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Cubs Sign Drew Smyly To Two-Year Deal

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Dec 24: The Cubs have officially announced the signing of Smyly. To make room on the 40-man roster, pitcher Erich Uelmen has been designated for assignment, according to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times.

Dec 22, 8:01pm: The deal also allows Smyly to opt out at the end of next season, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). Smyly will have to weigh a return trip to free agency against the $11MM remaining on the contract next offseason.

7:52pm: The Cubs are bringing back Drew Smyly, agreeing with the free agent starter on a two-year deal. It’s reportedly a $19MM guarantee for the Frontline client. Smyly will make successive salaries of $8MM and $8.5MM, and the contract contains at least a $2.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option for the 2025 campaign.

Smyly returns after spending the 2022 season in Chicago. It was technically his second stint as a Cub, as he’d previously been a member of the organization in 2018. He spent that entire season rehabbing from a previous Tommy John surgery, though, and the Cubs dealt him to the Rangers over the 2018-19 offseason. After three years elsewhere, he returned to Chicago last winter on a $5.25MM guarantee.

The left-hander had a decent showing in 2022, working to a 3.47 ERA through 22 starts. He lost a month in the middle of the year to a left oblique strain but otherwise stayed healthy and absorbed 106 1/3 innings. He struck out a career-worst 20.4% of opponents but only walked 5.8% of batters faced. Smyly held opponents to a meager 86.7 MPH average exit velocity and induced swinging strikes on a solid 12.4% of his offerings. That quality per-pitch swinging strike rate could portend a future uptick in strikeouts. Smyly has punched out 23.2% of opponents over the course of his career, although he’s seen his lowest marks in the last two years.

Smyly doesn’t have eye-popping velocity, and his below-average ground-ball numbers have contributed to home run troubles in prior years. The longball wasn’t much of an issue this past season, though. He absolutely stifled left-handed opponents to the tune of a .191/.277/.326 line with two homers allowed through 101 plate appearances. Righties gave him some more trouble, taking him deep 14 times and posting a .258/.301/.448 mark in 346 trips to the dish.

The 33-year-old has had some injury troubles throughout his career, including the aforementioned Tommy John procedure. He’s spent time on the injured list each year since 2016, failing to reach 130 innings in any of the past six seasons. Smyly is not a prototypical innings eater, but he’s pitched to a decent 3.96 ERA in 259 1/3 frames going back to the start of 2020.

That solid rate production clearly appeals to president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office. Smyly finished the 2022 season strong and earned a multi-year deal as a result, with the guarantee narrowly topping the $17MM contract Jordan Lyles received from the Royals this week. The starting pitching market generally has been quite strong, and Smyly continues that trend with a $9.5MM average annual value to slot at the back of the Chicago rotation.

The Cubs signed Jameson Taillon to a four-year deal earlier in the offseason. He’ll join Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele and presumably Smyly as locks for the season-opening starting staff. Kyle Hendricks figures to have a rotation job whenever he’s healthy, although his status is somewhat up in the air after his 2022 season was cut short by a shoulder issue. Players like Keegan Thompson, Hayden Wesneski, Caleb Kilian and Adrian Sampson could be in the mix throughout the season as depth options. Thompson held his own over 17 starts this past season, while Wesneski and Kilian are among the better pitching prospects in the Chicago organization.

Tacking on Smyly’s $8MM salary to the 2023 payroll ledger brings the team’s projected payroll around $179MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’re now around $107MM in guarantees for the ’24 campaign. Chicago isn’t quite back to the $200MM+ range they reached towards the end of the last decade, but they’re notably past the $140MM – 150MM range of the last two seasons. The deal adds $9.5MM to the club’s luxury tax ledger in both 2023-24; they’re now up to approximately $213MM in CBT spending for next season, $20MM shy of the $233MM base threshold.

Jesse Rogers of ESPN first reported the Cubs and Smyly were closing in on a deal. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the Cubs and Smyly had agreed to a two-year, $19MM contract and specified the financial breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Blue Jays Acquire Daulton Varsho From D-Backs For Gabriel Moreno, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

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The Blue Jays announced that they have acquired outfielder Daulton Varsho from the Diamondbacks. Going the other way will be catching prospect Gabriel Moreno and outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr..

For the Blue Jays, they’ve long been looking to add a left-handed complement to their right-handed heavy lineup. They’ve also been rumored all offseason to be willing to deal from their catching surplus in order to address other areas of their roster. With Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Moreno all jockeying for playing time, it seemed like they would use one of them to line up a deal with a catching-needy team. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, have drawn much trade interest this offseason on their multiple outfielders. Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy and Varsho are all left-handed and have various attributes, but it made for a logjam that many expected to be cleared via trade. Given those factors, the two teams have been frequently made for speculative trade partners, which has come to fruition with this deal.

Varsho, 26, was a top 100 prospect in the minors and debuted for the Diamondbacks in 2020. Though he was primarily a catcher, his natural athleticism has pushed him into more of an outfield role recently. It was reported towards the end of the 2022 campaign that the Diamondbacks were so impressed by his outfield work that they were planning to keep him there going forward. That was a fairly sensible conclusion to draw given his excellent defensive grades on the grass. He was given a +19 from Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield this year, along with an 18.8 from Ultimate Zone Rating and 17 Outs Above Average. All three of those figures were tops among all MLB outfielders this year, with the DRS tally tied with Michael A. Taylor. Varsho has seen time at all three outfield positions in his time in the big leagues thus far, giving the Jays plenty of flexibility in how he fits into their alignments.

The Blue Jays have largely been focused on run prevention this offseason, adding Chris Bassitt to their rotation, Erik Swanson to their bullpen and defensive specialist Kevin Kiermaier to their outfield. Now with Varsho, they’ve continued down that run prevention path by adding the best defensive outfielder of 2022. Varsho isn’t merely limited to being a glove-only contributor, however. He hit 27 home runs this year and stole 16 bases. He finished the season with a .235/.302/.443 batting line, good enough for a wRC+ of 106, indicating he was 6% above league average. Those contributions put together amounted to 4.6 wins above replacement for the year, per the calculations of FanGraphs.

This move, and their other moves this offseason, have resulted in righties Gurriel and Teoscar Hernández being swapped out for lefties Kiermaier and Varsho. Gurriel and Hernandez are more productive at the plate but both are generally regarded as subpar defenders, while Kiermaier and Varsho are generally the inverse, though Varsho took a big step forward at the plate this year. Varsho and Kiermaier should slot into an outfield mix that also includes George Springer and Whit Merrifield. While last year’s alignment saw Springer as the top defensive option, flanked by two bat-first teammates, he now seems like the third best defender in Toronto’s outfield mix.

For the Diamondbacks, they are acquiring one of the top prospects in the sport, regardless of position, but certainly one of the top catching prospects. Moreno, 23 in February, is considered the No. 3 prospect in the game by both Baseball America and FanGraphs. He made his MLB debut in 2022 and carried himself well in over his first 73 plate appearances, hitting .319/.356/.377 for a wRC+ of 113. Spending most of the year in Triple-A, he hit .315/.386/.420 for a wRC+ of 120. Though the power part of his game could be lacking, all reports point to him being an excellent defender who has keen bat-to-ball skills. That’s borne out by his 16.9% strikeout rate in Triple-A this year and 11% rate in his MLB debut.

The club has used Carson Kelly, 28, as its primary catcher over the past four seasons, who has proved inconsistent in that time. His 2019 and 2021 seasons were both above average at the plate, as he hit double-digit home runs and walk rates, leading to a wRC+ of 107 in the former and 103 in the latter. However, his 2020 and 2022 seasons were on the low side, with the walks and the power both dipping. He posted a wRC+ of 70 in 2020 and just 73 in 2022. Defensively, he’s generally considered around average, with DRS have graded him at exactly zero thus far in his career.

Kelly still has two years of arbitration control remaining and likely has the catching job for now, given Moreno’s youth and limited experience. Moreno will also require some time to get to know Arizona’s pitching staff. But as Moreno continues to develop, it’s possible that Kelly will get squeezed out in time and become a trade chip himself before he reaches the open market.

As they subtract from their multitude of left-handed hitting outfielders, the Diamondbacks are bringing in a right-hander for more balance in Gurriel. The 29-year-old has spent the past five seasons with the Jays and has a career batting line of .285/.329/.468 and a wRC+ of 115. He doesn’t come with a noticeable platoon split, as he has an even 115 wRC+ against both righties and lefties. That makes him perfectly capable of playing every day for the Snakes. He is in his final year of control before becoming a free agent, which doesn’t make him a long-term solution in the desert, but he should give the club some time to continue to evaluate young players like Carroll and Thomas. If those younger players take steps forward and command everyday jobs and/or the Diamondbacks aren’t in contention in the middle of 2023, Gurriel would make for an intriguing trade candidate.

Defensively, Gurriel broke in as an infielder but was moved to left field in 2019 and has largely been there since, apart from the occasional turn at first base. Reviews on his glovework are mixed, as he has a +4 in the outfield from DRS, but a -4.7 from UZR and a -16 OAA. That limits his contributions somewhat but his bat has been above average in each of his five seasons thus far.

Financially, the Jays will be saving a bit of money on this deal as Gurriel will be making $5.4MM in 2023, his final year before free agency. Varsho, meanwhile, has four years of control remaining but has qualified for arbitration this winter as a Super Two player. He just squeaked in on that one, as his two years and 128 days of service time are an exact match for this year’s cutoff. He’s projected for a salary of $2.8MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz and will get three further arb raises through 2026. Moreno, meanwhile, has yet to reach arbitration with just a couple of months of time in the big leagues thus far, giving the Diamondbacks six further years of control over his services.

The slight financial difference won’t matter much to the Diamondbacks but could have ramifications for the Jays. Roster Resource currently pegs the club’s competitive balance tax figure as just a hair over the lowest luxury tax threshold of $233MM. Those numbers are unofficial and will surely change with future moves throughout the offseason and during the actual season. The arbitration salaries are also just estimates and will have an impact on the tally once they are cemented. But if the Jays continue to hover right around the luxury tax line, the small savings could determine which side of that line they finish on.

In the end, both clubs addressed their needs by dealing from positions of strength. The Jays acquired an all-around player in Varsho who can help them this year and in the future. In order to do so, they’ve subtracted from their prospect capital and catching surplus, as well as dealing an impending free agent in Gurriel. For the Diamondbacks, they’ve sent out a solid contributor but should still have a great outfield without him, and they’ve also loaded their farm for future success. They now have four of the top 20 prospects in baseball, with Moreno at #3 at Baseball America, followed by Carroll at #5, shortstop Jordan Lawlar at #11 and outfielder Druw Jones at #19.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported that the Jays were close to landing Varsho. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported a deal was in place that involved Varsho and Moreno. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first had the involvement of Gurriel.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Reds Designate Mike Moustakas, Sign Curt Casali

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The Reds announced that they have signed catcher Curt Casali to a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2024. In a corresponding move, infielder Mike Moustakas was designated for assignment. Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports that Casali will be guaranteed $3.25MM, which takes the form of a $2.5MM salary and a $750K buyout on the option. There’s also a $250K assignment bonus to be paid to him in the event he’s traded. Casali is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council.

Moustakas, 34, signed a four-year, $64MM deal with the Reds going into the 2020 season. At the time, he was coming off a five-year stretch with the Royals and Brewers where he hit 130 home runs and produced a batting line of .264/.325/.491. That amounted to a 111 wRC+, indicating he was 11% better than league average in that time. He had also diversified his defensive abilities, playing 47 games at second base with the Brewers in 2019 after being a primary third baseman prior to that.

The first season of the deal went fine enough, as Moustakas hit .230/.331/.468 for a wRC+ of 105. However, the past two seasons have been disappointing, with Moustakas battling various injuries, including a heel contusion and a calf strain, and struggling to produce when on the field. He played just 62 games in 2021 and 78 in 2022, hitting .211/.289/.356 for a wRC+ of 73.

Though Moustakas has one year remaining on his deal, it seems the Reds weren’t interested in letting him play it out. Over the past few years, they’ve seen Jonathan India take over the second base job and prospect Spencer Steer seems ready for an extended audition at third. Moustakas has also played a bit of first base, but the Reds have Joey Votto there and also added Wil Myers into the mix by signing him today. Catcher Tyler Stephenson could also factor in with the club now having three backstops. More on that below.

The Reds will now have a week to work out a trade or pass Moustakas through waivers but it’s unlikely they will find a deal. Moustakas is still owed $22MM in the form of an $18MM salary and a $4MM buyout on a club option for 2024. Given that he’s been injured and/or underperforming for a couple of years now, no team will want to take that on. The Reds could theoretically offer a prospect in a trade to sweeten the deal, but it wouldn’t make much sense to do that as it would merely subtract young talent from the rebuilding club. The most likely scenario is that Moustakas is released and becomes a free agent. Any team could then be able to sign him and pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on their active roster, with that amount being subtracted from what the Reds pay.

As for Casali, 34, he’s a perfectly serviceable big league catcher, though he’s never really been a club’s primary option. Though he has 462 career games played, he’s never tallied more than 84 in any individual season. He’s generally been a strong defender behind the plate, having tallied 16 Defensive Runs Saved in his career and a slightly above-average mark in terms of framing. He’s not a liability at the plate either, with a career batting line of .223/.316/.392. That amounts to a wRC+ of 92, which is 8% below league average overall but roughly average for a catcher. His 27.8% strikeout rate is definitely on the high side but he also has drawn walks at a strong 10.7% rate. He’s also drawn interest from the Giants and Cubs this winter but will instead go to Cincinnati, where he spent the 2018-2020 seasons.

Casali is the second catcher signed by the Reds this offseason, as they’ve also added Luke Maile earlier. Those two will join Tyler Stephenson to give the club a three-headed catching corps. Stephenson seemed to emerge as the club’s catcher of the future with a 2021 breakout that saw him hit .286/.366/.431 for a wRC+ of 110 along with solid defensive numbers. However, he was limited to just 50 games in 2022 due to a concussion, a broken thumb and a broken clavicle. He’s also seen some time at first base and could theoretically do that more this year, yielding some of the catching time to Casali and Maile while keeping his bat in the lineup.

The club’s payroll is now up to $81MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource. That’s still well shy of their $114MM figure from Opening Day 2022, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, though the rebuilding club might not add much more. C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic relays word from general manager Nick Krall, who says they’d “have to great creative” to add more money.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Trevor Bauer’s Suspension Reduced To 194 Games; Bauer Reinstated, Effective Immediately

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Major League Baseball announced Thursday night that the 324-game suspension imposed on Trevor Bauer has been reduced to 194 games on appeal. He has already served the entirety of that ban. He’ll be reinstated, effective immediately.

“Today, the neutral arbitrator selected by MLB and the MLBPA affirmed that Trevor Bauer violated Major League Baseball’s Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy,” the league said in a statement. “After an exhaustive review of the available evidence the neutral arbitrator upheld an unpaid suspension of 194 games.  As part of the decision, the arbitrator reinstated Mr. Bauer effectively immediately, with a loss of pay covering the 144 games he was suspended during the 2022 season. In addition, the arbitrator docked Bauer’s salary for the first 50 games of the 2023 season (i.e., the period covering March 30, 2023 to May 23, 2023).  While we believe a longer suspension was warranted, MLB will abide by the neutral arbitrator’s decision, which upholds baseball’s longest-ever active player suspension for sexual assault or domestic violence.

We understand this process was difficult for the witnesses involved and we thank them for their participation.  Due to the collectively bargained confidentiality provisions of the joint program, we are unable to provide further details at this time.”

A California woman filed a civil action accusing Bauer of assaulting her during sex, and Major League Baseball placed him on administrative leave when those allegations became public in July 2021. He spent the remainder of that season on paid administrative leave by mutual agreement of MLB and the Players Association while the league conducted an investigation. Two Ohio women later came forth with allegations that Bauer had assaulted them in prior years.

The California woman filed for a long-term restraining order against Bauer. A judge denied that request in August 2021, finding he did not pose an ongoing threat to her safety. Bauer never faced criminal charges, with the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office declining to proceed with a criminal action after their investigation. “After a thorough review of the available evidence, including the civil restraining order proceedings, witness statements and the physical evidence, the People are unable to prove the relevant charges beyond a reasonable doubt,” the DA’s office said at the time.

Even in the absence of criminal charges, MLB is permitted to impose discipline if its investigation finds a player violated the joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse policy. The league did so in April, imposing a 324-game ban that went into effect from the date of the suspension. That would have kept Bauer out for the entire 2022-23 seasons (and a few weeks in 2024); Bauer immediately appealed, becoming the first player to appeal a domestic violence suspension.

The appellate process has played out over the past eight months. As per the terms of the policy, the panel consisted of three individuals — one of whom was selected by the league, one selected by the Players Association, and one independent arbitrator approved by both parties.

As the league statement indicates, the panel found that Bauer did violate the Domestic Violence policy. His missed time from the second half of 2021 and the entire ’22 campaign was upheld. Bauer was not paid during the 2022 season after the suspension was announced, and he will forfeit his salary for that season. He will also lose the salary for the first 50 games of next season, as that represents retroactive payment for salary he collected while not playing during his time on administrative leave from July 2021 to April 2022.

However, the panel also determined MLB’s suspension to be excessive and knocked off 130 games from the ban. Based on the number of games he’s already missed, he’ll be eligible to return to the field at the opening of next season.

Bauer has been on the restricted list and hasn’t counted against the Dodgers 40-man roster since first landing on administrative leave. Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets the team will have until January 6 to either reinstate him to the roster or release him. Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets the Dodgers are expected to release Bauer, though the team has yet to comment on the matter.

Even if the Dodgers cut Bauer loose, it’s a meaningful development for the organization from a financial perspective. Los Angeles will owe him his 2023 salary whether they keep him on the roster or not. They won’t have to pay him for the first 50 games of the season, but they’ll remain on the hook for the rest of his $32MM salary. He’ll still be owed approximately $22.12MM after accounting for his docked pay. Perhaps more meaningfully, that money now goes back onto the Dodgers’ luxury tax ledger for the 2023 campaign. As calculated by Roster Resource, Los Angeles’ CBT number jumps to approximately $232MM. That’s just $1MM below next year’s $233MM base tax threshold.

Reporting in recent weeks had suggested the Dodgers were reluctant to spend aggressively this winter, in part due to a desire to maintain flexibility under the CBT threshold in case Bauer’s suspension were reduced. With that coming into play, they’ll have virtually no financial breathing room without shedding salary unless they’re willing to pay the luxury tax for a third straight season.

Angels Sign Brandon Drury To Two-Year Deal

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DECEMBER 22: Drury’s contract is now official. The Angels announced the move on Thursday evening.

DECEMBER 20: The Angels have continued their active offseason, agreeing to a two-year contract with free agent infielder Brandon Drury. The deal reportedly guarantees the Wasserman client $17MM.

Drury earns the first multi-year guarantee of his career after a personal-best season. He looked to have settled into journeyman territory in recent years. After a few seasons playing a semi-regular role with the Diamondbacks, Drury suited up with all of the Yankees, Blue Jays and Mets from 2018-21. He hit just .211/.254/.360 in 137 games with Toronto from 2019-20, resulting in his outright at the end of that season. Drury played well in a limited look for the Mets the next year, but New York designated him for assignment at year’s end.

The Oregon native signed a minor league contract with the Reds shortly after the lockout. While the move generated little fanfare at the time, it might’ve been the best non-roster pact signed all offseason. Drury broke camp with the big league club and almost immediately played his way into everyday reps. He connected on 20 home runs in 92 games as a Red, posting a cumulative .274/.335/.520 line across 385 plate appearances.

While Cincinnati struck gold on their minor league arrangement with Drury, their 2022 season on the whole was a disaster. With the team well out of contention by the deadline, the impending free agent became one of the sport’s most obvious trade candidates. Cincinnati dealt Drury to the Padres for infield prospect Victor Acosta on deadline day. He played the final couple months in San Diego, offering solid but not spectacular production.

Drury connected on a grand slam in his first at-bat as a Padre, but his work from that point forward was roughly average. While connected on eight homers in 185 trips to the dish, that came with a meager 4.9% walk rate and a .290 on-base percentage. It was a similar story in the postseason, with Drury reaching base in just eight of 31 trips to the plate.

Relatively slow finish aside, Drury had an impressive year overall. He picked up 28 homers (plus one more in the postseason), managing a .263/.320/.492 line in 568 plate appearances. Cincinnati’s very hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park certainly played to his strength, as Drury posted a .298/.354/.561 mark in 223 trips to the plate at that venue. His .240/.299/.447 line in 345 plate appearances in all other parks was closer to average, but the Angels will take a shot on him bringing an above-average bat to Orange County.

Drury has an aggressive offensive approach and rarely walks, drawing free passes just 6.7% of the time this past season. He makes contact at an above-average clip and has solid power from the right-handed batter’s box, though. Drury’s 42.2% hard contact rate was around seven percentage points higher than the league mark. He put the bat on the ball on 81.2% of his swings this year, around five points better than average. This year’s 28-homer showing is an outlier compared to the rest of his career, but he’s topped 15 longballs on two other occasions while hitting north of .260 in three years.

The 30-year-old has some defensive flexibility. He’s played mostly second and third base throughout his big league career, logging around 1500 innings at both spots. Public metrics have been mixed on his work, though both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast feel he’s better suited at the keystone than at the hot corner. Drury isn’t likely to win a Gold Glove, but he’s rated as a capable defender at both positions. He also has a decent amount of experience at first base and in the corner outfield, though he’s not a regular option in center field or at shortstop.

The Halos have focused on upgrading their roster with solid but not elite additions, attacking the lack of depth that has burned them repeatedly in recent seasons. They landed the final years of arbitration control over Gio Urshela and Hunter Renfroe via trade and inked Tyler Anderson and Carlos Estévez to free agent deals. Drury now looks as if he’ll join that mix, serving a similar role to Urshela as a righty-swinging infielder who can bounce around the diamond.

Second base seems likely to be Drury’s primary home. Playing him there regularly could push David Fletcher and/or Luis Rengifo more frequently to shortstop, where the Angels got nothing offensively this past season. Urshela can also occasionally factor in at shortstop while serving as injury insurance for Anthony Rendon at third base. Both players offer potential platoon complements at first base to the lefty-swinging Jared Walsh, as well.

There’s not a whole lot locked in around Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, Taylor Ward and Renfroe in the everyday lineup. General manager Perry Minasian and his group have worked hard to bring in better offensive options for manager Phil Nevin to move around the diamond in 2023, and the coaching staff has a few more weapons at their disposal than they had this past season.

They’ve kept those investments to relatively short terms, with Anderson’s three-year pact standing as the longest of their offseason commitments. There was plenty of uncertainty hanging over the organization with owner Arte Moreno exploring a sale of the franchise, but the front office has at least had plenty of leeway to make notable short-term commitments. Drury’s contract falls right in line with MLBTR’s prediction of two years and $18MM.

The specific financial breakdown has yet to be reported, but an even salary distribution would push the club’s payroll projection around $206MM, per Roster Resource. They’ll easily top this past season’s $189MM franchise-record Opening Day figure as they seek to compete with the defending World Series champion Astros, Mariners and upstart Rangers in the AL West. Regardless of the financial distribution, the deal will count for $8.5MM against the club’s luxury tax ledger. That’s suddenly a relevant consideration for the Halos, with Roster Resource projecting them for a CBT number around $220MM. That’s $13MM shy of the $233MM base tax threshold.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Angels and Drury were in agreement on a two-year, $17MM contract.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Carlos Correa Taking Physical With Mets Today

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Carlos Correa is undergoing his physical with the Mets today, agent Scott Boras announced to reporters (including Lindsey Adler of the Wall Street Journal). According to Boras, the Mets are expected to take 24-48 hours to review the results (relayed by Anthony DiComo of MLB.com).

Under normal circumstances, a free agent who has agreed to terms with a team undergoing a physical would hardly be worth noting. In most cases, agreements are reported on before a deal is made official, with the physical a rubber stamp on the way to the official announcement. Of course, the Correa situation has been anything but normal. He agreed to a 13-year, $350MM deal — pending a physical — with the Giants on December 13. That was scuttled on Monday evening when the Giants found something in their examination of Correa that gave them pause. They reportedly wanted more time to look into the medicals but Boras quickly pivoted and secured a new deal with the Mets for 12 years and $315MM. It has occasionally happened before that deals have been scuttled by medicals but never with a player or contract of this magnitude.

The Giants are restricted by HIPAA laws from providing clear answers about the precise nature of the injury. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi released a very generic statement on the matter yesterday: “While we are prohibited from disclosing confidential medical information, as Scott Boras stated publicly, there was a difference of opinion over the results of Carlos’ physical examination. We wish Carlos the best.”

Various reports over the past 24 hours have indicated the Giants raised concerns regarded Correa’s right leg. As a prospect in the Astros organization, a then 19-year-old Correa fractured his right fibula while playing in High-A in June 2014. The injury required surgery and cost him the remainder of that season. Last night, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic wrote about the dilemma and called San Francisco’s concern “pretty obvious” while linking to a 2014 Houston Chronicle story about the fibula fracture.

Jeff Passan of ESPN also indicates the right leg was the issue as part of a wider-ranging piece on the bizarre situation. According to Passan, San Francisco asked Correa’s camp for time to evaluate the issue after identifying their concerns in the physical on Monday night. The team postponed the press conference they’d scheduled Tuesday morning, one clearly designed to formally introduce Correa as a Giant after he signed his contract. That afternoon, the sides reengaged over the phone and the Giants informed Boras they weren’t prepared to keep their 13-year, $350MM offer on the table, Passan writes. San Francisco may have been willing to renegotiate a lower deal, according to Passan, but the decision not to abide by the originally agreed upon terms freed Correa’s camp to explore other opportunities.

In the hours after the Giants deal fell apart, Boras and his staff reached out to both the Mets and Twins. Last night, Andy McCullough, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic reported that Correa’s camp had been in touch with Minnesota before agreeing to terms with the Mets. The Twins, Correa’s incumbent team, had put forth a ten-year, $285MM offer earlier in the offseason. According to both The Athletic and ESPN, Minnesota expressed reluctance to move past that proposal on Tuesday evening — at least not without more time to evaluate the concerns raised by the Giants in their exam.

Not long after, Correa and the Mets hammered out the agreement. Both The Athletic and ESPN characterize negotiations as fairly direct between Boras, New York owner Steve Cohen and Mets general manager Billy Eppler. By the middle of the night, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the sides were in agreement on their 12-year pact. According to McCullough, Rosenthal and Sammon, Mets manager Buck Showalter and numerous other team officials weren’t aware of the extent of negotiations, learning when they woke up Wednesday morning about the agreement.

That’s all subject to the Mets physical evaluation, of course. However, there doesn’t seem to be much concern within the New York organization about Correa potentially failing a second physical. Cohen discussed the agreement on the record with Heyman; as Andy Martino of SNY wrote yesterday, that’d open the Mets up for a potential grievance if they back out of the deal over concerns about the medicals.

Correa’s camp, predictably, has denied there’s reason for concern. “There is nothing with him that is currently any sort of medical issue,” Boras said this morning, per DiComo. The agent added the Giants were trying to use a “crystal ball” to predict Correa’s long-term health (via Laura Albanese of Newsday).

The right leg that apparently gave the Giants pause has never sent Correa to the injured list as a major leaguer. He missed the second half of the 2014 minor league season recovering from surgery but was back on the field at the start of the following campaign. Correa has had a few injured list stints in the majors, missing time between 2017-19 with a torn ligament in his left thumb, back soreness (twice) and a rib fracture. He also lost a bit of time this past season after bruising his right middle finger. Since making his MLB debut, Correa hasn’t had any IL stints related to his lower half. However, Passan writes that San Francisco’s medical professionals raised concerns about the long-term stability of his right leg, fearing he could quickly lose the lateral mobility that plays such a key role in his defensive projection.

It’s worth pointing out that there is some precedent for the Mets similarly striking down a deal with a player, just as the Giants have done with Correa this week. The Mets selected Kumar Rocker, also represented by Boras, 10th overall in the 2021 draft and agreed to a $6MM signing bonus until they grew concerned by something in his physical and the deal fell apart. Backing out of a $6MM bonus for a draftee and a $315MM agreement with a superstar are two different things, however, and Cohen’s on-record discussions of the Correa agreement reiterate the owner’s confidence in the exam going without issue.

It has been a rollercoaster for Correa over the past two years, having reached free agency for the first time after the 2021 season. He went into the open market seeking a deal of ten-plus years in length and over $300MM but didn’t find one before the sport went into a lockout in December. During that lockout, he fired his representatives and hired Boras. After the lockout, he still didn’t find the megadeal he was looking for, but settled on a three-year contract with Minnesota that paid him a huge $35.1MM annual salary and allowed him to opt out after each season.

After another solid performance in 2022, he returned to the open market and seemed to finally land the deal he wanted with San Francisco. That’s gone but he secured another within hours from the Mets. There’s one step to go, perhaps the most anticipated physical examination in baseball history.

Cubs Sign Tucker Barnhart To Two-Year Deal

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The Cubs and catcher Tucker Barnhart are in agreement on a two-year deal, though the second year is a player option. He’ll be guaranteed $6.5MM but escalators could push his earnings to $9.5MM. The deal is pending a physical. Barnhart is represented by the Ballengee Group.

The catching situation in Wrigley has been in flux for some time, despite the fact that they’ve had one of the best backstops in the league for the past seven seasons in Willson Contreras. The club leaned into a rebuild in 2021, trading away Anthony Rizzo, Javier Báez and Kris Bryant, among others. Contreras stayed at that time as he still was under control for 2022, but a trade still seemed inevitable. That feeling only increased when the club signed Yan Gomes to a two-year deal going into the season.

Curiously, a deal never came together, though it was later reported that they had a trade lined up with the Astros before Houston owner Jim Crane scuttled the deal. Contreras eventually turned down a qualifying offer from the Cubs and signed with the Cardinals. That will net the Cubs an extra pick in the upcoming draft but it left them a bit thin behind the plate.

Gomes is still under contract for one more year but he’s now 35 years old and coming off a poor year at the plate. He hit .235/.260/.365 in 2022 for a wRC+ of 73, indicating he was 27% below league average. The only other catchers on the 40-man roster are P.J. Higgins, who is more of a utility player than can catch if needed, and Miguel Amaya, who has yet to reach Triple-A. Given those options, catcher was a natural target for the Cubs, who were also connected to Christian Vázquez, Omar Narváez, Curt Casali and Roberto Perez at times this offseason.

Barnhart, 32 next month, should provide the Cubs with a fairly stable profile. He’s rarely been exceptional or awful, on either side of the ball. He’s hit .245/.320/.360 in his career for a wRC+ of 80. That indicates he’s been 20% below league average overall, but catchers generally are less potent at the plate than their peers. The league average catcher posted a wRC+ of 89 in 2022. Barnhart has never posted a wRC+ higher than 90 but he’s also never finished below 63, apart from his brief debut in 2014. That 63, however, was just this past season with Detroit, when he batted .221/.287/.267.

On the glove side, Barnhart has 12 DRS for his career. FanGraphs has graded his framing as poor on the whole, but it bottomed out in 2018 and was above-average in next three seasons before dipping just below in 2022. Although defensive metrics don’t paint him as a lights-out defender, Barnhart has won a pair of Gold Gloves, including in 2017 when he nabbed a league-leading 44% of runners who attempted to swipe a base on his watch. He also received interest from the Reds, Pirates and Astros this offseason but will join the Cubs, returning the National Central where he spent many years as a Red.

The Cubs have been fairly aggressive this winter, signing Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, Jameson Taillon, Brad Boxberger and now Barnhart. That brings the club’s payroll up to $172MM, per Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax figure of $206MM. That payroll is already a sizeable increase over last year’s $143MM figure, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, though they’ve been up as high as $203MM in the past. It’s unknown how much more the club plans on spending, but it’s possible there’s more there to work with. They’re also more than $20MM shy of the luxury tax threshold, which is $233MM.

Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic first reported that the Cubs and Barnhart were closing in on a deal. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported that an agreement was in place. Joel Sherman of The New York Post first reported the one-year plus a player option framework. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the financials.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Release Eric Hosmer

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December 22: As expected, Hosmer has been released, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.

December 16: The Red Sox have acquired right-hander Wyatt Mills from the Royals in exchange for minor league righty Jacob Wallace and opened a spot on the roster by designating first baseman Eric Hosmer for assignment, per a team announcement.

Hosmer came to the Sox in a deadline deal just a few months ago. The Padres signed him to an eight-year, $144MM contract going into 2018, a deal that most observers considered an overpay from the moment it was announced. Hosmer’s production dipped thereafter, which only added to the albatross nature of the deal.

In 2017, his last year with the Royals, Hosmer hit .318/.385/.498 for a wRC+ of 135, indicating that he was 35% better than league average. But in his first season as a Padre, he produced a line of .253/.322/.398 for a wRC+ of 95. Apart from a surge in the shortened 2020 campaign, he’s been around league average in each season and frequently mentioned in trade rumors with San Diego hoping to get rid of him. As the deadline approached this past summer, Hosmer was originally included in the blockbuster deal that was to send Juan Soto and Josh Bell to San Diego. However, Hosmer had a limited no-trade clause that included the Nationals, allowing him to veto the deal. Instead, Luke Voit was sent to Washington in his place, but the Padres then quickly dealt Hosmer to the Red Sox, who were not on his no-trade list.

As part of that deal, the Red Sox would only have to pay Hosmer the league minimum salary, with the Padres remaining on the hook for the rest of it. With this move just a few months later, it seems the trade was more about the young players involved, as Boston sent pitching prospect Jay Groome to the Padres but received a couple prospects as well in Corey Rosier and Max Ferguson. It’s also possible that the club viewed Hosmer as a bit of a safety net at first base, where Bobby Dalbec had been struggling and prospect Triston Casas had yet to reach the majors. Casas was called up in September and launched five home runs down the stretch as well as walking in 20% of his plate appearances, leading to a batting line of .197/.358/.408, wRC+ of 120. Perhaps that debut gave them enough confidence to proceed without Hosmer.

Whatever the motivation, Hosmer’s time in Boston seems likely to end after just 14 games. The club will have one week to trade him or put him on waivers, though a trade will be difficult to arrange. As part of Hosmer’s contract, he gained a full no-trade clause after being dealt by the Padres. It’s also possible that a team might have interest in claiming Hosmer off release waivers, as his minimal salary would create a no-risk scenario for the claiming club. However, players on release waivers are allowed to reject claims and elect free agency, which likely means no team would bother putting in a claim. It seems the most likely scenario is that Hosmer ends up released and returns to the open market.

Though he hasn’t produced more than 0.8 fWAR in any season since 2017, it’s likely some teams that need help at first base or designated hitter would have some interest. The Padres are on the hook for the $39MM owed to Hosmer over the next three years and any team that signs him would only have to pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Padres pay.

Over the last three seasons, his batting line is .271/.335/.407 for a wRC+ of 107, or 7% above league average. That doesn’t lead to a lot of value overall as he is generally graded as a poor defender, but it’s possible he could find a bit of uptick at the plate next year. The upcoming rules on defensive shifts are expected to primarily benefit left-handed hitters like Hosmer, as teams stack the right side of the infield with defenders. Hosmer’s worst trait as a hitter is his incredibly high ground ball tendencies, as his career rate is 54.5%. For reference, this year’s league average as 42.9%.

Many of the top first baseman from this winter’s free agent class have already been signed, with José Abreu, Josh Bell and Anthony Rizzo off the board. For clubs still looking for upgrades there, Hosmer will likely join the remaining options, such as Trey Mancini, Brandon Drury, Matt Carpenter, Wil Myers and Brandon Belt.

As for the other players involved in today’s announcement, Mills, 28 next month, was designated for assignment by the Royals when they signed Ryan Yarbrough earlier this week. The Royals had only acquired him a few months earlier as part of the Carlos Santana trade. He tossed 29 1/3 innings for the Royals with a 4.60 ERA, but the Red Sox are likely more interested in his minor league numbers. In 33 2/3 Triple-A innings this year, he posted a 2.14 ERA while striking out 29.9% of batters faced, though he also walked 12.7% of them. He still has an option year remaining, giving them an intriguing depth option with roster flexibility.

Wallace, 24, was drafted by the Rockies but came to the Red Sox as the player to be named later in the Kevin Pillar trade. He spent this year in Double-A, tossing 56 2/3 innings with a 3.81 ERA and 30.4% strikeout rate, though a huge 19.6% walk rate.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Reds Sign Wil Myers To One-Year Deal

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The Reds announced they have signed first baseman/outfielder Wil Myers to a one-year contract with a mutual option for 2024. Myers will be guaranteed $7.5MM on the deal, which comes in the form of a $6MM salary in 2023 along with a $1.5MM buyout on the option. He can earn a further $1.5MM of incentives based on playing time and will receive an extra $500K if he’s traded, potentially earning $9.5MM by season’s end. Myers is represented by CAA Sports.

Myers, 32, was originally drafted by the Royals but was traded to the Rays before he made it to the majors. He was considered one of the best prospects in the league at that time, with Baseball America ranking him fourth overall going into the 2013 season. Myers would go on to make his MLB debut with Tampa that year, posting a batting line of .293/.354/.478. That production was 29% above average, by measure of wRC+. He was worth 2.3 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs and won the American League Rookie of the Year award.

Despite his prospect status and exciting debut, Myers has since settled in as more of a decent regular than a true star. He endured a sophomore slump in 2014, hitting just .222/.294/.320 for a wRC+ of 76. After that season, Myers was traded to the Padres and bounced back. Injuries limited him to just 60 games in 2015, but his 2016 was excellent. He hit 28 home runs and stole 28 bases, finishing the year with a batting line of .259/.336/.461 and a wRC+ of 114. That resulted in a 3.4 fWAR tally and encouraged the Padres to give Myers a six-year, $83MM extension.

Unfortunately for the Padres, that 2016 campaign now stands out as Myers’ best. He’s still been a valuable player, but hasn’t topped 2.0 fWAR in any subsequent season. Despite still being a decent contributor, his contract eventually came to be seen as an albatross due to its back-loaded nature. Myers got a $15MM signing bonus but then modest salaries of $2MM in 2017 and 2018, followed by $3MM in 2019, but then jumping to $20MM for each of the last three years of the deal. The club reportedly made many attempts to trade Myers in the latter half of the deal but never succeeded.

Over the six years of that contract, Myers hit 98 home runs and stole 61 bases. He struck out in 29.2% of his plate appearances but also walked at a healthy 9.8% rate. In the end, he produced a combined batting line of .252/.327/.451 for a wRC+ of 109, indicating he was 9% better than the league average hitter in that timeframe. He should be able to provide the Reds with a solid veteran bat that might also play up in their hitter-friendly ballpark.

Defensively, Myers played exclusively at first base in 2017 but has spent most of his time in the outfield in the five seasons since. Advanced metrics are split on his work, though he generally grades out as being about average as a corner outfielder and a bit subpar at first base. Myers’ flexibility in that regard is likely appealing to a Reds’ team that has uncertainty in those areas. Joey Votto has been the club’s first baseman for well over a decade now, but he’s now 39 years old, turning 40 in September. He also underwent season-ending rotator cuff surgery in August, which comes with an estimated six-month recovery time. That should allow him to return before Opening Day, but Myers gives them an experienced fallback plan if there’s any kind of setback or if the club wants to reduce Votto’s playing time.

In the outfield, they have a number of in-house options but no one really cemented in place. Nick Senzel, Nick Solak, Jake Fraley and TJ Friedl are some of the candidates who could be vying for outfield roles in 2023, but none of them have proven themselves enough that they should be guaranteed anything. Myers can step in wherever he fits best based on how those others are doing and can also take some time as the designated hitter if those others are all doing well. Mike Moustakas is also in line for some DH duty but he’s coming off two-straight disappointing and injury-marred campaigns. If Myers is performing well or the Reds simply want to make room for their younger players, Myers could become a trade candidate as the deadline approaches.

Financially, the rebuilding Reds haven’t thrown much money around this winter. This is just their second major league signing of the offseason alongside a modest deal for backup catcher Luke Maile. Roster Resource calculates this signing as bumping their payroll up to $78MM. That’s still well shy of their $114MM figure from Opening Day 2022, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. If they are willing to spend up to similar levels, they could still have some more cash for further moves, though they also might stay on the low side after aggressively trading away significant salaries in recent years.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the $7.5MM guarantee and the ability for Myers to reach $9.5MM. Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer first had the specifics of the $500K bonus for a trade plus $1.5MM in incentives. Mark Sheldon of MLB.com first broke down the $6MM salary in 2023 with the $1.5MM buyout on the option.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Mets Sign Omar Narvaez

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December 22: The Mets have officially announced the deal.

December 15: The Mets have dipped into free agency yet again, agreeing to terms with backstop Omar Narváez. It’s reportedly a two-year, $15MM guarantee that allows him to opt out at the end of next season. Narváez, a client of ISE Baseball, will make $8MM in 2023, leaving him to decide on a $7MM option for the following season.

Narváez, who turns 31 in February, heads to Queens after three seasons in Milwaukee. The Brewers acquired the lefty-hitting backstop from the Mariners during the 2019-20 offseason. Narváez had developed a reputation as a bat-first catcher in the Pacific Northwest. He’d hit .278/.353/.460 during his lone season with Seattle. That’s excellent production for a catcher, but his pitch framing metrics were well below-average.

The Brewers landed the #1 catcher they’d been seeking in that deal, although they likely didn’t foresee the scope of his production changing the way it did. Narváez seemed to make a concerted effort to improving his pitch framing numbers. He posted strong marks in that regard in all three seasons in Wisconsin, with Statcast cumulatively crediting him as 21 runs above average over the three-year stretch. That defensive uptick coincided with a drop in production at the plate, though, as he hasn’t managed to repeat his early-career offensive numbers.

Over his time as a Brewer, Narváez hit .233/.318/.350. He was average or worse in each season, including a lackluster .206/.292/.305 mark in 296 plate appearances during his platform year. The Venezuela native had a pair of injured list stints this year, missing time with COVID-19 and then a left hamstring strain. Even when healthy, Milwaukee deployed a more even split in playing time with Víctor Caratini, who marginally outperformed Narváez at the plate.

Narváez has solid contact skills, but a 22-homer season of 2019 now looks like the product of the very lively ball used that season. He’s only topped 10 homers in another year once, hitting 11 in Milwaukee’s hitter-friendly home environment in 2021. While he rarely hits the ball hard, he’s worked walks at a strong clip in each season of his career and strikes out less often than the average batter (aside from an anomalous spike in the abbreviated 2020 campaign).

It’s a bit surprising to see Narváez secure a $15MM commitment, particularly one that affords him a chance to retest the market a year from now. With Willson Contreras and Christian Vázquez off the board, he was the top remaining free agent backstop. Narváez has showed glimpses of offensive and defensive potential, although he’s never quite put the two together over a full season.

New York has been incredibly aggressive this winter, but they’d sat out the catching market. The Mets could’ve rolled things back with veteran James McCann as the starter, particularly since they have the glove-first Tomás Nido as a depth option and top prospect Francisco Álvarez in the wings. McCann has only a .220/.282/.328 line in 603 plate appearances since signing a four-year free agent deal over the 2020-21 offseason. Nido has never hit enough to be a regular, and the 21-year-old Álvarez still faces questions about his ability to handle the rigors of the position. The presence of Narváez doesn’t figure to stand in Álvarez’s way once the organization deems the youngster ready for a full look, though it’ll afford them some extra veteran security if he needs more time to hone his receiving and game-calling skills.

The Mets would presumably be happy to find a trade partner for McCann. With $24MM still due over the final two years of his contract, the Mets would surely have to pay down some of the money to offload the veteran backstop. They could keep the righty-hitting McCann to partner with Nárvaez in a loose platoon arrangement. Doing so might require parting with Nido, however, since he’s out of minor league option years. All three backstops would have to stay on the MLB roster or be cut loose, and that’s before considering the possibility of an Álvarez promotion. At some point next year, one of McCann or Nido seems likely to have changed uniforms.

Tacking on another $8MM brings the Mets projected 2023 payroll north of $343MM, per Roster Resource. The deal counts for $7.5MM against the luxury tax, since the player option is treated as guaranteed money when calculating its average annual value.

New York has already shattered the fourth and final tier of CBT penalization, subjecting them to a 90% tax on every additional dollar spent. The Narváez deal will cost them an extra $6.75MM in taxes, meaning the Mets are committing $14.75MM to secure his services for next year alone (in addition to the 2024 option). That’s likely a far higher price than any other club would’ve paid, but it’s the latest example owner Steve Cohen is unconcerned about spending when the front office presents him an opportunity to improve the roster.

Robert Murray of FanSided was first to report Narváez and the Mets were nearing agreement on a contract. Joel Sherman of the New York Post  first reported it was a two-year guarantee with an opt-out after 2023. Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to report the $15MM guarantee and financial breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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