Poll: Will Anything Shake Up The NL Playoff Picture?
The playoff race in the American League figures to be a photo finish, with the AL East and AL West division titles both still up for grabs and four teams not currently in a postseason spot still within three games of the final AL Wild Card spot. By contrast, the National League looks very stable. Two of the league’s three division leaders have a lead of more than five games, and zero teams not already in the playoff picture are within three games of the final NL Wild Card spot. With just over 20 games left to play for every team, does that mean the NL playoff teams are set in stone? Let’s take a look at the state of the race:
The one place where the NL is within three games of a meaningful shift is the NL West, where the Dodgers hold a 2.5 game lead over the Padres. That division has been something of a dogfight for the whole second half. While the Dodgers were nine games up on their competition just two months ago, strong play from the Padres in conjunction with an aggressive trade deadline that saw the club bring in Mason Miller, Ramon Laureano, and Ryan O’Hearn (among others) was enough to push them back into contention. They even claimed sole possession of first place in the division twice during the month of August, though both of those stays at the top of the mountain were short-lived.
While it wasn’t long ago that the Padres were right there with the Dodgers in the NL West race, it’s becoming difficult to see them overtaking their rivals. A 7-12 record since Los Angeles kicked off a three-game sweep of San Diego on August 15 has left the Padres flailing, and while the Dodgers have gone just 7-8 since that series concluded, there are no regular season contests remaining between the two clubs during which the Padres can make up significant ground. If there’s one thing going for San Diego in this race, it’s the strength of the club’s schedule. Ten games left against the Rockies and White Sox should leave a huge number of winnable games for the Padres to capitalize on, while L.A. is faced with seven games against the surging Giants and a three-game set with the Phillies before wrapping the regular season in Seattle.
Speaking of the Giants, they’ve sneakily gone 9-1 in their last ten games and have won each of their last four series. With 7.5 games separating them and the Dodgers, they’d need to do exceptionally well in those final two series against Los Angeles to have any sort of shot at forcing their way back into the conversation for the division title. San Francisco’s surge could realistically put them into the NL Wild Card conversation if things continue trending in the right direction, however. Aside from those aforementioned seven games against the Dodgers, the Giants face sub-.500 teams in their other 15 games remaining on the schedule.
That could be a soft enough schedule to provide some intrigue headed into the season’s final weeks, though the 71-70 Giants certainly have their work cut out for them. The Reds sit one game back of them with a 70-70 record, but arguably have more control over their own destiny than San Francisco does thanks to back-to-back series against the Mets and Padres over the course of the next week. Winning both of those series would more seriously put Cincinnati in the conversation for a playoff berth, but that could prove to be a tall order. The Cardinals and Diamondbacks are both lurking around the periphery of the race as well, but with identical 70-71 records and exceptionally tough schedules this September, it’s tough to see either club mounting a comeback.
As for the other two divisions, the Phillies and Brewers more or less appear to have their divisions wrapped up at this point with 5.5- and 6.0-game leads, respectively. Perhaps the Phillies dropping their four-game set against the Mets in Philadelphia next week could reintroduce some intrigue into that race, but with the Cubs/Brewers season wrapped up and a soft September schedule in Milwaukee it would take a shocking collapse for the Brew Crew to fall out of the top spot in the NL Central.
What do MLBTR readers think about the state of the NL playoff race? Will any of the division titles change hands by the time the regular season comes to a close? Will a team like the Giants or Reds manage to worm their way into a postseason spot? Or will the playoff picture look more or less identical to today when the season comes to a close? Have your say in the polls below:
Will Any Of The Division Leaders In The NL Change By The End Of The Regular Season?
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No 68% (1,448)
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Yes 32% (690)
Total votes: 2,138
How Will The NL Wild Card Race Shake Out?
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The teams currently in playoff position will hold onto their spots. 64% (1,577)
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The Giants will make the playoffs. 20% (494)
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The Reds will make the playoffs. 10% (249)
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Another team will make the playoffs. 6% (141)
Total votes: 2,461
Trevor Rogers’ Reemergence
At the 2024 trade deadline, the Orioles traded upper minors hitters Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby to the Marlins for reclamation starter Trevor Rogers. Many perceived it as an overpay, and the deal immediately went south. Rogers, who was carrying a 4.53 ERA for Miami, allowed 16 runs in 19 innings over his first four starts with the Orioles. Baltimore optioned him to Triple-A within three weeks and he was a non-factor for a postseason bound club.
This season didn't start out any better. Rogers began the year on the injured list with a right knee subluxation. Baltimore optioned him back to Triple-A when he was healthy. Outside of one strong spot start on May 24, the 6'5" lefty wasn't on the radar into the middle of June. Baltimore's big league rotation -- which was without Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish and Zach Eflin -- pitched so poorly that their season was more or less finished by the time they recalled Rogers on June 18.
Stowers added insult to injury by carrying Miami's lineup with a pair of power barrages in April and July. He's streaky but now looks like the Marlins' best position player. Even if Norby doesn't work out, Miami is thrilled with their end of the deal. As recently as the middle of June, it looked like a complete bust for Baltimore. It wasn't a lock they'd even tender Rogers a contract for his final season of arbitration.
Two months later, Rogers is the favorite to be on the Camden Yards mound for Opening Day 2026. He had a rocky first start after being recalled, giving up three runs without escaping the third inning against Tampa Bay. He has taken the ball 12 times since then and been the best pitcher in baseball.
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Poll: Can The Astros Hold On To Win The AL West?
Fangraphs gives each current division leader at least a 60% chance of maintaining that lead through the end of the regular season, per their latest playoff odds. Not all of those chances are equal, however, and two division leaders are far less likely to hold onto their title than the rest.
One is the Blue Jays, who around 45% of MLBTR readers view as likely to hold onto the division as of yesterday’s poll. The other is the Astros, who took control of the division off the back of a dominant 19-7 month of June but since then have struggled to keep pace. They’re 26-29 since the start of July and 16-21 since July 24. Houston’s managed to fend off the Mariners and Rangers in the AL West until now, however, and actually has a larger lead (three games) over Seattle now than they did in mid-August, when they were briefly tied for the division lead at one point.
That rebound in recent weeks has helped them stay afloat, but there’s still cause for concern. What was once a dominant front two in the rotation has now dropped to one; while Hunter Brown is still excelling amid a campaign that’s likely to earn him legitimate consideration for the Cy Young award, Framber Valdez is struggling badly of late with an ERA north of 6.00 since the start of August. The bullpen took a major hit when Josh Hader was sidelined by a sprained shoulder, and the lineup simply isn’t scoring enough runs. The Astros are 29th in the majors since the start of August when it comes to runs scored, and 21st since the start of July. Cam Smith hasn’t sustained his strong start to the year, Isaac Paredes and Jake Meyers are on the injured list, and Jeremy Pena is no longer hitting like a potential MVP candidate.
All of those flaws in the roster have left Houston vulnerable, and their +14 run differential is not just lower than those of the Mariners and Rangers, it’s the lowest of any team currently in playoff position. With six games against Texas and three more against Seattle still on the schedule for September, they’ll need to duke it out with those teams outright in order to hold onto the division. That provides an opportunity for those clubs to make up a lot of ground in a relatively short amount of time. And with the toughest strength of schedule remaining in the division, Houston can’t necessarily bank on cleaning up against weaker teams in their other games.
All of that may make it seem as though the Astros have their work cut out for them if they want to hold onto their lead in the AL West. While that could certainly be true, it’s not as if they don’t also have significant advantages working in their favor. For one thing, much of that rough injury luck has been balanced out by other players returning. Yordan Alvarez and Cristian Javier, in particular, figure to be impactful pieces for Houston down the stretch. And while players like Smith and Pena have cooled off to varying degrees, Jose Altuve and Christian Walker have turned back the clock in the second half after tough starts to the season. Carlos Correa is already hitting better now that he’s back in Houston than he had been in Minnesota, and perhaps a veteran core of Altuve, Walker, Correa, and Alvarez will be able to turn things around for the offense over the season’s final month.
The other thing working in Houston’s favor is the reality that Seattle and Texas aren’t exactly behemoths, either. While the Mariners lineup has put up respectable numbers led by Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, and Randy Arozarena, their vaunted starting rotation has looked much more vulnerable this season than in previous years. They’ll get help from a flimsy schedule that pits them against the likes of St. Louis, Colorado, and Atlanta over the season’s final weeks, but without George Kirby and Logan Gilbert posting better numbers than their league-average season figures, that might not be enough. As for the Rangers, injuries to Nathan Eovaldi, Marcus Semien, and Corey Seager have dismantled the team’s veteran core for the foreseeable future. The losses of Semien and Seager, in particular, are forcing them to rely on a far less reliable group of position players for the stretch run as they look to take advantage of their aforementioned six games against the Astros this month.
How do MLBTR readers view Houston’s odds of making it to October with the AL West crown in hand? Will their veteran core be able to score enough runs going forward, or will the Mariners or perhaps even the Rangers sneak in to take over? Have your say in the poll below:
Will the Astros win the AL West?
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Yes 58% (1,951)
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No 42% (1,424)
Total votes: 3,375
Poll: Who Will Win The AL East?
We’re into the final weeks of the season now, but a handful of postseason races are still up for grabs. Perhaps the most competitive division at this point is the AL East, which is the only division where three teams still have at least a 10% chance of taking home the crown according to Fangraphs. Who will ultimately emerge victorious? Here’s a look at each of the three teams, listed in order of their winning percentage entering play today:
Toronto Blue Jays (79-59)
The Jays took the lead in the division on July 3 and haven’t relinquished it since. It’s not hard to see why they’ve been successful. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. isn’t having the sort of superlative, MVP-level campaign he posted in 2024 but remains an anchor for the lineup with 21 homers, 30 doubles, and a .383 on-base percentage. George Springer has enjoyed a resurgent season at the age of 35, slashing an outstanding .300/.391/.533 in 116 games. Bo Bichette (130 wRC+) is back to his normal self after last year’s injury-ruined season. Alejandro Kirk (118 wRC+) is making good on his extension with the club by putting up his best season since 2022. Daulton Varsho has 16 homers in 49 games despite dealing with injuries, and even less-established hitters like Nathan Lukes, Addison Barger, and Davis Schneider have put up strong numbers at the dish.
While so much has gone right for the Jays on offense, it must be noted that things haven’t gone as well when it comes to pitching. Kevin Gausman looks like the steady and playoff-caliber veteran he’s been for years now, but the rest of the rotation comes with questions. Toronto was reaping the benefits of Max Scherzer turning back the clock for a few weeks, but the future Hall of Famer just delivered back-to-back clunkers against the Twins and Brewers. Eric Lauer was pitching well but was sent to the bullpen after posting a 5.30 ERA in August. Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios are stable veterans, but they fit better at the back of the rotation than starting Games 2 and 3 of a playoff series. The bullpen has struggled somewhat as well, with closer Jeff Hoffman scuffling to a 5.02 ERA on the season and a 5.32 ERA since the start of July. Those pitching woes have led the Jays’ lead in the division to slip from five games a week ago to 2.5 games. Will they be able to stop the bleeding and secure a division title?
New York Yankees (76-61)
Just a couple of weeks ago, the Bronx Bombers looked to be in a more dire position after losing five straight to the Marlins and Rangers before dropping three games in a row to the Red Sox. They rebounded from those losses to Boston by picking up the final game of that series, however, and that win started a seven-game streak that only just ended with a close loss to the White Sox over the weekend. While nice performances from players like Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. have been helpful for the Yanks this season, their success can be overwhelmingly attributed to Aaron Judge.
The reigning AL MVP has put together another season for the ages (196 wRC+), and it’s largely thanks to him that the club has been able to hang in the postseason race despite a disappointing season from Anthony Volpe and Paul Goldschmidt‘s second-half struggles. Of course, Judge has been recovering from a flexor strain that’s seemingly impacted him at the plate and kept him from playing the field. That’s pushed Giancarlo Stanton‘s strong bat out of the lineup on some days and forced his subpar glove into the outfield on the rest. A leaky bullpen hasn’t helped, though the starting rotation is looking better now that Max Fried appears to be getting back on track after a rough patch. One other thing working in New York’s favor is the schedule; they’ll face the last-place Orioles and White Sox in their final 10 games of the season.
Boston Red Sox (77-62)
The Red Sox have worked their way back from the malaise they faced towards the end of the Rafael Devers era to make themselves legitimate playoff contenders. Unlike the other two AL East clubs, it’s been the pitching leading the way. Garrett Crochet is in the conversation for best pitcher in baseball this year, and both Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito have looked the part of playoff starters. It’s arguably been a career year for veteran closer Aroldis Chapman, and Garrett Whitlock has excelled in a setup role. Top prospect Payton Tolle has been called up for the stretch.
While Boston’s pitching staff is impressive, they’re held back a bit by an offense that doesn’t quite measure up. Roman Anthony already looks like a star, but the rest of the lineup has lacked consistency. Alex Bregman is slumping since the start of August, Wilyer Abreu is on the injured list, and Ceddanne Rafaela has struggled badly since the All-Star break. Trevor Story started slow but has been great since June. Romy Gonzalez has tattooed lefties but been sub-par versus righties. Boston’s 24-17 record since the All-Star break is still encouraging though, and if Abreu comes back healthy and/or Bregman turns things around, the lineup would look more formidable.
Each of the three remaining contenders for the AL East title have one series against each other left in September. Who do MLBTR readers think will come out on top? Will the Blue Jays hold on despite their pitching woes? Can Judge lead the Yankees back to the top of the division? Or will the Red Sox offense turn things around to support their excellent pitching? Have your say in the poll below:
Who will win the AL East?
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Toronto Blue Jays 46% (3,225)
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Boston Red Sox 28% (1,993)
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New York Yankees 26% (1,829)
Total votes: 7,047
Every Team’s September 1 Call-Ups
As is the case each September 1, there’s been plenty of roster movement today. Active rosters expand from 26 to 28, allowing most teams to bring up one additional pitcher and position player apiece. A summation of every team’s call-ups from a busy Monday:
AL East
- Blue Jays: INF Isiah Kiner-Falefa (claimed off waivers), RHP Dillon Tate
- Orioles: C Maverick Handley, RHP Albert Suárez (activated from injured list)
- Rays: RHP Kevin Kelly, OF Richie Palacios (activated from injured list)
- Red Sox: RHP Zack Kelly, C Ali Sánchez
- Yankees: C J.C. Escarra, LHP Ryan Yarbrough (activated from injured list)
AL Central
- Guardians: RHP Zak Kent, OF Jhonkensy Noel, OF George Valera; also optioned IF Will Wilson
- Royals: RHP Luinder Avila, 1B Jac Caglianone (activated from injured list), C Carter Jensen; also placed 2B Jonathan India on injured list
- Tigers: RHP Chase Lee, OF Justyn-Henry Malloy
- Twins: RHP Travis Adams, RHP Noah Davis, OF DaShawn Keirsey Jr.; also optioned RHP Mick Abel
- White Sox: LHP Fraser Ellard, IF Bryan Ramos (expected to promote RHP Mike Clevinger this week)
AL West
- A’s: RHP Scott McGough, IF Max Schuemann, RHP Luis Severino (activated from injured list); also optioned RHP Eduarniel Nuñez
- Angels: LHP Mitch Farris, IF Scott Kingery, IF Chris Taylor (activated from injured list); also optioned IF Christian Moore
- Astros: RHP Luis Garcia, OF Taylor Trammell (both players activated from injured list)
- Mariners: C Harry Ford, RHP Luke Jackson, INF Leo Rivas; also released IF Donovan Solano
- Rangers: IF Jake Burger, RHP Chris Martin (both players activated from injured list)
NL East
- Braves: RHP Rolddy Muñoz, INF Luke Williams (activated from injured list)*
- Marlins: RHP Luarbert Arias, C Brian Navarreto, RHP Michael Petersen; also placed RHP Edward Cabrera on injured list
- Mets: IF Luisangel Acuña, RHP Justin Hagenman
- Nationals: LHP Andrew Alvarez, IF Nasim Nuñez
- Phillies: LHP Tim Mayza (claimed off waivers), C Garrett Stubbs
NL Central
- Brewers: SS Joey Ortiz (activated from injured list), RHP Craig Yoho
- Cardinals: RHP Chris Roycroft, OF Victor Scott II (activated from injured list)
- Cubs: OF Kevin Alcántara, RHP Aaron Civale (free agent signee), 1B Carlos Santana (free agent signee); also optioned OF Owen Caissie
- Pirates: RHP Cam Sanders, 2B Nick Yorke
- Reds: IF Sal Stewart, RHP Yosver Zulueta
NL West
- Diamondbacks: OF Jorge Barrosa, RHP Ryan Thompson (activated from injured list)
- Dodgers: INF Hyeseong Kim, RHP Michael Kopech (both players activated from injured list)
- Giants: RHP JT Brubaker, OF Grant McCray
- Padres: OF Jackson Merrill (activated from injured list), RHP Sean Reynolds
- Rockies: LHP Ryan Rolison, C Drew Romo
* Atlanta’s waiver claim of Ha-Seong Kim, while the most significant move of the day, isn’t counted here because Kim is currently on the 10-day injured list
Poll: Will Anyone Get To 60 Home Runs This Year?
It’s been a great year for power hitters in MLB, as five different players slugged their 40th home run of the season before the end of August. It’s not often that so many hitters enter September with a realistic shot at the lofty threshold of 60 home runs in a season. It’s a feat that’s only been accomplished nine times, and the combination of Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire account for five of those nine 60-homer seasons. Of course, it’s an incredibly rare feat for a reason, and many promising campaigns fall short in the season’s final month. 12 seasons with between 56 and 59 home runs have been logged throughout MLB history, after all.
Will this year’s biggest power threats join that club of also-ran seasons, or will we see the tenth 60-homer season in MLB history come to fruition this year? Here’s a look at each of the top home run hitters from this season and their chances of reaching that illustrious 60-homer plateau, in order of their current home run totals for 2025:
While everyone else on this list hit their 40th homer of the season in August, Raleigh’s 40th home run was actually slugged on July 26. The Mariners’ catcher has had a historic season this year, setting the all-time single season home run record for a catcher while sitting just four behind Mickey Mantle for the all-time single season record for home runs by a switch hitter. With 50 homers tallied so far this year, it’s hard not to see why Raleigh could have a very real shot at hitting 60 home runs this season. He’s hit at least ten homers in three of the season’s five months so far, and has never hit less than eight in a month this year. With that being said, it’s also worth noting that Raleigh has slowed down a bit in the second half of the season. In 40 games since the All-Star break, Raleigh has posted just a 112 wRC+ with 12 home runs. With just 25 games left to play on the Mariners’ schedule, he’ll need to pick up the pace if he’s going to reach 60 homers this year.
Schwarber is just one homer back of Raleigh in the race for the MLB home run lead after an incredible four-home run performance on August 28. Schwarber has long been one of the game’s premiere power threats and, like Raleigh, has hit at least 10 homers in three of this season’s five months so far. He’ll need to hit 11 in 25 September games in order to reach 60 homers, but one thing working in his favor is that he’s saved most of his power for the second half this year. He’s hit 12 home runs in both July and August, so if he can put up just one more month like the last two, he’ll get there. Of course, a player slugging .655 over his past 52 games also runs the risk of getting pitched around, which could damage Schwarber’s chances of making it to 60. One thing that could work in Schwarber’s favor is his home ballpark, as Statcast considers Citizens Bank Park to be the fifth-most homer friendly stadium in the majors this year.
With three MVP awards in the past four years, no one should put anything past baseball’s two-way superstar. Ohtani became the first player to go 50-50 last season, and with 54 homers tied with Mantle (and seven other seasons) at 22nd on the single-season home run leaderboard. With 45 home runs headed into September, he has an outside shot at not only breaking that personal record, but getting a coveted 60-homer season. 15 home runs in a single month is a tall order for any player, but Ohtani did exactly that back in May when he crushed 15 long balls in 27 games. The Dodgers have two fewer games than that in September, but Ohtani will benefit from playing his home games at Dodger Stadium, which is far and away the most homer-friendly ballpark in the majors this year per Statcast.
Aaron Judge hit his 43rd home run of the season yesterday, and that makes it a tall order for him to reach 60 homers this season. With that being said, onlookers around the game should know better than to doubt the hulking slugger’s offensive abilities at this point, with MVP wins in two of the last three seasons and a completely absurd 202 wRC+ since the start of the 2022 season. Judge is also, of course, the only active player who’s already a member of the 60 home run club after bashing 62 long balls to take the AL home run record from Roger Maris during his 2022 AL MVP campaign. Judge finished just short with 58 home runs last year, but perhaps this year will be different. In order to reach 60 on the season, Judge will need to make a different kind of history: as noted by Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com last year, the record for home runs hit in September (and October, in seasons where it hosts regular season games) belongs jointly to Albert Belle and Babe Ruth. Judge would need to at least tie that duo’s 17 homers in the final month of the year in order to crack 60 long balls this year.
What do MLBTR readers think? Will the league enjoy a 60-homer campaign for the second time in four years this season? And if so, who is most likely to pull it off? Have your say in the polls below:
Will there be a 60 homer season in 2025?
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No 59% (2,782)
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Yes 41% (1,920)
Total votes: 4,702
If someone WERE to hit 60 home runs this year, who would it be?
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Cal Raleigh 44% (2,001)
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Kyle Schwarber 43% (1,928)
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Aaron Judge 8% (341)
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Shohei Ohtani 6% (264)
Total votes: 4,534
The Nationals Need To Lean Further Into Their Rebuild
This wasn't how the Nationals hoped their rebuild would play out. When now-former GM Mike Rizzo traded Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers back in 2021, the hope was that dismantling a stacked roster could lead to an accelerated turnaround. In the span of just over a calendar year, Washington traded Scherzer, Turner and Juan Soto, in addition to short-term veterans like Kyle Schwarber, Jon Lester, Brad Hand, Yan Gomes, Daniel Hudson, Josh Harrison, Josh Bell, Jeimer Candelario, Dylan Floro and Hunter Harvey.
It obviously takes years to fully evaluate the extent of any given trade, but it's more than fair to say the slate of moves largely hasn't panned out. Rizzo's return for Soto/Bell has been terrific, with the Nats netting James Wood, MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Robert Hassell III and Jarlin Susana. The first four are current big leaguers -- the first three are stars or close to it -- and Susana is now a consensus top-100 pitching prospect. The trade of Lester brought back Lane Thomas, who was a solid regular for a few years before being traded to Cleveland last summer in a deal that netted the Nats current big league infielder Jose Tena and left-hander Alex Clemmey -- currently their No. 3 prospect at Baseball America. It's a nice return for one-plus seasons of Thomas.
The rest of the Nationals' haul, however, hasn't really panned out. Washington doesn't have any above-average regulars to show for the rest of that slate of trades. If they'd focused squarely on low-level minor leaguers who were still bubbling up to the top of a stacked farm system, that'd be one thing .... but it's not the case. Washington's farm system ranks 21st in the majors, per Baseball America, and that's after benefiting from the No. 1 pick in this summer's draft. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel ranks their farm 22nd. The MLB.com team ranks them 23rd. For a last place team that's been rebuilding for more than four years, that's not sufficient.
Let's dive into what the Nats received from that group of trades, what critical decisions lie ahead in the offseason, and how boldly they could act in order to turn things around.
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Poll: AL Cy Young Race Check-In
While a few of this season’s awards don’t appear to be terribly competitive headed into the final month of the season, one race that still appears to be wide open is that for the AL Cy Young award. MLBTR last checked in on the race back in June, at which point Tigers ace Tarik Skubal was viewed as the heavy favorite to capture his second consecutive Cy Young, with nearly 46% of the vote and nearly double second place finisher’s total.
Skubal is still a strong contender for the award, of course, and perhaps even the favorite. Through 26 starts this year, the southpaw has logged 166 innings of 2.28 ERA ball. He’s struck out 33.5% of his opponents with a phenomenal 3.9% walk rate, giving him the best K-BB% in baseball this year. That mix of strikeout stuff and pinpoint command is Skubal’s bread and butter, as his other metrics this year have been closer to average than exceptional. His ground ball rate is a cromulent 40.7% this year, and his 8.7% barrel rate ranks 15th among 30 qualified AL hurlers. Skubal’s last start was an unusual one, as he surrendered six runs in 6 2/3 innings of work but only one of those six runs was considered earned. Even with those five runs not countered against his ledger, he’s posted a 3.05 ERA and 3.55 FIP in the month of August. That performance is strong but not quite on the level of some other contenders.
While Skubal’s numbers haven’t changed too drastically since June, he’s found a rival for his position as the AL’s best lefty strikeout artist in the form of Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet. The 26-year-old has more or less matched Skubal in virtually every stat. He had 166 1/3 innings of work to Skubal’s aforementioned 166 through 26 starts, though Crochet’s six-innings of two-run ball against the Orioles yesterday pushed his total up to 172 1/3. His 2.40 ERA is within spitting distance of Skubal’s own figure, and his 31.1% strikeout rate is just a couple of points behind. Where he falls more significantly behind Skubal is his walk rate, as he’s allowed free passes at a 6.1% clip.
He makes up for the gap in K-BB% somewhat with stronger batted ball numbers, however. He’s generating grounders at a 48.5% clip, and his 7.2% barrel rate is the sixth-best figure in the AL. For those inclined towards more traditional metrics, Crochet also sports an AL-best 14 wins on his record. Crochet’s 3.19 ERA in August didn’t separate him from Skubal significantly, but his peripherals (including a 2.96 FIP) are significantly better over that span. If he can turn those peripherals into production in September, perhaps that will be enough to separate himself from Skubal.
Of course, Crochet and Skubal aren’t the only two options to consider. Astros right-hander Hunter Brown is in the midst of a breakout season that deserves serious consideration. Through 26 starts, Brown’s 155 2/3 innings of work lag behind the totals of the two lefties, but his numbers are undeniably impressive. He’s posted a 2.37 ERA with a 46.0% ground ball rate and a 29.1% strikeout rate. Brown’s 6.1% barrel rate is the second-best figure in the AL this year, though he’s held back somewhat by his 7.6% walk rate.
When looking at Brown’s recent work, it’s something of a mixed bag. His 1.71 ERA in August is obviously fantastic, but it comes with an asterisk after he allowed four unearned runs in his most recent start. His 22.2% strikeout rate is also far below his typical norms, but his 2.71 FIP is nothing short of excellent. Brown seems to be a step behind both Skubal and Crochet at this point, but it’s easy to imagine him pushing himself more firmly into the conversation with a strong September.
Brown, Skubal, and Crochet seem like the top three players in the race at this point, but there are some other arms who deserve acknowledgment as well. Nathan Eovaldi has a sensational 1.73 ERA in 22 starts this year, but with just 130 innings of work and a rotator cuff strain that’s likely season-ending, it would be a shock if he got more than down-ballot consideration for the award. Jacob deGrom‘s first healthy season in half a decade has been extremely impressive with a 2.79 ERA, but the 37-year-old’s peripherals pale in comparison to the other top starters in the league. Max Fried‘s season with the Yankees started out incredibly impressive, but his 5.33 ERA since the start of July has likely pushed him out of the conversation for the most part.
With just a month left to go in the season, who do you think will come out on top in the AL Cy Young race? Have your say in the poll below:
Who will win the 2025 AL Cy Young?
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Tarik Skubal 60% (2,941)
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Garrett Crochet 30% (1,456)
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Someone Else 6% (295)
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Hunter Brown 5% (225)
Total votes: 4,917
The Reds’ Newest Infield Question
It wasn’t long ago that the Reds seemed to have an infield surplus. That has changed quickly. The Jeimer Candelario signing was a bust. Jonathan India was traded to Kansas City. Noelvi Marte tested positive for a performance-enhancing substance in Spring Training 2024. Matt McLain sustained significant shoulder and rib injuries and missed all of last year. First basemen Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Spencer Steer regressed, with Encarnacion-Strand’s stock completely tanking when he underwent wrist surgery in July ’24.
Cincinnati has needed to turn to trade a few times. They acquired glove-first utilityman Santiago Espinal in Spring Training last year. Gavin Lux was brought in as a lefty-hitting utility piece last offseason. Lux has been an average hitter and will be due an arbitration raise on this year’s $3.325MM salary. Espinal hasn’t hit at all and will probably be non-tendered in his final arbitration season. Cincinnati went back to the trade market this summer, taking on the final four and a half years on Ke’Bryan Hayes’ contract to land him from the Pirates. He’s now the starting third baseman, moving Marte to what appears to a full-time corner outfield role.
Elly De La Cruz and Hayes should be settled on the left side of the infield. Neither spot on the right side is established. Steer shouldn’t be playing every day on a contender. That might also be true of McLain, whose return from injury has been a major disappointment.
The former first-round pick carries a .221/.299/.329 batting line in 120 games. McLain came out of the gate on fire, homering in three straight games within the season’s first weekend. He has eight home runs in nearly five months since then. He’s hitting .217/.295/.305 in 464 plate appearances since the beginning of April. By measure of wRC+, he’s among the ten least productive hitters in that time (as are Hayes and Espinal).
It hasn’t cost McLain much playing time. That’s in part because of their lack of alternatives. They’d presumably have been more willing to play Espinal if he’d been hitting any better. McLain has dropped to the bottom third of the lineup after hitting second for a good chunk of the season. He looked like a legitimate building block two seasons ago. He finished fifth in Rookie of the Year balloting after hitting 16 homers with a .290/.357/.507 slash in 89 games. Then came last year’s injury-ruined season and this year’s dramatic downturn.
Some of the regression was foreseeable. McLain was never going to repeat the .385 average on balls in play that he had as a rookie. The Reds presumably also expected some rust after the year off. His strikeout and walk profile hasn’t changed much, but he’s doing far less damage on contact. He’s hitting fewer line drives and more lazy fly balls.
There’s also no sign that McLain is turning things around as he gets further removed from the injuries. Excluding his four-day tear in March, he’s been a below-average hitter in every month except June. His numbers have bottomed out over the past few weeks. McLain is hitting .217 with one extra-base knock (a double) and 24 strikeouts in 69 plate appearances in August.
Cincinnati doesn’t have many other options for the final month of the season. The only real alternative would be to play Lux more frequently at second base to open DH at-bats for Miguel Andujar. There’s a defensive downgrade from McLain to Lux and questions about whether Andujar would continue to hit as well as he has if he plays every day rather than getting heavy usage against left-handed pitching. The front office will have a tougher decision on whether to look outside the organization in the offseason.
McLain turned 26 earlier this month. He’s under arbitration control for four more seasons. As recently as this spring, the Reds viewed him as a core piece. McLain told Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer in April that the team approached with a preliminary extension framework before Opening Day. Talks didn’t get anywhere as both sides waited to see how McLain would perform after losing the ’24 season. It’s fair to say the Reds won’t be eager to revisit extension talks now, but it’s not known to what extent they might’ve soured on his long-term projection.
They have a few upper minors infielders who could push for playing time in 2026. Sal Stewart has hit 20 homers with a combined .309/.385/.528 slash between the top two minor league levels in his age-21 season. He’s a promising offensive player but faces questions from scouts about his position. Stewart has played mostly third base in the minors. He has started 15 games at second base this season after making 36 appearances there a year ago. Prospect evaluators consider him a below-average athlete, runner and defender. Do the Reds think he could be a viable if fringy second baseman, or is he more of an option to push Steer for first base reps?
There’s the opposite question with Edwin Arroyo. He’s a gifted defensive shortstop who may have a limited offensive ceiling. Arroyo lost all of 2024 to his own shoulder surgery. He has returned to put together a solid season in Double-A. He’s hitting .289/.351/.380 with good plate discipline metrics but only has three home runs. The Reds will put him on the 40-man roster this offseason, but he has yet to see any Triple-A action. Arroyo shouldn’t have any issue sliding over to second base defensively. He probably wouldn’t make a huge impact at the plate as a rookie.
Tyler Callihan made his MLB debut earlier this season. He broke his wrist crashing into the outfield wall while playing left field in his fourth MLB game. Callihan required season-ending surgery. He can compete for an Opening Day roster spot next spring and is viewed as a bat-first player who’s probably better suited for left field than second base.
The Reds probably don’t want to count on any of Stewart, Arroyo or Callihan out of the gate. They’ll need to decide whether to give McLain another shot or to add someone in free agency or trade. Gleyber Torres is the top free agent at the position. He might be attached to draft pick compensation as a qualifying offer candidate. Signing him would have echoes of the Mike Moustakas/Candelario deals that have flopped on the Reds in the past.
They could take a flier on bat-first utilityman Luis Rengifo. Trade options at the position include Brandon Lowe ($11.5MM club option), Ozzie Albies ($7MM club option), Luis García Jr. (likely $6-7MM arbitration salary), and Lenyn Sosa (pre-arbitration). India will probably be available in free agency with the Royals likely to non-tender him, but that’s only because he’s coming off a replacement level season with Kansas City.
Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images.
Poll: NL Rookie Of The Year Check-In
Within the last few years, the Rookie of the Year award has grown to have more meaning than it had in the past. Changes in the most recent collective bargaining agreement allow the award to bestow a full year of MLB service time on the top two finishers, even if they would have otherwise entered the offseason with less than that. Beyond that, any player who was a top-100 prospect on a pair of prominent preseason lists (Baseball America, MLB.com, ESPN) can net his club an extra pick by winning the award if he breaks camp with his club or was called up less than two weeks into the season. That’s raised the stakes on the two Rookie of the Year races, but who will ultimately come out on top?
Here’s a look at this year’s candidates in the National League, listen in alphabetical order by last name:
Drake Baldwin, C, Braves
The 24-year-old Baldwin is having a banner rookie season for Atlanta after an injury suffered by Sean Murphy during Spring Training opened up the Opening Day catcher job. Baldwin took the reins and never looked back. Through 96 games, he’s hitting .276/.347/.454 with a wRC+ of 126. He’s smacked 14 homers in 337 plate appearances, but more impressive is Baldwin’s plate discipline. The youngster is striking out just 16% of the time while walking at a solid 8.9% clip. That production has been enough to get the lion’s share of time behind the plate in spite of Murphy’s status as a former All-Star and Gold Glove award winner on a hefty contract. If there’s an issue with Baldwin’s profile, it’s that he’s a merely pedestrian defender behind the plate. Scouts expected him to be no more than average behind the plate, and so far the metrics have played that out as he has -1 Catching Runs this year according to Statcast. Baldwin and Murphy are now splitting the workload between catcher and DH, so Baldwin should see regular at-bats down the stretch. If he wins the award, he’ll net the Braves a PPI pick.
Isaac Collins, OF, Brewers
Collins celebrated his 28th birthday last month, making him by far the oldest player on this list. He’s been a game changer for an excellent Brewers club in left field, however, with a .270/.368/.421 (125 wRC+) slash line in 109 games. Collins has chipped in 28 extra-base hits and 15 steals and drawn walks at an excellent 12.3% clip. That penchant for drawing walks fuels an on-base percentage that sits just barely outside the top 20 among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances this year. Collins’ age and lack of a premium defensive position could hold him back in the eyes of some voters, but the switch-hitter does have one big thing going for him: he’s doing his best work now. Since the All-Star break, Collins has hit .288/.377/.475 with a wRC+ of 139.
Cade Horton, RHP, Cubs
The Cubs’ first rounder in the 2022 draft, Horton came up to fill out the rotation in a pinch back in May and has generally looked the part of a quality big league starter. He’s pitched to a 2.88 ERA and 3.71 FIP in 93 2/3 innings of work. That’s by far the best ERA among all rookie pitchers with at least 80 innings, and he’s been on the shortlist for the best pitcher in baseball since the All-Star break with a microscopic 0.49 ERA, a 2.61 FIP, and 24.8% strikeout rate. Horton’s season-long strikeout rate of just 20.1% isn’t all that impressive, and his relatively limited innings may hurt him with some voters. Even so, the 24-year-old should get plenty of attention with the way he’s pitched in the second half so far, and a big final month could further cement his case. Horton was a consensus top-100 prospect prior to the season but wasn’t called up early enough to net the Cubs a pick based on this year’s Rookie of the Year voting (though he could still garner them a pick with a top-3 Cy Young finish before reaching arbitration).
Chad Patrick, RHP, Brewers
Patrick might be overlooked by some voters who could be attracted to the strong second half numbers of Collins and Horton. Even so, he’s a legitimate contender for the award. Patrick’s 105 innings across 21 appearances (20 starts) lead NL rookies. He’s posted a 3.60 ERA with a nearly identical 3.68 FIP while striking out 23.9% of his opponents. Perhaps the biggest flaw in Patrick’s case is that the Brewers optioned him to Triple-A for just over a month. He didn’t pitch in the majors between July 5 and Aug. 19. He’s also worn down as the season has gone on, with a 5.09 ERA and 4.45 FIP in his last seven starts. Patrick will need to turn things around in September if he’s going to make a play for the award, but a strong start to his big league career in April and May could be enough to keep him in the conversation.
Other Options
That aforementioned quartet appear to be the likeliest candidates for the award, but they aren’t the only names to consider. Playing time will be a factor for Miami’s Jakob Marsee, but if the 24-year-old can keep hitting the way he has in 26 games since his Aug. 1 recall (.356/.422/.667, 195 wRC+), his otherworldly performance will get some attention anyway. Teammate Agustin Ramirez leads NL rookies in home runs (18) and plate appearances (463), but he’s posted awful defensive marks behind the plate and is sitting on a .287 on-base percentage (.228/.287/.424 overall). Brewers righty Jacob Misiorowski was the talk of the game after his first few starts, but he spent two weeks on the injured list after being clipped by a comebacker and has been tagged for 13 earned runs in his past 14 1/3 innings (four starts). He’s only at 43 2/3 innings on the season, too, which hurts his candidacy.
Hyeseong Kim has been an above-average hitter for the Dodgers and contributed defensive versatility, but he’s been on the injured list for a month and is unlikely to get enough playing time to merit consideration. Nationals righty Brad Lord is in the midst of a solid season as a swingman, but a 5.47 ERA in August does him no favors. Third basemen Caleb Durbin and Matt Shaw have both had decent enough years but are sure to be overshadowed by their teammates when it comes to balloting.
Who do MLBTR readers think will ultimately come out on top in the NL’s Rookie of the Year balloting? Have your say in the poll below:
Who will win NL Rookie of the Year?
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Drake Baldwin 46% (2,241)
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Cade Horton 26% (1,263)
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Isaac Collins 20% (996)
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Someone Else 7% (360)
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Chad Patrick 1% (59)
Total votes: 4,919