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Poll: Can The Guardians Push Their Way Into The Postseason?

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A lot has changed in the AL Wild Card scene in the two weeks since MLBTR’s last poll about the race. At the time, there were three clubs within two games of catching the Mariners for the final Wild Card spot, and aside from an outside chance of Houston losing the AL West the rest of the playoff field looked more or less set.

Now, the Mariners have surged ahead of the pack to run down the Astros in the West, while the Red Sox have slumped badly to the point where their ticket getting punched is no longer a foregone conclusion. The Rays (nine games back of a Wild Card spot), Royals (seven games back) and even the Rangers (4.5 games back) are all extreme long shots, meaning that if anyone is going to shake up the AL playoff field, it will be a team that wasn’t even included in our poll from two weeks ago: the Cleveland Guardians.

Cleveland has won 11 of its last 12 games, and the 80-71 Guards now sit 2.5 games back of Boston for the final Wild Card spot. Starters Gavin Williams, Parker Messick, and Joey Cantillo have all been excellent since the All-Star break, while Kyle Manzardo and Jose Ramirez have carried the offense. The fabled bullpen that pushed Cleveland into the postseason last year has shown up again this season (even without Emmanuel Clase), and that unit has done a lot of the heavy lifting for the Guardians with the lowest FIP and second-lowest ERA in baseball since the start of August.

What makes the Guardians most interesting as a possible late entrant into the postseason picture, however, is that they actually control their own destiny in the AL Central as well. The division has looked more or less locked up for the Tigers all year long, but a 5-9 record so far in September alongside Cleveland’s surge has left them vulnerable with four games (including one today) left on the schedule between the two clubs.

With two avenues to a playoff spot on the table, the Guardians are arguably the most interesting team to watch over the final few days of the regular season. The playoff odds at FanGraphs are skeptical, giving Cleveland a 16.4% chance to make the postseason this year entering play today. That’s actually the best odds of any team not currently in playoff position, but it still highlights the tough road the Guardians will have to hoe if they’re going to play in October.

That said, Cleveland does have one thing in its favor: the schedule. The Guardians benefit from four games against the lowly Twins, who have been one of the worst teams in baseball since their massive sell-off at the trade deadline. Cleveland also has a remaining series against an injury-ravaged Rangers team to wrap up the 2025 campaign. Meanwhile, the Tigers and Red Sox actually face each other in the final series of the regular season. If the Guardians can just remain in spitting distance of both teams until then, they’ll have an opportunity to make up a game or two in the standings over that final weekend.

What do MLBTR readers think? Will the Guardians be able to pull it off and shake up the playoff field? Or will they be left on the outside looking in this October? Have your say in the poll below:

Sandy Alcantara Is Finding His Old Form

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The Marlins were expected to trade Sandy Alcantara at the deadline. The former Cy Young winner had returned from the Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2024 season. The hope was that he'd immediately recapture his ace form, demonstrate that over his first 18-20 starts, and be the prize of the summer rotation market.

Alcantara's return didn't go anywhere near that smoothly. His velocity was back, but he struggled to throw strikes or miss bats. He allowed over eight earned runs per nine innings in April and May. He showed flashes in June and July but remained up-and-down. Miami's deadline calculus became whether to sell low on their longtime ace -- a move that would've been more about cutting his $17MM salaries through 2026 than netting a huge prospect return. Given the organizational history, no one would've been surprised if they'd gone that route.

They instead decided to hold Alcantara and were only modest sellers overall. Miami dealt third catcher Nick Fortes to Tampa Bay and flipped platoon outfielder Jesús Sánchez to Houston for a three-player package. In addition to Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, Kyle Stowers, Anthony Bender and Calvin Faucher all stayed.

Miami was willing to cover what remained of Alcantara's 2025 salary to take a couple more months to get him on track. That has paid off. The 30-year-old righty has looked more like his old self. He's showing better control than he did in April and May. The improved efficiency has allowed him to work deeper into games. His stuff has gotten sharper as the season has progressed. That'll all be very encouraging as the Marlins field new trade offers in the offseason.

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Poll: Luis Robert Jr.’s Option

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While they won’t be breaking the major league record for losses this year like they did in 2024, it’s been another tough year for the White Sox. They’ve lost 95 games and could lose 100 games for the third year in a row. Emerging young players like Kyle Teel and Colson Montgomery have made this season a little easier for fans on the south side of Chicago to stomach, but there’s still little reason to expect the team to contend in 2026.

One of the most important offseason decisions for the White Sox has been whether to exercise a $20MM option on center fielder Luis Robert Jr. or pay him a $2MM buyout, though it seems they’ve generally already made up their mind. As soon as the Sox opted not to trade him at the deadline, it seemed likely Robert would be back in 2026 as opposed to bought out for no return. General manager Chris Getz has suggested as much on multiple occasions, and just this morning he told reporters that he expects Robert to be a part of the club next season (link via Vinnie Duber of the Chicago Sun-Times). The question, then, is less about what they will do and whether or not they’re right to do it.

With Robert all but confirmed to be done for the 2025 campaign due to a hamstring strain, his numbers appear locked in. After slashing .224/.278/.379 (84 wRC+) with 14 homers in 100 games last year, Robert produced a nearly identical .223/.297/.364 line (82 wRC+) and slugged 14 homers in 110 games in 2025. Between that apparent lack of progress and Robert’s continued injury woes, it might seem difficult to understand why the White Sox would stick with him rather than simply viewing him as a sunk cost.

Despite his eerily similar (and disappointing) numbers, however, digging a little deeper into Robert’s 2025 numbers actually reveals reason for optimism. He stole ten more bases this year than last, going 33-for-41 as opposed to 2024’s 23-for-29. Robert’s defense is also showing signs of a rebound, as he jumped from a Fielding Run Value of 0 in 2024 to a +7 figure this year, good for top 10 among center fielders in baseball this year.

More encouraging than either of those changes are the differences in his approach at the plate. While Robert’s overall slash line doesn’t look terribly different, he cut his strikeout rate from 33.2% in ’24 to a more manageable 26% in ’25. His 9.8% walk rate isn’t just an improvement over last year’s 6.6% mark — it’s a new career-high. Robert also did his best work this summer, rebounding from a slow start to hit .274/.335/.458 with nine homers, a 19.7% strikeout rate and a 7.6% walk rate over his final 198 plate appearances. That was 17% better than average, per wRC+.

As shown by Statcast, Robert’s bat speed dropped in 2024, but he’s rebounded to elite levels in 2025, ranking in the 92nd percentile of big leaguers. That could suggest there’s still some untapped power upside, but even if his days of crushing baseballs on a 30 to 40 homer pace are behind him, the combination of improved discipline, baserunning, and defense leave him in a solid position to be a three-to-four win player in the future if he can just stay healthy — though that is a colossal “if.”

It’s arguable that it’s worth an $18MM roll of the dice, particularly considering the fact that Cody Bellinger signed with the Cubs on a one-year, $17.5MM contract during the 2022-23 offseason after back-to-back down seasons with the Dodgers. Like Robert, Bellinger was coming off injury-marred seasons where he didn’t look like himself at the plate but had shown some signs of improvement in his final year in Los Angeles. Bellinger, of course, rewarded the north siders for their gamble with an All-Star campaign in 2023 and has posted a 123 wRC+ with 10.9 fWAR over the past three seasons.

On the other hand, locking Robert in for another year comes with glaringly obvious risk. With the White Sox unlikely to contend in 2026, on-field production will only benefit the team if it can then be converted into trade capital. The White Sox have had a lot of difficulty getting what they perceive to be fair value for Robert over the years, and even if he has a big first half in 2026, teams might be scared away by his uncertain history.

Furthermore, Robert’s 110 games played in 2025 are actually the second-most of his entire career. He’s never played even 150 games in a season. One first-half injury could leave Robert with little trade value next year, and force the White Sox into another situation a lot like the one they find themselves in this year as they stare down another $20MM option for the 2027 campaign.

What do MLBTR readers think the White Sox should be doing about Robert? Should they pick up his option and bet on better days in the future, or would they be better off sending him on his way and using that $18MM in savings elsewhere? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Can The Diamondbacks Push Their Way Into The Playoffs?

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It wasn’t even two weeks ago when MLBTR did a poll regarding whether or not anything could shake up the seemingly-stagnant NL playoff picture. At the time, more than 64% of respondents believed that the sextet of clubs in postseason position (Brewers, Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs, Padres, and Mets) would be the ones to ultimately represent the senior circuit in October. The playoff odds over at FanGraphs were even more bullish on that group, as New York’s 95.2% chance to make the postseason was the lowest out of those six clubs.

A lot has changed since then regarding the perception of the NL’s playoff field. While five of the aforementioned six teams are still all but guaranteed to play in October, the Mets have entered a freefall. While a win on Sunday snapped their losing streak at eight games, they’re still 4-9 in September and 15-26 since the start of August (though they’re beating up on the Padres tonight). That extended slump has opened the door for the hangers-on in the NL playoff field to take advantage and, while the Reds and Giants have mostly spun their wheels with 75-75 records headed into the final two weeks of the season, one team has taken full advantage to force themselves back into the conversation: the Arizona Diamondbacks, who weren’t even a listed option for the postseason in that aforementioned early September poll.

With an 8-5 record in September and 25-17 since the start of August, Arizona’s been almost the inverse of the Mets over the past six weeks. Despite selling off everyone from Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor to Merrill Kelly and Shelby Miller at the deadline, they’ve fought their way back over .500 and now sit just 1.5 games back of a Wild Card spot with 11 games to go after last night’s win over the Giants. It’s very impressive for the team to have rebounded this well over the past few weeks, and a lot of things needed to go the right way for that to happen.

Since the start of August, Zac Gallen (2.68 ERA), Ryne Nelson (3.61 ERA), and Eduardo Rodriguez (3.63 ERA) have all looked like quality starters, while Nabil Crismatt has broken out to deliver 30 innings of 2.70 ERA ball in the rotation since making his season debut on August 17. The offense, meanwhile, has gotten sensational performances out of not just superstars like Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte, but also lower profile talents like Geraldo Perdomo (174 wRC+ in 192 plate appearances) and Gabriel Moreno (166 wRC+ in 74 plate appearances). Even rookie Blaze Alexander (124 wRC+ in 170 plate appearances) has done a great job letting fans in Arizona forget about the loss of Suarez.

As monumental as the team’s efforts to force their way into the postseason have been, they still face a very uphill climb even as they sit just a game and a half back. The schedule has done them absolutely no favors. After this series against the Giants, they’ll run a gauntlet of Phillies, Dodgers, and Padres to close out the season. Perhaps the series in Philadelphia won’t be as difficult as it might look on paper if the Phils ease off the gas after clinching the NL East last night, but L.A. and San Diego remain locked in a close battle for the NL West and surely won’t make it easy for their division rivals in the desert to finish this attempt at a comeback.

All of that leaves Arizona with just a 7.7% chance to make the postseason entering play today, according to FanGraphs. Those are long odds, and while they’ll surely improve at least somewhat if the Diamondbacks can put the Giants to bed in this ongoing series, even a sweep isn’t especially likely to move the needle unless the Mets help them out by doing a lot of losing in the coming days. Even then, the Giants and Reds both lurk just half a game behind the Snakes. A series loss to the Giants would likely spell the end of Arizona’s hopes then and there, and a schedule that affords Cincinnati five more games against the struggling Cardinals and Pirates should keep them competitive even if Arizona can dispatch San Francisco.

Unlikely as it may seem on paper, however, an eight-game September losing streak in Queens and the Diamondbacks winning at a .595 clip after trading off their best players didn’t seem terribly likely either. Could Arizona really finish the job and return to the postseason this year? Have your say in the poll below:

Here’s a backup link for poll in case the first one isn’t showing up

Dipoto: Mariners Interested In Re-Signing Josh Naylor

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The Mariners are riding a six-game win streak that has pulled them into a tie with Houston for the top spot in the AL West. Josh Naylor has eight hits, including a trio of home runs, over that stretch. He’s batting .260/.306/.460 with eight home runs in 41 games since being acquired from Arizona at the deadline. He’s also incredibly 16-16 in stolen base attempts, ranking third in MLB behind Juan Soto and Jazz Chisholm Jr. in steals since he was traded. Unsurprisingly, the Mariners would like to keep the impending free agent in the Pacific Northwest.

“Yeah I think we would (like to retain him),” M’s president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald on this week’s edition of the podcast. “That remains to be seen how Josh feels about the matter. It’s never easy when you’re in a playoff race to open discussions like that. I know that there is interest on our end, and I believe that there is interest on Josh’s end.”

Naylor hasn’t suffered from Seattle’s home park, which grades as MLB’s most difficult for hitters. He’s batting .338 with five home runs in 19 games at T-Mobile Park since the trade. That’s an extremely small sample, but Naylor also had success against Seattle pitching as a visiting player. He’s a career .283/.319/.535 hitter over 140 plate appearances at T-Mobile Park.

“He’s actually as good as anybody that’s played in the last handful of years at hitting in this ballpark. It doesn’t seem to bother him much. We’ll see if there’s an interest in sticking around as a Mariner,” Dipoto noted. Naylor echoed those sentiments when speaking with the M’s beat earlier this week (link via Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times).

“Every time I was an opponent, this is like the first place I couldn’t wait to come to,” the lefty hitter said. “I feel comfortable everywhere, to be honest, but I just really enjoyed playing here coming here as an opponent. I thought it was a super cool stadium. The fans were always electric. I think you see the ball well here, personally. I like the open roof. When the roof is closed, it’s cool. But I love the feeling of the roof open.”

The Mariners are going to look beyond 36 games of park-specific data when deciding how seriously to pursue a long-term deal with Naylor. His success there provides some comfort on both sides, though. The Mariners haven’t been big spenders on free agent hitters throughout Dipoto’s decade-long tenure atop baseball operations. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Mitch Garver is the only free agent position player to sign for multiple guaranteed seasons in that time. Beyond Garver’s $24MM guarantee, last offseason’s one-year, $7.75MM agreement to bring back Jorge Polanco is their second largest deal for a free agent hitter.

Naylor is headed into his age-29 season. He won’t be attached to draft pick compensation because the midseason trade rendered him ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. He should easily surpass the Garver contract and has a chance to secure a four-year deal despite teams’ general reluctance to sign first basemen to long-term contracts. Naylor carries a .271/.333/.462 slash in more than 2000 plate appearances over the past four seasons. His plus contact skills give him a solid offensive floor and he’s a reasonable bet for 20+ home runs annually. His glove rates around league average, and while he’s one of the sport’s slowest players, this year’s stolen base proficiency demonstrates better baserunning instincts than one would expect based on his physique.

Dipoto spoke generally (not regarding Naylor individually) about the organization’s lack of free agent activity on the offensive side. “I don’t necessarily think it’s a personal plan and certainly not something we discuss here internally. … We just haven’t been able to attract the right player that we feel great about investing more than 2/24 in. We’ve tried and we’ve come up short on a number of occasions in trying to recruit those free agents,” he told MLBTR. “We’re also entering a stage in our development where we’re pretty confident in our system and the ability to start churning position players in a way that we were churning out starting pitchers a handful of years ago.”

Seattle’s farm system indeed has a forthcoming influx of young talent. The M’s already graduated rookie second baseman Cole Young, who showed flashes early before hitting a second half slump. They have five additional position players on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 prospects. None of those players are first basemen, though, and the M’s dealt Tyler Locklear to the Diamondbacks in the separate deadline trade for Eugenio Suárez. Turning the position back over to Luke Raley, who has battled injuries amid a down year, isn’t ideal.

The M’s pushed their payroll to roughly $166MM with this summer’s additions, as calculated by RosterResource. They have around $77MM committed to next season. An arbitration class featuring Randy Arozarena, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Bryce Miller will cost roughly $35-40MM. Seattle also has a $6MM option on Andrés Muñoz which they’ll certainly exercise. Polanco will be able to return on a contract option that could reach $8MM, though he’s likely to decline that after one of the best offensive showings of his career.

Seattle isn’t likely to be huge players in free agency, but there appears to be room for an offseason built around re-signing Naylor and making a few supplementary additions. It’s also possible they shop Luis Castillo, who’ll make $22.75MM annually for two more seasons. Castillo, who was the subject of some trade chatter last winter, has generally been a reliable mid-rotation presence but has struggled in the second half.

Naylor’s impending free agency was one of myriad topics that MLBTR and Dipoto discussed this week. Seattle’s baseball ops president also spoke with Darragh about the volume of trades for which he’s gained the “Trader Jerry” nickname, reuniting with Suárez after trading him away two seasons ago, re-signing Polanco despite his injury-plagued first season with the club, and the increasing difficulty of trading prospects for major league talent with fewer teams embarking on five-plus year rebuilds than there were a few seasons ago.

The Reds Could Have Starting Pitching To Trade This Offseason

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Not long ago, the Reds found themselves in possession of what looked to be a borderline surplus of infielders. Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Jonathan India, Noelvi Marte, Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand all had varying levels big league experience even before Cincinnati signed Jeimer Candelario to a three-year contract. A wide range of opinions on how to best divide the playing time persisted, but the Reds had the makings of a formidable collection of young bats.

Fast forward a few years, and none of that has really panned out. As MLBTR's Anthony Franco explored last month, that group has turned over a fair bit. Marte now patrols the outfield more than the infield. India is in Kansas City, traded last winter in exchange for right-hander Brady Singer. Candelario was released halfway through what has turned out to be a significant misstep of a signing. Encarnacion-Strand has been beset by injury. Steer has bounced all around the diamond, including in the outfield, but he's settled in more at first base. De La Cruz is entrenched at shortstop. McLain, who's struggled in the wake of 2024 shoulder surgery, remains an ongoing question mark. Top prospect Sal Stewart was recently promoted to the majors for his first look, giving them yet another high-upside infield piece to consider.

Even with that prior glut of infielders, the Reds felt compelled to trade for Ke'Bryan Hayes at this year's deadline and infielder/outfielder Gavin Lux last offseason. The overall offense in Cincinnati has been tepid, at best. The Reds, despite playing in perhaps the most homer-friendly park in the sport, rank 23rd in MLB with 146 home runs. They're 13th in runs scored, 16th in batting average and on-base percentage, and 21st in slugging percentage. The offense is ... fine. It's not a glaring deficiency, but it's also not going to turn any heads.

On the other side of the game, however, the Reds have enjoyed a more significant boom. Cincinnati's pitching staff is virtually teeming with enticing young options. Even with Nick Martinez and deadline pickup Zack Littell slated to become free agents, the Reds are deep in rotation arms. The aforementioned Singer is the priciest of the bunch heading into 2026, as he'll be due a raise on his $8.75MM salary, presumably pushing him past $12MM. The rest of the group is generally affordable, if not making at or very near the league minimum.

It's a fine line to walk, of course, as any "surplus" in baseball can dry out in a hurry, but this version of the Reds seems well positioned to flip some of that pitching talent in exchange for some offensive firepower when the offseason rolls around.

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Poll: Shota Imanaga’s Contract Option

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After being largely overshadowed by Yoshinobu Yamamoto when he was posted for MLB clubs during the 2023-24 offseason, southpaw Shota Imanaga landed with the Cubs on a deal that has worked out well for Chicago so far. Imanaga was an All-Star and the fifth-place finisher in NL Cy Young voting during his first season, and this year he’s chipped in a strong 3.21 ERA across his 22 starts. Chicago is squarely focused on October at the moment, with their first postseason berth since 2020 all but clinched. Once the postseason comes to an end and the offseason jumps to front of mind, however, the Cubs will face a significant decision regarding Imanaga because of the unusual nature of his contract.

Nominally, the contract is a four-year deal worth that guarantees the southpaw $53MM. That’s not quite how the contract actually works in practice. After the 2025 season, the Cubs face a decision on whether to pick up a three-year, $57MM club option that covers the 2026-28 seasons. If Chicago declines, Imanaga will have a $15MM player option for 2026. If that player option is executed, then there’s another fork in the road ahead. After 2026, the Cubs would have to decide on a two-year, $42MM club option for 2027-28. If they decline that, Imanaga can pick up a $15MM player option for 2027.

All of that is to say that the Cubs are facing a significant decision this offseason. If they don’t exercise their three-year option on Imanaga’s services, he’s all but certain to decline that player option and return to free agency. One-year rolls of the dice on older players like Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton last offseason cost $15MM, so it’s all but guaranteed that Imanaga could do better than that if he were to test free agency. The question then becomes if Chicago wants to keep Imanaga in the fold for the next three seasons for that aforementioned $57MM figure.

On the surface, that might appear to be an obvious choice. Imanaga is an All-Star with a career 3.04 ERA in the majors and is a big part of the Cubs’ success this year. A look at Imanaga’s underlying numbers paints a slightly less certain picture, and that’s especially true for this season. A hamstring injury cost Imanaga nearly two months, so he is not qualified for the ERA title. That said, among 92 starters with at least 120 innings, the lefty’s 4.55 FIP is tied with teammate Colin Rea for 65th. His 4.57 xFIP ranks 73rd, and 4.43 SIERA ranks 61st.

With Imanaga ranking in the bottom third of the league among starters this year by so many metrics, it’s worth at least looking under the hood to see what’s causing that downturn in peripherals. Only 15 starters in baseball (again, min. 120 innings) have a higher opponents’ barrel rate than Imanaga, and that’s left him very susceptible to the long ball. Just 14 starters in that group have allowed more home runs, despite Imanaga’s relatively small volume of innings. His ERA would be much higher without the fourth-highest strand rate in that set of starters.

Imanaga also has a .209 BABIP that’s the lowest among that same group by nearly 20 points and 55 points lower than his own figure last season. He’s benefited from some pretty significant luck when it comes to batted balls and sequencing. Imanaga’s four-seamer, sinker, and sweeper have all lost a tick of velocity relative to last year. He now sits just 90.8 mph on average with the heater, and while velocity isn’t necessarily a requirement to find success in the majors, the decrease is somewhat concerning when looking at his 20.2% strikeout rate — down from 25.1% last season.

Are those red flags concerning enough that the Cubs should really consider letting him walk? While much of Imanaga’s success at beating his peripherals this year can be chalked up to good fortune, consideration must also be made for Chicago’s excellent defense. The Cubs figure to have both Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field and Dansby Swanson at shortstop well past the end of the 2028 season, and with elite defensive talents working behind Imanaga it’s feasible that he could continue beating those peripheral numbers.

Another consideration is the possibility that Imanaga’s underlying numbers could improve next season with a normal start to the season. Between the Cubs’ trip to Japan for a two-game set against the Dodgers and the lefty’s early hamstring ailment, Imanaga had an unusual start to 2025. His strikeout rate has ticked back up to 23.1% clip since since the All-Star break, and he actually punched out 26.2% of his opponents in August, so maybe that trend line could create some optimism.

Regardless of whether more strikeouts and stronger peripherals can be expected for Imanaga, there’s an argument that three years and $57MM is a solid value for even a middle-of-the-road starter on the current market. Talented arms with All-Star track records can make a pretty penny on an annual basis, even entering their age-32 seasons, as Imanaga will be next year.

As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi and Sonny Gray all secured $75MM over three years for contracts beginning at age 32 or later. Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Bassitt landed $63MM guarantees over three-year terms heading into their age-34 seasons. The current $19MM AAV on the three years covered by that club option isn’t much larger than the $17.5MM AAV the Yankees paid a 33-year-old Marcus Stroman over two years and coming off a season with lesser results.

While Justin Steele will return from UCL surgery next year and Cade Horton has emerged as a long-term rotation piece, players like Matthew Boyd and Jameson Taillon are set to depart the Cubs rotation after 2026. Having another arm locked up for the long haul could have value for the Cubs so that they aren’t scrambling for innings going forward.

What do MLBTR readers think the Cubs should do about Imanaga’s contract option? Should they pick up that three years and $57MM for Imanaga’s age-32 through age-34 seasons, or should they bet that they can do better and give him the chance to walk? Have your say in the poll below:

Should The Cubs Exercise Their Three-Year, $57MM Option On Shota Imanaga?
Yes, lock Imanaga up for 2026-28 despite his shaky peripherals. 91.28% (1,424 votes)
No, decline the option and risk him walking in free agency. 8.72% (136 votes)
Total Votes: 1,560

Poll link, in case above is not working.

Poll: Who Will Round Out The AL Playoff Field?

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While most of the league’s postseason races are more or less wrapped up at this point, one highly competitive race remains: that for the final AL Wild Card spot. The Yankees and Red Sox have commanding leads for the first two spots that have pushed their playoff odds (per FanGraphs) to 99.7% and 97.4% respectively, but the rest of the field remains fairly open. Three clubs are within two games of the final spot. Who will make it to October among that group? A look at each of those teams:

Seattle Mariners (73-67)

The Mariners are currently in control of the final AL Wild Card spot. Cal Raleigh is in the midst of an MVP-caliber season behind the plate, and he’s been supported by Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena in the middle of the lineup. Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez were added at the trade deadline to help further bolster the offense. Suarez slumped for his first two-plus weeks back in Seattle but is back to form, hitting .265/.345/.592 over his past 14 games.

The rotation that was widely expected to be the club’s strength, however, has looked fairly pedestrian. Only Bryan Woo has stood out from the crowd as George Kirby, Luis Castillo, and Logan Gilbert have all been closer to average starters than ace-caliber arms. Bryce Miller was injured for much of the year and has struggled when healthy. Still, the bullpen remains elite, and the club is in solid position in the standings even after this week’s sweep at the hands of the Rays. They have an outside shot at winning the AL West, sitting 3.5 games out with a three-game set against the Astros later this month. They’ll need to fend off the Royals in Kansas City for three games as well.

Texas Rangers (72-69)

Sitting just 1.5 games back of the Mariners, Texas is in position to pounce if Seattle falters. A schedule that gives them six games against Houston as they sit five games back in the AL West leaves a small chance at capturing the division or perhaps pushing the Astros far enough down the standings that the Mariners claim the West while the Rangers take the Wild Card for themselves.

Even with the advantage of controlling their own destiny, actually making good on that will be difficult for Texas. Key players like Nathan Eovaldi, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Tyler Mahle and Evan Carter are all on the injured list. Wyatt Langford will be leaned on heavily to help carry the offense. A resurgent Jacob deGrom and deadline acquisition Merrill Kelly are still on hand to lead the rotation, and former No. 2 pick Jack Leiter has been excellent over his past 12 starts (2.89 ERA, 28.2 K%). Will the remaining pieces of the team be enough to push them into the playoffs?

Kansas City Royals (71-69)

Like the Rangers, the Royals have managed to hang around the Wild Card race despite significant injuries. Kris Bubic and Cole Ragans have missed much of the year, and Seth Lugo has now joined them on the shelf. That leaves Michael Wacha and rookie Noah Cameron as the team’s most likely starters for the Wild Card series if they can make it into the postseason.

The good news is that the addition of Mike Yastrzemski has been a game-changer for the lineup. He’s belted seven homers in 107 plate appearances and batted .242/.327/.560 overall in Kansas City, joining Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia, and Bobby Witt Jr. to form an impressive top four. Carlos Estevez and Lucas Erceg are a quality duo at the back-end of the bullpen, and three home games against the Mariners give them plenty of control over their fate.

Tampa Bay Rays (71-69)

Baseball’s hottest team has won seven games in a row, including a sweep of the Mariners in Seattle and a Thursday victory over the Guardians that pushed Cleveland 3.5 games out in the Wild Card chase. Junior Caminero is the envy of the league at third base, Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe are as impressive as ever in the middle of the lineup, and Drew Rasmussen (2.66 ERA over his past 10 starts) looks capable of going head-to-head with just about any pitcher as a Game One starter. Thirteen games against the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Cubs over the course of the rest of the season leave the Rays with plenty of adversity, but perhaps their young talent can stay hot and push them to October.

Which of these teams will come out on top and join the Blue Jays, Tigers, Yankees, Red Sox, and Astros in the postseason? Will the Mariners be able to hold on? Will the Royals or Rangers overcome their injury woes to force their way in? Or can the Rays stay hot through the end of the year? Have your say in the poll below:

Which Team Will Make The Postseason?
Seattle Mariners 58.73% (2,190 votes)
Tampa Bay Rays 14.86% (554 votes)
Texas Rangers 14.62% (545 votes)
Kansas City Royals 11.80% (440 votes)
Total Votes: 3,729

Is Jordan Walker Still A Core Player In St. Louis?

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The Cardinals have maintained this season is primarily about evaluating young players. It felt like a potential make-or-break year for Jordan Walker, in particular. Walker was viewed as an impact bat when he was a prospect. He impressed with a .276/.342/.445 showing with 16 homers as a 21-year-old rookie.

That promising debut feels like an increasingly distant memory. Walker regressed to a .201/.253/.366 line in 51 major league games last year. He spent a good portion of the season in Triple-A, where he was an average hitter. The Cards maintained that Walker would play every day in the majors this year. That’d give them more clarity on whether he projects as a core piece as John Mozeliak turns over baseball operations to Chaim Bloom going into 2026.

The audition has not gone well. Walker has battled a couple health issues. He missed a few weeks in early June with wrist inflammation, then lost around three weeks in the middle of the summer to appendicitis. He has been unproductive when healthy. Walker has managed just five home runs across 331 plate appearances. He’s batting .218/.272/.309 while striking out at a career-high 31.7% clip.

There are 249 hitters who have taken at least 300 trips to the plate. Walker is among the bottom ten in both on-base percentage and slugging. Most of the players with similarly poor numbers at least have defensive value to fall back upon. Walker is already in a corner outfield spot and grades as a well below-average right fielder. He hasn’t shown any sustained signs of figuring things out offensively. Walker carries a .229/.279/.328 line with poor strikeout and walk numbers in 37 games since his second injured list stint.

The Cardinals have continued playing him regularly, as they said they would coming into the season. That probably won’t carry into 2026 if Walker doesn’t make significant improvements. Hitting coach Brant Brown and manager Oli Marmol each had a blunt assessment of the 23-year-old on Tuesday.

“At some point in time, he’s going to have to devote more focus on preparation,” Brown told Bernie Miklasz of KMOX when asked what it’ll take for Walker to be more consistent (around 10:30 mark). “We’ve had long conversations with this. It’s not only looking at film on the (opposing) starter but also being able to come in on the first day of a series and taking a look at all the bullpen guys. All the information and video is available. Just so we’re not getting snuck up on when a guy comes in.” Brown then spoke more generally about the offense and suggested some hitters have had a tendency to press, especially when they’re going through slumps, and become overly focused on targeting specific pitches.

After Brown’s comments, Marmol spoke with Derrick Goold of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “I need to see Jordan have a sense of urgency for the things that need to take place in order to give him consistent results,” the skipper said in response to a question about the team’s short-term hope. “That goes with his move toward the ball, his preparation in the cage but also his approach in a game. … You have to start to see progress. It think it’s important as you are evaluating the next month, you need to start to see progress and consistency.”

Walker addressed Marmol’s comments yesterday. He said he “(doesn’t) quite understand the urgency part” of the manager’s statement (link via Jeff Jones of The Belleville News-Democrat). Walker pointed to his best stretch of the season, when he hit .304 with a .373 on-base percentage in the first two weeks out of the All-Star Break. He said he felt comfortable with his approach during that run and was working with Brown to get back to that feel.

The coaches maintained they believe Walker can have a bright future. “There’s a combination of talent but also I do feel there’s going to be buy-in. There’s a level of aptitude there that’ll allow for it,” Marmol told KMOX. “He’s young. … Walker did have a little bit of success when he first came up here. Once they know how to pitch you, they just double down on that until you prove that you can combat it. He hasn’t shown the ability to do that yet.

There’s enough talent there that I’m nowhere close to giving up on Jordan Walker,” Marmol continued. “There are adjustments to be made. There’s a commitment to the pregame work that can get to a better level, and Brownie spoke to that earlier. … I feel like he has an opportunity to make these adjustments and be the type of player that we were hoping for when he first got up here.”

That may well be the case, but the Cardinals will be hard-pressed to commit to Walker as an everyday player if they more seriously hope to compete for a playoff spot in 2026. Bloom was not part of the front office when Walker was drafted or developed into a top prospect. It’s not clear how bullish he is on the player.

Walker still has a minor league option remaining, so the Cards could send him back to Triple-A Memphis next season. That’d buy them another development season but runs the risk of completely tanking his trade value if he doesn’t improve. There’d surely be teams willing to take a flier on Walker this offseason if the Cardinals wanted to move on in a sell-low trade. They’ll face a similar question on third baseman/second baseman Nolan Gorman, who has been better than Walker but a league average hitter overall.

St. Louis also has an increasingly crowded corner outfield. Lars Nootbaar remains a solid everyday left fielder. Alec Burleson, who is currently sidelined by a wrist issue, has a career-best .286/.337/.451 slash. Brown raved about Burleson’s improved approach. Iván Herrera has been one of the team’s top hitters. The Cardinals haven’t played him at catcher in two months, pushing him mostly to designated hitter with occasional left field work. That probably points to Walker beginning next season in Triple-A (if everyone’s healthy out of camp) unless the Cardinals trade someone over the offseason.

Image courtesy of Jeff Curry, Imagn Images.

Poll: Will Anything Shake Up The NL Playoff Picture?

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The playoff race in the American League figures to be a photo finish, with the AL East and AL West division titles both still up for grabs and four teams not currently in a postseason spot still within three games of the final AL Wild Card spot. By contrast, the National League looks very stable. Two of the league’s three division leaders have a lead of more than five games, and zero teams not already in the playoff picture are within three games of the final NL Wild Card spot. With just over 20 games left to play for every team, does that mean the NL playoff teams are set in stone? Let’s take a look at the state of the race:

The one place where the NL is within three games of a meaningful shift is the NL West, where the Dodgers hold a 2.5 game lead over the Padres. That division has been something of a dogfight for the whole second half. While the Dodgers were nine games up on their competition just two months ago, strong play from the Padres in conjunction with an aggressive trade deadline that saw the club bring in Mason Miller, Ramon Laureano, and Ryan O’Hearn (among others) was enough to push them back into contention. They even claimed sole possession of first place in the division twice during the month of August, though both of those stays at the top of the mountain were short-lived.

While it wasn’t long ago that the Padres were right there with the Dodgers in the NL West race, it’s becoming difficult to see them overtaking their rivals. A 7-12 record since Los Angeles kicked off a three-game sweep of San Diego on August 15 has left the Padres flailing, and while the Dodgers have gone just 7-8 since that series concluded, there are no regular season contests remaining between the two clubs during which the Padres can make up significant ground. If there’s one thing going for San Diego in this race, it’s the strength of the club’s schedule. Ten games left against the Rockies and White Sox should leave a huge number of winnable games for the Padres to capitalize on, while L.A. is faced with seven games against the surging Giants and a three-game set with the Phillies before wrapping the regular season in Seattle.

Speaking of the Giants, they’ve sneakily gone 9-1 in their last ten games and have won each of their last four series. With 7.5 games separating them and the Dodgers, they’d need to do exceptionally well in those final two series against Los Angeles to have any sort of shot at forcing their way back into the conversation for the division title. San Francisco’s surge could realistically put them into the NL Wild Card conversation if things continue trending in the right direction, however. Aside from those aforementioned seven games against the Dodgers, the Giants face sub-.500 teams in their other 15 games remaining on the schedule.

That could be a soft enough schedule to provide some intrigue headed into the season’s final weeks, though the 71-70 Giants certainly have their work cut out for them. The Reds sit one game back of them with a 70-70 record, but arguably have more control over their own destiny than San Francisco does thanks to back-to-back series against the Mets and Padres over the course of the next week. Winning both of those series would more seriously put Cincinnati in the conversation for a playoff berth, but that could prove to be a tall order. The Cardinals and Diamondbacks are both lurking around the periphery of the race as well, but with identical 70-71 records and exceptionally tough schedules this September, it’s tough to see either club mounting a comeback.

As for the other two divisions, the Phillies and Brewers more or less appear to have their divisions wrapped up at this point with 5.5- and 6.0-game leads, respectively. Perhaps the Phillies dropping their four-game set against the Mets in Philadelphia next week could reintroduce some intrigue into that race, but with the Cubs/Brewers season wrapped up and a soft September schedule in Milwaukee it would take a shocking collapse for the Brew Crew to fall out of the top spot in the NL Central.

What do MLBTR readers think about the state of the NL playoff race? Will any of the division titles change hands by the time the regular season comes to a close? Will a team like the Giants or Reds manage to worm their way into a postseason spot? Or will the playoff picture look more or less identical to today when the season comes to a close? Have your say in the polls below:

Will Any Of The Division Leaders In The NL Change By The End Of The Regular Season?
No 67.73% (1,448 votes)
Yes 32.27% (690 votes)
Total Votes: 2,138
How Will The NL Wild Card Race Shake Out?
The teams currently in playoff position will hold onto their spots. 64.08% (1,577 votes)
The Giants will make the playoffs. 20.07% (494 votes)
The Reds will make the playoffs. 10.12% (249 votes)
Another team will make the playoffs. 5.73% (141 votes)
Total Votes: 2,461
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