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Trade Candidate: Harold Ramirez

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As is frequently the case for the Rays this time of year, the club has a sizable class of arbitration-eligible players to sort through this offseason: with 16 players eligible for arbitration this winter, only the Yankees have more. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects that group of players to cost a combined $46.3MM in 2024 if all 16 of them are retained. That could prove to be an untenable situation for the Rays, as RosterResource estimates the club’s projected 2024 payroll to be $130MM, an increase of more than $50MM over this year’s $79MM budget.

While the club has recently indicated that it would be open to increasing payroll next season, it’s unclear to what level an increase would be. Even a substantial increase in payroll could leave the club looking to shave $20MM or more off of its payroll, to say nothing of any potential external additions the club could look into making as they aim to build on a 99-win season in 2024. Given these realities, it seems likely that the Rays will at least shop around some of the players from their deep pool of arbitration-level talent this offseason.

Of Tampa’s group of arbitration talent, just four players are projected to make more than $3MM next year: infielder Isaac Paredes, who is still just 24 years old and enjoyed a breakout season in 2023; right-hander Aaron Civale, the steady mid-rotation arm the club dealt top first base prospect Kyle Manzardo to acquire this past summer; outfielder Randy Arozarena, a face of the franchise and former Rookie of the Year who made his first All Star appearance in 2023; and Harold Ramirez, a right-handed slugger the club acquired in a minor deal with the Cubs prior to the 2022 season who splits time between DH, first base, and the outfield corners.

Among that group of four, it seems wildly unlikely that the club would deal Civale after winning the bidding for his services just three months ago. Given his youth, positional versatility, and strong 2023 campaign, it seems more likely that the club would rather retain Paredes as a member of the club’s core rather than trade him away just as he enters his prime years.

While Arozarena may be the most expensive of the group by far with a $9MM projected salary in 2024, the 28-year-old outfielder is under team control through the end of the 2026 season and provides consistency to the Rays lineup. He’s made at least 600 trips to the plate, with a wRC+ of 120 or better, 20 home runs or more, and 20 stolen bases or more in each of the past three seasons. That consistency, power and speed makes Arozarena a key piece for the Rays going forward, to say nothing of his status as one of the most recognizable players on the team.

That leaves Ramirez, who has contributed to the Rays in a big way over the past two seasons. In 869 trips to the plate with the club over the past two seasons, Ramirez has slashed an impressive .306/.348/.432 with a 17.4% strikeout rate, good for a wRC+ of 123. Good as that production is, it’s worth noting Ramirez carries a hefty platoon split; while he was roughly league average against right-handers with a .281/.329/.420 slash line in 310 trips to the plate against them this year, he absolutely crushed lefties to the tune of a .387/.411/.555 slash line in 124 trips to the plate. His career splits are roughly similar, with a .719 OPS against righties and an .816 OPS against southpaws.

Valuable as a lefty-mashing corner bat can be, the Rays are fortunate to be well-stocked in terms of DH and corner options. Yandy Diaz has locked down the first base spot with star-level production the past two seasons, while slugger Luke Raley made a strong impression during his first run of significant playing time this year, slashing .249/.333/.490 with 19 home runs in just 406 trips to the plate while covering first base, DH, and all three outfield spots. This also doesn’t consider young infield prospect Jonathan Aranda, who slashed .230/.340/.368 in 103 plate appearances with the big league club this year and could play his way into a bigger role next season.

Additionally, each of those options has more team control remaining than Ramirez. While the 29-year-old will be a free agent following the 2025 season, Diaz is under control through 2026, Raley through 2028, while Aranda has yet to accrue a full season of service time in the big leagues. Given the club’s bountiful options at the position and Ramirez’s relative lack of team control, he could be the perfect trade candidate for a Rays team interested in lowering payroll to make other additions or even simply in leveraging a valuable asset from a clear area of depth.

In terms of potential suitors, there are several teams that could conceivably be interested in Ramirez’s services. The Brewers and Cubs both have uncertain first base situations headed into 2024, with Rowdy Tellez looking like a potential non-tender candidate and Matt Mervis having struggled through his first cup of coffee in the majors earlier this year. The Cubs, of course, are the club the Rays acquired Ramirez from prior to his breakout in the spring of 2022.

Meanwhile, the Padres could look to add a right-handed complement to Matt Carpenter at DH, with Ramirez as a strong option to fill the role the club hoped Nelson Cruz could fill in 2023. The Diamondbacks and Braves could also find themselves in search of a bat like Ramirez this offseason, in the event Tommy Pham and Eddie Rosario depart the club this offseason. In truth, there’s few aspiring contenders that couldn’t make use of a lefty-mashing corner bat with two seasons of team control remaining, giving the Rays plenty of potential paths in the event they do pursue a trade of the 29-year-old.

Two Starters Who Buoyed The Blue Jays In 2023

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The 2023 season was something of a disappointment in Toronto, as the club once again was swept out of the AL Wild Card series after a third place finish in the AL East. As the club spent 2023 treading water, several key players such as star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (whose struggles MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk discussed last month), catcher Alejandro Kirk, and veteran outfielder George Springer all took significant steps back this year. Meanwhile, the pitching side of the roster faced its own challenges. Right-hander Ross Stripling departed via free agency last offseason for San Francisco and while veteran right-hander Chris Bassitt was a capable replacement this year, 2022 AL Cy Young finalist Alek Manoah was not replaced so easily. Manoah, 25, posted a disastrous 2023 season that saw him sport a 5.87 ERA and 6.02 FIP across 19 starts.

With all the shortcomings of the 2023 squad in Toronto, it might seem somewhat surprising that the club managed to post essentially the same season as they did last year. Fortunately, the Blue Jays managed to turn their starting rotation into a considerable strength this year, even as their best arm from last season was pulled from the starting five due to ineffectiveness. While a solid, 11-start return from veteran lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu and a typically excellent campaign from ace righty Kevin Gausman both were major assets, the steps forward taken by right-hander Jose Berrios and left-hander Yusei Kikuchi did the most to return Toronto to contention in 2023, and provide reason for optimism when looking ahead to 2024.

Both pitchers had their first full seasons in Toronto in 2022: Berrios was acquired at the 2021 trade deadline, while the club signed Kikuchi to a three-year deal in free agency ahead of the 2022 campaign. That season was a difficult one for both players, as each posted an ERA north of 5.00 and the worst full-season fWAR totals of their careers. With Kikuchi under contract for another two seasons and Berrios signed on through 2028, both signings were looking nothing short of disastrous for the Blue Jays after their first year.

Fortunately, however, both pitchers were able to turn things around in 2023, allowing Toronto to absorb the loss of Manoah’s elite production much more easily. Berrios saw his 5.23 ERA in 172 innings last year drop to a much more palatable 3.65 figure in 189 1/3 frames. While he was 26% worse than league average last year by measure of ERA+, he managed to post a season that was actually 16% better than league average by that same metric this season. Kikuchi, meanwhile, saw nearly as drastic an improvement as his similar 5.19 ERA (74 ERA+) improved to a far more respectable 3.86 (110 ERA+) figure. What’s more, after making 12 of his 32 appearances out of the bullpen in 2022, Kikuchi made 32 starts in 2023, allowing his innings total to skyrocket from 100 2/3 to 167 2/3.

As good as those seasons were, of course, they weren’t enough to get the Jays over the hump in 2023. Looking ahead to 2024, the question for GM Ross Atkins and the rest of the front office is a simple one: Just how sustainable were the improvements for their mid-rotation arms? Fortunately for the fans in Toronto, the improvement both players found in 2023 is largely backed up by more advanced metrics.

After striking out just 19.8% of batters faced in 2022, Berrios improved that figure to 23.5% this year while maintaining a low 6.6% walk rate. Both of those numbers are slightly better than his career averages of 23.2% and 7.1%, respectively, which helps lend credence to the idea that Berrios’s return to form could be sustainable. Berrios saw improvements in other areas, too, as his BABIP dropped from .328 in 2022 to just .289 in 2023, while his strand rate rose from 70.9% to 76.4%.

BABIP and strand rate are both typically regarded as fluky year-to-year stats, giving them little value when predicting future performance in such small sample sizes. In this case, however, they back up that Berrios’s 2022 campaign during which he led the league in both earned runs and hits allowed may have simply been an outlier: Berrios’s 2023 BABIP is almost identical to his career .290 mark entering the 2022 campaign. What’s more, advanced metrics such as SIERA indicate that not only were Berrios’s 2022 and 2023 seasons similar to each other in terms of underlying performance, but they were similar to his body of work throughout his entire career. Berrios posting a 4.13 SIERA in 2022 and a 4.08 SIERA this season. While the 2023 figure is a few points better, both are in the same ballpark as his 4.04 SIERA in seven seasons since becoming a major league regular.

While Berrios’s 2023 campaign indicates that 2022 was merely an aberration in what has otherwise been a consistent career as a mid-rotation arm, Kikuchi’s season this year seems to indicate a significant step forward. Among 140 pitchers with at least 100 innings of work in the majors during 2022, Kikuchi’s 5.62 FIP ranked in the bottom three, only better than Jonathan Heasley and Josiah Gray. While Kikuchi struck out an impressive 27.3% of batters faced, he walked a whopping 12.8% of batters faced. What’s worse, those free baserunners Kikuchi offered opposing teams often found themselves scoring on home runs thanks to Kikuchi’s fly balls leaving the year for home runs at an astronomical 23.7% rate that was by far the highest in the majors.

Fortunately, Kikuchi’s command and control issues improved considerably this year, even as his strikeout rate ticked down slightly to 25.9%. He nearly halved his walk rate in 2023, cutting his free passes down to a 6.9% rate that was actually in the 73rd percentile among all qualified pitchers, per Statcast. Kikuchi also managed to make improvements regarding the long ball, though they weren’t as drastic as his cut down on walks. After putting up the league’s worst barrel rate of 14.8% in 2022, Kikuchi managed to cut that figure to 9% this season, good for the 29th percentile among all qualified major leaguers.

While that’s still below average, Kikuchi’s more reasonable 15.3% home run rate allowed him to post a career year in 2023; this year was the first time the 32-year-old managed to post an above average season by both ERA- (8% better than league average) and FIP- (4% better than league average). SIERA, meanwhile, was actually even more bullish on Kikuchi than Berrios this year, as the lefty posted a 3.86 figure that put him in the same range as quality arms like Logan Gilbert and Sonny Gray while outperforming the likes of Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell.

With Berrios once again looking like the quality mid-rotation arm he appeared to be throughout his career in Minnesota and Kikuchi having joined him at a similar status in 2023, the Blue Jays look to be extremely well set up headed into 2024 with a front four of Gausman, Berrios, Kikuchi, and Bassitt in the starting rotation. That should allow them to be aggressive in looking to revamp the club’s offense as they attempt to return to the postseason in 2024 and win their first playoff game since 2016.

Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent

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Since we just looked at what teams would stand to receive in draft compensation if they lost a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer, now it’s time to explore what each team would have to give up in order to sign a QO-rejecting free agent.

To recap the mechanics: if a free agent has played the entire 2023 season with a team and he has never received a qualifying offer in the past, he is eligible to be issued a QO within five days of the end of the World Series.  The qualifying offer is a one-year deal worth the average of the salaries of the top 125 highest-paid players in the majors, and this winter, the QO is reportedly worth around $20.5MM.  An eligible free agent can simply accept the QO and thus avoid free agency entirely, but if he rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive some draft-pick compensation if the free agent signs elsewhere.  This only relates to qualified free agents from other teams, as a club can re-sign its own qualified free agents with no penalty.

Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will receive should one of their qualified free agents indeed head to another club…

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays

Should one of these clubs sign a qualified free agent, they will have to give up their third-highest selection in the 2024 draft.  Since most of these smaller-market teams are part of the Competitive Balance bonus rounds of the draft, their third-highest pick likely won’t mean their third-round pick, and the situation could be further complicated if any of the teams trade from their CBR picks (the Competitive Balance selections are the only draft picks eligible to be traded).

The Mariners, Orioles, Rays, and Reds stand out as at least somewhat realistic candidates to sign a QO-rejecting free agent this winter.  Seattle is expected to make some level of pursuit of the biggest free agent of all in Shohei Ohtani, while the Orioles and Reds might feel the time is right to augment their young core with a bigger name, likely a pitcher.  Tampa Bay might be willing to stretch its usual payroll standards a bit this winter, though it remains to be seen if the Rays would splurge on a major free agent.

Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Nationals, Astros, White Sox, Red Sox

For signing a qualified free agent, these teams would have to surrender their second-highest pick of the 2023 draft, and also $500K from their bonus pool during the next international signing period.

Many of these clubs could be prominent players in free agency, perhaps further emboldened by their relatively lesser draft penalty.  St. Louis is aiming to acquire at least three starting pitchers, the Giants are hoping to finally land a big name after their failed pursuits of Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa last winter, the Cubs could be looking to make a big splash to replace Cody Bellinger (if Bellinger can’t be re-signed at all), and the Red Sox might be looking to return to contention in a big way once their new front office leader is hired.

The Team In Limbo: Angels

As noted in the last post, it won’t be known until December (when the luxury tax numbers are officially calculated by the league) whether or not the Angels have exceeded the $233MM CBT threshold.  While this most specifically relates to the compensation Los Angeles may receive if Ohtani signs elsewhere, it also impacts what the Halos would have to give up if they wanted to add another qualified free agent.

If the Angels ducked under the CBT line, they’ll be in the previous group.  But, if the league’s calculations determine that the Angels were in excess of the tax threshold, they’ll be included with the other…

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Padres, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Rangers, Blue Jays, Yankees

As one would expect, these teams face the stiffest penalties.  For signing a QO-rejecting free agent, these clubs would have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as two draft picks — their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2024 draft.

Ohtani’s name looms large in this category, as several of these clubs might not proceed with major offseason business until they know one way or the other if they can land the two-way superstar.  Conversely, a team that isn’t willing to give out the record-setting contract it will likely take to land Ohtani could instead more aggressively pursue some relatively less expensive qualified free agents, looking to land a player while some other suitors are occupied.  Of course, the higher penalty could also mean that some tax-payor teams instead look for upgrades on the trade market, or at some free agents (i.e. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery, Jeimer Candelario, Eduardo Rodriguez) who aren’t eligible for the qualifying offer.

Should a club sign more than one qualified free agent, they will have to additionally forfeit their next-highest draft pick.  For signing two QO-rejecting free agents, the revenue-sharing group would have to give up their third- and fourth-highest picks in the 2024 draft.  The teams who didn’t exceed the CBT or receive revenue-sharing funds would have to give up their second- and third-highest picks, as well as $500K more of their international bonus pool.  The luxury tax payors would face the heftier penalty of losing four draft picks — their second, third, fifth, and sixth-highest selections.

Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Receive For Losing A Qualified Free Agent

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The qualifying offer is one of the key mechanisms of free agent season, as teams have until five days after the end of the World Series to decide whether or not to issue the one-year contract (this winter reportedly worth around $20.5MM) to eligible free agents.  If a player has played with his team throughout the entire 2023 season and hasn’t received a QO in the past, he is eligible to be issued a qualifying offer, and thus the player can opt to accept the QO and forego free agency altogether.

If the player rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive some draft-pick compensation if the free agent signs elsewhere.  Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will receive should one of their qualified free agents indeed head to another club…

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays

If any of these teams has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for more than $50MM in guaranteed money, the compensatory pick falls after the first round of the draft.  If a team has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for less than $50MM guaranteed, the compensatory pick would come between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round.  In the 2023 draft, these compensation picks were the 68th, 69th, and 70th overall selections.

Of the pending free agents on these teams’ rosters, the Twins’ Sonny Gray is the most clear-cut candidate to receive a qualifying offer.  Jorge Soler is expected to opt out of the final year of his contract with the Marlins, and Miami is likely to issue him a qualifying offer if Soler does indeed hit the open market again.  The Mariners’ Teoscar Hernandez is also a good QO candidate, even though the outfielder is coming off a relative down year and might conceivably choose to just take the $20.5MM payday in the hopes of a producing a better platform season in advance of the 2024-25 free agent class.  On the other hand, since this offseason’s market is thin on position players, Hernandez and his representatives might feel this is the better time to reject a QO and pursue a lucrative multi-year deal.

Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Nationals, Astros, White Sox, Red Sox

For these teams, the compensatory pick for losing a qualified free agent would also fall between CBR-B and the start of the third round (regardless of whether the player signed for more or less than $50MM).  Cody Bellinger is a lock to receive and reject the Cubs’ qualifying offer, as the outfielder/first baseman will be looking to cash in after his big bounce-back season in 2023.  Aside from Bellinger, none of the other pending free agents for these teams look like plausible QO candidates.

The Team In Limbo: Angels

It should be noted that these lists of teams and their CBT status won’t be officially finalized until December.  Usually, it isn’t difficult to figure out which teams surpass the $233MM tax threshold, and sites like Roster Resource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts do excellent work in calculating luxury tax estimates over the course of a season.  However, this winter w have a relatively rare case of a team whose status won’t be known until December, as the Angels are by all accounts right on the borderline of the $233MM figure.

The Angels’ waiver wire purge in late August moved some salary off the books, but according to some reports at the start of September, the Halos remained slightly over the $233MM mark.  Cot’s has the Angels just over the line at an estimated $236MM CBT number, while Roster Resource’s projection has the Angels avoiding a tax penalty with a $228.7MM CBT number.

Given how the Angels have the offseason’s most prominent free agent in Shohei Ohtani, it is no small matter for the club to know exactly what draft compensation they might receive should Ohtani (after obviously rejecting the QO) depart for another team.  While Ohtani re-signing in Anaheim is the best-case scenario, the next best option would be a compensatory pick in the 68-70 range for the Angels in next year’s draft…

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Padres, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Rangers, Blue Jays, Yankees

…and the least palatable option would be the lesser compensation should the Angels indeed end up over the CBT line.  If a team exceeds the luxury tax, they still receive a pick if a qualified free agent signed elsewhere, but that compensatory pick falls after the fourth round of the 2024 draft.  In the 2023 draft, these picks fell between 132nd and 137th overall.

Regardless of the Angels’ status, 2023 still set a new record for highest number of teams in excess of the luxury tax threshold — the previous mark was six teams, in both 2022 and 2016.  Of the 8-9 clubs surpassing the CBT this season, three (the Mets, Yankees, and Padres) also surpassed the $273MM threshold, which means that they’ll face the further penalty of having their first-round pick dropped back by ten slots in the 2024 draft.

Several prominent free agents from the CBT payors are either locks or strong candidates to receive qualifying offers, including the Padres’ Blake Snell and Josh Hader, the Phillies’ Aaron Nola, and the Blue Jays’ Matt Chapman.  The Dodgers’ J.D. Martinez is a QO candidate on paper, but with Los Angeles heavily rumored to be making a run at Ohtani, the Dodgers might pass on issuing a QO to Martinez out of a concern that he might accept, thus tying up the team’s designated hitter spot.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

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The Rays continued their impressive run of success while working with limited funds. Despite having one of the lowest payrolls in the league, they made the playoffs for a fifth straight season in 2023. Their offseasons generally see plenty of roster turnover, but it’s possible they spend a little bit more this winter in order to keep the gang together.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Wander Franco, SS: $174MM through 2032 (includes buyout on 2033 club option)
  • Zach Eflin, RHP: $29MM through 2025
  • Jeffrey Springs, LHP: $27MM through 2026 (includes buyout on 2027 club option)
  • Tyler Glasnow, RHP: $25MM through 2024
  • Yandy Díaz, IF: $18MM through 2025 (includes 2026 club option with no buyout)
  • Manuel Margot, OF: $12MM through 2024 (includes buyout on 2025 club option)
  • Brandon Lowe, IF: $9.75MM through 2024 (includes buyout on 2024 club option; deal also has club option for ’25)
  • Pete Fairbanks, RHP: $8.48MM through 2025 (includes buyout on 2026 club option)

Option Decisions

  • None

2024 financial commitments: $76.82MM
Total future commitments: $303.23MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Tapia, Beeks, Bethancourt, Sulser, Fleming

Free Agents

The 2023 campaign started out incredibly strong for the Rays, with the club winning its first 13 games and jumping out to a big lead in the American League East. But the injuries mounted as the season went along, forcing the club to limp into the playoffs via a Wild Card spot before getting euthanized by the Rangers, as Texas outscored them 11-1 in the two-game sweep.

This would normally be the time where speculation would turn to which players the club will trade before the next season. Given their tight budgets, the Rays generally operate by trading players as they get more expensive and closer to free agency, with Tommy Pham and Blake Snell being some of the examples from recent years. It’s possible that this offseason will be different, as president of baseball operations Erik Neander recently said that the club might move the payroll up in order to limit the turnover. That’s partially related to their new stadium funding deal, which is kind of sort of almost official.

Time will tell whether that comes to fruition or to what extent. The data at Cot’s Baseball Contracts has never seen them push beyond the $80MM range in terms of an Opening Day payroll, but Roster Resource estimates their 2024 payroll to be around $125MM right now. A few of their 16 arbitration-eligible players will surely end up non-tendered, which will cut into that number a bit, but it will still take a substantial payroll increase if the club legitimately wants to keep the roster intact.

Even if there aren’t a lot of changes this winter, there would still be question marks, particularly on the pitching staff. Each of Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan required elbow surgery in 2023, with each of their respective recoveries expected to carry into next year. Springs underwent Tommy John in April and is probably out until the middle of 2024, even in a best-case scenario. Rasmussen had the slightly milder internal brace procedure in July, which puts him out of action until at least midseason as well. McClanahan had TJS later in the year and is expected to miss all of 2024 as a result.

There are some names that can be pencilled into next year’s rotation, as each of Zach Eflin and Tyler Glasnow are under contract. They both have fairly spotty injury histories but they were each largely healthy in 2023. Aaron Civale didn’t finish strong but has a solid track record and can be retained via arbitration.

After that, things get less certain. Shane Baz missed all of 2023 recovering from his Tommy John surgery and should be healthy enough for next year, but he may have workload concerns. He only pitched 40 innings in 2022 between the majors and minors, and 92 the year before. There were no minor leagues in 2020 due to the pandemic and Baz was largely in short-season ball before that, meaning he’s yet to reach 100 innings in a season.

Zack Littell was gradually stretched out as the 2023 season wore on, similar to Springs and Rasmussen in previous years, though the results weren’t quite as emphatic. Littell tossed 87 innings as a Ray with a 3.93 ERA but striking out just 19.8% of opponents. His 2.5% walk rate in that time was excellent but is probably unsustainable in the long run. Amongst qualified pitchers this year, only George Kirby limited free passes at that rate.

Taj Bradley is on the depth chart as well, though he’s not a sure thing. He came into 2023 as one of the top pitching prospects in the league but posted an ERA of 5.59 in his first 104 2/3 innings. He won’t turn 23 years old until March and can certainly still put it together, but there’s clearly more development needed.

The club is generally unafraid to be creative in constructing its pitching staff, frequently deploying bullpen games or openers to get through a season. Perhaps they feel this group gives them enough of a rotation to start the year, with Springs and Rasmussen options to jump in later in the season. If that doesn’t come to fruition, reinforcements could always be found at the deadline.

In the bullpen, the club generally does a good job of finding quality arms without paying too much, and that could be the case again next year. Each of Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Colin Poche, Andrew Kittredge and Shawn Armstrong had an ERA of 3.09 or lower in 2023. Fairbanks is already under contract for around $3.82MM next year and none of the other four are projected to catch him via the arbitration process.

On the position player side of things, the shortstop position is a giant question mark given ongoing investigation into Wander Franco’s alleged inappropriate relationships with underage girls. It’s a fairly unprecedented situation and it’s unclear how long it will take to be resolved, but the club will likely operate under the assumption that they can’t rely on him. That likely leaves some combination of Taylor Walls, Osleivis Basabe and Junior Caminero covering the position, with Carson Williams perhaps debuting at some point later in the year.

Brandon Lowe, Isaac Paredes, Yandy Díaz and Harold Ramírez should be able to cover the non-shortstop positions, with Curtis Mead and Jonathan Aranda in the mix as well. The outfield mix seems solid with Randy Arozarena, Josh Lowe, Jose Siri, Manuel Margot and Luke Raley all slated to be back.

Catcher is a bit less certain, as Christian Bethancourt took a step back from a solid 2022 season. René Pinto got a decent amount of playing time down the stretch and held his own, so perhaps the club is content to give him a shot to take over as the lead backstop and bump Bethancourt to the backup role or cut him loose.

That still gives the club a strong core, but it’s also fair to wonder what kind of cuts may be coming. It’s not a guarantee that the payroll is going to suddenly get a 50% jump from the $80MM range to the $120MM range, so we might still see some classic Rays trades designed at saving some money and continually restocking the farm. Even if they do have that kind of money, it might be prudent to free some of it up in order to pursue upgrades to the starting staff or behind the plate.

Trading one of those arbitration relievers could still leave them with a solid bullpen, for instance. Arozarena is already set to make a projected $9MM, with two arbitration seasons after that. He’s still a bargain at that price but the Rays have shown that these kinds of players usually get dealt before reaching free agency. Ramírez hits well but is a poor defender, only getting 13 starts as a fielder in 2023. $4.4MM is still a good price for a solid bat but a Rays team that loves versatility could probably find a way to live without him. Lowe (Brandon, not Josh) is now just one year away from the end of his deal, perhaps allowing the club to make him available and replace him from within. Margot might be squeezed in that outfield picture a bit. He wouldn’t have a ton of trade value as a glove-first player with mounting injury concerns and declining defensive grades, but his deal has just one year and $12MM remaining. Many fans of rival clubs might look to Glasnow’s $25MM salary and dream of getting him out of Tampa, but the club probably can’t afford to thin out their starting depth any further.

Moving any of those players could help with the depleted starting staff, perhaps in a direct way by bringing pitching back the other way. Shane Bieber, Cal Quantrill and Paul Blackburn are some pitchers speculated to be available. The White Sox seem to be planning on contending, but Dylan Cease would be a logical trade chip if they pivot. The same goes from Griffin Canning and Patrick Sandoval of the Angels or Mitch Keller of the Pirates. Perhaps the Mariners feel they have enough pitching to part with Logan Gilbert or Bryan Woo while still contending.

Or perhaps the Rays will trade for prospects and then use the new payroll space to pursue a free agent pitcher. They wouldn’t be likely to shop at the top of the market, of course, but a targeted strike similar to last year’s Eflin deal wouldn’t be totally shocking. Perhaps they feel they can get the best out of someone like Jack Flaherty, since they almost acquired him at the deadline. Lucas Giolito, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha or Sean Manaea should be similarly in that mid-rotation or back-end batch of free agents.

The Rays are often a tough team to project, given their willingness to churn the roster perhaps more than any other club, even if that means moving star players. The comments from Neander suggest this winter might be different, but it’s tough to accept that at face value when it contradicts their established modus operandi. However it plays out, the Rays are starting from a decent position. Their departing free agents are mostly relief pitchers, leaving most of their 99-win team intact for now. The starting pitching looks a bit flimsy but that’s been the case in the past and the Rays always seem to find a way to wriggle to success regardless.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Rays-centric chat on 10-20-23. Click here to read the transcript.

MLBTR Poll: Chad Green’s Contract Options

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Last winter, right-handed reliever Chad Green signed one of the more convoluted free agent contracts in recent memory. The deal looked simple on the surface – an $8.5MM guarantee over two years – but it came with several options that could pay him as much as $32.25MM through 2026. Green earned $2.25MM during the 2023 campaign, while he spent most of the year on the injured list rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The Blue Jays always knew he’d miss the first several months of the season, hence his relatively low salary. This upcoming offseason, however, is when things get complicated.

Toronto has a club option for three more years and $27MM (plus up to $1MM in incentives each season). If the Blue Jays do not exercise their first option, Green will have the chance to accept an option of his own, a one-year player option worth $6.25MM (with as much as $2MM in additional incentives). Then, if Green also declines his option, the Blue Jays have a second, less expensive team option for two years and $21MM (again with up to $1MM in incentives each year). Finally, if both sides decline every option, Green will become an unrestricted free agent.

Given how little Green pitched in 2023, it’s hard to imagine the Blue Jays would pick him up for $9MM a year through his age-35 campaign. Then again, the veteran reliever returned from Tommy John on a perfectly normal timeline and looked healthy in September. In other words, he gave the Blue Jays everything they could have expected in 2023, and the team wouldn’t have signed this deal in the first place if they weren’t going to consider the option.

While Green gave up ten runs (seven earned) in only 12 innings of work this season, his underlying numbers were much more impressive. He struck out 16 of the 52 batters he faced and only issued three unintentional walks. His 3.11 SIERA and 2.84 xERA are also promising signs. What’s more, Green was a dominant and durable reliever for several years before he tore his UCL. From 2016-22, he posted a 2.79 ERA and 2.93 FIP in 326 innings of relief. Since his debut season, he ranks 11th among all relievers in FanGraphs WAR. If he returns to form in 2024, a three-year, $27MM deal would seem more than fair. A few comparable relievers signed for more than $30MM last winter, including Kenley Jansen (two years, $32MM) and Taylor Rogers (three years, $33MM).

For those precise reasons, Green is unlikely to accept his $6.25MM player option. If he does hit free agency, all his suitors will have the knowledge that Toronto turned down his services at both three years/$27MM and two years/$21MM. That being said, the market for right-handed relievers isn’t particularly deep, nor is it replete with high-end talent. He’s younger than other guys with a long track record, like Craig Kimbrel and David Robertson, and he’s more experienced out of the bullpen than other high-upside arms, like Jordan Hicks and Reynaldo López. Even if he struggles to find a multi-year offer, Green should be able to beat $6.25MM on a one-year pact. However, if he is worried about his health, it’s possible he could opt for another year of job security with the Blue Jays. Yet, considering his performance in September and October, that doesn’t seem to be a likely concern.

Toronto’s two-year, $21MM club option looks the most likely to be exercised, but at the same time, if the club has enough concerns to turn down the three-year option, perhaps they’re ready to move on from Green entirely. On top of that, while the two-year option is less expensive overall, it comes with a higher annual salary. The Blue Jays ran a payroll relatively close to the first luxury tax threshold in 2023, and they already have several payroll commitments for next season. If they’re looking to make some upgrades this winter without paying the tax, they might actually prefer the longer option with a lower AAV.

So, what do the MLBTR readers think? Will either side pick up an option, or will Green return to the open market? Have your say in the poll below!

(poll link for app users)

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

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A relatively quiet offseason a year ago didn’t stop the Dodgers from continuing their incredible run of regular season success. But after another disappointing playoff performance, perhaps they will be more aggressive this winter. There are many ways to do that, but the big question is whether or not they land the most unique free agent in history.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Mookie Betts, IF/OF: $295MM through 2032
  • Freddie Freeman, 1B: $108MM through 2027
  • Chris Taylor, 1B/OF: $30MM through 2025 (includes buyout on ’26 option)
  • Miguel Rojas, IF: $6MM through 2024 (includes buyout on ’25 option)
  • Tony Gonsolin, RHP: $5.4MM through 2024 (eligible for two more arbitration years after that)
  • Austin Barnes, C: $3.5MM through 2024 (includes ’25 option with no buyout)

Option Decisions

  • Club holds $18MM option on RHP Lance Lynn with $1MM buyout
  • Club holds $14MM option on IF Max Muncy with no buyout
  • Club holds $9.5MM option on RHP Joe Kelly with $1MM buyout
  • Club holds $6.5MM option on RHP Daniel Hudson with no buyout
  • Club holds $3MM buyout on RHP Alex Reyes with $100K buyout
  • Club holds option between $1MM and $7MM on Blake Treinen, depending on health

2024 financial commitments, assuming Muncy is the only option triggered: $98.9MM
Total future commitments, assuming Muncy is the only option triggered: $461.9MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Yarbrough, Almonte, Suero

Free Agents

The Dodgers had a fairly quiet offseason after 2022, limiting themselves to one-year free agents like Noah Syndergaard and J.D. Martinez. That led some observers to predict that they could be dethroned in the West by the Padres, who had a far louder winter, or perhaps an upstart Diamondbacks club. But the Dodgers had yet another excellent season, winning 100 games for the fourth straight full season and fifth out of the last six. They won the West division title for the 10th time out of the last 11 seasons, with their only second-place finish being the 106-win club in 2021 getting edged out by the 107-win Giants.

There’s no question they’ve been the most consistently good regular season club over the past decade-plus, but the postseason is another matter. All of those playoff berths have resulted in just one title, which was in the shortened 2020 season, and they’ve been quickly bounced out of the NLDS in each of their past two trips.

Perhaps that will lead the club to make some more noise this winter, which they have the ability to do. They’ve been one of the top spenders in the past decade but have generally avoided long-term commitments. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are the only players under contract beyond 2025 and each of those two are continuing to play at MVP-caliber levels, meaning there’s almost no dead money on the books.

In terms of 2024, Roster Resource estimates their current payroll around $126MM, which includes the MLBTR arbitration projections. A few non-tenders could drop that closer to $120MM, particularly if they let go of Yarbrough, who was cut by the Rays at this time a year ago. Their luxury tax figure would be under $140MM if they did indeed cut Yarbrough. That gives the Dodgers plenty of room to be aggressive this winter, as they have frequently run Opening Day payrolls in the $240-280MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Even if they want to reset their luxury tax status after paying the tax in the past two years, they could add about $100MM before getting near this year’s $237MM base threshold.

The Dodgers are likely to be one of many teams drawing up two distinct offseason plans, one that involves signing Shohei Ohtani and one that doesn’t. The most unique player in baseball history is about to become the most unique free agent in baseball history, with many pegging the Dodgers the most likely landing spot. Ohtani has frequently mentioned a desire to win as a priority and the Dodgers would have a compelling case in that department.

Of course, Ohtani will surely want to be compensated at a fair rate as well, but there’s nothing preventing the Dodgers from doing that. As mentioned, they have plenty of spending room both for the coming year and well into the future. It has been speculated that Ohtani might lean towards a West Coast club, since that was his preference when first coming over from Japan. At that time, he was limited by the amateur bonus pool system and was only going to be able to pull in a few million bucks, meaning that such a preference wouldn’t impact his earning power. Now he will be motivated to express an interest in any club, as expanding his market will help him secure the biggest possible guarantee. But if he privately holds onto that West Coast preference, it would only help the Dodgers.

It’s possible there are other factors that could work against them, at least speculatively. Ohtani hasn’t interacted with English-language media very much during his time as an Angel, at least compared to other superstars in the game. It has been speculated that moving to a bigger market club would make it harder for him to maintain that relative spotlight reluctance. Whether that’s something that actually matters to him can’t really be known.

There’s also the question of Ohtani’s leash to continue pitching deeper into his career. There’s no precedent for anything Ohtani does and different clubs will probably have different ideas about how long they want him to continue with the full two-way workload. Now that he’s coming off a second career Tommy John surgery, or something close to it, that only raises further questions about how he will hold up into his 30s. Some clubs may want to give him free rein to start for as long as he wants, others might have ideas about when a move to the bullpen will be warranted or when it would be time to stop pitching altogether. If the pitching eventually needs to stop, some clubs may view him as a viable outfielder, a position he played in Japan. Others might prefer to just keep him as a designated hitter as he ages.

It’s can’t really be known how the Dodgers view these matters, but these are things that will likely come up in offseason discussions with Ohtani and his reps. Ohtani is hitting free agency ahead of his age-29 season, two years younger than Aaron Judge was before his free agency. Since Judge was able to secure a nine-year deal, Ohtani will very likely be able to get into the double digits. Even though he’ll be a DH only in 2024, teams will undoubtedly be enticed by his potential return to being a two-way player, as well as the international marketing opportunities he can provide. But in the short-term, the free agency of Martinez means that the Dodgers have an open DH spot they can easily slot Ohtani into.

Gauging Ohtani’s interest in being a Dodger figures to be the number one priority for the club, with everything else following from there. But there will be some formalities that have to come first, with a large number of club options on the table. Each of Daniel Hudson, Blake Treinen and Alex Reyes missed all or most of 2023 due to injuries and should have their options declined. The Dodgers are generally unafraid of banking on their injured players but would likely work out new deals with any of this group they wanted to take another chance on.

The net $8.5MM decision on Joe Kelly is borderline, but the club would likely prefer to keep that powder dry for now, with the ability to circle back to Kelly or someone similar later in the winter. Max Muncy is a lock to have his option picked up, despite the low batting average and high strikeouts. He launched 36 home runs this year and walked in 14.7% of his plate appearances, leading to a wRC+ of 118 and 2.9 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs. Though he was able to nudge the option price up to $14MM by reaching plate appearance escalators, it’s still a bargain. Lance Lynn is likely to be bought out after posting a 5.73 earned run average this year.

The Dodgers will be looking to replace some thump in their lineup, whether they sign Ohtani or not, even though Betts and Freeman will each be back. Martinez and Jason Heyward each had solid bounceback years, but both are now set to return to free agency. Martinez has yet to receive a qualifying offer in his career and the Dodgers could offer him one, but there are reasons they may not do so. Martinez settled for a one-year, $10MM to join the Dodgers a year ago and this year’s qualifying offer is expected to go over $20MM. That kind of pay raise might be tempting for a 36-year-old designated hitter. But the Dodgers may not want to risk that since players who accept a qualifying offer can’t be traded until June 15. Having both Martinez and Ohtani on the same club isn’t possible with just one DH slot, so the Dodgers probably can’t take a chance by putting the offer in front of Martinez.

But Martinez will likely want to wait on Ohtani before deciding where to sign, since many clubs may have him as a backup option. That means the Dodgers may be able to circle back to him if they don’t end up landing Ohtani. Other players who may be in a similar boat include Jorge Soler, Brandon Belt or old friends Justin Turner and Joc Pederson.

Replacing Heyward may not be as necessary. Betts spent a lot of time on the infield this year with Gavin Lux suffering a season-ending knee injury in Spring Training. If Lux is healthy enough to rejoin the middle infield next year, Betts can go back to being a primary right fielder next to center fielder James Outman. Left field will still be a question mark, but the club would have some internal options there with Chris Taylor, Andy Pages and Jonny Deluca some of them. It might be possible to fit Heyward in there, but he may have cleaner paths to playing time elsewhere.

On the infield, Freeman and Muncy should have the corners largely spoken for. The middle infield is a bit less certain, with the aforementioned Lux situation the major unanswered question. The club was planning to give him a shot to be an everyday shortstop before his injury. Whether that plan is back on the table remains to be seen. If he is able to secure the shortstop job, he could push Miguel Rojas to second base or perhaps into a depth role. Or perhaps Lux sticks at the less-demanding second base spot going forward. There are also prospects looming, with Michael Busch and Jorbit Vivas some of those potentially in the mix for the keystone. Since the free agent market doesn’t have too much to offer anyway, the Dodgers might stick with internal candidates here as well, though the trade market theoretically offers players like Gleyber Torres, Jonathan India or Brendan Donovan.

The catching spot seems fine with Will Smith having another strong season in 2023. Austin Barnes wasn’t great at the plate in 2023 but is already under contract and still got good marks for his framing. Cutting him loose and signing a veteran backup wouldn’t be shocking, but it wouldn’t be an ideal use of resources when the club has bigger priorities elsewhere.

Outside of the Ohtani question, the big focus for the Dodgers this winter will be the starting pitching. This year saw the pitching injuries pile up, and Julio Urías become unavailable due to a domestic violence situation, with the diminished rotation arguably serving as the club’s unraveling. They tried to patch things together by trading for Lynn, Yarbrough and Eduardo Rodriguez, but E-Rod used his no-trade clause to stay with the Tigers while Lynn wasn’t able to salvage his rough season as hoped. The club can keep Lynn around but $17MM for the age-37 season of a pitcher who just allowed 44 homers is fairly steep.

Both Urías and Clayton Kershaw are set to become free agents, and some of the pitching injuries will carry over into next year. Dustin May will likely miss the first half after undergoing flexor tendon surgery in July. Tony Gonsolin had Tommy John later in the year and will likely miss the entire 2024 season. That leaves the club with Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 due to his own Tommy John, atop their depth chart. Bobby Miller likely earned a spot after posting a 3.76 ERA in 22 starts in 2023. Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone could compete for jobs as well but it’s arguable that none of them did enough to be guaranteed a gig.

That could position the Dodgers to seek out as many as three starting pitchers this offseason. One of them could be Kershaw coming back, though that’s become an annual question in recent years. The two most recent offseasons have seen him deciding between returning to the Dodgers, joining his hometown Rangers or retiring. Though he eventually returned to the Dodgers in each instance, it seems there’s less confidence in that path this year. His velocity dipped as he battled shoulder issues this year and he indicated he might take a few months before making his choice about 2024.

Even if the Dodgers land Ohtani, he won’t help the rotation since he won’t be pitching in 2024. The Dodgers have the spending capacity to play at any level of free agency, but it’s possible that their level of spending in this aisle is contingent on what happens with Ohtani and Kershaw. The top of the market will feature guys like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Aaron Nola, with each of them looking at nine-figure deals. Then there’s also solid guys at a lower tier, such as Seth Lugo or old friend Kenta Maeda, as well as bounceback candidates like Lucas Giolito, Jack Flaherty or Frankie Montas.

The trade market is another area the club could explore, though this path is a little trickier. Brandon Woodruff is out for most or perhaps all of 2024, which might mean the Brewers take Corbin Burnes off the market. Other theoretical trade candidates may be hard to pry loose as well, with the White Sox seemingly hoping to contend and therefore likely holding Dylan Cease. Perhaps Shane Bieber can be freed from Cleveland, but his stock is down after a bit of an uninspiring year and a late-season battle with elbow inflammation. The Pirates are probably looking to hold Mitch Keller as they try to build off some encouraging performances in 2023.

The bullpen is likely less of a priority, with plenty of strong arms still under club control next year. Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol, Caleb Ferguson, Victor Gonzálezand Alex Vesia all had good results in one way or another and each can be retained via affordable arbitration salaries. Adding a couple of veteran free agents to the group should be on the table, but the level of aggressiveness will likely be dictated by how the other priorities are addressed.

All signs point towards a bigger offseason for the Dodgers this year, though that could take a few different shapes. Maybe they can sign Ohtani or maybe they can’t. Maybe Kershaw comes back or maybe he doesn’t. Whether those guys are involved or not, the club will need to add to the rotation and the lineup. But there may not be any club with as much spending capacity this winter, meaning there’s a good chance this offseason looks very different from the last one.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Dodgers-centric chat on 10-19-23. Click here to read the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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Along with this post, Tim Dierkes held a live Cubs-centric chat. Click here to read the transcript.

After falling just short of a Wild Card berth, the Cubs must re-sign Cody Bellinger or replace his production, while also considering improvements at the infield corners and in the starting rotation.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • Marcus Stroman, SP: can opt out of remaining one year, $21MM
  • Drew Smyly, SP/RP: can opt out of remaining one year, $11MM
  • Kyle Hendricks, SP: $16MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout
  • Cody Bellinger, CF/1B: $25MM mutual option with a $5MM buyout
  • Yan Gomes, C: $6MM club option with a $1MM buyout
  • Brad Boxberger, RP: $5MM mutual option with an $800K buyout

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Cubs generally weren’t being picked as a playoff team in the preseason, but by the end of August a Wild Card berth was looking likely.  Instead, the team played to a 12-16 record in September and ultimately fell one win short of the Marlins and Diamondbacks (who held the tiebreaker over them anyway).  The shape and timing of the team’s record was painful for fans, but in the end this was simply an 83-win team.

Last winter’s big addition, Dansby Swanson, played just about as well as the Cubs could’ve hoped.  Mirroring the team as a whole, the shape of his contributions was less than ideal, as Swanson limped to an 86 wRC+ over the season’s final two months.  Still, Swanson hit well enough overall and led all MLB shortstops in defensive Outs Above Average en route to a 4.9 fWAR season that bested fellow 2022-23 free agents Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Carlos Correa.

The Cubs are in great shape in the middle infield, having added a year of control for Nico Hoerner in a late March extension.  Hoerner provided similar value to his double play partner Swanson, ranking fourth among second baseman in Outs Above Average and posting 4.7 WAR.

On the catching front, free agent signing Tucker Barnhart was inked to a two-year deal in the offseason but was released by August.  The lion’s share of work behind the dish went to Yan Gomes, whose 821 2/3 defensive innings at catcher were his most since 2018.  Gomes put in solid work, and the Cubs figure to pick up his option.  But at age 36, he can’t be counted on for the same workload in 2024.

Longtime Cubs catching prospect Miguel Amaya made the team for good in June, supplanting Barnhart.  Amaya hit well enough overall in his 156 plate appearances, though he did not receive consistent playing time from manager and former catcher David Ross.  The Gomes-Amaya job share seems likely to shift more toward Amaya in 2024, and a significant addition at catcher seems unlikely.

The Cubs are also set at the outfield corners with Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki, both of whom are under contract through 2026 after Happ’s April extension.  Similar to the Cubs’ middle infield combination, Happ played about as well as could be expected.  Suzuki’s season was uneven, but could be viewed as a leap forward given a wRC+ jump from 116 to 126.  He had a brutal June, perhaps affected by neck issues.  But once the calendar turned to August, Suzuki started hitting like a superstar.  His 183 wRC+ over the season’s final two months ranked third in all of baseball, behind only Mookie Betts and Marcell Ozuna.

The Cubs may need Suzuki to anchor their lineup next year, because Cody Bellinger’s excellent bounceback season could lead him to greener pastures.  Bellinger, 28, made good on his one-year deal to lead the Cubs with a 134 wRC+.  The likely Comeback Player of the Year split his time between center field and first base, cutting his strikeouts dramatically and crushing 26 home runs.  Bellinger started out strong in April but had been in the midst of a slump upon hitting the IL in late May for a bruised knee.  After a monthlong absence, Bellinger failed to hit the ground running.

Something clicked around June 27th, and Bellinger amazingly hit .414/.448/.682 with 11 home runs over his next 172 plate appearances.  It was, quite possibly, a $100MM hot streak.  Bellinger posted a 103 wRC+ from August 13th forward, but on the whole did well to erase the 2020-22 struggles that led him to a one-year deal.

Those struggles were explained away by agent Scott Boras as injury-related, with Boras saying the Dodgers had “asked [Bellinger] to play with a 35% strength deficiency.”  Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman called that “a very convenient narrative,” and Boras subsequently walked back his comments somewhat.  Understanding how Bellinger went from the 2019 MVP, to one of the worst hitters in baseball, and back to a 4 WAR level this year is crucial in valuing Bellinger as a free agent and projecting his long-term future.  Teams will also be considering Bellinger’s Statcast metrics, which as MLBTR’s Steve Adams pointed out in mid-August, may serve as red flags.

I have seen suggestions that a team could sign Bellinger for $150MM this winter.  My guess, without talking to Boras, is that the agent has a number roughly twice that high as a target.  Bellinger has youth, the ability to play a premium defensive position, elite offense in his contract year, and an MVP award on his shelf.  He’s also reaching free agency in a market devoid of MVP-caliber position player talent, aside from Shohei Ohtani.  Right now, I’m setting my expectations north of $250MM.

Circling back to the Cubs, they can scarcely afford to lose Bellinger, but if I’m in the correct neighborhood on the contract my guess is that the Ricketts family won’t have the appetite for it.  The Cubs pretty clearly moved toward the least expensive of the Big Four shortstops last winter in Swanson, and don’t appear to have made competitive offers to any of the other three.  Cubs ownership last shopped in the luxury aisle of free agency about six years ago, landing the #2 free agent in Yu Darvish.  They had done the same for Jon Lester and Jason Heyward previously, so there is precedent.  It’s just that it’s been a while, and there have been several missed opportunities to sign top free agents that would have supplemented the team well.  Bellinger also feels particularly risky on a megadeal, given how far he’d fallen to want to sign a one-year deal in the first place.

Another point against the Cubs signing Bellinger is the presence of Pete Crow-Armstrong.  If the Cubs believe in Crow-Armstrong, then Bellinger could spend most of a theoretical huge contract at first base, where a 120 wRC+ bat (my estimate) is a lot less exciting.  This year Crow-Armstrong conquered Double-A, did fine at Triple-A for a month, and then got a big league look in mid-September.  Crow-Armstrong drew only one start before the Cubs were eliminated, and went hitless in 19 plate appearances.  But much like Swanson and Hoerner, Crow-Armstrong’s calling card is elite defense.  Crow-Armstrong’s defense is good enough that he may be a credible regular at age 22 next year even if he doesn’t hit much.

If Bellinger prices himself out of the Cubs’ range and they decide to lean into the elite defender idea, Matt Chapman could be a target.  This year, the Cubs had four different players log 150+ innings at third base: Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, Miles Mastrobuoni, and trade deadline pickup Jeimer Candelario.  Madrigal and Mastrobuoni didn’t hit enough to fit as regulars at third base, while Wisdom was used as a short-side platoon bat and struck out nearly 37% of the time.

Chapman is something of a Dansby Swanson type player, only at third base.  He makes his reputation on his glove, but is generally good for a 110 wRC+ bat.  With Chapman, Crow-Armstrong, Swanson, and Hoerner, the Cubs could have four top-five defenders on the field.  That said, Chapman turns 31 in April, and his bat was even streakier this year than any of the aforementioned Cubs.

Candelario raked for about three weeks upon joining the Cubs, and then he was terrible for the final month or so, a stint that included a lower back strain.  In a thin market, he could be in line for a four-year deal, yet could still be a safer signing for the Cubs than Bellinger or Chapman.  He also has the ability to play first base, a position where Eric Hosmer, Trey Mancini, and Matt Mervis failed to impress.  Mervis, 26 in April, hit well at Triple-A and remains an option at first base or designated hitter.  Rhys Hoskins or Brandon Belt could also be possibilities at first base, if the Cubs are seeking a free agent on a short-term deal.

The Mets’ Pete Alonso represents an intriguing first base target for the Cubs.  In August, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic noted that the Cubs were among the teams that spoke to the Mets about Alonso prior to the deadline.  MLBTR projects a $22MM salary for Alonso in 2024, his final year before free agency.  Trading for Alonso would represent a way to replace Bellinger’s bat without making a long-term commitment.  The natural question is who would the Mets want from the Cubs for Alonso?  I don’t love some of the rare precedents for this type of trade, such as the Teoscar Hernandez or Paul Goldschmidt deals, so I’ll just say that Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns would likely seek two MLB-ready potential regulars, and the Cubs might at least have a few options on the position player side in Mervis or Kevin Alcantara.

The other big bat who could be available in trade this winter is the Padres’ Juan Soto, also under control for one more season.  Assuming the Cubs don’t want to push Happ back into center field, Soto is a less-than-ideal fit position-wise since he plays the corner outfield.  A Soto acquisition would be all about his bat, however, and his glove is shaky enough that increased DH time would be a fine one-year solution if the player is on board.  The cost in young controllable players would be significant, and Soto will earn more than Alonso next year.  I do think the Cubs could pull off a Soto or Alonso trade without parting with Crow-Armstrong.

One variable in all of this is the Cubs’ plan for Christopher Morel.  Morel put up a strong 119 wRC+ this year in 429 plate appearances with Statcast data to match, though at times his strikeout rate reached dizzying heights.  Though he’s only 24 years old and has the speed and arm to play just about anywhere, the Cubs have yet to find Morel a position.  Morel took about 38% of the team’s DH at-bats, and in his 220-game career he’s played all three outfield spots as well as second base, shortstop, and third base.

From the outside, there’s a pretty obvious long-term solution here: make a major offseason effort to teach the kid to play a competent third base.  Morel was one of six players the Cubs used at the hot corner this year, yet logged only 39 1/3 innings there.  Morel is too young and athletic to be pigeon-holed as a DH, but also doesn’t seem like he’ll flourish in a super-utility role.  If the Cubs don’t think he can play average defense at any position, perhaps Morel will wind up as trade bait.

As poor as this winter’s market is for position players, it does offer a fair number of DH types who should receive short-term contracts, such as Belt, J.D. Martinez, Mitch Garver, and Justin Turner.  Such a player could be a fit for the Cubs as a sort of Trey Mancini replacement.  Like Barnhart, Mancini was released before completing the first year of a two-year deal.

Before we get into one other free agent DH, who has also served as one of the best pitchers on the planet, let’s take a look at the Cubs’ payroll situation.  Under the Ricketts family, the Cubs have reached the competitive balance tax threshold in 2016, 2019, and 2020, though the taxes were not actually paid in 2020.  Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer noted to reporters in October that “We’re in a place now where our books are clean long term,” and that “There’s been a willingness [by ownership] to go over [the CBT] in the past.”

The first CBT threshold is $237MM in 2024, and the second is $257MM.  The Cubs did exceed the second threshold in 2019, so a $260MM payroll next year would not be without precedent in a CBT sense.  However, talking to reporters about payroll in October, Tom Ricketts said, “We were aggressive this year.  I think we’ll stay at those levels.”  He was non-committal on exceeding the CBT.

There are several key variables in saying where the Cubs’ payroll will sit when the offseason truly begins, but the one in which I’m least confident is Marcus Stroman’s status.  We’ll get to Stroman shortly, but if Stroman and Smyly stay put, Hendricks and Gomes’ options are exercised, and a few players are non-tendered, the Cubs’ CBT payroll could sit around $211MM.  That’d drop to around $188MM if Stroman opts out.  It’d be difficult for the Cubs to sign Shohei Ohtani and add other needed pieces without getting into the $260MM range.  I don’t think that’s likely, but let’s talk Ohtani anyway.

Back in 2017, the Theo Epstein-led Cubs made a strong enough initial pitch to Ohtani to be one of the player’s seven finalists – the only one located in the Midwest.  Aside from geography, the lack of the DH in the NL at the time was a major stumbling block.  Now, the Cubs have a DH spot and Ohtani will be a free agent without contract restrictions.  Ohtani had elbow surgery in September and will not pitch until 2025, yet we still believe he’ll require an average annual value in excess of $40MM and a contract exceeding $500MM.

The Dodgers figure to loom large on Ohtani, as a perennial contender that plays on the West Coast.  The Cubs can’t do anything about where they play, and one 83-win season hardly positions them as a regular contender.  It’s possible that most of the other teams bidding on Ohtani also can’t make a strong claim as a perennial contender.  So I think beyond a huge contract offer that I’m not convinced the Cubs would make, the team would have to assure Ohtani that they’re adding other key pieces this winter and will project to regularly make the playoffs.

It’s been four years since the Cubs actually paid the CBT, and six since they’ve signed a top-two free agent.  Ohtani is a once-in-a-generation player, and this might be the only offseason in which he’s technically available to any team.  It’s possible the Cubs are planning a run at Ohtani, but they don’t seem like a favorite.

As I mentioned, Stroman’s opt-out decision is tough to predict after a season in which he started quite strong but tanked in his last 11 outings and somehow fractured his rib cage cartilage.  MLBTR’s Anthony Franco wrote about this a few weeks ago for Front Office subscribers.  The points in favor of the opt-out, according to Anthony: “It’s possible he’d prefer to take the strong one-year salary, stay in a place where he’s comfortable, and bet on better health when he’d be a true free agent next winter.”  Anthony went on to counter, “That said, I don’t think it’s quite as likely as many Cub fans might expect. While Stroman’s value is down, there’d still be multi-year offers on the table if he did test the market. While they might come at a lower annual salary than $21MM, the overall guarantee should be strong enough to make opting out still worthwhile.”  Recent precedent in favor of Stroman opting out: Nathan Eovaldi turning down a qualifying offer from the Red Sox to sign a two-year, $34MM deal.

Justin Steele made a run at the Cy Young this year in a breakout season.  Jameson Taillon disappointed in his first year as a Cub, but his peripheral stats suggest he can get back to the low-4.00s ERA pitcher the team thought they were getting.  Ricketts indicated Hendricks will likely return, which makes sense after a solid bounceback season.  If Stroman stays, that’d be four rotation spots locked up with veteran arms.  Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, and Hayden Wesneski could compete for the fifth starter job, with Drew Smyly around in a swingman role.  Top pitching prospect Cade Horton reached Double-A this year and could make the leap to the bigs at some point in 2024.  Ben Brown and Caleb Kilian could be in the mix as well, though they did not have success at Triple-A this year.

The Cubs’ 4.26 rotation ERA ranked sixth in the National League.  Running mostly the same group out there in 2024 wouldn’t be exciting, but it’s not out of the question.  Even if Stroman stays, I can see the Cubs making some sort of rotation addition to improve their depth.  But I assume they wouldn’t mind the payroll flexibility they’d gain if he opts out, and would become more aggressive in the market in that case.

The free agent market for starting pitching this winter looks strong, led by 25-year-old Orix Buffaloes ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto.  Yamamoto checks a lot of boxes for the Cubs, much like Seiya Suzuki did.  Yamamoto is in the prime of his career, which is almost never the case for a free agent starter.  A team could reduce his AAV by stretching the years to eight or so, and they’d still only be committing through his age-32 season.  Plus, the posting fee paid to the Buffaloes doesn’t count against the CBT.  Hoyer took a scouting trip to Japan in September, where Yamamoto and lefty Shota Imanaga were among the players he saw.

As risky as a $200MM+ deal for Yamamoto could be, the rest of the top end of the free agent market would also require a leap of faith, with players like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, and possibly Eduardo Rodriguez.  The trade market doesn’t feature a ton of obvious targets, aside from perhaps Shane Bieber.

The Cubs’ makeshift bullpen also ranked sixth in the NL in ERA.  The group had the NL’s highest strikeout and walk rates, so it was a mixed bag.  David Ross leaned the hardest on Adbert Alzolay, Mark Leiter Jr., and Julian Merryweather in the second half.  MLBTR projects the trio to earn less than $6MM in total next year, so the Cubs have good value there.  Alzolay, 29 in March, broke out as the team’s closer this year but hit the IL at a key point in September with a forearm strain.  The wheels started wobbling on Leiter and Merryweather as well.

Out of desperation, Ross also used Jose Cuas, Smyly, Daniel Palencia, and Javier Assad in key spots in September.  They’ll all be in the mix next year.  Lefty Brandon Hughes should be back after missing most of the season due to knee surgery.  On his way back from March 2022 Tommy John surgery, Codi Heuer had June surgery to repair an elbow fracture.  His timeline is currently unknown.

Hoyer’s bargain-buy veterans last winter were Michael Fulmer and Brad Boxberger.  Both were non-factors this year due to injuries and ineffectiveness.  The Cubs haven’t signed a reliever to a multiyear deal since Craig Kimbrel in June of 2019, instead preferring cheap one-year deals in recent offseasons.

In trying to predict the Cubs’ offseason, payroll is the biggest consideration.  If the Cubs are to run, say, a $235MM CBT payroll and Stroman stays put, they’d have an estimated $24MM in AAV to add this winter.  That wouldn’t be a ton of wiggle room, in contrast to the $88MM in AAV the Cubs added last winter.  With Bellinger possibly departing, it’s tough to see the Cubs improving upon 2023 without a notable payroll increase.

Leody Taveras Prolongs His Breakout Season Into the Playoffs

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Leody Taveras was always a glove-first prospect. Evaluators praised his long strides, top-tier sprint speed, and powerful arm, with Baseball America naming him the best defensive outfielder in the Rangers system three years in a row. He showed potential in his bat, too, but never quite reached his ceiling in the minor leagues. However, if you’d only seen Taveras play in the 2023 postseason, you’d never guess that his bat was once such a question mark.

The 25-year-old has started in center field for all seven of the Rangers’ playoff games thus far. He has taken 29 trips to the plate and reached base 14 times; among those still active in the postseason, only Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Evan Carter, and Trea Turner have reached base more often. Taveras has drawn six walks, slapped five singles, and recorded one of each flavor of extra-base hit. He’s 3-for-3 in stolen base attempts, and he hasn’t struck out since Game 1 of the ALDS. Overall, his slash line sits at .348/.483/.609, good for a 199 wRC+. Needless to say, those aren’t numbers you expect to see from a “glove-first” center fielder.

Taveras wasn’t nearly as successful with the bat during the regular season (nor is he likely to sustain his monstrous postseason slash line), but he did take a meaningful step forward at the plate. In his first full season, he slashed .266/.312/.421, career highs in all three categories. What’s more, he brought his strikeout rate down below league average and finally tapped into the raw power evaluators always saw in his profile. His average exit velocity went up, he refined his launch angles, and he hit more barrels than in his first three seasons combined. In 143 games, the switch-hitter slugged 14 home runs and 31 doubles, and he legged out three triples to boot.

While Taveras went through a rough patch in the second half, slashing .191/.224/.316 during the first six weeks after the All-Star break, he turned things around in September. Over his final 26 games, he went 26-for-84, hitting .310 and producing a 126 wRC+. Even the best hitters go through slumps, and the good ones have the resilience to come out swinging on the other side.

Altogether, his regular season offensive numbers add up to a 98 wRC+. That’s two percent worse than the league-average hitter, but it’s worth considering that Taveras plays a premium defensive position. According to FanGraphs, primary center fielders produced a 98 wRC+ this season, making Taveras perfectly average for his position. Average offense is more than enough for a player who also boasts elite speed and an excellent glove.

Indeed, Taveras proved to be a five-tool player in 2023. He stole 14 bases with his 92nd-percentile sprint speed, and he graded out as a strong defender by nearly every metric available. The Rangers’ center fielder posted a .997 fielding percentage, 3 Defensive Runs Saved, and 6 Outs Above Average. According to Baseball Savant, he ranked in the 85th percentile in overall fielding run value, thanks to his strong arm and quick reactions in the outfield.

After his breakout campaign in 2023, the Rangers are surely hoping Taveras will be their center fielder for the foreseeable future. Still just 25 years old, he won’t be arbitration-eligible until the 2025 season, and he won’t reach free agency for another three years after that. Leody Taveras can’t maintain his postseason performance forever, but if he keeps playing like he did this past season, the Rangers certainly won’t complain.

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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MLB’s best regular season team, the Braves were knocked out by the Phillies in a disappointing Division Series. They’ll bring back the majority of the roster to give things another go in 2024, although they could have a few changes outside the core.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Austin Riley, 3B: $197MM through 2032 (deal includes ’33 club option)
  • Matt Olson, 1B: $132MM through 2029
  • Spencer Strider, RHP: $74MM through 2028 (including buyout of ’29 club option)
  • Sean Murphy, C: $69MM through 2028 (deal includes ’29 club option)
  • Michael Harris II, CF: $67MM through 2030 (including buyout of ’31 club option; deal includes ’32 club option)
  • Ronald Acuña Jr., RF: $61MM through 2026 (including buyout of ’27 club option; deal includes ’28 club option)
  • Raisel Iglesias, RHP: $32MM through 2025
  • Marcell Ozuna, DH: $19MM through 2024 (including buyout of ’25 club option)
  • Ozzie Albies, 2B: $18MM through 2025 (including buyout of ’26 club option; deal includes ’27 club option)
  • Travis d’Arnaud, C: $8MM through 2024 (deal includes ’25 club option)
  • Orlando Arcia, SS: $5MM through 2025 (including buyout of ’26 club option)
  • Tyler Matzek, LHP: $1.9MM through 2024 (deal includes ’25 club option)

Option Decisions

2024 financial commitments: $130.65MM
Total future commitments: $686.65MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Chirinos, Soroka, Lopez, Allard, Heller, Hilliard, Tonkin, Velazquez, Ynoa

Free Agents

For the second straight year, a Braves team that won 100+ games was vanquished by the Phillies in a four-game Division Series. While surely a frustrating endpoint for the organization and its fanbase, they’ll have another crack with the same key group of players that comprised this year’s most dominant regular season team.

In each of the past two winters, the Braves had a marquee impending free agent. There’s no one close to the level of Freddie Freeman or Dansby Swanson this winter, though they’re now just a year away from the potential departure of star southpaw Max Fried.

The most notable potential free agents among this year’s class fall into one of two categories: veterans whose contracts contain a club option or non-closing relievers. Charlie Morton is the biggest name in the former group. The Braves hold a $20MM option on the righty, who worked to a 3.64 ERA across 30 starts.

Morton turns 40 next month and has been noncommittal about his future for a few seasons. He’s clearly comfortable in Atlanta, signing successive one-year contracts going back to 2021. Morton has been reasonably effective that entire time, combining for a 3.77 ERA while taking the ball for 94 starts.

This past season didn’t end as Morton envisioned. He carried a 3.29 ERA into the final month but allowed nearly seven earned runs per nine in September. A minor injury to the index finger on his throwing hand ended his season, although he likely could’ve made it back had the Braves gotten to the NLCS.

The down finish might make the Braves reluctant to commit a $20MM salary. Even if Atlanta balks at that asking price, it stands to reason the sides would have interest in a slightly lesser figure if Morton wants to continue playing. Perhaps negotiating a new deal in the $15MM range could be mutually agreeable.

If Morton retires or signs elsewhere, Atlanta’s rotation depth would become a real question. Spencer Strider and Fried are an elite 1-2 combination. It tails off quickly. While Bryce Elder had a solid rookie season overall, the risk of his pitch-to-contact approach was demonstrated with a 5.11 ERA in the second half. Kyle Wright underwent shoulder surgery and will miss the entire season. Ian Anderson and Huascar Ynoa could return from Tommy John rehabs in the season’s first half; both right-handers had struggled before going under the knife. Allan Winans and Darius Vines seem better suited for depth roles.

Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd landed season-opening rotation spots this year. Both were hit hard and quickly lost their starting jobs. Michael Soroka pitched well in Triple-A but was tagged for a 6.40 ERA in seven big league appearances. His season ended in early September due to forearm inflammation. With a projected $3MM arbitration salary and enough service time that he can no longer be optioned to the minor leagues without his consent, he may not be tendered a contract. Late-season waiver claim Yonny Chirinos and trade returnee Kolby Allard could be non-tendered as well.

Among the in-house options, 20-year-old righty AJ Smith-Shawver is the most intriguing. He struck out over 31% of minor league opponents and earned his first major league call in May. He had an unspectacular 20:11 strikeout-to-walk ratio over six MLB contests. That shouldn’t stake a firm claim to a rotation spot, but the Braves had sufficient faith to carry him on their playoff roster. Atlanta is aggressive enough in promoting young players that they could give Smith-Shawver a look early in the year.

That may also be true of 2023 first-round pick Hurston Waldrep. The Florida product made it as high as Triple-A Gwinnett in his draft year. He fanned a third of opponents with a 1.53 ERA in his first eight professional starts. In many organizations, Waldrep would’ve closed out the season in the low minors. The Braves move their top talents quickly, and while both Smith-Shawver and Waldrep presently have below-average control, they have strong enough arsenals that they could get on the radar.

Even if the Braves are confident in Smith-Shawver and/or Waldrep factoring in early in the season, they’ll need to bring in starting pitching. Atlanta has shied away from free agency in recent years, preferring to make their big strikes via trade and subsequent contract extensions.

The aren’t a ton of clear rotation trade targets. There’d been speculation about the Brewers trading one of Brandon Woodruff or Corbin Burnes. With Woodruff potentially missing all of next season following shoulder surgery, he’s no longer a possibility. That might take Burnes off the table as well, since Milwaukee would take a major step back if they lose both of their top starters. The Guardians could move Shane Bieber, who’s projected for a $12.2MM salary in his final year of club control and missed most of the second half with forearm inflammation.

Teams will inquire with the White Sox about Dylan Cease, though it’s unclear if Chicago has the appetite for that kind of move. It’s a similar story with the Rays and Tyler Glasnow. Boston’s Nick Pivetta and Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill are potential targets among arbitration-eligible starters.

If the Braves can’t line up a trade, they should have room to go into free agency. They have just under $131MM committed to next year’s roster. The arbitration class should tack on around $25MM pending non-tenders. Exercising Morton’s option or negotiating a slightly lower salary could bring their expenditures to the $170-175MM range.

Atlanta carried an Opening Day payroll just above $203MM this year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That’d leave around $25-30MM in spending room if they’re willing to repeat that level. It’s a similar story regarding the luxury tax threshold. The Braves exceeded the base threshold this year. Should they go past next year’s threshold — which begins at $237MM — they’d pay escalating penalties as a repeat payor.

Atlanta’s current CBT estimate sits somewhere in the $190-200MM range. (It’s higher than the actual payroll figure because the CBT calculation includes player benefits and is based off contracts’ average annual values.) The option price or a new deal for Morton could leave them between $20-30MM shy of the base threshold to begin the offseason. There’s nothing to suggest the $237MM CBT number represents a hard barrier for the organization, but it’ll likely be a factor in the front office’s decision-making.

A strike for Blake Snell or Yoshinobu Yamamoto isn’t the Braves’ typical operating procedure. Going into the middle tier of the market for someone like Jack Flaherty, Seth Lugo or Michael Wacha should be viable. If Morton doesn’t return, that’d leave more payroll room if they wanted to make a run at Sonny Gray or Eduardo Rodriguez.

The front office figures to engage Fried’s camp in extension talks. The 2022 Cy Young runner-up is projected for a salary around $14.4MM in his final season of arbitration. He’s on track to reach free agency in advance of his age-31 campaign. Fried should top the six-year, $162MM guarantee that Carlos Rodón received last winter. The contract that Snell lands this offseason could set a new standard for Fried’s camp. The Braves have been the league’s most aggressive team in signing key players to extensions. The Freeman and Swanson scenarios demonstrate they’re not keen to throw top-of-the-market money at all their players, though.

Atlanta also figures to go into free agency for relief help. Joe Jiménez and deadline pickup Pierce Johnson are both headed to free agency. Jiménez had an excellent season and could find a three-year deal. The Braves never entrusted him with high-leverage work, so they seem unlikely to match that kind of commitment. Johnson was utterly dominant after coming off from the Rockies. Retaining him on a two-year pact could be viable.

The Braves could also re-sign Jesse Chavez, who consistently provides them with quality low-leverage innings on salaries barely above the league minimum. They have a pair of option decisions on Collin McHugh and Kirby Yates. The former is likely to be bought out after his strikeout rate plummeted this past season. They could retain Yates, who still has huge strikeout stuff, for an extra $4.5MM after accounting for the option buyout. Atlanta will decline its end of a $7MM mutual option on Brad Hand.

Raisel Iglesias is under contract for another two seasons as the closer. A.J. Minter is a high-leverage lefty. Tyler Matzek should be back after undergoing Tommy John surgery during the 2022 postseason. Yates, Nick Anderson and long man Michael Tonkin could all be retained. Rookie Daysbel Hernández made the playoff roster and offers a high-strikeout, high-walk option.

Even if they can re-sign Johnson, the Braves should add one or two arms to the late innings. A nine-figure strike for Josh Hader seems unlikely, but anyone else in the class could fit. Robert Stephenson, Jordan Hicks and Reynaldo López are among the higher-upside arms in the free agent group. Trade possibilities include Scott Barlow and Kyle Finnegan.

The lone option decision on the position player side is a $9MM provision for Eddie Rosario. It’s a borderline price for the streaky left fielder, who had a .255/.305/.450 showing with 21 home runs in 516 plate appearances this year. While his overall production was average, Rosario’s in-season performance was extremely volatile. He was one of the best hitters on the planet in June, excellent in August, and well below-average in every other month.

If the Braves move on, Tommy Pham, Michael Conforto (if he opts out of his deal with the Giants) and Mark Canha (pending a club option with Milwaukee) could be free agent targets. Alex Verdugo and Ramón Laureano could be on the trade market.

Aside from the Rosario decision, the starting lineup is in place. Michael Harris II and Ronald Acuña Jr. will hold the other outfield spots. Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia and Austin Riley are locked in around the infield. Marcell Ozuna mashed from May onwards and silenced early-season speculation about his future at designated hitter. Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud make for an excellent catching tandem, Murphy’s late-season offensive swoon notwithstanding.

No one would’ve pegged the Braves as a suitor for Murphy going into last winter, so a trade to add to the lineup can’t be entirely ruled out. Acquiring a notable starting pitcher feels more likely given the offense’s strength, however. Should they try to bring in a starter with multiple seasons of club control — thereby providing some cover if Fried walks next offseason — they could dangle middle infielder Vaughn Grissom.

Arcia’s emergence at shortstop kept Grissom mostly in Triple-A this year (although he did make the playoff roster and was improbably called off the bench to take their final at-bat against Matt Strahm). He had an excellent year in Gwinnett, hitting .330/.419/.501 with a 12% walk rate while striking out just 14.1% of the time. The biggest question is where he best fits defensively.

There’s no room for him on the Atlanta infield. The Braves could get Grissom some outfield work as a possible Rosario replacement. If another team feels the 22-year-old (23 in January) projects as a big league ready shortstop or second baseman, he might be more valuable to the Braves as a trade chip. The Mariners (Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo) and Tigers (Reese Olson, Sawyer Gipson-Long) have questions at one or both middle infield spots and could dangle a controllable starter who has shown promise at the major league level. That kind of young player swap is rare but can’t be ruled out, particularly with teams having very little opportunity to add middle infield talent in free agency.

As tends to be the case for president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his staff, there’s the potential for a notable move or two. Yet the broad theme of the winter should again be continuity. Brian Snitker will be back for an eighth full season as manager. The most important players are all under contract, with everyone aside from Fried signed for multiple years. The Braves should be a top five team in 2024. Whether that results in a commensurate playoff run won’t be known until October.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Braves-centric chat on 10-18-23. Click here to view the transcript.

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