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Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

For the first time in a while, perhaps, the Rockies have more answers than questions on their roster heading into 2017. But plenty of needs remain to be addressed if the team hopes to break a string of six-straight losing campaigns — let alone crack the postseason for the first time since 2009.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; link to MLBTR projections)

Other Salary Obligations

Free Agents

Rockies Depth Chart; Rockies Payroll Information

Pitching is always the great question in Colorado. The thin air of Coors Field poses a unique challenge, and the organization has yet to find a systematic means of dealing with that problem.

While altitude-master Jorge De La Rosa is finally moving on, though, the organization finds itself with a reasonably promising array of starters entering the winter. At the top of the list is Jon Gray, who made good on his billing (and draft status) with 168 solid frames in his first full season in the majors. Tyler Anderson showed well in his debut year, and the still-youthful Tyler Chatwood bounced back nicely from Tommy John surgery. While Chad Bettis wasn’t quite a good in the earned run department as he was in his surprising 2015 season, he still profiles as a sturdy rotation piece after providing 186 frames.

Having four bona fide starters isn’t enough, of course, but the Rockies have some other internal options. Jeff Hoffman — the top prospect acquired in the Troy Tulowitzki deal — comes with some upside. Another first-round arm, lefty Kyle Freeland, reached Triple-A last year and may soon be ready for a chance at the bigs. German Marquez also briefly touched the majors last year after an impressive run in the upper minors, though he’s still just 21 years old. The club could still give a shot to Jordan Lyles, if he’s tendered; though he’s coming off of a rough year, and has dealt with injuries, he’s not far removed from a promising 2014 season in which he recorded a 4.33 ERA over 22 starts. And Eddie Butler has always been seen as having plenty of talent, so it would be unwise to rule him out as an option if he can get back on track early in 2017.

Still, there’s plenty of reason to believe that GM Jeff Bridich should search for a way to bolster that unit. Top-tier free agent starters and those seeking a place to re-launch their careers are generally unwilling to go to Colorado, at least absent a substantial overpay, so that’s an unlikely course. Bridich has utilized the open market previously, signing Kyle Kendrick to an ill-fated, $5.5MM pact before the 2015 season, so he could still look to fill some innings that way. Otherwise, the Rox could look to the trade market to obtain a reliable arm.

The same general calculus holds true in the bullpen, where there’s an even more apparent need for improvement. Colorado will hope that its investments in Jason Motte and Chad Qualls look better at the end of next season than they do at present. While Boone Logan finally contributed in the third year of his own free agent contract, he’s now back on the market. Last winter’s major trade acquisition, lefty Jake McGee, will need to reverse his plummeting velocity and strikeout numbers.

There’s some hope, at least, that the Rockies will get more out of Motte, Qualls, and especially McGee in 2017. But the real cause for optimism lies elsewhere in the pen. Adam Ottavino picked up where he left off when he underwent Tommy John surgery, and seems to have the inside track on the closer’s role. Carlos Estevez faded after taking over the ninth last year, but he has a big heater and generated 9.7 K/9 over his first 55 major league frames. And southpaw Chris Rusin, who flamed out as a starter, thrived in a bullpen role, working to a 2.58 ERA with a 41:8 K/BB ratio in his 45 1/3 relief innings.

That gives Colorado six rather clear pen options, with any of the above-noted starting candidates also representing plausible relievers depending upon how things shake out. There are a few others who could be considered, too, including young righty Miguel Castro. But as with the rotation, the addition of at least one sturdy arm would seem to make quite a bit of sense. Bridich has suggested that finding impact arms will be a key focus, though as he admits, it may require a calculated roll of the dice to get something done.

Indeed, beyond the problem of marketing the game’s worst home pitching environment, the Rockies have another potential limitation at play. The organization is fresh off of a season in which it carried a team-record $112MM payroll, and is already in for $66MM for the coming year, with an estimated $36.3MM in arbitration payouts still to be accounted for (as well as a host of league-minimum salaries to fill out the roster). While non-tendering Lyles or even McGee could free up some cash, it would also mean shedding depth. Owner Dick Monfort has said that the organization will set another record in salary in 2017, but it’s not clear whether that will represent a significant increase over last year’s number. If not, there’ll be some tough decisions to make.

The obvious question is whether the Rockies will consider dealing from their stock of left-handed-hitting outfielders to facilitate the acquisition of players that could help elsewhere. Center fielder Charlie Blackmon is the team’s best trade piece, as he’s still reasonably priced, is controlled for two more years, and is coming off of an outstanding all-around campaign. He’d be the type of piece that might bring back a truly high-quality rotation piece, and could be replaced up the middle by David Dahl, who was excellent in his debut last year.

Still, parting with Blackmon would mean giving up one of the club’s best all-around players and relying heavily on Dahl. And depending upon the return, it might not do much to change the financial picture. Shedding some of the obligation owed to Gerardo Parra would obviously make sense to Colorado after his ugly and injury-riddled first year with the team, but they’d be selling low and might not find a willing slate of buyers.

Instead, it may finally make sense for the organization to pursue a deal involving star Carlos Gonzalez. He’s owed a cool $20MM — over a sixth of the team’s current projected payroll — in the final year of his deal. Though he has finally been healthy for two consecutive seasons, and has knocked 65 homers since the start of 2015, his overall production at the plate of late has been more solid than great. And the recent iteration of Gonzalez doesn’t draw above-average reviews from metrics with the glove or on the bases. It’s unlikely at this point that a rival organization would give up a major haul of prospects to add the 31-year-old, but shaving his salary off of the books — and possibly picking up a solid arm in the process — might be a way to gain some breathing room without really harming the team’s immediate outlook.

Gonzalez says he’s open to an extension (though there’s no evidence of talks), and would even be okay with moving to first if that’s what’s needed, but it’s far from clear that the Rockies would be best off with all four southpaw swingers on the roster. In fact, the team even has two other possible lefty outfield options on hand in Jordan Patterson and Raimel Tapia, both of whom hit well in the upper minors and briefly reached the bigs last year. As things stand, Colorado would still be in need of a quality right-handed bat to utilize in the outfield, if not also at first, and there wouldn’t appear to be much cash to work with.

If one of the three veteran outfielders ends up being traded, the remaining needs would be fairly evident. The left side of the infield is stocked with superstar Nolan Arenado and slugging shortstop Trevor Story, who’ll be looking to build off of an impressive rookie year that was cut short due to injury. DJ LeMahieu has established himself as a high-quality, everyday second baseman. And there are at least two plausible, albeit uncertain, options on hand both behind the dish (Tony Wolters and Tom Murphy) for the open utility infield role (Christian Adames and Pat Valaika).

The biggest hole is at first, and that’s also perhaps the spot that the Rockies could target for a value bet in free agency. That’s just what Colorado did last year in signing veteran slugger Mark Reynolds, with somewhat middling results. Given the lefty-leaning nature of the outfield, a righty bat would likely make the most sense. Mark Trumbo could conceivably be a target, though it would be surprising to see the Rockies spend that big — particularly on a hitter whose power masks a questionable all-around offensive profile. A lengthy commitment also wouldn’t be preferable; top prospect Ryan McMahon hasn’t yet mastered Double-A, but he could be an option in the corner infield in the near future. Looking at shorter-term possibilities, there’s wide interest in Mike Napoli, but he could be a match. Better bang for the buck might be found with a player such as Steve Pearce or Sean Rodriguez, both of whom would also offer greater defensive versatility. On the trade market, bat-first, right-handed options such as Chris Carter could probably be had. It’s also easy to imagine a platoon coming together.

The most intriguing option, though, could be Matt Holliday. The 36-year-old, who began his career in Colorado, can still swing the bat and has expressed some interest in a return. He’d represent an option both at first and, at least on occasion, in the corner outfield. While there could be some overlap in needs, adding a righty bat that’s capable of playing the outfield is a near certainty. Indy ball project Stephen Cardullo hit well at Triple-A, but he’d be a stretch in what figures to be a fairly active fourth outfielder role. The team might prefer to add a center-capable option, particularly if Blackmon is moved, which would make relatively affordable players such as Jon Jay or Rajai Davis seem to be plausible targets. This year’s market includes a fair number of reasonably youthful, buy-low options, such as Austin Jackson, Peter Bourjos, and Desmond Jennings.

Behind the dish, Wolters and Murphy could make up the duo. The former was useful enough in his first major league stint and the latter annihilated pitching at Triple-A and (quite briefly) the majors. Dustin Garneau is also on hand, so there’s not a huge need here. But with sturdy veteran Nick Hundley departing, Colorado could be on the lookout for a short-term addition to bolster the depth. Likewise, filling in for free agent Daniel Descalso could mean checking into the utility pieces available for a meager commitment.

Beyond acquisitions, the Rockies could also spend some time looking into extensions. It’s a bit early to move on Gray, but he’s one possibility. And the club could look to lock up some innings at a reasonable rate with Chatwood. The big fish, though, are Blackmon and especially Arenado. Neither will be cheap, but this might be the time to make a move if the Rox hope to employ either for the long haul. An early attempt to buy out Story’s arb years at a reasonable rate and add some team control might also be considered.

All said, expectations are fairly high this winter. But new skipper Bud Black will need some new weapons to call upon if the Rockies hope to compete in an NL West division that will (as usual) feature two high-powered teams in the Dodgers and Giants.

MLBTR Originals

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This week’s original content from MLBTR:

  • Continuing this year’s Offseason Outlook series, Jason Martinez analyzed what’s ahead for the Diamondbacks and Dodgers, while Steve Adams focused on the reigning American League champion Indians.
  • In the latest edition of this offseason’s Free Agent Profile series, Jeff Todd broke down outfielder Ian Desmond’s strengths and weaknesses, looked at which teams could make a push for him and examined the type of contract he stands to receive.

Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

After signing Zack Greinke and acquiring Shelby Miller last offseason, the D-backs had high expectations in 2016. Things couldn’t have gone much worse, though. Star center fielder A.J. Pollock went down late in camp. The club fell out of the playoff race early on and ended up losing 93 games. Manager Chip Hale and general manager Dave Stewart lost their jobs. And Chief Baseball Officer Tony LaRussa ended up being reduced to a lesser role. Now, a revamped front office, led by a group of former Red Sox execs, has been tasked with turning things around.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Zack Greinke, SP: $172.6MM through 2021.
  • Yasmany Tomas, OF: $56MM through 2020. Tomas can become a free agent after the 2018 World Series if he declines a player option.
  • Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $22MM through 2018. Contract includes a $14.5MM club option in 2019 with a $2MM buyout.

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

Arizona Diamondbacks Depth Chart; Arizona Diamondbacks Payroll Information

A new era has begun in Arizona with a shift from the “old school” mindset of Stewart and Hall of Fame manager LaRussa, who had no front office experience when he was hired in May 2014, to an analytics-savvy group with much more front office experience. Mike Hazen was hired last month as the team’s executive vice president and general manager. Amiel Sawdaye and Jared Porter, who worked together for years with Hazen in the Red Sox front office, have since been brought in as his top assistants. Torey Lovullo, Boston’s bench coach for the past four seasons, was hired as manager.

Lovullo inherits a roster that was one of the most disappointing in baseball last season. Injuries to Pollock (46 plate appearances) and fellow outfielder David Peralta (183 plate appearances) didn’t help. Greinke, while still an effective starting pitcher with a 62% quality start rate, finished the season with his highest ERA (4.37) since 2005, highest H/9 (9.1) and HR/9 (1.3) since 2006 and highest WHIP (1.273) since 2008. Miller was a disaster, posting a 6.15 ERA in 20 starts. And Patrick Corbin failed to bounce back to his pre-Tommy John surgery form.

Yet, this D-backs roster has a lot of talent. Well, at least talented hitters. The pitching staff was one of the worst in baseball in 2016. While the Orioles (19th in ERA) and Rangers (22nd in ERA) did their best to out-slug opponents all the way to the playoffs, the other eight post-season qualifiers had the eight lowest ERAs in baseball. Good pitching and good defense win championships. While the D-backs still have some really good arms in their organization, it’s hard to find one, other than Greinke, who they can confidently rely on for 180+ quality innings.

Hazen will likely look to add at least one starting pitcher to the mix, along with a closer and setup man. He has indicated that the payroll is expected to stay around $100MM—they’re currently projected just under that, including non-guaranteed salary projections—which would probably limit him to bargain hunting on the free agent market. Club president/CEO Derrick Hall has stated, however, that his new general manager won’t face payroll limitations, at least not on his first year on the job. Regardless of how these somewhat conflicting statements are interpreted, Hazen has the trade chips that would allow him not only to improve and balance out the roster, but also to create some payroll flexibility at the same time.

Peralta and Pollock should have strong trade value despite missing most of 2016. Welington Castillo, who is due to become a free agent next offseason, should also draw interest with several teams looking for catching help. Hazen could also flip second baseman Jean Segura at peak value after one brilliant season in Arizona. Yasmany Tomas, a bad defender with a low walk rate and a hefty salary, will likely be shopped to American League teams, but it won’t be easy an easy sell despite his huge second half at the plate (.294/.323/.584). Of course, trading players such as those would run the risk of opening holes elsewhere on the roster.

Young starters Archie Bradley, Robbie Ray and Braden Shipley each had their moments, but all finished the season with an ERA in the neighborhood of 5.00. All struggled badly at Chase Field. The left-handed Ray, who struck out 218 hitters in 174 1/3 innings, is a bit of an enigma. His 11.3 K/9 rate indicates that batters would have a tough time putting the ball in play, but he gave up more than a hit per inning and allowed five earned runs in nine of his 32 starts. Corbin finished the season in the bullpen after struggling to follow up on his promising 2015 season.

The good news is that Bradley, Shipley and Miller — all former No. 1 prospects in their respective organizations at one time — join Ray as arms with their share of upside. And Corbin, the oldest of the group at age 27, pitched well during his late-season bullpen stint—he had an 0.95 ERA while holding opponents to a .141 batting average in mostly two and three-inning stints over his last nine appearances.

There are a few other names to consider, too. Rubby De La Rosa was beginning to look like a breakout candidate in 2016 after a stretch of four dominant starts in five outings between April 23rd and May 15th. Unfortunately, he would make just one more start before an elbow injury knocked him out of action until September. After undergoing stem cell treatment in September in an attempt to avoid Tommy John surgery, the 27-year-old’s status is up in the air for 2017. Matt Koch could be in the mix for a rotation spot after a pair of impressive September starts (11 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, BB, 6 K) in addition to a scoreless four-inning relief stint, as might lefty Anthony Banda, who was very good during his first season in the upper minors (2.88 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 9.1 K/9 in 26 starts between Triple-A and Double-A).

The bullpen picture is just as murky with Jake Barrett the only young pitcher to force his way into the picture for 2017. The 25-year-old, who had a 3.49 ERA, four saves and eight holds in 68 appearances, could get a shot at the closer’s role, but is more likely slated for setup duty. Randall Delgado, while unable to work his way into a late-inning role, remains a valuable middle reliever who can take the ball often (79 appearances in 2016) and pitch multiple innings on occasion. Aside from that duo, it’s a wide open competition for whatever spots are still left after Hazen is done shopping.

Hard-throwing Enrique Burgos didn’t fare well when given an opportunity to pitch with the game on the line. Silvino Bracho’s minor league dominance hasn’t carried over to the big leagues. Andrew Chafin took a step backwards due to injuries and ineffectiveness after a very good 2015 season. That’s not to say he can’t bounce back, or that Burgos and Bracho won’t take a step forward. But these are currently some of the team’s top candidates to fill out the bullpen, which is why adding to the relief corps is a top priority for Hazen. A wild card could be De La Rosa, who might be a better fit in the ’pen if he can avoid Tommy John surgery. Lefty Jared Miller has likely worked his way into the team’s plans with his dominant performance in the Arizona Fall League (16 IP, 0 R, 5 H, 3 BB, 27 K).

It’s hard to know what kinds of targets might be pursued, not least of which since salary considerations could leave the D-Backs waiting for buy-low opportunities to emerge. But there are a fair number of former closers on the market this year, including recent Red Sox hurler Koji Uehara as well as Drew Storen, Santiago Casilla, Joaquin Benoit, Jonathan Papelbon, Fernando Rodney, Joe Nathan, and former Arizona man Brad Ziegler. Offering a shot at the ninth inning to one of those pitchers — or, perhaps, another who doesn’t have a history as a closer — could be a nice way to woo some talent without paying top dollar.

Turning to the lineup, the team has to be encouraged by the emergence of Brandon Drury, who had a .786 OPS, 16 homers and 31 doubles in 499 plate appearances while playing four different positions (LF, RF, 3B, 2B), and third baseman Jake Lamb (.804 OPS, 29 HR, 31 2B). They further bolster a group that’s led by perennial MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt, Pollock (20 HR, 39 2B, 39 SB in 2015), Peralta (.893 OPS, 17 HR, 26 2B, 10 3B in 2015), Segura (.867 OPS, 20 HR, 41 2B, 33 SB), Castillo and Tomas.

With so much firepower in the top seven spots of the order, it’s not a given that Chris Owings, an average defender who had a .731 OPS with 21 stolen bases, will beat out Nick Ahmed, a Gold Glove caliber defender who can’t hit much at all, for the starting shortstop gig. Owings might have more value as a super utility-man, anyways—he’s also played second base and center field—especially if Drury ends up being the everyday left fielder.

If the outfield goes Tomas-Pollock-Peralta, the organization likely will be set for the bulk of its innings. And other internal options can probably make up for the rest. Mitch Haniger may be first in line for reserve duties after cracking the majors last year. Chris Herrmann can both back up behind the plate and spend some time in the corner outfield. Reasonably intriguing prospects such as Peter O’Brien and Socrates Brito remain on hand, and perhaps are ready to sink or swim. And the D-Backs already claimed Jeremy Hazelbaker to provide a possible left-handed complement to Tomas.

Ultimately, Arizona doesn’t seem destined to do much tinkering with its position players, at least this winter. That could all change if a golden trade offer floats into Hazen’s door, but for now it seems rather likely that the organization will mostly stand pat and see what it can do to add arms. All is quiet on the Diamondbacks rumor front at the moment, but they cannot completely be discounted in the pursuit of top free agents. Hall’s comments on the payroll should at least leave open the possibility that they can make a free agent splash. Remember that this is the team that swooped in at the last minute to win the Greinke sweepstakes … though it’s fair to wonder whether Hazen will prefer that approach.

Indeed, if the plan is to not increase payroll, is it possible that they go in the complete opposite direction and allow the new front office to tear down and start over? Hey, a bunch of former Red Sox execs executed the rebuilding plan to perfection with the Cubs. With several valuable trade assets, it has to be a tempting possibility for the group of former Red Sox execs now running the show in Arizona.

Free Agent Profile: Ian Desmond

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When we did this exercise last winter, Ian Desmond was a shortstop. Now, he’s a center fielder who also holds out some promise of adding value at the corner outfield or in various infield roles.

Pros/Strengths

It’s easy to overstate clubhouse presence, but Desmond has earned unbridled praise from both of his most recent employers (the Nationals and Rangers) in that regard. He’s a hard worker who doesn’t shy away from taking responsibility when things don’t go well; if anyone gets a boost for their makeup, it’s him.

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Desmond also earns top marks for his outstanding athleticism, which allowed him to transition rather seamlessly off of the shortstop position. While he’s still capable of playing there, Desmond proved a quick study in both left and center after joining the Rangers on a one-year deal when his market failed to materialize last winter. The versatility stands out as a feather in his cap, though it’s fair to wonder whether teams will worry about relying too heavily on him in a multi-positional role given the fact that his propensity for errors in the infield played a major role in his shift off of the dirt.

If the 31-year-old has a single, standout skill, it’s his baserunning. He has swiped at least 20 bags in five of the last six years, but is even more impressive in his overall contributions. Desmond ranks ninth in all of baseball since the start of 2014 in total baserunning contributions, by measure of Fangraphs’ BsR rating. It’s an underappreciated aspect of his game, but one that adds real value.

At the plate, Desmond is a safe bet for 20 or more long balls annually. And he returned to his typically above-average overall contributions with a rise in his batting average last year, ending with a .285/.335/.446 slash over 677 plate appearances. That was good for a 106 wRC+, which doesn’t come close to his breakout 2012 output but nevertheless makes him a sturdy offensive presence.

Better still, Desmond reversed what had been a troubling increase in his strikeout tendencies. He had struck out in just under 30 percent of his plate appearances in the prior two campaigns but drew that back to a 23.6% K rate in 2016. He draws walks at just under the league average rate, but makes up for that in part by typically carrying a robust BABIP (.350 in 2016, .326 for his career) that is supported by his speed and what was a personal-low 26.0% fly-ball rate (which fell well below the league average). When Desmond does put the ball in the air, it often leaves the yard. He turned 18.2% of his flies into homers in 2016 and has often been at or near that mark in recent seasons.

Cons/Weaknesses

Those positives at the plate do hint at some questions, of course. Desmond still swung through 12.2% of the pitches he offered at last year, which was better than his rates in the two prior years but remains elevated. And batting average on balls in play is a double-edged sword. While he’s a solid bet to carry a higher-than-average mark, his mediocre 2015 season coincided with a BABIP dip. He’s also made soft contact in over a fifth of the times he has put the ball in play in each of the last two seasons, which is above league average and a much higher rate than he carried in his best seasons (2012-2014).

With those considerations in mind, teams will need to think hard about how they expect Desmond to age. Any erosion of his speed or contact could spell problems, as he has never shown much in the way of forward progress in his walk rate. Desmond took free passes in 6.5% of his plate appearances in 2016, against a career mark of 7.3%, and is below average in that regard.

The lack of a stable offensive approach has contributed to Desmond’s noted streakiness as a hitter. He started off slow for Texas last year, then charged to a .322/.375/.524 batting line through his first 89 games. There were signs that he had turned a corner. At that point, it was 2012 all over again. But the second half wasn’t nearly as promising. Over his final 293 trips to the plate in 2016, Desmond slashed just .237/.283/.347 with only seven home runs and 66 strikeouts against 16 walks.

The early-season narrative about Desmond’s glovework in the outfield also changed as time went on. He rated well in a short sample in left and seemed to be off to a nice start in center, aided in part by his powerful arm. But while both UZR and DRS tallied his full year contribution as a positive with his throwing, they soured on his range and playmaking ability. Over 1,109 innings in center, Desmond received a -5.7 grade from UZR and -6 from DRS. While that’s at least palatable enough to think he can man the center field position, it suggests there’s some refinement in order before we can safely assume that his legs and glove support a strong floor as an up-the-middle performer.

Personal

Desmond and his wife, Chelsea, have three children and live in their native Sarasota, Florida. Desmond is known for being active in the community and has done charity work relating to neurofibromatosis and the Nationals’ Urban Youth Academy initiative. On the eve of free agency, Desmond switched agencies, moving to CAA Baseball.

Market

The Rangers have made clear that they’d like to bring Desmond back, which helps reinforce the notion that his transition to the outfield is viewed as a success. Texas made him a qualifying offer, which Desmond unsurprisingly rejected. That means he’ll enter the market carrying the baggage of draft pick compensation — a burden which proved to be a major factor in his disappointing foray into free agency last winter.

Unlike his experience the last time around, when there wasn’t a ton of demand at the shortstop position, Desmond could profile as a fit with quite a few organizations. And he also may benefit from the fact that there are relatively few enticing free agents, with Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gomez representing the major competition in center field. Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Saunders, Jose Bautista and Mark Trumbo represent potential competition in the outfield corners (if one still considers the latter two viable options there).

The Astros, Cardinals, White Sox, and Nationals are all in the market in center, and the Indians could be as well. Teams looking at corner outfield or even utility types could also be involved, with the Orioles already showing interest and hypothetical matches to be found with the Giants, Dodgers, Mariners, Braves, and possibly the Phillies (depending on how things proceed following their acquisition of Howie Kendrick).

Expected Contract

At age 31, Desmond is still comfortably in the same range as many free agents who receive offers of four or even five years in length. And with a considerably stronger season in 2016 than 2015 as well as newfound defensive versatility, he should get the multi-year deal that eluded him last winter. In our ranking of the top 50 free agents, we pegged Desmond at four years and $60MM, which would land him between the four-year deals inked by Ben Zobrist ($56MM) and Alex Gordon ($72MM) last winter. It’s certainly possible to imagine his ultimate contract falling within $10MM or so in either direction of that $60MM mark, but it still seems a plausible expectation at this point.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

After missing out on their first World Series title in nearly 70 years, the Indians enter the offseason with a strong core in place but multiple injury question marks as well.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jason Kipnis, 2B: $39.5MM through 2019 (including buyout of 2020 option)
  • Corey Kluber, RHP: $32MM through 2019 (including buyout of 2020 option)
  • Yan Gomes, C: $18.45MM through 2019 (including buyout of 2020 option)
  • Andrew Miller, LHP: $18MM through 2018
  • Carlos Carrasco, RHP: $15.1625MM through 2018 (including buyout of 2019 option)
  • Carlos Santana, 1B/DH: $12MM through 2017
  • Michael Brantley, OF: $8.5MM through 2017 (including buyout of 2018 option)
  • Josh Tomlin, RHP: $3.25MM through 2017 (including buyout of 2018 option)

Arbitration Eligible Players

Contract Options

  • Carlos Santana, 1B/DH: $12MM option with a $1.2MM buyout (team already exercised)

Free Agents

Cleveland Indians Depth Chart; Cleveland Indians Payroll Information

Game 7 of the World Series was an emotional roller coaster for Indians and Cubs fans alike, but the Indians’ followers will be the ones who have to endure the thoughts of what might have been this winter after coming up just shy in the 8-7 extra-inning loss. The good news for the Cleveland faithful, though, is that the vast majority of the 2016 team will be back in 2017 — including the entire pitching staff. Corey Kluber will once again lead the rotation, possibly with a second Cy Young Award in his back pocket, and he’ll be joined by a hopefully healthier Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco. Salazar recovered well enough to pitch in relief in that deciding game, and while Carrasco didn’t appear in the postseason after going down with a fracture in his pitching hand, he should be back up to speed next spring. Any of that trio could potentially lead a big league rotation, and they’ll be joined by Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin to round out the starting five for recently-extended manager Terry Francona.

With those five starters set to return and a promising young arm in Mike Clevinger also at the ready, Cleveland doesn’t need to make any notable starting pitching additions, though president of baseball ops Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff could still pick up a starter or two on a minor league deal (as most teams will do in the offseason). If Cleveland wants Clevinger to start in the minors rather than spend the 2017 season primarily in the bullpen, the team could pursue a swingman like Yusmeiro Petit, Dillon Gee or Bud Norris, though some of those names could be looked at as starting pitchers by other teams. Any of the bunch could step into the rotation should multiple injuries occur, and each would be an option for spot starts as well.

The bullpen will also remain largely intact, although adding a left-handed reliever is a logical step. Andrew Miller is the only southpaw locked into next year’s bullpen — Antonetti has said he has no plans to trade Miller this winter, much to the chagrin of bullpen-hungry teams around the league — and as dominant as he is, the Tribe probably prefers to have a couple of lefties back there. Ryan Merritt cemented his place in Cleveland lore with an ALCS spot start for the ages, and he could be an option if the Indians don’t feel like paying for an arm like Brett Cecil, Boone Logan, Jerry Blevins or Mike Dunn. The trade market will also bear myriad options of varying quality.

The rest of the ’pen should be largely set. Cody Allen will be back to close things out in the ninth, with Miller undoubtedly accumulating some save chances as well. Bryan Shaw is a lock to return, and he’ll be joined by Zach McAllister, Jeff Manship and Dan Otero in the right-handed setup corps. Each of those arms notched an ERA comfortably south of 4.00 (though Shaw and especially Manship had some shaky peripherals). In particular, Otero’s brilliant season may have flown under the radar — a waiver claim last winter, he logged an immaculate 1.53 ERA with 7.3 K/9, 1.3 BB/9 and a 62.3 percent ground-ball rate in 70 2/3 innings.

Cleveland’s position players offer less certainty than the pitchers due largely to Michael Brantley.  Improbably, the Tribe made their World Series run without any real contributions from the man who was a bona fide MVP candidate in 2014 and has been one of the team’s best players since 2012. Brantley had his second shoulder surgery in about a 10-month span back in August, and what he’ll be able to contribute next year is anyone’s guess.

The rest of the outfield, too, has some questions. Rajai Davis is a free agent after delivering a tremendous 2016 campaign on a one-year deal. Tyler Naquin broke out in a way that few expected possible, and while he got some Rookie of the Year love on the heels of a .296/.372/.514 batting line, he wilted in August and September (combined .234/.331/.331) and received virtually no playing time against lefties (40 plate appearances). Beyond that, his center field defense rated anywhere from below average (-5.1 UZR) to dismal (-17 DRS) depending on one’s metric of choice. He’d probably deliver better marks in a corner, but Brantley and Lonnie Chisenhall are also best suited for corner work.

Chisenhall bore a lot of similarities to Naquin, in fact, delivering very solid marks against right-handed pitching but playing cheerleader nearly every time a left-handed opponent was on the mound (Chisenhall had just 52 PAs against lefties). There hasn’t been any indication that he’ll be available in trades this winter, but with a $4.1MM projected salary and a skill set that seems redundant alongside Naquin, I can see Cleveland exploring the idea. Trade deadline acquisition Brandon Guyer provides a right-handed-hitting platoon complement in the corners.

Center field, then, seems like a potential area of upgrade with Davis hitting the open market. The team does have top prospect Bradley Zimmer in the upper minors, but his 30.7% strikeout rate between Double-A and Triple-A is a clear indicator that he still has some work to do. Brantley could also play center field, though as previously noted, it’s tough to rely on him for regular work. And there’s also Abraham Almonte, but he posted a .294 OBP last year after serving an 80-game PED suspension and doesn’t have a track record outside of what could have been a fluky 2015. With so many corner options but no sure thing in center, Cleveland could pursue a reunion with Davis, look to sign Jon Jay or go really big with a run at Dexter Fowler. The latter of those three scenarios is the least likely, as Cleveland already projects to have a franchise-record $113MM payroll and probably wouldn’t be keen on surrendering its top pick. But Fowler would be a clear upgrade, and the deal could be backloaded to stack more money up beyond the 2017 season — after which Santana, Shaw and the remainder of the money owed to Chris Johnson will be off the books.

As for the infield, it’s mostly set. Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor comprise one of the best double-play tandems on the planet and are controlled for years to come. Jose Ramirez broke out in 2016 and delivered a legitimate star-caliber performance with a .312/.363/.462 slash, 11 homers, 22 steals, and solid defense at multiple positions. Slotting him in as the everyday third baseman makes perfect sense, though Chernoff has said the team could move him around the field again in 2017. (I doubt center field is under consideration, but if they feel Ramirez can handle it defensively, his bat would be an outstanding fit for the position.)

Mike Napoli

First base is the true question in the Cleveland infield. Indians fans were more than happy to “Party at Napoli’s” all season long, and the resurgent slugger swatted 34 big flies on what turned out to be a bargain one-year commitment. Napoli’s defense and baserunning drew negative reviews, though, and he could command a two-year deal at nearly double the annual rate at which he played in 2016. That could prove to be too rich for the Indians even on the heels of a World Series windfall. The free agent market sports alternatives, though very few that hit right-handed. Steve Pearce offers a potential 25+ homer righty bat at a cheaper rate, though he’s coming off forearm surgery and has a recovery timeline that runs right up to Spring Training. Cheaper right-handed trade options that could be plugged in at first base include C.J. Cron and Chris Carter.

Looking behind the plate, Yan Gomes will be back and hope to bounce back from the pair of terrible seasons he’s recorded in years two and three of his six-year contract extension. If he’s not able to rebound, he can team with young Roberto Perez to at least form a premium defensive catching contingent. However, adding some catching help on a minor league deal might make sense for Cleveland.

With Perez, Guyer, and another outfielder on the bench, a utility infielder is the other potential addition for Antonetti and company. The team could simply stick with Michael Martinez for that role since he’ll make scarcely more than the league minimum in arbitration, but Cleveland should add someone with more of a track record. Ramirez’s ability to play shortstop means that the final bench piece needn’t be shortstop-capable, though that would certainly be a plus. Veteran right-handed bats that could fit well include Aaron Hill, Andres Blanco, Adam Rosales and the switch-hitting Erick Aybar, in addition to potential trade candidates, of course.

With a relatively small amount of areas to augment the current roster, Cleveland could focus some of its offseason efforts on extensions for core players. Certainly, Lindor should top the team’s wishlist, though his already impressive track record would make it a pricey proposition. Given the level of excellence he’s already displayed, he has a case to top Andrelton Simmons’ seven-year, $58MM contract, which currently stands as the largest contract extension ever signed by a player with between one and two years of Major League service time. Indeed, with over 10 WAR on his record through just 257 MLB games, Lindor could reasonably hold out for a deal that truly re-sets the bar. Beyond Lindor, Ramirez and Salazar also stand out as possible extension candidates, though Salazar is already going to earn a projected $3.8MM next season, so his level of urgency to sign a long-term deal isn’t as great as it would’ve been a year ago.

The 2016 campaign brought both elation and anguish for Tribe fans, but with the bulk of the team set to return and a full season of Andrew Miller on the horizon, they should be firmly in contention again next year. The AL Central hardly looks like a powerhouse: the Tigers and Royals may shed payroll while the White Sox have hinted at shifting to a longer-term focus and the Twins are looking to find their footing under a new front office. A repeat division crown doesn’t just seem plausible — it’ll probably be the expectation heading into 2017.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

The Dodgers have the highest payroll in baseball and some big holes to fill on their roster. They also have the necessary financial resources to retain their own free agents and bid competitively for the top players on the free agent market. And, if they choose to explore the trade market, they have the elite young talent necessary to acquire an impact player or two. At the very least, the Hot Stove talk surrounding this team will be very interesting this offseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Clayton Kershaw, SP: $139.3MM through 2020. Kershaw can opt out after the 2018 World Series.
  • Adrian Gonzalez, 1B: $44.7MM through 2018.
  • Scott Kazmir, SP: $35.3MM through 2018.
  • Brandon McCarthy, SP: $23MM through 2018.
  • Kenta Maeda, SP: $21MM through 2023.
  • Andre Ethier, OF: $20MM through 2017. Contract includes a $17.5MM club option in 2018 with a $2.5MM buyout.
  • Yasiel Puig, OF: $17.4MM through 2018. Puig can opt in to arbitration during the 2016 offseason. He is on pace to become a free agent after the 2019 season.
  • Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP: $15.6MM through 2018.

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Other Financial Commitments

  • Yaisel Sierra, SP: Owed $28MM through 2021 (removed from 40-man roster in 2016)
  • Carl Crawford, OF: Owed $21.8MM through 2017 (released in 2016)
  • Hector Olivera, OF: Owed $18.7MM through 2020 (traded in 2015)
  • Erisbel Arruebarrena, SS: Owed $12MM through 2018 (removed from 40-man roster during 2015-16 offseason)
  • Matt Kemp, OF: Owed $10.5MM through 2019 (traded during 2014-15 offseason)
  • Alex Guerrero, IF/OF: Owed $7.5MM through 2017 (released in 2016)
  • Dian Toscano, OF: Owed $3.6MM through 2018 (removed from 40-man roster during 2015-16 offseason)

Free Agents

Los Angeles Dodgers Depth Chart; Los Angeles Dodgers Payroll Information

Andrew Friedman (President of Baseball Operations) and Farhan Zaidi (general manager) have maintained a conservative approach in free agency since taking over prior to the 2014-15 offseason, focusing on building a team that can compete year in and year out as opposed to a high risk “win-now” approach. Four consecutive division titles says that they’re on the right track. But they’ve also been knocked out of the playoffs in each of those seasons and haven’t been to the World Series since 1988 while the division-rival Giants have won three World Series championships since 2010. The Dodgers are also in danger of losing two players who have been integral to the team’s recent success.

Third baseman Justin Turner and closer Kenley Jansen, who rank No. 4 and 5, respectively, in our Free Agent Power Rankings, would not be easy to replace if they were to sign elsewhere. There are no internal options ready to step in. Luis Valbuena is the only other free agent who can be viewed as a starting third base option. There are two other elite closers—Aroldis Chapman and Mark Melancon—but as many as four other teams (Cubs, Giants, Nationals, Yankees) are expected to pursue them.

If Turner does not re-sign, the Dodgers could be scrambling to find his replacement. Despite entering his age-32 season, he’s in line for a huge payday after slashing .296/.364/.492 while playing terrific defense at the hot corner in his three seasons with the Dodgers. While he’d certainly be an upgrade for many teams around the league, there doesn’t appear to be a team that comes remotely close to the Dodgers in terms of need and payroll flexibility. MLBTR has predicted that he’ll return on a five-year, $85MM deal.

Even if they can hang on to Turner, who struggled badly against lefties in 2016, adding another right-handed hitter to balance out a left-handed heavy lineup would seem to be a priority. The heart of the order includes lefties Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez and Joc Pederson. Switch-hitter Yasmani Grandal is a better hitter with much more power from the left-hand side. Darin Ruf, acquired from the Phillies in the Howie Kendrick trade, has a .921 OPS in 321 career plate appearances against left-handed pitchers, although he’ll likely be relegated mostly to pinch-hitting duty.

In addition to third base, the Dodgers could possibly be searching for a new second baseman. Enrique Hernandez, Micah Johnson and Chris Taylor represent internal options, but the team could pursue a reunion with Chase Utley or explore the trade market. Los Angeles may also look at adding a corner outfielder if they’re still ready to move on from Yasiel Puig and/or are not comfortable going with some combination of Andre Ethier, Trayce Thompson, Scott Van Slyke and Andrew Toles at the other corner.

Brian Dozier and Ian Kinsler, both under team control through 2018, are logical trade targets. By acquiring a leadoff hitter who plays second base and crushes left-handed pitching, the Dodgers would be able to check off three boxes on their offseason shopping list. Yoenis Cespedes, as MLBTR has predicted, would be the biggest splash possible in free agency, while Ian Desmond and Dexter Fowler are others who are capable of making a big impact while filling multiple needs.

Puig will once again be one of the more interesting names being thrown around in trade rumors, although it wouldn’t be a big surprise if he stayed put. After being sent to Triple-A Oklahoma City for the entire month of August, the 25-year-old returned to post a .900 OPS over his final 65 plate appearances. Zaidi recently expressed that Puig did everything asked of him after the demotion and that the organization felt “really good about where he is”.

While his comments could be posturing in an attempt to boost Puig’s trade value, Zaidi might not want to trade the team’s most productive hitter against left-handed pitching. Puig’s .784 OPS versus lefties was best on a team that was, by far, the worst in baseball against them (.622 OPS).

Starting pitching depth does not appear to be a problem, but adding a legitimate frontline starter to pair with Clayton Kershaw could conceivably be in the Dodgers’ plans. Re-signing Rich Hill, who has pitched like an ace in 24 starts since September 2015, would likely suffice, but the expected bidding war could push his asking price well above what any team should feel comfortable giving a soon-to-be 37-year-old with a checkered injury history. They could also swing a trade to bolster their rotation. Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana and Chris Archer are amongs the most notable starting pitchers who might be available this offseason.

There is no shortage of candidates to compete for a rotation spot after Kershaw, Kenta Maeda, Scott Kazmir and, potentially, Hill or another acquisition. Julio Urias will have the edge after posting a 1.99 ERA in the 2nd half while Brandon McCarthy, Alex Wood, Jose De Leon, Ross Stripling and Brock Stewart could also be in the mix, as might Hyun-jin Ryu if he can ever get healthy.

Whether or not Los Angeles will beat the market for a top relief arm remains to be seen. The current front office has not invested big dollars in the pen as yet, but it could be that Jansen will represent a special case. And the organization is said to have interest in Chapman, who was nearly acquired last winter before news emerged of a domestic violence incident. There are a variety of trade possibilities, too, but the Dodgers can’t be counted out to pursue a creative option — even one that spurns a typical closer role.

Closer’s job aside, the Dodgers’ bullpen could remain mostly intact. Luis Avilan, Pedro Baez, Grant Dayton, Josh Fields and Josh Ravin were all very good in the second half as the Dodgers pulled away in the NL West. A few of the aforementioned starting candidates, particularly Wood, have the potential to fill bullpen roles. While it’s unlikely to happen from the onset of the 2017 season, Urias and De Leon have the ability to dominate out of the ’pen. Middle and late-inning relief is not expected to be a priority unless, for some reason, they are unable to acquire a closer and are forced to fill the role internally.

Between Avilan, Dayton (2.05 ERA, 4.8 H/9, 2.1 BB/9, 13.3 K/9 in 25 appearances), Adam Liberatore (0.55 ERA, 10 holds in his first 42 appearances before an elbow injury derailed his season), newly-acquired Vidal Nuño and Wood, the Dodgers aren’t short on reliable lefty options for manager Dave Roberts. Baez, despite being a painfully slow worker, is capable of stepping into free agent Joe Blanton’s eighth inning setup role. Yimi Garcia, who was terrific as a rookie in 2015 before missing most of last season with biceps and knee injuries, could also factor into the mix.

After the 2018 season, the only guaranteed contracts remaining on L.A.’s books belong to Kershaw ($34.5MM in ’19 and $33.5MM in ’20), if he doesn’t exercise his opt-out clause, and Maeda ($3MM per season through ’23). Even if their inability to advance to the World Series, the success of their biggest rival and the potential loss of Jansen and Turner hasn’t changed their thinking on how they’d like to operate, it’s clear that the Dodgers have a whole lot of financial flexibility in the near future. Not only can they begin to explore contract extensions for young stars Grandal, Pederson and Seager, they are set up to make a huge splash this offseason.

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Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

After a promising 2015 season that led many to believe the Twins’ lengthy stay in the AL Central cellar had reached its conclusion, nearly everything that could go wrong for Minnesota did in 2016. The Twins lost 103 games, prompting baseball’s most loyal ownership group to move on from GM Terry Ryan along the way. A new front office regime will look to guide the team back to prominence in the AL Central.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

Other Financial Commitments

  • Ricky Nolasco: $5MM paid to Angels through 2019 ($4MM for 2018 salary plus $1MM buyout of 2019 option)

Twins depth chart; Twins payroll information

The decision to move on from Terry Ryan was a fairly stunning development for the Twins this summer, as Ryan was one of just three general managers that the notoriously loyal Twins had employed dating back to 1985. Minnesota has been perceived as one of the most traditional organizations in the game, which made the hiring of 33-year-old Derek Falvey as the team’s new top baseball executive a significant departure from the status quo. Joining Falvey will be longtime Rangers assistant GM Thad Levine, who’ll receive a titular promotion to GM but still serve as second in command in his new organization. They’ll be complemented by longtime Twins AGM Rob Antony, who served as interim GM following Ryan’s departure but will return to his previous post following the new hires. At their introductory press conference, Falvey and Levine spoke about building out the club’s analytics department as well as the entire front office staff.

There are any number of issues facing the Twins’ new leadership team, though they won’t need to find a manager, as Paul Molitor will return for his third year on the job at the behest of owner Jim Pohlad. The Twins will be looking for a new hitting coach, though, after firing Tom Brunansky from that role earlier this week.

Beyond that, the first order of business will be to determine whether the club needs to embark on a total reset and further prolong what has already been a lengthy residence in the American League Central cellar (minus a one-year flirtation with a Wild Card spot in 2015). Falvey, perhaps unsurprisingly, didn’t commit to a clear direction during his introduction to the Twin Cities, instead speaking somewhat vaguely about a desire to deliver a “championship-caliber” baseball team, focusing on the long-term health of the organization and keeping an open mind to all scenarios.

Reading between the lines a bit, Falvey did praise the work that the previous regime had done in compiling a nice core of young talent on the position-player side of the spectrum, implying what anyone who has followed the Twins even remotely already knew: the pitching staff is in need of a major overhaul. Outside of Ervin Santana, Minnesota’s rotation is rife with uncertainty.

Former first-round pick Kyle Gibson took a marked step back in 2016 and dealt with shoulder injuries. Phil Hughes underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery this summer and hasn’t looked anywhere close to his 2014 breakout in either of the past two seasons. Hector Santiago was acquired to be an upgrade over Ricky Nolasco, but he regressed immediately upon joining the club and posted a 5.58 ERA in 61 innings with the Twins. Young right-hander Jose Berrios, lauded as a top 25 prospect by most pundits, was shelled for an 8.02 ERA in 58 innings, and sophomore Tyler Duffey followed up a terrific rookie effort with a 6.43 ERA in 133 innings (albeit with considerably more promising peripherals).

In the bullpen, Glen Perkins made just two appearances before a shoulder injury ended his season, while starter-turned-setup-man Trevor May dealt with back problems and turned in a poor season of his own after showing great promise in 2015. Veteran setup man Kevin Jepsen pitched so poorly that the Twins released him. Hard-throwing relief prospects J.T. Chargois and Pat Light (acquired from Boston this summer) both struggled in the Majors. Rookie left-hander Taylor Rogers was a bright spot all year, though he wilted in September.

Whatever course the Twins set this offseason, it’s clear that some rotation additions are needed. The team does have another MLB-ready arm at Triple-A in the form of Adalberto Mejia (acquired from the Giants in the Eduardo Nunez trade), while 2014 first-rounder Tyler Jay and 2013 fourth-rounder Stephen Gonsalves had nice years in the minors. But given the rampant uncertainty that permeates their staff, the Twins need additional innings. It wouldn’t be prudent for Minnesota to ink one of the top starters and allocate tens of millions of dollars at mid-rotation arms as they so frequently did in recent offseasons, so look for lower-cost alternatives. Left-hander Derek Holland saw his option declined by the Rangers and is obviously a very known commodity to new GM Thad Levine, for instance, as is right-hander Colby Lewis (in whom the Twins had interest when he was first returning to MLB from Japan).

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Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

The impossible has happened.  The Cubs won the World Series.  Millions of Cubs fans are now contemplating something their parents and grandparents never could: a potential dynasty.  While Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer, and the rest of the Cubs’ front office have a free pass for life in Chicago, they’re already plotting an encore.  What’s next for the Cubs?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jon Lester, SP: $90MM through 2020.  Includes $25MM mutual option for 2021 with a $10MM buyout.  2021 option becomes guaranteed with 200 innings in 2020 or 400 innings in 2019-20.
  • Jason Heyward, RF: $149MM through 2023.  Heyward can opt out of contract after 2018 season or after 2019 season with 550 plate appearances in 2019.
  • John Lackey, SP: $12.5MM through 2017.
  • Miguel Montero, C: $14MM through 2017.
  • Ben Zobrist, OF/2B: $44MM through 2019.
  • Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $27MM through 2019.  Includes $14.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout for 2020 and an identical club option for 2021.  2019 salaries can increase based on MVP finishes.  Rizzo can void 2021 option with top two finish in 2017-19 MVP voting and subsequent trade.
  • Jorge Soler, OF: $15MM through 2020.  Can opt into arbitration after 2017 season.

Contract Options

  • Jason Hammel, SP: Cubs chose $2MM buyout over $12MM club option.
  • Dexter Fowler, CF: Fowler declined his part of $9MM mutual option, triggering $5MM buyout.

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; link to MLBTR projections)

Free Agents

The 2016 Cubs had the best starting rotation in baseball by a long shot, and they had the rare ability to bring back the exact same group for 2017: Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, John Lackey, and Jason Hammel.  Instead, Epstein kicked off the offseason with a surprising move that won’t go unnoticed by future free agents.  The Cubs declined their option on Hammel, who posted a 3.79 ERA over two seasons for the club.  The 34-year-old might have profiled as the best fifth starter in baseball.  The Cubs feel they can do better, and didn’t feel the need to exercise the option and trade Hammel, which could have brought a low-level prospect in return.  Epstein said in a statement, “Our hope is that by giving a starting opportunity to some younger pitchers under multiple years of club control, we can unearth a starter who will help us not only in 2017 but also in 2018 and beyond.”

One internal possibility is Mike Montgomery, the 27-year-old lefty the Cubs acquired from the Mariners in a July trade.  Montgomery pitched well in his five starts for the Cubs, though his control remains an issue.  Montgomery also made the short list of Joe Maddon’s trusted relievers as the team continued through the playoffs.  Moving him to the rotation is a viable option, though it would open up a hole in the bullpen.  Southpaw Rob Zastryzny, the Cubs’ second round draft pick in 2013, is another rotation option.  However, with a 4.31 ERA across 23 starts at Double and Triple-A this year, Zastryzny would seem a clear downgrade from Hammel.

The free agent market for starting pitching is historically weak.  The only pitcher clearly better than Hammel is former Cub Rich Hill, a brittle lefty who turns 37 in March and would hardly fit Epstein’s search for a younger starter.  That brings us to the trade market.  Possible candidates include Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray, and Shelby Miller, all of whom are controllable for multiple years.  The potential prizes of the market are Sale and Quintana, but the White Sox could be reluctant to send one of their aces across town. The Cubs have plenty of position players they might consider trading, including Jorge Soler on the Major League side and prospects such as Ian Happ, Eloy Jimenez, Jeimer Candelario, and Mark Zagunis.  The Cubs already spent a few pieces from their stash this summer, trading Gleyber Torres to get Aroldis Chapman and Dan Vogelbach to get Montgomery.

The Chicago bullpen will require serious work this winter.  Though Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop handled the late innings ably for much of the season for the Cubs, Joe Maddon seemed to lose faith in them as the playoffs wore on.  With combined arbitration salaries over $11MM, I can see the Cubs trading one of them.  Justin Grimm is more affordable, and despite some issues with free passes, he’s worth keeping around.  Carl Edwards Jr. is locked in as one of the Cubs’ more trusted relievers.  Montgomery will certainly have a spot if he doesn’t land in the rotation.  Travis Wood may leave for greener pastures (and a rotation job) as a free agent, while Trevor Cahill and Joe Smith did not make the playoff roster and will likely be allowed to sign elsewhere.

It is difficult to picture a team as stacked with talent and flush with money as the Cubs, coming off a World Championship, not striving for a relief ace.  The free agent market happens to offer two of them, Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen.  However, as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports pointed out recently, signing Chapman or Jansen to a five-year deal in the $80-90MM range doesn’t fit with Epstein’s history.  And Cubs GM Jed Hoyer recently expounded on “trying to be creative in finding bullpen pieces,” perhaps discovering the next Andrew Miller or Wade Davis.  Andrew Cashner, anyone?

While the Cubs could turn to the trade market for a dominant reliever, options are limited.  The Orioles’ Zach Britton or the Royals’ Kelvin Herrera would be excellent two-year additions, but they are not known to be available.  Davis, a potential one-year pickup from Kansas City, battled a flexor strain in his elbow this summer.  Barring availability of the Indians’ Andrew Miller, I don’t see any other established top relievers the Cubs could pursue.  Rather than bring in a lesser closer, they could just try to get Rondon back on track, as he had an excellent season before an August triceps injury.  We also must consider Epstein’s ability to think outside the box, as he did in trading for Montgomery.  If the Cubs’ front office is big on a Tyler Thornburg, Nate Jones, or Alex Colome, they could use their position player depth to pry one of them loose.   Regardless of the closer situation, the Cubs may do well to add another lefty reliever to the mix, with free agent options such as Brett Cecil, Boone Logan, Jerry Blevins, and Mike Dunn.

On the position player side, the Cubs have an embarrassment of riches.  Behind the plate, 24-year-old Willson Contreras will be the starter after a strong rookie debut.  Given his salary, the Cubs will likely go with Miguel Montero as the backup catcher replacement for the retiring David Ross.  However, Maddon and Montero will have to clear the air after the catcher expressed discontent with the manager’s communication about his usage in the playoffs.  It’s also not clear whether Montero can fill Ross’ role, particularly in regard to countering the large leadoffs baserunners are able to take on Jon Lester due to the lefty’s inability to make pickoff throws.  Since Contreras is only 24, it may be possible for the Cubs to lean on him for 130-140 games while reducing the role of the backup and ending the idea of Lester having a personal catcher.

The infield corners are locked down with one of the best duos in baseball, Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant.  Bryant, a third baseman by trade, also logged innings at the outfield corners and first base this year.  If the playoffs are any indication, Javier Baez has taken over the Cubs’ regular second base job from Ben Zobrist.  Addison Russell is locked in at shortstop.

The Cubs’ outfield machinations will be interesting to watch.  Fowler did an excellent job as the Cubs’ center fielder and sparkplug leadoff man over the last two seasons, and the team could easily afford to sign him long-term.  But doing so would only exacerbate the outfield logjam, so they may have to let him go.  In that case, the Cubs have two options to fill center field.  One is Albert Almora, a 22-year-old who was the Cubs’ first-round draft pick in 2012.  As a contact hitter who rarely walks and only has a touch of power, Almora would be an offensive downgrade compared to Fowler.  On the other hand, he can make up some of that gap with superior glovework.  The other center field option is Jason Heyward, who has seven years remaining on his contract.  Heyward was slated for center field when the Cubs originally signed him, so it’s a possibility despite his limited exposure at the position.  He did just win a Gold Glove as a right fielder.  However, after a disastrous year at the plate, Heyward will spent the winter working on his swing, and the Cubs may not want to ask him to change positions as well.

Will Heyward’s massive contract lock him into a starting job for most of 2017, as it did this year?  I expect the 27-year-old to break camp as a lineup regular, but Maddon did show a willingness to bench Heyward in the playoffs.  Look for a shorter leash in Heyward’s second Cubs season.  Zobrist, also signed as a free agent in the 2015-16 offseason, remains slated for regular playing time.  He began 2016 as the Cubs’ regular second baseman, but the emergence of Baez has pushed him to left field.

So a Zobrist-Almora-Heyward alignment seems pretty good, right?  The “problem” is that the Cubs also have one of the game’s best young hitters, Kyle Schwarber.  Schwarber, 24 in March, made a surprisingly fast recovery from his early-season torn ACL and LCL, serving as the Cubs’ designated hitter in the World Series.  Can Schwarber catch again, alleviating some of the outfield logjam?  Even Hoyer doesn’t seem to have the answer yet, plus there’s just not a big need for him behind the dish.  Save for 10 interleague games in American League parks, Schwarber will need to get most of his playing time as the Cubs’ left fielder.  The need to get Schwarber into the lineup creates urgency for Heyward to bounce back offensively, as Zobrist could wind up in right field when Schwarber plays.

If the Cubs will have to do some juggling to get Schwarber, Heyward, and Zobrist enough at-bats, they’ll really have a problem finding room for Jorge Soler.  Soler, 25 in February, is the Cubs’ most obvious piece of trade bait.  The Cubs control Soler for the next four seasons.  In 765 career plate-appearances, he’s hitting .258/.328/.434.  In 86 games this year, Soler showed increased power and patience at the plate, but he’s still only a slightly above average hitter.  He’s also pretty clearly a below-average defender and has been injury-prone in his career.  Nonetheless, Soler’s ceiling may still tantalize some teams, as the former top prospect’s bat still has All-Star potential.  In potential trades with the Rays, White Sox, Phillies, and others, the Cubs could attempt to acquire a controllable starting pitcher and/or reliever for a package centered around Soler.

Once free agency starts to die down in the new year, the Cubs may want to look into a few contract extension opportunities.  Hendricks and Schwarber could be candidates.  Bryant and Russell would certainly be of interest, though they’re represented by Scott Boras.  There’s also the looming free agency of Arrieta, who turns 31 in March.  The 2015 Cy Young winner picked up where he left off in 2016, posting a 1.74 ERA through his first 14 starts.  Even in that period, however, his command had begun to falter, and in the 126 2/3 innings that followed (including the playoffs), Arrieta posted a 4.19 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, and 1.14 HR/9.  That performance is more in line with a Matt Moore, Ian Kennedy, or Trevor Bauer.  Good, but not $30MM per year good.  With a potential $105MM owed to Lester through 2021, a mega-deal for Arrieta looks a lot less appealing than it did a year ago.  After 2017, Arrieta may be joined in free agency by Yu Darvish, Johnny Cueto, Danny Duffy, Masahiro Tanaka, and others, so it’s quite possible the Cubs explore alternatives.

The Cubs had baseball’s best group of position players in 2016.  Even if they subtract Fowler and Soler, full seasons from Schwarber, Baez, and Contreras, plus some level of bounceback from Heyward, might result in an even stronger group in 2017.  Likewise, the Cubs are looking to improve upon an already-strong starting rotation.  While the bullpen needs significant retooling, the Cubs project to have a good $25MM+ in the war chest to spend on new player salaries for 2017.  The team is in an incredible position for years to come, suggesting 2016 was just the beginning.

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

It turns out an even year had nothing to do with the Giants winning a World Championship. The secret formula all along had been a combination of great starting pitching, timely hitting and a reliable bullpen. While they did win 87 games and clinch a Wild Card berth before losing to the Cubs in the NLDS, it was clear that the “reliable bullpen” portion was a missing ingredient in 2016.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Buster Posey, C: $110MM through 2021. Contract includes a $22MM club option in 2022 with a $3MM buyout.
  • Johnny Cueto, SP: $115MM through 2021. Cueto can opt out after the 2017 World Series. Contract includes a $22MM club option in 2022 with a $5MM buyout.
  • Brandon Belt, 1B: $72.8MM through 2021.
  • Brandon Crawford, SS: $69MM through 2021.
  • Jeff Samardzija, SP: $79.2MM through 2020.
  • Hunter Pence, OF: $37MM through 2018.
  • Denard Span, OF: $28MM through 2018. Contract includes a $12MM mutual option in 2019 with a $4MM buyout.
  • Matt Cain, SP: $28.1MM through 2017. Contract includes a $21MM club option in 2018 with a $7.5MM buyout.
  • Madison Bumgarner, SP: $13MM through 2017. Contract includes a $12MM club option in 2018 with a $1.5MM buyout and a $12MM club option in 2019.
  • Matt Moore, SP: $8.75MM through 2017. Contract includes a $9MM club option in 2018 with a $1MM buyout and a $10MM club option in 2019 with a $750K buyout.

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

San Francisco Giants Depth Chart; San Francisco Giants Payroll Information

The Giants’ offseason needs are pretty obvious. Closer is priority number one. Left field, although not nearly as urgent, would be the other void that general manager Bobby Evans will likely fill this offseason. Other than that, they’re still in very good shape.

Future Hall of Famer Bruce Bochy is entering his 23rd season as a Major League manager—2017 will be his 11th season with the Giants—and closing in on 1800 regular season victories to go along with his three World Series titles and four National League Championships. He’ll lead a group of talented players with a ton of playoff experience and still in the prime of their career.

The starting rotation remains the strength of their roster. Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto might form the best 1-2 punch in baseball. Jeff Samardzija gave the team over 200 quality innings in year one of his five-year, $90MM contract. Matt Moore was very good after he was acquired on August 1st, especially when it counted the most. The 27-year-old lefty was dominant over his last three starts (23.2 IP, 3 ER, 11 H, 4 BB, 27 K), including Game Four of the NLDS.

Matt Cain should get the first shot at filling the No. 5 spot in the rotation, mostly because he’s making close to $21MM in 2017. The three-time All-Star, who averaged 32 starts from 2006-2013, has been on the disabled list more often than not over the past three seasons. When healthy enough to take the mound, he’s nowhere near as effective as he once was. While the walk and strikeout rates haven’t changed much, his WHIP and ERA have skyrocketed. It’s unclear how much the injuries have to do with his decline and whether he can bounce back at age 32. Fortunately, the Giants have plenty of depth and several young candidates who could step in if necessary.

Chris Heston, who missed most of 2016 with an oblique injury after an impressive rookie season, could be Cain’s top competitor. Clayton Blackburn, Ty Blach and Chris Stratton have nothing left to prove at the Triple-A level and figure to get a long look in Spring Training. None of the three, as is the case with Heston, has more than mid-rotation potential, but won’t be asked to be more than a No. 5 in the Giants’ rotation.

Top pitching prospect Tyler Beede, the 14th pick in the 2014 draft, could also force himself into the picture after posting a 2.81 ERA with 3.2 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 24 Double-A starts in 2016. Former Marlins ace Josh Johnson, who hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2013 because of injuries and will turn 33 in January, will also be in MLB camp.

Despite the struggles of the bullpen in 2016, the group of pitchers expected to bridge the gap to the yet-to-be-acquired closer can be quite good. Lefty Will Smith, another August 1st trade acquisition, is one of the top lefty setup men in the league, though he wasn’t necessarily treated that way upon arriving in San Francisco. Fellow lefty Steven Okert has the potential to be one of the best rookie relievers in 2017. Derek Law and Hunter Strickland, while not able to step in and solidify the closer role once Santiago Casilla floundered late in 2016, were still very good overall and should be more than adequate in late-inning setup roles. George Kontos has a 2.49 ERA in 154 relief appearances over the past three seasons and the versatile Albert Suarez should also contribute.

With three of the best closers in baseball available on the free agent market, the Giants are expected to pounce on one as quickly as possible. However, they’ll have to outbid several teams that also have a need at the closer position. The Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Nationals and Yankees could all make aggressive bids for Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon. Even if the closer market is limited to those six teams — which is no sure thing with other organizations possibly looking to bolster their pens –three of them will be left to choose between Greg Holland, who is returning from Tommy John surgery, and a long list of much less appealing former closers, including Jonathan Papelbon, Fernando Rodney and Koji Uehara. Jeremy Jeffress, who was an effective closer for the Brewers before a mid-season trade to the Rangers, is a potential trade candidate. The Orioles and Royals could also shop their respective closers, Zach Britton and Wade Davis, albeit with lofty price tags that would likely scare off any suitors that weren’t absolutely desperate.

The 2017 Opening Day lineup will look a lot like the 2016 version—Denard Span, Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Brandon Crawford and Joe Panik are all penciled into starting spots once again—aside from a new third baseman and, unless Pagan is re-signed, a new left fielder.

Late-season hero Conor Gillaspie, who went 7-for-14 with a homer and two doubles in his last five regular season games and 8-for-19 in the post-season, including a game-winning homer in the Giants’ Wild Card game victory, probably did enough to put him in the mix at third base in 2017. Eduardo Nuñez, an All-Star in 2016 before he was acquired from the Twins in late July, could prove to be the better option, though. Regardless of whether he wins the starting job at third base, his speed (40 SB), power (16 HR) and versatility (he can play 2B, 3B, SS, LF and RF) will ensure he’s in the lineup on a regular basis.

A platoon in left field with Jarrett Parker (.942 OPS in 151 career plate appearances versus right-handed pitchers) and either Gorkys Hernandez or Mac Williamson isn’t out of the question, but there are several proven options on the free agent market that the Giants could sign.

If the Giants are willing to pay top dollar and significantly increase their payroll, Yoenis Cespedes could be on their radar. The cost of finding a good closer likely decreases those chances, though, which would make Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler and Josh Reddick more likely targets. If the plan is to not increase their payroll significantly, Jon Jay or Matt Joyce could be more cost-efficient options, as would bringing back free agent Angel Pagan. The trade market should also present some options with Jorge Soler one of the notable players expected to be shopped.

Keeping this veteran core of talent together isn’t cheap. Even with the salaries of Casilla, Javier Lopez, Jake Peavy, Sergio Romo and Pagan coming off the books, the Giants are projected to be very close to the 2016 payroll total before making a move. My current projection has them around $170MM, the fifth highest total in baseball. Signing one of the top free agents this offseason would require either a payroll increase, creative contract structuring or a trade. If Evans can make it happen, though, the Giants will enter the 2017 season with one of the most talented and well-balanced rosters in the league.

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