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Poll: Early Free Agent Starting Pitching Contracts

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This year’s free agent market has already provided a steady trickle of deals, with many involving short-term arrangements for starting pitching. Bigger contracts are yet to come, but those already handed out have committed fairly large sums, albeit on limited terms.

With many of these deals landing in a similar range, it’s interesting to compare. Here are the rotation pieces, who happen all to be right-handers, who have received major league pacts thus far (from smallest to largest in terms of total dollars):

Jesse Chavez, Angels, $5.75MM over one year (plus incentives): Chavez worked exclusively in a relief capacity last year, but he started quite a bit in 2014 and 2015 and Los Angeles views him as a part of their rotation for 2017. For a team in need of sturdy innings, the 33-year-old brings the promise of durability and palatable results at a reasonable price.

R.A. Dickey, Braves, $8MM over one year (plus 2018 club option): A similar calculus was at play with Dickey, whose knuckleball makes him a solid bet to eat up a lot of frames despite the fact that he’s already 42 years old. Though he’ll cost a bit more than Chavez, Dickey also arguably comes with greater upside, and the organization was able to take advantage of Atlanta’s proximity to the righty’s Nashville home to land him at a budget-friendly amount.

Andrew Cashner, Rangers, $10MM over one year: There’s much more variability, perhaps, baked into the price paid for Cashner, who only just turned 30 and still has a power arsenal at his disposal. The results haven’t been there in either of the last two years, and health questions persist, but Cashner is only two years removed from a high-quality campaign in which he looked like a top-of-the-rotation arm.

Bartolo Colon, Braves, $12.5MM over one year: Atlanta doubled down on aging starters, following up the Dickey signing with the even-older Colon, who’ll turn 44 before the season begins. If he was 15 years younger, Colon’s four-year platform — over which he averaged 195 frames of 3.59 ERA pitching — might well have made him the biggest earner on this winter’s market. Instead, it garnered him a strong payday but only a single-season commitment.

Charlie Morton, Astros, $14MM over two years: The only starter to score a multi-year promise, Morton only made four starts in 2016 — though that was due to a hamstring injury, not a more worrisome arm problem. He did show a fair bit of promise early last year (including a velocity bump), and carries a 3.96 ERA with strong groundball results (58.2%) over his last five campaigns, but Morton has only twice topped 25 starts and 150 innings in a single season.

Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies, $17.2MM over one year (accepted qualifying offer): Most had Hellickson penciled in to reject the QO and pursue a rather sizable, reasonably lengthy contract on the open market. After all, he’s yet to turn 30 and just turned in 189 frames of 3.71 ERA pitching. Instead, he opted for the sure thing, and the Phillies will pay a rather hefty single-season rate a pitcher who had endured his fair share of struggles prior to his quality 2016 season.

All of the teams listed above were looking to fill a rotation spot without mucking up their future balance sheets, and sought some blend of upside and dependability. So, the question for the MLBTR readership is a straightforward one: which of these contracts provides the best value to the signing organization?

Poll: Will Yoenis Cespedes Re-Sign With Mets?

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In perhaps the least surprising development of the young offseason, star outfielder Yoenis Cespedes officially opted out of the two years and $47.5MM remaining on his contract with the Mets and become a free agent Saturday. One reason Cespedes chose to re-sign with New York on a three-year, $75MM deal last offseason was its willingness to give him a three-day opt-out window after the 2016 World Series. Now, having taken advantage of that exit clause, Cespedes is back on the market as arguably the top player available.

Yoenis Cespedes

In an underwhelming free agent class, the 31-year-old Cespedes likely stands the best chance of landing a nine-figure accord prior to next season. Cespedes reportedly could have inked a five-year, $110MM contract with the Nationals last winter, but their offer came with a decade of heavily deferred payments that would have reduced the present-day value of the deal to $77MM. Back then, Cespedes was part of a class that featured seven players who signed contracts ranging from $110MM to $217MM in total value. Two of those standouts, Jason Heyward and Justin Upton, were fellow outfielders.

Cespedes won’t encounter competition along the lines of Heyward and Upton this year, which should help his cause in securing the highest-paying deal of the winter after he slashed .280/.354/.530 with 31 home runs in 543 plate appearances in 2016. That was the third excellent offensive season in the five-year major league career of Cespedes, a lifetime .272/.325/.494 hitter who has accounted for 18.6 fWAR and 18.7 bWAR in a combined 2,978 PAs with the Athletics, Red Sox, Tigers and Mets.

Having already played for four teams in a half-decade, the Cuban emigree has been a nomad since signing with Oakland in 2012. If Cespedes receives the type of deal he desires in the next few months, his days of switching uniforms should be over – at least for a while. Of course, now the question is whether he’ll remain in Queens or head to his fifth major league destination. Cespedes hopes to stay with the Mets, who acquired him from the Tigers prior to the 2015 trade deadline, but New York hadn’t opened contract talks with him as of Wednesday and once again doesn’t want to exceed three years on a contract. We’ll find out soon enough whether that’s unrealistic on the part of the Mets. In the meantime, they’ll tender Cespedes a qualifying offer by Monday’s deadline in order to receive a first-round pick as compensation if he signs elsewhere.

Ideally for the Mets (and for the player, it seems), they’ll re-up Cespedes to continue serving as the nucleus of their lineup. But considering they’re wary of engaging in a bidding war, it’s possible we’ve seen the last of Cespedes in a Mets uniform. How do you expect free agency to play out for him?

(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)

 

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: Should The Rockies Trade An Outfielder?

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In addressing the three biggest needs for the Rockies heading into the offseason, I advocated that the team trade away Carlos Gonzalez and his hefty $20MM salary. You can read the full reasoning here, but it boils down to the fact that he’s expensive and isn’t as necessary to the organization given its other left-handed-hitting options and many other needs. The emergence of David Dahl gives the Rox three southpaw-swinging outfielders, and it’s probably sub-optimal to have so many resources tied up in such players.

Still, there’s an argument to be made that Colorado ought instead to pursue deals involving another player. Charlie Blackmon’s monster 2016 season and two affordable years of control make him a highly appealing piece, especially with numerous rival organizations in the market for a center fielder. Of course, he’s also the Rockies’ primary option up the middle, though there are some alternative strategies.

The club could conceivably pair Gerardo Parra with a cheaper right-handed-hitting bat in center. Free agents such as Rajai Davis, Austin Jackson, Peter Bourjos, and Drew Stubbs should all be available on short-term deals. If trusting Parra up the middle isn’t desirable, Jon Jay or Michael Bourn could fill that role. Colorado could even provide a highly appealing bounceback locale for Carlos Gomez, though he’ll likely cost nearly as much as Gonzalez.

Parra himself could also be moved, though that would involve eating some salary. The Rockies owe him another $19.5MM over two years, including the buyout on a 2019 option. That’s a reasonable-enough commitment for the Parra of old, but he posted a 65 OPS+ in an injury-marred 2016 — which followed up a disappointing second-half run with the Orioles in 2015.

Dahl, meanwhile, only debuted last year, and seems much more likely to represent a foundational piece in Colorado than trade fodder. He spent most of his time in the minors in center field, and appeared a few times there last year, so could potentially step in for Blackmon rather than occupying a corner spot. Certainly, trading him now wouldn’t make a whole lot of sense for a team with limited willingness to spend. His development, following numerous other success stories on the position player side, demonstrates that the Rockies may be well-situated to ship out position players who are closer to free agency in exchange for pitching, as they did last year with Corey Dickerson. The team has struggled to attract free agent arms (or, at least in the past, to develop their own) even as they churn out quality bats.

Dealing Gonzalez or Blackmon would hold out the promise not only of opening some salary, but also of bringing back some interesting pieces in return. The Rockies are always hunting for pitching, of course. Even if the team is in better shape in the rotation than it has been in years, there’s room to add there. And the bullpen remains an area of concern. Plus, Colorado has needs behind the plate and at first base that could be addressed.

So, let’s put it to a vote … should the Rockies pursue a trade of an outfielder, and if so which one? (Link for mobile users.)

MLBTR Poll: Top Prospect Heading Into 2017

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It’s always interesting to see who is tabbed as the game’s next great prospect. Some make it, others don’t, but the number one prospect tag remains a nice prize for a pre-MLB player. There’s no clear candidate for that lofty position heading into the 2017 season, so it’s particularly interesting to see where the MLBTR readership sees things heading.

Prospect eligibility is an essentially arbitrary matter, but we’ll draw the line at 100 plate appearances or 50 innings pitched. That takes players like Trea Turner, Andrew Benintendi, Julio Urias, Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, Orlando Arcia, Joey Gallo, Jose Berrios, and David Dahl out of consideration for our purposes. Many or all of them have largely earned MLB spots for 2017 regardless.

As a guide in putting together a list of candidates, I’ve drawn from the most recent rankings of MLB.com, Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus. There’s a range of opinion, and they also haven’t been updated to reflect late-season observations.

It may be a shade premature to assess the top prospect, so you can consider this something of a predictive undertaking — which is what prospects are all about anyway. Here are the candidates for the poll:

  • Yoan Moncada, INF, Red Sox — Moncada has all the tools, and had a highly impressive year in the minors in 2016. He draws walks, but also has plenty of swing and miss — which was on display in his brief MLB cameo (12 strikeouts in 20 plate appearances).
  • J.P. Crawford, SS, Phillies — A premium defender at shortstop and reputedly polished hitter, Crawford holds out the promise of being an everyday mainstay in Philly even though he doesn’t figure to post massive home run or stolen base tallies. Crawford still needs to master Triple-A and is coming off of a minor knee surgery.
  • Lucas Giolito, SP, Nationals — There have been some ups and downs for the big righty, who struggled rather notably in 21 1/3 major league frames last year. But he’s just 22, turned in 115 1/3 innings of 2.97 ERA pitching with 9.1 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in the minors last year, and has the kind of arsenal that leaves prospect hounds tabbing him for a limitless ceiling.
  • Brendan Rodgers, SS, Rockies — The least-experienced players in this stratosphere, Rodgers showed immense potential at the Class A level last year in his first full season of pro ball. The 20-year-old slashed .281/.342/.480 with 19 home runs over 491 plate appearances.
  • Alex Reyes, SP, Cardinals — Reyes didn’t produce great results at Triple-A last year, continuing to mix high strikeout rates with high walk rates, but exploded in 46 MLB frames. He continued to show questionable command, but racked up 52 strikeouts and allowed just eight earned runs on 33 hits.
  • Tyler Glasnow, SP, Pirates — Another power starter whose command is the major question, Glasnow was unhittable in the upper minors (69 knocks in 116 2/3 innings). He showed both the good and the bad in 23 1/3 big league innings, with 11 earned runs crossing and a 24:13 K/BB ratio.
  • Austin Meadows, OF, Pirates — The 21-year-old stalled out a bit at the highest level of the minors after dominating at Double-A, but delivered 48 extra-base hits over 352 plate appearances on the year. Just 21 years old, Meadows could soon push the Bucs to make some difficult decisions in their outfield.
  • Amed Rosario, SS, Mets — Rosario reached Double-A in the middle of 2016 at just 20 years of age, and delivered a .341/.392/.481 slash over 237 plate appearances — though his .433 BABIP indicated both hard contact and some good fortune. Like Crawford, he probably won’t ever wow with counting stats, but projects as a strong defender at a premium position who can provide useful offensive production when he reaches the majors.
  • Victor Robles, OF, Nationals — Just 19, Robles is considered a true five-tool prospect with the makeup to match. He has shot up prospect charts while climbing the system, though a hand injury slowed him and he cooled off at the High-A level. While his upside is tremendous, Robles still has yet to grow into his power potential and has yet to face polished pitching in the upper minors.
  • Other — There are a host of others who could conceivably enter the discussion. Brewers outfielder Lewis Brinson has a monster ceiling, Braves infielder Ozzie Albies could provide immense all-around value, and Padres righty Anderson Espinoza has shown huge gifts for his age — just to name a few.

Weigh in here: who’s the single best prospect in the game as 2017 beckons? (Link for app users; responses are randomized.)

Should The Orioles Give Matt Wieters A Qualifying Offer?

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Forty-nine weeks ago, Matt Wieters became the second player to ever accept a qualifying offer from his team (following Colby Rasmus, who accepted a day prior). The move came as somewhat of a surprise at the time, as despite a lackluster season that was slowed by injuries, Wieters was poised to hit the market as the top available catcher. The former No. 5 overall pick and agent Scott Boras elected to instead take a one-year, $15.8MM offer, however, which afforded Wieters with the chance to further reestablish his health. While he succeeded in that effort to some extent, the 2016 season came with mixed results overall.

Matt Wieters

Wieters, 31 next May, tallied 464 plate appearances over the life of 124 games. While that’s a low total relative to his most durable years, the Orioles shielded Wieters early in the season from playing on consecutive days and were cautious in building him to the point where he would even catch on three consecutive days. Wieters did just so for the first time this past season in June, and by September he’d built up to the point that he at one point drew starts behind the plate on six consecutive days. In that regard, Wieters was able to demonstrate that he’s physically capable of handling a notable workload behind the plate — something he was unable to show in 2016 when he caught back-to-back games on just four occasions. Certainly that show of durability improves his free agent stock this winter.

On the other hand, Wieters’ overall production at the plate deteriorated this season. He saw his average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage all decrease along with his walk rate, and while he improved his strikeout rate from 23.8 percent to 18.3 percent, Wieters also nearly doubled his infield-fly rate. After popping up just four times in 282 PAs last year, Wieters popped out 17 times in this year’s 464 PAs — and those infield flies are every bit as detrimental as a strikeout, as they’re effectively a wasted at-bat and a guaranteed out. Park-adjusted metrics OPS+ and wRC+ agreed last season that Wieters’ bat was roughly league average (101 — or one percent above the league average), whereas this season he was markedly below the league average (88 wRC+, 87 OPS+ or 12 and 13 percent below average, respectively). He did belt 17 home runs, but he hit just 17 doubles and overall managed a pedestrian .243/.302/.409 batting line. That’s about league average for a catcher, but as noted before, it’s a far cry from average relative to the entire league.

On the defensive side of things, Wieters threw out 35 percent of opponents trying to steal against the Orioles’ pitching staff while he was behind the plate — an encouraging outcome for a catcher that had Tommy John surgery in 2014 and dealt with elbow tendinitis last year — but he once again drew poor marks in the eyes of pitch framing metrics. Baseball Prospectus rated him as below average in that regard for the fourth consecutive season, while StatCorner.com has been giving Wieters a below-average framing grade for five straight years.

Wieters has accepted a qualifying offer once before and would bring his two-year tab with the Orioles from 2016-17 to $33MM if he received and accepted another this year. That’s certainly nothing to scoff at, but if Boras and Wieters feel that the improved durability in 2016 will lead to a multi-year deal on the open market, then they’ll surely think he can earn more. And, the fact that Wilson Ramos suffered a horribly timed knee injury that will weigh down his free-agent stock only makes Wieters look more appealing relative to the remainder of the market. In that respect, it’s easy to see why the Orioles might feel comfortable making the offer.

The other side of the coin for the O’s, though, is that they opened the 2016 season with a franchise-record $147MM payroll and currently project to have an even larger $155MM payroll next season, as Jason Martinez lays out on the Orioles’ payroll page over at Roster Resource. That figure doesn’t include Wieters at all, so penciling him in at an additional $17.2MM would cause the team’s projected payroll to balloon to $172.2MM next season before even addressing any of the other needs that face the Orioles’ roster — namely adding some rotation help and a corner outfielder. Considering the fact that Wieters has already surprised the team by accepting once before, Orioles GM Dan Duquette may not wish to make that kind of gamble a second time.

There’s an argument to be made for either side, so let’s open this one up to the public for debate (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…


Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Should The Brewers Tender Chris Carter?

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That the Brewers should tender a contract to slugging first baseman Chris Carter seems, at first, to be obvious. After being non-tendered by the Astros last offseason, Carter signed a one-year, $2.5MM contract with Milwaukee, then tied Nolan Arenado for the NL home-run crown, with a career-high 41. Now Carter has 4.159 years of service time, and the Brewers are faced with a decision. Surely it would be ridiculous for them to non-tender him, right?

Chris CarterWell, maybe not. MLBTR projects that Carter will get a very significant bump in salary next year, making $8.1MM through arbitration. While that’s not an astronomical figure, it is high for a one-dimensional player. As MLBTR’s Matt Swartz points out, hitters’ salaries during their arbitration seasons are typically evaluated by batting average, home runs, RBIs, stolen bases and plate appearances. Carter has never hit well for average or stolen many bases, but he fared very well last season in the other three categories, also amassing 94 RBIs and 644 PAs. In arbitration, counting stats are what matter most, and Carter’s are impressive. In addition, the relative defensive value of a shortstop, say, as compared to a first baseman is not as important in arbitration as it would be on the free agent market. That factor also favors Carter, should the Brewers tender him.

As a result, the amount the Brewers will have to pay Carter through the arbitration process could approach or exceed his actual value. The arbitration process won’t penalize Carter much for his consistently mediocre on-base percentages (.321 this season, .314 career) or his below-average defense at first base (-5.2 UZR in 2016). Via FanGraphs, Carter’s 41-homer 2016 season was worth just 0.9 wins above replacement, largely due to those factors. Also via FanGraphs, the dollar value of that 0.9-WAR season was just $7.1MM, below the $8.1MM he’d likely receive next year through the arb process.

In fact, Carter has only produced more than 1 fWAR twice in his career, thanks to his lack of defensive value and his exorbitant strikeout totals, which prevent him from reaching base. He whiffed 206 times in 2016, and that wasn’t even his career high in that category. Carter was non-tendered last offseason after totaling 90 home runs in the three previous years, even though his salary would only have been a projected $5.6MM. After hitting the open market, he ultimately made less than half that. He would have been worth the $5.6MM in 2016, but neither the Astros nor the free agent market seemed exuberant about his value. That’s worth considering this time around.

It perhaps makes sense, then, that the Brewers appear to be at least considering non-tendering Carter. Today’s Knuckleball’s Jon Heyman reported two weeks ago that the team had a tough decision on its hands, although GM David Stearns had previously indicated Carter would return.

Then again, 41 home runs is 41 home runs, and perhaps we’re overthinking it. One would imagine that, at the very least, Carter would have value in the right context. Pedro Alvarez, who’s left-handed but has many of the same strengths and weaknesses as Carter, got a $5.8MM deal last offseason but produced $9MM in value for the Orioles, generally playing DH. And another whiff-prone, defensively challenged Orioles slugger, Mark Trumbo, got $9.2MM but produced $17.3MM in value.

Also, the Brewers don’t have that much to lose by tendering Carter. They only have two players — Ryan Braun and Matt Garza — under contract for next season, and don’t project to have a high payroll (particularly since Braun is a trade candidate anyway). They can afford Carter. Also, Carter isn’t blocking anyone who would greatly benefit from his playing time. If Carter has another NL-leading home run season, he could perhaps land the Brewers a prospect or two at the trade deadline, or maybe even next offseason, since he’ll still have another year before free agency eligibility. (It should be noted, though, that his projected 2018 salary will be very high if he hits well next season.) There’s also the possibility that some power-starved team could overpay for Carter, given his unique skill set. The Brewers could even tender Carter and then attempt to deal him this winter, if there’s a market.

Perhaps, then, this is much ado about nothing. Tendering Carter seems like the obvious course of action, and perhaps that’s the one the Brewers will take. It’s a decision worthy of serious thought, however. What do you think?

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: What Should The Rangers Do With Joey Gallo?

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In a piece today, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News calls upon the Rangers to commit to a path with young slugger Joey Gallo this winter. It’s a major question for Texas, with several possible strategies, so it seems worth posing the matter to MLBTR’s readers.

Though he’s still just 22 years of age, and continues to carry jaw-dropping power potential, Gallo wasn’t deemed worthy of a significant chance at major league action last year. He ultimately struck out 19 times and recorded just one hit in thirty MLB plate appearances scattered over 17 games. But Gallo continued to thrive at Triple-A, where he banged out 25 home runs and posted a .240/.367/.529 slash over 433 plate appearances.

The biggest question mark on Gallo remains the strikeouts. He walks quite a bit — 15.7% over his Triple-A season and 13.1% over his 153 MLB plate appearances — so it’s not as if he lacks for zone awareness. But Gallo has also struck out in just under half of his trips to the plate in his brief time in the majors while swinging through 22.5% of the pitches he offered at. (Khris Davis was worst among qualified MLB hitters last year with 16.6%.) And while Gallo trimmed his K rate a bit at the highest level of the minors in 2016, he faded after a promising start in that regard and still ended up going down on strikes 34.6% of the time.

While Texas can still option Gallo, the team faces the proposition of filling in two primary power spots in its lineup. Mitch Moreland is set to vacate first base via free agency, with Grant suggesting he won’t likely be pursued by the Rangers. And the team is also bidding adieu to DH candidate Carlos Beltran, who was acquired in the aftermath of Prince Fielder’s injury-induced retirement. With other positions also in need of solutions, Texas probably can’t afford to spend big on two bats to step into these openings.

Grant suggests that Texas could look to bring in free agent first baseman Mike Napoli for a third go with the organization. The right swinger is capable of playing first and would complement the left-handed-hitting Gallo. Alternatively, the club could look elsewhere, possibly attempting to re-sign Beltran — a switch-hitter who has logged all of five career innings at first base. Either way, that kind of addition would leave the team reliant upon Gallo, unless he is paired with another righty bat in some kind of DH platoon.

There are several other possible routes to consider, it seems. With a rather robust group of slugging types available this winter, the Rangers could add two lesser-priced bats and try to cash Gallo in to address another need. As Grant writes, though, his difficulties in turning the corner may make it hard for the team to cash Gallo in for a starting pitcher good enough to punt on his upside. He might also be used in some kind of platoon role — with players like Ryan Rua and Jurickson Profar representing possible mates. And it’s certainly possible that Gallo could be sent back to Triple-A, but that would represent his third consecutive year at that level and would add to the payroll and roster pressures.

While the Rangers will get to watch Gallo play in Venezuelan winter ball action, and can to some extent delay final decisions until the spring, the organization largely knows the state of play and will need to chart a course for the winter market. What’s the best course of action?

 

Free Agency Poll: Aroldis Chapman Or Kenley Jansen?

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This year’s NLCS between the Cubs and Dodgers is underway, and electrifying closers Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen figure to be among the series’ most important players. That was already the case for the two teams in the NLDS, when Chapman saved all three of the Cubs’ wins over the Giants – including two one-run affairs – and blew a save in Chicago’s only loss. Jansen had an ugly Game 2 showing against the Nationals, but he was otherwise tremendous, racking up saves in a pair of one-run contests before his all-important hold in a memorable Game 5. Jansen entered in the seventh inning Thursday and tossed 2 1/3 frames of 51-pitch, one-hit ball to preserve a 4-3 lead, which ace Clayton Kershaw closed out by retiring back-to-back hitters in the ninth.

One of Chapman or Jansen could very well secure the final out of this year’s World Series, after which the late-game aces are scheduled to become free agents. Given both their dominance and the ever-increasing importance of bullpens, Chapman and Jansen are in line to score the most valuable contracts ever awarded to relievers. The four-year, $50MM contract Jonathan Papelbon signed with the Phillies in 2011 is the record, but that deal’s days at the top are numbered. Now it’s a matter of figuring out whether Chapman or Jansen will land the richer pact.

The two will play their age-29 seasons in 2017, and their results have been similarly excellent since they debuted in 2011. In 377 combined innings with the Reds, Yankees and Cubs, Chapman has a 2.08 ERA, 15.18 K/9, 4.13 BB/9, 42.3 percent ground-ball rate, 12.8 infield pop-up percentage and 17.7 percent swinging strike mark. Across 408 2/3 frames with the Dodgers, Jansen has posted a 2.20 ERA, 13.92 K/9 and 2.62 BB/9 with a worse ground-ball and swinging strike percentages than Chapman (33.4 and 15.7), though he does have the superior infield fly rate (13.8). In terms of their ability to finish games, Chapman has a nearly 90 percent success rate (182 saves in 203 chances), while Jansen has converted more than 88 percent of his save chances (189 of 214).

There aren’t notable differences in their age or career outputs, though Chapman and Jansen do diverge in certain areas. Chapman is a left-hander and Jansen a righty, for starters. With the ability to occasionally hit 105 mph on the radar gun, Chapman is the hardest thrower in baseball, but Jansen can offer a lethal 98 mph cutter. Also of importance, there are no off-the-field red flags with Jansen. That isn’t true in Chapman’s case

Chapman was on track last offseason to join Jansen in the Dodgers’ bullpen, but a trade between them and the Reds fell through amid domestic violence claims. Chapman was alleged to have struck his girlfriend and discharged a firearm while alone in his garage last October. Criminal charges were never filed, so Chapman did not face a trial. Nevertheless, the league did suspend him for the first month of the season, and it’s conceivable that such a serious incident could damage Chapman’s earning power as a free agent. On the other hand, contenders lined up to acquire Chapman from the Yankees at this year’s trade deadline, and the Cubs eventually surrendered one of baseball’s top prospects – shortstop Gleyber Torres – in a package for him.

The fact that Chapman switched teams during the season means he’ll be ineligible to receive a qualifying offer, which will only boost his stock. The Dodgers will surely tender a QO to Jansen, meaning another club that signs him would have to give up a first-round pick in addition to the enormous contract it awards him. With other high-payroll teams like the Yankees, Giants and Nationals perhaps set to accompany the big-spending Cubs and Dodgers in the sweepstakes for Chapman and Jansen, they’re clearly going to earn sizable raises during the offseason. But which one will fare better on the open market?

(Poll link for Trade Rumors app users)

Poll: Should The Blue Jays Issue Jose Bautista A Qualifying Offer?

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Like the other seven major league teams currently in the postseason, the Blue Jays are trying to fight their way to a World Series title. But regardless of whether Toronto’s season ends with a championship, the club will have decisions to make on two franchise icons in the coming weeks. As soon-to-be free agents, designated hitter/first baseman Edwin Encarnacion and right fielder/DH Jose Bautista could depart Canada after the season. If the Blue Jays aren’t able to strike new deals with either, the team could receive a first-round pick as compensation for each if it tenders them one-year, $16.7MM qualifying offers (assuming the QO system remains in place).

Encarnacion is a shoo-in to land an offer, but Bautista’s case looks somewhat less certain than it did coming into the season. At that point, Bautista was fresh off six straight excellent campaigns dating back to his stunning breakout in 2010. Between then and 2015, Bautista combined to slash a superb .268/.390/.555 in 3,604 plate appearances. Along the way, he accounted for 32.5 fWAR – the majors’ fifth-highest total among position players – walked almost as much as he struck out (15.9 percent to 16.0 percent), hit 28 more home runs (227) than his nearest competitor, Miguel Cabrera, and posted a .287 ISO. That elite-level performance reportedly had Bautista in search of a massive contract last winter, but a decline in output has likely hurt his earning power since.

Bautista was on the disabled list twice during the regular season, and in the 116 games he did play, he wasn’t the all-world offensive threat he had been during the previous six years. By no means was Bautista’s production at the plate subpar, however, as he still batted a more-than-respectable .234/.366/.452 with 22 homers and a .217 ISO in 517 PAs. He also continued controlling the strike zone, albeit not as well as he did in prior seasons, with 87 walks against 103 strikeouts. With his below-average defense and baserunning factored in, Bautista was worth just 1.5 fWAR this year – his lowest total since 2008, when he was toiling in anonymity.

Bautista’s down season would be less alarming if he weren’t about to turn 36, which could scare off the Blue Jays or other teams when the time comes to hand him a lucrative multiyear contract. Not only that, but Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe suggested Sunday that Toronto might not issue Bautista a qualifying offer because of fear that he could accept it. In response, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk argued that, given Bautista’s track record, the Jays would welcome him back for 2017 at a $16.7MM price tag. He also pointed out that Bautista is in the midst of another quality playoff showing, having already smashed three homers this postseason for a club that could advance to its second straight ALCS tonight.

I’m in the same camp as Mark regarding Bautista, but what do you think?

Poll: Should MLB Change September Roster Expansion Rules?

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Earlier this week, former Rockies outfielder Ryan Spilborghs penned a guest piece for MLBTR in which he offered a former player’s take on the September expansion of MLB active rosters from 25 to 40. Spilborghs’ opinion was a nuanced one, but he noted that most coaches and players intensely dislike roster expansion, noting that it slows the pace of games and prevents MLB role players from getting playing time.

Roster expansion rules have come in for criticism with beat writers recently as well, due in part to the long game times and frequent pitching changes that now seem so characteristic of late-season baseball. Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer, for example, described a recent Phillies/Mets series as “a perverted type of baseball,” noting that one game took nearly four hours and featured 38 players, including two relievers who had pitched not at all, or close to not at all, in the previous two weeks. Those sorts of figures are, unfortunately, quite common in September, as contenders and non-contenders alike attempt to outmaneuver one another with seemingly limitless situational matchups.

“Let’s put it this way: That’s the thing about September,” said Phillies manager Pete Mackanin, via Gelb. “They have a lefty for every righty I bring in and vice versa. That’s what makes it so difficult. There’s no moves you can make that can’t be countered. So, what are you going to do?”

Gelb notes that September roster expansion could be part of this winter’s round of CBA negotiations. One possible solution would be a rule that allows teams to expand their active rosters in September, as they do now, but to declare a 25-man roster for each game. Such a rule might somewhat limit substitutions and pitching changes, thereby reducing game times, although it would do little to address Spilborghs’ concern about veteran role players losing out on playing time.

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred, for his part, agrees that roster expansion rules should be reformed. “I’m not looking to take away service time or anything like that, but I do think it would make sense to get to a situation where we played out September games closer to the rules that we play with the rest of the year,” he says. “I don’t think 18 pitchers in a game is a good thing.”

Of course, the benefits of expanded rosters are almost as easy to see as the drawbacks. Young players, particularly those on non-contending teams, can get their first tastes of big-league action, while managers and executives are more easily able to watch their young players against top competition. Also, the sheer number of bodies available helps teams get to the end of a lengthy 162-game season, by which point many established players are struggling with nagging injuries.

So what should MLB do about roster expansion? We’ll begin with a simple poll question about whether the rules should change. If you have a suggestion for how the rules should change, share it in the comments.

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