MLBTR Originals

Assessing The Indians’ Options At Catcher

By Steve Adams | August 17, 2016 at 12:31pm CDT

The Indians are in first place in the American League Central, yet they possess one of the most glaring weaknesses of any contender in the game. Cleveland catchers this season — Yan Gomes (currently injured), Roberto Perez and Chris Gimenez — have combined to bat a staggering .172/.225/.296 in 457 plate appearances. The company line has been that they’re high on the defensive capabilities of each backstop, but no club in all of Major League Baseball has received worse production out of its catchers. How best to remedy that situation — or whether they even need to — is up for debate.

Obvious Trade Candidates

Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes today that Cleveland has had some discussions with the division-rival Twins about Kurt Suzuki in the past, but “there’s nothing happening at the moment.” Suzuki cleared trade waivers yesterday, making him a logical candidate for any club in need of catching help. The main sticking point for Cleveland, it seems, is that Suzuki isn’t regarded as a strong defender, and he would obviously be tasked with learning an entirely new pitching staff in a short amount of time in the event that the Indians made a move. That’s a tall order for any catcher, and it could conceivably lead to further difficulty in framing/blocking pitches if he’s not fully familiar with the full arsenal of each pitcher he’s catching. Then again, Suzuki is affordable (owed $1.5MM through season’s end) and hitting .281/.321/.435 — an enormous upgrade over the offensive deficiencies that have plagued Cleveland catchers in 2016.Read more

Another obvious candidate for Cleveland would be the only other catcher that is known at this time to have cleared trade waivers: Brian McCann. The defensive question marks that surround Suzuki aren’t as prevalent with McCann. While the Yankee backstop is admittedly having a down season in terms of throwing out runners, his 23 percent is still better than Suzuki’s 19 percent, and he’s traditionally been more adept at controlling the running game. Likewise, McCann routinely posts above-average framing marks, per Baseball Prospectus, while Suzuki perennially ranks as one of the worst in the game at stealing extra strikes for his pitchers. It’s probably a surprise to some that haven’t paid close attention to see that Suzuki, though, has actually been the better hitter of the two this season in terms of both average and slugging percentage.

The difficulty with regards to McCann, however, is that he’s owed $34MM beyond this season, and there’s almost certainly no way the Indians would be willing to take on that type of coin. The Yankees would have to eat a substantial amount of McCann’s remaining salary for any type of serious consideration, and they’d accordingly ask for a greater return in terms of prospects if they continue to shoulder the bulk of McCann’s contract. On a speculative note, though, McCann would seem to be a good fit for the rotating catcher/first base/designated hitter role that prompted Jonathan Lucroy to veto a deal to Cleveland. And, speaking of no-trade clauses, McCann does have full no-trade rights under his deal with the Yankees, so he’d have to approve of the move.

Names That Could Become Available

Derek Norris could (and perhaps should) be listed in the previous category, but there’s no official word that he’s cleared waivers yet so I kept him in this bucket for now. At any rate, the Padres’ catcher has seen his bat go ice cold again in recent weeks after showing promise from May through mid-July. Norris got off to one of the worst starts of any big league hitter this year but largely righted the ship and looked to be hitting his way back into trade candidacy. But, in 80 plate appearances since the All-Star break, he’s hitting .113/.213/.127, making him look more like a non-tender candidate than a trade candidate.

Digging a bit deeper, I looked at the trade market for catchers last month and listed a number of names that were rentals and some that were controllable beyond the current season. The latter group is probably off limits now (with the exception of the aforementioned McCann and Norris), but a number of potential rentals figure to be available.

Carlos Ruiz still draws plenty of walks for the rebuilding Phillies and could at the very least provide some OBP from behind the plate. The Rockies have wilted as of late, falling to 9.5 games back in their division and 6.5 games back of the second Wild Card spot. If Nick Hundley hasn’t already been placed on trade waivers, he very well could be in the near future. It’s no certainty that he’d clear, but he’s another affordable rental piece that could theoretically help Cleveland if he makes it to them unclaimed. Geovany Soto of the Angels represents another option that figures to land on trade waivers and could make his way to Cleveland, if he’s not first blocked by a club like Detroit in an effort to prevent Cleveland from adding any sort of alternative to their incumbent options. [Editor’s Note: Soto was placed on the 15-day DL after this post was published.] Likewise, Mariners catcher Chris Iannetta could hit the wire now that Mike Zunino is hitting well, but Iannetta is in a Norris-esque free fall at the moment himself.

The Case for Staying the Course

For all of their offensive woes behind the plate, the fact of the matter is that Cleveland is six games up on the AL Central. They’re 10th in the Majors in terms of caught-stealing percentage from their catchers, having halted exactly one third of the attempts against them, and more impressively, the Indians have had the fewest steals attempted against them of any MLB team — just 57 tries. It’s still possible that Gomes returns from a separated shoulder next month and brings his strong framing skills and rocket arm with him, further increasing the club’s defensive prowess. Any addition, at this point, would likely be made for the purposes of adding some punch to the postseason roster, but framing extra strikes (or simply ensuring that actual strikes on the fringe of the zone are called) and preventing stolen bases are of magnified importance in the playoffs. Cleveland could simply elect to prioritize those elements over adding another solid, but unspectacular bat to a lineup that has already scored the fourth-most runs in baseball even with a dearth of offensive production from behind the plate.

All of that said, I’ll open this one up to our readers for debate in the comments and in the following poll (link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)…

How should the Indians address their catching situation?

Pursue a trade for Brian McCann 29.64% (1,767 votes)

Stick with internal options 22.74% (1,356 votes)

Pursue a trade for Kurt Suzuki 21.64% (1,290 votes)

Wait to see which other names reach them on waivers (or clear waivers) 16.19% (965 votes)

Pursue a trade for Derek Norris 9.80% (584 votes)

Total Votes: 5,962

Forecasting The Free Agent Qualifying Offer Market

By Mark Polishuk | August 16, 2016 at 1:00am CDT

With six weeks of regular season and the entire postseason still to come, there’s obviously a lot of time for this winter’s free agents to improve (or, unfortunately, lower) their stock in the open market. There’s also the fact that the qualifying offer as we know it could be altered if the league and the players’ union come to terms on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement within the next month or so, as several players and agents have voiced concerns about how the current QO system can adversely impact a free agent’s market. (Though even if that occurs, it may not come into effect for the coming offseason.)

But hey, it’s never too early for some speculation, right? Last offseason saw a record 20 players receive qualifying offers, and for the first time, some of them (Colby Rasmus, Brett Anderson, Matt Wieters) accepted the one-year contracts rather than hit free agency. Anderson and Wieters were hoping to have healthier seasons in 2016 that would lead to richer multi-year deals this offseason, while Rasmus simply seemed to want to stay in Houston because he so enjoyed the environment, particularly in the wake of some clubhouse issues with other teams in his career. With teams and players both seemingly becoming more comfortable with the QO, it will undoubtedly once again play a big factor in several free agent cases this year.

A quick recap: the qualifying offer is a one-year contract (this year expected to be worth $16.7MM) that a team can offer to any of its own free agents. The QO must be issued within five days of the conclusion of the World Series, and if the player accepts, he remains with the team. If he rejects it and ends up signing elsewhere, the team will get compensation in the form of a bonus draft pick after the first round. The team signing the QO free agent will have to surrender a first-round draft pick (or a second-rounder, if the team owns protected a top-10 draft selection), and teams who sign multiple QO free agents will have to give up their top pick in a later round. For instance, the Tigers held the #9 overall pick in the 2016 draft, so when they signed Jordan Zimmermann and Justin Upton last offseason, they kept their first-rounder and surrendered their second- and third-round choices. Teams re-signing players who declined qualifying offers lose the chance to add that compensatory selection.

Since a qualifying offer can only be issued to a player who has been on a team’s roster for an entire season, several pending free agents who were moved at the trade deadline won’t have to worry about draft pick compensation hanging over their markets. This applies to such notable names as Aroldis Chapman, Carlos Beltran, Josh Reddick, Mark Melancon, Rich Hill and Steve Pearce, all of whom would’ve ranged from locks to decent bets to receive qualifying offers.

It’s not impossible that one of the remaining names cited is also traded, though it’s pretty unlikely given that most of them are playing for pennant contenders and those who aren’t would likely be blocked during the August trade waiver process. So with this in mind, let’s look at who could be weighing a one-year, $16.7MM contract after the season…

The Easy Calls

Yoenis Cespedes, Ian Desmond, Edwin Encarnacion, Dexter Fowler, Kenley Jansen, Scott Kazmir, Wilson Ramos, Michael Saunders, Mark Trumbo, Justin Turner, Neil Walker

Barring a major injury or something unexpected over the last two months, all of these players are more or less no-brainers to receive (and reject) qualifying offers in search of multi-year deals. Cespedes and Kazmir would have to exercise their opt-out clauses to hit free agency, while Fowler has a mutual option, and all three seem likely to hit the open market. The most questionable of the bunch are Saunders and Trumbo, who have both been ice-cold at the plate since the All-Star break. Since these two don’t have quite the track records of the other players in the group, if these extended slumps for Saunders/Trumbo turn into full-on second-half fades, the Blue Jays and Orioles could each respectively have some qualms about making either player a qualifying offer.

Kazmir may not seem like as much of a slam-dunk as the others, though his peripherals (9.31 K/9, 2.87 K/9 rate) and ERA predictors (4.35 FIP, 3.98 xFIP, 3.94 SIERA) imply a more solid performance than his 4.44 ERA over 127 2/3 IP may indicate. Of course, he has also had late-season struggles in each of the last two years. The way Kazmir’s contract with the Dodgers is structured, however, it seems like the club is fully planning to issue the lefty a QO. If he fades down the stretch again, Kazmir may not opt out of his deal at all, so the QO is a moot point. If Kazmir opts out, it will be because he’s pitched well enough to believe he can top the two years/$32MM he’s owed through through 2018 under his current deal, so naturally the Dodgers would feel comfortable tagging him with a QO (which he’ll no doubt weigh in deciding whether to opt out).

Unique Cases

Jose Bautista, Jeremy Hellickson

Bautista is on the DL due to a knee sprain, he missed another month of the season due to a sprained toe, and he is hitting just .222/.349/.444 with 15 homers over 355 plate appearances. Needless to say, his preseason hopes at a deal in the range of four years/$120MM or perhaps even more than five years and $150MM have been dashed. It will take a big September (and, possibly, postseason) for Bautista just to rebuild his market to the $50MM neighborhood, since teams won’t be rushing in with big guarantees for a slugger coming off an injury-filled down year in his age-35 season.

Despite the disappointing campaign, Toronto will surely still issue Bautista a qualifying offer on track record alone. The question now is, could Bautista actually accept? A case could be made that the slugger could take the QO and then hope for a healthy return to form next season so as to better position himself for free agency. Bautista has been candid about looking for fair market value in his next contract after he greatly outperformed his last extension with the Jays, so if he’s only facing two-year/$30MM or three-year/$45MM offers in the wake of his lackluster 2016, he may see that as settling (since obviously Bautista expects to rebound next season). With a big 2017, however, Bautista could possibly still land a three-year deal in the $60MM-$75MM range even though he’ll be 37 on Opening Day 2018. It would be pretty stunning to see Bautista actually accept a qualifying offer, though remember, last winter we all thought there was no way a Scott Boras client would accept a QO until Wieters make his surprise decision.

Despite healthy interest from other teams, Hellickson was rather surprisingly still a Phillie after the August 1 trade deadline passed. That could be because the Phillies put a high price tag on his services, though it could also be a sign of how teams value Hellickson — despite his strong 2016 season, he put up some rough numbers from 2013-15 and even his early-career success with the Rays was buoyed by outperforming his peripheral statistics. If teams weren’t willing to give up a high price for Hellickson at the deadline, would they really be willing to give up a high draft pick for him this winter?

With this in mind, there’s a chance Hellickson could accept when the Phillies take the very likely step of issuing him the QO. A $16.7MM payday would more double his career earnings, and two good seasons would put him in line for a very lucrative deal in the 2017-18 offseason (and if the rebuilding Phillies trade him at next year’s deadline, that removes the qualifying offer from the equation). Based upon what we know now, though, I would guess that Hellickson is a better bet to reject the QO since the free agent pitching market is so terribly thin. In a normal year, Hellickson might run the risk of emulating Kyle Lohse and Yovani Gallardo as pitchers who had to wait a long time in free agency or take less-than-expected offers due to the qualifying offer impacting their markets. This winter, the list of available starters is so short that Hellickson might be the best arm on the market.

TBD

Doug Fister, Brandon Moss, Mike Napoli, Martin Prado

These four veterans are having good seasons, though their QO fate may hinge on how they hold up until the end of the year. After a rough April, Fister has quietly enjoyed a good rebound year in Houston, even if the advanced metrics aren’t fans of his performance. The Astros may not want to risk paying $16.7MM to Fister when they have other young rotation arms in the fold and they could find another innings-eating veteran at a lesser price, and Houston may be more cautious about issuing qualifying offers this winter in the wake of Rasmus’ acceptance and subsequent disappointing 2016 season. Like Hellickson, though, Fister could benefit from the thin pitching market and take the leap of faith in rejecting a QO in the hopes of finding a richer multi-year deal.

The 33-year-old Moss is set to hit free agency for the first time, and he’ll surely be looking to capitalize on what could be his only shot at a lucrative multi-year contract. So, while $16.7MM is probably more than St. Louis would ideally like to pay Moss next year, the Cardinals can be reasonably confident he would reject the qualifying offer in search of that big deal. (It’s also possible that contract could come from the Cards anyway, as they’re interested in re-signing Moss.)

Napoli is another first baseman who is back to his old slugging ways after a down year in 2015, though while he could also end up back with his current team, I question the chances of the Indians issuing him a qualifying offer given their payroll limitations. A $16.7MM salary would make Napoli by far Cleveland’s highest-paid player in 2017, and there’s certainly a chance he could accept that deal rather than look for a multi-year pact elsewhere given Napoli’s history of accepting smaller offers to remain in comfortable, winning environments. It’s worth noting that while Napoli rejected a QO back in the 2013-14 offseason, he could see it as more of a limiting factor on his market now given that he turns 35 in October. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Tribe issue a QO just to keep their bases covered and for Napoli to reject it, only for the two sides to agree to a two-year contract just as Napoli did with Boston three years ago.

Payroll could also be a factor in Prado’s case, as while the Marlins love his veteran leadership (and, of course, his solid production), they might not want to risk paying him quite so much, even on a one-year deal. There’s also the fact that Miami has Derek Dietrich waiting in the wings to replace Prado at third base, though that succession plan may no longer be quite as set-in-stone given how Dietrich has cooled off following a tremendous opening two months. The Marlins may feel Prado is worth the risk, and of course, there’s also a good chance he turns the QO down — even with draft compensation attached, Prado will get a lot of free agent attention as a respected veteran who wields a good third base glove, has multi-position versatility and is enjoying his best hitting season in four years.

Unlikely Candidates

Pedro Alvarez, Santiago Casilla, Bartolo Colon, Rajai Davis, R.A. Dickey, Colby Lewis, Wieters, Anderson, Rasmus

Of course, this category expands to everyone else in this year’s free agent market, though these names merit some particular mention. The $16.7MM price tag for veterans like Colon, Davis, Dickey, Lewis and Casilla is simply too pricey even if they’re all enjoying okay-to-very good seasons. Alvarez will only be 30 next season, but while he’s been a good source of power for the Orioles, I doubt they’re willing to spend that much on a player who only hits right-handed pitching and provides no defensive value. With those same limitations plus a draft pick compressing his market, I bet Alvarez would accept a QO if the O’s extended it.

Finally, we have the trio who made history by accepting qualifying offers last winter, and it’s an understatement to say that 2016 hasn’t gone as expected for any of the three. Wieters and Rasmus simply haven’t hit, while Anderson underwent back surgery in March and is only now making his first appearance of the season. These experiences could serve as cautionary tales for, say, players like Bautista or Hellickson. Accepting a QO and then having another poor or injury-plagued year in 2017 would just about ruin Bautista’s earning power entirely, so it could behoove him to take a modest two- or three-year offer just to lock in more security. If Hellickson passes on a multi-year deal now in favor of accepting the Phillies’ qualifying offer, a reversion back to his 2013-15 form would put him back at square one in terms of earning potential.

Knocking Down The Door: Alcantara, Cecchini, Cotton, Cowart, Holder, Schultz

By Jason Martinez | August 15, 2016 at 5:09pm CDT

This week’s installment of Knocking Down the Door features thee starting pitchers, two of whom combined for 16 shutout innings and 23 strikeouts in their last starts. Also making appearances are a reliever who began the season in High-A and a pair of infielders who were both former 1st Round draft picks.

Raul Alcantara and Jharel Cotton, SP, Oakland Athletics (Triple-A Nashville)

Ross Detwiler might have bought himself several more starts in the A’s rotation after last week’s masterpiece (8 IP, 0 R, 6 H, 0 BB, 2 K), but Andrew Triggs and Zach Neal haven’t earned the chance to stick around much longer. As a result, it’s a good time to be pitching well down in Triple-A Nashville, where Raul Alcantara and Jharel Cotton have each positioned themselves to be next in line for a big league start.

While the 23-year-old Alcantara is probably reaching the end of the line for his 2016 workload—he’s at 120.2 innings after making only 18 starts in 2014-15 because of injuries—the A’s could probably squeeze one or two more starts out of him. The way he’s pitched since a promotion to Triple-A (0.59 ERA, 30.2 IP, 20 H, 3 BB, 22 K), it wouldn’t be a bad idea if he made those starts with the big league club.

Cotton, acquired from the Dodgers in the Josh Reddick/Rich Hill trade, has made an outstanding early impression on his new organization. After allowing a run and six hits while striking out five batters over six innings in his Nashville debut, the 24-year-old right-hander turned it up a few notches in his second start when he tossed a one-hit shutout with no walks and 12 strikeouts. At 112.1 innings on the season, it wouldn’t be a major surprise if Cotton is added to the rotation before the end of the month and is able to make at least 2-3 starts before he’s shut down.

Athletics Depth Chart

Gavin Cecchini, SS, New York Mets (Triple-A Las Vegas)

It was T.J. Rivera who finally got the call to help a struggling big league team last week. While that was very much deserved, his former teammate, shortstop Gavin Cecchini, is still waiting for the call despite being just as deserving.

Jose Reyes’ return from the disabled list probably won’t help, but the 22-year-old Cecchini is making it difficult for the Mets to overlook him much longer. With 17 hits in his last 44 at-bats, the former 1st Round pick has his slash line up to .318/.387/.440 on the season. The scouting reports say he might not be good enough to be a big league regular down the road. His performance in the upper minors the past two seasons (.300+ batting average, .800+ OPS, 83 BB, 99 K), however, tells us that he should at least be given a long look against Major League pitching before determining that.

If the Mets fall any further back in the playoff race, they’ll need to look ahead to 2017. In either case, it would be a good time to see what they have in Cecchini.

Mets Depth Chart

Kaleb Cowart, 3B, Los Angeles Angels (Triple-A Salt Lake)

The Angels might be the worst team in baseball right now. Looking to the future is difficult with the pitching staff in shambles due to elbow injuries and possibly the thinnest farm system in baseball. Still, they need to find out if there is anyone down there worth auditioning for a job in 2017. Kaleb Cowart is starting to make a case.

The 24-year-old third baseman, who has seen his stock rise and fall drastically a handful of times since he was a 1st Round draftee in 2010, has a .942 OPS in his last 30 games, including a big 3-for-4 day on Sunday with a homer and two doubles. Even if Yunel Escobar and Albert Pujols are locked into the third base and designated hitter spots, respectively, Cowart’s versatility—he’s played 1B, 3B, SS and LF during his professional career—should allow him to play somewhere on a regular basis for the next month-and-a-half.

Angels Depth Chart

Jonathan Holder, RP, New York Yankees (Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre)

A funny thing happened after the Yankees deciding to become “sellers” at the trade deadline. They’ve played well enough to stay within striking distance of a playoff spot. Their infusion of young hitting talent could help offset the loss of Carlos Beltran, but they’re extremely thin in the bullpen without Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller. If there’s a relief pitcher that’s at least worth a look as someone who can help bridge the gap to Tyler Clippard and Dellin Betances, it’s Jonathan Holder.

The 23-year-old right-hander, who started the season in High-A — where he pitched in 2015 as a starter — has posted a 1.92 ERA with impressive peripherals (5.4 H/9, 1.1 BB/9, 12.8 K/9) in his 37 relief appearances between High-A (2 games), Double-A (28 games) and Triple-A (seven games).

Whether it’s to help a team that’s just hanging on to slim playoff hopes or as an audition for a team that will be shopping for bullpen help this upcoming offseason, Holder has earned himself a trip to the Bronx in the very near future.

Yankees Depth Chart

Jaime Schultz, SP, Tampa Bay Rays (Triple-A Durham)

It was Matt Andriese that was next in line for a rotation spot when the Rays traded away Matt Moore. Who is next after Andriese isn’t clear, although Jaime Schultz is starting to separate himself from the pack after his last two starts for Triple-A Durham.

After striking out double-digit batters in two of his first 22 starts on the season, the 25-year-old right-hander doubled that total with 10 and 11 strikeouts, respectively, in his last two, which included eight shutout innings on Saturday. With Andriese getting knocked around in his last two major league outings, we could find out soon if Schultz, who has a 3.02 ERA to go along with 4.4 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9, has done enough to get the call.

Rays Depth Chart

“Knocking Down the Door” is a weekly feature that identifies minor leaguers who are making a case for a big league promotion.

MLBTR Originals

By Connor Byrne | August 14, 2016 at 8:16am CDT

Here’s a recap of the original analysis MLBTR offered this week:

MLBTR was pleased to welcome guest author Burke Badenhop on Friday. Badenhop, who was a successful reliever with the Marlins, Rays, Brewers, Red Sox and Reds from 2008-15, detailed how September roster expansion affects bullpens.
The non-waiver trade deadline passed on Aug. 1, and several potential movers didn’t end up going anywhere. Steve Adams highlighted 11 of those players and polled readers on whose non-trade was the most surprising.
Jeff Todd examined the stock of Nationals catcher Wilson Ramos in advance of his potential foray into the free agent market during the upcoming offseason. Ramos has stayed healthy and performed like an elite backstop this year, so he looks primed for a substantial payday.
As a result of the Astros designating center fielder Carlos Gomez for assignment, Steve increased his August trade candidate rankings from 20 players to 21. Given that there’s reportedly a stronger likelihood of Houston trading Gomez than releasing him, the former star immediately took the top spot on the list.

Top 20 Trade Candidates: August Edition

By Steve Adams | August 12, 2016 at 7:52pm CDT

Since last week’s edition of MLBTR’s Top 20 trade candidates, we’ve seen Jim Johnson get pulled back off revocable waivers, thus all but eliminating the possibility of a trade. James Shields had another catastrophic outing — eight earned runs in 1 1/3 innings — making it even more difficult to envision him being moved (though he’ll assuredly clear waivers when he’s placed on them, if he hasn’t already). The activation of Trevor Plouffe and Peter Bourjos from the DL has landed each a spot on the list, and some of the holdovers have been rearranged a bit. (Side note: Rather than knock Ryan Braun off the list following Carlos Gomez’s DFA, I simply elected to expand the list to 21 this week. Bonus player!)

Carlos Gomez, OF, Astros: Gomez leaps from not ranked to the No. 1 candidate following his DFA earlier this week. The Cardinals and Mets are among the teams with interest, and ESPN’s Mark Saxon tweeted that a trade was more likely than a release earlier today.
Derek Norris, C, Padres: Norris still isn’t hitting, but the Padres’ motivation to move him keeps him near the top of the list for me. San Diego can see Austin Hedges in September when rosters expand, of course, but getting him to the Majors sooner and giving him more of an opportunity to play even in September by moving Norris makes all the sense in the world.
Danny Valencia, 3B/1B/OF, Athletics: As injuries around the league continue to pile up — Matt Adams, Matt Holliday Jose Bautista, Scott Van Slyke, Nick Castellanos and Ryan Zimmerman have all gone on the DL since last week’s list was written — the potential landing spots for Valencia rise. He’s a poor fielder but a legitimate asset at the plate.
Peter Bourjos, OF, Phillies: Bourjos won’t be a marquee addition, but now that he’s off the DL there seems to be a high likelihood that he’ll be moved. He was in a 1-for-17 slump at the time he was placed on the DL, but Bourjos batted .307/.347/.479 in 152 plate appearances in June and July, and he’s long had a terrific defensive reputation. The Phillies may want to get names like Roman Quinn and Nick Williams more at-bats in September, and flipping Bourjos to a team in need of a fourth outfielder that can handle center makes sense.
Yasiel Puig, OF, Dodgers: Puig’s off-field antics since being demoted can’t have helped him work his way back into the good graces of his current employers. His bat has continually declined as his approach at the plate has worsened, but there’s enough upside here to tantalize a team with some fluidity in its long-term corner outfield picture.
Brian McCann, C, Yankees: One of only two known players to clear waivers so far, McCann can be traded to any team, but the Yankees will have to shift from their reported reluctance to help pay down McCann’s remaining $17MM annual salary (as first reported by FanRag’s Jon Heyman) if they hope to move him and clear a spot for Gary Sanchez to play regularly.
Kurt Suzuki, C, Twins: Not much has changed on the catching front, but the Indians, Red Sox, Mets and others could make sense for a short-term upgrade behind the dish (though it strikes me as unlikely that Suzuki would get to the Mets or even to the Indians on waivers).
Melky Cabrera, OF, White Sox: As noted in the Valencia bullet, there’s been a rash of outfield injuries around the league, and though Cabrera’s ChiSox career started slowly, he’s mashed since June of last year. The $13MM he’s owed in 2017 doesn’t look unreasonable in light of a .295/.338/.449 slash over his past 917 plate appearances.
Trevor Plouffe, 3B, Twins: Plouffe hasn’t hit in 2016, but he was a slightly above-average bat with average or better defense at the hot corner from 2014-15. That makes his upside more along the lines of a solid regular (think David Freese with the Angels) than a star, but a club with corner infield needs could certainly look to Plouffe and hope for improved performance now that he’s healthy. He’s controllable through 2017 and shouldn’t earn much of a raise on this year’s $7.25MM salary due to all of the missed time.
Ervin Santana, SP, Twins: Santana might be the best “available” pitcher on the August market, though the Twins weren’t overly motivated to move him even prior to the non-waiver deadline. He’s owed $28MM in 2017-18 with a 2019 option. Santana is a legitimate mid-rotation starter on a reasonable contract, so the Twins are understandably asking for a fairly significant return in advance of this summer’s woefully poor free agent market for starting pitching.
Adam Lind, 1B, Mariners: Dan Vogelbach hasn’t hit much at all since being picked up in the Mike Montgomery trade, so the urgency to move Lind isn’t as great as it could be. Dae-ho Lee, too, has seen his offense tail off in recent weeks. Lind is hitting better of late which could make him more marketable but also makes him increasingly important to a Mariners club that is just one game out of a Wild Card berth at the moment.
Edinson Volquez, SP, Royals: Reports out of Kansas City continue to suggest that the Royals could make Volquez a qualifying offer, and I remain extremely skeptical. Volquez’s ERA is now north of 5.00 once again after he was rocked in three straight starts. I advocate for teams acting aggressively in extending qualifying offers, as I think accepting rarely makes sense for the player, but barring a late surge, I don’t see how Volquez could reject. It’s in the Royals’ best interest to get some value for him right now if a team is willing to make such an offer (which is no sure thing).
Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Phillies: I hesitate to list Hellickson this high, because it seems unlikely that the Phillies will get a better offer now than they did prior to the non-waiver deadline when they could negotiate with each contending club. Hellickson is a lock to be claimed, but perhaps injuries or an even thinner market for starters in the month of August will motivate the claiming club to make a more substantial offer.
Jeff Francoeur, OF, Braves: Francoeur has cleared waivers and can be dealt anywhere, though the Braves apparently are only willing to do so if they receive some degree of prospect in exchange. Atlanta values Francoeur’s clubhouse presence and doesn’t seem keen on moving him just to open a spot for a younger player or to save a small amount of cash. Francoeur isn’t the most exciting bat and has highly limited range in right field but does still possess a strong throwing arm.
David Robertson, RP, White Sox: With more than $25MM still owed to him and an underwhelming stat line on the year, Robertson isn’t especially likely to go. However, he drew interest from clubs looking for impact bullpen arms, and he figures to clear waivers, giving the White Sox ample opportunity to explore trades with teams in need of relief help. That’s especially true if a contender decides it needs to try for a significant pen upgrade despite the risk. Robertson has a long track record of excellence, and probably carries more upside than any other potentially available relievers.
Ian Krol, RP, Braves: Krol has only allowed one baserunner in his past 6 2/3 innings. He’ll finish the season a couple weeks shy of three years of service, so he’s on target to be a Super Two eligible reliever that is controllable through the 2020 season. He could be a future piece for the Braves, but Atlanta moved a highly controllable lefty in Hunter Cervenka and could do the same with Krol.
Jeanmar Gomez, RP, Phillies: I’m not especially confident that Gomez will move after the Phillies didn’t find an offer to their liking prior to the non-waiver deadline, but as an affordable short-term asset (controllable through 2017) on a rebuilding club, Gomez will be on the list until he’s either traded or pulled back off revocable waivers.
Nick Markakis, OF, Braves: Markakis is on fire and has even found some pop as of late (two homers in August, .128 ISO since the All-Star break). That could be enough to attract attention, but he’s still a near-lock to clear waivers. He makes more sense as an offseason trade candidate to me, but if a team believes he’s regaining some pop the further removed he is from 2014 neck surgery, then perhaps an August swap can be achieved (if, of course, the Braves eat some money).
Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees: The Yankees made a clear move toward getting younger in July, and dealing the still-quite-useful Gardner would help toward that end, as he’s still a strong enough performer to warrant some solid minor league talent. There’s still $28.6MM on his contract, though, so he’s similar to an outfield version of Ervin Santana — an effective veteran that isn’t teeming with surplus value but comes at a fair price.
Clay Buchholz, SP, Red Sox: Buchholz has had a terrible season but has thrown better as a reliever as of late. A team like the Marlins that is in great need of a back-of-the-rotation arm could roll the dice on Buchholz if the cost of acquisition is low. Buchholz is getting a start this weekend, and how he looks in that outing could impact his candidacy.
Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers: Braun is going to be the best hitter to clear waivers this month, but he has four years remaining on a $105MM extension after this season, recent health issues in his past and comes with the negative PR associated with his steroid suspension. The Brewers want prospects over salary relief with Braun, whose no-trade clause was reportedly a non-starter in the Brewers’ brief talks with the Braves.

Injured, Could Return In August

Jon Jay (Padres), Logan Morrison (Rays), Jed Lowrie (Athletics), Huston Street (Angels), Steve Cishek (Mariners)

Also Considered

Yunel Escobar, Fernando Salas (Angels); Jorge De La Rosa, Boone Logan, Jake McGee (Rockies); Ian Kennedy, Kendrys Morales (Royals); Shelby Miller (D-backs); Matt Garza, Chris Carter (Brewers); John Jaso (Pirates); Ryan Madson (Athletics); Brandon Kintzler (Twins); Zack Cozart (Reds)

Free Agent Stock Watch: Wilson Ramos

By Jeff Todd | August 11, 2016 at 7:51pm CDT

With 380 outstanding plate appearances under his belt this year, it seems fair to say that Wilson Ramos has finally arrived for the Nationals. And he’s done so at an opportune moment for himself as well as the team, as he’ll hit the open market after the season.

Ramos, who turned 29 just yesterday, has had quality campaigns before, but injuries and inconsistencies had raised questions about his future. Coming into the year, it wasn’t even clear whether the Nats would stake an important campaign on the aptly-nicknamed “Buffalo.” Though he was back at full health last year, Ramos had compiled only a .245/.275/.375 batting line over his prior two campaigns, and the Nationals were often cited as a possible suitor for a new backstop via trade or free agency.

Instead, the team bet on Ramos’s talent, and that decision has paid off in spades. Over his 96 games of action entering play today, Ramos owns a .336/.384/.549 slash with a career-best 18 home runs. Even better, he has done that while improving his strikeout (12.6%) and walk (7.4%) rates. Offseason LASIK surgery was cited as a reason for optimism heading into the year, and it certainly seems as if there’s reason to buy into that explanation. Ramos is hitting the ball hard and on a line more than ever before, which helps to support his .347 BABIP (which does still also point to some expected regression). Plus, as noted above, it’s not as if this outburst comes totally out of the blue. Ramos ran up a .269/.327/.449 batting line over 2011-13, though he only managed 834 plate appearances in that span due to an ACL tear suffered in 2012.

There obviously are some limits to Ramos’s game. He is one of the worst baserunners in baseball, owing to his monster frame. And that bulk also creates some questions about how he’ll age, particularly given that he has dealt with hamstring issues in the past (along with the unfortunate ACL injury and a hamate break). On the other hand, Ramos is rather agile for his size. And he credits an improved offseason workout program for his successes in 2016 — even moreso, perhaps, than the LASIK procedure.

Those factors also tie into Ramos’s work behind the dish, which hasn’t always drawn rave reviews. He has received fairly solid ratings from Baseball Prospectus (as you can find at his BP player card, with a subscription that is well worth considering). Ramos rates well as a pitch framer, though the Stat Corner metrics don’t quite agree on that front. Though he scoops more than he blocks pitches in the dirt, Ramos draws average marks in stopping errant balls. And he’s also rated well with a .349 caught-stealing percentage on the year, which is down a shade from his league-leading .444 mark from 2015. While it’s hard to assess pitch calling and the other nebulous duties of a receiver, Nats manager Dusty Baker says he likes what he sees from Ramos and thinks he still has the ability to improve.

In the aggregate, Ramos leads all catchers with 3.6 fWAR thus far in 2016. His re-emergence ranks as one of the biggest drivers of D.C.’s division-leading effort to this point. Given his importance to the team, and the lack of a clear successor, it is fair to wonder whether there’ll be a late attempt at an extension. Though GM Mike Rizzo has said recently that he’s a believer in Ramos’s talent and thinks a new deal could happen at any time, Ramos has been left waiting on contract talks thus far.

Assuming he does reach free agency, Ramos will join a fairly long list of backstops. At this point, though, he has staked a claim as the top target, especially with Francisco Cervelli already extended by the Pirates. Matt Wieters accepted a qualifying last winter in hopes of a turnaround season, but he’s not delivering thus far. Jason Castro’s excellent 2013 effort is further and further in the rearview mirror. Kurt Suzuki, has had a nice year, but he has an uneven track record and will be entering his age-33 season. Other current or former starting backstops — Nick Hundley, A.J. Ellis, A.J. Pierzynski, Geovany Soto, Alex Avila, Chris Iannetta, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Carlos Ruiz among them — don’t come with nearly the upside of Ramos and probably aren’t really even part of the same market.

Indeed, Ramos recently cracked the free agent power rankings of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, taking the number eight slot alongside other players who will likely be looked upon as potential impact veterans. Dierkes calls a five-year deal a reasonable target, and that does indeed seem plausible — especially when one considers that Ramos won’t turn thirty until next August. The two clear targets in free agent catching contracts are Russell Martin (five years, $82MM) and Brian McCann (five years, $85MM). These comps may not be as much of a stretch as they seem at first glance. Martin had a monster platform year offensively and was a highly-regarded field general, but he was also entering his age-32 campaign and lacked much of a track record of big results at the plate. And though McCann was a top-tier player for some time before his contract, he also had injury issues and one recent season of sub-par offensive production on his record when he signed that deal with the Yankees.

It’s far from certain at this point that Ramos will be able to command that kind of money, but it also seemed questionable that Martin would reach McCann’s stratosphere until his market came together. With relatively few impact players available at premium defensive positions, and Ramos having put some daylight between himself and the other available catchers, demand could be strong. Even teams with solid but non-premium backstops could consider him an upgrade — at least if he keeps this up the rest of the way. The Nats certainly seem like a leading contender for Ramos’s services. Otherwise, the division-rival Braves are said to be hunting for a catcher while organizations like the Tigers, Red Sox, Angels, Orioles, and Astros are among those that could conceivably join the hunt.

Needless to say, there’s plenty of time for interest to materialize and for Ramos to change his fate through his play on the field. He’ll need to stay healthy and productive to maximize his earning ceiling. But as things stand, there may not be a single pending free agent who has improved his stock as much as Ramos has thus far in 2016.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Bullpen Help Is On The Way

By Burke Badenhop | August 11, 2016 at 11:22am CDT

Burke Badenhop made his Major League debut on April 9, 2008 when he tossed a scoreless inning of relief for the Marlins. In the eight years that followed, he tossed 512 1/3 innings of 3.74 ERA ball with the Marlins, Rays, Brewers, Red Sox and Reds. He’s been a part of four trades (most notably the Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis blockbuster), tested Major League free agency and been in more than a dozen Major League and minor league clubhouses. We’re thrilled to have Burke bring some of that unique perspective to a guest post on MLB Trade Rumors.

What does August mean to a bullpen?

August means two things to me. August is time to start prepping for my next amazing fantasy football team (shameless plug, check out profootballrumors.com!) and it’s time to really grind on the mound. Now, it’s important to grind every day of every season, but I found it easier to grind in August. August starts the home stretch. August starts the promise of expanded rosters in September. August is juuuuuust when you can start to see the light at the end of the 162-game tunnel.

To the casual fan, expanded rosters are a time to see that top prospect they’ve heard so much about. For a team, it’s a chance to see how a player’s skills translate to the big leagues. For a bullpen, September call-ups pump new blood at a time you need it the most.

Having extra men out in the ‘pen means there’s much more of a safety net every night. No more having to worry about covering seven innings if your starter gets knocked out in the second frame. Young guys with options can rest easier knowing they won’t be sent to the minors simply because you just played 16 innings that night and need fresh arms for tomorrow. Other relievers with tired arms might be able to grab an extra day of rest. Without these worries, it’s easier to focus on the task at hand. It’s easier to grind.

Now I’m not saying that you should work your hardest in August just to coast in September. That should never be an option. September isn’t a breeze. Your team counts on you to perform regardless of the month of the year or your place in the standings. If you coast, you’re liable to lose your job to one of those guys that was just called up.

A Major League season is impossibly long, though. August is usually a time when a team will play 17 or 20 straight games before having an off day. Seeing September on the horizon just gives you a feeling that you’re going to make it. That everything is going to be ok. That your arm isn’t going to fall off, despite its persistent efforts to do just that. August means that the dog days of summer will soon end. That it won’t be long ‘til you have to find your long sleeves in the back of your locker. August is a time to grind.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Most Surprising Non-Trade Prior To The Deadline

By Steve Adams | August 8, 2016 at 12:17pm CDT

Heading into last Monday’s non-waiver deadline, there was no shortage of trade candidates that many expected to be moved (or hoped would be moved). While 20 of the names on MLBTR’s final list of top trade candidates did indeed find new homes, there were still quite a few that stayed put. A quick rundown…

Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies: As an impending free agent that is enjoying a resurgent campaign on a rebuilding team, Hellickson was the prototypical trade candidate. He’s affordable, effective and was seemingly in demand, with as many as a eight teams connected to him at various points throughout deadline season. However, he’s still with the Phils and now looks likelier to end up the recipient of a qualifying offer than to be traded in August.
Jeanmar Gomez, Phillies: Gomez entered the season as a middle reliever that was ticketed more for a multi-inning role than high-leverage spots, but he was placed into the ninth inning by manager Pete Mackanin out of necessity early in the year and hasn’t looked back. Gomez is controllable through 2017, so there’s still time to move him if the Phillies wish (be it this month, in the offseason, or next year), but late July was arguably the highest his trade value has ever been.
Derek Norris, Padres: The Friars reportedly shopped Norris quite heavily in the weeks leading up to the deadline, likely hoping to move him in order to clear a spot on the roster for Austin Hedges. The Rangers, Astros and Brewers were among the teams to show late interest, but Norris ultimately stayed put. He’s controllable through 2018, so the Padres can explore trades for quite some time, but with his replacement absolutely obliterating Triple-A pitching and the Padres aggressively shopping veterans, he seemed a likely candidate to move.
Kurt Suzuki, Twins: A well-timed hot streak for Suzuki looked like a stroke of good fortune that would allow Minnesota to extract some value in exchange for the free-agent-to-be heading into the deadline. Suzuki was quietly one of the league’s hottest hitters in June and July (.333/.362/.533), making his $6MM salary look plenty affordable. He could go in August, but a trade is obviously more difficult now.
Jim Johnson, Braves: Atlanta has been willing to trade virtually everyone on its roster other than Freddie Freeman and Julio Teheran, and Johnson was a natural candidate to be dealt. He’s on a cheap one-year deal and has pitched brilliantly since returning from a DL stint in early June. His name was all over the rumor mill heading into last Monday’s deadline, but he’s still in Atlanta a week later. A waiver deal can’t be ruled out, but the Braves will be faced with a much more limited market.
Zack Cozart, Reds: Cozart looked to be on his way to Seattle early last Monday with the deadline just hours away, but the medical hangups in the Reds’ Jay Bruce trade with the Mets reportedly slowed their ability to finalize the details on the Cozart deal with the Mariners. Cozart is controlled through 2017 and could be shopped again this winter, but an August deal looks unlikely since he’s a lock to get claimed — probably by a team with higher waiver priority than the Mariners. The Reds know they’ll be able to market him to more clubs and drive up the price this offseason.
Yasiel Puig, Dodgers: There’s some hindsight in play here, as Puig looked like a trade candidate as the deadline loomed but looks more likely to be done as a member of the Dodgers a week later now that they’ve added a new right fielder (Josh Reddick) and demoted Puig to Triple-A. Knowing how much Los Angeles had soured on Puig, it’s fairly surprising that no agreement was reached prior to the non-waiver deadline.
Danny Valencia, Athletics: Despite the fact that Valencia has been one of Oakland’s most productive hitters this year, the A’s called up prospect Ryon Healy and gave him Valencia’s everyday job at third base. Valencia is bouncing around the diamond now, but with just one year of club control remaining beyond the 2016 season, he looked like a very solid bet to be on the move following his displacement at the hot corner.
Jake Odorizzi, Rays: Odorizzi and teammate Matt Moore were rumored to be drawing interest from seemingly half the league prior to the deadline, but it was Moore who ended up moving. Odorizzi can be controlled through 2019, so there was no rush to move him, and the Rays ultimately elected to move just one of their young arms.
Yunel Escobar, Angels: What’s perhaps most surprising about Escobar, who is hitting well on a fourth-place team and has a reasonable club option for the 2017 season, is that his name scarcely surfaced on the rumor circuit. Escobar seemed like an obvious candidate based on his productivity and contract, but perhaps questions about his reputation and the Angels’ desire to compete in 2017 made trade chatter minimal.
Chris Sale, White Sox: I never considered a Sale trade to be all that likely, but there was plenty of speculation about it, and many were captivated by the idea of one of the game’s best pitchers (and one of the game’s best contracts) changing hands. His clubhouse tirade a week prior to the deadline only fueled speculation about his availability.

All that said, it’s time for everyone to weigh in (link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)…

Who was the most surprising player NOT to be traded prior to the non-waiver deadline?

Jeremy Hellickson 36.61% (3,975 votes)

Yasiel Puig 16.20% (1,759 votes)

Derek Norris 9.93% (1,078 votes)

Chris Sale 9.43% (1,024 votes)

Danny Valencia 6.82% (740 votes)

Jim Johnson 6.63% (720 votes)

Zack Cozart 4.72% (512 votes)

Jake Odorizzi 2.82% (306 votes)

Kurt Suzuki 1.92% (209 votes)

Jeanmar Gomez 1.68% (182 votes)

Yunel Escobar 1.63% (177 votes)

Other 1.62% (176 votes)

Total Votes: 10,858

MLBTR Originals

By Connor Byrne | August 7, 2016 at 8:06am CDT

Here’s a recap of the original analysis MLBTR offered this week:

With another month of the 2016 campaign in the rearview mirror, Tim Dierkes updated his free agent power rankings for the upcoming offseason. The top 10 consists of eight position players and two relievers, further illustrating the weakness of the winter’s starting pitching market.
The passing of the non-waiver trade deadline doesn’t mean the fun is over, which Steve Adams pointed out in listing the 20 likeliest players to end up dealt this month.
In this week’s “Knocking Down the Door” feature, Jason Martinez looks at prospects from the Cardinals, Indians, Yankees, Phillies and Mariners. All five players mentioned are making serious cases for major league promotions.

Top 20 Trade Candidates: August Edition

By Steve Adams | August 5, 2016 at 4:10pm CDT

The non-waiver trade deadline is in the rear-view mirror, and in the since last installment of MLBTR’s Top Trade Candidates, we’ve seen 20 of the players listed on the Top 50 list moved (including each of the top eight) as well as a few names that had originally just missed the cut (Hector Santiago, Joaquin Benoit) and a few that missed the list entirely (e.g. Brandon Guyer, Mike Montgomery, Scott Feldman). The end result drastically altered the top of the list.

Derek Norris, C, Padres: The Padres still have Austin Hedges demolishing Triple-A El Paso, and with Christian Bethancourt also playing well this year, Norris doesn’t look like a future piece for the Friars. They could hope he rebuilds some value in August and look to move him this winter, but they were shopping him hard in late July and there’s no reason to think they won’t be motivated to move him in August whether he’s claimed or clears trade waivers.
Adam Lind, 1B/DH, Mariners: Lind hasn’t hit in his lone season with Seattle, and the Mariners picked up another left-handed-hitting power bat for first base/DH in the form of Dan Vogelbach. GM Jerry Dipoto didn’t hesitate to move disappointing veterans (e.g. Benoit, Wade Miley, Joel Peralta), and the Mariners have Dae-ho Lee as insurance even if Vogelbach proves unready.
Yasiel Puig, OF, Dodgers: We debated Puig’s placement on the list internally, but I left him with a high ranking not because I feel he’ll clear waivers, but rather because it’s easy to see a team like the Braves (who currently have pole position on the waiver wire) being genuinely motivated to get a deal worked out if they claim him. I can’t see many, if any teams passing on Puig, but in the off chance that he does clear waivers, he becomes even more likely to be dealt.
Jim Johnson, RP, Braves: Johnson is cheap and has pitched well since returning from a DL stint on June 3 (1.69 ERA, 23-to-10 K/BB ratio, 55.6 percent ground-ball rate in 26 2/3 innings). The Braves explored deals for him prior to the non-waiver deadline, and a claiming team would probably give up a low-level prospect in order to add him to its bullpen for six or seven weeks (plus a potential postseason run).
Danny Valencia, 3B/1B/OF, Athletics: Even after the trade of Josh Reddick, Valencia still isn’t getting regular playing time in Oakland. Ryon Healy is the top option at third base now, while Valencia jumps between both infield and outfield corner spots. He’s affordable, he’s mashing for the second straight year, and while he doesn’t have defensive value or a great clubhouse rep, Valencia’s bat makes him appealing to a number of teams.
Kurt Suzuki, C, Twins: Interim GM Rob Antony told MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger that he had some talks pertaining to Suzuki but nothing that compelled him to make a deal. Suzuki could easily be blocked if a team that doesn’t need a catcher claims him to stop him from reaching Cleveland (e.g. Seattle), but he can help a fringe contender if he gets there on waivers.
Melky Cabrera, OF, White Sox: Cabrera isn’t challenging for any batting titles as he’s done in the past, but the switch-hitter is batting .297/.340/.455 with 20 homers dating back to June 1 of last season. He doesn’t provide any defensive value, but then again neither does Jay Bruce, who just netted the Reds a pair of nice prospects. Cabrera is priced the same in 2017 as Bruce ($13MM), and offers more OBP with less pop. He’s not as good of a hitter, but the difference between the two is a lot smaller than many realize when looking at the raw power numbers.
Brian McCann, C, Yankees: McCann’s going to clear waivers by virtue of the $39.4MM left on his contract through 2018 (as of this writing), and at that point whether or not he’s moved will probably come down to how much money the Yankees are willing to eat to move him and clear a spot for Gary Sanchez to take the reins behind the plate.
James Shields, SP, White Sox: Like McCann, Shields is all but a lock to clear waivers. He’s pitched well enough lately that the White Sox might not have to eat too much more of the $27MM he was owed upon their June acquisition of Shields. The peripherals on Shields are ugly, but a team in need of a back-of-the-rotation arm could consider him somewhat of a buy-low option if it believes that even his 2015 form can be rediscovered.
Ervin Santana, SP, Twins: Minnesota doesn’t have an urge to move Santana — if they did, he’d be higher up on this list — and he’s pitched well enough that he could be claimed despite the $28MM he’s owed from 2017-18. Santana isn’t a steal, but he’s a fairly priced mid-rotation arm that could reportedly be obtained with a strong offer. Given the dearth of pitching on this year’s free agent class, a team could look to begin its offseason shopping this summer.
Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Phillies: I had Hellickson higher on this list originally, but if the Phillies didn’t find an offer to their liking in July, they’ll face a tougher time in finding a suitable offer in August. Hellickson is a lock to be claimed by an NL contender — likely the Pirates, Mets or Marlins — either to block him from other contenders or to try to work out a trade to help a beleaguered rotation. Perhaps a deal can be worked out in the allotted 47-hour window, but not trading Hellickson by the deadline suggests that the Phils are truly comfortable with the notion of a qualifying offer.
Edinson Volquez, SP, Royals: Volquez has pitched poorly this summer and was absolutely shelled in his first post-deadline trade. If he rights the ship perhaps he’ll hold some appeal to other clubs, but he’s a pitcher with a reputation for inconsistency that is flirting with his third season of a 5.00 ERA or worse since 2011. That he’s owed $6.5MM through season’s end (including the buyout of a mutual option) doesn’t help his value.
Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers: Braun’s contract will clear waivers. However, the Brewers want legitimate prospects in a trade, and any trading partner will almost certainly want some fairly significant financial relief. Whether GM David Stearns and another club can find that nexus in the next three weeks is the question. It didn’t happen in June or July and probably won’t in August, but the very fact that he’ll be available to any team after clearing waivers has landed him on the back half of this list.
David Robertson, RP, White Sox: With another $28.5MM owed to him through 2018, Robertson is a near lock to clear waivers as well. He hasn’t pitched up to his standards this season, so it’s tough to see a club parting with premium talent based on his results from a dominant 2014 season — his last elite campaign.
Ryan Madson, RP, Athletics: There’s $17.06MM remaining on Madson’s deal through 2018, and the peripherals here are ugly as well. He’s saved 22 games, but his deteriorating strikeout and walk rates and the complete disintegration of his ground-ball tendencies make even his fairly modest 3.74 ERA look like somewhat of a mirage.
Brandon Kintzler, RP, Twins: He’s a useful reliever that isn’t earning anything substantial this year due to the fact that he signed a minor league pact in the offseason. Kintzler is controllable through 2017, and while he’s not as good as his 2.08 ERA would indicate, he’s allergic to walks and has an enormous 64.2 percent ground-ball rate. He’s not going to be viewed as a closer, but the money, ground-ball rate and control would make him an appealing middle-relief pickup for a claiming team.
Jeanmar Gomez, RP, Phillies: The Phils apparently didn’t get an offer they liked in July and have hung onto Gomez despite a lackluster track record. He’s cheap enough and having a solid enough season that he’ll be claimed on the wire. He’s a similar case to that of Hellickson, though; if the Phillies didn’t get an offer they liked in the non-waiver period, will they get something more considerable when they can only negotiate with one team?
Nick Markakis, OF, Braves: There’s still $24.3MM remaining on Markakis’ contract, and while he’s actually displayed some of the pop that had been missing from his bat over the past month, that’s too much for any team to claim him. He should clear and give the Braves will have an opportunity to discuss him with all 29 other teams.
Daniel Hudson, RP, D-backs: The Diamondbacks said they weren’t interested in just giving Hudson away, and unless that’s changed since another brutal outing on Aug. 2, he’ll probably remain with the team. It’s tough to envision a club giving up anything of value for a reliever with an unthinkable 26 earned runs allowed in his past 9 2/3 innings, even if there’s plenty of upside to be had. (And there is with Hudson.)
Zack Cozart, SS, Reds: It’s a stretch to list Cozart, as there’s no way he clears waivers, and the Reds aren’t actively seeking to move him. He’ll be claimed, and not necessarily by a contending club — Cozart is controllable through 2017 — so the only way he’ll be moved is if someone offers a legitimate package. If he had a chance at making it to the Mariners, who nearly acquired him on Monday, it would be likelier, but Cozart would have to clear every NL team and half of the AL as well — that’s an extreme long shot.

Injured

Jon Jay, OF, Padres: As a productive free-agent-to-be playing for a rebuilding Padres club that effectively posted an “Everything must go!” sign out in front of Petco Park in July, Jay would probably top the list if he were healthy. He’s slated to come back in mid to late August and should be dealt if he can prove his health even for a few games.

Trevor Plouffe, 3B, Twins: Plouffe is nearing a return and doesn’t necessarily have a place in Minnesota now that the Twins have halted the ill-conceived Miguel Sano-in-the-outfield experiment. He’s a free agent next season and has established himself as a solid defender at third with 20-homer pop. That hasn’t been the case this season, but he could clear waivers given his recent injury and 2016 struggles, at which point the Twins could get creative in finding a deal for him.

Peter Bourjos, OF, Phillies: Bourjos set the world on fire at the plate in the month of June, and even though it wasn’t sustainable, the hot streak brought his batting line up to an acceptable place. Combined with his speed, defensive reputation and $2MM salary, that should make him an appealing outfield option for a club in need of a bench piece once he’s off the DL.

Logan Morrison, 1B/DH, Rays: Morrison had one of the worst starts to a season I can recall any semi-regular player having, but he hit .271/.348/.462 with 10 homers in 234 PAs from May 16 through July 27, when he landed on the DL with a forearm strain. If he gets healthy, he’s at least a bench bat for a contending club, and the Rays have little reason to hold.

Also Considered

Yunel Escobar (Angels), Jorge De La Rosa, Boone Logan & Jake McGee (Rockies), Ian Kennedy (Royals), Shelby Miller (Diamondbacks), Matt Garza & Chris Carter (Brewers), Seth Smith (Mariners), David Freese, Matt Joyce & John Jaso (Pirates)