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The Reds Could Have Starting Pitching To Trade This Offseason

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Not long ago, the Reds found themselves in possession of what looked to be a borderline surplus of infielders. Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Jonathan India, Noelvi Marte, Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand all had varying levels big league experience even before Cincinnati signed Jeimer Candelario to a three-year contract. A wide range of opinions on how to best divide the playing time persisted, but the Reds had the makings of a formidable collection of young bats.

Fast forward a few years, and none of that has really panned out. As MLBTR's Anthony Franco explored last month, that group has turned over a fair bit. Marte now patrols the outfield more than the infield. India is in Kansas City, traded last winter in exchange for right-hander Brady Singer. Candelario was released halfway through what has turned out to be a significant misstep of a signing. Encarnacion-Strand has been beset by injury. Steer has bounced all around the diamond, including in the outfield, but he's settled in more at first base. De La Cruz is entrenched at shortstop. McLain, who's struggled in the wake of 2024 shoulder surgery, remains an ongoing question mark. Top prospect Sal Stewart was recently promoted to the majors for his first look, giving them yet another high-upside infield piece to consider.

Even with that prior glut of infielders, the Reds felt compelled to trade for Ke'Bryan Hayes at this year's deadline and infielder/outfielder Gavin Lux last offseason. The overall offense in Cincinnati has been tepid, at best. The Reds, despite playing in perhaps the most homer-friendly park in the sport, rank 23rd in MLB with 146 home runs. They're 13th in runs scored, 16th in batting average and on-base percentage, and 21st in slugging percentage. The offense is ... fine. It's not a glaring deficiency, but it's also not going to turn any heads.

On the other side of the game, however, the Reds have enjoyed a more significant boom. Cincinnati's pitching staff is virtually teeming with enticing young options. Even with Nick Martinez and deadline pickup Zack Littell slated to become free agents, the Reds are deep in rotation arms. The aforementioned Singer is the priciest of the bunch heading into 2026, as he'll be due a raise on his $8.75MM salary, presumably pushing him past $12MM. The rest of the group is generally affordable, if not making at or very near the league minimum.

It's a fine line to walk, of course, as any "surplus" in baseball can dry out in a hurry, but this version of the Reds seems well positioned to flip some of that pitching talent in exchange for some offensive firepower when the offseason rolls around.

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Poll: Shota Imanaga’s Contract Option

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After being largely overshadowed by Yoshinobu Yamamoto when he was posted for MLB clubs during the 2023-24 offseason, southpaw Shota Imanaga landed with the Cubs on a deal that has worked out well for Chicago so far. Imanaga was an All-Star and the fifth-place finisher in NL Cy Young voting during his first season, and this year he’s chipped in a strong 3.21 ERA across his 22 starts. Chicago is squarely focused on October at the moment, with their first postseason berth since 2020 all but clinched. Once the postseason comes to an end and the offseason jumps to front of mind, however, the Cubs will face a significant decision regarding Imanaga because of the unusual nature of his contract.

Nominally, the contract is a four-year deal worth that guarantees the southpaw $53MM. That’s not quite how the contract actually works in practice. After the 2025 season, the Cubs face a decision on whether to pick up a three-year, $57MM club option that covers the 2026-28 seasons. If Chicago declines, Imanaga will have a $15MM player option for 2026. If that player option is executed, then there’s another fork in the road ahead. After 2026, the Cubs would have to decide on a two-year, $42MM club option for 2027-28. If they decline that, Imanaga can pick up a $15MM player option for 2027.

All of that is to say that the Cubs are facing a significant decision this offseason. If they don’t exercise their three-year option on Imanaga’s services, he’s all but certain to decline that player option and return to free agency. One-year rolls of the dice on older players like Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton last offseason cost $15MM, so it’s all but guaranteed that Imanaga could do better than that if he were to test free agency. The question then becomes if Chicago wants to keep Imanaga in the fold for the next three seasons for that aforementioned $57MM figure.

On the surface, that might appear to be an obvious choice. Imanaga is an All-Star with a career 3.04 ERA in the majors and is a big part of the Cubs’ success this year. A look at Imanaga’s underlying numbers paints a slightly less certain picture, and that’s especially true for this season. A hamstring injury cost Imanaga nearly two months, so he is not qualified for the ERA title. That said, among 92 starters with at least 120 innings, the lefty’s 4.55 FIP is tied with teammate Colin Rea for 65th. His 4.57 xFIP ranks 73rd, and 4.43 SIERA ranks 61st.

With Imanaga ranking in the bottom third of the league among starters this year by so many metrics, it’s worth at least looking under the hood to see what’s causing that downturn in peripherals. Only 15 starters in baseball (again, min. 120 innings) have a higher opponents’ barrel rate than Imanaga, and that’s left him very susceptible to the long ball. Just 14 starters in that group have allowed more home runs, despite Imanaga’s relatively small volume of innings. His ERA would be much higher without the fourth-highest strand rate in that set of starters.

Imanaga also has a .209 BABIP that’s the lowest among that same group by nearly 20 points and 55 points lower than his own figure last season. He’s benefited from some pretty significant luck when it comes to batted balls and sequencing. Imanaga’s four-seamer, sinker, and sweeper have all lost a tick of velocity relative to last year. He now sits just 90.8 mph on average with the heater, and while velocity isn’t necessarily a requirement to find success in the majors, the decrease is somewhat concerning when looking at his 20.2% strikeout rate — down from 25.1% last season.

Are those red flags concerning enough that the Cubs should really consider letting him walk? While much of Imanaga’s success at beating his peripherals this year can be chalked up to good fortune, consideration must also be made for Chicago’s excellent defense. The Cubs figure to have both Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field and Dansby Swanson at shortstop well past the end of the 2028 season, and with elite defensive talents working behind Imanaga it’s feasible that he could continue beating those peripheral numbers.

Another consideration is the possibility that Imanaga’s underlying numbers could improve next season with a normal start to the season. Between the Cubs’ trip to Japan for a two-game set against the Dodgers and the lefty’s early hamstring ailment, Imanaga had an unusual start to 2025. His strikeout rate has ticked back up to 23.1% clip since since the All-Star break, and he actually punched out 26.2% of his opponents in August, so maybe that trend line could create some optimism.

Regardless of whether more strikeouts and stronger peripherals can be expected for Imanaga, there’s an argument that three years and $57MM is a solid value for even a middle-of-the-road starter on the current market. Talented arms with All-Star track records can make a pretty penny on an annual basis, even entering their age-32 seasons, as Imanaga will be next year.

As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi and Sonny Gray all secured $75MM over three years for contracts beginning at age 32 or later. Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Bassitt landed $63MM guarantees over three-year terms heading into their age-34 seasons. The current $19MM AAV on the three years covered by that club option isn’t much larger than the $17.5MM AAV the Yankees paid a 33-year-old Marcus Stroman over two years and coming off a season with lesser results.

While Justin Steele will return from UCL surgery next year and Cade Horton has emerged as a long-term rotation piece, players like Matthew Boyd and Jameson Taillon are set to depart the Cubs rotation after 2026. Having another arm locked up for the long haul could have value for the Cubs so that they aren’t scrambling for innings going forward.

What do MLBTR readers think the Cubs should do about Imanaga’s contract option? Should they pick up that three years and $57MM for Imanaga’s age-32 through age-34 seasons, or should they bet that they can do better and give him the chance to walk? Have your say in the poll below:

Should The Cubs Exercise Their Three-Year, $57MM Option On Shota Imanaga?
Yes, lock Imanaga up for 2026-28 despite his shaky peripherals. 91.28% (1,424 votes)
No, decline the option and risk him walking in free agency. 8.72% (136 votes)
Total Votes: 1,560

Poll link, in case above is not working.

Poll: Who Will Round Out The AL Playoff Field?

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While most of the league’s postseason races are more or less wrapped up at this point, one highly competitive race remains: that for the final AL Wild Card spot. The Yankees and Red Sox have commanding leads for the first two spots that have pushed their playoff odds (per FanGraphs) to 99.7% and 97.4% respectively, but the rest of the field remains fairly open. Three clubs are within two games of the final spot. Who will make it to October among that group? A look at each of those teams:

Seattle Mariners (73-67)

The Mariners are currently in control of the final AL Wild Card spot. Cal Raleigh is in the midst of an MVP-caliber season behind the plate, and he’s been supported by Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena in the middle of the lineup. Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez were added at the trade deadline to help further bolster the offense. Suarez slumped for his first two-plus weeks back in Seattle but is back to form, hitting .265/.345/.592 over his past 14 games.

The rotation that was widely expected to be the club’s strength, however, has looked fairly pedestrian. Only Bryan Woo has stood out from the crowd as George Kirby, Luis Castillo, and Logan Gilbert have all been closer to average starters than ace-caliber arms. Bryce Miller was injured for much of the year and has struggled when healthy. Still, the bullpen remains elite, and the club is in solid position in the standings even after this week’s sweep at the hands of the Rays. They have an outside shot at winning the AL West, sitting 3.5 games out with a three-game set against the Astros later this month. They’ll need to fend off the Royals in Kansas City for three games as well.

Texas Rangers (72-69)

Sitting just 1.5 games back of the Mariners, Texas is in position to pounce if Seattle falters. A schedule that gives them six games against Houston as they sit five games back in the AL West leaves a small chance at capturing the division or perhaps pushing the Astros far enough down the standings that the Mariners claim the West while the Rangers take the Wild Card for themselves.

Even with the advantage of controlling their own destiny, actually making good on that will be difficult for Texas. Key players like Nathan Eovaldi, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Tyler Mahle and Evan Carter are all on the injured list. Wyatt Langford will be leaned on heavily to help carry the offense. A resurgent Jacob deGrom and deadline acquisition Merrill Kelly are still on hand to lead the rotation, and former No. 2 pick Jack Leiter has been excellent over his past 12 starts (2.89 ERA, 28.2 K%). Will the remaining pieces of the team be enough to push them into the playoffs?

Kansas City Royals (71-69)

Like the Rangers, the Royals have managed to hang around the Wild Card race despite significant injuries. Kris Bubic and Cole Ragans have missed much of the year, and Seth Lugo has now joined them on the shelf. That leaves Michael Wacha and rookie Noah Cameron as the team’s most likely starters for the Wild Card series if they can make it into the postseason.

The good news is that the addition of Mike Yastrzemski has been a game-changer for the lineup. He’s belted seven homers in 107 plate appearances and batted .242/.327/.560 overall in Kansas City, joining Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia, and Bobby Witt Jr. to form an impressive top four. Carlos Estevez and Lucas Erceg are a quality duo at the back-end of the bullpen, and three home games against the Mariners give them plenty of control over their fate.

Tampa Bay Rays (71-69)

Baseball’s hottest team has won seven games in a row, including a sweep of the Mariners in Seattle and a Thursday victory over the Guardians that pushed Cleveland 3.5 games out in the Wild Card chase. Junior Caminero is the envy of the league at third base, Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe are as impressive as ever in the middle of the lineup, and Drew Rasmussen (2.66 ERA over his past 10 starts) looks capable of going head-to-head with just about any pitcher as a Game One starter. Thirteen games against the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Cubs over the course of the rest of the season leave the Rays with plenty of adversity, but perhaps their young talent can stay hot and push them to October.

Which of these teams will come out on top and join the Blue Jays, Tigers, Yankees, Red Sox, and Astros in the postseason? Will the Mariners be able to hold on? Will the Royals or Rangers overcome their injury woes to force their way in? Or can the Rays stay hot through the end of the year? Have your say in the poll below:

Which Team Will Make The Postseason?
Seattle Mariners 58.73% (2,190 votes)
Tampa Bay Rays 14.86% (554 votes)
Texas Rangers 14.62% (545 votes)
Kansas City Royals 11.80% (440 votes)
Total Votes: 3,729

Is Jordan Walker Still A Core Player In St. Louis?

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The Cardinals have maintained this season is primarily about evaluating young players. It felt like a potential make-or-break year for Jordan Walker, in particular. Walker was viewed as an impact bat when he was a prospect. He impressed with a .276/.342/.445 showing with 16 homers as a 21-year-old rookie.

That promising debut feels like an increasingly distant memory. Walker regressed to a .201/.253/.366 line in 51 major league games last year. He spent a good portion of the season in Triple-A, where he was an average hitter. The Cards maintained that Walker would play every day in the majors this year. That’d give them more clarity on whether he projects as a core piece as John Mozeliak turns over baseball operations to Chaim Bloom going into 2026.

The audition has not gone well. Walker has battled a couple health issues. He missed a few weeks in early June with wrist inflammation, then lost around three weeks in the middle of the summer to appendicitis. He has been unproductive when healthy. Walker has managed just five home runs across 331 plate appearances. He’s batting .218/.272/.309 while striking out at a career-high 31.7% clip.

There are 249 hitters who have taken at least 300 trips to the plate. Walker is among the bottom ten in both on-base percentage and slugging. Most of the players with similarly poor numbers at least have defensive value to fall back upon. Walker is already in a corner outfield spot and grades as a well below-average right fielder. He hasn’t shown any sustained signs of figuring things out offensively. Walker carries a .229/.279/.328 line with poor strikeout and walk numbers in 37 games since his second injured list stint.

The Cardinals have continued playing him regularly, as they said they would coming into the season. That probably won’t carry into 2026 if Walker doesn’t make significant improvements. Hitting coach Brant Brown and manager Oli Marmol each had a blunt assessment of the 23-year-old on Tuesday.

“At some point in time, he’s going to have to devote more focus on preparation,” Brown told Bernie Miklasz of KMOX when asked what it’ll take for Walker to be more consistent (around 10:30 mark). “We’ve had long conversations with this. It’s not only looking at film on the (opposing) starter but also being able to come in on the first day of a series and taking a look at all the bullpen guys. All the information and video is available. Just so we’re not getting snuck up on when a guy comes in.” Brown then spoke more generally about the offense and suggested some hitters have had a tendency to press, especially when they’re going through slumps, and become overly focused on targeting specific pitches.

After Brown’s comments, Marmol spoke with Derrick Goold of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “I need to see Jordan have a sense of urgency for the things that need to take place in order to give him consistent results,” the skipper said in response to a question about the team’s short-term hope. “That goes with his move toward the ball, his preparation in the cage but also his approach in a game. … You have to start to see progress. It think it’s important as you are evaluating the next month, you need to start to see progress and consistency.”

Walker addressed Marmol’s comments yesterday. He said he “(doesn’t) quite understand the urgency part” of the manager’s statement (link via Jeff Jones of The Belleville News-Democrat). Walker pointed to his best stretch of the season, when he hit .304 with a .373 on-base percentage in the first two weeks out of the All-Star Break. He said he felt comfortable with his approach during that run and was working with Brown to get back to that feel.

The coaches maintained they believe Walker can have a bright future. “There’s a combination of talent but also I do feel there’s going to be buy-in. There’s a level of aptitude there that’ll allow for it,” Marmol told KMOX. “He’s young. … Walker did have a little bit of success when he first came up here. Once they know how to pitch you, they just double down on that until you prove that you can combat it. He hasn’t shown the ability to do that yet.

There’s enough talent there that I’m nowhere close to giving up on Jordan Walker,” Marmol continued. “There are adjustments to be made. There’s a commitment to the pregame work that can get to a better level, and Brownie spoke to that earlier. … I feel like he has an opportunity to make these adjustments and be the type of player that we were hoping for when he first got up here.”

That may well be the case, but the Cardinals will be hard-pressed to commit to Walker as an everyday player if they more seriously hope to compete for a playoff spot in 2026. Bloom was not part of the front office when Walker was drafted or developed into a top prospect. It’s not clear how bullish he is on the player.

Walker still has a minor league option remaining, so the Cards could send him back to Triple-A Memphis next season. That’d buy them another development season but runs the risk of completely tanking his trade value if he doesn’t improve. There’d surely be teams willing to take a flier on Walker this offseason if the Cardinals wanted to move on in a sell-low trade. They’ll face a similar question on third baseman/second baseman Nolan Gorman, who has been better than Walker but a league average hitter overall.

St. Louis also has an increasingly crowded corner outfield. Lars Nootbaar remains a solid everyday left fielder. Alec Burleson, who is currently sidelined by a wrist issue, has a career-best .286/.337/.451 slash. Brown raved about Burleson’s improved approach. Iván Herrera has been one of the team’s top hitters. The Cardinals haven’t played him at catcher in two months, pushing him mostly to designated hitter with occasional left field work. That probably points to Walker beginning next season in Triple-A (if everyone’s healthy out of camp) unless the Cardinals trade someone over the offseason.

Image courtesy of Jeff Curry, Imagn Images.

Poll: Will Anything Shake Up The NL Playoff Picture?

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The playoff race in the American League figures to be a photo finish, with the AL East and AL West division titles both still up for grabs and four teams not currently in a postseason spot still within three games of the final AL Wild Card spot. By contrast, the National League looks very stable. Two of the league’s three division leaders have a lead of more than five games, and zero teams not already in the playoff picture are within three games of the final NL Wild Card spot. With just over 20 games left to play for every team, does that mean the NL playoff teams are set in stone? Let’s take a look at the state of the race:

The one place where the NL is within three games of a meaningful shift is the NL West, where the Dodgers hold a 2.5 game lead over the Padres. That division has been something of a dogfight for the whole second half. While the Dodgers were nine games up on their competition just two months ago, strong play from the Padres in conjunction with an aggressive trade deadline that saw the club bring in Mason Miller, Ramon Laureano, and Ryan O’Hearn (among others) was enough to push them back into contention. They even claimed sole possession of first place in the division twice during the month of August, though both of those stays at the top of the mountain were short-lived.

While it wasn’t long ago that the Padres were right there with the Dodgers in the NL West race, it’s becoming difficult to see them overtaking their rivals. A 7-12 record since Los Angeles kicked off a three-game sweep of San Diego on August 15 has left the Padres flailing, and while the Dodgers have gone just 7-8 since that series concluded, there are no regular season contests remaining between the two clubs during which the Padres can make up significant ground. If there’s one thing going for San Diego in this race, it’s the strength of the club’s schedule. Ten games left against the Rockies and White Sox should leave a huge number of winnable games for the Padres to capitalize on, while L.A. is faced with seven games against the surging Giants and a three-game set with the Phillies before wrapping the regular season in Seattle.

Speaking of the Giants, they’ve sneakily gone 9-1 in their last ten games and have won each of their last four series. With 7.5 games separating them and the Dodgers, they’d need to do exceptionally well in those final two series against Los Angeles to have any sort of shot at forcing their way back into the conversation for the division title. San Francisco’s surge could realistically put them into the NL Wild Card conversation if things continue trending in the right direction, however. Aside from those aforementioned seven games against the Dodgers, the Giants face sub-.500 teams in their other 15 games remaining on the schedule.

That could be a soft enough schedule to provide some intrigue headed into the season’s final weeks, though the 71-70 Giants certainly have their work cut out for them. The Reds sit one game back of them with a 70-70 record, but arguably have more control over their own destiny than San Francisco does thanks to back-to-back series against the Mets and Padres over the course of the next week. Winning both of those series would more seriously put Cincinnati in the conversation for a playoff berth, but that could prove to be a tall order. The Cardinals and Diamondbacks are both lurking around the periphery of the race as well, but with identical 70-71 records and exceptionally tough schedules this September, it’s tough to see either club mounting a comeback.

As for the other two divisions, the Phillies and Brewers more or less appear to have their divisions wrapped up at this point with 5.5- and 6.0-game leads, respectively. Perhaps the Phillies dropping their four-game set against the Mets in Philadelphia next week could reintroduce some intrigue into that race, but with the Cubs/Brewers season wrapped up and a soft September schedule in Milwaukee it would take a shocking collapse for the Brew Crew to fall out of the top spot in the NL Central.

What do MLBTR readers think about the state of the NL playoff race? Will any of the division titles change hands by the time the regular season comes to a close? Will a team like the Giants or Reds manage to worm their way into a postseason spot? Or will the playoff picture look more or less identical to today when the season comes to a close? Have your say in the polls below:

Will Any Of The Division Leaders In The NL Change By The End Of The Regular Season?
No 67.73% (1,448 votes)
Yes 32.27% (690 votes)
Total Votes: 2,138
How Will The NL Wild Card Race Shake Out?
The teams currently in playoff position will hold onto their spots. 64.08% (1,577 votes)
The Giants will make the playoffs. 20.07% (494 votes)
The Reds will make the playoffs. 10.12% (249 votes)
Another team will make the playoffs. 5.73% (141 votes)
Total Votes: 2,461

Trevor Rogers’ Reemergence

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At the 2024 trade deadline, the Orioles traded upper minors hitters Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby to the Marlins for reclamation starter Trevor Rogers. Many perceived it as an overpay, and the deal immediately went south. Rogers, who was carrying a 4.53 ERA for Miami, allowed 16 runs in 19 innings over his first four starts with the Orioles. Baltimore optioned him to Triple-A within three weeks and he was a non-factor for a postseason bound club.

This season didn't start out any better. Rogers began the year on the injured list with a right knee subluxation. Baltimore optioned him back to Triple-A when he was healthy. Outside of one strong spot start on May 24, the 6'5" lefty wasn't on the radar into the middle of June. Baltimore's big league rotation -- which was without Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish and Zach Eflin -- pitched so poorly that their season was more or less finished by the time they recalled Rogers on June 18.

Stowers added insult to injury by carrying Miami's lineup with a pair of power barrages in April and July. He's streaky but now looks like the Marlins' best position player. Even if Norby doesn't work out, Miami is thrilled with their end of the deal. As recently as the middle of June, it looked like a complete bust for Baltimore. It wasn't a lock they'd even tender Rogers a contract for his final season of arbitration.

Two months later, Rogers is the favorite to be on the Camden Yards mound for Opening Day 2026. He had a rocky first start after being recalled, giving up three runs without escaping the third inning against Tampa Bay. He has taken the ball 12 times since then and been the best pitcher in baseball.

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Poll: Can The Astros Hold On To Win The AL West?

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Fangraphs gives each current division leader at least a 60% chance of maintaining that lead through the end of the regular season, per their latest playoff odds. Not all of those chances are equal, however, and two division leaders are far less likely to hold onto their title than the rest.

One is the Blue Jays, who around 45% of MLBTR readers view as likely to hold onto the division as of yesterday’s poll. The other is the Astros, who took control of the division off the back of a dominant 19-7 month of June but since then have struggled to keep pace. They’re 26-29 since the start of July and 16-21 since July 24. Houston’s managed to fend off the Mariners and Rangers in the AL West until now, however, and actually has a larger lead (three games) over Seattle now than they did in mid-August, when they were briefly tied for the division lead at one point.

That rebound in recent weeks has helped them stay afloat, but there’s still cause for concern. What was once a dominant front two in the rotation has now dropped to one; while Hunter Brown is still excelling amid a campaign that’s likely to earn him legitimate consideration for the Cy Young award, Framber Valdez is struggling badly of late with an ERA north of 6.00 since the start of August. The bullpen took a major hit when Josh Hader was sidelined by a sprained shoulder, and the lineup simply isn’t scoring enough runs. The Astros are 29th in the majors since the start of August when it comes to runs scored, and 21st since the start of July. Cam Smith hasn’t sustained his strong start to the year, Isaac Paredes and Jake Meyers are on the injured list, and Jeremy Pena is no longer hitting like a potential MVP candidate.

All of those flaws in the roster have left Houston vulnerable, and their +14 run differential is not just lower than those of the Mariners and Rangers, it’s the lowest of any team currently in playoff position. With six games against Texas and three more against Seattle still on the schedule for September, they’ll need to duke it out with those teams outright in order to hold onto the division. That provides an opportunity for those clubs to make up a lot of ground in a relatively short amount of time. And with the toughest strength of schedule remaining in the division, Houston can’t necessarily bank on cleaning up against weaker teams in their other games.

All of that may make it seem as though the Astros have their work cut out for them if they want to hold onto their lead in the AL West. While that could certainly be true, it’s not as if they don’t also have significant advantages working in their favor. For one thing, much of that rough injury luck has been balanced out by other players returning. Yordan Alvarez and Cristian Javier, in particular, figure to be impactful pieces for Houston down the stretch. And while players like Smith and Pena have cooled off to varying degrees, Jose Altuve and Christian Walker have turned back the clock in the second half after tough starts to the season. Carlos Correa is already hitting better now that he’s back in Houston than he had been in Minnesota, and perhaps a veteran core of Altuve, Walker, Correa, and Alvarez will be able to turn things around for the offense over the season’s final month.

The other thing working in Houston’s favor is the reality that Seattle and Texas aren’t exactly behemoths, either. While the Mariners lineup has put up respectable numbers led by Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, and Randy Arozarena, their vaunted starting rotation has looked much more vulnerable this season than in previous years. They’ll get help from a flimsy schedule that pits them against the likes of St. Louis, Colorado, and Atlanta over the season’s final weeks, but without George Kirby and Logan Gilbert posting better numbers than their league-average season figures, that might not be enough. As for the Rangers, injuries to Nathan Eovaldi, Marcus Semien, and Corey Seager have dismantled the team’s veteran core for the foreseeable future. The losses of Semien and Seager, in particular, are forcing them to rely on a far less reliable group of position players for the stretch run as they look to take advantage of their aforementioned six games against the Astros this month.

How do MLBTR readers view Houston’s odds of making it to October with the AL West crown in hand? Will their veteran core be able to score enough runs going forward, or will the Mariners or perhaps even the Rangers sneak in to take over? Have your say in the poll below:

Will the Astros win the AL West?
Yes 57.81% (1,951 votes)
No 42.19% (1,424 votes)
Total Votes: 3,375

Poll: Who Will Win The AL East?

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We’re into the final weeks of the season now, but a handful of postseason races are still up for grabs. Perhaps the most competitive division at this point is the AL East, which is the only division where three teams still have at least a 10% chance of taking home the crown according to Fangraphs. Who will ultimately emerge victorious? Here’s a look at each of the three teams, listed in order of their winning percentage entering play today:

Toronto Blue Jays (79-59)

The Jays took the lead in the division on July 3 and haven’t relinquished it since. It’s not hard to see why they’ve been successful. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. isn’t having the sort of superlative, MVP-level campaign he posted in 2024 but remains an anchor for the lineup with 21 homers, 30 doubles, and a .383 on-base percentage. George Springer has enjoyed a resurgent season at the age of 35, slashing an outstanding .300/.391/.533 in 116 games. Bo Bichette (130 wRC+) is back to his normal self after last year’s injury-ruined season. Alejandro Kirk (118 wRC+) is making good on his extension with the club by putting up his best season since 2022. Daulton Varsho has 16 homers in 49 games despite dealing with injuries, and even less-established hitters like Nathan Lukes, Addison Barger, and Davis Schneider have put up strong numbers at the dish.

While so much has gone right for the Jays on offense, it must be noted that things haven’t gone as well when it comes to pitching. Kevin Gausman looks like the steady and playoff-caliber veteran he’s been for years now, but the rest of the rotation comes with questions. Toronto was reaping the benefits of Max Scherzer turning back the clock for a few weeks, but the future Hall of Famer just delivered back-to-back clunkers against the Twins and Brewers. Eric Lauer was pitching well but was sent to the bullpen after posting a 5.30 ERA in August. Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios are stable veterans, but they fit better at the back of the rotation than starting Games 2 and 3 of a playoff series. The bullpen has struggled somewhat as well, with closer Jeff Hoffman scuffling to a 5.02 ERA on the season and a 5.32 ERA since the start of July. Those pitching woes have led the Jays’ lead in the division to slip from five games a week ago to 2.5 games. Will they be able to stop the bleeding and secure a division title?

New York Yankees (76-61)

Just a couple of weeks ago, the Bronx Bombers looked to be in a more dire position after losing five straight to the Marlins and Rangers before dropping three games in a row to the Red Sox. They rebounded from those losses to Boston by picking up the final game of that series, however, and that win started a seven-game streak that only just ended with a close loss to the White Sox over the weekend. While nice performances from players like Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. have been helpful for the Yanks this season, their success can be overwhelmingly attributed to Aaron Judge.

The reigning AL MVP has put together another season for the ages (196 wRC+), and it’s largely thanks to him that the club has been able to hang in the postseason race despite a disappointing season from Anthony Volpe and Paul Goldschmidt’s second-half struggles. Of course, Judge has been recovering from a flexor strain that’s seemingly impacted him at the plate and kept him from playing the field. That’s pushed Giancarlo Stanton’s strong bat out of the lineup on some days and forced his subpar glove into the outfield on the rest. A leaky bullpen hasn’t helped, though the starting rotation is looking better now that Max Fried appears to be getting back on track after a rough patch. One other thing working in New York’s favor is the schedule; they’ll face the last-place Orioles and White Sox in their final 10 games of the season.

Boston Red Sox (77-62)

The Red Sox have worked their way back from the malaise they faced towards the end of the Rafael Devers era to make themselves legitimate playoff contenders. Unlike the other two AL East clubs, it’s been the pitching leading the way. Garrett Crochet is in the conversation for best pitcher in baseball this year, and both Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito have looked the part of playoff starters. It’s arguably been a career year for veteran closer Aroldis Chapman, and Garrett Whitlock has excelled in a setup role. Top prospect Payton Tolle has been called up for the stretch.

While Boston’s pitching staff is impressive, they’re held back a bit by an offense that doesn’t quite measure up. Roman Anthony already looks like a star, but the rest of the lineup has lacked consistency. Alex Bregman is slumping since the start of August, Wilyer Abreu is on the injured list, and Ceddanne Rafaela has struggled badly since the All-Star break. Trevor Story started slow but has been great since June. Romy Gonzalez has tattooed lefties but been sub-par versus righties. Boston’s 24-17 record since the All-Star break is still encouraging though, and if Abreu comes back healthy and/or Bregman turns things around, the lineup would look more formidable.

Each of the three remaining contenders for the AL East title have one series against each other left in September. Who do MLBTR readers think will come out on top? Will the Blue Jays hold on despite their pitching woes? Can Judge lead the Yankees back to the top of the division? Or will the Red Sox offense turn things around to support their excellent pitching? Have your say in the poll below:

Who will win the AL East?
Toronto Blue Jays 45.76% (3,225 votes)
Boston Red Sox 28.28% (1,993 votes)
New York Yankees 25.95% (1,829 votes)
Total Votes: 7,047

Every Team’s September 1 Call-Ups

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As is the case each September 1, there’s been plenty of roster movement today. Active rosters expand from 26 to 28, allowing most teams to bring up one additional pitcher and position player apiece. A summation of every team’s call-ups from a busy Monday:

AL East

AL Central

AL West

NL East

NL Central

NL West

* Atlanta’s waiver claim of Ha-Seong Kim, while the most significant move of the day, isn’t counted here because Kim is currently on the 10-day injured list

Poll: Will Anyone Get To 60 Home Runs This Year?

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It’s been a great year for power hitters in MLB, as five different players slugged their 40th home run of the season before the end of August. It’s not often that so many hitters enter September with a realistic shot at the lofty threshold of 60 home runs in a season. It’s a feat that’s only been accomplished nine times, and the combination of Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire account for five of those nine 60-homer seasons. Of course, it’s an incredibly rare feat for a reason, and many promising campaigns fall short in the season’s final month. 12 seasons with between 56 and 59 home runs have been logged throughout MLB history, after all.

Will this year’s biggest power threats join that club of also-ran seasons, or will we see the tenth 60-homer season in MLB history come to fruition this year? Here’s a look at each of the top home run hitters from this season and their chances of reaching that illustrious 60-homer plateau, in order of their current home run totals for 2025:

Cal Raleigh

While everyone else on this list hit their 40th homer of the season in August, Raleigh’s 40th home run was actually slugged on July 26. The Mariners’ catcher has had a historic season this year, setting the all-time single season home run record for a catcher while sitting just four behind Mickey Mantle for the all-time single season record for home runs by a switch hitter. With 50 homers tallied so far this year, it’s hard not to see why Raleigh could have a very real shot at hitting 60 home runs this season. He’s hit at least ten homers in three of the season’s five months so far, and has never hit less than eight in a month this year. With that being said, it’s also worth noting that Raleigh has slowed down a bit in the second half of the season. In 40 games since the All-Star break, Raleigh has posted just a 112 wRC+ with 12 home runs. With just 25 games left to play on the Mariners’ schedule, he’ll need to pick up the pace if he’s going to reach 60 homers this year.

Kyle Schwarber

Schwarber is just one homer back of Raleigh in the race for the MLB home run lead after an incredible four-home run performance on August 28. Schwarber has long been one of the game’s premiere power threats and, like Raleigh, has hit at least 10 homers in three of this season’s five months so far. He’ll need to hit 11 in 25 September games in order to reach 60 homers, but one thing working in his favor is that he’s saved most of his power for the second half this year. He’s hit 12 home runs in both July and August, so if he can put up just one more month like the last two, he’ll get there. Of course, a player slugging .655 over his past 52 games also runs the risk of getting pitched around, which could damage Schwarber’s chances of making it to 60. One thing that could work in Schwarber’s favor is his home ballpark, as Statcast considers Citizens Bank Park to be the fifth-most homer friendly stadium in the majors this year.

Shohei Ohtani

With three MVP awards in the past four years, no one should put anything past baseball’s two-way superstar. Ohtani became the first player to go 50-50 last season, and with 54 homers tied with Mantle (and seven other seasons) at 22nd on the single-season home run leaderboard. With 45 home runs headed into September, he has an outside shot at not only breaking that personal record, but getting a coveted 60-homer season. 15 home runs in a single month is a tall order for any player, but Ohtani did exactly that back in May when he crushed 15 long balls in 27 games. The Dodgers have two fewer games than that in September, but Ohtani will benefit from playing his home games at Dodger Stadium, which is far and away the most homer-friendly ballpark in the majors this year per Statcast.

Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge hit his 43rd home run of the season yesterday, and that makes it a tall order for him to reach 60 homers this season. With that being said, onlookers around the game should know better than to doubt the hulking slugger’s offensive abilities at this point, with MVP wins in two of the last three seasons and a completely absurd 202 wRC+ since the start of the 2022 season. Judge is also, of course, the only active player who’s already a member of the 60 home run club after bashing 62 long balls to take the AL home run record from Roger Maris during his 2022 AL MVP campaign. Judge finished just short with 58 home runs last year, but perhaps this year will be different. In order to reach 60 on the season, Judge will need to make a different kind of history: as noted by Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com last year, the record for home runs hit in September (and October, in seasons where it hosts regular season games) belongs jointly to Albert Belle and Babe Ruth. Judge would need to at least tie that duo’s 17 homers in the final month of the year in order to crack 60 long balls this year.

What do MLBTR readers think? Will the league enjoy a 60-homer campaign for the second time in four years this season? And if so, who is most likely to pull it off? Have your say in the polls below:

Will there be a 60 homer season in 2025?
No 59.17% (2,782 votes)
Yes 40.83% (1,920 votes)
Total Votes: 4,702
If someone WERE to hit 60 home runs this year, who would it be?
Cal Raleigh 44.13% (2,001 votes)
Kyle Schwarber 42.52% (1,928 votes)
Aaron Judge 7.52% (341 votes)
Shohei Ohtani 5.82% (264 votes)
Total Votes: 4,534
Show all

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