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MLBTR Poll: Reviewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Shortstop Class

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Last offseason’s free agent class, while headlined by Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, is perhaps most notable for the quartet of free agent shortstops that stood near the top of the class: Trea Turner, who signed with the Phillies; Xander Bogaerts, who landed in San Diego; Carlos Correa, who returned to the Twins after physical issues scuttled deals in both San Francisco and Queens; and Dansby Swanson, who joined the Cubs. With the 2023 season all but complete and free agency nearly upon us once again, let’s take a look at the four shortstops, their performance in 2023, and their remaining contracts:

Trea Turner (Phillies)

Contract: 10 years, $272.72MM remaining covering age 31-40 seasons

Turner’s first season in Philadelphia was a difficult one for much of the year. After riding a hot stretch through the first week of the season, the next two months were nothing short of brutal as Turner slashed just .210/.259/.341 over his next 51 games. At that point in the season, the Phillies were the fourth-place team in the NL East with a disappointing 27-32 record. Of course, the team would turn things around from there, ultimately winning 90 games en route to a second consecutive NLCS appearance. As the Phillies improved, Turner followed suit, slashing a far stronger .288/.347/.517 the rest of the way. Those solid numbers are primarily thanks to Turner’s fantastic performance down the stretch this season; he slashed an incredible .317/.371/.629 in August and September. Turner’s success has continued into the postseason, as he’s slashed a whopping .500/.538/.917 during the Phillies’ postseason run to this point.

Taken together, Turner’s weak start to the season saw him post his worst campaign since 2018 as he slashed .266/.320/.459 with a 108 wRC+ while posting weak defensive metrics (-5 Outs Above Average, -12 Defensive Runs Saved). That being said, he still provided considerable value on the basepaths, going a perfect 30-for-30 in stolen base attempts, and his strong finish to the season could indicate that Turner can regain his offensive form of the previous three seasons (139 wRC+ 2020-2022). Turner’s 3.8 fWAR this season was the ninth-best mark among qualified shortstops in 2023.

Xander Bogaerts (Padres)

Contract: 10 years, $254.55MM remaining covering age 31-40 seasons

Like Turner, Bogaerts had an up-and-down start to his 2023 campaign. His first month in San Diego hardly could’ve gone better, as Bogaerts slashed .308/.400/.514 through the end of April, but a nagging wrist issue saw his production plummet in May, when he slashed just .200/.283/.263 in 25 games. From there, Bogaerts saw his production even out, as he slashed .300/.353/.462 from June 1 onward, allowing him to finish the season with stats largely in line with his consistent career numbers, even as the 82-80 Padres fell short of expectations. In 665 trips to the plate this season, Bogaerts slashed .285/.350/.440 with a wRC+ of 120. That performance is good for his sixth-consecutive season with a 120 wRC+ or better, and his eighth-consecutive full season with more than 3.0 fWAR. Defensive metrics were mixed on Bogaerts this season, as he posted a -4 DRS but a +3 OAA. Bogaerts’s 4.4 fWAR this season was the seventh-best mark among qualified shortstops in 2023.

Carlos Correa (Twins)

Contract: Five years, $166.67MM remaining covering age 29-33 seasons; four vesting options could take total to nine years, $236.67 remaining covering age 29-37 seasons

After failing physicals with both the Giants and the Mets this past offseason before returning to Minnesota, Correa saw his health remain a focal point throughout the 2023 campaign. Though he avoided the injured list for much of the year, both his offense and defense suffered as he battled plantar fasciitis for most of the season. Typically an above-average offensive threat and strong defender at shortstop, Correa posted the worst season of his career this year as he slashed just .230/.312/.399 (96 wRC+) while posting middling defensive metrics (+1 OAA, -2 DRS). That being said, after going on the injured list for the final weeks of the regular season, Correa impressed in the playoffs with a .409/.458/.545 slash line in six games as the Twins won their first postseason series since 2002. The injury marred campaign makes Correa difficult to project going forward, though as the youngest of the four top shortstops from last offseason’s class, he has youth on his side. Correa’s 1.1 fWAR this season was 17th among the 21 qualified shortstops in 2023.

Dansby Swanson (Cubs)

Contract: Six years, $163MM remaining covering age 30-35 seasons

Swanson’s first year in Chicago was a difficult one to predict, as the 29-year-old was coming off a career year in 2022 where he slashed a career-best .277/.329/.447 while posting elite defensive metrics. Ultimately, the bat fell back to Earth a bit in 2023 as Swanson slashed a solid but unexceptional .244/.328/.416 that was good for roughly league average (104 wRC+), while oscillating between considerable hot streaks (including a midsummer stretch where Swanson slugged .618 with nine home runs in 99 plate appearances) and equally significant cold stretches (including a .161/.254/.304 slash line in his final 14 games of the season). One thing that remained consistent throughout Swanson’s season, however, was his stellar defense. Swanson was the best defensive shortstop in baseball this year according to both DRS (+18) and OAA (+20), allowing him to post a strong 4.9 fWAR that was outstripped by only Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor, and Bobby Witt among qualified shortstops in 2023.

———————

So, one year in, which contract is looking the best to MLBTR readers? Turner remains an exciting talent on the basepaths and finished the season strong, but defensive miscues and his cold start to the season could be early signs of declining production. Bogaerts remained consistent as ever in all facets of the game, pairing solid offense with average defense, while Correa’s superstar potential took a backseat in an injury-marred season. Meanwhile, Swanson flashed incredible defense but was essentially league average on offense, as is consistent with his profile in recent years. Which player would you most like to have on your team in 2024 and beyond? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Which Contract Looks The Best For 2024 And Beyond
Trea Turner 43.68% (3,012 votes)
Dansby Swanson 35.43% (2,443 votes)
Carlos Correa 11.54% (796 votes)
Xander Bogaerts 9.34% (644 votes)
Total Votes: 6,895

MLBTR Poll: Tim Anderson’s Club Option

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The 2023 was a brutal one for the White Sox, who entered the year with postseason aspirations but found themselves as one of the league’s biggest sellers come the trade deadline. The club ultimately lost 101 games in 2023, their second 100-loss campaign in six years. While the club is facing a host of problems, from a pitching staff stripped to the bone by midseason trades to reported clubhouse culture issues, perhaps the biggest reason for concern about the club’s fortunes going forward is the fall from grace of franchise shortstop Tim Anderson.

Since breaking out during the 2019 season, Anderson has been a face of the franchise on the south side of Chicago. From 2019-2021, the young shortstop slashed an excellent .322/.349/.495 (126 wRC+) in 295 games while approaching a 20/20 campaign in both full seasons of that stretch. He led all qualified hitters in batting average during that stretch while playing a solid shortstop, and was a key piece of what looked to be a sustainable White Sox core for the future.

Unfortunately, things started to come off the rails for both Chicago and Anderson himself in 2022. Anderson’s offense regressed somewhat as he slashed .301/.339/.395 (110 wRC+). While he posted a career-best strikeout rate of just 15.7%, that improved contact did not make up for Anderson’s power outage, as he posted a career-low .093 ISO, the 18th-lowest figure of all players with as many plate appearances as him that season. To make matters worse, Anderson was limited to just 79 games by two separate IL stints for groin and finger injuries. While Anderson struggled to stay on the field, the White Sox faltered in his absence, going just 81-81 and missing the playoffs for the first time since 2019.

After a downturn in performance for both club and player, both sides hoped for better days in 2023, but those days did not arrive. Amid the club’s worst season since their 106-loss campaign in 1970, Anderson had far and away the worst season of his career. The 30-year-old slashed a paltry .245/.286/.296 in 524 trips to the plate, a figure that’s 40% worse than league average by measure of wRC+. His wRC+, ISO, wOBA, and slugging percentage were all the worst in the majors among all qualified hitters, and his on-base percentage also ranked in the bottom five.

Anderson’s brutal season has caused plenty of speculation regarding his future in the White Sox organization. The club holds a $14MM club option on his services for the 2024 season with a $1MM buyout. While the $13MM decision once appeared to be a no-brainer for one of the league’s better regulars at a premium position, the future now appears anything but certain for Anderson and Chicago. New GM Chris Getz recently spoke about the upcoming decision on Anderson, indicating that the decision “deserves an exhaustive discussion” considering Anderson’s importance to the organization in recent years, though he offered no assurance that Anderson would return to the South Side next year.

Further complicating matters is the lack of quality shortstop options on the open market this season. If the club wishes to move on from Anderson, they’ll be hard-pressed to find a clear upgrade in free agency with Amed Rosario and Gio Urshela headlining the upcoming class. Of course, top prospect Colson Montgomery is figures to be the club’s shortstop of the future following a big season that saw him advance to Double-A late in the year. While Montgomery is certainly on the radar for a big league debut as soon as next year, it seems unlikely Chicago would be content to use him as the Opening Day shortstop next year after just 37 games at the Double-A level. Retaining Anderson certainly wouldn’t block Montgomery, as Anderson himself has expressed a willingness to move to second base going forward.

Ultimately, the upcoming option decision leaves the White Sox forced to choose between risking overpaying Anderson for another abysmal year of production in 2024 or risking him returning to form elsewhere when he could’ve been retained on a relative bargain compared to his typical production. How do MLBTR readers feel the White Sox should approach the upcoming decision on Anderson’s option? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Should The White Sox Pick Up Tim Anderson's Team Option For 2024?
No 60.58% (4,012 votes)
Yes 39.42% (2,611 votes)
Total Votes: 6,623

Poll: Who Will Win The League Championship Series?

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Two first-time postseason meetings will take place during the League Championship Series, with these fresh matchups underlining the upset-filled nature of the 2023 playoffs.  We could also be heading towards an entirely fresh World Series matchup as well, or potentially a rematch of last year’s Fall Classic.  The ALCS begins Sunday in Houston, with the NLCS getting underway on Monday in Philadelphia.

Rangers vs. Astros

Amidst all of the postseason’s unpredictability, the Astros remain the constant.  Houston is in the ALCS for the seventh consecutive year, with two World Series titles (2017 and last season) and two other AL pennants to show for this incredible run of success.  The Astros know what to do in October, and their ALDS victory over the Twins also saw a player without a championship ring suddenly step up, as Jose Abreu hit three homers over the four-game series.  The regular season was a disappointment for Abreu, but if he has suddenly locked in and found his old White Sox form, Houston’s lineup will look even more imposing.

Then again, the Rangers can roll out an awfully imposing group of hitters themselves.  Texas is a perfect 5-0 over its series triumphs over the Rays and Orioles, in part because Corey Seager and the rookie duo of Evan Carter and Josh Jung have been almost impossible to get out.  The Texas rotation and bullpen will inevitably have question marks, yet their arms have gotten the job done thus far, with a 2.25 ERA over 45 postseason innings.  Plus, the pitching staff might get even stronger with the expected return of Max Scherzer in some capacity for the ALCS.

There is already a fierce rivalry between these two Lone Star State rivals, as the Rangers’ return to prominence will now face a critical test against the benchmark that is the Astros.  Though the Rangers led the AL West for most of the season, the Astros slipped ahead to clinch the division on a tiebreaker — both clubs finished with a 90-72 record, but Houston held a comfortably 9-4 advantage in head-to-head play.

Justin Verlander has been announced as Houston’s starter for Game 1, and Jordan Montgomery will take the ball for Texas.  Both pitchers were acquired at the trade deadline, though naturally Verlander already has a long history in an Astros uniform.

(poll link)

Who Will Win The ALCS?
Rangers 60.28% (4,346 votes)
Astros 39.72% (2,864 votes)
Total Votes: 7,210

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies

The first season of the expanded playoffs saw the Phillies go from sixth seed to NL champions in 2022, and now a year later, the Phils find themselves as the favorites trying to hold off another sixth-seeded upstart.  Like the Rangers, the Diamondbacks have yet to drop even a single game in these playoffs, after sweeping away the Brewers and the Dodgers over the first two rounds.  The Phillies (1.53, .892 OPS) and D’Backs (2.20, .877) lead all postseason teams in ERA and OPS, showing the well-rounded nature of both clubs’ performances thus far.

Star youngsters Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno have led the way for Arizona, and the rotation depth that plagued the D’Backs during the regular season hasn’t been an issue in the short-series environment of the postseason.  Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are a formidable pair of frontline arms, and rookie Brandon Pfaadt looked sharp in 4 1/3 shutout innings against Los Angeles in Game 3 of the NLDS.  Arizona also has an unusual bit of superstition on its side, in that every team to ever eliminate the Brewers from a postseason series has also won at least a league pennant.

While the underdog Diamondbacks have shown no fear during these playoffs, they’ll be facing a tough assignment in facing a tested Phillies team that has both a raucous home crowd and the home-field advantage.  Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Bryce Harper, and J.T. Realmuto have been a four-man wrecking crew during the playoffs, combining for nine homers and 19 RBI over Philadelphia’s six games.  If there is one downside, it is that the rest of the Phillies’ lineup has been mostly quiet, though there is still plenty of talent that could emerge in a new series.

Arizona will start Gallen, Kelly, and Pfaadt over the first three NLDS games.  A well-rested Zack Wheeler is expected to start Game 1 for Philadelphia, with Aaron Nola and Ranger Suarez probably lining up for the next two starts.

(poll link)

Who Will Win The NLCS?
Phillies 70.49% (5,259 votes)
Diamondbacks 29.51% (2,202 votes)
Total Votes: 7,461

MLBTR Poll: San Diego’s Juan Soto Decision

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Just over fourteen months ago, the Padres shook the baseball world at the 2022 trade deadline by dealing a package of prospects and young players to the Nationals in exchange for superstar outfielder Juan Soto (alongside first baseman Josh Bell). The addition of Soto gave San Diego a young, elite talent to replace Fernando Tatis Jr. for the remainder of the season as the club sought its first full-season postseason berth since 2006 before pairing the two up in the outfield in 2023 and beyond.

Soto fulfilled his end of the bargain, posting a 131 wRC+ in 228 trips to the plate down the stretch for the Padres before slashing .222/.333/.611 in the NLCS as the club fell to the Phillies in five games last year. He went on to post what has become a typical season by his standards in 2023: the 24-year-old phenom slashed a strong .275/.410/.519 (155 wRC+) while clubbing 35 home runs, recording more walks than strikeouts and playing in all 162 games for the Padres en route to his third consecutive All Star appearance. Unfortunately, the rest of the club was unable to keep up with him this season, as the Padres finished with an 82-80 record, spending most of the season under .500 and never leading the NL West despite lofty preseason expectations.

The club’s brutal 2023 campaign seems to be spurring changes for the club going forward, as reports have indicated the club is planning to cut payroll from this year’s $255MM figure to around $200MM this offseason. Such a steep cut in payroll, of course, has caused speculation about how the Padres could hope to improve a roster that figures to lose Josh Hader and Blake Snell to free agency this winter. With MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projecting Soto to make a whopping $33MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility, it’s easy to see why many around the baseball world expect the club to entertain offers on the superstar this offseason.

After all, saving over $30MM on Soto’s salary could allow the club to supplement other areas of need on the roster within their newfound payroll constraints, to say nothing of the possibility that the Soto return could include big league ready pieces who could help supplement the 2024 roster themselves. As talented as Soto is, it’s at least conceivable that the club could improve for the future while minimizing the hit to their overall competitiveness next season if they make savvy additions to counterbalance the hypothetical loss of their star slugger.

The other side of that argument is simple: a Soto trade would almost assuredly downgrade the 2024 team. Even as the Padres stand to lose Snell and Hader in free agency, the club has several aging players on long-term deals. Players like Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Joe Musgrove, and especially Yu Darvish aren’t getting any younger, and there’s an argument to be made that sacrificing the present for the future to any degree is a mistake given the club’s aging core of expensive stars even as San Diego sports the sport’s 11th best farm system, per Fangraphs.

It’s also worth noting how the Padres lost in 2023. While their 82-80 record certainly left something to be desired, they posted the eighth-best run differential in baseball and the third-best figure in the National League behind only 100-win juggernauts in Atlanta and LA. The club’s Pythagorean record in 2023 was a far more palatable 92-70, with a similar 91-71 expected record according to BaseRuns. Championships aren’t won through projected standings, of course, but when looking ahead to 2024 it’s certainly fair to wonder if a very similar Padres team could achieve much better results with more fortune in extra innings (2-12) and one-run games (10-28). Holding onto Soto wouldn’t even necessarily preclude the club from dealing him later, as the Padres could always trade him at the 2024 deadline if they fall out of contention early in the year.

All that said, the dream scenario for Padres fans involves neither the club trading Soto nor him walking in free agency next offseason. Ideally, San Diego would surely prefer to extend their superstar and keep him in the outfield alongside Tatis for the next decade or longer. That may be easier said than done, of course, as Soto infamously rejected a $440MM extension offer from the Nationals prior to his trade to San Diego. The sort of megadeal that would be required to retain Soto figures to be hard to stomach for most clubs, but perhaps especially one like the Padres that, in addition to their desire to cut payroll this offseason, already has over $100MM on the books every year for the rest of the decade.

Unlikely as an extension may seem on paper, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has proven time and time again that his front office shouldn’t be counted out regarding major trades, free agent signings, and especially extensions if an opportunity to improve the club arises. Preller figures to weigh all these factors and more when deciding an approach regarding Soto this offseason. In his end-of-season press conference, Preller indicated that he plans to discuss a possible extension with Soto during the offseason but nonetheless did not rule out a trade of the young superstar this winter, leaving the door open for San Diego to take a variety of approaches over the next few months.

What path do MLBTR readers think Preller and the Padres should take regarding Soto this offseason? They could make every effort to extend him while looking to cut payroll elsewhere, trade him for pieces that could help extend the club’s current window of contention, or simply stick with him through his final year of arbitration and re-evaluate things at the trade deadline next summer. Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

What Should The Padres Do With Juan Soto?
Trade him this offseason. 57.83% (5,371 votes)
Extend him this offseason and cut payroll elsewhere. 23.68% (2,199 votes)
Reassess the situation over the summer. 18.50% (1,718 votes)
Total Votes: 9,288

MLBTR Poll: Division Series Winners

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All four Division Series get going tomorrow. The Wild Card series were mostly uncompetitive, with all four ending in a two-game sweep. We’re now on to best-of-five sets that can run through next Friday.

Rangers vs. Orioles

The second round begins in the afternoon when the Rangers head to Baltimore. Texas used Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi to dispatch the Rays, so they’ll go with left-hander Andrew Heaney in Game 1. He’ll be opposed by Baltimore’s breakout staff ace, righty Kyle Bradish.

Texas won 90 games behind a star-studded lineup. Anchored by Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis García, Mitch Garver and Jonah Heim, the Rangers finished third in the majors in runs. The pitching staff is more questionable, especially with Max Scherzer’s availability for the postseason still uncertain. Montgomery and Eovaldi make for a strong top two, but the bullpen has been a concern all season.

Baltimore lost its elite closer Félix Bautista to Tommy John surgery on the eve of the postseason. All-Star Yennier Cano steps into the ninth inning. The O’s sprinted to 101 wins this year, holding off the Rays to lock down an AL East title and the league’s top seed. Adley Rutschman, Rookie of the Year favorite Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander and Cedric Mullins headline a lineup that ranked seventh in run scoring. Bradish and rookie Grayson Rodriguez lead the rotation. It’s the first playoff appearance for most of a young but ultra-talented Baltimore group.

(poll link)

Who Will Win This ALDS?
Orioles 61.76% (3,124 votes)
Rangers 38.24% (1,934 votes)
Total Votes: 5,058

 

Twins vs. Astros

The second ALDS sends the AL Central winning Twins to Houston. Minnesota used Pablo López and Sonny Gray in their opening set. They’ll go with Bailey Ober in Game 1 opposite Justin Verlander.

Minnesota held the Blue Jays to one run in their opening series. They’ve had arguably the sport’s best starting rotation, ranking fourth in innings and trailing only the Padres in ERA. Their bullpen isn’t quite as deep, although flamethrowing Jhoan Duran is tough to handle in the ninth inning. While the lineup is built a little more on strong depth than star talent at the top, former first overall pick Royce Lewis raked at a .309/.372/.548 clip in 58 regular season games before launching homers in each of his first two career playoff at-bats against Toronto.

The Astros never quite clicked the way they had during their 106-win regular season last year. Yet even without ever fully running on all cylinders, the defending World Series champions won 90 games and swept Arizona in the final weekend to grab another AL West title. They’ll comfortably turn the ball to Verlander and Framber Valdez for the first two games to support a lineup with Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Jose Altuve firing on all cylinders and backed by Chas McCormick, Alex Bregman and rookie catcher/DH Yainer Diaz.

(poll link)

Who Will Win This ALDS?
Astros 59.70% (3,096 votes)
Twins 40.30% (2,090 votes)
Total Votes: 5,186

 

Phillies vs. Braves

Arguably the most compelling of the Division Series pits the defending NL pennant winners against the best regular season team of 2023. Philadelphia began what they hope to be a second straight run from Wild Card to the Fall Classic by breezing past the Marlins in Round One. They needed Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola to do so, so southpaw Ranger Suárez starts tomorrow. Atlanta counters with strikeout king Spencer Strider.

The Phils lean heavily on their excellent top three starters and a star-studded lineup. Bryce Harper has been characteristically stellar, while Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner have gotten rolling following slow starts to the season. While the bullpen has been a concern for Philadelphia in prior Octobers, it has held up very well this year. Even though they never threatened Atlanta for a run at the top of the division, the Phils look like one of the most complete teams remaining.

Their pitching staff needs to be up for a challenge. The Braves counter with the best lineup in baseball, a group that runs nine deep and handily outslugged the rest of the league. Atlanta was the only team to reach the 250-homer plateau this year. They hit 307. Matt Olson led the league with 54 longballs and 139 RBI, Ronald Acuña Jr. went 40-70, and everyone else in the starting lineup hit at least 17 homers. To the extent there’s a concern with this team, it’s the rotation beyond Strider. Max Fried battled a blister at the end of the regular season, leaving a little uncertainty headed into his Game 2 start, while Charlie Morton will miss the series due to finger inflammation.

(poll link)

Who Will Win This NLDS?
Braves 66.11% (3,583 votes)
Phillies 33.89% (1,837 votes)
Total Votes: 5,420

 

D-Backs vs. Dodgers

The Diamondbacks were the NL’s final playoff qualifier. Arizona knocked off Milwaukee in round one, with the sweep keeping them using #2 starter Merrill Kelly (who’d pitched in the regular season’s final weekend and was lined up for a potential Game 3). Instead, Kelly gets the nod tomorrow against Clayton Kershaw.

With NL Rookie of the Year lock Corbin Carroll leading off, Arizona has gotten strong work from Ketel Marte and underrated slugger Christian Walker. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. carries a hot streak into the postseason, while young catcher Gabriel Moreno had a great second half. Moreno left Game 2 against Milwaukee after being hit on the head with a backswing, but he’s expected to be full-go for this series (via Alden González of ESPN). The one-two of Kelly and Zac Gallen and a bullpen anchored by Paul Sewald and Kevin Ginkel gives the pitching staff strong talent at the top. The question is the depth — both at the bottom of the lineup and the back half of the starting rotation.

The Dodgers are legitimate World Series contenders yet again. They won 100 games for the fourth consecutive full season. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are going to finish in the top five in MVP balloting. J.D. Martinez is having his best season in a few years, while Max Muncy and rookie James Outman are significant power threats. The Dodgers have an elite collection of late-game arms, leading the majors with a 2.26 relief ERA in the second half behind Evan Phillips and Brusdar Graterol. It’s a relatively weak rotation for L.A., however. Kershaw’s velocity has been down as he pitches through shoulder discomfort, perhaps leaving rookie Bobby Miller as their most reliable starter. Dave Roberts figures to get to the bullpen early and often.

(poll link)

Who Will Win This NLDS?
Dodgers 68.05% (3,453 votes)
Diamondbacks 31.95% (1,621 votes)
Total Votes: 5,074

 

Poll: Who’s Going To Win The World Series?

By | at

Both the playoff field and the first-round matchups now have been set, so we can get on with deciding who’s going to be holding the Commissioner’s Trophy by the end of the World Series.  After 162 games (well, give or take a Marlins/Mets game that will now be scrapped entirely), the list of contenders has been narrowed to a dozen teams.

The Braves led all of baseball with 104 wins, and their spectacular lineup tied a Major League record with 307 home runs.  Leading the league almost across the board in significant offensive categories this season, Atlanta boasts MVP favorite Ronald Acuna Jr. as their top player, yet the incredible depth of the everyday lineup is a nightmare for opposing pitchers.  Injuries to Max Fried and Charlie Morton have left some questions about the readiness of the staff heading into the playoffs, but if Atlanta’s games start turning into slugfests, the Braves are more than well-equipped for that type of baseball.

Despite a huge swath of injuries to their pitching staff, the Dodgers still finished 100-62 and won the NL West.  It was the fifth time in the last six 162-game seasons that L.A. hit the 100-win threshold, and the Dodgers have now won 10 of the last 11 division titles.  All of that success, of course, has netted “only” one World Series title (in 2020) to date, and it will be up to Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman to keep carrying the offense while the somewhat makeshift pitching staff will try to produce quality innings.

The Orioles went from 110 losses in 2021 to 101 wins this season, winning the AL East for the first time since 2014.  Baltimore’s extensive rebuild led to a new wave of young talent (i.e. Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez) providing a quick impact, while roster holdovers and unexpected hidden gems like Ryan O’Hearn all kept producing for a well-rounded team.  The rotation is either a question mark or perhaps just underrated heading into October, and the O’s want to leave no doubt that their team is for real.

The Astros went into the final series of the season not even knowing if they’d be in the playoffs at all, yet Houston ended up with a first-round bye and their sixth AL West crown in seven seasons.  The defending World Series champs have weathered a lot of pitching injuries and a bit more inconsistency than usual from their lineup, yet if any team knows how to turn up the volume in the postseason, it’s the Astros.

These four teams will get first-round byes, while the other two division champions and the six wild-card teams will have to survive the best-of-three first round.  The AL Central champion Twins and the sixth-seeded Blue Jays will meet in the postseason for the first time since 1991, with Toronto trying to win its first playoff game since 2016 and Minnesota trying to end an unfathomable 0-18 record in playoff games dating back to 2004.  Both the Twins and Jays have relied on recipes of strong starting pitching, solid bullpen work and (especially in Toronto’s case) excellent defense, while the offense has been much more hit-and-miss for each club.  A low-scoring series wouldn’t be a surprise, making things a tossup even though the Twins have the home-field advantage.

The Rays and Rangers spent a good chunk of the season looking like they’d sail to division titles, yet the two clubs will now meet in the Wild Card Series.  Tampa Bay’s ever-deep farm system just kept churning out MLB-ready talent, allowing the Rays to stay steady and win 99 games despite an injury-depleted pitching staff.  Texas had greater issues managing pitching injuries and a very leaky bullpen, and though the Rangers still ended up with 90 wins and a playoff berth, the Rangers’ relief corps stands out as perhaps the biggest weak link of any postseason team.

The Brewers went 92-70 to book their fifth trip to the playoffs in six seasons, with three of those trips coming via the NL Central title.  With a 35-20 record since August 1, Milwaukee has been somewhat quietly marching towards the playoffs in top form, even if scoring runs is still at something of a premium for a team powered by its hurlers.  The Diamondbacks have just about the opposite problem, as they’ll head into the playoffs with a -15 run differential and a season-long problem with rotation depth.  But, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly can be a problem in a short series, and NL Rookie of the Year favorite Corbin Carroll will get his first taste of the postseason spotlight.

The Phillies and Marlins meet in an all-NL East edition of the Wild Card Series, with Miami holding a 7-6 head-to-head edge in regular-season play.  After falling short in last year’s World Series, the Phillies are looking to make another run through the entire bracket, setting up the dynamic of a seasoned, veteran squad against an upstart Marlins club who are in the playoffs following a full 162-game season for the first time since 2003.  A huge 33-13 record in one-run games helped Miami reach the postseason despite a -56 run differential — by contrast, Philadelphia was +81.

Looking at the list of twelve, who is your pick to win it all? (poll link for app users)

Who's Going To Win The World Series?
Braves 36.85% (6,832 votes)
Orioles 14.24% (2,640 votes)
Dodgers 9.32% (1,728 votes)
Phillies 8.53% (1,581 votes)
Astros 6.45% (1,195 votes)
Blue Jays 5.44% (1,009 votes)
Brewers 5.13% (952 votes)
Twins 4.92% (912 votes)
Rays 3.18% (589 votes)
Rangers 2.78% (515 votes)
Marlins 1.76% (327 votes)
Diamondbacks 1.41% (261 votes)
Total Votes: 18,541

MLBTR Poll: Josh Bell’s Player Option

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If one were to look simply at first baseman Josh Bell’s production since joining the Marlins back in August, it would appear to be a foregone conclusion that Bell will decline his $16.5MM player option for the 2024 season and test free agency. After all, Bell has posted strong numbers since being traded to Miami at the deadline: he’s slashed .266/.338/.474 with 11 home runs in just 51 games as a Marlin. Given the weak upcoming free agent class on the positional side, that sort of production would place him as one of the better hitters in the class, below top-of-the-class stars Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger but in the same conversation as the likes of Jeimer Candelario, Matt Chapman, and Jorge Soler.

Unfortunately for Bell, the decision isn’t that simple. The 30-year-old slugger has long been regarded among the streakiest hitters in the majors. Back in 2019, the switch-hitter appeared to be in the midst of a breakout season as he tore the cover off the ball for the Pirates in the first half, slashing an incredible .302/.376/.648 with 27 home runs en route to his first career All Star appearance. He returned in the second half having fallen back to Earth, however, and hit just .233/.351/.429 the rest of the way.

It was a similar story in 2022. Bell posted strong numbers with the Nationals for most of the season, slashing .301/.384/.493 in 437 trips to the plate. After being shipped to the Padres in a blockbuster deal alongside superstar Juan Soto, however, Bell struggled badly, posting a meager .192/.316/.271 slash line the rest of the way with a whopping 57.4% groundball rate. Those struggles prompted Bell to take a two-year, $33MM deal with the Guardians this past offseason with an opt-out after the 2023 campaign.

In 2023, Bell’s struggles came at the beginning of the season, as he hit .224/.330/.350 over the first two months of the season. While his final results in Cleveland were roughly league average (96 wRC+), they weren’t particularly close to the production Bell would have needed to show to justify leaving $16.5MM on the table this offseason to test the open market again. That said, his aforementioned hot stretch with the Marlins could have changed things for the 30-year-old, as it’s lifted his overall season slash line to an above-average .245/.325/.416. That figure improves to .256/.322/.449 in 96 games since the start of June, putting him in the same ballpark as his .259/.347/.453 career batting line.

While it’s unlikely that Bell would top his $16.5MM option by measure of AAV, nineteen hitters (including Bell himself) received a guarantee of $17MM or more last offseason. It’s not difficult to imagine Bell receiving more in free agency that Brandon Drury (two years, $17MM) or Justin Turner (two years, $21.7MM) did from the Angels and Red Sox last year. The aforementioned scarcity of quality hitters on the free agent market this coming offseason could also help Bell, should he decide to test the open market.

While first base is one of the better-populated positions this offseason, with players like Turner, Brandon Belt, and Garrett Cooper set to hit the open market after posting solid season, Bell has youth on his side relative to those veterans. He’ll play next season at age-31; only Ohtani, Bellinger, Candelario and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. have posted above average offensive seasons among free agents younger than Bell, though Chapman, Rhys Hoskins and Teoscar Hernandez will also have their age-31 campaigns in 2024.

Of course, things aren’t completely set in stone yet, even as the regular season wraps this weekend. With the Marlins favored to make the postseason, it’s possible Bell finds himself at the center of a surprise push deep into the postseason for Miami and posts big enough postseason numbers to impact his impending decision, which will come shortly after the World Series.

What do MLBTR readers think? If you were in Bell’s shoes, would you exercise your player option for next season and hope for a stronger platform season in 2024, or would you decline the option in search of a higher total guarantee on the open market?

Should Josh Bell Decline His $16.5MM Player Option?
No, Bell should exercise his option and stay with the Marlins. 72.74% (2,330 votes)
Yes, Bell should test free agency this offseason. 27.26% (873 votes)
Total Votes: 3,203

(poll link for app users)

Poll: Aaron Boone’s Future

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Aaron Boone’s future with the Yankees has been a talking point among Yankees fans throughout the season. He’s wrapping up his sixth season as the team’s manager and is signed through the 2024 campaign — with a club option for the 2025 season. The Yanks have had plenty of regular-season success under Boone, including a pair of 100-win seasons (100 and 103) in 2018-19 and a 99-win campaign just last year.

However, the 2023 season will be the first under Boone in which the Yankees don’t reach the postseason. They’ve gone to the ALCS twice under his leadership but haven’t advanced to the World Series.

A string of five consecutive postseason appearances followed by one miss generally wouldn’t be viewed as grounds for a potential managerial change in most markets, but the Yankees perennially operate on one of the sport’s largest payrolls and have higher expectations than just about any club in the sport. Add in the possibility that this could be the team’s first sub-.500 season way back in 1992 — a stunning statistic in and of itself — and the calls for a managerial change among the fan base only become louder.

If a change is made, it seems likely it’ll be the result of a decision directly from ownership. SNY’s Andy Martino reported late last month that the only way Boone would be ousted would be if managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner overruled general manager Brian Cashman on a managerial decision — which he has not done before. Boone told Yankees beat writers within the past hour that he has not yet been definitively told whether he’ll return for the 2024 season or not (link via The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner). Any such decision seems unlikely to come prior to the end of the regular season, though USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote this weekend that the club now expects to retain Boone.

On the one hand, it’d be unfair to lay the blame squarely at Boone’s feet, as is the case with any manager and a team that underperforms expectations. Boone has been hamstrung by significant injuries to Carlos Rodon, Frankie Montas, Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Lou Trivino, among others, on the pitching side of things. Reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge spent nearly two months on the injured list this summer, while first baseman Anthony Rizzo’s season will finish at 99 games due to concussion issues and Jose Trevino’s season will end at just 55 games due to wrist surgery. The club also entered the season with several question marks around the roster, most notably in left field, where they’ve cycled through a carousel of journeyman options including Jake Bauers, Willie Calhoun and Billy McKinney.

On the other, those injury troubles and some roster shortcomings don’t entirely absolve Boone of any and all blame, of course. All managers deal with injuries to star players, and every club has its share of roster imperfections to navigate. Boone is still the one filling out the lineup card and pulling the strings with regard to bullpen and bench decisions. The composition of the team’s coaching staff, any sloppy play or questionable effort, and any other number of tougher-to-quantify shortcomings tend to fall at a manager’s feet as well.

The Yankees have only had three managers in the past 28 years. Joe Torre helmed the club from 1996 through 2007, capturing four World Series titles and another pair of AL pennants along the way. Torre gave way to Joe Girardi, who skippered the club from 2008-17. Girardi won a World Series title himself in 2009.

Boone made the playoffs in each of his first five seasons on the job but will fall short in 2023. That in and of itself isn’t necessarily grounds for an immediate dismissal in the Bronx; Girardi’s Yankees missed the playoffs entirely in three of his final five seasons. Boone hasn’t advanced to a World Series in any of his six seasons in the manager’s chair, though his predecessor also missed the World Series in his final eight seasons on the job.

At the same time, that increasingly lengthy layoff from appearing in a Fall Classic surely leads to mounting frustration both among fans and the team’s ownership. The lowest payroll the Yankees have had relative to the rest of the league since their last World Series appearance came in 2018, when they opened the season with the sixth-largest mark in baseball. They’ve ranked higher than that every year since 2009 — including seven seasons with the game’s second-largest payroll and four with the largest. That level of investment inherently comes with lofty expectations, and they’re now up to 14 seasons without a World Series appearance — let alone a title.

Time will tell whether Boone returns for a seventh season at the helm. If he does, with no additional guaranteed years on his contract beyond the ’24 season, his job status will be a hot-button issue for the Yankees throughout the upcoming season (even more so than it is now).

It’s generally clear where the majority of Yankees fans land on this issue, but let’s open it up for MLBTR readers to weigh in, asking both if the Yankees should move on and whether they actually will (which, of course, are two very different questions):

*Will* the Yankees fire manager Aaron Boone?
No 57.48% (5,261 votes)
Yes 42.52% (3,892 votes)
Total Votes: 9,153

 

*Should* the Yankees fire manager Aaron Boone?
Yes 58.93% (5,016 votes)
No 41.07% (3,496 votes)
Total Votes: 8,512

MLBTR Poll: Michael Wacha’s Option

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Among last winter’s notable free agents, few remained unsigned as long as Michael Wacha. The veteran right-hander was on the market until mid-February. He eventually inked a four-year, $26MM guarantee to join the Padres, although the contract structure was rather complex.

Wacha was guaranteed $7.5MM for this season between his salary and a signing bonus. (He subsequently earned an additional $500K for starting 20 games.) This winter, the Padres will have to decide whether to trigger successive $16MM options — essentially a two-year, $32MM pact. If the Friars decline, Wacha would have a $6.5MM player option for next season (with two additional $6MM player options thereafter). If neither side exercises its end of the option, he’d return to free agency.

The 32-year-old’s production is quite similar to last year’s work. After posting a 3.32 ERA in 23 starts for the Red Sox a year ago, he’s allowed 3.44 earned runs per nine over 22 appearances this season. As was the case last season, estimators like FIP (4.02) and SIERA (4.49) are less enthused than his ERA would suggest. That reflects fine but unexceptional strikeout and walk marks. Wacha’s 22.2% strikeout percentage and 8.2% walk rate are right in line with the respective 22.1% and 7.9% league averages for starting pitchers.

Last season, Wacha had slightly lower than average strikeout and walk figures. His fastball speed has dipped from 93 MPH to 91.8 MPH, though he’s compensated by leaning a little more on his cutter and changeup. His overall swinging-strike rate is up one percentage point.

Those are minor changes. In aggregate, Wacha looks largely the same as he did a season ago. The market didn’t seem to materialize the way he’d anticipated last winter, leading to his extended free agent stay. It’s possible teams are more inclined to buy into Wacha’s stronger bottom line results after a second sub-3.50 ERA showing, though his production has tailed off down the stretch.

He carried a 2.84 ERA over 85 2/3 innings into the All-Star Break. He’s allowing just under five earned runs per nine in 34 2/3 frames in the second half. Wacha’s strikeout and ground-ball rates have improved as the season has gone on, but he has paired that with a few more walks of late. His production also tailed off in the second half of the 2022 campaign, when he posted a 4.11 ERA after running a 2.69 mark through the break.

The Padres’ call on a two-year, $32MM option looks as if it could go either way. There were a handful of veteran pitchers who signed in that range last winter. Nathan Eovaldi got $34MM over two seasons from the Rangers, who also surrendered a draft choice after he declined a qualifying offer. Eovaldi had pitched to a 3.80 ERA over 291 2/3 innings in the preceding two seasons but had superior strikeout and walk marks to Wacha.

The Giants inked Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea to matching two-year, $25MM guarantees with an opt-out after the first season. Stripling is perhaps the closest comparison point to Wacha, as he was coming off a 3.01 ERA in his platform season despite a modest 20.7% strikeout rate. As with Wacha, Stripling’s career track record has been inconsistent. Manaea was more of a rebound flier, as he’d had a dismal second half preceding his free agent trip.

José Quintana (two years, $26MM) and Tyler Anderson (three years, $39MM after rejecting a qualifying offer) each had a sub-3.00 ERA in their platform seasons. Both had mixed results in the few years leading up to 2022 and were older than Wacha is now. They each showed strong command last season with roughly average swing-and-miss rates and low-90s velocity.

Wacha fits in that category of back-end starter, which generally received around $12-13MM annually over two or three years last winter. Wacha’s $16MM club options are a bit above that, but the player option values are well below it. If the Padres decline their end, Wacha is very likely to opt out and test free agency. He at least shouldn’t have any issue topping the respective $17MM and $19MM two-year guarantees secured by Jordan Lyles and Drew Smyly last offseason.

The Padres are one of the league’s higher-spending franchises and already facing ample uncertainty in their rotation. Blake Snell is going to be a free agent. Seth Lugo is almost certainly going to decline a player option and test the market. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish are the only veteran starters guaranteed to be in next year’s rotation; both ended this season on the injured list. Nick Martinez could opt out of his own deal if the Friars decline a two-year, $32MM extension.

None of the other pitchers to log any kind of rotation time for San Diego are clear answers. Ryan Weathers was traded away at the deadline. Rich Hill has been knocked around and seems likely to sign elsewhere as a free agent. Pedro Avila and Matt Waldron have ERA’s around 6.00 when working as starters. If the Padres don’t retain Wacha, they’ll likely need to add one or two similar pitchers in free agency or trade.

Is it worthwhile for the Padres to preserve some stability by locking Wacha back in at the start of the offseason, even if the annual salary is a bit beyond what he’d likely receive on the open market? Would they be better served preserving that flexibility going into the winter as they sort through other rotation possibilities?

(poll link for app users)

How Will Michael Wacha's Option Be Resolved?
Padres exercise their end. 43.35% (1,255 votes)
Both sides decline; Wacha hits free agency. 39.41% (1,141 votes)
Padres decline; Wacha opts in. 17.24% (499 votes)
Total Votes: 2,895

 

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

MLBTR Poll: The Crowded NL Wild Card Race

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Despite Fangraphs’ Playoff Odds giving Atlanta (100%), Los Angeles (100%), Milwaukee (98.7%), Philadelphia (96.3%), and Chicago (78%) better than 75% odds of making the playoffs, play in the National League closed this evening with the NL Wild Card race looking as tight as ever thanks to the third and final spot.

Four teams sport winning percentages of .511, putting all of them in an effective tie for the third Wild Card spot behind the Phillies and Cubs. With less than a month to go in the schedule, it’s increasingly likely that only one of Arizona, Cincinnati, Miami, and San Francisco will join the aforementioned five clubs in the postseason this year. Let’s take a look at each of those four clubs, as things stand for them headed into the stretch run:

San Francisco Giants, 70-67 (48.9% playoff odds)

The Giants established themselves as contenders back in June with a fantastic 18-8 record that month and have managed to stay within spitting distance of a playoff spot ever since. Unfortunately for San Francisco, that excellent June is the last month the club posted a winning record. The club has gone just 24-31 since the beginning of July, with their playoff odds dropping from 69.2% down to 47.8% during that stretch. Injuries to key players like Michael Conforto and Anthony DeSclafani have left the club playing at less than full strength, but a bigger problem for the club is the rapidly declining offense: since July 1, the club’s 77 wRC+ is the second worst figure in the majors ahead of only the Rockies.

On the other hand, the club sports a strong if unconventional pitching staff highlighted by ace Logan Webb, veteran Alex Cobb, rookie Kyle Harrison, and closer Camilo Doval that is further bolstered by the excellent defense provided by rookie catcher Patrick Bailey. With that solid run prevention group, it’s easy to see how the Giants could make the playoffs if key offensive contributors like Joc Pederson, Lamonte Wade Jr. and Thairo Estrada can return to the success they showed earlier in the season. Outside of seven games against the Dodgers, San Francisco’s remaining schedule is fairly soft, which should help them in their pursuit of the final NL playoff spot.

Arizona Diamondbacks, 70-67 (33.3% playoff odds)

A surprise early season contender, the Diamondbacks dominated the NL West throughout the first half, holding sole possession of first place in their division as late into the season as July 8 thanks to a strong offensive core of Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Christian Walker along with a strong pair of starters at the top of their rotation in righties Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Unfortunately for Arizona, their hold on the division lead would vanish over the next month as the club posted a 5-21 record over their next 26 games that was nothing short of disastrous. Despite the trade deadline coming directly in the middle of that awful stretch, Arizona’s front office added outfielder Tommy Pham and closer Paul Sewald to the floundering club, and the team has responded by going 13-7 since their skid came to an end.

With all of the club’s key players healthy headed into the stretch run, the Diamondbacks are perhaps the biggest question mark in this race. Was their brutal month of play, where they looked like one of the worst teams in baseball, simply a fluke? Or was it the beginning of the end for an underdog team projected for a 78-84 record when the season began? With 12 of their final 25 games coming against teams with a record of .500 or better, Arizona won’t have a particularly easy schedule to make use of as they try to secure their first playoff berth since 2017.

Miami Marlins, 70-67 (26.5% playoff odds)

The Marlins’ 2023 campaign has been a strange one. Earlier in the year, the club was carried by the bats of Luis Arraez and Jorge Soler and a historic record in one-run games. Much like the last two teams discussed, the months of July and August were difficult for Miami, as the club posted a record of just 19-32 while Soler (.697 OPS in July) and Arraez (.580 OPS in August) slumped badly. Fortunately, the club received offensive reinforcements at the trade deadline in the form of Jake Burger and Josh Bell, both of whom have posted strong results since joining the Marlins. What’s more, Alcantara has looked more like himself of late, with a 3.04 ERA in his last 77 innings of work.

While Soler hasn’t played in recent days due to injury, the offense is in a good place thanks to the contributions of Burger and Bell, while the rotation led by Alcantara, Eury Perez, Jesus Luzardo, and Edward Cabrera has been characteristically excellent. Perhaps Miami’s biggest obstacle in returning to the postseason for the first time since 2020 is the schedule: of the club’s final 25 games, the Marlins will face the Brewers, Dodgers, Braves and Phillies in sixteen of them.

Cincinnati Reds, 71-68 (16% playoff odds)

The Reds are perhaps the most surprising team of this quartet. The club’s success this season has been fueled almost entirely by a youth movement that began early in the season. While shortstop Elly De La Cruz hasn’t quite been the offensive force he was expected to be in his rookie season, infielder Matt McLain and starter Andrew Abbott have been nothing short of sensational. What’s more, other youngsters like Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Brandon Williamson have contributed in significant ways, to say nothing of contributions from more established players like TJ Friedl, Hunter Greene, Joey Votto, and Alexis Diaz.

While the Reds slumped badly to a 10-17 record in August, only six of the club’s final 23 games are against clubs with a record better than .500, given them plenty of opportunity to go on a run. Unfortunately for Cincinnati, between a rash of injuries and an outbreak of COVID-19, the Reds have a whopping 16 players on the injured list, including key players like Greene, McLain, Williamson, and Votto. With a pair of the club’s biggest bats and most reliable rotation arms out of commission for the foreseeable future, the Reds’ outlook is far hazier than it otherwise may have been.

———————

How does the readership of MLBTR think the race for the final NL Wild Card will shake out over the next month? Will one of the NL West clubs hold on to claim the spot that for much of the season they looked to be a shoo-in for? Will the Marlins overcome their brutal September schedule to emerge victorious? Or can the Reds navigate a wave of injuries to squeak into the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2013?

(poll link for app users)

Which Team Will Make The Playoffs?
San Francisco Giants 30.11% (1,027 votes)
Arizona Diamondbacks 24.89% (849 votes)
Cincinnati Reds 22.69% (774 votes)
Miami Marlins 12.61% (430 votes)
More than one; one of the other five will miss the playoffs. 9.70% (331 votes)
Total Votes: 3,411
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