MLBTR Polls

We asked you yesterday to grade the Yu Darvish swap, and today we’ll do the same thing with the other major deadline-day trade: the deal that sent righty Sonny Gray from the Athletics to the Yankees.

Unlike Darvish, the Yanks’ newest hurler can be controlled for an additional two seasons via arbitration. That contract status better lined up with New York’s needs looking forward while also allowing the team to make a significant near-term addition, installing a pitcher who has thrown quite well in 2017. Indeed, by measure of FIP and xFIP, Gray has actually been a bit better than his 3.43 ERA would suggest. While long-term durability questions continue to be aired, the 27-year-old has looked strong since opening the year on the DL.

On the A’s side of the deal, too, health is more a question than is talent. Indeed, two of the three youngsters in the swap — outfielder Dustin Fowler and righty James Kaprielian — are both in the midst of rehabbing very significant injuries. While Jorge Mateo is likely viewed as the headlining piece by Oakland, the club is clearly hoping the other two players will not only return to full health, but will quickly regain their previous trajectory.

So, how do you grade this deal from the perspective of the Yankees? Was it worth giving up this much talent or does Gray stand too great a chance of returning to his injury-riddled, ineffective 2016 form? (Link for app users.)

And how do you feel the A’s did in taking this package instead of others … or rather than holding onto Gray until the fall? (Link for app users.)

Let’s get this out of the way: Yu Darvish will be the best rental arm available, if he is marketed. But all indications are the Rangers won’t do that, barring a total collapse over the next ten days.

Assuming that Darvish isn’t within reach, teams with interest in renting a rotation piece will be looking at a decidedly less accomplished group of starters. (And no, I don’t consider Johnny Cueto a pure rental, even if he is still likely to opt out of his contract.) Here are the best such hurlers that seem reasonably likely to be available (in alphabetical order). Which do you think is the top target?

• Trevor Cahill, Padres: Like the other members of the Friars’ staff, the 29-year-old is quite affordable. He’s also sitting on a 3.14 ERA with 11.1 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 through ten starts on the year, though he did miss time due to injury.
• Jhoulys Chacin, Padres: Chacin has been rather effective, with a 4.33 ERA thus far, and has also racked up 108 frames. He is also throwing as hard as ever with a 92 mph average fastball.
• Marco Estrada, Blue Jays: The results have been terrible, but Estrada has struck out 9.9 opposing hitters per nine and could represent quite an intriguing turnaround candidate.
• Scott Feldman, Reds: He’s hurt now, but had been quietly providing solid innings, as he has for most of his career. If he’s able to bounce back quickly from the DL, Feldman could be valued for his steadiness.
• Jaime Garcia, Braves: He’s earning a healthy $12MM salary, and has had his ups and downs, but has been quite good at times in the not-so-distant past.
• Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies: Hellickson was failing to get strikeouts for much of the year, but has ramped things up of late. He also has allowed 11 earned in his past 30 1/3 innings.
• Derek Holland, White Sox: It’s tough to sugarcoat Holland’s struggles since the calendar flipped to June, but he was carrying a 2.37 ERA to that point and has still mixed in some productive outings since.
• Francisco Liriano, Blue Jays: Likewise, Liriano has not produced results. But he’s still bringing 93 from the left side and can miss bats; perhaps an organization with some ideas on how to get him back to form could take a shot on the enigmatic southpaw.

Which pitcher do you prefer? (Link for mobile users.)

As I work to complete the latest installation in our top 50 trade deadline candidate series, it occurred to me just how many really good pen lefties could be available this summer. There aren’t many clubs that couldn’t stand to add a power southpaw to the back of the bullpen, so there ought to be significant demand. But might the presence of so many options also help tamp down prices a bit?

As we learned last year, teams will pay a premium at the deadline for truly premium relief arms. But it’s a more debatable group this time around, with Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller locked in with their current organizations.

So, who is the best lefty relief trade target out there? We’ll limit the options to teams that are clearly in a selling position at this point. (That means no Zach Britton; though he’s back from the DL today, his availability seems quite speculative.) Here are my nominees (in alphabetical order):

• Jerry Blevins, Mets ($5.5MM salary with $7MM club option): The walks to righties have piled up, but Blevins is drawing loads of swings and misses (a career-high 13.3%) and he’s death to lefties.
• Ryan Buchter, Padres (league minimum salary; four arb years remaining): Since joining the Friars, Buchter has a 2.96 ERA with 11.1 K/9. Sure, he’s allowed 4.4 BB/9 in that span and has allowed a few dingers this year — plus, he’s already 30 — but he has also made strides in his whiff rate (now 11.7%) since his breakout 2016.
• Tony Cingrani, Reds ($1.825MM salary; two arb years remaining): Now that he’s back from an oblique strain, it’s time to take notice. Cingrani owns a 2.30 ERA with 15 strikeouts and three walks over his 15 2/3 frames on the year. He’s pumping 95 and generating a 12.6% swinging-strike rate, and whilehehas been dinger-prone that may be an aberration. Several other names on this list have boosted their trade value after taking some time to figure it out; perhaps the 28-year-old offers a similar opportunity.
• Sean Doolittle, Athletics ($2.6MM salary; three option years remaining): Shoulder issues continue to dog Doolittle, but the 30-year-old is borderline ridiculous when healthy. This year, he has compiled 23 strikeouts against just two walks in his 16 1/3 innings. And the highly advantageous contract also helps offset the injury questions.
• Brad Hand, Padres ($1.375MM salary; two arb years remaining): Hand has only continued to bloom in San Diego. In a hefty 44 2/3 innings this year, he has produce 2.42 ERA with 11.3 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 along with a 50.5% groundball rate.
• Tony Watson, Pirates ($5.6MM salary): The 32-year-old hasn’t been himself this year, but he’s a rental player who comes with a very impressive prior track record. While his velocity has trailed off somewhat over the years, he’s still throwing a 93.5 mph heater and getting as many swings and misses as ever. If teams believe his spike in BABIP and home runs will reverse, Watson could be seen as a prime buy-low candidate.
• Justin Wilson, Tigers ($2.7MM salary; one arb year remaining): He’s hitting his stride at an opportune time for Detroit. Over 31 2/3 innings this year, Wilson caries a 2.56 ERA with 13.4 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9. He’s bringing 96-97 mph heat and sporting a career-high 14.5% swinging-strike rate.

Who’s your preferred trade target? (Mobile link.)

It’s mid-May, so the likelihood of a significant trade going down in the near-term is pretty low. After all, even the clubs buried in the cellars of their respective divisions will be waiting on further results before deciding their course of action this summer.

Still, though, we’re reaching the point where clubs will begin weighing their options to buy or sell at the deadline. And we’ve seen a reasonably significant amount of action, with injuries and performances changing expectations for some players and teams.

While there’s still a lot to be learned, then, it’s a good time to make some predictions. As is usually the case, a variety of teams are off to surprisingly slow starts. Some of these will likely bounce back and at least enter the Wild Card picture. Others will fade out of contention and face tough choices on key veterans.

The question for MLBTR’s readership, then, is which of the teams that entered the year anticipating contention will likely end up being so buried that they’re forced to sell at the trade deadline (if not sooner).

In defining our slate of poll options, there are some necessarily arbitrary lines of demarcation. In this case, I’ve made wholly subjective assessments of which teams entered the year with realistic expectations of contending — meaning, at least remaining in the postseason picture for the vast bulk of the season. And I’ve then drawn the line for consideration at four games below .500 entering today’s action.

Select which of the following teams you expect to end up selling this summer (check all that apply; link for app users):