Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Originals

Poll: AL MVP Race Check-In

By | at

Back in June, MLBTR conducted a pair of polls checking the temperature on the two MVP races, and both polls saw the league’s reigning MVP earn a dominating majority. Aaron Judge pulled in 55% of the vote in the American League poll, while Shohei Ohtani did even better as he commanded 57% of the vote in the National League’s poll. Since then, Ohtani has broken away from the pack in the NL as he’s more fully resumed two-way duties. While other players like Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Pete Crow-Armstrong have put together excellent seasons of their own in the NL, it’s hard to see that race as anything other than Ohtani’s to lose headed into the final month of the season.

By contrast, the AL MVP race has tightened considerably over the past two months. A big part of that is the fact that  Judge hasn’t looked like his usual superhuman self lately. The 33-year-old is still slashing an absurd .323/.439/.667 (193 wRC+), a figure that leads the majors by a substantial margin. However, Judge’s numbers have come down quite a bit in the past two months. Since the day our last AL MVP poll was published, Judge has hit “just” .240/.385/.540 with 12 homers and a 26% strikeout rate in 192 trips to the plate.

That lack of volume is thanks to a flexor strain in Judge’s elbow that sent him to the injured list for a minimum stint a few weeks ago, and his .210/.380/.403 slash line since returning from the injured list only underscores that he’s not playing at full strength. He’s also been relegated to a DH-only role for the month of August and has no timetable for his return to the outfield, though he’s already begun making throws to the infield in pregame workouts.

Of course, Judge looking mortal for a month or so wouldn’t be terribly noteworthy without someone mounting a substantial challenge for his league’s MVP award. Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is doing exactly that. Raleigh’s phenomenal season has earned him plenty of attention all year, but he’s only garnered more attention as an MVP candidate in the weeks since Judge’s injury. Interestingly, Raleigh’s offensive numbers have slumped a bit right alongside Judge. While he was slashing .278/.383/.665 at the time of our last AL MVP poll, he’s hit a less robust .204/.311/.498 in 235 plate appearances since then. That includes a .202/.302/.524 slash line in August that isn’t all that far ahead of Judge’s numbers.

Even with the pair both cooling at the plate, Raleigh has still been playing catcher regularly and hasn’t missed time on the IL like Judge has. Raleigh, who secured just 37% of the vote in our last poll, now has eight more games played and 31 more plate appearances than Judge. It’s a small gap, but in a close race, an increased defensive workload and slight lead in terms of overall volume could be key differentiators.

There’s also the factor of history to be considered. Judge managed to surpass Ohtani in the 2022 AL MVP race in part because he set the AL home run record that season. Raleigh would need to hit 13 homers before the end of the season in order to take the title of AL home run king away from Judge, but his prodigious power has already secured him one piece of history that Judge has no hope of taking away: last night, he became the first catcher in MLB history to slug 50 homers in a season. All of that comes together to make Raleigh a legitimate contender for the award alongside Judge, and the fact that the pair are tied at the top of the MLB leaderboard with 7.3 fWAR a piece only further speaks to the viability of both candidates.

Few players in the AL have a realistic shot of challenging these two titans, but one player who could make an interesting case for himself with a strong September would be Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., who finished second for the award behind Judge last year. Witt only received token consideration for the award in our last poll, garnering just 2.3% of the vote two months ago. Since then, however, he’s outperformed both Judge and Raleigh with a .313/.370/.524 slash line, a 13-for-14 record on the bases, and defense at shortstop that should make him a lock for his second consecutive Gold Glove award at the position. Witt’s 6.5 fWAR and 130 wRC+ both substantially trail Judge and Raleigh at this point, but if those two continue trending downward while Witt continues trending up, it’s at least possible that we could be in for a three-horse race.

Who do MLBTR readers think will ultimately win this year’s AL MVP award? Will Judge hold onto the title for the second year in a row? Will Raleigh’s historic season behind the plate be enough? Could Witt’s second-half surge be enough to overcome both of them? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Is Geographic Realignment A Good Idea?

By | at

Commissioner Rob Manfred created quite a bit of buzz around the baseball world last week when he made comments on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball last weekend that suggested the league’s desired expansion to 32 teams could be coupled with a dramatic realignment of MLB’s current structure.

“I think if we expand, it provides us with an opportunity to geographically realign,” Manfred said on the broadcast. “I think we could save a lot of wear and tear on our players in terms of travel. And I think our postseason format would be even more appealing for entities like ESPN, because you’d be playing out of the east and out of the west.”

The possibility of MLB following in the footsteps of other American sports, like the NBA and NFL, by adopting an eastern/western conference layout as opposed to the current AL vs NL structure is certainly an interesting one. Fans of teams on the east coast and even in the midwest have long bemoaned the late night games associated with west coast road trips, and Manfred’s suggestion that a geographic realignment could lessen the burden of travel on players throughout baseball’s marathon schedule is difficult to argue with. Fans have little reason to care about the desirability of postseason games for broadcasters like ESPN and FOX, but both Manfred’s comments and simple common sense would indicate that possibility will be highly appealing to the league, as well.

Of course, the downsides to a potential geographic realignment are obvious. Baseball is a sport steeped in history, and the loss of the AL/NL structure would necessarily complicate our view of that history. Had the league moved away from the AL/NL structure previously, would Aaron Judge’s chase for 62 home runs in 2022 have been nearly as noteworthy? Without a division between the two leagues, Judge would simply be seventh on the single-season home run leaderboard, rather than the AL record holder. And that’s before considering the possibility of lost rivalries. There’s several ways that MLB could look to realign geographically, but many proposals (including one from Mike Axisa of CBA Sports) would split up historic rivalries like Cubs/Cardinals and Dodgers/Giants. That would be a tough pill to swallow for those teams, who view their longtime rivalries as a key part of their team’s culture and history.

On the other hand, the distinction between baseball’s two leagues has been eroding for years now. The NL has adopted the designated hitter rule, the All Star game no longer determines home field advantage in the World Series, and the schedule has been altered so that every team plays every other team in at least one series per season regardless of league. That amount of inter-league play would guarantee that even rivalries split by this geographic realignment, like the Cubs and Cardinals in Axisa’s proposal, would still play each other on occasion. It’s also worth noting that many interleague rivalries, such as Mets/Yankees and Cubs/White Sox, would benefit from more games on the schedule each year if they were to be pushed into the same conference by geographic realignment.

Realignment on some level is inevitable, as with 32 teams it would be impossible to create six even divisions. Still, that doesn’t mean the AL/NL structure must be lost entirely. Stephen J. Nesbitt of The Athletic was among those to propose a realignment structure that would preserve the status quo for the most part, with only a handful of changes to the current structure as both leagues would move from three divisions of five teams to four divisions of four teams. Under Nesbitt’s plan, the Rockies and Rays would swap to the AL and NL respectively, but all other teams would remain in their current league and no historic rivals would be divided. Of course, maintaining what fans appreciate about the current structure would also mean maintaining many of its frustrations; late night games for fans on the east coast whenever their club takes a road trip out west, and a more much more extreme travel schedule for the players.

How do MLBTR readers feel about the possibility of geographic realignment coming to the majors? Would changing the league’s current structure so drastically detract from the sport’s history for little benefit, or with the leagues already more similar than ever is a major shakeup worth if it improves travel- and timezone-related experience for fans and players alike? Have your say in the poll below:

Which Other Players Could End Up On Waivers This Month?

By | at

The second half of August brings an uptick in waiver placements. Beyond the trade deadline, waivers are the only real option for player movement from one team to another. A few teams that were fringe contenders at the end of July know now that they're almost certainly going to miss the postseason. Placing veterans with semi-notable salaries on waivers gives them a chance to dump the final few weeks of a contract. Other teams aren't going to claim a terrible contract, but there's sometimes a balance where the player's salary is solid value but isn't of much use to a team that is going to miss the playoffs anyway.

This can take on added importance for teams that are right up against the luxury tax. The Angels kicked this practice into gear two years ago, offloading Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López and Matt Moore to slide narrowly below the CBT threshold. That at least allowed them to recoup a better draft pick when Shohei Ohtani walked in free agency. It's not only about tax avoidance, though. A lot of teams would welcome the opportunity just to cut a few hundred thousand dollars off the books in a losing season.

Within the past week, Rangers righty Jon Gray has already gone unclaimed on waivers. He was subsequently placed on the injured list due to thoracic outlet syndrome and will probably remain on the IL for the rest of the season. Marlins starter Cal Quantrill hit waivers within the past day or two; it's to be seen whether another team will pick up the approximate $734K that he's owed through season's end. Waiver placements that are not preceded by a DFA aren't publicly announced by teams. They're often leaked to reporters, but it's entirely possible there have already been a few notable names who have cleared or are on waivers that haven't gotten out.

The late-August timing isn't coincidental. Players must be in an organization by the start of September to be eligible for postseason play. Teams can still go the waiver route in September, but other clubs are less likely to place a claim next month because those players cannot help in the playoffs. Waiting until the end of August gives the current team as much time as possible to see where they're at in the standings. It also reduces the cost to a potential claiming team to around four weeks of salary, perhaps making someone more likely to place a claim at the end of the month than they would have been a few weeks ago (when the remaining salary would be around twice as high).

It's worth reiterating that the teams placing the player on waivers are hoping another team makes a claim. Sending a veteran through unclaimed has little to no benefit. Most of them have the five-plus service years to refuse a minor league assignment, so teams usually proceed as if nothing happened if the player goes unclaimed. They could place them back on waivers in a week or two to see if another club is more willing to bite because of the lower remaining salary and/or intervening injuries.

Which players could find themselves on waivers within the next 10 days? There's a clear team with which to start -- a club that bought at the deadline but has been in a free fall ever since while they sit right against the luxury line.

Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription

BENEFITS
  • Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
  • Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
  • Remove ads and support our writers.
  • Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker

Poll: How Will Kyle Tucker Finish 2025?

By | at

Ever since Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed a massive extension with the Blue Jays back in April, Kyle Tucker has been viewed as the consensus top player in this winter’s free agent class. It’s not hard to see why, as he’s a four-time All-Star, a former Gold Glove and Silver Slugger award winner, and the fifth-place finisher in AL MVP voting in 2023. That resume is what convinced the Cubs to trade All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes, top prospect Cam Smith, and young starter Hayden Wesneski to the Astros last winter in order to acquire Tucker in his final year of club control.

It’s a decision that paid off in a big way during the first half of the season. Through the end of June, Tucker slashed an phenomenal .291/.395/.537 across 83 games. Among qualified hitters, only Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, Shohei Ohtani, and Will Smith had a higher wRC+ than Tucker’s 158 during that stretch. While it wasn’t quite on par with the otherworldly 179 wRC+ Tucker posted in 78 games with the Astros last year, it was still an undeniably dominant showing that led to many wondering if he would join Guerrero and Juan Soto in clearing the $500MM benchmark upon hitting free agency this winter.

Once the calendar flipped to July, however, things changed for Tucker in a hurry. In 163 plate appearances since the start of July, Tucker has hit just .189/.325/.235 with a wRC+ of just 72. He’s tallied just four extra-base hits in that time and has gone a full month without hitting a home run at this point after launching his last long ball on July 19. Tucker’s slump has been lengthy enough and severe enough that club manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Patrick Mooney of The Athletic) yesterday that he plans to give Tucker “some days off” in hopes of helping him reset and get back on track.

That the Cubs are sitting a player who looked like a legitimate MVP candidate just over a month ago is inherently shocking, but it’s hard not to see why given his recent performance. It’s fair to wonder how Tucker’s deep struggles of late may have impacted his market in free agency, as well. After all, a major calling card for Tucker has been his consistency and reliability as a middle-of-the-order force. An extended slump such as this one puts a hole in that narrative, especially when combined with him missing half of last season due to injury.

When looking at other outfielders who signed mega deals in free agency, Tucker’s resume doesn’t quite measure up. He no longer seems likely to wind up with an absurd platform season like Judge (nine years, $360MM) put together in 2022, and he’s three years older than Bryce Harper (13 years, $330MM) was when he reached free agency. The inflation top-level MLB contracts have seen in recent years should help Tucker, especially as compared to Harper’s contract from all the way back in the 2018-19 offseason, but if his season doesn’t turn around going forward he may not even crack the $400MM threshold in free agency, much less $500MM.

So, will Tucker be able to turn things around? There’s certainly some reasons for optimism. Most notably, his discipline at the plate has remained elite even during his slump. Since July 1, Tucker has actually walked (16.0%) more often than he’s struck out (15.3%). His .224 BABIP during that period suggests some positive regression could be on the way in terms of batted ball luck, but even underlying metrics like hard-hit rate (27.9%) and barrel rate (2.7%) suggest he’s earned his lack of power production. There’s been speculation in some circles that a finger injury suffered when sliding into second base could be the cause of his power outage, but that’s a somewhat dubious claim between Tucker himself suggesting his finger has not caused him problems at the plate and the fact that he had a 14.7% barrel rate and 42.6% hard-hit rate in 24 June games following his return from the injury.

It would be a shock if Tucker truly batted below the Mendoza line with virtually no power the rest of the way this year. He’s been a bottom 20 player in baseball since July 1 in terms of wRC+, and it’s practically unheard of for a player of his caliber to perform that poorly for that long when not dealing with some sort of physical issue or age-related decline. With that said, it’s worth noting that Tucker’s recent slump has actually put his 2025 numbers more or less in line with his career norms. Tucker is hitting .261/.374/.447 with a 131 wRC+ overall this year. Through the end of the 2023 season, Tucker was a career .272/.345/.507 (132 wRC+) hitter.

Those slash lines are awfully similar, and it stands to reason that it’s at least possible Tucker’s incredible 78-game 2024 campaign was simply an outlier. On the other hand, it must also be noted that Tucker put together 709 plate appearances between the start of the 2024 season and the end of June 2025 where he hit a combined .290/.401/.559 with a wRC+ of 168. Only Judge (218), Ohtani (179), and Soto (171) posted better numbers during that time frame. It shouldn’t shock anyone if Tucker is able to recapture some of that production over the season’s final six weeks and ends up with a strong platform year, even if it doesn’t quite reach the heights that looked possible two months ago.

What do MLBTR readers think is in store for Tucker over the final weeks of the 2025 campaign? Will he be able to turn things around and quell any doubts created by his recent struggles? Will his slump continue and push his season numbers lower than they are now? Or will his numbers settle in as he levels off somewhere close to his career norms? Have your say in the poll below:

Vesting Options Update: Giolito, Polanco, Strahm

By | at

The upcoming free agent class doesn’t feature a ton of players whose contracts contain vesting options. Marcus Stroman’s deal with the Yankees would’ve contained an $18MM player option had he reached 140 innings, but an early-season knee injury made that impossible. The Yanks released him earlier this month anyhow.

While Stroman’s option was a non-factor, a trio of players are closing in on their own vesting provisions.

  • Lucas Giolito, Red Sox RHP ($14MM club option converts to $19MM mutual option at 140 innings; $1.5MM buyout in either case)

Giolito is up to 106 2/3 innings across 19 starts. He needs another 33 1/3 frames to convert next season’s $14MM team option into a $19MM mutual provision. That’d allow him to decline his end and retest free agency as he heads into his age-31 campaign. He’d very likely do so and could command a three-plus year contract.

The righty’s season numbers aren’t exceptional. Giolito carries a 3.63 earned run average with a 19.6% strikeout percentage that is his lowest since his terrible 2018 campaign. He had a trio of blowups in his first seven appearances after missing all of last season to an internal brace surgery. He has been locked in over the past two-plus months. In his last 12 starts, Giolito carries a 2.34 ERA while averaging over six innings per appearance. His 20.4% strikeout rate still isn’t great, and he has benefitted from a .229 opponents average on balls in play, but he at least looks the part of a durable mid-rotation arm again.

Giolito has a good shot to reach 140 innings. He’d need to average a little under six innings per start over his next six appearances. If he stays healthy, he should take the ball at least seven times — which would give him leeway in case he has one bad outing in which he’s knocked out after two or three frames. Even a minimal injured list stint would take it off the table, though.

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said over the weekend that the Sox had no intention of changing Giolito’s workload to keep him from vesting the option. No front office executive would publicly admit otherwise, of course, but there’s no reason to doubt Breslow in this case. The Red Sox are trying to secure a postseason berth. Even if they were out of contention, limiting a player’s workload so they could exercise an option to keep that player at a below-market rate wouldn’t make for an especially good relationship. If he gets to free agency, Giolito could take aim at something like the three-year deals secured by Luis Severino ($67MM with an opt-out after the second season) and Sean Manaea ($75MM with deferrals).

  • Jorge Polanco, Mariners DH/2B ($8MM mutual option converts to $6MM player option at 450 plate appearances, escalates to $8MM player option at 550 plate appearances; $750K buyout in either case)*

Polanco re-signed with Seattle last offseason on a somewhat complicated deal that reflected his health uncertainty coming off left knee surgery. The deal contains an $8MM mutual option which would vest into a $6MM player provision if Polanco reaches 450 plate appearances. Polanco has taken 395 trips to the dish. He’s 55 plate appearances from reaching the vesting mark, and he’d escalate the player option price back to $8MM if he tallies another 155 trips before season’s end.

Initially, the Mariners looked to have struck gold with that surprise re-signing. Polanco blasted nine home runs while hitting .384 through the end of April. Even with knee and side discomfort limiting him to early-season DH work, he looked rejuvenated. Polanco’s production completely tanked over the next two months, however. He had a huge July but is back to a .213/.275/.298 showing in 14 games this month.

Polanco has hit .209/.283/.344 across 315 plate appearances since the beginning of May. His season batting line (.245/.310/.439) is still above-average, but there have been significant peaks and valleys. Cole Young has taken over at second base. While Eugenio Suárez’s impending free agency leaves an opening at third base, Polanco hasn’t shown he’s healthy enough to play there regularly. There’s a good chance the Mariners would buy out their end of the option if it remains a mutual provision. Polanco only needs to start another 13 or 14 games to give himself more security.

That shouldn’t be a problem with 36 games remaining on the schedule. The M’s have sat him in each of their past two games against left-handed opponents, but he continues to play regularly versus righties. He’s highly unlikely to get all the way to 550 PA’s to push the player option to $8MM, but he should easily unlock the $6MM player option that’ll give him the unilateral decision whether to return to free agency.

* The vesting provision also requires that Polanco hasn’t suffered a lower body injury that’d prevent him from being ready for Opening Day 2026.

  • Matt Strahm, Phillies LHP ($5.5MM team option becomes guaranteed at $7.5MM at 60 innings)*

Strahm’s extension with the Phillies contained a $4.5MM club option for the 2026 season. The southpaw has already pushed that to $5.5MM and will escalate it to $6.5MM when he records two more outs. He’s 10 2/3 innings away from hitting the 60-inning threshold, at which point the price jumps to $7.5MM and becomes guaranteed.

In his case, it’s probably immaterial. Even if Strahm suffers a minor injury that keeps him from getting to 60 frames, the Phillies would probably exercise the option. Strahm is having another impressive season, working to a 3.10 ERA with six saves and 14 holds. His velocity has dropped a tick and he has lost a few points on his strikeout rate, but he has still punched out an above-average 27.7% of opponents. Strahm is one of Rob Thomson’s more trusted setup arms.

* The vesting provision also requires that Strahm pass a postseason physical.

Poll: Can The Mets Hang On To A Playoff Spot?

By | at

It’s been a rough few weeks for the Mets. While they managed to take two of three in their series against the Mariners this weekend, it was their first series win since they swept the Giants all the way back on the weekend of July 25. Since then, New York has gone just 4-14 and not only fallen five games back of the Phillies in the NL East, but is getting challenged by the insurgent Reds for the final NL Wild Card spot. Despite that brutal stretch of play in recent weeks, this isn’t exactly a new phenomenon. While the club was at one point up 5.5 games in the division, that was nearly two months ago at this point. They’ve gone 21-34 since then, good for a .318 winning percentage that falls between the full-season figures posted by the White Sox (.355) and Rockies (.282).

That makes the final six weeks of the regular season more important for the Mets than their fans could’ve imagined during their strong first half. The question for the Mets is less about the possibility of an NL East title and a bye through the Wild Card round at this point, and more about if they’ll be able to squeak into the postseason at all. The club attempted to break into what, at the time, looked to be a fairly wide-open race for a bye to the NLDS when they made a number of aggressive, buy-side trades in the run-up to the trade deadline.

Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers, and Gregory Soto joined Edwin Diaz at the back of what was expected to become the most fearsome bullpen in the league, and Cedric Mullins was brought in to plug the one hole on the team’s roster. The results of those trades have been mixed to this point, Soto (8 1/3 scoreless innings) and Rogers (1.93 ERA in 9 1/3 innings) have both excelled to this point, but Helsley has struggled to an ugly 7.11 ERA in eight appearances for the Mets so far, with four additional unearned runs allowed as well. Meanwhile, Mullins has a paltry .255 on-base percentage with a 29.1% strikeout rate since arriving in the Big Apple.

Perhaps the failings of Helsley and Mullins in their first few games with the team could be overlooked if the rest of the team was performing better, but the club’s internal core hasn’t exactly impressed lately either. Only six teams in baseball have scored fewer runs than the Mets since June 13, and while the offense has picked things up in recent weeks (124 wRC+ in August) their run prevention has taken a nosedive. Only four teams (Marlins, Pirates, Nationals, and Rockies) have allowed more runs to score than the Mets since the start of August, and the decision not to bring in a starter at the deadline is looking particularly disastrous given the club’s rotation has put together a brutal 6.23 ERA in the weeks following the end of trade season.

Bleak as things have looked in recent weeks, however, that shouldn’t be taken to mean there’s no reason for optimism. After all, the Mets are still in playoff position even after all of those struggles. Only Cincinnati has a record above .500 among NL clubs not currently in playoff position, meaning the Mets are in a much more comfortable spot than they would be if they were in the AL, where teams like the Royals and Guardians are sticking around the periphery of the Wild Card race with solid records. While the Reds (36-30 since the start of June) have looked good lately thanks to a fantastic rotation, their offense hasn’t looked especially threatening at any point in the year. Mets superstars Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor are both firing on all cylinders offensively in recent weeks, by contrast, and that could help stave off Cincinnati unless the Reds’ bats get going.

Even if the Reds stick around in the race long-term, it’s at least possible that another team in the NL playoff picture could start to struggle. The Cubs have scored the fewest runs in baseball since July 1 after starting the year as an offensive juggernaut. With pitchers like Cade Horton and Matthew Boyd reaching uncharted territory in terms of workload and a big series against Milwaukee this week, their currently stable position in the NL playoff picture could look much less secure in a hurry. The Phillies, meanwhile, lost Zack Wheeler for an uncertain amount of time over the weekend. While Aaron Nola returned from the shelf to replace him in the rotation, his first start back (six earned runs surrendered in 2 1/3 innings to the lowly Nationals) didn’t exactly inspire confidence.

How do MLBTR readers view the Mets’ hopes of making a second consecutive postseason appearance this year? Will they be able to hold on despite their recent struggles, or will the rest of the NL playoff field manage to push them out? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Can The Padres Hold Onto The NL West?

By | at

It’s been a big week for baseball in California. After the Padres swept the Giants and the Angels swept the Dodgers, a new leader stood atop the NL West. The Padres had claimed sole possession of first, while the Dodgers slipped into second, one game back of San Diego. The playoff odds will tell you that the Dodgers remain the favorites, but they’re losing momentum. According to FanGraphs, the Dodgers had an 83.8% chance to win their division on Opening Day, while the Padres’ odds were a mere 3.8%. As recently as three weeks ago, L.A.’s odds reached 96.6%, while San Diego’s sat at 1.5%. Yet, the Padres have since won 14 of their last 18 games, while the Dodgers are 8-10 in the same span. Accordingly, FanGraphs now has L.A.’s odds just below two-thirds (63.8%) and San Diego’s just above one-third (36.1%). You can think of it this way: These odds mean the Padres are now about as likely to win the NL West as the White Sox (.364 winning percentage) are to win on any given day. It’s still not likely, but it’s more than possible. The White Sox, as bad as they are, have still won 44 games.

This big week of California baseball will continue into the weekend, as the Dodgers host the Padres for a three-game set at Chavez Ravine. With a series win, the Dodgers would secure the season series tiebreaker, which could prove critical in a close division race. A sweep would give them sole possession of first place once again. Conversely, for the Padres, a series win would keep their chances of winning the tiebreaker alive, while a sweep would give them a four-game cushion over their rivals. With a four-game lead, the Padres would control their own destiny for the 38 games remaining in the regular season; they only have three more against the Dodgers after this weekend.

The Dodgers are lined up to send Clayton Kershaw, Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow to the mound. While the team continues to be plagued by injuries – most recently to Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, Hyeseong Kim, Tommy Edman, and Brock Stewart – the starting rotation is much stronger with Kershaw, Snell, and Glasnow, as well as Emmet Sheehan and Shohei Ohtani, all healthy at the same time, alongside 2025 All-Star Yoshinobu Yamamoto. While the Dodgers have seen their playoff odds plummet over the past three weeks, their starting rotation leads the majors in strikeout rate and SIERA in that time. They also rank second in groundball rate and xERA and third in fWAR. All this to say, the Dodgers’ starters, should they stay healthy, will be a strength for this team down the stretch.

As for the Padres, their pitching plans for the weekend became more complicated when Michael King was scratched with knee inflammation, heading back to the IL after only one start. He had just returned from a thoracic nerve issue that kept him out for more than two months. San Diego’s rotation, now more than ever, has a lot of question marks behind Dylan Cease and Nick Pivetta. Yu Darvish has been inconsistent since he made his season debut in July; the former ace is almost 39, and he’s missed a lot of time with injuries in the past few years. Deadline acquisition Nestor Cortes has only made two starts since returning from a four-month IL stint, and he’s yet to make it out of the fifth inning. It’s hard to know what the Padres can expect from him as well. The recently recalled Randy Vásquez is a great backup plan for King – he’s a much more established sixth starter than most teams can boast – but his 5.98 xERA and 5.85 SIERA are huge red flags underlying his 3.93 ERA in 22 starts this season.

Thankfully for the Padres, they have the best bullpen in the league backing up their starting staff. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller bolstered a group that already included Robert Suarez, Adrian Morejon, Jason Adam, and Jeremiah Estrada with flamethrower Mason Miller in a blockbuster deadline trade. The Padres’ bullpen leads the majors with 37 wins, 40 saves, a 2.97 ERA, and 6.7 fWAR, and keep in mind, Miller has only been a part of it for a couple of weeks. As for the Dodgers, they might have a great bullpen if it weren’t missing Scott, Yates, Stewart, Evan Phillips, Michael Kopech, and Brusdar Graterol. It would be an exaggeration to call their arm barn a weakness, but one has to imagine that Dave Roberts is a lot less confident than Mike Shildt when it comes time to take his starter out of a game.

It should also be said that Miller and Cortes were far from Preller’s only trade deadline pickups. While Andrew Friedman and the Dodgers didn’t add much – Stewart and outfielder Alex Call were their biggest acquisitions – Preller may have won the deadline. At the very least, he won the deadline in the NL West, according to two-thirds of respondents in a recent MLBTR poll. At 5:01 PM CT on July 31, the newest Padres included Miller, Cortes, Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Laureano, JP Sears, Freddy Fermin, and Will Wagner. The Dodgers were still three games up on the Padres at that point, but the Padres were a whole new team, with a deeper bullpen, a stronger rotation, a better catcher, and a more powerful offense against righties and lefties alike. Equally important was their decision to hold onto all of their key contributors who had come up in pre-deadline trade rumors, including Cease and Suarez.

The Dodgers have the better odds, according to both FanGraphs and PECOTA. They also have the better run differential, the higher FanGraphs WAR, and the reputation as the team to beat. After all, they’re the reigning World Series champions. They’ve won the NL West 11 times in the past 12 seasons. Meanwhile, the Padres haven’t won the West in almost 20 years. They haven’t won a pennant since the ’90s. They’ve never won it all. Yet, they’re playing like the better team right now, and they have the one-game lead to prove it. The question is: Can they hold on?

Will the Padres finally usurp the Dodgers in the NL West? Will the Dodgers’ dynasty live on another year? Or could a dark horse in the division pull off a remarkable comeback? Have your say in the poll below!

Should Trevor Story Trigger His Opt-Out?

By | at

Shortstop Trevor Story can opt out of his deal with the Red Sox after this season. For much of his Boston tenure, that opt-out has been an afterthought. Lately, he has been on fire and made it seem like a legitimate possibility once again.

Rob Bradford of the Baseball Isn't Boring podcast asked Story about his upcoming decision. Story spoke of his love of playing in Boston, which sort of points against him opting out, but he also acknowledged that there's a "business side of it" as well.

Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription

BENEFITS
  • Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
  • Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
  • Remove ads and support our writers.
  • Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker

Poll: Who Had The Best Deadline In The AL East?

By | at

The trade deadline has come and gone. While trade season was slow to get started this year, when all was said and done, there were several dozen trades made in a flurry of movement over the final few days before the deadline arrived. The full impact of these trades won’t be known for years to come, but that doesn’t mean we can’t analyze the deals and decide whose haul looks the best right now. Starting last week, MLBTR began running a series of polls asking which club in each division had the best deadline. So far, the Phillies, Reds, Padres, Mariners, and Twins have each come out on top in their respective divisions. Today, we’ll be finishing the series with the AL East. Here’s a look at each of the five clubs, listed from best to worst record in 2025:

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays bolstered their bullpen, their offense, and their catching depth ahead of the trade deadline, but their biggest move was a high-risk, high-reward deal to upgrade the top of their rotation. Seranthony Domínguez and Louis Varland give manager John Schneider two more hard-throwing late-inning options, and while Domínguez is a rental, Varland is under team control through 2030. Ty France has played almost every day since he came over from the Twins alongside Varland, alternating between first base and DH. It’s been several years since he was much more than a league-average bat, but he’s hit well so far with Toronto. Former Padres prospect Brandon Valenzuela offers catching depth at Triple-A.

The crown jewel of general manager Ross Atkins’s deadline was 2020 AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber, who is nearing his return from the Tommy John surgery that’s kept him out since last April. The Blue Jays will hope he can be the ace they’ve been lacking all season. In a best-case scenario, the Jays acquired the pitcher who will start game one of their first playoff series as they try to break out of a long postseason losing streak. In a worst-case scenario, they gave up a promising pitching prospect (Khal Stephen) in exchange for a guy who won’t be able to pitch like he did before his injury. Bieber has a $16MM player option for 2026 with a $4MM buyout.

In exchange for Bieber, Domínguez, Varland, France, and Valenzuela, Toronto parted with young major leaguers Alan Roden and Will Wagner, as well as pitching prospects Stephen, Kendry Rojas, and Juaron Watts-Brown. That’s no small price to pay, but the Blue Jays are hoping they added enough to help them secure their first AL East title in a decade.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox made the biggest trade of the season in June, sending All-Star slugger Rafael Devers (and the nine years left on his contract) to the Giants in exchange for Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks, James Tibbs III, and Jose Bello. Yet, they were rather quiet ahead of the trade deadline. They reportedly expressed interest in a wide variety of players, including Jhoan Duran, Eugenio Suárez, Yandy Díaz, Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Bell, and Dalton Rushing, as well as front-line starters Dylan Cease, Mitch Keller, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Sandy Alcantara, and, until late on deadline day, Joe Ryan. However, all they ultimately added was a back-end starter, Dustin May, and a left-handed long reliever, Steven Matz. They did not pick up any bats. May has a 4.93 ERA and 4.31 SIERA in 20 games (19 starts) this year, including a poor first outing with Boston last week. Matz has pitched well in his first season as a full-time reliever, putting up a 3.22 ERA and 3.53 SIERA in 58 2/3 frames. He has yet to allow a run in three outings with the Sox. Both will be free agents at the end of the year.

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow’s seeming failure to add a more talented starting pitcher, the kind Boston would feel confident starting in a playoff series, looked all the worse after the news broke that Tanner Houck would undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the remainder of the season. That being said, the Red Sox have continued to play well since the deadline. They now hold the second Wild Card spot and boast the highest run differential in the American League. While they didn’t add much to help them make a playoff push, the flip side is that they didn’t have to give up much either. For instance, they held onto Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu, two players the Twins were reportedly seeking in exchange for Ryan – and two players who have been key contributors for the Red Sox all year.

New York Yankees

The Yankees were one of the league’s busiest buyers at the deadline, adding three notable bullpen arms and several complementary pieces for the lineup. All-Star closers David Bednar and Camilo Doval arrived in New York, alongside fellow righty Jake Bird, to join a bullpen that already featured Devin Williams and Luke Weaver. All three have had their struggles since they joined the team (as has Williams), but at its best, this Yankees bullpen still has the potential to be the best in the American League. Bednar is enjoying another dominant season after putting his poor 2024 behind him, and Doval, too, has bounced back from a disappointing 2024 campaign to post strong numbers in 2025. Bird was optioned to Triple-A after just three appearances for his new club, but he’s an experienced big league reliever with intriguing stuff. At worst, he’s a durable depth piece with options remaining, and at best, he’s a whole lot more. All three bullpen additions are under team control beyond this season: Bednar for one more year, Doval for two, and Bird for three.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. can only play one position at a time, and when that position became second base again, the Yankees needed a real solution at third. Ryan McMahon is that solution, and utility men José Caballero and Amed Rosario (when healthy) can help him out with a left-handed pitcher on the mound. GM Brian Cashman also brought righty-batting outfielder Austin Slater aboard to join Caballero and Rosario in balancing out a lefty-heavy lineup. Unfortunately for the Bombers, Rosario and Slater have both already hit the IL. Rosario is expected back from a minor shoulder sprain shortly, but Slater will be out for most of the regular season with a hamstring strain. Even so, the Yankees aren’t exactly missing Oswald Peraza, whom they flipped to the Angels; the former top prospect struggled badly for the past three years and desperately needed a change of scenery.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays started July with a top-10 record in MLB and sole possession of the first AL Wild Card spot. By deadline day, they had fallen below .500. Of course, it’s hard to say if that changed their deadline plans at all. As usual, the Rays did a bit of selling and a bit of buying. They dealt two key members of their starting rotation, Taj Bradley and Zack Littell, and two members of their regular starting lineup, utility man Caballero and catcher Danny Jansen. Yet, they also added a rental starter, Adrian Houser; two new catchers, Nick Fortes and Hunter Feduccia; and two relievers, Griffin Jax and Bryan Baker. Jax and Houser were two of the more sought-after players on the market, Houser due to his cheap contract and surprisingly dominant numbers with the White Sox, and Jax because he’s one of the game’s best relievers under team control for several more years.

Also noteworthy are the players the Rays chose not to trade. A few days before the deadline, they were said to be open to trading Yandy Díaz and Brandon Lowe, but they ultimately held on to both veterans. The Rays also kept closer Pete Fairbanks. A week before the deadline, a report suggested they would “strongly prefer” to keep Fairbanks, but it’s not as if he wasn’t drawing interest. Lowe, Díaz, and Fairbanks are three of the tight-fisted Rays’ more expensive players. Fairbanks and Lowe only have one year of team control remaining after 2025, while Díaz is signed through 2026 with a club option for 2027. The team’s decision to keep them around seems to suggest they’re hoping to contend this year, even after parting with the likes of Bradley, Littell, Caballero, and Jansen.

Baltimore Orioles

They weren’t quite as active as the Twins, but the Orioles took advantage of a seller’s market to make the most of their disappointing situation. They traded 2025 All-Star Ryan O’Hearn, the surprisingly productive Ramon Laureano, long-tenured center fielder Cedric Mullins, utility infielder Ramon Urías, veteran starter Charlie Morton, and relievers Domínguez, Baker, Andrew Kittredge, and Gregory Soto. In exchange, they brought back Boston Bateman, Brandon Butterworth, Cobb Hightower, Victor Figueroa, Tyson Neighbors, and Tanner Smith (O’Hearn/Laureno); Raimon Gomez, Anthony Nunez and Chandler Marsh (Mullins); Twine Palmer (Urías); Micah Ashman (Morton); Juaron Watts-Brown (Domínguez); Wilfri De La Cruz (Kittredge); Wellington Aracena and Cameron Foster (Soto); and a 2025 Competitive Balance (Round A) draft selection, No. 37 overall (Baker).

According to MLB Pipeline, Bateman slots in as their No. 9 prospect, while Watts-Brown slots in at No. 13, De La Cruz at No. 24, Hightower at No. 26, and Aracena at No. 29. Only time will tell how well these trades work out for the Orioles, but it’s hard to deny they made the right call to sell when they did, and they succeeded in dealing almost all of their healthy impending free agents. Meanwhile, they didn’t part with any pieces that could contribute significantly in 2026 and beyond. Fans can hope that GM Mike Elias will use the money he saved and prospects he added at the deadline to improve the O’s roster over the offseason and bring winning baseball back to Baltimore next year.

Entering the season, many thought the AL East would be the most talented and competitive division in the league. It could very well still produce three playoff teams and four clubs above .500, but not many would have guessed the division would shake out quite like this, with the Blue Jays leading at the deadline and the Orioles selling off parts. There are still seven weeks left for the AL East to continue surprising us, and the moves each team made at the deadline could play a big part in all that. So, which of these five do you think had the best deadline? Have your say in the poll below:

2025-26 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: August Edition

By | at

While the collective baseball world — MLBTR included — eyes the final stages of the season and gears up for exciting postseason pushes, we’re also of course keeping an eye on the offseason to come. Performances both good and bad in 2025 will naturally impact the asking price of free agents this winter. We’ve done two iterations of our annual Free Agent Power Rankings series so far this year — one in April, one in late May — and it feels like a good opportunity to refresh the list once more.

As a reminder, our power rankings at MLB Trade Rumors are not a straight ranking of the best free agents in the upcoming class. There are plenty of older veterans who can make significant impact on short-term deals. Our rankings are based on total earning power, which means older vets like Paul Goldschmidt are rarely going to crack the top 10, regardless of how strong their performance is. Their age will simply limit them to a shorter-term pact that caps their earning power and leaves them with smaller guarantees than less-productive (but still quality) contributors who can more push for longer-term deals.

As we’ve seen with recent mega-deals for Juan Soto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., age is king when it comes to unlocking the richest deals MLB has to offer. The best way a player can position himself for a monster contract is to get to free agency at as young an age as possible — and, of course, do so while turning in excellent results at the plate or on the mound.

Onto the rankings!

1. Kyle Tucker, OF, Cubs

There’s no change up top. Tucker remains the cream of this year’s free agent crop. He’s not enjoying as much production, on a rate basis, as he did last year but has been healthier than last year. Tucker’s .271/.384/.474 slash is 41% better than league-average, per wRC+, and he’s just two homers shy of a fifth straight 20-homer season. He’s averaging 90.4 mph off the bat with a 42.4% hard-hit rate and has never posted an average exit velocity under 90 mph or a hard-hit rate under 41.9%. Tucker’s 23 steals in 2025 have him on pace to top his career-high 30. He’s only been caught twice. Given Tucker’s 26th-percentile sprint speed, that’s a testament to his baserunning acumen.

Tucker will play all of next season at age 29. He’s on track for a fifth straight season where he’s at least 30% better than average at the plate and a second straight year with more walks than strikeouts. This year’s 14.4% strikeout rate is the second-lowest of his career and sits lower than his 15.2% walk rate (the second-highest of his career).

Tucker is a quality defensive right fielder with above-average arm strength and plus accuracy. Teams with needs in either outfield corner will be interested in Tucker, and he’s the type of talent for whom a team would look to create roster space via the trade market. Tucker won’t approach Juan Soto or Shohei Ohtani territory, but he’ll have a case to top $400MM and could try to take aim at Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $500MM mark with a big enough finish to the regular season and/or postseason performance. He’ll receive and reject a qualifying offer, but that won’t be a deterrent of any note in his market.

2. Bo Bichette, SS, Blue Jays

Bichette has shaken off a pedestrian start to the season and, more importantly, made last year’s lack of production in an injury-ruined campaign feel like a distant memory. He’s hitting .300/.341/.468 in 508 plate appearances overall, but that jumps to a stout .306/.347/.508 when looking at his past 380 plate appearances. Bichette’s power was M.I.A. for the season’s first five weeks or so. All 15 of Bichette’s home runs this season have come since May 3. He’s been on an otherworldly tear of late, hitting .404/.449/.633 over the past month.

He’s still not walking much (5.3%), but Bichette’s 14.8% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career. He’s averaging 91 mph off the bat with a hearty 48.6% hard-hit rate. It’s still a swing-happy approach (hence the lack of walks), as evidenced by a 33.9% chase rate on balls of the plate. That’s about six percentage points higher than average but stands as the lowest mark of Bichette’s career. Even with those swings, however, Bichette’s contact rate is plus. That’s particularly true when Bichette zeroes in on balls over the plate; his 91.2% contact rate on balls in the strike zone ranks 19th in all of baseball.

Bichette has slowed down noticeably in recent seasons. He’s swiped just five bases this year, 20 short of his career-high 25 set back in 2021. It’s unlikely Bichette will ever return to those levels of thievery. His average sprint speed back in ’21 was 28 feet per second — faster than nearly four out of five big leaguers. This year, he’s averaging 26.2 ft/sec and sitting in just the 22nd percentile of MLB players, per Statcast.

Defense is going to be the biggest knock on Bichette in free agency. He’s never been a great defensive shortstop, and some teams will probably prefer him at second base from the jump. Both Defensive Runs Saved (-6) and Outs Above Average (-6) feel he’s been well below average with the glove this year.

Bichette can probably handle shortstop for another couple seasons, but it’s not likely that he’ll finish a long-term contract at the position. He’s not the same type of defender as well-compensated shortstops Willy Adames (seven years, $182MM), Dansby Swanson (seven years, $177MM), Javier Baez (six years, $140MM) and Trevor Story (six years, $140MM). However, he’s hitting the market earlier than any of those players did — ahead of his age-28 season. That extra year of his prime should allow Bichette, who’ll reject a qualifying offer, to land in the range of those other recent top-tier shortstops in free agency. If he sustains his absurd summer production (or anything close to it), he could push for $200MM or more.

3. Alex Bregman, 3B, Red Sox

Bregman isn’t technically a free agent yet, but barring some form of major injury in the final two months, he’s all but guaranteed to opt out of the remaining two years and $80MM on his contract. He’s not likely to secure another $40MM annual value — though you can argue that he didn’t truly get there anyhow, thanks to deferred money — but topping that remaining $80MM will be no problem.

This past offseason, Bregman spurned six-year offers from his incumbent Astros and the Tigers in order to take a short-term, opt-out laden deal that could get him back to the market after a strong year.

Mission accomplished.

He missed more than a month due to a quadriceps strain, but he’s shown minimal ill effects since returning. Bregman is hitting .295/.373/.533 in 295 plate appearances. He’s popped 15 home runs and picked up 20 doubles. The uncharacteristically low 6.9% walk rate he showed last year is back up over 9%, and his perennially low strikeout rate is sitting at 16.9%. His 18.8% chase rate on balls off the plate is eighth-lowest in MLB (min. 250 plate appearances), and his 86.8% contact rate ranks 22nd.

Bregman is a plus defensive third baseman who could certainly handle second base and could likely fill in at shortstop if needed. Front offices, coaching staffs and teammates all rave about his makeup, leadership and clubhouse impact. None of that is easily quantified, but there will unquestionably be teams who value him even more than his raw numbers suggest due to that intangible profile.

Bregman’s market was relatively limited last year as he came off a mixed bag of a season and contended with a qualifying offer. That won’t be the case this time around. The Red Sox will want him back, but the Tigers, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies and Mariners could all jump into the fray.

As MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows, the only position players in the past decade to secure contracts of five-plus years beginning at age 32 are Lorenzo Cain, DJ LeMahieu and Freddie Freeman. LeMahieu’s contract was stretched to six years for luxury tax purposes. Freeman got six years but with deferred money. Even on a five-year deal, Bregman would have a case for $150MM or more. Six years could very well be attainable, as could $200MM. Regardless, Bregman has a chance to top Freeman’s $162MM guarantee and take home the largest free agent deal we’ve ever seen for a player starting in his age-32 season.

4. Framber Valdez, LHP, Astros

Speaking of 32-year-olds in line for prominent paydays, Valdez has left little doubt that he’s the top arm in this year’s class. He’s on his way to what would be a third sub-3.00 ERA in four years, having piled up 140 innings of 2.83 ERA ball. Valdez’s 25.4% strikeout rate would be the highest of his career in a 162-game season, and his 7.9% walk rate is better than league average for a fourth straight year (and south of 8% for a third straight).

On top of the consistency and strong strikeout-to-walk numbers, Valdez is one of the sport’s top ground-ball pitchers. This year’s 60.9% mark trails only the Angels’ Jose Soriano for the MLB lead not just among qualified starters, but among the 225 pitchers who’ve tossed at least 10 innings as a starter. He’s sitting 94.4 mph with his sinker, down from his 95.3 mph peak but up from last year’s average of 94.1 mph.

Valdez gives up more hard contact than the average starter, but so much of it comes on the ground that it’s more easily mitigated. Since moving into the Astros’ rotation full-time, he’s never allowed more than 0.86 homers per nine innings in a given season — this despite being a lefty whose home park features a short left-field porch for righty bats who hold the platoon advantage against him. And, in an era of five-inning starters and teams who are reluctant to let starters turn a lineup over for a third time, Valdez is a throwback. He’s averaged 6 1/3 innings per start not just in 2025 but over his past five seasons combined.

Were it not for the fact that Valdez will turn 32 in November, he’d be the No. 2 free agent on this ranking and comfortably projected for a $200MM contract. As it stands, he’ll be angling to become just the fourth pitcher to secure even a five-year deal in free agency beginning with his age-32 season (Contract Tracker link). A four-year deal for Valdez would surely clock in well over $100MM, but he should be expected to land five years and will have a real chance to join Zack Greinke as the only 32-year-old starter in recent memory to reel in six years. A deal in the $150-180MM range shouldn’t be a surprise, even after he inevitably rejects a qualifying offer.

5. Cody Bellinger, OF/1B, Yankees

Through a series of one-year deals and opt-out opportunities, Bellinger keeps finding his way onto MLBTR’s Power Rankings. He was just off the early-season edition of this year’s rankings but has risen to the middle of the pack due to some down years from other free agents but, more importantly, a very strong all-around performance of his own.

Bellinger looked lost at the plate from 2021-22 while returning from shoulder surgery, but this is his third straight strong year with the bat. He entered play Wednesday slashing .276/.328/.496 with 20 homers and 10 steals. Bellinger has continually whittled away at his strikeout rate in recent years, to the point that he’s now one of the toughest strikeouts in the sport, sitting at just 12.9%. He doesn’t post the type of gaudy exit velocity numbers toward which today’s front offices gravitate, but he’s been a consistently above-average hitter for three years now despite a middling quality-of-contact profile.

The Yankees have used Bellinger across all three outfield positions and at first base. He’s graded out roughly average in center but is a plus in either outfield corner. Bellinger has only played 19 innings at first base this season, but he received strong grades when he played 431 innings there for the 2023 Cubs (+5 DRS, +1 OAA).

Bellinger holds a $25MM player option for the 2026 season. It comes with a $5MM buyout that he’ll receive if he declines. Even if it were a true $25MM decision rather than a net $20MM decision, Bellinger would easily turn the option down. He can’t receive a qualifying offer this time around, and despite how many straight offseasons he’s been a fixture on the free agent market, he’ll play the bulk of next season at just 30 years of age.

Bellinger would only be 35 at the completion of a five-year deal or 36 after a six-year pact. An annual salary north of $20MM for a 30-year-old corner outfielder who’s posted a .283/.337/.481 slash in nearly 1600 plate appearances since 2023 — particularly one who can capably handle center field or first base — should be attainable, which means Bellinger has a real chance to sign for more than $100MM on the open market this time around.

6. Dylan Cease, RHP, Padres

Cease hasn’t had the season he hoped in his final year of club control. He’s still showing the durability, plus velocity and swing-and-miss arsenal that make him so appealing, but the results haven’t been there for the former AL Cy Young runner-up. In 123 1/3 innings, he’s pitched to a 4.60 ERA that would stand as the highest of his career (excluding a partial season in his 2019 MLB debut).

That said, Cease’s 97.1 mph average four-seamer is his best since the shortened 2020 season and the second-best of his career. He’s generating more chases off the plate than ever before, and this year’s 15.9% swinging-strike rate is the largest of his career. Command issues plagued him for much of his time with the White Sox, but this is now two seasons with the Padres and two seasons with a walk rate comfortably south of 10%. He may “only” have average command (perhaps a slight bit below), but Cease is a durable flamethrower who misses bats with the best in the league. He’s punched out 30.6% of his opponents. Metrics like FIP (3.52) and SIERA (3.33) feel he’s as good as — if not better than — he’s ever been.

Cease is also incredibly durable. He’s never been on the major league injured list outside of a short stay on the Covid-related list in 2021. Since 2020, he leads Major League Baseball with 165 games started and is ninth with 897 2/3 innings pitched.

Cease will be 30 in December. A five-year deal would “only” run through his age-34 season. With a big season, he and agent Scott Boras could perhaps have pushed for a seven-year contract in excess of $200MM. This year’s uneven performance presents multiple paths he could pursue. Cease will receive a qualifying offer and is almost certain to reject. If he looks to max out, he could perhaps still secure a long-term deal but probably not for close to the money he’d hoped entering the year. We’ve seen Boras clients like Carlos Rodon and Blake Snell go the short-term/opt-out route in the past, and Cease is young enough that he could still command a notable long-term deal following the 2026 season if he went that route.

Still, these rankings are based on earning ceiling, and there’s a scenario where Cease finishes strong, looks to max out and winds up with six years and a hearty annual value. For power arms who can miss bats like this, teams are increasingly willing to look past a rocky ERA.

7. Ranger Suarez, LHP, Phillies

Though not as durable as Valdez has been, Suarez pitches deep into games and keeps runs off the board just like his fellow southpaw. He allowed five runs in a 6 1/3-inning start just this afternoon, one of his worst outings of the year, but still carries a 2.94 ERA in 107 frames. He averaged 5 1/3 innings per start back in 2022, jumped to about 5 2/3 innings per start in 2023-24 and is up to nearly 6 1/3 innings per appearance in 2025.

Suarez has been consistently good along the way, with roughly average strikeout rates, good command and well above-average grounder rates. In many ways, he’s a “lite” version of Valdez. He’s fanned 21.8% of opponents since 2022, issued walks at a 7.8% clip and turned in a 51.5% ground-ball rate. Back, hamstring and elbow injuries have limited his workload in that time, keeping him to 538 innings of regular season work.

The 2025 season has been Suarez’s best in terms of results. It’s also his second straight season with notable time missed due to a back injury, however. Suarez opened the season on the injured list due to lower back pain and wound up missing more than a month. His lower back also cost him a month in 2024 and two weeks in 2022. He’s an immensely talented pitcher, but three IL stints for his lower back in a span of four years isn’t ideal — especially since he’s had other injuries mixed in (most notably a 2023 elbow strain that cost him six-plus weeks).

Suarez doesn’t throw as hard as Valdez, sitting at a career-low 90.2 mph with his sinker this season. The declining velocity and recent troubles with back injuries are limiting factors, but Suarez is a steady No. 3 starter who’ll pitch nearly all of next season at age 30. There’s no reason he shouldn’t handily top Eduardo Rodriguez’s four-year, $80MM contract, and a five-year deal that pushes up closer to the Kevin Gausman/Robbie Ray territory of $110-115MM feels attainable.

8. Kyle Schwarber, OF/DH, Phillies

Schwarber is going to break plenty of precedent this offseason. He’s nominally an outfielder but has played 107 games at designated hitter this year. Maybe a team would plug Schwarber into left field early in a new contract, but a full-time move to DH probably isn’t too far down the road. Players with such minimal defensive value generally aren’t compensated well in free agency. Nelson Cruz and Victor Martinez got four-year deals as designated hitters … back in 2014. J.D. Martinez got five years and $110MM with the Red Sox back in 2018, but deal came with the expectation of at least some part-time outfield play. He logged 493 innings in year one of the deal and 330 in year two.

Players with negligible defensive value like this have a hard time finding big money in free agency, but Schwarber is going to be an exception. He’s not “just” a designated hitter — he’s one of the best hitters on the planet. He still strikes out more than you’d prefer (26.9% after three punchouts on Wednesday), but he’s also belted 40 homers in just 506 plate appearances — his third 40-homer effort in the past four years. (He hit “only” 38 bombs in 2024.) Schwarber has walked at a 14.8% clip as well, and he’s hitting .256/.376/.585 overall — a massive 63% better than average, by measure of wRC+.

Statcast ranks Schwarber in the 99th or 100th percentile in each of the following categories: bat speed, average exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, expected slugging percentage and expected wOBA.

Earlier in his career, the book on Schwarber was that lefties could get him out. That’s not the case anymore — far from it. Schwarber has been well above-average against lefties dating back to 2021, including a colossal .278/.394/.656 slash (186 wRC+) in left-on-left matchups this season. He’s a .242/.341/.468 hitter in his past 1059 plate appearances versus southpaws.

On top of the gaudy on-base numbers and nearly unmatched power output, Schwarber is a beloved clubhouse presence whose teammates and coaches rave about what he brings to the team off the field. He’s going to be 33 next March, and while some teams will want to keep him to a high-AAV three-year contract, the offensive contributions have reached a point where it’s hard to envision less than four years. A fifth year isn’t even completely out of the question, even though he’ll receive and reject a qualifying offer.

9. Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets

The 2025 season has been a rollercoaster, but at the end of the day Alonso is having one of the best seasons of his career. He’s hitting .264/.352/.507 with 25 homers already, making him all but a lock to yet again top 30 homers — a feat he’s reached in each 162-game season of his career. Alonso’s walk rate is holding steady around 10%, and he’s cut a couple percentage points off his strikeout rate, which sits at 22.9%.

That’s far higher than the 14.6% clip he showed in a superhuman month of April, but it’s still right in line with the league average. Alonso did a lot of the heavy lifting for his season in March/April, but he also had a huge performance in June and is out to a nice start in August. July was his only truly bad month of the year from an offensive production standpoint.

Alonso is making more hard contact than ever (52.8%) and sporting career-high marks in average exit velocity (93.7 mph) and barrel rate (20.4%). His defensive limitations are obvious, and he’s never going to contribute much value on the bases. At the same time, he’s as reliable a source of 30-plus homers as nearly anyone in the game. Since he received a qualifying offer last winter, he’s ineligible to receive another one.

The two-year, $54MM contract Alonso signed last winter paid him $30MM this season with a $24MM player option for the 2026 campaign. If he and the Mets don’t agree to a longer-term deal between now and the time that option decision comes due, he’s a lock to turn it down and head back to the market. Much has been made of Alonso rejecting a seven-year, $158MM extension from the Mets several years ago. He’s already pocketed $50.5MM in salary in two years since turning that down, however, and bringing home another $107.5MM over the next five years doesn’t at all feel out of the question. We saw a 34-year-old Christian Walker land three years and $60MM last winter. He’s a better defender, but Alonso will play 2026 at age 31. A four-year deal worth around $25MM annually or a five-year deal in the $22-23MM range seems plausible.

10. Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Brewers

A new entrant on the list, Woodruff recently returned from a more than yearlong absence due to 2023 shoulder surgery. His velocity is down noticeably, but his results are elite and largely commensurate with his outstanding big league track record. It’s only a sample of 28 1/3 innings so far, but the 32-year-old righty has a 2.22 ERA, a 35.6% strikeout rate and just a 3.8% walk rate.

In the five seasons preceding his shoulder injury, Woodruff pitched to a combined 2.93 ERA in just under 600 innings. His strikeout and walk rates were both excellent, though not to the extent in his five-start sample this year. Woodruff averaged 96.3 mph with his fastball during that time, compared to just 93.2 mph in 2025, but it’s not unreasonable to think he could continue adding velo as he shakes off some rust. Woodruff’s four-seamer averaged 94 mph in his most recent start against the Nationals, for instance — his best in any start of 2025.

A 32-year-old who had a recent, major surgery is going to be capped in terms of contract length, but that could result in a bit of a bidding war when it comes to annual value. Nathan Eovaldi just got three years and $75MM beginning with his age-35 campaign this past offseason. Woodruff will be two years younger this offseason than Eovaldi was last winter.

This all hinges on how Woodruff finishes out the year, but if he keeps gaining velocity and/or wraps up his return campaign with an ERA in the low-to-mid 2.00s, there will be plenty of teams interested in adding a premium arm on a deal on a relatively short-term deal (three or four years). Woodruff technically has a $20MM mutual option, but he’ll receive a $10MM buyout when he declines his end in search of a long-term deal in free agency. The Brewers can then make him a qualifying offer, which he’d decline if he can sustain anything close to his current pace.

Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Edwin Diaz (opt-out), Jack Flaherty (opt-out), Zac Gallen, Lucas Giolito (’26 club option becomes mutual option at 140 innings this year) Trent Grisham, Ryan Helsley, Michael King, Tyler Mahle, Munetaka Murakami (NPB), Cedric Mullins, Josh Naylor, Ryan O’Hearn, Eugenio Suarez, Robert Suarez (opt-out), Gleyber Torres, Luke Weaver

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top