Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Originals

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

By | at

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Padres are tired of waiting to contend. But they face a tricky path to compiling a competitive roster in 2020.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Recently Removed From 40-Man Roster

Other Free Agents

[San Diego Padres depth chart | San Diego Padres payroll outlook]

It wouldn’t be terribly productive at this point to go into detail on the Padres’ recent struggles. The bottom line is that the team hasn’t cracked .500 since 2010, meaning that another losing season would make a full decade of futility. Chairman Ron Fowler is fed up. Manager Andy Green was canned. GM A.J. Preller’s seat is as hot as any executive in baseball.

The Friars kicked off their offseason by bringing in Jayce Tingler as skipper. He’s unproven, but plenty familiar to Preller from their time together with the Rangers. Preller spoke of his new manager’s “ability to develop talent and help players reach their potential at the Major League level.” Whether Tingler is the right man to drive progress remains to be seen.

Otherwise, Preller has been hard at work doing some 40-man bonsai pruning in advance of another winter full of tough Rule 5 decisions. The balancing act is especially fraught this time around given the clear mandate to win. It’s awfully difficult to carry armloads of intriguing but largely future-oriented players on the 40-man when you need to max out the 25-man roster. Ever-injured youngster Anderson Espinoza would be the poster boy here, but the Pads have a laundry list of others.

What’s most important to know about the situation for our purposes is: first, that the Padres have limited 40-man roster space to work with in adding players and, second, that the team has every reason to explore trades involving some of its marginal 40-man talent. Recall the club’s major summer move, in which Franmil Reyes and Logan Allen — MLB talents, both, but clearly not top priorities for the San Diego organization — were swapped out for a high-ceiling, near-majors youngster (Taylor Trammell) who doesn’t need to be protected until next winter.

That prospect capital will come in handy, but it remains to be seen how other organizations will view the long-heralded wave of talent that Preller has summoned. We don’t really even know how the organization views all of its young talent, as it’s still sifting through the margins of the 40-man in advance of the November 20th deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 draft. It stands to reason that Preller will look to deal some of the pieces he can’t protect rather than risking them in a year in which some teams will be emboldened to utilize their newly minted 26th roster spot to poach talent.

There’s one other reason to expect Preller to cut loose from a dealmaking perspective this winter: payroll constraints. The Padres have only once topped $100MM in Opening Day payroll, in Preller’s first full year on the job. Entering 2020, the club already has nearly reached nine figures in commitments, including the rest of what it owes Hector Olivera, before tabulating an arbitration class that could add another $20MM or so to the books. In other words, the Padres are already positioned to make a big move north in player expenditures, even before bringing in any new faces to the organization. Having added Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado in successive offseasons, after inking a long-term commitment to Wil Myers, this is a team that has by and large already taken most or all of its shots when it comes to top-of-the-market spending.

That’s a lot of background chatter before we get to looking at the actual roster pieces, but it’s necessary framing for the winter to come. Visions of hometown hero Stephen Strasburg are dancing in the heads not only of fans, but also of some within the Padres organization. There’s an obvious need on the roster and enormous marketing potential. But the organization will have to take a long, hard look at its balance sheets before it begins wooing Strasburg.

Adding that level of talent is sure to cost upwards of $25MM annually. But drop Strasburg on top of the rest of this roster, and you have an ace to lead a staff that’s suddenly dripping with upside. Strasburg, Chris Paddack, Dinelson Lamet, Garrett Richards, Joey Luchessi. There’s a blend of depth and upside in the other youthful starter candidates available, including Cal Quantrill, Nick Margevicius, Adrian Morejon, Michael Baez, and Ronald Bolanos. One or two of the overfill arms could be dealt; others could end up in the pen or at Triple-A. There are some injury and performance uncertainties here. But the summer trade market can help plug gaps. And who’s to say that premium prospects Mackenzie Gore and Luis Patino won’t force their way into the picture?

Trouble is, will that be enough? And is there room to add other pieces after ramping payroll into a whole new stratosphere? The Padres could get creative with shedding other obligations. The obvious target to move is Myers, who just hasn’t hit and doesn’t quite fit. It was never entirely clear why the team decided he was the right piece to fix on the roster, only then to make an investment in Hosmer that never seemed particularly likely to pay off on the field. But the die is cast. Now, the Friars can only seek to move as much of the Myers contract as possible. Surely some teams would have interest in a player with his established level of hitting ability, but his open-market value falls well shy of the $61MM he’s still owed. Getting another organization to take on cash would mean effectively selling some of that prized young talent that the Padres have been gathering in as much abundance as the tallies in the loss column.

Getting out from under some of the Myers money will be painful, but it is perhaps more plausible than some have suggested. Teams have managed such feats before. (Vernon Wells, anyone?) Otherwise, it isn’t as if it would be difficult to move on from several of the arbitration-eligible players. The Padres could cash in some pieces for far-away prospects, then re-commit some of the salary to shorter-term, presently better veterans in free agency or trades. Navigating that sort of approach will be tricky, to be sure, but it’s possible to imagine some creative moves that deliver an immediate performance boost without really adding much salary or even harming the future outlook. In some cases, the Padres might prefer the outlook of other, still-rising talent in 2021 and beyond.

The biggest single arb hit comes in the form of Yates, who has morphed into one of the game’s most dominant relievers. If there’s a truly interesting scenario that could allow the Padres to make monster additions, it might well involve the 32-year-old. It is hard to part with an exceptional late-inning pen piece when you want to contend, but this winter will be all about balancing priorities. Contenders would line up for Yates, whose $6.5MM salary would be a pittance to many other organizations. The Pads could put that cash to use elsewhere. And (much more) importantly, they could name their price, perhaps while also packaging other pieces in some kind of blockbuster arrangement. The San Diego contract asset mix screams three-team deal, particularly with Preller at the helm. Perhaps there’s a way he can land a Strasburg-level player by orchestrating a multi-faceted roster re-working that isn’t really even specifically foreseeable.

Or, perhaps, another major, concentrated expenditure isn’t the way to go. The Padres have a lot to lose in a blockbuster signing of an older starting pitcher. And they still have some obvious needs in other areas of the roster that might go largely unaddressed if they spend much of the winter and much of their available funding to lure Strasburg. What’s the alternative vision?

The desire to add a high-quality starter would still be present, of course. But it’d have to be a player that doesn’t check all the boxes. The Padres could be a part of the bidding war we forsee for Zack Wheeler, take an injury risk with Hyun-jin Ryu, or perhaps even bring in Madison Bumgarner to lead the staff. Those players will all still cost big money. Working out a trade makes better sense for the pocketbook, but figures to be complicated. Robbie Ray (pure rental), Matthew Boyd (multiple arb years), and Caleb Smith (still pre-arb) could perhaps be had. These lefties possess intriguing, strikeout-driven ceilings but are hardly surefire top-of-the-rotation fixtures. Ditto Corey Kluber, who isn’t cheap and is coming off of an injury-wrecked season. Prying loose Jon Gray or German Marquez from the Rockies might hold appeal, but it’ll be tough to structure a trade with the division rivals unless it helps alleviate their payroll woes and delivers real talent back to Colorado. Unless a surprise hurler comes available, it doesn’t appear as if there’ll be much star power to be had via trade.

A more modest approach to the rotation won’t fully satisfy in that arena, but would leave more organizational resources to work with in boosting a tepid offensive unit. The left side of the infield is in excellent shape with Machado and young centerpiece Fernando Tatis, who’ll hopefully return with his customary vigor after an unfortunate injury. There isn’t much the Padres can do at first base but hope that Hosmer somehow breaks out of his moribund performance to date.

Otherwise? Not much is locked down. It’s a similar story in most every other area of the position-player mix: the Padres have dabbled with several players, in some cases for multiple seasons, but still can’t really be sure whether they have a key piece or a middling performer that needs to be replaced. There’s an argument in each situation to stick with the internal piece or to dump that player in favor of an upgrade.

Let’s start with the outfield group, which no longer includes Franmil Reyes and Travis Jankowski but does still have plenty of other players who have intrigued, disappointed, grown, and/or stalled at various points in time, but not yet fully established themselves as steady MLB regulars. That’s especially true of Myers, who’ll have to fit somewhere in the corner unit if he isn’t dealt. Hunter Renfroe has power for days and even graded quite well with the glove last year, but his on-base skills remain highly questionable and he wasn’t even quite a league-average hitter in 2019. Manuel Margot is the top option in center but has never shown he can hit right-handed pitching. Josh Naylor has an interesting lefty bat, even after a tepid MLB debut, but he’s a work in progress in the field. It’d be fun to see what Franchy Cordero can do, but the left-handed hitter hasn’t stayed healthy. Edward Olivares? Your guess is as good as mine. That covers the existing 40-man options. There’s also Trammell, who’ll be given more time to grow at Triple-A, and a group of players that are candidates for 40-man roster space (and Rule 5 protection): Buddy Reed, Jorge Ona, Michael Gettys. The tools are intriguing, but it’d be a huge reach to assume that any of these players will be ready for a significant contribution in a must-win season.

Despite the abundance of internal possibilities, MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell has stated that he believes the Pads could add two new outfield pieces to the roster. It’s not hard to see why, as this organization can’t just rotate through players to see what sticks if it really wants to ensure contention. Viewed through this lens, you can see why we picked the Pads to land on Corey Dickerson in free agency. While we named the San Diego organization as a viable landing spot for a number of top-fifty free agents, the reliable left-handed hitter is the only player we predicted them to secure. That’s a reflection of both the fact that the Padres will need to do a lot of work on the trade market and the team’s clear need for a trusty bat. Much as the team may wonder if Nick Martini could provide something similar at a fraction of the cost, he didn’t manage a single home run in 96 plate appearances last year with the Padres. Dickerson has a history of injury woes, but there’s depth on hand if a need arises and the team would do well to secure the services of such a potentially cost-efficient, high-quality hitter.

It would certainly be preferable for the Padres to add a regular center fielder, perhaps bumping Margot into a reserve role (if not out of the picture altogether). But pickings are slim, especially in free agency. The trade market features Starling Marte, first and foremost, though there are a few other potential targets. Jackie Bradley Jr. stands out as a rental possibility. Perhaps the Rays would discuss Kevin Kiermaier. There are some other names that are more of the bounceback/platoon variety. No doubt Preller and co. are familiar with Japanese star Shogo Akiyama; he’d be a sensible target if the club’s scouts think he can hit in the bigs.

In the infield, there are still questions as well — though perhaps more in the way of existing solutions. The Pads have dabbled with changing things up behind the dish, though a Francisco Mejia-Austin Hedges tandem still seems like a solid enough choice. If the team is ready to move on from Hedges, it could seek to cash him in and replace him with a low-cost veteran. Or the club could just rely on Luis Torrens and Austin Allen to fill things out behind the dish, with a non-roster veteran or two brought into camp to compete, mentor, and add depth.

At second base, 22-year-old Luis Urias has probably shown enough in the upper minors to warrant a further MLB trial, even if his first 302 plate appearances at the game’s highest level haven’t gone as hoped. The club has Ian Kinsler under contract for a veteran infield piece, though he’s coming off of a tough year, with Greg Garcia, Ty France, and others available as well. You can certainly advocate for a change at second base, particularly with a market flooded with options, though it’d likely only make sense to add here if the team intends to utilize Urias as a trade piece.

That leaves the bullpen. As noted already, there is some potential for spillover arms to function in a relief capacity. And Preller has shown an affinity for finding real treasure in unusual places, though for every Yates and Brad Hand there has been a Bryan Mitchell or an Aaron Loup (among others) that just hasn’t worked out. Still, you’d hate to rely too much on getting more for less when it comes to securing winnable games. There’s little question the Padres will need to capitalize on every opportunity if they’re to stay in the hunt for a Wild Card in a National League that’s full of contending outfits.

Thing is, the relief unit — even beyond Yates — was a pretty good group in 2019. As a whole, it rated tops in all of baseball by measure of SIERA and second in terms of xFIP. Yates had a big role in that, without question, but he couldn’t do it alone. The club will need to replace the solid innings from the departing Craig Stammen and Robbie Erlin, but it can add back a sturdy veteran without breaking the bank while also trusting that the bevy of internal possibilities — led by Matt Strahm, Trey Wingenter, Andres Munoz, and Luis Perdomo but featuring quite a few others with intriguing cases — can continue to improve. Trading away Yates will only make sense if there’s a truly compelling return, but it would also open opportunities. No shortage of free agent relievers would love a shot at throwing high-leverage innings in a relatively low-stress, low-run-scoring environment. (They say the weather is pleasant in San Diego, also.)

There’s still a lot to like about the volume of talent in the San Diego organization. But Preller needs to show that he can make that into a major-league winner — and fast. Anything shy of an exciting campaign that ends at or above .500 would be a marked disappointment, and could lead to a front office change. It’ll be fun to see this outfit tackle the challenge.

2019-20 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions

By | at

MLB Trade Rumors is proud to present our 14th annual Top 50 Free Agents list! For the entire list of free agents, plus the ability to filter by signing status, position, signing team, and qualifying offer status, check out our mobile-friendly free agent tracker here.

New to MLBTR? You can follow us on Twitter, like us on Facebook, follow us on Instagram, and download our free app for iOS and Android.  Want to make your own picks for cash prizes?  Click here to enter our contest!

MLBTR writers Steve Adams, Jeff Todd, and Connor Byrne joined me in this collaboration, debating free agent contracts and destinations for many hours. We vetted these as much as possible, but with 50 predictions and a volatile free agent and trade marketplace, we know we’ll be off on some. Let us know what you think in the comment section! On to our Top 50 free agents:

1.  Gerrit Cole – Angels.  Eight years, $256MM.  If you could grow the perfect starting pitcher in a lab, the result would look a lot like Gerrit Cole. He has a strong case to be considered the best pitcher in baseball after a second consecutive dominant year for the Astros. The 6’4″, 225-pound righty led all of MLB in wins above replacement and strikeout rate, and he also possesses excellent control of his four pitches. This year he maintained an average fastball velocity over 97 miles per hour, second among starters. Cole paced the American League in ERA (2.50) in addition to leading the Majors  in SIERA (2.48). Cole is a true ace, going deep into games and reeling off a quality start nearly 80% of the time. The closest thing to a flaw in Cole’s profile is his occasional proclivity toward the home run, as he’s a flyball pitcher whose 2019 home run rate ranked 34th among qualified starters. That minor “blemish” notwithstanding, Cole stands a good chance of besting his rotation-mater, Justin Verlander, for AL Cy Young honors.

Cole was drafted 28th overall out of his California high school by the Yankees in 2008, but the pitcher chose to honor his commitment to UCLA. Cole’s decision proved to be the correct one financially, as he was drafted first overall by the Pirates three years later. By 2013, Cole reached the Majors, though he missed significant time in 2014 with shoulder fatigue and a lat strain. Cole posted only one dominant season for the Pirates, finishing fourth in the 2015 NL Cy Young voting. He missed time again in 2016 with a triceps strain and elbow inflammation. Cole rebounded with good health in 2017, posting a solid if unspectacular final season for the Bucs.

With two years of club control remaining and escalating arbitration salaries, the Pirates decided to cash Cole in for more controllable players, trading him to the Astros in January 2018. The Astros were able to unlock Cole’s talent, urging significant changes in his approach on the mound. Now, he heads into his age-29 season with agent Scott Boras seeking the largest pitching contract in MLB history.

Two pitching records from the 2014-15 offseason are under threat from Cole: David Price’s total outlay of $217MM and Zack Greinke’s $34.4MM average annual value. Cole is a near-lock to smash through the $217MM barrier, and he has at least some chance of topping Greinke’s AAV mark. A $35MM salary seems more likely if Cole is to accept a seven-year term. It’s also possible that a team might prefer to do an eight-year contract, which could bring down the AAV and the accompanying luxury tax hit. We haven’t seen a significant eight-year contract for a pitcher since Mike Hampton signed with the Rockies 19 years ago. The Astros will likely entertain ways of keeping their ace, but with a burgeoning payroll, owner Jim Crane wouldn’t even commit to attempting to sign him when asked in early October.  Cole, for his part, seemingly left the Astros in the dust almost immediately following the team’s Game 7 loss, donning a Boras Corporation hat for his reluctant postgame interview.  The Angels, with a huge need for starting pitching and a hometown advantage, will surely make a run at Cole. They could be joined by the Yankees, Dodgers, Nationals, White Sox, Twins, Phillies, Rangers, Cubs, and more in an ownership-level pursuit that seems likely to drag into the new year.

2.  Anthony Rendon – Nationals.  Seven years, $235MM.  Rendon emerged as one of the five best position players in baseball over the last three seasons, yet the Nationals’ understated third baseman made his first All-Star team this year. Perhaps that’s because of the well-rounded nature of his contributions, with doubles, walks, and stellar defense rather than sheer home run power. Rendon did set a career high with 34 home runs in 2019, though that was a feat accomplished by a whopping 35 players in this juiced-ball season. Previously, he’d maxed out at 25 homers in 2017.

Rendon was drafted sixth overall by the Nationals out of Rice University in 2011, five picks after Cole as part of star-studded draft. He carried a bit of an injury history with him even out of college, but once he reached the Majors in 2013 he maintained pretty good health outside of his 2015 campaign. Since then, Rendon has averaged 146 games per season. His timing is excellent, with a career-best 7.0 fWAR and 154 wRC+ this year. One potential knock on the low-key Rendon is his reputation as a player who treats baseball more like a job than a passion. He’s said he considers baseball “too long and boring” to watch, eschews attention, and has shown signs that he might prefer to retire on the younger side.

Rendon will turn 30 in June, so a seven-year contract would pay him through his age-36 season. His third base counterpart in Colorado, Nolan Arenado, was extended only through age 34. Even Manny Machado signed through age 35 on the open market. We know a seven-year contract is at least on the table, since the Nationals offered that term and $210-215MM (with deferrals) in early September, according to Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post. Arenado’s deal, signed in February, included seven years and $234MM in new money, so Rendon may be looking to top that mark. ESPN’s Buster Olney noted in mid-October, “Some friends of Rendon believe that he’s more interested in a shorter-term deal — perhaps a higher salary for a four- or five-year contract — because he might not be devoted to the idea of playing for as long as he possibly can.”

The short-term possibility could put the Dodgers in play for Rendon, as they notably offered Bryce Harper an AAV of approximately $45MM over a four-year period, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi back in February. The Nationals remain the favorite for Rendon, as Harper’s departure left them capacity to sign their third baseman and they’ve already made an aggressive attempt. The Rangers, Phillies, Braves, Cardinals, and Angels could also be suitors.

3.  Stephen Strasburg – Nationals.  Six years, $180MM.  Back on Opening Day, Strasburg’s opt-out decision seemed anywhere from questionable to flat-out unlikely. His 2018 season was a solid but injury-shortened season that saw him toss 130 innings of 3.74 ERA ball with peripherals that largely supported that unspectacular earned run average. He certainly didn’t have a bad year, but the thought of him topping four years and $100MM in an open-market setting didn’t seem particularly plausible.

Fast forward six months, and Strasburg is a World Series MVP who posted a 3.32 ERA over 209 regular-season innings. His strikeout and walk rates continued to be excellent, and at a time when the juiced ball turned the entire league into 30-homer threats, Strasburg cut back on his 2018 home-run rate while logging the second-highest grounder rate of his career. His postseason heroics were the stuff of legend; in 36 1/3 innings, Strasburg pitched to a 1.98 ERA with a 47-to-4 K/BB ratio — including a gutsy 8 1/3-inning effort in a win-or-go-home Game 6 against the Astros in Houston. This is the Strasburg the Nats dreamed of when taking him first overall back in 2009. He’s now posted two six-WAR seasons in his past three years.

There aren’t too many teams in baseball that will plausibly go to this level for a pitcher. Strasburg’s market should have a direct overlap with Cole, meaning that the Nationals, Phillies, Dodgers, Yankees, Twins, White Sox, Rangers and Cubs could all come into play.  The Padres seem likely to be involved in Strasburg’s market as well, given his geographic ties. By all accounts, he’s loved his time in D.C., and while paying both Strasburg and Rendon would require an astonishing commitment from the owners Ted and Mark Lerner, it’s a lot easier to write those checks coming off a World Series victory.

4.  Zack Wheeler – Phillies.  Five years, $100MM.  For teams seeking ace potential without the Gerrit Cole price tag, Wheeler is the top choice. Though the 29-year-old’s 3.96 ERA this season doesn’t jump off the page, he’s displayed the ability to miss bats and added a career-best walk rate. Over his past 350 innings, Wheeler is sporting a 3.47 ERA and a 3.27 FIP with a strikeout per inning and just 2.4 walks per nine. He’s also one of the hardest-throwing starting pitchers in the game, averaging 96.7 mph this year on his fastball. The Statcast profile on Wheeler is strong, with above average fastball and curveball spin rate and low exit velocity and hard-hit percentage.

Wheeler was drafted sixth overall by the Giants out of high school in 2009, joining the Mets in a July 2011 trade for Carlos Beltran. He had Tommy John surgery in March 2015 and wound up going two and a half years between Major League starts. Wheeler has made 60 starts in the last two campaigns, so the surgery is firmly in the rearview mirror.

Though the free agent market has tightened up considerably since Jeff Samardzija signed four years ago, there would seem to be enough competition to get Wheeler to the heights of that five-year, $90MM contract or even take it to the next level. Wheeler received a qualifying offer from the Mets, who seem unlikely to be able to fit him into their budget. The Phillies, Twins, Nationals, Braves, Brewers, Cubs, Giants, Dodgers, Padres, Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox, Astros, Angels, and Rangers could be part of his robust market.

5.  Josh Donaldson – Rangers.  Three years, $75MM.  After an injury-shortened 2018 season, Donaldson bet on himself by signing a hefty one-year, $23MM deal with the Braves.  The former MVP returned to glory with a 4.9 WAR campaign, playing in 155 games.  He posted a strong 132 wRC+ with his signature excellent third base defense.  Five-WAR seasons were the floor for Donaldson from 2013-17, when he starred for the A’s and Blue Jays.  Statcast underlines the fact that Donaldson has returned to form, as he ranked seventh in MLB in average exit velocity and 11th in hard hit percentage.

Unlike last winter, Donaldson has been tagged with a qualifying offer.  The slugging, slick-fielding third baseman turns 34 in December, likely limiting him to a three-year, high-AAV contract.  If the Braves balk, the Rangers, Nationals, Phillies, Brewers, Cardinals, Twins, and Angels could be in the mix.

6.  Madison Bumgarner – Twins.  Four years, $72MM.  Bumgarner bounced back with 207 2/3 innings this year after missing significant time in each of the two previous seasons. An April 2017 dirt bike accident resulted in three months lost to a shoulder injury, and then Bumgarner broke his hand in a 2018 Cactus League game after being hit by a comebacker. Bumgarner proved those series of unfortunate events were behind him by making 34 starts in 2019.

From 2011-16, Bumgarner was a lock for 30+ starts, serving as one of baseball’s best regular season pitchers and a postseason legend. Though his Giants haven’t appeared in the playoffs since 2016, Bumgarner sports over 100 innings of 2.11 ERA ball in the postseason to back up his three rings. He hasn’t quite maintained the strikeout rate of his heyday, and he can be prone to home runs, but Bumgarner is only 30 years old and has plenty left in the tank.

The Giants’ brief flirtation with a Wild Card run in July worked to Bumgarner’s detriment as a free agent, as it prevented a trade that would have made him ineligible for a qualifying offer. Now, Bumgarner must navigate the market with the added cost of his signing team losing a draft pick. He’d still be a welcome addition to just about any pitching staff, and his list of suitors should be similar to that of Wheeler. Some of those teams may even prefer Bumgarner, but he’s not an asset on the rise in the way that Wheeler looks to be.

7.  Yasmani Grandal – Reds.  Four years, $68MM.  In each of the last two years, Grandal has trailed only J.T. Realmuto for the highest WAR among catchers. Grandal is the best-hitting catcher in baseball over the last two seasons with a 123 wRC+, a mark that would look good for a player at any position but is downright Herculean compared to the average catcher’s 84 wRC+ in that time. On the defensive side, Grandal has caught more innings than anyone over the last two seasons and continually rates as one of the game’s best pitch framers.

Back in January, Grandal signed a surprising one-year, $18.25MM contract with the Brewers. Though his market was depressed by a qualifying offer and perhaps some high-profile gaffes in last year’s playoffs, the backstop still received plenty of multiyear offers, including a four-year proposal from the Mets in excess of $50MM. Grandal explained in January that average annual value was important to him: “These are guys who have established a market and pay levels for a particular tier of catchers like myself. I felt l would be doing a disservice taking some of the deals that were offered even though they were slightly more long term.”

It certainly appears Grandal’s bet will pay off, as even a three-year, $42MM deal would put him ahead of the Mets offer he spurned. Grandal turns 31 this month and has a good shot at a four-year deal. This time, he hits the market on a positive note and without the anchor of a qualifying offer. The Brewers will likely attempt to re-sign him, but the Reds, Nationals, Braves, Mets, Rays, White Sox, Angels, and Rangers could also be in the mix.

8.  Nicholas Castellanos – White Sox.  Four years, $58MM.  Castellanos is the best outfield bat on the market this winter. His 126 wRC+ over the past two seasons ranks 26th in baseball, only a bit shy of big names like Kris Bryant, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Bryce Harper. Playing in cavernous Comerica Park, Castellanos never reached 30 home runs in a season, but he led MLB in doubles this year and ranked fifth last year. The Tigers sent Castellanos to the Cubs at the trade deadline this year, which ended up having dual benefits: it erased his qualifying offer eligibility, and he went absolutely nuts with a 154 wRC+ and 16 home runs for Chicago in 225 plate appearances. Plus, Castellanos doesn’t turn 28 until March, making him the youngest prominent free agent and 15 months younger than Marcell Ozuna.

On the flip side, one reason trade interest was limited in Castellanos this summer is his suspect defense. After four years of below average third base defense, Castellanos moved to right field in 2019 and remained subpar there. Among those with at least 1,500 innings in right field over the last two years, Castellanos ranks dead last in ultimate zone rating and defensive runs saved. It’s definitely worth noting, though, that virtually every defensive metric of note reflected improvement from 2018 to 2019. Castellanos went from -19 to -9 in DRS, -12.9 to -4.4 in Ultimate Zone Rating and -24 to -7 in Statcast’s Outs Above Average. Scott Boras is surely going to try to sell him as a player whose defensive skills are on the rise along with his bat. Whether he can succeed remains to be seen.

Even if Castellanos just is who he’s been, the result in the short-term is still a solid three WAR type player — albeit one who fits better on an American League team. The Cubs remain an option, and the White Sox, Marlins, Reds, Giants, Diamondbacks, Padres, Indians, and Angels could be possibilities.

9.  Hyun-Jin Ryu – Rangers.  Three years, $54MM.  Ryu’s results the last two years are hard to beat. He won the NL ERA crown with a 2.32 mark this year after posting a 1.97 ERA in 15 starts in 2018. Ryu works at around 91 miles per hour, but he’s in the 96th percentile for exit velocity allowed, meaning batters aren’t squaring him up despite the lack of premium velocity. He was consistently excellent in 2019, turning in a quality start more than three-quarters of the time. The southpaw turns 33 in March and should score a solid contract despite his age and lengthy injury history.

After a successful career in the Korea Baseball Organization, Ryu was posted by the Hanwha Eagles and the Dodgers won his negotiating rights in 2012. Following a couple of excellent seasons for the Dodgers, Ryu required shoulder and elbow surgeries and missed almost all of the 2015-16 seasons.  After his strong half-season in 2018, the Dodgers issued a qualifying offer, and Ryu accepted. This year, he reached 180 innings for the first time since his rookie campaign and should receive Cy Young votes.

Ryu will be considered a significant injury risk, but he offers the chance at front-of-the-rotation results with a contract in the range of Rich Hill’s deal from three years ago. The Dodgers may look to retain him, but otherwise the Rangers, Nationals, Braves, Brewers, Cubs, Giants, Padres, Red Sox, Yankees, Twins, Astros, and Angels could be suitors.  Ryu’s market will be aided by the fact that he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer, unlike the other top starting pitchers.

10.  Jake Odorizzi – Twins.  Three years, $51MM.  Odorizzi, 30 in March, blossomed in 2019 and made his first All-Star team. The righty struck out more than 27 percent of batters faced, which was by far a career-best and good for 21st in baseball among those with 150 innings. Odorizzi also has an excellent track record of health, making at least 28 starts in each of the past six seasons. More encouragingly, he’s never been on the IL due to an arm injury.

Odorizzi will not save a team’s bullpen, however, as he ranked 80th in baseball at 5.3 innings per start (minimum 100 innings). Perhaps in today’s game, where teams prefer not to let a starter go three times through the batting order, Odorizzi’s “five and dive” reputation is less of a detriment. He’s also been tagged with a qualifying offer, which will probably stunt his market more than anything. Still, plenty of teams will be shopping in the starting pitching middle class, and Odorizzi is one of the best within that bracket.

11.  Marcell Ozuna – Giants.  Three years, $45MM.  Ozuna’s market figures to be similar to that of Castellanos. Ozuna does have one huge season on his resume: his 2017 campaign for the Marlins wherein he posted a career-best 143 wRC+ with 37 home runs. Miami traded him to the Cardinals afterward, and his offense in St. Louis was pedestrian. Ozuna’s 108 wRC+ over the past two seasons is worse than a more affordable free agent like Yasiel Puig. Plus, unlike Castellanos, he’s been saddled with a qualifying offer. Ozuna’s arm pretty much limits him to left field, where he has received above-average defensive marks.

There is a silver lining here, and it’s in Ozuna’s Statcast numbers. Ozuna’s average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage were both in the 93rd percentile or better this year, suggesting that his current skill level will produce better results in the future. Plus, he turns 29 this month, so he’s young enough to present some upside. Assuming Ozuna turns down his qualifying offer from the Cardinals, he’s expected to sign elsewhere. The Giants, Marlins, Reds, Padres, Indians, Tigers, and Royals could make sense.

12.  Didi Gregorius – Reds.  Three years, $42MM.  A Curacao native who was born in Amsterdam, Gregorius was a rising shortstop prospect with a rocket arm and below average power when he was sent from the Reds to the Diamondbacks as part of a major three-team deal in December 2012.  After a couple of lackluster seasons in Arizona, the Yankees acquired Gregorius in another three-team deal, boldly installing him as Derek Jeter’s replacement.  The team was able to unlock Gregorius’ power, as he hit 72 home runs from 2016-18.  In 2017-18, Gregorius totaled 8.9 fWAR – third in all of baseball and ahead of Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Javier Baez, Trea Turner, and Carlos Correa.  During that time he provided a large impact on both sides of the ball, with a 115 wRC+ and his typical excellent defense.  However, Gregorius injured his elbow during the 2018 ALDS, requiring Tommy John surgery in October of that year.  He made his 2019 season debut on June 7th.

Gregorius’ bat did not return to previous levels in 2019, with a 84 wRC+ after a particularly rough September.  With a normal offseason during which Gregorius will turn 30, there’s a good chance he’ll return to form as one of the game’s best shortstops.  Plus, the Yankees declined to make a qualifying offer, so he hits the market unencumbered.  Though solid multiyear deals will be offered, Gregorius’ best play might be to take a strong one-year deal and re-enter the market.  Should the Yankees choose to install Gleyber Torres as their regular shortstop in 2020, Gregorius could land with the Reds, Brewers, Marlins, or Phillies.

13.  Will Smith – Twins.  Three years, $42MM.  Smith may be the most coveted reliever on the free agent market this winter. The 30-year-old southpaw made his first All-Star team this year, serving as the Giants’ closer and racking up 34 saves. Though he works around 93 miles per hour, Smith has been piling up strikeouts for the last two seasons. During that time he’s punched out nearly 36 percent of batters faced, which ranks seventh among relievers with at least 100 innings. And it’s not as if those punchouts came from out of nowhere. He’s improved since the start of 2018, but Smith has whiffed a third of the hitters he’s faced since moving to the bullpen back in 2013.

Much like Bumgarner, Smith would have benefited from a midseason trade. Now, a qualifying offer puts a drag on his market and could get in the way of a four-year deal. He should still be immensely popular, with the Twins, Nationals, Phillies, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays among the many teams seeking bullpen help.

14.  Dallas Keuchel – White Sox.  Three years, $39MM.  Coming off a solid 2018 season for the Astros, Keuchel became the poster boy for last winter’s free agent freeze. The soft-tossing southpaw waited until after the June amateur draft to sign, removing the qualifying offer that helped dragged down his market.

Keuchel’s work for the Braves in 19 starts was acceptable but not exceptional. He posted a solid 3.75 ERA, but that included his typical lackluster strikeout rate and more than a hit per inning. Keuchel did shine in groundball rate, ranking first in MLB among those with 100 innings. Rare as flyballs were for Keuchel, 24 percent of his left the yard, so he was still homer-prone in the end. How much of that is attributable to the juiced ball is difficult to ascertain, but he’s never struggled to that extent. In fact, as recently as 2018, only 11.3 percent of Keuchel’s flyballs became home runs.

Keuchel is not eligible for a qualifying offer this time around, so he should be able to find a multiyear deal from a team looking for a veteran innings eater. Given last winter’s fiasco, he’ll be best served keeping an open mind to all offers, including those from rebuilding clubs.

15.  Cole Hamels – Braves.  Two years, $30MM.  Hamels is headed toward the twilight of his career, with his 36th birthday around the corner. The southpaw change-up artist has an admirable career record. His 39.3 WAR from 2007-15 ranks sixth in MLB, nudged between likely Hall of Famers Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke and CC Sabathia. Hamels is still an above average starting pitcher, as evidenced by a 3.30 ERA in 39 starts for the Cubs since they traded for him at last year’s deadline. His Chicago renaissance was in full swing for his first 16 starts of 2019, featuring a 2.92 ERA, but an oblique strain in late June knocked him out for over a month. Hamels posted a 5.79 ERA in 10 starts after his return, creating some cause for concern.

Though Hamels’ days as a 210-inning workhorse are probably long gone, he’s a solid addition if he can provide 300 innings over the life of a two-year deal. The Cubs declined to issue a qualifying offer, so Hamels’ first-ever foray into free agency will be uninhibited. The Braves, Phillies, Brewers, Giants, Dodgers, Padres, Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox, Twins, Astros, Angels, and Mariners could be options, though the veteran Hamels would presumably prefer to latch on with a contending club at this point of his career.

16.  Jose Abreu – White Sox.  Two years, $28MM.  Six years ago, the White Sox signed Abreu to a six-year, $68MM that was a record for an international free agent at the time and still stands as the largest contract in franchise history.  Abreu, a Cuban defector who turns 33 in January, has been a steady presence for Chicago over those six years, averaging 150 games, 30 home runs, and 102 RBI per season.  He won the AL Rookie of the Year in 2014 and made the All-Star team three times.  By measure of wRC+, Abreu is at 116 over the past two seasons, and that represents a reasonable expectation over the next two.  The White Sox greatly value Abreu’s clubhouse presence, and a return seems a near-lock.  The team’s qualifying offer was a starting point.  If multiyear talks go awry and Abreu turns down the QO, the draft pick loss plus the first baseman’s age could serve to limit interest.  Still, the Marlins, Nationals, Brewers, Red Sox, Twins, and Rangers could be options in the unlikely scenario of a White Sox divorce.

17.  Michael Pineda – Brewers.  Two years, $22MM.  The Twins signed Pineda to a two-year, $10MM deal in December 2017, with the understanding that the righty was a 2019 stash due to Tommy John surgery. That worked out mostly as planned, as the big righty provided 26 starts of 4.01 ERA ball before being slapped with a 60-game PED suspension in September. The suspension was ill-timed not only due to his impending free agency but also because there could now be some skepticism as to the validity of the 3.10 ERA, 9.3 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 he logged in 87 innings (15 starts) upon returning from a brief IL stint in mid-June.

At the same time, there’s cause to believe that Pineda’s case may be the rare suspension in which a banned substance was not related to PED use. According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, “He originally got an 80-game suspension, but it was reduced to 60 on appeal, as a compelling case was made that a banned diuretic he used was not a masking agent for PEDs.” As far as Pineda’s free agency goes, the main effect of the suspension is that he’ll miss the first 39 days of the 2020 season.  So, whoever signs him will have to accept a May debut.

Pineda, 31 in January, has generally posted solid strikeout rates, excellent control, and inflated home run rates in his career with the Mariners, Yankees, and Twins. Those trends continued in 2019, and he could fill the number three or four starter spot for quite a few clubs.  Plus, Pineda doesn’t come with a qualifying offer attached. He’s the type of starter that will have a broad market; non-contenders in search of innings with a tick of upside could find his price point palatable, and contending clubs could be enticed by the strong results he generated in his final 15 starts.

18.  Mike Moustakas – Braves.  Two years, $20MM.  If we keep predicting a multiyear deal for Moustakas, will he finally get one? Time will tell! Moose, who was hitting 38 home runs before everyone starting doing it, has signed consecutive one-year deals the last two winters. He’s not one to draw many walks, though he’s improved in that regard, and he’s smacked 101 home runs over the past three seasons. Moustakas’ third base defense rates as acceptable, and he’s even shown he’s capable of handling second base. It’s a solid 2-3 WAR package that could still be useful to the Brewers. The Braves, Nationals, Phillies, Orioles, Indians, Twins and Rangers could get involved as well.

19.  Kyle Gibson – Cubs.  Two years, $18MM.  Gibson was drafted 22nd overall by the Twins out of Mizzou in 2009, after he dropped down draft boards due to a stress fracture in his forearm.  At the time, Gibson was considered a possible future ace on the fast track to Minnesota. However, the righty went under the knife for Tommy John surgery in September 2011, delaying his big league debut until 2013. He was 25 years old by then, which is why he’s reaching free agency heading into his age-32 season. Gibson’s injury history also includes a shoulder strain in 2016.

Gibson made 188 starts in his Twins career spanning parts of seven seasons, displaying good durability and decent results. His strikeout and walk numbers have generally been sub-par or average. While Gibson’s strikeout rate has risen over the past two seasons, so too has the entire league’s. Where Gibson succeeds is in his ground-ball rate; in fact, his 50.6 percent mark over the past three seasons is the best among all big league pitchers who have thrown at least 500 innings. Unfortunately, an inordinate amount of Gibson’s fly-balls have left the yard, including more than 20 percent of them this year. Gibson was posting a decent 2019 season as of August 3rd, with his ERA down to 4.02, but he was rocked in his next five starts and hit the IL for ulcerative colitis.

Gibson feels his season-long gastrointestinal issues may stem from “E. coli that he contracted in the Caribbean during a volunteering trip,” according to Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. He lost upwards of 20 pounds last winter as a result and wasn’t fully able to put the weight back on for the ’19 season. Gibson has shown that at his best, he can make 30 starts and provide around 2.5 WAR, so he fits well in the Roark-Miley-Teheran-Porcello aisle of starting pitchers.

20.  Tanner Roark – Blue Jays.  Two years, $18MM.  Roark, a veteran of seven MLB seasons, has never landed on the injured list. He’s made at least 30 starts in five of the past six seasons, with the exception being 2015 when he was bumped to the bullpen upon the Nationals’ signing of Max Scherzer. His strikeout rate has ticked up over the years, though his lone positive Statcast data point is the excellent spin rate on his curveball.  Roark is a hittable 33-year-old righty with a 92 mile per hour fastball whose main attribute is his ability to take the ball every fifth day. It’s not a particularly sexy profile, but durable, league-average innings have value. Some of the less-appealing free agent destinations might be able to lure him with a two-year deal.

21.  Julio Teheran – Mariners.  Two years, $18MM.  Teheran made 222 starts for the Braves from 2013-19, a total that ranks fourth in all of baseball.  Teheran, 29 in January, made the All-Star team in 2014 and ’16.  Over the last three years, however, the righty has settled in as more of a 4.00 ERA type of innings eater.  Despite an ERA of 4.09 during that time, his SIERA has hovered closer to 5.00.  His control, once an asset, has slipped to an 11% BB rate – third-worst in MLB among qualified starters.  Teheran’s fastball velocity is down below 90 miles per hour on average, but he can at least boast of above average spin rates.  It’s difficult to get excited about Teheran despite his relative youth, but his durability has value.

22.  Will Harris – Cubs.  Two years, $18MM.  Harris, 35, might be the best MLB reliever you’ve barely heard of, at least until the playoffs this year. Since joining the Astros via a November 2014 waiver claim, Harris has posted 297 innings of 2.36 ERA ball. That mark ranks third in MLB over that time — ahead of Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, and various other well-compensated firemen. As a righty with a 92 mile per hour fastball and only 20 career saves, perhaps Harris’ anonymity makes sense. But Harris is a spin rate monster who specializes in weak contact. He’s got an excellent ground-ball rate and should be a popular free agent this winter even after allowing a pair of critical World Series homers (the latter of which was an improbable, barely-a-homer shot that came on a well-executed pitch; tip of the cap to Howie Kendrick…who we’ll get to in a bit).

23.  Drew Pomeranz – Dodgers.  Two years, $16MM.  Most free agent markets have a buzzworthy reliever, and this year it’s Pomeranz.  A former first round pick of the Indians, the southpaw had some solid seasons in relief for the A’s before finding his footing as a starter with the Padres and Red Sox.  Pomeranz posted a 3.32 ERA over 62 starts from 2016-17, but his 2018 season was decimated by a forearm flexor strain and biceps tendinitis.  He hooked on with the Giants for just a $1.5MM guarantee, but failed in a starting role for San Francisco and was shipped to the Brewers at the 2019 deadline.

From August 2nd onward, Pomeranz was an utterly dominant reliever for Milwaukee.  His fastball velocity ticked up to 95-96 miles per hour as Pomeranz struck out nearly half of batters faced, more than Josh Hader during that time.  The eye-opening showing, less than 30 innings in total, could even net Pomeranz a three-year deal.

24.  Wade Miley – Angels.  Two years, $16MM.  Miley is coming off a solid year for the Astros in which he posted a 3.98 ERA in 33 starts. The veteran southpaw, 33 this month, had a 3.06 ERA after his August 30th start in Toronto. Then the wheels came off, as he was clobbered for 28 hits and 21 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings over his next five starts and was left off the Astros’ ALCS and World Series rosters.

When Miley is going well, he succeeds by way of soft contact. This year he posted an 81st percentile hard-hit percentage and 75th percentile average exit velocity. Miley reinvented himself by ramping up the usage of his cutter, throwing the pitch more than 40 percent of the time starting in 2018 with the Brewers. As he explained last year to Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, “You suck enough in this game – and I did, for two straight years – I guess insanity is what comes to mind. I kept doing the same thing and expecting a different result and finally I was just like, ‘I’ve got to make an adjustment.’ That’s what I came up with.”

Despite the late-season swoon, the new version of Miley can provide stability at the back end of a starting rotation. With the exception of 2018, Miley made 29 or more starts each season dating back to 2012. The Angels, Braves, Phillies, Mets, Brewers, Cubs, Pirates, Blue Jays, White Sox, Twins, Giants, Mariners, or Rangers could be fits.

25.  Corey Dickerson – Padres.  Two years, $15MM.  Dickerson’s 127 wRC+ topped all free agent outfielders this year, though he did it in just 279 plate appearances due to a shoulder strain and a broken foot. A left-handed hitter, Dickerson has been at least 15 percent above league average with the bat in each of the past three seasons. He’s not big on drawing walks but makes up for it with a relatively low strikeout rate. Dickerson has spent the vast majority of his time in left field, with varying defensive results. He rated poorly in Tampa Bay, which contributed heavily to the Rays’ decision to trade him, only to post brilliant metrics in 2018 and win a Gold Glove Award. He could be a useful addition for teams like the Padres, Marlins, Reds, Giants, Orioles, White Sox, Indians, Tigers and Royals.

26.  Travis d’Arnaud – Brewers.  Two years, $14MM.  D’Arnaud, 31 in February, was the 37th overall pick by the Phillies out of high school back in 2007. Drafted for his defensive abilities at catcher, d’Arnaud surpassed his younger brother, Chase, as a prospect and was traded to the Blue Jays in the Phillies’ December 2009 deal for the late, great Roy Halladay. As d’Arnaud’s prospect rating continued to rise, he was included in a second major trade three years later, joining Noah Syndergaard as part of the Mets’ return for R.A. Dickey.

D’Arnaud suffered a partially torn posterior cruciate ligament in his left knee at Triple-A in the season leading up to his Mets trade, and it was a sign of things to come. The touted backstop’s Mets career spanned 407 games over parts of seven seasons and was wracked by injuries, from a broken foot in 2013 to elbow surgery in 2014 to a broken hand and sprained elbow in 2015 to a rotator cuff strain in 2016 to a bruised wrist in 2017 to Tommy John surgery in 2018. From 2015-18, d’Arnaud had an IL stint lasting at least three weeks in every season. Yikes.

Somehow, once the Mets finally gave up on him in April of this year, d’Arnaud’s fortunes changed. After a one-game stop-off with the Dodgers, d’Arnaud was dealt to the Rays and posted a 107 wRC+ in 365 plate appearances. In June and July, d’Arnaud was not only the best-hitting catcher in baseball, he was the fifth-best hitter in all of MLB. He tailed off significantly after that, but importantly was able to avoid the IL. Notably, for a catcher returning from Tommy John surgery, he threw out an above-average 29 percent of attempted thieves on the bases this season.  He’s also long been considered an average or better framer. Compared to veterans Robinson Chirinos and Jason Castro, d’Arnaud offers upside along with ample injury risk. The Rays still make sense, and d’Arnaud could also be of interest to the Brewers, Nationals, Pirates, Tigers, Astros, Angels, and Rangers.

27.  Chris Martin – Phillies.  Two years, $14MM.  Martin has one of the most fascinating journeys of any player on this list. As outlined by Tim Tucker in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Martin was drafted out of both high school and community college, but turned those offers down in hopes of improving his stock. Instead, he suffered a torn labrum in college and basically quit baseball after his shoulder wasn’t responding properly. Working at places like Lowe’s and UPS in his 20s, Martin realized his shoulder didn’t hurt anymore, and forged a path from independent baseball to a Major League debut at age 27,  to a successful two-year stint with the Nippon Ham Fighters, and back home to Texas on a two-year, $4MM free agent deal. In Martin’s first year for the Rangers, he was limited to 41 2/3 innings because of forearm irritation as well as hamstring, knee, and groin injuries. This year, he ascended to the team’s closer role before being traded to the Braves at the deadline. Martin ended his season on a minor down note, as he was pulled from the NLDS with oblique tightness.

Martin’s stats this year jump off the page. In 55 2/3 innings, he punched out 65 batters and walked just five, with a 50 percent ground-ball rate to boot. His fastball averaged nearly 96 miles per hour. On the worrisome side, he was in the 17th percentile for hard-hit percentage, and more than a fifth of his fly-balls left the yard in his time with the Rangers. Plus, there’s that injury history.  As free agent relievers go, Martin, who’ll turn 34 next June, sits on the higher end of the risk/reward spectrum.

28.  Daniel Hudson – Nationals.  Two years, $12MM.  Hudson, 33 in March, signed a minor league deal with the Angels in February, was released in March, signed for a million dollars with the Blue Jays a few days later…and then found himself recording the final out of the 2019 World Series with the Nationals. His roller-coaster season was, in many ways, emblematic of the Nationals organization in 2019 and made for a great story. It also makes for a nice free agent case.

On the season for the Blue Jays and Nationals, Hudson posted a fine 2.47 ERA in 73 frames — his best since switching to relief in 2015 — but his strikeout and walk rates weren’t anything special.  He did improve his control upon the trade to the Nats. It should also be highlighted that he’s not only one of the hardest-throwing free agent relievers this winter — he also boasts 90th percentile spin rate on his fastball and curve.

Hudson is the rare active MLB pitcher who has twice undergone Tommy John surgery; fewer than 10 hurlers can make that claim.  Hudson’s TJS procedures are more than six years behind him, and he already received a two-year free agent deal since, but he did miss a significant portion of the 2018 season with forearm tightness.  It would make sense for the Nationals to try to retain Hudson. Otherwise the Phillies, Mets, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Twins, and Astros could be suitors.

29.  Avisail Garcia – Marlins.  Two years, $12MM.  Garcia batted .330 in his excellent 2017 season, but a hamstring strain cost him two months the following year and he posted a replacement-level campaign. The White Sox chose not to tender him a contract after that, and Garcia landed with the Rays on a $3.5MM pact. His bounceback year went pretty well, with a 112 wRC+, a career-best 20 home runs, and solid defense in right field. Still, it all came out to a 1.8 WAR season.

Garcia is only 28 years old, however, and he’s faster and more athletic than you might think, ranking 72nd of 568 big leaguers in average sprint speed — tied with Cody Bellinger and ahead of players like Tim Anderson and Christian Yelich. There’s still some upside here to unlock, but the corner-outfield market also features Castellanos, Ozuna, Puig, Dickerson, Gardner, Calhoun and others. Garcia could land multiple years if a team buys into the potential for upside, but some from that group are going to be left standing with disappointing deals, and 20 homers in an all-time era for power isn’t ideal for a player who’s primarily a corner outfielder.

30.  Howie Kendrick – Twins.  Two years, $12MM.  After serving as the Angels’ starting second baseman for nine years, Kendrick was traded to the Dodgers in December 2014 for Andrew Heaney. In the last few seasons, the now-36-year-old Kendrick transitioned into more of a part-time role, logging time at first base and left field in addition to his time at second base. Kendrick’s high-contact approach has aged like a fine wine, with a 130 wRC+ over the last three years including a stout 146 mark this year. It would make sense for him to land with a contending team with an unsettled first base situation and the occasional need at second base. He makes some sense with the Twins, Rays, D-backs or Brewers, and a return to the Nationals seems quite possible after a pair of season-saving playoff dingers.

31.  Rick Porcello – Giants.  One year, $11MM.  Porcello has made 281 starts over the last nine seasons, behind only Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Jon Lester. He also started at least 28 games in each of those seasons from 2011-19, something only Lester can also boast. Porcello, 31 in December, is a paragon of durability. He’s also a paragon of mediocrity outside of his 2015 Cy Young season for the Red Sox, as he’s otherwise settled in as a two-WAR starting pitcher with an ERA in the mid- to high-4.00s.

Porcello will soak up 32 starts a year like clockwork, and his strikeout-to-walk ratios are solid. He’s also got excellent spin rate on his fastball and curve. However, Porcello’s flyball rate is eighth-highest in the game over the past three seasons and his home run rate is sixth-worst. He’d do well in a place like San Francisco, but interest could also come from the Braves, Mets, Cubs, Padres, Blue Jays, White Sox, Royals, Twins, Astros, Angels, Mariners, and Rangers. Porcello should receive two-year offers, but he may prefer to bet on himself with a one-year deal. Doing so would allow him to hit the market again prior to his age-32 season, though with a strong enough year he’d also potentially be subject to a qualifying offer.

32.  Brett Gardner – Yankees.  One year, $10MM.  Gardner has been indispensable in his 12-year career with the Yankees, as he just keeps churning out 3-4 WAR seasons.  In fact, his 21.9 WAR from 2013-19 ranks 12th among all MLB outfielders, ahead of players like Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, and A.J. Pollock. He’s a well-rounded contributor who generally rates as above average on both offense and defense.  The 36-year-old Gardner has typically served as a left fielder, but he proved more than capable of  center when he took more than half of the Yankees’ innings at that position in Aaron Hicks’ absence.  It’s hard to picture him in anything other than a Yankees uniform, but perhaps some team could lure him with a two-year deal. The Phillies, D-backs, Indians and others could weigh outfield additions, but with Hicks likely out for most of the 2020 season following Tommy John surgery, a Bronx reunion seems all the likelier.

33.  Robinson Chirinos – Astros.  Two years, $10MM.  The 35-year-old Chirinos has proven himself to be one of the better-hitting catchers in the game, as his 111 wRC+ from 2017-19 ranks eighth in baseball in a group led by Yasmani Grandal’s 117 mark.  He’s clearly a bat-first catcher, ranking poorly in pitch framing and preventing stolen bases despite the Astros’ counseling. Still, it appears he’s become good enough behind the dish, and he should draw interest from most of the team’s listed for d’Arnaud. The Astros have extra incentive to keep him around, as they have virtually nothing on the depth chart behind the dish and Chirinos became Justin Verlander’s preferred receiver in 2019.

34.  Jason Castro – Angels.  Two years, $10MM.  Castro, by contrast, is more of a glove-first type of catcher, though his bat was above average this year for the first time since 2013. He walks at a high clip, evidenced by a career 10 percent rate and a mark near 12 percent over the past four seasons, and has above-average power for a catcher. However, he also strikes out frequently (career 27.9 percent), which limits his average, OBP and overall offensive contributions.

Castro’s defensive value is primarily driven by his pitch framing, as his career caught-stealing rate is roughly in line with the league average. His blocking numbers, per Baseball Prospectus, took a nosedive this season, although perhaps that’s to be expected in his first year back from knee surgery.  The 32-year-old missed almost all of 2018 due to a torn meniscus in his right knee and ended up ceding about half the playing time in 2019 to Mitch Garver, who had a breakout year for the Twins. As noted when previously discussing d’Arnaud, the Rays, Brewers, Nationals, Pirates, Tigers, Astros, Angels, and Rangers could all be on the lookout for catching help.

35.  Craig Stammen – Mets.  Two years, $10MM.  Stammen broke in as a starter with the Nationals in 2009 but flourished as a multi-inning reliever beginning in 2012. He missed almost all of the 2015 season with a torn flexor tendon, joining the Padres on a minor league deal prior to the 2017 campaign. Since that time he’s second among MLB relievers with 241 1/3 innings, with a solid 3.06 ERA and 50.6 percent ground-ball rate. Stammen, who turns 36 in March, won’t wow anyone with velocity and saw his swinging-strike rate fell off a cliff this year. Still, he rates well on exit velocity and hard-hit percentage and has a shot at a two-year deal.

36.  Steve Cishek – Diamondbacks.  Two years, $10MM.  The sidearming Cishek has a 2.52 ERA over the past four seasons, second only to Kenley Jansen during that time. Cishek’s strikeout and walk rates have been moving in the wrong direction, but he’s a high spin rate guy whose success comes from weak contact. He ranks in the 99th percentile in terms of opponent exit velocity and hard-hit percentage, in fact; this year, Cishek’s average exit velocity of 84.5 miles per hour ranked fourth in all of MLB.

All of that may sound more enticing than two years and $10MM, but Cishek will be 34 next June and posted the second-highest walk percentage of his career in 2019 (10.9 percent). Those control issues were particularly prominent against left-handed batters, whom he walked at a near-15-percent clip. Cishek is a monster against right-handed batters (career .199/.265/.288) but has long had control issues when facing hitters who hold the platoon advantage (.229/.335/.360). There’ll be plenty of overlap with the markets for relievers like Cishek, Stammen, Hudson and Martin.

37.  Yasiel Puig – Tigers.  One year, $8MM.  After Guggenheim Baseball Management bought the Dodgers for $2.15 billion in 2012, one of GM Ned Colletti’s first moves was to sign Puig, a Cuban defector, to a $42MM deal without ever seeing him play in a game. Puig came with huge raw talent and maturity questions from the outset, and it’s arguable that those same concerns still exist. His 2013 season, in which he finished second in the NL Rookie of the Year voting, was bookended by a pair of reckless driving arrests. Puig tallied 9.4 WAR in 252 games for Don Mattingly’s 2013-14 Dodgers, heights he surprisingly would never reach again. Puig’s 2015-16 was marked by a scuffle with a Miami night club bouncer, regular hamstring injuries, and a stint in Triple-A.  The 2017 season was a bounceback of sorts, as it was the only year in the past five in which Puig reached two wins above replacement.  Last December, Puig’s up-and-down Dodgers career came to an end as he was shipped to the Reds.

His Reds career started quietly, as it took two months for his bat to get going.  No stranger to ejections, Puig famously took on the Pirates in a brawl minutes after news of his late-July trade to the Indians broke. Though Puig’s power was absent in his time with the Indians, he still managed to post a 112 wRC+. For all his notoriety, the results on the field have been uninspiring for Puig, and he might have to accept a one-year deal. The Giants could use a corner outfield bat, but I doubt the team’s fanbase would embrace Puig while potentially losing Bumgarner. The Marlins are a fun fit, but Puig wasn’t on speaking terms with manager Don Mattingly at the end of his Dodgers career. Puig did finish on good terms with the Indians, but they aren’t likely to be looking to spend much this winter. Rebuilding teams like the Tigers, Orioles, or Royals could make sense, while the Diamondbacks, Padres, Rays, and White Sox might also look to add an outfielder.

38.  Edwin Encarnacion – Rays.  One year, $8MM.  Encarnacion, 37 in January, just finished his eighth consecutive season with at least 32 home runs. From 2012 to present, no one matched EE’s 297 bombs or 850 RBIs. Though the slugger’s defensive limitations might ultimately limit him to the Hall of Very Good, Encarnacion proved he can still mash with a 129 wRC+ this year. That’s better than fellow free agents Nicholas Castellanos, Jose Abreu, Mike Moustakas, Avisail Garcia, and Marcell Ozuna. The key to fitting Encarnacion into the middle of a team’s lineup is finding a spot for him defensively, as he’s topped out at about 500 innings at first base in recent years and should mostly serve as a designated hitter. The Rays, Blue Jays, Indians, Orioles, White Sox, and Yankees could theoretically find a place for Encarnacion’s bat, though several of those teams have already done so in the past.

39.  Alex Wood – Mariners.  One year, $8MM.  Wood posted a 3.20 ERA over 304 innings from 2017-18 for the Dodgers, but they shipped him to the Reds last December as a way of clearing salary. A back injury delayed Wood’s Reds debut until July 28th — much later than expected. He made seven starts before the back issue returned, knocking him out for all of September. Wood’s injury history also includes nearly four months missed in 2016 due to elbow debridement surgery in 2016 and two separate IL stints in 2017 for inflammation of the sternoclavicular joint. He’s only once made 30 starts in a season. Still, Wood doesn’t turn 29 until January and has demonstrated fine results when he’s been able to take the mound, with a 3.40 career ERA in 839 innings.  The southpaw pitches at 89-91 when he’s right, and he was able to do that in his brief time with the Reds this year. This winter it’s mainly a matter of figuring out the severity of Wood’s back injury. He’s a perfect candidate for a one-year deal, possibly from a rebuilding team.

40.  Adam Wainwright – Cardinals.  One year, $8MM.  Speaking of the Hall of Very Good, Wainwright proved this year that he’s not done yet. The longtime Cardinals starter inked an incentive-heavy deal to stay with the team and made good on it with 171 2/3 innings of 4.19 ERA ball. Wainwright garnered four top three Cy Young finishes in his 2009-14 heyday, but now he’s a back of the rotation righty who has lost some life on his heater (89.9 mph average in ’19) but can still boast an 83rd percentile spin rate on his vaunted curveball.

41.  Brock Holt – Diamondbacks.  Two years, $8MM.  Holt, 31, has been a slightly above-average hitter over the last two seasons, but he’s best known for his defensive versatility. He’s got at least 200 career innings at all four infield positions as well as the outfield corners. Holt would like to remain in Boston, but it’s possible the team’s budget crunch will force him to sign elsewhere. Arizona GM Mike Hazen and his top lieutenants were all in the Boston front office at one point and have taken chances on former Red Sox talent in the past. If not Arizona, Holt could make sense with the Reds, Pirates, Brewers, Phillies, Nationals and Indians, among others.

42.  Josh Lindblom – Astros.  Two years, $8MM.  Lindblom might be a vaguely familiar name for avid baseball fans or a complete unknown for others. He totaled 136 2/3 innings with the Dodgers, Phillies, Rangers and A’s from 2011-14 without establishing himself in the big leagues, and he had a brief 10 1/3-inning return with the Pirates in 2017. Like many players with unremarkable careers in the U.S., Lindblom took a chance on an overseas opportunity. He’s spent most of the past three seasons in the Korea Baseball Organization, where he’s experienced a breakout of sorts.

Over the past two seasons, Lindblom has a 2.68 ERA and a 346-to-67 K/BB ratio in 363 1/3 innings. The righty was carrying a sub-2.00 ERA for much of the 2019 season in the hitter-friendly KBO, and while win-loss record doesn’t mean much in 2019, his 35-7 mark over the past two seasons speaks to the success he’s found. Were Lindblom younger, he may well be ranked higher on the list. He’ll turn 33 next June, however, and paired with the shaky MLB track record, that will give some teams pause. That said, Lindblom’s numbers are superior to those of Merrill Kelly during his own KBO breakout, and he inked a two-year, $5.5MM deal with the D-backs upon returning stateside. His fastball stands out in terms of spin rate, but its velocity isn’t particularly eye-catching (90-92 mph). A team looking for upside at a relatively low cost makes sense here — particularly if said team heavily values spin rate and exit velocity. The Astros, Brewers, Dodgers, Twins, Cubs and Angels all seem like viable fits, but there’s no reason to think that a rebuilding team wouldn’t take a flier on a low-cost pitcher with some upside.

43.  Dellin Betances – Rays.  One year, $7MM.  Betances, 32 in March, authored a dominant five-year stretch for the Yankees in which he posted a 2.22 ERA and struck out 40.3 percent of the hitters he faced in 373 1/3 innings from 2014-18. Both figures are second in MLB during that time. Betances was also near the top with a 97.4 mile per hour average fastball during that period. However, a shoulder injury appeared during Spring Training 2019 and surprisingly delayed Betances’ season debut until September 15th. He struck out the only two batters he faced that day, but suffered a partial tear of his left Achilles tendon in the appearance. Betances was around 95 miles per hour in that outing, so he’s yet to return to his typical 98-99 mph range. He’d do well to hold a showcase for teams next spring once his Achilles heals and take a one-year deal to rebuild value. He’s a high-risk, high-reward addition to a contender’s bullpen.

44.  Kole Calhoun – Pirates.  One year, $6MM.  The 32-year-old Calhoun spent parts of eight seasons with the Angels due to an extension signed in 2017. This winter, the Halos chose a $1MM buyout over a $14MM club option to finish off that deal. After a subpar 2017-18, Calhoun bounced back to a 108 wRC+ this year with a career-best 33 home runs in 632 plate appearances. Unfortunately for him, the appeal of a 33-homer season isn’t as strong when he was one of a ridiculous 58 players to top 30 big flies with 2019’s juiced ball. Calhoun is an above-average right field defender, so there’s a chance he can serve as a two-WAR stopgap for someone. Calhoun posted a career-best 11.1 percent walk rate in 2019, but he countered that with a career-worst 25.6 percent strikeout rate. Statcast bolsters his stock with a 73rd percentile hard-hit percentage this year.

45.  Shogo Akiyama – Diamondbacks.  Two years, $6MM.  In an free-agent market largely devoid of center field talent, Akiyama should hold appeal to clubs seeking help in that regard. Akiyama, 32 next April, has batted at least .300 for the Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball in four of the past five seasons, with the lone exception coming in 2016, when he hit .296. He’s walked at a 10.8 percent clip in that half-decade span while punching out only 14.3 percent of the time.

Akiyama has topped 20 homers in each of the past three seasons and swiped 15-plus bags in each of the past five years. In all, since the 2015 season, he’s a .320/.398/.497 hitter. As with any free agent from Japan, particularly one who’ll turn 32 in his first would-be MLB season, there will be questions about whether his abilities will carry over to MLB. He’s a star in NPB, so he should be able to land a multi-year deal to remain in Japan if he doesn’t find a big league offer. But Akiyama is the best free-agent bet to give a big league team a regular center fielder.

A win-now team with ample money to spend probably wouldn’t take on this level of uncertainty, but a team like the Diamondbacks, Rangers, Indians, White Sox or Mariners could view Akiyama as an upside play and take the modest risk.

46.  Rich Hill – Dodgers.  One year, $6MM.  Hill’s three-year deal with the Dodgers went about as well as could have been expected, with a 3.30 ERA in 327 innings and another 37 innings in the postseason. When he’s able to take the mound, he’s produced huge strikeout rates, with the 13th-best overall percentage among starting pitchers during that three-year period. Still, since returning to prominence in 2016, Hill has gone on the IL nine times and missed a total of 322 days due to injuries. Aside from the recurrent blisters that accompany his chart-topping spin rates, Hill missed almost three months this year due to a forearm strain. Hill, who’ll turn 40 in March, seems likeliest to return to the Dodgers or go back to his hometown Red Sox on an incentive-heavy one-year deal.

47.  Michael Wacha – Tigers.  One year, $6MM.  Drafted 19th overall by the Cardinals in 2012, Wacha was the NLCS MVP a little over a year later. He missed more than two months in 2014 with a stress reaction to the scapula in his right shoulder but bounced back with his lone All-Star campaign in 2015. A similar shoulder injury flared up in August 2016, knocking Wacha out for a month. Healthy again in ’17, Wacha produced middling results. Then in 2018, he missed more than three months with an oblique strain. Wacha was mostly healthy this year until a late September shoulder injury ended his season. He’s still only 28, and he had early career success, but Statcast doesn’t offer much hidden value and there are lingering health issues. He’ll likely prioritize a rotation job and a one-year deal to rebuild value. That seems likeliest to come from a rebuilding team, as most contenders will prefer more certainty when trying to fill out the rotation.

48.  Ivan Nova – Mets.  One year, $6MM.  Nova, 33 in January, has made 120 starts over the past four seasons, good for 13th-most in baseball. His hallmark is excellent control, as his flat five percent walk rate is the third-best in the game over that period, nestled between Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. However, Nova’s strikeout rate is third-worst among qualifiers, and he’s prone to the long ball. It’s clearly a back of the rotation package, but Nova is capable of having a decent run when the hits drop in less frequently than usual. For example, he had a 17-start stretch this summer with a 3.02 ERA, though his full-season mark was 4.72. He’s a good fit with a team that merely needs some cheap innings behind a strong top three or four in the rotation, hence the Mets pick. Beyond them, Nova could add some stability to the Angels, Rangers or Nats, and he could also hold appeal to rebuilding clubs in Baltimore, Detroit, Kansas City and Seattle as a veteran mentor and source of steady innings.

49.  Pedro Strop – Red Sox.  One year, $5MM.  Coming to Chicago with Jake Arrieta in the Cubs’ franchise-altering trade with Baltimore, Strop cemented his place in Cubs lore with a 2.82 ERA over 373 innings spanning parts of seven seasons. His stretch from 2014-18 placed him in the top 15 in MLB in ERA, strikeout rate, and ground-ball rate for relievers. Strop faltered with a 4.97 ERA and reduced velocity this year, possibly due in part to IL stints for hamstring and neck injuries. The 34-year-old righty could easily bounce back in 2020 and should garner widespread interest.

50.  Drew Smyly – Pirates.  One year, $3MM.  Drafted in the second round out of the University of Arkansas by the Tigers in 2010, Smyly became a major piece of the return when the Rays sent David Price to Detroit at the 2014 trade deadline.  The lefty was pitching well until he was diagnosed with a minor tear in his labrum in May 2015.  Smyly opted for rehab and was able to return that season.  He made a career-high 30 starts in 2016, albeit with a 4.88 ERA.  Smyly was dealt to the Mariners the following offseason and pitched in the World Baseball Classic, but he ended up needing Tommy John surgery in July that year and never pitched in an official game for Seattle.  The Mariners cut him loose that winter and the Cubs inked him to a two-year, $10MM deal with an eye on rotation depth for 2019.  Instead, the club picked up Cole Hamels’ option and shipped Smyly to the Rangers to save money, making the Cubs another team that employed Smyly but never used him on a Major League mound.

Smyly made his Rangers debut on April 1st this year, two and a half years after his previous MLB start.  His time in Texas went terribly, and they released him in late June.  After a few appearances for the Brewers’ Triple-A affiliate, Smyly hooked on with the Phillies and joined their rotation in late July.  His dozen starts with the Phillies weren’t too bad, with a 4.45 ERA.  Smyly’s 25.9% strikeout rate for the Phillies was good for 22nd among MLB starters during that period.  Smyly’s career has been marked by injuries and flashes of brilliance, and the 30-year-old will be an interesting addition somewhere on a one-year deal.

Honorable mentions:

We realize that a Top 50 Free Agents list with one set of specific team predictions will leave some fanbases dissatisfied. A few notes on certain clubs:

  • Most teams will meet some needs through trades and free agents who fell short of this list.
  • The Orioles, Royals, Indians, Athletics, and Rockies did not end up with any free agents from this list. Certainly they might be in play on some of the more affordable names.
  • With this list, we try to present one possible puzzle where everything could happen. Once we start to get picks wrong, it has a ripple effect.
  • While some teams’ key needs have gone unaddressed, we wouldn’t recommend reading into it. There are only a handful of impact starting pitchers on the free agent market this winter, and in this iteration we haven’t given one to the Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, Cubs, or Padres. Some of those teams will be involved on the big names and one could easily land one. If that doesn’t happen, the trade market presents other scenarios for improvement.
  • While we’ve made spending capacity estimates for each of the 30 teams as part of this exercise, those change quickly with trades, non-tender decisions, and unexpected payroll changes.  We’ve projected quiet offseasons for the Astros and Red Sox largely because of payroll constraints, but those aren’t set in stone.

Originally published 11-4-19.

MLBTR Poll: Free Agent Corner Outfielders

By | at

It has long been evident that this year’s free agent market would include some notably youthful corner outfielders. Our just-released top 50 list reveals MLBTR’s collective thinking on the subject, though we certainly discussed a wide range of possibilities with respect to each of these players. And there’s often good reason to prefer a lower-cost investment, even if it comes with less upside or greater risk.

As it turned out, Nicholas Castellanos took the highest spot on the board after a monster run down the stretch with the Cubs. I’m personally a bit less bullish than our prediction indicates. While Castellanos is accomplished and still youthful, I’m not sure there’s enough bat to carry his still-rough glove in a market environment that has not treated less-than-elite hitters kindly. But perhaps it’s best to put more money down if it means getting the most offensive bang available in this player group.

Of course, you might take issue with my personal preference for the market position of Marcell Ozuna. He has been outperformed at the plate by Castellanos, though Ozuna’s Statcast numbers have jumped off the page. Ozuna is a better defender but is hardly perfect in that area. He’ll also be dragging a qualifying offer onto the open market.

There’s a case to be made that there’s much more potential value to be had in Avisail Garcia, who is just as young as those players and just turned in a strong season. He still has a highly appealing toolset — including excellent speed, if you can believe it — and might yet have some ceiling. Perhaps he’s an under-the-radar target that some teams will be eyeing.

Are we missing anyone in this group? Oh, right, Yasiel Puig. He scuffled early last year but was a useful player on the field. He has at times been an excellent performer and still seems to have the ability to provide ample production. There may be some headaches, but Puig is also undeniably a charismatic presence that might just help jolt a quiet franchise. He seemed to get along well enough with the Reds and Indians; there were fireworks during 2019, but they weren’t directed at other members of his organizations.

Regardless of which player turned in the best 2019 showing or possesses the most pure talent, it’s possible to imagine any of these four pacing the group in 2020 and beyond. Who do you think offers the most intriguing opportunity on this winter’s market?

(Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)

Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

By | at

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Rockies endured one of the more disappointing seasons of their 27-year history in 2019. It may seem hard to remember now, but just a season ago, the 91-win Rockies came within one game of derailing the Dodgers’ now-seven-year run of dominance in the NL West. This season, they floated around .500 for much of the first half before face-planting hard in July and August. Despite scoring 55 more runs overall, the 2019 Rockies finished with an inverse record of the year prior at 71-91, 35 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Nolan Arenado, 3B: $234MM through 2024 (opt-out after 2021)
  • Charlie Blackmon, RF: $43MM through 2021 ($21MM player option for 2022, $10MM player option for 2023)
  • Wade Davis, RP: $17MM in 2020 ($15MM mutual option for 2021 with $1MM buyout, becomes player option with 30 games finished in 2020)
  • Ian Desmond, 1B/OF: $23MM through 2021 ($15MM club option in 2022 with $2MM buyout)
  • Daniel Murphy, 1B: $8MM in 2020 ($12MM mutual option in 2021, $6MM buyout)
  • Bryan Shaw, RP:$9MM in 2020 ($9MM club option in 2021 with $2MM buyout)
  • Jake McGee, RP: $9.5MM in 2020 ($9MM club option in 2021 with $2MM buyout)
  • German Marquez, SP:$38MM through 2023 ($16MM club option for 2024, $2.5MM buyout)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

This team is equipped with high-end, in-their-prime talent on offense, stunning regressions to reckon with in the rotation, and an overpaid bullpen still one season from financial freedom. The likeliest route to flipping the script (again) and returning to playoff form – and this won’t be fun to hear – is probably internal improvement. On that front, Bud Black and company have more questions than answers.

What’s worse, if you’ll pardon a mixed metaphor, the front office has their backs against the bottom line: per Cot’s Contracts, the Rockies ran out an Opening Day payroll of just over $145MM, a team record they’ve reset every season since 2014. Assume a $9MM jump to mirror their rise in payroll the past two offseasons, and a 2020 Opening Day payroll would land around $156MM. Unfortunately, even after the subtraction of Anderson and Bettis, Roster Resource projects their current payroll at around $159MM.

There’s just not much wiggle room in the numbers. The money owed either belongs to core members of the roster (Arenado, Story, Gray, Marquez) or unmovable veterans performing who are below or near replacement level (Davis, Shaw, McGee, Desmond). In another year, the commitment to those four drops from $50.5MM to $13MM, assuming Davis finishes fewer than 30 games (which shouldn’t be a problem after an 8.65 ERA in 50 outings this season).

Thinking creatively, maybe there’s an AL team out there in love with Charlie Blackmon. Despite manning right field for the Rockies, the numbers say Blackmon’s no longer a super-viable option for NL teams (he stepped down the defensive spectrum in 2019 but remained among the worst-rated defensive outfielders in the game with -9 Outs Above Average). Blackmon doesn’t steal bases anymore, though a 125 wRC+ pegs him as genuine asset at the dish – in good company with Bryce Harper, Gleyber Torres and Matt Chapman. Still, the total Blackmon package rounded down to just 2.0 fWAR in 2019 –  fine production for a regular position player, but shy of true All-Star status, unfortunately, given the All-Star money still coming his way ($64MM over the next three seasons, by the end of which he’ll be 36 years old). There aren’t many teams who need at designated hitter, and with cheaper, shorter-term alternatives on the market like Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Abreu, Howie Kendrick, Avisail Garcia, among others, it seems likely Blackmon remains in Colorado for 2020.

The other fatty contract they could look to move belongs to Daniel Murphy. With just $14MM guaranteed remaining, it’s possible GM Jeff Bridich could find a taker, but it’s not the best time to sell on the soon-to-be 35-year-old. Even if someone takes the contract, after a less-than-inspiring .279/.328/.452 line, a trade won’t net much talent in return or provide enough relief to afford a difference maker in free agency. However, losing Murphy’s $8MM could be enough to grab a rotation arm on a one-year deal in the mold of Wade Miley.

They could instead explore moving Ryan McMahon, who filled out their infield quartet this season by taking on full-time responsibilities at second base. On the surface his .250/.329/.450 line with 24 home runs looks okay, but 88 wRC+ puts him 12 percent below league average without enough defensive fortitude to make up the difference. A near 30 percent strikeout rate more or less tells the tale for McMahon at the plate. Still, he and Murphy provide too much the same skillset to make their pairing on the right side a benefit, and if Bridich gets creative he might use the surplus to shuffle some pieces around.

A significant shakeup doesn’t seem possible without moving one of their core assets. It would not be easy to break up Arenado and Story, who make up, essentially, a perfect left side of the infield. They’re both plus-plus defenders and power hitters in their athletic prime who are beloved by the fan base. Arenado has full no-trade protection, and the organization has shown little interest in trading Story. That said, with an estimated $11.5MM coming his way and another arbitration season to follow, it’s a logical time to move him. It won’t be fun, but a Story trade might be what’s best for the long-term health of the franchise.

Also a key part of this conversation is top prospect Brendan Rodgers, who struggled over two big league stints before a torn labrum ended his season in July. He’s not the defender at shortstop that Story is, but he can probably stick there if need be. If he becomes the full-time second baseman, that means bumping McMahon into a full-time utility role until Murphy’s contract runs out. That would make sense if the Rockies weren’t strapped for cash and in need of serious help on the pitching side. There’s definitely a trade to be made somewhere on the offensive end of the roster, but it’s doubtful any of the Rockies’ imperfect-fitting bats carry enough value to make much of a difference via trade. Story or David Dahl are excpections, though  the organization seems intent on keeping them.

Speaking of Dahl, the Rockies plan to keep him in center next year, and though he’s passable up-the-middle, he’s not exactly a profit center out there from a defensive standpoint. Offensively, he’s produced as promised, despite being continually beset by ticky-tack injuries like the high ankle sprain that cost him the second half of 2019. As a .297/.346/.521 career hitter, he is no doubt an asset on that side of the ball, but he’s also a qualified Super Two facing an arbitration raise for the first time this season despite never putting together a full season.

Outside of a successful cup of coffee from Sam Hilliard and decent play from free agent castoff Yonder Alonso, the Rockies’ offense cratered after their core four (Arenado, Story, Blackmon and Dahl). Tony Wolters and Garrett Hampson have elite skills – defense and speed, respectively – but have yet to shore up the weaker parts of their games. Ian Desmond can line up at multiple outfield positions and first base, but his bat doesn’t play at of those spots. Raimel Tapia took a full turn in left field at age 25 and came up empty, as fWAR and bWAR agree that he was worth almost a full win below replacement (-0.9). That’s not a rousing cast of characters, but the core is strong enough that the Rockies should have no trouble augmenting with cheaper veterans taking the leftover at-bats in left and behind the plate. In a perfect world, one of those veterans could also be a backup plan to Dahl in center field (Michael A. Taylor of the Nationals could be a reasonable trade pickup).

The real scapegoat of the Rockies’ disappointing 2019, and where they should devote most if not all of their offseason attention, is pitching. The bullpen was bad in 2019, producing the second-highest FIP and second-lowest fWAR while commanding a serious chunk of the payroll. The inherent volatility of bullpen arms will allow the Rockies to trot out Davis, Shaw and McGee with at least an outside shot of returning some of their value, while Jairo Diaz, Scott Oberg, James Pazos and Carlos Estevez will do their best not to relinquish their squatters’ rights on the other bullpen spots. As much as the bullpen is in a less-than-ideal situation, the rotation needs the most work after a collective 5.87 ERA/5.31 FIP that ranked dead last in the NL.

It’s certainly unfair to heap an entire season’s worth of disappointment on a single player, but if we were to saddle just one man with the blame, Kyle Freeland would win the vote in a landslide. Jon Gray was last year’s demoted ace, but a redemptive campaign saw him reclaim ace-by-default status thanks to his year-over-year ERA shriveling from 5.12 in 2018 to 3.84 in 2019. Marquez is their third rotation asset, but his ERA rose to 4.76 as he stayed around the plate so often (4.9 BB%) opponents were able to barrel him up at an above-average rate (7.9%). Marquez and Gray will be counted on for mid-rotation production, at minimum, with a ceiling of a number one. The same could be said of Freeland, though with an even lower floor. That’s way too much baked-in variance for the top three of a rotation. If they produce somewhere between the 3.91 ERA they averaged in 2018 and the 5.11 ERA average of 2019, it’ll certainly help, but that alone won’t be enough to close the gap on the Dodgers.

Of the three, Gray is the most likely to be turned into a package of prospects, but the former No. 3 overall pick’s value is tough to pinpoint.  By FIP and exit velo, Gray’s 2018 and 2019 were almost identical campaigns. This season saw a slight dip in strikeout rate, a third consecutive year of a rising walk rate (from 6.5% to 7.0% to 8.8%), and a career-high hard hit percentage of 43.6 % that ranks in the bottom four percent of starters league-wide. On the plus side, he did put the ball on the ground more often and dramatically lowered opposing launch angles. In sum: Gray kept the ball down, but gave up harder contact, which doesn’t profile as significantly predictive for future seasons, even if the results this season make the improvement appear significant.

That said, Gray’s stuff is good enough that if the Rockies were to dangle him, there are sure to be teams out there confident in maximizing his potential. If Bridich and company don’t want to move someone like Story or Dahl, Gray would probably land the biggest return. The Rockies need arms to compete in a National League with most clubs in go-for-it mode, and if the Rox don’t believe in the crew that crashed and burned this season, the trade market might be the only solution.

It’s certainly tough to trust the incumbents. On the whole, the 2019 pitching staff performed much like Gray. Their 48.8% groundball rate was second in the majors. With Story and Arenado on the left side, groundballs should turn into outs more frequently than for your average MLB infield, so that’s a sound strategy. Unfortunately, when they weren’t burning worms, the basically put together a perfect cocktail for a “crooked number.” The Rockies’ 7.85 K/9 rate as a team was 15th in the NL, while their 3.66 BB/9 ranked as the NL’s second-highest figure. Plus, over 20 percent of fly balls that Colorado allowed turned into homers, which was worst in the majors. Not missing bats, giving up plenty of free passes, and yielding fly balls that leave the yard at uncommonly high rates is the recipe for big innings.

Organizationally, the Rockies are in a tough spot, and they’re going to have to get creative if indeed they want to compete. A Story trade would bring the largest injection of talent to the system, but given the organization’s fondness for him and Rodgers looking more like a future second baseman, an extension seems more likely. Still, they’ll need to explore all their options on the trade market.

The Rockies already lost a couple of players from their 2019 collection, with Sam Howard, Pat Valaika, and Tyler Anderson claimed on waivers. Chad Bettis was also outrighted and is likely to enter free agency along with Tim Melville. But the issues facing this team in the offseason run much deeper than the fringes of the roster. The outlook isn’t great after a 91-loss season, but Bridich has indicated a rebuild is not forthcoming. On one hand, that seems shortsighted. On the other, urgency is understandable when you consider 2019 marked the 27th consecutive season since their inception that the Rockies failed to capture a division title.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

By | at

The Rays won 96 games to return to the postseason in style, defeating the A’s in the wild card game and then taking the Astros to five games in the ALDS.  Tampa Bay will now look to put the final touches on a roster that can get the franchise back into the World Series.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Blake Snell, SP: $46MM through 2023
  • Kevin Kiermaier, CF: $36MM through 2022 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)
  • Brandon Lowe, 2B: $23MM through 2024 (includes $1MM buyout of $10.5MM club option for 2025)
  • Charlie Morton, SP: $15MM through 2020 (plus vesting option for 2021)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Rays suffered one major departure before the offseason even began, as senior VP of baseball operations Chaim Bloom left the organization to become the new Red Sox chief baseball officer.  Losing a longtime member of the front office is a blow, and losing Bloom to a deep-pocketed division rival is an even tougher pill to swallow, though the Rays will look to fill the void with internal promotions.

In a way, it’s not unlike how the Rays have historically dealt with losing a big name on the field  — simply rely on the organizational depth and try to keep moving forward.  We saw that philosophy in action in 2019, as the Rays tied for the second-winningest season in franchise history even while missing key players like Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Joey Wendle, and Matt Duffy to the injured list for extended periods of time.

With so much talent already in place and (in theory) better health, it’s possible this winter might not feature quite as much roster churn as past Tampa Bay offseasons.  That said, GM Erik Neander and his staff are forever mindful of maximizing their talent core and managing the payroll at the same time.  As per Roster Resource, the Rays currently have just under $73.8MM committed for 2020 salaries, something of a high figure by Tampa’s standards — the Rays’ Opening Day payroll has exceeded the $70MM mark only five times in club history.

That projected payroll will be lowered due to at least a couple of non-tenders, with Zunino and Duffy standing out as the most obvious candidates.  The former lost his starting catching job to Travis d’Arnaud and the latter struggled through yet another injury-plagued year.

A case could also be made that Guillermo Heredia or Jesus Aguilar could be non-tendered or perhaps traded prior to the arbitration deadline.  The Rays could feel they can do better than Heredia in the backup outfield role, and Aguilar could be expendable with both Ji-Man Choi, Nate Lowe and perhaps another acquisition (more on that shortly) in the first base/DH mix.  Since the Rays are also facing a 40-man roster crunch in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, they could be aggressive in their non-tender decisions as a way of both creating roster space and saving a few dollars at the same time.  The Rays could also explore bringing back any non-tendered players on lower salaries later in the offseason.

Looking around the everyday lineup, the trio of Tommy Pham, Kevin Kiermaier, and Austin Meadows will return in the outfield.  Pham and Meadows were big pluses for the Rays last year, though Kiermaier struggled through his second consecutive subpar year at the plate.  Given that Kiermaier is Tampa’s highest-paid position player but has constantly been plagued with injuries and an inconsistent bat, it wouldn’t be outlandish to imagine that the Rays would explore trade possibilities, if any reasonable offers could be found.  However, the likelier scenario is that Kiermaier returns, as the Rays don’t have any other real center field candidates in the offing.

Around the infield, Willy Adames is locked in at shortstop, though super-prospect Wander Franco could potentially start to make his presence felt by late 2020.  Diaz and Brandon Lowe are respectively penciled in for the bulk of third base and second base duties, with Joey Wendle bouncing between the two positions and Lowe also capable of seeing some time at first base or in the corner outfield.  If Duffy returns, he’d be deployed at third base, opening Diaz up to spend some time as a right-handed counterpoint to Choi and Nate Lowe at first base and DH.  Daniel Robertson and Mike Brosseau would also be hand for bench roles.

It isn’t a bad unit, though in the wake of 2019’s injuries, the Rays might prefer the stability of adding a big bat who can play every day.  The first base/DH spot is the most logical space for such a player, particularly a right-handed bat.  A player with multi-positional versatility would fit the Rays’ model, and Florida native and World Series hero Howie Kendrick is an interesting option on the free agent market.

If the Rays were content with a strict first baseman/DH, however, and were open to spending a bit more as they chase a potential championship, a free agent like Jose Abreu or Edwin Encarnacion could potentially be in play.  It wouldn’t even be out of the question to see either Abreu or Encarnacion get only one-year offers given how the market has treated veteran first basemen in recent years, making such players more enticing to the Rays as a one-year splurge.

To address depth needs, the Rays haven’t ruled out reunions with free agents Avisail Garcia or Eric Sogard, depending on how the market shakes out for either player.  Re-signing Sogard to the infield mix could push Diaz into the role as the right-handed complement to Choi and Lowe. Instead, Garcia could see some time at DH or in right field, allowing for Meadows or other players to cycle through the DH slot on partial rest days.

Travis d’Arnaud is another player the Rays would like to have back, though he might have priced himself out of Tampa’s range after a career-reviving 92-game stint with the team.  d’Arnaud was both productive and healthy in 2019, and now looks to be the second-best option on the free agent catcher market after Yasmani Grandal.

Catcher has been enough of a problem area for the Rays over the years that they might be willing to engage in a minor bidding war if they like what they’ve seen in d’Arnaud, as otherwise, the club will again be looking for answers behind the plate.  d’Arnaud signing elsewhere would make it perhaps almost a necessity that Zunino be retained, as otherwise, Michael Perez would be Tampa’s top in-house choice as the starting catcher, leaving the Rays sifting through the second- or third-tier options on the free agent or trade markets.

Tampa Bay’s bullpen pitched very well last season, and the team will bring just about its entire crop of arms back for another year of constant restocking and reshuffling between the majors and Triple-A Durham.  Emilio Pagan had a big year and is again slated to receive the bulk of closing duties, though the Rays are flexible enough with their bullpen usage that Diego Castillo, Colin Poche, or perhaps a variety of other pitchers could receive save chances depending on the situation.  The Rays are likely to add at least one veteran arm to their mix, though perhaps even just on a minor league contract.

One area that isn’t likely to receive much attention is starting pitching, as the Rays are tentatively hoping that a healthy rotation of Charlie Morton, Snell, Glasnow, Yonny Chirinos, and Ryan Yarbrough can be one of baseball’s best.  It’s worth noting that even with all the injuries, the Rays already had one of the sport’s top rotations in 2019, as the Rays continued to achieve great results with their use of the opener for (as it turned out) multiple turns in the starting five.  Chirinos and Yarbrough were both “promoted” to regular starter roles after being primarily used as bulk pitchers behind an opener, so the Rays could continue using them as normal starters, or perhaps again turn to an opener given how successful the strategy has been.

Top prospect and two-way player Brendan McKay made his MLB debut in 2019 and is an intriguing wild card for both the rotation or even the DH mix.  Midseason pickup Trevor Richards, Austin Pruitt, or former top prospects Anthony Banda and Jose De Leon could also factor in as further depth options, or bulk pitchers.

The Rays’ playoff success isn’t likely to lead to any uncharacteristic spending, as the club’s last big splurge in the 2013-14 offseason (when Andrew Friedman still ran the baseball operations department) backfired, and indirectly contributed to four straight losing seasons from 2014-17.  That said, after signing Morton to a $30MM deal last winter, one can’t deny the possibility that Neander could have another bold move or two in store in order to put the Rays over the top in the AL East.

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

By | at

The Tigers found their low point in 2019 … or so they hope. It’s far too soon to envision this organization contending, but the Detroit front office has some payroll space to work with.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Detroit Tigers depth chart | Detroit Tigers payroll outlook]

How rough was the 2019 campaign for the Tigers? They ran away with the rights to next year’s top overall draft pick by a whopping seven games, matching the ’18 Orioles with a 47-win effort. Not so hot, particularly given that the organization still opened the campaign with $115MM of payroll. Then again, it’ll be handy to have the 1-1 selection for the second time in three campaigns; no doubt the Tigers wish they had managed to secure the intervening top choice as well.

Last year’s hot stove session was more or less a complete bust. GM Al Avila and his charges spent $15.5MM on veteran additions but got little in contributions and nothing back via trade for that spend. Some of the specific moves were defensible on their own, but it’s nevertheless a disappointing outcome. Otherwise, the club did little to take chances on potentially interesting young talent. The Tigers picked up only a few marginal players in waiver claims and minor-league signings, not one of whom appears to be part of a contending future.

That’s not to cast a pall over the entire organization. It’s in large part a reflection of a typical rebuilding effort after an extended effort at contention. And there’s some legitimately interesting talent on the rise in the Detroit farm, some of it beginning to press toward the MLB level. But that fact only increases the urgency of making strides now, to install some pieces that complement the good young talent as it reaches the majors — thus helping the Tigers open a new window for winning as soon as possible, while Casey Mize and co. are at their most cost-efficient.

So, the Tigers organization needs to make greater progress this time around. How to do it? Frankly, there really aren’t many limitations on Avila and his charges. Having already scraped along the bottom of the league for the past several seasons, the pain of poor outcomes is by now familiar and accepted. The present roster is free of impediments; Cabrera will DH and play first and the front office can pretty much otherwise use its roster spots in whatever way it wishes.

Plus, there ought to be some money to work with — even if we don’t yet know quite what payroll levels this organization will operate at now that ownership has passed from Mike to Christopher Ilitch. The Tigers have largely unwound the remnant obligations of their last contending stretch, though the misguided Miguel Cabrera extension will blot the books for a while longer. Jordan Zimmermann and Prince Fielder will be settled up fully after the coming season. The Tigers have yet to promise a dime to anyone else, so they’ll start their 2020 roster with $61MM in obligations and a modestly priced slate of remaining arbitration-eligible players (after parting with three such players after the end of the season).

Looking over the existing roster for needs feels somewhat beside the point. But there are some areas with greater opportunity available than others.

The pitching staff is relatively stable, particularly the rotation (as far as rebuilding clubs go). There were ups and downs last year for Matthew Boyd, Spencer Turnbull, and Daniel Norris, but all threw well enough to warrant jobs in 2020. (Norris was particularly effective when transitioned to a three-inning “opener” role, so perhaps he’s best deployed with a piggyback option.) Tyler Alexander could also factor, with Zimmermann of course still on board if he’s healthy. Speaking of notable injury situations, this is shaping up to be a big season for Michael Fulmer, who’ll be working back from Tommy John surgery. He’s now about seven months out from the procedure, which took place just before the start of the ’19 season. Odds are the club will target a return early next summer.

There’s room for another veteran signing in the mold of last year’s additions of Tyson Ross and Matt Moore. Those didn’t pan out, but they were a sensible tandem to try out in hopes of unearthing an eventual July trade chip. Youthful, reasonably high-upside hurlers such as Michael Wacha or Alex Wood could be targets this time around if the Tigers want to try that same approach. There are loads of possibilities for veteran depth and wisdom, which would be nice to have on hand as the top prospects arrive.

The rotation need will increase dramatically if the Tigers gain traction on talks involving Boyd, who faded down the stretch after an eye-opening early showing last year. Yeah, he ended up with a middling earned run average and allowed a stunning 39 home runs. But Boyd is a durable, youthful, high-K starter who comes with three years of cost controlled campaigns. The trade market for starters doesn’t look to have much else of interest, so it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see analytically minded contenders poking around for a bargain. The Tigers shouldn’t accept just anything, but ought to explore the possibilities. If something gets done, the open rotation spot and salary capacity can be given to a bounceback target that could be utilized as a trade chip.

It doesn’t seem as if the Tigers need to go wild in the bullpen, either. No, this was not a top-tier unit — far from it. The Tigers relief corps landed in the bottom third of baseball last year by most measures and doesn’t seem especially likely to be much better in 2020. But that’s just not a core area to focus on for a team in this situation. The Detroit organization can afford to allow in-house such as Buck Farmer, Joe Jimenez and David McKay to continue to learn on the fly, even in higher-leverage spots, with some starting pitching depth perhaps also spilling into the relief unit.

Adding at least one veteran to the pen mix might be sensible, but the Tigers shouldn’t tie up relief roles on low-upside arms. Just look at the Marlins’ Nick Anderson bonanza: added in a minor swap in the 2018-19 offseason, the righty threw well enough in his debut season to become a major mid-season trade piece. It’s tough to score that kind of a player, but it’s easier to dig for gold in the relief arena than any other. The Tigers should utilize their reliever roster spots and MLB opportunities to chase ceiling.

There’s obviously work yet to be done on the pitching staff. But with a host of highly regarded arms moving toward the Majors, there’s help on the way. And the near-term problems pale in comparison to the issues on the other half of the roster. Outside of Cabrera and the departing Mercer, only Victor Reyes, Niko Goodrum, and JaCoby Jones posted offensive numbers in spitting distance of average for the Tigers.

Goodrum is capable of playing just about anywhere, which helps with flexibility. (Somewhat curiously, he graded out much better at shortstop than in left field.) Reyes and Jones can both play center, though the latter’s defensive grades strangely plummeted in 2019. While none of these players has shown a particular likelihood of turning into anything like a core piece, it’s nice to have such a reasonably flexible trio to work with.

The other players that had 2019 trials all turned in duds. Jeimer Candelario and Dawel Lugo scuffled at third base. Brandon Dixon launched 15 homers but did little else with the bat during his time at first base. Corner outfielders Christin Stewart, Travis Demeritte didn’t hit. Neither did middle infielders Willi Castro and Ronny Rodriguez or utilityman Harold Castro. Behind the dish, Jake Rogers holds promise but he and Grayson Greiner … you guessed it, didn’t hit in 2019.

These players are all still available to draw from. Some have greater promise than they’ve shown to this early stage of their MLB careers. And the Detroit farm has a few pieces that could pop up in 2020, including infielder Isaac Paredes and outfielder Daz Cameron. But it would frankly be difficult to say that the Tigers are remotely precluded from adding at any specific position except, perhaps, center field — which is just as well given the state of the market. The positional flexibility on hand only adds to the sense that the Tigers can and should explore upside opportunities wherever they can find them.

What the Tigers should probably not do is settle for another version of the Mercer-Harrison middle-infield combo (whether  there or anywhere else on the diamond). It is valuable to have some veteran leadership, to be sure, but you’d like to see it come from somewhat more youthful players that have some hope of delivering future value (via trade, future arbitration control, or otherwise). It’s one thing to add a solid part-time catcher or fourth outfielder, but tying up significant playing time with short-term, low-ceiling pieces is of dubious merit.

If the Tigers want the veteran presence and performance, then they’d be better served making a more significant investment in a more youthful, higher-end player. Didi Gregorius, Jonathan Schoop or Yasiel Puig are the sort of players that could plausibly be attracted by multi-year offers if they can’t get them elsewhere. The Tigers can also look at the trade market, which could conceivably feature personnel on the order of Nomar Mazara, Michael Taylor, Maikel Franco, and Albert Almora. We don’t yet know for sure what opportunities might arise and whether they’ll be worth the price. But the Tigers ought to be seeking situations that come with some real upside — both in terms of performance and control rights — even if it means taking on financial obligations that extend past the 2020 season.

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

By | at

The Twins parlayed a series of short-term pickups from the 2018-19 offseason, some key prospect arrivals and a series of step-back moves from the Indians into their first American League Central title since Target Field’s inaugural season back in 2010. They also continued a mind-boggling run of postseason futility and are now faced with glaring holes in their rotation as the offseason begins.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Max Kepler, OF: $29MM through 2023 (including buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Jorge Polanco, SS: $21.8MM through 2023 (including buyout of 2024 club option; contract also contains 2025 club option)
  • Nelson Cruz, DH: $12MM through 2020
  • Marwin Gonzalez, INF/OF: $9MM through 2020

Arbitration-Eligible Players (arbitration projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Martin Perez, LHP: $7.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
  • Nelson Cruz, DH: $12MM club option with a $300K buyout (the Twins have not formally announced the move, but Cruz’s option will reportedly be exercised, as was widely expected)

Free Agents

Juiced ball or not, no one would’ve predicted the 2019 Twins to set Major League Baseball’s single-season home run record, but Minneapolis’ resident “Bomba Squad” did just that when they belted 307 long balls and won the American League Central by a a decisive eight-game margin. Five different Twins — Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler and even Mitch Garver — belted 30-plus home runs in 2019, and the Twins will return nearly that entire lineup for the 2020 season.

The only (semi-)regulars likely to depart are Jonathan Schoop — who figures to be replaced by standout rookie Luis Arraez — and perhaps C.J. Cron, who battled a thumb injury late in the season and could be a non-tender candidate. Jason Castro, who bounced back from 2018 knee surgery with a solid year at the plate (101 OPS+) and his typically strong defense, also could be in search of a new home. The Twins could explore the possibility of retaining him in a reduced role, but Garver’s out-of-nowhere breakout has vaulted him to the top of the organizational depth chart and Castro is both young enough (32) and good enough (1.6 fWAR in 79 games/275 plate appearances) to merit consideration as a starter elsewhere.

That nearly the entire lineup is not only under control but is either in arbitration or signed to affordable contracts bodes well for chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine this winter. It sounds strange to say, but the Twins may have more financial flexibility than any contender in baseball. Minnesota currently has $31MM committed to the quartet of Nelson Cruz, whose $12MM team option was a no-brainer to exercise, Marwin Gonzalez, Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco. They have another $46.2MM in projected arbitration salaries to 10 players, but that number will assuredly shrink.

Sam Dyson, acquired at the trade deadline, aggravated an existing shoulder injury following that swap and underwent surgery that’ll keep him out for up to a year. The Twins did their due diligence on the situation and found no evidence that the Giants knew of the ailment, so it seems a case of poor luck that leaves them with a thinner bullpen than they’d hoped. He’s a lock to be non-tendered, which immediately slashes $6.4MM off that arbitration tab.

As previously mentioned, Cron could also be jettisoned this winter. Eleven teams passed on the slugger via waivers last winter when he was projected to make a bit more than $5MM and was coming off a healthier, superior season at the plate. Cron hit .266/.326/.495 with 17 homers in the season’s first half but floundered to a .229/.280/.420 line following the All-Star break. He underwent surgery to repair his problematic thumb last week, which could sideline him for up to two months. While Cron is expected to be ready for Spring Training, that notable raise, poor second half and the uncertainty associated with any surgery all line up to make him a viable non-tender candidate.

If Cron and Dyson are cut loose, the Twins will have about $63.18MM committed to 12 players. That’s barely more than half the $120MM mark at which this year’s Opening Day payroll sat and nearly $66MM shy of 2018’s record $129MM payroll. The Twins won’t necessarily spend $66MM this winter, of course, but the “Falvine” front office duo has given reason to believe that they’ll at least be willing to enter record territory if the right opportunities present themselves.

“I think we feel like we’re getting to a place now where we feel a little bit more emboldened to sit down with [owner] Jim Pohlad and [President] Dave [St. Peter] and talk about being a little bit more aggressive,” Levine said in this year’s season-end postmortem (link via La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune). Falvey, in that same press conference, said the Twins will be in the market for “impact pitching” both in free agency and via trade.

In that regard, it’s a fairly good offseason to be hunting for big-name rotation help. Gerrit Cole will hit the market in search of the largest contract ever awarded to a pitcher, while Nationals co-ace Stephen Strasburg has gone from long shot to virtual lock to opt out of the remaining four years and $100MM on his contract. Also reaching free agency will be Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu and the Twins’ own Jake Odorizzi.

Minnesota isn’t going to be considered any type of favorite for Cole, who many believe will land with his hometown Angels, but it’d be a surprise if they weren’t in the mix for him to some extent. Cole seems likely to break David Price’s $217MM record for a pitcher, and even with this type of payroll space and a front-office tandem speaking of increased aggression and “impact” pitching, it’s hard to envision the Twins winning that bidding. But the remainder of the offseason’s top pitching talent will all fall into a more plausible price range for Minnesota. The Twins have never signed a pitcher for more than Ervin Santana’s four-year, $55MM contract five winters ago, but they did offer Yu Darvish a reported $100MM contract prior to the 2018 season (and they of course paid Joe Mauer a franchise-record $184MM on an eight-year contract).

From a purely financial standpoint, the Twins shouldn’t face any limitations in addressing their rotation. They should also be among the winter’s most motivated buyers, as the only starter they’re returning is right-hander Jose Berrios. Odorizzi, Michael Pineda and Kyle Gibson are all free agents, and the Twins seem likely to buy out Martin Perez’s $7.5MM club option. There are some internal candidates to fill a spot, including top prospect Brusdar Graterol and right-hander Randy Dobnak, who had a meteoric 2019 rise after going undrafted and signing with the Twins out of indie ball in 2017. The Twins’ starting pitching was a glaring weakness against the Yankees in the ALDS, however, and relying on internal arms fill that void won’t cut it. Odorizzi should get a qualifying offer and could either be back on that one-year pact or a multi-year arrangement, but it’s easy to see why the Twins are motivated to add multiple starters even if the 29-year-old returns.

Looking to the trade market, there aren’t many surefire trade targets to pursue. Matthew Boyd will again be discussed throughout the winter, and speculatively speaking, it’s not difficult to see how either Pittsburgh’s Chris Archer or Colorado’s Jon Gray could become available. Depending on the direction things go in Boston, Eduardo Rodriguez could surface in trade rumblings as well. Specific targets aside, the Twins have a deep farm system and could put together an enticing offer for the majority of the trade candidates on this year’s offseason market. Whether the additions come via trade or free agency, it’d be rather stunning if Minnesota fails to add at least two rotation arms — if not three.

The bullpen also represents a potential area for upgrade. Taylor Rogers has emerged as a strong late-inning option, and the Twins enjoyed dominant stretches from Tyler Duffey, Trevor May and rookie Zack Littell down the stretch. But Dyson’s injury and the impending free agency of Sergio Romo leave the Twins with some spots to fill. Minnesota doesn’t have a left-handed setup piece to Rogers, and even if the Twins add a closer to push him down the pecking order a bit, a second lefty would be worth pursuing.

Minnesota had interest in Will Smith at the deadline, and perhaps no free-agent reliever did more to boost his stock following the trade deadline than Drew Pomeranz, who is suddenly a potential multi-year deal candidate. If the Twins prefer more affordable stability, Tony Watson would fit the bill without breaking the bank. Righty options like Will Harris, Chris Martin and Steve Cishek are multi-year deal candidates, but even more so than with starters, there’s really no pitcher on the market that should be considered too expensive (again, from a purely financial standpoint). It should be noted, though, that Addison Reed is the lone free-agent reliever to ever receive a multi-year deal from the Twins.

Looking to the lineup, there’s no glaring need, but the Twins have some intriguing flexibility. A straightforward approach could be to pursue an upgrade over Cron at first base, though the free-agent market is hardly teeming with great options there. A trade pursuit of Baltimore’s Trey Mancini or the Mets’ Dominic Smith would be interesting for the Twins. Alternatively, though, Minnesota could slide Sano across the diamond and pursue one of the many third-base options available. Anthony Rendon isn’t likely to be a priority even if they can technically afford a competitive offer, but the Twins make some sense as a dark-horse candidate to pursue names like Josh Donaldson and Mike Moustakas. Adding a corner infielder would allow the team to continue deploying Marwin Gonzalez in the super-sub role at which he has become so proficient.

Outfield depth doesn’t seem to be an immediate need, but the Twins could at least entertain the idea of shopping Eddie Rosario around. He’s a fan favorite at Target Field, but Rosario’s defensive ratings plummeted in 2019 as his arbitration price is rising — and he’s never been an on-base threat (.309 career OBP; .300 in 2019). It’s likelier that they maintain the status quo, but the sheer bulk of corner options on the market would present opportunities to capably replace Rosario if another team holds him in high regard. Beyond that, the Twins will likely look to add a backup catcher, relegating Willians Astudillo to utility status again. The GIF-able nature of “La Tortuga” and his “zero true outcomes” approach has made him something of a social media darling, but Astudillo hit just .268/.299/.379 when all was said and done. He could be best suited to fill a part-time, 26th man role.

The Twins almost certainly won’t hit 300-plus home runs again in 2020 — the ball seems unlikely to be so hitter-friendly, and even if it were, banking a repeat isn’t realistic — but they’ve firmly announced their presence as contenders in a woefully noncompetitive division. The Tigers and Royals won’t be threats next season, and while the White Sox figure to aggressively seek upgrades this winter, they’ve got a lot of work to do to improve on this year’s 72-win season. The Indians remain in the fold, but there’s already speculation about Cleveland marketing Francisco Lindor and/or Corey Kluber this winter. Pardon the hackneyed phrasing, but the Twins’ window is wide open.

Falvey and Levine have spoken in the past of being aggressive when that metaphorical window finally does open, and as Levine joked in the aforementioned press conference, the Twins are “feeling a breeze” at the moment. With no luxury tax concerns, $66MM in payroll space separating their likely slate of commitments and their 2018 Opening Day mark, three rotation vacancies and ample flexibility in the lineup, the Twins appear poised for their most aggressive offseason ever.

Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

By | at

The Rangers didn’t need a new ballpark, but they got one. They will have to improve in several parts of the roster if they’re to win in the first season at the just-built facility.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Options

Free Agents

[Texas Rangers depth chart | Texas Rangers payroll outlook]

The Rangers have sat in an uncomfortable middle ground for the past three seasons, with a pair of 78-84 campaigns wrapped around a 67-95 dud. Payroll has moved south, but still topped $160MM by the end of the 2018 season and sat at $118MM on Opening Day in 2019.

Unsurprisingly, the roster construction efforts have mirrored the broader situation. The Rangers have spent some money and hit on a few free agents. Mike Minor and Lance Lynn succeeded beyond the wildest expectations on three-year deals while last year’s crop of low-cost talent delivered significant contributions from Hunter Pence, Danny Santana, and Logan Forsythe. But the club has also whiffed on others. Jeff Mathis, Asdrubal Cabrera, Shawn Kelley, Shelby Miller, and Zach McAllister absorbed a decent amount of payroll without delivering much in return. While Joey Gallo has emerged as a star-level performer, the results haven’t been as promising for Rougned Odor and Nomar Mazara.

It’s frankly difficult to see this club vaulting into serious contention in 2020 without some enormous strides from existing players and major additions from outside. The organization seems to have preferred a few years of fairly expensive mediocrity and foregone top draft picks as the price for avoiding a full-throated rebuild. There’s some honor in that. But it’s also time to get things moving forward.

There’s an argument to be made that president of baseball operations Jon Daniels ought to press ownership for a big payroll to launch the Rangers forward. The publicly funded stadium bonanza surely supports that concept. But it may not be wise to put the pedal all the way to the floor just yet, even accepting the premise that the organization can and should unleash the full potential of its pocketbook over the next several seasons. The Rangers have a whole host of needs and are separated by a yawning gap from the cross-state, division-rival Astros. Over-committing to too many veterans now, when the Rangers’ would-be core remains ill-defined, carries long-term roster-management risks. This winter demands careful navigation.

Gallo is a walking gap-filler on defense; he could slot in at any outfield spot or in the corner infield, though he hasn’t played third in some time and didn’t grade as well there. That flexibility will be important. The Rangers could move him around a la Cody Bellinger or let Gallo settle into whatever spot most needs it.

Otherwise, questions predominate. You could argue for a whole new outfield outside of Gallo. Shin-Soo probably should be limited all but exclusively to DH duties, where he’s a good-enough but hardly elite bat. Mazara hasn’t broken out of his league-average-ish hitting malaise; the Rangers will have to decide whether they can get him going or are better served letting another team have the shot. Delino DeShields Jr. runs like the wind but just hasn’t hit in the majors; he looks to be a reserve piece at most. And though Willie Calhoun has shown some promise with the bat, he’s anything but settled defensively.

Perhaps the Rangers would be best served shifting Calhoun in to first base rather than lining up Gallo on the dirt. The club may not be ready to give up entirely on Ronald Guzman, but it’d be awfully hard to hand over the first bagging duties to him after a .219/.308/.414 season. Across the way at the hot corner, the team still hasn’t settled on a permanent replacement for Adrian Beltre. Super-sub Danny Santana can help cover there, or just about anywhere else on the diamond, though it’s dubious whether he’ll repeat his high-BABIP, high-strikeout, power-surging 2019 success story. What of Nick Solak? The bat is intriguing, but there are questions surrounding the glove.

Let’s pause here to consider the scale of the challenge — and the volume of possible solutions. The Rangers could justifiably add something like three or four high-quality players to the corner infield/outfield mix, particularly if they find a deal they like for Mazara. Doing quite that much seems like a stretch, but the Rangers have picked up quite a few lower-cost veterans in recent years and surely will do so again. Given their positive experience with Beltre, perhaps a late-career fling with Josh Donaldson would make sense. Texas native Anthony Rendon is a bit of a dream scenario, but it’s quite possible to imagine at least some level of pursuit. There are loads of lower-cost vets that can slot in at either corner infield slot, with Mike Moustakas and Todd Frazier among the more prominent names. It isn’t hard to imagine a first bagger such as Justin Smoak, Yonder Alonso, or old friend Mitch Moreland finding his way to Texas. Likewise, the corner outfield market is full of possibilities that probably won’t break the bank. Even Marcell Ozuna may struggle to get a monster deal given the relative lack of urgent demand around the game. Nicholas Castellanos, Avisail Garcia, and Corey Dickerson are all reasonably youthful options.

That’s not all the Rangers must consider, however, even on the position-player side of the coin. We touched briefly upon the center field situation. That could be solved by planting Gallo out there every day, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Rangers prefer to ease the burden by also lining him up at first base. DeShields has historically been better against left-handed pitching, so perhaps he could handle center when southpaw starters oppose the Rangers. If Gallo is deployed elsewhere entirely, a center field platoon might include a veteran such as Jon Jay, Jarrod Dyson, or (another) old friend Leonys Martin. Should the club go looking for everyday options, it’ll need to get creative. Pirates star Starling Marte would obviously fit quite nicely, but that’ll take quite a bit of creativity for Daniels, especially with so many other teams likely to have interest in Marte given the meager open-market alternatives. More realistic, perhaps, is Japanese star Shogo Akiyama. He seems to have fixed his gaze on the majors; Daniels has always kept a close watch over the top Asian leagues. Perhaps they’ll make eye contact.

Oh, and it’s not as if the other up-the-middle spots are locked and loaded. Elvis Andrus is not going to opt out and it’d be tough to move enough of Odor’s contract to make it worth dealing him now, so the double-play combo is intact. But that underwhelming unit needs to step up big-time and the club can’t presume that’ll occur. At the same time, it’s hard to see how it can give up on the duo given their contracts. Santana and Solak factor here, though the former hasn’t been trusted much at short and the latter hasn’t played there at all. Having them to work in makes it less likely that the Rangers will spend on a sturdy veteran that can handle some time at second, though a move for a Forsythe type can’t be ruled out — particularly with a laundry list of useful names floating around free agency.

The catching situation is at least as big of an issue, albeit one that may not be susceptible of much near-term change. Mathis had an unfathomably bad season with the bat (.158/.209/.224) and understudy Jose Trevino hardly shined (.258/.272/.383 with just three walks in 126 plate appearances). It’s nice that Isiah Kiner-Falefa can play behind the dish or elsewhere on the diamond, but he also lacks promise with the bat. You can swallow some poor offensive output from defensively exceptional backstops, but it’s rough to have a black hole in the lineup.

What the Rangers can hope is that Mathis and Trevino will squeeze value out of a largely uninspiring pitching staff. Lynn and Minor were stunningly valuable in 2019 — they accounted for 11 of the club’s net 14.2 pitching fWAR — but it seems fair to presume at least a bit of regression for each. A group of youthful southpaws — Kolby Allard, Brock Burke, Joe Palumbo, and (if healthy) Taylor Hearn — will battle for opportunities despite poor results in their earliest MLB showings. There are a few other depth arms and rising prospects, but several of the team’s better-regarded farmhands are still a ways off. It’d be disappointing to see Ariel Jurado and Adrian Sampson occupy more than 120 frames apiece once again (unless the club can find a way to put one or both into another gear, at least). Pending supplementation, it’s tough to see this rotation mix as contention-worthy.

There’s some room for improvement in the bullpen. Jose Leclerc still has an electric arm. The Rangers will continue trying to help him find consistency and an appropriate role after dabbling with him as a closer and opener in 2019. It’ll be interesting to see fireballer Emmanuel Clase in his sophomore effort. Rafael Montero was a way-post-hype revelation and should occupy a prominent role. Jesse Chavez will try to bounce back and provide stability. Some of the aforementioned starter candidates could end up in the pen, while the Rangers may hope to get a worthwhile contribution from Ian Gibaut, Jeffrey Springs, or others.

So, what’s the path to improving the pitching? After hitting on two against-the-grain pitching contracts — going to the third year to land Minor and Lynn — the club could seek another opportunity of that ilk. Michael Pineda might represent an under-the-radar candidate for a relatively longer, lower-AAV outlay. The Rangers could also look at the highest reaches of the market. Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg may or may not be legitimate targets, but the Texas org could certainly afford to spend in the next tiers (Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Jake Odorizzi, Dallas Keuchel). And this year’s market has quite a few steady veteran types that ought to be available on cheaper, one-year deals. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Rangers end up with Ivan Nova or Brett Anderson. The team could also roll the dice on Michael Wacha or Alex Wood.

Free agency also obviously offers some relief solutions. A big move for a closer feels unlikely, but there’s a typical smattering of useful veterans kicking around. If the Rangers prefer a hurler with some closing experience, they could look to someone on the order of Steve Cishek. Perhaps a reunion with the under-the-radar excellent Chris Martin — an Arlington native who the Rangers brought back from Japan — would make sense for all sides.

Needless to say, options abound. It’ll also be interesting to see whether the Rangers can gain any traction in trade talks involving pitching. This club isn’t exactly overburdened with top prospects knocking down the door to the majors and won’t be anxious to move its best farm pieces. But the Rangers do have an interesting asset to market in the form of Mazara’s contract rights. He could be of interest to a variety of teams that would like a crack at his upside; packaged with other young talent, Mazara might help deliver a useful arm back to Texas. It’s even possible that Minor or Lynn could still pop up in trade talks if there’s an avenue for the Rangers to improve their mid-term outlook by kicking the contention can down the road a bit further, though the fact that a deal hasn’t yet occurred is a good indication that the Texas org values those contracts quite a bit.

One way or another, we’re likely to see quite a few fresh names on the backs of Rangers jerseys in 2020. Daniels and co. will need to be clever to make strides in the standings while also setting the team up for a much-anticipated return to glory.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

By | at

The Reds recently wrapped up a 75-win season, their sixth consecutive sub-.500 campaign. President of baseball operations Dick Williams and general manager Nick Krall have seen enough. They have every intention of assembling a playoff-caliber roster for 2020.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Most of the Reds’ focus last offseason went to their starting staff, and two of the three key acquisitions they made in that regard couldn’t have worked out much better. Picking up Sonny Gray from the Yankees has been a brilliant move thus far. Tanner Roark, whom the Reds landed in a trade with the Nationals, was effective for Cincinnati for a few months before the out-of-contention club flipped him to Oakland in July. Alex Wood wasn’t healthy enough to pitch for most of the season, so acquiring him from the Dodgers was the one starting addition that didn’t work out for Williams and Krall. But the two front office bigwigs swung a massive trade for then-Indian Trevor Bauer prior to the July 31 deadline, meaning the Reds are now slated to get a full year from him alongside Gray, Luis Castillo and Anthony DeSclafani. It’s unclear who will primarily occupy the last spot on Cincy’s staff (perhaps Wood or another free agent on a one-year deal), but it’s obvious the rotation is no longer a major concern for the club.

The Reds’ main problem at the moment seems to be their offense, which finished 25th in the majors in both runs and wRC+ this year. Although he surprisingly struggled this season, first baseman Joey Votto isn’t going anywhere. Neither is third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who fell one home run shy of the 50 mark.

Aside from Votto and Suarez, the Reds’ position player cast certainly isn’t etched in stone. Nick Senzel will also start somewhere, whether it’s second or center field (where he played in 2019), and his flexibility will afford the Reds the opportunity to shop for help at either of those spots. The upcoming class of free-agent center fielders looks quite weak, however, so unless the Reds swing a trade for someone like Starling Marte of the Pirates or Jackie Bradley Jr. of the Red Sox, odds are they’ll be adding second base help over center field aid. Fortunately for Cincy, free agency will be teeming with passable second basemen once the offseason rolls around. Of course, we’d be remiss to ignore that the Reds have a few in-house second base possibilities besides Senzel. Jose Peraza, Derek Dietrich and Freddy Galvis led the club’s second basemen in starts this year, and all are controllable through next season. However, Peraza and Dietrich look like possible non-tender candidates, while Galvis has a $5.5MM option or a $1MM buyout for 2020. Even if the Reds keep Galvis, his track record indicates he wouldn’t make for more than a mediocre-at-best starter at either second or shortstop.

Short, like second, appears to be a position the Reds could give some attention in the coming months. The trouble is that free agency won’t be loaded with obvious solutions there. Jose Iglesias, who started the vast majority of the Reds’ season at the position, is due to hit free agency. The Reds could easily re-sign the defensively adept, light-hitting Iglesias for what surely wouldn’t be a sizable sum, but they’d be wise to hunt for a better alternative first. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Reds seek a reunion with Yankees free agent-to-be Didi Gregorius, whom Cincy signed as an international free agent back in 2007. Otherwise, would the Reds pursue a trade for the Indians’ Francisco Lindor or the Rockies’ Trevor Story? They’re a pair of star shortstops who are likely to come up in trade rumors during the next few months (the speculation has already started in regards to Lindor).

While the Reds could rekindle their relationship with Gregorius, the same holds true for pending free-agent catcher Yasmani Grandal. Clearly the premier catcher set to hit the market in the next couple weeks, the Brewers’ Grandal was the 12th overall pick of the Reds back in 2010. Grandal never wound up playing a game for the Reds, but he’d be a massive upgrade now over the combination of Tucker Barnhart and Curt Casali. That said, signing the soon-to-be 31-year-old Grandal at this point would likely mean forking over $60MM or more in guarantees. If the Reds aren’t willing to go that far, and if they do try to add a somewhat high-profile backstop to upgrade over Barnhart, they could wind up with anyone from the affordable trio of Jason Castro, Travis d’Arnaud or Robinson Chirinos in free agency.

The way the Reds map out their 2020 outfield will depend in part on their plans for Senzel. As mentioned earlier, though, finding an obvious center field upgrade in free agency will be difficult. It’ll be less of an arduous task in the corner outfield, where ex-Red Yasiel Puig, Marcell Ozuna, Nicholas Castellanos, Avisail Garcia and Corey Dickerson are all on the cusp of becoming free agents. The Reds traded Puig in July as part of the Bauer deal, though Krall expressed interest in a Puig extension shortly before that.

Whether the Reds bring back Puig or find one or two players from the outside, their corner outfield does look as if it should be a priority. Cincinnati has in-house possibilities in Jesse Winker, Aristides Aquino, Phillip Ervin and Josh VanMeter, granted. However, they all come with warts. The left-handed Winker was just about unplayable this year versus same-handed pitchers; Aquino came back to reality after a historically remarkable start; Ervin’s decent overall numbers were buoyed by an unsustainable first few months; and VanMeter didn’t produce much outside of a red-hot July.

Meanwhile, the Reds’ bullpen seems to be much less of an issue than their outfield, though it’s still an area they (like just about every other team) could attempt to improve.. Raisel Iglesias has been a prime trade candidate in the past, but if Cincy’s as bent on pushing for a playoff spot next year as it has indicated, he seems unlikely to go anywhere this winter. So, he’ll stay a key member of a unit that will also welcome back Amir Garrett, Michael Lorenzen, Robert Stephenson and Matt Bowman, while Cody Reed, Lucas Sims and Joel Kuhnel could also be among in-house arms pushing for innings. Kevin Gausman, whom the Reds claimed from the Braves in August, may be a part of the unit again, too (or even vie for the Reds’ fifth starter job); however, considering his lofty arbitration projection for 2020, it seems more likely the Reds will non-tender Gausman.

Deciding Gausman’s future is one of the more immediate tasks on the Reds’ plate as the offseason nears its official start. If the Reds do let Gausman go, it’ll further increase spending space for a team that’s all but guaranteed to boast a franchise-record payroll in 2020. The Reds opened this season with an outlay just over $126.6MM, and Williams has said that number will go up next year as the club tries to bring an end to its long-running playoff drought.

“The goal for us now, all we’re talking about is the postseason. That’s what matters,” Williams declared a few weeks ago. “That’s the goal next year. It’s not taking incremental steps in a rebuild. It’s about the postseason.”

Judging by the Reds’ win-now attitude, they could be among the majors’ busiest teams during the upcoming offseason.

Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

By | at

The rebuilding Marlins will continue to add low-cost veterans and potential hidden-gem younger players as they continue to assemble what they hope will eventually be a winning core.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Wei-Yin Chen, SP: $22MM through 2020 ($16MM player option can vest for 2021)
  • Miguel Rojas, SS: $10.25MM through 2021 (includes $500K buyout of $5.5MM club/vesting option for 2022)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

The Marlins achieved one major bit of winter business before the regular season even ended, inking manager Don Mattingly to a two-year extension with a mutual option for the 2022 season.  The longest-tenured skipper in Marlins history will continue his work mentoring the young faces in Miami’s dugout, though given the contract’s length, it’s an open question as to whether Mattingly will get a chance to manage a Marlins team that is actually trying to win.

As the Marlins come off a 105-loss season, some pieces have started to come into place in South Beach.  Brian Anderson has two seasons of quality results under his belt, and he’ll line up as the everyday option at either third base or (less likely) in right field, allowing the Fish a bit of flexibility in their offseason shopping.  The newly-extended Miguel Rojas and top prospect Isan Diaz can handle middle infield duties, though Diaz is still getting his feet wet and could stand to be supplemented. Jorge Alfaro is still something of a work in progress, but he’ll continue to function as Miami’s everyday catcher. The Marlins also netted some good results from such unheralded pickups as Garrett Cooper, Harold Ramirez, and Jon Berti.  In the rotation, Sandy Alcantara and Caleb Smith showed some potential, though Smith’s production tailed off in the second half.

The larger question is, as with Mattingly, whether any of these players could conceivably be part of the next winning Marlins team, given that the Fish still look to have at least two more rebuilding years ahead of them.  This wouldn’t be a case of cutting payroll since almost every member of Miami’s roster is a pre-arbitration player, though CEO Derek Jeter and president of baseball operations Michael Hill could look to turn any single one of the club’s notable performers into a younger/higher-upside player (or players) who could help the team down the road.

To that end, it wouldn’t be a total shock to see Anderson, Alcantara, Alfaro, or Smith (who already drew some attention at the trade deadline) dealt if the right offer came along.  On the other hand, after so much roster churn in recent years, the Marlins’ front office could also see value in some simple continuity as part of the building process, plus 2020 is another year for the team to see what they really have in several of these still-developing players.

That question also extends to some Marlins who have yet to make the leap.  Diaz struggled over his first 201 Major League plate appearances, though Miami will give its hopeful second baseman-of-the-future plenty of time to develop.  The same might not be true of Lewis Brinson, who is entering his final option year and (through 709 PA) has shown no sign of being able to hit MLB pitching.  Brinson’s struggles have only been magnified by the fact that he was the headliner of the prospect package the Marlins received from the Brewers in the Christian Yelich trade — in fact, it could be argued that each of the three other players (Diaz, Jordan Yamamoto, Monte Harrison) in the deal have now surpassed Brinson in importance to the Marlins’ future plans.

While the Marlins would obviously love to see Brinson finally break out in 2020, the club will look to add at least one veteran outfielder to help carry the load.  Cooper, Ramirez, Austin Dean, and utilityman Berti will also be in the outfield mix, and reinforcements could be on the way relatively early in the season if minor leaguers Harrison and Jesus Sanchez play well at Triple-A.  Sanchez, acquired from the Rays in the Nick Anderson/Trevor Richards trade last July, will be looking to regain some of his prospect stock after a disappointing 2019 season.

Cooper could be deployed at first base, or the Marlins could opt to add a more proven bat at the position to upgrade one of the league’s worst offenses.  Free agents like Justin Smoak or Mitch Moreland wouldn’t break the bank, or a multi-positional player (e.g. Howie Kendrick, Brock Holt) could be penciled in at first base but really move around the diamond to help at various spots.  If Diaz were to struggle again, for instance, a Kendrick or a Holt could end up seeing more time at second base.

In terms of adding a veteran presence, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Fish re-sign some of their veteran additions from last season.  Neil Walker and Curtis Granderson have both expressed an interest in returning to the Marlins, while Martin Prado is a beloved figure in Miami who would also seemingly have a place as a bench piece, if he decides to continue playing.

Even though Miami will buy out Starlin Castro’s option, a case could be made that he could also be re-signed to an inexpensive one-year deal to play third base (and provide second base cover for Diaz), with Anderson moving into right field until the younger outfielders were ready.  Castro is coming off an unusual season that saw him post a dreadful .571 OPS over the first three months (345 PA), only to then deliver a .909 OPS over his final 331 plate appearances. The veteran clearly has something left in the tank and will be only 30 years old on Opening Day.  The more likely scenario, however, is that the Marlins will let Castro leave after two seasons.

With Prado and Castro both off the books, the Marlins have only $33.625MM in payroll committed to guaranteed salaries and projected arbitration salaries, and that number could drop even moreso if the Fish choose to non-tender Adam Conley or JT Riddle.  Given the organization’s usual M.O., it’s hard to project that the Marlins could spend the extra money on a higher tier of free agent, but the financial flexibility is there if Jeter and Hill see an intriguing opportunity. Notably, there are a few relatively youthful corner outfielders kicking around that may not all find the kinds of opportunities they are hoping for with other organizations.

One tactic the Marlins could explore is taking on an undesirable contract from another team, with the other club throwing in a couple of interesting prospects to sweeten the pot.  Such a bad-contract swap is also the only way the Marlins could possibly unload Wei-Yin Chen, who is single-handedly responsible for almost two-thirds of Miami’s current payroll, though parting with their own young talent to further pare an already barebones payroll probably won’t make sense for the Fish.  If Chen can’t be dealt, the team might simply release him to make extra roster space.

Alcantara and Smith headline the rotation, with Yamamoto, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez, Robert Dugger, and potentially Jose Urena in the mix for the other starting jobs.  Urena finished an injury-shortened 2019 season pitching out of the bullpen in September once he returned from the injured list.  Given that he was a solid workhorse in both 2017 and 2018, the Marlins will likely stretch him out as a starter again in Spring Training before considering more relief work.  Alternatively, due to the fact that he’s only controlled through the 2021 season, Urena could also be a candidate to be moved this winter, although Miami would hardly be selling at a high point.

There’s plenty of room in this young rotation for a veteran innings eater or bounce-back candidate, and if the Marlins were to spend some money, this might be the most logical spot.  Free agents like Alex Wood, Tanner Roark or Matt Harvey could all fit, or the club could look into signing Miami native Gio Gonzalez.

Any veteran arm signed for either the rotation or bullpen could also double as a possible trade chip come the deadline, as was the case in 2019 with Sergio Romo, who was flipped to the Twins last July.  Since Romo is a free agent again, the Marlins could look into a reunion, if they want an experienced closer to handle the ninth inning rather than Ryne Stanek.  Also picked up in that Rays trade last July, Stanek didn’t pitch well as a Marlin and has continued to struggle when used as anything other than an opener; Stanek has a 2.71 ERA over 83 career innings as an opener and a 4.93 ERA in a more conventional relief capacity.  Given these unusual numbers, one wonders if the Marlins would consider deploying an opener/bulk pitcher strategy for one of their rotation spots, with Stanek kicking off the game before another pitcher handles the majority of the early work.

Another last-place finish is likely awaiting the Marlins in a tough National League East next season, but there is opportunity this winter for the team to get creative in figuring out ways to continue planting the seeds for its next winning team.

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

hide arrowsFOX Sports Engage Network scroll to top