Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Originals

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

By | at

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

It turns out an even year had nothing to do with the Giants winning a World Championship. The secret formula all along had been a combination of great starting pitching, timely hitting and a reliable bullpen. While they did win 87 games and clinch a Wild Card berth before losing to the Cubs in the NLDS, it was clear that the “reliable bullpen” portion was a missing ingredient in 2016.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Buster Posey, C: $110MM through 2021. Contract includes a $22MM club option in 2022 with a $3MM buyout.
  • Johnny Cueto, SP: $115MM through 2021. Cueto can opt out after the 2017 World Series. Contract includes a $22MM club option in 2022 with a $5MM buyout.
  • Brandon Belt, 1B: $72.8MM through 2021.
  • Brandon Crawford, SS: $69MM through 2021.
  • Jeff Samardzija, SP: $79.2MM through 2020.
  • Hunter Pence, OF: $37MM through 2018.
  • Denard Span, OF: $28MM through 2018. Contract includes a $12MM mutual option in 2019 with a $4MM buyout.
  • Matt Cain, SP: $28.1MM through 2017. Contract includes a $21MM club option in 2018 with a $7.5MM buyout.
  • Madison Bumgarner, SP: $13MM through 2017. Contract includes a $12MM club option in 2018 with a $1.5MM buyout and a $12MM club option in 2019.
  • Matt Moore, SP: $8.75MM through 2017. Contract includes a $9MM club option in 2018 with a $1MM buyout and a $10MM club option in 2019 with a $750K buyout.

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

San Francisco Giants Depth Chart; San Francisco Giants Payroll Information

The Giants’ offseason needs are pretty obvious. Closer is priority number one. Left field, although not nearly as urgent, would be the other void that general manager Bobby Evans will likely fill this offseason. Other than that, they’re still in very good shape.

Future Hall of Famer Bruce Bochy is entering his 23rd season as a Major League manager—2017 will be his 11th season with the Giants—and closing in on 1800 regular season victories to go along with his three World Series titles and four National League Championships. He’ll lead a group of talented players with a ton of playoff experience and still in the prime of their career.

The starting rotation remains the strength of their roster. Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto might form the best 1-2 punch in baseball. Jeff Samardzija gave the team over 200 quality innings in year one of his five-year, $90MM contract. Matt Moore was very good after he was acquired on August 1st, especially when it counted the most. The 27-year-old lefty was dominant over his last three starts (23.2 IP, 3 ER, 11 H, 4 BB, 27 K), including Game Four of the NLDS.

Matt Cain should get the first shot at filling the No. 5 spot in the rotation, mostly because he’s making close to $21MM in 2017. The three-time All-Star, who averaged 32 starts from 2006-2013, has been on the disabled list more often than not over the past three seasons. When healthy enough to take the mound, he’s nowhere near as effective as he once was. While the walk and strikeout rates haven’t changed much, his WHIP and ERA have skyrocketed. It’s unclear how much the injuries have to do with his decline and whether he can bounce back at age 32. Fortunately, the Giants have plenty of depth and several young candidates who could step in if necessary.

Chris Heston, who missed most of 2016 with an oblique injury after an impressive rookie season, could be Cain’s top competitor. Clayton Blackburn, Ty Blach and Chris Stratton have nothing left to prove at the Triple-A level and figure to get a long look in Spring Training. None of the three, as is the case with Heston, has more than mid-rotation potential, but won’t be asked to be more than a No. 5 in the Giants’ rotation.

Top pitching prospect Tyler Beede, the 14th pick in the 2014 draft, could also force himself into the picture after posting a 2.81 ERA with 3.2 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 24 Double-A starts in 2016. Former Marlins ace Josh Johnson, who hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2013 because of injuries and will turn 33 in January, will also be in MLB camp.

Despite the struggles of the bullpen in 2016, the group of pitchers expected to bridge the gap to the yet-to-be-acquired closer can be quite good. Lefty Will Smith, another August 1st trade acquisition, is one of the top lefty setup men in the league, though he wasn’t necessarily treated that way upon arriving in San Francisco. Fellow lefty Steven Okert has the potential to be one of the best rookie relievers in 2017. Derek Law and Hunter Strickland, while not able to step in and solidify the closer role once Santiago Casilla floundered late in 2016, were still very good overall and should be more than adequate in late-inning setup roles. George Kontos has a 2.49 ERA in 154 relief appearances over the past three seasons and the versatile Albert Suarez should also contribute.

With three of the best closers in baseball available on the free agent market, the Giants are expected to pounce on one as quickly as possible. However, they’ll have to outbid several teams that also have a need at the closer position. The Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Nationals and Yankees could all make aggressive bids for Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon. Even if the closer market is limited to those six teams — which is no sure thing with other organizations possibly looking to bolster their pens –three of them will be left to choose between Greg Holland, who is returning from Tommy John surgery, and a long list of much less appealing former closers, including Jonathan Papelbon, Fernando Rodney and Koji Uehara. Jeremy Jeffress, who was an effective closer for the Brewers before a mid-season trade to the Rangers, is a potential trade candidate. The Orioles and Royals could also shop their respective closers, Zach Britton and Wade Davis, albeit with lofty price tags that would likely scare off any suitors that weren’t absolutely desperate.

The 2017 Opening Day lineup will look a lot like the 2016 version—Denard Span, Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Brandon Crawford and Joe Panik are all penciled into starting spots once again—aside from a new third baseman and, unless Pagan is re-signed, a new left fielder.

Late-season hero Conor Gillaspie, who went 7-for-14 with a homer and two doubles in his last five regular season games and 8-for-19 in the post-season, including a game-winning homer in the Giants’ Wild Card game victory, probably did enough to put him in the mix at third base in 2017. Eduardo Nuñez, an All-Star in 2016 before he was acquired from the Twins in late July, could prove to be the better option, though. Regardless of whether he wins the starting job at third base, his speed (40 SB), power (16 HR) and versatility (he can play 2B, 3B, SS, LF and RF) will ensure he’s in the lineup on a regular basis.

A platoon in left field with Jarrett Parker (.942 OPS in 151 career plate appearances versus right-handed pitchers) and either Gorkys Hernandez or Mac Williamson isn’t out of the question, but there are several proven options on the free agent market that the Giants could sign.

If the Giants are willing to pay top dollar and significantly increase their payroll, Yoenis Cespedes could be on their radar. The cost of finding a good closer likely decreases those chances, though, which would make Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler and Josh Reddick more likely targets. If the plan is to not increase their payroll significantly, Jon Jay or Matt Joyce could be more cost-efficient options, as would bringing back free agent Angel Pagan. The trade market should also present some options with Jorge Soler one of the notable players expected to be shopped.

Keeping this veteran core of talent together isn’t cheap. Even with the salaries of Casilla, Javier Lopez, Jake Peavy, Sergio Romo and Pagan coming off the books, the Giants are projected to be very close to the 2016 payroll total before making a move. My current projection has them around $170MM, the fifth highest total in baseball. Signing one of the top free agents this offseason would require either a payroll increase, creative contract structuring or a trade. If Evans can make it happen, though, the Giants will enter the 2017 season with one of the most talented and well-balanced rosters in the league.

Free Agent Profile: Ivan Nova

By | at

In July, Ivan Nova was nearly a forgotten man. He’d started the season in the Yankees bullpen, then struggled after heading to the rotation in May. Leave it to the Pirates and their pitcher-fixing ways to change that, however. Nova excelled down the stretch after heading to Pittsburgh in a low-profile deadline trade, and he now looks like one of the top starting pitchers available in a paper-thin free agent market.

Pros/Strengths

If we had to edit this section down to six words, it would read, “everything he did with the Pirates.” In 64 2/3 innings with the Bucs, Nova posted a 3.06 ERA, with a 7.2 K/9, a 52.3% ground ball rate and an astounding 0.4 BB/9. (Or, to put that differently, he walked three batters in a span of more than two months.) With the Bucs, Nova focused on throwing first-pitch strikes and improving his release point, and the results speak for themselves. If he’s able to retain the improvements he made, he’ll make a strong addition to pretty much any rotation, and at the relatively young age of 29, there’s hope that he’ll be able to continue contributing for years to come, especially since his ability to get ground balls gives him something of a floor.

Ivan NovaAs I noted in a Free Agent Stock Watch piece in late August, Nova also has precedent on his side. Other pitchers the Pirates have fixed (either in perception or reality) have continued to pitch at least reasonably well elsewhere, including J.A. Happ, Edinson Volquez and Mark Melancon. The Jays are surely happy with their $36MM investment in Happ, whose situation parallels Nova’s in many ways — the Bucs acquired Happ in an under-the-radar deadline deal in 2015, and he immediately transformed from a forgettable back-of-the-rotation type to a strike-throwing stopper. He maintained much of that improvement this year in Toronto, posting a 3.18 ERA, 7.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 over 195 innings and attaining a level of sustained success he’d never experienced before. His contract, seemingly at least somewhat of a risk at the time, now looks like a bargain. Nova’s representatives at the Legacy Agency can point to Happ’s example to show that Nova’s success is unlikely to turn out to be a fluke, or a temporary benefit of working with Ray Searage and the rest of the Pirates’ coaching staff.

Cons/Weaknesses

Again in six words: “everything he did before the Pirates.” There is nothing in Nova’s pre-August track record — besides, perhaps, his consistent ground-ball ability — to suggest he’s worthy of the kind of contract he seems likely to command this winter. The relatively high prospect price the Bucs paid to get Nova (they gave up outfielder Tito Polo and lefty Stephen Tarpley as players to be named) suggests Nova did have value on the trade market. Still, if Nova’s Pirates numbers speak for themselves, his pre-trade numbers do too — before the deal, he’d posted a 4.90 ERA, 6.9 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 97 1/3 innings with the Yankees. His statistics before that (he had a career 4.33 ERA, 6.7 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 before 2016, only topping 170 innings in a season one time) are fine but likewise uninspiring. The team that signs Nova will be taking a very expensive gamble that his excellent two months with the Pirates represent his real talent level going forward. That’s a dicey proposition for a number of reasons. Two months is a small sample, and it’s easy to imagine Nova having walked a few more batters in his Pirates tenure and posting a line that looked distinctly less impressive.

Nova had also allowed 19 home runs in 2016 before the trade. Home-run rate isn’t the best indicator of future performance for a pitcher, but Nova also allowed hard contact at a high 35.6% rate. It’s possible to argue that Nova’s success with the Pirates was largely a result of his feeling free to throw more strikes due to the generally homer-unfriendly context in which the Bucs play. (It’s hard to throw as many strikes as Nova did with the Pirates without worrying about the ball flying out of the park every so often.) He might therefore be less attractive target for teams in homer-happy ballparks or divisions.

Personal

Nova was born in San Cristobal, Dominican Republic, and as a child, he initially played shortstop and outfield. In 2004, after a growth spurt landed him on the prospect radar, he signed for $80K with the Yankees, the team he’d rooted for as a youngster. He is married to former Miss Dominican Republic Ada de la Cruz.

Market

Nova’s future appears especially bright given the quality of his free agent competition. The only starting pitcher who decisively looks like a better buy is Rich Hill, and even that might be debatable, since Hill is 36. Jeremy Hellickson is the same age as Nova and has a better track record, but lacks the upside Nova demonstrated in his strong finish. Also, since Nova was traded this season, he can’t be extended a qualifying offer, unlike Hellickson.

The Pirates need pitching help and attempted to extend Nova before season’s end, although they reportedly balked at Nova’s asking price of five years and $70MM. They could get involved again this winter, and Nova appears amenable to returning. Signing Nova will almost certainly require the Pirates to make their largest-ever commitment to a free agent, and their recent dumping of Francisco Liriano (whose last free agent contract is the Bucs’ current largest ever) in a dubious salary-shedding trade might indicate they won’t be willing or able to pay Nova what he might be able to get elsewhere. The Angels, Rangers, Twins and Braves also stand out as teams that could have interest.

Expected Contract

Ian Kennedy got five years and $70MM from the Royals last offseason, and Nova’s identical reported asking price seems to have been determined with that deal in mind. It seems unlikely Nova will actually get that much, even in a weak market, since Kennedy had a much longer track record both in number and quality of innings pitched. Nova could get close, though, perhaps receiving a similar average annual value to Kennedy with a slightly shorter commitment. There’s plenty of precedent for free agent starting pitchers in the upper middle of a typical market getting four years at an AAV of $12MM-$14MM. We’re guessing Nova will receive four years and $52MM, which would put his contract in line with recent deals for Ervin Santana, Brandon McCarthy, Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza and Ricky Nolasco.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

By | at

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

The Rangers are coming off a 95-win season, and they’ll return plenty of impact players to a 2017 team that could be strong yet again. This offseason will be a challenge for GM Jon Daniels, though, as he attempts to augment a roster that has a number of glaring needs.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Prince Fielder, 1B: $96MM through 2020 (Fielder will remain on disabled list, with an insurance policy covering $9MM per year and the Tigers covering $6MM per year for the rest of his contract)
  • Elvis Andrus, SS: $88MM through 2022 (plus 2023 club/vesting option)
  • Shin-Soo Choo, OF: $82MM through 2020
  • Cole Hamels, SP: $51MM through 2018 (includes $6MM buyout on 2019 club/vesting option)
  • Adrian Beltre, 3B: $36MM through 2018
  • Yu Darvish, SP: $11MM through 2017
  • Martin Perez, SP: $6.85MM through 2017 (includes $2.45MM buyout on 2018 club option)
  • Tony Barnette, RP: $2MM through 2017 (includes $250K buyout on 2018 club option)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

  • Derek Holland, SP: $11MM or $1.5MM buyout (should the Rangers exercise the option, they’ll also have an option for 2018)
  • Jonathan Lucroy, C: $5.25MM or $250K buyout

Free Agents

Rangers Depth Chart; Rangers Payroll Information

For a very successful team, the 2016 Rangers had more than their share of problems. Their bullpen was a disaster early in the season. Their starting rotation was very weak beyond Cole Hamels, Martin Perez and (when he was healthy) Yu Darvish. And, of course, 2016 saw the sad end of the career of Prince Fielder, in whom the Rangers had made a significant investment. Overall, the team scored 765 runs and allowed 757, for a Pythagorean record of just 82-80. The Rangers certainly could contend again in 2017, and they’ll surely approach their offseason with that in mind. But their roster currently looks a bit closer to that of a problematic 82-80 team than a 95-win juggernaut.

Following a midseason trade for Jonathan Lucroy, the Rangers have plenty of catching help. Lucroy’s $5.25MM option was a trivially easy decision after Lucroy batted .276/.345/.539 for them down the stretch. (That Lucroy, who is now 30 and has nearly seven years of service time, will still be paid just $5.25MM next season is one of the game’s great mysteries.) Lucroy will have a capable backup in Robinson Chirinos, who still will only receive a projected $2.1MM despite producing 2.3 fWAR in less than a season’s worth of at bats over the last two years.

Rougned Odor, Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre will man the leftmost three infield positions, with the still-youthful Jurickson Profar available to back up any of those three spots as needed. Those positions will require little attention this offseason. But the same can’t be said of first base, where the Rangers are set to lose Mitch Moreland. Moreland is now 31, is coming off an underwhelming .233/.298/.422 season, and has merely been a good complementary player even in his best years. The Rangers would probably be best served simply to let him walk.

They have an obvious replacement for Moreland, too, in Joey Gallo, a prolific minor league slugger who played 32 games at first base at Triple-A Round Rock last season. (Gallo recently injured his hamstring playing winter ball in Venezuela, but there’s no indication that injury will affect his 2017 season.) Gallo’s power is tantalizing — he’s hit at least 26 home runs in all of the last four seasons. He does, however, come with significant downside risk, since he only batted .240 for Round Rock last year, has struck out a ton even in the minors, and has hit just .173 through 153 plate appearances in the big leagues. It’s perhaps no surprise, then, that the Rangers have indicated that they’d prefer to have him start 2017 in the minors. Ryan Rua provides the Rangers with another option at first, and could come in particularly handy since he bats righty while Gallo is a lefty. But his track record is somewhat limited as well. Profar is another possibility at first base.

The Rangers are also thin at DH, since Carlos Beltran is set to depart. Re-signing Beltran (who wants to keep playing next season) would be an obvious move to improve at DH, but it wouldn’t have the benefit of also providing insurance at first. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggests one solution would be a reunion with Mike Napoli, who bats right-handed and has had a solid year with Cleveland. A more up-market target could be Edwin Encarnacion, whose big bat would be an exciting fit in Texas and who has already been connected to the Rangers. In any case, acquiring one player for first base or DH would seem to be nearly mandatory.

Ian DesmondWith Shin-Soo Choo and Nomar Mazara, the corner outfield appears set. But it’s unclear who will stand between them, with both Ian Desmond and Carlos Gomez eligible for free agency. Either of them could return. Desmond appears to be the higher priority of the two, although the team has expressed interest in re-signing Gomez as well. The Rangers extended Desmond a qualifying offer, and he would be wise to decline it, his misadventures with the qualifying offer last offseason notwithstanding. He’s still just 31 and produced 3.3 fWAR while earning praise for his clubhouse presence, so he seems like a good bet to land a hefty multi-year deal this winter. Gomez, too, should be sought after on the free agent market, thanks to his turnaround following his release by the Astros. Expect the Rangers to be in touch with both players until or unless they sign elsewhere.

Texas will need to balance its issues in center field and 1B/DH with its needs in the rotation. Hamels, Darvish and Perez will be back, but there’s flux beyond that. The Rangers paid Derek Holland a $1.5MM buyout rather than exercising his $11MM option. Holland’s last strong, healthy season was 2013, and he’s a different player than he was then — his fastball velocity has dropped about two MPH, and his offspeed stuff isn’t nearly as effective. He only recently turned 30, but he produced just a 4.95 ERA, 5.6 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in yet another injury-riddled season in 2016. While he could theoretically return, the Rangers surely hope to do better.

They also face the departure of 37-year-old Colby Lewis, who’ll return to the open market. Like Holland, Lewis had health problems this season, missing two months due to a lat issue. Perhaps the Rangers could bring Lewis back on another cheap one-year deal, but he’s showing serious signs of decline, despite a 3.71 ERA last season. His strikeout rate fell for the third straight season to 5.6 K/9, coinciding with a velocity drop to around the 87-MPH range. He also remains a fly-ball pitcher, making him somewhat of an awkward fit for the Rangers’ home ballpark.

The Rangers’ other rotation options are dubious. A.J. Griffin deserves congratulations for pitching 119 innings in 2016 after missing two years to injury, but he also produced just a 5.07 ERA, with peripherals to match; he’ll likely be non-tendered. Nick Martinez and Chi Chi Gonzalez likewise showed little in their limited opportunities. Top prospect Yohander Mendez looks like he could eventually develop into a solid lefty rotation option, but given his very limited experience above Class A+, he should probably start 2017 in Triple-A.

That means the Rangers will head into this offseason looking for at least one starter. As has been amply discussed here at MLBTR, the free agent market for starting pitching is weak. That doesn’t mean the Rangers won’t pursue higher-ranked pitchers in a market topped by Rich Hill, Ivan Nova, Jeremy Hellickson, and surprising entrant Jason Hammel. But they’ll also likely check out the trade market, which they might favor anyway, since their current 2017 payroll (including Lucroy and several key arbitration-eligible players) already amounts to somewhere around $130MM.

Despite paying fairly hefty prospect prices in recent trades (particularly the pair of deals that netted Lucroy, Jeremy Jeffress, Hamels and Jake Diekman in return for Lewis Brinson, Luis Ortiz, Ryan Cordell, Nick Williams, Jorge Alfaro, Jerad Eickhoff, Alec Asher, Jake Thompson and Matt Harrison), the Rangers have more than enough prospect depth to make a trade, thanks in part to their heavy spending in Latin America in recent years. One wonders, then, if there might be a trade match with the Padres — Friars GM A.J. Preller was previously a Rangers exec who played a key role in the franchise’s Latin spending, and he has Tyson Ross (who is currently recovering from surgery to relieve thoracic outlet syndrome) to deal.

There are, of course, other interesting pitchers potentially available, including many with less problematic health records. And the Rangers could certainly aim to acquire a high-grade arm if they are open-minded about who they’re willing to deal. There have been no specific indications that the Rangers might consider trading Profar (and Daniels has said he envisions keeping him), but a willingness to include Profar in potential deals would surely pique the interest of clubs considering trading starting pitching who’d prefer major league pieces in return.

The Rangers’ bullpen wasn’t a strength in 2016, and the team was especially poor in the first half of the season, when Tom Wilhelmsen, Cesar Ramos, closer Shawn Tolleson and others struggled greatly. Texas relievers mostly recovered in the second half, though, and the bullpen looks to be in reasonably good shape going forward. Tolleson, long ago replaced at closer by Sam Dyson, has already been outrighted. Dyson, Matt Bush, Alex Claudio, Jake Diekman and Tony Barnette all pitched well this season and are slated to return, and Jeffress (an underrated part of the Lucroy trade) provides the Rangers with another controllable bullpen asset. Keone Kela, Dario Alvarez and Jose Leclerc also all showed at least some potential to blossom into reliable bullpen cogs at some point. As with many contending teams, the Rangers surely would not mind adding a bit of relief depth, and could reasonably consider pursuing some of the top-available closers. (If they were to add someone, they would probably prefer a righty.) But they now have enough talent that it doesn’t need to be a top priority.

Nonetheless, the Rangers appear headed toward a tricky offseason. They have plenty of talent, and figure to contend in 2017 yet again. But they also have a number of key positions yet to fill, and will face a tough free agent market with some apparent payroll constraints. Their offseason will be defined by how they navigate those choppy waters as they attempt to find center field, first base and starting pitching help.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Mark Trumbo

By | at

The move to hitter-friendly Camden Yards took Mark Trumbo’s slugging to a whole new level in 2016, and now we’ll see how his homer-centric game will play on the open market.

Strengths/Pros

In a word, power.  Trumbo’s 47 home runs led the majors last season, as he became just the fourth Oriole in history (following Frank Robinson, Brady Anderson and Chris Davis) to go deep at least 47 times in a single season.  Trumbo’s .533 slugging percentage last year easily topped his career .458 SLG from 2010-15, though it certainly wasn’t his only big year at the plate, having averaged 32 homers per year with the Angels from 2011-13.

His huge leap in production earned him American League Comeback Player Of The Year honors, though Trumbo was maybe somewhat of a curious choice given that his 2015 numbers weren’t bad.  He was also named to the All-Star team, the second time he had received a nod to the Midseason Classic during his career.

Trumbo’s career splits headed into this year indicated that he hit lefties a bit better than righties, which is normal for a right-handed hitter.  Curiously, 2016 saw Trumbo deliver some massive reverse splits — he posted a .932 OPS in 501 PA against right-handed pitching but just a .608 OPS against southpaws.  This one-year gap was large enough that it effectively balanced his career splits, so on paper, Trumbo has been equally productive against all pitchers over his career.  Trumbo’s BABIP luck against righties (.316) wasn’t nearly as glaring as his lack of fortune against lefties (.167), so it could be argued there’s a better chance Trumbo’s numbers against left-handers improve in 2017 than there is of him coming substantially back to earth against righties.Mark Trumbo

Trumbo is often considered a defensive liability, and indeed, his career UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved totals as a corner outfielder are pretty ugly.  In his only two seasons as a primary first baseman, however, Trumbo’s glovework was more than solid — +9 DRS and 5.2 UZR/150 in 2011 and +2 DRS and 10.5 UZR/150 in 2013.  His defensive numbers at first have been below-average over the last three years, though he has only 566 innings at the position in that time, as Trumbo was largely blocked by Davis in Baltimore and Paul Goldschmidt in Arizona.

If used at first, Trumbo’s metrics indicate that he could provide notable value at the position.  If a team has needs at both first and in either corner outfield, Trumbo could handle left or right as long as the team was willing to sacrifice fielding for power.  Of course, American League teams can bypass defensive questions altogether by pursuing Trumbo as a designated hitter.

Weaknesses/Cons

Trumbo is almost the definition of the all-or-nothing slugger, capable of bashing homers at an outstanding rate but not bringing much else to the table offensively.  His .256 batting average and .316 on-base percentage last year were only mild increases over his career averages in both categories.  Not only is Trumbo not getting on base, he’s also making a lot of unproductive outs — he ranks tenth among all hitters in strikeouts (848) and 14th in pop-ups (124) since the start of the 2011 season.

Between the lack of baserunning, defense and all-around hitting, Trumbo’s value is limited even despite his slugging prowess.  His 1.6 bWAR in 2016 was the lowest of any player who had ever delivered a 47-homer season.

Part of the issue was that Trumbo did most of his damage before the All-Star break and badly tailed off in the last half of the season.  While he kept up the power throughout the year, Trumbo hit .288/.341/.582 before the break and just .214/.284/.470 afterwards.

Health-wise, Trumbo has suffered stress fractures in both of his feet over the last five years.  His break in his right foot occurred near the end of the 2011 season and didn’t cause him to miss much time, though he was limited to just 88 games in 2014 thanks to a fracture in his left foot.  Trumbo also had a plantar fasciitis issue that same year, which could’ve possibly factored into the injury.  He has been pretty durable over the last two years, however, and a move to regular first base or DH duties would make things much easier on his feet.

The Orioles have extended Trumbo a qualifying offer, and assuming he rejects it, his new team will have to surrender their highest-eligible draft pick in order to sign him.  (Or, if he goes back to Baltimore, they’ll give up the chance to add a compensatory pick.)  Trumbo’s ability to thump will definitely attract attention, though some clubs will balk at giving up a draft pick to sign a player with Trumbo’s limitations, preferring to chase other power options available at a lower price and without QO compensation attached.

Personal

Trumbo, born in Anaheim in January 1986, was drafted out of high school by his hometown Angels in the 18th round in 2004.  He got himself on the prospect radar with a 32-homer campaign in high A-ball and Double-A in 2008 and then a 36-homer/.945 OPS season in Triple-A in 2010 earned him his first big league promotion that September.

When Kendrys Morales infamously broke his leg jumping on home plate during a walkoff homer celebration, his extended rehab gave Trumbo the Angels’ first base job at the start of the 2011 season.  This ended up being a season-long assignment once complications from Morales’ injury sidelined him for the entire year, and Trumbo rose to the occasion by hitting .254/.291/.477 with 29 home runs over 573 PA, a performance that earned him a runner-up finish to Jeremy Hellickson in AL Rookie Of The Year voting.

Albert Pujols’ arrival in Los Angeles began Trumbo’s position carousel, as the Halos tried him in left, right and even a brief dalliance at third base, though Trumbo ended up spending a lot of time back at first in 2013 due to Pujols’ injury problems.  Ultimately, the Angels saw him as an expendable piece, trading him to the D’Backs in December 2013 as part of a very notable three-team deal with the White Sox that also sent Adam Eaton to Chicago and both Hector Santiago and Tyler Skaggs to Anaheim.

Injuries and some ill-conceived usage as a left fielder led to an unmemorable stint in Arizona, and Trumbo found himself on the move again in June 2015, this time sent to Seattle as part of a six-player trade.  This deal ended up looking good for the D’-backs (Welington Castillo has gone on to become their regular catcher) and it seems like the Mariners came up short in another Trumbo deal when they swapped the slugger and C.J. Riefenhauser to the O’s last December for Steve Clevenger.

It was in Baltimore that Trumbo finally seemed to unlock the potential that so many other clubs had been hoping for him to find on their watch.  One might argue that Trumbo could be a candidate to accept the one-year, $17.2MM qualifying offer from the Orioles due to his poor second half, lack of a well-rounded game and the possibility of the QO hurting his market, but I disagree.  If anything, perhaps Trumbo will be more eager for the security of a long-term deal given how he’s gone through three trades in as many years.

Market

There are several other first base/right field/DH types on the free agent market this year, though Trumbo has a few advantages over most of his peers.  Trumbo is entering his age-31 season, which makes him markedly younger than several of the other bats who share a similar heavy-hitting but defensively-lacking profile.  Trumbo’s representatives from Wasserman can argue that their client is a true everyday player, unlike many other hitters who carry significant platoon splits.

While Trumbo takes pride in his effort in the outfield, he himself noted last winter that he is a better defensive option at first than he is in right.  He’ll likely continue to market himself as an outfield candidate since multi-position versatility is an attractive commodity, though one wonders if Trumbo himself will prefer to seek out first base opportunities rather than potentially suffer through another value-deflating year chasing fly balls.

Edwin Encarnacion is the biggest name in the first base/DH market this winter, and it stands to reason that teams who either miss out on Encarnacion or couldn’t afford him in the first place could turn to Trumbo as an alternative.  The Blue Jays, Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox or Astros are potential fits, as are maybe the Royals as a DH-only option if Trumbo’s price tag significantly drops.  A National League team would have to believe that Trumbo can handle an everyday first base role, and if so, that opens the door to the Marlins as possible candidates.  The Rockies could also be a fit, though one wonders if they’d be willing to give up the 11th overall pick in the draft for any qualifying offer free agent, Trumbo included.

A return to the Orioles isn’t out of the question, as both Trumbo and the team have expressed a mutual interest in continuing their relationship.  The O’s need help in both corner spots and could offer Trumbo a full-time DH slot if Pedro Alvarez is not re-signed.  On the other hand, as I noted in my Orioles Offseason Outlook piece, Baltimore already possesses quite a few power hitters with swing-and-miss tendencies, plus payroll could be an issue.  Dan Duquette had has a knack for picking up sluggers at a low price only to watch them blossom at Camden Yards, so he might seek out another undervalued bat rather than pay a significant price to retain Trumbo.

Expected Contract

While Trumbo certainly has his flaws, he somewhat strikes me as a player who has simply yet to find his ideal role.  He spent much of his early career in pitcher-friendly ballparks in Anaheim and Seattle, and teams have consistently miscast him as an outfielder when it seems like he would be at least a passable first baseman.  A good fit is often as much about hiding shortcomings as it is about emphasizing strengths, and Trumbo could very well continue to deliver 40-plus homers if he lands on the right team with the right idea about how to use him.

As Yahoo’s Jeff Passan noted in a recent column, however, slugging-only players like Trumbo could be impacted by the simple fact that Major League Baseball experienced a huge spike in home runs in 2016.  Power is seemingly no longer the rare commodity it was even one offseason ago, though obviously, 47-homer power is still very hard to find.  Even with the qualifying offer and the glut of other bats on the market, MLB Trade Rumors sees Trumbo landing a deal in the neighborhood of four years and $60MM this offseason.

Photo courtesy of Brad Penner/USA Today Sports Images

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

By | at

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

With some major core players eligible for free agency, the Blue Jays may need some significant retooling to make another postseason trip.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

Free Agents

Toronto Blue Jays Depth Chart; Blue Jays Payroll Overview

Since the start of the 2010 season, Jose Bautista has hit more home runs (249) than any player in baseball, while Edwin Encarnacion (231) ranks third on that same list.  Having both of these prolific bats together on (what turned out to be) very team-friendly contracts has been one of the key factors behind the Blue Jays’ recent success, but this winter, it seems very likely that the Bautista/Encarnacion era will come to an end.

Naturally, the Jays’ decisions on the two cornerstone players will shape the rest of their offseason decision-making.  Re-signing both seems very improbable, as the Jays would be committing millions to two players in their mid-to-late-30s when the team already has a pretty expensive and aging roster.  Re-signing one of the two is a possibility, and initial signs are that Encarnacion may be the prime target. In his case, he said he was “really disappointed” by his Spring Training extension talks with the club, as the Jays reportedly only offered him two guaranteed years with multiple vesting options for further seasons.  That offer seemed strangely low at the time and it looks downright meager compared to what Encarnacion will earn in the wake of a 42-homer, .263/.357/.529 season.  Though Encarnacion will be 34 on Opening Day, he has put himself in line to easily land a four-year guarantee with a $20MM+ average annual value, and perhaps one enterprising team could even go as high as five years.

Bautista, on the other hand, will require a much lower price tag but also carries far more question marks.  Bautista hit .234/.366/.452 with 22 homers over 517 PA; good numbers for most players, but a big step backwards from his usual offensive output.  While he was still productive at the plate, his baserunning (as per Fangraphs’ BsR metric) and defense (-9.3 UZR/150, -8 Defensive Runs Saved) nosedived, leaving him with an overall contribution of just 1.4 fWAR.  Injuries likely played a part, as Bautista had two lengthy DL stints due to a sprained knee and turf toe.  The 36-yeard-old has now suffered through three injury-shortened seasons in the last five years, and between his health history, age and declining defense, his future may lie as a DH/first baseman rather than as a regular right fielder.

GM Ross Atkins told reporters that the Jays had plans to speak to both players in the exclusive five-day prior to free agency (which expired about 13 hours ago), and both Encarnacion and Bautista were issued qualifying offers.  At the very least, the Blue Jays will receive first-round compensatory draft picks should Encarnacion and Bautista sign elsewhere, assuming they turn the QOs down.  (Encarnacion certainly will, and Bautista reportedly will do so as well, though there’s at least a minor chance he could opt for the one-year, $17.2MM offer and shoot for a healthier platform season in 2017.)

Left fielder Michael Saunders did not receive a qualifying offer, as Toronto’s other big position player free agent had a very rough second half of the season that overshadowed his All-Star caliber first half.  Retaining Saunders would give the Jays a much-needed left-handed bat to help balance out a very right-handed lineup.  If Encarnacion and Bautista both departed, Saunders could see more time at DH, which would improve the Jays’ outfield defense and also perhaps help Saunders stay fresh and productive throughout the entire year.

If all three hitters left in free agency, the Blue Jays would lose some serious pop but would also gain the opportunity to remake a somewhat one-dimensional lineup.  While Toronto finished ninth among all teams in runs scored in 2016, the club was rather an all-or-nothing offense, prone to extended cold streaks (such as down the stretch in September) when not hitting home runs.  The Jays were also a bottom-10 team in both contact rate and stolen bases, while finishing eighth in strikeouts and hitting into a league-high 153 double plays.

Read more

2016-17 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions

By , and | at

mlbtr_top_free_agents_1080

MLB Trade Rumors is proud to present our eleventh annual Top 50 Free Agents list!  The entire list of available free agents can be found here, and you can filter by position, signing team, and qualifying offer status with our new and improved, mobile-friendly free agent tracker here.

New to MLBTR?  You can follow us on Twitter, like us on Facebook, follow us on Instagram, and download our free app for iOS and Android.

MLBTR writers Steve Adams, Jeff Todd, Jason Martinez, Mark Polishuk, and Connor Byrne joined me in this collaboration, debating free agent contracts and destinations over countless emails and phone calls.  We vetted these as much as possible, but with 50 predictions and a volatile free agent and trade marketplace, we know we’ll be off on some.  Let us know what you think in the comment section!  Also, I’ll be holding a live chat on the site at 1pm central time on Tuesday to discuss this list.

1.   Yoenis Cespedes – Dodgers.  Five years, $125MM.  Cespedes chose to opt out of the remaining two years and $47.5MM remaining on his Mets contract and re-enter free agency, which came as little surprise.  Last winter, an acceptable five or six-year offer never materialized for Cespedes, but we think he’ll have greater success the second time around given less competition and another strong year.  Despite missing time with a quad injury, the 31-year-old Cespedes hit 31 home runs in 132 games, and also set a career best with a 9.4% walk rate.  Though he did fake it in center field for 63 games with the Mets, Cespedes is better off settling in as a left fielder.  I’ve long pegged Cespedes for a six-year deal, but I dropped to five after a more detailed look at his potential suitors.   I imagine the Mets will again take an opportunistic approach toward Cespedes, leaving the Nationals, Giants, Dodgers, and Astros as other top possibilities.

2.  Edwin Encarnacion – Red Sox.  Four years, $92MM.  Encarnacion, 34 in January, is neck-and-neck with Cespedes as the best hitter in the 2016-17 free agent class after hitting 193 home runs for the Blue Jays from 2012-16, including 42 this year.  Encarnacion spent more time at designated hitter than first base in each of the last two seasons, suggesting his market is limited to American League teams.  The Blue Jays were unable to work out an extension with him in the spring, but will likely still engage in discussions.  The Red Sox, Rangers, Orioles, Astros, and Yankees are other possibilities.

3.  Aroldis Chapman – Yankees.  Five years, $90MM.  Nobody on the planet can throw a baseball faster than Aroldis Chapman, and now the fireballing southpaw closer has reached free agency in advance of his 29th birthday.  The lefty’s electric fastball has led to eye-popping numbers since 2012: a 1.84 ERA with a ridiculous 15.7 K/9 in 313 2/3 regular season innings.  The Cubs acquired Chapman in July, and in the playoffs, manager Joe Maddon attempted to lean hard on Chapman for multiple-inning appearances.  While the results were mixed, Chapman at least showed a willingness to be deployed unconventionally.  Unlike fellow free agent relief ace Kenley Jansen, Chapman is not subject to a qualifying offer.  We expect both stoppers to blow the lid off previous reliever contracts; Chapman has a shot at doubling the $50MM contract Jonathan Papelbon signed five years ago.  Certainly, a five-year deal for any reliever is not prudent, which is why we haven’t seen one in free agency since the Blue Jays signed B.J. Ryan in 2005.  However, bidding wars tend to spark irrational contract offers.  Any team considering signing Chapman must weigh his alleged actions on October 30th, 2015, which derailed a trade to the Dodgers and led to a 30-game domestic violence suspension to start his 2016 season.  The Cubs may look to retain Chapman, and other possible fits include the Giants, Yankees, Dodgers, Nationals, and Rangers.

4.  Justin Turner – Dodgers.  Five years, $85MM.  Non-tendered by the Mets after the 2013 season, Turner blossomed into a star for the Dodgers after they signed him to a minor league deal.  Turner, 32 later this month, learned to turn doubles into longballs with the Dodgers, culminating in his 27 home run 2016 campaign.  He also posted another strong defensive season at the hot corner.  The result was a season worth 5.6 wins above replacement according to FanGraphs, best among free agents.  The Dodgers don’t have strong alternatives, but if they let Turner leave, teams like the Giants, Braves, Red Sox, and Angels could come calling.

5.  Kenley Jansen – Cubs.  Five years, $85MM.  In 2009, Dodgers executive De Jon Watson convinced a 6’5″ light-hitting, strong-armed A ball catcher to convert to the pitcher’s mound.  Now, armed with a cutter reminiscent of Mariano Rivera, Kenley Jansen is one of the best relievers in baseball.  Though he’s not quite as flashy as Chapman, Jansen sports better control and his own dominant strikeout rate.  He battled an irregular heartbeat in 2011-12, but was fortunately able to beat that issue with surgery four years ago.  Should the Dodgers balk at a historic contract for Jansen, the Cubs, Giants, Yankees, Nationals, and Rangers could serve as alternatives.

6.  Dexter Fowler – Cardinals.  Four years, $64MM.  Fowler is yet another player who is re-entering the free agent market after a disappointing 2015-16 offseason.  Instead of the four-year deal we predicted, Fowler returned to the Cubs on a one-year contract in February.  He led all free agents with a .393 on-base percentage in 2016, and reinforced his center field defense as at least average.  Fowler will again have a qualifying offer attached, but this time we can see at least a dozen reasonable suitors.  An openness to an outfield corner would boost Fowler’s market.  The Cubs may consider a new contract in the wake of their World Championship, though they didn’t make a big offer to him a year ago and may need to free up their outfield logjam.  The Cardinals, Nationals, Blue Jays, Rangers, White Sox, Indians, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Giants, and Mariners could have interest in Fowler.

7.  Jeremy Hellickson – Rangers.  Four years, $60MM.  When the Phillies acquired Hellickson from the Diamondbacks a year ago as mostly a salary dump, few would have predicted he’d be lined up for the largest contract of any free agent starter now.  Hellickson, 30 in April, anchored the Phillies’ rotation with a 3.71 ERA in 189 innings in 2016.  Skills-wise, Hellickson remains prone to the longball and didn’t change much from 2015.  In terms of pitchers on this market who can take the ball every fifth day, Hellickson may be the best of a bad crop, and his contract should be surprisingly strong even if Ian Kennedy’s five-year, $70MM deal is out of reach.  Assuming Hellickson turns down a qualifying offer from the Phillies and doesn’t reach a multiyear agreement to return, he could find interest from the Angels, Braves, Rangers, Astros, Marlins, Orioles, and several other teams.  It would help to have a protected first-round pick in 2017, as the Braves and Angels do.

8.  Mark Trumbo – Orioles.  Four years, $60MM.  The Mariners traded Trumbo to the Orioles last December as a salary dump, and he rewarded his new club by winning the home run crown with 47 bombs.  Trumbo, 31 in January, has shown big power in the past with 95 home runs from 2011-13 for the Angels.  While Trumbo’s power clearly makes him an asset on offense, he’s a one-dimensional player.  He doesn’t get on base enough, and he’s a significant detriment in the field.  This year he spent the most time in right field, but he’s also a candidate for left field, first base, and of course, designated hitter.  While we’ve predicted four years here, Trumbo was saddled with a qualifying offer, it won’t be a surprise if he has to settle for a lesser contract later in the offseason.  The MLBTR team has batted around potential fits for him, and we feel the best candidates are the Orioles, Red Sox, Rangers, A’s, Giants, and Rockies.

9.  Ian Desmond – Phillies.  Four years, $60MM.  Despite an off year for the Nationals’ shortstop, and a qualifying offer, MLBTR predicted Desmond would land a five-year, $80MM contract in free agency after the 2015 season.  Instead, Desmond concluded a disastrous offseason by signing a one-year, $8MM deal in February to serve as the Rangers’ left fielder.  Desmond handled the position change well, ultimately spending more than 80% of his time as a center fielder and the rest in left.  He also resumed his place as an above average hitter, managing a .285/.335/.446 line on the season.  Notably, he tailed off as the season wore on, hitting .244/.292/.300 over his final 233 plate appearances.  Still, Desmond re-enters the market as a quality center fielder, rather than a defensively-challenged shortstop.  He can probably handle all three outfield positions, and possibly third base as well.  Desmond’s stock has clearly risen in the last year, though he will again bear the burden of a qualifying offer.  The Rangers may attempt to re-sign him, but the Orioles, Astros, Angels, Mariners, White Sox, Giants, Cardinals, Indians, Dodgers, Phillies, Braves, and even Nationals could be suitors.

10.  Ivan Nova – Angels.  Four years, $52MM.  After Nova was pulled from a July 7th start for the Yankees in Cleveland, his ERA sat at 5.17.  The year prior, he’d returned from Tommy John surgery to post a 5.07 ERA.  Nova was traded to the Pirates with little fanfare at the deadline, but the righty put up a stellar 3.06 ERA in 11 starts.  Nova allowed just three walks in 64 2/3 innings.  The stint with Pittsburgh served as a reminder that Nova did have success with the Yankees in 2011 and ’13.  Last winter, J.A. Happ was able to spin a successful Pirates stint into a three-year, $36MM deal with the Blue Jays, covering his age 33-35 seasons.  Nova doesn’t turn 30 until January, and unlike Jeremy Hellickson, he won’t cost a draft pick to sign.  The weak market for starting pitching should benefit him greatly, and his list of suitors should resemble that of Hellickson.  While we’re predicting four years for Nova, he’s never reached 180 innings in a season, and that will cause some teams to stop at a three-year term.

11.  Mark Melancon – Giants.  Four years, $52MM.  Melancon, 32 in March, is the third top-shelf reliever available in free agency this winter.  He doesn’t offer the huge strikeout ability of Chapman or Jansen, but no one can match Melancon’s 1.80 ERA over 290 innings from 2013-16.  He’s served as a lockdown closer for three-plus years, and should get plenty of play from teams that prefer not to operate in the Chapman/Jansen financial stratosphere.  The Nationals acquired Melancon from the Pirates in July and will attempt to lock him up.  If they fail, the Giants, Dodgers, Cubs, and Yankees could be among the top suitors.  We can picture Melancon being the first of the Big Three closers to sign, allowing him to briefly hold the record for the largest contract ever signed by a reliever.

12.  Jose Bautista – Blue Jays.  Three years, $51MM.  In February, massive numbers were floated regarding Bautista’s asking price for an extension with the Blue Jays.  Regardless of the slugger’s exact demand at that time, the 36-year-old now faces an uphill battle in getting a fourth year on his next contract.  Bautista endured DL stints for toe and knee injuries, playing in only 116 games this year.  His power numbers declined, his right field defense remained an issue, and he comes with a qualifying offer.  Still, Bautista served as the face of the Blue Jays in crushing 227 home runs from 2010-15.  If the Jays don’t retain him, Bautista may be limited to AL teams like the Red Sox, Orioles, or White Sox.  While we’ve predicted three years, a one-year deal could make sense for Bautista, as could an opt-out clause in a multiyear pact.

13.  Wilson Ramos – Astros.  Four years, $50MM.  Ramos, a 29-year-old catcher, was in the midst of a breakout season when he tore his ACL and meniscus in late September.  Ramos’ injury has a seven-month rehab timeline, so it seems he’ll miss the first six weeks of the 2017 season even in the best case scenario.  Additionally, Ramos has questioned whether he can play for a National League team in 2017, given the lack of a designated hitter position.  We’re assuming Ramos still takes the largest contract possible, but we can’t rule out a one-year deal either.  He should still have a strong market, perhaps including the Angels, Astros, Twins, White Sox, Braves, and Orioles.  The Nationals could not risk giving Ramos a qualifying offer, so he hits the market free of that issue.

14.  Rich Hill – Yankees.  Three years, $50MM.  Hill’s story is incredible.  After experiencing success with the Cubs as a late-blooming starting pitcher in 2006-07, the lefty with the big curveball endured shoulder and Tommy John surgery in 2009 and ’11, respectively.  Hill then bounced around in many different bullpens in the Majors and and minors, to the point where he joined the independent league Long Island Ducks in 2015.  A successful stint with the Red Sox in September last year, aided by some changes to his approach, led to a one-year, $6MM deal with the A’s.  Hill proved he was no fluke, and owns a stellar 2.13 in his last 152 1/3 innings for the Red Sox, A’s, and Dodgers (including the postseason).  Endurance is a huge question mark, however.  Hill turns 37 in March, and in 2016 missed significant time with a groin strain and blisters on his throwing hand.  When he’s able to take the mound, Hill has become dynamic enough to serve as Clayton Kershaw’s wingman.  But how many innings he can provide is anyone’s guess.  I believe his elite performance will still spark a bidding war that will lead to a three-year contract from teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Angels, Astros, Marlins, Red Sox, or Rangers.

15.  Jason Hammel – Braves.  Three years, $42MM.  Hammel, 34, was the surprise beneficiary of the Cubs’ decision to decline his $12MM club option for 2017.  According to a statement from Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, the parties had a verbal agreement that the team would not exercise his option and then trade him, and the World Champs are seeking a younger, controllable fifth starter.  Hammel has been a steady presence for the Cubs over the last two seasons, posting a 3.79 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and 1.28 HR/9 in 61 starts.  He’s a flyball pitcher, and his strikeout and walk rates did move a bit in the wrong direction this year, but Hammel is still easily one of the best free agent starting pitchers.  Though Hammel experienced elbow tightness in September, Epstein mentioned in his statement that the righty is healthy.  Unlike Hellickson, Hammel did not receive a qualifying offer, so the team that signs him will not have to surrender a draft pick.  Possible suitors include the Braves, Astros, Angels, Dodgers, Marlins, Phillies, Yankees, Mariners, and Rangers.

16.  Matt Wieters – Braves.  Three years, $39MM.  Wieters returned from Tommy John surgery in 2015.  After a limited season for the Orioles that year, he was compelled to accept the club’s $15.8MM qualifying offer in an attempt to rebuild value.  While Wieters re-established his health by starting 111 games at catcher, the switch-hitting former first-round pick had another mediocre year with the bat despite ranking eighth among full-time catchers with 17 home runs.  Still, he doesn’t turn 31 until May, and will likely be seeking a four-year contract.  The Orioles chose not to stick Wieters with a qualifying offer this time around, but could still have interest in a new deal.  If the O’s don’t retain their longtime catcher, the Braves, White Sox, Rockies, Astros, Angels, Twins and Nationals are possible fits.

17.  Josh Reddick – Giants.  Three years, $36MM.  Reddick, 30 in February, had his free agent stock take a tumble after the A’s traded him to the Dodgers this summer.  The right fielder ended up hitting .281/.345/.405 in 439 plate appearances overall, missing time with a fractured thumb.  While his power numbers should bounce back, Reddick has shown an inability to hit left-handed pitching.  Plus, his defense has fallen from Gold Glove caliber to below average in right field.  He should still generate solid interest, potentially from the Giants, Blue Jays, Orioles, Indians, Phillies, White Sox, Astros,  and Mariners.  A four-year deal remains possible.

18.  Neil Walker – Mets.  Three years, $36MM.  After an offseason trade from the Pirates to the Mets, Walker was enjoying his finest season until he had to undergo season-ending back surgery in September.  The second baseman faces a three-month rehab process, but the injury could prevent him from receiving four-year offers.  Plus, the Mets gave Walker a qualifying offer, which will limit interest from certain teams.  A return to the Mets remains possible, or the Angels, Dodgers, and Athletics could take a look.

19.  Carlos Gomez – Rangers.  Three years, $36MM.  Gomez, 31 in December, was a superstar center fielder for the Brewers in 2013-14.  After a July 2015 trade to the Mets fell through, Gomez was dealt to the Astros.  He was brutal for Houston, hitting .221/.277/.342 in 486 plate appearances while missing time with oblique, rib, and hamstring injuries.  After being released by the Astros in August, Gomez joined the Rangers and experienced a renaissance, hitting .284/.362/.543 with eight home runs in 130 plate appearances.  Gomez will likely attempt to land a decent-sized multiyear deal, but it’s possible he could settle for a one-year contract to rebuild value.  He could also try for the best of both worlds, signing a multiyear contract with an opt-out clause.  The long list of potential suitors could include the Rangers, A’s, Blue Jays, White Sox, Nationals, Mariners, Orioles, Indians, Dodgers, Phillies, Giants, and Cardinals.

20.  Michael Saunders – Orioles.  Three years, $33MM.  Saunders, 30 in November, was traded from the Mariners to the Blue Jays for J.A. Happ in December 2014.  A seemingly minor knee surgery became problematic, causing him to miss most of the 2015 season.  Saunders burst out of the gate this year, making the All-Star team and hitting .281/.366/.536 with 19 home runs in 396 plate appearances through July.  The wheels came off in the season’s final two months, in which he hit just .186/.267/.338.  Saunders also registered subpar defense at the outfield corners.  Saunders’ poor finish is likely what stopped the Jays from making a qualifying offer, so at least he won’t cost a draft pick to sign.  The Giants, Blue Jays, Orioles, Indians, Phillies, White Sox, Astros, Dodgers, and Athletics are potential suitors.

21.  Mike Napoli – Indians.  Two years, $28MM.  Napoli, 35, signed a one-year deal with the Indians in January.  He showed his best power in years, hitting 34 home runs in 645 plate appearances.  He also inspired an Indians fan to create the “Party at Napoli’s” slogan, with subsequent t-shirt proceeds going to help sick childen.  There are a few concerns about his game to consider.  Napoli’s first base defense graded below average in 2016, after years of above average marks.  Plus, his baserunning is a detriment.  On the plus side, he hits the market unencumbered by a qualifying offer.  If the Indians don’t re-sign him, the Orioles, Red Sox, White Sox, Rockies, Astros, Yankees, Mariners, Rangers, and Blue Jays could be interested.

22.  Kendrys Morales – Blue Jays.  Two years, $26MM.  Morales spent the last two years as a quality designated hitter for the Royals.  This season, he didn’t turn it on until June, after which he hit .296/.357/.531 in 423 plate appearances.  At age 33, a three-year deal might be hard to come by, and Morales’ market is limited to AL teams with DH openings.  Fortunately for Morales, he was not given a qualifying offer from the Royals.  Possible fits include the Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, White Sox, and Rangers.

23.  Greg Holland – Nationals.  Two years, $18MM.  Holland, 31 this month, was a dominant closer for the Royals before undergoing Tommy John surgery in October 2015.  Holland’s contract will likely depend on whether he was able to demonstrate his health to teams in his November 7th showcase.  If Holland is all the way back, interest will be strong.  A two-year deal is possible, especially if Holland gets an opt-out after the first year.  The Royals, Cubs, Giants, Yankees, Red Sox, Rockies, Marlins, Phillies, Mariners, Dodgers, Rangers, Nationals, and Diamondbacks could be interested.

Special note: In Chapman, Jansen, Melancon, and Holland, there are at most four quality closers available in free agency this winter.  With the Cubs, Dodgers, Nationals, Yankees, and Giants all likely seeking closers, at least one of these clubs is not going to get any of these four pitchers.  Keep in mind, also, that quality players are acquired via trade every winter.

24.  Travis Wood – Marlins.  Three years, $21MM.  Wood, 30 in February, has done a credible job in relief for the Cubs for the last two years.  Though the lefty’s peripheral stats aren’t great, in a thin market some teams will look at him as a candidate to return to the rotation.  Wood broke into the Majors as a starter for the Reds, and even made the All-Star team during a 200-inning season for the 2013 Cubs.  Wood’s youth and track record of durability could result in a three-year deal.  The Braves, White Sox, Astros, Royals, Angels, Dodgers, Marlins, Brewers, Yankees, Phillies, Athletics, Padres, Mariners, and Rangers could be possibilities.

25.  Neftali Feliz – Rockies.  Three years, $18MM.  After a terrible 2015 season, the Tigers chose not to tender Feliz a contract.  The 28-year-old made good on a one-year, $3.9MM deal with the Pirates, striking out 61 batters in 53 2/3 innings while displaying a 96 mile per hour fastball.  Feliz had Tommy John surgery in August 2012, and ended his 2016 season with a minor arm injury.  Assuming the recent injury is not a concern, Feliz ranks as the top setup man on the free agent market.  The Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Cubs, Reds, Rockies, Dodgers, Marlins, Twins, Yankees, Phillies, Giants, and Nationals are potential suitors.

26.  Brett Cecil – Mariners.  Three years, $18MM.  After Chapman, Cecil may be the top left-handed reliever on the market.  The 30-year-old was limited this year by a triceps strain, after which he punched out 36 hitters and walked five in 26 1/3 frames.  Overall, his numbers were inflated by a 20% home run per flyball rate and .344 batting average on balls in play, both of which should come down.  Cecil is tough on lefties and has shown the ability to retire right-handed hitters in the past.  Tony Sipp’s contract could be a model, with the Mariners, Mets, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Cubs, White Sox, and Marlins as potential suitors if the Blue Jays don’t bring him back.

27.  Brad Ziegler – Red Sox.  Two years, $16MM.  Ziegler, a 37-year-old side-arming right-handed reliever, boasts a 2.05 ERA over 136 innings from 2015-16 for the Diamondbacks and Red Sox.  Among relievers, only Mark Melancon, Andrew Miller, and Zach Britton have been better.  Though not known for punchouts, Ziegler whiffed more than a batter per inning after being traded to Boston.  But his real calling card is his groundball rate, which is second only to Britton over the last two seasons.  Opposite-handed hitters can be an issue for sidearmers, but Ziegler hasn’t experienced recent problems against lefty batters until 2016, when they hit .267/.380/.343 against him.  Nonetheless, he looks like one of the top setup arms on the market, and can likely be had on a two-year deal given his age.  A return to the Red Sox or D’Backs could fit, but the Reds, Rockies, Dodgers, Marlins, Yankees, Giants, Mariners, Rangers, and Nationals are other possibilities.

28.  Andrew Cashner – Pirates.  One year, $8MM.  Cashner, 30, hasn’t delivered on the hype since being traded for Anthony Rizzo in 2012.  Even with a decline, Cashner is the hardest-throwing free agent starter (93.5 miles per hour on his fastball), but he’s never consistently missed bats.  Plus, his groundball rate has steadily declined since his career-best 2013 season.  Cashner had flashes of success in his Padres career, but was awful after a July 2016 trade to the Marlins.  Plus, he’s only made 30 starts in a season once.  Cashner remains somewhat interesting, but is definitely a project.  The Rangers, Braves, Phillies, or Pirates could make sense, and the Orioles had interest at the trade deadline.

29.  Jason Castro – White Sox.  Two years, $15MM.  Castro, a 29-year-old catcher, hasn’t hit much for the Astros since his 2013 All-Star season.  As a left-handed batter, Castro has demonstrated particular issues against southpaws.  Still, the former first-rounder is one of the game’s better pitch framers and should still serve as a starting catcher somewhere.  A three-year deal is possible.  The Astros will look to retain him, otherwise the Nationals, White Sox, Braves, Orioles, Angels, Rockies, Rays, and Twins could be interested.

30.  Brandon Moss – Nationals.  Two years, $14MM.  Moss, 33, hit .225/.300/.484 with 28 home runs on the season for the Cardinals.  His overall line was dragged down by a brutal September, and he continued to demonstrate an inability to hit left-handed pitching.  Unlike some of the other free agents with this skill set, Moss may be passable enough in the field to be considered by National League teams.  The Nationals, Rockies, Angels, Rays, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, and Blue Jays could be possibilities.

31.  Luis Valbuena – Brewers.  Two years, $14MM.  Valbuena, 31 later this month, has long required a platoon but showed signs of life against lefties in a small sample this year with the Astros.  Overall, the third baseman managed a solid .260/.357/.459 line in 342 plate appearances before hamstring surgery ended his season.  Valbuena also has recent career experience at second and first base.  The Astros may move on, but teams like the Brewers, Cardinals, Angels, Red Sox, and Mets could be interested.

32.  Joe Blanton – Marlins.  Two years, $14MM.  Blanton, 36 in December, joined the Dodgers on a one-year deal and proved his 2015 resurgence was no fluke, posting a strong 2.48 ERA in 80 innings as the team’s setup man.  While he doesn’t have big velocity, Blanton is able to get outs with a starter’s arsenal.  Aside from his age, one potential concern is his low 32.5% groundball rate.  Still, interest should be strong, with the Giants, Red Sox, Rockies, Nationals, Diamondbacks, Reds, Padres, Twins, and Marlins among the possible matches if the Dodgers don’t re-sign him.

33.  Carlos Beltran – White Sox.  One year, $14MM.  Beltran, 40 in April, raked for 99 games with the Yankees this year but dropped off a bit after a deadline deal to the Rangers.  Though he played over 500 innings in right field, Beltran is likely limited to an American League team.  The veteran switch-hitter is putting the finishing touches on an illustrious career, and ranks fourth among active players with 421 career home runs.  The Rangers could bring him back, or the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Indians, Astros, Royals, Orioles, or White Sox could have interest.  A two-year deal is possible, if Beltran wants to commit to it.

34.  Sergio Romo – Dodgers.  Two years, $14MM.  Romo, 34 in March, suffered a flexor strain in April and missed three months.  After his return, he found his way back to the Giants’ closer role in late September.  Romo has been a Giants mainstay since they drafted him in 2005, posting excellent strikeout to walk ratios every year since his 2008 debut.  He can struggle with the longball, and at 85.8 miles per hour on average, he throws one of the slowest fastballs among all relievers.  There still could be enough interest for a two-year deal, with probably a dozen potential suitors.

35.  Sean Rodriguez – Padres.  Two years, $12MM.  Rodriguez, 32 in April, posted a surprising .270/.349/.510 line in 342 plate appearances for the Pirates this year.  He showed off his versatility by logging innings at every position other than catcher.  Such a strong utility season will attract plenty of interest, and Rodriguez could even land a three-year deal.  The Angels, Dodgers, A’s, Giants, Braves, Padres, and Blue Jays could be potential matches.

36.  Santiago Casilla – Reds.  Two years, $12MM.  Casilla, 36, is another reliever who seems like he’s been on the Giants forever.  Casilla spent most of the last two years as their closer, putting up solid peripherals aside from issues allowing home runs.  It might be time for a change of scenery, and a two-year deal is possible.  Certain non-contending teams, like the Reds and Twins, may be able to offer higher-leverage innings to relievers like this.

37.  Jon Jay – Indians.  Two years, $12MM.  Jay, 32 in March, was hitting .296/.345/.407 for the Padres until he broke his forearm in June.  He may be able to break out of the fourth outfielder mold and find a starting job somewhere, in any of the outfield spots.  Jay could be of interest to the Orioles, White Sox, Indians, Astros, Athletics, Phillies, Giants, Mariners, or Blue Jays.

38.  Fernando Salas – Twins.  Two years, $12MM.  Salas, 31, was mediocre for the Angels this year but excellent after a trade to the Mets.  Salas struck out 19 batters against zero walks in 17 1/3 innings for New York.  He’s one of several right-handed, homer-prone relievers who will be seeking multiyear deals this winter.

39.  Boone Logan – White Sox.  Two years, $12MM.  Logan, 32, signed a three-year, $16.5MM deal with the Rockies after the 2013 season.  His first two seasons went poorly, but the lefty finally found success this year.  Part of that was a low BABIP, and Logan does have issues with right-handed batters.  Still, decent lefty relievers are often at a premium in free agency.  The White Sox, Cubs, Blue Jays, Brewers, and Mariners are a few potential options.

40.  Matt Holliday – Rangers.  One year, $10MM.  Holliday, 37 in January, traded walks for power this year, to his detriment.  After providing so much value for the Cardinals since joining the organization in 2009, Holliday’s defense and health issues may necessitate a move to the American League for the twilight of his excellent career.  Teams like the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers, Orioles, White Sox, or Royals could make sense.

41.  Bartolo Colon – Mets.  One year, $10MM.  Colon, 43, has proven surprisingly durable in making 125 starts from 2013-16.  He made the All-Star team for the Mets this year, despite little change in his pitch-to-contact, low walk skillset.  The big righty could continue providing stability for the Mets, or find plenty of interest on the open market.

42.  Steve Pearce – Yankees.  Two years, $10MM.  Pearce, 34 in April, continued his lefty-mashing ways in 2016 for the Rays and Orioles, but also had success against righties.  He spent most of his time at first base, second base, and designated hitter this year.  His bat remains interesting, and perhaps he can find the two-year deal that eluded him last winter.  One mitigating factor is that Pearce had season-ending surgery to repair a flexor mass in his right forearm, which has a four to six month recovery time.

43.  Matt Joyce – Athletics.  Two years, $10MM.  After a terrible 2015 campaign for the Angels, Joyce joined the Pirates on a minor league deal in February.  He wound up starting 48 games in Pittsburgh, mainly as a corner outfielder, and also contributed off the bench.  Joyce drew a walk in more than 20% of his plate appearances, contributing to a valuable .242/.403/.463 line.  He could be a useful addition for the Orioles, Athletics, Blue Jays, Astros, Phillies, and several others.

44.  Nick Hundley – Angels.  Two years, $10MM.  Hundley, 33, hit .282/.330/.455 in 706 plate appearances over his two years with the Rockies, leading all catchers in slugging percentage during that time.  This year, at least, he was actually a better hitter on the road.  He started 77 games at catcher for Colorado this year, a number that would have been higher had he not missed nearly a month with an oblique injury.  Hundley has been one of the game’s worst pitch framers during his time with the Rockies, but I think he still fits somewhere as a second division starting catcher.  He could generate interest from the Nationals, Braves, Orioles, Angels, Astros, Rays, and Twins if the Rockies move on.

45.  Eric Thames – Rays.  Two years, $10MM.  Thames, 30 this month, logged 684 lackluster Major League plate appearances for the Blue Jays and Mariners at age 24-25, back in 2011-12.  He headed to Korea in 2014 and became a star, crushing 124 home runs in three seasons there.  While offense is greatly inflated in Korea, it’s possible Thames could return to MLB as a left fielder/first baseman/DH and provide a cheap source of power from the left side.  Assuming Thames doesn’t return to Korea or head to Japan, the Orioles, Rays, Phillies, A’s, Giants, Rockies, Mariners, and Blue Jays could be possibilities.

46.  Charlie Morton – Royals.  One year, $8MM.  Morton, 33 this month, is an under-the-radar rotation candidate who will sign a one or two-year deal.   The Pirates traded Morton to the Phillies in December 2015, but he suffered a season-ending hamstring injury in late April.  Assuming the medicals check out, the groundballing righty should retain the skills for a sub-4.00 ERA in 2017.  The Phillies could bring him back, or the Royals, Braves, Reds, Rockies, Astros, Angels, Marlins, Padres, Mariners, Rangers, and Athletics could be matches.

47.  Edinson Volquez – Phillies.  One year, $8MM.  Volquez, 33, had the magic wear off in his second year with the Royals.  Though he pitched slightly better than his 5.37 ERA indicates, Volquez has a thin margin for error since he walks nearly 9% of batters faced.  He’ll be enlisted to soak up innings at the back end of someone’s rotation.

48.  R.A. Dickey – Braves.  One year, $8MM.  Dickey, a 42-year-old knuckleballer, has had difficulty keeping the ball in the yard in his four years with Toronto.  He’s not able to miss many bats, and his walk rate jumped upward this year.  Dickey can still eat innings, assuming he finds a situation to his liking and wants to continue pitching.  A note on the Braves: we’re envisioning a scenario where they sign a free agent to a short-term contract, and add a second starting pitcher via trade.

49.  Chase Utley – Angels.  One year, $8MM.  Utley, 38 in December, generated quiet value as a league average second baseman for the Dodgers in 2016.  His struggles against left-handed pitching continued, so he may need to accept a platoon role next year.  If the Dodgers move on, the Angels or Mets could make sense.

50.  Derek Holland – Padres.  One year, $6MM.  Unable to find a taker in a trade, the Rangers chose a $1.5MM buyout over Holland’s $11.5MM club option for 2017.  Holland, a 30-year-old southpaw, had been in the Rangers’ organization since being drafted in the 25th round in 2006.  He overcame a 2010 rotator cuff injury and had a successful run from 2011-13, posting a 3.98 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and 1.14 HR/9 over 586 1/3 innings.  Holland had microfracture knee surgery in January 2014. missing most of that season.  A left shoulder strain cost him most of the 2015 season, and then shoulder inflammation cost him two months this year.  He finished the season in the Rangers’ bullpen, and did not make the team’s division series roster.  With a clean bill of health, Holland would generate solid interest on a one-year deal.

Honorable mentions: Kwang Hyun Kim, Hyeon-jong Yang, Jae-gyun Hwang, Daniel Hudson, Junichi Tazawa, Mike Dunn, Daniel Descalso, Colby Lewis, Koji Uehara, Mitch Moreland, Jhoulys Chacin, Rajai Davis, Pedro Alvarez, Angel Pagan, Adam Lind, Colby Rasmus, Drew Storen, Kurt Suzuki, Brett Anderson, Jerry Blevins

Twins Introduce Derek Falvey, Thad Levine

By | at

It’s been an uncharacteristically jarring few months for the Twins organization. In the midst of just the second 100-loss season in the post-D.C. history of the franchise, the Twins parted ways with longtime executive Terry Ryan, breaking with their usual pattern of organizational continuity. Months later, they officially have two key new executives in place, and on Monday, they introduced their new hires, Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine, to the Minnesota media.

The Twins’ reputation for loyalty is a big reason why jobs with the organization are coveted in the industry, Levine said at today’s press conference. “People all over the game would like to work for the Twins,” Levine said. “But part of that loyalty from ownership means that it’s perceived as a difficult organization to get into as well.”

Twins CEO Jim Pohlad admitted to having virtually nothing to do with the Levine hire. “I had not met Thad until last night,” Pohlad said. “It was Derek’s entire decision to hire Thad, and we couldn’t be happier.” Pohlad added that he wouldn’t stand in the way of Falvey’s need to add resources to beef up the team’s analytics department, which currently is a three-person operation.

Falvey and Levine, along with as longtime assistant GM Rob Antony, will head out Monday evening to the general manager’s meetings in Arizona. If that seems a bit sudden, it’s because it is. The Twins had to wait to formalize hiring Falvey until his Indians were eliminated from the playoffs, per a handshake agreement between the two clubs. When that took seven games — plus a rain delay — to materialize, it meant the timing would naturally be a bit hurried.

Falvey said he wasn’t too worried about that, even if it would be a bit of a crash course over the next few days up to and after free agency formally opens on Tuesday. In his mind, it’s going to be good for the three minds to converge upon the offseason together, as he can bring the best of his information from the Indians organization, Levine the same from the Rangers and Antony from the Twins to blend it all into what ends up being their offseason path.

Falvey joins the Twins from the Indians organization, where he was third in command behind team president Chris Antonetti and general manager Mike Chernoff. Falvey joined the Indians in November 2007, and ascended quickly before settling in for the last year as the assistant general manager. 

Levine joins the Twins from the Rangers organization, where he’d spent more than a decade working under current GM Jon Daniels. Levine started in baseball with a brief stint with the Dodgers before joining the Rockies full-time in 1999, ultimately becoming Senior Director of Baseball Operations. 

There’s no question addressing the pitching staff will be paramount to whatever path Falvey and Levine take this offseason, and they’re keenly aware of it. The Twins ranked last in starting pitching ERA (5.39), and the bullpen wasn’t much better (4.63, 26th). With little in the way of MLB-ready pitching in the pipeline (considering the struggles of Jose Berrios and the relative lack of certainty with Stephen Gonsalves and Kohl Stewart), Falvey said he’s aware the team is going to have to get creative in supplementing the pitching staff.

“With pitching, I think you want to explore every avenue and opportunity to add talent,” Falvey said. “Whether that’s being opportunistic in the free agent market, or through trades, or through unique development philosophies, which I think are things that we will apply moving forward, there’s no one way to attack that. This year’s free agent market is a little lean on the pitching side, so I think we have to explore every opportunity that we have to develop the players we have internally, and figure out what it is that we need to do to develop the strengths into useful pieces at the major league level.”

Part of working on the pitching staff will be evaluating players in-house to determine what assets the club has to move around to acquire pitching in addition to what it might find on the market. Falvey wasn’t prepared to go down that road mere minutes into his tenure, but he did suggest the team would search high and low, internally and externally, to revamp the club’s woebegone pitching staff.

“I think we’ll spend time over the next week in Arizona to dig in and talk to other teams about needs and fits and what the landscape looks like for this offseason,” Falvey said. “We will commit to being collaborative in our approach to pitching development. It’s something I feel very strongly about. Utilizing different resources to help us develop the current pitchers that are on the staff and the players coming up through the minor leagues. We wouldn’t shut out any avenue to acquire or develop a player, and I expect that will be a slight change from how we’ve operated here, but I look forward to leading that.”

Falvey’s vision isn’t limited to the pitching side, though it can be easy to focus on that part. Not only are the Twins coming off an incredible run of subpar pitching — including carrying an MLB-worst K/9 every year from 2011-15 — but the Indians are coming off the seventh-best ERA in baseball. Beyond that, the Indians found some of their best pitchers in unlikely places. Corey Kluber came in the Jake Westbrook trade and was far from an instant success. The same can be said of Carlos Carrasco, who came over in the Cliff Lee deal with the Phillies and needed multiple years and even a stint in the bullpen to find his way. Mike Clevinger, who is one of the team’s more promising young pitchers, arrived in a deal for a broken-down Vinnie Pestano. That sort of resourcefulness, if Falvey can duplicate it in Minnesota, will only serve to make the search for pitching more interesting for Twins fans.

“The goal here is straightforward and measurable,” Falvey said. “It’s to build a sustainable and championship-caliber team and organization that Twins fans across Twins Territory will be proud of. Thad and I know there are no shortcuts to getting there. We intend to relentlessly identify, pursue and advance top-performing people, cultivate world-class process and build a culture that’s collaborative and transparent to achieve our goals.”

Falvey didn’t stop there, as he promised wide-sweeping changes to the “Twins Way,” which is such a key phrase that the organization made it the address when they opened Target Field at “1 Twins Way” in downtown Minneapolis.

“The Twins Way will be to thrive together,” Falvey promised at the outset of the conference. “That’s important to me. Both Thad and I have grown and experienced a measure of success within organizational cultures that understand the value in creating balanced systems, designing, implementing and evaluating processes and rewarding hard work and professional character, both on and off the field. We will root our decision making in evidence-based practices, both subjective and objective in nature, which means a commitment to understanding the metrics, but always making human decisions. That will never change. There is no substitute for the people and the input from our senior leadership group.”

Poll: Will Yoenis Cespedes Re-Sign With Mets?

By | at

In perhaps the least surprising development of the young offseason, star outfielder Yoenis Cespedes officially opted out of the two years and $47.5MM remaining on his contract with the Mets and become a free agent Saturday. One reason Cespedes chose to re-sign with New York on a three-year, $75MM deal last offseason was its willingness to give him a three-day opt-out window after the 2016 World Series. Now, having taken advantage of that exit clause, Cespedes is back on the market as arguably the top player available.

Yoenis Cespedes

In an underwhelming free agent class, the 31-year-old Cespedes likely stands the best chance of landing a nine-figure accord prior to next season. Cespedes reportedly could have inked a five-year, $110MM contract with the Nationals last winter, but their offer came with a decade of heavily deferred payments that would have reduced the present-day value of the deal to $77MM. Back then, Cespedes was part of a class that featured seven players who signed contracts ranging from $110MM to $217MM in total value. Two of those standouts, Jason Heyward and Justin Upton, were fellow outfielders.

Cespedes won’t encounter competition along the lines of Heyward and Upton this year, which should help his cause in securing the highest-paying deal of the winter after he slashed .280/.354/.530 with 31 home runs in 543 plate appearances in 2016. That was the third excellent offensive season in the five-year major league career of Cespedes, a lifetime .272/.325/.494 hitter who has accounted for 18.6 fWAR and 18.7 bWAR in a combined 2,978 PAs with the Athletics, Red Sox, Tigers and Mets.

Having already played for four teams in a half-decade, the Cuban emigree has been a nomad since signing with Oakland in 2012. If Cespedes receives the type of deal he desires in the next few months, his days of switching uniforms should be over – at least for a while. Of course, now the question is whether he’ll remain in Queens or head to his fifth major league destination. Cespedes hopes to stay with the Mets, who acquired him from the Tigers prior to the 2015 trade deadline, but New York hadn’t opened contract talks with him as of Wednesday and once again doesn’t want to exceed three years on a contract. We’ll find out soon enough whether that’s unrealistic on the part of the Mets. In the meantime, they’ll tender Cespedes a qualifying offer by Monday’s deadline in order to receive a first-round pick as compensation if he signs elsewhere.

Ideally for the Mets (and for the player, it seems), they’ll re-up Cespedes to continue serving as the nucleus of their lineup. But considering they’re wary of engaging in a bidding war, it’s possible we’ve seen the last of Cespedes in a Mets uniform. How do you expect free agency to play out for him?

(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)

Will Yoenis Cespedes re-sign with the Mets?
No 67.82% (8,976 votes)
Yes 32.18% (4,259 votes)
Total Votes: 13,235

 

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

By | at

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

Myriad injuries helped jeopardize the Mets’ postseason chances in 2016, but the team went on a tear over the final month and a half to secure its second straight playoff berth. Another World Series appearance wasn’t in the cards, though, as the Mets ran into October buzzsaw Madison Bumgarner and fell to the Giants in the National League wild-card game. Now, for the second offseason in a row, New York is in danger of losing lineup cornerstone Yoenis Cespedes.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

Mets Depth Chart; Mets Payroll Information

When the Mets acquired Cespedes from Detroit prior to the 2015 non-waiver trade deadline, they were three games above .500 and at risk of missing the playoffs for an eighth consecutive season. After his move to New York, Cespedes slashed an outstanding .287/.337/.604 to help lead the club to a 37-22 regular-season finish and an NL East title. Cespedes’ bat cooled off in the playoffs, particularly during the Mets’ five-game World Series loss to the Royals, but the outfielder was nonetheless instrumental in their return to relevance and would have been a significant loss had he signed elsewhere as a free agent. It appeared that would happen, but after he couldn’t find any offers to his liking on the market, Cespedes shockingly re-signed with the Mets on a three-year, $75MM deal in late January. That agreement came with a catch for the Mets, though: They had to give Cespedes a three-day opt-out window after this year’s World Series.

"<strong

Shortly after the Fall Classic between the Cubs and Indians concluded, Cespedes unsurprisingly voided what was left of his contract in order to take another shot at free agency. Having batted .280/.354./530 with 31 home runs in 534 plate appearances this past season, the 31-year-old likely has a better chance than any other impending free agent to land an accord worth upward of nine figures. Cespedes has expressed a desire to spend the rest of his career with the Mets, but it’s difficult to envision him falling into their laps again on a deal similar to the one he just vacated.

This winter’s class of free agents is far less enticing than the group from last year, when fellow outfielders Jason Heyward and Justin Upton were among seven players to secure pacts well in excess of $100MM. That should drive up the price to sign Cespedes, for whom the Mets reportedly aren’t willing to engage in a bidding war or go past the three-year mark on a new contract. Between Cespedes’ opt-out and his latest foray into free agency, the Mets will issue him a qualifying offer. If he signs elsewhere, they’ll receive a first-round draft pick as compensation.

Read more

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top