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Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

By Steve Adams | January 13, 2017 at 10:55pm CDT

Quite frankly, there were too many arbitration agreements today to reasonably stuff into one post. So here’s a rundown of the National League players that have avoided arbitration on smaller deals (American League deals here). You can see all of the arbitration “action” thus far in a sortable, filterable format by checking out MLBTR’s 2017 Arbitration Tracker. All projections referenced in this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • Wily Peralta and Carlos Torres have agreed to one-year deals, according to the team’s Twitter account. Peralta will earn $4.275MM (compared to $4.4MM projection), per Heyman. Torres was projected to make $2MM, but will get slightly more at $2.175MM, per Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (via Twitter).
  • Reliever George Kontos gets $1.75MM from the Giants, Heyman tweets. He had projected at $1.7MM.
  • The Diamondbacks also reached agreement with lefty Patrick Corbin, righty Randall Delgado, and catcher Chris Herrmann, per Jack Magruder of Fan Rag (links to Twitter). Delgado gets $1.775MM and Herrmann receives $937,500. As for Corbin, he’ll take home $3.95MM, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (via Twitter), which falls a bit shy of his $4.2MM projection.
  • Infielder Eduardo Nunez will receive $4.2MM from the Giants, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). San Francisco has also reached agreement with lefty Will Smith, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). He’ll receive $2.5MM, just over his $2.3MM projection, Heyman tweets.
  • The Phillies settled at $4.2MM with righty Jeanmar Gomez, per Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter). He falls just a big shy of his $4.6MM projection.
  • The Cardinals have announced arb deals with Trevor Rosenthal and Kevin Siegrist. Rosenthal receives $6.4MM, per Heyman (via Twitter), which is just $100K over his projection. Siegrist projected at $1.9MM, but his salary has yet to be reported.
  • Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom have each avoided arbitration with the Mets. Harvey gets $5.125MM in his second arb year, per James Wagner of the New York Times (via Twitter). Meanwhile, deGrom will receive $4.05MM in his first trip through the arb process, per ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin (via Twitter). New York has also agreed with lefty Josh Edgin, Rubin tweets, though terms remain unreported.

Earlier Updates

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  • Gerrit Cole and the Pirates have settled at $3.75MM, according to Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. After a disappointing 2016 season, the 26-year-old will make nearly $500K less than his $4.2MM projection. He’s under team control through 2019.
  • The Nationals and Anthony Rendon are in agreement on a one-year, $5.8MM deal (compared to $6.4MM projection), according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. The 26-year-old third baseman is under team control through 2019.
  • Chris Owings and the Diamondbacks have settled at $2.3MM (compared to $2.1MM projection), per Heyman. The 25-year-old, who posted a .731 OPS in 2016 while logging 466 plate appearances between shortstop, center field and second base, is under team control through 2019.
  • The Marlins have come to terms with all remaining arbitration-eligible players aside from David Phelps, according to MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. Tom Koehler will make $5.75MM (compared to $6.2MM projection), per Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. Adeiny Hechavarria has agreed to a $4.35MM deal (compared to $3.7MM projection) for 2017, according to Heyman. Meanwhile, Derek Dietrich gets $1.7MM ($1.8MM projection) and Marcell Ozuna receives $3.5MM ($4.5MM projection), per Spencer (via Twitter). The Marlins have also avoided arbitration with closer A.J. Ramos, who will earn $6.55MM, per Spencer (via Twitter).
  • The Braves have come to terms with Arodys Vizcaino ($1.6MM projection) and Ian Krol ($1MM projection), per David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Terms have not yet been reported. The team has now agreed to deals with all six arbitration-eligible players.
  • Juan Nicasio and the Pirates have settled at $3.65MM, according to Matt Gajtka of DKPittsburghSports.com. That is nearly $1MM less than his $4.6MM projection after posting a 4.50 ERA with a career-high 10.5 K/9 in 118 innings. He can become a free agent next offseason.
  • The Dodgers agreed to one-year deals with their four remaining arbitration-eligible players, per MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick. Yasmani Grandal will make $5.5MM (compared to $5.3MM projection) after a season in which he posted an .816 OPS with 27 homers. He’ll be eligible for arbitration one last time before he can become a free agent after the 2018 season. Luis Avilan ($1.5MM) and Alex Wood ($2.8MM) were eligible for the first time, while Josh Fields will earn $1.05MM in his second year of eligibility. That trio will remain under team control through 2019.
  • Brandon Maurer and the Padres have settled at $1.9MM (compared to $1.7MM projection), per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Maurer, who posted a 3.09 ERA with 13 saves after taking over as the team’s closer in early July, is under control through 2019.
  • The Reds and Billy Hamilton settled at $2.625MM for the upcoming season, tweets FanRag’s Jon Heyman. Hamilton had a breakout second half and finished the year with a .260/.321/.343 batting line, plus three homers and a whopping 58 steals (in 66 tries). He cleared his $2.3MM projection by a fair amount and is controllable through 2019 via arbitration.
  • Zack Cozart and Tony Cingrani agreed to one-year deals with the Reds, per MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon (Twitter links), as did right-hander Blake Wood, tweets Heyman. Cozart, a free agent next winter, handily topped his $4.7MM projection after hitting .252/.308/.425 with 16 homers and premium defense at short. Cingrani gets $1.825MM, per Heyman, which is just a hair shy of his $1.9MM projection. Wood had a solid season out of the Cincinnati bullpen, with a 3.99 ERA in 76 2/3 innings after signing as a minor league free agent. He can be controlled through 2018.
  • Derek Norris and Tanner Roark both agreed to one-year deals with the Nationals, per Heyman (Twitter links). Norris will get $4.2MM (compared to a $4MM projection), while Roark earns $4.315MM (compared to what looks to have been an overly aggressive $6.1MM projection).
  • Hector Rondon and the Cubs avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $5.8MM, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (on Twitter). He clears his $5.7MM projection by a small margin of $100K on the heels of a season that saw him post a 3.53 ERA, 18 saves, 10.2 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 51 innings of relief. He’s controlled through 2018. Heyman tweets that the Cubs also dodged arb with Justin Grimm on a $1.825MM deal that is a near-mirror image of his $1.8MM projection. He’s a free agent after the 2019 season.
  • Jordy Mercer and the Pirates agreed to a one-year, $4.325MM deal, reports Matt Gajtka of DKPittsburghSports.com. He comes in $325K north of his $4MM projection on the heels of a season in which he batted .256/.328/.374 with 11 homers. Mercer has one more winter of arbitration eligibility and will be a free agent after the 2018 season.
  • The Mets and Travis d’Arnaud are in agreement on a one-year, $1.875MM deal, Heyman tweets. That’s $175K above the $1.7MM for the first-year arbitration catcher. Now 28 years old, d’Arnaud has yet to prove he can remain healthy and productive over the life of a full big league season. He’ll get another crack at doing so in 2017, it seems. He batted .247/.307/.323 with four homers in 276 PAs last year. The Mets also avoided arb with Addison Reed, Jeurys Familia and Lucas Duda, who are broken off into a separate post.
  • The Marlins and closer A.J. Ramos have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $6.55MM, tweets Heyman. The 30-year-old Ramos was Miami’s primary closer last season and turned in a 2.81 ERA (his third straight sub-3.00 mark) and 40 saves to go along with 10.3 K/9 against 4.9 BB/9 in 64 innings. Ramos comes in $250K shy of his $6.8MM projection but still earns a very healthy raise over last year’s $3.4MM salary.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds Los Angeles Dodgers Miami Marlins New York Mets Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants St. Louis Cardinals Transactions Washington Nationals A.J. Ramos Addison Reed Adeiny Hechavarria Alex Wood Anthony Rendon Arodys Vizcaino Billy Hamilton Blake Wood Brandon Maurer Carlos Torres Chris Herrmann Chris Owings David Phelps Derek Dietrich Derek Norris Eduardo Nunez George Kontos Gerrit Cole Hector Rondon Ian Krol Jacob deGrom Jeurys Familia Jordy Mercer Josh Edgin Josh Fields Juan Nicasio Justin Grimm Kevin Siegrist Lucas Duda Luis Avilan Marcell Ozuna Matt Harvey Patrick Corbin Randall Delgado Tanner Roark Tom Koehler Tony Cingrani Trevor Rosenthal Will Smith Wily Peralta Yasmani Grandal Zack Cozart

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Mets Avoid Arbitration With Jeurys Familia

By Jeff Todd | January 13, 2017 at 6:06pm CDT

The Mets have avoided arbitration with closer Jeurys Familia, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). The righty will receive a $7.425MM salary.

The 27-year-old Familia had another strong season on the mound in 2016, providing 77 2/3 innings of 2.55 ERA pitching with 9.7 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9. Importantly, for arbitration purposes, he also recorded a hefty tally of 51 saves.

MLBTR had projected Familia to earn $8.7MM in 2017 after his productive campaign. But the second-time arb-eligible pitcher is facing a possible suspension after being charged over the offseason in a domestic violence incident. Though the charges were dropped, and the matter doesn’t technically impact his case, it may well be that the team had some extra leverage to exert.

 

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New York Mets Transactions Jeurys Familia

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Mets Avoid Arbitration With Duda, Reed, Familia

By Jeff Todd | January 13, 2017 at 12:33pm CDT

JAN. 13: The Mets have also avoided arb with setup man Addison Reed and closer Jeurys Familia, per a pair of reports from Heyman and James Wagner of the New York Times (Twitter links). Reed will earn $7.75MM and Familia will take home $7.425MM. Familia was projected to earn $8.7MM and came in a fair bit shy of that sum, while Reed’s unique background somewhat “broke” MLBTR’s arbitration model and resulted in a $10.6MM projection. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who designed the model, explained earlier this week why Reed’s case was something of an outlier and suggested at the time that a salary in the range of $8MM was more likely.

JAN. 12: The Mets have avoided arbitration with first baseman Lucas Duda, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). Duda will receive $7.25MM in the deal.

That’s a fairly healthy bump over the MLBTR projection of $6.725MM, which would have been a repeat of Duda’s 2016 salary. Ultimately, he’ll get about half a million more after an injury-limited season in which he took just 172 plate appearances.

Duda will be looking to get on track before hitting the open market after the season. First, he’ll need to return to health after a long layoff due to back surgery. If he’s able to do that, there’s certainly reason to think he can be a productive bat at first base. Between 2014 and 2015, he slashed .249/.350/.483 with 57 home runs.

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New York Mets Transactions Addison Reed Jeurys Familia Lucas Duda

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Mets, Orioles To Employ “File-And-Trial” Arbitration Approach

By Jeff Todd | January 12, 2017 at 8:17pm CDT

The Mets and Orioles will adopt a “file-and-trial” approach to their arbitration-eligible players this year, as Marc Carig of Newsday (via Twitter) and Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun (also on Twitter) report. That means that the organizations will only negotiate with players up until tomorrow’s 1pm EST deadline to exchange filing figures; if no deal is found with a given player, they’ll take the case to arbitration.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained the “file-and-trial” stance a few years back. Some organizations adopt it as a blanket rule, with at least some of those willing to make exceptions only in cases of multi-year arrangements. Others will utilize it on a case-by-case basis, notifying certain players of that intention in the course of negotiations.

It’s always tough to keep tabs on precisely which teams utilize this strategy, and it can certainly change — especially with front office turnover. At last check, though, file-and-trial teams include the Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Marlins, Rays, and White Sox.  And there are at least five others that seem to take that approach with some players: the Brewers, Indians, Nationals, Pirates, and Reds.

By adopting this approach, the New York and Baltimore organizations have turned up the heat on their final talks with arb-eligible players. As things stand, the O’s have yet to reach terms with a variety of notable players, led by Zach Britton, Manny Machado, Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, and Jonathan Schoop. The club also has to work out salaries with Brad Brach and Caleb Joseph. It’s not an easy season for the Mets, either; they have yet to settle with Addison Reed, Jeurys Familia, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Wilmer Flores, Travis d’Arnaud, and Josh Edgin.

As always, you can view MLBTR’s arbitration projects right here, and track the players who have and haven’t agreed to terms with our arbitration tracker.

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Baltimore Orioles New York Mets

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Mets, Zack Wheeler Avoid Arbitration

By Steve Adams | January 11, 2017 at 4:45pm CDT

The Mets have reached an agreement with right-hander Zack Wheeler on a one-year deal worth $800K, thus avoiding arbitration, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports (via Twitter).

Wheeler comes in shy of the $1MM projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, although the unique circumstances surrounding his health make him a tricky player to project. Wheeler has undeniable talent and looked to be emerging as an excellent long-term rotation cog for the Mets when he tossed 285 1/3 innings of 3.50 ERA ball from 2013-14. However, he underwent Tommy John surgery in the spring of 2015 and missed the entire 2016 season due to lingering complications in his recovery. This winter marked his first trip through the arbitration process, and he remains controllable through the 2019 season.

The Mets are planning on Wheeler returning to health in 2017, though it’s not known exactly how heavily his arm can be depended upon. Now 26 years old, Wheeler is just one of many talented Mets arms that carries significant injury question marks. Matt Harvey underwent surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome this past summer (and has a Tommy John procedure under his belt as well), while Jacob deGrom had surgery to repair the ulnar nerve in his right arm and Steven Matz underwent surgery to remove bone spurs in his left elbow (to say nothing of left shoulder issues that plagued him late in the year as well). Even ace Noah Syndergaard, who didn’t require any surgery or miss any time this year, was said to be pitching through a small spur in his own elbow.

As it stands, Wheeler could join that quartet in New York’s 2017 rotation, although there’s also been some talk of him working out of the bullpen as he eases back into the rigors of a Major League pitching regimen. If that’s the case, the Mets have a number of alternatives in the fifth spot of the rotation, headed by right-handers Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman. Right-hander Gabriel Ynoa made his big league debut last year as well, and former top prospect Rafael Montero remains a depth option. Southpaw Sean Gilmartin, too, has plenty of experience starting, although he’s worked almost exclusively as a reliever in the Majors.

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New York Mets Transactions Zack Wheeler

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Market Notes: Ross, Bourn, Braves, Bruce

By Jeff Todd | January 10, 2017 at 11:07am CDT

With plenty of apparent interest, veteran righty Tyson Ross is “taking a methodical approach” to deciding upon his next organization, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports in his latest notes column. Among the elements under consideration are the rehap options and “contractual structures” being proposed. Last we heard, the Rangers and Cubs were pursuing Ross most aggressively, with the Nationals also showing interest. All three clubs, it seems, are also lining up other possibilities in the event that they miss on the talented 29-year-old, who is attempting to work back from thoracic outlet surgery. Chicago, in particular, could turn its attention back to southpaw Travis Wood, notes Rosenthal, who says the team still likes the lefty.

  • Meanwhile, per Rosenthal, the Orioles remain interested in Michael Bourn despite adding another left-handed-hitting outfielder in Seth Smith. Baltimore wants to boost the glovework in its outfield mix, he says, and evidently remains favorably disposed toward the veteran after his late-season run with the club in 2016. It’s not immediately clear how things would look if Bourn joins Smith and Hyun Soo Kim as southpaw-swinging options, though presumably either of the existing players could also mix in at DH, while Bourn could also spell Adam Jones in center.
  • Though the Braves have added three veteran pieces to their rotation this winter, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman suggests that the club will continue to pursue a controllable, top-flight hurler. He cites Jose Quintana of the White Sox and Chris Archer of the Rays as the likeliest targets; indeed, Atlanta has long been connected to both, among plenty of other organizations. It would surely represent something of a surprise at this point were the Braves to make a major strike for a starter, but the organization has proved willing and able in the past to pull off significant deals at any stage of the year.
  • The Mets continue to face a seeming dilemma with outfielder Jay Bruce, who hasn’t generated much demand on the trade market with a variety of power-hitting free agents still available on the open market. Joel Sherman of the New York Post takes a look at the situation, arguing that the club simply needs to make the best deal it can — even if it means eating salary. New York could explore ways to add a reliever in a Bruce swap, he notes, but shouldn’t allow his $13MM salary to get in the way of bolstering the pen.
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Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Chicago White Sox New York Mets Tampa Bay Rays Chris Archer Jay Bruce Jose Quintana Michael Bourn Travis Wood Tyson Ross

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Arbitration Breakdown: Addison Reed

By Matt Swartz | January 7, 2017 at 9:30am CDT

Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher-profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Modeling arbitration salaries is an inexact science, and sometimes “inexact” is too generous of a description. Setup man Addison Reed’s projected $5.3MM raise to $10.6MM is clearly one of those times. Even worse is that the model was only saved by the “Kimbrel Rule,” which states that a player can only beat the record salary for their service class by $1M in the model. The raw model projected a $5.8MM raise. Reed is going to get a far smaller raise than he projected, because the peculiarities of his case confuse the model so much.

Reed’s case is unique because he has 106 career saves but had 40 holds this year in lieu of working as a closer. Further, he struck out 91 batters in 77.2 innings while posting a microscopic 1.97 ERA. Relievers who have a career of closing success behind them tend to out-earn those who have a single good year as closers. So the model gives credit to career save totals, which boosts Reed’s projection significantly.

He is, however, unlikely to get extra credit for those saves in real life. Remove those career saves, and the model projects him for a $3.6MM raise. That’s still large, but much more reasonable.

Reed’s 40 holds this year put him in elite company on their own. In the last decade, only three relievers entering their third year of arbitration eligibility have even accumulated 30 holds—David Robertson in 2014, Tyler Clippard in 2014, and Mike Adams in 2012. They had 33, 33, and 32 holds, respectively, and earned raises of $2.12MM, $1.88MM, and $1.87MM. Their ERAs were strong as well: 2.04, 2.41, and 1.47, as compared with Reed’s 1.97 ERA total. The extra holds suggest Reed’s raise will be worth significantly more than Robertson’s $2.12MM.

That establishes a floor for Reed, but looking for a ceiling is tricky with a lack of relievers amassing 40 holds or anything near it. To find a potential ceiling, we can look to closers who pitched similarly. Among closers who had ERAs under 2.00 like Reed, only one name emerges from the last five years—Aroldis Chapman. He had 33 saves and a 1.63 ERA in 2015, with 116 strikeouts in 66.1 innings. Chapman got a $3.27MM raise. Although Reed had seven more holds than Chapman did saves, he had a higher ERA and fewer strikeouts.

Putting this together, it makes sense that Reed should fall somewhere between a $2.12 and $3.27MM. I suspect right in the middle at $2.7MM would make sense, putting him at $8MM. It is a far cry from the model’s $10.6MM projection ($11.1MM ignoring the Kimbrel Rule), but it definitely would be a healthy raise for Reed’s third year of eligibility.

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Arbitration Breakdown MLBTR Originals New York Mets Addison Reed

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Market Notes: Jays, Bruce, A’s, Plouffe, Dozier, Bautista, Trumbo, Lefty Relievers, Lewis

By Jeff Todd | January 6, 2017 at 12:14am CDT

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports argues that the Blue Jays may have misread the market for power bats this winter. In the case of Toronto, he suggests, the team ought to have been more patient with Edwin Encarnacion. By moving quickly to give a three-year deal to Kendrys Morales after Encarnacion declined to take the team’s early-offseason offer, the Jays may have spent much more than necessary to land a player of Morales’s quality while also tying their hands on Encarnacion, who ended up signing for one year and $20MM less than Toronto had reportedly offered.

  • The Mets, too, might have erred in their approach on Jay Bruce. He now seems a superfluous piece after the re-signing of Yoenis Cespedes, and Rosenthal says that he expects New York will need to pay down part of Bruce’s $13MM salary to deal him. The team picked up that option in large part to insure against the loss of Cespedes; a team source notes that insurance “doesn’t come for free,” and Rosenthal notes that the decision may have improved their bargaining position with their star free agent. But perhaps a greater recognition of the flood of sluggers would have led the team to choose an alternate path to protecting itself in the event of a departure of Cespedes.
  • As they continue to look to bolster their lineup, the Athletics are showing interest in free-agent third baseman Trevor Plouffe, per Rosenthal. He’d presumably be a value-focused addition to the overall mix at third and first base. Of course, Oakland is also said to be looking at Mark Trumbo, so it seems the organization is still casting a fairly wide net.
  • While there has been a suggestion that the Dodgers won’t form a package around Jose De Leon to pry Brian Dozier from the Twins, preferring instead to pursue a one-for-one deal, Rosenthal writes that Los Angeles is “willing to include other prospects” to get something done. Of course, it could well be that the issue isn’t so much the inclusion of some other pre-MLB players — surely, the Dodgers could find some expendable pieces to part with — so much as the question whether any are seen by Minnesota as adding significant value.
  • Jon Heyman of Fan Rag provides a lengthy list of the winners and losers in the open-market action to date, though that can still change with a lot of free agents left and perhaps some trades still to be swung. As for some of those still-unsigned open-market players, Heyman provides a few notes. Jose Bautista’s representatives “circled back” to the Orioles to gauge interest, but it still seems that Baltimore isn’t interested. And the Blue Jays “do not seem anxious” to strike a deal with the veteran. Meanwhile, the O’s remain involved on Trumbo.
  • Heyman further notes that there remains robust demand for left-handed relievers. He lists the Mets, Yankees, Indians, and Blue Jays as teams still looking at southpaws. Jerry Blevins, Boone Logan, Travis Wood, and J.P. Howell are among the established left-handed options that remain available.
  • It’s unlikely that the Rangers will bring back veteran righty Colby Lewis, as Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports. Though “the door’s open,” per GM Jon Daniels, he adds that he doesn’t “foresee anything happening at this point” with Lewis. Texas would be interested only in a minor-league arrangement, it seems, due in part to questions over Lewis’s health outlook.
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Baltimore Orioles Cleveland Guardians Los Angeles Dodgers Minnesota Twins New York Mets New York Yankees Oakland Athletics Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Brian Dozier Colby Lewis Jay Bruce Jose Bautista Jose De Leon Mark Trumbo Trevor Plouffe

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Arbitration Breakdown: Jacob deGrom & Carlos Martinez

By Matt Swartz | January 5, 2017 at 11:22pm CDT

Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. Click here to view all of the 2017 projections.

Ever since Dontrelle Willis received $4.35 million in arbitration in 2006, it has been hard for first-time eligible starting pitchers to top his salary. The record stood for ten years, until last year Dallas Keuchel took home $7.25 million following a Cy Young Award-winning season. In the decade since Willis received his record first-year salary for starting pitchers, many pitchers have come extremely close to hitting his $4.35 million or have actually hit it. David Price matched Willis’ $4.35 million in 2012 and Shelby Miller did so last year. Seven other starting pitchers have earned between $4 and $4.35 million in the last decade as well.

Other pitchers who would likely have exceeded Willis’ record received multi-year deals, which usually removes them from consideration when looking for comparables. Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw were both coming off Cy Young seasons when they received multi-year deals, and Lance Lynn and Cole Hamels also received multi-year deals and subsequently missed out on breaking the record as well. Many elite starting pitchers are worthwhile candidates for multi-year deals, so it is not surprising that few of them actually receive one-year deals and become comparables. Among pitchers in the last decade with 30 career wins, 450 career innings, career ERAs below 3.50 and at least 100 platform year innings, five of nine signed multi-year deals before reaching agreement on one-year deals for their first year of salary arbitration.

Modeling arbitration salaries is obviously something that requires much precision, but the psychological barrier of $4.35 million is something that emotionless mathematical modeling will miss. As a result, I have written several articles over the years in which I explained that certain pitchers who were projected just over $4.35 million probably would not actually do so. Jacob deGrom and Carlos Martinez may be two such pitchers today, although Martinez is more likely to best that amount.

Jacob deGrom is coming off a mediocre platform year (for arbitration purposes) where he only won seven games amidst throwing 148 innings. Although his ERA was 3.04, lack of counting stats is likely to hurt his arbitration case. His career numbers may offset this—he has 30 career wins and a 2.74 ERA across 479.1 innings and has struck out 492 batters. He also won Rookie of the Year in 2014. His projection is $4.5 million, although I think there is good reason to believe that he will fall short of this.

Carlos Martinez has a much stronger case, and is projected to earn $5.3 million. He went 16-9 with a 3.04 ERA in 195.1 innings with 174 strikeouts, and has a career 34-21 record with a 3.32 ERA in 492.2 innings with 466 strikeouts. Few pitchers can match his performance, and he may be able to top the old record of $4.35 million, although he will come nowhere near the new record. The peculiarity of Martinez’ case is that is that there are no comparable pitchers with salaries in the range between $4.35 and $7.25, so he will be filling in some empty space if he does exceed the old Willis number.

In the last five years, there have only been five pitchers who had 25 career wins, 400 career innings, 400 career strikeouts, and career ERAs under 3.50 who did not sign multi-year deals. All five received between $3.97 and $4.35 million in arbitration. These include Shelby Miller at $4.35 million, Matt Harvey at $4.32 million, Doug Fister and Alex Cobb both at $4 million, and Stephen Strasburg at $3.97 million.

It is difficult to see a good reason why Jacob deGrom would earn above or below this range as a result. Although he had slightly fewer innings than all of them, Doug Fister in 2013 was coming off just 161.2 innings and Alex Cobb was coming off 166.1 innings. Both won 10 games, more than deGrom’s seven, but neither had a Rookie of the Year Award under his belt and deGrom’s career ERA is lower than both of theirs. He also has more strikeouts than either had in their careers at this point as well. As a result, I think he will probably top their $4 million salaries.

I think deGrom will struggle to top Matt Harvey’s $4.32 million from last season, though. Harvey had a better career ERA and a better platform ERA, along with many more platform innings. Something around $4.2 million seems likely for deGrom—below his $4.5 million projection.

Martinez, on the other hand, does seem like a likely candidate to top the five aforementioned starters’ earnings. None of them had more than 13 platform year wins, and Martinez had 16. His 3.04 ERA is in the middle of the pack for the group, but his 195.1 innings total is only bested by Miller. His 34 career wins are bested by Alex Cobb, but exceed the other four starters. His innings and strikeouts are similar to them as well.

All things considered, he has a clear cut case to beat the $4.35 million mark. Comparing him to Shelby Miller alone, he went 16-9 as compared with Miller’s 6-17 in his platform year. His platform year ERA was nearly identical and he threw only 10 less innings but had three more strikeouts than Miller. In his career, he has two more wins than Miller but 14 fewer losses. He also has a relatively similar ERA. Although he has thrown about eighty fewer innings, he has only struck out seventeen fewer batters. Martinez is likely to succeed in asking for a number higher than Miller’s $4.35. But given that the main difference is ten platform year wins, I believe he will probably not get the $5.3 million projection my model estimates. I think something between $4.5 and $5 million is likely for Martinez.

Both of these pitchers are projected for slightly more than they will probably earn. The symbolic barrier at $4.35 million is still a factor despite Keuchel’s new record, which was set up by his 232 innings of 2.48 ERA pitching and the hardware to match. Because of that, the model is likely to miss on starting pitchers near that until that symbolic barrier has been passed enough times.

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Arbitration Breakdown MLBTR Originals New York Mets St. Louis Cardinals Carlos Martinez Jacob deGrom

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Phillies Open To Adding Veteran Bat

By Steve Adams | January 4, 2017 at 9:34am CDT

TODAY: Philadelphia has no realistic interest in Bautista, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki. However, the other players mentioned previously — Saunders, Moss, and Bruce — are all said to be plausible targets.

YESTERDAY: The Phillies are still open to the idea of adding a veteran bat — likely an outfielder/first baseman — to their relatively young lineup, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Among the potential free-agent targets are Jose Bautista, Michael Saunders and Brandon Moss, although the Phils are reluctant to surrender their second-round draft pick (their first-rounder is protected) in order to add Bautista, Rosenthal adds. FanRag’s Jon Heyman wrote last week that the Phillies have some interest in Moss and would prefer any bat they add to be of the left-handed variety, and earlier today, CSN Philly’s Jim Salisbury called the addition of another bat “likely,” speculating that Saunders and Moss could be potential targets.

Rosenthal also reports that a trade for Mets right fielder Jay Bruce is something the Phillies would consider, so long as they weren’t required to part with any significant prospects or MLB assets in the deal. (He brings up the trade that sent Darin Ruf and Darnell Sweeney to the Dodgers in exchange for Howie Kendrick and the trade of minor leaguer Josh Tobias to the Red Sox for Clay Buchholz as points of reference.)

[Related: Philadelphia Phillies Depth Chart]

Any of the four listed options would give the Phillies an alternative in right field to the current trio of Aaron Altherr, Tyler Goeddel and Roman Quinn, who figure to compete for outfield playing time this spring. Kendrick is likely to man left field, while the recently extended Odubel Herrera is poised to reprise his role as Philadelphia’s everyday center fielder. While adding a veteran could, in the eyes of some fans, block that trio, there’s certainly a case that each could use additional time in the minor leagues to develop.

Altherr, 26 later this month, missed most of the 2016 season due to a wrist injury and batted a woeful .197/.300/.288 in 227 plate appearances upon returning. He’s also tallied just 53 Triple-A games in his young career. Goeddel, who spent the entire season on the Phillies’ roster due to his status as a Rule 5 pick, looked more than overmatched at the plate, hitting just .192/.258/.291 in 234 trips to the plate. And while Quinn looked sharp in a 15-game September cameo, the 23-year-old speedster jumped from Double-A to the Majors and has yet to make even a single plate appearance in Triple-A.

Rosenthal does note that the Phillies aren’t keen on blocking any of their young players by handing out a long-term contract, implying that a one-year commitment to any of the free agents would be the likeliest option. (Bruce, meanwhile, is under contract for just one more season at $13MM and will be a free agent next winter.) Minimizing the commitment would allow GM Matt Klentak and president Andy MacPhail to keep multiple outfield spots open for the 2018 season, when the Phillies will have a better idea of what they can expect from players like Altherr, Quinn, Goeddel and prospects Nick Williams and Dylan Cozens. And, adding a veteran bat on a short-term commitment will of course give the still-rebuilding Phillies a potential midseason trade chip in the event that he performs well and generates interest from contenders in need of offensive improvements.

Bruce and Saunders figure to be strict outfield options, but there’s been some thought that a signing club could put Bautista at first base on occasion, and Moss of course has plenty of experience at that position himself. Moss would, in my mind, represent the best fit, as he’d also give the Phillies a potential platoon partner for Tommy Joseph (as Rosenthal also points out) while allowing the team to give a younger option a look in the outfield should he prove himself ready with a strong minor league performance.

Lastly, from a financial standpoint, the Phillies can comfortably afford to add any of the listed players. MLBTR’s Jason Martinez projects a modest $104MM payroll for the Phils over at Roster Resource — a drastic reduction from the $177MM Opening Day payroll the team carried as recently as 2014. Furthermore, the only guaranteed contract on the books beyond the 2017 season is that of Herrera, as veterans like Buchholz, Kendrick, Jeremy Hellickson, Joaquin Benoit, Pat Neshek and Andres Blanco are all on one-year pacts. Adding another one-year commitment to the ledger would allow the Phils to maintain plenty of flexibility as the team looks to continue adding to its young core and eyes a return to prominence in the NL East.

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New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies Brandon Moss Jay Bruce Jose Bautista Michael Saunders

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