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Tyler Mahle Can Push The Rangers Over The Tax Line

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The Rangers clearly want to avoid the competitive balance tax in 2025. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported as much way back in October and owner Ray Davis confirmed that plan to Grant in January.

There are likely a few reasons for the club taking this route. The Rangers were one of several clubs which had a broadcast deal with Main Street Sports, formerly known as the Diamond Sports Group. As that company was going through bankruptcy, several clubs saw their contracts fall apart. Some of those organizations renegotiated new deals with the company but with lower fees. Other wound up with the league running their broadcasts.

The Rangers took a different approach and decided to launch their own regional sports network (RSN). Several big market clubs own RSNs, either in whole or in part, and many of them are doing well financially. The Rangers may have taken a smart route in the long run but it also might take some time to get it set up from scratch.

With that uncertain financial situation, the club decided it would be a good time to reset its CBT status after paying the tax in 2023 and 2024. Teams face increasing tax rates for paying the CBT in consecutive years. A team that avoids the tax in one year can then go into the following year as a “first-time” payor. Most teams like to limbo under the line from time to time, just to go back to square one.

But the Rangers still wanted to compete. They signed multiple players this offseason, including Nathan Eovaldi, Joc Pederson, Kyle Higashioka, Patrick Corbin, Kevin Pillar and a whole bunch of relievers. In the end, they came close to the line without going over it, at least according to publicly available metrics. RosterResource currently pegs them at $236.4MM, less than $5MM from the $241MM base threshold. Cot’s Baseball Contracts has them even closer at $237.8MM. Those are just estimates but they are probably close to accurate, given that the club wanted to be a bit under.

However, a club’s CBT number isn’t calculated until the end of the season, with any in-season developments being factored in. That includes contract bonuses/incentives for guys already on the club. Any players added midseason, such as in deadline trades, would also count.

That will be a situation worth watching in the coming months as the Rangers are currently atop the American League West with a 14-10 record. Assuming they stay in the race into the month of July, they should be deadline buyers. But if they want to stay under the tax, they may need their moves to be revenue neutral, or they might even need to move some money off their books.

Creeping just barely over the line wouldn’t lead to a massive tax bill. The club would be a third-time payor and subject to a 50% base tax rate. A hypothetical overage of $1MM would only lead to $500K in taxes, which is nothing for a baseball club. But it would mean the club would also face a 50% base tax rate in 2026, whereas ducking under the line this year and becoming a “first-time” payor means a 20% base tax rate next year. Avoiding the tax also changes the penalties and compensation for qualifying offer situations, providing another incentive to a team to stay under the line if they are near it.

In short, the CBT number is a living, breathing thing which will be moving throughout the year and it should have a real impact on the club’s deadline approach. There are many players with bonuses in their contract, but Tyler Mahle is the most notable with $5MM. Assuming the calculations of the club’s current CBT number are correct, that means he can single-handedly push them over the line.

Mahle was coming off May 2023 Tommy John surgery when the Rangers signed him to a back-loaded deal heading into 2024. It was a two-year, $22MM guarantee, with the Rangers knowing they likely wouldn’t get much in 2024. As such, they only paid him $5.5MM in the first year, followed by $16.5MM in 2025 with $5MM also available in incentives.

As expected, the Rangers didn’t get much from Mahle last year. He came off the injured list in August and made just three starts before some shoulder tightness put him back on the IL again. He stayed there for the remainder of the campaign.

Now in 2025, the Rangers seem to be getting what they hoped for. Mahle has been healthy and also in excellent form. He has a 0.68 earned run average though his first five starts. There’s a bit of luck in there from a .156 batting average on balls in play and 90.9% strand rate but he’s been a big part of their early-season success regardless.

The only downside for the Rangers is that Mahle’s bonuses are very achievable. MLBTR has learned that he gets an extra $500K for getting to 100 innings, $1MM each at 110, 120 and 130 innings, then $1.5MM at 140 innings.

He’s not a lock to earn the full $5MM, as he only has one season in his career where he got to 140 innings. He was still getting optioned to the minors at times in 2018 and 2019 and then fully established himself during the shortened 2020 season, before logging 180 frames in 2021. Shoulder troubles capped him at 120 2/3 in 2022, and then the aforementioned Tommy John surgery limited him in the following two seasons. Still, with the Rangers so close to the line, it could be a notable development even if he gets into triple digits and nudges them closer a million or two.

If he stays healthy, he would unlock the full $5MM easily. The Rangers might be tempted to back off his workload, as they did with Andrew Heaney in 2023. Heaney had a $13MM player option for 2024, which would bump up to $20MM if he hit 150 innings in 2023. The Rangers moved him to the bullpen to prevent that from happening, with Heaney finishing the year at 147 1/3 innings.

Doing the same with Mahle might be tricky if he continues pitching well. The Rangers have Cody Bradford, Jon Gray and Jack Leiter on the injured list. Kumar Rocker has a 6.38 ERA through four starts this year. Corbin is holding his own right now but hasn’t had an ERA under 5.00 in a full season since 2019. Jacob deGrom and Eovaldi are out to good starts but each is in his mid-30s with a notable injury track record. In short, this team might need Mahle more than the 2023 Rangers needed Heaney.

There are other players who could also factor in to lesser degrees. Luke Jackson is the second most notable after Mahle, as he is earning a $1.5MM base salary but could earn as much as $4MM via incentives, an extra $2.5MM. He can unlock $75K for pitching in 20 games, $100K at 25, $125 at 30, $150K at 35, $175K at 40, $225K at 45, $250K at 50, $300 at 55 and $350K at 60. That’s potentially an extra $1.75MM just for appearances. There’s another $750K for games finished: $50K for 25, $100K for 30, $150K for 35, $200K for 40 and $250K for 45. He has taken over the club’s closer role in the early going and already has nine games finished and ten appearances overall.

Corbin has batches of bonuses based both on innings pitched and relief appearances, so he should get paid some extra money as long as he’s healthy, regardless of which role the Rangers have him in. He gets $100K at 40 and 55 innings, $150K at 70 and 85, $200K at 100 and 115, $250K at 130, 145 and 160, then $350K at 170. He also gets $100K for 35 relief appearances, $150K for 40, $200K for 45, $250K for 50, $300K for 55. He’s in the rotation for now and those relief appearance bonuses are unlikely to be a factor, but he could certainly earn more money based on innings pitched. Getting to 170 innings pitched and unlocking all the bonuses would be an extra $2MM.

Chris Martin can earn an extra $150K by getting to 45 innings pitched this year and again at 50 frames, followed by $200K at 55 innings. Hoby Milner can get an extra $100K at 35 and then 45 innings, then an extra $150K at 55 and 65. Jacob Webb is making $1.25MM this year but can get that to $1.5MM via incentives worth $250K. MLBTR has learned that Webb gets $50K at 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 innings pitched. Josh Sborz can unlock an extra $25K at five innings, $50K at 10, $75K at 15, $100K at 20. He underwent shoulder surgery in November and is expected to miss at least the first half of the season.

deGrom and Eovaldi have the same awards bonuses. They can earn an extra $250K for winning the Cy Young this year, as well as $200K, $150K, $100K or $50K for finishing second, third, fourth or fifth in the voting. They can also get $150K for winning World Series MVP, as well as $100K for getting an All-Star selection, a Gold Glove award, or LCS MVP. Pederson can get an extra $150K for winning MVP, $100K for an All-Star selection or World Series MVP, plus $50K for for a Silver Slugger or LCS MVP.

All of those bonuses could nudge the Rangers closer to the line or even over it, which will make for an interesting balancing act this summer. As mentioned, they will almost certainly be looking for upgrades as the deadline rolls around but they might also have to move some money around if they continue to plan on avoiding the tax.

Pederson is out to an awful start, so maybe they try to flip him somewhere else, though they would surely have to attach prospect talent in order to convince another club to absorb his contract. He is earning $13MM this year and will be owed $18.5MM next year. He can opt out after 2025 with the club able to override that by picking up a two-year option at $18.5MM annually for 2026 and 2027. If he continues struggling, he will obviously not take that opt-out.

Gray is making $13MM this year, the final season of his contract. He has been on the injured list all season due to a wrist fracture and it’s unclear when he’ll be back. It’s possible the Rangers won’t need him in the rotation once he’s healthy, depending on how others are performing. His deal has an AAV of $14MM, so trading him just ahead of the deadline could shave almost $5MM off the club’s CBT number. However, doing so would subtract from the club’s rotation depth. His trade value will also depend on how he heals up and performs in the coming months.

There are a great many factors at play here, but taking them all into consideration, it feels as though the Rangers are going to be right near the edge. If they abandon their desire to avoid the tax, that could simplify a lot. But if not, they will have to be watching all these numbers in the coming months.

Photos courtesy of Jerome Miron and Kevin Jairaj, Imagn Images

The Giants Should Consider A Rotation Change

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The Giants had a rotation battle throughout Spring Training. Logan Webb, Robbie Ray and Justin Verlander were locked into the top three spots. President of baseball operations Buster Posey said in December that the team remained committed to Jordan Hicks as a starter. The final job would go to one of three younger arms: Kyle Harrison, Hayden Birdsong or Landen Roupp.

Harrison seemed like the frontrunner entering camp. If that had been the case, he quickly pitched his way out of it. The lefty allowed eight runs in 6 2/3 spring innings. The Giants optioned him before Opening Day. (He's since made four starts at Triple-A Sacramento, allowing nine earned runs despite recording 21 strikeouts over 15 innings.) It came down to Birdsong and Roupp, with the latter getting the nod. Birdsong broke camp as a long reliever.

The decision came as a surprise. Birdsong started 16 all of his major league appearances last year. He turned in a 4.75 ERA over 72 innings as a rookie. He'd been lights out during Spring Training, firing 12 innings of one-run ball with 18 strikeouts and no walks. Roupp had a good but less impressive camp, giving up five runs with 14 strikeouts and one walk across 12 frames. He also had more experience working out of the bullpen, as he'd started just four of 23 appearances during his debut season last year.

San Francisco probably feels good about their decision to give Roupp a rotation job. The 26-year-old righty carries a 4.09 earned run average with an excellent 31.2% strikeout rate through the first four turns. He has recorded a pair of quality starts and reached seven innings for the first time in his MLB career on Saturday, when he held the Angels to two runs while striking out nine.

While Roupp has earned continued starting looks, the rest of the rotation beyond Webb has struggled. The Giants have raced to a 15-9 record despite their rotation having the seventh-worst ERA in MLB, entering play Wednesday. They should already consider making a change.

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Poll: Should Spencer Torkelson’s Breakout Be Believed?

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Not long ago, Spencer Torkelson seemed to be out of time. The Tigers first baseman was selected first overall in the 2020 draft to plenty of fanfare, and he instantly became a consensus top-5 talent in the minor leagues. A disappointing rookie season in 2022 tempered those massive expectations, but a strong second half in 2023 caused many around the league to think the following year would be Torkelson’s season to shine. That didn’t happen either, as the slugger was once again a below-average hitter overall and wound up optioned to the minors for much of the year. When the Tigers signed Gleyber Torres to push Colt Keith over to first base, it seemed like a bad omen for 25-year-old’s future in Detroit.

Spring Training changed all of that, as the club’s entire outfield mix save Riley Greene wound up on the injured list. That opened up enough roster spots for Torkelson to have a real shot at the Opening Day roster, and he made the most of the opportunity by hitting .340/.389/.680 in 55 plate appearances during camp. Spring stats only count for so much due to the less competitive environment, however, and Torkelson would need to show out in actual major league games if he was going to turn his career around. So far, he’s done just that. Torkelson has not only been the Tigers’ best hitter this year, but he’s been one of the top hitters in the majors.

Across 24 games this year, the slugger has slashed an excellent .273/.377/.591 with a wRC+ of 176. It’s enough to have made him the 12th-best qualified hitter in the major leagues to this point in the year. It’s early enough in the season that the leaderboard still looks fairly unusual; just ahead of Torkelson with a 177 wRC+ is veteran outfielder George Springer, who it goes without saying is unlikely to maintain a .444 BABIP all season long. While there’s plenty of reasons to be skeptical of small-sample performances, many of them don’t apply to the 106 plate appearances Torkelson has taken to this point in the year.

Torkelson’s BABIP is .309, which is the highest of his career but well within the range of expected outcomes for a hitter and not substantially higher than the .285 BABIP he posted last season. The fact that Torkelson is hitting the ball on a line (17.7% line drive rate) more often than last year (15.1%) surely helps his outcomes on balls in play, as well. His 26.4% strikeout rate is also a tick lower than last year’s 27.6%, but none of these are the most encouraging signs regarding Torkelson’s start to the 2025 campaign. The most exciting news here is that he’s not only resumed crushing the ball at the level he was during the 2023 season, but that he’s paired it with newfound patience at the plate.

The 25-year-old is swinging less than ever, at just 44.3% of his pitches. Torkelson’s swing rates both inside and outside of the strike zone are lower than ever, and that newfound patience has allowed him to not only draw walks at a phenomenal 13.2% clip but also make more contact when he does swing. His 10.2% swinging strike rate this year is the lowest of his career, and he’s making contact on 52.2% of pitches he swings at outside of the zone after putting the bat on just 40.6% of those same pitches last year.

That more judicious approach at the plate has allowed Torkelson to rediscover his titanic power after posting a paltry .155 ISO last year. He has seven homers and seven doubles already this year, and that power is backed up by his underlying numbers: he’s managed a phenomenal 17.7% barrel rate that would be by far the highest of his career if maintained over the full season and is nearly triple last year’s 6.1% clip, and 50.0% of his balls have been considered hard hit, good for a 95mph exit velocity or higher.

All of this is extremely impressive, and if Torkelson can keep anything close to this going for the full year, he’ll have finally tapped into the potential scouts saw in him half a decade ago as an amateur. Over his final 300 plate appearances in 2023, Torkelson hit .238/.320/.506 with a wRC+ of 125. His 26.7% strikeout rate was more or less identical over that stretch to this year’s figure. His 16.6% barrel rate and 52.2% hard-hit rate weren’t far off, either. Those numbers are all close enough to serve as a reminder that Torkelson’s first 100 plate appearances this year don’t guarantee his future production will be close to as impactful, although his 2025 numbers do have a few key advantages over his second-half numbers in 2023.

For one thing, Torkelson’s line drive rate is three points higher while his soft contact rate is nine points lower this season. Those figures could help to explain the huge difference in BABIP, which sat at just .262 during his final 300 trips to the plate in 2023. His discipline is also noticeably improved, as he walked 10.0% of the time during that stretch, nearly four points lower than this year. If Torkelson’s improved plate discipline holds up and he continues to make soft contact this sparingly, it’s not hard to imagine him being able to keep up this level of production over the long haul.

What do MLBTR readers think of Torkelson’s hot start? Is this finally the year he puts it all together and looks like the dominant offensive force he was always expected to be, or will this prove to be another flash in the pan like his late 2023 production? Have your say in the poll below:

How will Spencer Torkelson finish the year?
While he won't hit this well all year, the improvements are legitimate enough to make him a well-above average hitter going forward. 66.14% (2,324 votes)
He'll sustain this breakout fully and emerge as one of the league's top hitters. 20.43% (718 votes)
His hot start should not be believed, and he'll regress to his career norms. 13.43% (472 votes)
Total Votes: 3,514

Looking Ahead To Club Options: NL Central

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MLBTR continues our division by division look at next year’s team/mutual option class with the NL Central. Virtually all of the mutual options will be bought out by one side. Generally, if the team is willing to retain the player at the option price, the player will decline his end in search of a better free agent deal.

Previous installments: player options/opt-outs, NL West, AL West

Chicago Cubs

  • Shota Imanaga, LHP (team has three-year, $57MM option covering 2026-28; if they decline, Imanaga has $15MM player option for 2026)

Imanaga signed a somewhat complex four-year, $53MM deal when he made the jump from NPB during the 2023-24 offseason. Next winter, the Cubs need to decide whether to trigger a three-year, $57MM option for the 2026-28 seasons. That’d come with respective salaries of $20MM, $20MM and $17MM. If the Cubs decline their end, Imanaga would be able to decline a $15MM player option for ’26 and test free agency.

It’d almost certainly take an injury for that to happen. Concerns about how Imanaga’s stuff might translate against MLB competition proved unfounded. The southpaw finished fifth in NL Cy Young balloting during his first major league season. He turned in a 2.91 earned run average across 173 1/3 innings, striking out a quarter of opponents against a 4% walk rate. The punchouts haven’t been there through this year’s first five starts, but he takes a 2.22 ERA into tonight’s appearance against the Dodgers. He’s getting whiffs on an excellent 14% of his pitches, so he’ll likely finish off a few more strikeouts moving forward. Imanaga’s deal looks like a bargain, and the Cubs should happily sign up for another three seasons at a $19MM average annual value unless he suffers an injury.

  • Colin Rea, RHP ($6MM club option, $750K buyout)

Rea reunited with Craig Counsell in Chicago after the Brewers declined his $5.5MM club option. It actually worked out slightly to his financial benefit. The righty collected a $1MM buyout from Milwaukee and secured a $5MM guarantee with the Cubs. He’s playing this year on a $4.25MM salary and will make at least a $750K buyout on next year’s club option. That’s valued at $6MM, so it’ll be a $5.25MM decision.

The Cubs had Rea work in long relief to begin the season. He has stepped into the rotation since the Justin Steele injury. The 34-year-old righty is out to a strong start, allowing two runs through his first 13 2/3 innings. He has punched out 12 while only allowing one walk in 56 plate appearances. Rea had held a rotation role in Milwaukee for most of last year, posting a 4.29 ERA through a career-high 167 2/3 innings. As a mid-30s swingman with league average whiff rates, he’s never going to break the bank, but the option price is reasonable for a capable #5/6 starter.

Turner’s option is mostly an accounting measure designed to push back $2MM of his $6MM free agent guarantee by a few months. Option buyouts are paid at year’s end, while the money would have been evenly distributed throughout the season had it simply been a $6MM salary. It’s unlikely that the Cubs would want to sign up for a $10MM salary covering Turner’s age-41 campaign even if he repeats his solid 2024 production.

The 17-year big league veteran has posted 11 consecutive above-average offensive seasons since his 2014 breakout with the Dodgers. His power numbers have declined with age, but he put up a strong .354 on-base percentage in 139 games between the Blue Jays and Mariners a year ago. Turner’s start on the North Side hasn’t been good. He’s hitting .147 without an extra-base hit over 14 games. He’s taken six walks against nine strikeouts but will obviously need to make more of a slugging impact.

Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati took a buy-low flier on Barlow, a former closer who was released by the Guardians shortly before the playoffs. The righty had fallen quickly down the depth chart in Cleveland. He carried a 3.52 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate into the All-Star Break. Barlow allowed a near-6.00 ERA while striking out just 19% of batters faced in the second half. A fastball that typically sat around 93 MPH had dropped to the 90-91 range.

The early tenure in Cincinnati has been mixed. Barlow has gotten his velocity back, averaging 93 on both his four-seam and sinker. He’s getting whiffs on a huge 15.3% of his offerings, nearly two percentage points above last year’s level. The stuff is certainly more encouraging, but the results haven’t followed. He has a pedestrian 9:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing five runs on eight hits through 9 1/3 innings. He was limited to a $2.5MM guarantee last offseason. He’ll need a more convincing rebound for Cincinnati to retain him on what amounts to a $5.5MM call.

Hays signed for $5MM after being non-tendered by the Phillies. The righty-hitting outfielder has been a capable regular for most of his career, but his production dipped last season while he battled a grueling kidney infection. A Spring Training calf injury delayed his team debut until last week. Hays has been on tear since his return, connecting on three homers while hitting .406 in 34 plate appearances. He has a hit in all seven games, including three straight multi-hit performances against his old teammates in Baltimore over the weekend.

Suter, who grew up in Cincinnati, joined the Reds on a $3MM deal during the 2023-24 offseason. He posted a 3.15 ERA through 65 2/3 innings and signed a $2.25MM extension at the start of last winter. The 35-year-old southpaw is out to a customary start. He has managed 9 2/3 frames of three-run ball despite striking out just four of 38 opponents. Suter’s stuff is never going to jump off the page — he’s sitting in his typical 85-88 MPH range with his fastballs — but he avoids hard contact and is aiming for his seventh straight sub-4.00 ERA showing. Assuming he continues on his usual pace, the Reds should want him back on a $2.75MM decision.

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee made a big investment by their standards in signing Hoskins to a two-year, $34MM contract during the 2023-24 offseason. The longtime Phillies first baseman had missed his walk year after suffering an ACL tear during Spring Training. The Brewers expected Hoskins to recapture his consistently above-average offensive form after a healthy offseason.

That didn’t happen in year one, as he hit a career-worst .214/.303/.419 across 517 plate appearances. Hoskins still managed 26 homers, but the overall offense was essentially league average. It wasn’t attributable to lingering knee discomfort. Hoskins did his best work early in the season, carrying an .813 OPS through the end of May. He hit .203/.285/.395 over the season’s final four months and bypassed an opt-out opportunity.

Hoskins has gotten out to another strong start this year. He’s batting .270 with a trio of homers and what would be a career-low 20% strikeout rate over his first 75 trips to the plate.

Milwaukee signed Peralta to a $20MM extension just before Spring Training 2020. He was mostly unproven at the time, but it only took one more season before he developed into a top-of-the-rotation starter. This quickly became one of the more team-friendly contracts in baseball. The deal included respective $8MM club options for 2025 and ’26, which would have been Peralta’s first two free agent years had he gone through arbitration.

The 28-year-old righty has been the clear staff ace since Milwaukee traded Corbin Burnes. He posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the five guaranteed seasons of the contract. Peralta has rattled off another 28 1/3 frames of 1.91 ERA ball through his first five starts this year. Unless he suffers a significant injury that’d threaten his availability for next season, the Brewers are going to rubber-stamp the option.

Quintana signed late on a $4.25MM pillow contract after finding a weaker market than he expected. The net present value was actually just under $4MM, as Quintana agreed to defer the $2MM buyout on his ’26 mutual option. The Brewers aren’t going to exercise their end of the $15MM option for what would be the veteran lefty’s age-37 season. It looks like they got great value on the one-year deal, though, as Quintana is coming off a 3.75 ERA showing for the Mets. The late signing delayed his team debut, but he has fired 12 1/3 innings of one-run ball over his first two starts.

Woodruff underwent shoulder surgery late in the 2023 season. The Brewers re-signed him to a backloaded two-year deal with a $17.5MM guarantee. They knew he’d spend all of ’24 rehabbing. They’ve taken his progression carefully and didn’t push him during Spring Training. Woodruff began a minor league rehab stint on April 12. He has made a pair of rehab starts and could be back with the big league team in the next couple weeks.

Note: William Contreras’ arbitration contract contains a $12MM team option for next season. He’s excluded from this list because he’d remain under arbitration control if Milwaukee declines the option, as they did with Devin Williams last offseason.

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • None

St. Louis Cardinals

  • None

Poll: Can The Twins Still Bounce Back?

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The 2024 season ended in heartbreaking fashion for Twins fans. Despite Minnesota looking all but locked into a playoff spot at the start of September, a brutal 9-18 record combined with a shocking 17-8 surge for the Tigers was enough to leave Twins players on their couches back home come October. While a fourth-place finish in the AL Central was tough to swallow, the team’s core of talent was largely set to remain in place for 2025, providing some reason for optimism that a team that was held back from the playoffs by one terrible and injury-filled month could turn things around and contend again.

Unfortunately, that hasn’t come to pass. The Twins made were largely inactive for the majority of the offseason, with only minor additions to the roster like the signings of Ty France, Danny Coulombe, and Harrison Bader. In a division where rival clubs made notable additions or reunions (e.g. Gleyber Torres, Jonathan India, Jack Flaherty, Michael Wacha) it was fair to wonder if Minnesota had done enough to keep up. So far, it seems they did not. The Twins are 7-15. That’s the third-lowest win percentage in all of baseball ahead of only the lowly White Sox and Rockies.

A rotation that’s thrown the third-fewest innings in the majors this year with a subpar 4.30 ERA is one factor, but the biggest culprit is a lineup that’s hit just .211/.282/.338 with a wRC+ of 82. That’s 18 points worse than league average and leaves Minnesota with the fifth-worst offense in the league. Byron Buxton and Matt Wallner have been bright spots, but the latter is now on the injured list. Meanwhile, players like Edouard Julien, Ryan Jeffers, and Trevor Larnach have failed to perform. Shortstop Carlos Correa has followed last year’s outstanding .310/.388/.517 performance with a .194/.256/.319 slash line in 78 plate appearances. Royce Lewis has yet to play a game, owing to a hamstring strain.

Dire as things may look, the Twins aren’t even 15% of the way through their season; perhaps it’s too soon to make any grand pronouncements about a club with what looks to be a solid core on paper. After all, the aforementioned Tigers of last season suffered an 8-18 stretch from June 5 to July 4 that featured an even lower winning percentage than Minnesota’s current record, and they went on to fight their way back into contention even after trading away four veterans — including the previously mentioned Flaherty — at the deadline.

That’s not the full story, of course. While the 162-game schedule is a marathon, a major checkpoint is approaching much more quickly: trade season. The trade deadline is 100 days from today. The Twins would have to play at a 91-win pace from now on to even make it back to .500 in time for the All-Star break. It’s anyone’s guess if the club would consider parting ways with major pieces under team control like Pablo Lopez or Jhoan Duran, but even shipping out rental pieces like France, Coulombe, Willi Castro and Harrison Bader would surely stifle the club’s attempts to contend.

The most important x-factor for the Twins, as is the case most years, will be player health. Lopez is expected back from the injured list later this week to help out the rotation, while the lineup figures to receive reinforcements when Wallner and Lewis are activated next month. If those key players make it back healthy and effective within the next few weeks, that could spark a turnaround. By the same token, a setback for any of those players or a long-term injury for another key player could wind up being a nail in the coffin for a team that has given itself very little margin for error with such a dismal start.

What do MLBTR readers think the future holds for the Twins? Will the club be able to get healthy and bring playoff baseball back to Minnesota, or are the Twins staring down a second consecutive disappointing finish? Have your say in the poll below:

How will the Twins fair the rest of the year?
The Twins will continue to lose and finish the season well below .500. 46.78% (1,401 votes)
The Twins will bounce back to post a decent record, but it won't be enough to get back to October. 40.00% (1,198 votes)
The Twins will fight their way back into playoff contention. 13.22% (396 votes)
Total Votes: 2,995

Poll: Will Alec Bohm Turn Things Around?

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The Phillies have enjoyed a solid enough start to their season to this point. Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Castellanos are all off to hot starts, the starting pitching has largely looked as strong as ever despite the absence of Ranger Suarez, and the late-inning dominance of both Jose Alvarado and Matt Strahm has made the losses of Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez look manageable. Despite those positives, however, Philadelphia has fallen behind the Mets in the early going. Much of that is due to New York sporting the best pitching staff in baseball to this point in the year. While in theory the Phillies’ superior offensive numbers should help to balance that out, hot starts by most of the lineup’s key players have been negated in part by the deep struggles faced by outfielder Brandon Marsh and third baseman Alec Bohm.

Marsh was placed on the 10-day injured yesterday after going without a hit through the first two and a half weeks of April, but there’s no evidence of a physical explanation for Bohm’s struggles. The 28-year-old has slashed just .193/.211/.261 with a wRC+ of 30 that indicates he’s been 70% worse than league average at the plate so far this year. Those numbers have come in 90 plate appearances. It’s not a sample size at which most offensive stats have stabilized, but a month of production is still a significant chunk of the season. Adding fuel to the concerns surrounding Bohm is the fact that the infielder fell off a bit in the second half last year after strong early-season production. He slashed just .251/.299/.382 in 204 plate appearances after the All-Star break last year. Putting those two stretches together, Bohm is left with a set of nearly 300 plate appearances where he’s posted a lackluster 71 wRC+.

That sort of performance would not be acceptable for an everyday third baseman on a playoff contender. That’s especially true of Bohm given that he’s neither a top-notch defender nor a meaningful contributor on the bases. While some defensive metrics liked Bohm’s work at third base last year as demonstrated by his +5 Outs Above Average, there’s plenty of reason to view that figure as a bit of an outlier. Bohm’s been one of the worst defenders in baseball this year with -3 OAA already, and he’s been below average in every season of his career outside of 2024. Meanwhile, he’s never stolen more than five bases in a season or produced positive baserunning value in a full campaign according to Fangraphs’ BsR metric.

With so much emphasis on Bohm’s bat, the silver lining here is that there’s some encouraging signs in his underlying production this year. Specifically, Bohm’s batted ball metrics look quite good despite the complete absence of results. His 51.4% hard-hit rate is nearly seven points higher than his career average and six points above last year’s mark. He’s also sporting an 8.3% barrel rate that’s well above his career norms and in line with what power hitters like Josh Naylor and Randy Arozarena offered last year. The only noticeable flaw in Bohm’s batted ball data is that he’s hitting it on the ground too often; his 50% groundball rate would be his highest since 2021, leaving him with a career-worst 20.8% line drive rate and a flyball rate down nearly four points from last year.

In addition to Bohm’s struggles with elevating the ball to this point in the year, he’s suffered from a steep decline in plate discipline. Bohm struck out in just 14.8% of his plate appearances in each of the last two years, so this season that figure jumping to 17.8% is at least somewhat notable. More concerning than that, however is his shockingly low 1.1% walk rate. Bohm has draw just one walk to this point in the season; not only is that by far the fewest of any hitter with as many plate appearances as Bohm this year, just 15 other hitters in the whole sport with even half of Bohm’s 90 trips to the plate haven’t drawn at least two walks yet. A look under the hood suggests that Bohm is swinging at fewer strikes (65.7%) than ever before in his career while swinging outside the zone more often (27.5%) than he did last year.

Those numbers are both still relatively close to his career norms, so perhaps Bohm’s walk rate can get back to something closer to normal over a larger sample size. If he can do that and start elevating the ball a bit more often, it’s easy enough to see him rebounding to be a solid contributor this year. It remains an open question, however, as to whether or not he’ll get that opportunity. After all, Edmundo Sosa has plenty of experience at third base and has gotten off to a scorching start this year with a .414/.438/.552 slash line. That’s come in a sample of just 32 plate appearances and is heavily inflated by a massive .571 BABIP, but if the Phillies fall further behind the Mets in the standings while Bohm continues to struggle, making a switch is hardly unthinkable. There’s also the trade deadline over the horizon, where the Phils might have options to upgrade on Bohm, with Nolan Arenado rumors likely to ramp up again between now and then.

How do MLBTR readers think things will play out with Bohm? Will he still be the starting third baseman in Philadelphia at the end of the year? And will he have bounced back to put up numbers more in line with his career 101 wRC+? Have your say in the polls below:

Will Bohm still be the Phillies' starting third baseman at the end of the year?
No 50.94% (1,442 votes)
Yes 49.06% (1,389 votes)
Total Votes: 2,831
Will Bohm finish the year an above average (101 wRC+ or higher) hitter?
No 63.74% (1,596 votes)
Yes 36.26% (908 votes)
Total Votes: 2,504

The Rays’ Emerging Core

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I was just 15-20 minutes into writing this when the Rays placed Richie Palacios back on the injured list and selected the contract of prospect Chandler Simpson, widely regarded as the fastest player in the sport. Simpson swiped 104 bags in 110 minor league games last year. He was caught only 13 times. He's 8-for-11 in steals to begin the current season. He's struck out in fewer than 10% of his professional plate appearances. Simpson has virtually no power, but he's an oddity in today's game and a throwback to the leadoff hitters of yesteryear. If he can carry those wheels and that preternatural contact ability over to the majors, he's going to garner a lot of national attention, simply because he's a departure from the MLB archetype in an era of baseball that's increasingly focused on power, elevating the ball, exit velocity, etc.

Maybe Simpson will be a star for the Rays. Maybe he'll follow the Billy Hamilton career path. We can't know yet. He hasn't played a single big league game. But even without the promotion of a notable prospect, the Rays' future was already starting to look quite bright.

We're early in the 2025 season, of course, so lots of things can be chalked up to small sample sizes. And the Rays do have plenty of early small-sample success stories. It hasn't yet translated into winning ball, evidenced by their 8-11 record, but Tampa Bay has a +11 run differential and has spent a good portion (in some cases all) of the season playing without some key stars. Shane McClanahan is wrapping up his rehab from Tommy John surgery. Josh Lowe has been out almost all year with a strained oblique. Ha-Seong Kim was signed knowing that he'd be out into at least May following shoulder surgery. The version of the Rays that president of baseball operations Erik Neander and manager Kevin Cash trot out in June and July should be expected to look quite a bit different than the April version.

There are still some intriguing names on the roster right now, however, many of whom are flying too far under the radar. It's easy to get too caught up in early-season data, as it tends to balance out over a larger sample. But with many of the Rays' young and/or returning contributors, the breakout campaigns they're teasing date back to the second half of the 2024 season. Tampa Bay operated as a seller last summer, trading away veterans Zach Eflin, Jason Adam, Isaac Paredes, Randy Arozarena, Aaron Civale and Phil Maton, among others.

That opened the door for a wave of younger players to begin receiving more playing time, and if you trace things back to that point, some of these eye-opening March/April stats start to look a little more legitimate. It's still only about 40% of a season -- less than that in some cases -- but as is always the case with a Rays team that ebbs and flows through periods of contending and rebuilding on the fly, there are some very intriguing components of a core taking shape.

Let's run through a few particular standouts.

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Player Option/Opt-Out Update: April Edition

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The increasing popularity of opt-outs/player options as a means to close the gap in free agent signings and extensions has changed the face of free agency entirely. Not long ago, opt-outs were perks reserved for the game’s truly elite stars — a benefit to help differentiate nine-figure offers and secure the game’s top stars.

In 2025, they’re downright commonplace. Opt-out laden short-term deals have become a common alternative to the more conventional one-year pillow contract that a player in search of a rebound campaign might pursue. They’ll also provide a soft landing for a veteran whose market didn’t materialize as expected, even coming off a productive season. Some teams simply use them as a means of sweetening the pot even when negotiating with mid- and lower-tier free agents. The Royals gave opt-outs/player options to both Chris Stratton and Hunter Renfroe two offseasons ago. The Reds did the same with Emilio Pagan and Nick Martinez. Tucker Barnhart, Trey Mancini and Ross Stripling are just a few of the other recent examples of solid but non-star veterans to land such clauses in their free agent contracts.

At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from club options that have been widely accepted as commonplace for decades. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin, one favoring the team and the other favoring the player.

There are 16 players around the league this year who’ll have the right to opt into free agency at season’s end, depending on their performance. (Conversely, there are 27 players with club options.) We’ll periodically take a look at this group over the course of the season, as their performances will have a major impact on the 2025-26 market. For more context, you can check out our full list of 2025-26 MLB free agents as well as the first installment of our recent 2025-26 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings, wherein we rank the top 10 free agents in terms of earning power. Darragh McDonald, Anthony Franco and I recently discussed the decision process behind those rankings in the latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast.

Onto this year’s group!

Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets | One year, $24MM remaining

Alonso looked like a good bet to opt out from the moment he agreed to terms on his front-loaded two-year, $54MM contract. That he’s been one of the best hitters on the planet in the season’s first three weeks only improves that likelihood. The 30-year-old slugger is slashing a comical .365/.474/.730 with five homers, eight doubles and more walks (12) than strikeouts (10) through his first 78 turns at the plate. Alonso is chasing pitches off the plate at a career-low 19.1% rate and is sporting the best contact rate of his career at 82.8%. He’s doing all of that with career-best marks in average exit velocity (96.3 mph), barrel rate (24.1%) and hard-hit rate (61.1%). Alonso has been an absolute monster, and the fact that he can’t receive a qualifying offer — players can only receive one in their career, and he rejected one last November — is a cherry on top of his dominant output.

Cody Bellinger, OF/1B, Yankees | One year, $25MM remaining (Bellinger receives $5MM buyout if he opts out)

Bellinger posted All-Star numbers with the 2023 Cubs, signed back for three years with a pair of opt-outs and hit well in 2024 — just not to his 2023 standard. Traded to the Yankees this past offseason, many thought he was primed for a rebound because of the favorable dimensions at Yankee Stadium. It hasn’t played out that way. Through his first 62 plate appearances, Bellinger looks more like the lost version of himself from 2021-22 than the strong performer we saw in ’23-’24. He’s hitting .185/.242/.296 with what would be career-worst strikeout and swinging-strike rates of 29% and 15.2%, respectively. When he’s made contact, it’s been loud (90.8 mph average exit velocity, 53.5% hard-hit rate) — and there’s still plenty of time to turn things around. It’s not the start he or the Yankees hoped for, however.

Shane Bieber, RHP, Guardians | One year, $16MM remaining (Bieber receives $4MM buyout if he opts out)

Bieber has yet to pitch this season as he rehabs from last year’s Tommy John surgery. Cleveland has yet to place him on the 60-day injured list, which could offer some optimism regarding his timetable for a return, but he’s not on a minor league rehab assignment yet. At last check, he was targeting a return around the All-Star break.

Alex Bregman, 3B, Red Sox | Two years, $80MM remaining (Bregman can opt out again after 2026)

Bregman has started his Boston tenure on a tear, hitting .321/.365/.564 with four big flies in 85 plate appearances. He’s been 62% better than average, by measure of wRC+, but there are still some of the same red flags he displayed early in the 2024 season. During his peak, Bregman was one of the sport’s toughest strikeouts and showed outstanding plate discipline. From 2018-23, he walked in 13.8% of his plate appearances against a puny 12.3% strikeout rate. Bregman’s walk rate fell off a cliff last season, and it hasn’t recovered so far in 2024. He’s drawn only four free passes (4.7%). More concerning, he’s fanned 18 times, leading to what would be a career-worst 21.2% strikeout rate. Bregman’s chase rate is down, and he’s still making elite contact within the strike zone, but he’s making contact on a career-low 56.5% of his swings on balls off the plate. If he keeps hitting like this, it probably won’t matter, but it’s something to watch as the season continues.

Edwin Diaz, RHP, Mets | Two years, $37MM remaining (Diaz can opt out again after 2026)

Diaz had a nice return from a 2023 season lost to a knee injury in 2024, pitching to a 3.52 ERA with a 38.9% strikeout rate against a 9.3% walk rate. It wasn’t quite his usual level of dominance, but most relievers would happily take a 39% punchout rate in a “down” season. Things aren’t going as well in 2025. Diaz’s four-seamer is sitting at a career-low 96.4 mph, per Statcast. That’s down 1.1 mph from last year’s mark and 2.5 mph from his 99.1 mph peak in 2022. If he were still overpowering opponents, it wouldn’t matter much, but Diaz has been tagged for five runs on six hits and five walks in 6 2/3 frames. That’s a 16% walk rate, and he’s already tossed four wild pitches — more than he did in 53 2/3 innings a year ago. The caveat with everyone on this list is that we’re all of 11-12% through the season, but the early trendlines aren’t good for Diaz.

Jack Flaherty, RHP, Tigers | One year, $10MM remaining (increases to $20MM once Flaherty makes 15 starts)

Flaherty’s heater is down nearly a mile per hour, and his walk rate is up from 5.9% to 10.3% … but that’s in a span of 21 1/3 innings. He’s still getting strikeouts at a plus level (28.7%), and the bottom-line results are good: 2.53 ERA. Flaherty seems healthy, which will be a big factor for him — both in terms of boosting his stock ahead of a potential return to free agency and in boosting his 2026 salary if he winds up forgoing the opt-out opportunity. If he can deliver a third straight season of 27-plus starts and a second straight year with a plus strikeout rate and low-3.00s (or even mid-3.00s) ERA, the market will likely reward him with the long-term deal that eluded him this past winter. Flaherty doesn’t turn 30 until October. He’ll have a chance at a deal ranging from four to six years in length if he comes close to replicating his 2024 performance. One potential downside: he was traded last summer and thus ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. If the Tigers contend all season, as expected, they’ll be able to make Flaherty a QO if he opts out.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF, D-backs | One year, $18MM remaining

Though he’s one of the most consistent hitters in the sport, Gurriel is out to a woeful start in 2025. His D-backs are red-hot, but their current win streak comes in spite of an anemic .145/.176/.304 start from their everyday left fielder. Gurriel has some of the best contact skills in MLB, fanning in only 17.3% of his plate appearances and making contact on just shy of 90% of his swings in the zone dating back to 2022. He’s punched out in what would be a career-low 13.5% of his plate appearances this year, but he’s staring down a .121 average on balls in play. He should be due for a course correction, but it’s worth noting that he’s hitting more fly-balls and fewer line-drives than ever, which is going to naturally suppress his BABIP a bit (although certainly not to this extent). Gurriel is owed $13MM in 2026 and has a $5MM buyout on a $14MM club option for 2027. He’d need to be confident he could top not just $18MM but probably that he’d top two years and $27MM; the hefty nature of that buyout makes him a net $9MM decision for the D-backs in 2027, which seems like a price they’ll be willing to pay.

Ha-Seong Kim, SS, Rays | One year, $16MM remaining

Kim is still finishing up the rehab from last October’s shoulder surgery. He’s expected back mid-to-late May, which would give him about four months to prove he’s back to form. A healthy Kim would’ve been a coveted free agent who could’ve commanded four or more years in free agency. A plus defender at three positions and a plus runner with enough power to pop 10 to 20 homers annually, Kim will be in high demand next offseason if the shoulder injury doesn’t prove a major drain on his offensive capabilities.

Seth Lugo, RHP, Royals | One year, $15MM remaining

Lugo’s rise from reliever to starter to Cy Young finalist has been remarkable. He’s gotten decent results in 2025, with a 3.86 ERA in his first 23 1/3 innings, but his strikeout and walk rates are nowhere near last year’s marks. After fanning 21.7% of his opponents against a pristine 5.7% mark last year, the 35-year-old Lugo currently sports respective rates of 17% and 9.6%. His velocity is below par (92.2 mph average fastball) but right in line with last year’s levels. A year and $15MM should be the floor for a healthy Lugo, even if he doesn’t repeat his brilliant 2024 season. That’s the same mark that older starters like Charlie Morton, Justin Verlander, Alex Cobb and Max Scherzer (well, $15.5MM) received this past offseason. The Royals could tag him with a qualifying offer if he opts out, which would give him a tougher call on a one-year deal that should be worth more than $21MM. That said, if Lugo comes anywhere close to last year’s results, he’d turn that down in pursuit of a multi-year deal.

A.J. Minter, LHP, Mets | One year, $11MM remaining

Minter’s 94.3 mph average fastball is a career-low, but it’s only narrowly shy of his 2024 mark (94.5 mph). It’s feasible that as he further distances himself from last year’s hip surgery, that number could tick up, too. He’s pitched 8 1/3 innings, allowed a pair of runs on five hits and a walk, and punched out a dozen hitters. That’s a whopping 38.7% strikeout rate. So far, Minter is missing more bats within the strike zone than ever before; opponents have an awful 73% contact rate on his pitches in the zone (compared to the 85% league average). Minter landed two years and $22MM with an opt-out when he was coming off hip surgery. He should be able to top a year and $11MM so long as he’s healthy and pitches to his typical levels. So far, so good.

Frankie Montas, RHP, Mets | One year, $17MM remaining

Montas has yet to pitch in 2025 after suffering a lat strain during spring training. He’s yet to begin a minor league rehab stint but, like Bieber, also has not been placed on the 60-day injured list yet. The size of the Mets’ commitment to Montas this winter registered as a bit of a surprise even when he was thought to be healthy. He’ll need a strong few months to walk away from $17MM guaranteed.

Tyler O’Neill, OF, Orioles | Two years, $33MM remaining

The biggest question with O’Neill is whether he can stay healthy enough to position himself for an opt-out. He’s mashing with a .265/.339/.490 slash and two homers through 56 plate appearances. (One of those big flies extended his ludicrous MLB record of six straight Opening Days with a long ball.) He’s also missed the past couple games due to neck discomfort. O’Neill has never played in more than 138 games in a season, and he’s only twice reached 100 games in a year. (He did play 50 of 60 games in the shortened 2020 season.) O’Neill’s 21.4% strikeout rate would be a career-low, but his actual contact rate and swinging-strike rate aren’t career-best marks. It’s hard to see him sustaining that career-low strikeout rate as a result, but O’Neill’s power is substantial enough that he can be a productive hitter even running strikeout rates approaching/exceeding 30%.

Joc Pederson, DH/OF, Rangers | One year, $18.5MM remaining (Rangers can counter opt-out by exercising 2027 club option for $18.5MM)

Signed to help the Rangers remedy their 2024 ineptitude against fastballs, Pederson has instead turned in a career-worst performance against heaters (and every other offering). It’s only 16 games, but Pederson has collected just one hit against fastballs in 2025 — a single. It’s an alarming development for a hitter who carries a lifetime .244 average and .521 slugging percentage against four-seamers. Pederson has compiled an unfathomable .060/.161/.080 slash in 57 plate appearances. He’s still making a fair bit of hard contact, but most of it is resulting in grounders. His 55.6% ground-ball rate and 2.8% (!) line-drive rates are career-worst marks. There’s no earthly way he can continue to struggle this much, but he’ll need quite the turnaround for that opt-out provision to come into play.

Wandy Peralta, LHP, Padres | Two years, $8.9MM remaining (Peralta can opt out again after 2026)

Peralta posted a career-worst 13.6% strikeout rate in year one of his four-year pact with San Diego in 2024. He passed on his first opt-out opportunity, and understandably so. It’s early, but the veteran lefty has more than doubled last year’s awful 8.3% swinging-strike rate, which now sits at 16.8% through 8 1/3 innings. Peralta is generating chases on an eye-popping 40% of his pitches off the plate, and his opponents’ 44.4% contact rate on those swings is the second-best mark of his career. He’s all but shelved his four-seamer, is barely using his slider, and is leaning hard into a sinker/changeup combo. He won’t sustain a 1.08 ERA, of course, but if he keeps piling up grounders and whiffs, he’ll have a good case to opt out, even at age 34.

Trevor Story, SS, Red Sox | Two years, $55MM remaining

It’s hard to believe we’re already in year four of Story’s six-year deal with Boston — in part because we simply haven’t seen him in a Red Sox uniform all that often. The former Rockies All-Star played in only one-third of the team’s games through the first three years of the contract. Injuries have decimated Story in recent years, and he produced a middling .232/.296/.397 line when healthy enough to play from 2022-24. He’s out to a much better start in 2025, playing in 20 games (already just six shy of last year’s total) and recording a .299/.325/.442 line with three homers. A 3.8% walk rate, 30% strikeout rate and .400 BABIP through 80 plate appearances don’t bode especially well, but to his credit, Story is torching the ball; he’s averaging 90.3 mph off the bat and has even better marks in barrel rate (11.3%) and hard-hit rate (54.7%). It’s hard to see him turning down the two years and $55MM after he’s been injured so much in Boston, but he’s enjoying a fine start to the year.

Robert Suarez, RHP, Padres | Two years, $16MM remaining

Suarez’s name popped up late in the offseason rumor mill, but he was always going to be a tough trade candidate because of this two-year player option. If he performed well, he’d opt out, and if he struggled and/or got hurt, the acquiring team would be saddled with two unwanted years. Such is the nature of trading anyone with a player option/opt-out. Suarez stayed put, and the Padres have to be thrilled. He’s 8-for-8 in save opportunities, hasn’t allowed a run in nine innings, and is boasting a 31.3% strikeout rate against a 6.3% walk rate. That strikeout rate is supported by a huge 16% swinging-strike rate. Suarez looks unhittable right now, just as he has in the past when at his best. There’s a lot of season left, and things can go south in a hurry for relievers in particular, but a player couldn’t ask for a better start to a platform season.

Looking Ahead To Club Options: AL West

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Over the coming days, MLBTR will look at next offseason’s option class. Steve Adams highlighted the players who can opt out of their current deals, while we’ll take a division-by-division look at those whose contracts contain either team or mutual options. Virtually all of the mutual options will be bought out by one side. Generally, if the team is willing to retain the player at the option price, the player will decline his end in search of a better free agent deal.

We started with a look at the NL West yesterday. While every team in that division had at least one player whose deal contained a club or mutual option, its American League counterpart only has two teams that are slated to have any option decisions.

Athletics

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Houston Astros

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Los Angeles Angels

The Angels brought in Newman on a $2.75MM contract early last offseason. The contact-hitting infielder was coming off a solid .278/.311/.375 slash over 111 games in a utility role in Arizona. He added necessary shortstop depth with Zach Neto opening the season on the injured list after last fall’s shoulder surgery. Newman had a rough Spring Training, though, and the Angels went with minor league signee Tim Anderson as their primary shortstop until Neto’s return tonight.

Newman’s cold spring has carried into his early regular season work. He has managed three hits, all singles, without taking a walk in 23 trips to the plate. Newman has never walked much or hit for any kind of power, but he generally puts the ball in play and can move around the infield. Neto’s return means he won’t get much playing time at shortstop, while Kyren Paris and Luis Rengifo are respectively getting the majority of work at second and third base.

Note: José Quijada and Evan White each have club options on their respective contracts. They’ve both been outrighted off the 40-man roster and are very likely to be bought out. If they’re added back to the 40-man, the Angels would control both players via arbitration even if they decline the options.

Seattle Mariners

Garver’s two-year, $24MM contract remains the only multi-year deal that the Mariners have awarded to a free agent hitter under Jerry Dipoto’s leadership. It hasn’t gone well. While Garver’s injury history made that a somewhat risky investment, he looked like a good bet to hit whenever he was on the field. Garver was coming off a .270/.370/.500 showing for the Rangers during their World Series season, and he brought a career .252/.342/.483 batting line to T-Mobile Park.

The 34-year-old’s production tanked almost immediately. He managed a career-high 430 plate appearances last season, but it came with easily his worst rate stats in a full season. Garver hit .172/.286/.341 while striking out at a 31% rate. It wasn’t simply a product of Seattle’s pitcher-friendly park. His .186/.290/.324 line on the road wasn’t any better than his .153/.281/.363 showing at home. He doesn’t look to be on the verge of a rebound. Garver has begun this season with four singles, six walks, and zero extra-base hits across 34 trips to the plate.

The Mariners worked out an extension with the hard-throwing Muñoz during the 2021-22 offseason. He’d made all of one appearance in a Seattle uniform at the time. Muñoz had undergone Tommy John surgery while a member of the Padres in 2020. Seattle acquired him early in the rehab process. They believed he’d blossom into a late-game weapon. They were right.

Muñoz has rattled off three straight sub-3.00 ERA seasons since signing his extension. He has begun this year with 10 scoreless innings, recording 13 strikeouts with an AL-leading seven saves. He carries a 2.35 earned run average with a huge 34.7% strikeout rate over 184 frames in a Seattle uniform. This has quickly become one of the most team-friendly contracts in the game.

The option is essentially a lock unless he suffers a significant injury that’d cost him all of next season. The team has respective $8MM and $10MM options for 2027 and ’28, so they could keep him at below-market rates for three years. Next season’s option has a $6MM base value. It’d climb by $250K apiece if Muñoz finishes 20, 30, 40 and 45 games this year. He’s already at eight games finished and should get to 45 by season’s end. The option price will probably end up at $7MM, but it’s an easy call for the front office.

Polanco’s option begins as an $8MM mutual provision, but he can convert it to a player option if he hits a vesting threshold. If he reaches 450 plate appearances this season and avoids a lower half injury that’d require him to begin next season on the injured list — which is protection for the team given his recent knee concerns — it’d become a $6MM player option. Getting to 550 plate appearances this year would push the player option price to $8MM.

If Polanco does not hit the vesting threshold, it’d remain an $8MM mutual option with a $750K buyout. He has been dinged up by knee and side discomfort that has limited him but not prevented him from playing. The switch-hitting Polanco is currently unable to play the infield or hit right-handed in games. He’s a lefty-swinging designated hitter for now. Yet he’s been on such a tear that the Mariners will happily live with the limitations.

Polanco has connected on three homers and a pair of doubles through 13 games. He’s hitting .378. That not only leads the team but ranks sixth in the majors among hitters with at least 40 plate appearances. He’s obviously not going to keep up this pace, but Polanco was fairly consistently an above-average hitter during his run as Minnesota’s second baseman. The Mariners felt that last year’s career-worst production was attributable to the knee injury through which he played a good chunk of the season. Polanco has done his best to prove that right so far.

Texas Rangers

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Poll: Can The Giants Sustain Their Hot Start?

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When the Giants completed their 19th game of the 2021 season four years ago, they were 12-7, two games behind the reigning World Series champion Dodgers for the NL West lead. After four straight seasons with losing records, few expected a Giants club that was largely unchanged from the year prior to find any sort of success even after their solid start to the season. Even fewer expected what would actually come to pass, as San Francisco improbably went on to win 107 games and squeak out a division title over L.A. by just one game.

Flash forward to this year, and the Giants are 13-6 after their 19th game of the season and even closer to the once again reigning World Series champion Dodgers in the standings, sitting just half a game back. For fans in San Francisco who were jaded by the three seasons of mediocrity since that magical 2021 campaign, the Giants’ start has been a huge breath of fresh air. Scorching hot starts from outfielders Jung Hoo Lee and Mike Yastrzemski have helped carry the offense to the third-highest total of runs scored in the majors entering play today. Logan Webb has continued to play his part as a perennial candidate for the Cy Young award. The bullpen’s sterling 1.89 ERA is the second-best figure in all of baseball.

Those are encouraging signs, and there’s an argument that the team figures to get better in some areas. Willy Adames hasn’t begun to hit yet after signing the largest contract in franchise history. LaMonte Wade Jr. certainly won’t hit .102 all year, and even if he did continue to flounder, top prospect Bryce Eldridge could eventually be called upon to fill his shoes at first base. The rotation’s lackluster ERA (4.80) is nearly a full run higher than its FIP (3.90) and SIERA (4.00); Justin Verlander and Jordan Hicks almost certainly won’t continue running ERAs north of 6.00.

Projection systems have begun to generally buy into San Francisco’s hot start. FanGraphs gives the Giants a 51.3% chance to make the postseason with a projected record of 86-76, a massive step forward from their preseason projections (81-81, 28.5% postseason chance).

That’s not to say there are no potential red flags, of course. The rotation has looked rough outside of Webb. The rest of the group figures to bounce back from rough starts to at least some extent, but Robbie Ray’s velocity is at its second-lowest mark ever and he’s walking nearly 18% of his opponents. Could this version of Ray, a 42-year-old Verlander or Hicks serve as a credible No. 2 starter for a playoff team? That could be asking a lot. Meanwhile, the bullpen is currently outperforming both its FIP and SIERA by nearly a run and a half.

The biggest obstacle for the Giants if they want to maintain their current success, however, is the landscape of the NL West. Their excellent 13-6 record is good for only third place in the division and just one game ahead of the fourth-place D-backs (who’d won five straight and seven of their past eight). Arizona, San Diego, and especially L.A. entered the season not just as projected contenders, but potentially dominant clubs. Their own starts to the season have done little to change those expectations, and while the Giants have pulled off some impressive series wins against clubs like the Yankees and Astros, they’ve yet to play a single game against their own division.

Their first big test in that regard will be a two-game set against the Padres at the end of the month. The Giants will be in Arizona for the first time about a month from now, and they won’t face the Dodgers until mid-June. Perhaps being able to save difficult matchups against division rivals for later in the season will allow the Giants to build enough of a cushion to sustain themselves through the trade deadline, when they can add reinforcements. A stretch of 13 straight games against the D-backs and Dodgers in mid-September presents a potentially formidable roadblock late in the season.

How sustainable do MLBTR readers believe San Francisco’s hot start to be? Will they be able to exceed preseason expectations that they’d finish around .500, or perhaps even make it to October? Have your say in the poll below:

How will the Giants finish the 2025 season?
The Giants will miss the playoffs, but exceed expectations and finish with a winning record. 45.54% (1,347 votes)
The Giants will make the playoffs. 38.37% (1,135 votes)
The Giants will finish .500 or worse. 16.09% (476 votes)
Total Votes: 2,958
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