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Newsstand

Red Sox Extend Rafael Devers

By Darragh McDonald | January 11, 2023 at 8:24am CDT

Jan. 11: The Red Sox have formally announced the contract as a 10-year extension with Devers, spanning the 2024-33 seasons. As reported last night, that keeps his 2023 luxury tax hit at $17.5MM (the sum of the one-year deal he agreed to in order to avoid arbitration), while the $31.35MM luxury hit on his extension will go into effect in 2024.

Jan. 4: The Red Sox and third baseman Rafael Devers are in agreement on an extension that will keep him in Boston through the 2033 season. Though many outlets reported this as an 11-year extension worth $331MM, Devers and the Sox had already agreed to a $17.5MM salary for 2023. In terms of new money, then, he’s agreed to a ten-year, $313.5MM extension. There are no opt-outs in the deal and he won’t have a no-trade clause. The deal is pending a physical and is not yet official. Devers is represented by Rep 1 Baseball.

Devers, 26, was set to enter his final year of club control. He was slated to reach free agency after the upcoming campaign but will now stay in Boston for an extra decade, with this agreement set to take him through the 2033 campaign and his age-36 season. It’s easily the largest deal in franchise history, which was previously held by the $217MM deal for David Price. It will also be the 10th-largest guarantee in MLB history, while the $31.35MM average annual value will get him into the top 20 all-time.

Devers will now stick with the only organization he’s ever known and could well spend his entire career in Boston. The Sox signed him out of the Dominican Republic as a 16-year-old in August of 2013, giving him a $1.5MM bonus. He worked his way through the minors and was seen by many as one of the top prospects in the sport. Baseball America ranked him in the top 20 on their top 100 list in both 2016 and 2017. In that latter season, Devers cracked the majors and debuted while just 20 years old. Despite that young age, he hit 10 home runs in just 58 games and produced a batting line of .284/.338/.482. That led to a wRC+ of 110, indicating he was 10% better than the league average hitter.

Devers endured a bit of a sophomore slump in 2018 but has put that behind him in a big way. Over the last four years, he’s hit 108 home runs and produced an overall batting line of .292/.352/.532. That production has been 32% better than league average by measure of wRC+, placing him among the top 25 hitters in the league for that time period.

For the Red Sox, it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster time for the franchise over the past few years. They hoisted the World Series trophy in 2018 but then saw star right fielder Mookie Betts traded to the Dodgers alongside Price. Though the Sox got some interesting players in return, it was widely-viewed as a financially-motivated decision, a bitter pill for fans to swallow after a strong run of success that saw them win four titles from 2004 to 2018. The club slid to last place in the American League East in the shortened 2020 campaign.

Though 2021 saw the club surprise many onlookers by returning to the postseason, they had another disappointing campaign in 2022, finishing last in the division for the second time in three years. This offseason, another star player departed when shortstop Xander Bogaerts opted out of his contract. Though the Sox maintained that retaining Bogaerts was a top priority, he instead signed with the Padres for $280MM over 11 years while Boston came up well short, reportedly in the $160MM range.

With Betts and Bogaerts both leaving for California, the focus turned to Devers. With just one year until free agency, many wondered if the Fenway Faithful would have to endure a third superstar departure in a four-year span, or perhaps a three-year span if the club considered a trade. The reporting on the matter seemed dire as recently as a couple of months ago, indicating that the sides were not close in their extension talks with Boston offering something in the vicinity of $212MM. Instead, they have stepped up in a big way to ensure that Devers is the face of the franchise for years to come. In the long run, it’s possible that Devers may have to move from third base to first base, since his defense isn’t as highly regarded as his bat. But those will be conversations for later days, with another 11 years for the club to figure out how to set the lineup.

In the short term, this won’t change the makeup of the Red Sox on the field, since Devers was already going to be a part of the 2023 club. But it could have an impact on the financial ledger. Devers was previously set to have a $17.5MM count towards Boston’s luxury tax but that number will now jump to $30.09MM. The specific breakdown of the Devers deal isn’t known, but the competitive balance tax is calculated based on the average annual value of the deal, so the breakdown won’t change the CBT calculations. With that new figure in place, the club’s total CBT tally is now $224MM, according to the calculations at Roster Resource. That puts them within striking distance of the lowest luxury tax threshold, which will be $233MM this year. Any further additions, whether this offseason or as the season itself progresses, could potentially push them over the line. Since they paid the tax in 2022, they would be considered a second-time payor in 2023.

Former player Carlos Baerga first reported that the sides were in agreement on Instagram, but had the terms as 11 years and $332MM. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the $331MM figure and added the $20MM signing bonus. Jeff Passan of ESPN clarified that the deal included 2023 and would only add ten years beyond that. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first added the absence of a no-trade clause and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe first had the lack of opt-outs.

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Boston Red Sox Newsstand Transactions Rafael Devers

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Trevor Story Underwent Internal Brace Surgery On Right Elbow

By Darragh McDonald | January 10, 2023 at 3:10pm CDT

3:10pm: Bloom didn’t provide a specific timeline on Story for the upcoming season, noting that a return is possible “but it’s not something at this stage we want to bank on,” per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Bloom also said Story was preparing to play shortstop before aggravating his elbow, per Speier.

2:50: Red Sox infielder Trevor Story had internal brace surgery on his right elbow yesterday, per a release from the team. “Boston Red Sox infielder Trevor Story yesterday underwent a successful internal bracing procedure of the right ulnar collateral ligament (elbow),” the statement reads. “Dr. Keith Meister performed the surgery at Texas Metroplex Institute in Arlington, Texas.” Chris Cotillo of MassLive. reported the surgery shortly before the official announcement and adds that chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom will speak at 4pm Eastern/3pm Central.

The club has not provided a timeline on Story’s expected recovery, with that information perhaps to come when Bloom speaks. Until that information comes out, we can only speculate on the timeline, but it’s worth pointing out that the UCL is the same ligament that is replaced in Tommy John surgery. The internal brace procedure is generally considered to be less invasive and allow players to return quicker, but the recovery period still usually takes months. For one recent example, outfielder Eli White underwent the procedure while a member of the Rangers last year, with the club announcing at that time that White was expected to miss six months. Each player is unique and will have their own responses to different injuries, but it seems fair to assume that Story is slated for a significant absence of some kind.

For Story, there have been concerns swirling around his throwing arm for some time now. He made 11 throwing errors while with the Rockies in 2021, with some scouts expressing trepidation about this throws after that season. Statcast’s new arm strength leaderboard ranked Story as averaging 79.1 mph on his throws from short, a mark that placed him 52nd out of 58 shortstops to make at least 100 throws that year. That was a noticeable drop from 2020, when Story was at 82.3 mph and ranked 22nd out of 34 shortstops who made 100 throws.

Despite those concerns, the Sox signed Story to a six-year, $140MM deal going into 2022. At the time of the signing, Story was expected to play second base in deference to shortstop Xander Bogaerts, but it was also seen as a possible safety net for a Bogaerts departure. Since Bogaerts had the ability to opt out of his deal after 2022, the Sox would then have the option of sliding Story to the other side of the bag to replace him.

The position change gave Story and the Sox a year to evaluate things, with Story making shorter throws from second. He averaged 76.1 mph on his throws last year, which was another drop from the year before and placed him 61st among 70 second basemen to make 100 throws on the year. On top of that, the Sox indeed saw Bogaerts opt out of his contract and sign with the Padres this winter.

Though Story’s timeline is still to be determined, it seems like the Sox will now have to figure out how to navigate their middle infield without Bogaerts or Story, at least for a few months. If the club decides to stick with internal options, they could go with Enrique Hernández and Christian Arroyo, though Hernandez seemed ticketed to be the everyday center fielder, so they would have to figure out a solution there. Jarren Duran would be an option to take over in center, though he struggled in 2022 by hitting just .221/.283/.363. There are some other infielders on the roster such as David Hamilton and Enmanuel Valdez, though they’ve only recently been added and have no major league experience.

It’s also possible the club could look for external upgrades. The top free agent options are all off the board, assuming today’s Carlos Correa deal with the Twins is the one that finally gets across the finish line. Elvis Andrus, Josh Harrison and Andrelton Simmons are some of the middle infield options still on the board, if the Sox decide to go that route. On the trade market, there are some players who could be available, such as Isiah Kiner-Falefa of the Yankees, though an inter-division trade might be tricky. Amed Rosario of the Guardians has been mentioned as a speculative candidate, as has Nick Madrigal of the Cubs. The Sox and Marlins have reportedly discussed Joey Wendle and Miguel Rojas in trade talks, so perhaps those discussions could be revisited in light of today’s news.

However the Sox approach it, it seems fair to say that they have been dealt a blow for 2023. Despite being hurt in 2022, Story still hit 16 home runs in 94 games and slashed .238/.303/.434. One silver lining of the surgery is that there’s at least an explanation for his diminished arm strength. If the surgery is successful in repairing his ligament and he’s able to get back into form, perhaps he can take over the shortstop position later in the year. Story’s contract runs through 2027 but he has the ability to opt out after 2025, with the Sox then able to negate the opt-out by tacking on another year and keeping him through 2028.

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Boston Red Sox Newsstand Trevor Story

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Blue Jays Sign Brandon Belt

By Anthony Franco | January 10, 2023 at 2:25pm CDT

January 10: The Jays have officially announced Belt’s signing.

January 9: After 12 seasons with the Giants, Brandon Belt is headed to Toronto. He’s in agreement with the Blue Jays on a one-year, $9.3MM contract for the 2023 season. The Excel Sports Management client has reportedly already passed his physical. The Jays are expected to formally announce the signing Tuesday, at which point they’ll need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move.

A fifth-round pick by San Francisco in 2009, Belt reached the majors two seasons later. He played in 63 games as a rookie and took hold of the primary first base job by his second season. Belt was a key contributor on San Francisco’s 2012 World Series team, hitting .275/.360/.421 over 145 games. Injuries limited him to 61 regular season contests during the 2014 season but he was healthy enough to contribute to San Francisco’s third title in five years during the playoffs.

Belt battled intermittent injury issues throughout the coming years. When healthy, he was a consistently productive offensive player. While San Francisco’s pitcher-friendly home ballpark depressed his over-the-fence power, he was an annual threat for 30+ doubles and posted huge on-base numbers thanks to massive walk rates. At the start of the 2016 season, the Giants inked Belt to a $72.8MM extension that kept him off the open market through the 2021 campaign. He followed up with a .275/.394/.474 showing through 655 trips to the plate, earning his only career All-Star nod in the process.

The Texas product saw his production tail off a bit over the next few seasons, hitting at a slightly above-average level through 2019. He rebounded in a huge way in 2020, mashing at a .309/.425/.591 clip to secure some down-ballot MVP support during the shortened season. He continued to rake the following season but saw that year frequently interrupted by injury. Belt lost time to a left oblique strain and soreness in his right knee but managed a .274/.378/.597 showing while shattering his previous career mark with 29 home runs in just 97 games. Unfortunately, an errant pitch fractured his left thumb late in the season and he wasn’t able to participate in San Francisco’s playoff run.

In advance of what was set to be Belt’s first trip to free agency, the Giants tagged him with an $18.9MM qualifying offer. He accepted and returned to the Bay Area for another season. Injuries again proved problematic, this time seemingly have a deleterious effect on his performance even when he did manage to take the field. Belt had a trio of IL stints last season and while the first was a very brief absence related to COVID-19, the latter two were more worrisome. He lost around three weeks between May and June due to inflammation in his balky right knee and that again arose in mid-August.

After his second knee-related IL placement, the veteran elected to shut things down and undergo season-ending surgery. It was the third surgical procedure he’d undergone on that knee. Belt acknowledged he might contemplate retirement if recovery didn’t go well, but he told reporters a few weeks later he felt revitalized by the operation.

The injuries sent him to the open market in advance of his age-35 campaign coming off arguably his worst season. He hit .213/.326/.350 through 298 trips to the plate. Belt still walked at an excellent 12.4% clip but saw his power production drop. He managed eight home runs and posted a career-low .138 ISO (slugging minus batting average). Belt’s 38.5% hard contact rate, while still a bit better than average, was markedly down from his 2020-21 levels.

Toronto clearly believes that diminished production was a symptom of the injuries, which the club can hope won’t be as concerning after last summer’s surgery. If Belt can recapture any of his previous form, he’d add a quality left-handed bat to a predominantly right-handed lineup. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be the everyday first baseman. Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk figure to get a decent number of designated hitter at-bats when the other is in the lineup at catcher. Everyone in that group hits from the right side, so Belt adds some balance to the mix. None of those players will be strictly relegated to the short side of a platoon by Belt but he adds another high-upside offensive option for skipper John Schneider.

It’s a short-term deal but isn’t an insignificant commitment for the club. Tacking on Belt’s $9.3MM salary brings Toronto’s projected 2023 payroll a bit above $212MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That shatters last year’s approximate $171MM commitment, which had been a franchise record. More notably, it firmly positions the Jays as likely luxury tax payors for the first time in franchise history. The organization is up around $242MM in tax obligations, according to Roster Resource. After entering the night within a rounding error of the base threshold of $233MM, they’re pushing well past it to bring in more offensive help.

A team’s CBT number is officially tabulated at the end of the season, so the front office could theoretically look for ways to dip back under the line. That seems unlikely as the Jays battle for what they hope will be their first AL East title in eight years. Toronto boasts one of the league’s best lineups but could still look for help at the back of the rotation or in the bullpen over the next couple months.

The Blue Jays will pay a 20% tax on their first $20MM in CBT overages. They’re set to take on around $1.84MM in fees as a result of this signing, meaning their actual commitment to bring in Belt is closer to $11MM. If they surpass the $253MM mark, they’d be taxed at a 30% rate on any additional overages. Going past $273MM would come with further penalties.

San Francisco will move forward without one of the last remaining players from their excellent run in the first half of the last decade. Brandon Crawford is the only player from the 2014 team who’s still a Giant. It had long looked as if the club were going in that direction this offseason, with LaMonte Wade Jr. and J.D. Davis looking likely to share first base reps.

Belt had been one of the top first basemen still available on the open market. The free agent class at the position is now led by Trey Mancini and Yuli Gurriel, while Luke Voit and Miguel Sanó are around as bounceback targets for clubs looking to roll the dice on a power bat.

 Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle was first to report Belt and the Blue Jays were in agreement on a one-year contract that’d be announced Tuesday and that Belt had already passed his physical. Kaitlyn McGrath of the Athletic was first with the $9.3MM guarantee.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Newsstand San Francisco Giants Toronto Blue Jays Transactions Brandon Belt

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Nationals Sign Corey Dickerson

By Steve Adams | January 10, 2023 at 1:14pm CDT

1:14pm: The Nationals have officially announced their signing of Dickerson.

7:30am: The Nationals and free-agent outfielder Corey Dickerson are in agreement on a one-year deal worth $2.25MM, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The Excel Sports Management client can earn another $750K via performance incentives. The Nats Report first reported that Dickerson and the Nationals were in agreement on a deal.

Dickerson, 33, will join his eighth big league team with this agreement — and his third in the National League East, having played prior stints with both the Phillies (2019) and Marlins (2020-21). His 2022 season was spent with the Cardinals, where he logged a .267/.300/.399 slash with six homers, 17 doubles and a triple in 297 plate appearances. That slash is at least somewhat skewed by an awful start to the season which saw him bat .180/.237/.213 through his first 97 plate appearances; from June 1 through the end of the 2022 campaign, Dickerson recorded 200 trips to the plate and posted a hefty .307/.330/.484 batting line.

In reality, Dickerson’s true talent level likely lies somewhere between the two extremes. The 2017 All-Star and 2018 Gold Glove winner is a lifetime .281/.324/.481 hitter but has settled in closer to a league-average bat since the 2020  season, slashing .266/.313/.403 in 872 turns at the plate.

The left-handed-hitting Dickerson carries a fairly sharp platoon split, with the majority of his power coming versus right-handed pitching. Dickerson’s 25.8% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate against lefties are also demonstrably worse than his respective 18.9% and 6.1% marks when holding the platoon advantage. Overall, Dickerson has held his own in terms of batting average against lefties (.259) but has paired that with a bleak .299 on-base percentage and just a .394 slugging percentage. Against righties, however, he’s slashed .287/.331/.505.

For a rebuilding Nationals squad with an all-right-handed-hitting outfield of Alex Call, Victor Robles and Lane Thomas, adding Dickerson on an affordable one-year deal is eminently sensible. His days as a center fielder should be behind him, but Dickerson can take plate appearances against right-handed pitching off the plates of each of his new fellow outfielders. Robles, in particular, was anemic against righties in 2022, slashing just .188/.238/.258 in 240 plate appearances. It’s also worth noting that Call was a 27-year-old rookie in 2022, and while his production in the upper minors (and in his 47-game MLB debut) certainly merited the promotion, he’s not exactly locked in as an established, everyday big leaguer just yet.

Dickerson could also see some time at designated hitter, and the Nationals will surely mix in 2022 breakout slugger Joey Menseses — another right-handed hitter.  Meneses could log time at first base, spelling recent signee Dominic Smith against lefties, and he’s an option in the outfield corners and at designated hitter.

There should be plenty of at-bats to go around, and given the short big league track records of Call, Thomas and Meneses — to say nothing of Robles’ continued offensive struggles that now span the past three seasons — Dickerson should fit in nicely and raise the floor for a lineup that’s light on proven hitters. He’ll also give the Nationals a potential trade chip at the deadline. Dickerson alone isn’t going to fetch a prominent, top-tier prospect, but he can still net the Nats some minor league talent if he’s healthy and performing well.

With Dickerson in the fold, the Nationals’ payroll will inch beyond the $104MM mark. It’s a far cry from the $197MM Opening Day payroll the team trotted out in 2019, when they went on to win the World Series. However, this iteration of the Nationals is more focused on building up the farm and setting the stage for future seasons, and the front office’s rebuilding effort is taking place in conjunction with ownership’s exploration of a potential sale of the team.

Be that as it may, the generally slashed payroll leaves the Nats with plenty of latitude for additional spending, should further deals to their liking present themselves. Beyond Dickerson, Washington has thus far agreed to Major League deals with the aforementioned Smith (one year, $2MM), third baseman Jeimer Candelario (one year, $5MM), swingman Erasmo Ramirez (one year, $1MM) and right-hander Trevor Williams (two years, $13MM) in free agency. There’s still room for another veteran starter, and the bullpen has plenty of uncertainty that could be offset by the addition of a more reliable name.

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Newsstand Transactions Washington Nationals Corey Dickerson

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Marlins To Sign Johnny Cueto

By Nick Deeds and Steve Adams | January 10, 2023 at 7:59am CDT

The Marlins are in agreement with free agent right-hander Johnny Cueto, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (via Twitter). Cueto, a client of Primo Sports Group, will be guaranteed $8.5MM on a one-year deal with a club option for the 2024 season, per Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald (Twitter link). That’ll be paid out in the form of a $6MM salary for the upcoming season, plus a $2.5MM buyout on a $10.5MM option for a second year. If the Fish pick up that option, Cueto would earn $16.5MM over the next two seasons.

Cueto, who’ll pitch next season at age 37, began his career with the Reds in 2008 and was among the best pitchers in baseball for them from 2011 to 2015, when he was dealt to the Royals midseason in exchange for Brandon Finnegan, John Lamb, and Cody Reed. The highlight of Cueto’s tenure in Cincinnati was the 2014 season, when he led the NL in innings pitched (243 2/3) and strikeouts (242) while also posting a sterling 2.25 ERA (163 ERA+) en route to his first All-Star appearance and a second-place finish in Cy Young award voting.

Cueto went on to win a World Series with the Royals in 2015 before departing for free agency, where he eventually landed with the Giants on a six-year, $130MM deal. In the first year of his deal with San Francisco, Cueto was excellent. An ERA of 2.79 (144 ERA+) with a FIP of 2.95 over 219 2/3 innings led him to his second All-Star appearance and a fourth-place finish in Cy Young award voting as the Giants secured a spot in the Wild Card game, defeating the Mets in a one-game playoff before falling to the Cubs in the NLDS.

While the contract appeared to be a resounding success after the first year, things quickly took a turn as Cueto began to struggle to stay on the field. From 2017 until the end of his Giants tenure in 2021, Cueto posted a 4.38 ERA (95 ERA+) and 4.47 FIP in just 394 1/3 innings while spending time on the injured list in each of those seasons except for the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. Given his injury history and the fact that his numbers were closer to those of a back-end starter than the dominant ace he once was, Cueto settled for a minor-league deal with the White Sox in 2022 — albeit one with a notable base salary of $4.2MM (quite a bit higher than most minor league deals).

That deal worked out phenomenally for the White Sox, as Cueto posted a resurgent season in 2022 and looked like a bit more like his old self as he posted a 3.35 ERA (118 ERA+) and and 3.79 FIP across 24 starts and 158 1/3 innings. While Cueto no longer struck batters out at an above-average rate as he did in the prime of his career, he maintained his excellent control, posting a 5.1% walk rate that ranked in the 88th percentile of all MLB hurlers, per Statcast. Despite Cueto’s resurgent season, however, there’s reason to think regression could be on the way in 2023. Cueto’s homer-to-flyball rate dropped considerably from a 12% rate in 2021 to a 7.7% rate in 2022. While changes to the pitching environment could factor into this, Cueto’s mark in 2022 was below even his career 10.4% mark — even as he gave up barreled balls at his highest rate since 2019.

Despite these concerns, Cueto should still be a quality arm for the Marlins in 2023. He joins a Miami rotation already overflowing with options: ace Sandy Alcantara is followed by Pablo Lopez, Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera, and Braxton Garrett in addition to Cueto.

That’s also not including young arms who could contribute in the future, such as Sixto Sanchez, Eury Perez, Jake Eder and Max Meyer. Tommy John surgery has sidelined both Eder (Aug. 2021) and Meyer (July 2022) recently, and Sanchez has dealt with recurring shoulder troubles. Still, that trio are all fairly well regarded, while Perez is arguably the top pitching prospect in the sport at this point.

Rumors have swirled throughout the offseason of the Marlins dealing from their deep stable of rotation players, and signing Cueto provides them with additional depth in the rotation in order to more comfortably make those deals. Currently, the Marlins are reported to be listening to offers on four members of the rotation: Lopez, Rogers, Cabrera and Luzardo. With plenty of teams still looking to add to their rotation this offseason, including the Red Sox, Dodgers, Cardinals, and Padres, signing one of the best remaining starters on the free agent market has surely strengthened Miami’s position in trade talks.

With Cueto now in place, the Marlins’ projected payroll is up to about $106MM, per Roster Resource. That’d represent the team’s highest mark since trotting out a franchise-record $117MM Opening Day payroll back in 2017, though it’s of course still one of the smaller financial outlays of any team in the sport. It also bears mentioning that a trade from that stable of young starters could reduce the total expenditure; Lopez is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.6MM in 2023. Luzardo is projected to earn $2MM. Rogers and Cabrera are not yet arbitration-eligible.

The Padres and Reds are among the clubs that have shown interest in Cueto this winter previously. The starting options on the free agent market this offseason are quickly dwindling, but Michael Wacha and Zack Greinke still offer the ability to solidify a club’s rotation. Otherwise, rotation upgrades likely would need to come from the trade market, where the Marlins seem to hold the majority of the cards.

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Giants Sign Luke Jackson To Two-Year Deal

By Steve Adams | January 9, 2023 at 12:07pm CDT

The Giants announced Monday that they’ve signed free-agent righty Luke Jackson to a two-year contract that includes a club option for a third season. He’ll be guaranteed $11.5MM that’s paid out in the form of a $3MM salary in 2023, a $6.5MM salary in 2024 and then a $2MM buyout on a $7MM option for the third year. Jackson, a client of Beverly Hills Sports Council, didn’t pitch in 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery back in April. The Giants didn’t provide a timeline, but given the date of his surgery, it’s likely Jackson will open the season on the injured list.

The 31-year-old Jackson had something of a roller-coaster tenure in the Atlanta bullpen, at times operating as the team’s closer and on other occasions being relegated to low-leverage roles while struggling through rocky results. He saved his best performance for last, however, dominating as the team’s primary setup man during their run to the World Series in 2021.

Jackson, who shook off a disastrous 6.84 ERA in the shortened 2020 season, pitched to an outstanding 1.98 ERA with a 26.8% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate for the Braves during the ’21 regular season. He was virtually unhittable in the season’s final couple months, recording a 1.35 ERA and 33-to-10 K/BB ratio with just one homer allowed over his final 26 2/3 frames that year.

For much of the postseason, the same was true. Jackson was unscored upon through his first six games in the playoffs — four NLDS games and two in the NLCS — before the Dodgers ambushed him for four runs in just one-third of an inning. The Braves lost that game (with Jackson taking the loss) but hung on to win the series. The World Series offered a chance at redemption for Jackson, and he seized it, firing 3 2/3 shutout innings with just one hit, no walks and four punchouts.

Looking at Jackson’s career from a broader perspective, the former No. 45 overall pick (Rangers, 2010) was a touted pitching prospect with Texas before being sent to the Braves in exchange for right-handers Tyrell Jenkins and Brady Feigl. Neither of those pitchers did anything for Texas, and while Jackson’s first season with the Braves in 2017 was rather nondescript, he began to turn a corner the following season.

It was 2018 when Jackson entirely shelved his changeup, scaled back the usage of his four-seamer and curveball, and began to throw his slider more than any other offering. Since that point, Jackson has seen his strikeout rate leap from an awful 13.4% to a very strong 27.1%. He’s averaged 95.5 mph on his heater along the way and also gone from a fly-ball pitcher to a robust ground-ball worker, keeping a whopping 55.8% of balls put into play against him on the ground. Command has been a frequent issue, evidenced by a 10% walk rate in his past 203 1/3 innings (2018-21), but Jackson’s ability to miss bats, induce double-plays and avoid home runs (0.93 HR/9) have helped him to offset that below-average ability to locate the ball.

Though he’s likely IL-bound to start the year, Jackson could still jump back into the big league bullpen before the season’s halfway point. Once he does, he’ll add some more swing-and-miss to what has become an increasingly sound relief corps in San Francisco. Lefty Taylor Rogers was signed for late-inning work alongside presumptive closer Camilo Doval, and the Giants will also have John Brebbia and Tyler Rogers (Taylor’s twin brother) in the mix for late-inning opportunities. The pitching staff has as many as seven capable starters — Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, Ross Stripling, Sean Manaea, Anthony DeSclafani, Jakob Junis — and the potential for two of them (Junis and perhaps DeSclafani) to pitch in relief only further deepens the bullpen.

Jackson’s modest $3MM salary in 2023 will push the payroll to a projected $192.2MM, per Roster Resource, while the Giants are now up to more than $213MM in luxury-tax obligations. That leaves plenty of room for some additional signings, whether to further deepen the relief corps or to add another bat to the lineup.

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Newsstand San Francisco Giants Transactions Luke Jackson

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Brewers Sign Wade Miley

By Anthony Franco and Darragh McDonald | January 9, 2023 at 11:30am CDT

Jan. 9: The Brewers formally announced their one-year deal with Miley. This weekend’s trade of Justin Topa to the Mariners opened a spot on the 40-man roster.

Jan. 4: The Brewers are in agreement with veteran starter Wade Miley on a one-year deal. It’s reportedly a $4.5MM guarantee for the O’Connell Sports Management client. Miley will make $3.5MM next season and is guaranteed a $1MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option for the 2024 campaign.

The deal also contains various innings-based incentives that could max it out at $6MM. He’d earn an extra $150K by getting to 75 innings pitched, followed by $350K for getting to the 100-inning plateau and two $500K bonuses available at 125 and 150 innings. The deal also contains a $250K assignment bonus if Miley were traded.

Miley, 36, heads to his third NL Central team in as many seasons. He spent two years with the Reds from 2020-21, including a 3.37 ERA through 28 starts during the latter campaign. The Reds nevertheless placed him on waivers at the start of last offseason, as they’d evidently determined not to trigger a $10MM option on his services. Miley was claimed by the Cubs, who promptly exercised the option, and he went on to spend one year on Chicago’s North Side.

It wasn’t the kind of season the Cubs had envisioned. The 12-year MLB veteran began the season on the injured list thanks to inflammation in his throwing elbow. He made his team debut in early May, but that return proved short-lived. He went back on the IL after four starts, this time due to a strain in his shoulder. Miley wound up out of action for over two months, not returning until September. He pitched five times down the stretch, concluding his season with nine appearances.

To his credit, the crafty veteran remained effective when able to take the hill. The former All-Star pitched to a 3.16 ERA through 37 innings. He averaged only 85.1 MPH on the cutter that served as his primary pitch and struck out a below-average 17.6% of opponents. Miley has never overpowered batters, relying instead on solid enough control and the ability to avoid barrels.

That was again the case during his limited 2022 work. Miley induced grounders on a very strong 52.6% of batted balls. He held opponents to a subpar 86.7 MPH average exit velocity and allowed fewer than one home run for every nine innings pitched for a third straight season. While he hasn’t topped a 20% strikeout rate in a season since 2014, his heavy reliance on a cutter and changeup has allowed him to consistently keep away from damaging contact.

That track record is clearly of appeal to a Milwaukee club that plays in a fairly hitter-friendly home park. The Brewers already have six quality starting pitchers. Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff headline the group, followed by Freddy Peralta and Aaron Ashby. Eric Lauer and Adrian Houser are quality options at the back end. Miley has started 285 of his 292 MLB appearances, though it’s possible Milwaukee prefers to deploy him in a more flexible swing role considering his lack of innings in 2022.

If the plan is for Miley to secure a season-opening rotation spot, that could free up general manager Matt Arnold and his front office to market Lauer or Houser in trade. The Brewers could look for another bat to incorporate into the right field and first base mix, and it’s possible they bring in a veteran infielder to lessen the workload for Luis Urías or rookie Brice Turang. Dealing one of their incumbent starters would be a way to bolster a lineup that was middle-of-the-pack last season.

It’s Milwaukee’s first significant dip into major league free agency this offseason. Miley’s relatively modest salary brings the Brewers payroll projection to approximately $119MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. Milwaukee opened last year with a player payroll just shy of $132MM, so there should still be room for Arnold and his group to build out the roster as they try to close the gap with the Cardinals at the top of the division.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported Miley and the Brewers were in agreement on a one-year, $4.5MM deal that could max out at $6MM. Bob Nightengale of USA Today was first to report Miley would receive a $3.5MM salary in 2023 and that the deal contained a $10MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout; Nightengale was also first with the specifics of the incentive structure and the assignment bonus.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Milwaukee Brewers Newsstand Transactions Wade Miley

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Liam Hendriks To Begin Treatment For Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma

By Mark Polishuk | January 8, 2023 at 11:24pm CDT

White Sox closer Liam Hendriks announced on his Instagram page tonight that he will be starting treatment Monday for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma.

“Hearing the word ’cancer’ came as a shock to my wife and I, as it does to millions of families each year.  However, I am resolved to embrace the fight and overcome this new challenge with the same determination I have used when facing other obstacles in my life,” Hendriks wrote.  “My treatment begins tomorrow, and I am confident that I will make a full recovery and be back on the mound as soon as possible.  I know with the support of my wife, my family, my teammates, and the Chicago White Sox organization, along with the treatment and care from my doctors, I will get through this.”

White Sox GM Rick Hahn also released a statement on behalf of the team: “Our thoughts and reactions at this time are for Liam the person, not Liam the baseball player.  I know the entire Chicago White Sox organization, our staff, his teammates, and certainly White Sox fans, will rally in support of Liam and Kristi during the coming months.  Knowing everyone involved, especially Liam, we are optimistic he will pitch again for the White Sox as soon as viable.  In the meantime, we all will do everything in our power to support our teammate and his family as they face this challenge, while also respecting their privacy.  We do not expect to have any updates on Liam’s playing status prior to Opening Day at the very earliest.”

Hendriks celebrates his 34th birthday in February, and the native of Perth, Australia is coming off his third All-Star season.  Beginning his big league career with the Twins in 2011, it took Hendriks until 2015 (as a member of the Blue Jays) to really break out, which kicked off a run of four solid but unspectacular seasons of bullpen work.  In 2019, however, Hendriks took things to another level, as he has emerged as one of the game’s best closers after posting a 2.26 ERA, 38.8% strikeout rate, and 5.1% walk rate over 239 innings since start of the 2019 campaign.

All three of Hendriks’ All-Star selections have come in that dominant four-year stretch, and it led to a big free agent payday during the 2020-21 offseason.  Hendriks is two seasons into a three-year, $54MM deal with the White Sox that includes a unique $15MM club option for 2024 that also carries a $15MM buyout (which would be covered in deferred payments if the Sox did decline the option).

Beyond his success on the field, Hendriks is also a widely popular player, beloved by teammates and fans alike.  Today’s news has already started an outpouring of support for Hendriks on social media, and we at MLB Trade Rumors join the rest of the baseball world in wishing him a full recovery.

Hahn’s statement provided some rough idea of a timeline for how long Hendriks might be sidelined, though obviously the situation is very fluid.  Pitching is naturally just about the last thing on Hendriks’ mind at the moment, and for the White Sox as well, simply getting their friend and teammate healthy is infinitely more important than roster impact.

There is no easy way to replace Hendriks in Chicago’s bullpen, as while Kendall Graveman is probably the likeliest candidate to step in as closer, bumping everyone up the depth chart leaves the White Sox relief corps thinner as a whole.  There had been some trade buzz surrounding Hendriks earlier this winter, as the Mets and other teams had interest in adding a high-end reliever, and there was some thought that the White Sox could move Hendriks (and his contract) as a way to address other roster needs without expanding the budget.

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Chicago White Sox Newsstand Liam Hendriks

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Phillies Acquire Gregory Soto From Tigers In Five-Player Deal

By Simon Hampton | January 7, 2023 at 1:30pm CDT

The Phillies have continued to strengthen their roster following their World Series defeat last year, acquiring left-handed reliever Gregory Soto and utilityman Kody Clemens in a trade with the Tigers. Utilityman Nick Maton, outfielder Matt Vierling and catcher Donny Sands are headed to Detroit in the other end of the deal. The two teams announced the deal this afternoon.

The deal adds another quality southpaw to Philadelphia’s bullpen, as Soto joins fellow lefty Matt Strahm in the relief corps plus another prominent new face in right-hander Craig Kimbrel. Between these bullpen additions and the signings of Trea Turner and Taijuan Walker, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is being typically aggressive as he looks to take the World Series finalist Phillies one step further in 2023.

Soto (who turns 28 in February) worked to a 3.28 ERA over 60 1/3 innings for the Tigers last season, striking out batters at a 22.8% clip against a 12.9% walk rate. In the process, he notched 30 saves for the team. The strikeout rate represented something of a dip for Soto, as it sat at 27.5% just a year prior.

Signed out of the Dominican Republic back in 2012, Soto came up through the Tigers’ system as a starting pitcher. He’d make seven starts for Detroit in his rookie year back in 2019, but was rocked to the tune of an 8.49 ERA and has been a reliever ever since. He’s found plenty of success in that role, working to a 3.57 ERA over 181 1/3 relief innings, including earning trips to the All Star game in 2021 and 2022.

Left-handed hitters hit just .225/.328/.277 against Soto, but perhaps most noteworthy is the fact he’s given up just one home run in his career to a left-handed hitter. While he handled the closing duties in Detroit, he’s joining a much stronger bullpen in Philadelphia so may see fewer ninth-inning opportunities, but in any event they’ve got an ideal late-innings arm to shut down any left-handed power threats late in the game.

Soto mixes a fastball which touches triple-digits with an 89 mph slider, as well as a very occasional changeup. As evidenced by his career 13.1% rate, walks have been the biggest issue for Soto during his career. Even with the below-average walk rate Soto has been a valuable relief arm, but if he can tighten up the free passes he has the stuff to blossom into an elite late-inning arm.

Soto has between three and four years of service time, so the Phillies will pay him a first year arbitration salary that Matt Swartz estimated to be $3.1MM. The Phillies will then control him via arbitration for the 2024 and ’25 seasons.

The Phillies pen now includes Kimbrel, Soto and Strahm, as well as Seranthony Dominguez, Jose Alvarado, Andrew Bellatti and Connor Brogdon. In Alvarado and Soto, they’ve now got two of the hardest throwing left-handers in the game, with both possessing the ability to reach 100mph.

They’ll also pick up Clemens, a utility infielder who got his first taste of the big leagues in 2022.  Clemens slashed just .145/.197/.308 with five home runs over 127 plate appearances for the Tigers in 2022. The 26-year-old did hit a much more robust .274/.327/.535 line at Triple-A.

He logged time at first, second and third base in 2022, as well as some time in left field. Though it was a small sample size, he did earn two Defensive Runs Saved for his work at first and third. While unlikely to be a regular in Philadelphia, Clemens comes with two minor league options remaining so should serve as depth/bench piece.

As for the return, Detroit picks up three players who were all on Philadelphia’s 40-man roster. Sands is a 26-year-old catcher who earned his first taste of the big leagues in 2022, appearing in three games for the Phillies. Acquired from the Yankees last winter, Sands made 57 appearances at Triple-A last year, slashing .309/.413/.428 with five home runs. It’s a strong slashline, but with J.T. Realmuto ahead of him Sands was never likely to get an extended look in the big leagues. The Tigers have Eric Haase and Jake Rogers as catching options, but Sands will join that mix and could be in line to serve as a backup.

Maton, 25, is a utility player who appeared in 35 games for the Phillies last year, slashing .250/.341/.514 with five home runs over 85 plate appearances. That was a solid follow-up to his rookie year in 2021, when he hit .256/.323/.385 over 131 plate appearances. He came through the Phillies system as a shortstop but bounced around the infield and outfield in the majors. Javier Baez is locked in at shortstop for the Tigers, but they don’t currently have an obvious option at third so Maton could see plenty of time there as the Tigers look to see if his strong showing in 2022 can be sustained over a full season.

Vierling, 26, wound up picking up 357 plate appearances for the Phillies last season, putting together a .246/.297/.351 line with six home runs. He logged 434 2/3 innings in center, earning -7 Defensive Runs Saved. Vierling graded out much better in a corner spot, earning 1 DRS over 175 innings in right. He also logged a handful of innings at first, second and third. He should compete for a bench spot in Detroit as a fourth outfielder.

While there’s no highly rated prospect going back to Detroit in the deal, all three players are ready to contribute to the major league club in 2023. For the Phillies, these three players would have found opportunities somewhat hard to come by in 2023 unless more injuries (beyond just Bryce Harper’s Tommy John surgery) hit, given the established nature of their contending roster. As such, it’s a solid move from Dombrowski to flip the trio for a player that immediately makes their bullpen stronger, plus Clemens helps replace some of the bench depth sent to the Tigers.

Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia first reported on Twitter that the Phillies and Tigers were working on a trade. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported on Twitter that the two sides were close on a deal involving the five players. Morosi was also first to report on Twitter that the two sides had agreed to the deal. 

Photo credit: USA TODAY Sports.

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Detroit Tigers Newsstand Philadelphia Phillies Transactions Donny Sands Gregory Soto Kody Clemens Matt Vierling Nick Maton

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Dodgers Designate Trevor Bauer For Assignment

By Anthony Franco | January 6, 2023 at 7:04pm CDT

The Dodgers have cut ties with Trevor Bauer. Los Angeles announced this evening he will no longer be part of the organization, shortly after Jeff Passan of ESPN reported (Twitter link) he was being designated for assignment.

“The Dodgers organization believes that allegations of sexual assault or domestic violence should be thoroughly investigated, with due process given to the accused,” the organization said in a statement. “From the beginning, we have cooperated fully with Major League Baseball’s investigation and strictly followed the process stipulated under MLB’s Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse policy. Two extensive reviews of all the available evidence in this case — one by Commissioner Manfred and another by a neutral arbitrator — concluded that Mr. Bauer’s actions warranted the longest ever active player suspension in our sport for violations of this policy. Now that this process has been completed, and after careful consideration, we have decided that he will no longer be part of our organization.”

Bauer released his own statement this evening, stating that Dodgers brass had suggested as recently as yesterday he’d remain on the team (relayed by Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times). “While we were unable to communicate throughout the administrative leave and arbitration process, my representatives spoke to Dodgers leadership immediately following the arbitration decision. Following two weeks of conversations around my return to the organization, I sat down with Dodgers leadership in Arizona yesterday who told me they wanted me to return and pitch for the team this year. While I am disappointed by the organization’s decision today, I appreciate the wealth of support I’ve received from the Dodgers clubhouse. I wish the players all the best and look forward to competing elsewhere.”

Bauer joined Los Angeles over the 2020-21 offseason on the heels of winning the NL Cy Young award with the Reds. He signed a three-year, $102MM guarantee that afforded him chances to opt out of the deal after each of the first two seasons. Bauer made 17 starts with a 2.59 ERA in his first season in L.A. before reports emerged that a California woman had filed for a restraining order and accused him of assaulting her during sex. He was promptly placed on paid administrative leave while the legal process played out, and he spent the remainder of the 2021 season on administrative leave by mutual agreement of MLB and the Players Association. Two Ohio women subsequently came forth with allegations that Bauer had assaulted them in prior years.

A judge denied the California woman’s request for a long-term restraining order in August 2021, finding he did not pose an ongoing threat to her safety. Bauer never faced criminal charges, with the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office declining to proceed with a criminal action after their investigation. “After a thorough review of the available evidence, including the civil restraining order proceedings, witness statements and the physical evidence, the People are unable to prove the relevant charges beyond a reasonable doubt,” the DA’s office said at the time.

Attention then turned to Major League Baseball’s investigation. Even in the absence of criminal charges, MLB is permitted to impose discipline if its investigation finds a player violated the joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse policy. The league did so last April, imposing a 324-game ban that went into effect from the date of the suspension. That would have kept Bauer out for the entire 2022-23 seasons (and a few weeks in 2024); Bauer immediately appealed, becoming the first player to appeal a suspension levied under the domestic violence policy.

The appellate process played out over the following eight months. As per the terms of the policy, the arbitration panel consisted of three individuals — one of whom was selected by the league, one selected by the Players Association, and one independent arbitrator approved by both parties. Two weeks ago, the panel announced its determination. The appellate group reduced Bauer’s suspension to 194 games, which had already been served. He was decreed immediately eligible for reinstatement. The Dodgers were given until tonight to reactivate him on their roster or cut him loose.

As the Dodgers mentioned in their statement, the panel found that Bauer had violated the Domestic Violence policy. His suspension was reduced but not overturned, and even the reduced suspension was the longest handed out to any player since the policy was introduced in August 2015. While the panel determined Bauer violated the policy, it judged MLB’s initial two-year ban to be excessive.

Suspensions under the domestic violence policy are unpaid. Bauer did not collect any salary between the date of his suspension and the end of the 2022 season. The panel also stripped him of his salary for the first 50 games of the 2023 season — a retroactive loss of salary for money he did collect while on paid administrative leave between 2021 and April ’22. After the first 50 games of the season are up, Bauer will be entitled to his remaining salary.

Bauer had been set to make $32MM this year, the final season of his contract. After accounting for the forfeited salary, he’ll be due around $22.5MM. Even with the Dodgers officially moving on, they’ll be on the hook for that money. Los Angeles’ projected payroll sits around $217MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. More meaningfully, that expenditure brings the Dodgers estimated luxury tax number within a rounding error of the base $233MM CBT threshold. Multiple reports in recent months have suggested the Dodgers would like to dip below the tax threshold this year, thereby resetting their tax bracket after two consecutive seasons of overages. Doing so at this point would require finding a way to shed salary and/or not taking on any notable additional expenditures this offseason or at the trade deadline.

As with any player designated for assignment, there’s now a seven-day window for the Dodgers to trade Bauer or place him on waivers. Bob Nightengale of USA Today unsurprisingly tweets the Dodgers didn’t find any trade interest over the past two weeks. The extremely likely outcome is the 31-year-old will be placed on release waivers between now and next Thursday. Any team claiming him would have to take on his lofty salary; that surely won’t happen, and Bauer will become a free agent if/when he officially clears waivers.

At that point, his camp can look for opportunities elsewhere. Any team that signs Bauer after he clears waivers would only be responsible for the $720K league minimum salary, with the Dodgers still on the hook for the rest of the deal. Whether any other team is willing to carry him on their roster remains to be seen.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Newsstand Transactions Trevor Bauer

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