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Ryan O’Hearn Leveled Up … Again

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It’s been just shy of a year since MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald wrote, “The Orioles may have found the lefty bat they wanted” when writing about Ryan O’Hearn’s then-nascent breakout in Baltimore. Acquired from the Royals in exchange for cash on the heels of a DFA, O’Hearn was subsequently designated for assignment by the Orioles as well before being passed through waivers unclaimed and sent outright to Triple-A Norfolk.

It was the sort of ostensible unremarkable trade that is made hundreds of times over the course of a calendar year and quickly forgotten — until it wasn’t. As most are aware — certainly every Orioles fan — O’Hearn indeed emerged as the left-handed bat Baltimore had sought. At the time of Darragh’s piece last year, O’Hearn was slashing .308/.348/.542 with six home runs in 115 plate appearances. It wasn’t a big sample and he wasn’t walking much (5.2%), but O’Hearn’s batted-ball data supported much of that early flurry. He finished the year in strong fashion, seeing regular playing time against right-handed pitching and ending the year with a stout .289/.322/.480 slash — 18% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+.

For a player who’d hit .211/.282/.351 with a 27% strikeout rate over the four prior seasons in Kansas City (2019-22) before being designated for assignment, last season was a stunning breakout. The Orioles would’ve been thrilled just to have that one year, but O’Hearn came to Baltimore with four-plus years of playing time, making him controllable through the 2024 season. It was a no-brainer to tender him a contract and go through the arbitration process with him, and even if he reverted back to his 2019-22 form or regressed some at the plate, the entire gambit of acquiring him would’ve been well worth it based on 2023 alone.

O’Hearn, however, hasn’t reverted to his 2019-22 form. He hasn’t regressed closer to league-average. He hasn’t maintained the status quo and or even taken just a small step forward. Rather, he’s taken his game to an entirely new level, not just in terms of his raw run-production but also his approach at the plate.

In 189 plate appearances this season — all but 11 coming against right-handed pitching, it should be noted — O’Hearn is batting .287/.384/.489. He’s been 38% better than league-average, per wRC+. He’s already belted nine homers, six doubles and a triple.

He’s also struck out 19 times. In 189 plate appearances. Lest you think that was a typo, let’s write it out: nineteen times.

O’Hearn, who entered the 2024 season with a lifetime 25.6% strikeout rate in the big leagues, has at 30 years old simply become allergic to strikeouts. He’s also nearly doubled his walk rate from last year’s 4.1% to 7.9%. That feat isn’t as eye-popping on its own, given O’Hearn’s penchant for drawing free passes earlier in his career (11.5% from 2018-20), but it does serve to further underscore the evolution of his approach at the plate.

By measure of Statcast, O’Hearn chased 32% of pitches off the plate in 2023. This year, that number is down to 26.5%. He’s making contact on balls out of the strike zone at a career-best 64.4% clip, and his ability to connect on pitches within the strike zone has also ticked up. This year’s 90.6% mark is a career-best and sits more than five percentage points north of the 85.3% league average.

The uptick in volume of contact has come at the expense of some of his quality of contact, but that’s not to say O’Hearn is getting by with a series of well-placed bloops and weak grounders. His 90.4 mph average exit velocity and 41.9% hard-hit rate are both strong — they’re just down from last year’s respective marks of 91.9 mph and 51.5%. He’s in the 72nd and 75th percentile of MLB players in terms of exit velo and hard-hit rate, plus the 85th percentile of hitters in terms of whiff rate. Even with less life on his average batted ball, the increased frequency of contact leads Statcast to project O’Hearn in the 94th percentile or better in terms of his expected batting average, slugging percentage and wOBA.

It bears repeating that some of the reasoning for both his quality of contact and his gaudy expected stats is that O’Hearn is shielded nearly entirely from left-on-left matchups. His career performance in such situations (.168/.236/.286) rather emphatically shows that he’s benefited from Baltimore’s aggressive platooning. That somewhat specialized role doesn’t detract from his usefulness however, and when coupled with the nonexistent cost of acquisition, O’Hearn continues to cement himself as one of the current front office regime’s savviest acquisitions.

Speaking of savvy, any discussion of O’Hearn’s production should also touch on the slugger’s contract status. As noted before, O’Hearn came to Baltimore with two seasons of club control remaining. However, the two parties weren’t able to agree on a middle ground in arbitration prior to exchanging figures. O’Hearn filed for a $3.8MM salary to the Orioles’ $3.2MM figure. The two parties ultimately avoided a hearing at the eleventh hour, agreeing to a $3.5MM salary for the 2024 season — the midpoint between their submitted figures — as well as a club option for the 2025 campaign.

That would’ve been O’Hearn’s first free-agent season, but the O’s now have control over next year at a $7.5MM price point. O’Hearn would boost that option value by $500K upon appearing in 120 and 150 games. The latter of those two numbers won’t happen. O’Hearn has already been absent from 14 Orioles games. He’s on pace to appear in 127 games, however, making the first of those $500K escalators still not only attainable but likely.

The club option was notable at the time but hardly a lock to be exercised or even emerge as a borderline decision. But, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco quipped to me when chatting about O’Hearn’s newfound contact skills, few realized he was going to “turn into Luis Arraez with power.” That’s a bit of an overstatement of course — Arraez has fanned at a ridiculous 5.7% clip since Opening Day 2023 — but O’Hearn currently possesses the seventh-lowest strikeout rate of the 248 hitters with at least 150 plate appearances this season. Of the 30 players in that set who have a strikeout rate of 15% or lower, the only one hitting for more power than O’Hearn (by measure of ISO) is Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez. Securing what now looks to be a wildly affordable club option for a third season in order to avoid a hearing over a $600K difference in figures looks like a raucous bargain for the Orioles.

O’Hearn may be a limited player by virtue of his platoon splits and lackluster defensive ratings both in the outfield corners and at first base, but he’s developed one of the most unique skill sets in the game and made himself a vital member of one of MLB’s top offenses. On two different occasions in the 2022-23 offseason, any club could’ve acquired O’Hearn for nothing more than cash or a waiver claim.

The Orioles clearly didn’t expect this level of outcome — they wouldn’t have designated him for assignment if they did — but they deserve credit for seeing value where others didn’t. Much of the focus on Baltimore’s success is rightly placed on young core of players either drafted by the O’s (Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, etc.) or acquired via trade (Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish, Cade Povich), but hitting the jackpot on a small-scale pickup like O’Hearn is the sort of move that can be a separator, providing a high-end complementary player to help take an impressive core to the next level.

Salvador Perez’s Resurgent Showing

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The 39-27 Royals remain one of the most surprising stories of the season’s first couple months. While Kansas City certainly expected to be better than they were last year, they’ve played well enough to have a chance to top last season’s 56 wins by the All-Star Break.

Any turnaround that drastic is going to have multiple causes. Among the biggest (and perhaps least anticipated) developments for Kansas City is a massive first half from their franchise catcher. Salvador Perez’s career looked to be on the decline heading into his age-34 season. He has turned back the clock with his best start in at least three years.

Perez heads into this week’s matchup with the AL-leading Yankees carrying a .299/.372/.491 batting line across 261 plate appearances. He has connected on 10 homers and already picked up 15 doubles after hitting between 21 and 24 two-baggers in each of the last five full seasons. While he’s dipped into a 3-25 slump to this point in June, Perez turned in well above-average production in both April and May. Among catchers with 100+ plate appearances, he ranks fifth in on-base percentage and fourth in slugging. He’s fourth at the position in overall offensive output after accounting for the difficulty of hitting in K.C.’s spacious Kauffman Stadium.

The OBP is particularly impressive. Perez has always had big power, particularly relative to his counterparts behind the plate. He hasn’t excelled at consistently getting on base, though. Perez is an extremely aggressive hitter who has never been keen on waiting out free passes. He has only finished six of his 13 career seasons with an on-base percentage north of .300. He’s not only comfortably above that pace, he’s on track for what’ll be the best OBP of his career (and by a wide margin, if one excludes his 39-game rookie season in 2011 and the 37 games he played in 2020).

Perez hasn’t suddenly become a selective hitter a decade and a half into his MLB career. Among batters with 100+ PAs, only the recently designated Harold Ramírez has chased pitches outside the strike zone more frequently. Perez is eighth in overall swing rate. He’s as aggressive as ever. Yet he’s been more locked in this season than he has for the last couple years. Perez has made contact on 75.3% of his swings, a nearly four-point jump relative to last year and his highest rate since 2020. It’s not a coincidence that he’s striking out less often than he has in nearly 10 years.

It’s a strong rebound for a player who looked to be on the downswing. Perez had arguably the worst season of his career in 2023. While he played in 140 games and hit 23 homers, his .422 slugging percentage was his second lowest. He hit .255 while reaching base at a .292 clip that were both below his career norms. FanGraphs graded Perez as a sub-replacement player in 2023; Baseball Reference had him marginally better than replacement level but with a personal-low 0.5 wins.

That’s a reflection not only in his down work at the plate but a longstanding decline in his defensive metrics. Pitch framing metrics have never been keen on Perez’s receiving skills. He’d typically done an excellent job at controlling the running game, but that evaporated last season. Perez threw out only nine of 63 attempted basestealers, a 14.3% rate that was well south of the 20% league mark.

There are crucial aspects of catcher defense (game-calling, managing a pitching staff) that can’t be captured by public metrics. Perez has always been highly-regarded for those qualities. That said, his 2023 performance in the quantifiable parts of catching was not impressive. It looked in line with an overall declining career trajectory.

Perez has rebounded on that side of the ball as well. Statcast has rated him as an average pitch framer in 321 innings. He’s 6-19 in cutting down stolen base attempts. Perez was behind the plate for 39 wild pitches over 738 1/3 frames last season; that’s down to seven wild pitches in more than 40% of the innings this year. It’s tough to fully separate that from the team’s much improved pitching staff — the Royals brought in Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo and are getting a full season from Cole Ragans — but Perez’s defensive production has improved.

The Royals have slightly reduced Perez’s responsibilities. They’re mixing him in at first base a little more often than they did last season, a luxury afforded by having a quality #2 catcher in Freddy Fermin. Perhaps that’s also playing a part in Perez’s resurgent production.

In any case, the former World Series MVP’s huge first couple months should send him to the All-Star Game for the ninth time in his career. It’s a key reason the Royals are within four games of the Guardians for the AL Central lead and sit firmly in the second Wild Card position.

Perez’s return to form is also a welcome boost for a front office that made what was then a franchise-record investment three seasons ago. Kansas City signed him to a four-year, $82MM extension in Spring Training 2021 that preemptively covered the 2022-26 campaigns. Perez made $18MM in ’22, $20MM for the following two seasons, and is set for a $22MM salary next year. There’s also a $2MM buyout on a $13.5MM team option for 2026. That contract seemed well underwater as recently as a few months ago, but it’s a reasonable sum for this level of production.

The Royals don’t need to concern themselves with Perez’s long-term future, though it’s hard to envision him playing anywhere else at this point of his career. The immediate focus is on getting to the postseason for the first time since their 2015 championship. Perez is the only remaining player from that team and, even in his mid-30s, is playing a key role in trying to get Kansas City back to the playoffs nearly a decade later.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Will The Mets Trade Pete Alonso?

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The Mets head to London for a World Tour series against the Phillies this weekend. Even after sweeping the Nationals, New York owns a 27-35 record that has them above just the Rockies and Marlins in the National League. They’re remarkably only 3.5 games out of the Wild Card race, a testament to the NL’s mediocrity beyond its top four teams. There are six clubs between the Mets and the current final playoff team, the Padres.

If the Mets don’t make significant improvements in the next six-plus weeks, they’ll head into deadline season as a seller. Impending free agents are always the most apparent trade candidates. The Mets have no shortage of rentals they can market. Sean Manaea (who has a $13.5MM player option for next season), J.D. Martinez, Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, Adam Ottavino, Jose Quintana and Jake Diekman could all move. Yet there’s no more interesting Mets’ trade candidate than their first baseman.

Pete Alonso is a few months from his first trip to the open market. He reportedly declined a $158MM extension offer last summer. President of baseball operations David Stearns made clear throughout the offseason that while the Mets had no interest in trading Alonso over the winter, they didn’t anticipate reopening extension negotiations before he hit free agency.

That should spur plenty of trade speculation as the deadline approaches. That’s evidently already happening in front offices outside of Queens. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote this week that multiple rival general managers expect the Mets to trade Alonso before the deadline. That seems more like informed speculation than a suggestion that his name has come up in trade talks to this point.

Will talks gain legitimate traction in the coming weeks? There’s a straightforward argument for the Mets to move Alonso. They evidently don’t plan on keeping him from testing the free agent market. Alonso will begin his next contract in his age-30 season. When Stearns was running baseball operations in Milwaukee, the Brewers preferred not to invest heavily in defensively-limited sluggers. He obviously has far more resources at his disposal now, but it’s fair to wonder whether Alonso is the type of player around whom Stearns wants to build.

That’s particularly true with a slight downturn in Alonso’s batted ball metrics. He’s still capable of hitting the ball as hard anyone, but he has done so less frequently over the past couple seasons. The Polar Bear’s rate of hard contact (a batted ball with an exit velocity north of 95 MPH) peaked at 47.3% back in 2021. It dropped by a few points in each of the next two seasons. This year’s 40.1% hard contact rate is a match for last season’s. It places Alonso 129th out of 263 qualified hitters.

The dip in hard contact rate hasn’t made Alonso a bad hitter, of course. He’s hitting .238/.315/.477 with 14 homers across 267 plate appearances. After accounting for the pitcher-friendly nature of Citi Field and a depressed league run environment, that’s 27 percentage points better than average. Alonso remains a middle-of-the-order bat, but it’s a slightly concerning trend for a player whose game is built on power.

If the front office has concerns about Alonso’s long-term projection, a trade would be the most sensible decision. The Mets would get very little in return if they let him walk in free agency. They’d make him a qualifying offer, but they’d only receive a pick after the fourth round if he signs elsewhere. As a luxury tax payor, they’re entitled to the lowest compensation for losing a qualified free agent. The trade offers they receive this summer would certainly be better than that, even if Alonso’s limited control window and $20.5MM arbitration salary make it unlikely they’d get any top-tier prospects in return.

For the Mets to keep Alonso, they’d need to believe there’s a realistic path to the postseason in 2024 and/or feel good about their chances of retaining him in free agency. Making the playoffs this year isn’t impossible, but they’ve put themselves in a hole with their poor start. Holding Alonso would probably be more about the latter scenario — a sign they’re confident that he’ll stay in New York after seeing what other teams will offer.

Owner Steve Cohen is capable of outbidding anyone. He’s presumably keen on retaining Alonso, who has proven himself in New York and has been a fan favorite since his electrifying rookie season. Yet the Mets have been relatively restrained in the last two offseasons after their frenzied effort to spend their way into contention in 2021 didn’t quite pan out. (The Mets did win 101 games in 2022, but they followed up a first-round playoff exit with last year’s 75 wins.) The Mets seem to be gearing up for a bidding war with the Yankees and others on Juan Soto, which could take some of the priority away from Alonso.

It’s at least worth considering the possibility that the Mets trade Alonso before trying to bring him back next winter. That’s not unheard of but doesn’t happen often, particularly with players at the top of the market. A deadline trade typically reflects an understanding that the team and player aren’t going to line up on contract figures.

How will the Mets handle the situation? Is Alonso going to be on the move this summer?

 

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

The Surprising Rock Of The Marlins’ Rotation

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At last year’s trade deadline, the Marlins and Padres made a trade that largely flew under the radar at the time but is now proving to be fairly significant. The Fish sent Garrett Cooper and minor league pitcher Sean Reynolds to the Friars for left-hander Ryan Weathers.

Trades of star players like Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer stole the headlines at the time, while other notable players like Paul Sewald, Jeimer Candelario and Mark Canha also changed teams. Even within Miami, the acquisitions of Jake Burger and Josh Bell garnered far more attention than the Weathers deal, and that was fairly understandable back then. Burger and Bell immediately joined the big league club and helped them reach the playoffs, their first full-season postseason appearance in 20 years.

Cooper has been a decent hitter at times but has also been frequently hurt and was an impending free agent at the time. Reynolds was a 25-year-old who had only recently converted to pitching after spending his earlier professional seasons as a first baseman and outfielder.

Weathers had been a big name a few years prior. The former No. 7 overall pick was ranked by Baseball America as the No. 84 prospect in the league going into 2021, but Weathers hadn’t been impressing prior to the deal. He had thrown 143 big league innings for the Padres before becoming a Marlin, allowing 5.73 earned runs per nine frames.

Even in the minors, Weathers wasn’t exactly mowing opponents down. He had a 6.73 ERA in 123 innings for Triple-A El Paso in 2022. That club plays in the notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but Weathers had subpar strikeout and walk rates of 15.6% and 10.1%. With El Paso in 2023, he lowered his ERA to 4.20 and struck out 29.2% of batters faced but was still giving out walks at an ugly 13.5% rate. The Padres called him up for 44 2/3 innings in the majors last year, but he had a 6.25 ERA in that time, striking out just 14.8% of opponents. The fact that the Padres were willing to let him go for a pretty limited package suggests that they considered his stock way down relative to when he was a top-10 pick and top-100 prospect.

Weathers was largely an afterthought coming into this year. Even with Sandy Alcántara undergoing Tommy John surgery last year, Miami’s rotation mix projected to include Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett, Max Meyer and Trevor Rogers. Reliever A.J. Puk was going to be stretched out, giving the club another potential starter. Since Weathers still has an option year left, it seemed like he would have to start 2024 in the minors and earn his way into a big league job.

That’s not the way things have played out thus far. Garrett, Cabrera and Pérez all started the season on the injured list due to injuries, with Pérez ultimately requiring Tommy John surgery. Luzardo and Puk eventually hit the IL during the season, with the latter moved back to a relief role when the starting experiment failed. Meyer made three good starts but was optioned to the minors so the club could monitor his workload as he ramps back up from 2022 Tommy John surgery.

Amid all of that, Weathers has been the club’s best and most consistent starter this year. He has taken the ball 12 times and logged 68 2/3 innings, while no one else has topped 57. On top of the quantity, Weathers has also provided quality with a 3.41 ERA. His 22.1% strikeout rate is close to average, but his 6.9% walk rate is strong and his 51.5% ground ball rate is very good.

Manager Skip Schumaker recently appeared on MLB Network Radio and discussed the breakout from Weathers (X link, with audio). The skipper talked about how he had seen Weathers up close earlier in his career, as Schumaker was employed by the Padres through the 2021 season. Schumaker spoke about how Weathers managed to rise to the majors quickly due to his fastball but that hitters started to adjust. That prompted Weathers to spend the most recent offseason working to improve the other pitches in his arsenal, which seems to be paying off so far this year.

“He bought a TrackMan and different things and created kind of his own pitching lab back home,” Schumaker said, “and figured out how to spin the ball better and really manipulate the changeup into a way where he can throw it for strikes and to throw it strike-to-ball when he needed as well to get swing-and-miss.”

Weathers threw his four-seam fastball more than 50% of the time in each of his first three big league seasons, according to Statcast, but that number is down 40.2% in 2024. He’s going to the changeup 26.1% of the time but also throwing a sweeper at a 20.4% rate, a sinker at a 12.2% clip and a smattering of sliders as well. Opponents are hitting .174 against the changeup with a .349 slugging percentage, while those numbers are just .132 and .211 against the sweeper. The changeup has a 40.1% whiff rate and 36.8% hard hit rate, with the sweeper getting whiffs on 55.2% of swings and hit hard (95 mph or greater) just 11.8% of the time hitters make contact.

This is still a small sample size of just 12 starts, but Weathers was previously a touted prospect and has made a concerted effort to evolve. Since he charged so quickly to the majors, his struggles occurred at an age when many pitchers are still in college or climbing the minor league ladder. He’s still only 24 years old despite this technically being his fourth season in the majors.

Perhaps the Marlins have found a solid piece for their rotation from that small trade last year, which would be significant for them. Weathers came into this season with one year and 66 days of major league service time. That means he won’t qualify for arbitration until after 2025 and can be controlled through 2028.

Though they once seemed to be overloaded with starting pitching options, the group has been thinned out recently. They traded Pablo López and Jake Eder in recent years. Alcantara and Pere had Tommy John surgery this year. Well-regarded prospect Dax Fulton had a UCL repair (not a full Tommy John surgery) last summer and has yet to pitch this season. Sixto Sanchez has been consistently hobbled by shoulder injuries. And, Miami’s poor performance this year could lead to further selling, with Luzardo and Rogers speculative possibilities.

Even if those arms do end up being traded — Luzardo, in particular, seems likely — it’s possible to imagine the Marlins having a strong rotation consisting of Weathers, Alcántara, Pérez, Meyer, Cabrera and Garrett by late 2025, with all of those names controllable through at least 2027. Trades of Luzardo and others on the roster could bring in further rotation candidates as well. Plans rarely go that smoothly, as injuries and changes in performance will undoubtedly occur, but the continued evolution of Weathers is a huge bright spot during a season that’s otherwise been bleak in Miami.

Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Boras Four, Cubs, Blue Jays, Gambling

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I'm back for this week's mailbag!  We've got questions on the Boras Four, the Cubs' plan at catcher, available righty relievers, Juan Soto's defense, the Blue Jays' offense, the recent gambling suspensions, my one-third award picks, and much more.

Doug asks:

Do you think that front offices will feel even more compelled to depress free agent salaries after all of the prolonged drama about "The Boras Four" and none of those players panning out to be very good? Will any of Chapman, Bellinger, Snell, or Montgomery opt out of their contract?

Owners and players will be diametrically opposed on player salaries until the end of time, or at least until the end of Major League Baseball.  But to your point, it stands to reason that if the early performance of the late-signing Boras pitchers holds up, more front offices will be wary of giving big AAVs to hurlers signing well into spring training, even on short-term deals.

Blake Snell has been terrible, and since debuting April 8th has separate IL stints for adductor and groin strains.  Snell recently told reporters, "The one thing I would say is that big-league spring training, you need it. You have to go to spring training. I hope teams see that. I don’t know what [Jordan] Montgomery is doing, but I bet it’s tough for him."

Montgomery, who expressed a similar sentiment, sits at a 5.48 ERA after eight starts, with the worst strikeout rate of his career.

Some pitchers have succeeded after signing late, notably Ervin Santana signing on 3-12-14 and putting up a 3.2 WAR season for the Braves.  But both Snell and Montgomery signed later than Santana did, and most examples show pitchers struggling without a normal spring training.

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2024-25 Player Option/Opt-Out Preview: June Edition

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We’re two months into the 2024 season, meaning more than a third of the schedule has already elapsed. While there are still plenty of games remaining, there are enough in the books to affect the market of the upcoming free agent class.

That’s particularly true for players who can opt out of their current contracts. Player ages are for the 2025 season.

  • Cody Bellinger (29): Can opt out of final two years and $52.5MM on three-year guarantee

Bellinger didn’t find the $200MM+ offer he was seeking last winter. As with a few other high-profile Boras Corporation clients (more on them in a minute), he pivoted to a short-term deal that allowed him to return to free agency next winter. Bellinger is arguably out to the best start of the bunch and seems on track to head back to the open market. He can earn a salary of $27.5MM in 2025 or take a $2.5MM buyout. If he decides to stay with the Cubs, he’ll then get to choose between a $25MM salary for 2026 or a $5MM buyout.

The lefty-hitting center fielder has a .265/.325/.459 line with eight homers over 203 plate appearances. His 15.8% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk percentage are on par with last year’s levels. Bellinger is again succeeding despite a below-average 33.8% hard contact rate. He’s not performing at quite the same pace he did in 2023, but the overall profile remains the same: good contact skills with the ability to play center field and mediocre batted ball metrics.

It could set up another winter where Bellinger’s exit velocities are the subject of plenty of debate. Perhaps his camp will need to lower their asking price in the early stages of his free agency, but the initial decision to opt out would be a straightforward one if he continues at this pace. He’d still be fairly young for a free agent at 29. Now two seasons removed from his dismal 2021-22 production, he also wouldn’t be saddled with a qualifying offer. Bellinger received the QO last winter, so he cannot receive another in his career.

  • Matt Chapman (32): Can opt out of final two years and $36MM on three-year guarantee

Chapman also settled for a short-term deal after a tough finish to the 2023 season. The defensive stalwart inked a three-year, $54MM contract with the Giants early in Spring Training. He has a $17MM player option for next season and an $18MM player option for the ’26 campaign if he doesn’t take the first opt-out. There’s a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for 2027 as well.

Over 60 games in San Francisco, he’s hitting .238/.307/.411 with eight home runs. That’s slightly better than average production in this season’s diminished run environment. By measure of wRC+, Chapman has been nine percentage points better than average at the plate — right in line with his usual level. He’s putting the ball in play more than he ever had before, but he’s sacrificing a few walks and some of his typically huge exit velocities to do so. While this would probably be enough for Chapman to head back to free agency in search of a three- or four-year deal, it’s not likely to result in the nine-figure contract that seemingly wasn’t on the table last offseason.

  • Gerrit Cole (34): Can opt out of final four years and $144MM on nine-year guarantee; team can override by exercising a $36MM option for 2029 if Cole declines his end

As recently as a few months ago, this decision looked preordained. Cole, coming off a Cy Young win and probably the best pitcher in baseball, would trigger the opt-out — only for the Yankees to override it by exercising a $36MM option for 2029. Boras suggested as much in a chat with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale in December.

His status has at least been somewhat complicated by elbow inflammation that arose during Spring Training. Cole has spent the entire season on the 60-day injured list; he’ll begin a minor league rehab stint tonight. If he looks like his typical self in the second half, this’ll probably be an easy call for Cole and the Yankees alike. If he struggles or, more worryingly, battles any other elbow concerns, he’d need to more seriously consider hanging onto the final four years and $144MM on his record free agent deal.

  • Nathan Eovaldi (35): Conditional $20MM option if Eovaldi reaches 156 innings pitched or based on Cy Young/All-Star results

Eovaldi’s $34MM deal with the Rangers contained a conditional option for 2025 that went into effect if he threw at least 300 innings in the first two seasons. He logged 144 frames a year ago, meaning he needed 156 this season. Eovaldi lost three weeks to a groin strain. He has made nine starts and thrown 50 innings so far, leaving him 106 shy of the vesting threshold. With another 18-20 turns through the rotation, it’s still doable, but any other injuries would essentially rule it out.

He could also kick in the option with a top-five finish in Cy Young balloting or a top seven Cy Young finish and an All-Star selection. While he’s pitching very well, the Cy Young provision only comes into play if he falls short of 156 innings. Placing that high without reaching 156 frames is a tall task.

Even if he were to vest the option, Eovaldi may well prefer to head back to free agency in search of a multi-year deal. While he’ll be 35, he still looks the part of an upper mid-rotation starter. Eovaldi has followed up a 3.63 ERA during his first season in Arlington with a 2.70 mark to this point. His fastball is sitting around 96 MPH and he has punched out more than 26% of opposing hitters with a ground-ball rate north of 50%. There’ll always be lingering durability questions given his age and two previous Tommy John surgeries, yet on talent, Eovaldi is one of the better pitchers who could be available.

  • Wilmer Flores (33): $3.5MM player option; team can override by exercising an $8.5MM option if Flores declines his end

In September 2022, the Giants signed Flores to a $16.5MM extension. He has a $3.5MM option for next season; if he declines, the Giants could keep him around by picking up an $8.5MM salary. Flores had arguably the best year of his career in 2023, drilling a personal-high 23 homers with a .284/.355/.509 slash line. The pendulum has swung in the opposite direction this season. He has only one longball with a .207/.276/.283 mark in 163 trips to the plate. Flores’ strikeout and walk profile haven’t changed, but his contact quality has plummeted.

A full season of replacement level production would make it likely that Flores takes the $3.5MM salary. There’s still time for him to find his power stroke, though.

Giolito is likely to take a $19MM salary from the Red Sox next year. The typically durable right-hander suffered a UCL injury during his second Spring Training appearance with Boston. He underwent an internal brace procedure and will miss the entire season. While he could be ready for the start of next season, he’d be hard-pressed to match a $19MM salary coming off the elbow procedure.

Opting in would trigger a conditional team/mutual option for the 2026 season, though. If Giolito doesn’t top 140 innings next year, the Sox would have a $14MM option (with a $1.5MM buyout) for ’26. Giolito would convert that to a $19MM mutual option by reaching the 140-inning plateau.

  • Mitch Haniger (34): Can opt out of final year and $15.5MM on three-year guarantee

The Giants signed Haniger to a three-year, $43.5MM free agent deal two winters back. That allowed him to opt out of the final season’s $15.5MM salary. Haniger’s time in the Bay Area was a disappointment. A broken arm limited him to 61 games and he didn’t hit well when healthy. San Francisco dealt him back to the Mariners last offseason in a change-of-scenery swap involving Robbie Ray and Anthony DeSclafani.

Haniger is the only member of that trio who has played in 2024. (Ray is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, while DeSclafani was flipped to the Twins and ultimately required elbow surgery himself.) The veteran outfielder hasn’t hit in his return to the Pacific Northwest. He carries a .221/.282/.349 line with six homers and a strikeout rate approaching 28% in 213 plate appearances. He’s trending towards sticking around.

  • Rhys Hoskins (32): Can opt out of final year and $18MM on two-year guarantee

Hoskins inked a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers after losing all of 2023 to an ACL tear. He landed in a favorable hitting environment in Milwaukee with a chance to prove he was back to his typical offensive form. Hoskins has done just that over the season’s first two months, connecting on 10 homers with a .243/.345/.486 line through 168 trips. He’s well on his way to opting out and would be one of the top offensive players in next year’s free agent class. The Brewers could make him a qualifying offer.

The Dodgers brought back the future Hall of Famer, who is rehabbing from an offseason shoulder procedure. His deal contains a 2025 player option with a $5MM base value and significant escalators. It’d jump to $7MM if he makes six starts this season, $3MM apiece for each of his seventh through ninth start, and another $4MM if he starts 10 games. Performance bonuses could push his 2025 salary as high as $25MM.

It’s likely Kershaw will exercise the option regardless of where the specific value winds up. He has been throwing but has yet to begin a rehab stint. A return relatively early in the season’s second half — which would give him a chance to get to 10 starts — is still in play.

Manaea opted out of a $12.5MM salary last winter and landed a two-year, $28MM pact from the Mets. He’s been a rare bright spot in a dismal season in Queens. Over 11 starts, the southpaw has tossed 57 innings of 3.63 ERA ball. He has a solid 23.2% strikeout rate behind an 11.2% swinging strike percentage. Manaea’s 9.9% walk rate is a personal high, but he’s looked the part of a decent mid-rotation starter.

If he continues at this pace, he’d likely forego next year’s $13.5MM salary and hit the market for a third straight winter. Manaea will be heading into his age-33 campaign and could look for a two- or three-year pact (potentially the final multi-year deal of his career). Even if wouldn’t dramatically improve on his annual salary, pitchers like Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have gotten multi-year deals in their mid-30s for mid-rotation work.

Cincinnati guaranteed Martinez $26MM over two seasons — $14MM this year with a $12MM option for 2025. That investment made it appear the Reds would give him an extended look in the rotation. They’ve instead kept him in the swing role which he played for most of his time with the Padres. Martinez has started five of 13 games, posting a 4.20 ERA across 49 1/3 innings. He has a microscopic 0.76 ERA from the bullpen but has been rocked for a 7.36 mark out of the rotation.

On the surface, Martinez’s production doesn’t seem all that eye-catching. It’s not too dissimilar to Manaea’s work in a swing role with the Giants in 2023, though. Manaea turned in a 4.44 ERA while starting 10 of 37 games with San Francisco. He declined a $12.5MM player option and found a multi-year deal with a team willing to give him a rotation spot. Martinez (like Manaea, a Boras Corp. client) has opted out of multi-year commitments from San Diego in each of the last two offseasons. He’d probably do the same next winter if his performance doesn’t dramatically turn.

Montgomery agreed to terms with the Diamondbacks just days before the start of the regular season. He landed a $25MM salary for this year and a conditional player option for 2025. The condition — making 10 MLB starts — would only not come into play if the southpaw suffered a significant injury. Montgomery is already two starts away from vesting the option. Its value would escalate to $25MM if he gets to 23 starts.

The 31-year-old certainly anticipated declining that option and trying his hand again in free agency. He’s been hit hard through his first eight starts in the desert, though. Montgomery has been tagged for a 5.48 earned run average across 44 1/3 innings. While he’s still showing good control, his strikeout rate has plummeted seven points to a poor 14.4% rate. His four-seam and sinker are each averaging less than 92 MPH after sitting around 93.5 MPH last season. Perhaps Montgomery is still shaking off rust related to his delayed start to the year, yet his early performance could make the option decision tougher than he expected.

The Reds signed Pagán to a two-year, $16MM contract with the ability to collect a $250K buyout in lieu of an $8MM salary next season. It was an odd fit considering Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home park and Pagán’s longstanding trouble with the longball. His first 21 appearances as a Red have been fine. He owns a 4.19 ERA across 19 1/3 innings. The righty has a customarily strong 30.5% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk percentage. He has surrendered four homers.

Pagán, who is currently on the 15-day injured list with triceps tightness, has performed about as the Reds probably anticipated. This one can still go either way, but an $8MM salary for his age-34 season feels about right for his market value.

  • Wandy Peralta (33): Can opt out of final three years and $12.65MM on four-year guarantee

The Padres surprisingly signed Peralta to a four-year deal as a means of reducing the contract’s luxury tax hit. The veteran southpaw has been effective, turning in a 2.66 ERA across 23 2/3 innings. Peralta doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s an excellent ground-ball specialist (55.6% this season, 53.1% for his career). Even though he’s pitching well, it’d be somewhat surprising to see him walk away from another three years and almost $13MM covering his age 33-35 seasons.

  • Robbie Ray (33): Can opt out of final two years and $50MM on five-year guarantee

Ray’s five-year, $115MM contract with the Mariners allowed him to bypass the final two seasons valued at $25MM annually. Ray had a solid, if not overwhelming, first season in Seattle. His elbow gave out after one start in year two. Ray underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023. The Mariners offloaded the final three years of his contract in the Haniger trade with the Giants.

The former AL Cy Young winner is targeting a return around the All-Star Break. He has been throwing from a mound and could head on a rehab stint in the coming days. Odds are against an opt-out right now, but a dominant second half could change the calculus.

The Royals signed Renfroe to a surprisingly strong two-year, $13MM deal. The righty-hitting outfielder was coming off a middling .233/.297/.416 showing between the Angels and Reds a year ago. He has had a very rough start to his Kansas City tenure, hitting .178/.256/.309 with only four homers in 168 plate appearances. It’d take a major reversal in the season’s final few months for him to forego a $7.5MM salary.

The Giants jumped in late on Chapman and even later to grab the defending NL Cy Young winner. Snell signed a two-year, $62MM guarantee two weeks before Opening Day. The hope for everyone involved was that he’d collect the first $32MM and pitch well enough to pass on next season’s $30MM option.

Snell’s first two months in the Bay Area couldn’t have gone much worse. He has battled groin issues throughout the season. Snell lost around a month with an adductor (groin) strain between April and May. He went back on the 15-day IL last night. He has taken the ball six times and been rocked for a 9.51 ERA over 23 2/3 innings. Needless to say, he’ll need a much better final four months to go back to free agency.

The Renfroe deal wasn’t the only surprising two-year pact with an opt-out that the Royals signed last winter. They signed Stratton, a generally solid middle reliever, to an $8MM deal containing a $4.5MM option for next season. The right-hander was coming off a 3.92 ERA performance across 82 2/3 innings out of the St. Louis and Texas bullpens.

He hasn’t been as effective for the Royals, allowing 5.76 earned runs per nine through 25 frames. Stratton’s strikeout rate is down a few points to 21.7%, but the much bigger issue is an uncharacteristic inability to find the zone. He has walked almost 16% of batters faced, more than doubling last season’s rate.

  • Justin Verlander (42): Conditional $35MM option if Verlander reaches 140 innings pitched

Verlander would unlock a $35MM player option if he throws 140 innings this season. While he was delayed to start the year by shoulder discomfort, he has logged 52 innings in nine starts since his return. Barring another injury, he’ll throw more than 88 innings over the season’s final four months.

At 41, Verlander is still pitching well — a 3.63 ERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate — but he’s not operating at Cy Young form. If he continues at this pace all season, matching a $35MM salary on the open market is unlikely. Verlander seems comfortable in Houston and would probably prefer to stick with the Astros, though that may depend on whether the team plays better before the deadline. Verlander approved a trade from the Mets back to Houston last summer when it became clear that New York wasn’t going to be a legitimate World Series contender during his contract. At 27-34, the Astros need to turn things around quickly to put themselves in position for an eighth straight trip to the ALCS.

Wacha landed in Kansas City on a two-year commitment with matching $16MM salaries and the opportunity to head back to free agency after year one. The veteran righty is pitching well enough to make that a consideration. He owns a 4.24 ERA across 12 starts and 68 innings. That’s a run higher than his ERA of the past two seasons, but the general profile remains the same.

He throws strikes with slightly below-average whiff rates. He has thrown between 120-140 innings in each of the last three seasons and looks on his way to matching or surpassing that in 2024. Opting out in search of another two-year deal in the $30MM range is plausible.

The One-Year Anniversary Of Yusei Kikuchi’s (New) Curveball

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Few pitchers have had an up-and-down career in the majors like Yusei Kikuchi. The former Seibu Lions star made the jump from Nippon Professional Baseball to Major League Baseball in the 2018-19 offseason when he signed a four-year, $56MM contract with the Mariners. That deal contained a series of complicated options that allowed the Mariners to pick up an additional three years of control over Kikuchi — with that decision coming after year three of the contract — but also allowed the left-hander the opportunity to opt out if that three-year option was declined.

For much of Kikuchi’s time in Seattle, the four-year guarantee looked regrettable. Kikuchi made 32 starts in his rookie season but posted an ERA north of 5.00 with a lackluster 16.1% strikeout rate and velocity that didn’t line up with what he’d shown previously in Japan. The 2022 season brought some signs of encouragement, as the southpaw’s average fastball jumped by a hefty 2.5 mph (from 92.6 mph to 95.1 mph). Kikuchi saw a 50% increase in his strikeout rate, climbing from that ugly 16.1% mark to an above-average 24.2%. But his walk rate also jumped to nearly 11%, and he ultimately posted a second straight ERA north of 5.00.

Starting in early 2021, Kikuchi’s results took a turn for the better. He maintained the prior season’s velocity spike and strikeout gains but did so while improving his command. For a stretch of 11 starts in the middle of the 2021 season’s first half, Kikuchi was one of the most effective pitchers in baseball: 69 2/3 innings, 2.33 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate, 58% ground-ball rate. Kikuchi was a deserving first-time All-Star and was pitching so well at the season’s midway point that I wrote about how he’d suddenly begun to make the question of whether to exercise a quartet of $16.5MM options one worth pondering. The extra four years and $66MM would’ve brought Seattle’s total commitment to the left-hander to seven years and $109MM in total.

Kikuchi wound up making it an easy call for the Mariners — though not in the way he and the team hoped. From July 5 through season’s end in 2021, the pendulum swung in the completely opposite direction for him. He was rocked for a 6.22 ERA as his walk rate spiked back over 10% and he became problematically homer-prone. Hackneyed as the line may be, 2021 was a true tale of two seasons for Kikuchi. A dominant, All-Star-caliber first half followed by a catastrophic second half in which he had the seventh-worst ERA of any pitcher with at least 60 innings pitched.

The Mariners unsurprisingly opted not to pick up their four-year, $66MM option on Kikuchi. While it originally looked as though Kikuchi would exercise his $13MM player option, he surprised some onlookers by instead declining that guaranteed sum and heading back to the market. There were plenty of critics at the time of his decision, but his eventual three-year, $36MM deal with the Blue Jays proved that he’d come out ahead on the gambit.

Kikuchi’s time in Toronto has been similar to his run with the Mariners. A disappointing first campaign saw him lose his rotation spot at one point and finish out the year with a 5.19 ERA in 100 2/3 innings. Heading into 2023, he wasn’t even guaranteed a spot in the rotation. And through his first 11 starts of the season, Kikuchi was again performing his typical highwire act. His 4.47 ERA was passable, but the lefty was averaging a staggering 2.4 homers per nine frames and showing a diminished 21.5% strikeout rate.

On June 4, something interesting happened. Kikuchi threw a curveball. It’s an unremarkable statement in and of itself, but it was the first time Kikuchi had thrown a hook since his rookie season in Seattle. Scouting reports on Kikuchi when he was headed stateside for the first time praised his curve as one of his top pitches, in fact. But major league hitters absolutely teed off against the pitch in 2019, posting an outrageous .353/.371/.632 slash against the suddenly ineffective curveball.

Kikuchi scrapped the pitch entirely for the 2020-22 seasons and hadn’t thrown it through 11 starts in ’23. For the remainder of the season, just under 13% of Kikuchi’s pitches were curveballs, per Sports Info Solutions. This, however, wasn’t the same curveball he showed in that rookie season. Kikuchi’s 2019 hook averaged just over 75 mph, featuring a huge 63.7 inches of vertical break and 6.9 inches of horizontal break, per Statcast.

The new breaker is a harder, sharper curveball that sits 83 mph with 43.5 inches of vertical break and 4.4 inches of horizontal break. The esteemed Rob Friedman — aka Pitching Ninja — has highlighted the offering on several occasions since last June. Compare that to this video of Kikuchi’s old curveball, and you can see it’s an entirely different pitch. The new curve wasn’t a dominant pitch last year — opponents hit .277/.306/.447 in plate appearances ending with a curveball — but the change in repertoire seemingly helped keep hitters off balance and make his other pitches more effective.

The 2024 season has been another story. Kikuchi has fully embraced the new curveball by throwing it at a 28% clip, and batters have been almost wholly unable to do damage against the pitch. Opponents are hitting .258/.290/.318 in 69 plate appearances that have ended with a curve, and their only four extra-base hits have been doubles. Nearly 53% of batted curveballs against Kikuchi have been grounders. This has helped him tamp down his longstanding struggles against right-handed opponents, and Statcast lauds the curveball as a plus pitch, giving opponents an “expected” .221 batting average, .293 slugging percentage and .240 wOBA against the pitch.

The uptick in curveballs has led Kikuchi to use his slider and changeup at some of the lowest rates of his career. All three of his non-fastball pitches have flummoxed opponents this season. His heater is averaging a career-high 95.6 mph despite Kikuchi pitching in his age-33 season, but it remains hittable and has been his weakest pitches in terms of opponent results. However, the incorporation of an effective curveball also makes it harder for opponents to sit on the heater.

Through 11 starts this season, Kikuchi has posted a 3.25 ERA. He’s totaled 61 innings, fanned 24.1% of opponents against an outstanding 5.1% walk rate and kept the ball on the ground at a solid 44.1% clip. Kikuchi is still giving up a fair bit of hard contact (mostly on that heater) and will surely see his tiny 7.7% homer-to-flyball ratio trend tick upward. League average tends to be in the 12-13% range, and Kikuchi’s career mark is 17.4%. Even with a couple extra homers on his 2024 ledger, however, Kikuchi would look like a clearly above-average starter.

And it’s not just the 2024 season where he’s been effective with this new offering. It’s now been almost one year to the day since Kikuchi broke out the new curveball, and his numbers over the past calendar year could catch some onlookers by surprise. His 3.45 ERA ranks 12th among 78 qualified starting pitchers, and he’s 28th in total innings (172 1/3). By measure of FanGraphs’ version of WAR, which is calculated off his 3.09 FIP rather than his raw run-prevention numbers, Kikuchi has been baseball’s fifth-most valuable pitcher. RA9-WAR, which is simply based on the number of runs he’s allowed (rather than FIP) has Kikuchi tied for 18th.

Regardless of one’s preferred method of pitcher evaluation, Kikuchi has been one MLB’s 10 to 20 best starters over the past calendar year — a remarkable turnaround for someone who entered the 2023 campaign fighting for a rotation spot with the team whose rotation he’s now anchoring.

Kikuchi’s gains are all the more interesting in light of the Blue Jays’ disappointing 2024 campaign. Toronto currently sits at 26729 on the season, placing them last place in the hyper-competitive AL East. They’ve rattled off four straight wins but are still 11.5 games out of first place in the division and 4.5 games out of a Wild Card spot (with three teams standing between Toronto and the third spot, currently held by the Twins). The Blue Jays’ playoff odds are hardly shot, but they’ve undeniably diminished relative to their preseason projections. There’s already speculation about the potential of a sell-off, with names like Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. the subject of particular wishcasting.

But if the Jays do end up selling, it’s Kikuchi — not Bichette, Guerrero, Chris Bassitt, etc. — who stands as Toronto’s likeliest trade commodity. He’s playing out the final season of that three-year, $36MM deal and earning what now looks like a highly reasonable $12MM salary. The majority of contending clubs should be able to absorb some or all of the remaining salary on his deal, although the Jays could always offer to pay it down in order to sweeten a return. Kikuchi has pitched himself into qualifying offer candidacy, so the Jays would likely need some real prospect value to come their way in order to make the trade, but so long as he continues pitching close to his pace over the past 365 days, that’d also be a reasonable ask.

Further, Kikuchi’s status as an impending free agent makes his past calendar year all the more intriguing. If he can make another 20 or so starts at this pace, he’ll hit the market on the back of an impressive run and be able to stake his claim as one of the better mid-tier starters on the market. He’s not going to elevate himself into the Corbin Burnes or Max Fried tiers of the upcoming free-agent market, but another lucrative three-year deal would be in play. Both Bassitt and Sonny Gray scored three-year pacts at annual rates higher than $20MM covering the same age-34 to age-36 seasons Kikuchi will be peddling.

Kikuchi has a ways to go before he’s squarely in that conversation, his turnaround over the past year has him heading in that direction. It’s worth pointing out that he lasted only three innings during his last start, showing reduced velocity and failing to record a strikeout. That could be a red flag, but it could also just be a blip on the radar. The Jays haven’t pointed to any kind of medical issue for Kikuchi. We don’t know if there’s an injury, illness, pitch tipping or simple fatigue at hand, or whether it was just off day for the lefty.

What we do know is that over the past year, very few pitchers have been more successful and more valuable than Kikuchi. Adding a new pitch isn’t always a ticket to greener pastures, but it certainly has been for Kikuchi, who’s shaping up to be a potential impact deadline arm and a much more appealing free agent than anyone could’ve reasonably expected a year ago.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Seven Veterans With Opt-Out Opportunities This Weekend

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As part of the 2022 collective bargaining agreement, MLB and the Players Association agreed to a few automatic opt-out dates for some veteran players on minor league contracts. Article XX(B) free agents — generally, players with over six years of MLB service who finished the preceding season on a big league roster — who sign minor league contracts more than ten days before Opening Day receive three uniform chances to retest free agency if they’re not promoted.

The first comes five days before the start of the season. For players who pass on that initial opt-out, they have additional windows to explore the open market on both May 1 and June 1 if they’ve yet to secure a spot on the 40-man roster. There were 31 players who initially had that option in Spring Training.

Eleven of them — Carlos Carrasco, Garrett Cooper, Chase Anderson, Dominic Leone, Eddie Rosario, Jesse Winker, Kevin Pillar, Jesse Chavez, Brad Keller, Curt Casali and José Ureña — are currently on MLB rosters. Joely Rodríguez, Tyler Duffey, Matt Barnes and Drew Pomeranz made it to the big leagues but were subsequently removed from the 40-man roster; Barnes and Pomeranz are free agents.

Bryan Shaw, Matt Duffy and Carl Edwards Jr. are on new minor league deals after opting out in Spring Training. Six others — Elvis Andrus, Eduardo Escobar, Mike Moustakas, C.J. Cron, Jake Odorizzi and Kolten Wong — are free agents after being released.

That left seven players with opt-out chances on May 1. While none of them took that immediately, David Peralta opted out of his deal with the Cubs on May 13. He inked a minor league contract with the Padres a few days later and was added to the MLB roster on May 22. Let’s check in on the six remaining players who can retest free agency tomorrow — plus one player whose deal contains a contractual opt-out provision.

Marisnick has had a tough time staying healthy in 2024. The glove-first outfielder has only played in 12 games with the Angels’ top affiliate in Salt Lake. He hasn’t hit in a limited sample, going 5-32 with 14 strikeouts and one walk. Marinsick was out of action between mid-April and the second week of May. He appeared in seven contests before going back on the injured list on May 25. He’s probably best served staying with the Halos, who are without Mike Trout and leaning on Mickey Moniak as their primary center fielder. Moniak is hitting .175/.214/.250 over 126 plate appearances.

Votto’s homecoming has been held up by a Spring Training ankle injury. The former MVP has yet to play in a minor league game. There’s no reason to expect the Toronto native will opt out. Neither Justin Turner nor Daniel Vogelbach is hitting well for the Jays, so there could be an opportunity for Votto once he’s healthy. Vogelbach, as a left-handed hitting DH, is the most direct competition. He has a .167/.273/.292 slash and has only started 13 of the team’s 55 games.

Choi, a lefty-hitting first baseman, was on the injured list for his prior opt-out chance. He’s healthy now, returning to Triple-A Syracuse on May 14. Choi hasn’t gotten into any kind of rhythm offensively, though. The 33-year-old had a .189/.319/.378 slash before hitting the IL. He owns a .171/.268/.286 mark in the 10 games since his return. Choi isn’t hitting well enough to merit a major league opportunity, though he could look for a different minor league contract with Pete Alonso, J.D. Martinez and Mark Vientos firmly above him on the first base/DH depth chart.

Greene pitched in six games for Triple-A Round Rock in April. He allowed 15 runs in eight innings and was placed on the injured list. The Express transferred the veteran righty to the full-season IL two weeks ago, ruling him out for the year.

Neither Fulmer nor Pérez has played this season. Fulmer will miss the entire year after undergoing elbow surgery last fall. His contract is a two-year deal; he almost certainly won’t opt out.

Pérez missed most of 2023 after undergoing a rotator cuff repair on his right shoulder. He played in seven games this spring but has spent the regular season on the minor league IL with an undisclosed injury. The Sox have gotten strong play from their catching tandem of Connor Wong and Reese McGuire. Perhaps Pérez feels there’s a better path to playing time if he signs a minor league deal with another team, but it seems likelier he’ll stick in the organization.

Kemp is not one of the aforementioned Article XX(b) players. He’s playing on a minor league deal that he signed in mid-April with the Twins. Darren Wolfson of SKOR North reported (on X) earliest this month that Kemp’s contract contains a June 1 opt-out date. The left-handed hitting second baseman/left fielder has struggled for Triple-A St. Paul, batting .193/.316/.325 with three homers across 98 plate appearances.

That’s mostly attributable to poor ball in play results. Kemp has shown his typically strong plate discipline, walking 13 times against 17 strikeouts. He has been plagued by a .206 average on balls in play. Kemp was briefly on the Orioles’ big league roster in April and has appeared in parts of nine MLB seasons overall. He hit .209/.303/.404 in 124 games with the A’s a season ago.

Jurickson Profar Is Rewarding The Padres’ Faith

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The Padres overhauled much of the roster as they navigated payroll constraints last winter. The outfield was more stripped down than retooled, as San Diego traded Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to both offload Soto’s massive arbitration salary and address a pitching staff that lost four possible starters to free agency. While San Diego subsequently poked around the free agent and trade markets for outfield help, the payroll limitations led them to enter camp with two question marks alongside Fernando Tatis Jr.

Within a couple weeks of exhibition play, it became clear the Padres were going to turn left and center field to Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill, respectively. San Diego signed Profar for a barely more than the league minimum in mid-February. Merrill was a 20-year-old shortstop prospect who had never played above Double-A nor logged any game reps in center field before Spring Training. That outfield alignment at least carried ample risk. At worst, it might be the difference between making and missing the postseason for a fringe Wild Card contender.

Through two months, San Diego’s outfield has instead been its biggest strength. Tatis isn’t the same player he was before injuries and a failed PED test wiped out his 2022 season, but he’s an above-average regular. Merrill is hitting at a league average level and playing plus defense at his new position, remarkable work for a player less than three years removed from high school. Yet it’s Profar who has been by far the biggest contributor. He has not only been San Diego’s best player, he’s one of the top performers in the National League.

Profar is hitting .323/.421/.495 across 233 plate appearances. He has hit eight home runs, one shy of the total he managed in 125 games between the Rockies and San Diego last year. Profar is drawing walks at a personal-high 13.3% clip while keeping his strikeout rate at a customarily low 14.2% mark. He’s hitting the ball harder than he has at any point in his career. This season’s 41% hard contact percentage is almost 10 points higher than last year’s middling 31.7% rate.

There’ll very likely be some amount of regression in the next few months. Profar isn’t going to keep pace with the likes of Soto, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman all season. His career has been defined by wild swings in performance. Profar was a slightly above-average hitter in 2018, ’20 and ’22. His performance in the intervening odd seasons was at or below replacement level. Yet this year’s production is unprecedented even for an extremely high-variance player. Before this year, Profar’s career-best OPS over any 59-game span was an .876 mark he managed in the second half of 2018 while a member of the Rangers (h/t to the Baseball Reference Span Finder). This season’s .916 is 40 points higher.

Profar has already more than made good on San Diego’s $1MM investment. Even if his bat were to completely crater in the next few months, bringing him back would be a win for the Padres. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has long valued Profar more than the rest of the league (and most outside observers) would.

He made a surprising three-year, $21MM bet on the former top prospect during the 2020-21 offseason. San Diego brought him back last fall after Profar played his way off a Rockies team on its way to 103 losses. They didn’t bring in another left fielder to push Profar to the bench this spring. That’s largely because of financial constraints, of course, but San Diego also balked at what proved to be a $3MM price point for Tommy Pham while spending similar salaries on Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui and Woo-Suk Go. Preller certainly wouldn’t have anticipated Profar being the team’s best hitter, but it’s probably fair to say he had higher expectations for his left fielder than almost anyone else did.

San Diego heads into the weekend with a 30-29 record that has them in the third Wild Card spot in the National League. They’re still a borderline contender whose season could go a number of ways in the next few months. It would likely take a major collapse for them to sell at the trade deadline, so Profar should play the entire season in San Diego. He’ll return to free agency next offseason going into his age-32 campaign.

Profar has not previously received a qualifying offer, so he would be eligible for the QO if the Padres hang onto him all year. While it seems unlikely the Padres would put a one-year offer worth more than $20MM on the table, it’s not entirely out of the question depending on well Profar hits in the second half. If he hits the market unencumbered by draft compensation, he could land the biggest guarantee of his career. He’s at least trending toward a two-year deal and would have an argument for a three-year pact in the Jeimer Candelario ($45MM) or Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($42MM with an opt-out) range if his bat doesn’t wilt down the stretch.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

The New And Improved Clarke Schmidt

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A lot has gone right for the Yankees in 2024. Even without the services of reigning Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole through the season’s 30% mark, they find themselves atop the American League East by a measure of two games over the second-place Orioles. The Rays, eight games back, are a distant third. Boston and Toronto follow with deficits of 8.5 games and 10.5 games, respectively.

Beyond Cole’s absence, the Yanks dealt with a prolonged slump for 2022 MVP Aaron Judge and have yet to get so much as a single at-bat from DJ LeMahieu due to a fractured foot suffered in spring training. Setup man Jonathan Loaisiga pitched only four innings before requiring internal brace surgery. On the flip side, Juan Soto has lived up to the billing as a middle-of-the-order force. Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes both look like the pitchers the Yankees expected them to be in 2023. Marcus Stroman has handled himself well, albeit with an uncharacteristic uptick in walks.

For all the big names turning in marquee and/or rebound performances, the Yankees have also seen substantial improvement from a key in-house arm. Righty Clarke Schmidt was a top prospect long before he made his MLB debut, and he made 29 serviceable starts last season, so it’s not as though he wasn’t expected to contribute at all this year. But heading into the season, Schmidt looked like a clear back-of-the-rotation arm.

About one-third of the way through the 2024 season, that’s no longer the case. Schmidt still looks the part of a big league starter, but he’s taken considerable steps forward and now looks like far more than a garden variety innings eater. Schmidt has upped his velocity by a bit more than a mile per hour on both his cutter (up from 91.5 mph to 92.6 mph) and sinker (93.6 mph in 2023, 94.7 mph in 2024). Schmidt is also taking a page from the Corbin Burnes playbook, throwing more cutters than at any point in his career, and doing so at the expense of his sweeper and sinker. It’s not an overwhelming change in pitch selection, but Schmidt has gone from throwing that cutter around 28% of the time to 35.5% of the time in 2024.

The biggest change for Schmidt, however, isn’t necessarily one of pitch usage but rather of pitch effectiveness. Opponents in 2023 teed off on his sweeper, blasting the pitch at a .276/.331/.559 pace when putting it into play. Opponents basically became 2023-24 Gunnar Henderson when putting Schmidt’s sweeper into play. That’s … not good. (Well, not good for Schmidt.)

In 2024, Schmidt has actually taken a bit of life off that breaking ball. Coupled with the uptick in cutter/sinker velocity, the gap between those harder pitches and his primary breaking ball has widened by around two miles per hour. Last year saw a 5.3 mph gap between his cutter and sweeper, and a 7.4 mph gap between the sinker and sweeper. This year, those differentials are up to respective marks of 6.9 mph and 9.0 mph. Additionally, by measure of Statcast, Schmidt’s sweeper is also generating an extra 3.3 inches of horizontal break over last year’s version of the pitch.

The tweaks are subtle but the changes in Schmidt’s results aren’t. Through his first 10 starts of the season, the right-hander touts a 2.59 ERA (3.54 FIP, 3.38 SIERA). His strikeout rate is up from 21.5% to a career-best 27.2%. His walk rate has worsened, but only slightly, and at 7.6%, it’s still a percentage point better than the league average. Schmidt is generating more swinging strikes (10.2% in 2023, 12.2% in 2024), getting more called strikes and has seen his opponents’ contact rates drop both in the zone and off the plate. A hearty 41% of batted balls against Schmidt last year traveled 95 mph or more, but this year that rate is down to 34.8%. His opponents’ average exit velocity is down roughly one mile per hour. He’s allowing less contact, and the balls that are put into play against him are generally more timid in nature.

Schmidt’s step forward is well-timed for the Yankees on multiple fronts. Not only does it dovetail with a time when rotation depth is paramount for the Yankees as they await Cole’s return, it also comes when Schmidt is still controllable for a considerable period of time. Schmidt is 28 and already into arbitration, earning $2.184MM this season, but he’s a Super Two player who was only first-time eligible this past offseason. The Yankees control him for three more seasons.

While Schmidt’s arb price will rise considerably if he can sustain even 80% of the gains he’s made this season, he’ll still be priced well below market levels at a time when the Yankees are in the final years of some relatively heavy veteran contracts. Stroman ($18.5MM next season, plus an $18MM vesting option for 2026), Anthony Rizzo ($17MM club option), LeMahieu ($15MM in 2025 and 2026), will all still be on the books in the short-term, when Schmidt’s price tag is particularly affordable. Given the Yankees’ long-term commitments to Cole, Judge, Rodon and Giancarlo Stanton — plus their obvious hope of re-signing Soto — having low-cost contributors like Schmidt play key roles is of even greater importance.

Speaking of Soto, his very presence on the roster made it crucial that Schmidt and other in-house arms step up in 2024. The Yankees parted with notable pitching depth to acquire Soto from San Diego, sending Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez and top prospect Drew Thorpe to the Padres in that package. King would’ve been locked into a rotation spot in the Bronx, and each of Brito, Vasquez and Thorpe were depth options for this year’s rotation. You could argue it’s a quantity-over-quality group, but the Soto trade left the Yankees with much less depth to rely on in the event of injuries. A step back from Schmidt would’ve been magnified even further with Cole on the shelf.

Instead, Schmidt has taken significant steps forward — thanks to changes that make much of his improvement feel sustainable. He’s not likely to keep running a sub-3.00 ERA, but Schmidt looks far more like a mid-3.00s type of pitcher than the 2023 version of himself that appeared ticketed for a mid-4.00s mark.

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