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Previewing The 2025-26 Free Agent Class: Corner Outfield

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A number of teams (and their fanbases) have already turned their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking a look at the players who’ll be available at each position.

We’re moving to the outfield corners, where there are a couple of strong everyday guys but then a huge drop-off to the lower tiers. Ages listed are for the 2026 season.

Previous entries in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field

Top of the Class

Tucker isn’t going into free agency with the ideal amount of momentum. His 2024 season was truncated by a shin fracture. His 2025 campaign was dragged down by a finger fracture and a calf strain. He missed some time and didn’t perform up to expectations in the last few months before hitting the open market.

Regardless, he’s head and shoulders above everyone else listed here. Even with the recent hiccups, he’s been one of the best players in baseball for a few years now. Dating back to the start of 2020, he has a combined .276/.362/.513 batting line and 141 wRC+. He has stolen 113 bases in that time and generally been given strong grades for his defense. FanGraphs has credited him with 25.2 wins above replacement in that stretch, a mark that puts him behind only ten position players.

The injuries may create a bit of uncertainty but his record is otherwise very solid, well-rounded and consistent. For teams looking for a clear and immediate corner outfield upgrade, he’s the obvious choice. Big spenders like the Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Blue Jays, Angels, Rangers and Giants have outfield questions and could push the bidding up. Re-signing with the Cubs would be out of character for that club but they clearly love him, since they gave up a lot to get him a year ago. A dark-horse team like the Mariners, Orioles, Tigers or Rays could also be possible. He will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Cubs and will therefore be attached to the associated penalties, though that will be a small consideration for a player like this.

Everyday Regulars

It has already been reported that Bellinger will be opting out of his deal, which should come as no surprise. He’ll take a $5MM buyout instead of next year’s $25MM salary, leaving $20MM on the table. That’s an easy decision, as he should be able to top that handily. His previous trips to free agency haven’t yielded the desired long-term deal, but he should be in a better spot this time around. His dismal 2021 and 2022 seasons now seem like distant memories. That’s also true of his 2019 MVP form, but he has settled in as a solid everyday player.

With the Yankees this year, Bellinger hit 29 home runs. He only struck out 13.7% of the time, and he stole 13 bases. His defense was passable in center but above-average in the corners. He slashed .272/.334/.480 for a 125 wRC+. FanGraphs gave him 4.9 fWAR for the season.

There are some questions under the hood. The offense might not be totally sustainable. His batted ball metrics are relatively pedestrian, and he likely benefitted from the short porch at Yankee Stadium. All of this year’s homers were to the pull side. He slashed .302/.365/.544 at home but .241/.301/.414 on the road. He probably won’t be considered an everyday center fielder since he hasn’t done that since 2022. Still, he’s the best corner outfield option apart from Tucker, and there’s a big drop to the next tier. Bellinger won’t receive a QO because he’s already received one in his career and is therefore ineligible. He should get a strong multi-year deal.

After Tucker and Bellinger, there’s a clear drop. Guys like Trent Grisham, Cedric Mullins and Harrison Bader may get consideration for corner jobs but the center field market is also not strong, so they can probably find up-the-middle gigs.

That leaves Yaz as arguably the best solid regular after Tucker and Bellinger. He’s been a decent player for years now. He’s not a superstar but has generally been above-average at the plate and in the field. He’s had five straight seasons with a wRC+ between 99 and 111. He has produced between 3 and 9 Defensive Runs Saved in each of those seasons while Outs Above Average has had him a bit closer to par. FanGraphs has given him between 1.5 and 2.4 WAR in each of those five campaigns.

Despite that track record of reliably decent production, his earning power won’t be huge. A late bloomer, he didn’t break out until his age-28 season. He’s now reaching free agency for the first time just after his 35th birthday. He’ll probably be limited to one-year offers, but a two-year pact isn’t totally out of the question.

Platoon/Bounceback Bats

Andujar just wrapped up a good season between the Athletics and Reds. He slashed .318/.352/.470 for a 125 wRC+. Most of that damage came against southpaws. The righty bat slashed .290/.331/.429 for a 108 wRC+ against righties but .389/.409/.578 and a 171 wRC+ against lefties. His 2024 production was even more lopsided, with a 192 wRC+ with the platoon advantage and 82 without. In addition to the outfield corners, he also played first and third base this year, so he should find a home somewhere as a lefty masher with some defensive versatility.

Last winter, the Dodgers gave Conforto $17MM on a one-year deal, but it didn’t work out. He hit .199/.305/.333 and was left off the club’s playoff roster. The track record is still decent enough that he could find some club willing to take a bounceback flier. He oddly had reverse splits in 2025, but his career splits are traditional. The lefty swinger has a .249/.351/.460 line and 121 wRC+ against righties in his career and a .233/.318/.391 line and 98 wRC+ against southpaws.

Grichuk didn’t have a great campaign in 2025, hitting just .228/.273/.401. Even against lefties, he had a subpar .227/.273/.430 slash and 89 wRC+. However, he’s just one year removed from posting a .319/.386/.528 line and 152 wRC+ against southpaws. Even on the heels of that strong showing, he was only able to secure a $5MM guarantee to return to the Diamondbacks, so he should be even more affordable this time.

For his career, the righty-swinging Hays has a .282/.340/.479 line against lefties and .253/.301/.416 otherwise, leading to respective wRC+ tallies of 124 and 97. This year was even more extreme, with a .319/.400/.549 line and 155 wRC+ against southpaws and a .249/.286/.422 line and 88 wRC+ without the platoon advantage. Beyond the offense, Hays is considered a strong defender but has been fairly injury prone in the past two seasons.

Kepler signed a one-year, $10MM deal with the Phillies last offseason. He thought he was going to be an everyday player, but the Phils mostly shielded him from lefties. He was only sent up to face a southpaw 76 times this year and didn’t fare well. He also didn’t hit righties, turning in a .216/.305/.399 line and 93 wRC+. However, his career numbers are better, with a .240/.324/.446 line and 107 wRC+ with the platoon advantage. He’s solid with the glove, but his rough season at the plate should give him less earning power compared to a year ago.

Marte had a good season at the plate, slashing .270/.335/.410 for a 112 wRC+, but mostly as a designated hitter. The Mets only put him out on the grass for 65 innings. Given his age and injury history, he probably can’t be counted on for much more than that going forward.

Refsnyder is turning 35 in March but he just keeps hitting lefties. For his career, he has a .281/.383/.443 line and 129 wRC+ with the platoon advantage. In 2025, he was even better, putting up a .302/.399/.560 line and 159 wRC+ against southpaws. There was previously some suggestion he was flirting with retirement, but he plans to play in 2026.

Slater has generally been solid against lefties in his career, but his past two seasons have been rough. Overall, he hit .212/.299/.314 for a 77 wRC+ during the 2024 and 2025 seasons. That included some league-average production against southpaws in 2025, but injuries limited him to just 65 games on the year. His career .267/.357/.430 line and 119 wRC+ against lefties will get him some interest, but his recent struggles and injuries will tamp down his earning power.

Thomas is coming off an injury-marred season. He only appeared in 39 games. He underwent surgery to address his plantar fasciitis in September, a procedure that comes with a recovery timeline of three to four months. He’s not too far removed from a 28-homer season in 2023, but even at his best, he did most of his damage against lefties. He has a career .292/.359/.500 line and 135 wRC+ versus southpaws and a .220/.287/.383 line and 84 wRC+ when facing righties. In addition to his bat, he can steal bases and play a passable center field, but his health situation clouds his status somewhat.

Winker’s a good hitter but his health comes and goes. He only played 61 games in 2023 due to back problems. He bounced back in 2024, showing enough that the Mets gave him $7.5MM on a one-year deal for 2025. However, oblique and back issues limited him to just 26 contests this past year. His track record enough to get him interest, but he’s never been a good defender and the injuries keep pushing him more firmly towards full-time designated hitter status.

Depth Types

Options/Opt-Outs

Gurriel can opt out of his deal, walking away from the one year and $18MM guarantee he’s still owed. He won’t do it though. He suffered a torn right ACL in September. The surgery comes with a recovery timeline of nine to ten months, putting him out of action through at least the first half of 2026.

The Padres can retain Laureano for 2026 via a $6.5MM club option. That’s a bargain, considering he just hit .281/.342/.512 for a 138 wRC+ and was credited with three wins above replacement by FanGraphs. The Padres have ongoing financial issues but should pick up the option without much thought. Even if they don’t want to pay Laureano themselves, he’d have plenty of trade value (though it’s likely he’s their regular left fielder next year).

O’Neill can opt out of his deal, walking away from the two years and $33MM he is still owed. But injuries limited him to 54 games and a dismal .199/.292/.392 showing in 2025, so it would be silly of him to trigger that opt-out.

Photo courtesy of Rick Scuteri, Imagn Images

Poll: Who Will Win The World Series?

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This year’s World Series teams are officially set.  The Blue Jays managed to come back from 2-0 and 3-2 deficits in the ALCS to defeat the Mariners in Game 7 last night, thanks to a three-run homer from George Springer. Toronto is now poised to face the Dodgers after L.A. swept the Brewers out of the NLCS on the back of perhaps the greatest single-game performance of all time from Shohei Ohtani in Game 4. How do the Jays and Dodgers match up against each other?

It’s hard not to see the Dodgers as the titan in this series. They have MLB’s largest payroll and a roster littered with superstars. They’re gunning for their third championship in the past six seasons and have been to the Fall Classic five times in the past decade. On top of that, they’ve been utterly dominant this postseason with a combined 9-1 record against the Reds, Phillies, and Brewers. A rotation featuring Ohtani, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Tyler Glasnow is among the most frightening in the league and is firing on all cylinders at the moment.

Given that combination of postseason experience, October dominance, and an All-Star rotation, it might seem hard to imagine Toronto being able to put up much of a fight against Los Angeles. After all, this is just the Jays’ third trip to the World Series in team history, and they’ve had to battle every step of the way to get here. They won the AL East off of a tiebreaker, and went to four games against the Yankees in the ALDS before spending their entire series against the Mariners on the back foot. While Kevin Gausman is one of the more reliable veterans in the game and Trey Yesavage has been a standout as a rookie this October, a rotation featuring that duo, 41-year-old Max Scherzer, and Shane Bieber’s first handful of starts post-Tommy John surgery doesn’t exactly inspire the same sort of confidence as L.A.’s quartet.

While some of those concerns are certainly valid, the Jays have several factors working in their favor as well as they try to bring home their first championship since 1993. They’ll have homefield advantage due to winning 94 games in the regular season, while the Dodgers won “only” 93 games. Toronto also has a powerful offense that may give the Dodgers’ pitching staff all they can handle.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been baseball’s best hitter this postseason with an utterly absurd .442/.510/.930 slash line and six home runs over 51 playoff plate appearances.  Ohtani’s 143 wRC+ leads the Dodgers this postseason, but the Jays have four hitters ahead of him on the leaderboard: Guerrero, Ernie Clement, Springer, and Addison Barger. Springer in particular is a postseason standout who already has a World Series MVP award in his trophy case from the last time he faced the Dodgers in October.  While Los Angeles has more than its share of prominent bats, Freddie Freeman (105 wRC+) has actually been slightly cold this October, and regular season standout Will Smith (89 wRC+) hasn’t looked the same while playing through a hairline fracture in his hand.

Speaking of injuries, the Blue Jays have made their deep playoff run without the services of star shortstop Bo Bichette, who is expected back in the lineup for the World Series. After a tough 2024 season, Bichette enjoyed a return to form this year, hitting .311/.357/.483 in 139 games with 18 homers and 44 doubles. Smith’s lackluster performance only serves to underscore the fact that Bichette may not perform at quite that level if he’s less than 100% healthy, but even a diminished version of Bichette should be able to boost Toronto’s lineup.

While the Dodgers have a big advantage in the rotation and the Blue Jays certainly have the hotter lineup, the relief battle may be a draw. Both teams had below-average bullpens this year during the regular season even after signing star closers (Jeff Hoffman in Toronto, Tanner Scott in Los Angeles) to hefty deals this past winter.

Both clubs have also used former rotation pieces in the bullpen to great effect this postseason, with Chris Bassitt (2 2/3 scoreless innings) and Roki Sasaki (eight innings of one-run ball) helping to offer some form of stability on the back-end. Sasaki has even emerged as the Dodgers’ closer throughout the postseason, while Hoffman (7 1/3 innings of one-run ball) has turned things around after a tough second half to dominate in October with a 42.9% strikeout rate so far. Sasaki’s run prevention has been just as impressive, but he’s done so in less dominant fashion with a strikeout rate of just 20.7%.

Who do MLBTR readers think will hoist the Commissioner’s Trophy this year? Will the Dodgers repeat as so many predicted they would this spring, or will the Blue Jays be able to secure their first championship since 1993? Have your say in the poll below:

Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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The World Series looms and the offseason will begin around two weeks from now. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $22.025MM. Players who receive the QO have around two weeks to get an early feel for the market before deciding whether to accept. If they do, they cannot be traded without their consent until at least June 15 of the following season — as is the case for any MLB free agent who signs a major league deal.

If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

We’ll start with a look at the position players, with a preview of the pitchers to come later in the week. While there may be some close calls on the pitching side, there shouldn’t be a ton of intrigue with the hitting decisions. Many of this year’s top free agent hitters are ineligible for a qualifying offer, meaning there’ll probably only be four who receive it — each of whom would have a relatively easy decision to decline.

No-Doubters

There’s not much to say about this trio. They’ll all receive and reject a QO. Tucker could seek a contract north of $400MM, while Bichette should aim for $200MM+ despite a late-season knee sprain. Schwarber’s age and lack of defensive value will keep him below $200MM, but he’s going to easily beat $22MM per season on what should at least be a four-year contract.

Likely Recipient

Grisham is a safe bet to receive the qualifying offer as well, though that’s perhaps more of a 90-95% likelihood than the absolute locks of the top tier. It should be an easy call for him to decline on the heels of a 34-homer breakout that is supported by impressive batted ball metrics. Even with a dip in his typically strong defensive grades, Grisham has a shot at a four- of five-year deal going into his age-29 season. He’s the top center fielder in the class.

The only argument against the Yankees issuing the QO is that they’d receive the lowest compensation as a luxury tax payor: a pick after the fourth round. If they feel there’s even a 10% chance of Grisham accepting, maybe they’d rather not risk committing $22MM and an accompanying $24MM in luxury taxes within the first two weeks of the offseason. Still, one imagines they’d happily take Grisham back on the off chance that he were willing to accept a one-year guarantee.

Long Shots

Polanco has had a huge second season in Seattle. He hit 26 homers with a .265/.326/.495 slash across 524 regular season plate appearances. His .703 OPS in the postseason isn’t great overall, but he has drilled three more home runs (including two off Tarik Skubal in a Game 2 victory in the Division Series). It’s arguably the best offensive performance of his career after accounting for the difficulty of hitting at T-Mobile Park. All that said, it’s difficult to see the Mariners offering $22MM to a 32-year-old whose defensive home is in question because of knee injuries. There’s a strong chance Polanco would accept, as his age and durability issues should cap him at a three-year deal even if he’s not attached to draft compensation.

Torres was on track to receive a qualifying offer after hitting .281/.387/.425 in an All-Star first half. He subsequently hit .223/.320/.339 and underwent postseason sports hernia surgery. While the injury offers an explanation for the late-season drop in production, it’s likelier that Torres is who he is: an above-average but not great hitter who plays a mediocre second base. He finished his lone season in Detroit with a .256/.358/.387 line with 16 homers, similar numbers to those he posted (.257/.330/.378) during his walk year with the Yankees. That got him a $15MM free agent deal. It’s tough to see Detroit offering him an extra $7MM and potentially locking that money up by mid-November.

That’s essentially it for any hitters with an outside chance to receive a QO. The only other player who even received consideration in this tier is Luis Arraez. While he still has the game’s best contact skills and is a good bet to hit .300, there’s just not enough overall impact to justify a $22MM salary. Of the 32 first basemen who tallied 400+ plate appearances, Arraez ranked 19th in on-base percentage (.327) and 26th in slugging (.392).

Ineligible

Players who have previously received a qualifying offer in their careers cannot be tagged with a second one. That rules out Alonso, Bellinger, Bregman, Realmuto and Story (who seems unlikely to opt out anyway). Teams can only make the offer to players who spent the entire preceding season on their roster. Bader, Naylor, O’Hearn and Suárez were all traded at the deadline. The Braves claimed Kim off waivers from Tampa Bay in September.

2025-26 MLB Free Agents

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The following players project to become free agents for the 2025-26 offseason.  The player’s 2026 age is in parentheses.  The cutoff for this list is typically 50 plate appearances or 20 innings pitched in the Majors this year.

Updated 11-6-25

Catchers

Austin Barnes (36)
Victor Caratini (32)
Elias Diaz (35)
Mitch Garver (35)
Eric Haase (33)
Jose Herrera (29)
Danny Jansen (31)
Luke Maile (35)
James McCann (36)
Tom Murphy (35)
J.T. Realmuto (35)
Gary Sanchez (33)
Jacob Stallings (36)
Matt Thaiss (31)
Christian Vazquez (35)

First Basemen

Pete Alonso (31)
Luis Arraez (29)
Josh Bell (33)
Cody Bellinger (30)
Lewin Diaz (29)
Wilmer Flores (34)
Ty France (31)
Paul Goldschmidt (38)
Enrique Hernandez (34)
Rhys Hoskins (33)
Connor Joe (33)
Munetaka Murakami (26)
Josh Naylor (29)
Ryan O’Hearn (32)
Kazuma Okamoto (30)
Carlos Santana (40)
Dominic Smith (31)
Donovan Solano (38)
Rowdy Tellez (31)
Abraham Toro (29)
Justin Turner (41)
LaMonte Wade Jr. (32)

Second Basemen

Cavan Biggio (31)
Willi Castro (29)
Thairo Estrada (30)
Kyle Farmer (34)
Adam Frazier (34)
Jose Iglesias (36)
Dylan Moore (33)
Jorge Polanco (32)
Luis Rengifo (29)
Brendan Rodgers (29)
Miguel Rojas (37)
Amed Rosario (30)
Gleyber Torres (29)
Luis Urias (29)
Ildemaro Vargas (34)

Shortstops

Jacob Amaya (27)
Tim Anderson (33)
Orlando Arcia (31)
Bo Bichette (28)
Ha-Seong Kim (30)
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (31)
Jorge Mateo (31)
Kevin Newman (32)
Miguel Rojas (37)
Zack Short (31)

Third Basemen

Jon Berti (36)
Alex Bregman (32)
Willi Castro (29)
Paul DeJong (32)
Santiago Espinal (31)
Enrique Hernandez (34)
Yoan Moncada (31)
Munetaka Murakami (26)
Kazuma Okamoto (30)
Luis Rengifo (29)
Emmanuel Rivera (30)
Eugenio Suarez (34)
Abraham Toro (29)
Gio Urshela (34)

Left Fielders

Miguel Andujar (31)
Harrison Bader (32)
Cody Bellinger (30)
Mark Canha (37)
Willi Castro (29)
Michael Conforto (33)
Bryan De La Cruz (29)
Adam Frazier (34)
Austin Hays (30)
Sam Hilliard (32)
Connor Joe (33)
Jarred Kelenic (26)
Max Kepler (33)
Tommy Pham (38)
Rob Refsnyder (35)
Chris Taylor (35)
Alex Verdugo (30)
Jesse Winker (32)

Center Fielders

Harrison Bader (32)
Cody Bellinger (30)
Trent Grisham (29)
Garrett Hampson (31)
Cedric Mullins (31)
Lane Thomas (30)
Tyler Wade (31)

Right Fielders

Cody Bellinger (30)
Willi Castro (29)
Randal Grichuk (34)
Jason Heyward (36)
Travis Jankowski (35)
Max Kepler (33)
Starling Marte (37)
Ryan O’Hearn (32)
Joshua Palacios (30)
Hunter Renfroe (34)
Austin Slater (33)
Lane Thomas (30)
Kyle Tucker (29)
Mike Yastrzemski (35)

Designated Hitters

Miguel Andujar (31)
Josh Bell (33)
Victor Caratini (32)
Mitch Garver (35)
Rhys Hoskins (33)
Andrew McCutchen (39)
Ryan O’Hearn (32)
Marcell Ozuna (35)
Jorge Polanco (32)
Kyle Schwarber (33)
Justin Turner (41)
Jesse Winker (32)

Starting Pitchers

Tyler Anderson (36)
Chris Bassitt (37)
Paul Blackburn (32)
Walker Buehler (31)
Griffin Canning (30)
Carlos Carrasco (39)
Dylan Cease (30)
Aaron Civale (31)
Alex Cobb (38)
Patrick Corbin (36)
Nestor Cortes (31)
Nabil Crismatt (31)
Anthony DeSclafani (36)
Jon Duplantier (31)
Zach Eflin (32)
Erick Fedde (33)
Chris Flexen (31)
Zac Gallen (30)
Lucas Giolito (30)
Austin Gomber (32)
Jon Gray (34)
Foster Griffin (30)
Kyle Hart (33)
Andrew Heaney (35)
Kyle Hendricks (36)
Adrian Houser (33)
Shota Imanaga (32)
Andre Jackson (30)
Jakob Junis (33)
Anthony Kay (31)
Merrill Kelly (37)
Michael King (31)
Zack Littell (30)
Michael Lorenzen (34)
Kenta Maeda (38)
Tyler Mahle (31)
German Marquez (31)
Nick Martinez (35)
Steven Matz (35)
Dustin May (28)
Triston McKenzie (28)
John Means (33)
Miles Mikolas (37)
Wade Miley (39)
Frankie Montas (33)
Jordan Montgomery (33)
Chris Paddack (30)
Martin Perez (35)
Cody Ponce (32)
Cal Quantrill (31)
Jose Quintana (37)
Max Scherzer (41)
Michael Soroka (28)
Marcus Stroman (35)
Ranger Suarez (30)
Tomoyuki Sugano (36)
Kona Takahashi (29)
Jose Ureña (34)
Jose Urquidy (31)
Framber Valdez (32)
Justin Verlander (43)
Jake Woodford (29)
Brandon Woodruff (32)

Right-Handed Relievers

Shawn Armstrong (35)
Scott Barlow (33)
Scott Blewett (30)
Ryan Brasier (38)
John Brebbia (36)
Connor Brogdon (31)
Nabil Crismatt (31)
Chris Devenski (35)
Alexis Diaz (29)
Edwin Diaz (32)
Seranthony Dominguez (31)
Dane Dunning (31)
Pete Fairbanks (32)
Kyle Finnegan (34)
Chris Flexen (31)
Carson Fulmer (32)
Luis Garcia (39)
Kendall Graveman (35)
Chad Green (35)
Hunter Harvey (31)
Ryan Helsley (31)
Liam Hendriks (36)
Carlos Hernandez (29)
Raisel Iglesias (36)
Luke Jackson (32)
Kenley Jansen (38)
Pierce Johnson (35)
Jakob Junis (33)
Tommy Kahnle (36)
Brad Keller (30)
Tyler Kinley (35)
Michael Kopech (30)
Derek Law (35)
Jose Leclerc (32)
Jonathan Loaisiga (31)
Jorge Lopez (33)
Chris Martin (40)
Nick Martinez (35)
Phil Maton (33)
Shelby Miller (35)
Rafael Montero (35)
Hector Neris (37)
Adam Ottavino (40)
Emilio Pagan (35)
Ryan Pressly (37)
Tanner Rainey (33)
Erasmo Ramirez (36)
Tyler Rogers (35)
Jordan Romano (33)
Joe Ross (33)
Eduardo Salazar (28)
Tayler Scott (34)
Paul Sewald (36)
Lucas Sims (32)
Drew Smith (32)
Ryne Stanek (34)
Chris Stratton (35)
Hunter Strickland (37)
Robert Suarez (35)
Erik Swanson (32)
Lou Trivino (34)
Jose Ureña (34)
Luke Weaver (32)
Devin Williams (31)
Bryse Wilson (28)
Kirby Yates (39)

Left-Handed Relievers

Tyler Alexander (31)
Jalen Beeks (32)
Ryan Borucki (32)
Genesis Cabrera (29)
Andrew Chafin (36)
Danny Coulombe (36)
Caleb Ferguson (29)
Hoby Milner (35)
Sean Newcomb (33)
Cionel Perez (30)
Drew Pomeranz (37)
Taylor Rogers (35)
Gregory Soto (31)
Brent Suter (36)
Caleb Thielbar (39)
Justin Wilson (38)
Ryan Yarbrough (34)

Each Team’s Penalty For Signing A Qualifying Offer-Rejecting Free Agent

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Since we just looked at what teams would stand to receive in draft compensation if they lost a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer, now it’s time to explore what each team would have to give up in order to sign a QO-rejecting free agent.

To recap the mechanics: if a free agent has played the entire 2024 season with a team and he has never received a qualifying offer in the past, he is eligible to be issued a QO within five days of the end of the World Series.  The qualifying offer is a one-year deal worth the average of the salaries of the top 125 highest-paid players in the majors, and this winter, the QO is worth $22.025MM.  An eligible free agent can simply accept the QO and thus avoid free agency entirely, but if he rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive some draft-pick compensation if the free agent signs elsewhere.  This only relates to qualified free agents from other teams, as a club can re-sign its own qualified free agents with no penalty.

Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will have to give up if they sign qualified free agent.…

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays

Should one of these clubs sign a qualified free agent, they will have to give up their third-highest selection in the 2026 draft.  Since most of these smaller-market teams are part of the Competitive Balance bonus rounds of the draft, their third-highest pick likely won’t mean their third-round pick, and the situation could be further complicated if any of the teams trade from their CBR picks.  The Competitive Balance selections are the only draft picks eligible to be traded — for the 2025 draft, five total picks over the two CBR rounds were made by teams who acquired those selections in trades prior to draft day.

These lower-spending teams usually don’t splurge on bigger-name free agents in general, yet last offseason saw the Diamondbacks sign Corbin Burnes, and the Athletics (!) sign Luis Severino.  The Tigers also made a push to land Alex Bregman, and Detroit might feel more pressure about sealing the deal on a splashy move this winter since Tarik Skubal is only a year away from free agency.  The Orioles or Reds could be candidates to spend a little more than usual, with Cincinnati trying to build on a playoff appearance and Baltimore trying to bounce back from a disappointing 2025.  Seattle could also explore qualified free agents, but the M’s are more likely to first focus on trying to re-sign one of their own guys in Josh Naylor, who isn’t eligible for a QO.

Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Braves, Nationals, Angels, White Sox

For signing a qualified free agent, these teams would have to surrender their second-highest pick of the 2026 draft, and also $500K from their bonus pool during the next international signing period.

The rebuilding Cardinals and White Sox and won’t be spending big in free agency.  The same is very likely true of the Nationals, whose own rebuild period is likely to be extended since new president of baseball operations Paul Toboni will need time to evaluate (and overhaul) the organization.  Texas is planning to either stand pat on spending or reduce payroll.

Under Alex Anthopoulos, the Braves have generally been more inclined to build their roster through trades or their own farm system rather than long-term free agent deals, but Atlanta could change tactics after a losing season in 2025.  The Angels figure to be active in free agency, even if spending bigger on a qualified free agent might not necessarily be on the radar.  San Francisco signed qualified free agent Willy Adames last winter, and are again expected to at least check in many of the major free agent names.  There doesn’t appear to be much optimism that the Cubs will re-sign Kyle Tucker, but they could respond to a Tucker departure by making some other prominent signings.

Part of the equation for these clubs and the clubs in the next two categories could be what other picks they’re receiving this winter, to balance out their draft capital.  For instance, if Tucker rejects a QO and signs elsewhere, the Cubs would get a compensatory pick just before the start of the third round of the draft.  While a lower selection than whatever Chicago’s second-highest pick would be, getting another draft pick back and then losing a pick to sign a qualified free agent somewhat makes it a wash for the Cubs.

Teams In Limbo: Astros, Rangers, Red Sox

As noted in the last post, it won’t be known until December (when the luxury tax numbers are officially calculated by the league) whether or not the Astros managed to sneak under the $241MM tax threshold. RosterResource has Houston slightly under the threshold while Cot’s Baseball Contracts has the Astros slightly over the line.  Given this discrepancy and the narrow margins involved, we’ll keep the Astros in their own special grouping until the league issues the official Competitive Balance Tax numbers in December.

Since Houston were tax-payors in 2024, the Astros might have reset their CBT status if they were indeed able to stay under the $241MM line.  Being a two-time payor means an escalating tax rate, and that tax bill would keep escalating if the Astros again finished over the $244MM threshold in 2026.  Caveat: the collective bargaining agreement expires after the 2026 season, so the qualifying offer system or luxury tax system might very well be adjusted or even heavily changed in a new CBA, so a repeater-tax status might no longer be a concern to the Astros or other teams.

Staying under the 2025 tax line also means the Astros could be more willing to explore signing qualified free agents, though their tax-payor status last winter didn’t stop the team from signing Christian Walker.

As noted in the previous post, the Rangers could end up as tax-payors and the Red Sox may have ducked under the tax line, depending on the league’s final calculations. Boston seems the likelier of those two teams to sign a qualified free agent, as the Rangers are expected to reduce payroll this offseason.

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Padres, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Yankees, Blue Jays

As one would expect, these teams face the stiffest penalties.  For signing a QO-rejecting free agent, these clubs would have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as two draft picks — their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2026 draft.

All seven of these clubs are clearly in win-now mode, so the higher penalties shouldn’t be much of an obstacle towards a pursuit of qualified free agents in most cases.  (The Padres are the probable exception since they’re operating within a narrower payroll margin.)  Since every team would prefer to keep their draft picks if they can help it, the tax payors might target non-qualified free agents who aren’t tied to draft compensation.  For instance, while the Dodgers are expected to at least check in Tucker’s market, Los Angeles could consider any number of other free agents before aiming at the outfielder that will cost the most in both contract size and additional draft penalties.

Since re-signing your own QO-rejecting free agent comes with no penalty, this could make some of these clubs more inclined to retain their own impending free agents rather than seek out new talent. The Phillies have been public with their desire to keep Kyle Schwarber, and the Blue Jays will undoubtedly be keeping tabs on Bo Bichette.

Should a club sign more than one qualified free agent, they will have to additionally forfeit their next-highest draft pick. For signing two QO-rejecting free agents, the revenue-sharing group would have to give up their third- and fourth-highest picks in the 2026 draft. The teams who didn’t exceed the CBT or receive revenue-sharing funds would have to give up their second- and third-highest picks, as well as $500K more of their international bonus pool. The luxury tax payors would face the heftier penalty of losing four draft picks — their second, third, fifth, and sixth-highest selections.

Each Team’s Draft Compensation For Losing A Qualifying Offer-Rejecting Free Agent

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The qualifying offer is one of the key mechanisms of free agent season, as teams have until five days after the end of the World Series to decide whether or not to issue the one-year contract (this winter worth $22.025MM) to eligible free agents.  If a player has played with his team throughout the entire 2025 season and hasn’t received a QO in the past, he is eligible to be issued a qualifying offer, and thus the player can opt to accept the one-year pact and forego free agency altogether to stick with his club.

If the player rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive a draft pick if the free agent signs elsewhere.  Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will receive should one of their qualified free agents indeed head to another club….

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays

If any of these teams has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for more than $50MM in guaranteed money, the compensatory pick falls after the first round of next year’s draft.  (For instance, the Orioles received both the 30th and 31st overall picks in the 2025 draft since qualified free agents Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander each signed for more than $50MM with their new teams.)  If a team has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for less than $50MM guaranteed, the compensatory pick in the 2026 draft would come between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round, which is usually somewhere in range of the 70th-75th overall selection.

Looking at these teams’ members of the 2025-26 free agent class, the Diamondbacks’ Zac Gallen and the Brewers’ Brandon Woodruff are the only likely-to-reasonable qualifying offer candidates.  You could also make a case for the Tigers issuing Jack Flaherty a QO if he rejects his $20MM player option for 2026.  Notable impending free agents like Seattle’s Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez are examples of players who are ineligible for the QO because they only joined the Mariners partway through the season.

Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Braves, Nationals, Angels, White Sox

For these teams, their compensatory 2026 draft pick for losing a qualified free agent would also fall between CBR-B and the start of the third round (regardless of whether or not the player signed for at least $50MM).  The Red Sox were a member of this group in 2024 because they weren’t tax-payors, and thus Boston received the 75th overall pick of the 2025 draft as compensation when Nick Pivetta rejected a qualifying offer and subsequently signed with the Padres.

The chief name to watch here is Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker, who will probably command the largest deal of any player in the 2025-26 free agent class.  Chicago could also issue a QO to Shota Imanaga if he becomes a free agent, but that would first require the Cubs to decide on a series of club options and attached player options for Imanaga, so quite a few hoops have to be jumped through for Imanaga to actually hit the open market.

Teams In Limbo: Astros, Rangers, Red Sox

It is usually pretty obvious which teams are well over or well under the luxury tax threshold ($241MM in 2025), and sites like RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts do a great job of estimating the ebbs and flows of each team’s tax status over the course of a season or multiple seasons.  The league’s accounting office naturally has the full set of salary data from each team, and thus we won’t know each club’s official status until MLB releases their information in December.

For now, we’ll keep Houston in its own little category because its tax status isn’t entirely clear.  RosterResource has the Astros with an approximate tax number of $238.2MM that keeps them under the threshold, while Cot’s has Houston over the line with a $244MM tax number.  If the Astros have indeed exceeded the tax line for a second straight year, they’ll face the increased “second-time payor” surcharge of 30% on every dollar spent over $241MM, which works out to $900K if Cot’s $244MM projection is accurate.

While the actual tax bill of $900K is negligible, the more sizeable impact for the Astros would be in regards to impending free agent Framber Valdez.  The veteran southpaw will surely be issued a qualifying offer, so if he signs elsewhere, the Astros’ pick will sit before the start of the third round if it turns out that they stayed under the tax threshold.  If their tax number is indeed more than $244MM, Houston joins the next category of teams.

Two other teams merit consideration for the “limbo” zone.  Both Cot’s and RosterResource had Texas staying under the tax line, and both sites had the Red Sox over going the line, but those are unofficial estimates within a reasonable margin of error in either direction.  Since those projections were all within $5.5MM of the CBT threshold, however, that’s enough of a margin of error that the league’s final calculations might tell a different story.  Reporting from the Dallas Morning News’ Evan Grant and DLLS Sports’ Jeff Wilson at the trade deadline indicated that the Rangers exceeded the tax threshold.

The Rangers don’t have any free agents who should get consideration for a qualifying offer anyway. Merrill Kelly is ineligible after changing teams midseason, and no one else in their group of impending free agents warrants a salary in the $22MM range. Tyler Mahle might’ve been on that path, but he missed a few months midseason with a rotator cuff injury. Boston’s Lucas Giolito is a borderline QO case, plus his season-ending elbow issue may weigh into whatever decision the Red Sox make on the qualifying offer front.

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Padres, Yankees

If a team exceeds the luxury tax line, their compensatory pick falls after the fourth round of the 2026 draft.  As an example, the Braves were tax-payors in 2024, so they got the 136th overall pick in the 2025 draft when Max Fried rejected Atlanta’s qualifying offer and signed with the Yankees.

As it turns out, many of the most obvious qualifying-offer candidates of this winter’s free agent class happen to come from tax-paying teams.  The Phillies have Kyle Schwarber and Ranger Suarez, the Padres have Dylan Cease and Michael King, the Blue Jays have Bo Bichette, the Mets have Edwin Diaz (who is likely to opt out of his deal to re-enter the market), and Trent Grisham’s career year with the Yankees makes him a likely QO candidate.

Willson Contreras’ Move To First Base Was A Success

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It was less than a year ago that the Cardinals made the decision to move three-time All-Star Willson Contreras to first base after the veteran slugger indicated he wasn’t interested in waiving his no-trade clause to leave St. Louis ahead of their impending rebuild. That decision was intended to open up the catcher position so that younger players more tied to the future of the franchise, like Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages, could get reps at the position and prove themselves capable as regulars in the majors.

Getting opportunities for those young players was a sensible goal, but it didn’t come without risk. Replacing Paul Goldschmidt at first base would be a big ask for any player, and while Contreras has long been a talented hitter he’s not always been able to produce enough offensively to justify a role as an everyday first baseman. Contreras also had just 11 appearances (three starts) on his resume at the position prior to 2025, the most recent of which had come all the way back in 2019, so learning a new position would place additional challenges on the veteran as he headed into his age-33 season.

At first, the experiment looked like it was poised to be a failure. Contreras came out of the gate ice cold in 2025, with a .145/.198/.237 slash line in his first 82 trips to the plate that was difficult to stomach from a first baseman. A month into the season, more than 65% of respondents to an MLBTR poll regarding Contreras’s future suggested that he would be either a league average hitter or worse in 2025, while just 34% of respondents believed Contreras would be able to rebound to his typical numbers. Fortunately for St. Louis, Contreras managed to overcome expectations and do just that. Flash forward to the end of the season, and Contreras is now coming off a solid .257/.344/.447 campaign. His 124 wRC+ this year is right in line with his career mark of 122 and only slightly below the 129 he’s posted to this point in his Cardinals career.

While that rebound from Contreras is certainly encouraging, a 124 wRC+ from first base isn’t exactly the sort of production that one would hope for. Among baseball’s 25 qualified first baseman, Contreras ranked just 12th by wRC+ and actually wound up tied with teammate Alec Burleson, who is entering arbitration for the first time this offseason. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Burleson for a salary of just $3.5MM in 2025, a figure that comes in well below the $36.5MM Contreras is owed over the next two years. Given that they can get similar production for much less money in-house, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Cardinals were hoping once again to trade Contreras this winter. For his part, Contreras has stated he prefers to remain in St. Louis but will at least consider waiving his no-trade clause this winter.

While Contreras’s production this year might not be commensurate with his salary now that he’s a first baseman, that doesn’t mean there’s no room for optimism. In fact, there’s plenty of positive signs in Contreras’s performance that leave the door wide open for him to deliver at a high level offensively in the coming years. From May 1 onward, Contreras hit a much more robust .268/.357/.480 with a wRC+ of 136. That’s good for the fifth-highest wRC+ in baseball among first basemen during that period, behind only Nick Kurtz, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Matt Olson, and Michael Busch.

Many players would look a great deal more impressive if you ignored their worst month of the year, of course, but Contreras’s underlying numbers reveal reason for further optimism. The veteran’s .369 xwOBA this season is more or less in line with his numbers since his offensive breakout season in 2022, and a near perfect match for the .370 wOBA he posted in 2024. That performance came with a wRC+ of 141, and there’s at least some reason to believe he could match that performance again in the future.

Contreras’s 13.8% barrel rate and 48.9% hard-hit rate this year were both career highs despite a .190 ISO that was one of the weakest of his career. That drop in ISO and walk rate that dropped to just 7.8% this year were the weakest parts of Contreras’s profile as a hitter this season, and a look at his swing decisions this year reveals the cause of that flaw. Contreras’s contact rate spiked to 73.6% this year, the highest its been since 2018. That’s not a bad thing in isolation, but digging a little deeper reveals that almost all of that improvement came on pitches outside of the strike zone, while he actually swung at pitches inside the zone far less often than he had in the past. Contreras took a swing at just 65.7% of pitches in the strike zone this year, a nearly four-point drop from the previous three seasons.

With Contreras’s impressive underlying power metrics this year, it’s certainly possible that being more aggressive on pitches inside the strike zone could allow him to access more of that power in games than he did this year. Even if that adjustment doesn’t come, however, one major feather in Contreras’s cap is his work with the glove at first base this year. Despite learning the position on the fly this past winter, the veteran posted +6 Outs Above Average this season. Just three first basemen (Olson, Ty France, and Carlos Santana) beat that mark this season, and it stands to reason that Contreras could build on his performance next year now that he has more experience under his belt.

Whether Contreras ultimately ends up finishing out his contract with the Cardinals in St. Louis or getting traded at some point over the next two seasons, it’s hard to view the contract as anything other than a success for the club. In the first four seasons of his five year deal with the organization, Contreras has hit .261/.358/.459 (129 wRC+) with 8.2 fWAR and 8.9 bWAR in 344 games for the Cardinals despite injuries and multiple moves off of his natural position. While the incoming ABS challenge system next year and the lack of catching depth around the league could make the idea of Contreras moving back behind the plate appealing for some potential suitors on the trade market, Contreras proved himself to be a quality first baseman in 2025 and should be able to provide value in that role regardless of if he does so in St. Louis or elsewhere.

Looking For A Match In A Sonny Gray Trade

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The Cardinals are entering what could be a multi-year rebuilding period where they focus more on strengthening their farm system and player development apparatus than winning games at the major league level. That’s a pivot that started last winter, but a number of key veteran players with no-trade clauses wanted to stick with the organization for the 2025 season and try to win in St. Louis. With a 78-84 season in the books and Chaim Bloom having now officially taken over John Mozeliak’s spot atop the baseball operations department, however, those same veterans are softening their stance about the possibility of a trade.

Perhaps the most interesting of those veteran is right-hander Sonny Gray, who is entering the final year of his contract in 2026. Gray is coming off a down season and will turn 36 in November, but his 4.28 ERA in 32 starts this year was still right around league average with much stronger peripheral numbers than that. He struck out 26.7% of his opponents, walked just 5.0%, and had the sixth-lowest SIERA in baseball among qualified starters this year with a 3.29 figure that clocked in behind only Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Cristopher Sanchez, Paul Skenes, and Logan Webb.

That’s good company to keep, considering that all five of those players well might end up as finalists for their respective league’s Cy Young award this year, and should help to assuage concerns about Gray’s ability to compete at a high level in his mid-30s. Few pitchers have a recent track record more impressive than the veteran right-hander, all things considered. In 116 starts since the beginning of the 2022 season, Gray has a 3.53 ERA, a 26.6% strikeout rate, and a 3.17 FIP in 650 2/3 innings of work. It’s the sort of production that virtually any team could use in their rotation, but there are complicating factors in considering a trade for Gray.

The right-hander has a full no-trade clause that he has the ability to wield as he sees fit, and Gray is due a $35MM salary in 2026 with a $5MM buyout on a 2027 mutual option. That’s a hefty salary that a good number of clubs simply won’t be able to stomach, and the fact that Gray has shown a preference for pitching in smaller markets throughout his career could mean he’d wield his no-trade clause against some of the larger market franchises that could stomach his salary. The Cardinals are open to paying down salary in trades this winter, but it’s unclear if they’d be willing to pay down enough of it to get smaller market clubs into the mix for Gray’s services.

Which clubs are the best fits for St. Louis’s veteran hurler? Here’s a look at nine potential suitors, listed alphabetically within tiers:

Best Fits

  • Braves: One of the clear best fits for Gray’s services is Atlanta, who were reportedly in on Gray when he was a free agent two offseasons ago. Since then, the Braves have struggled to stay healthy and even fell out of the playoff picture this year due in large part to a rotation that was desperately missing Max Fried’s stabilizing presence after he left for the Yankees last winter. Atlanta has never been the sort of club to go out and spend hundreds of millions on an ace in free agency, so unless they change course this year they’ll need to get creative to add some certainty to a rotation that saw all of its established starters spend significant time on the injured list this year. Bringing Gray into the fold could be just that sort of creativity, and Alex Anthopoulos has long been comfortable bringing in veterans (like Marcell Ozuna, Josh Donaldson, and Charlie Morton) on short-term deals with high salaries.
  • Giants: The Giants are going to need more than just Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, and Landen Roupp in their rotation next year, and Gray would make plenty of sense for that role. Gray was actually connected to San Francisco back in September as a potential trade target. Some of that report was based on Gray’s connection with former Giants manager Bob Melvin, who has since been fired, but the Giants are still one of the few clubs that could stomach most of Gray’s salary within their expected budget. Gray also had plenty of success pitching for the A’s in Oakland, so a return to the Bay Area might have appeal to him even without Melvin in the fold.
  • Orioles: The Orioles, much like the Braves, found themselves pushed out of contention early this year due in large part to a lack of pitching depth. There’s virtually no certainty in the club’s 2026 rotation outside of Trevor Rogers, and president of baseball operations Mike Elias has shown a strong preference towards short-term additions when bringing in players who make significant dollars. That could make Gray a sensible fit following a season where Baltimore paid more than $41MM combined to Tomoyuki Sugano, Zach Eflin, and Morton for lackluster performances. While the Orioles are a lower budget club than most of the teams mentioned here, St. Louis’s willingness to eat salary could make Gray less of a financial burden than comparable arms in free agency.

Next Tier Down

  • Athletics: Gray played for the Athletics in Oakland for parts of five seasons after they took him 18th overall in the 2011 draft. In that time, he posted a 3.42 ERA and 3.56 FIP across 705 innings of work. Gray was eventually dealt to the Yankees, and in the years since then the A’s have been uprooted from Oakland and moved to West Sacramento. That move came with a raised payroll and a more sincere attempt to compete than previous rebuilding years, however, and a hitting core of Nick Kurtz, Jacob Wilson, Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, and Tyler Soderstrom looks ready to compete in the playoffs. What they’ll need to make that happen is pitching, and Gray has front-of-the-rotation upside and experience playing in unfriendly pitching environments like Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark. Perhaps if Gray was available last offseason, the A’s would’ve been a more sensible fit, but as it stands it’s unclear if the A’s intend to continue scaling up payroll after last season’s spending brought them an 86-loss campaign.
  • Padres: No team comes to mind more quickly than the Padres when discussing creative trade proposals, and that’s entirely thanks to the efforts of president of baseball operations A.J. Preller. Preller is by far the most active and aggressive executive in baseball, and this winter he’ll be tasked with replacing Dylan Cease and Michael King at the top of the rotation despite a relative lack of budget space. Adding someone like Gray to the rotation alongside Nick Pivetta, Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Randy Vasquez, and JP Sears would be a huge help in stabilizing things, but there are clear obstacles here. For one thing, the Cardinals would likely need to be willing to eat the overwhelming majority of Gray’s salary in order to facilitate a deal with San Diego. That would mean a rather high prospect cost for the Padres, and while Preller is never shy about trading prospects his push at this summer’s trade deadline has left those cupboards somewhat barren. What’s more, Gray would be controlled for just the 2026 season, and Preller usually prioritizing trades for controllable players over rentals.
  • Dodgers: When it comes to spending money, there are few (if any) teams in baseball who can do so with the same reckless abandon as the Dodgers. Their payroll this season approached $400MM and it should surprise no one if it ends up in a similar place next season. While their rotation of Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Shohei Ohtani is currently powering them through the postseason, the injury concerns in that group are obvious and the depth behind that quartet is taking a hit with Clayton Kershaw’s impending retirement. Adding a reliable workhorse like Gray would make plenty of sense, and the Dodgers are one of the few clubs that could reasonably take on most if not all of Gray’s salary without much issue. On the other hand, the Dodgers aren’t exactly the sort of small market club Gray has typically preferred to play for over the years, which could be a problem depending on how aggressive he is in using his no-trade clause.

Long Shots:

  • Cubs: On paper, the Cubs might seem like an excellent fit for Gray. The club appears likely to pursue pitching help this winter after injuries to Justin Steele and Cade Horton left them shorthanded this postseason, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has shown a proclivity towards shorter-term additions with higher salaries, and Chicago’s status as a midwest city could be attractive to Gray for the purposes of his no-trade clause considering his previous decisions to sign in Cincinnati, Minnesota, and St. Louis. With all of that said, the biggest obstacle to this sort of trade is that the Cubs and Cardinals have one of the biggest rivalries in the sport and very rarely trade with each other. Perhaps Bloom taking over as president of baseball operations could help thaw that trade embargo, given that he and Brian Cashman executed what was then just the second Yankees/Red Sox trade of the 21st century back in 2021, but it would still be a shock to see the teams line up on a trade of this magnitude.
  • Mets:  The Mets are a team with plenty of willingness to spend money, a major need in the rotation, and a strong preference for bringing pitchers in on relatively short-term contracts. That all would make them seem like an obvious fit for Gray, but it’s fair to wonder how the right-hander’s previous stint in New York could impact interest on both sides. Gray’s 4.51 ERA in parts of two seasons with the Yankees was the worst stretch of his career. It would be understandable if Gray wasn’t interested in returning to New York at this point in his career, even for a different franchise, and it’s equally possible that the Mets would shy away from a pitcher who previously struggled in the sport’s largest media market.
  • Reds: It was with the Reds that Gray turned his career around after leaving New York, and he pitched to a 3.49 ERA across three seasons in Cincinnati. He signed an extension with the club once before, so his no-trade clause would likely be a non-issue, and the Reds were connected to him both during his last trip through free agency and even on the trade market last year. It would stand to reason that there could be some interest between the two sides once again, but the Reds’ limited budget makes a trade hard to envision given that they already have a rotation of Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Brady Singer, and Nick Lodolo locked in for 2026 with youngsters like Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder also in the mix for starts. Whatever budget space Cincinnati has available this winter seems likely to be better used elsewhere on the roster, barring a trade of another arm that creates an opening.

Previewing The 2025-26 Free Agent Class: Center Field

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A number of teams (and their fanbases) have already turned their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking a look at the players who’ll be available at each position.

We’re moving to center field, a position that has been weak in free agency for the past few years. That’s again the case this winter, as the handful of potential regulars face questions about their offensive consistency and/or how long they can play up the middle. Ages listed are for the 2026 season.

Previous entries in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop

Everyday Players

Trent Grisham (29)

Grisham has gone from fourth outfielder to the top center fielder in the class within six months. He picked a great time for the best season of his career. Grisham connected on 34 home runs, doubling his previous season high. He pushed his already strong walk rate to a career-high 14.1% clip while cutting his strikeouts (23.6%) to the lowest mark in four years. The end result was a .235/.348/.464 slash line across 581 plate appearances. He spent most of the season hitting atop the Yankee lineup in front of Aaron Judge.

It’s not entirely fair to say that came out of nowhere. Grisham is a former top prospect who had a couple strong seasons with the Padres early in his career. He had hit just .191/.298/.353 in nearly 1300 trips to the plate from 2022-24, however, so almost no one would have seen a season like this coming.

The breakout was neither a product of batted ball luck nor Yankee Stadium. Grisham posted well above-average marks in hard hit rate, barrels and average exit velocity. Statcast’s expected batting average and slugging percentage (based on his plate discipline, exit velocities and launch angles) were even better than his actual production. That doesn’t necessarily mean the numbers are sustainable. Even if this year’s results were “deserved,” there’s no guarantee he’ll continue swinging the bat as well as he did.

While this was a career year offensively, Grisham’s defensive grades went the other way. Both Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved had graded him as an average or better defender in every previous season. That was not the case this year, with DRS (-11) particularly down on his work. Grisham’s speed has trended down over the past few seasons and he’s now one of the slower center fielders in MLB.

It leaves teams with a difficult evaluation. Will Grisham remain an impact bat at the top of a lineup? How much longer will he stick in center field? He’s one of the most high-variance players in the entire free agent class. The Yankees should make him a qualifying offer, which he’d almost certainly decline. That’d entitle them to a compensatory pick after the fourth round while costing a signing team draft (and potentially international bonus pool) compensation. A four- or five-year deal could be on the table.

Cody Bellinger (30)

Bellinger is opting out of the final year on his contract with the Yankees. New York won’t be able to make him a qualifying offer because he already received one from the Cubs after the 2023 season. Bellinger won’t be attached to draft compensation and should pull a larger contract than Grisham, potentially in the nine figures.

It’s unclear if any team would make that kind of offer for Bellinger to play center field every day. He hasn’t reached 500 innings at the position in either of the past two years. The Cubs split him evenly between center and right in 2024. The Yankees gave him 38 starts and a little over 300 innings in center while playing him more often in the corners. Bellinger still runs well and grades as a strong corner defender, though the hope would probably be for league average glovework if a team plays him in center.

Bellinger hit 29 homers while slashing .272/.334/.480 across 656 plate appearances. His left-handed swing seemed tailor made for Yankee Stadium, as he hit .302/.365/.544 with 18 longballs at home. His pedestrian road numbers (.241/.301/.414) could give some teams pause, and Belllinger’s middling exit velocities have been a talking point for the past few years. He very rarely strikes out, though, and he’s coming off his second well above-average offensive season in the past three years.

Harrison Bader (32)

Bader will decline his end of a $10MM mutual option in favor of a $1.5MM buyout. He hits the market for a third consecutive offseason. His past two trips resulted in one-year deals. Bader should find a multi-year pact this time around, and there’s an outside chance he commands a three-year deal.

A plus runner with excellent range and a strong arm, Bader has been a fantastic defender throughout his career. Even at 32, he’s the best defensive center fielder on the open market (assuming the White Sox pick up their option on Luis Robert). Bader split his 2025 season almost equally between left and center, but that was only because he spent the first half playing in the same Minnesota outfield as Byron Buxton. He was a full-time center fielder after being traded to the Phillies at the deadline.

The question is how much of this year’s personal-best offensive output is sustainable. Bader slashed .277/.347/.449 with a career-high 17 home runs in 501 plate appearances. He set new high water marks in batting average and on-base percentage. His slugging output was the second-best of his career behind his 2021 season with St. Louis.

Bader’s underlying offensive metrics are not as encouraging. He struck out at a 27.1% clip, his highest rate in five seasons. He made more hard contact than he had in prior years, but Statcast estimators feel he dramatically outperformed his expected batting average and slugging percentage. He’s unlikely to hit .359 on balls in play again. Teams will expect him to take a step back offensively. He should land somewhere in between this year’s production and the .239/.284/.360 slash he posted over the prior three seasons.

Low-End Regulars/Fourth Outfielders

Cedric Mullins (31)

A few months ago, Mullins had an outside chance at a nine-figure deal. He started the year on fire, hitting .278/.412/.515 with six home runs through the end of April. He was on pace for his best season since he was a top ten MVP finisher four years ago.

Things fell apart. Mullins had a sub-.650 OPS in four of the final five months. He hit .198/.263/.355 in 379 plate appearances from May 1 onward. A deadline trade to the Mets didn’t serve as the turning point they’d hoped. Mullins hit .182/.284/.281 over 42 games in Queens. He was essentially relegated to fourth outfield work as the team squandered a playoff berth.

Mullins still logged over 1000 innings in center field. Defensive metrics have been mixed on him throughout his career. Statcast grades him as a generally rangy defender but rates his arm as one of the worst in the league. He’ll probably find a team willing to play him every day, but he’s likely looking at a one-year deal.

Lane Thomas (30)

While Thomas is probably better suited for right field, the Guardians mostly used him in center. Cleveland paid a decent prospect price to acquire Thomas from Washington at the 2024 deadline. It didn’t work out (postseason homer off Tarik Skubal aside), as he hit .189/.258/.340 over 329 plate appearances with the Guardians. That includes a .160/.246/.272 slash over 39 games this season. Thomas dealt with a right wrist injury early in the season and tried to play through plantar fasciitis in his right foot. He had three separate injured list stints overall.

Thomas is only two seasons removed from hitting 28 homers and stealing 20 bases for the Nats. He was an above-average regular who feasted on left-handed pitching at his best. He’ll need to take a one-year deal after how poorly things went in Cleveland.

Team Options

Luis Robert Jr. (28)

Robert isn’t likely to get to the market. The White Sox hold a $20MM club option that comes with a $2MM buyout. The $18MM difference is substantial for a player who has been a below-average hitter in consecutive seasons. The White Sox maintained a high asking price on Robert in trade talks, though, and GM Chris Getz has implied that they’ll exercise the option. There’s another $20MM option for 2027, so there’s still some long-term upside if Robert recaptures the form he showed earlier in his career.

Minor League Deal Candidates

Previewing The 2025-26 Free Agent Class: Shortstop

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A number of teams (and their fanbases) have already turned their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking a look at the players who’ll be available at each position.

We’re moving to shortstop, where there is one guy clearly above the rest of the pack, though even he comes with notable question marks. The market behind him will be shaped by a couple of key option decisions. Ages listed are for the 2026 season.

Previous entries in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base

Top of the Class

Bichette will hit free agency at a relatively young age and coming off a strong season at the plate. Apart from an injury-marred 2024, his offense has been consistently above average. Through the end of 2023, he had a .299/.340/.487 line and 126 wRC+. He has never drawn tons of walks but is also tough to strike out. He had a 143 wRC+ in his brief 2019 debut but then was in the 120-129 range in four straight seasons after that.

As mentioned, he struggled badly while playing through a number of injuries last year. The end result was a .225/.277/.322 line and 70 wRC+. This year, until recently, he was healthy and back to his old self. He finished 2025 with a .311/.357/.483 line and 134 wRC+.

There’s no doubting the bat but there are other questions. Bichette’s defense has never been highly rated. Defensive Runs Saved has given him a -19 grade in his career. Outs Above Average puts him at -32. His 2025 season resulted in -12 DRS and -13 OAA. Those numbers from this year were both last among shortstops.

Then there’s the health stuff. Bichette has dealt with lower body injuries in three straight seasons now. Right knee and quad injuries sent him to the injured list late in 2023. Last year, it was mostly his right calf which was causing him problems. This year, he suffered a sprain of the posterior cruciate ligament in his left knee in a collision with Yankee catcher Austin Wells, as seen in this clip from MLB.com. He’s now been out more than a month, having missed the end of the regular season and all of Toronto’s postseason run so far.

In recent years, strong everyday shortstops like Willy Adames, Dansby Swanson, Javier Báez and Trevor Story have earned guarantees in the $140-$182MM range. Bichette is a better hitter than anyone in that group was when they hit free agency. He’s also a year younger than they all were. The questions about his defense and health should dock him somewhat but he should still have plenty of earning power. Perhaps not many clubs view him as a viable shortstop but the bat is good enough that it might not matter. Marcus Semien got $175MM to move to second base and Bichette could follow that path.

Two Big Option Decisions

Kim can opt out of the final year of his contract, which would mean leaving $16MM on the table. He isn’t coming off a great season, having hit just .234/.304/.345 for a wRC+ of 82. However, he is at least healthy. Last offseason, he got a two-year, $29MM guarantee even though he was recovering from shoulder surgery and was slated to miss the beginning of the season. He’s unlikely to secure a massive deal, but another two-year deal with an opt-out should be available to him, especially with so few viable alternatives on this list.

Prior to his shoulder surgery, he had a strong run with the Padres. From 2022 to 2024, he slashed .250/.336/.385 for a 106 wRC+ while stealing 72 bases and providing quality defense at various positions. FanGraphs credited him with 10.5 wins above replacement over those three seasons, a pace of 3.5 WAR annually. He didn’t immediately bounce back in 2025 but perhaps he can find a new gear now that he’s further removed from surgery.

Story is arguably in the inverse position of Kim. He had a better season in 2025 but has less of a case for opting out. He had roughly league average offense this year but that includes a slow start after three injury-marred years. Once he got in a groove, he stayed in it. He had a .216/.260/.326 line and 59 wRC+ through the end of May but then slashed .289/.334/.492 for a 124 wRC+ from June onwards. He also stole 31 bases on the year.

However, his defense was graded poorly and he is about to turn 33 years old. He has two years and $55MM left on his deal. Despite his strong season, his age and injury history may scare teams away from investing in him. He may be tempted to trigger the opt-out, as that forces the Sox to decide whether or not to keep him by triggering his 2028 club option. But since his contract looked like an albatross just a few months ago, the Sox might be happy to let him walk. They could try Marcelo Mayer at short and then use Story’s money to re-sign Alex Bregman or add pitching.

Multi-Positional Types

Castro had a solid few years with the Twins but his production cratered at the worst time. He slashed .251/.334/.395 for a 107 wRC+ over 2023 and 2024 while stealing 47 bases and bouncing all around the diamond. His numbers this year were right on that pace until he was traded to the Cubs. After the swap, he hit .170/.245/.240 for a wRC+ of 40. That awful finish will cut into his earning power and he’s not a strong enough defender to be an everyday shortstop anyway. But he can play there in a pinch while also being an option basically everywhere else. He doesn’t have a ton of juice but even light-hitting utility types have value. The Blue Jays gave Isiah Kiner-Falefa $15MM over two years heading into 2024, for instance, and IKF has never had an above-average offensive season.

Speaking of which, that two-year pact is about to expire, meaning IKF will be back out there again this winter. The Jays traded him to the Pirates last year but got him back via a waiver claim here in 2025. He hit .266/.302/.356 for a wRC+ of 84 over the course of the deal but was still worth 2.8 fWAR thanks to his 26 stolen bases and strong glovework at various positions. He’s currently getting a decent amount of playing time from a club on the doorstep of the World Series. It’s not the most exciting profile but IKF is a more viable defensive shortstop than Castro. Considering the lack of options on the market, someone should be able to find a role for him.

Rojas has said he plans to retire after 2026 and hopes that he can stay with the Dodgers for his final season. He’s been pretty solid in the past couple of years, hitting .273/.328/.404 for a 105 wRC+ while continuing to be a viable defender around the dirt. If it’s not with the Dodgers, some other club would be happy to utilize him in a similar bench/utility role.

Minor League Deal Candidates

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