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The Nationals Need To Lean Further Into Their Rebuild

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This wasn't how the Nationals hoped their rebuild would play out. When now-former GM Mike Rizzo traded Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers back in 2021, the hope was that dismantling a stacked roster could lead to an accelerated turnaround. In the span of just over a calendar year, Washington traded Scherzer, Turner and Juan Soto, in addition to short-term veterans like Kyle Schwarber, Jon Lester, Brad Hand, Yan Gomes, Daniel Hudson, Josh Harrison, Josh Bell, Jeimer Candelario, Dylan Floro and Hunter Harvey.

It obviously takes years to fully evaluate the extent of any given trade, but it's more than fair to say the slate of moves largely hasn't panned out. Rizzo's return for Soto/Bell has been terrific, with the Nats netting James Wood, MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Robert Hassell III and Jarlin Susana. The first four are current big leaguers -- the first three are stars or close to it -- and Susana is now a consensus top-100 pitching prospect. The trade of Lester brought back Lane Thomas, who was a solid regular for a few years before being traded to Cleveland last summer in a deal that netted the Nats current big league infielder Jose Tena and left-hander Alex Clemmey -- currently their No. 3 prospect at Baseball America. It's a nice return for one-plus seasons of Thomas.

The rest of the Nationals' haul, however, hasn't really panned out. Washington doesn't have any above-average regulars to show for the rest of that slate of trades. If they'd focused squarely on low-level minor leaguers who were still bubbling up to the top of a stacked farm system, that'd be one thing .... but it's not the case. Washington's farm system ranks 21st in the majors, per Baseball America, and that's after benefiting from the No. 1 pick in this summer's draft. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel ranks their farm 22nd. The MLB.com team ranks them 23rd. For a last place team that's been rebuilding for more than four years, that's not sufficient.

Let's dive into what the Nats received from that group of trades, what critical decisions lie ahead in the offseason, and how boldly they could act in order to turn things around.

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Poll: AL Cy Young Race Check-In

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While a few of this season’s awards don’t appear to be terribly competitive headed into the final month of the season, one race that still appears to be wide open is that for the AL Cy Young award. MLBTR last checked in on the race back in June, at which point Tigers ace Tarik Skubal was viewed as the heavy favorite to capture his second consecutive Cy Young, with nearly 46% of the vote and nearly double second place finisher’s total.

Skubal is still a strong contender for the award, of course, and perhaps even the favorite. Through 26 starts this year, the southpaw has logged 166 innings of 2.28 ERA ball. He’s struck out 33.5% of his opponents with a phenomenal 3.9% walk rate, giving him the best K-BB% in baseball this year. That mix of strikeout stuff and pinpoint command is Skubal’s bread and butter, as his other metrics this year have been closer to average than exceptional. His ground ball rate is a cromulent 40.7% this year, and his 8.7% barrel rate ranks 15th among 30 qualified AL hurlers. Skubal’s last start was an unusual one, as he surrendered six runs in 6 2/3 innings of work but only one of those six runs was considered earned. Even with those five runs not countered against his ledger, he’s posted a 3.05 ERA and 3.55 FIP in the month of August. That performance is strong but not quite on the level of some other contenders.

While Skubal’s numbers haven’t changed too drastically since June, he’s found a rival for his position as the AL’s best lefty strikeout artist in the form of Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet. The 26-year-old has more or less matched Skubal in virtually every stat. He had 166 1/3 innings of work to Skubal’s aforementioned 166 through 26 starts, though Crochet’s six-innings of two-run ball against the Orioles yesterday pushed his total up to 172 1/3. His 2.40 ERA is within spitting distance of Skubal’s own figure, and his 31.1% strikeout rate is just a couple of points behind. Where he falls more significantly behind Skubal is his walk rate, as he’s allowed free passes at a 6.1% clip.

He makes up for the gap in K-BB% somewhat with stronger batted ball numbers, however. He’s generating grounders at a 48.5% clip, and his 7.2% barrel rate is the sixth-best figure in the AL. For those inclined towards more traditional metrics, Crochet also sports an AL-best 14 wins on his record. Crochet’s 3.19 ERA in August didn’t separate him from Skubal significantly, but his peripherals (including a 2.96 FIP) are significantly better over that span. If he can turn those peripherals into production in September, perhaps that will be enough to separate himself from Skubal.

Of course, Crochet and Skubal aren’t the only two options to consider. Astros right-hander Hunter Brown is in the midst of a breakout season that deserves serious consideration. Through 26 starts, Brown’s 155 2/3 innings of work lag behind the totals of the two lefties, but his numbers are undeniably impressive. He’s posted a 2.37 ERA with a 46.0% ground ball rate and a 29.1% strikeout rate. Brown’s 6.1% barrel rate is the second-best figure in the AL this year, though he’s held back somewhat by his 7.6% walk rate.

When looking at Brown’s recent work, it’s something of a mixed bag. His 1.71 ERA in August is obviously fantastic, but it comes with an asterisk after he allowed four unearned runs in his most recent start. His 22.2% strikeout rate is also far below his typical norms, but his 2.71 FIP is nothing short of excellent. Brown seems to be a step behind both Skubal and Crochet at this point, but it’s easy to imagine him pushing himself more firmly into the conversation with a strong September.

Brown, Skubal, and Crochet seem like the top three players in the race at this point, but there are some other arms who deserve acknowledgment as well. Nathan Eovaldi has a sensational 1.73 ERA in 22 starts this year, but with just 130 innings of work and a rotator cuff strain that’s likely season-ending, it would be a shock if he got more than down-ballot consideration for the award. Jacob deGrom’s first healthy season in half a decade has been extremely impressive with a 2.79 ERA, but the 37-year-old’s peripherals pale in comparison to the other top starters in the league. Max Fried’s season with the Yankees started out incredibly impressive, but his 5.33 ERA since the start of July has likely pushed him out of the conversation for the most part.

With just a month left to go in the season, who do you think will come out on top in the AL Cy Young race? Have your say in the poll below:

Who will win the 2025 AL Cy Young?
Tarik Skubal 59.81% (2,941 votes)
Garrett Crochet 29.61% (1,456 votes)
Someone Else 6.00% (295 votes)
Hunter Brown 4.58% (225 votes)
Total Votes: 4,917

The Reds’ Newest Infield Question

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It wasn’t long ago that the Reds seemed to have an infield surplus. That has changed quickly. The Jeimer Candelario signing was a bust. Jonathan India was traded to Kansas City. Noelvi Marte tested positive for a performance-enhancing substance in Spring Training 2024. Matt McLain sustained significant shoulder and rib injuries and missed all of last year. First basemen Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Spencer Steer regressed, with Encarnacion-Strand’s stock completely tanking when he underwent wrist surgery in July ’24.

Cincinnati has needed to turn to trade a few times. They acquired glove-first utilityman Santiago Espinal in Spring Training last year. Gavin Lux was brought in as a lefty-hitting utility piece last offseason. Lux has been an average hitter and will be due an arbitration raise on this year’s $3.325MM salary. Espinal hasn’t hit at all and will probably be non-tendered in his final arbitration season. Cincinnati went back to the trade market this summer, taking on the final four and a half years on Ke’Bryan Hayes’ contract to land him from the Pirates. He’s now the starting third baseman, moving Marte to what appears to a full-time corner outfield role.

Elly De La Cruz and Hayes should be settled on the left side of the infield. Neither spot on the right side is established. Steer shouldn’t be playing every day on a contender. That might also be true of McLain, whose return from injury has been a major disappointment.

The former first-round pick carries a .221/.299/.329 batting line in 120 games. McLain came out of the gate on fire, homering in three straight games within the season’s first weekend. He has eight home runs in nearly five months since then. He’s hitting .217/.295/.305 in 464 plate appearances since the beginning of April. By measure of wRC+, he’s among the ten least productive hitters in that time (as are Hayes and Espinal).

It hasn’t cost McLain much playing time. That’s in part because of their lack of alternatives. They’d presumably have been more willing to play Espinal if he’d been hitting any better. McLain has dropped to the bottom third of the lineup after hitting second for a good chunk of the season. He looked like a legitimate building block two seasons ago. He finished fifth in Rookie of the Year balloting after hitting 16 homers with a .290/.357/.507 slash in 89 games. Then came last year’s injury-ruined season and this year’s dramatic downturn.

Some of the regression was foreseeable. McLain was never going to repeat the .385 average on balls in play that he had as a rookie. The Reds presumably also expected some rust after the year off. His strikeout and walk profile hasn’t changed much, but he’s doing far less damage on contact. He’s hitting fewer line drives and more lazy fly balls.

There’s also no sign that McLain is turning things around as he gets further removed from the injuries. Excluding his four-day tear in March, he’s been a below-average hitter in every month except June. His numbers have bottomed out over the past few weeks. McLain is hitting .217 with one extra-base knock (a double) and 24 strikeouts in 69 plate appearances in August.

Cincinnati doesn’t have many other options for the final month of the season. The only real alternative would be to play Lux more frequently at second base to open DH at-bats for Miguel Andujar. There’s a defensive downgrade from McLain to Lux and questions about whether Andujar would continue to hit as well as he has if he plays every day rather than getting heavy usage against left-handed pitching. The front office will have a tougher decision on whether to look outside the organization in the offseason.

McLain turned 26 earlier this month. He’s under arbitration control for four more seasons. As recently as this spring, the Reds viewed him as a core piece. McLain told Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer in April that the team approached with a preliminary extension framework before Opening Day. Talks didn’t get anywhere as both sides waited to see how McLain would perform after losing the ’24 season. It’s fair to say the Reds won’t be eager to revisit extension talks now, but it’s not known to what extent they might’ve soured on his long-term projection.

They have a few upper minors infielders who could push for playing time in 2026. Sal Stewart has hit 20 homers with a combined .309/.385/.528 slash between the top two minor league levels in his age-21 season. He’s a promising offensive player but faces questions from scouts about his position. Stewart has played mostly third base in the minors. He has started 15 games at second base this season after making 36 appearances there a year ago. Prospect evaluators consider him a below-average athlete, runner and defender. Do the Reds think he could be a viable if fringy second baseman, or is he more of an option to push Steer for first base reps?

There’s the opposite question with Edwin Arroyo. He’s a gifted defensive shortstop who may have a limited offensive ceiling. Arroyo lost all of 2024 to his own shoulder surgery. He has returned to put together a solid season in Double-A. He’s hitting .289/.351/.380 with good plate discipline metrics but only has three home runs. The Reds will put him on the 40-man roster this offseason, but he has yet to see any Triple-A action. Arroyo shouldn’t have any issue sliding over to second base defensively. He probably wouldn’t make a huge impact at the plate as a rookie.

Tyler Callihan made his MLB debut earlier this season. He broke his wrist crashing into the outfield wall while playing left field in his fourth MLB game. Callihan required season-ending surgery. He can compete for an Opening Day roster spot next spring and is viewed as a bat-first player who’s probably better suited for left field than second base.

The Reds probably don’t want to count on any of Stewart, Arroyo or Callihan out of the gate. They’ll need to decide whether to give McLain another shot or to add someone in free agency or trade. Gleyber Torres is the top free agent at the position. He might be attached to draft pick compensation as a qualifying offer candidate. Signing him would have echoes of the Mike Moustakas/Candelario deals that have flopped on the Reds in the past.

They could take a flier on bat-first utilityman Luis Rengifo. Trade options at the position include Brandon Lowe ($11.5MM club option), Ozzie Albies ($7MM club option), Luis García Jr. (likely $6-7MM arbitration salary), and Lenyn Sosa (pre-arbitration). India will probably be available in free agency with the Royals likely to non-tender him, but that’s only because he’s coming off a replacement level season with Kansas City.

Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images.

Poll: NL Rookie Of The Year Check-In

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Within the last few years, the Rookie of the Year award has grown to have more meaning than it had in the past. Changes in the most recent collective bargaining agreement allow the award to bestow a full year of MLB service time on the top two finishers, even if they would have otherwise entered the offseason with less than that. Beyond that, any player who was a top-100 prospect on a pair of prominent preseason lists (Baseball America, MLB.com, ESPN) can net his club an extra pick by winning the award if he breaks camp with his club or was called up less than two weeks into the season. That’s raised the stakes on the two Rookie of the Year races, but who will ultimately come out on top?

Here’s a look at this year’s candidates in the National League, listen in alphabetical order by last name:

Drake Baldwin, C, Braves

The 24-year-old Baldwin is having a banner rookie season for Atlanta after an injury suffered by Sean Murphy during Spring Training opened up the Opening Day catcher job. Baldwin took the reins and never looked back. Through 96 games, he’s hitting .276/.347/.454 with a wRC+ of 126. He’s smacked 14 homers in 337 plate appearances, but more impressive is Baldwin’s plate discipline. The youngster is striking out just 16% of the time while walking at a solid 8.9% clip. That production has been enough to get the lion’s share of time behind the plate in spite of Murphy’s status as a former All-Star and Gold Glove award winner on a hefty contract. If there’s an issue with Baldwin’s profile, it’s that he’s a merely pedestrian defender behind the plate. Scouts expected him to be no more than average behind the plate, and so far the metrics have played that out as he has -1 Catching Runs this year according to Statcast. Baldwin and Murphy are now splitting the workload between catcher and DH, so Baldwin should see regular at-bats down the stretch. If he wins the award, he’ll net the Braves a PPI pick.

Isaac Collins, OF, Brewers

Collins celebrated his 28th birthday last month, making him by far the oldest player on this list. He’s been a game changer for an excellent Brewers club in left field, however, with a .270/.368/.421 (125 wRC+) slash line in 109 games. Collins has chipped in 28 extra-base hits and 15 steals and drawn walks at an excellent 12.3% clip. That penchant for drawing walks fuels an on-base percentage that sits just barely outside the top 20 among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances this year. Collins’ age and lack of a premium defensive position could hold him back in the eyes of some voters, but the switch-hitter does have one big thing going for him: he’s doing his best work now. Since the All-Star break, Collins has hit .288/.377/.475 with a wRC+ of 139.

Cade Horton, RHP, Cubs

The Cubs’ first rounder in the 2022 draft, Horton came up to fill out the rotation in a pinch back in May and has generally looked the part of a quality big league starter. He’s pitched to a 2.88 ERA and 3.71 FIP in 93 2/3 innings of work. That’s by far the best ERA among all rookie pitchers with at least 80 innings, and he’s been on the shortlist for the best pitcher in baseball since the All-Star break with a microscopic 0.49 ERA, a 2.61 FIP, and 24.8% strikeout rate. Horton’s season-long strikeout rate of just 20.1% isn’t all that impressive, and his relatively limited innings may hurt him with some voters. Even so, the 24-year-old should get plenty of attention with the way he’s pitched in the second half so far, and a big final month could further cement his case. Horton was a consensus top-100 prospect prior to the season but wasn’t called up early enough to net the Cubs a pick based on this year’s Rookie of the Year voting (though he could still garner them a pick with a top-3 Cy Young finish before reaching arbitration).

Chad Patrick, RHP, Brewers

Patrick might be overlooked by some voters who could be attracted to the strong second half numbers of Collins and Horton. Even so, he’s a legitimate contender for the award. Patrick’s 105 innings across 21 appearances (20 starts) lead NL rookies. He’s posted a 3.60 ERA with a nearly identical 3.68 FIP while striking out 23.9% of his opponents. Perhaps the biggest flaw in Patrick’s case is that the Brewers optioned him to Triple-A for just over a month. He didn’t pitch in the majors between July 5 and Aug. 19. He’s also worn down as the season has gone on, with a 5.09 ERA and 4.45 FIP in his last seven starts. Patrick will need to turn things around in September if he’s going to make a play for the award, but a strong start to his big league career in April and May could be enough to keep him in the conversation.

Other Options

That aforementioned quartet appear to be the likeliest candidates for the award, but they aren’t the only names to consider. Playing time will be a factor for Miami’s Jakob Marsee, but if the 24-year-old can keep hitting the way he has in 26 games since his Aug. 1 recall (.356/.422/.667, 195 wRC+), his otherworldly performance will get some attention anyway. Teammate Agustin Ramirez leads NL rookies in home runs (18) and plate appearances (463), but he’s posted awful defensive marks behind the plate and is sitting on a .287 on-base percentage (.228/.287/.424 overall). Brewers righty Jacob Misiorowski was the talk of the game after his first few starts, but he spent two weeks on the injured list after being clipped by a comebacker and has been tagged for 13 earned runs in his past 14 1/3 innings (four starts). He’s only at 43 2/3 innings on the season, too, which hurts his candidacy.

Hyeseong Kim has been an above-average hitter for the Dodgers and contributed defensive versatility, but he’s been on the injured list for a month and is unlikely to get enough playing time to merit consideration. Nationals righty Brad Lord is in the midst of a solid season as a swingman, but a 5.47 ERA in August does him no favors. Third basemen Caleb Durbin and Matt Shaw have both had decent enough years but are sure to be overshadowed by their teammates when it comes to balloting.

Who do MLBTR readers think will ultimately come out on top in the NL’s Rookie of the Year balloting? Have your say in the poll below:

Who will win NL Rookie of the Year?
Drake Baldwin 45.56% (2,241 votes)
Cade Horton 25.68% (1,263 votes)
Isaac Collins 20.25% (996 votes)
Someone Else 7.32% (360 votes)
Chad Patrick 1.20% (59 votes)
Total Votes: 4,919

What Kind Of Contract Can Framber Valdez Command?

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We're a little over two months from the opening of free agency. Framber Valdez has probably established himself as the #1 pitcher. That's in part due to Dylan Cease's inconsistency and Michael King missing almost three months to a nerve-related shoulder injury. It's also a testimony to Valdez's consistency and incredible run of durability. It's not common for the top pitcher in a free agent year to be one entering his age-32 season. That should be the case this winter.

How does Valdez stack up against the top starting pitchers in previous free agent classes? MLBTR's Contract Tracker, available to Front Office subscribers, allows for direct comparisons. That makes it possible to project what kind of deal his camp should seek as he approaches the biggest payday of his career.

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Poll: The Rangers And The Waiver Wire

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The Rangers decided to add at this year’s trade deadline and acquired several arms to beef up the pitching staff. Merrill Kelly was the headliner, but the team also swung deals for Danny Coulombe and Phil Maton in an effort to make up for somewhat lacking production from the club’s offense. That strategy, unfortunately, hasn’t worked. The Rangers’ position in the standings hasn’t changed much as they’ve remained stuck around .500, as has been the case for most of the year.

With the start of September just a few days away, a Rangers club that has been on the cusp between contending and retooling all season is now faced with one final point of decision-making: Should they stay the course and hope for a white hot September that pushes them into the postseason? Or should they throw in the towel and try to sneak back under the luxury tax after the club’s deadline trades pushed their projected payroll slightly over the edge?

They have the opportunity to do the latter if they put Kelly, Coulombe, Maton, and other veterans on expiring deals through waivers. If those players get claimed, they’ll move on to the claiming team and the Rangers will be off the hook for the final month of their salary. Aside from those players who were added at the trade deadline, other expiring deals like those of Chris Martin, Patrick Corbin, Shawn Armstrong and Hoby Milner could make sense for the team to make available. Even Adolis Garcia, who remains under club control via arbitration for the 2026 season, could make sense to make available on waivers given his status as a potential non-tender candidate.

Doing so might give the team additional financial flexibility for the offseason as they look ahead to 2026. Ownership preferred to remain under the tax threshold and reset its penalty levels this past offseason. Their deadline push was made with the team’s postseason odds around 40-50%. Those odds have plummeted, with FanGraphs giving them a 7.2% chance and PECOTA pegging them at 9.8%.

Texas would avoid paying roughly one-sixth of the full season salary for any player who gets claimed off waivers. That means parting ways with Kelly (who is making $7MM this year) would save the club around $1.2MM. Cheaper players like Maton ($2MM) would only shave a little over $300K off the team payroll if claimed.

Of course, saving that money doesn’t do much for the club if it isn’t enough to put them under the luxury tax, and there’s no guarantee they’ll be able to shed enough money to do so. The team saw with Jon Gray earlier this month that there’s no guarantee a player will be plucked off waivers just because he’s been placed there.

The Rangers’ next most expensive pending free agent is Tyler Mahle, and he’s only just resumed throwing off the mound as he tries to work his way back from a rotator cuff strain. It’s hard to imagine a team placing what’d be a roughly $2.75MM bet that Mahle would not only be able to make it back by season’s end but also return to his prior levels of efficacy. It’s a similar situation with Martin, who has been out since late July with a calf strain and still isn’t on a rehab assignment (though he’d amount to a less costly $916K gamble).

Looking beyond the financial aspect of Texas’s decision, it’s worth considering the club’s position in the standings. The 67-67 Rangers have gone just 10-14 since the trade deadline and have lost 12 of their last 20 games. They’ll need a winning percentage a lot better than .400 in September if they’re going to have any hope of making the postseason. Still, a playoff berth isn’t entirely out of the question. Texas is currently 4.5 games out of the final AL Wild Card spot, which is held by the Mariners. They’re six games back of the Yankees in the second AL Wild Card spot as well as the Astros for the AL West title. They still play Houston six times and also have three-game sets with the Brewers and Mets. Their other 16 games are against teams with losing records.

Those six games against the Astros in September give the Rangers more control over their destiny than most clubs have by this point on the calendar. Perhaps that’s reason enough to stay the course. After all, it would be disappointing for the organization if a rare healthy season from Jacob deGrom went to waste.

On the other hand, the club’s core of players is facing some health challenges. Evan Carter, Marcus Semien and Nathan Eovaldi have all been shelved with what are very likely season-ending injuries in recent days. The loss of Martin in the bullpen has also been a real blow, and it’s unclear if he’ll make it back to the field before the end of the season.

How do MLBTR readers think the Rangers should handle their situation? Should they place a handful of short-term veterans on waivers to try to duck under the tax line and save money for another run in 2026, or would it be best to keep the team together and try to win this year despite dwindling playoff odds and mounting injury concerns? Have your say in the poll below:

Should the Rangers put expiring contracts on waivers?
Yes, waive expiring contracts and try to save money for 2026. 71.36% (1,540 votes)
No, keep the team together and try to win this year. 28.64% (618 votes)
Total Votes: 2,158

Poll: AL MVP Race Check-In

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Back in June, MLBTR conducted a pair of polls checking the temperature on the two MVP races, and both polls saw the league’s reigning MVP earn a dominating majority. Aaron Judge pulled in 55% of the vote in the American League poll, while Shohei Ohtani did even better as he commanded 57% of the vote in the National League’s poll. Since then, Ohtani has broken away from the pack in the NL as he’s more fully resumed two-way duties. While other players like Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Pete Crow-Armstrong have put together excellent seasons of their own in the NL, it’s hard to see that race as anything other than Ohtani’s to lose headed into the final month of the season.

By contrast, the AL MVP race has tightened considerably over the past two months. A big part of that is the fact that  Judge hasn’t looked like his usual superhuman self lately. The 33-year-old is still slashing an absurd .323/.439/.667 (193 wRC+), a figure that leads the majors by a substantial margin. However, Judge’s numbers have come down quite a bit in the past two months. Since the day our last AL MVP poll was published, Judge has hit “just” .240/.385/.540 with 12 homers and a 26% strikeout rate in 192 trips to the plate.

That lack of volume is thanks to a flexor strain in Judge’s elbow that sent him to the injured list for a minimum stint a few weeks ago, and his .210/.380/.403 slash line since returning from the injured list only underscores that he’s not playing at full strength. He’s also been relegated to a DH-only role for the month of August and has no timetable for his return to the outfield, though he’s already begun making throws to the infield in pregame workouts.

Of course, Judge looking mortal for a month or so wouldn’t be terribly noteworthy without someone mounting a substantial challenge for his league’s MVP award. Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is doing exactly that. Raleigh’s phenomenal season has earned him plenty of attention all year, but he’s only garnered more attention as an MVP candidate in the weeks since Judge’s injury. Interestingly, Raleigh’s offensive numbers have slumped a bit right alongside Judge. While he was slashing .278/.383/.665 at the time of our last AL MVP poll, he’s hit a less robust .204/.311/.498 in 235 plate appearances since then. That includes a .202/.302/.524 slash line in August that isn’t all that far ahead of Judge’s numbers.

Even with the pair both cooling at the plate, Raleigh has still been playing catcher regularly and hasn’t missed time on the IL like Judge has. Raleigh, who secured just 37% of the vote in our last poll, now has eight more games played and 31 more plate appearances than Judge. It’s a small gap, but in a close race, an increased defensive workload and slight lead in terms of overall volume could be key differentiators.

There’s also the factor of history to be considered. Judge managed to surpass Ohtani in the 2022 AL MVP race in part because he set the AL home run record that season. Raleigh would need to hit 13 homers before the end of the season in order to take the title of AL home run king away from Judge, but his prodigious power has already secured him one piece of history that Judge has no hope of taking away: last night, he became the first catcher in MLB history to slug 50 homers in a season. All of that comes together to make Raleigh a legitimate contender for the award alongside Judge, and the fact that the pair are tied at the top of the MLB leaderboard with 7.3 fWAR a piece only further speaks to the viability of both candidates.

Few players in the AL have a realistic shot of challenging these two titans, but one player who could make an interesting case for himself with a strong September would be Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., who finished second for the award behind Judge last year. Witt only received token consideration for the award in our last poll, garnering just 2.3% of the vote two months ago. Since then, however, he’s outperformed both Judge and Raleigh with a .313/.370/.524 slash line, a 13-for-14 record on the bases, and defense at shortstop that should make him a lock for his second consecutive Gold Glove award at the position. Witt’s 6.5 fWAR and 130 wRC+ both substantially trail Judge and Raleigh at this point, but if those two continue trending downward while Witt continues trending up, it’s at least possible that we could be in for a three-horse race.

Who do MLBTR readers think will ultimately win this year’s AL MVP award? Will Judge hold onto the title for the second year in a row? Will Raleigh’s historic season behind the plate be enough? Could Witt’s second-half surge be enough to overcome both of them? Have your say in the poll below:

Who Will Win The AL MVP Award?
Cal Raleigh 71.43% (4,878 votes)
Aaron Judge 22.77% (1,555 votes)
Bobby Witt Jr. 3.56% (243 votes)
Someone Else 2.24% (153 votes)
Total Votes: 6,829

Poll: Is Geographic Realignment A Good Idea?

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Commissioner Rob Manfred created quite a bit of buzz around the baseball world last week when he made comments on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball last weekend that suggested the league’s desired expansion to 32 teams could be coupled with a dramatic realignment of MLB’s current structure.

“I think if we expand, it provides us with an opportunity to geographically realign,” Manfred said on the broadcast. “I think we could save a lot of wear and tear on our players in terms of travel. And I think our postseason format would be even more appealing for entities like ESPN, because you’d be playing out of the east and out of the west.”

The possibility of MLB following in the footsteps of other American sports, like the NBA and NFL, by adopting an eastern/western conference layout as opposed to the current AL vs NL structure is certainly an interesting one. Fans of teams on the east coast and even in the midwest have long bemoaned the late night games associated with west coast road trips, and Manfred’s suggestion that a geographic realignment could lessen the burden of travel on players throughout baseball’s marathon schedule is difficult to argue with. Fans have little reason to care about the desirability of postseason games for broadcasters like ESPN and FOX, but both Manfred’s comments and simple common sense would indicate that possibility will be highly appealing to the league, as well.

Of course, the downsides to a potential geographic realignment are obvious. Baseball is a sport steeped in history, and the loss of the AL/NL structure would necessarily complicate our view of that history. Had the league moved away from the AL/NL structure previously, would Aaron Judge’s chase for 62 home runs in 2022 have been nearly as noteworthy? Without a division between the two leagues, Judge would simply be seventh on the single-season home run leaderboard, rather than the AL record holder. And that’s before considering the possibility of lost rivalries. There’s several ways that MLB could look to realign geographically, but many proposals (including one from Mike Axisa of CBA Sports) would split up historic rivalries like Cubs/Cardinals and Dodgers/Giants. That would be a tough pill to swallow for those teams, who view their longtime rivalries as a key part of their team’s culture and history.

On the other hand, the distinction between baseball’s two leagues has been eroding for years now. The NL has adopted the designated hitter rule, the All Star game no longer determines home field advantage in the World Series, and the schedule has been altered so that every team plays every other team in at least one series per season regardless of league. That amount of inter-league play would guarantee that even rivalries split by this geographic realignment, like the Cubs and Cardinals in Axisa’s proposal, would still play each other on occasion. It’s also worth noting that many interleague rivalries, such as Mets/Yankees and Cubs/White Sox, would benefit from more games on the schedule each year if they were to be pushed into the same conference by geographic realignment.

Realignment on some level is inevitable, as with 32 teams it would be impossible to create six even divisions. Still, that doesn’t mean the AL/NL structure must be lost entirely. Stephen J. Nesbitt of The Athletic was among those to propose a realignment structure that would preserve the status quo for the most part, with only a handful of changes to the current structure as both leagues would move from three divisions of five teams to four divisions of four teams. Under Nesbitt’s plan, the Rockies and Rays would swap to the AL and NL respectively, but all other teams would remain in their current league and no historic rivals would be divided. Of course, maintaining what fans appreciate about the current structure would also mean maintaining many of its frustrations; late night games for fans on the east coast whenever their club takes a road trip out west, and a more much more extreme travel schedule for the players.

How do MLBTR readers feel about the possibility of geographic realignment coming to the majors? Would changing the league’s current structure so drastically detract from the sport’s history for little benefit, or with the leagues already more similar than ever is a major shakeup worth if it improves travel- and timezone-related experience for fans and players alike? Have your say in the poll below:

Should The League Pursue Geographic Realignment Alongside Expansion?
No, preserve the AL/NL structure and abandon geographic realignment. 63.18% (8,923 votes)
Yes, abandon the AL/NL structure in favor of East/West conferences. 36.82% (5,201 votes)
Total Votes: 14,124

Which Other Players Could End Up On Waivers This Month?

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The second half of August brings an uptick in waiver placements. Beyond the trade deadline, waivers are the only real option for player movement from one team to another. A few teams that were fringe contenders at the end of July know now that they're almost certainly going to miss the postseason. Placing veterans with semi-notable salaries on waivers gives them a chance to dump the final few weeks of a contract. Other teams aren't going to claim a terrible contract, but there's sometimes a balance where the player's salary is solid value but isn't of much use to a team that is going to miss the playoffs anyway.

This can take on added importance for teams that are right up against the luxury tax. The Angels kicked this practice into gear two years ago, offloading Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López and Matt Moore to slide narrowly below the CBT threshold. That at least allowed them to recoup a better draft pick when Shohei Ohtani walked in free agency. It's not only about tax avoidance, though. A lot of teams would welcome the opportunity just to cut a few hundred thousand dollars off the books in a losing season.

Within the past week, Rangers righty Jon Gray has already gone unclaimed on waivers. He was subsequently placed on the injured list due to thoracic outlet syndrome and will probably remain on the IL for the rest of the season. Marlins starter Cal Quantrill hit waivers within the past day or two; it's to be seen whether another team will pick up the approximate $734K that he's owed through season's end. Waiver placements that are not preceded by a DFA aren't publicly announced by teams. They're often leaked to reporters, but it's entirely possible there have already been a few notable names who have cleared or are on waivers that haven't gotten out.

The late-August timing isn't coincidental. Players must be in an organization by the start of September to be eligible for postseason play. Teams can still go the waiver route in September, but other clubs are less likely to place a claim next month because those players cannot help in the playoffs. Waiting until the end of August gives the current team as much time as possible to see where they're at in the standings. It also reduces the cost to a potential claiming team to around four weeks of salary, perhaps making someone more likely to place a claim at the end of the month than they would have been a few weeks ago (when the remaining salary would be around twice as high).

It's worth reiterating that the teams placing the player on waivers are hoping another team makes a claim. Sending a veteran through unclaimed has little to no benefit. Most of them have the five-plus service years to refuse a minor league assignment, so teams usually proceed as if nothing happened if the player goes unclaimed. They could place them back on waivers in a week or two to see if another club is more willing to bite because of the lower remaining salary and/or intervening injuries.

Which players could find themselves on waivers within the next 10 days? There's a clear team with which to start -- a club that bought at the deadline but has been in a free fall ever since while they sit right against the luxury line.

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Poll: How Will Kyle Tucker Finish 2025?

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Ever since Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed a massive extension with the Blue Jays back in April, Kyle Tucker has been viewed as the consensus top player in this winter’s free agent class. It’s not hard to see why, as he’s a four-time All-Star, a former Gold Glove and Silver Slugger award winner, and the fifth-place finisher in AL MVP voting in 2023. That resume is what convinced the Cubs to trade All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes, top prospect Cam Smith, and young starter Hayden Wesneski to the Astros last winter in order to acquire Tucker in his final year of club control.

It’s a decision that paid off in a big way during the first half of the season. Through the end of June, Tucker slashed an phenomenal .291/.395/.537 across 83 games. Among qualified hitters, only Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, Shohei Ohtani, and Will Smith had a higher wRC+ than Tucker’s 158 during that stretch. While it wasn’t quite on par with the otherworldly 179 wRC+ Tucker posted in 78 games with the Astros last year, it was still an undeniably dominant showing that led to many wondering if he would join Guerrero and Juan Soto in clearing the $500MM benchmark upon hitting free agency this winter.

Once the calendar flipped to July, however, things changed for Tucker in a hurry. In 163 plate appearances since the start of July, Tucker has hit just .189/.325/.235 with a wRC+ of just 72. He’s tallied just four extra-base hits in that time and has gone a full month without hitting a home run at this point after launching his last long ball on July 19. Tucker’s slump has been lengthy enough and severe enough that club manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Patrick Mooney of The Athletic) yesterday that he plans to give Tucker “some days off” in hopes of helping him reset and get back on track.

That the Cubs are sitting a player who looked like a legitimate MVP candidate just over a month ago is inherently shocking, but it’s hard not to see why given his recent performance. It’s fair to wonder how Tucker’s deep struggles of late may have impacted his market in free agency, as well. After all, a major calling card for Tucker has been his consistency and reliability as a middle-of-the-order force. An extended slump such as this one puts a hole in that narrative, especially when combined with him missing half of last season due to injury.

When looking at other outfielders who signed mega deals in free agency, Tucker’s resume doesn’t quite measure up. He no longer seems likely to wind up with an absurd platform season like Judge (nine years, $360MM) put together in 2022, and he’s three years older than Bryce Harper (13 years, $330MM) was when he reached free agency. The inflation top-level MLB contracts have seen in recent years should help Tucker, especially as compared to Harper’s contract from all the way back in the 2018-19 offseason, but if his season doesn’t turn around going forward he may not even crack the $400MM threshold in free agency, much less $500MM.

So, will Tucker be able to turn things around? There’s certainly some reasons for optimism. Most notably, his discipline at the plate has remained elite even during his slump. Since July 1, Tucker has actually walked (16.0%) more often than he’s struck out (15.3%). His .224 BABIP during that period suggests some positive regression could be on the way in terms of batted ball luck, but even underlying metrics like hard-hit rate (27.9%) and barrel rate (2.7%) suggest he’s earned his lack of power production. There’s been speculation in some circles that a finger injury suffered when sliding into second base could be the cause of his power outage, but that’s a somewhat dubious claim between Tucker himself suggesting his finger has not caused him problems at the plate and the fact that he had a 14.7% barrel rate and 42.6% hard-hit rate in 24 June games following his return from the injury.

It would be a shock if Tucker truly batted below the Mendoza line with virtually no power the rest of the way this year. He’s been a bottom 20 player in baseball since July 1 in terms of wRC+, and it’s practically unheard of for a player of his caliber to perform that poorly for that long when not dealing with some sort of physical issue or age-related decline. With that said, it’s worth noting that Tucker’s recent slump has actually put his 2025 numbers more or less in line with his career norms. Tucker is hitting .261/.374/.447 with a 131 wRC+ overall this year. Through the end of the 2023 season, Tucker was a career .272/.345/.507 (132 wRC+) hitter.

Those slash lines are awfully similar, and it stands to reason that it’s at least possible Tucker’s incredible 78-game 2024 campaign was simply an outlier. On the other hand, it must also be noted that Tucker put together 709 plate appearances between the start of the 2024 season and the end of June 2025 where he hit a combined .290/.401/.559 with a wRC+ of 168. Only Judge (218), Ohtani (179), and Soto (171) posted better numbers during that time frame. It shouldn’t shock anyone if Tucker is able to recapture some of that production over the season’s final six weeks and ends up with a strong platform year, even if it doesn’t quite reach the heights that looked possible two months ago.

What do MLBTR readers think is in store for Tucker over the final weeks of the 2025 campaign? Will he be able to turn things around and quell any doubts created by his recent struggles? Will his slump continue and push his season numbers lower than they are now? Or will his numbers settle in as he levels off somewhere close to his career norms? Have your say in the poll below:

How will Kyle Tucker finish the 2025 season?
Tucker won't completely turn things around, but will enjoy enough positive regression to match his career norms. 59.27% (2,689 votes)
Tucker's slump will continue, and he'll finish with the worst full season of his career. 25.04% (1,136 votes)
Tucker will turn things around and put up numbers similar to his first half production. 15.69% (712 votes)
Total Votes: 4,537
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