A player’s years of arbitration eligibility provide an opportunity for value, as teams are able to retain veteran assets without being forced to commit to future seasons — as is often necessary in the free agent market. But there can come a time where even talented and still-useful players have pushed their arb price tag too high to justify the tender of a contract.
With performance and/or injury issues marring the 2016 seasons of these eight established big leaguers, their already-lofty salary starting points could conceivably prompt their respective teams to send them onto the open market:
Lucas Duda, 1B, Mets (5+ service class, $6.725MM 2016 salary): Back issues appear to have ended Duda’s campaign after just 145 plate appearances, and they weren’t terribly productive ones. In that relatively small sample, his walk rate fell even as he put more balls on the ground and made less hard contact than in his productive prior campaigns. The result was a below-average .231/.297/.431 batting line. With health and platoon questions at play, the Mets could well be forced to look for an alternative approach at the position.
Early prediction: Non-tender
Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Yankees (5+, $5.6MM): Despite his struggles, Eovaldi seemed for much of the year to be a fairly sure thing to be tendered a contract. He continued to show signs of promise in spite of the inconsistencies — a career-best 9.3% swinging strike rate, for instance — and at worst would appear to be a late-inning pen candidate with a fastball that sits at 97 even when he’s starting. But a devastating elbow injury means that Eovaldi won’t pitch next year. The Yankees aren’t likely to pay up just to prepare the righty for free agency, so the only way he stays in New York is through some kind of multi-year arrangement.
Early prediction: Non-tender, barring multi-year agreement
Jake McGee, RP, Rockies (5+, $4.8MM): Brought in to be a power late-inning lefty, McGee has faltered — and not just in the thin air of Coors Field. He sits at a 5.26 ERA with 7.6 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9, with his swinging strike percentage (12.3% last year, 8.7% in 2016) plummeting along with his velocity (93.5 mph average four-seamer, down from a 2014 peak of 96.4). McGee has also spent time on the DL with a knee injury. Despite those difficulties, it will be hard for Colorado to part with McGee’s upside, especially having shipped out Corey Dickerson to acquire him last winter and given the going rate for quality pen arms on the open market. But with little in the way of encouraging signs, that just might be what happens.
Early prediction: Non-tender
Shelby Miller, SP, Diamondbacks (3+, $4.35MM): Miller’s struggles are well documented, and he has spent the second half of the year working through his issues at Triple-A. The results have been fairly promising thus far — a 3.52 ERA with 10.0 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 over 46 innings — and the lengthy stint has also impacted his future contract status. Because he now won’t top four years in total MLB service time by year end, Miller will remain under Arizona’s control for an additional season. That certainly impacts the cost-benefit equation, and makes him a likely tender candidate despite a fairly high salary and significant recent performance concerns.
Early prediction: Tender
Tommy Milone, SP, Twins (4+, $4.5MM): Things didn’t start off well for Milone, who was outrighted off of the 40-man roster one month into the 2016 season. He was rather masterful at Triple-A, running up a 1.66 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and a minuscule 0.7 BB/9 in seven starts, but things haven’t improved upon his return to the majors. Plus, Milone is now stuck on the shelf with a biceps problem. The odds seem good that he’ll be permitted to walk this fall.
Early prediction: Non-tender
Trevor Plouffe, 3B, Twins (5+, $7.25MM): It has been an underwhelming and injury-plagued season for the 30-year-old, who owns a .255/.290/.390 batting line with seven home runs in 284 plate appearances. With his power dwindling, Plouffe’s walk rate (4.2%) sits at about half of the level it was over 2014-15. Plus, defensive metrics have soured on the glove and Miguel Sano is arguably in need of everyday time at the hot corner. The Pirates just extended David Freese for two years and $11MM, which makes an $8MM+ payday to Plouffe seem a bit steep in light of his struggles. His time in Minnesota could end with a non-tender rather than a trade, particularly if a new GM decides it’s time to trim salary and focus on future assets.
Early prediction: Non-tender
Ben Revere, OF, Nationals (5+, $6.25MM): Brought in to handle the bulk of the load in center after a solid 2015 season, Revere has been a below-replacement-level player. He not only carries a miserable .215/.261/.302 slash over 335 plate appearances, but has gone just 11-for-16 in stolen base attempts despite typically rating as one of the game’s best bag swipers. While the Nats may well desire a left-handed hitter capable of playing center for 2017, the team may not be willing to pay quite as much as Revere will command in hopes that he can bounce back.
Early prediction: Non-tender
Trevor Rosenthal, RP, Cardinals (4+, $5.6MM): Coming into the year, Rosenthal was one of the game’s better closers. But while his velocity and strikeouts remain, he has permitted 7.3 walks per nine and posted a 5.13 ERA on the year. And now Rosenthal is on the DL with apparent shoulder and forearm issues. There’s at least some chatter that he could move to a starting role, and no suggestion as of yet that the organization is inclined to part with its two remaining years of control, but Rosenthal represents a rather costly roll of the dice.
Early prediction: Tender
