- The Yankees’ Gary Sanchez is also coming off surgery, having undergone an offseason procedure on his left (non-throwing) shoulder. Sanchez is now “healthy,” per general manager Brian Cashman (via George A. King III of the New York Post), but the Yanks will mimic the Giants in being cautious with their prized backstop this spring. The 26-year-old Sanchez joined Posey among the majors’ elite catchers from 2017-18, though the former’s now looking to bounce back from a shockingly rough season. Sanchez bombed at the plate, hitting .186/.291/.406 (89 wRC+) in 374 trips, and also drew the ire of fans and media for leading the American League in passed balls (18).
Yankees Rumors
Fallout From The J.T. Realmuto Trade
Following a merciful coda to the offseason’s most protracted soap opera – a fine Philly offer, agreed upon Thursday, that finally plucked former Marlin catcher J.T. Realmuto from the clutches of South Beach – each of the oft-snubbed clubs offered their final say.
We’ll start in Atlanta, in whose court the Realmuto ball seemed to linger longest – indeed, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network, the team needed only to surrender two from the group of Austin Riley, Cristian Pache, and one top pitching prospect (of which Atlanta has several: each of Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson, Touki Toussaint, Bryse Wilson, Kyle Wright, and Joey Wentz are top 100 prospects in at least one major outlet). Ozzie Albies, said to be an essential part of any Realmuto deal with Atlanta, was never a demanded centerpiece, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Though certainly a substantial return, it’s a package that can’t be said, by any reasonable analysis, to be one that would have stripped the farm of the suddenly-conservative Braves to the bone.
The ask of the Dodgers, ever-cautious themselves, was two from a group of Dustin May, Keibert Ruiz, Gavin Lux, and Will Smith, per Heyman, in the same tweet. Ruiz and Smith, both catchers, likely won’t ever be on the field together at Chavez Ravine, and some outlets ranked neither May nor Lux inside the top 100. Both Heyman and Rosenthal concede that Cody Bellinger was the prize on which Miami initially laid its eyes, but it appears the team quickly swiveled to less-established names in the weeks to follow.
Rosenthal confirms earlier reports that the Fish first coveted outfielder Michael Conforto or Amed Rosario from the Mets, and adds that the team also needed a “top shortstop prospect,” presumably Andres Gimenez, to be added to the deal. It doesn’t appear the club pivoted to other names after the Mets balked, likely owing to the thinned-out version of the late-offseason Mets farm.
From the Yankees, the club did seek Gary Sanchez and Miguel Andujar, per Rosenthal, but only part of a “larger deal” that would obviously have included additional pieces. The Bombers were understandably reluctant to trade either, and the wheat of the Yankee farm – stocked mostly with high-upside, low-level types – wouldn’t have been enough to secure Realmuto’s services. The reported three-team with the Mets that would have sent Noah Syndergaard to New York was bandied about, but a copacetic swap was “never close.”
Cincinnati was both late to the fore and hesitant to move any of its top three prospects, per Rosenthal, and it doesn’t appear a deal was close there, either. Perhaps surprisingly, given the intense scrutiny of the talks, both the Twins and White Sox were “in the mix,” though prospective returns and/or offers are still in the dark.
In the end, Miami seems more than content with its return. The Fish regarded Will Stewart, the trade’s third piece, as Philadelphia’s second-best pitching prospect, per Rosenthal, ahead of near-unanimous top-100 hurler Adonis Medina, righty Spencer Howard, who placed 52nd on Keith Law’s list, and lefty JoJo Romero (66th overall, per Law). Sixto Sanchez, of course, has a decent shot to be an ace, and it’s certainly true that the club could reap more value in Jorge Alfaro alone than it would in the next two seasons with Realmuto behind the dish. The oft-pilloried asks, long said to far outstrip the two-year value of the game’s premier offseason trade target, were, in most respects, perfectly reasonable, and may have quickly been met in eras bygone. This, though, is the time for prospect hoarding, an age in which the control is treasured above all else, and those with even the slightest chance to be stars are stashed deep away, brought out only for the most earnest of window shoppers.
Giants Have “Talked About” Pursuing Jacoby Ellsbury Trade
The Giants have at least “talked about” swinging a deal with the Yankees involving outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.com (Twitter links). Details of any negotiations remain unknown, as is the seriousness of the Giants’ interest.
Given Ellsbury’s cost, and the fact that he missed all of the 2018 season, the concept would only conceivably make sense if it involved a big, bad contract going back east. The Giants certainly do have some underperforming deals on the books, including Johnny Cueto ($68MM over three years, including buyout on 2022 option), Jeff Samardzija ($36MM over two years), Brandon Belt ($48MM over three years), Mark Melancon ($28MM over two years), and Evan Longoria ($61.5MM over four years, including buyout on 2023 option and excluding portion owed by the Rays).
Olney speculates that Cueto might make sense as a return piece, so long as the sides could even up the anticipated money somehow. Ellsbury is still owed just over $47MM over the next two seasons, including a buyout in a 2021 option. In theory, Ellsbury would step into the Giants’ barren outfield mix, assuming he’s able to get healthy, while the Yanks would collect insurance proceeds on Cueto until he’s ready to return from Tommy John surgery. (Ellsbury’s contract is also insured to some extent; the Yanks reportedly collected on it last year.)
It’s worth adding that the competitive balance tax hits for both players are quite similar, as both check in just under $22MM. That’s a key consideration for both of these teams, each of which is seemingly attempting to stay beneath the luxury line.
While there’s arguably some outward appeal to the concept — which, to reiterate, was presented only as a hypothetical — it seems like a questionable idea from the Giants’ perspective. Ellsbury was fading hard even before he missed all of 2018. While he was still a useful player, he likely profiles at best as a heavily utilized platoon man at this stage. At 35 years of age, Ellsbury comes with limited upside. Cueto had certainly not been at his best even before going under the knife, but he threw 219 2/3 innings of 2.79 ERA ball in 2016 and is still a few days away from his 33rd birthday. While the Giants might well like to take a shot on Ellsbury as a veteran piece, it seems much likelier that Cueto will end up returning something close to the value of his remaining earnings. With three pending free agents in the current rotation, the Giants will surely have a use for him, too. Perhaps it’s fair to think, then, that the Yanks would have to sweeten such a deal with young talent.
It’s interesting to wonder whether other permutations could instead be pursued. Samardzija might give the Yankees some desired rotation depth and could be an interesting candidate to work in a long relief role. He comes with a lesser tax hit of $18MM, but perhaps the deal could include a veteran reliever and deliver more young talent back to the Giants. There are certainly plenty of ways to sketch out tax-neutral scenarios, though at the end of the day it all depends just how interested the Giants really are in having Ellsbury on their roster — and how motivated the Yankees are to send him out. And the veteran outfielder will also have a say himself, as he enjoys full no-trade protection.
Farquhar On Comeback Effort
- Right-hander Danny Farquhar discussed his remarkable comeback in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link, with audio). Farquhar, who recently inked a minor league contract with the Yankees, was fighting for his life 10 months ago after suffering a brain aneurysm in the White Sox’ dugout. Soon to turn 32, Farquhar acknowledged that he’s lucky to be alive but also put a positive spin on his harrowing medical status, noting that in the time since recovering, he’s been able to dedicate himself solely to training. While this time of year brings about frequent “best shape of his life” stories, Farquhar’s is certainly of more note than most others given a recent near-death experience. While the Yankees’ bullpen will be a tough one to crack, Farquhar can either head to Triple-A as a depth option if he doesn’t make the roster or, potentially, attract the interest of another team with a strong spring showing for the Yankees.
Poll: Projecting Luke Voit’s 2019
Among major leaguers who finished with at least 150 plate appearances in 2018, future Hall of Famer Mike Trout unsurprisingly led the way in wRC+ (191). But who finished second? Was it AL MVP Mookie Betts, NL MVP Christian Yelich or another big-name superstar? No, it was Luke Voit, who put up a 187 wRC+ in 161 PAs divided between the Cardinals and Yankees. Voit took a mere 13 trips to the plate until late July, when New York acquired him from St. Louis for a pair of relievers, and then proceeded to give the first baseman-needy Yankees an answer at the position over the final couple months of the season.
During his first 148 PAs as a Yankee, the burly, boisterous Voit batted a video game-like .322/.398/.671 with a Ruthian ISO (.350) and 15 home runs. And Statcast backed up Voit’s production, ranking the soon-to-be 28-year-old first in barrels per plate appearance and expected weighted on-base average (.437) among those who racked up at least 150 PAs on the season. While Voit benefited from a .365 batting average on balls in play, a number he may not approach again, the Yankees are understandably optimistic he’s good enough to serve as their No. 1 option at first going forward.
This has been an active offseason in the infield for New York, which has signed DJ LeMahieu and Troy Tulowitzki while showing interest in Manny Machado, but the team has been quiet at first base. Despite Voit’s limited track record, the right-handed slugger’s incredible showing toward the end of 2018 has made him the odds-on favorite to start at first in 2019 for the Yankees, whose previous long-term hope, the lefty-swinging Greg Bird, has fallen short of expectations because of a spate of injuries and less-than-stellar overall production. The Yankees have been bullish on Bird, but he missed all of 2016 because of a shoulder injury, and then produced very little from 2017-18 while dealing with foot problems. His horrific 2018 campaign made it necessary for the World Series-contending Yankees to address first, where they ultimately chose to turn to Voit over the summer.
While it’s still too soon to give up on the 26-year-old Bird, he may not receive regular playing time with the Yankees again unless Voit falls flat. Although Bird was a much better prospect than Voit during their younger days, there’s no doubt the latter has been the superior major leaguer to this point. Consequently, as the Yankees prepare for a championship push, they’ll continue with Voit at first, undoubtedly hoping last season wasn’t a mirage and they’ve acquired a star-caliber hitter for next to nothing.
The Steamer projection system doesn’t expect the 2019 version of Voit to serve as an offensive force, though, as it predicts he’ll wind up with an above-average but hardly world-beating .262/.335/.458 line. That would make for a .793 OPS, far better than what Yankees first basemen managed from 2016-18 but also much less impressive than the production Voit offered during his abbreviated showing last season. Now that he’s the Yankees’ preferred choice at first, how do you expect Voit to perform in 2019?
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Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Yankees Looking For Rotation Depth
- The Yankees still want to boost their rotation depth, Heyman says, though it’s a bit unclear as of yet how they’ll go about doing so. He lists Gio Gonzalez and Ervin Santana as at-least-hypothetical targets, but it stands to reason that both will want to sign somewhere that they’ll be promised a rotation spot. Gonzalez is one of the best remaining starters and should have little trouble finding at least a clear rotation placement, if not a multi-year deal. Santana does seem to be an interesting bounceback candidate, but he’ll surely be seeking a chance to take the ball every fifth day, which the Yanks can’t promise.
Recovery Notes: Pineda, Nelson, Dubon, Seager, Zimmer
Michael Pineda has yet to throw a pitch for the Twins, but he’s healthy now and ready to make his Twins debut in 2019, per Betsy Helfand of the Twin Cities Pioneer Press. The Twins signed Pineda to a two-year, $10MM guarantee last December as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery, hoping he might be ready for the latter half of the season. Just when it looked like Pineda was ready to return, he was diagnosed with a torn meniscus in his knee, ending his season before it began. Injuries have been a constant for Pineda’s career, though he did put together back-to-back healthy campaigns for the Yankees in 2015 and 2016. His overall 4.05 ERA is boosted by a particularly strong rookie campaign, but across 680 innings in Seattle and New York, he did turn in 9.1 K/9 to 2.1 BB/9. The Twins are perhaps the most wait-and-see team in the league, with many volatile assets equally capable of All-Star seasons and bottoming out (Pineda, Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Jonathan Schoop, among others). With no guaranteed money on the books for 2020, recent speculation has Minnesota as a sleeper team for either Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, but Thad Levine threw some water on that idea, as he believes significant acquisitions of that variety are more appropriate for frontrunners atop a division, rather than a young team on the rise, per MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (via Twitter). Certainly an interesting take from the Minnesota GM. Now, some more recovery news from around the league…
- The Brewers will return an intriguing arm to their rotation this spring, as Jimmy Nelson is healthy and ready to go, per Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (via Twitter). Nelson will have no restrictions heading into Spring Training, and he’s not backing down from high expectations either, making clear his goal to get the nod on Opening Day – unlikely as that may be. Nelson put together an impressive campaign in 2017 that launched him to the top of the Milwaukee rotation, but it’s probably best to temper expectations after a torn labrum took his 2018. For Milwaukee, the tide is turning on what was seen as a rickety rotation leading up to the playoffs, as their starting staff now looks to be a source of potential strength. Jhoulys Chacin made himself irreplaceable in their run to the NLCS, and he’s backed by Zach Davies and Chase Anderson, both rebound candidates after subpar seasons. Add Nelson, Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, among others, as contenders to join what now looks like a high-ceiling and deep, if unstable, unit.
- Rosiak also notes (via Twitter) that prospects Keston Hiura and Mauricio Dubon are ready for a big year, rested in the former’s case and healthy after ACL surgery in the latter’s. While both will return to big league camp this spring, they’ve been told they won’t be with the team on Opening Day, per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt (via Twitter). None of this should come as a surprise, as it’s become the norm for top prospects to begin their debut seasons in Triple A, but it’s safe to say Hiura, at least, is hopeful to make an impact at the ML level sometime in 2019. Dubon, for his part, was ripping through Triple A before the surgery, hitting .343/.348/.574 in 27 games with Colorado Springs.
- Corey Seager hasn’t taken batting practice since his injury last May, but he’s long-tossing in preparation for an important spring back in the middle of the Dodgers infield, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. Seager isn’t yet mobilizing for groundballs or throwing across the diamond, but his recovery from Tommy John surgery has gone according to plan thus far and hope remains that he’ll be ready by Opening Day. He’s hitting off a tee, with the next steps being batting practice in the cage before going against live pitching. The Dodgers have the depth to cover for Seager if he’s not ready by Opening Day – with Chris Taylor the most likely stand-in – but he’s obviously a huge part of their team moving forward.
- The Royals fanbase is still waiting for the long-heralded debut of former top draft choice Kyle Zimmer, but it seems nearly time after he signed a major league contract this winter, per the Kansas City Star’ s Lynn Worthy. Zimmer was the 5th overall pick of the 2012 draft, but he missed the entirety of 2018 while training at the Driveline Baseball pitching program. Even so, he was clocked in the mid-90s this fall, and the Royals weren’t alone in competing for Zimmer’s services, hence the major league contract. Said GM Dayton Moore of the deal, “I would rather have him fail with us than go somewhere else and succeed.” While that’s not exactly a rousing sentiment, and it could be read as vindictive, that does not appear to be Moore’s intent, who praised Zimmer for his mindset and toughness. For Zimmer’s part, he spoke glowingly of the Royals longstanding support and loyalty in his continued journey to toe a major league rubber. If he can stay healthy, there’s opportunity enough for Zimmer to make his debut at Kauffman Stadium sometime in 2019, and despite Moore’s omission of Zimmer’s potential success with the Royals as one of his potential futures, that’s surely the goal for both parties.
Yankees Sign Adam Ottavino
Jan. 24: The Yankees have formally announced the signing. Ottavino will be paid $8MM annually, tweets Heyman, and he’ll receive a deferred $3MM signing bonus.
Jan. 17, 12:47pm: Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that Ottavino will be guaranteed $27MM over the three-year term.
12:42pm :The Yankees have agreed to terms on a contract with free-agent reliever Adam Ottavino, ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets. Robert Murray and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic had reported seconds prior that the two sides were closing in on an arrangement believed to be worth roughly $25MM over three years (Twitter link). Ottavino is represented by All Bases Covered Sports Management.
Ottavino, a New York native who went to high school in Brooklyn, has been connected to the Yankees since before the offseason even began. His addition comes on the heels of a breakout 2018 season with the Rockies in which the 33-year-old righty pitched to a 2.43 ERA with 13.0 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 0.58 HR/9 and a 43 percent ground-ball rate in 77 2/3 innings of relief.
Ottavino joins an already loaded New York relief corps that features Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Chad Green and fellow offseason signee Zach Britton. That group is impressive on its own, before even considering 25-year-old righty Jonathan Holder, who may not yet be a household name but has nevertheless emerged as a quality reliever in his own right. Certainly, no bullpen is ever a sure thing to produce, given the year-over-year volatility of relief pitchers, but in terms of sheer talent and upside, there’s arguably no better collection of bullpen arms in baseball right now.
It should be noted that while Ottavino had a career year in 2018, the two prior seasons garnered more mixed results. Ottavino underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2015 and missed the majority of that season as well as a notable chunk of the 2016 campaign. When he returned in July 2016, he was nothing short of excellent, pitching to a 2.67 ERA with a 35-to-7 K/BB ratio and a preposterous 61.9 percent grounder rate in 27 innings.
The 2017 season, however, was brutal for Ottavino, as he averaged 6.6 walks and 1.35 homers per nine innings pitched en route to a 5.06 ERA. Coming off that campaign, few would’ve believed that the righty would put himself in position to score this type of three-year deal on the open market, but his remarkable bounceback effort was an eye-opener. Ottavino’s 12.1 percent swinging-strike rate isn’t commensurate with the whiff rate you’d expect for someone averaging 13 punchouts per nine innings, and his 26.1 percent opponents’ chase rate on out-of-zone pitches is well below the league average for a reliever. Nonetheless, today’s agreement serves as evidence that the Yankees are convinced of his ability to at least approach his 2018 output as he enters his mid-30s.
In effect, Ottavino will be replacing right-hander David Robertson, who signed with the Phillies on a two-year deal worth a guaranteed $23MM a couple of weeks back. Britton, the team’s other marquee addition, had already finished out the season in manager Aaron Boone’s bullpen following a deadline trade with the Orioles. In that sense, then, one could argue that the bullpen hasn’t definitively improved. Of course, improving on a relief corps that posted the game’s fourth-best ERA (3.38) and the game’s highest strikeout percentage (30.2 percent) is no small feat. At the very least, swapping out Robertson for Ottavino will ensure that the Yankees’ bullpen should maintain its already elite status, even if one or two of the team’s top relievers take a step back in ’19.
The recent additions of Ottavino and DJ LeMahieu, former Rockies teammates now reunited in the Bronx, have added $21MM worth of luxury tax hits to the Yankees’ ledger. That should put them firmly above the $206MM cutoff even if they’re successfully able to find a taker for Sonny Gray and his $7.5MM salary. As Jason Martinez outlines at Roster Resource, the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll currently projects to just north of $224MM, while their actual in-season 2019 payroll — assuming an even $9MM per year breakdown of Ottavino’s deal — currently rests around $209.5MM.
However, the Yankees dipped south of the luxury tax line last season, which reset them back into the lowest penalty bracket. As such, they’ll be faced with a relatively tame penalty — a 12 percent overage tax on every dollar north of the $206MM cutoff point.
The three-year, $27MM value of Ottavino’s contract is likely a bitter pill for the Rockies to swallow, as Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post observes (Twitter link). The Rox handed out a pair of three-year deals worth that exact amount when signing Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee an offseason ago, both of whom struggled through awful seasons in year one of those contracts. That pair of signings, however, combined with the $52MM pact given to Wade Davis, surely restricted the Rockies’ ability to make an earnest effort to re-sign Ottavino this winter.
Generally, though, Ottavino’s contract falls well within range of what was reasonably expected heading into the offseason. We at MLBTR ranked him 21st on our annual ranking of the game’s Top 50 free agents, predicting that he’d secure a three-year, $30MM pact with the Yankees.
Minor MLB Transactions: 1/23/19
We’ll use this post to catch up on some recent minor moves and track any new ones that emerge …
- The Dodgers reportedly have a minors deal in place with veteran backstop Josh Thole. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), the arrangement includes a $600K potential MLB salary as well as an opt-out opportunity on July 1st. Thole has seen time in eight MLB seasons, slashing a cumulative .242/.313/.306 through 1,499 plate appearances, but hasn’t been asked up to the bigs since 2016. He plied his trade last year at Double-A with the Tigers organization.
- Meanwhile, righty David Hale is reportedly headed to the Yankees on his own minor-league accord. The 31-year-old bounced on and off of the New York roster last season (as well as that of the Twins) and will again represent a depth piece for the Yanks. Hale’s chief appeal is his ability to function in a swing capacity, giving innings from the bullpen or if needed taking a spot start. He spent most of 2018 at Triple-A, working to a 4.20 ERA in 55 2/3 innings through 11 starts while compiling 7.1 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9.
- The Nationals have reportedly lined up on an agreement with outfielder Tyler Goeddel, the terms of which remain unknown. He’ll be hoping for an eventual shot to return to the majors after struggling in a 92-game stint with the Phillies back in 2016. Goeddel, 26, hit just .219/.298/.329 last year in the upper minors with the Reds and Dodgers organizations.
- Finally, the Cubs have also reportedly added a player on a minors deal, with infielder Cristhian Adames slated to join the organization. Now 27 years of age, the switch-hitter saw time over four MLB seasons with the Rockies but failed to make it back up last year. In his 498 Triple-A plate appearances with the Marlins org, Adames, put up a .269/.324/.370 batting line. Adames is capable of playing all over the infield and has primarily appeared at shortstop as a professional.
Yankees To Sign Danny Farquhar
The Yankees have agreed to a minor-league deal with right-hander Danny Farquhar, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). He’ll receive an invitation to MLB camp, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand adds on Twitter.
It’s yet another bit of good news for Farquhar, who has been firmly on the upswing since a terrifying medical episode last year. He has made a remarkable recovery from a ruptured brain aneurysm — incurred in the White Sox’ dugout after an appearance in late April — and received clearance in late November to begin working back toward the mound.
Soon to turn 32, Farquhar will assuredly not enter Spring Training as a favorite to crack a loaded Yankees pen. But he could represent an interesting depth option if he’s able to pick up where he left off. Though he has not been terribly effective in recent years, Farquhar was at times a high-quality reliever for the Mariners and Rays and carries a lifetime 12.3% swinging-strike rate in the majors.
