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MLBTR Polls

Poll: Who Will Be The First Top-10 Free Agent To Sign?

By Mark Polishuk | November 23, 2017 at 6:55pm CDT

There hasn’t been much action on the free agent front as we approach the end of November, and we’re still a couple of weeks away from the epicenter of offseason activity known as the Winter Meetings.  Still, it isn’t uncommon for one big signing to trigger a plethora of other moves, so now it may just be a question of figuring out which major 2017-18 free agent will set off the offseason’s business by being the first to land a new contract.

Looking at MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents, of course, one very big name has already decided on his 2018 team — Masahiro Tanaka, the #5 free agent on the list, decided not to opt out of his deal with the Yankees.  (Justin Upton also reached his new five-year agreement with the Angels before our list was published, otherwise he would’ve certainly had a high placement.) With Tanaka off the board, the top ten players on MLBTR’s list are, from 1-10: Yu Darvish, J.D. Martinez, Eric Hosmer, Jake Arrieta, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Wade Davis, Lance Lynn, Greg Holland, and Alex Cobb.

Beyond how each player personally chooses to approach the market, there are several other big-picture factors that will impact how quickly any of these free agents may find another contract.  Shohei Ohtani’s free agency and the Giancarlo Stanton trade talks could hold both the pitching and hitting markets at bay until either situation is resolved.  Eight of the ten players (all except Darvish and Martinez) have draft pick compensation tied to their services via the qualifying offer.  Martinez, Hosmer, Arrieta, Moustakas, and Holland are all represented by Scott Boras, who is known for waiting deep into the offseason for finding a suitable contract for his clients.

There’s still a lot of uncertainty in this offseason’s market…but hey, that just makes predicting all the more fun!  Who do you think will be the first of the top 10 free agents to ink a new deal?  (Poll link for App users)

Which Of These Free Agents Will Be The First To Sign?
Alex Cobb 19.59% (3,789 votes)
J.D. Martinez 15.51% (3,000 votes)
Lorenzo Cain 10.39% (2,009 votes)
Jake Arrieta 9.27% (1,793 votes)
Yu Darvish 8.83% (1,708 votes)
Eric Hosmer 8.82% (1,706 votes)
Wade Davis 8.29% (1,604 votes)
Lance Lynn 8.08% (1,563 votes)
Mike Moustakas 5.89% (1,140 votes)
Greg Holland 5.34% (1,033 votes)
Total Votes: 19,345
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2017-18 MLB Free Agents MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls

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Poll: Will The Rays Trade Chris Archer?

By Connor Byrne | November 19, 2017 at 2:30pm CDT

Even though Rays general manager Erik Neander suggested last week that the team plans to keep its top trade chip, Chris Archer, the right-hander still figures to frequent the rumor mill this offseason. On Saturday, for instance, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported that the Rays may well listen to offers on their priciest veterans, including Archer, this winter. The 29-year-old Archer certainly isn’t expensive – he’s controllable through 2021 at just $33.75MM – but removing his team-friendly contract would nonetheless help the Rays in their quest to cut payroll. Plus, with Boston and New York looking primed to serve as major American League East obstacles in the coming years, it could behoove the Rays to embark on a rebuild in the wake of four straight sub-.500 seasons and try to return to relevance down the road.

Chris Archer

Trading Archer would be a near-term white flag from Tampa Bay, but it would go a long way toward helping the club further beef up its already deep farm system. The hard-throwing workhorse’s presence on the trade market would undoubtedly spark a bidding war, given both his ultra-affordable contract and front-line track record.  Since debuting in 2012, Archer has pitched to a 3.63 ERA/3.46 FIP and notched 9.72 K/9 against 2.94 BB/9. He’s now coming off his third straight 200-inning season, one that saw him overshadow a merely decent ERA (4.07) with career-best marks in K/9 (11.15), BB/9 (2.69) and swinging-strike rate (13.4 percent).

Every team would love to add such an appealing starter, but some aren’t close enough to contention to justify seriously pursuing a trade for him, while others probably don’t have good enough farm systems to come out on top in an Archer sweepstakes. Of last season’s playoff teams, the Twins, Cubs (one of Archer’s ex-organizations) and Rockies stand out as clubs that would benefit the most from acquiring Archer, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see any of the Astros, Dodgers (led by former Rays GM Andrew Friedman, who traded for Archer in Tampa Bay), Nationals or Yankees attempt to land him. Meanwhile, none of the Brewers, Cardinals, Braves or Phillies qualified for the postseason in 2017, but all of those clubs have above-average systems and are seemingly on the upswing. Those factors, not to mention issues in each of their rotations, would make Archer a reasonable target.

Any talk of an offseason Archer trade will go down as much ado about nothing if the Rays don’t opt for a major rebuild, but as Topkin suggested, it’s at least under consideration. Should the Rays take that extreme route, Archer would shake up a pitching market that includes a couple top-tier free agent starters (Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta), with another potentially on the way in Japanese star Shohei Ohtani. For teams that can’t or don’t want to dish out nine-figure contracts to Darvish or Arrieta, and for those that miss out on the highly coveted Ohtani, Archer would make for an enticing alternative via trade.

(Poll link for App users)

Will the Rays trade Chris Archer this offseason?
No 51.15% (5,314 votes)
Yes 48.85% (5,076 votes)
Total Votes: 10,390

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Tampa Bay Rays Chris Archer

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Poll: Which Of These Prospects Is Most Likely To Be Traded?

By Kyle Downing | November 11, 2017 at 4:22pm CDT

During the offseason, rumors about major league players dominate the headlines. Fans and analysts alike discuss potential landing spots for major league free agents and trade candidates. With so much of the focus on big name MLB players, the subject of which top prospects could change hands falls into the background.

The players below are some of the most valuable trade assets in the game who have not yet lost their rookie eligibility. MLB Pipeline considers each of them to be among the top 25 prospects in baseball. They all play for teams that are firmly in “win now mode”. Indeed, all five of them belong to teams that finished with a top four record in baseball last season. It’s safe to say that, were they to dangle their respective prospects as trade bait, each of those teams could fill nearly any need on their big league roster.

Victor Robles, OF (No. 2 Overall Prospect): Nationals

The Nationals signed Victor Robles out of the Dominican Republic at age 16, and he’s met little resistance throughout his development. The Nats promoted him to the majors for the first time in September of 2017; he even made the club’s NLDS roster. In his 24 regular season at-bats, Robles managed six hits, including three for extra bases. The Nationals are in need of another starting pitcher, and the 20-year-old outfielder could easily bring back an elite arm. Washington’s outfield picture for 2018 seems reasonably clear, with Adam Eaton, Michael Taylor and Bryce Harper all under contract and Brian Goodwin as a solid fourth outfielder option. However, Robles is practically major league-ready right now, so it might not make much sense to trade him when he could easily contribute this season. eIt’s especially important to note that Eaton, Taylor and Harper all dealt with injuries last season. With that in mind, the Nationals might prefer to deal their second-best prospect, outfielder Juan Soto, instead.

Kyle Tucker, OF (No. 7 Overall Prospect): Astros

Houston took Tucker out of H.B. Plant High School in Tampa, FL with the fifth pick in the 2015 draft. The young outfielder proceeded to rocket through the club’s minor-league system, reaching the Double-A level midway through 2017. Tucker’s hit tool is one of the best among minor-leaguers, but the Astros already have other left-handed outfield options at the major league level. Josh Reddick and Derek Fisher both bat primarily from the left side, while George Springer, Marwin Gonzalez and Jake Marisnick figure to be ahead of Tucker on the depth chart heading into 2018 as well. That’s not to say that Tucker isn’t more talented than those players, but it seems like a lot would have to happen for him to stumble into significant playing time next season. On the other hand, the Astros don’t have a clear hole on the major league roster outside of the bullpen, and Tucker is far too valuable to trade for a reliever. The organization has also reportedly been stingy about trading any of their top prospects lately, so perhaps it’s unlikely we’ll see him moved.

Francisco Mejia, C (No. 13 Overall Prospect): Indians

Mejia’s development has been a somewhat slow process; the Indians signed him out of the Dominican Republic all the way back in 2012. However, he’s vaulted up prospect lists after incredible success across the past two seasons, including a 50-game hit streak during the 2016 campaign. The best catching prospect in baseball is only 21 and has an elite hit tool from both sides of the plate. Cleveland decided to give him a bit of seasoning at the major league level this past September, which seems to imply that they think he could be close to MLB-ready. The Indians already have catchers Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez under contract for the foreseeable future, so Mejia could be a good candidate to be exchanged for help at first base if Carlos Santana signs elsewhere. But the Indians are also testing Mejia out at third base in the Arizona Fall League, a position he could more easily claim on the Tribe’s roster at some point in 2018.

Triston McKenzie, RHP (No. 20 Overall Prospect): Indians

After McKenzie struck out 157 batters in 91 innings during his senior year in high school, Cleveland selected the right-hander in Competitive Balance Round A of the 2015 draft. The lanky 20-year-old stands at 6’5″ and throws his fastball in the low 90s, though most scouts believe he could pick up even more velocity as he grows stronger. McKenzie struck out double-digit batters in six different games at the High-A level in 2017, including a 14-strikeout effort on May 9th. Overall, the Royal Palm Beach High School product pitched to a 3.45 ERA (and a 2.67 FIP) while punching out 11.71 batters per nine innings. With the Tribe’s window of contention seemingly at its peak, and McKenzie highly unlikely to reach the majors in 2018, the righty could potentially end up being an excellent trade chip. Even if the young righty were MLB-ready, the Indians already have a stacked rotation that will include Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and two of Danny Salazar, Josh Tomlin and Mike Clevinger. McKenzie could be dangled for help at first base (should Santana depart), or elite bullpen help such as Brad Hand or Felipe Rivero.

Alex Verdugo, OF (No. 23 Overall Prospect): Dodgers

The Dodgers took Verdugo in the second round of the 2014 draft, and the left-handed outfielder has done well at every level of the minors. His power isn’t prolific and his speed is average, but his hit tool is excellent. Verdugo is patient at the plate and is great at hitting to the opposite field. While fellow Dodgers prospect Walker Buehler is excluded from this list due to his proximity to the majors and a fairly clear opening in LA’s rotation, Verdugo could be more of a luxury than a vital asset. Chris Taylor and Yasiel Puig are set to man center field and right field, respectively, and it’s unclear whether the Dodgers are ready or willing to give up on Joc Pederson yet, especially following a strong postseason performance. Verdugo could potentially be used to land a strong second baseman. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that he could be used to acquire a more proven outfielder, either. Still, the Dodgers have four other top 100 prospects outside of Buehler and Verdugo. Even if they attempt to make a blockbuster trade during the offseason, they might prefer to move someone a bit further away from the majors.

What do you think? Which of these top 25 prospects is most likely to be with another organization by the time spring training rolls around? (Poll link for app users)

Which Of These Top Prospects Is Most Likely To Be Traded?
Alex Verdugo (Dodgers) 33.90% (4,669 votes)
None of these prospects has any chance of being traded 24.80% (3,415 votes)
Victor Robles (Nationals) 12.52% (1,724 votes)
Kyle Tucker (Astros) 12.05% (1,659 votes)
Triston McKenzie (Indians) 9.30% (1,281 votes)
Francisco Mejia (Indians) 7.43% (1,023 votes)
Total Votes: 13,771
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Cleveland Guardians Houston Astros Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Washington Nationals Alex Verdugo Cleveland Indians Francisco Mejia Kyle Tucker Triston McKenzie Victor Robles

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Poll: Will The Dodgers Trade Yasmani Grandal?

By Connor Byrne | November 5, 2017 at 1:37pm CDT

Yasmani Grandal has been among the best catchers in the majors during his three-year tenure with the Dodgers, but it’s possible he’ll don a different uniform next season. After the Dodgers lost Game 7 of the World Series to the Astros on Wednesday, Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times reported that the National League champions “may field offers for” Grandal this winter.

While the Dodgers will again be on the shortlist of legitimate championship contenders entering 2018, Grandal’s age-29 season, there’s some logic to the team parting with him before then. He was barely a factor in this year’s playoffs, for one, thanks to the emergence of Austin Barnes as manager Dave Roberts’ preferred option at catcher. The 27-year-old Barnes somewhat quietly turned in an outstanding regular season in his first extensive big league action, though he accrued 220 fewer plate appearances than Grandal along the way (262 to 482). But Barnes logged nearly all of the action at backstop in the postseason, racking up 52 PAs to Grandal’s 11.

Yasmani Grandal

Given Barnes’ excellent 2017 production and long-term team control (he’s not even scheduled to reach arbitration until 2020), the Dodgers may regard him as their behind-the-plate solution for the foreseeable future. Grandal, on the other hand, only has a year of control left, in which he’ll earn a projected $7.7MM in arbitration. That shouldn’t be an unpalatable sum for the big-spending Dodgers if they expect Grandal to continue seeing significant playing time next season. If he really has fallen out of favor, though, a trade could be in the offing.

In marketing Grandal, the Dodgers would be shopping a player who, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric, has never been worse than an average major league hitter in any of his six seasons of action. The switch-hitting Grandal is coming off a year in which he registered a 102 wRC+, which was both above average for position players and especially for catchers, who posted a mean of 89. As effective as Grandal has been at the plate, there’s a case to be made that he has been even better behind it. Since debuting with the Padres in 2012, Grandal has been an elite pitch framer in each season, per both Baseball Prospectus and StatCorner. Grandal also just wrapped up a third straight campaign in which he threw out more would-be base stealers (32 percent) than the typical catcher (27 percent).

It’s clear that 2017 was a solid all-around year for Grandal, though it did see him experience a notable offensive dropoff compared to the previous season. Grandal performed at a personal-best level across 457 PAs in 2016, swatting 27 home runs and hitting .228/.339/.477 – good for a 121 wRC+. He fell to .247/.308/.459 with 22 HRs in 482 trips to the plate this past season, though, thanks in part to career-worst walk (8.3 percent), strikeout (27 percent), chase (31.6 percent) and swinging-strike (11.9 percent) rates. The walk and chase rates were particularly alarming, given the vastly superior numbers he recorded in those departments a year ago (14 percent and 23.3 percent, respectively).  And when Grandal did put the bat on the ball in 2017, it made far less impact than in 2016. According to Statcast (via Baseball Savant), Grandal’s average exit velocity tumbled from 91 mph to 87.9 mph, while his barrels per PA plummeted from 7.4 percent to 4.8 percent. As a result, his expected weighted on-base average cratered, going from to .363 to .288.

Any team interested in acquiring Grandal would be aware of the fact that he wasn’t at his best in 2017, yet they still may regard him as a more appealing option than the top impending free agent catchers – Jonathan Lucroy, Welington Castillo (if he opts out of his contract with the Orioles) and Alex Avila – all of whom come with obvious flaws. At the same time, there appears to be a limited number of viable fits for Grandal. Non-contenders aren’t in position to surrender much for a player who will be a free agent in a year, which could leave playoff hopefuls like the Nationals, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Angels and Orioles (unless they’re ready to hand the reins to prospect Chance Sisco) among the most logical potential suitors. But it’s hard to imagine the Dodgers helping the Nats, a fellow NL power, improve their dire situation behind the plate, and the same applies to the division-rival D-backs and Rockies. As American League teams, the Angels and Orioles seem like more realistic possibilities, but their thin farm systems could stand in the way if the Dodgers were to seek youth in return for Grandal.

Should the Dodgers shop Grandal and fail to find an offer to their liking, retaining him wouldn’t exactly be a negative outcome. On paper, he and Barnes would continue to give the Dodgers an enviable backstop tandem in 2018, regardless of which of the two plays more, thereby increasing the team’s odds of winning a sixth straight NL West title.

(Poll link for App users)

Will the Dodgers trade Yasmani Grandal?
Yes 64.74% (6,192 votes)
No 35.26% (3,372 votes)
Total Votes: 9,564

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Yasmani Grandal

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Poll: Michael Brantley’s Option

By Connor Byrne | October 29, 2017 at 1:29pm CDT

Michael BrantleyWith free agency around the corner, the American League Central-winning Indians could be on the verge of losing a few notable contributors to their 2017 offense. Carlos Santana, Jay Bruce and Austin Jackson – who each posted above-average production over a combined 1,100-plus plate appearances this year – are slated to hit the open market, and it’s possible outfielder Michael Brantley will join them.

Unlike his three teammates, Brantley is controllable through 2018 (with a $12MM club option), but Cleveland brass has not indicated whether it’s going to bring him back. As of Oct. 19, the Indians were “working through” what to do with Brantley, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti told reporters.

Antonetti & Co. have until three days after the World Series to make a call on Brantley’s option, which comes with a $1MM buyout. If the Indians are confident Brantley will be consistently available in 2018, keeping him in the fold should be a no-brainer. The 30-year-old has been a quality regular over the past several seasons, after all, especially when he combined to slash a superb .319/.382/.494 with 38 home runs and 35 stolen bases across 1,272 PAs from 2014-15. Unfortunately, injuries have somewhat derailed Brantley’s career since that star-caliber two-year stretch, thus complicating the Indians’ decision.

The Tribe won an AL pennant and came within a victory of a World Series title in 2016, but the team did it without Brantley, who took just 41 trips to the plate and didn’t play past May 9. Shoulder problems troubled Brantley then, though his offseason recovery from surgery went well enough that he was able to make it back for the start of 2017.

In terms of production, this season represented a successful return for Brantley, who hit a respectable .299/.357/.444 with nine homers and 11 steals in 383 PAs. Availability was an issue again, though, as Brantley endured multiple stints on the disabled list with a right ankle sprain. Brantley’s second DL placement, on Aug. 9, brought an end to his regular season with nearly two months remaining in the campaign. Encouragingly, Brantley returned for the Indians’ ALDS loss to the Yankees and totaled 12 PAs in the series, yet his comeback didn’t mean his ankle woes were completely behind him. Shortly after Cleveland’s elimination, Brantley underwent ankle surgery, and he’s now in the early stages of a four- to five-month recovery.

With this year’s World Series set to wrap up Wednesday at the latest, the Indians have less than a week to determine whether an on-the-mend Brantley will be worth keeping around at a fairly high price. Ideally, retaining Brantley would help the Tribe’s offense overcome the potential departures of Santana, Bruce and Jackson. However, considering the Indians are entering the offseason without a lot of payroll space to work with, allocating $12MM to a player with injury questions may be a risk they elect not to take.

Will the Indians pick up Michael Brantley's option?
No 55.86% (3,185 votes)
Yes 44.14% (2,517 votes)
Total Votes: 5,702

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Cleveland Guardians MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Michael Brantley

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Assessing The Yankees’ Options At Third Base

By Jeff Todd | October 23, 2017 at 10:25pm CDT

Now that the Yankees have wrapped up a successful 2017 season, the attention can shift fully to their efforts in 2018. Well, mostly. This is the era of responsible stewardship in the Bronx, so at least one eye will surely also train its gaze to the horizon.

As the team ponders its options at third base, then, it won’t simply be a matter of deciding which top free agent or trade candidate is best. On the face of things, the team is losing its third bagger to free agency and must find a replacement. And, indeed, mid-season acquisition Todd Frazier is headed to the open market. For a Yankees team that’s primed  to compete, that could mean its time to add a star. But there’s more at play here, making for a particularly interesting situation.

First, GM Brian Cashman has made clear that the Yankees’ payroll will not top $197MM. The Yanks are finally determined to get under the luxury tax line and seem quite committed to doing so. Given its slate of existing commitments, and assuming the team pays the full amount projected for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will have just under $145MM committed and the bulk of the roster accounted for. After accounting for pre-arb salaries and the standard medical and other employment allocations, the organization could have something in the realm of $35MM to play with — perhaps a bit more, if some of Jacoby Ellsbury’s salary can be moved — though the front office may also need to keep some powder dry for mid-season moves. While that’s still a healthy amount of wiggle room, since the Yanks will return quite a few key pieces, it creates some real constraints.

Second, it’s worth bearing in mind that next year’s free agent class offers some extremely exciting possibilities. Among the many superstars hitting the open market, barring extensions, will be Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson — two of the game’s very best third baggers. Two others, Nolan Arenado and Anthony Rendon, will reach free agency in the ensuing winter. It’s difficult to structure near-term decisions around such hypothetical opportunities, of course, but the possibility of landing a star performer in the relatively near future could weigh in favor of some restraint on this year’s market.

Third, the Yankees may well actually already have their next stud already lined up. Gleyber Torres seemed on the verge of a call-up this past summer before going down to season-ending surgery. He’s expected to be prepared for a full and complete spring. But he’ll enter camp just a few months removed from his 21st birthday. Though the much-hyped prospect carried a .863 OPS at both the Double-A and Triple-A levels in 2017, those 235 plate appearances represent the full sum of his upper-minors experience. He’s not even the only quality prospect that could be in position; Miguel Andujar was also excellent in the upper minors last year and even enjoyed a brief but exciting MLB debut.

Fourth, the Yanks may also already have a perfectly useful immediate option on hand. Chase Headley was dispossessed of the job at third when the team added Frazier. But he ended up turning in his best full season at the plate since re-signing with New York. The switch hitter did not grade out positively with the glove at third, but perhaps there’s still reason to believe he can play palatable defense entering his age-34 season. Notably, as has typically been the case throughout his career, Headley was particularly effective against right-handed pitching, posting a sturdy .279/.374/.405 slash line. That makes him a fairly easy player to platoon, perhaps increasing the universe of possibilities as Cashman weighs his options.

So, just what are Cashman’s options?

As always, it’s possible to imagine the team simply going out and signing the best available player in free agency. This year’s market is led by Mike Moustakas, the 29-year-old slugger. His profile is similar to that of Frazier: good power, generally solid glovework (though his metrics slipped in 2017), and on-base struggles. Frazier himself is another possibility, of course, and ought to be available on a shorter term and perhaps at a lower annual salary than will be required to land Moustakas. Those two likely represent the universe of plausible starters, however, unless Zack Cozart is willing to change positions (and teams like the Yankees show interest in trying him at third).

On the trade market, it’s really not yet clear what might be possible. Machado and Donaldson would be major prizes, but the Orioles and Blue Jays have given hints that they won’t be selling either player. (And they’d be especially hesitant to allow them to go to the Yankees, surely.) Eugenio Suarez is a controllable piece coming off of a nice year, an perhaps he could be had for the right price, but it’ll be steep. Adrian Beltre would make for a nice target, but the Rangers aren’t likely to deal him. The Cardinals may have a bit of an infield logjam, potentially freeing Jedd Gyorko or Matt Carpenter, but it’s not yet clear how they’ll proceed. Maikel Franco could conceivably be dangled by the Phillies, though perhaps taking a shot on a talented but inconsistent young player isn’t the right approach at this stage.

Acquiring a new regular would mean not only paying a hefty acquisition price, but also figuring out what to do with Headley. He could be traded, but that would likely mean paying down some of his $13MM salary. Committing to a player such as Moustakas may not be all that desirable given New York’s excellent young options. Plus, his on-base woes come with real risk. Even Frazier could prove a questionable investment and inflexible asset, though at least he’d pair more naturally with Headley and first baseman Greg Bird and wouldn’t require such a lengthy commitment. While the trade side is worth considering, it’s also entirely up in the air at this point. Regardless, if the Yankees are going to make a big move at third — potentially blocking Torres — then perhaps it ought to be saved for next winter.

Under the circumstances, then, the Yanks might be better-served by looking instead at a platoon candidate with broader function. Yunel Escobar could provide a veteran accompaniment to Headley, though perhaps he’ll prefer to join a team that’s willing to promise him more playing time. The versatile Eduardo Nunez might be an interesting option for New York, as he’d also offer some insurance elsewhere around the diamond while upgrading over Ronald Torreyes as the primary utilityman. Asdrubal Cabrera might also make sense if his option is declined (or even if he’s dangled in trade) by the cross-town Mets.

On the trade market, possible options to join Headley at third while also seeing action elsewhere could include Josh Harrison — who’d have the highest acquisition cost and would perhaps take primary duty at the job — as well as Jed Lowrie, Logan Forsythe, David Freese, and old friend Yangervis Solarte (the player dealt to acquire Headley). Nicholas Castellanos and Martin Prado are among other possible trade targets, but the former doesn’t seem to have the glove for third and the latter is coming off of a poor and injury-riddled campaign, though as with Solarte he’s a player the Yankees know well.

That largely covers the array of outside options. Of course, it’s conceivable too that the Yanks will essentially just return the job to Headley while awaiting the mid-season arrival of its youngsters (Torres, in particular) and utilize the existing financial resources to address other areas of need. How do you see things playing out? (Link for app users.)

What Will The Yankees Do At Third Base?
Roll with Headley and the prospects. 69.87% (7,634 votes)
Get a new full-time player. 17.02% (1,860 votes)
Find a platoon mate for Headley. 13.11% (1,432 votes)
Total Votes: 10,926
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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls New York Yankees

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Poll: Who Will Win The World Series?

By Mark Polishuk | October 22, 2017 at 8:14pm CDT

The 2017 season will culminate in an epic World Series, matching the Dodgers against the Astros.  It is the first time since 1970 that the Fall Classic has featured two teams that each won 100 games or more games — L.A. will have homefield advantage, as the Dodgers’ 104-58 record topped the Astros’ 101-61 mark.

After winning the NL West title and falling short in each of the last four postseasons, the Dodgers finally broke through this year to capture their first National League pennant since 1988.  The club overcame scores of injuries (38 DL stints, the most of any team in baseball) to achieve their success, though obviously having the game’s largest payroll goes a long way in securing roster depth.  Beyond the expected contributions from established stars like Clayton Kershaw, Kenley Jansen, and Justin Turner, the Dodgers were also buoyed by Corey Seager’s excellent sophomore year, rookie Cody Bellinger’s 39 homers, Yasiel Puig’s bounce-back year, and utilityman Chris Taylor’s emergence as an everyday threat.  If this wasn’t enough, the Dodgers added Yu Darvish at the trade deadline to enhance an already-outstanding rotation.

This is the Dodgers’ 19th World Series appearance, tied with the Cardinals for the third-most in history.  By contrast, this is only the Astros’ second trip to the Fall Classic, though they now have the unique distinction of being the only franchise to represent both the American League and National League in the World Series.

This pennant represents the culmination of the Astros’ scorched-earth rebuild under GM Jeff Luhnow.  Due to a complete focus on building up the farm system, the Astros went only 162-324 from 2011-13, a brutal stretch of play that saw fan interest in Houston almost evaporate and Luhnow’s methods questioned by many around the game.  As with last year’s champion Cubs, however, a long rebuild resulted in an enviable core of young talent.  George Springer, Carlos Correa, Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, Alex Bregman and AL MVP favorite Jose Altuve are all homegrown Astros, and the team further supplemented that core with under-the-radar trade pickups (i.e. Marwin Gonzalez, Chris Devenski) and bigger-ticket acquisitions (Yuli Gurriel, Brian McCann, Josh Reddick, Carlos Beltran).  The final piece of the puzzle was trading for Justin Verlander at almost literally the last second prior to the August 31st waiver deadline, and Verlander has been nothing short of spectacular since coming to Houston.

With two days to go before Keuchel vs. Kershaw at Dodger Stadium in Game One, we post the question…what is your prediction for the 2017 Series?  (link to poll for MLBTR mobile app users)

Who Will Win The World Series?
Dodgers in six games 32.49% (6,716 votes)
Astros in six games 24.80% (5,127 votes)
Astros in seven games 17.11% (3,537 votes)
Dodgers in five games 12.27% (2,537 votes)
Dodgers in seven games 7.24% (1,496 votes)
Astros in five games 3.38% (698 votes)
Dodgers in four games 1.79% (371 votes)
Astros in four games 0.93% (192 votes)
Total Votes: 20,674
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Houston Astros Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls

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Poll: The Next Red Sox Manager

By Steve Adams | October 19, 2017 at 9:12am CDT

The Red Sox moved on from manager John Farrell following the team’s exit in the American League Division Series, putting Boston in the hunt for a new skipper for the first time since 2012. The decision wasn’t entirely unexpected — many reports had suggested that Farrell could be on the hot seat if the team endured a second consecutive exit in the Division Series, and Farrell was put in place by former general manager Ben Cherington as opposed to current president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.

Dombrowski will now have the opportunity to make his own hire and install a manager of his choosing in the dugout. And although Boston’s managerial post was vacated more recently than the Tigers, Mets or Phillies, it’s seemed as if the Sox are choosing from a more limited field of candidates than the other clubs seeking a new skipper. Reports have indicated that Astros bench coach Alex Cora, Diamondbacks bench coach Ron Gardenhire and recently dismissed Tigers manager Brad Ausmus are the the three likeliest candidates to replace Farrell. Dombrowski did tell reporters yesterday that he’s still deciding whether to interview others, but each of the three apparently leading candidates has reportedly had an interview.

[Related: The Red Sox’ Managerial Search]

Ausmus, of course, is no stranger to Dombrowski after managing the Tigers for four seasons. Dombrowski hired Ausmus while serving as general manager of the Tigers and worked with him until August of 2015 when Dombrowski was dismissed from his post and replaced by longtime assistant GM Al Avila. Ausmus doesn’t have the managerial experience that Gardenhire has, but he’s managed a team more recently and is likely more in tune with analytical data. MLB Network’s Peter Gammons reported that Ausmus also thoroughly impressed the Sox when he interviewed there in 2012 and would’ve been their skipper had they not been able to pry Farrell away from the Blue Jays. He’s also been tied to the Mets’ post.

Gardenhire managed the Twins for 13 seasons, giving Dombrowski an up-close look as arguably his Tigers’ top division rival. Though he’s viewed more as an “old school” baseball mind, Gardenhire is renowned for his ability to connect with players and maintain a clubhouse. He managed the Twins to a winning record over his 13 years at the helm and won the American League Central in six of his first nine seasons. Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press has called him one of the “final three” for the job (via Twitter). Gardenhire is also reportedly a candidate for the Tigers.

Cora, meanwhile, has never managed at the big league level but has managed in winter ball and is Houston skipper A.J. Hinch’s right-hand man. He’s probably the most analytically inclined candidate of the bunch and has been touted as a future big league manager for years now. He’s been popular already, drawing interest from both the Mets and the Tigers in their respective searches for a manager. Evan Drellich of CSN New England has written that Cora is the favorite, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has also suggested as much (on Twitter).

All that said, let’s open this up for debate (link to poll for MLBTR mobile app users)…

Who should the Red Sox hire as their next manager?
Alex Cora 53.75% (5,891 votes)
Brad Ausmus 21.64% (2,372 votes)
Ron Gardenhire 18.07% (1,980 votes)
Other (Specify in comments) 6.53% (716 votes)
Total Votes: 10,959
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Poll: Should The Nationals Retain Dusty Baker?

By Jeff Todd | October 17, 2017 at 10:45am CDT

It goes without saying that the Nationals’ 2017 season ended in bitter disappointment, as the organization once again failed to make it out of the NLDS despite cruising to its fourth NL East title in the past six campaigns. The exit, in a wild and mistake-filled Game 5 loss, was yet stranger and more baffling than the previous ones — which, surely, is saying something.

While manager Dusty Baker has received quite a lot of criticism, both this year and in the past, he clearly did not deserve all the blame. Despite some questionable high-leverage personnel moves — everyone’s favorite area to nitpick — Baker was not the direct cause of the major on-field failures that led to the Nats’ demise. And he has also guided the club successfully over the course of the regular season, particularly in light of the disarray that existed when he took over following the inglorious exit of Matt Williams. At the same time, Baker obviously hasn’t yet guided the Nationals out of their postseason malaise, continuing his own uninspiring track record in October.

Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post discusses some key considerations at play regarding Baker. Of particular note: there was at least some level of discord between the skipper and club ownership over the way mid-season extension talks played out. That certainly follows a hard-to-deny trend of managerial tensions over the years. At the same time, there’s a need to chart a course for a critical offseason and 2018 campaign — rather than allowing any uncertainty to linger — while also perhaps attempting to find some stability in the dugout for the first time since the franchise landed in D.C. You’ll certainly want to give Svrluga’s piece a full read for all the nuance at play here.

No matter what, it seems prudent for the team to act relatively quickly and decisively. Making a change away from Baker would be a decision fraught with risk, including from inside the clubhouse. Negotiating with him may or may not be straightforward, and itself comes with some risk of a collapse (given the track record of ownership with managerial dealings). Several other teams are already deep into searches for new skippers, which could take several possible alternatives off the table.

Needless to say, there are many variables still at play. But the essential question remains whether the Nationals wish to retain Baker. Should they?

Should the Nationals try to retain Dusty Baker?
Yes 52.75% (5,579 votes)
No 47.25% (4,997 votes)
Total Votes: 10,576
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MLBTR Polls Washington Nationals Dusty Baker

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Poll: Improving Boston’s Offense

By Connor Byrne | October 15, 2017 at 10:34am CDT

From an offensive standpoint, the Red Sox didn’t thrive in Year 1 of the post-David Ortiz era. While Boston finished 93-69 and won its second straight American League East title in 2017, the club wasn’t the hitting juggernaut it had been throughout Ortiz’s tenure from 2003-16. The Red Sox led the majors in runs scored six times during that 14-year span, including in 2016, and only landed outside the majors’ top 10 in runs and FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric one time apiece – in 2014, when they placed 18th and 25th in those categories.

This year’s Red Sox, whom Houston dismissed from the playoffs in a four-game ALDS, did cross the plate the 10th-most times in the league, but they fell to 22nd in wRC+ after the Ortiz-led outfit ranked first last season. The majority of the Red Sox’s regulars posted mediocre numbers at the plate, and according to Statcast’s xwOBA metric (via Baseball Savant), the only ones who outperformed their results were Mitch Moreland and Hanley Ramirez.

An Ortiz-esque thumper obviously would have been of use to the Red Sox this year, and it’s possible president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski will attempt to find one in the offseason. That said, the vast majority of Boston’s position player group already looks settled for next year. Outfielders Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi, third baseman Rafael Devers, shortstop Xander Bogaerts, second baseman Dustin Pedroia and Ortiz’s DH successor, Ramirez, are locks. Sure, the Red Sox could stand to improve offensively behind the plate, where catchers Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon combined to rank a below-average 19th out of the majors’ 30 teams in wRC+, but each offered significant value in the pitch-framing department (per Baseball Prospectus). And with Jonathan Lucroy having fallen off in 2017, there don’t appear to be any surefire upgrades set to hit free agency next month.

J.D. Martinez

While the aforementioned players are good bets to return to Boston next year, the status of center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. looks less certain. The Red Sox could trade the 27-year-old Bradley, who’s controllable for three more seasons, move Benintendi from left to center and reel in an offensive force such as J.D. Martinez or Justin Upton via free agency to join Beninendi and Betts in the grass. Martinez and Upton (if he opts out of his contract with the Angels) will come at much higher prices than Bradley, who will earn around $6MM in 2018, but the righty-swingers would likely mash at Fenway Park. And it’s worth noting that Dombrowski has already acquired Martinez in the past. When he was the Tigers’ general manager in 2014, Dombrowski took a flyer on the then-struggling Martinez.

Despite Dombrowski’s familiarity with Martinez, it’s possible the Red Sox will elect to stick with Bradley. Although he had a subpar year offensively, batting just .245/.323/.402 in 541 plate appearances, he was an easily above-average hitter the previous two seasons. Further, even if he doesn’t revisit his 2015-16 levels with the bat, Bradley’s still capable of providing surplus value in other ways. In fact, Bradley ranked third at his position in Defensive Runs Saved (nine) and seventh in Ultimate Zone Rating (4.2) in 2017. He also fared nicely on the bases, placing 11th in FanGraphs’ BsR metric. So, even in a down 2017, Bradley was still part of the overall solution for the Sox.

It’s up in the air whether Boston will have a new outfield alignment next year, whereas change at first base looks highly likely. Moreland is probably going to leave as a free agent, and the Red Sox don’t seem to have a ready-made replacement on hand. Prospect Sam Travis, 24, is fresh off an uninspiring year at Triple-A Pawtucket, where he hit for almost no power across 342 PAs (six home runs, .105 ISO), and didn’t distinguish himself during an 83-PA major league debut in Boston. The Red Sox would be hard pressed to count on him, then, which could point them toward free agency or the trade market for a first baseman.

Free agents-to-be Eric Hosmer, Carlos Santana, Logan Morrison, Jay Bruce and Yonder Alonso all had successful offensive seasons in 2017 and could land on Boston’s radar. On the other hand, Dombrowski has never been shy about making deals and is only a year removed from swinging a blockbuster with the rebuilding White Sox, who have a star first baseman and potential trade candidate in Jose Abreu. The soon-to-be 31-year-old Abreu and his two remaining seasons of team control would warrant a quality haul, but the right-handed slugger and Fenway Park would make for an enticing match.

Whether the Red Sox make a play for Abreu or another high-profile hitter over the winter, it does seem fair to expect an offensive upgrade to come in some form. What do you think Dombrowski will do?

(Poll link for App users)

Will the Red Sox make any major offseason moves to improve their offense?
Yes 88.29% (5,524 votes)
No 11.71% (733 votes)
Total Votes: 6,257

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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