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Poll: Which Team Will Sign Yu Darvish?

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Two-plus months into what has been an abnormal MLB offseason, right-hander Yu Darvish remains one of several high-profile players without a contract. In general, the open market hasn’t been kind to rotation pieces this winter, as righty Tyler Chatwood’s fairly modest deal with the Cubs (three years, $38MM) ranks as the largest guarantee given to a starter thus far. He signed that pact Dec. 7, and it seemed unthinkable then that every one of the elite free agent starters – Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn – would still be available over a month later. And yet, all are without teams on Jan. 14.

Yu Darvish

Darvish is likely the best of the bunch, someone MLBTR predicted would land a six-year, $160MM contract entering the offseason, and has drawn the most headlines of the group this winter. Earlier this week, the 31-year-old top-of-the-rotation arm was reportedly deciding among six teams – the Rangers and Dodgers (his two previous employers) as well as the Yankees, Twins, Cubs and Astros. Houston is probably out of the race after acquiring righty Gerrit Cole from the Pirates on Saturday, thus giving the reigning World Series champions yet another quality starter in a rotation packed with them.

The Yankees and Twins were also among teams with interest in Cole this offseason, though the former isn’t necessarily in dire need of help in their rotation. With Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray, CC Sabathia and Jordan Montgomery comprising the Yankees’ starting quintet, general manager Brian Cashman likely doesn’t feel an urgency to splurge on anyone via free agency or trade. The Yankees don’t seem to be in position to reel in Darvish anyway, of course, as their goal of staying under the $197MM competitive balance tax threshold in 2018 looks like a major roadblock in this situation. Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link) estimates that the Yankees have already committed around $167MM to 15 players, which makes a Darvish signing a long shot even if he inks a deal for significantly less than our roughly $27MM-per-year forecast. In an ideal world for the Yankees, they’d be able to dump a sizable portion of reserve outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury’s $68.4MM on someone to create spending room, but that’s a tall order.

Unlike the Yankees, both the Twins and Rangers clearly need to bolster their rotations prior to the upcoming season. Minnesota managed its first playoff berth since 2010 last year, but it did so with little in the way of answers beyond Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios in its starting staff. And now, with no money on the books past the 2019 season, the small-market Twins are in position to make a splash. Their front office also happens to include GM Thad Levine, who was with Darvish in Texas from 2012-16.

Darvish still has an affinity for the Rangers, with whom he has spent nearly all of his career, but they don’t seem to have the payroll wiggle room to make a reunion happen. Moreover, the Rangers may be the weakest of the teams pursuing Darvish, considering they won 78 games last year while the others made the playoffs. Still, as one of the clubs remaining in the race for Darvish’s services, we shouldn’t dismiss the Rangers outright. Needless to say, Darvish would be a far more exciting addition than Doug Fister, Mike Minor and Matt Moore, all of whom have joined the Rangers’ still-shaky rotation this winter.

Shifting to the National League, the Cubs seem bent on reeling in another established starter – whether it’s Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb or a trade piece (Chris Archer?) – to join Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, Jon Lester and Chatwood. The fact that Chicago has the financial means and desire to upgrade its rotation in a notable way could make the team the favorite for Darvish on paper. The Dodgers have also been known for their financial might, but like the Yankees, tax concerns have helped shape their winter thus far. It has been a quiet couple months for the reigning NL champs, whose only impact newcomers are inexpensive relievers. The Dodgers have committed approximately $186MM to their 2018 roster, per Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource, making a Darvish reunion hard to envision.

Based on everything we know, the Twins and Cubs may be the best bets to win the Darvish derby. However, we’re still not going to rule out any of the other reported suitors or a mystery team from nabbing him. Where do you expect him to pitch in 2018?

(Poll link for App users)

Who Will Sign Yu Darvish?
Cubs 26.12% (7,483 votes)
Yankees 18.73% (5,366 votes)
Twins 17.67% (5,062 votes)
Someone else 15.95% (4,571 votes)
Rangers 12.91% (3,698 votes)
Dodgers 8.63% (2,474 votes)
Total Votes: 28,654

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Which Of These Players Is Most Likely To Be Traded?

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We’ve reached January, and the free agent market is still lagging in a big way. The top free agents available seemingly haven’t showed a willingness to lower their asking prices, and with spring training less than two months out, teams may feel a need to complete their offseason shopping lists sooner than later. In some cases, this may cause teams to make stronger pushes for some candidates on the trade market.

There have certainly been some large scale trades so far this offseason. High-end players such as Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Evan Longoria, Ian Kinsler and Stephen Piscotty have changed hands already, and there are still plenty of practical matches left between MLB teams. We’ve detailed many of these in the 2017-2018 installment of our “Looking For A Match” series; the players featured in those articles are listed below, with our noted potential fits listed in parentheses.

  • Billy Hamilton, Reds CF (Giants, Dodgers, Royals): Hamilton’s talents as a burner on the basepaths and an elite defender in center field are well-known throughout MLB circles, but in truth, that’s about where his usefulness ends. His .299 OBP was the 11th-lowest among qualified hitters in 2017; that number is about consistent with his career mark. The Giants seem to have shown a strong interest in Hamilton, but Reds owner Bob Castellini’s recently-reported hesitancy to part with the speedster could gum up trade negotiations. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A Billy Hamilton Trade]
  • Brad Hand, Padres LHRP (Astros, Dodgers, Cardinals, Twins, Braves): Though our evaluation of Hand’s trade market also included the Rays and Rockies, those teams seem like less likely suitors at this point in the offseason; the former decreased their likelihood of contention by shipping Longoria to San Francisco, while the latter has signed three expensive relief pitchers to pad their bullpen. Hand is one of the elite relief pitchers in all of baseball, and he’s certainly one of the best (if not the undisputed best) bullpen options on the trade market. Of course, the caveat is that it would also require a significant prospect haul to convince San Diego to move him. The lefty has two years of team control remaining, and MLBTR projects him to cost just $3.8MM in 2018. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A Brad Hand Trade]
  • Jose Abreu, White Sox 1B (Astros, Indians, Rangers, Red Sox, Rockies): Though the Cuba native has been a mainstay in the White Sox’ lineup since his MLB debut in 2014, his club is unlikely to contend for a pennant before he reaches free agency after the 2019 season. MLBTR’s arbitration projections have him pegged for a $17.9MM salary in 2018, but his expected offensive output makes him well worth that price tag. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A Jose Abreu Trade]
  • Avisail Garcia, White Sox OF (Blue Jays, Indians, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Giants, Rangers): Like Abreu, Garcia is a South Sider with two years of team control remaining. However, he comes with a lot more risk; Garcia had played below replacement level over the course of his career prior to a breakout this past season. Still, there are many teams who would benefit from adding a lefty-masher to their outfield corps, and his projected 2018 salary is a reasonable $6.7MM. [LINK: Looking For A Match In An Avisail Garcia Trade]
  • Raisel Iglesias, Reds RHRP (Nationals, Dodgers, Cardinals, Brewers, Twins, Astros): With three full seasons of team control remaining, Iglesias could prove a valuable long-term asset to either a rebuilding club or a current contender. He’s managed to strike out 10.43 batters per nine innings over the course of his career as a reliever while posting a sterling 2.29 ERA. The Twins have reportedly shown interest in Iglesias this winter, though that was nearly two months ago; there haven’t been any new developments in that story since then. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A Raisel Iglesias Trade]
  • J.T. Realmuto, Marlins C (Nationals, Rockies, Diamondbacks): Unlike the other players on this list, Realmuto has gone so far as to request a trade from his current team. While that alone certainly isn’t enough to facilitate a trade, some have taken the stance that Miami ought to trade their catcher (along with fellow Marlin Christian Yelich) at his peak value. Realmuto has accrued more than 7 WAR over the past two seasons alone, but the Marlins don’t feel compelled to trade him unless they’re overwhelmed by an offer. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A J.T. Realmuto Trade]
  • Manny Machado, Orioles 3B (Cardinals, Yankees, Angels, Rockies, Nationals): Rumors surrounding Baltimore’s prized infielder have cooled off a bit recently, but the Orioles could still be prompted to move him for the right offer. They’re reportedly seeking two talented starting pitchers who are controllable for the long term, however, which seems like a sky-high asking price for a player with just one year of team control remaining. Of course, the O’s probably wouldn’t restrict a return to just rotation options. Machado is projected to earn a $17.3MM salary in his final season before hitting the free agent market. [LINK: Trading Manny Machado]

We’ll open this subject up to reader opinions at this point. Which of the trade candidates we’ve profiled do you think is most likely to be traded before the 2018 season begins? (Link for app users)

Which Of These Players Is Most Likely To Be Traded?
J.T. Realmuto 26.14% (5,566 votes)
Billy Hamilton 19.43% (4,137 votes)
Manny Machado 13.84% (2,947 votes)
Brad Hand 13.81% (2,941 votes)
It's more likely that none of these players will be traded 9.31% (1,982 votes)
Jose Abreu 8.58% (1,827 votes)
Avisail Garcia 5.78% (1,231 votes)
Raisel Iglesias 3.13% (666 votes)
Total Votes: 21,297

MLBTR Poll: Best 3-Year Signing To Date

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Remarkably, no free agents have secured MLB guarantees of four or more years to this point, as the MLBTR 2017-18 free agent tracker shows. Hyun-soo Kim did get that length of deal to return to his native Korea, and several players picked up vesting options for fourth seasons, but it’s still a notable aspect of this winter’s player market.

That said, several players have secured promises for at least three campaigns, some of which include hefty average annual values. Relievers have dominated the early proceedings, but two position players and two pitchers who are expected to work as starters are among those to secure the largest contracts to date.

Keeping our field to the group of players who’ve secured three-year pacts, which do you think was the wisest signing, all things considered?

  • Carlos Santana, 1B, Phillies ($60MM with club option): While most sluggers remain uncommitted entering 2018, Santana was pursued by multiple teams and ended up as a surprise first splash from the Phils’ front office. This was a competitive bidding situation for an accomplished hitter who is limited to playing first base, but there’s an argument to be made that the team has added a cornerstone piece at a palatable price and manageable term of commitment.
  • Wade Davis, RP, Rockies ($52MM with vesting player option): While we had guessed that Davis could take down four years, he took a higher annual value over a slightly shorter term. The deal also leaves Davis with some protection at the back end, as he’ll have a very achievable vesting player option for the 2021 campaign. It’s possible to highlight the record-setting AAV here, but the Rox also no doubt feel pleased that they got the open market’s best closer at a lower overall guarantee than that secured by Mark Melancon last winter.
  • Tyler Chatwood, SP, Cubs ($38MM): Here at MLBTR, we thought we might be a bit bullish on Chatty when we predicted he’d secure a three-year guarantee. It turned out we were extremely light on the dollars, as he ended up nearly doubling our best guess. Teams obviously were enamored of his stuff and youth; if he can thrive while pitching full-time away from Coors Field, perhaps the Cubs may yet have a bargain.
  • Zack Cozart, SS/3B, Angels ($38MM): Year after year, Cozart has rated among the best defenders in baseball. And more recently, he has shown the bat to match, never more than in a highly productive 2017 campaign. But there just has never been adequate demand at short to drive his market. Enter the Angels, who intend to utilize Cozart at third base, where he’ll pair with the incomparable Andrelton Simmons and new second baseman Ian Kinsler to form an incredibly talented trio of defensive infielders.
  • Mike Minor, SP/RP, Rangers ($28MM): Though he rebounded as a reliever in 2017, Minor has in the past been quite a high-quality starter. It seems that the Rangers’ willingness to utilize him in that role may have been a separator to allow the team to land Minor. His health remains a question, but if Minor can return to anything like his former form in the rotation he’d deliver huge value on the contract.
  • Jake McGee, RP, Rockies ($27MM with vesting option): We expected the power lefty to secure a three-year deal, but he flew past our best guess ($18MM) at the guarantee. Still, it’s worth remembering that McGee succeeded in baseball’s most difficult pitching environment last year, so he has already shown the Rox what he can do at altitude. And he regained the velocity he had lost in his first year in Colorado, though he still is working at about two mph less than he did in his best days with the Rays.
  • Bryan Shaw, RP, Rockies ($27MM with vesting option): Here again, an accomplished reliever secured a larger guarantee than we foresaw (in his case, $21MM). Shaw’s recent track record is of the sort that invites the question: does his durability through heavy use prove that he’s a workhorse, or suggest he could be carrying some worn-out parts that might be prone to breaking? Colorado is betting on the former. The 30-year-old has been steadily effective and has always answered the call to this point in his career.

(Link for app users.)

Best 3-year free agent signing to date?
Zack Cozart - Angels 33.30% (5,489 votes)
Carlos Santana - Phillies 26.38% (4,349 votes)
Tyler Chatwood - Cubs 16.97% (2,797 votes)
Wade Davis - Rockies 12.66% (2,087 votes)
Mike Minor - Rangers 5.93% (978 votes)
Bryan Shaw - Rockies 3.37% (555 votes)
Jake McGee - Rockies 1.40% (230 votes)
Total Votes: 16,485

Poll: What’s Next For The Pirates?

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As those who paid attention to the MLB offseason a year ago remember, Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen was among the most popular figures in the rumor mill. At the time, the Pittsburgh icon was coming off a career-worst season both offensively and defensively, which surely hindered the team in its efforts to garner suitable offers for him. Ultimately, the Pirates retained McCutchen and enjoyed a bounce-back year from him at the plate (.279/.363/.486 with 28 home runs in 650 PAs). While McCutchen struggled again in the grass, where he posted minus-14 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-4.5 Ultimate Zone Rating, the onetime National League MVP nonetheless ranked a solid 17th among outfielders in fWAR (3.7).

Andrew McCutchen

This winter, on the heels of a rebound year, rumors regarding McCutchen haven’t been nearly as abundant. The Giants are the only known team with interest in the 31-year-old, yet they don’t seem to view him as a priority. Still, although nothing looks imminent on the McCutchen front, it’s possible the five-time All-Star has played his last game with the Pirates – who drafted him 11th overall in 2005.

With McCutchen entering a contract year in 2018, in which he’ll make $14.75MM, general manager Neal Huntington acknowledged this month that the player’s time in Pittsburgh may be winding down. Trading McCutchen prior to the season wouldn’t seem to make much sense if the Pirates plan to compete next season and avoid a third straight non-playoff campaign, but a return to prominence may be a long shot.

With McCutchen in the fold, the Pirates are projected to start 2018 with a payroll of just under $104MM. That would represent a season-opening high for owner Bob Nutting, whose rosters haven’t begun any campaign above the $100MM mark since he took the helm of the franchise in 2007. The Pirates’ low-spending ways may make an offseason McCutchen trade all the more likely, though he’s not the only notable veteran they could jettison to help cut costs. Infielder Josh Harrison, who will make $10MM in his third-last year of team control next season, has drawn widespread trade interest and might find himself in the uniform of the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays or another club by the springtime.

Unlike McCutchen and Harrison – two useful but not great assets –  right-hander Gerrit Cole would bring back a significant return in a trade. Not only is the flamethrowing 27-year-old a bona fide No. 2/3 starter, but he’s due a relatively modest $7.5MM in 2018. Considering Cole’s a Scott Boras client, the likelihood of him eschewing free agency in favor of a long-term extension with the Pirates seems low. That could increase their urgency to trade Cole, who’s going into his penultimate year of team control.

No doubt cognizant of the Boras factor, Huntington was reportedly “motivated” to part with Cole earlier this month. It appeared then that Cole would join the Yankees, but talks between them and the Pirates subsequently lost momentum. Even if Pittsburgh and New York don’t eventually find common ground, though, there are plenty of other teams that would benefit from a Cole addition – and the Bucs have engaged with some of those clubs.

At times, the 2017 portion of the offseason was a slow-moving bore, but the payoff is that there will be copious trades and signings in the New Year. With enticing trade chips in McCutchen, Harrison and Cole, the Pirates may often find themselves at the center of the action leading up to April. If you were calling the shots for the club, how would you approach the next couple months?

(poll link for app users)

What should the Pirates do this winter?
Trade more than one 56.99% (8,927 votes)
Keep all three and reassess during the season 21.87% (3,426 votes)
Trade Cole 10.09% (1,581 votes)
Trade McCutchen 7.81% (1,223 votes)
Trade Harrison 3.24% (507 votes)
Total Votes: 15,664

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Who Will Sign Jake Arrieta?

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Jake Arrieta is one of four major free agent starting pitchers who seems destined to sign in the new year.  Arrieta’s agent, Scott Boras, has a long history of waiting out the market.  Here’s a list of free agent contracts signed by Boras clients in the last decade in January, February, or March:

Keep in mind, however, that not all of these contracts met expectations.  We ranked Arrieta fourth on our list, with a prediction of four years, $100MM that I’m guessing Boras would have said was way low.  I think Arrieta can still get a contract in that range.  But from which team?

The Cubs seem more interested in Yu Darvish than in bringing Arrieta back, but it’s reasonable to keep them in the mix for Jake.  Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports has linked the Nationals to Arrieta, and that’s certainly a team that was involved on many of the above-listed Boras free agents.  A source speaking to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post called the team’s interest in Arrieta “tepid.”  Heyman has also named the Phillies, though Inquirer beat writer Matt Gelb doesn’t see that as likely either.  The Astros, Blue Jays, Rockies, Rangers, Brewers, Twins, and Cardinals have been linked as well.  Keep in mind that teams that might have shied away from huge November/December demands for Arrieta could re-enter the picture if the price gets more realistic in the new year.  Another factor is draft pick compensation.  For more info on that, check out my post about which draft picks each team would lose by signing a qualified free agent like Arrieta.

With that, I throw it out to you:

(Poll link for app users)

Which team will sign Jake Arrieta?
Cubs 15.25% (3,926 votes)
The Field 13.62% (3,506 votes)
Rangers 12.27% (3,158 votes)
Brewers 10.66% (2,745 votes)
Cardinals 10.44% (2,687 votes)
Phillies 10.15% (2,613 votes)
Nationals 8.93% (2,300 votes)
Astros 5.97% (1,537 votes)
Twins 5.49% (1,414 votes)
Blue Jays 4.93% (1,269 votes)
Rockies 2.30% (593 votes)
Total Votes: 25,748

Poll: “Pillow” Contracts

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It’s nearly January, and the ten best players on this winter’s free agent market according to MLBTR haven’t been signed (Masahiro Tanaka opted in to the remaining three years on his contract with the Yankees, so he never reached free agency). With teams being incredibly patient this year, some in the industry have suggested that one or more of these players could be willing to sign one-year “pillow contracts” at high average annual values, if they can’t find a long-term deal close enough to their current asking prices.

The idea of a pillow contract isn’t altogether farfetched. It’s not uncommon for smaller name free agents to accept one year deals in order to reestablish value after an injury-plagued (or otherwise subpar) season. Though it’s a bit less common for prominent healthy players to do this, there’s some precedent. Yoenis Cespedes’ three-year, $75MM deal with the Mets back during the 2015-2016 offseason was in some sense a pillow contract; the deal paid him $27.5MM over the first year, with an opt out the following offseason. It worked out well for Cespedes; he ultimately exercised the opt-out and agreed to a more lucrative four-year, $110MM pact (again with the Mets) the following winter.

Such contracts could also act as a failsafe should the top free agents find themselves unable to achieve their desired guarantees by the time February draws to a close. After all, one need not look any further than Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales for a cautionary tale about players overestimating the market for their services; both players remained unsigned well into the 2014 season and ultimately lost out on significant money. Of course, it should be noted that their markets were significantly affected by the old qualifying offer system.

On the other hand, a pillow contract carries its own type of risk. Injuries, stark drop-offs in performance, and a number other factors could hurt a player’s earning potential when he reaches free agency again. What’s more, the free agent market next year boasts some incredibly high-end talent; the 2018-2019 crop will probably include the likes of Bryce Harper, Clayton Kershaw, Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson. Should any of this year’s free agents opt to settle for high-value one-year contract, they could end up struggling for attention in a crowded market next winter, with the added downside of being a year older.

Obviously, no player will agree to a pillow contract except as a last resort prior to spring training. If they can’t get the guarantees they’re seeking now, it’s far more likely that these players would accept a smaller (but still hefty) multi-year guarantee rather than take a one-year deal and risk losing out on tens of millions of dollars. But the agents of these players have a greater agenda, and if the best offers their clients are getting would set a poor precedent for future contracts, it’s conceivable that the agents could become proponents of pillow contracts for their clients.

There are clear pros and cons to these deals, but I’ll open the conversation up to our reader base at this point. What do you think? (Poll link for app users)

Will Any Of The Top 10 2017-2018 Free Agents Take A Pillow Contract?
Yes, more than one 57.88% (5,168 votes)
No 22.54% (2,013 votes)
Yes, but only one 19.58% (1,748 votes)
Total Votes: 8,929

Poll: Who Will Sign Eric Hosmer?

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The current Major League Baseball offseason has been an unusual one for multiple reasons, including the lack of movement atop the free agent market. Nearly two months after free agency opened, most of the elite members of this winter’s class remain on the board. That includes longtime Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer, whose trip to the market has been especially odd. Surprisingly, there’s no indication any contenders are pursuing him with any gusto.

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To this point, two clubs that don’t stand much chance to win in 2018 have shown the most interest in Hosmer. On one hand, it’s not exactly shocking that the Royals have tried to retain Hosmer, who’s one of the most popular players in franchise history and a key reason for their 2015 World Series title. It’s peculiar, though, that they’re trying to keep him while looking to cut payroll and rebuild.

Even with a career year from Hosmer in 2017 and important contributions from the likes of Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Minor – all of whom are now out of the organization – the Royals only won 80 games. So, odds are this isn’t a team that’s going to succeed in the near term even if it convinces the 28-year-old Hosmer to re-sign.

Similarly, the Padres aren’t going to pose a threat in 2018 – especially in a division with three of last season’s five NL playoff qualifiers – yet they’ve gone even harder after Hosmer than the Royals. The Padres met with Hosmer earlier this month, and a week later, they reportedly emerged as the favorites to sign him. But no agreement has come to fruition in the week and a half since then, perhaps owing to a difference of opinion within the San Diego organization.

Some Padres bigwigs would be on board with making Hosmer the first nine-figure player in franchise history with the hope that the well-regarded leader would serve as a culture-changing force; others have reservations about whether now is the right time for the Padres to splurge on a free agent. It’s easy to sympathize with the latter camp, given that the Padres are coming off their 11th straight non-playoff campaign and figure to need at least a couple more years to make a return to the postseason. By the time San Diego turns back into a contender (if it does anytime soon), Hosmer’s best years may be in the rearview mirror.

In addition to signing an enormous deal, an ideal scenario for Hosmer would likely include joining a team that’s in position to win now. But clear fits among contenders are difficult to find.  The Cardinals have been linked to Hosmer, though they could continue with Matt Carpenter at first or roll with Jose Martinez and Luke Voit. With those options in the fold, they’ve been more focused on landing a high-profile third baseman than a first baseman in recent weeks. The Red Sox were a popular pick to reel in Hosmer earlier this offseason, but they seemingly took themselves out of the running this week with the surprise re-signing of fellow first baseman Mitch Moreland. And most other playoff hopefuls – including the Astros, Indians, Yankees, Twins, Angels, Mariners, Nationals, Cubs, Brewers, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rockies and Mets – either don’t need first base help or aren’t in position to spend big on it.

With highly skilled agent Scott Boras as his representative, one can’t rule out an unexpected team making a major play for Hosmer (Boras could probably talk the Heat Miser into buying a parka, after all). As of now, though, it seems Boras is facing long odds of finding a contender to take on Hosmer. Consequently, Hosmer may have to choose between staying in Kansas City or heading to San Diego.

(Poll link for app users)

Who will sign Eric Hosmer?
Other 39.75% (7,888 votes)
Royals 34.01% (6,748 votes)
Padres 26.24% (5,206 votes)
Total Votes: 19,842

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Should The Cubs Sign Yu Darvish?

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It’s obvious now that the Cubs have more than a passing interest in free agent righty Yu Darvish, who the team’s top brass met with today in Texas. As Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic writes, it seems the growing likelihood of a match is the result more of market development than the pre-winter intentions of the Chicago organization.

The connection is real, then, but its consummation is hardly a fait accompli. It’s a good time to stop and take the temperature of the MLBTR readership on the subject with a poll.

It doesn’t take much explanation to establish the fit. Darvish is the top free agent starter, in MLBTR’s collective estimation. While the Cubs have added Tyler Chatwood to a staff that’s fronted by Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester, and Jose Quintana, the club would like to add another high-quality arm to push Mike Montgomery into the bullpen (or out via trade). The club seems to have payroll space left to work with.

In one view, then, it’s simple: of course the Cubs should pursue Darvish. That said, if it’s circumstances driving the interest — say, Darvish’s interest levels and the still-lofty asking price of other top free agents like Jake Arrieta and Alex Cobb — then we have to bear in mind all the more that price will matter. It’s not as if the rest of the market will sit back and allow the Cubs to swoop in and make a deal; a few other teams, at least, have been cited as having ongoing interest.

So, rather than a simple yes/no question, I thought it’d be more interesting to see the circumstances under which folks believe a match would be sensible here for the Cubs. Darvish makes any team better, but perhaps you think he’s not as good as other options or that the team should prioritize other areas altogether. Or, maybe you think the expected contract price (something approaching or even exceeding Lester’s contract) is just too steep, but that Darvish would be a great add if he can be acquired for something below that rate. (Poll link for app users.)

Should the Cubs Sign Yu Darvish?
Sure, but only if he takes a discount from expectations. 42.06% (10,497 votes)
Yes, even if it means paying top dollar. 28.35% (7,075 votes)
No, the Cubs should chase a different top starter. 18.29% (4,565 votes)
No, the Cubs should not use resources on a top starter. 11.29% (2,818 votes)
Total Votes: 24,955

How Good Are The Angels?

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The Angels have employed the world’s best baseball player, center fielder Mike Trout, since 2011, yet the team has never come close to fully capitalizing on his presence. The Halos endured their third straight non-playoff season in 2017, during which a thumb injury helped limit Trout to a career-low 114 games, and finished below .500 (80-82) for the second year in a row. With Trout on their roster, the Angels have gone to the postseason just once – in 2014 – and the Royals swept them from the American League Division Series that year. So, through no real fault of his own, Trout has never even won a playoff game in the majors.

Shohei Ohtani

With Trout set to enter the third-last year of his contract in 2018, general manager Billy Eppler has spent this offseason making one impressive move after another to ensure the Angels finally give real support to the two-time AL MVP. Not only was Eppler able to reel in the offseason’s top free agent, ballyhooed Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani, but he also kept big-hitting left fielder Justin Upton from leaving via the open market and improved the team’s infield substantially with the pickups of second baseman Ian Kinsler (acquired from the Tigers) and third baseman Zack Cozart (signed to a three-year, $38MM deal).

The Angels’ inability to find solutions at either the keystone or the hot corner helped lead to their downfall last season, when their second basemen finished with the majors’ third-worst fWAR (minus-0.3) and their third basemen posted the league’s 10th-worst mark (2.0). Kinsler and Cozart combined for 7.4 fWAR in 2017, meanwhile, and the latter was particularly strong during an unexpected offensive breakout (.297/.385/.548 in 507 plate appearances). Even if that proves to be a mirage and Cozart regresses to being the roughly league-average hitter he was from 2015-16, both that and the ex-Reds shortstop’s top-quality defense would still make him a welcome addition in Anaheim.

Now, with Trout, Upton, Kinsler, Cozart, shortstop Andrelton Simmons, catcher Martin Maldonado and right fielder Kole Calhoun, the Angels have an enviable core group of position players (though Calhoun’s the only lefty-swinger of the bunch). Of course, they may yet have another impressive bat in Ohtani, who thrived as a lefty slugger in Japan and will get an opportunity to factor in as a designated hitter with the Angels. Another benefit of Ohtani’s presence is that it should make it easier for the team to limit the at-bats of future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols, who seemed to finally hit the wall during his age-37 campaign in 2017.

While it’s anyone’s guess whether Ohtani’s offensive excellence will transfer from Japan to North America, he at least figures to be a front-line starting pitcher if healthy. That’s not a given, unfortunately, as the hard-throwing right-hander is currently dealing with a sprained UCL in his throwing elbow. Every team that courted Ohtani during his famous foray into free agency seemingly knew about the issue at the time, however, and there’s hope it won’t prove to be a major injury.

Barring a disastrous turn of events, Ohtani and fellow righty Garrett Richards – who barely pitched over the previous two years while contending with injuries of his own – should form an outstanding one-two punch. There are injury- and performance-related questions peppered throughout the rest of what could be a six-man starting staff, though, with no one from the quintet of Matt Shoemaker, Parker Bridwell, Tyler Skaggs, Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano inspiring a ton of confidence.

Beyond that, a bullpen that was an upper-echelon group last season lost arguably its premier reliever, workhorse Yusmeiro Petit, who joined the AL West rival Athletics in free agency. With apologies to up-and-down veteran Jim Johnson, whom the Angels acquired from the Braves last month, they haven’t done anything to adequately replace Petit. Consequently, their current relief corps consists of several question marks aside from Blake Parker, who was tremendous last season.

Eppler’s heavy lifting for the offseason is probably over, but he could still address certain areas – namely the pitching staff – in an effort to bolster the Angels’ playoff chances in 2018. At the same time, other AL GMs will surely make moves in the coming months that help shape the postseason race next year. But for now, the Angels join the division-rival/reigning world champion Astros, Indians, Yankees and Red Sox as the class of the AL, according to FanGraphs, which regards the new-look Halos as an 86-win team. Based on that projection, the Angels would finish three games ahead of sixth-place Toronto, earn the AL’s second wild-card spot and snap their three-year playoff drought. We’re still a few months from seeing these Angels play a meaningful game, but are you on the bandwagon right now?

(Poll link for App users)

Do you expect the Angels to make the playoffs in 2018?
Yes 65.51% (12,374 votes)
No 34.49% (6,516 votes)
Total Votes: 18,890

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Who Will Sign Shohei Ohtani?

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We have been covering Shohei Otani here at MLBTR since his first potential move to the majors — back in 2012, when he was a teenager. At that time, Ohtani decided to remain in Japan. Though an eventual posting always seemed likely, barriers arose along the way that made it seem he’d remain there a while longer, but the 23-year-old phenom is now well down the road of finally coming to North America to play at the game’s highest level. And now that he has narrowed his list of potential teams, we finally have an idea of where he might land.

With sit-down discussions just getting underway between Ohtani and his seven suitors, it seems an opportune time to get predictions from the MLBTR readership. It’s a fun exercise, nothing more, since at this point we still have no real idea what the decision will turn on.

Even if Ohtani himself has an inkling, he’s also surely waiting to see how he hits it off with each team. Of course, his list of possibilities does come with a few clues. He’s obviously inclined to play on the west coast, as all but two of the remaining teams are sited in states bordering the Pacific Ocean. Perhaps he’s not altogether committed to the idea of spending significant time as a DH (rather than an outfielder), as just three of the organizations are in the American League. Really, though, it’s pure guesswork.

Everybody has a pet theory or a gut intuition here. What’s yours? (Team order randomized; link for app users.)

Which Team Will Land Shohei Ohtani?
Mariners 32.93% (13,039 votes)
Giants 14.46% (5,726 votes)
Cubs 12.75% (5,050 votes)
Dodgers 12.04% (4,767 votes)
Angels 10.58% (4,188 votes)
Padres 10.36% (4,104 votes)
Rangers 6.89% (2,728 votes)
Total Votes: 39,602
Show all

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