Latest On Dellin Betances
7:52am: Betances is hoping to secure a one-year deal in the $10MM range, Heyman tweets. That’s the same guarantee Blake Treinen just landed with the Dodgers, although while Treinen had a down season in 2019, he was at least healthy and pitched 58 2/3 innings in 2019.
Dec. 17, 5:55am: The Mets are now considered unlikely to sign Betances, Heyman tweets. SNY’s Andy Martino hears similarly, tweeting that it doesn’t sound as though the Mets will be the team to land the right-hander.
Dec. 16: A report at the end of November indicated the Phillies were among the teams chasing free-agent reliever Dellin Betances. That remains the case, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (by way of Jack Curry of the YES Network), as he relays that they and the NL East rival Mets are “prominent” in the Betances sweepstakes.
Heading to Philadelphia would reunite Betances with skipper Joe Girardi, who managed the hard-throwing right-hander with the Yankees from 2011-17. Betances had some of the best years of his outstanding career during that stretch, but he’s now coming off an injury-ravaged season in which he barely pitched. Shoulder, lat and Achilles problems limited the 31-year-old Betances to a total of two-thirds of an inning in 2019, leaving him as a strong candidate to sign a short-term deal this winter. MLBTR predicts he’ll ink a one-year, $7MM contract, which should be a reasonable gamble for the Phillies or any other team in need of bullpen help.
A $7MM price tag for a reliever fresh off a limited campaign may have looked somewhat steep for the Mets earlier in the offseason, but they’ve come into some money in recent days with the reworking of outfielder Yoenis Cespedes‘ contract. Cespedes, who went through two injury-wrecked years from 2018-19, had been slated to earn $29.5MM next season. However, Cespedes and the Mets just agreed to an amended contract that will guarantee him a far more team-friendly sum (less than $10MM) in 2020.
The Mets have more to work with as a result of Cespedes’ pay cut, and a source told Ken Davidoff of the New York Post that they’re “nowhere near done” after signing starters Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha. Perhaps they’ll use some of the money that had been earmarked for Cespedes on Betances, who – at least on paper – would vastly improve the back end of a bullpen that was a frequent issue last season. Notably, new Mets manager Carlos Beltran was once teammates with Betances as a Yankee.
Mets Designate Stephen Nogosek For Assignment
The Mets announced Monday that they’ve designated right-hander Stephen Nogosek for assignment. His spot on the roster will go to right-hander Rick Porcello, whose previously reported one-year, $10MM contract is now official.
Nogosek, 24, was the last of three remaining pitchers in the organization that the Mets had acquired when trading Addison Reed to the Red Sox back in 2017. Fellow righties Gerson Bautista (traded to Seattle in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz deal) and Jamie Callahan (outrighted and signed with the Giants) have both gone to other clubs within the past 13 months.
Nogosek made his MLB debut with the Mets this past season but was roughed up for eight runs on a dozen hits and two walks with six strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings out of the bullpen. The 2016 sixth-round pick posted an eye-popping 1.07 ERA in 50 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A in 2019, although his control (4.9 BB/9, 12.8 BB%) wasn’t great and he benefited from a .155 BABIP in 31 1/3 innings of Triple-A ball.
On the one hand, Nogosek is a fairly young reliever with minor league options remaining, a heater that averaged 95.1 mph in his brief MLB cup of coffee an a longstanding knack for avoiding home runs (0.81 HR/9 in 199 minor league innings). On the other hand, he’s a pronounced fly-ball pitcher with a persistent control issues who’ll need to continue avoiding the long ball against the game’s best hitters due to that limited ability to locate the ball. He’ll turn 25 in July and is more or less MLB-ready, so a club could take a look at him via a minor trade or a waiver pickup. The Mets will have a week to trade Nogosek or place him on outright waivers in hopes that he’ll clear and remain in the organization.
Mets Sign Rick Porcello
Dec. 16: The Mets have formally announced the signing.
Dec. 12: The Mets have struck a deal with free agent righty Rick Porcello, according to Ken Rosenthal and Eno Sarris of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’s a one-year, $10MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
This is a long-rumored match that’ll put the New Jersey native back in familiar territory. It’s a bit surprising to see now, though, after the Mets reportedly agreed yesterday to ink Michael Wacha. Both of these buy-low hurlers would figure to command rotation jobs, leaving the Mets with six clear candidates for the five-man unit. Whether or not that could produce a trade remains to be seen, but now appears plausible on paper.
Porcello, who’ll turn 31 later this month, is far removed from his surprising Cy Young season. There have been some lean years in between, but he has always answered the bell. Porcello has taken the ball for at least 32 starts in each of the past four campaigns and has only once failed to top 170 MLB frames in a season (2010, when he threw 162 2/3).
Any pitcher is a theoretical health risk, but Porcello’s record of durability is second to none. The Mets can safely assume they’ll get innings from their new starter … but of what quality?
Outside of a few particularly good and bad seasons, Porcello has mostly hovered around the low-4 ERA range. Through more than two thousand innings in the majors, he carries a 4.36 ERA that lines up with his lifetime peripherals: 6.7 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 47.5% groundball rate. Fielding-independent pitching metrics largely concur with the results (4.09 FIP; 4.03 xFIP; 4.09 SIERA).
The Mets would be glad to see Porcello take the ball thirty-plus times and settle right around that four-earned-per-nine mark. But will he? Other teams reportedly offered three-year arrangements in an effort to woo Porcello, so there’s obviously some belief in the game that it’s plausible. But he’s also coming off of his ugliest season as a big leaguer.
In 2019, Porcello struggled to a 5.52 ERA in 174 1/3 innings. ERA estimators weren’t much more positive (4.76 FIP; 5.15 xFIP; 4.86 SIERA). He isn’t allowing an alarming rate of home runs per flyball (13.1%), but hitters have had greater success getting the ball in the air against him. He averaged a personal-worst 38.1% grounder rate and personal-high 41.5% flyball rate in 2019.
Perhaps it’s just a matter of a few well-conceived tweaks. Porcello has lost a bit of arm speed, though he’s still within range of his typical velocity levels. Opposing batters produced bigger-than-usual levels in hard-hit rate (37.2%) and launch angle (15.5 degrees), though neither figure was wildly out of line with Porcello’s prior history. Likewise, Porcello’s swinging-strike rate of 8.0% was on the low side for his recent track record but not a signal of a drastic shift in physical tools or efficacy.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Mets Agree To Sign Michael Wacha
DECEMBER 15: Anthony DiComo of MLB.com has the breakdown on the incentives in Wacha’s contract. He’ll earn $500K for making 10, 14, and 18 starts, along with $500K for each start from 20-30. Finally, Wacha can earn $1.35MM worth of award bonuses. With $8.35MM worth of incentives, Wacha’s total earning potential for 2020 comes out to $11.35MM.
DECEMBER 11, 3:23pm: There’s a deal in place pending a physical, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). It guarantees $3MM, per Sherman (via Twitter), with up to $7MM in possible incentives.
3:09pm: The Mets are “working hard to finalize” a contract with righty Michael Wacha, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). If completed, it’ll be for a one-year term; financials have yet to be reported.
If this deal is wrapped up, Wacha would presumably round out the New York starting five. He’d also become the latest client of CAA — the former outfit of Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen — to join the New York organization.
It’s interesting to see Wacha heading in on a bounceback arrangement as Zack Wheeler departs with a huge contract. It wasn’t long ago that the former was seen as a major free agent target of the future, while the latter’s career was in limbo owing to health reasons.
Now, it’s Wacha who is trying to prove he can stay healthy and restore his former effectiveness. The former first-round pick has had some peaks to go with the valleys in recent years, but hasn’t looked like the budding young staff he was in 2013-15.
Last season, Wacha turned in a 4.76 ERA with 7.4 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 over 126 2/3 innings. With balls flying out of the yard at a rate of 1.8 per nine, he was ultimately demoted to the bullpen. Wacha ended up averaging a career-low 93.4 mph with his fastball, though that’s only one tick off from his overall career average.
It’s tough to say just how much upside Wacha offers at this stage. He was able to stay on the mound for most of 2019 but hasn’t been as effective as he was before shoulder and back issues began to crop up. Statcast numbers don’t offer much in the way of encouragement; if anything, they suggest his strong ’18 output (3.20 ERA in 84 1/3 innings) was based upon some good fortune (.249 BABIP-against, .286 wOBA vs. .350 xwOBA). Still, it’s awfully tempting to dream on a powerhouse Mets rotation if Wacha and Steven Matz are able to turn in healthy and productive campaigns.
Trade/FA Rumblings: Arenado, Keuchel, Cards, Twins, Marlins, Mets, Correa
The Rockies are reportedly willing to listen to offers for their franchise player, third baseman Nolan Arenado. General manager Jeff Bridich all but confirmed that’s the case, Nick Groke of The Athletic relays (subscription link).
“Look, this is the time of year where those conversations happen,” Bridich said. “This is the time of year where we at least listen to teams and go, ‘OK, well, should we try to investigate and put something together.’ We have people to do those sorts of things. I can’t sit here and say, ‘No, never, ever.’ Some of this stuff started back at the trade deadline and it’s kind of ongoing.”
Bridich is still of the opinion the Rockies, as presently constructed, can push for a championship in 2020, Groke notes. Arenado, of course, plays an irreplaceable role in that belief. However, with so few above-average third basemen currently available (Josh Donaldson‘s a free agent and Kris Bryant may end up on the move via trade), teams could come calling with appealing offers if the Rockies place Arenado on the block. Arenado has full no-trade rights as part of the seven-year, $234MM extension Colorado signed him to last offseason, though he has expressed frustration regarding the Rockies’ nightmarish 2019. So, if a contender tries to acquire him, perhaps the 28-year-old will be open to leaving the Rockies. Regardless of whether a trade comes together, Arenado has the ability to opt out of his contract after 2021.
Here are more rumblings from around the game…
- A report earlier this week suggested the Cardinals haven’t shown much recent interest in Dallas Keuchel, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the club’s “intrigued” by the free-agent left-hander. The Cardinals were also among the teams in on Keuchel last season before he signed a one-year, $13MM contract with the Braves in June, thereby ending a shockingly long stay on the market. The soon-to-be 32-year-old didn’t have a great few months in Atlanta, but he should nonetheless do better in free agency this time. MLBTR predicts he’ll sign a three-year, $39MM pact.
- At this week’s Winter Meetings, Miami and Minnesota discussed a trade that would see the Marlins send right-hander Elieser Hernandez to the Twins for outfielder Jake Cave, according to Craig Mish of FNTSY Sports Radio. While there’s no indication a deal is on the way, the Twins are at least “open” to trading Cave and would like a pitcher in return, Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News tweets. Age (24 versus 27) is on Hernandez’s side, but Cave was the better producer in 2019. Cave slashed .258/.351/.455 in 228 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Hernandez put up a 5.03 ERA/5.58 FIP despite logging 9.29 K/9 against 2.84 BB/9 across 82 1/3 innings. Neither player is on track to reach arbitration until after 2021.
- Although the possibility of the Mets acquiring Astros star shortstop Carlos Correa has been branded as more fantasy than reality, the teams did have “active” talks from November up to this week, Andy Martino of SNY reports. However, those discussions have “fizzled,” per Martino. For what it’s worth, Astros GM Jeff Luhnow has told Correa not to worry about a trade. Barring something unforeseen, it appears Amed Rosario will continue as New York’s starting shortstop in 2020.
Mets Announce Wacha Signing, Designate Chris Mazza
The Mets announced today that they have signed righty Michael Wacha, as previously reported. To create 40-man space, the club designated fellow right-hander Chris Mazza for assignment.
Mazza made his MLB debut last year, throwing 16 1/3 innings of 5.51 ERA ball over nine outings. He was better in the upper minors, working in the mid-three ERA range in stints at the Double-A and Triple-A levels. Mazza has a penchant for drawing groundballs on the farm, though he’ll need to prove he can do so consistently in the bigs if he’s able to earn his way back up.
Wacha tells reporters that he expects to function as a starter in New York. Indeed, that was a key factor in his decision, he suggested. (Via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo, on Twitter.) With Rick Porcello also set to join the staff on the same premise, it seems the Mets will at some point strike a trade involving another starter (or have some explaining to do).
Minor MLB Transactions: 12/12/19
Let’s check in on Thursday’s minor moves…
- The Mets have signed right-hander Pedro Payano to a minor league contract, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. As a member of the Texas organization, the 25-year-old Payano struggled to prevent runs in the minors and the majors over the past couple seasons. He made a 22-inning big league debut in 2019 and logged a 5.73 ERA with almost as many walks (15) as strikeouts (17). Walks were also an issue in Triple-A ball last season for Payano, who issued 6.1 free passes per nine (against 9.58 strikeouts) en route to a 5.44 ERA across 41 1/3 frames. The Rangers designated Payano for assignment and then outrighted him in September.
- The Cardinals have reunited with left-hander Rob Kaminsky on a minors pact, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets. Kaminsky was the 28th overall pick of the Cardinals in the 2013 draft, but they traded him to the Indians two years later for slugger Brandon Moss. Now 25 years old, Kaminsky still hasn’t reached the majors, nor has he garnered much Triple-A experience. In his debut at the minors’ highest level last season, Kaminsky posted a 5.11 ERA with 11.31 K/9, 5.11 BB/9 and a 59.1 percent groundball rate in 24 2/3 relief innings.
Pitching Rumors: Ryu, Leclerc, Betances, Hader, Thor
Earlier this week, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register and other reporters that he has discussed a new deal for Hyun-Jin Ryu with agent Scott Boras. For now, though, Ryu’s under the impression his longtime club isn’t particularly interested in bringing him back. “If the Dodgers wanted to re-sign me, they would have told my agent,” the left-hander said (via Yonhap News Agency). “I haven’t heard from him yet, and honestly, I don’t have much to tell you right now.” Ryu and Madison Bumgarner, another potential Dodgers target, represent the two best free-agent starters left in a market that has lost Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg over the past few days. Should the Dodgers fail to sign either of them, it’s unclear where they’ll turn if they’re determined to land another high-end starter.
- Rangers right-handed reliever Jose Leclerc is generating “a lot of interest” from other clubs, Levi Weaver of The Athletic tweets. That said, it’s not known whether the Rangers are open to trading their most valuable reliever – whom they signed to a team-friendly extension last offseason. The hard-throwing Leclerc, 25, is controllable for five more seasons (including two club options) and is only due a guaranteed $12.25MM over the rest of his deal. That’s one of the reasons he’d likely bring back a quality haul in a trade, which could create a conundrum for general manager Jon Daniels.
- It appears increasingly likely that reliever Dellin Betances‘ time with the Yankees is up. There’s no “active dialogue” between the Yankees and the free-agent righty’s camp, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. The 31-year-old Betances was excellent as a Yankee until injuries derailed him in 2019, when he faced a total of two batters. It seems the Yankees have turned their attention to another established reliever, Brewers lefty Josh Hader, whom they’re reportedly pursuing on the trade market. But Sherman throws a bit of cold water on that, writing that the two teams “did not seem to have substantial traction” in talks as the Winter Meetings wrapped up.
- The Mets just added two starters in Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha, giving them at least viable rotation candidates. Those somewhat modest signings won’t affect righty Noah Syndergaard‘s place on the team’s roster, though. GM Brodie Van Wagenen continues to insist the Mets are not going to trade Syndergaard, Sherman relays. In fact, with Jacob deGrom, Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, Steven Matz, Porcello and Wacha as the Mets’ top six starters, Van Wagenen’s of the belief that they have the deepest rotation in baseball.
Yankees, Dodgers, Mets Reportedly In Market For Josh Hader
With the top end of the relief market going off the board early, teams looking for elite pen arms have been eyeing trade possibilities. The most intriguing of those: star Brewers lefty Josh Hader, who was recently reported to have been made available in talks. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently updated the market situation (subscription link).
Left-handed American League East hitters will be particularly distraught to learn that the Yankees “have been the most active pursuer” of Hader. The Yanks already possess two dynamic southpaws in Aroldis Chapman and Zack Britton. Having already brought in Chapman and Gerrit Cole this offseason, a move for Hader would make a stunning trifecta of high-powered arms.
Other clubs have also put in calls to Brewers GM David Stearns. The list includes the Dodgers and Mets, according to Rosenthal. No doubt a variety of other organizations are also checking in to see whether it might be possible to structure a mutually agreeable trade. Hader could take over as a traditional closer or function as a roving high-leverage out-getter, as suits a given team’s preferences.
Hader’s appeal lies not only in his strikeout-producing left arm, but also his age (26 in April) and contract rights. He’s controllable for four more seasons through the arbitration process. Those won’t come cheap, as Hader projects to earn $4.6MM as a Super Two and could yet attempt to argue for more in a high-stakes hearing. (A prior attempt to shake up the arb system for relievers didn’t work out for Dellin Betances, though Hader has more saves to his record.) Still, it’s a far sight shy of what it would cost to acquire a similar pitcher on the open market — not that it’s even possible to do so.
Astros Notes: Correa, Mets, Toro, Barnes, Dodgers
Carlos Correa‘s name came up in trade speculation on Tuesday, leading the shortstop to take time out of his honeymoon to call Jeff Luhnow, the Astros general manager told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart). Luhnow told the former Rookie Of The Year to not worry about the reports, and he further dismissed the idea of any major trades on Wednesday, telling media members that he would be “surprised if we moved any of our core players.” Some type of creative salary management seems inevitable, however, if the Astros are to make roster upgrades while avoiding at least the top level ($248MM+) of luxury tax punishment level. Houston already has a projected tax number of just over $231MM, as per Roster Resource, so even getting under the secondary punishment threshold of $228MM will take work. Since this would mark Houston’s first time over the luxury tax barrier, they would at least face only a first-timer charge, though topping the $248MM mark would also come with a ten-slot drop in their 2021 draft order.
More from the American League champions…
- The Mets were one team that at least checked in about Correa, SNY.tv’s Andy Martino tweets, though MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo described these conversations as “more fantasy baseball” than a truly serious discussion. New York would make an intriguing suitor for Correa since the Mets have a former top-tier prospect of their own at shortstop in Amed Rosario, and it’s fair to wonder whether Rosario would have been a logical trade chip to head Houston’s way in any Correa deal.
- Luhnow also told reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle) that he had been receiving “a number of inquiries” about Abraham Toro. MLB Pipeline ranks Toro as the Astros’ fifth-best prospect, after the 22-year-old hit .273/.365/.461 with 48 homers over 1544 career minor league PA. This led to Toro making his Major League debut last season, a 25-game/89-PA stint highlighted by his ninth-inning, two-run homer that provided the only offense Justin Verlander needed in his September 1st no-hitter against the Blue Jays. Toro has mostly played third base, though he has some experience at first and second base as well, making him even more attractive to interested teams. This multi-position ability could position Toro as Yuli Gurriel‘s heir apparent since Gurriel is a free agent after 2020, or the Astros’ payroll crunch could potentially get them to consider including Toro along with a hefty contract to clear some space on the books.
- The Astros have asked the Dodgers about catcher Austin Barnes, Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times reports (via Twitter), as Houston likes Barnes’ pitch-framing ability. It wasn’t long ago that Barnes seemed to be in line to be the Dodgers’ catcher of the future, though after hitting only .204/.311/.316 over 480 plate appearances in 2018-19, Barnes has firmly fallen behind Will Smith on the depth chart. Plus, Los Angeles has Keibert Ruiz on the way up as another blue chip catching prospect, making Barnes all the more potentially expendable. StatCorner and Baseball Prospectus do indeed give Barnes high grades for his framing, with BP also grading his blocking ability as generally above average. Barnes is signed for $1.1MM in 2020 and is arbitration-controlled through 2022, though he isn’t a youngster, as he turns 30 at the end of December.