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Mets Reportedly Won't Pursue Other Top Starters If They Fail To Sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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The Mets are among several reported finalists for the services of right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who club owner Steve Cohen traveled to Japan to meet with earlier this month. All indications point to a very serious pursuit of the offseason’s top free agent starting pitcher, but The Athletic’s Will Sammon suggests that intense pursuit should not be taken as an indication the Mets plan to spend aggressively on long-term, top-of-the-market free agents this offseason. Sammon reports that the club views Yamamoto, 25, as something of a unique case thanks to his front-of-the-rotation potential and exceptional youth for a free agent.

Should they fail to land Yamamoto, Sammon suggests that the club doesn’t plan on pivoting to other top-of-the-market free agents such as Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. Rather, Sammon suggests the Mets could pivot to a mid-market arm like Lucas Giolito, who the club has previously been reported to have interest in as they focus on shorter term, one- and two-year contracts to plug holes on their roster. Indications have percolated since the trade deadline that the Mets view 2024 as something of a transitory year where they hope to thread the needle between staying competitive and focusing on 2025 and beyond, and Sammon’s report is the latest among those signals.

Mets Showing Interest In Justin Turner

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The Mets have been engaged with representatives for free agent corner infielder Justin Turner, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post. They join the Diamondbacks and incumbent Red Sox among the teams known to be in the mix for the 39-year-old.

Turner spent three and a half seasons in Queens over a decade ago. At the time, he looked like a versatile but unexceptional infielder. After hitting .265/.326/.370 as a Met, Turner caught on with the Dodgers for the 2014 campaign. That change of scenery and an overhauled swing launched Turner to stardom. He raked at a .296/.375/.490 clip in nine seasons with Los Angeles before signing with Boston an offseason ago.

Despite his age, Turner remains a very good hitter. In 626 plate appearances, he hit .276/.345/.455 with 23 home runs. Turner kept his strikeout percentage to a modest 17.6% clip with solid power and plate discipline. The righty-hitting Turner had dramatic platoon splits last season, particularly from a slugging perspective, but he traditionally fares as well or better against same-handed pitching.

While Turner hasn’t shown many signs of decline in the batter’s box, his defensive responsibilities have waned. In his final season as a Dodger, he spent an equal amount of time at third base and designated hitter. Turner didn’t see much defensive work in Boston, starting 98 times at DH. He manned the hot corner on seven occasions, picked up four starts at second, and opened 35 contests at first base. That’s in part because the Sox have Rafael Devers and Triston Casas at the infield corners. Yet it’s also a question how heavy a defensive workload Turner can handle at this stage of his career.

That shouldn’t be a concern for the Mets. Turner wouldn’t see much first base action barring an injury to Pete Alonso. New York doesn’t have proven solutions at third base or DH, however. Young hitters Brett Baty and Mark Vientos project as the respective starters. Both are formerly well-regarded prospects, yet neither has produced at the big league level thus far.

President of baseball operations David Stearns said at the Winter Meetings that the Mets weren’t looking for a third baseman. That preceded an unfortunate ACL tear for young infielder Ronny Mauricio, who’d seemed a strong candidate for the third base job before his winter ball injury. Whether that changes the calculus for Stearns and the front office isn’t clear, although Turner could fit at DH even if the Mets wanted to give Baty the hot corner.

MLBTR predicted a one-year, $16MM contract for Turner. The Mets have made clear their primary focus is the 2025 campaign, but they’re not prepared to concede the ’24 season. There’s a need for at least one middle-of-the-order offensive presence in addition to the rotation questions that have been the organization’s focus so far.

Ken MacKenzie Passes Away

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Former major league reliever Ken MacKenzie has passed away at age 89, according to the Associated Press.

Born in Ontario, MacKenzie attended Yale. He signed with the Braves out of school in 1956. MacKenzie reached the big leagues with the franchise, at the time based in Milwaukee, in 1960. He pitched 15 1/3 innings over parts of two seasons before joining the expansion Mets in 1962.

MacKenzie logged a career-high 80 innings for the inaugural team in Queens, posting a 4.95 ERA. As the AP notes, his 5-4 record made him the only pitcher with an above-.500 mark for a team that ultimately went 40-120. MacKenzie was traded twice the following season, going to the Cardinals and Giants. He also saw some action with the Astros in 1965.

Over parts of six campaigns, the left-hander posted a 4.80 ERA across 208 1/3 innings. He struck out 142 hitters and picked up eight wins. After his playing career, he coached baseball and hockey at his alma mater throughout the 1970s. MLBTR sends our condolences to MacKenzie’s family, friends and former teammates.

Mets Sign Cam Robinson To Minor League Deal

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The Mets announced Thursday that they’ve signed righty reliever Cam Robinson to a minor league deal and invited him to big league camp this spring. The team also confirmed its previously reported signing of outfielder Trayce Thompson to a similar non-roster deal with a spring training invite.

The fit with Robinson and the Mets is a natural one, as he’s spent his entire career to date with the Brewers. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns was running baseball ops in Milwaukee when Robinson was drafted in the 23rd round of the 2017 draft, and Robinson ranked as high as 24th among Brewers prospects earlier this season, per Baseball America.

Robinson soared through three minor league levels in 2022, finishing that season with a 2.49 ERA, 25 saves, a 31.6% strikeout rate and a less palatable 11.8% walk rate in 65 innings between High-A, Double-A and Triple-A. Things didn’t go nearly as well in 2023, when Robinson was tagged for a 5.33 earned run average in 50 2/3 frames between the Brewers’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates. Robinson’s strikeout rate plummeted to 23%, while his already problematic walk rate climbed to an even more troubling 15.4%.

Lackluster ’23 output notwithstanding, Robinson posted strong run-prevention and strikeout numbers from 2021-22. Baseball America’s scouting report on him notes that his heater typically sits 93-95mph range, topping out at 97 mph. He pairs that with a high-spin curveball and occasional slider. Command troubles have long been an issue for Robinson, but solid velocity, a plus curveball and a track record of missing bats make him a decent depth flier on a minor league contract.

Tommy Hunter Officially Retires

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Longtime big league reliever Tommy Hunter has officially retired, he tells Britt Ghiroli of the Athletic (X link). Hunter first indicated he was retiring on former teammate Adam Jones’ podcast in October, news that eluded MLBTR at the time.

Hunter, 37, pitched parts of 16 seasons in the majors. The Rangers selected the University of Alabama product in the supplemental first round of the 2007 draft. He got to the big leagues the following August. Operating as a starter for three seasons, Hunter compiled a 4.36 ERA before being dealt alongside future home run champ Chris Davis to the Orioles for Koji Uehara.

While Davis turned out to be the star of that return, Hunter was a very productive player for Baltimore in his own right. He struggled as a starter over the next season and a half but found a new gear upon moving to the bullpen in 2013. The right-hander turned in consecutive sub-3.00 ERA showings while surpassing 60 innings in 2013 and ’14, combining for a 2.88 ERA over that stretch.

Hunter found himself in another deadline trade in 2015. As an impending free agent on an average Baltimore team, he was flipped to the Cubs in a swap for outfielder Junior Lake. Hunter bounced around as a middle reliever from that point forward, suiting up with the Indians, Orioles again, Rays and Phillies through 2020. He saw action with the Mets in each of the past three seasons. Hunter was generally effective for the majority of that time, although he finished with a 6.85 ERA in 23 2/3 innings before New York released him this past June.

In the decade after his move to the bullpen, he allowed 3.33 earned runs per nine in 410 appearances with six franchises. Hunter never posted huge strikeout tallies, but he had consistently strong command and turned in five seasons with 50+ innings and an ERA below 4.00. He was part of the 2010 Texas team that won the American League pennant and started Game 4 of that year’s Fall Classic, allowing two runs over four innings in a 4-0 loss.

For his career, Hunter posted a 4.07 ERA across 917 1/3 frames. He recorded 639 punchouts, won 56 games, picked up 103 holds and collected 22 saves. Baseball Reference calculated his career earnings in the $36MM range. MLBTR congratulates Hunter on his productive, very lengthy run at the highest level and wishes him the best in his post-playing days.

Mets Sign Trayce Thompson To Minor League Deal

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The Mets have signed Trayce Thompson to a minor league deal, reports Andy Martino of SNY. The outfielder will receive an invitation to major league Spring Training.

Thompson, 33 in March, is coming off a frustrating season. He seemed to have a breakout in 2022, hitting 13 home runs in 80 games for the Dodgers. He struck out at a 36.5% clip but also drew walks in 12.5% of his plate appearances and his outfield defense was given strong marks. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 2.5 wins above replacement, a solid tally for barely half a season.

The Dodgers brought him back but he couldn’t maintain that in 2023. His performance was diminished in the first couple of months before he suffered a left oblique strain in early June. He was still on the injured list in late July when he was flipped to the White Sox as part of the Lance Lynn/Joe Kelly trade. He activated from the IL a few days later but continued to struggle. He finished the season with a 43% strikeout rate and batting line of .163/.285/.294. He was outrighted off Chicago’s roster at the end of the season.

The Mets will give Thompson a chance for a fresh start and add him to their outfield mix in a non-roster capacity. They have Brandon Nimmo in center field but questions in the corners. Starling Marte, who is coming off an injury-marred season, is slated to be in one corner. DJ Stewart could be in another corner after finishing 2023 on a tear, but he’s a poor defender and might be better utilized in a designated hitter/bench bat capacity. Thompson has played all three outfield spots in his career and can potentially slot in as needed. If he gets added to the roster at any point, he is out of options but has just over four years of major league service time, meaning he could be retained next year if he gets back in good form.

This offseason has seen the Mets place a particular emphasis on depth. In recent months, they have claimed Penn Murfee, Zack Short, Tyler Heineman and Cooper Hummel off waivers. They have given one-year deals to Luis Severino, Joey Wendle, Michael Tonkin, Jorge López and Austin Adams. They have also given minor league deals to Cole Sulser, Kyle Crick, José Iglesias, Taylor Kohlwey, Rylan Bannon and now Thompson.

Francisco Álvarez Open To Extension With Mets

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Catcher Francisco Álvarez is interested in discussing a long-term extension with the Mets, reports Tim Healey of Newsday. The club’s new president of baseball operations David Stearns spoke positively about extensions of young players in a general sense but declined to speak about an Álvarez extension specifically.

“It’s something that every organization has to explore and requires both sides to have interest,” Stearns said. “And certainly, as we go forward, hopefully we’ll have a number of players in that second and third [year] where it makes sense to talk to them about it.”

Álvarez, 22, has just over a year in the big leagues and has carried himself well. He has 26 home runs in 128 career games. His 26.1% strikeout rate is a tad high but he’s also walked at a reasonable 8.2% clip. His .208/.284/.439 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 98, indicating he’s been just barely below the league average hitter overall, though that’s better than par for a catcher.

In addition to that solid performance at the plate, he was graded well behind it. Each of FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Statcast considered him to be one of the top five pitch framers in the league this year. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a grade of +7 in 2023, a mark that only seven catchers bested that season. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 2.7 wins above replacement on the season overall.

Since he debuted before his 21st birthday, Álvarez is currently slated to reach free agency at a relatively young age. He has just over one year of service time at the moment, meaning he would hit the open market after 2028, his age-26 season. That will give him some leverage in contract talks, as he could simply go year-to-year and cash in at that point. But signing a deal now would allow him to lock in some life-changing money and avoid the risk of an injury sapping some of his earning power. As Healey points out, Álvarez could give the Mets an extra couple of years of control and still become a free agent in his late 20s.

The Mets have been one of the most aggressive spenders in recent years, with owner Steve Cohen having shown little regard for the bottom line since purchasing the club. That presumably gives them the ability to lock in any player they decide they want to keep. They have some significant contracts on the books in the short term, some for players no longer on the roster, but extensions for young players generally ramp up over time, with smaller salaries in the early years.

By 2028, only Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo have guaranteed contracts. Between now and then, significant deals for Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, James McCann, José Quintana, Luis Severino, Kodai Senga, Starling Marte, Edwin Díaz and Jeff McNeil will have wrapped up. But if the club makes a bold move, such as signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto or extending Pete Alonso, then that would obviously change things.

But given Cohen’s willingness to spend when he decides it’s warranted, they should be able to make something work with Álvarez if they consider him a core part of their next competitive window. It’s been signalled that 2024 will be a bit of a transition year as the club targets another full throttle push in 2025 and beyond. Álvarez is on pace to qualify for arbitration after that 2025 season so the club might like to get some cost certainty by agreeing to something earlier.

Extensions for players early in their careers are becoming more common. Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jiménez and Jackson Chourio got notable guarantees before even reaching the majors while players like Corbin Carroll, Julio Rodríguez and Fernando Tatis Jr. got nine-figure guarantees with limited MLB experience.

In terms of catchers, Keibert Ruiz signed an extension with the Nationals in March. He secured a $50MM guarantee over eight years while also giving the Nats two club options. Like Álvarez now, Ruiz was also between one and two years of service at that time but was a couple of years older, going into his age-24 campaign. His results prior to that deal were also bit below those of Álvarez, both offensively and defensively, so the Mets would almost certainly have to beat that Ruiz deal to get something done with Álvarez.

There’s no real rush for the club, as Álvarez isn’t slated to qualify for arbitration until after 2025. Even if they want to get something done this winter, teams generally prefer to focus on acquisitions in the earlier parts of the offseason and leave extensions for rostered players until closer to Spring Training.

MLBTR Poll: Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Market

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With Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto off the board, one of the next big questions of the offseason is what awaits NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The three-time defending Sawamura Award winner as Japan’s top pitcher is widely regarded as the best remaining free agent. Hitting the open market at a nearly unprecedented age of 25, he is generally viewed as a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Yamamoto is coming off a season in which he turned in a 1.21 ERA across 164 innings. He fanned nearly 27% of opposing hitters while issuing walks at a meager 4.4% clip. It was arguably the best season in an illustrious NPB career that has seen the 5’10” righty post a 1.82 ERA in just under 900 innings at baseball’s second-highest level.

The Athletic’s Eno Sarris examined Yamamoto’s repertoire on a pitch-by-pitch basis yesterday. Sarris raved about Yamamoto’s fastball, split, curveball combination and praised the strong command he showed when pitching in the World Baseball Classic last spring. He concurred that Yamamoto projects as a top-flight starter, an assessment shared by evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke at the start of the offseason.

MLBTR predicted Yamamoto would receive a nine-year, $225MM guarantee. Recent indications are that he’ll surpass that mark. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote last week that there’s growing belief within the industry that an MLB team’s expenditure on Yamamoto will top $300MM.

Passan’s suggestion of a $300MM+ investment includes the posting fee which an MLB team would owe to the Orix Buffaloes. (MLBTR’s contract prediction was separate from the posting fee.) That’s calculated as 20% of a contract’s first $25MM ($5MM), 17.5% of the next $25MM ($4.375MM) and 15% of any further spending. A $275MM guarantee for Yamamoto, for example, would come with a $43.125MM posting sum that’d push the overall investment by the MLB club to $318.125MM.

As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, Gerrit Cole’s nine-year, $324MM deal with the Yankees is the only $300MM+ contract for a one-way pitcher in MLB history. There’s a chance Yamamoto becomes the second pitcher to cross that threshold and at least an outside shot that he beats Cole’s guarantee to establish a new high-water mark.

It doesn’t hurt to have essentially every large-market franchise enamored with his upside. Yamamoto has seemingly been the top target for the Mets all offseason. He’s now the #1 priority for the Yankees and Dodgers after their respective splashes for Soto and Ohtani. The Giants and Blue Jays missed on Soto and Ohtani and are still motivated to make significant splashes. San Francisco made one such move yesterday by signing star KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year deal, but even after that hefty expenditure the Giants should still have the payroll and luxury-tax space to accommodate Yamamoto.

Yamamoto hosted Mets owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns in Japan last week. The pitcher is now on a North American tour of his own. He reportedly visited the Giants on Sunday and sat down with Yankee officials on Monday. He met with the Dodgers last night and is slated to meet with the Blue Jays and Red Sox later in the week. One or two others could still be involved.

The Buffaloes posted Yamamoto on November 20. That technically gives him until January 4 to sign, although the process isn’t expected to take that long. Both Passan and Will Sammon of the Athletic suggested last week the touted pitcher is likely to sign well before his posting window closes. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he has chosen his MLB team before Christmas.

How does the MLBTR readership anticipate Yamamoto’s bidding playing out? Where will he land and how lofty a guarantee will he secure?

 

 

Ronny Mauricio Diagnosed With Torn ACL, Will Undergo Surgery

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Mets infielder Ronny Mauricio has a torn ACL in his right knee and will require surgery, reports Andy Martino of SNY. A timeline for his recovery hasn’t been publicly reported but he’s likely to miss a notable amount of the upcoming campaign. Martino reported last night that Mauricio suffered the injury while playing winter ball in the Dominican Republic on Sunday.

Mauricio, 23 in April, made his major league debut as a September call-up a few months ago. He hit just .248/.296/.347 in his first taste of the big leagues, but in a small sample of just 26 games. He has been considered one of the top 100 prospects in the league for years, hitting 20 homers in the minors in each of the past three years. He also has some speed, stealing 24 bags in the minors this year and another seven in the majors.

He’s generally considered to be a passable shortstop but the Mets have moved him elsewhere due to their specific circumstances. Francisco Lindor is under contract through 2031 and is still considered one of the best defensive shortstops in the league, so the club has had Mauricio line up at second base, third base and left field.

Just last week, president of baseball operations David Stearns said that the club would stick with internal options for third base, with Mauricio set to compete with Brett Baty and Mark Vientos for playing time there. None of those three players have established themselves as viable big leaguers yet, but the club was seemingly content to go into 2024 hoping that one of them would pull away from the other two.

Now that calculation could change in light of this new development. It’s still unclear how long the club expects Mauricio to be out, but it will likely be the majority of the upcoming season. For reference, Rhys Hoskins tore his anterior cruciate ligament in Spring Training earlier this year and still wasn’t able to rejoin the Phillies by the time they were eliminated in the NLCS in late October. Mauricio will have a few extra months on Hoskins since his injury occurred in December, but he’s still probably looking at a late-season return in a best-case scenario.

That will leave the club with Baty and Vientos as their third base options in the short term. Baty was also a top 100 prospect on his way up to the majors but has underwhelmed in the majors thus far, having hit .210/.272/.325 in his first 431 plate appearances with subpar defense. Vientos is fairly similar, with a line of .205/.255/.354 in 274 plate appearances at the big league level.

The club has added some infield depth by signing Joey Wendle to a major league deal and claiming Zack Short off waivers from the Tigers. Martino suggests the club is likely to add some extra insurance at the hot corner and floats Justin Turner as a speculative fit. It may be a bit of a tricky calculus as they won’t want to completely cut off Baty, Vientos or Mauricio from playing time throughout the year. Each has performed extremely well in the minors and the club is planning a sort of transition year in 2024, making it the perfect time to give some rope to such players. The injury to Mauricio will obviously lessen his ability to take advantage of those circumstances in the coming campaign but the Mets might still want to see if either Baty or Vientos can run with the third base job.

That makes this the second straight offseason wherein the Mets are potentially losing a player for the entirety of the upcoming campaign due to a knee injury. Closer Edwin Díaz required surgery on his patellar tendon back in the spring after injuring himself during the World Baseball Classic. He attempted to rehab throughout 2023 but pumped the brakes on that when the club fell out of contention, eventually sitting out the entire season.

Mets Sign Rylan Bannon To Minor League Deal

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The Mets announced Monday morning that they’ve signed infielder Rylan Bannon to a minor league contract. The Beverly Hills Sports Council client will be invited to big league camp in spring training.

Bannon, 27, has appeared in parts of two big league seasons and appeared with three clubs despite only tallying a total of 21 plate appearances. He’s collected just two hits in that time, both coming with the Orioles. He’s also had very brief stints with the Braves and Astros.

A former eighth-round pick by the Dodgers, Bannon was once a fairly well-regarded prospect who went from Los Angeles to Baltimore as one of five prospects in the 2018 Manny Machado swap. He spent all of last season with the Astros organization, batting .241/.360/.449 with a dozen homers and steals apiece in 408 trips to the plate. In parts of four Triple-A seasons, Bannon carries a .232/.344/.426 batting line with a huge 13.8% walk rate against a 22% strikeout rate.

Bannon has primarily played third base in his professional career, logging more than 3100 innings at the hot corner between the minors and the big leagues. He also carries more than 1300 innings at second base, however, and is viewed as a viable option at either position. He’s more of an emergency option at shortstop, where he’s played 86 career innings.

Newly hired president of baseball operations David Stearns has primarily completed on depth signings in his first several weeks on the job, though the Mets are reported to be in pursuit of several more notable free agent and trade targets. Bannon joins Cole Sulser, Jose Iglesias, Taylor Kohlwey and Andre Scrubb as former big leaguers to sign minor league deals with the Mets in recent weeks. New York has also claimed Cooper Hummel, Tyler Heineman and Zack Short off waivers and signed Jorge Lopez, Joey Wendle, Austin Adams and Michael Tonkin to low-cost deals that put them on the 40-man roster.

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