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Yankees Have Discussed Extensions With Aaron Hicks, Dellin Betances

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Center fielder Aaron Hicks and reliever Dellin Betances represent a pair of the Yankees’ best soon-to-be free agents, but it’s possible the team will prevent them from reaching the open market next winter. The club has “broached” contract extensions with Hicks and Betances, James Wagner of the New York Times reports. It’s unclear whether the Yankees have made headway in talks with either player, however.

After joining the Yankees in a November 2015 trade with the Twins, Hicks endured a 2016 to forget in his first season in the Bronx. He has since blossomed into one of the majors’ most valuable center fielders, though, as he combined for 8.2 fWAR and in 225 games and 942 plate appearances from 2017-18. Hicks derived most of his value last season from his bat, with which he produced a potent .248/.366/.467 line. Along the way, the switch-hitting Hicks managed career highs in home runs (27), wRC+ (127) and isolated power (.219), also posting an excellent walk rate (15.5 percent, compared to an above-average strikeout percentage of 19.1), stealing 11 bases on 13 tries and earning elite overall baserunning marks from FanGraphs. Defensive Runs Saved (minus-3) and Ultimate Zone Rating (0.7) weren’t enamored of Hicks’ work in center, especially compared to his output in 2017 (15 DRS, 7.0 UZR), but he was still worth a lofty 4.9 fWAR on the season.

Now, as he enters his age-29 season, Hicks is open to an extension to remain in New York.

“It’s an amazing place with a great future and of course it’s something I’d like to be a part of,” Hicks told Wagner, and he suggested earlier in the week (via Randy Miller of NJ.com) that the contract A.J. Pollock signed with the Dodgers in free agency this offseason could be a starting point in negotiations.

“Of course,” Hicks said of Pollock’s four-year, $60MM guarantee. “When center fielders get contracts, of course I’m going to get excited about that. He’s a good player and he’s going to a good team.”

Hicks was the better, more durable player than Pollock over the previous two seasons, and the former’s also two years younger than the latter. Hicks’ reps at CAA Sports are sure to emphasize those points in their discussions with the Yankees, and as we noted earlier in the offseason, they could perhaps try to push their client closer to the $80MM-plus guarantees center fielders Dexter Fowler and Lorenzo Cain signed during the 2016 and ’17 offseasons, respectively. For now, Hicks is slated to make a more-than-reasonable $6MM salary in 2019 after avoiding arbitration with the Yankees last month.

Betances, like Hicks, avoided arbitration in January, agreeing to a $7.125MM sum. It’s the second straight year in which the two sides found common ground and forewent arbitration, which is notable given the battle between Betances and the Yankees in February 2017. Back then, the sides engaged in a contentious arbitration hearing which culminated in a win for the Yankees and a public spat between Betances’ camp and team president Randy Levine. Betances hinted then that he was looking forward to free agency, but it’s unknown whether the New York City native has changed his stance since then.

What is clear is that Betances has been a world-class setup man dating back to his 2014 debut. Over his first half-decade in the majors, the towering right-hander led all relievers in fWAR (11.6) and innings pitched (373 1/3), and he also ranked toward the top of the sport in ERA (2.22), FIP (2.26) and K/9 (14.63, compared to 3.91 BB/9). Betances is now coming off a year in which he continued to pump high-90s heat while logging a strong 2.70 ERA/2.47 FIP across 66 2/3 frames, over which he registered a ridiculous 15.53 strikeouts per nine (trailing only teammate Aroldis Chapman and the Brewers’ Josh Hader in that regard) against a manageable 3.51 BB/9.

All of Betances’ numbers suggest the Excel Sports Management client is on track to land a sizable deal sometime before the 2020 season, whether from the Yankees or another team. While youth isn’t necessarily on Betances’ side – he’ll turn 31 next month – similarly aged, arguably less desirable relievers such as teammate Zack Britton (three years, $39MM) and the Rockies’ Wade Davis (three years, $52MM) have scored big deals in free agency dating back to December 2017. Betances could also be keeping an eye on free agent Craig Kimbrel, who’s had a difficult time on the market over the past few months but still figures to rake in a lucrative contract before the upcoming campaign.

While the Yankees are clearly interested in keeping Hicks and Betances in the fold for the foreseeable future, they aren’t the championship hopefuls’ only notable pending free agents. Injured shortstop Didi Gregorius, outfielder Brett Gardner and backup catcher Austin Romine are also scheduled to reach the market after the season. It’s unknown if the Yankees have discussed new contracts with any of them, however.

Phillies In Lead For Bryce Harper

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7:00PM: Harper’s market is still “evolving,” as Heyman puts it in his latest tweet.  The Phillies are still seen as the likeliest team to land Harper, though the outfielder has received several long-term deals with an average annual value of more than $30MM per season.

6:01PM: There is no deal yet, though according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link), Harper “will ultimately receive” a larger contract than the ten-year, $300MM offer he received from the Nationals before free agency began.

1:15PM: As was the case a month ago, the Phillies are the favorites to sign free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. But Harper’s market has “intensified,” according to Heyman, who unsurprisingly notes he’ll eventually sign a long-term contract.

Philadelphia met with Harper back on Jan. 10, though he and fellow free-agent superstar/Phillies target Manny Machado have shockingly remained on the market since then. Both the Giants and Padres have since joined the race for Harper, who, as of two weeks ago, had drawn interest from “at least” eight teams, Heyman reported. Only five suitors have been identified, though, with Harper’s career-long club – the Nationals – accompanying the Phillies, Giants, Padres and White Sox. The Yankees and Mets are two teams that can be ruled out, Andy Martino of SNY tweets.

Harper entered the offseason seeking a contract worth upward of $300MM – a figure that he could still match or exceed, despite his unexpectedly long stay on the market. And the Phillies are arguably in better position than anyone else to bid an extravagant amount for Harper, as they came into the winter expecting to spend “stupid” money, according to owner John Middleton. The big-market team has been aggressive in improving its roster to this point, having added J.T. Realmuto, Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen and David Robertson, but it’s not spending an eyebrow-raising sum on any of those players. Plus, despite those upgrades, the Phillies still aren’t in great shape in the outfield, with Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams, Roman Quinn and Aaron Altherr serving as their best options besides McCutchen. The 26-year-old Harper blows that group out of the water, needless to say, and his presence would significantly boost the Phillies’ chances of breaking their seven-season playoff drought in 2019.

Should Harper head to Philly, it would remove a prime suitor for Machado, as the club’s only willing to sign one of the two. Without the Phillies in the mix, Machado would seemingly be left to choose between the Padres and White Sox, who have courted him, though it’s possible a previous suitor such as the Yankees or a mystery team could involve themselves in the race to sign him.

Brian Cashman On Severino Deal, Other Potential Extensions

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The Yankees signed right-hander Luis Severino to a four-year, $40MM extension shortly before they were scheduled to face off against him in arbitration Friday. General manager Brian Cashman spoke about the buzzer-beating agreement Saturday, saying (via George A. King III of the New York Post): “We circled back 30 minutes before the hearing and I asked [agent Nelson Montes de Oca] if he wanted to circle back to my room again. The atmosphere was better, different. We both said we would rather not walk into this hearing and do what we have to do. We gave a little, they gave a little. The Severino extension may not be the last one the Yankees dole out before the season, as Cashman revealed that the club has “had conversations with some” unidentified players regarding new deals. Speculatively, center fielder Aaron Hicks, shortstop Didi Gregorius and reliever Dellin Betances – integral Yankees slated to reach free agency next winter – look like logical candidates.

Yankees Extend Luis Severino

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4:48pm: The Yankees have now announced the agreement.

11:00am Severino’s fifth-year option is worth $15MM and comes with a $2.75MM buyout, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan. He’ll earn a $2MM signing bonus, a $4MM salary in 2019, $10MM in 2020, $10.25MM in 2021 and $11MM in 2022. In all, Severino can earn up to $52.25MM if the option is exercised.

As has been the case with numerous recent extensions — Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Whit Merrifield — Severino’s deal is more front-loaded than conventional extensions. That’s been agreed upon in some cases as a means of protection against a potential work stoppage upon completion of the current CBA in 2021.

10:41am: The Yankees and right-hander Luis Severino have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a multi-year contract, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter links). The new contract is pending a physical. Severino, a client of Rep 1 Baseball, will be guaranteed $40MM over a four-year contract that contains a club option for a fifth season.

Luis Severino |Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The first major payday comes as an early birthday present for Severino, who’ll turn 25 next Wednesday. It’s a well-earned contract for the Dominican-born righty, who to this point in his career has turned in a 3.51 ERA in 518 innings of work. Over the past two seasons, Severino has been both excellent and consistent, compiling a combined 3.18 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.94 HR/9 and a 46 percent ground-ball rate in 384 2/3 innings of work. Though he’s yet to find success in the postseason spotlight, the Yankees’ strong core should afford Severino ample opportunities to do so over the life of this contract.

Severino had been arbitration-eligible for the first time as a Super Two player, meaning he was already controlled for those four seasons. However, the new contract arrangement affords the team with control over what would have been the right-hander’s first season of free agency.

Severino’s camp filed for a $5.25MM salary against the Yankees’ submission of $4.4MM (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker), so this contract promises him what would be at least an additional $35.6MM for his three subsequent arbitration seasons (or an additional $34.75MM in the scenario where he had won that case). Heading into arbitration, Severino and righty Aaron Nola were viewed as similar cases, and the similarity between the pair of extensions they signed this week — Nola inked a four-year, $45MM pact on Wednesday — further speak to the comparable nature of their cases.

The most notable difference between the pair of right-handers, though, was that Nola had already surpassed three year of service, while Severino was a Super Two. So while the Phillies gained control over an additional two seasons of Nola (in exchange for an additional $5MM in guarantees), the Yankees are buying out just one free-agent year. Severino will now hit the open market in advance of his age-30 season.

As was the case with the Nola deal, there’s some risk baked into this new pact for Severino. While one can hardly fault him from wanting to secure a first life-altering contract, Severino is also forgoing the opportunity to reach free agency heading into his age-29 campaign — an age at which Patrick Corbin received a six-year, $140MM contract. Granted, he’s only pushing the free-agent clock back by one season, but teams have shown an increased reluctance to pay a premium as players enter their early and mid-30s. It’s also quite possible that with at least $4.4MM (and potentially as much as $5.25MM) already banked, Severino could’ve handily topped $40MM in total earnings over the course of his four arbitration seasons.

Of course, those risks apply to virtually any early-career extension, and Severino’s new arrangement provides him with a nice safety net in the event that he incurs a serious injury or unexpected decline — either of which could radically alter his earning capacity in a scenario where he’d opted to go year-to-year through the arbitration process.

Looking at historical precedent, the contract, like Nola’s, is somewhat of a half measure. Severino isn’t fully betting on himself, surrendering his earliest opportunity at free agency in exchange for an immediate payday, but his camp also opted not to go for broke in terms of establishing a new precedent for Super Two starting pitcher extensions.

As shown in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker, Gio Gonzalez’s now seven-year-old extension with the Nationals (five years, $42MM and two club options) still stands out as the largest contract ever signed by a pitcher with between two and three years of service time. Severino did top Corey Kluber’s $38.5MM deal with the Indians by a slight margin, but Kluber wasn’t Super Two eligible and was four years older at that point than Severino is now. Of course, both Gonzalez and Kluber agreed to five-year guarantees with multiple club options as part of those contracts, whereas Severino only surrendered five years of control in total. With that in mind, it’s likely that the Yankees would have wanted (at least) an additional year of control over Severino in order to firmly set a new precedent — something to which Severino’s camp may simply not have been amenable.

Historical context aside, Severino’s contract will push the Yankees’ 2019 payroll to just north of $202MM and come with a $10MM hit on their luxury tax payroll, which is calculated by contracts’ average annual value as opposed to their year-to-year salaries. The Severino extension, then, brings New York’s 2019 luxury tax ledger to a bit more than $222MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, which checks in about $16MM north of the $206MM luxury threshold. Looking beyond the current season, the Yankees now have nearly $146MM committed to the 2020 payroll and more than $161MM on their 2020 luxury ledger.

Yankees, Severino Appear Headed For Hearing

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  • In other AL East contractual matters, the Yankees’ reported chatter about a long-term deal with staff ace Luis Severino does not seem to be gaining traction, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). It seems that the sides will instead focus on preparing for an upcoming arbitration hearing, though that can always change at the last minute — whether due to agreement on a single-season salary or something more significant. If the case goes to a panel, the arbitrators will need to decide between Severino’s proposed $5.25MM payout and the club’s $4.4MM counter. There’s added significance given that the Super Two qualifier still has three more potential arb years to come, making his starting salary quite important.

Ellsbury Dealing With Plantar Fasciitis; King Has Stress Reaction In Elbow

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The injury news didn’t stop there for the Yanks, either, as right-handed pitching prospect Mike King has been shut down for the next three weeks after an MRI revealed a stress reaction in his right elbow. He’ll be re-evaluated after that three-week down period. The 23-year-old King posted a ridiculous 1.79 ERA with 8.5 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9 in 161 1/3 innings across three levels last season, topping out with a brilliant six-start run in Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman announced to the media Wednesday that outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury won’t be reporting to camp until next month, as he’s currently being slowed by a case of plantar fasciitis (link via Dan Martin of the New York Post). It’s not yet clear whether Ellsbury will be ready for Opening Day, nor is it clear how much playing time would be available to Ellsbury considering a Yankees outfield mix that features Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner and Giancarlo Stanton (with Clint Frazier also looming in the minors). Ellsbury seems poised for a bench role after missing the entire 2018 season due to injury (most notably including hip surgery).

Yankees Have Discussed Extension With Luis Severino

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The Yankees have held at least some extension talks with young righty Luis Severino, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Whether a deal is likely, though, is not yet clear.

For the time being, Severino remains scheduled to participate in an arbitration hearing to determine his salary for the 2019 season. He filed at $5.25MM, with the team countering at $4.4MM. It’s not an especially high-stakes hearing, then, though setting a high mark in his Super Two year would set up Severino for greater future earnings.

It’s a different situation, then, from that which faced Aaron Nola and the Phillies before they hammered out a long-term deal today. In that case, a hefty $2.2MM spread in arb positions left significant risk on both sides. They ultimately settled for a four-year, $45MM deal that gives the team one option year.

Interestingly, the Yanks’ filing number on Severino sits just below the figure the Phillies would have defended ($4.5MM) on Nola, despite the fact that the Philadelphia hurler has a much more compelling statistical case and was in the 3+ service class. It seems the Yanks and Severino are closer to the same page as a starting point, not that it necessarily spells a greater likelihood for a long-term deal.

The Nola contract does not necessarily bear directly on Severino’s case, given the service differences, but it does represent a notable market marker. Certainly, that new deal does not break significant new ground. It’d be curious, at least, to see Severino secure a stronger deal than Nola with one season longer to go before he’s a free agent, though it’s entirely unclear what terms are being discussed at present. Gio Gonzalez (five years, $42MM, two options) still holds the high-water mark for a Super Two starter.

Latest On Yankees Infield Situation

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The Yankees still aren’t pushing the market for Manny Machado, and probably never will, but also shouldn’t be counted out. That’s the word from Andy Martino of SNY.tv, who reports that the New York org is still keeping tabs on Machado in hopes that a golden opportunity will emerge. The Yanks aren’t interested in utilizing him at short, but would instead plan to put Machado at third while pushing Miguel Andujar across the diamond in the even of a signing. Of course, Martino cautions that it still seems unlikely that anything will come together.

  • It’s interesting that the Yankees evidently wouldn’t see Machado as a factor at shortstop. That lends greater credence to the idea that the team really is committed not only to allowing Troy Tulowitzki to take the job there to open the season, but also to paying a big arbitration salary to Didi Gregorius in hopes that he’ll return in relatively short order (and in good form) from Tommy John surgery. As Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reports, Gregorius has now begun his throwing program. There’s still a long road ahead, but he seems to be on track to make his anticipated summer return.

Yankees Linked To Major 2019-20 Int'l Prosect

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  • Ten of the top names available in the 2019-20 international signing market are profiled by Baseball America’s Ben Badler, all of whom have teams already unofficially attached to their services even though the market doesn’t properly open until July 2.  Dominican outfielder Jasson Dominguez and Dominican shortstop Robert Puason are projected for the highest bonuses, each expected to land something around $5MM, with Dominguez linked to the Yankees and Puason connected to the Athletics.

Hal Steinbrenner Defends Yankees' Spending

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After the Yankees worked to get under the luxury tax limit last offseason, many New York fans expected a classic Bronx Bombers spending spree this winter, particularly with Bryce Harper and Manny Machado in the free agent market.  While that type of splurge hasn’t happened, Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner rejected criticism that his team hasn’t been willing to spend.  “I mean, we’re well above $200 million [in payroll] — we’re at $220 [million] right now — and we’re well above where we were last year,” Steinbrenner told ESPN News Services and other outlets.  (Roster Resource projects the Yankees’ at a little under $203MM in dollars, though at just over $217MM in terms of luxury tax value.)

“I think we’ve definitely got a better club Opening Day than we did opening day last year, particularly in pitching, which is my biggest area of concern,” Steinbrenner said.  In regards to the argument that the Yankees’ enormous revenues should necessitate a league-high payroll, Steinbrenner also pointed to the team’s high costs, as well as future money that is being earmarked to retain members of its young core.  That said, Steinbrenner also didn’t rule out the possibility of more notable additions: “I’m never done until I’m done, and that’s usually not until Opening Day.  Proposals come to me every day with these guys, between the analytics guys and the pro scouting guys, and I’m going to consider every single one of them.”

  • Under GM Mike Elias, the revamped Orioles’ front office has taken a big step towards modern statistical analysis, though some seeds towards this direction were planted last summer before Elias was hired.  As Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun notes, several young pitchers acquired by the O’s last summer were obtained from teams (such as the Dodgers, Braves, and Yankees) that have already embraced analytics, leaving the prospects already well-versed in modern data and eager to learn more.  “I’m big into the new analytics and stuff like that, so I like to see the data that I produce, I guess, with how my pitches play off each other,” said right-hander Dean Kremer, one of the youngsters Baltimore acquired from Los Angeles in the Manny Machado trade in July.
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