Free Agent Faceoff: Wheeler Vs. Bumgarner Vs. Ryu
It doesn’t take a baseball savant to figure out that Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg are the two best pitchers on the free-agent market. Cole is on a collision course with the largest contract a hurler has ever secured, a sure bet to outdo the $217MM Boston’s David Price received four years ago, while Strasburg could come within $20MM to $30MM of the $200MM mark in his own right. After those two aces, the starting market for free agents gets a lot less interesting, but that’s not to suggest it’s made up of nothing but back-end types. Quite the contrary, actually, as MLBTR forecasts that four other starters will land guarantees worth at least $50MM this offseason.
Former Met Zack Wheeler, longtime Giant Madison Bumgarner and ex-Dodger Hyun-Jin Ryu make up the remainder of the top five free-agent starters after Cole and Strasburg. Going by projected earning power, Wheeler is easily the most desirable of the trio. We’ve got him signing for $100MM over a half-decade, Bumgarner putting pen to paper on a four-year, $72MM accord and Ryu getting a three-year, $54MM contract. But you’re well within your rights to want Bumgarner or Ryu over Wheeler. Let’s take a closer look at the touted troika, and then you can vote on who’s the most appealing…
Zack Wheeler, RHP
Age: 30 in May
Qualifying offer? Yes
- Wheeler missed almost all of 2015-17 while dealing with arm issues, including a Tommy John procedure, but he has emphatically put those days behind him. He has been one of the most productive starters in baseball over the past two seasons, having tossed 180-plus innings of sub-4.00 ERA, four-plus-fWAR ball in each year. But it’s not just the bottom-line production that has put Wheeler on clubs’ radars. It’s also his elite fastball velocity, which clocked in at a personal-high 96.7 mph in 2019. His fastball and curveball spin were also better than average, per Statcast, while his average exit velocity against (86.2 mph; 90th percentile) and hard-hit rate against (32.2 percent; 82nd percentile) were near the top of the league.
Madison Bumgarner, LHP
Age: 30
Qualifying offer? Yes
- Bumgarner’s legendary postseason exploits are well-documented, but he hasn’t pitched a playoff game since 2016. Over the past couple years, Bumgarner’s days as a front-line starter have seemingly faded away. But he remains a major asset, someone just about any team would be happy to plug into its rotation. After a couple injury-shortened seasons, Bumgarner reestablished his durability in 2019 with 207 2/3 innings of 3.90 ERA/FIP ball and 8.8 K/9 and 1.86 BB/9. And Bumgarner’s fastball/curve spin rates were near the apex of the league this season, for what it’s worth.
Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP
Age: 33 by next season
Qualifying offer? No
- No one in this group did a better job preventing runs this year than Ryu, who’s an NL Cy Young finalist after recording a 2.32 ERA/3.10 FIP, 8.03 K/9 against 1.18 BB/9, and a 50.4 percent groundball rate across 182 2/3 innings. Terrific results are par for the course for Ryu – on a per-start basis, he may be the No. 1 pitcher here – but age and injury history threaten to hinder him to some degree on the open market. Ryu missed all of 2015 and then threw anywhere from 4 2/3 to 126 2/3 innings in each season from 2016-18.
There you have it, a quick rundown of the three premier free-agent starters not named Cole or Strasburg. Considering their histories, their qualifying offer statuses and their potential earning power, who’s the one you’d most like to sign?
(Poll link for app users)
Which starter would you sign?
-
Madison Bumgarner 40% (5,623)
-
Zack Wheeler 38% (5,327)
-
Hyun-Jin Ryu 23% (3,191)
Total votes: 14,141
AL East Notes: McNeil, Rays, Didi, Shapiro
“The Rays were focused on” super-utilityman Jeff McNeil in trade talks with the Mets last offseason, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. McNeil’s multi-position ability and pre-arbitration salary status make him an ideal target for the Rays, making Sherman wonder if Tampa Bay could again target McNeil this winter, though the Mets’ asking price has surely gone up in the wake of McNeil’s outstanding 2019 season. Sherman’s piece floats some potential trades to help the Mets address their center field need, including his speculative suggestion of a Kevin Kiermaier/Yonny Chirinos for McNeil swap. The Rays would get their desired “low-cost Swiss Army Knife” of a player and also get Kiermaier’s contract off the books, with Chirinos involved to add a young arm to New York’s rotation and entice the Mets to swallow Kiermaier’s $36MM in remaining salary. Sherman looks further within the AL East to cite the Red Sox as another possible trade partners for the center field-needy Mets, as Jackie Bradley Jr. could be available, or there’s always the “pipedream” of a one-for-one swap of Mookie Betts for Noah Syndergaard.
More from around the East…
- The Yankees decided against issuing a one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer to Didi Gregorius, leaving SNY.tv’s Andy Martino wondering if the shortstop’s days in the Bronx could be over. One industry source describes the chances of Gregorius returning to New York in 2020 as “a very close call,” especially since Martino notes that Gregorius and his representatives believe they can find a multi-year deal in free agency. Even after an injury-shortened down year, Gregorius is still the best shortstop option on the free agent market; MLBTR ranked him 12th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents and predicted he’d land a three-year, $42MM contract. It’s worth noting that this deal would work out to less in average annual value than the one-year cost of the QO, so it isn’t out of the question that the Yankees could still try to bring back Gregorius for multiple years, though at a smaller hit to their 2020 luxury tax number.
- Blue Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro discussed Vladimir Guerrero Jr.‘s offseason training regiment, baseball labor relations, and some hot stove business amidst a variety of topics in a radio interview with The Fan 590’s Scott MacArthur, Ashley Docking, and Mike Zigomanis (audio link). The Blue Jays are known to be looking for pitching this winter, with Shapiro saying “we’re going to have to be aggressive on every level of the free agent starting pitcher landscape.” This could mean at least checking into the top-tier names on the pitching market, though given Shapiro also noted that “if you look at the history of free agent pitching contracts, it is a really, really, really high-risk area to play in.” All things considered, the odds seem to be against Toronto landing an elite arm like Gerrit Cole at this point in their rebuilding process. “Dollars are not going to be our challenge, which hasn’t always been the case,” Shapiro said. “It’s going to be where we fit with Gerrit’s alignment of interests…same thing with every free agent we pursue. What I am confident is, that throughout the free agency process we’ll be able to get better this winter, and we’ll have the resources to do it.”
- There have been rumors about a possible extension between Shapiro and the Blue Jays since 2020 is the last year of the CEO’s deal, though he didn’t give any new details on that front. Shapiro did reiterate his desire to stay in Toronto and “I’ve received nothing but positive feedback from the people that I report to about wanting me to remain here.”
NL Notes: Carpenter, Giants, Mets
A quick look around the National League…
- The 2019 season was surprisingly pedestrian for Cardinals third baseman Matt Carpenter, a normally excellent producer who fell flat after the team signed him to a two-year, $39MM extension in April. Carpenter stepped to the plate 492 times and hit a mediocre .226/.334/.392 with 15 home runs, giving him the lowest wRC+ (95) and fWAR (1.2) he has posted over a full season since debuting in 2011. But Carpenter, who will turn 34 later this month, seemingly hasn’t lost the confidence of Cardinals brass. ”‘Carp’ obviously will have a better season, we expect. He’s highly motivated,” chairman Bill DeWitt said this week (via Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). President of baseball operations John Mozeliak echoed that sentiment, saying the Cardinals’ confidence in Carpenter is “high” and calling this year “an outlier.” Of course, the Cardinals don’t have much choice but to publicly show faith in Carpenter, whom they’re likely stuck with because of the money left on his contract and his no-trade clause.
- As of last week, Royals quality control coach Pedro Grifol was reportedly one of the finalists to become the Giants’ next manager. That no longer seems to be the case, though. Grifol is now completely out of the race, according to the San Francisco Chronicle’s John Shea, who names ex-Phillies manager Gabe Kapler, current Astros bench coach Joe Espada and Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro as the last candidates standing. Grifol, Kapler, Espada and Quartaro make up four of 10-plus candidates who have interviewed with the Giants, per Shea. There’s no deadline to hire a new skipper, however, and with the Giants one of just two teams without a manager, there’s seemingly no reason to rush.
- The Mets negotiated with relievers Daniel Hudson and Jake Diekman when they were free agents a year ago, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reports. The club ultimately didn’t land either, instead watching Hudson sign with the Angels on a minor league contract and Diekman land with the Royals for a guaranteed $2.75MM. Hudson then wound up with the Blue Jays and finished the season as a member of the Nationals, with whom he emerged as one of many key cogs during their improbable World Series run. Diekman concluded the campaign with the Athletics, who traded for him in July. Now that Hudson and Diekman are back on the open market, the Mets – who remain in need of competent relievers – could again push for one or both, though there’s no indication they plan on doing so.
Latest On Mets’ Rotation
The Mets have begun the offseason in a bit of a bind in their rotation. On one hand, they have a 1-4 most teams would gladly sign up for in Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman and Steven Matz. On the other, they’re facing the loss of Zack Wheeler – undoubtedly one of the best free agents available – and find themselves lacking answers at the back of their starting staff.
Considering the Mets play in a massive market, they should theoretically have the money to re-sign Wheeler and/or acquire some other pricey starter. But the Mets don’t behave like a team with a near-endless supply of money, and as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explained a couple weeks ago, paying for improvements looks as if it will be a challenge for the club this offseason. The Mets have never started a season with a $160MM-plus payroll, yet they already appear to be above that figure right now without having made a single offseason improvement. Barring a significant spike in payroll, then, it’s doubtful the Mets will be serious players for Wheeler or any other starters who are remotely close to the top of the market.
Thanks in part to their payroll problems, the Mets seem to be making in-house contingency plans for the back of their starting staff. When introducing new manager Carlos Beltran on Monday, GM Brodie Van Wagenen told reporters including Tim Britton of The Athletic (subscription link) that the Mets are considering deploying Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo as starters in 2020. The two “are preparing this offseason with the expectations that they may well enter the rotation,” according to Van Wagenen.
Gsellman and Lugo were starters as prospects who frequented the Mets’ rotation a few years back, but they’ve settled into relief roles in recent years. Still just 26 years old, Gsellman thrived as a starter during a brief debut in 2016, but his bubble burst the next season. Since then, all 120 of Gsellman’s appearances have come as a reliever. He amassed 63 2/3 innings over 52 appearances this year and logged a 4.66 ERA/4.13 FIP with 8.48 K/9 and 3.25 BB/9. Those aren’t great numbers, though Gsellman did average a career-high 95.4 mph on his fastball and 90.6 mph on his slider. He also ranked near the top of the majors in curveball spin (83rd percentile), hard-hit rate against (88th percentile) and average exit velocity against (85.3 mph; 96th percentile), among other Statcast metrics.
Gsellman’s more traditional production hasn’t been dominant, whereas Lugo has been lights-out since moving to the bullpen on essentially a full-time basis in 2018. The soon-to-be 30-year-old pitched to a matching 2.70 ERA/FIP with outstanding strikeout and walk rates (11.7 K/9, 1.8 BB/9) in 61 appearances and 80 innings this season. Like Gsellman, Lugo’s fastball (94.4 mph) and slider (88.1 mph) clocked in at personal highs, and he was another Statcast favorite. Amazingly, Lugo’s curve spin ranked in the game’s 100th percentile, while his expected weighted on-base average against (.234, compared to a real .237 wOBA against) placed in the 99th percentile.
To varying extents, Gsellman and Lugo have clearly been assets for New York’s bullpen. Whether that would carry into the team’s starting five if necessary remains to be seen. However, moving one or both into the rotation may just create another hole for the club. The Mets’ bullpen, after all, was a consistent issue throughout this year and looks like an area they’ll somehow have to address as a result. That already looks as if it will be difficult when considering what seems like a lack of financial wiggle room for the team, and that’s with Gsellman and Lugo penciled in to remain part of the late-game setup.
The Mets are in a good spot with deGrom, Syndergaard, Stroman and Matz, though there’s little in the way of solutions or depth otherwise. That helps explain why Van Wagenen claimed lefty Stephen Gonsalves, a former top 100 prospect, from the Twins on Monday. Gonsalves could end up as one of at least a few low-cost hurlers the Mets pick up this offseason as they look for back-of-the-rotation help. But if no one they bring in pans out, perhaps Gsellman or Lugo will slot back into a starting role.
Latest On Yoenis Cespedes
It’s easy to forget about him after back-to-back injury-ruined seasons, but Yoenis Cespedes is still a member of the Mets. When the club re-signed Cespedes to a four-year, $110MM contract entering 2017, he was coming off his latest star-caliber showing at the plate, but it proved to be the first of three straight painfully short seasons for the outfielder. Cespedes played 81 games that year, 38 in 2018 and none this season. Heel and ankle problems kept Cespedes off the field this year, and the Mets aren’t sure when or if he’ll return in 2020, Matt Ehalt of Yahoo Sports relays.
General manager Brodie Van Wagenen, who happens to be Cespedes’ former agent, said Monday it’s “too early to tell” about his chances of playing in 2020. There’s not “enough information to predict when he’s going to be back,” Van Wagenen added. As Ehalt points out, Cespedes’ up-in-the-air status only serves to complicate matters for Van Wagenen, who’s in a crucial second offseason atop the Mets’ baseball department, as well as the organization as a whole.
With a $29.5MM salary, the 34-year-old Cespedes is the Mets’ highest-paid player. Because Cespedes’ contract is insured, the club’s in position to recoup 60 to 70 percent once he misses 60 days, Ehalt notes. But if the Mets don’t know how much time Cespedes will sit out in 2020, it could make it that much more difficult for a team that already may be spending above its comfort zone to invest money into weaker areas of the roster. Furthermore, there’s a case that even a healthy Cespedes would be superfluous to New York’s roster. The club’s in fine shape at both corner outfield spots, where it boasts Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo as regulars. Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis and Dominic Smith (who looks like a trade candidate) also played those spots frequently in 2019 and more than held their own offensively.
If there’s one place the Mets could upgrade in the outfield, it’s in center, though Cespedes wouldn’t be able to help there. And if Cespedes’ injuries and age make him a subpar outfield option in general nowadays, there’d be no clear place to put him on a team that has NL Rookie of the Year front-runner Pete Alonso manning first and isn’t part of a league that features a designated hitter.
While the Mets were undoubtedly excited to re-up Cespedes three years ago after he opted out of his previous deal with the club, his presence has been disastrous for a large portion of the contract. Cespedes’ money could help prevent the Mets from improving their roster to the fullest extent possible this offseason as they try to break a three-year playoff drought in 2020.
10 Players Receive Qualifying Offers
It appears that ten players have received qualifying offers this year. Bob Nightengale of USA Today rounds up the full slate of players on Twitter, some of whom were already reported and covered on this site.
This year’s qualifying offer value is $17.8MM for a one-year term. Players issued the offer will have ten days to assess their options. Should a player reject the offer and fail to work out a deal with their existing team, he will enter the market carrying the requirement that a signing team sacrifice draft compensation. (While the former team would not stand to lose a pick, it would not gain a compensatory pick if it re-signs that player.) Click here for a full rundown of the QO rules.
This represents a bounce back up in the number of players to receive a qualifying offer. Last year was a record-low of seven, with other offseasons ranging from nine (2012, 2017) all the way up to twenty offers (2015).
Here are the ten players:
- Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox
- Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants
- Gerrit Cole, SP, Astros
- Josh Donaldson, 3B, Braves
- Jake Odorizzi, SP, Twins
- Marcell Ozuna, OF, Cardinals
- Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals
- Will Smith, RP, Giants
- Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals
- Zack Wheeler, SP, Mets
There are a few notable players that were eligible for the QO but did not receive it. Those players will hit the open market free and clear of draft compensation. Didi Gregorius of the Yankees and Cole Hamels of the Cubs were perhaps the leading possibilities beyond those that received the offer. J.D. Martinez would surely have received one from the Red Sox had he opted out of his deal; Aroldis Chapman was also certain to get a QO had he not agreed to a new contract. Quite a few other prominent free agents were ineligible because they were traded during the 2019 season and/or had previously received a qualifying offer.
Mets Select Blake Taylor, Claim Stephen Gonsalves
The Mets have announced the addition of two left-handed hurlers to their 40-man roster. Blake Taylor‘s contract was selected from Triple-A while the club claimed Stephen Gonsalves off waivers from the Twins.
Taylor, 24, has been a member of the Mets organization for more than a decade. The 2013 second-round pick of the Pirates joined New York in the teams’ 2014 swap centering on Ike Davis. Taylor was a somewhat highly touted prospect during his draft class, of course, though he hasn’t climbed above the Triple-A level yet. He did dominate in Double-A ball this year, though, as the left-hander posted a 1.85 ERA/2.61 FIP with 10.38 K/9, 2.77 BB/9 and a 50.5 percent groundball rate in 39 innings.
It hasn’t been long since Gonsalves, 25, was a top 100 prospect, and now the southpaw’s days with the Twins are over after a lengthy run as a member of the organization. Gonsalves had been with Minnesota since it grabbed him in the fourth round of the 2013 draft. However, control problems have haunted Gonsalves in recent years, especially during his only taste of the majors in 2018, and he barely pitched at all this season. Elbow and forearm problems limited Gonsalves to a total of 13 innings among three different minor league levels in 2019, but the Mets will nonetheless take a chance on the once-promising hurler.
Van Wagenen: Mets Will Make Qualifying Offer To Zack Wheeler
The Mets will extend a one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer to right-hander Zack Wheeler before today’s 5pm ET deadline, general manager Brodie Van Wagenen announced at today’s press conference to introduce new manager Carlos Beltran (h/t: Joel Sherman of the New York Post, on Twitter).
That’s been the expected outcome for several months now, and Wheeler is widely expected to reject the offer in search of a more lucrative deal in free agency. If and when Wheeler does sign a new contract elsewhere, the Mets will be entitled to a compensatory pick in the 2020 draft.
Wheeler, 29, should have little trouble trouncing that $17.8MM, one-year offer in free agency. The market features a pair of clear-cut No. 1 starters in Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, but Wheeler is very arguably the No. 3 free-agent arm of the winter and will likely be treated as such by several teams. As laid out recently by MLBTR’s Connor Byrne, Wheeler is the second-hardest-throwing starter on the market (trailing only Cole), and no free-agent starter limited hard contact better than Wheeler in 2019. He also ranks in the top 10 among free agents in terms of highest strikeout percentage and lowest walk percentage.
While some may point to Wheeler’s 3.96 ERA in 2019 and zero in too heavily on that figure, his overall body of work over the past two seasons is largely excellent. In his past 55 Major League starts, Wheeler has pitched to a collective 3.47 ERA (3.27 FIP) with 9.0 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9 and a 43.1 percent ground-ball rate. He’s done so while playing in front of a porous defense that ranks 29th among MLB teams with a ghastly -169 Defensive Runs Saved across the past two seasons.
Qualifying offer notwithstanding, it’d be a surprise to see Wheeler command anything less than a strong three-year deal, and even that’s a rather cautious and conservative outlook. The demand for pitching among contenders will be strong, and Wheeler is trending up at a time when the trade market offers virtually nothing in terms of top-tier arms. For clubs looking to add a starter with front-of-the-rotation upside but unwilling to approach the $30MM+ annual salaries that Cole and Strasburg will likely command, Wheeler and lefty Madison Bumgarner are the next-best options.
Latest On Mets’ Coaching Staff
While their division rivals in Washington D.C. wrap up a 2019 World Series parade, the Mets are dealing with a few open questions in regard to the 2020 coaching staff of Carlos Beltran. The newly minted manager is expected to have input in the reshaping of the staff, and former Met skipper Terry Collins has “been discussed” for the team’s bench coach role, according to a piece from Mike Puma of the New York Post (link).
Collins and Beltran spoke before one of the latter’s managerial interviews this postseason, with the two maintaining a “tight” relationship after overlapping in the New York dugout back in 2011, according to Anthony Dicomo of MLB.com (link); DiComo emphasizes that the team has not yet reached out to Collins about the bench coach post. As the reporter notes, Collins has been under club payroll in recent years as a special assistant.
There may also be change afoot at the hitting coach position. Chili Davis earned “strong reviews” from club officials last season for his work in guiding a young offense, but the veteran coach is searching for a multi-year deal after his contract expired on Friday, according to Puma.
Along the baselines, Gary DiSarcina is characterized in Puma’s piece as “likely” to return, although it is uncertain if it will be in the third base coach role he held last year. First base coach Glenn Sherlock was given permission last month to seek other jobs and is not likely to be a member of Beltran’s staff next year.
NL Notes: Rockies, Marlins, Mets
The Rockies pitching staff collapsed in 2019, and it led to a myriad of attempted fixes, per The Athletic’s Nick Groke. So far, however, the Rockies remain at a loss. There is concern about the state of the baseball and how it reacts in Colorado’s altitude, but scouts around baseball also point to a habit of “careless deliveries” among Colorado hurlers as a cause for concern. Bud Black and his team are hard at work trying to diagnose the issue(s), and without payroll flexibility over the winter, identifying internal solutions might be their best chance at improvement in 2020. Still, it’s a dispiriting read for Colorado’s fans, as the Groke writes that the Rockies went so far as to “shut down their top starter, 24-year-old German Márquez, in late August, in part to save him from the bombardment.” They’ll have a clean slate in 2020, but a long road ahead as the Dodgers remain a juggernaut, while the Diamondbacks and Padres are rising contenders. Let’s check in elsewhere around the NL…
- The Marlins feel much differently about the future of their pitching staff. This season definitely opened some eyes to the burgeoning talent in Miami’s rotation, but the best may be yet to come. Miami management believes they have a dozen or more identifiable arms in their system with big-league rotation potential, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. Jose Urena has been the big name of the rotation in year’s past, but his future is uncertain with Caleb Smith, Sandy Alcantara, Jordan Yamamoto, Pablo Lopez, and Elieser Hernandez all competing for regular roles next year.
- Managing the Mets is not the easiest job in baseball, but in tabbing Carlos Beltran for the role, New York found someone who knows what to expect and is ready to handle the unique challenge of managing in Queens, per The Athletic’s Tim Britton. Beltran is a long-respected clubhouse leader, and though he’ll be new to the managing role, he is no stranger to the New York spotlight. Ownership rarely takes a backseat for the Mets, but Beltran’s existing relationships will help him in that department as well. The biggest obstacle to a successful tenure for Beltran remains in Atlanta, DC, and Philadelphia.