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Looking For A Match In An Alex Verdugo Trade

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Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo saw his name floated around the trade deadline as a potential trade candidate, and though no trade ultimately came together, it’s worth noting that the club did field interest from clubs including both the Yankees and Astros regarding Verdugo at the deadline. With new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow now in place, the club’s focus figures to turn toward the offseason proper, and Verdugo once again makes sense as a trade candidate.

After all, the club has plenty of quality outfield options. Masataka Yoshida is entrenched in left field after a strong first stateside campaign, while the likes of Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela all represent solid young outfield options that the Red Sox have previously expressed belief in. Of that quartet, only Rafaela bats right-handed, so Verdugo’s presence does little to balance out the club’s heavily left-handed outfield mix. With just one year of team control remaining before Verdugo hits free agency, the 27-year-old sticks out as a prime trade candidate for a Boston club looking to pull itself back into contention after back-to-back last place finishes in the AL East.

That’s not to say Verdugo isn’t a quality player in his own right, of course. He’s been a roughly league average bat in each of the past three seasons, slashing .278/.334/.417 with a wRC+ of 102 since the start of the 2021 campaign. He paired that average offensive with above-average defense in right field this year, as he posted a solid +1 Outs Above Average alongside a more impressive +9 Defensive Runs Saved. Only Fernando Tatis Jr. had a higher DRS in right field this year, per Fielding Bible.

The lackluster free agent market for position players further bolsters Verdugo’s potential trade candidacy. While the top of the market features Cody Bellinger, who is coming off his best season since his 2019 MVP campaign, the rest of the market pales in comparison with the likes of Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Pham, and Jorge Soler among the group’s highlights. For teams in need of short-term outfield help, a one-year commitment to Verdugo (who MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects to make $9.2MM in his final trip through arbitration) could make more sense than targeting one of those mid-tier free agents who could potentially be in search of a multi-year deal.

Teams that are unlikely to contend in 2023 are easy to eliminate from this exercise, as they wouldn’t particularly stand to benefit from a one-year deal with Verdugo. That would seem to eliminate the A’s, Nationals, Rockies, Royals, and White Sox from the list of potential teams. Teams without a significant need for a corner outfield bat are also fairly easy to eliminate. The Angels, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Giants, Orioles, Rangers, Rays, Reds, Tigers, and Twins all appear to be fairly set in the outfield corners. That still leaves 12 teams that could potentially have interest in Verdugo’s services, however. Let’s take a look at how they match up…

Best Fits:

  • Astros: Houston was one of the teams linked to the Red Sox at the trade deadline, and it’s easy to see why given the club’s desire to acquire a left-handed outfielder to complement Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick, given the uncertain health situation of veteran Michael Brantley at the time. It stands to reason that the club’s interest in Verdugo would continue into this offseason, with Brantley set to hit free agency and leave an opening in the club’s left field mix. Verdugo would provide quality defense in left field and complement the right-handed bats of McCormick and Meyers alongside fellow lefty Kyle Tucker, who figures to play every day in right.
  • Braves: The Braves hold a $9MM option on the services of Eddie Rosario for the 2024 season, and while Rosario bounced back from a brutal 2022 campaign to post league average offensive numbers this year, Verdugo would be a more consistent player with stronger defense at roughly the same financial cost. The clear upgrade Verdugo provides for the Braves over their current left field mix makes Atlanta a strong potential landing spot for Verdugo, who would join Michael Harris II and Ronald Acuna Jr. in the outfield while allowing Marcell Ozuna to remain as the club’s regular DH.
  • Dodgers: As unusual as it would be for the Dodgers to trade for Verdugo just four seasons after including him in the package that brought Mookie Betts from Boston to LA, Verdugo would be an excellent fit for the Dodgers, who are set to lose lefty corner bats David Peralta and Jason Heyward to free agency this offseason. Though a healthy season from Gavin Lux would allow Betts to patrol right field on a regular basis again in 2024 after spending much of 2023 on the infield dirt, the club still figures to be in need of an outfield regular alongside Betts and James Outman. Additionally, Verdugo’s left-handed bat would complement the right-handed bat of Chris Taylor, who figures to play a utility role in both the infield and outfield next season.
  • Mariners: After acquiring a one-year stopgap in right field last offseason when they landed Teoscar Hernandez in a trade with the Blue Jays, Seattle figures to once again be in need of corner outfield help this offseason. While Julio Rodriguez has locked down center field and Jarred Kelenic showed enough positive signs this year to warrant a regular role in left, the Mariners’ options beyond that duo are few and far between, with the likes of Cade Marlowe, Sam Haggerty and Taylor Trammell among their best choices. Verdugo, much like Hernandez this season, would provide the club with a quality regular who can lock down a corner spot and allow the Mariners to focus on other areas this offseason.
  • Yankees: As rare as trades between the longtime rivals once were, they’ve become more common in recent years, including a deal that sent Greg Allen to New York earlier this year and a trade that moved Adam Ottavino to Boston back in 2021. While a Verdugo deal would be more significant than either of those two trades, the Yankees are in clear need of both left-handed bats to balance their lineup and could use two outfield bats to pair with Aaron Judge, assuming the club doesn’t want to count on Giancarlo Stanton as an everyday outfielder. Verdugo would fill both of those needs without adding another long-term contract to a payroll in New York that features five guaranteed contracts that extend through 2026 or longer.

Next Tier Down:

  • Guardians: The Guardians are well-established as a team in need of outfield help. Though Steven Kwan figures to remain entrenched in left field and Myles Straw is under contract in center long term, Ramon Laureano is a non-tender or trade candidate in right field and Straw could easily be pushed into a fourth outfielder role if Cleveland acquired an outfielder better suited to an everyday role. Verdugo would fit the club’s lineup nicely, taking over for Laureano in right field and offer a reliable bat to an outfield group that posted the second-worst wRC+ in the majors last year, 16% worse than league average. Unfortunately, the fit is less clean than it may appear, as Verdugo would immediately become the third highest-paid player on the club’s roster behind only Jose Ramirez and Shane Bieber. Given the Guardians typically run payrolls at or near the bottom of the league, the club may prefer to look for lower-cost fliers in free agency to boost their outfield production rather than spend both financial and prospect capital to bring in Verdugo.
  • Marlins: Miami will see one of its best bats in Jorge Soler depart for free agency this offseason, leaving a clear hole in the lineup. While Soler was primarily used as a DH, the addition of Verdugo in the outfield would allow the club to platoon Bryan De La Cruz and Jesus Sanchez, opening up the DH spot for an additional bat to improve a lackluster Marlins offense. That being said, given the presence of De La Cruz, Sanchez, and Avisail Garcia on the roster, Miami might be better served focusing on upgrading at shortstop, where the club currently projects to utilize Jon Berti as an everyday option.
  • Padres: The outfield in San Diego is currently well-stocked, with superstars Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. in the corners and Trent Grisham getting the lion’s share of playing time in center. With that being said, rumors have already begun to percolate this offseason that the Padres could look to move Soto in trade this offseason in hopes of cutting payroll. If the club does move on from Soto, that would create a hole in left field that Verdugo could slide into nicely. Verdugo projects to make almost $24MM less than Soto in 2024, and while his bat is not nearly as valuable as Soto’s he provides significantly more defensive value and is a clearly capable everyday player in left, which the Padres would lack without Soto on the team. Of course, if the team doesn’t move on from Soto this offseason, San Diego would no longer be a fit for Verdugo’s services.

Longer Shots:

  • Blue Jays: With Kevin Kiermaier set to depart for free agency this offseason, the Blue Jays will be in need of an outfield bat to pair with George Springer and Daulton Varsho, even as the likes of Spencer Horwitz and Ernie Clement provide reasonable depth options. While Verdugo could certainly fill that role, Toronto may not want to commit to Varsho as the club’s regular center fielder, seeing as the 26-year-old has never started more than 50 games at the position in a season during his career. What’s more, after a disappointing offensive season from the club, it’s reasonable to think the Blue Jays may prefer to add a bat with a stronger offensive profile than Verdugo, who’s 112 wRC+ in 106 games with the Dodgers during the 2019 season represents his best full season offensively.
  • Mets: After parting with Mark Canha and Tommy Pham at the trade deadline, the Mets have a clear opening in left field where Verdugo would represent a clear improvement over the club’s incumbent options. That being said, the rumors have indicated that the club may look to take a bit of a step back in 2024 after a difficult 2023 campaign, and the club has plenty of young players who could feasibly take a step forward with regular playing time in 2024 including Bretty Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and Mark Vientos. An opening in the outfield would allow the Mets to provide more playing time to those players, whether by directly playing them in left or by moving multi-positional veteran Jeff McNeil to left, thereby opening up time on the infield dirt.
  • Phillies: Whether the Phillies look to add a first baseman or outfielder this offseason could hinge on where Bryce Harper hopes to play in 2024, but in the event Harper spends next season at first base, Verdugo could provide the club with a quality defensive outfielder who would provide more certainty than relying on the likes of Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache to play alongside Brandon Marsh and Nick Castellanos. That being said, Verdugo’s lefty bat makes for an imperfect fit in a Philadelphia lineup that already features Harper, Marsh, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryson Stott, further complicating Verdugo’s fit with the Phillies.
  • Pirates: While the Pirates lack an obvious starter in the outfield alongside Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski, the club figures to continue attempting to convert catcher Henry Davis to the outfield in 2024, likely filling the club’s outfield mix at least in the early part of the season. What’s more, the annual low budgets in Pittsburgh make a deal for Verdugo seem even more unlikely, as the club would presumably look to reunite with veteran outfielder and franchise legend Andrew McCutchen, who is set to hit free agency this offseason, if they were to dedicate resources to their outfield mix.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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The Phillies held 2-0 and 3-2 leads in the NLCS, but dropped Games 6 and 7 at home to fall short of another World Series appearance.  There is no doubt the Phils will reload for another championship run in 2024, yet they’ll have to address the possible departure of two long-time franchise staples.

Guaranteed Contracts

Total 2024 commitments: $179.9MM
Total long-term commitments: $724.73MM

Option Decisions

  • Scott Kingery, IF/OF: $13MM club option for 2024 ($1MM buyout; Phillies also hold $29MM worth of club options on Kingery for the 2025-26 seasons)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

Only four of the 40 players drafted by the Phillies in the 2014 draft ended up reaching the majors, with Austin Davis making 136 appearances (50 for Philadelphia) and Brandon Leibrandt pitching in five games with the Marlins in 2020.  Fortunately for the Phils, their other two selections paid bigger dividends, as seventh overall pick Aaron Nola debuted barely a year after his draft date and became a front-of-the-rotation cornerstone.  Rhys Hoskins didn’t reach the Show until 2017, but he finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting in his debut season and provided six seasons of solid (126 wRC+) offense as the team’s regular first baseman, after an ill-advised experiment as a left fielder early in his career.

Both players are now set to hit the open market, and for Hoskins, he didn’t even get to properly enjoy what might be a final year in the City of Brotherly Love.  A torn left ACL during Spring Training cost Hoskins his entire season, and his subsequent efforts to possibly make it back for some DH duty during the World Series were cut short when the Phillies were ousted by the Diamondbacks in the NLCS.

One of Dave Dombrowski’s first major moves after being hired as president of baseball operations in late 2020 was to re-sign J.T. Realmuto in free agency during the 2020-21 offseason.  So, Dombrowski and the Philadelphia organization in general aren’t afraid to bring back their own guys, even at a high price tag driven by the open market.  Re-signing Realmuto cost five years and $115.5MM, and it looks like it’ll take way more to bring Nola back into the fold, as reports have suggested that the two sides were far apart in previous extension talks.  The Phillies were reportedly looking to retain Nola for four or five more seasons, but the right-hander and his camp was aiming for an eight-year pact worth more than $200MM.

Nola is going to be one of the top pitchers available this winter, and even with the price of pitching always high on the free agent market, it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to approach the $200MM threshold.  Nola doesn’t turn 31 until June and he has a long track record of durability, plus 2022 was arguably the best season of his career.  However, Nola was more good than great in 2023, as an inflated home run rate led to a 4.46 ERA over 193 2/3 innings, and his 25.5% strikeout rate was his lowest since 2016.

The Phillies will make re-signing Nola “our priority,” according to Dombrowski, so a reunion might well be coming.  Or, if the club has doubts about Nola’s production beyond his mid-30’s, the team might feel its free agent dollars are best spent elsewhere.  The question then becomes whether or not Philadelphia might make another rotation splash, especially with some other long-term questions surrounding Zack Wheeler’s future.

The 2024 rotation currently lines up as Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Wallker, Cristopher Sanchez, and potentially Matt Strahm as the fifth starter.  Strahm looked quite good as a fill-in starter early in the season before being moved back to the bullpen and continuing to excel in relief work.  Philadelphia could explore stretching out Strahm in Spring Training to give him a fuller look as a starting pitcher and let him compete for any possible open rotation job.  Top prospect Mick Abel figures to make his MLB debut sometime in 2024, and another top minor leaguer in Andrew Painter is likely out of next season’s plans entirely since he underwent Tommy John surgery last July.

It is perhaps worth mentioning the hard feelings that seem to have emerged with Walker and club management, as the right-hander has shown some public displeasure on social media over not being used during the playoffs.  This doesn’t necessarily suggest that Walker will be traded or anything, and a deal might be hard to find anyway.  Walker had a modest 4.38 ERA and some very lackluster secondary numbers over 172 2/3 innings in 2023, and he still has $54MM remaining on a contract signed just last winter.  Cooler heads might very well prevail over the course of the offseason, but this could perhaps be an under-the-radar situation to monitor on the trade front.

Of course, trading a starter isn’t likely to happen until the Phillies have figured out how to replace Nola.  If the righty doesn’t re-sign, the Phils could explore signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, or Jordan Montgomery as the team’s next long-term ace.  Wheeler is set for free agency himself next winter, and will still command another big payday beyond his age-34 season if he keeps pitching as well as he did in 2023.  The Phillies figure to discuss an extension with Wheeler this winter, and if he is amenable to a relatively short-term pact given his age, perhaps he might be the one who ends up with a new deal of four or five seasons.

Philadelphia doesn’t have the deepest farm system in the world, but with the team in clear win-now mode, Dombrowski could again dip into the minor league ranks to explore adding another arm.  Tyler Glasnow, Corbin Burnes, or Shane Bieber are all one-year rentals and would be available at the right (hefty) price, while the more controllable starters on the trade market would come at an even steeper cost of talent.

The bullpen also needs some attention, as Craig Kimbrel is set to return to the open market after his one year as the Phillies’ closer.  Kimbrel pitched well for much of the season, but a pair of high-profile blowups during the NLCS cost Philadelphia two games and his closer’s role for the rest of the series.  While a small sample size, it does continue Kimbrel’s somewhat inconsistent play over the last three seasons, and the Phillies might not want to take a chance again if they have doubts over Kimbrel’s ability to perform in the playoff spotlight.

Jose Alvarado is the obvious internal name to become closer if Kimbrel isn’t re-signed, and if Orion Kerkering is ready for a bigger role in his first full MLB season, the Phillies might look towards only more mid-tier names in their offseason bullpen shopping.  Of course, with the team’s propensity for big-ticket moves, there will probably be some level of speculation linking Josh Hader to the Phils until Hader eventually picks his next team.

While Kimbrel, Hoskins, Nola, and Michael Lorenzen represent a decent chunk of money coming off the books, the Phillies already have (as per Roster Resource) roughly $212.3MM in actual dollars and a $228MM luxury tax number attached to their 2024 payroll.  Last season’s Opening Day payroll sat close to the $243MM mark, and with a tax number around $263MM — above the second tax tier, but under the $273MM threshold that would’ve triggered a ten-position drop for Philadelphia’s first pick in the 2024 draft.

It isn’t known exactly where managing partner John Middleton might draw the line on spending, but Middleton clearly has no issue in committing big money to keep the Phillies in contention.  After the last two seasons’ worth of close calls, Middleton might be even more willing to spend to add the final pieces to the championship puzzle.

To this end, the Phillies will at least check in on Shohei Ohtani out of pure due diligence if nothing else.  Obviously such a signing would be an imperfect fit within the Phils’ lineup, as Ohtani in the DH slot would lock in Bryce Harper at first base and Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos into corner outfield duty.  But, since the Phillies are one of the organizations with deep enough pockets to meet Ohtani’s record-setting asking price, they make sense as a potential suitor for the two-way star this winter.

Accommodating Ohtani might be a reason for the Phillies to cost themselves some positional flexibility, yet doing the same to re-sign Hoskins might be another matter.  Hoskins is likely to just sign a one-year deal this winter as he attempts to prove himself healthy and worthy of a longer-term contract next offseason, so re-signing Hoskins wouldn’t represent a huge investment for Philadelphia.  The team might even issue Hoskins a qualifying offer, if they’re okay with paying Hoskins $20.5MM coming off a torn ACL since it’s hard to imagine the first baseman would turn down such a payday.  With Hoskins so likely to accept a QO, the Phillies might want to hold off on further clogging their first base/DH situation until they get a better read on Ohtani’s market.

Harper’s ability to handle first base gave the Phils more defensive flexibility last year, allowing for Schwarber to DH and for both Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas to get more looks in the outfield.  Harper may also return to at least part-time work in his old right field position, now that he is further removed from his Tommy John surgery.  In short, keeping a first base-only player like Hoskins would limit what the Phillies could do around the diamond.  Defense continued to be a problem for the Phillies over the course of the 2023 season, and since the everyday lineup is already pretty set, adding a utility type instead of Hoskins would add more overall depth.

The relative stability of the starting lineup presents Dombrowski with an interesting challenge this winter.  Almost every team would love to have a core like Philadelphia’s star-laden lineup, and an argument can easily be made that the Phils should just run things back with the same group in 2024 and hope things can fully click in October.  “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” might apply here, except the NLCS might have revealed some cracks in that foundation.

For instance, could the Phillies explore trading either Castellanos or Alec Bohm?  Castellanos hit for more power and had a lot more strikeouts in 2023, but the two were similarly productive overall — Bohm had a 105 wRC+ and 1.1 fWAR, while Castellanos had a 109 wRC+ and 1.0 fWAR.  Offense was the backbone of those fWAR numbers, as Castellanos was again very subpar in right field while Bohm actually improved to above-average third base glovework in the views of the UZR/150 and OAA metrics, even if Defensive Runs Saved (-10) continued to dismiss his efforts.

Obviously, trading Bohm would be a lot simpler for the Phils from a salary perspective.  The former third overall pick is just entering his arbitration years and is controlled through 2026, while Castellanos’ contract entitles him to $60MM over that same timeframe.  Barring taking on another team’s undesirable contract, the Phillies would have to either eat money in a Castellanos trade or include some significant prospect capital to sweeten the pot, whereas a rival club might think Bohm could fully break out with a change of scenery.

Moving Castellanos would further help the Phillies’ defensive issues, as either Harper could just return to right field and a new first baseman (or a re-signed Hoskins) could join the fold, or Philadelphia could obtain a new corner outfielder altogether.  Likewise, trading Bohm could open up third base for a better defensive option and a more proven hitter.

This is all easier said than done, of course, and team chemistry elements must be considered beyond just a pure baseball fit.  However, Dombrowski has a long history of creative trades, whether it’s trading prospects for proven stars or even dealing an established big league player (i.e. Rick Porcello for Yoenis Cespedes, or Prince Fielder for Ian Kinsler) for another that may be a better fit for his team’s needs.  While the pitching staff will be the Phillies’ top priority this winter, not much can be ruled out when Dombrowski is making calls, Middleton is willing to write the checks, and the pressure to win is increasing after two near-misses.

In conjunction with this post, Mark Polishuk held a Phillies-centric live chat with MLBTR readers.  Click here to read the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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Getting swept out of the ALDS by the Rangers brought a sour end to an otherwise very successful season in Baltimore.  The Orioles won 101 games to capture the AL East, and the best may be yet to come given all of the young talent still to emerge out of the loaded farm system.

Guaranteed Contracts

Other Financial Obligations

Total 2024 commitments: $5MM
Total future commitments: $8MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The O’s turned the corner on their rebuild by winning 83 games in 2022, yet general manager Mike Elias has thus far taken a conservative response to his team’s breakout.  He still opted to sell at the 2022 trade deadline, yet the deals of Trey Mancini to the Astros and (especially) Jorge Lopez to the Twins now look quite shrewd in the bigger picture.  Elias then made mostly short-term moves last winter, adding Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier, and Mychal Givens on one-year contracts and acquiring James McCann in a salary dump of a trade with the Mets.  Even at this past season’s trade deadline, with the Orioles posting one of baseball’s top records, Elias picked up the struggling Jack Flaherty rather than a more prominent starting pitcher.  As it turned out, Flaherty didn’t pitch well in Baltimore, and fell out of the rotation entirely by September.

The big question facing the Orioles this winter is simply, will Elias and team ownership get more aggressive in adding win-now pieces to what might be a burgeoning powerhouse?  Some caution was understandable after 2022 since Elias probably didn’t want to jump to conclusions that his team was ready to contend….yet a 101-win season now removes all doubt.

Baltimore’s rebuilding process led to a corresponding slash of spending, as the Orioles have been a bottom-four payroll team in each of the last five seasons.  As per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Orioles’ Opening Day payroll in 2023 was slightly under $61MM, and the second-lowest total of any team.  Based on their negligible long-term salary commitments and the projections of their arbitration-eligible players, the O’s have only $58.5MM lined up for their 2024 payroll, and even that number should be a bit smaller in the event of a few non-tenders from the arb class.

It’s worth remembering that during their last contention window in the mid-10s, the Orioles were regularly in the top half in league spending, and ranked as high as ninth in Opening Day payroll (a little under $147.7MM) heading into the 2016 season.  This doesn’t mean that the Orioles need to vault back up to that number over the course of one winter, but an argument can surely be made that Elias and the team have earned a larger investment in their on-field endeavors.

Unfortunately, ownership’s top priority right now might not be on the team itself.  The Orioles and the state of Maryland reached a “memorandum of understanding” in September that laid the groundwork for the O’s to remain in Baltimore for the next 30 years, in addition to a wider-ranging project that will see extra land surrounding Camden Yards be redeveloped into something of a ballpark village, akin to the Battery area adjacent to the Braves’ Truist Park.  While there seems to be an understanding in place between the team and civic officials that the deal will be completed soon, the fact remains that the agreement isn’t yet set in stone, even with the Orioles’ current least at Camden Yards expiring on December 31.

As such, it doesn’t seem like the player payroll will get any major boost until these future revenue streams have been firmly secured, or even until the revenues start rolling in for the team.  “I don’t think you should run losses.  I think you should live within your means and within your market,” club chairman/CEO John Angelos told the New York Times’ Tyler Kepner in August.  In regards to player salaries, Angelos explained “let’s say we sat down and showed you the financials for the Orioles.  You will quickly see that when people talk about giving this player $200MM, that player $150MM, we would be so financially underwater that you’d have to raise the prices massively.  Now, are people going to come and pay that?….But really that’s just one team. What I’m really trying to think about is macro.”

Angelos’ interview quickly became infamous among Baltimore fans, and may have halted any speculation that the team might pursue contract extensions with Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westburg, or any other Orioles blue-chipper youngsters.  Or, that the O’s will make a big splash on a top-tier free agent this offseason as a veteran leader for its young core.  This doesn’t mean that the payroll won’t go up to some extent, as the Orioles did at least increase spending by around $17MM from 2022 to 2023.  But, if the front office is still being limited in what it can spend, Elias will have to get creative in adding some needed pieces to the roster.

The bright side for Elias is that his roster might already be pretty set.  The Austin Hays/Cedric Mullins/Anthony Santander outfield can return intact, Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn can split first base and DH duties with O’Hearn chipping in as a corner outfielder, Rutschman is locked in at catcher, Henderson will play every day at either third base or shortstop, and some combination of Westburg, Ramon Urias, and Jorge Mateo can handle second base and the other infield position that Henderson isn’t playing.

If this wasn’t enough, top prospects Heston Kjerstad, Joey Ortiz, and Colton Cowser all made their MLB debuts in 2023, and 2019 second-round pick Kyle Stowers is part of the outfield picture.  And if that wasn’t enough, the O’s also have Jackson Holliday (the top prospect in baseball) perhaps ready to make his debut as early as Opening Day, not to mention the likes of Coby Mayo, Connor Norby, Dylan Beavers, and Jud Fabian also knocking on the door for big league playing time.

Not all of these prospects will pan out, of course, and different rival teams undoubtedly have their own varying opinions on minor leaguers throughout the Orioles’ farm system.  But, it isn’t a stretch to say that Baltimore has the prospect depth to get involved in talks about almost any available trade target in baseball, thus giving Elias a way to add premium talent without spending big on a notable free agent contract.  In fact, the O’s could even explore adding a high-priced trade target and have the other team cover most of the player’s salary, provided the Orioles are willing to up the amount of young talent they gave up in return.

Likewise, the Orioles’ faith in their youngsters could also turn some of their own more experienced players into trade chips.  If the O’s think Mayo is ready to contribute right away in the corner infield picture, they could look to trade Mountcastle to a team in need of first base help.  If Westburg is seen as an everyday player and Holliday is coming quickly, one of Urias or Mateo could be dealt to an infield-needy club.  Kjerstad or Cowser might be able to step into an outfield role, thus making Mullins, Hays, or (most likely of the group) Santander available.

Santander’s projected $12.7MM arbitration salary puts him on pace to be the team’s highest-paid player in 2024, and he is set to enter free agency in the 2024-25 offseason.  As productive a player as Santander still is, if Baltimore doesn’t see him as part of the future, now might be the time to sell.

With so much position-player depth still in the pipeline, odds are that the Orioles will be wary about adding an everyday-type of player in trades or free agency, as they either don’t want to block a prospect at a certain position, or give up assets to address a position when an internal answer might already be in place.  One possible exception might be Aaron Hicks, whose path to re-signing with Baltimore might only come if one of the Santander/Mullins/Hays trio is traded.  Since the Yankees are still footing the bill on Hicks’ contract for the next two seasons, Hicks can sign for just a minimum contract in free agency, thus giving him the freedom to pick any contender he wants for 2024 or beyond.  Considering how Hicks revived his career after joining the O’s this year, one would imagine he’d certainly have interest in a reunion, and the Orioles might also see Hicks as a needed veteran voice if another outfielder was indeed moved.

If Baltimore does make a blockbuster trade this winter, it is much more likely that it will involve adding a starting pitcher.  To be clear, the Orioles’ rotation is only a weak link in relative terms — as MLBTR’s Nick Deeds recently observed, the pitching staff improved as the season went on, which augurs well for 2024.  The highly-touted Rodriguez got better and better during his rookie year, the O’s will have a full year of John Means now that he’s recovered from Tommy John surgery, and Kyle Bradish was quietly one of the better starters in all of baseball.

With this trio, the solid Dean Kremer, and Tyler Wells, Cole Irvin, Bruce Zimmermann, and DL Hall all battling for a fifth starter’s job, that’s not a bad amount of depth already in the fold.  And, of course, there’s some help on the farm, with Seth Johnson, Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott all likely to be in line for MLB innings next season.  However, even with the caveat that the Rangers’ mighty lineup can make a lot of pitching staffs look bad, the playoffs indicated that Baltimore doesn’t yet have a true frontline rotation.

Re-signing Gibson wouldn’t be too expensive a gambit, yet it can be argued that a mid-rotation arm who can eat innings might not be a priority considering how the rest of the staff developed.  For a division winner looking to contend for a championship, the Orioles could aim higher at a true ace.  Signing a Yoshinobu Yamamoto or a Blake Snell in free agency doesn’t seem feasible given how the O’s don’t seem willing to spend at that level yet, but the trade market presents some interesting options.

Corbin Burnes and Shane Bieber are widely seen as two of the winter’s prime candidates, as both pitchers are a year away from free agency.  Brandon Woodruff’s shoulder surgery might change the equation of the Brewers’ willingness to move Burnes, yet Milwaukee is always in need of the kind of controllable, MLB-ready young players that the Orioles can provide.  Bieber isn’t quite the clear-cut ace he was in his Cy Young-winning prime, yet he would be a nice addition to Baltimore’s rotation, and the Guardians are in sore need of hitting help (particularly in the outfield).  The question here would be how much would the Orioles be willing to give up for just one year of a pitcher’s services, if the O’s wouldn’t be open to re-signing either next offseason.

Tyler Glasnow, Zack Wheeler, and Max Fried are also pitchers slated for free agency after 2024, but they’re all less-likely fits for Baltimore.  While the Rays will probably be open to moving Glasnow’s $25MM salary, moving him to their chief division rival seems improbable.  The Phillies and Braves each have other rotation concerns this offseason that might preclude dealing an ace-level pitcher.

Moving onto more controllable arms, the Orioles still have lots of possibilities.  The Mariners would want the moon and stars to trade George Kirby or Logan Gilbert, but Baltimore’s galaxy of elite prospects would get their attention.  The White Sox want to return to contention next year but if their plans change, Dylan Cease could be available.  The Tigers’ collection of young pitchers have been hampered by early-career injuries, but could be on Baltimore’s radar since Detroit needs some bats.  The Dodgers have a lot of young arms who just made their MLB debuts in 2023, and if L.A. can obtain a veteran arm or two to shore up its rotation, the Dodgers could then address their needs around the diamond by discussing a swap of young pitching for young hitting with the O’s.

Baltimore’s pitching search may also have to expand to the bullpen, now that Felix Bautista will miss all of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery.  The superstar closer was a huge part of the Orioles’ success, and there’s no easy replacement even if Yennier Cano (or Danny Coulombe or Bryan Baker) could step into the ninth-inning role in 2024.  Trading premium prospects for relief pitching doesn’t seem too likely, in part because Wells or Hall might stick in the bullpen if they aren’t needed for rotation work, and because Elias has been so adept at finding and developing relievers.

While that knack for finding hidden gems isn’t easily replicated, the Orioles are probably more likely to again target relievers who haven’t quite emerged at the MLB level yet, despite some quality stuff and upside.  The O’s made such an acquisition in landing Shintaro Fujinami from the Athletics back in July, and while Fujinami didn’t pitch great in Baltimore, the club might consider bringing him back on an inexpensive deal for a second look.

All in all, the Orioles figure to be involved in any number of trade rumors this winter, as rival clubs will undoubtedly be coming calling about their prospects and Elias will surely make some inquiries of his own.  The success of the rebuilding project seems to have outpaced Angelos’ readiness (or willingness) to start boosting payroll, yet there’s no easier path to greater revenues than a championship-level team.  A spending increase to even the $100MM mark would give Elias all the more flexibility to add what might only be some finishing touches on a World Series contender.

In conjunction with this post, Mark Polishuk held an Orioles-centric chat with MLBTR readers.  Click here to read the transcript.

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The World Series?

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The grand finale of the 2023 season is set to begin this evening, as the NL champion Diamondbacks head to Arlington to take on the AL champion Rangers for the first game of this year’s World Series.

Both teams have faced plenty of adversity en route to creating the third ever World Series matchup featuring two Wild Card teams, and they each did so via rather similar paths. After all, both clubs led their division for much of the first half of the season before losing their grip on the role in the second half and settling for a Wild Card spot. Since then, they both swept through the Wild Card series before delivering an additional sweep against a 100-win team in the Division Series. In the Championship Series, both teams were trailing after Game 5 but managed to come back with wins in both Game 6 and Game 7 to win their first pennant in over a decade.

It’s all the more impressive given that neither Texas nor Arizona were expected to be playoff contenders at the beginning of the season: the playoff odds over at Fangraphs gave the Rangers just a 37.7% chance to make the postseason with a 2% chance of a World Series run, while the Diamondbacks were afforded just 15.3% playoff odds and a 0.5% chance to make the World Series, a bottom-ten figure in the majors. What’s more, both clubs lost 100 games just two seasons ago, during the 2021 campaign.

That’s not to say these clubs are the same, of course. Despite their lack of recent postseason history, the Rangers look in many ways like the prototypical October team. They sport a fantastic front three for their starting rotation of Nathan Eovaldi (2.42 ERA in four playoff appearances, 3.63 regular season ERA), Jordan Montgomery (2.16 ERA in five playoff appearances, 2.79 regular season ERA with Texas), and veteran ace Max Scherzer, who struggled in two ALCS starts coming back from a teres major strain but posted a 3.20 ERA during his time with the Rangers during the regular season.

If Scherzer has shaken off the rust enough to look like himself during the World Series, that’s a frightening three-headed monster for Arizona to have to overcome in this series. On the positional side, meanwhile, the Rangers feature a frightening lineup including stars Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, rookies Josh Jung and Evan Carter, and power-hitting sluggers Adolis Garcia and Mitch Garver. As strong as the lineup and rotation in Arlington may be, the club’s bullpen has been its Achilles’ heel this postseason as key relief arms like Jose Leclerc (4.35 postseason ERA) and Will Smith (9.00 postseason ERA) have struggled badly, though Cody Bradford and Aroldis Chapman have gotten stronger results, with a combined 1.50 ERA across 12 innings of work this postseason.

The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, appear as unlikely a pennant winner as they come. They finished with just an 84-78 record in the regular season and a run differential of -14, making them the first ever team to win the NL pennant with a negative run differential. The only other team to make the World Series with a negative run differential were the 1987 Twins, who went on to win it all in seven games over the Cardinals. With that being said, the Diamondbacks are hardly a pushover. Though the club’s .247/.317/.424 slash line this postseason pales in comparison to that of the Rangers, Arizona’s pitching staff has actually posted stronger numbers this October with a 3.31 ERA and 23.4% strikeout rate against Texas’s 3.67 ERA and 19.2% strikeout rate.

That strong pitching performance has come in spite of the struggles of team ace Zac Gallen, who posted a 3.47 ERA and 3.26 FIP in 210 innings during the regular season but has scuffled to a 5.24 ERA in four postseason starts. Veteran righty Merrill Kelly (2.65 ERA in three postseason starts) and rookie Brandon Pfaadt (2.70 ERA in four postseason starts) have managed to pick the club’s rotation up, however, an especially impressive feat considering Pfaadt’s lackluster regular season ERA of 5.72 across 96 innings. The back of the club’s bullpen has also been nothing short of stellar, with closer Paul Sewald and primary set-up man Kevin Ginkel combining for 17 scoreless innings of work this postseason. Right-hander Ryan Thompson has also impressed, with a 2.53 ERA in 10 2/3 innings of work throughout the playoffs.

On offense, franchise face Ketel Marte (164 wRC+ this postseason) has excelled, while rookies Corbin Carroll (130 postseason wRC+) and Gabriel Moreno (129 wRC+) have also impressed in their first tastes of postseason action. Strong as that trio’s performance may be, however, other key bats like Tommy Pham, Christian Walker and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. have all struggled to this point in the postseason. That could give Texas the offensive edge unless some of the club’s colder bats manage to heat up during the series.

With Gallen and Eovaldi scheduled to face off later this evening for Game 1 of the World Series, which team do MLBTR readers think will take home the Commissioner’s Trophy this year? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

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The Marlins made the postseason in 2023, their first time in the playoffs of a full season since 2003. But the good news stopped there. They were quickly swept by the Phillies, then their ace announced that he underwent Tommy John surgery. This was followed by general manager Kim Ng stepping aside after disagreements with chairman Bruce Sherman.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • 1B Josh Bell can opt out of $16.5MM salary
  • OF/DH Jorge Soler can opt out of $13MM salary
  • Club holds $10.5MM club option on RHP Johnny Cueto with $2.5MM buyout
  • Clubs holds $9MM club option on RHP Matt Barnes with $2.25MM buyout ($8MM option increased to $9MM when Barnes was traded, per Associated Press)
  • Club holds $3.625MM club option on IF/OF Jon Berti with $25K buyout (Berti can be retained via arbitration even if option is declined)

2024 financial commitments (assuming Berti’s option is the only one exercised): $24.625MM
Total future commitments: $107.625MM*

* Includes $30MM owed to Yankees as part of Giancarlo Stanton deal, to be paid from 2026-2028

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Stallings, Hampson, Davis

Free Agents

The Marlins went 84-78 in 2023, just enough to squeeze into the Wild Card picture during the final weekend of the season. It would be fair to wonder whether the club was actually as good as that record would indicate. Their run differential was -57, which would be more in line with a 75-win club. Despite allowing more runs than they scored by a significant margin, they succeeded by going 33-14 in one-run games, a difficult tightrope to walk for an extended period of time.

Whether you think the club deserved their record or not, they will be challenged just to stay at that level. Sandy Alcantara required Tommy John surgery at the end of the season and will now miss the entire 2024 campaign. He wasn’t quite in his previous Cy Young-winning form in 2023, but the Marlins are nonetheless worse off without him.

There will likely be losses in the lineup as well. Each of Jorge Soler and Josh Bell have upcoming opt-outs that allow them to return to free agency. Soler’s deal originally had a $9MM salary for 2024 but he upped that to $13MM via plate appearance escalators. He hit 36 home runs this year and walked in 11.4% of his plate appearances, leading to a wRC+ of 126. Even though he’s not a strong defender, he should be able to parlay that platform into a strong multi-year deal. Whoever is in charge of the Miami front office will then have to decide whether to extend a qualifying offer to Soler, with this year’s QO likely to be around $20.5MM. If they decide to make that offer, he would be a borderline candidate to accept, but it may not be possible with the club’s financials. More on that later.

As for Bell, his season wasn’t quite as potent as Soler’s, but he finished strong. He hit .233/.318/.383 for the Guardians but then .270/.338/.480 after being traded to the Marlins. He is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer because of that trade. Given that, and the weak market for impact bats, he may be able to leave that $16.5MM on the table and find a multi-year deal of some kind.

Chairman Bruce Sherman will first have to find someone to navigate this, with general manager Kim Ng deciding not to trigger her end of a mutual option. It was reported that she did so because Sherman planned to hire a president of baseball operations to work above her, in addition to reported disagreements about some other staff decisions. Given that reporting, it’s possible he has someone in mind, but few details have been leaked about the front office search.

That makes it somewhat difficult to project what the winter plans are, but there will be some early decisions to be made, whether someone has been hired or not. The Soler QO decision is the only challenging one, however, as the others are fairly straightforward. Both Johnny Cueto and Matt Barnes had injury problems and poor results when on the field, so their options will be bought out. Jon Berti just had his second straight season of managing to produce more than 2 WAR in a utility role, so his option should be picked up. He can be retained via arbitration even if it’s not.

But after that, there will be bigger choices to be made about the club’s path forward. In terms of the financials, the 2023 Opening Day payroll of $93MM was the highest of the Sherman era, according to data at Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They are currently projected for a budget of $103MM next year, per Roster Resource. If Soler and Bell opt out and a couple members of the arb class are non-tendered, that number will drop down to around $70MM.

That will give the club some money to spend, but they will have to replace two key bats from the lineup. The Marlins scored 666 runs in 2023, better than just four clubs, while their wRC+ of 94 was better than just 10. With Soler and Bell perhaps set to become free agents, the Fish will need to find ways to add offense just to break even. Giving a qualifying offer to Soler risks tying up $20.5MM in one player when they have multiple needs to address.

In recent years, the focus has been on the Miami pitching staff and how it could be parlayed into an offensive upgrade. That may be a little trickier now that the club already made a significant move, flipping Pablo López and prospects to the Twins for Luis Arraez prior to 2023. With Alcantara’s surgery and trade of prospect Jake Eder, the rotation surplus doesn’t seem quite as robust as it did a year ago.

There is still a strong foundation there, with Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez and Braxton Garrett giving the club a strong front three, but it gets shaky after that. Trevor Rogers was excellent in 2021 but struggled in 2022 and then missed most of 2023 due to injury. Edward Cabrera has flashed a tantalizing strikeout-groundout combo at times but the walks have become a serious concern. Former first-round pick Max Meyer underwent Tommy John surgery in August of 2022 and missed all of 2023. Ryan Weathers, a former first-round pick of the Padres, has a 5.88 ERA in his major league career thus far. Sixto Sánchez was once a highly-touted prospect but has been limited to just one inning of minor league work in the past three seasons and is now out of options.

After the López trade in the last offseason, the Marlins pivoted to grab Cueto from free agency. Perhaps they find someone to trade in this group and try a similar path this winter. Cabrera is now out of options and could be plausibly flipped to a rebuilding club with the ability to be patient with his development, but that would likely leave the Marlins looking for at least one free agent starter, as well as relying on Rogers or Meyer to be healthy and effective.

If the Marlins look to add offense via free agency, catcher would be one obvious target. Jacob Stallings hit .210/.287/.290 over the past two seasons after coming over from the Pirates in a trade. Nick Fortes took over as the primary backstop in 2023. He didn’t hit much either but his defensive grades were generally strong. With Stallings about to turn 34 and set for an arbitration raise, it seems fair to expect the club to move on. Fortes is still is in his pre-arbitration years and can act as a cheap glove-first part of a catching tandem.

The free agent options aren’t amazing, but they are certainly more enticing than Stallings. Gary Sánchez had a strong second half with the Padres, hitting 19 home runs in 75 games, but should still be affordable. In 2023, he had to settle for minor league deals with the Giants and Mets. The latter selected his contract but designated him for assignment less than a week later. A waiver claim by the Padres gave him the chance to launch those 19 home runs and raise his free agent stock, but his season was ended by a wrist fracture in September, which could give some clubs pause.

Mitch Garver would be an excellent fit as a bat-first catcher, combining with Fortes behind the plate. But he hit well enough in 2023, including for the Rangers in the playoffs, that they may give him the qualifying offer. For an oft-injured catcher going into his age-33 season, it would be tough for him to walk away from over $20MM.

A player with a similar profile is Tom Murphy. He’s only been able to play 315 games dating back to the 2015 season due to various injuries, but he generally hits well when he’s in there. In 2023, he served as backup to Cal Raleigh of the Mariners, hitting eight home runs in just 47 games before a thumb sprain ended his season in August.

The Marlins could also look for an upgrade at first base, with Bell maybe opting out, Garrett Cooper having been traded and Yuli Gurriel now a free agent. Giving Bell a new contract would be one option, but the free agent market also features Rhys Hoskins, Brandon Belt, Carlos Santana and others. The club almost signed Justin Turner last winter and he is likely to end up triggering his own opt-out. But many of the available options are veterans best suited to a part-time role, also spending significant time at designated hitter. Hoskins is one of the younger ones in the group but he missed all of 2023 after tearing his ACL in the spring. Players like Rowdy Tellez and Dominic Smith could wind up non-tendered by their current clubs. Pete Alonso is the crown jewel of theoretical trade candidates but it’s hard to imagine him going to a division rival.

At the other infield positions, Luis Arraez should be back at second base and Jake Burger at third. Neither is an excellent defender but they both had strong seasons at the plate and the Marlins need their bats in the lineup. Shortstop is wide open at the moment, with Joey Wendle having struggled and now a free agent anyway. Berti and Garrett Hampson are still on the roster but better suited to utility roles than a full-time shortstop gig. Jacob Amaya struggled in his major league debut and had a subpar season in Triple-A.

Finding an everyday shortstop this winter won’t be easy. The free agent market doesn’t really have a viable option unless the White Sox turn down their option on Tim Anderson. But even then, he’s coming off a horrible season in 2023 where he had a .286 on-base percentage and just one home run. The trade market could theoretically feature names like Willy Adames, Ha-Seong Kim or Tommy Edman, but their respective clubs will undoubtedly set high asking prices given the weak free agent class.

The outfield picture looks a bit better, with Jazz Chisholm Jr. in center, flanked by Bryan De La Cruz and Jesús Sánchez. With Soler opting out, there would be room to add someone and perhaps push De La Cruz into a fourth outfielder/designated hitter role, but the club also has Avisaíl García still on the roster. His past two seasons have been disasters, with injuries and poor performance making him a sub-replacement contributor. But if the club thinks it can fit another outfielder into the mix, they could perhaps make sense for Adam Duvall, Tommy Pham or Jason Heyward.

The bullpen is losing David Robertson and Matt Moore to free agency, but they were midseason pickups anyway. Overall, the group is still strong, with four viable left-handers in the bullpen. Left-handed relief tends to always be in demand, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Marlins call around to see if they can exchange one of Tanner Scott, Andrew Nardi, A.J. Puk or Steven Okert for offensive help.

Whoever is eventually hired to make the baseball decisions in Miami will have quite a to-do list. The club’s offense was fairly tepid in 2023 and could see Bell and Soler depart in the coming weeks. The Fish could use upgrades at catcher, first base, shortstop and perhaps an outfield corner, and likely won’t have a ton of money available for those pursuits. Amid all of that, the National League East is in strong shape, as Atlanta and Philadelphia are two of the best clubs in the league. The Mets had a down year in 2023 but have the resources to bounce back quickly and the Nationals will be emerging from their rebuild eventually. Although the Marlins are fresh off a postseason berth, there are plenty of questions and we don’t currently know who will be providing the answers.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Marlins-centric chat on 10-26-23. Click here to read the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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The Astros made a seventh straight appearance in the American League Championship Series. It ended on a sour note, as consecutive home losses to their in-state rivals left them a game shy of another pennant. Houston can bring back much the same roster in hope of returning to the Fall Classic in 2024. They may have a new voice leading the clubhouse.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • RHP Hector Neris holds $8.5MM player option with $1MM buyout**

2024 financial commitments (assuming Neris opts out): $154.533MM
Total future commitments (assuming Neris opts out): $366.533MM

* Mets are responsible for $31.3MM of Verlander’s $43.333MM salary for 2024
** Player option is conditional on Neris passing end-of-season physical

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-tender candidates: None

Free Agents

The Astros claimed a third consecutive division title on the final day of the regular season. They handled the Twins to move to another ALCS. They fell just shy of the World Series, dropping their fourth home game in the ALCS against their intra-state rivals last night.

Dusty Baker was unwilling to speculate about his future in the immediate aftermath of that loss. Britt Ghiroli and Chandler Rome of the Athletic reported that the veteran skipper has been telling people both within and outside the organization that he anticipated stepping away from managing after this year. Baker won’t technically have to resign — he was on a one-year contract anyhow — but the effect would be the same. If he moves on, Houston will need to kick off a managerial search for the first time in four years.

It’s far too early to identify any kind of favorites for that (potential) opening. Bench coach Joe Espada would presumably get a long look after interviewing for various jobs elsewhere. Houston checked in on the likes of Brad Ausmus, Buck Showalter and Jeff Banister during their surprising 2020 search that ultimately landed on Baker. Much has changed in the last four seasons, of course, and it’s unclear if ownership and second-year GM Dana Brown would prioritize previous managerial experience the same way the organization had in the immediate fallout of the sign-stealing punishment.

While the coaching situation is in a state of uncertainty, the front office can keep the roster mostly intact. None of their core players are headed to free agency. Houston will see middle relievers Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek hit the market. Hector Neris could join them by declining an $8.5MM player option — assuming he passes a postseason physical, as expected — in search of another two-year deal.

Maton and Neris were solid pieces in a typically strong bullpen, which finished sixth in the majors in ERA and led MLB with a 26.3% strikeout rate. Stanek didn’t have a great 2023 campaign, although the hard-throwing righty combined for a 2.41 ERA in 123 innings between 2021-22. Their impending free agencies put some pressure on the front office to replenish the bullpen depth.

That could come by simply re-signing one or two of those pitchers. While each has a shot at a multi-year pact, none figures to land an exorbitant annual salary. If they let all three walk, they could identify a target or two in the lower tiers of free agency. Reacquiring Kendall Graveman at the deadline served as preemptive fortification of the 2024 setup core. The veteran joins Rafael Montero and Bryan Abreu as bridges to Ryan Pressly in the ninth inning.

The bullpen is light on left-handed options. That has been true for multiple seasons, though, with the Astros seemingly never placing much stock in building a relief corps they can leverage with traditional platoons. Given how effective the unit has been, they may again not care much about adding a lefty arm. If they did want to add a southpaw, someone like Andrew Chafin, Scott Alexander or Matt Moore could be available on a one-year deal.

Despite a few injuries, Houston doesn’t need to do a whole lot in the starting rotation. Justin Verlander is under contract for another season, with the Mets paying almost three-quarters of the salary to land Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford in the deadline blockbuster. Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier are locked into the second and third spots. Hunter Brown flashed big strikeout potential as a rookie. J.P. France tailed off in the second half but had a good enough rookie showing to compete for a spot at the back end.

This year was a complete loss for Lance McCullers Jr., who never made it past nagging forearm issues. He underwent a season-ending flexor tendon repair in June. The organization will have more clarity about McCullers’ status as the offseason progresses. When announcing the surgery, Dana Brown said the club envisioned the All-Star hurler returning in 2024, although he didn’t specify if McCullers is expected to be ready by Opening Day.

Luis Garcia underwent a Tommy John procedure in May. He’s unlikely to be a factor until the All-Star Break at the earliest. José Urquidy had some injury troubles of his own, missing a couple months with a shoulder strain. The righty didn’t require surgery and finished the season healthy. He had the worst numbers of his career, posting a 5.29 ERA in 63 innings after a sub-4.00 showing in each of his first four campaigns.

Perhaps the Astros are discouraged enough by Urquidy’s performance to put him on the trade market. His projected $3.5MM salary is relatively modest, so they’d find some interest. It may not be compelling enough to subtract a potential back-end arm given the uncertainties regarding Garcia and McCullers. If they deal Urquidy, they could look for a lower-variance veteran free agent in the Kyle Gibson mold to lock in a few innings.

The position player group is mostly established. Martín Maldonado and Michael Brantley are the only free agents. Multiple front office groups and coaching staffs have stuck by Maldonado despite consistently poor offense, pointing to his game-calling ability and work handling the pitching staff. It seems time for the organization to move on, however, as they have a talented younger backstop ready to take a larger role.

Yainer Diaz connected on 23 home runs while hitting .282/.308/.538 in 104 games as a rookie. The 25-year-old had been an excellent offensive player in the minors as well. Prospect evaluators have questioned how effective he’ll be defensively, but he already looks like one of the better bat-first catchers in the majors. Giving him the majority of the reps deepens the lineup.

Korey Lee was sent out in the Graveman deal, leaving the club without much catching depth beyond Diaz. Adding a veteran backup via free agency or small trade seems likely. Maldonado is a solid fit for this kind of role in isolation, although it may be tough for Houston to sell him on a true #2 job after years as their starter. If they want to go in another direction, Yasmani Grandal and Austin Hedges are impending free agents. Jacob Stallings and Christian Bethancourt could be available for a minimal trade return or non-tendered altogether.

Giving Diaz more time behind the plate clears a few at-bats in the designated hitter mix. The Astros have resisted making Yordan Alvarez a full-time DH, continuing to get him some left field reps. With Brantley heading back to free agency, they could bring in a Tommy Pham or Robbie Grossman type to play a rotational role.

Kyle Tucker is locked into right field. Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers and Mauricio Dubón are options in center field. Houston has kicked around the idea of upgrading in center field in the past, potentially moving McCormick to left while using Alvarez more heavily at DH. If they again consider that kind of move, Kevin Kiermaier and Michael A. Taylor are among the free agent options.

The infield is set. José Abreu, Jose Altuve, Jeremy Peña and Alex Bregman are locked in around the dirt. Abreu had a tough start to his three-year free agent deal, as he was one of the game’s worst players in the first two months. The veteran slugger showed signs of life in the second half and had an excellent postseason. While it wasn’t the year that Houston had envisioned, Abreu likely did enough from June onward to solidify his hold on the first base job going into 2024. Dubón and Grae Kessinger are on hand as utility options.

There doesn’t appear to be a ton of short-term payroll room for a marquee free agent pickup. If Neris opts out, Houston still has nearly $155MM in guaranteed commitments for next season. The arbitration class is projected for a combined $38.5MM salary. Aside from arguably Urquidy, everyone in that group is a key part of the roster. That puts them at roughly $193MM before considering outside additions.

That already projects as a franchise-record Opening Day outlay. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Houston has never opened the season with a player payroll higher than $188MM; they entered this year in the $180MM range.

Barring a major spending hike, Houston probably isn’t going to make many headline-grabbing acquisitions. That’s not the worst thing in the world. They’re returning all the main contributors to what was arguably a top five roster. With just modest additions to the bullpen and at catcher, they should project alongside or above the Rangers and Mariners for the lead in the AL West.

The organization has greater longer-term payroll flexibility. Houston has only $75MM on the books for the 2025 season; if Verlander (140 innings) and Pressly (50 appearances) each hit vesting provisions next year, that could tack on another $29.5MM.

That could be important this offseason, as it seems likely the front office will engage key players on extension talks. Altuve is entering the final season of his most recent five-year deal. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggested over the weekend that a new contract for the star second baseman was a priority. Agreeing to a four- or five-year pact running from his age-35 season wouldn’t be without risk but would more or less ensure he spends his entire career in Houston.

Bregman is one year from the open market as well. Tucker and Valdez have two more seasons of arbitration eligibility. Shortly after his hiring, Dana Brown went on record about his desire to get long-term deals done with much of the core. Thus far, only Javier has put pen to paper. There’s likely to be more conversations with all those players, although none of the deals would be cheap. Each should command nine figures, with Tucker and Bregman likely to beat Altuve’s $151MM extension that stands as the largest contract in franchise history.

The course of extension talks is probably more notable than any players the Astros will add this winter. There’s not going to be much turnover outside the manager’s office in the coming months. They’ll get another run with this core group. How much of this team remains after 2024 and ’25 is less certain. The front office should try to continue locking in their top players as they prepare for the second half of the decade.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held an Astros-centric chat. Click here to view the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

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The Yankees’ 82-80 record kept the club’s streak of winning seasons alive, but that was small consolation within a very disappointing season in the Bronx.  Some manner of unspecified changes seem to be coming within the organization, yet GM Brian Cashman and manager Aaron Boone look to be returning, as the Yankees will try to figure how (or how much) to build around an incoming wave of young talent.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Aaron Judge, OF: $320MM through 2031
  • Gerrit Cole, SP: $180MM through 2028 (Cole can opt out after 2024 season, but Yankees can overwrite opt-out by adding a $36MM salary for 2029)
  • Carlos Rodon, SP: $135MM through 2028
  • Giancarlo Stanton, OF/DH: $128MM through 2027 (includes $10MM buyout of $25MM club option for 2028; Marlins paying $30MM of Stanton’s salary as per the terms of December 2017 trade)
  • DJ LeMahieu, IF: $45MM through 2026
  • Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $23MM through 2024 (includes $6MM buyout of $17MM club option for 2025)
  • Tommy Kahnle, RP: $5.75MM through 2024

Other Financial Obligations

Total 2024 commitments: $161.25MM
Total future commitments: $856.75MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

2016 was the Yankees’ last season out of the playoffs, so it is perhaps instructive to look at how Cashman responded after that last setback.  Re-signing Aroldis Chapman and trading for Brian McCann were the two biggest moves of a relatively quiet (by Yankees standards) 2016-17 offseason, yet the club was able to rebound and reach Game 7 of the 2017 ALCS, as New York was revived by the “Baby Bombers” group that included Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, and Gary Sanchez.

The Yankees would undoubtedly love to see another youth movement blossom in 2024, especially with so much promising young talent already debuting in the big leagues.  Anthony Volpe spent 2023 as New York’s everyday shortstop, Oswald Peraza got a bit more playing time than in 2022, and Everson Pereira, Austin Wells, and Jasson Dominguez all made their Major League debuts.  Even with Dominguez out until roughly the All-Star break due to Tommy John surgery, there is plenty of optimism that at least a couple of these highly-touted youngsters can break out in 2024.

That said, it isn’t the Yankees’ style to take a step back for a development year.  The club finds itself in the tough spot of wanting or needing to find playing time for these rookies, yet also definitely needing to make a strong return to contention.  It doesn’t appear as though managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner is yet considering firing Cashman, but for Boone, 2024 is the last guaranteed year of his contract, so the manager could be on the hot seat unless the Yankees at least make it back into the postseason.

For all of these bigger-picture issues facing the Yankees, their offseason plan is perhaps pretty simple — improve the offense.  New York finished within the bottom seven of the league in total runs, OPS, OBP, batting average, and were persistently undone by an inability to get hits with runners in scoring position.  Losing Judge to a torn toe ligament for close to seven weeks didn’t help, but almost all of New York’s other hitters had down years.  Judge (174), Gleyber Torres (123), and the lightly-used Dominguez and Greg Allen were the only Yankees hitters to post even a 102 wRC+, as DJ LeMahieu was the next best of the group with a slightly above-average 101 total.

In the most optimistic of views, getting healthy seasons from Judge and Anthony Rizzo, some level of bounce-back from LeMahieu and Giancarlo Stanton, and that aforementioned breakout from one or two of the rookies could greatly improve the lineup without even any outside upgrades.  But, that is asking a lot from inexperienced players, and it might be that LeMahieu and Stanton won’t ever regain their prime form.  Given the lingering effects of Rizzo’s post-concussion syndrome, it also shouldn’t be assumed that Rizzo will suddenly be an All-Star again even with an offseason of recovery.

To some extent, the rookie crop can be a hedge against the veterans’ chances of a comeback season.  LeMahieu and Peraza could be involved in a timeshare at third base, LeMahieu could likewise get some first base time along with Rizzo, and Pereira’s ability to become an everyday left fielder could keep Stanton firmly in a DH-only role, which may be for the best at this stage of his career.

Could a trade clear some room?  Stanton’s salary and his no-trade clause make him among the most immovable players in baseball, so the Yankees would have to eat virtually all of his contract to accommodate a deal, even if Stanton did agree to a move.  LeMahieu is also a tough sell in trade talks, given the $45MM left on his contract and his own no-trade protection due to his 10-and-5 status.  Rizzo is perhaps the easiest of the trio to move since he is only under contract through the 2024 season, yet the Yankees would be selling low given the unknowns of his injury situation, and they’d be losing one of the few left-handed bats from their heavily righty-leaning lineup.

Trading Torres would also seem counter-productive, as he was the team’s second-best hitter in 2023.  Moving Torres would both open up a natural middle infield spot for Peraza (or Volpe, if he was moved to second base and Peraza took over shortstop) and it would save some money, as Torres is projected for a huge arbitration raise to $15.3MM.  While the Yankees generally don’t pursue extensions as a club policy, there hasn’t been any indication that Torres is in the team’s plans beyond 2024, which is the second baseman’s final year of arbitration eligibility prior to free agency.  Still, the Yankees might be content to just let Torres walk in free agency rather than trade him this winter and create another question mark in the lineup.

When it comes to discussing Torres’ arbitration number or the possibility of eating money on contracts, it is fair to remember that this is still the New York Yankees we’re talking about.  As much as Bronx fans might consider the team to be more conservative spenders than they were in the George Steinbrenner era, the Yankees still had baseball’s second-highest payroll in 2023.  While far too much of that payroll went towards non-productive players, a case could certainly be made that the Bombers could address their offensive woes by splurging on some of the offseason’s top free agent bats.

For instance, releasing Stanton and absorbing his contract entirely might be an easier pill to swallow for the organization if it created DH space for a generational talent like Shohei Ohtani.  Rather than entrust third base to LeMahieu and Peraza, the Yankees could sign one of Jeimer Candelario or Matt Chapman, which might then create more flexibility to trade Torres to alleviate an infield logjam.

In terms of a perfect fit for New York’s needs, Cody Bellinger checks a lot of boxes.  The former NL MVP is a left-handed hitter who could either play center field until Dominguez is healthy, split time at first base with Rizzo, or move into left field if both Dominguez and Rizzo are healthy, thus upgrading the lineup both offensively and defensively.  The Yankees had interest in Bellinger when he was a free agent last season, though that was back when he was seeking a one-year contract, not the multi-year megadeal he’ll surely command this winter.

If not Bellinger, Kevin Kiermaier or Jason Heyward could also fit as much less-expensive outfield options who are more than capable in center field.  If the Yankees wanted a left field-specific player on a one-year deal, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Michael Conforto, or a number of other options could emerge on the free agent or trade market.  Such an acquisition would perhaps limit Pereira to part-time duty, though Pereira did little to prove himself ready of a larger role given his .427 OPS over his first 103 plate appearances in the majors.  Acquiring a left-handed hitting outfielder would both help balance the lineup, and also create a platoon opportunity for the right-handed hitting Pereira.

As always, the Yankees figure to at least check in on virtually every top free agent due to their financial resources, and Cashman will also explore his options on the trade front.  As much as New York prizes its upcoming wave of prospects, a non-playoff year could make Cashman a little more aggressive in dealing from that depth for a win-now piece or two.  The Yankees figure to prioritize only trade targets with multiple years of control if they were to discuss Pereira, Volpe, or Peraza in any negotiations, unless a high-level player (i.e. Juan Soto) was perhaps made available.

One plus of retaining the rookies is that, in theory, their potential can at least raise the talent floor of the Yankees’ bench.  Isiah Kiner-Falefa was a usefully versatile player who could fill a lot of holes around the diamond, yet his lack of offense means that he isn’t likely to be re-signed.  IKF is one of several part-timers that don’t figure to return in 2024, with most as likely non-tender candidates within New York’s gigantic arbitration class.  Of that group, one of Jose Trevino or (probably more likely) Kyle Higashioka figure to be non-tendered, with the other remaining on hand to share time with Wells behind the plate.

Between the probable non-tenders and the free agent departures, roughly $39MM will be coming off the Yankees’ books.  It’s not a huge amount, and it’ll get smaller given the arbitration raises to Torres, Clay Holmes, and others.  This leaves New York with a projected luxury tax number that is already over the $237MM threshold, yet as noted earlier, it isn’t as if the Yankees were going to cut back spending….especially not after a non-playoff season.

After all of this focus on how the Yankees can improve their hitting, the pitching side can’t be ignored, as Gerrit Cole’s brilliance helped paper over some larger concerns within the rotation.  Cole will again be the team’s ace, but Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes will be trying to rebound from injury-plagued seasons, and Clarke Schmidt and Michael King are still both relatively untested as starters (though both have looked quite good at times).  To add depth, the Yankees could consider a reunion with Luis Severino or Frankie Montas on low-cost deals, though either pitcher might prefer for a fresh start with a club that provide a clearer path to rotation work.

Rodon’s struggles in his first year in the Bronx could make the Bombers a little wary about immediately signing another starter to a pricey long-term contract, yet this could still be an option this winter.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been heavily scouted by the Yankees and many other teams, and could be the most realistic top-tier pitching option for New York to pursue because Yamamoto is only 25 and might not even be in his prime years.  If the Yankees wanted to make a shorter-term upgrade for the front of the rotation, such arms as the Brewers’ Corbin Burnes or the Guardians’ Shane Bieber are free agents after 2024, but would naturally still some at a significant trade cost.

New York’s bullpen flew somewhat under the radar as one of the better relief units in baseball, so the Yankees could be in good shape since most of the relievers will be coming back.  Pitching coach Matt Blake and bullpen coach Mike Harkey have shown a knack for getting strong results out of a variety of pitchers (whether veterans, rookies, or unheralded acquisitions), so the Yankees don’t necessarily need any big-ticket additions to the relief corps.

Wandy Peralta posted good numbers despite some very shaky advanced metrics in 2023, and even if the Yankees pass on re-signing Peralta himself, they’ll likely seek out another southpaw to fill Peralta’s role.  Finding a replacement for King could be more difficult, as King was excellent in a multi-inning relief role last year but is going to be stretched out for a potential rotation job next year.  While King could always just return to the pen if his starting gig doesn’t work out, his value as a relief arm could be another reason for the Yankees to seek out a more seasoned starter over the winter.

For all of the ways the Yankees could be different on the field in 2024, it also seems apparent that some things need to happen behind the scenes.  Much was made earlier this month about an external audit the Yankees were planning as a top-to-bottom overview of the organization’s practices, but it remains to be seen if any changes made will translate to a return to the postseason.  Cashman’s job might not necessarily be on the line, yet the general manager is facing more public pressure than at any time during his long tenure running the Bombers’ front office.

In conjunction with this post, Mark Polishuk held a Yankees-centric chat on 10-24-23 at 1:40pm CT. Click here to read the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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Uncertainty seems to be the running theme of the Red Sox right now. Though they have World Series championships not too far in the rear-view mirror, recent seasons have seen them cut payroll and wind up in a middle ground between a rebuilding club and a frontline contender. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom was recently fired and the search to find his replacement hasn’t yet shed light on which direction the franchise is heading.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Rafael Devers, 3B: $313.5MM through 2033
  • Trevor Story, SS: $100MM through 2027 (includes buyout on 2028 club option; Story can opt-out after 2025 but club can negate that by picking up option)
  • Masataka Yoshida, OF: $72MM through 2027
  • Chris Sale, LHP: $27.5MM through 2024 (includes 2025 club option with no buyout)
  • Garrett Whitlock, RHP: $16.75MM through 2026 (includes buyout on 2027 club option; deal also has ’28 club option)
  • Kenley Jansen, RHP: $16MM through 2024
  • Justin Turner, IF: $13.4MM player option with $6.7MM buyout
  • Chris Martin, RHP: $7.5MM through 2024
  • Rob Refsnyder, OF: $1.85MM through 2024 (includes club option for 2025 with no buyout)

Option Decisions

2024 financial commitments (assuming no options are triggered): $129.1MM
Total future commitments (assuming no options are triggered): $555.1MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Urías, McGuire

Free Agents

If there were an award for the least consistent club in the majors, the Red Sox would be in the running. In the past 20 years, they have four World Series championships, more than any other team. But they have also finished last in the American League East six times in that stretch, including each of the two most recent campaigns.

As mentioned up top, the recent skid cost Bloom his job, which means the first order of business is to figure out who makes the decisions now. Various high-profile names have taken themselves out of the running, such as Mike Hazen, Kim Ng, Jon Daniels, James Click, Michael Hill, Derek Falvey, Sam Fuld and Brandon Gomes. Most of those executives have other commitments that would make it hard for them to consider a move to Boston, but it’s also been suggested that the appeal of the job might not be very high.

The higher-ups in Boston have given very short leashes to their executives recently. Ben Cherington was put in charge in October of 2011 but was replaced as the club’s baseball decision maker by Dave Dombrowski in August of 2015, despite the fact that the club had won the World Series in 2013. Dombrowski was then dismissed in 2019, even though he also brought a title to Boston the year prior, getting replaced by Bloom. With Bloom now out the door as well, it’s been quite a while since anyone has even lasted five years, despite the club’s many successes. It has also been suggested that the new hire won’t have much autonomy, with Álex Cora seemingly entrenched as manager and several other important jobs already filled.

It would be understandable if the gig weren’t viewed by everyone as a dream job, but there are only 30 of these to go around and there is still plenty of interest. Gabe Kapler, Craig Breslow, Thad Levine, Neal Huntington, Eddie Romero and Paul Groopman have been publicly reported to have been interviewed and it’s possible there are others who have sat down for a chat without it being leaked.

Once a hire is made, there will perhaps be more clarity on how the franchise envisions itself moving forward. But regardless of who eventually gets chosen, they will undoubtedly face challenges in improving the club’s chances going forward. The American League East doesn’t have weak spots, with each of the Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays having made the playoffs in 2023. The Yankees were bit by the injury bug and finished fourth but they will certainly be aggressive in the hopes of putting this season behind them.

Whether a hire has been made by the start of the offseason, the front office will have some formalities to attend to. Both Corey Kluber and Joely Rodríguez are sure to have their options declined after injury-marred seasons in 2023. Justin Turner figures to opt out after another strong season at the plate. $13.4MM is a strong salary for a player his age but the $6.7MM buyout means he only needs to find another $6.7MM in free agency in order to break even. The Sox will miss his bat but will likely need the designated hitter spot for other guys.

How aggressive the Sox will be for 2024 is an open question and likely won’t be answered until the front office business is complete. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the club’s payroll was one of the top five in the league for much of the century but they’ve dropped down since, settling at 12th place in 2023. Perhaps they will sign off on more spending after having reset their luxury tax status this year, but it also wouldn’t be a shock for a new exec to take a year to slow-play things and evaluate the franchise, an approach that is common.

When factoring in estimated arbitration salaries, Roster Resource pegs the club’s 2024 payroll around $167MM and their competitive balance tax figure at $187MM. Non-tendering depth infielder Luis Urías would knock those numbers down a few million, but the club isn’t too far from the $181MM payroll they had this year. They have a bit more room on the CBT side of things, with next year’s base threshold at $237MM, but it’s unclear if the club plans to spend up to or over that line.

The roster has its share of uncertainty, particularly on the pitching side of things. Chris Sale is coming off a somewhat encouraging season in 2023, as his 102 2/3 innings and 20 starts were more than he threw over 2020-2022 combined. But the results weren’t to his previous levels, with a 4.30 earned run average on the year. Perhaps he can fare better next year when he will be further from his injury struggles, but he will also turn 35 in March.

Nick Pivetta posted an ERA of 6.30 in his first eight starts and got bounced to the bullpen in May. He was able to get things back on track from there, with an ERA of 3.16 the rest of the way, finishing back in the rotation with a 4.04 ERA on the year overall. Brayan Bello made 13 appearances in 2022 but got a fuller audition in 2023, which resulted in some solid but not outstanding results. He registered a 4.24 ERA with a tepid 19.8% strikeout rate, though he limited walks and got heavy doses of ground balls.

Kutter Crawford had a 4.04 ERA this year with good peripherals, though it’s unclear if that’s sustainable since he’s never been a highly-touted prospect. Tanner Houck has shown some potential, but injuries have continually kept him in the range of 100-120 innings. The same is largely true for Garrett Whitlock, though he hasn’t even reached 100 frames since 2018.

Having six semi-plausible starting pitchers isn’t a terrible place to be in, but there isn’t much locked in, especially in the long-term. Sale is entering the final guaranteed year of his deal and Pivetta only has one arbitration season remaining. It wouldn’t be a shock to see the Sox add someone here, though it might not be a top-of-the-market name, depending on where they plan to set payroll. Pitchers like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Aaron Nola are destined for nine-figure contracts, but the Sox could perhaps set their sights on arms like Sonny Gray or old friend Eduardo Rodriguez. Beyond them are veteran bounceback candidates like Marcus Stroman, Jack Flaherty or Lucas Giolito.

The bullpen has a bit more clarity, with veterans Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin each having another year remaining on their respective deals. Josh Winckowski, John Schreiber and Brennan Bernardino have shown promise to varying degrees and should have the inside track for jobs on next year’s club. That still leaves plenty of room for a free agent addition, though any investment here could be on the modest side with Jansen and Martin already giving the club strong high-leverage options. On the other hand, if the new front office decides to make 2024 a sort of evaluation year, maybe Jansen or Martin find themselves on the trade block.

On the position player side of things, the catcher position is probably the most wide open. The Sox gave plenty of runway for Connor Wong and Reese McGuire in 2023, though neither of them took firm hold of the job. They each posted a matching wRC+ of 78 with so-so defensive grades. Wong was great with the running game but poor in terms of blocking and framing, whereas McGuire was generally middling across the board.

Investing in a veteran backstop and non-tendering McGuire would be sensible, though the free agent options aren’t terribly exciting. Mitch Garver and Tom Murphy have strong bats but generally struggle to stay healthy. Austin Hedges and Martín Maldonado have strong reputations as defenders and pitching staff leaders but they’re both poor hitters. Gary Sánchez is arguably the best of the bunch but his half season in San Diego was strong enough that he may have played himself into a two-year deal. The trade route could feature unproven options like Joey Bart or Iván Herrera.

The infield is half set, with Rafael Devers having third base spoken for. He will likely require a move to first base at some point since his defense isn’t strong at the hot corner, but his offense continues to be excellent and he’s under contract for another decade. Whenever it’s time to move over to first, it could be a bit tricky since Triston Casas seems to have established himself over there. He has 29 home runs in his first 159 major league games and has walked at a 14.9% clip, but his glovework isn’t strong either, perhaps leading him and Devers to someday co-exist via the designated hitter slot. But for the time being, it seems fair to expect them to stay on opposite corners.

The middle infield is far more up-in-the-air, with the investment in Trevor Story yet to pay dividends. He hit at a league-average level in 2022 and then required elbow surgery in the winter, not returning to the big leagues until August of 2023. The results were grim, as he struck out in 32.7% of his plate appearances and didn’t do much impact when he put the ball in play. His wRC+ of 48 was one of the 10 worst in the majors, minimum 160 plate appearances, with mostly catchers and bench players around him on that list. The club has little choice but to hope that Story gets back on track, given the four years left on his deal.

As for his double play partner, that’s also a question. The club has taken chances on a number of light-hitting utility guys of late, with the list including Urías, Yu Chang, Pablo Reyes, Hoy Park and Christian Arroyo. Of that group, only Reyes and Urías remain. The latter seems likely to be non-tendered after a rough season and Reyes is best suited for a bench/depth role. David Hamilton and Enmanuel Valdéz are present as optionable depth options.

The club could certainly pursue middle infield help but the options there aren’t great either. Whit Merrifield, Adam Frazier and Amed Rosario are arguably better second basemen than what the Sox currently have in-house, but each are coming off fairly unremarkable seasons.

In the outfield, Jarren Duran had a breakout season in 2023, with a .346 on-base percentage and 24 stolen bases. Even though his season was ended by toe surgery, he should be pencilled into the center field spot, at least as the strong side of a platoon. Alex Verdugo had another passable season, with offense around league average and strong defense. He figures to be in right field, though he also stands out as a possible trade candidate in his final arbitration season with a projected salary of $9.2MM. Masataka Yoshida showed some encouraging signs with his contact-heavy approach resulting in a 109 wRC+ in his first MLB season. The defense was poor, as was expected, though perhaps the Sox are comfortable using their small left field and the DH spot to diminish the effects of his glovework. Long-term, it’s not ideal to have three poor defenders battling for the DH position in Yoshida, Devers and Casas, but it’s semi-workable for now. Rob Refsnyder will be in the outfield mix as a short-side platoon guy.

Younger options could be pushing for time in that outfield mix this year, as each of Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela got into 28 big league games this year. Abreu fared better in those, but it’s too small of a sample to draw broad conclusions from. Roman Anthony is considered by some to be a Top 100 talent and has reached Double-A, perhaps putting a 2024 debut on the table. Miguel Bleis is also a highly-regarded prospect but is further away.

There may be glimmers of hope for the farm to help out at other positions as well, with catcher Kyle Teel having just been selected 14th overall in the most recent draft. Shortstop Marcelo Mayer is a consensus Top 100 guy and second baseman Nick Yorke has been on some of those lists as well. Each of those three got to Double-A in 2023 and won’t be too far from the majors.

Despite all the uncertainty, there are many things to like about this Boston club. They just went 78-84 in the toughest division in the league, with a run differential of -4. It would only take modest improvements to get them into contention for a playoff spot.

Perhaps a new hire would like to take a year to get more looks at young players like Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony, Teel, Mayer and Yorke. There’s plenty of money coming off the books after 2024, with Sale, Jansen, Martin, Pivetta and Verdugo all potential free agents. Maybe some of those guys end up getting moved this winter, freeing up roster space for younger guys. They need help at catcher and in the middle infield, but there aren’t obvious solutions available in free agency and the Sox have possible long-term solutions in the pipeline.

All things considered, the ship isn’t in terrible shape. But as of right now, it’s unclear who is steering it, which direction they’re going or how fast they’ll be allowed to head there. There’s plenty of fog on the horizon but perhaps things will clear up soon.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Red Sox-centric chat on 10-24-23. Click here to read the transcript.

Big Hype Prospects: Eder, Herz, Rincones, Montgomery, Schwartz

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After another week of action, a spate of strikeouts has cost Jakob Marsee his spot atop the hitter leaderboards. James Triantos has slipped in above him. Top pitcher status is harder to judge. Braden Nett, Davis Daniel, Ricky Tiedemann, and Jackson Jobe all have a case.
Let’s see who else merits a look.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jake Eder, 25, SP, CWS
(A/AA) 56.2 IP, 11.1 K/9, 5.7 BB/9, 6.99 ERA

A southpaw pitching prospect who was once as blue chip as they come, Eder hasn’t recovered well from Tommy John surgery. While his elbow is healthy, he’s lost velocity, movement, and command since his prospect peak. The White Sox dealt Jake Burger for Eder at the trade deadline and likely wish they could ctrl-z that decision. Following the swap, Eder coughed up an 11.42 ERA in five starts for the Sox Double-A affiliate.

On a positive note, Eder has a 3.24 ERA in 8.1 AFL innings – good for ninth-best in the league. He’s coughed up a pair of home runs to go with eight walks and 10 strikeouts. The book isn’t closed on Eder, but he needs to take an active role in writing the next chapter. The current chapter is titled TINSTAAPP.

DJ Herz, 22, SP/RP, WSH
(AA) 94.1 IP, 12.7 K/9, 5.4 BB/9, 4.01 ERA

Another southpaw traded at the deadline, Herz is widely seen as a future reliever due to a below-average fastball and breaking ball. His command is also poor. Where he stands out is his changeup. It’s a carrying pitch that should yield a Major League future. Herz continues to work as a starter in the AFL where he’s posted 18 strikeouts in 11 innings. Alas, his command woes (six walks) continue to limit his ability to pitch deep into outings. We await to see if his stuff plays up out of the bullpen.

Gabriel Rincones Jr., 22, OF, PHI
(A/A+) 533 PA, 15 HR, 32 SB, .248/.351/.427

A third-rounder in the 2022 draft, Rincones Jr. is best known for high-caliber exit velocities. He’s expected to wind up at first base due to suspect corner outfield defense and poor speed. Despite a lack of wheels, Rincones has shown aptitude on the bases – a trait that can sometimes portend a gamer’s mentality. His bat should carry him to the Majors without any major adjustments. At the very highest levels, he might prove too susceptible to breaking stuff. With players of this profile, breaking ball recognition is usually the difference between a big leaguer and a Quad-A guy. Rincones is among the top 10 AFL hitters with a .327/.462/.577 triple-slash.

Benny Montgomery, 21, OF, COL
(A+) 497 PA, 10 HR, 18 SB, .251/.336/.370

A former eighth-overall pick, Montgomery has seen his prospect status rapidly erode since draft day. Speed remains his best trait, though he also demonstrates above-average power. His contact is held back by funky mechanics. Most organizations – the Rockies among them – aren’t adept at developing players with a non-standard approach. They’re often left to sink or swim on their own. Encouragingly, Montgomery has cut down on his swinging strike rate at every level. He needs to continue that growth while doing something about the extreme 62.6 percent ground ball rate he posted this season. He also needs to improve his outfield defense where his double-plus speed helps him to recover from poor jumps and routes. He’s slashing .373/.468/.510 in the AFL, albeit with 17 strikeouts in 60 plate appearances.

JT Schwartz, 23, 1B, NYM
(AA) 277 PA, 4 HR, 4 SB, .302/.383/.437

Schwartz doesn’t have much of a shot with the Mets. He’s likely in the AFL to showcase him in front of other teams. He has the look of a future big leaguer – the sort who helps rebuilding teams trudge through another season. While Schwartz has the physical size to hit for power, his current approach is built around batting average and OBP. He’d draw more attention in the pre-Moneyball era. In 45 plate appearances, he has six doubles and two home runs along with a 1.011 OPS.

Three More

Liam Hicks, TEX (24): Hicks has low-key paced the league on the hitting side including a six-hit day. Despite the heady results, he’s not particularly impactful with the bat. His catching is of the third-string variety – he’s struggled to control the running game throughout his entire career. Other aspects of his defense draw critiques. Without an obvious position, Hicks looks like a ‘tweener whose plus discipline and contact rate could hide his shortcomings.

Kyle Manzardo, CLE (23): Manzardo, who we’ve already discussed ad nauseam in past episodes, leads the league with five home runs and 11 extra base hits. The power adjustment he showed upon joining the Guardians remains in evidence.

Oliver Dunn, PHI (26): A Rule 5-eligible second baseman, Dunn is making a case for consideration. He popped 21 home runs with 16 steals this summer while showing plus plate discipline. He’s strikeout-prone, but the power breakout renders that more forgivable. In 46 AFL plate appearances, he’s swiped nine bases to go with a 1.076 OPS, three doubles, three triples, and a dinger.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

MLBTR Poll: Andrew Heaney’s Opt-Out

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The 2022-23 offseason saw several mid-tier free agents sign similar two-year contracts, each of which featured an opt-out after the 2023 campaign. Josh Bell and Michael Conforto’s deals with the Guardians and Giants are two examples on the position player side of things, but the majority of these deals were offered to starting pitchers, such as Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling in San Francisco. Left-hander Drew Smyly and right-hander Seth Lugo also signed similar deals with the Cubs and Padres, respectively, that allowed them to return to the open market this offseason if they so chose.

Many of those option decisions are fairly clear-cut, but one decision stands out as particularly intriguing: that of Rangers lefty Andrew Heaney, who can opt-out of the final year of his contract to test the open market again. Heaney signed in Texas last offseason on the heels of a brilliant season with the Dodgers where he was limited to just 72 2/3 innings by injury. When on the field, however, Heaney was nothing short of excellent with a 3.10 ERA, 35.5% strikeout rate, and 3.75 FIP in 16 appearances, including 14 starts.

While Heaney managed to stay healthy in 2023, his results took a turn for the worse. His strikeout rate plummeted to 23.6% while his walk rate climbed from 6.1% last year to 9.4% this season. Those slips in Heaney’s peripheral numbers saw him post a 4.15 ERA that was just above league average (95 ERA-) with a 4.66 FIP that was a touch worse than league average (106 FIP-). That being said, Heaney made 34 appearances in 2023 with 28 starts, a noteworthy display of durability for a player who had cracked 130 innings of work in a season just once in his career entering 2023.

Though Heaney managed to post the second-highest innings total of his career this year, his 147 1/3 innings pitched this season fell just shy of the 150 inning threshold at which point his 2024 salary would have escalated from $13MM to $20MM. Had Heaney reached the 150-inning threshold to escalate his option, opting in would have been an easy choice after he guaranteed himself just $25MM last offseason despite strong results with the Dodgers.

That base $13MM figure, however, presents a more interesting conundrum. Looking at last year’s free agent class, 35 starting pitchers signed big league deals in free agency last offseason. Among them, 21 signed for $13MM or more, including players coming off similarly league average seasons like Manaea, Lugo, Jordan Lyles and Noah Syndergaard. Like Lugo, Heaney would be entering free agency ahead of his age-33 season, while Syndergaard entered the open market with a similarly checkered injury history. Syndergaard received a one-year, $13MM deal from the Dodgers last offseason, while Lugo’s two-year pact guaranteed him $15MM.

Ultimately, it seems very reasonable to expect Heaney to be able to exceed his 2024 salary with the Rangers on the open market in terms of total guarantee on a multi-year pact, though it seems somewhat unlikely that he’d be able to garner that much in terms of AAV without accepting another short-term deal like the one he signed last offseason. If Heaney simply opts in, he could return to the Rangers and hope for another healthy season with stronger results in 2024, setting him up for a much more substantial payday next offseason. On the other hand, if Heaney’s health fails him again as it has in seasons’ past, he could find a much less robust market for his services next offseason as he could potentially be marketing his age-34 campaign coming off another injury-marred season.

Where do MLBTR readers land on the matter? If you were in Heaney’s shoes, would you opt in to the final year of the deal in Texas in hopes of a stronger platform season next year? Or would you return to the open market in search of a larger total guarantee? Have your say in the poll below.

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