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Braves Acquire Lucas Luetge From Yankees

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The Braves announced they’ve acquired reliever Lucas Luetge from the Yankees. Minor leaguers Caleb Durbin and Indigo Diaz are headed back in return. To clear a spot on their 40-man roster, Atlanta designated first baseman Lewin Díaz for assignment.

New York surprisingly designated Luetge for assignment last Wednesday. That opened a one-week window for them to trade him or place him on waivers, but the former outcome always seemed likelier. The veteran southpaw has been a productive piece of the New York bullpen over the past two years, so it’s no surprise to see a team part with some minor league talent to keep him off waivers.

Luetge, 35, pitched two seasons in the Bronx after signing a minor league deal during the 2020-21 offseason. Over his time in pinstripes, he put together a 2.71 ERA through 129 2/3 frames. That included a sub-3.00 mark in both years, with Luetge topping 55 innings in each season. His 2022 campaign saw him put together a 2.67 mark across 57 1/3 frames, striking out a solid 23.9% of opponents against a better than average 6.8% walk rate.

The veteran has held left-handed opponents to a .229/.281/.324 line in 185 plate appearances since joining the Yankees. Righties have a .268/.320/.395 slash that’s better but not overwhelming, meaning Luetge doesn’t have to be leveraged solely against same-handed hitters. He doesn’t throw hard but he’s been excellent at staying off barrels. Only 23.5% of batted balls against him this past season were hit hard, per Statcast; that’s the lowest rate of any qualified pitcher in the game.

Luetge has between four and five years of major league service. He’s arbitration-eligible for the next two seasons, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $1.7MM salary in 2023. He’ll add a third southpaw to what should be a very strong Atlanta relief corps, with A.J. Minter and Dylan Lee on hand for higher-leverage work.

The acquisition bumps Lewin Díaz off the 40-man roster and back into DFA limbo. That’s familiar territory for the 26-year-old first baseman, who has changed organizations four times this winter. He’s gone from the Marlins to the Pirates to the Orioles via waivers, and Atlanta just purchased his contract from Baltimore last week.

The Braves will now have a week to deal Díaz or try to pass him through waivers, so it’s possible he changes teams again in the coming days. A left-handed hitter, he’s a .181/.227/.340 hitter through 112 MLB games. Díaz has a more impressive .250/.325/.504 mark in just under 700 Triple-A plate appearances, though. He’s also regarded as a plus defender at first base, with public defensive metrics very bullish on his early-career work at the position. That’s led to a decent amount of interest around the league, though Díaz hasn’t yet stuck on a 40-man roster very long this winter.

As for the Yankees, they’ll bring in some minor league talent. Indigo Diaz was a 27th-round pick in the 2019 draft. He entered the 2022 campaign as the #21 prospect in the Atlanta system, according to Baseball America. The 24-year-old spent the whole season at Double-A Mississippi, posting a 3.08 ERA through 49 2/3 innings of relief. The 6’5″ righty struck out nearly 30% of opposing hitters but walked batters at a huge 14.6% clip. Diaz went unselected in this offseason’s Rule 5 draft and adds some non-roster bullpen depth to the upper minors in New York.

Durbin went in the 14th round in the 2021 draft. He split this past season between two A-ball levels, hitting .241/.352/.372 across 450 plate appearances with matching 10.9% strikeout and walk rates. A right-handed hitter, Durbin split his time between second, third base and shortstop. He turns 23 in February and won’t be eligible for the Rule 5 draft until after the 2024 campaign.

Red Sox To Sign Corey Kluber To One-Year Deal

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3:55pm: The deal can max out at $27MM over the two years, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive. In 2023, Kluber will get an extra $500K for starting 20 games, then $750K for getting to 25 and 30 starts. Those same figures will also be added to the value of the $11MM option, meaning it will escalate up to $11.5MM at 20 starts, $12.25MM at 25 and $13MM at 30. If the option is picked up, those same bonuses would be available to Kluber for 2024.

12:50pm: The Red Sox and right-hander Corey Kluber are in agreement on a one-year deal plus a club option for 2024. Kluber will be guaranteed $10MM on the deal, though there’s also $2MM in unknown incentives that could increase the eventual payday for the Wasserman client. The 2024 option is valued at $11MM, though with escalators and incentives for that season as well.

Kluber, 37 in April, was once one of the best pitchers alive, winning Cy Young awards in both 2014 and 2017. Those were part of a six-year run of excellence with Cleveland from 2013 to 2018, with Kluber posting a 2.96 ERA over that time along with a 27.7% strikeout rate, 5.2% walk rate and 44.9% ground ball rate.

Injuries limited him to just eight total starts over 2019 and 2020, with a forearm fracture and teres muscle tear the primary culprits. He’s since been ramping back up, but as more of a back-end hurler instead of the ace he was with Cleveland, signing one-year deals with the Yankees and Rays for the past two seasons. He made 16 starts in 2021 with a 3.83 ERA and 31 starts in 2022 with a 4.34 ERA. His 34.7% strikeout rate in 2017 was down to 24% last year and 20.2% in 2022. He did still avoid the free passes, something he’s long excelled at, with his 3% walk rate this year coming in a few ticks below his career 5.4% mark.

Statcast pegged Kluber’s average four-seam fastball velocity at 88.9 mph in 2022, a significant drop from prior to the injuries, when he was in the 93-95 range. Nonetheless, he still found ways to generally be effective, as his average exit velocity was in the 80th percentile, his hard hit rate in the 75th and his barrel rate 57th. Given his age and checkered health history, MLBTR predicted him for a one-year, $12MM deal, with Kluber coming in just under that, though the incentives could potentially make up the difference.

For the Sox, adding another starting pitcher makes a lot of sense given the uncertainty with their current options. Nick Pivetta is probably the only solid member of their group right now, as Chris Sale and James Paxton have hardly pitched in the past three years. Brayan Bello and Garrett Whitlock are penciled into two spots, though they are young and only have 20 MLB starts between them. Kluber is a bit of a question mark himself, but adding him into the picture still reduces the likelihood that the club will have to rely upon depth options like Connor Seabold or Josh Winckowski throughout the year.

Boston had also been connected to various other starters throughout the offseason, including Zach Eflin, Carlos Rodón, Kodai Senga, Andrew Heaney, Seth Lugo, Tyler Anderson, Rich Hill and Nathan Eovaldi. Those players have all since found new clubs, with Eovaldi signing a two-year deal with the Rangers yesterday. Chad Jennings of the Athletic reports that the Red Sox offered Eovaldi a three-year deal earlier this month, though the guarantee on that offer isn’t known. Regardless, it seems that Eovaldi spurned it in favor of the offer from Texas and Boston then pivoted to Kluber.

Kluber had previously been connected to the Angels and Cubs, though the latter’s interest was prior to signing Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly. If the Angels are still looking for rotation upgrades, some of the remaining free agents include Michael Wacha, Johnny Cueto and Zack Greinke.

This deal brings the Red Sox payroll up to $186MM and their competitive balance tax figure to $212MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource. That should leave them room for further additions if they so choose, as they’ve run a payroll as high as $236MM in the past, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and they’re still more than $20MM shy of the $233MM luxury tax threshold.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that Kluber and the Red Sox were in agreement on a one-year deal plus a club option. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe first reported the $10MM guarantee and later provided some details on the incentives. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the $11MM figure for the option and that the deal contained incentives.

Image courtesy USA Today Sports.

Giants Designate Tommy La Stella For Assignment

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The Giants have designated infielder Tommy La Stella for assignment, reports Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. The move opens a roster spot for reliever Taylor Rogers.

La Stella, 34 in January, had an up-and-down career before coming to the Giants. After a couple of subpar seasons with the Braves and Cubs in 2014 and 2015, he seemed to find a good groove after that. Still with the Cubs in 2016 and 2017, he walked in 11.9% of his plate appearances and produced an overall batting line of .278/.372/.436. That production was 16% above league average, as evidenced by his 116 wRC+.

He had a swoon in 2018, as he hit just a single home run in 123 games and his walk rate dipped to 8.9%, leading to a batting line of .266/.340/.331 and a wRC+ of 87. However, he seemed to take a big step forward in 2019, hitting 16 home runs, more than his total over the previous five seasons. His walk rate dipped again but he only struck out in 8.7% of his plate appearances. 2019 was the “juiced ball” season, but he was still well above average at the plate. His .295/.346/.486 amounted to a wRC+ of 119, indicating he was 19% better than average that year, with wRC+ controlling for the offensive environment around the league.

In the shortened 2020 campaign, he added another five home runs and dropped his strikeout rate even farther to just 5.3%. He parlayed that into a three-year, $18.75MM deal with the Giants going into 2021. Unfortunately, La Stella’s seesaw career has been pointing straight down since that deal was signed. He made multiple trips to the injured list in 2021, getting into 76 games and hitting just .250/.308/.405 for a wRC+ of 93. He underwent achilles surgery in October, which was originally reported as occurring on his left achilles but was reported almost a year later to have been on both of them, per Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic.

In 2022, things got worse, as he continued to make frequent trips to the IL. He only played 60 games in the most recent season and took the field for just 76 innings on the year. When in the lineup, he produced a slash line of just .239/.282/.350 for a wRC+ of 78. Though there’s still another year left on his contract, it seems the Giants have decided it’s time to move on.

La Stella’s deal was heavily backloaded, as he made just $2MM in 2021, $5.25MM this year and is set for a salary of $11.5MM next year. The Giants will now have one week to trade La Stella or pass him through waivers, though a trade will be difficult to accomplish. Given the past two years have seen him struggle both in terms of health and performance, there will be little appetite from other teams to take on that $11.5MM salary. On the defensive side of things, La Stella has previously been able to serve as a utility player, splitting his time between second, third and first base. However, he hasn’t been rated as especially strong at any of them and barely donned a glove in 2022.

Assuming he clears waivers, he has more than five years of MLB service time, which gives him the right to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency while retaining that salary. At that point, any club in the league could sign him and pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount being subtracted from what the Giants pay.

Giants, Taylor Rogers Agree To Three-Year Deal

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December 28: The Giants have officially announced the signing of Rogers. He’ll make $9MM in 2023 followed by $12MM salaries in the next two seasons, reports Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area.

December 23: The Giants and reliever Taylor Rogers are in agreement on a three-year, $33MM contract, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The deal for the Frontline client is pending a physical.

Rogers, 32, will now join his twin brother in the San Francisco bullpen, as right-hander Tyler Rogers is already on the club. The left-handed Taylor was one of the top relievers available in free agency this offseason and certainly one of the best southpaws. He came into the open market on a bit of a down note, as he posted a combined 4.76 ERA between the Padres and Brewers, having switched jerseys as part of the much-maligned Josh Hader trade.

Taylor Rogers | Kim Klement-USA TODAY SportsHowever, it wasn’t quite as bad as that ERA might seem. His 30.7% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate were both much better than average and roughly in line with his career marks. His 42.4% ground ball rate was below league average but only by half a percentage point. A 63.5% strand rate may have been a culprit, as that’s roughly 10% below his 74.1% career norm and the 72.6% league average in 2022.

Advanced metrics were much more fond of Rogers in 2022, as he posted a 3.31 FIP, 3.26 xFIP and 2.64 SIERA. Those numbers are also more in line with his pre-2022 form. With the Twins from 2016 to 2021, he made 319 appearances with a 3.15 ERA, 27.9% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate and 47.8% ground ball rate, with all of those numbers being a few ticks better than the league average hurler. Though the 4.76 ERA in 2022 didn’t look great, he has a lengthy track record as being a very effective big league reliever and that figure likely wasn’t deserved. MLBTR predicted he could secure a three-year, $30MM deal and he has come out ahead of that.

For the Giants, the signing of Rogers makes plenty of sense given their dearth of reliable southpaw relievers. Prior to this agreement, Scott Alexander and Sam Long were the only lefties projected to be in the bullpen. Alexander has had great results but is frequently injured, not reaching 20 MLB innings since 2018, and will be turning 34 next season. Long has just 40 games in the majors with a 4.55 ERA to show for it. Given those options, it makes plenty of sense that the club has targeted improvements in this area. Rogers should slot in behind closer Camilo Doval for some high-leverage work. For teams still looking for left-handed additions to their bullpen, the top options with Rogers off the board include Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore and Brad Hand.

Assuming an even distribution of the money in $11MM increments, Roster Resource now calculates the club’s payroll to just above $191MM and their competitive balance tax figure to be $208MM. That payroll is well beyond last year’s $155MM Opening Day number, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but they have gone above $200MM in the past. It’s unknown how much they plan on spending this winter, but they still have lots of room before reaching the $233MM base threshold of the luxury tax.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rangers Sign Nathan Eovaldi

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The Rangers announced another rotation addition, signing Nathan Eovaldi to a two-year deal with a vesting/player option for the 2025 campaign. The ACES client will be paid a $2MM signing bonus followed by $16MM salaries in each of the next two seasons. The option — which is valued at $20MM — would kick in as a player option if Eovaldi throws 300 combined innings from 2023-24. It’d also be triggered if the righty finishes in the top five in Cy Young voting in 2024 or finishes in the top seven that year and qualifies for the All-Star team. Eovaldi also has limited no-trade protection and innings-based incentives that could allow him to make as much as $63MM over the next three seasons.

Eovaldi has spent the past four-plus seasons with the Red Sox. Boston first acquired the righty from the Rays at the 2018 trade deadline, adding the impending free agent for their playoff push. Eovaldi was excellent in 12 regular season appearances, then added 22 1/3 innings of 1.61 ERA ball in the postseason. At year’s end, Boston rewarded him for his finish with a four-year, $68MM free agent deal.

That contract looked shaky in year one, as Eovaldi posted an ERA just south of 6.00 in 2019 — a season in which he missed a notable chunk of action due to loose bodies in his throwing elbow. He righted the ship in the second season, though, posting a 3.72 ERA through nine outings during the shortened 2020 campaign.

Eovaldi followed up with maybe the best full season of his career in 2021. He made all 32 starts and posted a 3.75 ERA through 182 1/3 innings, striking out 25.5% of opponents against a 4.6% walk rate. That showing earned him his first career All-Star selection, as well as a fourth place finish in AL Cy Young balloting.

Unfortunately, injury issues cropped back up in 2022. Eovaldi missed chunks of what proved to be his final season in Boston due to a pair of injured list stints. He lost time between June and July with lower back inflammation and missed most of August and September thanks to inflammation in his throwing shoulder. The pair of injuries kept him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 frames, although his production on a rate basis was around his career norms.

Eovaldi managed a 3.87 ERA, striking out a slightly above-average 22.4% of batters faced. He walked a minuscule 4.3% of opponents while inducing grounders on 47% of batted balls he surrendered. Eovaldi isn’t the ace his 2021 fourth-place Cy Young finish might suggest, but he’s an above-average mid-rotation arm when healthy.

That production doesn’t come the way one might expect given Eovaldi’s power arsenal. He’s one of the game’s hardest throwers, averaging north of 97 MPH for much of his career. However, he’s never posted the elite strikeout rates typically associated with that velocity. Eovaldi’s best trait is instead his ability to pound the strike zone. He’s walked fewer than 5% of opponents in each of the past three years; his cumulative 4.4% walk percentage since the start of 2020 is second-lowest among the 120 pitchers with 200+ frames over that stretch (trailing only the 4.3% mark of Clayton Kershaw).

Eovaldi’s willingness to attack the zone has led to home run issues at times. He’s allowed homers at a higher than average clip in three of the last four years, including an elevated 1.73 homers per nine innings this past season. That’s the only red flag in Eovaldi’s recent performance track record but his health and age presumably gave some teams pause. He’ll be 33 in February, making him one of the older options in a deep class of mid-rotation starters available in free agency.

In addition to this year’s shoulder and back concerns, he has a history of elbow problems. Eovaldi underwent Tommy John surgery in high school, then missed the 2017 campaign after undergoing the procedure a second time in August 2016. He hasn’t required any IL stints due to elbow concerns since the aforementioned 2019 loose bodies. The back and shoulder injuries of this past season might be more acute problems, as Eovaldi’s average fastball velocity dipped from its customary 96-97 MPH range early in the season to roughly 94 MPH after his first IL stint.

Those injuries seemed to depress Eovaldi’s market. Chris Bassitt landed a three-year, $63MM deal headed into his age-34 campaign, while players like Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker secured strong four-year pacts despite less consistent performance track records than Eovaldi’s. Many of the free agent starters this offseason landed stronger than expected deals, but Eovaldi’s guarantee exactly matches MLBTR’s prediction from the outset of the offseason.

Eovaldi’s camp was also working against the qualifying offer. He turned down a QO from Boston at the start of the winter, tying any signing team to draft compensation. That was also the case for Bassitt but didn’t come into play for Walker and Taillon.

Texas hasn’t shown much concern about losing draft choices to add quality talent via free agency. They surrendered two picks to sign Corey Seager and Marcus Semien last winter, and they’ll do so again this offseason. The Rangers already forfeited a draft choice to sign Jacob deGrom to a five-year deal. That lessens the price they’ll have to pay in Eovaldi’s case. Texas surrendered their second-highest draft choice in 2023 and $500K in international signing bonus space to add deGrom. They’ll be docked another $500K in signing bonus room and their third-highest pick for Eovaldi.

After the Seager and Semien splashes to bolster the lineup last offseason, the Rangers have thoroughly overhauled their starting staff this winter. Texas acquired Jake Odorizzi from the Braves within the first few days. Left-hander Martín Pérez soon after accepted a qualifying offer, but that didn’t slow down Texas GM Chris Young or his front office. Since free agency opened, they’ve nabbed deGrom on the largest pitching contract of the offseason and brought in Andrew Heaney and Eovaldi on two-year guarantees.

Eovaldi adds another mid-rotation caliber starter to what now looks like a potentially fearsome Rangers rotation. deGrom headlines the staff, backed up by Jon Gray, Eovaldi, Pérez and Heaney. Odorizzi and Dane Dunning seem as if they’ll be pushed into depth roles, though there’s enough injury uncertainty with most of the top five it’s understandable Texas wouldn’t take its foot off the gas in pursuing outside help.

Owner Ray Davis and the front office haven’t shown many qualms about spending. Tacking on Eovaldi’s $16MM salary to next year’s books brings their projected payroll around $196MM, per Roster Resource. That’ll be a franchise record, easily topping the organization’s previous Opening Day high-water mark of $165MM. The deal’s $17MM average annual value brings their competitive balance tax number around $220MM, per Roster Resource, leaving them $13MM shy of next year’s $233MM base tax threshold.

The rotation hefty lifting looks to be complete, but Texas is known to be seeking ways to upgrade in the corner outfield. There’s room for a mid-tier free agent pickup there if the team prefers to stay under the CBT marker, though it’s also possible Davis is comfortable pushing past that threshold. The franchise’s boldness this winter has backed up their claims they plan to compete for a playoff spot in 2023, as both the Rangers and Angels have worked to try to close the gap with the Astros and Mariners in the AL West.

It’s another free agent departure for the Red Sox, who have seen a few notable players head elsewhere. Eovaldi and Xander Bogaerts each left after declining a qualifying offer. Boston receives draft compensation for both, though that’s a rather minimal benefit in their case. The Red Sox narrowly exceeded the CBT threshold in 2022, a decision that didn’t pay off when the club stumbled to a last-place finish down the stretch. They only receive bonus selections after the fourth round in next year’s draft as a result.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Rangers and Eovaldi were in agreement. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News was first to report it was a two-year deal with an option, as well as the specific financial breakdown. Jeff Passan of ESPN was first with the $34MM guarantee and the third-year option being a vesting/player provision, as well as the option specifics. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the no-trade protection and potential to vest the option based on Cy Young voting.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Royals Sign Jordan Lyles

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Dec. 28: The Royals have officially announced their deal with Lyles.

Dec. 20: Lyles has a two-year, $17MM deal with the Royals, tweets Feinsand. The agreement also contains performance bonuses and is still pending the completion of a physical, tweets Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner.

Dec. 19: The Royals are nearing agreement on a contract with free agent starter Jordan Lyles, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). It’s likely to be a two-year contract for the Ballengee Group client, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (on Twitter).

Assuming the deal eventually pushes across the finish line, it’ll be the eighth MLB organization for Lyles. The former first-rounder and top prospect has moved around the league in journeyman fashion, securing numerous opportunities on the strength of his durability and a strong clubhouse reputation. Lyles has made 28-plus starts in each of the past three full seasons, entirely avoiding the injured list since June 2019.

The right-hander doesn’t post especially eye-opening numbers on a rate basis. He’s pitched parts of 12 seasons in the majors and never managed an ERA below 4.00, allowing more than five earned runs per nine innings in eight years. Some of that is attributable to difficult environments, as he’s spent multiple seasons calling hitter-friendly venues like Coors Field and Globe Life Field home. Yet he also consistently runs lower than average strikeout rates, and the significant number of balls in play has helped lead to a 5.10 ERA through more than 1300 career innings.

To his credit, Lyles is coming off one of the better seasons of his career. Signed to a $7MM guarantee by Baltimore last offseason, he ably filled the role of ’innings-eating veteran’ on an otherwise young pitching staff. Lyles took the ball all 32 times for the O’s, ranking 29th in the majors with 179 innings pitched. He threw strikes and posted a reasonable 4.42 ERA in arguably the game’s most hitter-friendly division. Lyles walked just 6.7% of batters faced this year, nearly a percentage point lower than the league average and his lowest rate since his 2011 rookie season.

The 32-year-old wasn’t overpowering. He averaged 91.8 MPH on his fastball while posting lower than average strikeout and swinging strike marks (18.6% and 9.3%, respectively). He was hit hard to a .278/.347/.500 clip by left-handed hitters, while he held same-handed opponents to a more manageable .275/.318/.418 line. Fielding independent metrics like FIP (4.40) and SIERA (4.36) generally pegged his production right in line with his actual run prevention mark.

Lyles performed as well as the Orioles could’ve reasonably anticipated at the time they signed him, logging plenty of serviceable but slightly below-average innings. Nevertheless, Baltimore paid him a $1MM buyout in lieu of an $11MM option at the start of the offseason. They reallocated the $10MM to fellow veteran Kyle Gibson, who inked a one-year free agent deal after a season and a half in Philadelphia. Dan Connolly of the Athletic wrote this evening that Baltimore had cursory conversations with Lyles about a potential reunion — presumably at a lower price point — but talks never advanced beyond the initial stages.

Instead, Lyles looks as if he’ll head to Kansas City to play the same role he did in Baltimore. The Royals have a young pitching staff that’s light on certainty. Brady Singer looks to have at least emerged as a mid-rotation starter after posting a 3.23 ERA across 153 1/3 innings. He’s the only of the Royals’ stable of talented young arms to do so thus far, as players like Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic and Carlos Hernández haven’t found much consistency.

Adding some veteran stability to the mix seemed to be a priority for general manager J.J. Picollo and his front office. They’ve targeted the lower tiers of the free agent rotation market to that end. Last week, Kansas City inked southpaw Ryan Yarbrough to a $3MM guarantee. It seems they’ll follow with Lyles, bringing in two experienced arms to raise the unit’s floor. Singer, Lyles and Yarbrough seem as if they’ll take spots in the season-opening rotation, while players like Lynch, Bubic, Hernández and Brad Keller may jostle for roles at the back end.

Financial terms under discussion aren’t yet clear, though Lyles doesn’t figure to break the bank. Roster Resource projects K.C. for a player payroll around $79MM, a fair bit shy of last year’s season-opening mark in the $94MM range. The Royals could further clear some spending room by contemplating trades of arbitration-eligible players like Keller, Scott Barlow or Adalberto Mondesi or a deal involving center fielder Michael A. Taylor, who’s guaranteed $4.5MM in the second season of a two-year extension.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Braves Sign Sean Murphy To Six-Year Extension

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The Braves tonight announced they’ve extended catcher Sean Murphy on a six-year, $73MM contract. The deal comes with a $15MM club option for 2029 which does not include a buyout. As part of the deal, Murphy will take home $4MM in 2023, $9MM in 2024, and $15MM in 2025-28. He’ll also donate 1% of his salary to the Atlanta Braves Foundation. Atlanta had only acquired the Rowley Sports Management client as the headliner of a three-team trade that included the Brewers and Athletics earlier this month. Murphy was first-year arbitration-eligible going into 2023, so this deal buys out his remaining three years of club control as well as potentially four free agent years.

The move continues Atlanta’s recent trend of extending their core of starting players, and Murphy joins Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, Spencer Strider and Michael Harris as players on the current roster that have received long-term extensions while still under club control. That group of players can now be controlled by Atlanta through 2027, while only Acuna Jr. and Albies have deals that expire before 2029.

The 28-year-old Murphy has established himself as one of the best catchers in all of baseball in recent seasons with Oakland. At the plate, he’s hit 46 home runs and a combined .236/.326/.429 line across parts of four big league seasons. That’s been good for a wRC+ of 116, indicating he’s been 16 percent better than the league average hitter. He took a step forward at the plate in 2022 as well, knocking around 5% off his career strikeout rate and posting a .250/.332/.426 line over 612 plate appearances.

Defensively, he’s posted 12 Defensive Runs Saved since 2020 which places him in the top ten league wide. Fangraphs framing metric ranks him as the third-best pitch framer in the sport in that same period as well. That combination of strong defense and above-average offense has amounted to a career haul of 10.6 fWAR, with 2022 accounting for 5.1 of that tally.

Murphy’s form, Oakland’s rebuild and a thin free agent market for catchers made him one of those most hotly talked about trade chips in the sport going into the off-season. Sure enough, as many as nine teams were connected with him in the weeks leading up to his December 12 trade. It was a good old-fashioned blockbuster as well, as the Braves sent Royber Salinas, Manny Pina, Kyle Muller and Freddy Tarnok to Oakland, and William Contreras and Justin Yeager to the Brewers to complete the deal.

The match with Atlanta wasn’t always the most obvious fit on paper, given the Braves had a strong catching trio of Travis D’Arnaud, Pina and Contreras on the books moving forward. Clearly though, general manager Alex Anthopolous saw an opportunity to upgrade that group and shipped out Pina and Contreras to make room for Murphy.

It’s now the second-successive winter that Atlanta have traded for one of Oakland’s stars and immediately extended him. Last off-season, they acquired Olson and a day later signed him to an eight-year, $168MM extension. Olson has already established himself as a key part of the Braves’ core, and now it seems Murphy will do the same from 2023 onwards.

As mentioned earlier, a raft of extensions have established a strong core in Atlanta. As well as those, they also have Max Fried under control through 2024, rookie Vaughn Grissom through 2028, and Kyle Wright through 2026. For a team that won 101 games in 2022, it’s certainly heartening for Braves fans to know that much of that core – and now their biggest off-season addition – will be around long term.

Per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’ predictions, Murphy was slated to earn $3.5MM in arbitration this season, so he’ll take home only a $500K raise on that figure for next season. That is significant for luxury tax calculations though, which account for a contract’s AAV. In Murphy’s case, that’ll be an AAV of just over $12MM which pushes the Braves into the first tier of luxury tax, despite RosterResource estimating their actual payroll sitting at around $198MM currently (the first luxury tax threshold is $233MM). Of course, the Braves could look to unload salary to get below that mark, but it’d only be a small penalty on any overage at this stage. Further, they’ll have just over $50MM worth of club options (with no buyouts) on Charlie Morton, D’Arnaud, Kirby Yates, Collin McHugh, Orlando Arcia and Eddie Rosario to decide on next winter, which could comfortably get them back under the threshold.

Pirates, Rich Hill In Agreement On One-Year Deal

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The Pirates and left-hander Rich Hill are in agreement on a one-year, $8MM deal, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The deal is pending a physical. Hill is an ACES client.

Hill, 43 in March, has one of the most unique baseball stories. He had some success as a starter early in his career, which began with the Cubs. Back in 2007, he made 32 starts for the Cubbies, tossing 195 innings with a 3.92 ERA. However, injuries and underperformance led to an extended period of struggle for Hill. He didn’t reach 60 MLB innings pitched in any season from 2008 to 2015, often struggling with his health or command or both while bouncing to Baltimore, Boston, Cleveland, the Angels and the Yankees.

Hill’s struggles were so pronounced that he wound up pitching for the Long Island Ducks for a spell in 2015, but he showed enough promise there to earn a minor league deal from the Red Sox. He got promoted late in the season and made four starts with an ERA of 1.55. That was enough for the A’s to take a gamble on him, as they signed him to a $6MM deal for his age-36 season. Hill cemented his improbable late-career comeback by posting a 2.12 ERA in 2016 over 20 starts and has continued to generally post solid results in each year since.

Hill isn’t a workhorse, as he hasn’t hit 160 innings in any season outside of that 2007 campaign with the Cubs. What he has been able to provide in recent years is generally strong innings on a rate basis. From 2016 to the present, he’s made at least 20 starts and logged at least 110 frames in five of the six full seasons, with 2019 being the lone exception when a forearm strain limited him to just 13 starts and 58 2/3 innings. In that time, he has a 3.39 ERA, 25.8% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate and 39.7% ground ball rate, spending time with the A’s, Dodgers, Twins, Rays, Mets and Red Sox.

The southpaw hasn’t been quite as successful in the past three seasons, especially in the strikeout department. While he punched out 29% of batters faced from 2016 to 2019, it’s been just 21.6% since then. That’s pushed his ERA up as well, as he got to 4.27 with Boston in 2022, with a 20.7% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate and 40.2% ground ball rate this year. Nonetheless, he’s still found ways to be effective, as his hard hit rate was in the 79th percentile this year and his average exit velocity in the 56th.

Going into his age-43 campaign, Hill still garnered plenty of interest on the open market this offseason. The Orioles, Angels, Rangers and Red Sox all showed some interest, but it’s the Pirates that have secured his services for 2023. Hill is the second rotation addition the club has made this offseason, as they also added Vince Velasquez a few weeks ago. Those two should slot next to Mitch Keller, JT Brubaker and Roansy Contreras in the club’s rotation, bumping Bryse Wilson to a long-relief role in the bullpen. The club will have Johan Oviedo, Luis Ortiz and some other arms available as depth for inevitable injuries or future trades. For those clubs that missed out on Hill, the free agent starting pitching market is now topped by the likes of Nathan Eovaldi, Corey Kluber, Michael Wacha and Johnny Cueto.

The Bucs have been firmly in rebuild mode for a few years and are coming off a 100-loss season, but they’ve been fairly active in adding veterans for 2023. They acquired Ji-Man Choi in a trade with the Rays and have also signed Carlos Santana, Austin Hedges and Jarlín García, as well as adding Velasquez and Hill to the rotation. All of those players are lined up to be short-term additions, as they are each slated for free agency after 2023. Though those players could make the club more competent for the upcoming season, they’re also lined up to be trade candidates about half a year from now unless the Pirates suddenly take a huge leap forward in their rebuilding process. Regardless, they should all be able to impart some wisdom to the younger players from their years in the game, with Hill the most qualified to contribute in that capacity. The retirement of Albert Pujols leaves him as the oldest player in the majors.

Financially, this signing bring the Pittsburgh payroll up to $70MM, according to the calculations of Roster Resource. That puts the club well beyond last year’s $56MM, per figures from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but well shy of their franchise record of just under $100MM. There’s no real long-term investment to speak of, as Ke’Bryan Hayes is still the only player under contract for 2024, but this winter’s crop of one-year deals represents the most aggressive additions for the team in a few years.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Mets Re-Sign Adam Ottavino To Two-Year Deal

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December 27: The deal has now been officially announced by the Mets.

December 20: The Mets and right-hander Adam Ottavino are in agreement on a contract to bring him back to Queens. It will be a two-year, $14.5MM deal with Ottavino having the ability to opt-out after the first year. The deal is pending a physical. Ottavino is represented by WME Baseball.

Ottavino, 37, has had some ups and downs in his career but has an overall track record of effective relief pitching going back a decade now. He debuted with the Cardinals back in 2010 but came to prominence with the Rockies over a seven-year stretch from 2012 to 2018. In that timeframe, he pitched in 361 games and logged 390 2/3 innings, posting a 3.41 ERA with a 27.6% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate and 46.1% ground ball rate. His strikeout rate ticked upward over his time in Colorado, getting as high as 36.2% in 2018, though there were some control issues, as he walked 16% of batters faced in 2017 and 11.7% in 2018.

He reached free agency and signed with the Yankees going into 2019, signing a three-year deal worth $27MM. The first year of that deal went very well as he posted a 1.90 ERA in the Bronx, though that ballooned to 5.89 in 2020. That was a small sample of 18 1/3 innings in the shortened season, but it was enough for the Yanks to move on, flipping him to the Red Sox in a salary dump trade. Ottavino then posted a 4.21 ERA for Boston in 2021, with his strikeout rate dipping to 25.7% and his walk rate coming in at 12.7%.

The Mets signed Ottavino to a modest one-year deal for 2022 worth $4MM plus incentives and were rewarded with an excellent bounceback campaign. The righty made 66 appearances out of the Mets’ bullpen in 2022, finishing the year with a 2.06 ERA, striking out 30.6% of batters faced while walking just 6.2% of them. He also got ground balls on 51.9% of balls in play while racking up three saves and 18 holds for the year. Based on that strong comeback campaign, MLBTR predicted Ottavino could secure himself a two-year, $14MM contract, which he has narrowly exceeded here.

The Mets were facing a huge bullpen exodus this offseason, with Ottavino, Edwin Díaz, Seth Lugo, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodríguez and Trevor May all reaching free agency a few weeks ago. They have since addressed that situation by re-signing Díaz, signing David Robertson, trading for Brooks Raley and now bringing Ottavino back into the fray as well.

In addition to those moves, the club has been extremely active in free agency to address other parts of the roster. The rotation also had a number of holes appear, with Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker all becoming free agents. Those three were replaced by signing Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga and José Quintana. The club also bolstered its position player mix by re-signing Brandon Nimmo and signing Omar Narváez.

The Mets already had one of the highest payrolls in the league in 2022 and those moves have shot them up to incredible new heights. Roster Resource has them at $344MM before even factoring in the Ottavino deal, with a competitive balance tax figure of $356MM. Since the Mets are second-time payors and are well beyond the fourth CBT threshold of $293MM, they are now paying a 90% tax on any further spending. Ottavino will add $7.25MM to that CBT figure, leading to an extra $6.525MM in taxes, meaning the club is effectively paying $13.775MM for Ottavino’s services in 2022.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the Mets signing Ottavino and the two-year with opt-out structure (Twitter links). Jeff Passan of ESPN first had the dollar figures.

Mets Have “Raised Concerns” Over Carlos Correa’s Physical, Deal Still “Likely”

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Dec 26: Heyman reports that a few teams have “checked in” since the Mets showed concern in the physical. A situation akin to what happened in San Francisco just a week ago does not appear nigh though, as Heyman adds that talks between the Mets and Correa’s camp appear to have been more substantive than what occurred with the Giants in the aftermath of Correa’s physical there.

Dec 24, 2:51pm: According to Jesse Rogers of ESPN, a deal with the Mets is still “likely”, although he reports that the contract could be reworked considering the issue. While it’s not known what a reworked contract would look like, it could include altering the duration or financial guarantee of the contract, or rewording it to alter the amount of guaranteed money Correa makes should he miss a period of time due to the specific leg ailment which is causing concern. Rogers adds that there is not a timetable in place to resolve the matter.

10:56am: Carlos Correa’s physical with the Mets has “raised concerns”, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Per the report, the concern centers on Correa’s surgically repaired lower right leg. Correa has agreed to a 12-year, $315MM deal with the Mets just days after a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants fell through over concerns over the physical.

While it’s jarring to hear given the events of the past week, it’s unclear yet what this means for the status of the deal. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the two parties are currently trying to work through the issue.

Mets owner Steve Cohen has already addressed the deal, telling Heyman earlier this week that “we needed one more thing, and this is it”. That’s particularly significant as, per The Athletic’s report, addressing the deal on the record could make it trickier to back out of the agreement, although there’s nothing to suggest that’s what the Mets are looking to do.

It’s been a fascinating turn of events in Correa’s free agency over the past week. Generally, reported agreements pending a physical have become official without a hitch, but Correa’s has now hit a snag on two separate occasions in the space of a week. Further, he’s one of the top free agents this winter and had agreed to deals worth in excess of $300MM. Correa had agreed to a long-term contract with the Giants on December 13, but that fell over on Monday after the Giants reportedly asked for more time to look into the medicals after finding something that gave them pause. However, agent Scott Boras quickly pivoted and went to the Mets, who quickly agreed to their own long-term deal for $35MM less than the original Giants agreement.

Boras sought to re-engage with the Twins as well after the Giants deal fell through. Per The Athletic’s report, they’d offered him a ten-year, $285MM deal but would have put a greater emphasis on a physical before that deal than the deal he signed with Minnesota earlier in 2022, given the long-term nature of the proposal. The report also adds that after Correa became available again, the Twins were unwilling to alter their initial proposal, and would have wanted to investigate the issues raised in the player’s physical with the Giants.

The Giants have been quiet on the matter. HIPAA laws restrict them from disclosing clear answers about the precise nature of the injury, but president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi did offer a statement: “While we are prohibited from disclosing confidential medical information, as Scott Boras stated publicly, there was a difference of opinion over the results of Carlos’ physical examination. We wish Carlos the best.”

The Correa camp has denied any cause for concern. Prior to undertaking his physical with the Mets, Boras said “there is nothing with him that is currently any sort of medical issue,” via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. He also added that the Giants were trying to use a “crystal ball” to try and predict Correa’s long term health (via Laura Albanese of Newsday).

Various reports have mentioned Correa’s right leg as the source of concern for both the Giants and Mets. Back in 2014, a teenage Correa fractured his right fibula and sustained minor ligament damage while playing in High-A in the Astros organization. That injury required arthroscopic surgery to repair. Correa has missed time for thumb, back and rib issues in the big leagues, but the right leg has never sent him to the injured list in his eight big league seasons.

It is worth remembering that only a few years ago the Mets did pull out of a deal with a player. In 2021, they drafted Kumar Rocker 10th overall and agreed to a $6MM signing bonus, before abandoning the deal after growing concerned by something they saw in the physical. Of course, backing out of a $6MM deal for draft pick and a $315MM contract for an All-Star are two different things, and Cohen’s comments certainly give confidence that a deal can still go through in some form.

It’s the latest twist in what has been a tumultuous time for Correa on the open market. He was the top free agent after departing the Astros last year, but after the long-term deal he sought didn’t eventuate he took a three-year, opt-out laden, $105.1MM deal with the Twins. After earning $35.1MM last season and putting up another strong season he opted out and hit the open market for the second-straight winter. The long-term mega deal he’d been seeking looked to have finally come to fruition when it was reported the Giants had agreed to a 13-year, $350MM pact. That deal fell through, but Correa was able to quickly land a $300MM+ deal with the Mets. While there’s every chance a deal with New York still goes through, there’s at least some doubt now hanging over it.

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