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MLBTR Poll: Grading Recent Extensions

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As usual, the offseason has brought a few fairly significant long-term deals. Though we haven’t seen any nine-figure strikes — yet, at least — teams have staked a variety of interesting long-term bets on players who weren’t particularly close to free agency.

Since the start of February, in particular, three players with multiple years of control remaining have received guarantees that secure their financial future. But how wise were these investments? While it’s easy to like most early-career extensions — they are typically reached with young players who have played well at the game’s highest level, after all — they don’t all work out. The budgetary impact will never be as large as a pact to keep a top star off the market (or to bring one in), but even these early-career deals turn non-obligatory control rights into massive financial commitments that can hinder organizational flexibility.

Here are the most recent deals, with polls for each asking you to grade the merit of the investment:

Carlos Martinez, SP, Cardinals: five years, $51MM with two options ($17MM, $18MM): The first-time arb-eligible righty could be on the cusp of blooming into an established, top-of-the-rotation arm at 25 years of age. This deal extends the club’s control span over Martinez by four years, so there’s clear upside here. But it also comes with a hefty up-front promise and passes the risks inherent to pitching on to the Cards. The closest comp to this agreement, Matt Harrison’s $55MM deal with the Rangers, shows that there’s downside as well.

(Poll link for app users.)

How would you grade the Cardinals' extension of Carlos Martinez?
A 54.78% (2,430 votes)
B 32.71% (1,451 votes)
C 8.25% (366 votes)
F 2.34% (104 votes)
D 1.92% (85 votes)
Total Votes: 4,436

Kevin Kiermaier, CF, Rays: six years, $53.5MM with one option ($13MM): Kiermaier was a Super Two player, so this deal boosts Tampa Bay’s control by three seasons. Only one of those is left to the team’s discretion, leaving the organization fairly firmly committed to the defensive whiz. While his glove gives him a lofty floor, that’s also dependent upon maintained athleticism. And Kiermaier hasn’t yet shown he’s more than an average hitter. If he can do that and keep tracking down just about everything hit in his general direction, he could be a star.

(Poll link for app users.)

How would you grade the Rays' extension of Kevin Kiermaier?
B 37.73% (1,575 votes)
A 31.58% (1,318 votes)
C 22.71% (948 votes)
D 5.39% (225 votes)
F 2.59% (108 votes)
Total Votes: 4,174

Tim Anderson, SS, White Sox: six years, $25MM with two options ($12.5MM, $14MM): Announced just yesterday, this deal is quite a bit different than the others. Anderson hasn’t even completed a full season in the majors, and remains a highly variable player despite the evident talent. Understandably, he could only secure about half the guarantee of the other players, though he did easily beat the prior record for a sub-1 MLB service extension (Chris Archer, $20MM). Notably, this contract only promises to pay Anderson through his arbitration-eligible seasons (assuming he’s able to remain in the majors from this point forward), meaning the South Siders only extended their control rights by two years but also didn’t have to promise to pay Anderson too far out.

(Poll link for app users.)

How would you grade the White Sox' extension of Tim Anderson?
A 33.94% (1,478 votes)
B 28.43% (1,238 votes)
C 24.89% (1,084 votes)
D 8.54% (372 votes)
F 4.20% (183 votes)
Total Votes: 4,355

MLBTR Poll: Top 2017-18 Free-Agent Starter?

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MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes just released the first run of his 2017-18 free-agent power rankings. While the list will obviously change quite a bit over the course of the season to come, it’s interesting to note that four outstanding pitchers open up at the front.

Really, every member of this impressive group of veteran starters could realistically end up on top of the list by season’s end (as could a few other players). Tim has already stated his views on the preliminary ordering; now it’s time for MLBTR’s readership to weigh in.

Here are the four hurlers, in Tim’s order, with a brief affirmative case for why each ought to be considered the frontrunner to become the best free-agent starter:

Jake Arrieta, Cubs: None of the other pitchers has done what Arrieta did in 2015, when he posted a 1.77 ERA over 229 innings and took the Cy Young over two outstanding competitors. While he showed some worrying signs over the second half last year, he’s still throwing premium stuff and has been a workhorse of late.

Yu Darvish, Rangers: If one of these hurlers can be said to have the most upside, perhaps it’s Darvish. He paces this group in generating swings and misses and converting those into strikeouts. If he can return to his early-career 200+ inning pace, all bets are off on his earnings.

Johnny Cueto, Giants (can opt out of current contract): Though his long MLB tenure makes it seem as if Cueto is older than the others on this list, that’s not really the case; he’s only 19 days senior to Arrieta. And he’s certainly the most accomplished of the group overall, having turned in three seasons of 200+-inning, sub-3.00 ERA ball over the past five years.

Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees: The arm health remains a long-term question, but at what point might Tanaka’s age and consistency push past that consideration? He did manage to turn in 199 2/3 frames last year, after all, and will pitch the entire 2017 season at 28 years of age. Over his 490 total MLB frames, Tanaka owns a strong 3.12 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and just 1.5 BB/9.

So, which of these hurlers do you see ending the year with the best free-agent case? (Link for app users.)

Which Pitcher Is Likely To End Up As The Top 2017-18 Free Agent?
Jake Arrieta 44.48% (2,504 votes)
Yu Darvish 30.25% (1,703 votes)
Johnny Cueto 15.47% (871 votes)
Masahiro Tanaka 9.80% (552 votes)
Total Votes: 5,630

MLBTR Poll: Who’ll Sign Doug Fister?

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Needless to say, veteran righty Doug Fister didn’t have the platform year he hoped for. He managed only a 4.64 ERA with 5.7 K/9 and an uncharacteristically high 3.1 BB/9 last year for the Astros. He also hasn’t quite maintained his once-excellent groundball induction rates. But he did turn in 32 starts, and provide 180 1/3 innings, after two straight seasons in which he faced some limitations. And he was also able to boost his velocity somewhat; though it still fell shy of his already-low career peak, at least Fister showed that he wasn’t set to fall off a cliff in the velo department.

All in all, the table seemed to be set for another pillow contract. After all, though he also produced uninspiring results in 2015, Fister landed in the top ten of the National League Cy Young voting in the season prior. From the start of his career in 2009, though that top-quality 2014 campaign, Fister had contribute nearly one thousand innings of 3.34 ERA pitching. The track record, in other words, still seems good enough to warrant a major league opportunity.

Still, business has been slow all winter for the 6’8 right-hander. There was chatter at times about teams with interest — the Marlins, Pirates, Mariners, Padres, and Royals all reportedly had some connection to Fister — though momentum never seemed to develop. AteR this point, it’s not even clear whether he has received any MLB offers, let alone whether there’d still be one available now, with camp well underway.

Unless there’s some unreported inkling of retirement, it still seems likely that Fister will land somewhere over the next few weeks. Perhaps he’s waiting to see whether a golden opportunity develops due to injury; perhaps he’s still hoping a team steps forward with an appealing guarantee.

Let’s see what the MLBTR readership thinks about how things will shake out. In lining up the best suitors for a poll, we’ll assume that Fister is looking for a clear rotation spot and we won’t guess at any new injuries. Here goes (in alphabetical order):

Padres — While the team has added several veteran hurlers already, and proceeded to sign Jered Weaver after the point of the reported interest in Fister, that doesn’t mean there isn’t a possible fit. If nothing else, it’d be interesting to see the club fill its staff out entirely with free agents signed to one year deals. At this point, the interest level likely comes down to whether the team has enough interest in giving a shot to an in-house option such as Christian Friedrich, Tyrell Jenkins, or Zach Lee.

Reds — Likewise, though Cincinnati is said to be finished giving out MLB deals, this rotation won’t be finished until the deadline for submitting Opening Day rosters … and will likely change quite a bit thereafter. There’s arguably greater uncertainty in the Reds’ staff than even the Padres’ at this stage, with pitchers such as Tim Adleman, Robert Stephenson, and a variety of other younger pitchers duking it out with grizzled veteran Bronson Arroyo to establish places in the pecking order. At least two spots seem up for grabs; if the Reds don’t feel comfortable with any of their internal possibilities, it’s easy to imagine a pivot to Fister.

Pirates — This seems fairly unlikely, but perhaps there’s some daylight still for the Bucs to take on their latest reclamation project. There’s probably a reason it hasn’t happened already, but Pittsburgh could perhaps still reconsider the options on hand. Drew Hutchison has hardly guranteed himself a roster spot based on his recent track record, and the organization’s series of promising youngsters — highlighted by Tyler Glasnow — might be deemed best kept at Triple-A to open the season.

Rangers — Similarly, it’s a bit of a strain to see the Rangers lining up with Fister at this point. The club already added Andrew Cashner and the recovering Tyson Ross to join A.J. Griffin in the mix at the back of the rotation. But Cashner has experienced biceps soreness while Griffin has struggled early in camp, and it’s not clear whether the team wants to rely too much on Dillon Gee (who had offseason surgery) or one of its unestablished youngsters. That leaves a bit of room to imagine something coming together on Fister, though perhaps the Rangers would first consider the familiar Colby Lewis.

Rockies — Colorado doesn’t seem inclined to pursue an alternative route, but the organization remains hard to predict from the outside. Fister could make a great deal of sense, if the Rox come to believe that none of their top young arms — primarily, Jeff Hoffman, but also German Marquez or Kyle Freeland — is prepared to be leaned upon for the span of the season. If that’s the case, and Jordan Lyles isn’t deemed an adequate fill-in, then perhaps the towering sinkerballer could make sense.

Yankees — The Yanks might make better sense than any other team in baseball, if the team has some added funds to spare. With two rotation spots up for grabs, the club is hardly in sure hands. Adam Warren is a veteran option, but hasn’t had much recent success, while Luis Severino has gobs of talent but struggled last year. Other options — Chad Green, Luis Cessa, and Bryan Mitchell — have hardly staked obvious claims to a starting gig. With that much uncertainty, bringing on an established veteran could add some stability while also deepening the overall unit entering the season.

It’s certainly possible to imagine other teams — say, the Tigers, White Sox, Angels, Twins, Athletics, Brewers, Phillies, or Red Sox — emerging with interest.But in each of those cases, I think, it would likely require an injury or a major change of heart on an internal option to lead to an agreement. Certainly, there would be others if Fister is willing to head to the pen to function as a swingman. So, that’s my list, but feel free to debate alternatives in the comments.

Where do you think Fister will end up? (Link for app users.)

Who'll Sign Doug Fister?
Other 32.21% (1,840 votes)
Yankees 23.32% (1,332 votes)
Padres 12.17% (695 votes)
Pirates 10.78% (616 votes)
Reds 9.35% (534 votes)
Rangers 6.79% (388 votes)
Rockies 5.39% (308 votes)
Total Votes: 5,713

Possible Landing Spots For Pedro Alvarez

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Lefty slugger Pedro Alvarez is a limited player, but he’s just thirty years of age and is coming off of a season in which he slashed .249/.322/.504 with 22 long balls in just 376 plate appearances. Most of the damage, as usual, came against righty pitching. And Alvarez is best kept away from a fielding glove (though he did see time last year at third base). But he has actually generated positive baserunning ratings of late, and the overall package still makes him a potent DH option and bench bat — the same basic formula that landed him a $5.75MM contract last year from the Orioles.

On the one hand, we’ve seen other such hitters fall shy of expectations. Adam Lind, for example, took just $1.5MM from the Nationals. And older lefty sluggers such as Ryan Howard and Justin Morneau also remain available. (The right-handed Billy Butler, among others, also has yet to sign.) Of course, it’s easy to forget that Alvarez waited until March to sign last year, so perhaps it’d be unwise to count out agent Scott Boras’s ability to find money when it’s least expected.

As team sort through their internal options, perhaps an injury or renewed assessment could turn the tide for Alvarez. While it would be foolish to overstate his impact at this stage — he’s no longer an everyday third baseman who can provide over thirty long balls — there’s little reason to think that Alvarez isn’t a useful MLB player. And the fact that he can still handle third base in a pinch doesn’t hurt.

Here are seven landing spots that make some degree of sense; weigh in with your pick in the poll below.

  • White Sox [Current Depth Chart] — Chicago currently projects to have quite an unproven MLB roster on Opening Day, and yet more holes could open if the club pulls off a spring trade or two. Unless the team shifts Melky Cabrera to the DH hole, that spot is wide open at present. Adding the veteran hitter might help keep fans in the seats and ease the transition that the club is overseeing.
  • Twins [Current Depth Chart] — Though Kennys Vargas, Byung Ho Park, and Robbie Grossman currently factor in the picture as DH candidates in Minnesota, there has been some rumored interest — though there are also indications that it’s overstated. The Twins do have good reason to see what they have in that trio, though perhaps the club could also see the merit in adding a proven slugger to the stable.
  • Rangers [Current Depth Chart] — If we suppose that Shin-soo Choo is still deemed capable of playing the outfield without yet another injury, and that Texas still isn’t sold on Joey Gallo, then perhaps there’s still some room for Alvarez on the roster. Alvarez’s camp reportedly tried to get the Rangers to bite before they added Mike Napoli, but it’s not clear whether the interest as reciprocated.
  • Athletics [Current Depth Chart] — Catcher Steven Vogt and first baseman Yonder Alonso both hit from the left side, and each could spend time at DH, but adding Alvarez would give the team another weapon against righties. Even if power prospect Ryon Healy is on the roster, the right-handed hitter would still have plenty of opportunities at the corner infield spots as well as the DH hole.
  • Orioles [Current Depth Chart] — It’s a bit of a stretch at this point, but if Baltimore is willing to give Mark Trumbo time in right field, Alvarez could make a return. That’d likely mean punting on Rule 5 picks Anthony Santander and Aneury Tavarez, and perhaps passing over a third lefty hitting outfielder in Michael Bourn, but the O’s have not shied away from loading up on sluggers in recent years.
  • Mariners [Current Depth Chart] — This really comes down to one question: does Seattle fully believe in Dan Vogelbach? The young southpaw slugger is slated to battle for playing time with Danny Valencia at first base, but if the M’s feel he’s not quite ready to handle a significant load in the majors, then perhaps they could pivot to Alvarez.
  • Phillies [Current Depth Chart] — If there’s a National League team that could make some sense, it’s probably the Phils. While they’d like to see what Tommy Joseph can do at first, he’s hardly a slam dunk and currently lacks a platoon partner. The rebuilding club could split time there and perhaps see if Alvarez becomes a deadline trade chip.

Which team do you think will sign Alvarez? (Link for app users.)

Who'll Sign Pedro Alvarez?
White Sox 19.40% (1,437 votes)
Other (American League) 18.70% (1,385 votes)
Athletics 13.15% (974 votes)
Orioles 10.61% (786 votes)
Phillies 10.50% (778 votes)
Mariners 8.29% (614 votes)
Other (National League) 6.78% (502 votes)
Twins 6.55% (485 votes)
Rangers 6.02% (446 votes)
Total Votes: 7,407

MLBTR Poll: Assessing The Matt Wieters Deal

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While the deal is still awaiting a physical to be finalized, we learned yesterday that the Nationals had agreed to a two-year, $21MM pact with Matt Wieters that also allows him to opt out of the second season (and second $10.5MM payday). As the Nationals wrap up that move, and begin looking ahead to perhaps one more roster tweak to come, it seemed like an opportune time to take two quick polls.

By most accounts, the Nats paid less than Wieters was expected to earn entering the winter. Despite lower-than-expected demand, there were other suitors still in play, so perhaps also the deal reflects a still-active market. And in the final analysis, it’s an objectively reasonable price tag that reflects Wieters’s abilities but also his limitations.

Still, market-value deals often make more sense for some teams than others. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs isn’t sold that the Nats were the right team to make a play for Wieters, given the presence of Derek Norris, Jose Lobaton, and Pedro Severino. On the other hand, there may well be other considerations — the front office’s assessment of Wieters’s pitcher-handling and pitch-calling abilities, a scouting assessment of his hitting, etc. — that could impact the analysis. (There’s plenty more discussion of Wieters’s overall value in the above-linked post on his signing, as well as in Cameron’s piece.)

Then, there’s the question of what the team does next. This signing would look somewhat different if, as various reports have hinted, the team goes on to move Norris (along with his $4.2MM arbitration salary and remaining season of control) as opposed to Lobaton (a lower-upside veteran who is also cheaper at $1.575MM and set for free agency next winter). And it would be another matter entirely if the move was designed in part to free up Severino, who currently features as a part of the organization’s long-term planning at the position, to a acquire a late-inning reliever.

Regardless of what happens with Severino, it’s likely that the team will still need to decide between Norris and Lobaton as a second backstop. Though both Wieters and Lobaton are switch-hitters, the former has thrived traditionally against lefties, while the latter has been better against right-handed pitching. Norris, meanwhile, has wide platoon splits that suggest he’s most effective against southpaws.

Since the Nats’ next step impacts the assessment of the deal with Wieters (assuming it’s finalized), we won’t ask a simple yes/no on whether it’s a good signing. Indeed, there are alternative viewpoints on which ensuing transaction truly matters most in assessing this deal, since it’s reasonable to argue that any trade involving Severino really isn’t dependent upon the addition of another short-term, non-optionable veteran. Instead, then, we’ll ask: how would you characterize the move at this point?

(Link for app users.)

Were The Nationals Wise To Agree To Terms With Matt Wieters?
Yes, he's an upgrade over the existing options regardless of what they do next. 39.31% (2,828 votes)
Only if they trade a catcher for a closer. 27.79% (1,999 votes)
No, they should've kept the Norris-Lobaton pairing. 25.98% (1,869 votes)
Yes, but only if they keep Norris as the reserve. 6.92% (498 votes)
Total Votes: 7,194

MLBTR Poll: Pending Free Agent Extension Candidates

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It’s fairly typical to see several free-agents-to-be strike new contracts with their present organizations during Spring Training (or shortly thereafter). Last year, for instance, we saw Adrian Beltre (Rangers), Stephen Strasburg (Nationals), and Francisco Cervelli (Pirates) land long-term deals at the start of the 2016 season, reflecting negotiations that took place over the winter and, perhaps especially, during camp.

In some cases, the dealmaking can occur quite publicly, even if talks don’t result in an agreement. There were high-profile discussions last winter involving the Blue Jays and veteran sluggers Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. And who can forget the Jon Lester-Red Sox saga of 2014?

I’ve compiled a list of plausible extension candidates for consideration here. There are probably a few others, too, but this group seems to represent the bulk of the possibilities for deals keeping players off of the open market.

Veteran Catchers

Jonathan Lucroy of the Rangers and Yadier Molina of the Cardinals are in very different situations in their respective organizations. Lucroy came to Texas via trade last summer, while Molina is a St. Louis legend. But both appear to be solid extension candidates. The Rangers may look to find some added value in Lucroy, who has been one of the game’s best receivers and doesn’t have a clear replacement behind him. Meanwhile, the Cards will no doubt hope Carson Kelly proves ready to take Molina’s place, but seemingly prefer to keep the veteran around for at least another few years to pass the baton.

[Link for app users]

Which Players Will Likely Reach Extensions?
Molina 46.92% (2,772 votes)
Both 22.66% (1,339 votes)
Lucroy 22.65% (1,338 votes)
Neither 7.77% (459 votes)
Total Votes: 5,908

Core Royals Position Players

First baseman Eric Hosmer, third baseman Mike Moustakas, and center fielder Lorenzo Cain were all key parts of the Royals’ Cinderella story, and all three are looking to bounce back from disappointing 2016 seasons (due to a combination of injury and performance downturns). While some had expected Kansas City to engineer a ramp-down of its veteran obligations — the team did trade away Jarrod Dyson and Wade Davis — the organization already locked up Danny Duffy and seems intent on at least exploring deals with this trio. The focus thus far appears to have been on Hosmer, with the similarly youthful Moustakas perhaps also representing a more obvious target, though it’s possible to imagine any (albeit probably not all) signing on to stay.

[Link for app users]

Which Players Will Likely Reach Extensions?
Hosmer 30.81% (1,483 votes)
Moustakas & Hosmer 17.74% (854 votes)
Hosmer & Cain 14.21% (684 votes)
None 13.53% (651 votes)
Moustakas 8.56% (412 votes)
Moustakas & Cain 5.82% (280 votes)
All Three 5.11% (246 votes)
Cain 4.22% (203 votes)
Total Votes: 4,813

Star Starters

There could be quite a lot of money spent on starting pitching next winter, at least so long as Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish, and Masahiro Tanaka make it through strong seasons and don’t ink deals before reaching free agency. (Tanaka can also opt into the remaining three years and $67MM on his deal, it should be noted, though he’ll undoubtedly give that up so long as he remains healthy and effective.)

There’s a case to be made that none will reach new contracts. It’s far from clear whether the Cubs will pay enough to get Arrieta enough to bite, though talks are planned. Darvish’s injury questions may cloud his candidacy, but he could follow Strasburg in a surprise accord. In some ways, Tanaka represents the best possibility, despite his own elbow issues. He’s just 28, and the team is already bearing some risk over his health due to the opt-out (which really functions as a sizable player option).

[Link for app users]

Which Players Will Likely Reach Extensions?
None 25.21% (1,234 votes)
Arrieta 16.10% (788 votes)
Darvish 13.54% (663 votes)
Tanaka 10.54% (516 votes)
Arrieta & Darvish 10.21% (500 votes)
Darvish & Tanaka 9.89% (484 votes)
All Three 8.01% (392 votes)
Arrieta & Tanaka 6.50% (318 votes)
Total Votes: 4,895

Additional Possibilities

There are a few other players who could be under consideration as well. Neil Walker and the Mets have engaged in talks already, though it seems those could be foundering. Likewise, the Rockies are reportedly interested in discussing a new contract with Carlos Gonzalez. It’s questionable whether that’s a wise course given the team’s robust array of left-handed-hitting outfielders and Gonzalez’s own injury-related downturn in recent years, but he’s a star player who could still hold appeal to the Colorado organization. And perhaps there’s also a chance that the Indians look at a contract for Carlos Santana, though the presence of Edwin Encarnacion seemingly makes that less likely.

[Link for app users]

Which Players Will Likely Reach Extensions?
None 39.49% (1,365 votes)
Walker 16.95% (586 votes)
Santana 14.23% (492 votes)
Gonzalez 11.74% (406 votes)
Santana & Walker 5.35% (185 votes)
Santana & Gonzalez 4.60% (159 votes)
Gonzalez & Walker 3.99% (138 votes)
All Three 3.64% (126 votes)
Total Votes: 3,457

Poll: Best Remaining Free Agent Starter?

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In recent days, we’ve seen Jason Hammel, Nathan Eovaldi, and now Travis Wood leave the board. But with camps opening around the league, there are still a few notable starters who don’t yet know where to report.

As ever, rotation depth is a key consideration for any organization. Contenders need to ensure they’ll be able to fill up innings with at-least competent pitching, while rebuilding clubs need to protect their younger arms (and also may look to capture some upside by turning a veteran into a trade chip).

Organizations that aren’t quite set in the starting pitching department will likely have some of these names at the tops of their lists. Which do you think is the best bet to turn in a strong 2017 campaign? (Presented in alphabetical order.)

  • Jorge De La Rosa — The 35-year-old lefty largely scuffled in 2016, but turned in a solid 4.35 ERA over his nine seasons in the game’s toughest pitching environment, Coors Field.
  • Doug Fister — The towering right-hander turned in 164 innings of 2.41 ERA ball as recently as 2014, and showed he was healthy even as he struggled last year.
  • Mat Latos — Though he has been markedly disappointing in each of the past two seasons, Latos only just turned 29 and was a top-quality starter for the five preceding campaigns.
  • Colby Lewis — Sure, he’s 37 years of age and doesn’t generate many strikeouts, but Lewis did provide 19 starts of 3.71 ERA pitching in 2016.
  • Tim Lincecum — An attempted comeback last year fell flat, and it has been a long time since Lincecum flashed his former Cy Young form, but is it too late for the 32-year-old to settle in as a serviceable arm?
  • Jon Niese — Though his stint with the Pirates didn’t pan out, the now-30-year-old Niese was deemed a worthwhile bet by the pitching-savvy Bucs and was a solid performer for the better part of the prior eight years.
  • Jake Peavy — Another pitcher coming off of a poor season, the 35-year-old Peavy provided the Giants with 189 1/3 innings of sub-3.00 ERA work following his mid-2014 acquisition.
  • Jered Weaver — The days of competing for Cy Young awards are surely over, but if Weaver can recover even a bit of his lost velocity, perhaps he can salvage a late-career run beginning with his age-34 season.

[Link for app users]

Which Remaining Free Agent Starter Is The Best Bet For 2017?
Doug Fister 45.54% (5,524 votes)
Jorge De La Rosa 11.82% (1,434 votes)
Colby Lewis 10.37% (1,258 votes)
Mat Latos 8.33% (1,011 votes)
Jake Peavy 7.39% (896 votes)
Jered Weaver 7.18% (871 votes)
Jon Niese 6.36% (772 votes)
Tim Lincecum 3.00% (364 votes)
Total Votes: 12,130

MLBTR Poll: Finding A Fit For Chris Carter

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As we head into February, Chris Carter’s winter continues to drag on. The slugger tied Nolan Arenado for the NL home run crown last season, but the Brewers non-tendered him, casting him into a market full of similar players, many of whom also still haven’t found new teams. Also, at least a couple recent signings (such as Mark Trumbo to the Orioles, Brandon Moss to the Royals and perhaps even Mark Reynolds to the Rockies) have seemingly foreclosed upon possible destinations for Carter. A variety of teams have been connected to Carter recently, and MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently listed some more speculative fits. Where do you think he might end up? Here are some possibilities, some admittedly more likely than others.

Rays. Tampa Bay recently came to terms with Logan Morrison, but is seemingly still interested in acquiring a right-handed bat. Carter would certainly qualify, although there are a number of other possibilities, including Mike Napoli, Franklin Gutierrez and Byung Ho Park.

Rangers. Texas has been strongly connected to Napoli, although no deal has been consummated yet, and Carter would seemingly work as a backup option. Scott Boras, meanwhile, is reportedly trying to sell the Rangers on signing another potential DH, Pedro Alvarez.

Marlins. Carter would give Miami a righty to pair with Justin Bour at first base, and the Marlins reportedly have had interest in Carter. MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, though, recently pointed out that the Marlins don’t figure to spend much more than their current $110MM payroll, and wrote that the possibility they would sign Carter was “extremely remote.”

White Sox. The White Sox are only a speculative possibility, as there’s been little or no reporting connecting them to Carter. But the team has a clear opening at DH, and Carter would be a fun fit at homer-happy Guaranteed Rate Field.

Mariners. This is another speculative fit, and perhaps a less likely one, since the team has Nelson Cruz at DH and righty Danny Valencia said upon being acquired earlier this offseason that he expected to play first base (where he’ll presumably complement lefty Dan Vogelbach). Given Valencia’s ability to play other positions, though, and given that the Mariners have preferred to allow Cruz to play the outfield once a series or so, perhaps the Mariners could see an opportunity here, although that seems like a stretch.

Athletics. Incumbent A’s first baseman Yonder Alonso is coming off a very poor season, and the team could potentially use Carter at first and DH while also using Ryon Healy at those positions. The A’s tend to be opportunistic and haven’t been shy about making moves in February, although there’s been nothing specifically connecting them to Carter.

Japan. Carter’s agent, former Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart, recently said his client could consider offers from overseas, and Japanese teams would surely love to acquire a high-profile MLB hitter like Carter. And as MLBTR’s Adams pointed out, the Brewers were not able to find a trade partner for Carter when his projected arbitration salary was in the $8MM range, suggesting that he won’t be able to land much of a guaranteed MLB salary. Carter himself recently said his priority was to sign with an MLB team, however.

Other. There are, of course, more out-of-nowhere possibilities. Perhaps the Nationals could see a chance to upgrade at first, although one would think they’d have more interest in a left-handed hitter they could pair with Ryan Zimmerman, who’s controllable through 2020. Maybe the Mets could attempt to add Carter after Lucas Duda’s injury-plagued 2016 and Jay Bruce’s underwhelming stint with them, although it seems like quite a stretch to think that Duda or Carter would ever play the outfield, and the team could use Bruce or Michael Conforto at first if Duda’s back issues flare up again. Maybe the Blue Jays could see a chance to upgrade, although their acquisition of the lefty-mashing Steve Pearce complicates that possibility quite a bit. And perhaps Carter could even return to the Brewers, although that would have seemed far more likely had they traded Ryan Braun, whose departure could have bumped Eric Thames to the outfield. There’s also the possibility an injury could create an opportunity for Carter that we haven’t yet anticipated.

So where do you think Carter will go? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)

Poll: Byung Ho Park’s Future

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Transactions across Major League Baseball have begun to pick up as the spring closes in, and no move has come as a bigger surprise this week than the Twins’ decision to designate first baseman/DH Byung Ho Park for assignment on Friday. After signing 36-year-old reliever Matt Belisle to a cheap contract, rebuilding Minnesota jettisoned Park from its 40-man roster just one year after doling out $24.85MM to land him. Before committing a four-year, $12MM deal to Park last winter, the Twins had to pay his previous team, the Nexen Heroes of the Korea Baseball Organization, a $12.85MM posting fee to acquire his negotiating rights.

Byung Ho Park

Despite the low-payroll Twins’ investment in Park under previous general manager Terry Ryan, the club’s new front office – led by chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine – clearly isn’t enamored of the 30-year-old. It’s easy to see why, perhaps, as Park certainly failed to live up to the hype accompanying him in his first year in the States. Park hit an underwhelming .191/.275/.409 with a 32.8 percent strikeout rate in 244 plate appearances with the Twins before they optioned him to Triple-A Rochester on July 1. While he was significantly more productive after the demotion, largely thanks to a .526 slugging percentage, Park still hit an ugly .224 and posted a sub-.300 on-base rate in 128 PAs with Rochester.

In fairness to Park, a wrist injury – for which he underwent season-ending surgery in late August – may have stunted him in 2016. Plus, as FanGraphs’ Travis Sawchik pointed out earlier this week in a piece urging the Twins not to give up on Park (they designated him two days later), he did show encouraging signs as a rookie despite his less-than-gaudy triple slash. Evidenced somewhat by his 12 home runs and .219 ISO (league average was .162) in limited major league action, Park packed a wallop last season. Moreover, only one player with at least 75 batted-ball events (Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez, who laid waste to the league as a rookie) posted a greater percentage of barrels than Park, while just nine registered higher exit velocities on fly balls and line drives. At 97.2 mph, Park was right in line with David Ortiz and Giancarlo Stanton.

So, there could be notable upside present with Park, and although he’s currently in seven-day DFA limbo, it’s arguable that his price tag shouldn’t serve as a deterrent if another club is interested in picking him up. The expectation is that Park will clear waivers, La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reported Friday, but his remaining contract is rather insignificant to most major league teams.

As one of Sawchik’s FanGraphs colleagues, Dave Cameron, wrote Friday, Park could make sense for any of the Rangers, Athletics and White Sox. All three have questions at first base and/or DH, as do the frugal Rays, who have been on the lookout for a right-handed bat throughout the offseason and continue to search for one in the wake of re-signing lefty-swinging first baseman Logan Morrison. Of course, any of those teams could simply sign Chris Carter, who co-led the National League with 41 home runs last season, or even 34-homer man Mike Napoli if they’re willing to spend more. However, controlling Park through the 2019 season at an ultra-affordable $9.25MM might make him a more enticing option for someone hoping his tendency to hit the ball hard leads to a statistical breakout. If not, Park will head into spring training as one of the Twins’ non-roster invitees and try to get back on their 40-man at some point this year. Is that what ought to happen, though, or is Park currently worthy of a roster spot elsewhere?

(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)

Should someone pick up Byung Ho Park?
Yes. His potential upside is worth the price tag. 69.59% (5,941 votes)
No. He doesn't merit a roster spot. 30.41% (2,596 votes)
Total Votes: 8,537

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: Biggest February Signing?

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The calendar flips to February tomorrow, meaning that only about two weeks remain until Spring Training. For most of us, that means counting down to a welcome distraction from winter doldrums. But for a certain few free-agent ballplayers, there’s considerably more at stake.

Nine days ago, MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth counted down the top-ten remaining free agents. Since that time, two members of the list have signed contracts. The remaining eight players, though, are among those who have yet to determine where they’ll play the 2017 season (and, perhaps, beyond). Just one other pre-winter top-fifty free agent, veteran second baseman Chase Utley, has yet to sign. We’ll throw Chris Carter into the mix, too. (He wasn’t considered because the list came out before he was non-tendered.)

As we wait to see how it all shakes out, I thought it would be interesting to see how MLBTR’s readers are reading the market. Things always look different at the end of the offseason than they do at the beginning, for a wide variety of reasons. So, our original rankings don’t necessarily hold at this point.

  • Jason Hammel — A surprise addition to the market, Hammel hasn’t garnered nearly as much interest as expected. Potential concern over his elbow health may be a factor. Still, he has a strong track record and could provide a serious boost to a lot of rotations.
  • Matt Wieters — It’s anybody’s guess how this situation will play out. It’s possible that the veteran catcher overplayed his hand early on, but agent Scott Boras has found money late in the offseason before.
  • Mike Napoli — There has been a lot of attention on Napoli, but he remains unsigned and seems uncertain to achieve a second guaranteed season.
  • Travis Wood — The southpaw reportedly has offers to work as a starter, but it’s unclear just how much cash is being dangled. He could fit in quite a few places and provide quite a bit of function as a swingman.
  • Joe Blanton — Though he’s getting up there in age and faded a bit in the postseason, Blanton was largely outstanding last year.
  • Sergio Romo — Teams interested in a late-inning reliever with experience as a closer may see Romo as the top remaining target.
  • Fernando Salas — The earned-run results haven’t always been there, but Salas carries intriguing peripherals and was dominant in his late-season turn with the Mets.
  • Boone Logan — The walk tallies aren’t encouraging, but Logan continues to compile top-of-the-line swinging-strike rates. He’s still competing with other high-quality southpaw relievers, including Wood, Jerry Blevins, and J.P. Howell.
  • Chase Utley — It’s said that Utley is nearing a decision, with multiple offers on the table. It’d be surprising if he lands truly significant money, but teams may place added value on this proven grinder.
  • Chris Carter — Though Mark Trumbo may have fallen a bit shy of expectations, he still earned a big payday. The highly comparable Carter likely won’t come anywhere near Trumbo’s earnings, but it’s fair to wonder why there’s such a divide in their markets.

So, here’s your chance to weigh in. Which of those players (randomized in the poll) will earn the biggest contract over the coming weeks? (Link for mobile app users.)

Which Remaining Free Agent Will Land The Biggest Contract?
Matt Wieters 31.02% (3,010 votes)
Mike Napoli 27.84% (2,701 votes)
Jason Hammel 24.96% (2,422 votes)
Chris Carter 4.61% (447 votes)
Travis Wood 4.38% (425 votes)
Boone Logan 1.99% (193 votes)
Sergio Romo 1.75% (170 votes)
Chase Utley 1.67% (162 votes)
Joe Blanton 1.36% (132 votes)
Fernando Salas 0.42% (41 votes)
Total Votes: 9,703
Show all

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