The position the Cardinals will need to address from outside the organization is catcher. For the first time in almost two decades, it won’t be Molina’s job. Andrew Knizner hasn’t shown himself capable of being Molina’s heir apparent as once hoped. He could stick around in a backup role, but he shouldn’t be expected to assume the #1 job. Prospect Iván Herrera hit .268/.374/.396 in 65 Triple-A games at age 22, earning a very brief big league look in the process. He’s a potential long-term option, but it’d probably be too risky to count on him as the top catcher for a win-now 2023 team.

Free agency doesn’t offer many obvious solutions. Longtime division rival Willson Contreras is the standout at the position. The Cardinals are a viable suitor for Contreras, but he’s more of a bat-first player and would be an atypical fit for an organization that has placed such a strong premium on defense. Signing Contreras, who’ll receive a qualifying offer, would also require forfeiting an amateur draft choice. Other than Contreras, Christian Vázquez may be the only free agent backstop who’s a lock to land a regular job, while Austin Hedges and Mike Zunino could be glove-first stopgaps to Herrera. The A’s Sean Murphy, who’s projected for a $3.5MM arbitration salary and controllable through 2025, would be the prize of the trade market at the position. If the Cardinals were inclined to make a splash, it’s easy to envision the A’s having interest in big league ready players like Gorman and Burleson.

St. Louis could poke around the trade market for controllable starting pitching as well, although they won’t enter the offseason with as pressing a rotation need as most teams. Miles Mikolas is under contract for an additional season, while deadline pickup Jordan Montgomery will be back for his final year of arbitration. St. Louis signed Matz to a four-year free agent deal last winter. Injuries contributed to a rough first season, but he’ll get a chance to bounce back. Wainwright would obviously have a rotation spot if he wants to return.

There’s a bit of uncertainty at the back end, but the Cardinals have options. Jack Flaherty has shown top-of-the-rotation potential in the past and is eligible for arbitration a final time. He’s lost most of the past year and a half to shoulder issues, but he’ll certainly be tendered a contract with a relatively modest projected $5.1MM arbitration salary. It’s possible Mozeliak and his staff gauge the trade market on Flaherty, but he wouldn’t garner a huge return and seems likelier to be on the Cards roster come Opening Day. If healthy, he figures to have a rotation spot.

There’s enough uncertainty with Flaherty and Matz the Cardinals could look for a depth option at the back end. Midseason trade pickup José Quintana pitched well enough down the stretch St. Louis tabbed him as the Game One starter for their Wild Card series. He’ll be a free agent and may have pitched himself beyond the Cards’ comfort range financially, but there’s a deep free agent market of innings-eating starting pitchers this winter. Players like Michael Wacha, Drew Smyly or Kyle Gibson figure to land affordable one or two-year contracts.

Adding another starter, particularly if Wainwright does opt for retirement, would have the added benefit of allowing St. Louis to pencil Andre Pallante into the bullpen. He worked as a swingman as a rookie and was a valuable ground-ball specialist. He’s an internal rotation option but could fit better in multi-inning relief. That’s also true of Dakota Hudson, who struggled enough as a starter he was optioned back to Triple-A late in the year. With a projected $2.7MM arb salary, Hudson could also be traded for a minimal return or just cut loose altogether.

At the back end of the bullpen, flamethrowing Ryan Helsley has broken out as one the game’s best relievers. The ever-consistent Gallegos joins him as a high-leverage option, and he was rewarded with a late-season two-year extension. Jordan Hicks and Alex Reyes have been inconsistent, largely due to injuries, but they’ve shown the potential to be high-leverage relievers at their best. Reyes missed all of 2022 and could be non-tendered, but the Cards could roll the dice on a $2.85MM salary depending on his recovery from May shoulder surgery. Chris Stratton came over from the Pirates in the Quintana deal and could factor in as well, although a projected $3.5MM salary might be rich for a player who didn’t make the team’s playoff roster.

There’s a bit of uncertainty from the left side, but the Cards again have options. Packy Naughton and former first-rounder Zack Thompson were serviceable. Génesis Cabrera had a brutal 2022 season but is only projected for a $1.2MM arbitration salary. He still throws in the mid-upper 90s and has taken high-leverage innings in the past. There’s room for another left-handed arm, particularly if the Cards move on from Cabrera, but adding there feels like more of a luxury than a necessity.

That’s true for much of the roster, which boasts a few star players and the Cardinals’ typical stockpile of depth. All eyes in St. Louis early in the offseason will be on Arenado. If he opts out and surprisingly signs with a different team, the Cards could find themselves in position for major turnover. If he stays in St. Louis, as most anticipate he will, the offseason figures to be primarily about preserving continuity — although they’ll have to make a change at catcher for the first time in 20 years regardless.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Cardinals-centric chat on 10-20-22. Click here to view the transcript of that discussion.

Previewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Class: Center Field

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MLBTR continues to go around the diamond to check in on the upcoming free agent market. In recent weeks, we’ve looked into the catchers and gone around the infield/corner outfield. Today, we’ll turn our attention to a center field class that falls off sharply after its top duo.

Tier Of His Own

What more can be said about Judge’s 2022 campaign? It was an all-time offensive performance. Judge hit 62 home runs, cementing himself in the history books and connecting on 16 more longballs than anyone else in the game this season. He slugged .686, the highest mark for a qualified hitter in a full schedule since 2004. Judge also led all qualified hitters this season in on-base percentage (.425) and finished fifth in batting average (.311). He’s the sport’s preeminent slugger, owner of an obscene 60.9% hard hit rate. Judge is also tremendously patient and has gotten some early-career strikeout concerns very much in check.

As far as 2023 goes, few players project to be more impactful. He’ll be the top overall player on the free agent market, and he’s in position to land one of the largest deals in major league history. The primary factor working against Judge is that he’s a bit on the older side for a first-time free agent, heading into his age-31 campaign. That’ll likely keep him from landing a decade-long commitment, but he has a chance to set the average annual value record for a position player over an eight or nine-year term.

There’s no question about Judge’s offensive potential, although he’s not likely to be a long-term fit in center fit. A natural right fielder, he played more center field for the Yankees this season due to the roster composition. He held his own, with public metrics like Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast’s Outs Above Average all pegging him as a hair better than par. Judge’s 6’7″, 280-plus pound build isn’t a traditional fit for center field, but he’s a good athlete and consistently posts plus defensive marks in right field. Teams are pursuing Judge primarily for what he can do in the batter’s box, but he’s a defensive asset as well and demonstrated this year he’s capable of manning center field if needed, at least early in the deal. Judge will receive and reject a qualifying offer, although it’s unlikely to have an impact on his market.

Clear #2

Nimmo took more than five years to reach the majors after going in the first round of the 2011 draft. While it took him some time to get to the big leagues, he almost immediately hit the ground running and has been a productive player throughout his Mets tenure. Nimmo has posted well above-average offensive rate stats in every year since 2017, with an on-base percentage of .367 or better in each season of his career. While he’s never topped 17 homers, he’s settled in as an excellent top-of-the-lineup table setter. Since the start of 2020, only five qualified hitters (Juan Soto, Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, Judge and Paul Goldschmidt) have been better than Nimmo at reaching base.

The main knock on Nimmo have never been about his productivity on a rate basis, but rather his lack of volume. He’s dealt with a number of injuries throughout his professional career, and he entered the 2022 campaign with just one 400+ plate appearance season on his resume. He stayed healthy through all of 2022, though, tallying a personal-high 151 games played and 673 trips to the plate. Teams may still have some lingering trepidation about investing in a player who spent time on the injured list in every full season of his career before this one, but he hits the market having proven himself capable of performing at a high level over 162 games.

Like Judge, Nimmo has spent extended stretches of his career in the corner outfield. He’s played almost exclusively up the middle the past two years, however, and he’s proven himself an adept defender. Public metrics unanimously had him as an above-average center fielder in 2021. Those estimators were more divided in 2022, with DRS pegging him a few runs below average while Statcast had him as six runs above par. At the very least, he looks like an adequate defensive center fielder, and some teams might see him as a plus. Nimmo is somewhat quietly one of the better outfielders in the sport, and he could be rewarded for his excellent platform season with a nine-figure deal. He’ll receive and reject a QO.

Players Coming Off Down Years

Duvall hit 38 home runs a season ago, but he managed just 13 round-trippers in 315 trips to the plate this year. Duvall strikes out a fair amount and rarely draws walks, leading to an on-base percentage of .301 or lower in each of the past three years. He’s a low-OBP slugger who plays plus corner outfield defense at his best. The Braves relied upon him for a career-high 382 innings of center field work this year. Public metrics felt he held his own up the middle, but he’ll be 34 next season and his disappointing offensive year was cut short in July when he underwent surgery on his left wrist.

Bradley is a former Gold Glove winner and was one of the game’s top defensive outfielders at his peak. His offensive production has waxed and waned throughout his career, but he was an above-average hitter as recently as 2020. Bradley has unfortunately been among the game’s least effective hitters in each of the last two seasons, though. He followed up a .163/.236/.261 showing last year in Milwaukee with an only slightly improved .203/.255/.311 mark over 370 trips to the plate for the Red Sox and Blue Jays in 2022. Even with his defensive ability, he could be in minor league deal territory this winter.

Herrera posted a serviceable .260/.310/.416 line with the Phillies in 2021, leading the Phils to bring him back as part of a spotty center field mix entering this season. The switch-hitter missed some time early due to an oblique strain and hit only .238/.279/.378 across 197 plate appearances. Philadelphia released him in early August, and he didn’t catch on elsewhere for the stretch run.

Cain hit .179/.231/.234 in 43 games with the Brewers this year. Milwaukee released him in mid-June, shortly after he crossed the ten-year MLB service time threshold. Cain didn’t sign elsewhere and has spoken about how much he’s enjoyed spending additional time with his family. He hasn’t officially called it a career, and the respected veteran would presumably have some minor league opportunities if he wanted to give it another go, but it seems likely his playing days are behind him.

Depth Players

Phillips is a plus defender at all three outfield spots. He owns one of the game’s top throwing arms and is an excellent baserunner. Yet he’s simply not been productive enough as a hitter to merit more than fifth outfield playing time, and he’s coming off a dismal .144/.217/.249 showing in 225 plate appearances split between the Rays and Orioles. Phillips went unclaimed on waivers in August and could be limited to minor league offers with Spring Training invitations.

Davis is a speed and defense oriented player who’s suited up with three teams over the past five years. He draws a fair number of walks but doesn’t provide much else offensively. A career .185/.291/.245 hitter over 171 games, he cleared waivers after being designated for assignment by the Brewers last month.

Heyward is still under contract for 2023, but the Cubs have already announced he’ll be released at the start of the offseason. Heyward simply never hit at anywhere near the level Chicago had anticipated when signing him to an eight-year, $184MM free agent deal heading into 2016. He’s a respected clubhouse presence and still a capable defender around the outfield grass, but he hits the market coming off a .204/.278/.277 showing in 48 games. It seems likely he’ll be limited to minor league offers, but the Cubs would be on the hook for all but the league minimum if Heyward cracks the majors with another team next year.

Another glove-first depth type, Almora was a regular for a few years with the Cubs early in his career. He tallied 235 plate appearances with the Reds this past season, his heaviest workload since 2019. Almora hit .223/.282/.349 and was released in September.

Once a top prospect in the St. Louis and Miami systems, Sierra has long been of interest for his elite speed and defensive ability. He has zero power, however, yet to connect on a single homer in 278 MLB games. The resulting .228/.273/.272 career slash line has left him in journeyman territory. Sierra took 96 plate appearances with the Angels this year before being outrighted off the roster earlier this month.

Hermosillo has played in the majors in each of the past five seasons, but he’s never gotten more than 31 games in any individual year. He hit .115/.250/.148 over 73 plate appearances with the Cubs this year, losing a large chunk of the season to a quad strain. Chicago outrighted him last month.

Duggar was the primary center fielder for the Giants in 2021, posting respectable numbers despite a strikeout rate pushing 30%. He didn’t get much of a big league look this year, however, as he quickly landed on the injured list and was eventually traded to the Rangers. Duggar also suited up with the Angels briefly and posted a combined .153/.225/.222 line in 80 plate appearances between the three clubs. He was designated for assignment by the Halos in September and elected free agency after clearing waivers.

Brinson was a top prospect and twice at the center of a major trade before exhausting his rookie eligibility. Given a few extended runs by the Marlins, he never overcame dismal strikeout and walk numbers to fully tap into his athleticism and power potential. Brinson was limited to minor league offers last winter. He had a great showing in Triple-A — as he has throughout much of his career — and earned a 16-game look with the Giants late in the year. Brinson hit three homers but struck out in 14 of his 39 MLB plate appearances before being outrighted off the roster.

Marisnick has appeared in parts of nine straight major league seasons. The past three have been in fourth/fifth outfield duty, with his glove getting him on rosters despite significant strikeout issues. Marisnick played in 31 games with the Pirates this year, hitting .234/.272/.390. He was released in August and finished out the year on a minor league contract with the Braves, struggling over 17 Triple-A games.

Allen’s speed has been his primary asset throughout his big league tenure. He’s an excellent baserunner but has drawn mixed reviews for his center field defense and hasn’t hit much in the majors. A big 15-game showing with the Yankees in 2021 earned him 134 plate appearances with the Pirates this year, but he stumbled to a .186/.260/.271 line before being waived in September.

The speedy Hamilton had brief looks with the Marlins and Twins this year, often in a designated pinch-running capacity. A former everyday player and 50-steal threat during his early days in Cincinnati, Hamilton has bounced around the league in recent years.

Players With Contractual Options

The Rays are certain to buy Kiermaier out rather than pay the extra $11MM it’d take to bring him back. That’s only natural after his disappointing 2022 showing, in which he hit .228/.281/.369 over 221 plate appearances before undergoing season-ending hip surgery. Even as he’s gotten into his 30’s, Kiermaier has remained one of the sport’s preeminent defensive center fielders. Yet he’s also spent a fair amount of time on the injured list throughout his career, at least in part due to the highly aggressive play style that makes him such an electrifying defender. Kiermaier may well be the third-best center fielder on the market this year, but there’s obvious risk in signing a player whose game is so reliant on athleticism coming off hip surgery.

  • AJ Pollock (35), $13MM player option, $5MM buyout

Pollock had a tough first season in Chicago after heading over from the Dodgers in a pre-Opening Day trade. The veteran outfielder hit .245/.292/.389 with 14 homers over 527 plate appearances. By eclipsing 500 trips to the dish, he escalated the value of his option from its base $10MM to $13MM. Pollock had a nice September, but his slow start and age make it hard to see him topping the $8MM he’d have to forego to test the market. He’s likely to exercise his option and return to the South Siders.

Previous installments: Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstops, Corner outfielders

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The ALCS?

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The Yankees knocked off the Guardians by a 5-1 margin this evening, taking two elimination games to advance past Cleveland. New York is back in the AL Championship Series for the first time since 2019.

Awaiting them tomorrow: an Astros juggernaut that has had one of the better runs of playoff success in recent history. Houston has gotten to the ALCS in six straight seasons. The first of those seasons was their now-infamous run to a World Series that was later revealed to be aided by a sign-stealing operation. Houston has barely missed a beat in the half-decade since then, though, playing for the pennant every year. The Astros claimed the pennant in both 2019 and 2021 (eliminating the Yankees during the former season), and while they’ve not managed to win a World Series since 2017, they’ve joined the 1990’s Braves as the only teams to reach six consecutive Championship Series.

Houston has home field advantage after a 106-win regular season, claiming the AL’s top seed in the second half after an historically great first few months by the Yankees. The ’Stros swept their division-rival Mariners last week, earning three off days in the process. Their pitching staff should essentially be lined up as desired, and they’ll turn to presumptive Cy Young favorite Justin Verlander tomorrow evening. The Yankees will answer with Jameson Taillon for Game One after using top two starters Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes on Sunday and today, respectively, to survive the Guardians.

The Yankees, anchored by an all-time great season from Aaron Judge, led all American League teams with 807 runs scored. Houston finished third in that category, plating 737 runs. New York finished second in the Junior Circuit behind the Blue Jays in on-base percentage at .325, while the Astros placed fourth at .319. The Yankees finished second in slugging (again behind Toronto) at .426, while Houston was just behind at .424.

While New York had a slight advantage offensively, the Astros were clearly the best pitching team in the American League. They led the league with a 2.95 rotation ERA, a half-run better than the second-place Rays. New York came in third at 3.51. Astros and Yankees starters each fanned 24.8% of opponents (with the Astros leading the league by a fraction of a percentage point). Houston’s bullpen was also number one in strikeout percentage at 28.3%, while the Yankees checked in sixth at 24.2%. Houston (2.80) and New York (2.97) finished first and second, respectively, in bullpen ERA.

It’s a battle of the two teams that have looked to be the best in the American League, in some order, from start to finish. Yesterday, MLBTR readers weighed in on an NLCS that took the exact opposite form. In a battle of the Senior Circuit’s fifth and sixth seeds, the readership gave a 56-44 edge to the Padres over the Phillies.  We’ll now put forth the same question for the American League. Which team is headed to the World Series: Astros or Yankees?

(poll link for app users)

Who Will Win The AL Championship Series?
Astros 67.93% (6,594 votes)
Yankees 32.07% (3,113 votes)
Total Votes: 9,707

 

Previewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Class: Corner Outfield

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As the offseason approaches, MLBTR is taking a position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class. Today, we’ll focus on corner outfield, which features a very obvious name at the top, but several other decent options as well.

Top of the Class

Did you know that Aaron Judge had a pretty good season in 2022? Many people are talking about it. Perhaps you heard. 62 home runs, 16 stolen bases, a hair away from a Triple Crown, .311/.425/.686, 207 wRC+, 11.4 fWAR, 10.6 bWAR. Judge’s season was so good that he’s going to steal an MVP award from Shohei Ohtani, despite Ohtani having yet another “we’ve never seen this before” kind of season.

Judge will be the top name on this year’s free agent market, regardless of position. He’s long been one of baseball’s preeminent sluggers but took his game up a notch at the perfect time, just on the verge of hitting the open market. In addition to his incredible work with the bat, he also expanded his repertoire with the glove. Though he had 24 games of center field experience coming into this year, he added 78 more. Advanced defensive metrics considered his work passable up the middle, but any team signing Judge to a long-term deal will likely prefer to keep him in a corner.

The major question about Judge’s market will be the length of his next contract. He turns 31 in April, which will likely lead to him getting a deal at eight or nine years, though it will depend how crazy the bidding gets. The Yankees offered Judge a seven-year, $213.5MM extension in the spring, which came with an average annual value of $30.5MM. But he reportedly sought an AAV of $36MM over a period of nine or ten years. The decision to turn down that offer now looks very wise, as he’s done nothing but increase his value since then. He will receive and reject a qualifying offer, though that will be a small matter for teams willing to meet his asking price.

Everyday Regulars

During his first few years in the majors, Benintendi seemed like he was on his way to becoming one of the elite players around the league. He produced 5.0 fWAR in 2018 when he was just 23 years old, displaying a five-tool skillset. He took a step back in 2019 and then suffered through an injury-marred 2020 before getting traded to the Royals.

Since then, he’s been able to re-establish himself as a solid everyday player. He might not be able to recapture the form he showed in 2018, but he’s still been plenty useful. Last year, he hit 17 home runs with KC and slashed .276/.324/.442 for a wRC+ of 105. This year, he traded in power for a better approach at the plate, striking out less and walking more. He hit .304/.373/.399 on the season as a whole for a 122 wRC+, including time with the Yankees after a deadline deal. His 2.8 fWAR is his best apart from that 2018 peak. Hamate surgery in early September put an early end to his regular season and may prevent him from appearing in the playoffs with the Yankees, but he’s still shown that he can be a solid piece of an everyday lineup. He is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer due to his midseason trade.

Brantley has dealt with a handful of injuries in his career but has always been an excellent hitter when healthy. He played only 11 games in 2016 and then only 90 in 2017 but then managed to put together a four-year run of good health. He got into 143 games in 2018, 148 in 2019, 46 in the 60-game 2020 campaign and then 121 in 2021. Over that four-year stretch, he hit .309/.366/.472 for a wRC+ of 127.

He was humming along at a similar clip here in 2022, hitting .288/.370/.416 for a wRC+ of 127 through 64 games before a shoulder injury placed him on the IL. That would eventually require season-ending surgery, though Brantley intends to play again next year and should be ready for spring. As he ages, the concerns about durability should grow, but there’s no question he’s an upgrade to any lineup when he’s in it. Brantley is unlikely to receive a qualifying offer after missing the second half of the season.

Haniger is an excellent hitter and the primary question mark hovering around him is health. For his career, he’s hit .261/.335/.476 for a wRC+ of 122. In 2022, he slashed .246/.308/.429 for a wRC+ of 113. However, he only got into 57 games this year, primarily because of ankle sprains. He was healthy enough to play 157 games in both 2021 and 2018, but those are the only campaigns he’s gotten over the century mark. He also missed the 2020 season entirely.

Haniger’s free agent market will be difficult to predict. On the one hand, he’s been consistently good, producing above-average numbers in five consecutive full seasons. On the other hand, he’s only been properly healthy in two out of the past six years. Someone will surely bet on the upside of his bat, though the size and strength of his contract will depend on how teams weigh the durability concerns. Haniger is a borderline qualifying offer candidate.

Mancini had a tremendous 2019 season where he hit 35 home runs and produced a batting line of .291/.364/.535, wRC+ of 132. He then missed the entire 2020 season while undergoing treatment for colon cancer. After recovering, he’s returned to be a solid, above-average regular, though not quite at that 2019 level. Over 2021 and 2022, he hit 39 home runs in 290 games, slashing .247/.323/.412, wRC+ of 104. He’s better suited to be a regular at first base but still played 31 games in the outfield corners this year. He is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer due to his midseason trade.

McCutchen is a few years removed from his MVP form but can still be a serviceable player. In 134 games this year, he hit 17 homers and stole eight bases. His overall batting line was .237/.316/.384, just a hair below league average with a wRC+ of 98. He also provided adequate defense, with all of DRS, UZR and OAA considering him to be average or above in the field. He’s better against lefties and would perhaps be best suited to something less than a full-time role, but he’s not going to kill you if he’s in there every day. He put up a 106 wRC+ against lefties this year and a 95 against righties.

Pederson had subpar seasons in both 2020 and 2021 and had to settle for a one-year, $6MM deal with the Giants. Pederson responded with perhaps his best season to date, putting up a .274 batting average that was more than 20 points above his previous career high. The power was still there as well, as he hit 23 long balls. His overall line was .274/.353/.521, production that was 44% better than league average as measured by wRC+.

For his career, Pederson has had noticeable platoon splits, producing a 127 wRC+ against righties but just a 72 against lefties. However, he showed a marked improvement in that department this year, with a 149 wRC+ while holding the platoon advantage but a 112 when facing southpaws. This is a small sample, however, with the Giants giving him just 57 plate appearances against lefties.

Defensive metrics have never been kind to him but were especially harsh this year. He posted a -10 UZR, -15 DRS and -11 OAA. It’s certainly a flawed profile, but Pederson still produced 2.1 fWAR this year, his best campaign since 2019.

Conforto missed all of the 2022 season after suffering an offseason shoulder injury that required surgery. He wasn’t at peak form in 2021 either, hitting .232/.344/.384 through 479 plate appearances. The shoulder issue means Conforto may well be looking at a one-year bounceback deal to try to propel himself back into the multi-year deal territory he’d been seeking early last winter during a return trip to free agency in 2023-24. He raked at a .265/.369/.495 clip between 2017-20, making him a very interesting rebound candidate.

Platoon Options/Veterans Coming Off Down Years

Dickerson played 97 games for the Cardinals this year, hitting .267/.300/.399 for a wRC+ of 98. This was his third straight year of being just a bit below league average. He doesn’t strike out much, as he hasn’t had a rate above 20.1% in the last five years and was at just 16.2% this season. However, he also doesn’t walk often, with a 5.8% rate in that department for his career and just 4% this year. He got a one-year deal last winter and will likely be looking at the same scenario this offseason. He was much better against righties, though the Cards only let him get 28 plate appearances against southpaws.

Duvall had perhaps the best season of his career in 2021, mashing 38 home runs and winning a Gold Glove for his work in right field. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to carry it forward into 2022. He limped to a line of .213/.276/.401 over 86 games and then required season-ending wrist surgery in July. He’s always been a wide variance guy, hitting lots of homers but also racking up lots of strikeouts. He’d be an interesting low-risk flier but his market will likely depend on his health.

Gallo is perhaps the most mercurial player in the league, occasionally looking like one of the best hitters alive but then looking completely hopeless for extended stretches. The poster boy for the three true outcomes, he always piles up huge amounts of strikeouts, walks and home runs.

From 2017 to 2019, he hit 103 homers while striking out in 36.8% of his plate appearances and walking in 14.3% of them. His .217/.336/.533 batting line led to a 120 wRC+. He slumped in the shortened 2020 season to the tune of .181/.301/.378, wRC+ of 86. In the first half of 2021, he rebounded by hitting .223/.379/.490 for a 128 wRC+ with the Rangers. But after a trade to the Yankees, he hit just .160/.303/.404, 95 wRC+. He was still with the Yanks to start 2022 but struggled again, hitting .159/.282/.339, wRC+ of 82. A trade to the Dodgers improved things, but only slightly, as Gallo hit .162/.277/.393 in Los Angeles for a wRC+ of 91.

Gallo’s now over a year removed from looking like a competent hitter, but he was red hot just before then. Despite the struggles, he keeps getting attention from contending teams and is sure to get interest this winter based on his tremendous power and relative youth.

Game spent 2022 as the solid veteran on a Pittsburgh team full of youngsters still trying to find their footing. He performed decently in that role. In 115 games, he hit nine long balls, stole five bases and drew walks in 11.3% of his plate appearances. He finished with a batting line of .232/.324/.369, just barely below league average with a wRC+ of 97. He was way better with the platoon advantage, hitting .252 against righties with a 112 wRC+, while hitting .175 against southpaws with a 56 wRC+.

Grossman had an excellent showing in the shortened 2020 season and the Tigers took a chance on him repeating that. They gave him a two-year deal that looked like a shrewd move after a 2021 campaign where the switch-hitter went deep 23 times and hit .239/.357/.415, wRC+ of 116. Unfortunately, he took a step back this year, hitting just seven homers and slashing .209/.310/.311, 82 wRC+. He’s been much better against lefties this year and in his career overall, perhaps suggesting he’s best suited to be in the short side of a platoon.

Naquin played well enough for the Reds this year that he was acquired by the Mets at the deadline, primarily because he’s a left-handed bat who generally fares well with the platoon advantage. Between the two clubs, he hit .241/.300/.446 for a 105 wRC+ against righties, but just .180/.206/.328 against southpaws for a 43 wRC+. His career splits are similar but not quite as pronounced, 109 wRC+ against righties and 62 against lefties.

Peralta had spent his entire career with the Diamondbacks up until a few months ago. With some exciting young outfielders bubbling up to the majors, it came time to make some room for them, with Peralta getting dealt to the Rays. He was a bit above average overall this year, bouncing back after a down year in 2021. This season’s batting line was .251/.316/.415 for a wRC+ of 104. However, it wasn’t a strong finish, as he produced a 111 wRC+ before the deal and a 91 after. Peralta has always been better against righties but his platoon splits were especially pronounced this year, leading to a 38 wRC+ against southpaws but a 116 when holding the platoon advantage.

Utility/Depth Types

Almora is considered a glove-first player and lived up to that reputation this year. In 64 games with the Reds, he hit .223/.282/.349 for a wRC+ of 71 but also produced 8 DRS, 6 OAA and 7.8 UZR in 523 innings across all three outfield positions. He was released in September and will likely be looking at minor league deals.

Bradley has long been an excellent defender but has been less steady at the plate, having some excellent offensive seasons but also some poor ones. After a strong campaign in 2020, he was able to secure a two-year, $24MM contract from the Brewers. Unfortunately, he was a disaster in 2021 and got traded back to the Red Sox for 2022. Boston was surely hoping for Bradley’s bat to reverse course again but it never happened and he got released, signing with the Blue Jays shortly thereafter.

Between the Sox and Jays, he finished 2022 with a line of .203/.255/.311, wRC+ of 56. He hasn’t been above-average at the plate in a full season since 2016 but still gets excellent grades for his defense. He could draw some interest as a depth outfielder, or perhaps a rebuilding team would give him regular at-bats and hope for another bounceback so that he could become a deadline trade chip.

Diaz has been serving a utility role for the Astros in recent years, playing all over the infield as well as time in left field. He’s not a true outfielder but can be stashed in a corner when needed. In each of the past three seasons, he’s been just barely below league average at the plate. His 2022 batting line was .243/.287/.403 for a wRC+ of 96.

Once considered one of the top prospects in baseball, Mazara has failed to live up to the hype. After seven seasons in the big leagues, he’s shown good power but never walked much or hit for a high average, never producing a wRC+ higher than 95. This year, he hit .264/.316/.352 for the Padres, producing a wRC+ of 94. He was released in August and will have to settle for a minor league deal, just like he did a year ago.

Pinder hit 12 home runs this season, his highest total since 2019. However, his 3.7% walk rate and 31.1% strikeout rate were both career worsts. His batting line of .235/.263/.385 was 14% below league average by measure of wRC+. The most-recent and only time he cracked 100 in that department was back in 2018. Pinder played all over the infield earlier in his career but was mostly on the grass this year.

Piscotty had some nice seasons earlier in his career but the last time he was above-average with the bat was 2018. This year, he hit .190/.252/.341 for a wRC+ of 70. He only walked in 6.5% of his plate appearances and struck out in 34.5% of them. He was released by the A’s in August and signed a minor league deal with the Reds.

Player Options

  • AJ Pollock (35), $13MM player option with $5MM buyout

Pollock signed a four-year deal with the Dodgers prior to the 2019 campaign, with that deal carrying a player option for 2023. The base of the option was originally $10MM with a $5MM buyout, though that salary could be pushed up based on plate appearances. Pollock could kick it up by $1MM for hitting 400, 450, 500, 550 and 600 plate appearances in 2022. In the end, he got to 527, adding an extra $3MM. That makes this a net $8MM decision for Pollock.

Even before those escalators were tacked on, Pollock was likely leaning towards exercising the option based on his weak season this year. In the first three years of his contract, Pollock hit .282/.337/.519 for a wRC+ of 125. But after being traded to the White Sox, he hit .245/.292/.389, wRC+ of 92. He still mashes lefties, putting up a 161 wRC+ against them this year, compared to just a 69 against righties. He would certainly get interest from teams looking to put him into a platoon role, though it might be wise for him to simply collect his salary and stay with the Sox for another season.

Profar signed a three-year deal with the Padres prior to the 2021 campaign, with the contract allowing him the opportunity to opt out after each season. The first year did not go well, as Profar hit just .227/.329/.320 in 2021, producing a wRC+ of just 86. However, he had a much better campaign this year, hitting .243/.331/.391, 110 wRC+.

Defensively, Profar has played many positions in his career but the Friars kept him in left field exclusively this season. The consistency seems to have suited him, as he posted a DRS of 2 and a UZR of 1.1, though OAA was less enthusiastic and gave him a -4. With his decent showing on both sides of the ball, he’s been worth 2.5 fWAR this year.

Given the buyout, this is effectively a $6.5MM decision for Profar. He’s not among the game’s elite but is solid enough that he should be able to find more than that on the open market. He’s also having a nice postseason so far, walking more than he strikes out, and could boost his earning power if he can keep that up.

Club/Mutual Options

2022 was the worst full season of Calhoun’s career. In 125 games for the Rangers, he hit .196/.257/.330 for a wRC+ of 67, his lowest such mark outside of a cup of coffee in his 2012 debut. He struck out in 32.1% of his plate appearances, easily eclipsing his previous career high of 25.6%. The Rangers are sure to pass on his option and look for alternatives in the outfield for next season.

  • Wil Myers (32), $20MM club option with $1MM buyout

Myers has been floated in trade rumors for years but has still stuck around San Diego. That’s more a reflection of his contract than his performance, as Myers is still been an above-average hitter for the majority of his career. He and the club signed a six-year, $83MM extension prior to the 2017 season. That extension was heavily backloaded, with Myers earning $20MM in each of the final three years.

Since joining the Padres in 2015, Myers has mostly been solid, though not elite. His overall batting line in those eight seasons is .254/.330/.451, wRC+ of 111. He slumped in 2019 and had a wRC+ of 97 then rebounded with a huge 155 wRC+ in 2020. Apart from that, he’s been between 104 and 115 in each season in San Diego. In 2022, he hit .261/.315/.398 for a wRC+ of 104, though injuries limited him to just 77 games.

There’s no way the Padres will exercise that option, with Myers sure to get the buyout instead. He’ll head to free agency as a guy capable of being a solid regular somewhere. He’s earned good defensive marks for his work in the outfield while also spending some time at first base.

  • Tommy Pham (35), $12MM mutual option with $1.5MM buyout

Pham was a free agent a year ago, securing himself a $7.5MM guarantee from the Reds. That came in the form of a $6MM salary and a $1.5MM buyout on a mutual option for 2023. Some reporting had the value of the option as $6MM but it was recently reported to actually be $12MM.

The outfielder took a step back this year, hitting .236/.312/.374 for a wRC+ of 89, a drop-off from his 2021 line of .229/.340/.383, 102 wRC+. The Red Sox, who acquired Pham midseason, won’t be interested in paying him a $12MM salary after that slide. As is so often the case with mutual options, the result will be free agency.

* Player age for 2023 season

Previous FA positional previews: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop

Previewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Class: Shortstops

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With the offseason drawing nearer, MLBTR will be breaking down the free-agent class on a position-by-position basis. We’ve already run through this winter’s crop of catchers, first basemen, second basemen and third basemen. You can check out the full list of this offseason’s free agents here, but today we’ll dive into yet another deep class of star-caliber shortstops who are likely to become available.

The Big Four

While not technically a free agent yet, there’s no doubt that Bogaerts will opt out of the remaining three years and $60MM on his contract — if the two parties can’t first work out an extension. That’ll be the team’s focus for the next month, but failing a new long-term deal, Bogaerts will opt out, receive a qualifying offer, reject it and become a free agent for the first time in his career.

The 2022 season marked something of an odd year for the four-time All-Star and four-time Silver Slugger winner. Bogaerts’ power numbers (15 home runs, .149 ISO) dipped to their lowest point since 2017, but he also enjoyed the defensive season of his career by measure of virtually every publicly available metric (4 Defensive Runs Saved, 4.9 Ultimate Zone Rating, 5 Outs Above Average).

In seasons past, Bogaerts’ glove was seen as his primary flaw. He’s typically graded out as a below-average defender and been seen as a candidate for an eventual position change. This year’s performance will likely quiet that chatter for now, and while the drop in power is of some concern, power was down throughout the league and Bogaerts did regain some extra-base pop in the season’s final couple months.

Besides, his .307/.377/.456 batting line from 2022 was still excellent, and when looking at the past half-decade on the whole, Bogaerts owns a stout .300/.373/.507 slash with 105 homers, 177 doubles, a 9.9% walk rate and an 18.1% strikeout rate in 2737 plate appearances. He’ll play all of next season at 30 years old, and it’s reasonable to expect the market could produce at least a seven-year deal for him.

There was never much doubt, but last week, Correa publicly declared for the first time that he’ll opt out of the remaining two years and $70.2MM on his contract (barring an extension before his opt-out date, five days after the World Series). Correa will return to the open market having just turned 28 years old and on the heels of a strong .291/.366/.467 batting line in what could very well be his lone season as a Twin. He’s said all the right things about enjoying his time in Minnesota and hoping to ink a long-term deal in a setting that his young family has already grown to love, but an extension feels like a long shot.

The 2022 season wasn’t Correa’s best, but that’s only because of the lofty standards he’s previously established. Correa was 40% better than average with the bat, by measure of wRC+, but his previously Platinum Glove-winning defense fell to merely above-average, per DRS and UZR. (Notably, OAA pegged his glovework as actually slightly below average.) Twins brass has spent much of the year lauding Correa’s glovework, leadership and clubhouse presence. There’s surely some genuine interest in keeping him, but doing so would require eclipsing Joe Mauer’s $184MM guarantee for the largest contract in franchise history — likely by a rather large margin.

Correa had plenty of injuries earlier in his career and had a pair of brief IL stints in 2022 due to a minor finger injury and a spell on the Covid list. But he’s played in 89% of his team’s games over the past three seasons and logged a hefty 132 wRC+ in that span. Since 2018, his 50 DRS are tied for sixth-most in MLB, regardless of position. His 45 OAA places him seventh.

It’s hard to imagine Correa securing the reported $330MM+ he was reportedly seeking in free agency last winter. He’s a year older now and coming off a strong but lesser season than his career year in 2021. That said, he’s still squarely in his prime, is generally regarded as a plus contributor on both sides of the ball and in the clubhouse, and he finished out the season on a high note, ranking as one of the AL’s most productive bats over the final two months. He’s also the only one of this top-tier group that can’t receive a qualifying offer (by virtue of receiving one last year).

Traded by the Diamondbacks just six months after being selected with the No. 1 pick in 2015, Swanson made his big league debut barely one year after that top overall selection. After a few years of anywhere from lackluster to downright poor offensive output, Swanson turned a corner in 2019 and, since 2020, has been an above-average offensive player: .265/.324/.451, 62 home runs, 80 doubles, three triples, 32-for-42 in stolen bases.

Granted, by measure of wRC+, Swanson has “only” been nine percent better than league-average at the plate in that three-year span (though 16% in 2022 alone). But, for a player who provides plenty of baserunning value and has been considered anywhere from a plus to an elite defender at shortstop, that’s plenty of bat. Swanson’s 2022 season, in particular, has been sensational in the eyes of DRS (9) and OAA (20). Statcast has been particularly bullish on Swanson’s defense over the years, ranking him 13th among all big leaguers in OAA (38) and 15th in Runs Above Average (28) since the start of the 2018 season.

Swanson will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Braves, subjecting him to draft pick compensation this winter. At 29 years old this February, he’s the second-youngest in this top tier. Swanson surely took note as both Javier Baez and Trevor Story — who also had a qualifying offer attached to him — landed six-year deals with $140MM guarantees last year at the same age last winter.

Quite arguably the best shortstop on the market this winter, Turner will reach free agency for the first time on the heels of a .298/.343/.466 slash (128 wRC+) in 160 games and 708 plate appearances. Turner’s 21 homers this year were down from last year’s career-best 28, and with “just” 27 steals (in 30 tries), he’s perhaps no longer the annual threat for 40-plus steals he was earlier in his career.

That said, Turner has hit .298 or better in each of the past four seasons and has never fanned at even a 20% clip in a full Major League season. He’s batted .311/.361/.509 (133 wRC+) over the past four seasons, played in 89.6% of possible games along the way (92% since 2018) and averaged 26.5 home runs and 35.1 steals per 162 games played. Turner graded as a standout defender at shortstop in 2018 but has been about average by measure of both DRS and OAA since that time. Even if he eventually moves off shortstop, Turner’s athleticism figures to make him adaptable to a new position; he posted plus defensive grades in two months as the Dodgers’ second baseman following the 2021 trade that sent him to L.A.

Turner, who’ll turn 30 next June, is younger than Bogaerts but 10 months older than Swanson and nearly two years older than Correa. Like Bogaerts and Swanson, he’s both eligible to receive and extraordinarily likely to reject a qualifying offer, which will subject him to draft-pick compensation this winter. With the market’s very top free agents, that’s often the cost of doing business and rarely something that will cause a big-market club to withhold interest entirely — but it’s a factor that’s at least worth noting.

The ten-year megadeals that 30-year-old free agents were once occasionally able to command (e.g. Robinson Cano, Albert Pujols) have generally fallen to the wayside, as teams tend to reserve lengths of ten or more years for players who are in their mid-20s. Position players reaching the market around Turner’s age have more recently been capped at signing through age-37, which would mean an eight-year deal in Turner’s case. Given his rare blend of power and speed, his durability and his general athleticism, Turner can also expect to command a salary near the top of the AAV scale for position players.

Veterans Coming Off Solid Seasons

At 34, Andrus isn’t the player he once was, but he still hit quite well after being released by the A’s and signing with the White Sox (.271/.309/.464, nine homers in 191 plate appearances). The 17 home runs Andrus hit this past season were his most since 2017. (It bears mentioning, too, that his release was less about his level of play than about ensuring that he didn’t receive the playing time to trigger a $15MM player option.)

A premier defender earlier in his career, Andrus now receives split grades from defensive metrics. Statcast still feels that he’s a plus defender, but DRS has given him negative marks for the past four years. If a team agrees that Andrus remains at least an above-average shortstop, this year’s rebound at the plate could net him a two-year deal. At the very least, Andrus should command a one-year, Major League contract to serve as a team’s primary shortstop.

Diaz has played at least 45 innings at five different positions this season: all four infield spots and left field. He was primarily a shortstop early in his career and still has more total innings there than at any position. He never graded well there, and as he enters his mid-30s, he’ll be viewed as more of a utility player. Diaz’s .255/.302/.427 line in 2022 is quite similar to the .259/.318/.433 slash he’s posted over four total seasons with the ’Stros. He’s a right-handed bat who’s shown a pretty noticeable platoon split over the past couple seasons, though early in his career he hit fellow righties better than lefties. He’s had just eight plate appearances with the Astros in the postseason thus far, going 1-for-7 and also getting hit by a pitch.

Like Andrus, Iglesias was once considered one of MLB’s top defensive shortstops but has seen his ratings plummet. He posted a staggering -22 DRS with the Angels and Red Sox in 2021, though he bounced most of the way back in 2022 and finished with a -4 mark. OAA has him as a scratch defender over the past few years.

At the plate, Iglesias continues to post solid or better batting averages thanks to excellent bat-to-ball skills, but he still has one of the worst walk rates in the game. He hit .292/.328/.380 with the Rockies in 2022. Iglesias will turn 33 in January and, after signing one-year deals in his last two trips to the open market, will find similar offers this winter.

Notable Rebound Hopefuls

It’s been a swift decline for Gregorius, who starred in the Bronx as the successor to Derek Jeter and looked strong in the first season of his post-Yankees career, hitting .284/.339/.488 for the Phillies while playing in all 60 games of the shortened 2020 campaign. In two seasons since, he’s flopped with a .210/.267/.345 batting line, leading to his release in August. He won’t turn 33 until February, so there’s time for him to bounce back, but the 2021-22 seasons were disastrous.

It’s hard to compare the defense of current players to those from prior generations, but Simmons has a legitimate case as one of the greatest defensive players ever. He’s the all-time leader in DRS, which dates back to 2002, and is fourth since the inception of UZR and OAA. He has four Gold Glove Awards and a Platinum Glove win, and Simmons would probably have more hardware were it not for a few injury-shortened seasons. Unfortunately, his bat has also cratered in recent years, with just a .216/.277/.261 slash between the Twins and Cubs in 2021-22. Among hitters with at least 500 plate appearances over the past two seasons, Simmons ranks third-worst with a 53 wRC+. The Cubs released him on Aug. 7.

Villar hit 24 homers and swiped 40 bags with the O’s in 2019, struggled through a dismal showing between Miami and Toronto in 2020, and rebounded nicely with the 2021 Mets. The pendulum swung back in the other direction this year, as he was released by both the Cubs and Angels while hitting a combined .208/.260/.302. At his best, Villar is a switch-hitter with some power and difference-making speed, but he’s been wildly inconsistent in a career that has featured more valleys than peaks.

Depth Options

  • Johan Camargo (29): Camargo had a big 2018 season with the Braves and has never recreated it, hitting .219/.271/.348 over the past four seasons. He’s a utility option but did log 186 innings at shortstop for the Phillies this year.
  • Alcides Escobar (36): Escobar had a brief resurgence with the 2021 Nats, but that was the only time since 2014 his bat has been close to average. He hit .218/.262/.282 in 131 plate appearances with Washington this year.
  • Marwin Gonzalez (34): Gonzalez played only 94 innings at short from 2019-21, but the Yankees gave him 134 innings there in 2022. The veteran switch-hitter is primarily a utility option, though, and this year’s .185/.255/.321 slash in 207 plate appearances leaves plenty to be desired.
  • Dixon Machado (30): Machado hit .280/.359/.393 in 277 games in the Korea Baseball Organization from 2020-21 and posted similar Triple-A numbers between the Cubs and Giants this year. He’s never hit in the Majors, however, evidenced by a .226/.285/.292 batting line in 522 trips to the plate.
  • Deven Marrero (32): A former first-round pick and top prospect, Marrero is a .191/.246/.279 hitter in 373 Major League plate appearances across parts of seven seasons. He saw brief time with the Mets in 2022.
  • Richie Martin (28): The top pick by the Orioles in the 2018 Rule 5 Draft, Martin survived his Rule 5 season in the Majors but never found his stride, perhaps in part due to injuries. He’s now a career .212/.261/.311 hitter in 447 MLB plate appearances and has just a .240/.336/.366 slash in parts of two Triple-A seasons.
  • JT Riddle (31): Riddle got some run with the Marlins in 2017-19 but has barely surfaced in the Majors since. He’s a .223/.261/.354 hitter in 797 MLB plate appearances.
  • Dee Strange-Gordon (34): The fact that the 2022 Nats gave Strange-Gordon 100 innings at shortstop for the first time since 2013 says more about the team than the player. The three-time NL steals champ hasn’t logged 100 plate appearances in a season since 2019. He hit .305 in 59 plate appearances this year but did so without a walk and with just two extra-base hits. Since 2018, he’s batted .268/.293/.343 in 1150 plate appearances.
  • Tyler Wade (28): Wade hit .264/.354/.328 in 145 plate appearances with the 2021 Yankees but has couldn’t duplicate it with the 2022 Angels. He’s a .214/.291/.298 hitter in the Majors but does have some defensive versatility to go along with a more palatable .279/.353/.408 slash in parts of four Triple-A seasons.

The Orioles’ First Key Offseason Decision

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The Orioles enter the offseason fresh off their first winning season since 2016. Baltimore’s surprisingly competitive year wasn’t enough to earn them the longshot playoff bid with which they flirted for a couple months, but they did snap a streak of four consecutive last place finishes during 162-game seasons.

For the first time in a while, the O’s head into the winter looking to build out a promising big league roster. Much of that lifting figures to be on the pitching staff, as Baltimore has broken in a number of players on an increasingly strong position player core. The starting rotation is the big question mark, as it was comprised mainly of unproven hurlers. The Orioles finished 21st in rotation ERA (4.35), and while the group was better at preventing runs in the second half of the season, it never featured impact high-strikeout arms.

Orioles general manager Mike Elias and his front office will surely add to that group this offseason, and the expected arrival of top prospect Grayson Rodriguez early next year will add a high-octane internal arm to the mix. Before considering upgrades, however, the Orioles will have to decide whether to retain their 2022 innings leader. Baltimore holds an $11MM option over right-hander Jordan Lyles. That comes with a $1MM buyout, leaving Elias and his staff with a net $10MM decision.

Lyles agreed to terms on a $7MM guarantee with the O’s in the waning seconds before last offseason’s lockout, finalizing the contract after the work stoppage. It was a somewhat surprising move by Baltimore, with Lyles coming off successive ERA’s of 7.02 and 5.15 during his two seasons with the Rangers. The O’s clearly valued his capacity to soak up innings at the back of a rotation, however, and he stepped back into that role in Baltimore.

The right-hander took all 32 starts through the rotation at Camden Yards, the only pitcher on the team to start more than 23 games. He tossed 179 innings, ranking 29th in the majors in that category. Lyles’ rate stats still weren’t great, but they did mark an improvement over his work in Texas. He posted a 4.42 ERA, striking out a below-average 18.6% of batters faced but only walking 6.7% of opponents. Home run issues that had plagued him in Arlington weren’t nearly as problematic in Baltimore.

It was presumably exactly the kind of performance the Orioles had hoped they’d receive when signing Lyles. The 4.42 ERA is his second-lowest mark over parts of 12 MLB seasons, while he just narrowly missed last year’s career high of 180 innings. A number of Baltimore’s younger pitchers raved throughout the season about Lyles’ clubhouse leadership. It’d have been hard for Elias and company to reasonably expect more from Lyles than what he seemingly provided both on the field and in the locker room.

Between those contributions and Baltimore’s need for rotation help, one can make a reasonable argument for keeping Lyles around. He’d be due a fairly modest raise over this year’s salary, but Elias has already indicated the Orioles plan to increase payroll. The GM pointed at an arbitration class that includes Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays as part of that spending hike, but there’ll still be a ton of room on next year’s books. Aside from the Lyles buyout, the only guaranteed commitment the O’s have for 2023 is a $2.975MM salary for John Means. Tendering contracts to all their arbitration-eligible players would add roughly $22.5MM, according to projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. That should still leave a lot of spending room for a team that, in Elias’ words, should “significantly escalate” payroll over this year’s roughly $44MM Opening Day mark.

Of course, one could argue for the O’s to use the extra $10MM to make a run at a more impactful starter than Lyles. Baltimore will enter next year with more realistic hopes at competing for a playoff spot than they did this past season. While Lyles did provide needed stability, his improved rate stats were still worse than average. The league average starter this year posted a 4.05 ERA with a 21.6% strikeout percentage, both a fair bit better than Lyles’ respective marks. He allowed hard contact at a higher-than-average clip for a fourth straight year.

Lyles also saw slight regression in his raw stuff. He lost a tick on his average fastball, which sat at 91.8 MPH after averaging 93 MPH last year. His breaking ball dipped over three ticks, from 83.3 MPH to 80 MPH. His swing-and-miss rates took a corresponding minor step back.

Free agency offers a number of mid-tier starting pitchers. Jameson Taillon, Mike Clevinger and Noah Syndergaard have all shown well in the past but didn’t post particularly impressive 2022 campaigns. Ross Stripling, José Quintana, Taijuan Walker (who’ll surely decline a $6MM player option with the Mets) and Michael Wacha fared well this year despite subpar strikeout rates, but each had an average or worse ’21 season. Johnny Cueto and Corey Kluber are former stars who each had productive seasons but will be limited to short-term deals based on their ages. There’d be various options for the Orioles to consider if they want to replace Lyles while signing a starter to a contract with an average annual value in the $10MM range, but most of that group would require a multi-year commitment. Whether to retain Lyles is the first major call Elias and his staff will have to make this winter, with option decisions required within five days of the end of the World Series.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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In conjunction with this post, Tim Dierkes held a Cubs-centric live chat on 10-18-22.  Read the transcript here.

The time has come for the Cubs to add significant talent, but are they willing to make long-term commitments?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Marcus Stroman, SP: $46MM through 2024.  Can opt out of remaining one year and $21MM after 2023 season
  • Jason Heyward, RF: $22MM through 2023
  • Kyle Hendricks, SP: $15.5MM through 2023.  Includes $16MM club option for 2024
  • Seiya Suzuki, RF: $73MM through 2026
  • Yan Gomes, C: $7MM through 2023.  Includes $6MM club option for 2024
  • David Bote, 3B: $10.5MM through 2024.  Includes $7MM club option for 2025 and $7.6MM club option for 2026

Total 2023 commitments: $92.5MM
Total future commitments: $181.5MM

Option Decisions

  • Drew Smyly, SP: $10MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parantheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The 2022 Cubs played to their low preseason expectations.  FanGraphs pegged them for 75 wins, and they won 74.  It was an assortment of players that seemed unlikely to contend, but could maybe hang on the fringes of playoff contention.

As it turned out, the Cubs posted an abysmal 35-57 first half and were out of contention very quickly, but salvaged their record and created optimism in some quarters with a 39-31 second half.  How much of that success is sustainable, and who will president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer pursue this winter to turn this team into a contender?

The rotation posted a 2.89 ERA in the second half, which ranked third in baseball.  This fact was touted by owner Tom Ricketts in his annual letter to fans, so it’s worth a deeper look.  One stat that jumps out is the rotation’s MLB-best 80.1% left-on-base percentage in the second half.  Coupled with a below-average strikeout rate, there’s little indication the Cubs’ starting pitchers are actually skilled at stranding baserunners.

Eight Cubs pitchers made four or more starts in the second half.  Two of them, Drew Smyly and Wade Miley, are headed toward free agency.  The remaining six: Marcus Stroman, Adrian Sampson, Justin Steele, Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, and Keegan Thompson.

Stroman dealt with COVID-19 and shoulder inflammation early this year, but was excellent in 16 starts to close out his season.  While the veteran serves as the Cubs’ nominal ace heading into his age-32 campaign, he’s also likely to opt out of the remaining $21MM on his contract with a solid 2023.  Stroman is a good player to have for ’23, but he’ll essentially be in a contract year and thus isn’t a long-term piece.

As for Smyly, the Cubs are expected to talk to his agent this month about a new contract, according to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times.  If the Cubs were to sign Smyly to a two-year deal, it’d cover his age 34-35 seasons.  Smyly’s 22 starts this year went about as well as could be expected, and the temptation to lock in a veteran for next year is understandable.  Smyly did miss all of June with an oblique strain, and battled shoulder fatigue in the season’s final two weeks.  This year’s 106 1/3 innings is about all a team can expect from him.  Even cherry-picking to leave out April and September, Smyly still averaged fewer than five innings per start.  He had a below-average strikeout rate, too, instead succeeding based on a low walk rate and weak contact.  There may be some recency bias at play here in the expectation that Smyly’s modest 2022 success will continue.

The Cubs did turn up a pair of interesting, under-30 potential long-term rotation pieces in the second half: Justin Steele and Hayden Wesneski.  Steele, a 27-year-old southpaw, closed out his season with a run of 14 starts featured a sparkling 2.05 ERA and solid 16 K-BB%.  For a two-month span, Steele looked, at least, like one of the 20 best pitchers in the game.  He missed all of September due to a back injury, so the next step in his development will be to increase his innings beyond this year’s 119.

Wesneski, 25 in December, came via a shrewd one-for-one trade with the Yankees for reliever Scott Effross.  Wesneski posted an excellent 2.18 ERA in 33 innings with the peripherals to match, but it was only 33 innings and his 5.3% walk rate in the Majors is likely unsustainable.

At present the Cubs can really only write Stroman and Steele into their 2023 rotation.  World Series hero Kyle Hendricks has at least one year left on his contract, but his season ended in July due to a capsular tear in his right shoulder.  The Cubs can hope for a return to form, but can’t count on Hendricks.  Of the other rotation candidates, Sampson and Assad had the best results, combining for a 3.19 ERA in 27 starts.  Neither had the peripheral stats to back up an ERA below 4.50.  The bottom line is that a competitive 2023 team will need to add at least two starting pitchers this winter.  Even if one of them is Smyly, who else might the Cubs consider?

Asked about adding a top of the rotation starter – which the Cubs obviously need – Hoyer replied, “I think it’s important that we continue to add quality innings.  We’re actively looking for quality innings, pitchers we feel like we can work with and potentially make better.”  To me, this is mostly classic GM-speak that doesn’t reveal much about offseason plans, though Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports feels Hoyer’s comment suggests sights set somewhere below one of the best pitchers on the free agent market, Carlos Rodon.

I believe the Cubs are committed to avoiding risky contracts, and wouldn’t take the plunge on a starter like Rodon unless, like Stroman, he could somehow be landed on a three-year deal.  While I agree with the speculation that Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom are unlikely to join the 2023 Cubs, I think the market is rife with opportunities for good pitchers who can be had with commitments of three or fewer years.  And keep in mind, the three-year limitation is only my speculation.

It’s easy to see the Cubs focusing some interest on older but recently-effective starters who shouldn’t require excessive years: Tyler Anderson, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Jameson Taillon are a few who come to mind.  It’s also easy to see Hoyer turning back to Japan for Kodai Senga, who turns 30 in January and just posted a 1.89 ERA in 148 innings for the Softbank Hawks.  A four-year deal for Senga at an AAV below that of the typical MLB-experienced free agent ace could be possible.  Zach Eflin could be another name to watch, as the soon-to-be free agent righty doesn’t turn 29 until April.  The Cubs could pursue Shane Bieber or Pablo Lopez via trade, and that market always includes a few surprises every winter.  If Shohei Ohtani is made available, the Cubs would have to at least gauge the asking price and consider converting some of their prospect capital into the superstar they’re lacking.

Turning to the bullpen, the Cubs were relying on Brandon Hughes, Manny Rodriguez, Mark Leiter Jr., Adbert Alzolay, and Keegan Thompson in high leverage situations in the season’s final month.  That was necessitated by the club’s veteran bullpen purge, which saw David Robertson, Mychal Givens, Chris Martin, and Effross sent packing in trades.  It seems likely Hoyer will continue deploying his strategy of one-year deals for veteran free agent relievers, with the specific names impossible to predict.

On the position player side, the Cubs seem content with Happ and Suzuki at the corners again next year.  While neither fit the profile as a middle of the order masher, both outfielders posted offensive numbers at least 16% better than league average.  At 3.5 WAR, Happ put together the best season of his career in 2022, and the Cubs will at least explore an extension.  My guess is that Happ won’t be retained long-term, with prospects Brennen Davis and Alexander Canario near MLB-ready.

The Cubs gave most of their center field reps to Christopher Morel and Rafael Ortega in 2022.  While Morel had a solid rookie season overall, there’s a good chance the Cubs will look outside the organization for short-term help in center.  A one-year deal for Cody Bellinger (who’s likely to be non-tendered by the Dodgers) could be interesting, or the Cubs could take a more defense-minded approach with Kevin Kiermaier.  Long-term, the Cubs will likely keep center field open for top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong, who finished 2022 at High-A.

The Cubs surprisingly held on to catcher Willson Contreras at the trade deadline this year, presumably because they felt the offers were worse than the draft pick they would receive if he turns down a qualifying offer.  That pick would be between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 in next summer’s draft.  Contreras, 31 in May, will likely seek a four or five-year deal in free agency, and the Cubs have not seemed interested in hammering something out to retain their longtime backstop.

A Contreras departure would leave the Cubs reliant on Yan Gomes and P.J. Higgins behind the plate.  Prospect Miguel Amaya is recovering from injuries and has yet to play above Double-A, but could be a factor for the Cubs in the second half.  The free agent market features a typical array of veteran catchers, and there’s a decent chance the Cubs will sign one to bolster their depth.

Alfonso Rivas, 26, led the Cubs in defensive innings at first base.  He managed just an 82 wRC+ in 287 plate appearances.  The Cubs released Frank Schwindel in September, and simply don’t have much at the position.  Much of their DH time went to Franmil Reyes, Contreras, and Schwindel.  Reyes posted a 94 wRC+ in 193 plate appearances for the Cubs after being claimed off waivers from the Guardians, and the team may choose not to tender him a contract and instead keep their options open.

This leaves the Cubs hurting for offense at two traditionally easier-to-fill positions in first base and DH.  The ship may have sailed on Anthony Rizzo even if he does opt out of his Yankees contract, but free agency offers names like Jose Abreu, Brandon Belt, J.D. Martinez, Matt Carpenter, and Michael Brantley.  The Cubs may also find some at-bats for Matt Mervis, who would be a 25-year-old rookie next year and had a huge 2022 with the bat as he ascended from High-A to Triple-A.

The Cubs could also look to upgrade at third base, after a 1.1 WAR season from Patrick Wisdom.  Wisdom, who has also played some first base and left field, could still stick around as a lefty-masher.  If Nolan Arenado doesn’t reach free agency, the third base market looks thin.  Names like Brandon Drury or Evan Longoria could be in play.

Nico Hoerner’s breakout 4-WAR 2022 campaign affords the Cubs some intriguing possibilities.  The first could be an extension for Hoerner, perhaps with J.P. Crawford’s four-year, $46.15MM extension serving as a guidepost.  Though Hoerner logged almost all of his innings at shortstop this year and got above-average defensive marks, the Cubs have signaled a willingness to move him to second base next year.  That could make playing time hard to come by for Nick Madrigal, but the 25-year-old contact specialist put up just a 70 wRC+ in 228 plate appearances this year.

Speculation has been heavy on the possibility of the Cubs signing one of the four big free agent shortstops: Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, or Carlos Correa.  Owner Tom Ricketts did nothing to dispel that notion, saying in his letter to fans, “We will be active in free agency and have the necessary resources available to substantially supplement our current roster.”  Hoyer told reporters, “I have total confidence — if we get to a place where we ask for a significant amount of money to sign one player or several players — that we’ll have his blessing. And I have no doubt the resources will be there.”

Hoyer has also been known to talk about “intelligent” spending.  He elaborated recently, “To me, intelligent spending involves making decisions that make sense for the 2023 season but also aren’t going to hinder what we’re trying to build. The nature of baseball contracts is challenging that way. We’ve all seen contracts of certain lengths that can really bog a team down. It’s easy to talk about the player you’re acquiring, but if that contract ends up hindering the ultimate goal here, which is to build something special and sustainable and lasting, then it wasn’t a good transaction.”

Regret set in pretty quickly for the Cubs’ last two $100MM deals.  With Jason Heyward’s eight-year, $184MM deal, he simply never hit as the Cubs expected, and Hoyer told reporters in August that the club will release him and eat the $22MM remaining on his contract for 2023.  Darvish was traded for prospects halfway through his six-year deal.  Heyward’s contract, in particular, contributed to the Ricketts family keeping the checkbook closed after the 2018 and ’19 seasons.

We at MLBTR are still deliberating our free agent contract projections, but all of the big four shortstops figure to hit the market seeking seven or eight-year deals. Bogaerts, Turner, Swanson, and Correa were born within a two-year span of each other.  Bogaerts, the oldest, recently turned 30.  Correa, the youngest, just celebrated his 28th birthday.  That gap may not seem like much, but the Cubs are clearly worried about entering another long-term deal they’ll quickly regret.  That’s why I could see some favor for Correa, who could sign a seven-year deal that would still only take him through age 34.

Considering likely non-tenders, the Cubs appear to have about $107MM tied up for a dozen players in 2023, including Heyward’s money.  Assuming Stroman opts out after ’23, the Cubs have a mere two players under contract for 2024 with Suzuki making $20MM and Bote at $5.5MM.  The initial competitive balance tax thresholds are set at $233MM in 2023 and $237MM in 2024.  The Cubs, in one of the country’s largest markets, are currently $217MM below the first CBT threshold for 2024 if Stroman opts out.

There are no players the Cubs can’t afford, up to and including Aaron Judge.  But with Judge turning 31 in April and looking to be paid through age-38 and beyond – and with the Cubs’ outfield in decent long-term shape – he seems an unlikely target.

The Cubs are not remotely close to the CBT.  While teams have stopped paying top free agents through age 41, as the Angels did with Albert Pujols a decade ago, paying stars through age 37 is still often the only way to get them.  And even deals for the youngest of free agents can go bust; it’s hard to find a free agent younger than the 26 Heyward was when the Cubs signed him.

The Cubs outspent expectations last winter with over $200MM in commitments, yet still avoided the leap of faith required to sign the top players on the market.  With the payroll looking increasingly clear and two rebuilding seasons in the rearview, we’ll find out soon how far the Cubs are willing to go.

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