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Dodgers Acquire Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly From White Sox

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The White Sox have already traded Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López to the Angels and are now sending out even more pitching. They are sending righties Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly to the Dodgers, the teams announced. Lynn had a 10-team no-trade clause, with the Dodgers on it, but waived it. The White Sox will receive pitching prospects Nick Nastrini and Jordan Leasure, as well as outfielder Trayce Thompson.

Lynn, 36, has been an effective major league starter for over a decade now, debuting back in 2011. It has been a strange season for him here in 2023, however. Through 21 starts, many of his peripherals are in line with his career marks or even better. He’s striking out 26.9% of opponents on the year, a few ticks north of his 24% career rate. His 8.4% walk rate is only slightly worse than his career 8.2% clip, while this year’s 38.1% ground ball rate is just a bit off his 42.9% career rate.

But despite all of that, he has a 6.47 earned run average, almost three full runs above his 3.71 career mark. This seems to be due to a few factors. For one thing, he’s allowed a .328 batting average on balls in play that’s well beyond the .300 mark he’s allowed in his career and the .295 league average in the majors this year. His 61.6% strand rate this year is well below his career mark of 74.6% and the 71.8% league average this year. Perhaps most importantly, he’s already allowed 28 home runs, more than any other season of his career even though there’s still a couple of months left.

20.6% of the fly balls Lynn has allowed have gone over the fence. That’s a mark that is very unlikely to be maintained going forward. Last year, the qualified pitcher with the highest rate in that department was Germán Márquez of the Rockies, who pitches half his games at Coors Field, at 16.9%. Lynn’s rate of 20.6% this year is the highest in the majors among qualified hurlers, with more than two percentage points separating him from Shohei Ohtani’s 18.4% rate, the second-highest in that department.

Lynn’s hard hit rate is listed at 40.7% this year at Statcast, a slight bump from last year’s 38.7% rate, but it still seems fair to expect some regression towards the mean here. ERA estimators all like him better than his actual ERA, with Lynn having a 5.22 FIP, 4.82 xERA and 3.92 SIERA this year. It seems the Dodgers are banking on the fact that Lynn has actually been closer to his previous career form than a quick glance at his surface-level stats would indicate.

There are some similarities in the case of Kelly, who previously pitched for the Dodgers from 2019 to 2021. In 31 appearances this year, he’s striking out 32% of opponents while walking 9.4% and getting grounders at a 56.2% clip. All three of those figures are better than league average for a reliever, yet he has a 4.97 ERA. It’s possible that his .329 BABIP and 58.7% strand rate are pushing more runs across the board, as he has a 3.25 FIP, 3.23 xERA and 2.97 SIERA.

It seems that plenty of clubs were willing to look past the ERAs of these two pitchers, banking on their previous track records and under-the-hood numbers. In recent days, Lynn has received interest from the Rangers, Rays and Dodgers, while Kelly also received interest from the Rangers and Dodgers.

The White Sox are having a dismal season, currently sporting a record of 41-63 despite coming into the year with competitive aspirations. It was reported a few weeks back that they were willing to consider trade offers on anyone except for controllable core pieces Dylan Cease, Luis Robert Jr. Eloy Jiménez and Andrew Vaughn. Rental pitchers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López were flipped to the Angels earlier this week.

Lynn and Kelly were both also logical trade pieces since they are each in the final seasons of their respective contracts, though both also have 2024 options. Lynn is making $18.5MM this year, with about $6.48MM left to be paid out. His deal also contains an $18MM club option for 2024 with a $1MM buyout. Kelly is making $9MM this year, with about $3.15MM left to be paid, then has a $9.5MM club option with $1MM buyout.

The Dodgers have plenty of need for pitching, having suffered through a litany of injuries this year. Starters Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Dustin May and Ryan Pepiot are on the injured list, with Noah Syndergaard having been there as well until he got traded to the Guardians. That’s forced the club to turn to rookies like Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan and Michael Grove, alongside Julio Urías and Tony Gonsolin. Whenever Lynn reports to the Dodgers, he’ll likely bump one of those rookies back down to Triple-A. Further pitching additions could do the same, as could the return of Kershaw later in the season.

The Dodgers also have relievers Daniel Hudson, Blake Treinen, Alex Reyes, Shelby Miller, J.P. Feyereisen, Tyler Cyr and Jimmy Nelson all on the 60-day IL. Adding an experienced veteran like Kelly will increase the depth for the stretch run. Each of Lynn and Kelly could also be retained for next year if the Dodgers so wish, which will likely depend on how they perform over the next few months.

Turning to the players going to Chicago, the headliner is Nastrini. A fourth-round pick of the Dodgers from 2021, he’s already climbed to Double-A. The 23-year-old has made 17 starts at that level this year with a 4.03 ERA, striking out 26.1% of opponents but with an 11.3% walk rate. Baseball America recently ranked him the #10 prospect in the Dodgers’ system while FanGraphs currently has him at #6.

Leasure, 24, was a 14th-round pick in 2021 and has been working exclusively in relief as a professional. He’s pitched 35 innings out of the bullpen in Double-A this year with a 3.09 ERA, striking out 39.7% of opponents but walking 11.3%.

Thompson, 32, is an immediate big league option for the Sox, or he will be once he returns from the injured list. He was drafted by the White Sox back in 2009 and made his major league debut for them in 2015. He quickly went into journeyman status, bouncing to the Dodgers, back to the White Sox, the Athletics, the Cubs, Padres and back to the Dodgers again, generally struggling in most of those opportunities.

He seemed to finally have his long-awaited breakout last year, with the Dodgers calling him up midseason and putting him into 80 games. He hit .256/.353/.507 in those for a wRC+ of 142 while providing above-average outfield defense, slotting into all three slots on the grass. Unfortunately, he struggled to keep it going into this year, hitting .155/.310/.366 before landing on the IL in early June due to a left oblique strain.

Thompson began a rehab assignment a week ago so should be able to join the White Sox in the near future. He’s making $1.45M this year and can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons after this one. The Sox have a regular outfield mix of Robert, Andrew Benintendi and Oscar Colas, with Jimenez serving as the designated hitter most of the time. Thompson could potentially spell anyone in that group while serving as a reserve outfielder alongside Gavin Sheets.

Despite plenty of injuries, the Dodgers are 58-43 and have a three-game lead in the National League West. They’ve already brought in some complementary pieces like Amed Rosario and Enrique Hernandez, now bolstering their pitching staff with a couple of new additions. The Sox have continued adding young talent as they look to salvage some future value from a disappointing season. With four days until the deadline, both clubs likely still have more moves to make.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today was the first to report that the two sides were deep in talks, with the Dodgers optimistic about getting both Lynn and Kelly. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported an agreement was close. Joel Sherman of The New York Post relayed that Lynn was willing to waive his no-trade clause. Nightengale first had the Lynn part of the deal being done. Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the Dodgers finalizing the deal for both pitchers. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the full trade.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Astros Acquire Kendall Graveman

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Kendall Graveman is back with the Astros. Houston announced they acquired the right-hander in a one-for-one deal that sends young catcher Korey Lee to the White Sox.

It’s the second time in three years that the Astros are swinging a deadline trade to bring Graveman to Houston. The ’Stros acquired Graveman and Rafael Montero from the Mariners prior to the 2021 deadline, sending Abraham Toro and Joe Smith to Seattle in that swap. Graveman shined down the stretch with Houston and parlayed his career-best season in ’21 into a three-year, $24MM deal with the White Sox. He’s currently in the second season of that contract, which pays him $8MM annually. He’s still owed about $2.84MM of that sum through season’s end, plus next year’s $8MM.

Graveman, now 32, is in the midst of a solid second campaign in Chicago. He’s sitting on a 3.48 ERA through 44 innings with eight saves and eight holds, regularly having worked in high-leverage spots for the South Siders. His 22.6% strikeout is down from his 27% peak in 2021 but is roughly in line with last year’s 23.2% mark and only a bit shy of the 23.7% league average for relievers.

That said, there are at least some red flags of note. Graveman has seen his typically excellent ground-ball rate wilt to 39.4%, and his walk rate has spiked in 2023, sitting at a career-worst 10.8%. He’s also plunked five batters — already exceeding last year’s total of three (in 65 innings).

Even if his command hasn’t been as sharp as in the past, Graveman has been generally effective against both right-handed and left-handed opponents. Lefties have mustered only a .182/.338/.291 output against him, and righties haven’t been much better at .221/.293/.404.

Graveman will add another experienced arm to an Astros setup corps featuring Hector Neris, Bryan Abreu, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek. He and Neris both have closing experience, which gives Dusty Baker some options on days closer Ryan Pressly isn’t available. That Graveman is signed through 2024 surely appealed to Houston as well, given the fact that Stanek and Maton are both free agents at the end of the current season. Neris, meanwhile, has an $8.5MM player option (contingent on an end-of-season physical) for the 2024 season. He could very well turn it down, given his current 1.44 ERA and hearty 28.6% strikeout rate.

The addition of Graveman and his remaining salary takes the Astros’ payroll north of $195MM, per Roster Resource. In terms of luxury-tax calculations they’re now over $220MM, which still leaves them with plenty of breathing room underneath the $233MM first tier threshold. Houston now has $149MM in guarantees on next year’s payroll, before considering that option on Neris or what figures to be an expensive slate of arbitration-eligible players. Cy Young candidate Framber Valdez and star outfielder Kyle Tucker headline an arb class that also includes Jose Urquidy, Blake Taylor, Mauricio Dubon, Chas McCormick, Luis Garcia and the aforementioned Abreu. Valdez will be due a raise on this year’s $6.8MM salary. Tucker will get a bump from this season’s $5MM figure.

In exchange for a season-plus of Graveman, the Astros will part with the 25-year-old Lee, whom they selected with the No. 32 overall pick in the 2019 draft. The 23-year-old Lee made his MLB debut last year but appeared in just 12 games and logged only 26 plate appearances. He went 4-for-25 with a pair of doubles, a walk and nine punchouts during that time, though there’s little to be gleaned from such a small sample of work in his debut campaign.

Lee has power but plenty of swing-and-miss in his game, both of which were on display in 2022 when he swatted 25 dingers but fanned in 28.5% of his plate appearances. He hasn’t hit for as much power in Triple-A this season (just five homers) but has lopped nearly four percentage points off that strikeout rate and is currently batting .283/.328/.406. In parts of three Triple-A seasons, he’s a .255/.313/.446 hitter.

Defensively, Lee draws praise for elite arm strength that’s helped him nab 32% of would-be base thieves to this point in his professional career. Baseball America’s latest scouting report, which pegged him seventh in Houston’s system, credits him with an 80-grade arm, average framing ability and above-average blocking skills. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen currently ranks Lee as the game’s No. 75 prospect, putting a 70 grade on his arm strength and likening him to Austin Hedges earlier in his career (circa 2017-18) — an elite defender with enough power to offset a well below-average hit tool.

The White Sox have been relying on Yasmani Grandal as their primary catcher for the past four seasons, but he’s set to become a free agent at season’s end. Backup Seby Zavala posted a superficially strong .270/.347/.382 slash in 205 plate appearances last year, but that was buoyed by a .404 average on balls in play and accompanied by an alarming 31% strikeout rate. Predictably, that wasn’t a recipe for sustainable success; he’s regressed significantly in 2023, batting just .158/.202/.296 in 165 plate appearances. The system’s next most-advanced catcher, Carlos Perez, is having a down year in Triple-A (.248/.305/.429 — 77 wRC+).

Catching looked to be a clear area of need for the White Sox, but in a matter of 72 hours they’ve added an immediate big league option, Lee, and one of the game’s most highly regarded catching prospects in Edgar Quero, who came over from the Halos in the Lucas Giolito/Reynaldo Lopez deal. Lee and Quero will both get opportunities in the Majors in the near future, though Lee is the more immediate option of the two. He should get a look down the stretch, and a strong showing could put him in the mix to be the White Sox’s primary catcher as soon as next year.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the White Sox and Astros were swapping Graveman and Lee. Bob Nightengale of USA Today confirmed it was a one-for-one deal.

Mariners Could Deal From Rotation, Open To Offers On Paul Sewald

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There’s been ample speculation surrounding the Mariners’ excellent young rotation since it was reported that the Cardinals had interest in 26-year-old righty Logan Gilbert. And while a trade involving one of Seattle’s talented arms could be a long shot due to the lofty asking price associated with all controllable young starters, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the M’s would at least consider dealing from their stock in order to acquire a young hitter with several years of control remaining.

Seattle’s rotation features veteran ace Luis Castillo and a quartet of touted young righties: Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Gilbert and Kirby have largely established themselves as quality big league arms, while Miller and Woo have impressed during their rookie efforts.

Gilbert, sporting a 3.88 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate in 20 starts, is controllable for four more years beyond the current season. Kirby (3.49 ERA, 22.6% strikeout rate, 2.4% walk rate) has an additional five seasons of control remaining. Miller (3.96 ERA, 23.9% strikeout rate, 5.1% walk rate in 75 innings) and Woo (4.91 ERA but a 28.9% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate in 44 innings) would each come with six seasons of control beyond the current year. Both Miller and Woo were ranked among the sport’s top 100 prospects at the time of their respective promotions.

The price to acquire any of those arms would surely be steep; not only would the Mariners be seeking a controllable bat to plug into the lineup — they’d likely be seeking a high-end, all-around contributor. Reds fans have regularly asked in MLBTR chats about the possibility of shipping Jonathan India to the Mariners for one of those starters, for instance, but league-average offense at second base and three-plus years of control likely isn’t enough to sway Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto to part with anywhere from four to six seasons of control over a big league starter. (Notably, Rosenthal suggests a trade of India is far likelier in the offseason than in the next few days.) The same could well apply to Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson — another roughly league-average hitter with three-plus seasons of club control remaining.

Should the Mariners find an offer to their liking on any of their talented young arms, Rosenthal suggests they could call up Emerson Hancock from Double-A. The former sixth overall pick has a 4.26 ERA with solid but not eye-popping strikeout and walk numbers over 19 starts there. Rosenthal also floats the possibility of Seattle acquiring an impending free agent starter — perhaps in a Teoscar Hernandez swap with another win-now club — to step into a rotation spot vacated by a trade of a controllable arm. Marco Gonzales is currently on the injured list but could return later in the season; perhaps Robbie Ray will make it back from Tommy John surgery at some point next year.

While a deal involving one of Seattle’s controllable starters would be tough to pull off, trades of shorter-term veterans could be easier to line up. Reliever Paul Sewald is surely of interest to a number of clubs, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported tonight (on Twitter) that Seattle is signaling an openness to moving him.

Sewald has been one of the best relievers in the sport since breaking out with Seattle in 2021. He owns a 2.90 ERA in 170 2/3 innings in an M’s uniform. The right-hander has been effective in all three seasons, including an even 3.00 ERA over 42 frames this year. He’s striking out just under 36% of opponents against a modest 7.9% walk rate.

The 33-year-old righty is playing this season on a $4.1MM arbitration salary. He’s eligible for that process once more before hitting free agency during the 2024-25 offseason. The asking price on Sewald obviously wouldn’t be as extreme as those on the M’s starters, but Seattle would surely aim high in those talks as well.

Max Scherzer Discusses Future With Mets

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The Mets kicked off what’s likely to be a deadline sell-off last night, sending David Robertson to Miami. It’d seemed a long time in the making with New York unable to get above .500 but still marked a symbolic blow for a team that entered the year with championship aspirations.

How aggressively New York will retool the roster remains to be seen. Short-term veterans like Tommy Pham, Brooks Raley and Mark Canha seem likely to move within the next few days. There’s been increasing chatter about a pair of much bigger names: Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

After his start tonight, Scherzer spoke with the New York beat about his future (relayed by Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). While he conceded the roster “put (itself) in this position” by not playing up to expectations, he noted his disappointment with the club’s situation. Regarding both whether he still had confidence in the team to compete in 2023 and his longer-term future with the organization, Scherzer said he was likely to speak with the front office about the club’s direction.

Scherzer declined to say whether he’d be willing to waive his no-trade rights. However, he seemed to tip his hand regarding the $43.333MM player option in his contract for next season. The three-time Cy Young winner said he’s “not going to be a free agent,” distinguishing this from the 2021 deadline when Scherzer waived his no-trade clause to go from the Nationals to the Dodgers three months before free agency.

The star hurler didn’t directly say he was a lock to opt in to next season. His contract with Washington didn’t have any option years, so there was no question he was headed to free agency that winter. Between his no-trade rights and player options, Scherzer has the ability to ensure he’s a Met in 2024. He added he “can see a path to contend next year” with New York but noted that’s pending a conversation with team brass.

Scherzer’s comments surely won’t quiet speculation about the chances of another deadline blockbuster. Yet they’re far from ensuring a move will happen. Even if Scherzer were willing to waive his no-trade rights, the Mets would need to find a deal they consider tenable. Andy Martino of SNY wrote this afternoon the Mets were finding more interest in Verlander of the two pitchers.

Both are making a record annual salary north of $43MM. Verlander is under guaranteed contract next season and has a vesting player option for 2025. Scherzer owns a 4.01 ERA through 107 2/3 innings. He’s striking hitters out at a quality 27.3% clip and limiting walks but has struggled with home runs.

Reds Sign Manager David Bell To Three-Year Extension

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The Reds have signed manager David Bell to a three-year contract extension that runs through the 2026 season, the team announced. His current two-year deal was set to expire at the end of this season.

Bell, 50, is in his fifth year at the helm in Cincinnati. The club went 75-87 in his first season before posting a slightly above-average showing (31-29) in the shortened 2020 schedule. Cincinnati made the expanded postseason that year but was promptly swept in the opening round without scoring a run.

It was a similar situation over a full season in ’21. The Reds hovered around .500 for the majority of the year. They were in possession of a Wild Card spot as late as mid-September but ultimately came up a bit shy of the postseason. After finishing 83-79, Cincinnati cut payroll and kicked off a retool.

The Reds dealt away a number of veterans both leading up to and immediately out of the lockout. A disastrous April portended a brutal 2022 season that saw Cincinnati lose 100 games for just the second time in franchise history. The Reds continued to deal away veterans at the deadline. After another relatively quiet offseason, few expected Cincinnati to make much noise coming into 2023.

After a middling first six weeks, the Reds have gotten hot. They’re 30-19 since the start of June, entering play Friday. They sit eight games above .500 overall and are firmly in the mix for a playoff spot. The Reds are just a game and a half behind the Brewers in the NL Central. They’re in possession of a spot in a tightly-contested Wild Card picture.

Whether this’ll result in the second playoff appearance of Bell’s tenure is to be determined. Yet it’s hard not to view the first four months of this season as anything other than a strong success. Cincinnati has graduated a number of young players from the farm system. The likes of Matt McLain, Andrew Abbott and Spencer Steer have been excellent from the jump. Elly De La Cruz has had an inconsistent first month in the majors but is one of the sport’s most talented young players. Injuries to Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo have forced Cincinnati to use a patchwork rotation for most of the year, but they’ve managed to overcome that.

Now, the club finds itself in position to add to the roster within the next five days. Unsurprisingly, ownership and the front office appear pleased with the organization’s progress. They’ll ensure continuity atop the dugout by keeping their skipper from starting the offseason unsigned. Bell is the seventh-longest tenured active manager in the National League. The Reds have a 307-343 regular season record since he was hired but are trending towards a third above-.500 showing out of five.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Jonah Heim To Miss At Least 2-3 Weeks With Wrist Strain; Surgery Possible

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The Rangers announced that catcher Jonah Heim has been placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to July 27, with a left wrist tendon strain. Outfielder Bubba Thompson was recalled to take his place on the roster. The club also swapped a couple of pitchers, with righty Josh Sborz reinstated from the 15-day IL while righty Owen White was optioned to Triple-A. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News relays that Heim will rest for two to three weeks before seeing if he can play through the pain. If not, he may require season-ending surgery, or that could be pushed to the offseason.

Heim, 28, departed Wednesday’s game with wrist soreness and it appears the issue is serious enough that he’ll sit out a few weeks. There’s still hope of him returning, but being without Heim for any amount of time is surely unwelcome for the Rangers, as he’s been one of the best backstops in the majors this year. He’s already tallied 14 home runs and is slashing .280/.337/.479 for a wRC+ of 123. He’s also been graded as a strong defender, leading to a tally of 3.5 wins above replacement from FanGraphs this year, trailing only Sean Murphy’s 3.7 among all major league catchers.

In the meantime, the club will rely on a catching tandem of Sam Huff and Mitch Garver. The latter is an above-average hitter but frequent injuries have prevented him from ever playing 105 games in a season and he hasn’t reached 70 games since 2019. He missed two months this year due to a knee sprain and has played 33 games, only donning the tools of ignorance in 13 of those. Huff has only played nine major league games this year, spending most of his time in the minors. But he’s hit well down there, slashing .298/.389/.546 for a 121 wRC+.

The Rangers should be fine with that duo for a while but will likely look for reinforcements of some sort. There are no other catchers on the 40-man roster and Garver’s persistent health issues make him hard to bank on for extended playing time. The trade deadline is now just four days away and midseason trades of catchers are tricky given the challenges of learning a new pitching staff on the fly, but the Rangers might have to try.

Austin Hedges of the Pirates would be an obvious candidate as an impending free agent on a struggling Pirates club, and he has already reportedly drawn trade interest. He’s a poor hitter but is generally considered an excellent defender. The White Sox are busily selling and could move Yasmani Grandal, though he’s making $18.25MM this year. Joey Bart seems to have been leapfrogged by Patrick Bailey and Blake Sabol in San Francisco. He’s in his final option year and will be out of options next year, which perhaps makes him disposable to the Giants in the long-term but useful to the Rangers in the short-term. The Mets are rolling with rookie Francisco Álvarez and could perhaps part with Omar Narváez or Tomás Nido. Victor Caratini is stuck behind William Contreras in Milwaukee and has garnered trade interest. Iván Herrera seems to be blocked in St. Louis by Willson Contreras and Andrew Knizner.

The Rangers have had a big lead in the American League West for much of the season but have recently seen the Astros pull within two games while the Angels, six games back, are aggressively making upgrades. Losing a key player like Heim is a rough development for them but they still have a few days to address it.

Yankees Activate Aaron Judge

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The Yankees announced Friday that they’ve reinstated reigning American League MVP Aaron Judge from the 10-day injured list. Infielder Oswald Peraza was optioned to Triple-A in a corresponding move.

A toe injury has kept Judge out of the lineup since June 3, and details surrounding his potential return have been somewhat vague. Manager Aaron Boone said earlier this week that it’s possible Judge could return for the Yankees’ weekend series against the division-leading Orioles, and it appears he’ll be active for all three of those critical games.

Judge, 31, has once again been outstanding in 2023, hitting .291/.404/.674 with 19 home runs in just 213 plate appearances. He’s been sorely missed in a Yankees lineup that is devoid of other notable offensive threats; since Judge landed on the injured list, the Yankees have batted just .220/.296/.374 as a team. Their 163 runs scored in that time rank 29th in the Majors, leading only the Royals. They went 19-23 with Judge on the injured list.

At least initially, Judge will split his time between right field and designated hitter, tweets Greg Joyce of the New York Post. The Yankees will understandably ease him back into the outfield alongside Harrison Bader and whichever of Jake Bauers, Billy McKinney or Greg Allen is in left field on a given day. Willie Calhoun was designated for assignment earlier this morning. Stanton has already been playing a fair bit of right field but could see an uptick in outfield reps, given Judge’s occasional rest days at designated hitter.

The Yankees currently sit two and a half games out of a Wild Card spot, and much has been made about their status leading up to Tuesday’s trade deadline. Judge’s return will push them closer to full strength as the front office makes its final decisions on how to proceed with the roster. The Post’s Jon Heyman reported this week that the Yankees would target an outfielder and reliever if they didn’t slip too far in the standings, but they’ll face a tough task against Baltimore this weekend.

Latest On Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer

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The Mets’ sell-off began in earnest last night when they traded David Robertson to the division-rival Marlins, and further deals are widely expected to come together in the days leading up to Tuesday’s trade deadline. Veteran outfielders Mark Canha and Tommy Pham can be free agents at season’s end — Canha has a 2024 club option — and figure to hold interest to contenders seeking right-handed bats and/or general outfield help. But perhaps no two players will be of as much interest to fans in the next few days as future Hall of Famers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.

Andy Martino of SNY reports that the Mets have thus far received “moderate” interest in Verlander but have not had meaningful enough talks to even approach the three-time Cy Young winner about waiving his no-trade clause. Scherzer has drawn less interest, per Martino.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported late last night that a pair of executives with other clubs believe there’s a real chance the Mets will ultimately trade Verlander. He listed the Rangers and Astros as potential fits, and Martino adds (without directly tying them to Verlander) that the Angels and Reds have been scouting the Mets of late. Feinsand adds that the Rangers were in on Verlander in the offseason, but the 40-year-old righty was more keen on signing with what he viewed as a contending club in Queens. It’s only reasonable to think he’d view the Rangers more favorably now; Texas is leading the AL West and owns the third-best winning percentage and top run differential in the American League. He’s certainly no stranger to pitching in Texas either, having spent several years with the Astros.

Obviously, there would be plenty of obstacles to any trade actually coming together. First and foremost, both Verlander and Scherzer have full no-trade clauses in their contracts. They’d have to approve any deal, although one can imagine that the opportunity to go from a struggling Mets team into the type of playoff chase both envisioned when signing in New York would be quite enticing. Both players are also earning a record $43.333MM annual salary on the contracts they signed in free agency — a massive number which would rule some contending clubs out entirely. Owner Steve Cohen could of course pay down some of that salary in order to facilitate a trade, but the specifics of how much cash to include and what caliber of prospects to send back for either multi-time Cy Young winner would be difficult to broker.

Beyond the contractual hurdles, the simple fact is that neither Verlander nor Scherzer has pitched as well in 2023 as in recent seasons. Verlander’s 3.24 ERA is a perfect match for his career mark, but this year’s 20.9% strikeout rate 8.2% walk rate are nowhere close to last year’s respective rates of 27.8% and 4.4%. Verlander’s 94.6 mph average fastball, 10% swinging-strike rate and 34.9% opponents’ chase rate are all down slightly from last year’s levels of 95.1 mph, 11.6% and 36.9%, as well.

Verlander, who missed the first five weeks of the season due to a strained teres major, is guaranteed $43.333MM this year and next. His contract contains a conditional $35MM player option for the 2025 season that would vest if he pitches 140 innings next year.

As for Scherzer, he’s sporting a 4.20 ERA that would be the second-highest mark of his career — his worst since a 4.43 showing way back in 2011. His 27.4% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate are down from his 2022 levels (30.6% and 4.2%) but still remain considerably better than the league average. However, he’s also giving up home runs at the highest rate of his career. Scherzer has yielded an average of 1.97 round-trippers per nine innings pitched and seen a whopping 16.8% of his fly-balls leave the yard. The latter of those two numbers seems bound for some regression, but Scherzer is giving up hard contact at his highest levels since Statcast began tracking batted-ball data (89.1 mph average exit velocity, 10.3% barrel rate, 38.7% hard-hit rate).

Scherzer is in the second season of a three-year, $130MM contract pays him $43.333MM annually, but he has the right to opt out of the final year of that deal this winter. Barring a return to vintage form over the final couple months, he’s unlikely to match that type of payday on the open market. However, Scherzer suggested prior to the season that the opt-out was negotiated into his contract in large part to see where the organization stood at that point. He knew his now-former teammate Jacob deGrom had a looming opt-out in his deal and wanted to ensure that the Mets would remain committed to fielding a winning club in the event deGrom departed. The Mets certainly strived to do so in 2023, but things haven’t worked out.

Reports have since suggested that Scherzer is willing to waive his no-trade clause, which is only sensible if winning is his his top priority. His willingness to do so hardly guarantees that a deal will come to fruition, but with the Mets beginning to trade short-term veterans, both Scherzer and Verlander figure to be oft-discussed names over the next four days.

Marlins Acquire David Robertson

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The Mets and Marlins pulled off a late-night divisional swap on Thursday. Miami acquired veteran reliever David Robertson in exchange for low minors prospects Marco Vargas and Ronald Hernandez. The Fish transferred Matt Barnes to the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man roster spot.

Robertson was one of the top rental relievers on the trade market for the second straight summer. The Cubs flipped the right-hander to the Phillies at last year’s deadline, bringing back pitching prospect Ben Brown. Robertson helped Philadelphia’s run to a pennant in 2022; he’ll hope for a similar late-season push in Miami.

Signed to a one-year, $10MM free agent deal over the offseason, the former All-Star was supposed to assume a key setup role in Queens. Edwin Díaz’s freak knee injury pushed Robertson into the ninth inning unexpectedly. While much of the New York roster has underperformed, the 15-year MLB veteran had a very strong few months in Flushing.

Robertson owns a 2.05 ERA across 44 innings. He’s well on his way to what’d be the sixth sub-3.00 showing of his career. He’s striking out just under 28% of opposing hitters while generating whiffs on a quality 13.1% of his offerings. Robertson’s command had been spotty in 2022 — perhaps a reflection of rust after injuries cost him the bulk of the 2019-21 seasons — but he’s dialed the strike-throwing back in this season. Robertson has walked only 7.6% of batters faced.

He’s 14-17 in save opportunities and has picked up an additional seven holds. Robertson has dominated right and left-handed hitters alike this season and brings a rare consistency for a single-inning reliever. He’ll take on a key high-leverage role for the Fish, likely taking over closing duties. Left-handers Tanner Scott and A.J. Puk are also in the late innings. Miami’s bullpen was a bit thinner on right-handed options, so they’ll bring in Robertson one day after a swap of change-of-scenery relievers sent Dylan Floro to Minnesota for Jorge López.

The intra-division swap serves as a reminder of how disappointing the Mets’ 2023 campaign has been. New York, coming off a 101-win season and running the highest payroll in MLB history, entered the year with championship aspirations. Miami was viewed more as an upstart, a team with plenty of young talent that faced an uphill battle to finish higher than fourth in their division.

Four months later, the Marlins are buying from the Mets. Miami held a Wild Card spot for the bulk of the season. They’ve hit a cold spell, dropping nine of their last 11. They now find themselves outside the playoff picture but only marginally, as they’re half a game behind Cincinnati for the National League’s last postseason spot.

With a real chance to make the playoffs in a 162-game schedule for the first time in two decades, the Fish will deal from the low minors to add immediate MLB help. Now that they’ve fortified the bullpen, general manager Kim Ng and her staff could try to bolster the position player group in the coming days. They’ve been tied to infielders like Tim Anderson and Jeimer Candelario in recent days.

Miami appears to have some financial breathing room. Marlins’ owner Bruce Sherman implied as much a few weeks ago, and they’ll put that into practice by taking on the roughly $3.55MM owed to Robertson through season’s end. The Mets haven’t been shy about potentially paying down contracts to facilitate a better prospect return. That apparently wasn’t necessary in Miami’s case. Roster Resource had calculated the Marlins’ payroll around $103.6MM before the deal; it’ll jump past $107MM at this point.

The cash savings for the Mets will go beyond what Miami assumes in salary. Any money which New York offloads would also come with a 90% savings in luxury taxes which the club had been set to pay. The Mets save around $3.2MM in taxes and approximately $6.7MM overall.

More meaningfully, the organization adds a pair of intriguing low level talents. Vargas, 18, is a left-handed hitting infielder out of Mexico. He’d ranked 20th among Miami prospects at Baseball America coming into the season, though BA’s Josh Norris tweets that he was rising up the ranks after impressing evaluators in the complex league this summer.

The outlet’s preseason report praised Vargas’ bat-t0-ball skills and suggested he’s likely to fit best defensively at second base. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs ranked him ninth in the Marlins’ system at the end of May, similarly praising his hit tool. Vargas has a .283/.457/.442 line with nearly twice as many walks as strikeouts in 33 games this year.

Hernandez, 19, is a switch-hitting backstop from Venezuela. He’s repeating the level at the complex league but raking at a .298/.464/.452 clip over 31 games. FanGraphs ranked him 24th in the Miami system, crediting his advanced hit tool and above-average arm strength. There’s ample variability in targeting players this young, but each of Vargas and Hernandez seems to have a shot at being an everyday player down the line if they develop as hoped.

That’ll be little consolation for the Mets in the short term. Moving Robertson confirms their increasingly obvious place as deadline sellers. Other potential free agents like Tommy Pham, Carlos Carrasco and Mark Canha (whose contract contains a ’24 club option) could follow Robertson out the door. The Mets may not have the appetite for a larger-scale rebuild, but their place in the standings this year has gotten too hard to ignore.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Marlins were acquiring Robertson. Rosenthal and Will Sammon first reported the Mets were receiving two minor league hitters in return. Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first with the return of Vargas and Hernandez. The Post’s Joel Sherman confirmed the Marlins were taking on all of Robertson’s remaining money.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Orioles Interested In Michael Lorenzen

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The Orioles are among the teams eyeing Tigers’ starter Michael Lorenzen, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). They join the Astros and Rays as clubs reportedly in the mix for the Detroit righty.

Just as Lorenzen is a sensible target for Houston and Tampa Bay, the fit for Baltimore is straightforward. Lorenzen seems highly likely to move before next Tuesday’s deadline. He’s an impending free agent on a Detroit club that fell 11 games below .500 upon getting swept in a doubleheader against the Angels today.

The first-time All-Star is having arguably the best season of his career. It’s his second straight season as a full-time starter. After posting league average numbers in 18 starts for the Angels last year, the 31-year-old has been a mid-rotation caliber arm this season. Even following a five-inning, three-run performance against the Halos this afternoon, he carries a 3.58 ERA across 105 2/3 frames.

Lorenzen’s underlying marks aren’t quite that strong, largely because he’s not missing a ton of bats. His 19.9% strikeout rate is a couple points below league average, while his 42.5% grounder percentage is right around par. The nine-year MLB veteran has walked only 6.5% of opponents, though, a notable improvement on last year’s 10.7% figure. He’s mixing five pitches with some amount of regularity and hasn’t had any platoon concerns.

That production makes him a logical target for win-now teams seeking rotation help. The Orioles certainly qualify. Baltimore  has the best record in the American League at 62-40. They’re up a game and a half (three in the loss column) on Tampa Bay for the AL East lead. The rebuild is over, and while there’s still some question about how aggressively the O’s will push chips in, they could make a competitive offer for Lorenzen without subtracting from the top of the farm system.

Detroit signed Lorenzen to an $8.5MM free agent deal. Just over $3MM of that salary is yet to be paid out. Lorenzen has already locked in an extra $250K in incentives by passing the 100-inning mark and would earn a matching amount at 125, 150, 175, 195 and 205 frames.

That’s a modest price to pay for a mid-rotation arm who’d likely step into the projected playoff rotation. Baltimore’s starting staff is its relative weak point. The O’s have an excellent offense and elite relief corps but rank 17th in MLB with a 4.52 rotation ERA.

Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells each have a sub-4.00 mark with slightly above-average strikeout/walk profiles. Kyle Gibson has offered his typically steady back-of-the-rotation innings. Dean Kremer has been a bit homer-prone en route to a fine but unexciting 4.59 ERA in 21 starts. Offseason trade pickup Cole Irvin has struggled and bounced in and out of the rotation, while top prospect Grayson Rodriguez has an ERA pushing 7.00 through his first 12 big league outings.

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