Blue Jays Acquire Jordan Hicks
The Blue Jays landed one of the most sought-after bullpen arms on the trade market Sunday, announcing the acquisition of righty Jordan Hicks from the Cardinals in exchange for Double-A right-handers Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein. In a corresponding roster move, Toronto designated righty Mitch White for assignment. Hicks had previously been reported to be discussing an extension with the Cardinals ahead of the trade deadline on August 1, though those discussions seemingly stalled out earlier in the week.
Hicks, 26, was a third-round pick in the 2015 draft by the Cardinals. He made his big league debut back in 2018 and threw 77 2/3 innings in his first big league season, with a 3.59 ERA and 3.74 FIP. While he generated an impressive 60.7% groundball rate in his rookie campaign, he posted a lackluster 20.6% strikeout rate and struggled badly with his control to the point of walking 13.3% of batters faced. Early on in his sophomore 2019 season, Hicks required Tommy John surgery. That surgery began a series of injuries and setbacks that would limit him to just 38 2/3 innings of work from 2019-21.
Finally fully healthy in 2022, the Cardinals decided to try using Hicks as a member of the rotation. That experiment did not go well, as Hicks posted a 5.84 ERA and 5.54 FIP in 24 2/3 innings of work across seven starts while walking a whopping 16% of batters faced over that stretch. While he pitched a bit better upon returning to the bullpen, he nonetheless finished the 2022 campaign with 4.84 ERA and 13.3% walk rate in 61 1/3 innings of work.
The 2023 campaign started off difficultly for Hicks once again, as he yielded a whopping nine runs (eight earned) in just 5 2/3 innings of work in his first seven appearances of the year. Since then, however, he’s settled in as one of the most dominant relievers in baseball over the past few months. Since April 18, Hicks sports a 2.25 ERA and a sterling 1.92 FIP in 36 innings of work. He’s cut his walk rate to 10.4% in that time, a figure that, while somewhat elevated, is more than made up for by a phenomenal 34.4% strikeout rate. Hicks also sports a characteristically excellent 58.3% groundball rate this season, a figure that has led him to allow just two home runs all season, and none since he got his season back on track in mid-April.
Hicks’s dominant arm makes him a perfect candidate for Toronto’s bullpen, as the Blue Jays lost closer Jordan Romano to the 15-day injured list earlier this weekend thanks to lower back inflammation. While it’s possible Romano will return fairly quickly after the minimum 15-day stint, he’s been plagued by the issue since it caused him to depart the All Star game earlier this month. Still, it would hardly be a surprise to see the Blue Jays take additional time to ensure their closer is fully healthy upon his return given both the nagging nature of the issue and the importance of Romano, who leads the AL with 28 saves this season and sports a 2.79 ERA in 42 innings this season, to the club’s success.
In return for Hicks’s services, the Blue Jays are paying a hefty prospect toll. Robberse appears to be the headliner in the deal as the club’s seventh-best prospect according to MLB Pipeline and their sixth-best prospect according to Fangraphs. Originally signed out of the Netherlands back in 2019, the 21-year-old hurler sports a 92-94 mph fastball, quality secondary offerings in both a changeup and a slider, and plus command. In 113 1/3 innings of work at the Double-A level, Robberse owns a 3.97 ERA and a strikeout rate of 22%.
Kloffenstein, meanwhile, goes unranked on both Pipeline’s and Fangraphs’s lists. Fangraphs describes Kloffenstein as a pitcher with a four-pitch mix highlighted by a sinker and a slider, though it ultimately pegs him as more of an innings-eating, depth starter type. That evaluation, however, is from prior to the 2023 campaign, where Kloffenstein has impressed to this point. Toronto’s third-round pick in the 2018 draft has shoved across 89 innings of work at Double-A this season to the tune of a 3.24 ERA with a strikeout rate of 27.6%, a figure well above his career rate of 23.5% entering the 2023 campaign.
Both Kloffenstein and Robberse clearly fit the mold of return the Cardinals have reportedly been looking for in dangling their rental arms this summer: controllable, upper-level starting pitching prospects. Both Robberse and Kloffenstein project as starters going forward and have over 100 innings of experience at Double-A, with Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat noting that both hurlers are set to be promoted to Triple-A by the Cardinals organization. Given that promotion, it seems reasonable to assume both pitchers will be on the big league radar for sometime in 2024, barring injury or ineffectiveness changing the timeline.
The deal also spells the end of White’s time in Toronto. A second-round selection by the Dodgers in the 2016 draft, White impressed with a 3.44 ERA and 3.78 FIp in 49 2/3 innings of work across his first two seasons in the majors. He continued his success in a Dodgers uniform in 2022 with a 3.70 ERA and 3.95 FIP in 56 innings of work, but the club dealt White to Toronto at the trade deadline last season. Since joining the Blue Jays, White has struggled mightily, with a 7.60 ERA in 55 2/3 innings of work. While he posted a 4.03 FIP that far outstrips his results as a member of the Jays, his walk rate has ticked up to 11.7% this season, a level unlikely to be sustainable given his mediocre 21.7% strikeout rate. Going forward, Toronto will have one week to either waive or release White, assuming he himself isn’t traded before the deadline on August 1.
Craig Mish of the Miami Herald first reported that Hicks had been traded to Toronto. FanSided’s Robert Murray reported that Kloffenstein was part of the return. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet first reported Robberse’s inclusion in the deal.
Cubs Take Cody Bellinger Off Trade Market
The Cubs entered the month of July widely expected to be sellers this trade season, but the club has turned their season around since the All Star break. Chicago is currently riding an eight-game win streak and have won ten of their last eleven games. The recent hot streak has propelled them to a 53-51 record, 3.5 games out of the NL Central and just three games back of the final NL Wild Card spot. Per Fangraphs, the club’s playoff odds have shot from just 6% on July 17 all the way up to 31.7% today.
Given this rapid turn of the club’s fortunes, the club has decided not to move outfielder Cody Bellinger ahead of Tuesday’s deadline, according to Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The Cubs’ decision takes the best available rental bat off the market, furthering limiting options for clubs looking to upgrade their offense amid a thin market for position players. Per Rogers, the Cubs figure to shift their focus to buying in the coming days, with bullpen help as a particular area of focus for the club.
Bellinger has been everything the Cubs could have reasonably hoped for in signing him to a one-year deal this past offseason. The 27-year-old former MVP has bounced back in a huge way from his injury-marred seasons of the past two years, posting a fantastic .315/.368/.540 slash line in 310 plate appearances for Chicago this season while playing quality defense both in center field and at first base. He’s striking out just 16.1% of the time, a career-best mark, and his ISO of .225, while still a far cry from the .274 figure of his first four seasons, is nonetheless a major improvement over the .162 figure he posted during his last two seasons in LA.
While Bellinger’s performance hasn’t been entirely supported by more advanced metrics this season, as evidenced by his .381 wOBA greatly outstripping his .328 xwOBA, even his underlying performance has been that of a clearly above-average regular. In retaining their star outfielder, the club will have the option to extend him a Qualifying Offer following the 2023 campaign, an option they appear all but certain to take, barring a major injury change the trajectory of Bellinger’s free agency. Should the Cubs extend him a QO, they’ll receive draft pick compensation in the event that he signs elsewhere this offseason, as they did with catcher Willson Contreras this past offseason.
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco examined the best possible matches in a Bellinger trade earlier this month, highlighting the Astros, Giants, and Yankees as the best fits in the process. Those clubs and others who planned to pursue Bellinger’s services will now have to look elsewhere to upgrade their outfield. Tommy Pham and Mark Canha of the Mets, Lane Thomas of the Nationals, and Dylan Carlson of the Cardinals are among the top options available. That being said, only Pham is a rental option among that group, with the rest presumably coming at a higher acquisition cost thanks to their additional years of control.
With Bellinger now off the market, it remains to be seen whether the Cubs will adopt a similar course of action regarding right-hander Marcus Stroman. The situation regarding the veteran right-hander has gotten plenty of attention in recent weeks given Stroman’s public desire for a long-term extension in Chicago and the Cubs’ disinclination to discuss such an arrangement.
While it’s possible the Cubs’ stance on extending Stroman has changed following the club’s recent hot stretch, it’s also possible that Stroman’s recent performance could present a new obstacle in any negotiations. While the righty sports a solid 3.51 ERA and 3.60 FIP across 22 starts this season, Stroman’s past six starts have seen those figures balloon up from 2.28 and 3.36, respectively, due to the 32-year-old hurler allowing a whopping 28 runs (24 earned) in 27 innings of work since his start on June 25 in London.
That the Cubs are turning their attention to the bullpen is hardly a surprise. The club has gotten excellent production out of Stroman, Justin Steele, and Kyle Hendricks at the front of their rotation, while Drew Smyly has proven to be a serviceable back-end starter over the past two seasons. Jameson Taillon has struggled mightily this season, with a 5.46 ERA in 18 starts, but he’s in just the first year of a four-year, $68MM contract and has pitched to a 1.78 ERA over his past five starts, making it unlikely the club would spend prospect capital to remove the veteran hurler from their rotation.
That leaves the bullpen as a much clearer place to upgrade, as the Cubs sport a middle-of-the-pack 4.05 bullpen ERA entering play today. Right-handers Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr. have all put up solid seasons, with Alzolay in particular impressing as the club’s closer. Still, it’s easy to see how the club could benefit from a steady veteran option such as Paul Sewald of the Mariners or Scott Barlow of the Royals. Those two arms in particular come with an additional year of team control, which could be particularly valuable to a team at the beginning of a new competitive window like Chicago.
While Rogers doesn’t indicate the Cubs are expected to add at the position, first base has been something of a disaster for the Cubs this season. Bellinger’s positional flexibility and a surprisingly solid season from fourth outfielder Mike Tauchman have helped to patch up the issue, but significant struggles from youngster Matt Mervis and veteran Trey Mancini have left the club with a 97 wRC+ at the position even after factoring in Bellinger’s contributions. C.J. Cron of the Rockies, Jeimer Candelario of the Nationals and Adam Duvall of the Red Sox are trade candidates who the Cubs could turn to at the position should they pursue an upgrade.
Rangers Acquire Max Scherzer From Mets
The Rangers and Mets have agreed to a trade that will see the star right-hander Max Scherzer head to Texas, with prospect Luisangel Acuña heading the other way. The Mets are paying down all but $22.5MM of the remaining money owed to Scherzer, who will waive his no-trade clause. He will also trigger his player option for 2024, forgoing his opt-out opportunity.
The Mets signed Scherzer to a three-year, $130MM deal going into the 2022 season, as part of a high-spending strategy aimed at contention. The first year generally went well, as the Mets won 101 games with Scherzer contributing 23 starts of 2.29 ERA ball. This year hasn’t been nearly as successful, however, as the Mets have slumped to 49-54 and 6.5 games out of a playoff spot. It seems they have accepted the fact that they have to do some selling, having already flipped David Robertson to the Marlins.
That’s also come with diminished results from Scherzer, who has posted an ERA of 4.01 this year, working around a 10-game sticky stuff suspension earlier in the season. His strikeouts have dipped this season, with his 27.3% rate representing his lowest since 2011.
With the Mets struggling, it’s led to speculation about how they would react. Impending free agents like Robertson, Tommy Pham and others seemed like natural trade candidates, but Scherzer’s situation was more complicated. As mentioned, he had a full no-trade clause and would need to agree to any deal. It was reported in June that he was willing to waive that clause under certain circumstances, though without concrete information about what it would take for him to do so.
Further complicating matters was Scherzer’s ability to opt out of the final year of his deal, leaving $43.33MM on the table. Some sources describe this as a player option, though the situation is the same either way, with Scherzer getting to decide whether to become a free agent or not. He spoke about his situation earlier this week, saying that he’s “not going to be a free agent” and “can see a path to contend next year” with the Mets. Though he also said he would speak with the front office about the club’s direction.
He’s still owed just under $15MM for the remainder of this season, on top of the $43.33MM for next year, a total just north of $58MM. Whatever return the Rangers were willing to send to the Mets might have taken a different shape if they were to view Scherzer as a rental or a pickup for a year and a half with a massive salary. They reportedly wanted Scherzer to lock in that 2024 season, which he has now apparently done.
Since the Mets are paying down all but $22.5MM, that means they’re eating more than $35MM in this deal. The Mets have shown a tendency to eat money in trades in order to maximize returns, such as sending Eduardo Escobar to the Angels and James McCann to the Orioles, and have done so here.
The Rangers have been clearly looking for starting pitching recently, having been connected to Lance Lynn, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Verlander and Scherzer. They have had a couple of rotation setbacks this year, most notably the loss of Jacob deGrom. He was signed to a five-year, $185MM guarantee in the offseason but required Tommy John surgery in June, putting him out for the remainder of this year and some of 2024 as well. They also lost Jake Odorizzi to a season-ending shoulder surgery.
The club has operated for most of the season with a rotation of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Martín Pérez and Andrew Heaney, with Dane Dunning stepping in for deGrom. The results from that group have been varied, with Eovaldi’s 2.69 ERA the lowest and Pérez the highest at 4.91. Dunning is at 3.28 but with a 15.5% strikeout rate that’s well below league average. Since his .269 batting average on balls in play and 77.5% strand rate are on the lucky side, his 4.26 FIP and 4.88 SIERA suggest he’s skirted around some runs. He’s the only member of the rotation with options and could perhaps wind up in the minors as depth, though he’s also worked out of the bullpen before. Additionally, Eovaldi is dealing with some elbow soreness, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. He’s not going on the IL yet but his scheduled start is being pushed back. Although Scherzer’s not having his best season, he would still be an upgrade for that group. By sticking around for 2024, he will also help them cover for Pérez becoming a free agent, with deGrom potentially returning later in the year.
The Rangers are currently 60-44 and hold a two-game lead over the Astros in the American League West, with the third-place Angels aggressively pursuing upgrades as well. The Rangers haven’t made the postseason since 2016, which was also the last time they finished above .500. They’ve shown a willingness to be very aggressive in recent years as they look to get out of that spiral, giving out huge deals to players like Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, as well as the aforementioned starting pitchers. They’ve already bolstered their bullpen by acquiring Aroldis Chapman and now have made a massive move for their rotation.
It was reported this week that the club would be open to surpassing the $233MM base threshold of the luxury tax for Verlander, though it remains to be seen if they will do the same for Scherzer. Roster Resource currently lists their CBT figure at $224MM, or $9MM below the line. Assuming the $22.5MM they are paying Scherzer is evenly distributed between now and the end of next year, they’ll be adding just under $6MM to that. That will leave them shy of the line for now but further moves could tip the scales.
In order to obtain Scherzer’s services, the club has parted with Acuña. The 21-year-old shortstop is the younger brother of Atlanta’s superstar outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Signed out of Venezuela in 2018, he has climbed through the minor league ranks to reach Double-A. In 84 games at that level this year, he’s hitting .315/.377/.453 for a wRC+ of 121 while stealing 42 bases. Baseball America currently lists him at the #87 prospect in the league while FanGraphs has him at #56. BA suspects he’ll have to move to second base eventually but that he could be a solid regular there.
As for the Mets, this could perhaps give some hint as to how far they are willing to go in trading from this year’s roster in order to acquire help for future seasons. They’ve already traded Robertson and could shop other impending free agents like Pham and Carlos Carrasco. Mark Canha and Brooks Raley could also make sense, though they are pure rentals since the club has options for 2024. Omar Narváez and Adam Ottavino have player options for 2024. José Quintana‘s contract runs through 2024 and he has received some trade interest.
The bigger fish, though, is Verlander. He just signed a two-year deal in the offseason that pays him $43.33MM per year, matching Scherzer’s salary, with a conditional $35MM option for 2025 as well. Like Scherzer, he also has a full no-trade clause and said just a few days ago that the club hadn’t yet approached him about waiving it. But it was later reported that the club would only approach the players about their clauses after finding workable trade packages, which seems to have been the case in this Scherzer deal.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Michael Schwab of Juice Box Journal first reported that the Rangers had a deal in place for Scherzer, contingent on him waiving his no-trade clause. Andy Martino of Steve Gelbs of SNY relayed that Scherzer would waive his clause, but that the financial components of the deal weren’t complete. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported on Acuña’s inclusion in the deal, as well as the fact that the Rangers wanted him to forego his opt-out at season’s end and that the deal was done. Martino relayed the financials while Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that Scherzer will trigger in his 2024 option, with Heyman adding that he’ll receive some additional amenities for doing so.
Top 50 Trade Candidates: Deadline Edition
Three weeks ago, MLBTR released a preliminary list of the top 50 deadline trade candidates. The top player on that list (Lucas Giolito) has already moved, as has #7 (David Robertson). Another from the top ten, Shane Bieber, suffered an injury that tanks the chances he’ll be dealt.
With a little more than 72 hours before the deadline, we’ll refresh that group. This isn’t a ranking of players’ trade value, nor is it solely about likelihood of being moved. We’re trying to balance both of those things, which inherently involves subjectivity. A player in the top ten might have significantly less appeal than someone at the bottom of the list, but if they’re far more likely to be dealt for a return of note, they’ll be higher on this kind of ranking.
On to the list:
1. Jordan Montgomery, SP, Cardinals
With Giolito off the board, Montgomery is the best impending free agent starter who’s all but assured to move. The southpaw has a career-best 3.42 ERA over 21 starts with average or better strikeout (21.2%), walk (6.9%) and ground-ball (44.4%) marks. The Cardinals are openly turning their attention to 2024 and reportedly haven’t engaged Montgomery’s camp in any extension talks. The Dodgers, Rangers and Rays are among the teams that have been tied to his market, but virtually any contender with a desire to bolster the rotation would make sense. He’s making $10MM in his final arbitration season.
2. Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Nationals
Candelario has rebounded from a bad final season in Detroit to hit .254/.335/.478 with 16 homers in 410 plate appearances for Washington. The rebuilding Nationals have gotten more than they could’ve expected out of a $5MM free agent investment and are now positioned to cash Candelario in for young talent. He’s a switch-hitter with power and a solid plate approach. His third base defense has been up-and-down throughout his career, but he’s rating well there this season.
Playing designated hitter last night, Candelario hurt his left shoulder sliding into second base. The Nats were surely holding their breath, but Candelario said postgame he was unconcerned and would’ve been able to continue playing if his turn in the batting order came back around (via Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com). Assuming that doesn’t prove anything more than a minor scare, he should be on the move. The Marlins and Angels have reportedly had some conversations with Washington.
3. Michael Lorenzen, SP, Tigers
Lorenzen has proven an adept free agent pickup for the Tigers. He’s probably a hair below Montgomery on most teams’ preference lists, but the overall profile is similar. The righty is a rental starter who carries a 3.58 ERA over 105 2/3 innings on a bad Detroit team. His 19.9% strikeout rate is a tick below average, but he’s only walking 6.5% of opponents. A first-time All-Star, Lorenzen is playing on an $8.5MM guarantee. The Orioles, Astros, Rays and Marlins have all reportedly checked in on the Tigers’ asking price.
4. Tommy Pham, OF, Mets
The Robertson trade made clear the Mets were at least open to moving short-term assets. Pham is the most appealing of their remaining rentals. The veteran outfielder has overcome a slow start to hit .265/.347/.460 with nine homers in 259 plate appearances. He has always mashed left-handed pitching (as one would expect for a righty hitter), but he’s producing against pitchers of either handedness in 2023. Pham’s $6MM salary is affordable and he’s one of the better impending free agent hitters available. The Dodgers and Phillies have expressed interest, but any contender with a corner outfield need and/or a desire to add some right-handed pop would fit.
5. Jack Flaherty, SP, Cardinals
6. Jordan Hicks, RP, Cardinals
Montgomery is the most valuable of the Cardinals’ rentals. He’s certainly not the only player St. Louis will move in the next three days, though. Flaherty is also headed to free agency with no sign of an extension. The righty has a 4.43 ERA with average strikeout and grounder rates over 109 2/3 innings. He’s issuing a few too many walks, but he’s a capable back-end starter who has shown more than that in the past. Flaherty acknowledged after Wednesday’s start that he’d be surprised if he makes another appearance as a Cardinal (link via Katie Woo of the Athletic). He’s making $5.4MM in his final arbitration season.
Hicks is one of the sport’s hardest-throwing relievers. He has pitched back into a high-leverage role with a 3.67 ERA and elite strikeout (31.2%) and grounder (58.3%) rates. While the strike-throwing is erratic, few pitchers can match this kind of stuff. Hicks and the Cardinals have talked extension in recent days, but those conversations have reportedly stalled out. Unless the sides rekindle negotiations late, he’ll be moved. Hicks is making just $1.8MM in his final arbitration season and has drawn reported interest from the Yankees, Rangers, Rays and Diamondbacks.
7. Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, Tigers
Perhaps no available starter is pitching as well as Rodriguez. The left-hander owns a 2.95 ERA in 88 1/3 innings. He’s striking out more than a quarter of opponents against a 6% walk rate. Rodriguez looks like the #2/3 caliber starter Detroit was targeting when they signed him to a five-year free agent deal two offseasons back.
As had been discussed ad nauseam, the complicating factor is the contract. Rodriguez is playing this season on a $14MM salary — strong value for a club given his production — but can opt out of the final three years and $49MM on the deal at season’s end. He’s likely going to do so, but a second-half injury could change that equation. Detroit has to prepare for the possibility he hits free agency and should be motivated to move him, while potential buyers have to weigh the downside associated with the opt-out clause. Rodriguez seems likely to move but it’s not as straightforward as dealing a true rental.
8. Dylan Carlson, OF, Cardinals
Carlson probably has more trade value than any other Cardinal on this list. The switch-hitting outfielder looked like a potential franchise center fielder a year ago. Yet his offense has stalled out right around league average, as he carries a .235/.333/.352 showing over 228 plate appearances. Carlson has been a good player but not the impact bat St. Louis had been expecting.
St. Louis moved him to the bench when Tyler O’Neill returned from the injured list. With O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker in the outfield, Carlson looks like a change-of-scenery candidate. The Cards have explored offers, with the Yankees among the teams known to have interest. Still 24 and with three and a half seasons of remaining control, Carlson has a lot of appeal, even if it’s not at the same level as it would’ve been a few months ago.
9. Scott Barlow, RP, Royals
There have been surprisingly few ties to Barlow since Kansas City expressed an openness to offers two months ago. That’s presumably more a reflection of Royals’ brass playing things close to the vest than a lack of interest. The 30-year-old righty is an appealing trade target for contenders, even if his 5.50 ERA over 37 2/3 innings wouldn’t suggest as much.
Barlow allowed fewer than 2.50 earned runs per nine in 2021-22. He has seen a worrying spike in walks this year, contributing to the lesser results, but he’s missing bats on a solid 12.7% of his offerings with an above-average 26.2% strikeout rate. Barlow isn’t as valuable a target as he was last summer, and a brutal July in which he’s allowed 10 runs in eight innings isn’t doing the Royals any favors. There’s still value here, though, particularly since he has an additional season of arbitration control and is playing on a fairly modest $5.3MM salary.
10. Mark Canha, OF, Mets
Canha is another short-term veteran for the Mets. The outfielder is making $10.5MM this season. His contract contains an $11.5MM club option for next year. Given his fine but unexceptional performance, it seems that’s trending towards a $2MM buyout. If the Mets aren’t planning to keep Canha around, there’s little reason not to pull the trigger this summer.
The right-handed hitter owns a .239/.338/.375 line with six homers through 296 trips to the plate. He’s drawing plenty of walks and striking out at a career-low 17.2% clip, though he’s not hitting for much power. While Canha isn’t an impact bat, he’s a generally above-average hitter who plays solid corner outfield defense and can handle center in a pinch.
11. Paul DeJong, SS, Cardinals
12. Chris Stratton, RP, Cardinals
The next tier of Cardinal rentals, DeJong and Stratton also seem likely to change uniforms. The former has rebounded from a couple terrible offensive seasons to hit at a league average level (.238/.303/.421). He struggles to get on base against right-handed pitching but mashes lefties and plays plus defense at shortstop. DeJong’s $9MM salary is high but not untenable, especially given an overall down middle infield market. His contract contains a $12.5MM club option that seems likely to be bought out for $2MM.
Stratton is a straightforward middle relief trade candidate. He’s making $2.8MM in his final arbitration season. The right-hander owns a 4.36 ERA with above-average strikeout (26.7%) and walk (7.7%) marks in 53 2/3 innings. It won’t be a franchise-altering return, but he’s the kind of solid bullpen arm contenders always need around the deadline.
13. Paul Sewald, RP, Mariners
Sewald is an impact late-game arm. The righty has a 2.93 ERA through 43 frames while striking out over 35% of batters faced. For the third consecutive season, he’s getting swinging strikes on more than 14% of his offerings. Playing on a $4.1MM salary with another year of arbitration control, he’d draw plenty of interest.
Seattle doesn’t have to deal him. They’re fringe contenders this year and certainly not kicking off a rebuild. Yet they have plenty of bullpen depth and could view Sewald as a somewhat expendable player if they can net a promising hitter with an extended team control window. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported last night the M’s were open to offers.
14. Blake Snell, SP, Padres
15. Josh Hader, RP, Padres
Snell and Hader would have the potential to shoot up this list if we had time to reevaluate things on Tuesday. They’d be arguably the top two rentals if the Padres put them on the market. Snell has a 2.61 ERA with a 30.8% strikeout rate over 21 starts. Hader is operating at peak form, allowing fewer than one earned run per nine while punching out upwards of 38% of opponents.
The question, as it has been for months, is whether San Diego would move them. Four days ago, the answer seemed to be a clear no. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote on Tuesday morning the Friars had rebuffed inquiries from other clubs. Subsequent reports suggested they were a little more open to offers but still preferred to hold the duo and make a playoff push. San Diego is six games out of a Wild Card spot and could take this one right down to the wire.
16. Teoscar Hernández, OF, Mariners
Hernández wouldn’t have the same appeal as Sewald, but the calculus for Seattle is similar. They’re a season-high three games above .500 and 4.5 out of a Wild Card spot with four teams to jump. They’re unlikely to throw in the towel but could look to move short-term pieces, particularly if they can land immediate MLB talent with a longer control window.
It’s hard to consider Hernández’s tenure in Seattle as anything other than a disappointment so far. He’s hitting .236/.287/.410 over 432 trips to the plate. He’s playing better defense than expected but hasn’t come anywhere close to the middle-of-the-order offensive form of his final three seasons in Toronto. Whether Seattle would make him a qualifying offer when he hits free agency next winter now seems a question. Hernández is making $14MM for his final arbitration season.
17. Seth Lugo, SP, Padres
The Padres face a similar question on Lugo as they do with Snell and Hader. The righty has taken well to his return to permanent rotation work, posting a 3.62 ERA with a solid 23.4% strikeout percentage and an excellent 4.6% walk rate. He’s outperforming his $7.5MM salary and looks like a lock (barring injury) to decline a matching player option for next season.
If the Friars concede they’re unlikely to make the playoffs and move Snell and Hader, there’s little reason not to do the same with Lugo. The trade return wouldn’t be as strong for the 33-year-old as it would be with his higher-profile teammates, but he’d quietly be one of the better arms available.
18. Keynan Middleton, RP, White Sox
There’s no suspense with the White Sox’s direction. They’ve already shipped off a handful of relievers and Middleton’s a virtual lock to follow. An offseason minor league signee, the righty has exceeded expectations with a 3.82 ERA and 30.7% strikeout rate over 35 1/3 innings. He’s an affordable middle inning arm headed back to the open market at year’s end. There’s little reason for the Sox not to move him for a mid-tier prospect.
19. Randal Grichuk, OF, Rockies
20. C.J. Cron, 1B, Rockies
21. Brent Suter, RP, Rockies
22. Brad Hand, RP, Rockies
An assortment of impending free agents on a last-place Colorado team, all four of these players look likely to move. Grichuk is a right-handed hitter who can cover all three outfield spots and is destroying left-handed pitching this season. He has dramatic home-road splits but fits as a role player on a contender. Cron had a terrible start to the year while seemingly playing through back discomfort that eventually sent him to the injured list. He’s hitting .308/.338/.569 since coming off the IL and could appeal to a team looking for a right-handed power bat off the bench. The Rockies owe Grichuk $5MM this season, while Cron is making $7.5MM.
Suter is playing on a $3MM arbitration salary. The left-hander has a 2.51 ERA in 46 2/3 innings despite a middling 20.5% strikeout rate. Hand is playing on a $1.5MM salary with a $500K buyout on an option that’d become a mutual provision if he’s traded. His 4.76 ERA isn’t inspiring but he’s striking out more than a quarter of opponents. The Rockies have indicated more of a willingness to trade their rentals than in years past and already shipped Pierce Johnson to Atlanta.
23. Brooks Raley, RP, Mets
Raley is another short-term veteran for the Mets. New York holds a $6.5MM option on his services and could keep him around for another season, though they might view this as a good chance to cash him in. The lefty reliever has a 2.43 ERA over 37 innings. He’s issuing a few too many walks but striking out a quarter of batters faced while making $4.5MM.
24. Tim Anderson, SS, White Sox
Anderson is having a brutal offensive season, putting up just a .239/.282/.279 batting line without a home run in 348 plate appearances. He’d been an All-Star caliber player for a few seasons before this, one of the game’s best contact hitters with plus speed and decent shortstop defense. It’s an inopportune time for the ChiSox to move him, but Anderson has played poorly enough the club no longer seems assured of even exercising his $14MM option for next season. They’re reportedly open to offers on all but a few core players. Anderson, who is making $12.5MM this year, has drawn some reported attention from the Marlins.
25. Giovanny Gallegos, RP, Cardinals
Gallegos is less likely than the Cardinals above him on this list to move. He’s under contract for at least one more season at an affordable $5.5MM rate, while the club holds an option for 2025. With plans to reload in ’24, St. Louis could find it more desirable to hold one of their better relievers. Reports this week indicated the Cards were at least open to offers on Gallegos, though, as he could plausibly land some upper minors starting pitching which the organization desires. The 31-year-old righty owns a 3.77 ERA with a decent 24.1% strikeout rate and excellent 5.2% walk percentage over 43 innings. He has allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine in each of the past five seasons.
26. Paul Blackburn, SP, A’s
Blackburn is one of Oakland’s top starters. The righty battled finger/hand issues early in the season but has returned to pitch 10 times. His 5.06 ERA through 48 innings isn’t eye-catching, but his 22.2% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk percentage are around league average. Blackburn looks like a serviceable #4/5 starter. He’s making only $1.9MM and eligible for arbitration for two seasons beyond this one. The A’s don’t have to move him, but as a 29-year-old back-end starter, he’s likely not viewed as a building block of the ongoing rebuild.
27. Justin Verlander, SP, Mets
28. Max Scherzer, SP, Mets
The future Hall of Fame rotation duo could serve as a litmus test for how the Mets view their chances beyond this season. New York is clearly open to selling impending free agents but will reload for 2024. Do they still envision the pair of veteran star hurlers anchoring their next contending rotation?
Neither Verlander nor Scherzer has pitched at peak levels this season, though they’ve still been above-average MLB starters. They’re tied for the loftiest annual salary in big league history at $43.333MM. Verlander is signed through 2024 with a vesting/player option for ’25; Scherzer has a player option for next season which he seems inclined to exercise. Both have full no-trade protection but may be willing to waive it to facilitate a move to a club with World Series aspirations in 2023. There are a lot of roadblocks to a deal. The Mets would have to pay down some of the money; the players have to agree; the team has to find acceptable young talent. Yet if things all came together on either player, there would probably be no bigger name changing teams.
29. Cody Bellinger, OF, Cubs
30. Marcus Stroman, SP, Cubs
Had we published this list at the start of the week, Bellinger and Stroman would quite likely have placed within the top five. Such is the nature of deadline season, when teams can change their fortunes rapidly. Mike Tauchman’s game-saving catch last night in St. Louis pushed Chicago’s win streak to seven. Suddenly, they’re above .500 and only 3.5 games out of a playoff spot (and 4.5 back in the division).
President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and chairman Tom Ricketts have maintained all summer they’d prefer to add if the club played well enough. The team has gotten hot at the last moment and given the front office reason to avoid a sale. Whether they’ll do so remains to be seen — they were reportedly undecided four days ago — but Bellinger and Stroman deals no longer seem assured (or even likely). Jon Heyman of the New York Post unsurprisingly tweeted last night the team’s strong recent play could lead the front office to reconsider trading away veterans.
31. José Cisnero, RP, Tigers
32. Chasen Shreve, RP, Tigers
Cisnero and Shreve are on the opposite end of the spectrum of the players directly above them on the list. Neither Detroit reliever would grab many headlines but they seem very likely to move as impending free agents. Cisnero, a 34-year-old righty, has a 3.86 ERA with above-average strikeout and walk numbers over 39 2/3 innings. He’s making $2.29MM in his final arbitration season. Shreve, a 33-year-old southpaw, carries a middling 4.70 ERA but solid peripherals in 38 1/3 frames. He’s making $1.25MM.
33. Rich Hill, SP, Pirates
Few players are as familiar with trade rumors as Hill. The veteran southpaw looks likely to move again after the Pirates fell out of the mix. He’s not having an exceptional season — 4.82 ERA, 19.1% strikeout rate over 114 innings — but he’s a respected clubhouse presence who could fit as a fifth or sixth starter on a contender seeking rotation depth. Hill is playing on an $8MM salary.
34. José Quintana, SP, Mets
Quintana has found himself in trade rumors all of two starts into his Mets’ tenure. The veteran southpaw required rib surgery in Spring Training that cost him the first half of the season. He has looked good in his two outings — five runs allowed in 11 innings — but would be an unconventional trade candidate given the limited workload. Quintana is making $13MM apiece in 2023-24. The Mets could probably find a taker for the bulk of that money but seem unlikely to get a solid prospect return unless they pay down a notable chunk of the deal. Whether that’s preferable to simply keeping him as part of next year’s rotation is to be determined.
35. Carlos Hernández, RP, Royals
36. Alex Lange, RP, Tigers
37. Kyle Finnegan, RP, Nationals
38. Aaron Bummer, RP, White Sox
This group has extended control windows, but non-competitive teams can be more willing to relinquish a reliever than deal a controllable starter or bat. Hernández has wipeout stuff and has found his stride in the bullpen this season after a rocky career as a starter. He’ll be eligible for arbitration for the first time next winter and is controllable through 2027. Lange blends strong strikeout and grounder rates with well below-average control. He’s more volatile than the average reliever but has consecutive sub-4.00 ERA seasons and has saved 17 games for Detroit. Lange is also controllable for another four and a half years.
Finnegan has two and a half years of arbitration left. He’s making $2.3MM this season. A fastball-heavy righty, he has a 3.12 ERA with average peripherals across 43 1/3 innings. Finnegan has gotten the closer role in Washington with 14 saves but profiles better as a middle reliever for a contender.
Bummer is making $3.75MM this season, $5.5MM next year, and has club options covering 2025-26. The southpaw is allowing nearly seven earned runs per nine but has much stronger peripherals — including a 28.2% strikeout percentage and huge 54.2% grounder rate. Opposing teams will look beyond the ERA and the Sox have shown a willingness to listen on their relievers, dealing Joe Kelly and Kendall Graveman despite controlling both beyond this season. Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggested (on Twitter) this morning that Chicago was more inclined to keep Bummer, but he has reportedly drawn interest from contenders.
39. Carlos Carrasco, SP, Mets
40. Adam Ottavino, RP, Mets
The Mets would presumably be happy to find a taker for Carrasco and/or Ottavino. The former is an impending free agent, while the latter has a $6.75MM player option next season. They might be hard-pressed to find interest, however. Carrasco is making $14MM this year and has a 5.82 ERA with worse than average strikeout and walk marks over 14 starts. Ottavino’s 3.40 ERA and 57.4% grounder rate are each excellent, but his strikeout to walk profile is middling. While he’s a respected high-leverage reliever, the player option saps a decent amount of the appeal.
41. Lane Thomas, OF, Nationals
How to proceed with Thomas is probably the toughest decision the Washington front office faces this summer. He’s having a strong year, hitting .287/.335/.477 with 16 longballs in 445 trips to the dish. The bulk of that production has been platoon-heavy; Thomas is teeing off on lefties (.364/.410/.643) compared to slightly below-average production versus righty pitching (.252/.301/.401).
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote this week that was causing a discrepancy between the Nats and possible suitors on Thomas’ value. Rosenthal indicated the Nats viewed him as a quality regular while the market perceived him as more of a high-end platoon player. If that remains the case, the Nationals would probably hold him. He’s making just $2.2MM and eligible for arbitration through 2025. If the scarcity of productive bats leads other teams to up their offers in the next few days, the Nats could look to move him.
42. Elias Díaz, C, Rockies
Díaz would have a decent amount of appeal on a trade market light on catching talent. The All-Star Game MVP has a .270/.328/.419 line with 10 homers across 348 plate appearances. Playing in Coors Field helps — Díaz’s power numbers are predictably much better at home than on the road — but he’s a solid hitter for a catcher. He’s never gotten good reviews from public pitch framing metrics but has plus arm strength and is adept at blocking balls in the dirt.
Colorado will have a higher ask on Díaz than on the rentals listed above. He’s making only $5.5MM this season and under contract for $6MM next year.
43. Aaron Civale, SP, Guardians
If the Guardians were to deal from their controllable rotation options for offensive help, Civale is the candidate. Cleveland probably won’t part with any of their rookie hurlers, while injuries to Bieber, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill take them out of the equation. The Guardians rolled the dice on Noah Syndergaard a few days ago to help address that injury-plagued starting staff, perhaps easing some concerns about the rotation depth if they listened on Civale.
The right-hander has a 2.54 ERA over 12 starts. His strikeout/walk profile is more akin to that of the solid #3/4 starter he’s been throughout his career as opposed to a budding ace. That’s still plenty valuable, though, particularly since Civale is only making $2.6MM. He’s eligible for arbitration two more times. The Guardians aren’t going to give him away; they’d likely only make a move if it netted them immediate lineup help as they look to track down the Twins in the AL Central.
44. Joey Bart, C, Giants
Bart has seemed an obvious change-of-scenery candidate for a few months. The former #2 overall pick has been passed as San Francisco’s catcher of the future by Patrick Bailey. He’s on optional assignment to Triple-A, hitting .218/.304/.353 in 34 games.
The right-handed hitter has been plagued by swing-and-miss at the big league level. He’s a career .223/.293/.342 hitter in 158 contests, striking out nearly 36% of the time. This is his final minor league option season, so he’s running low on time to establish himself as a regular. The opportunity is probably never coming again in San Francisco, but teams like the Marlins or Yankees could give him a look.
45. Mark Leiter Jr., RP, Cubs
46. Michael Fulmer, RP, Cubs
Leiter and Fulmer are the next tier down of trade candidates if the Cubs did decide to sell. The former has a 3.14 ERA with excellent strikeout (31.4%) and grounder (50.5%) rates in 43 innings. He’s arbitration-eligible through 2026 but would never have more trade appeal than he does now. If the Cubs push in this year, they won’t move him, but if they deal Bellinger/Stroman, selling high on Leiter would be a natural next step. Fulmer has pitched well of late and carries a 4.40 ERA with a 26.4% strikeout rate in 45 frames. He’s playing on a $4MM salary and will head back to the open market at year’s end.
47. Jonathan India, 2B, Reds
India found himself in rumors early this week when MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported the Reds were open to moving him for controllable starting pitching. Subsequent reports categorized that more as a matter of due diligence and indicated an offseason deal was more likely. India has a fair bit of trade appeal with three and a half seasons of remaining arbitration control but isn’t likely to fetch an impact starter with multiple control years on his own. He’d started the year strong but slumped of late, leaving him with a league average .251/.336/.409 slash on the season.
48. Adam Duvall, OF, Red Sox
The Red Sox have played their way out of consideration of selling. A five-game win streak pulls them within a game and a half of a Wild Card spot. They’re going to add over the next few days, likely on the pitching side. Still, they could dealing ancillary pieces off the MLB roster — particularly if it nets them pitching help — and Duvall seems the likeliest candidate.
He’d been scorching hot through the season’s first couple weeks but broke his wrist in mid-April. Jarren Duran seized the center field job between Alex Verdugo and Masataka Yoshida in the interim. Duvall hasn’t hit since coming off the IL, posting a .211/.279/.375 line with a 36.4% strikeout rate in 34 games. Still, there could be interest from clubs with a more direct path to outfield playing time; the Phillies and Braves have been speculated as possible fits. Duvall is making $7MM and is an impending free agent.
49. David Bednar, RP, Pirates
50. Mitch Keller, SP, Pirates
Bednar and Keller have come up in loose trade chatter this week. It seems more due diligence than anything else, with multiple reports suggesting a trade of either is unlikely. Bednar is an elite reliever and Pittsburgh native who’s controllable through 2026. Keller, a former top prospect, has developed into an upper mid-rotation arm and is eligible for arbitration for two and a half seasons. There’ll be plenty of interest but huge asking prices on both.
Others To Watch
A’s: Seth Brown, Tony Kemp, Ramón Laureano, Sam Moll
Angels: Jo Adell
Astros: Jake Meyers
Blue Jays: Santiago Espinal
Brewers: Víctor Caratini
Cardinals: Alec Burleson, Ryan Helsley, Iván Herrera
Cubs: Yan Gomes, Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly
Giants: Alex Wood
Mariners: Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, Tom Murphy, Bryan Woo
Mets: Omar Narváez, Drew Smith
Nationals: Trevor Williams
Padres: Luis Garcia, Nick Martinez
Pirates: Ji Man Choi, Austin Hedges, Colin Holderman
Red Sox: Bobby Dalbec
Reds: Kevin Newman, Nick Senzel
Rockies: Jurickson Profar
Royals: Matt Duffy, Nicky Lopez, Brady Singer
Tigers: Jason Foley, Tyler Holton
Twins: Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach
White Sox: Yasmani Grandal, Michael Kopech, Gregory Santos
Yankees: Gleyber Torres, Wandy Peralta
Mozeliak: Cardinals Are Not Trading Nolan Arenado
The Cardinals are not trading Nolan Arenado, with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak firmly stating that fact to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. There was a report earlier this week that the Dodgers had strong interest in the third baseman and were discussing a deal, but it seems those talks won’t lead to Arenado leaving St. Louis. “I have stated we are not trading him, have not asked him to waive his no-trade clause,” Mozeliak said. “So at this time, we are working on building for future success.”
Despite the reported talks with the Dodgers, there were inherent obstacles to getting a deal done. For one thing, Arenado and the Cardinals seem to have a good relationship, as he didn’t trigger his opt-out opportunity at the end of last year. Most observers agreed he could have beat the five years and $144MM remaining on the deal, but he chose to stay, seemingly happy to stick with the organization as opposed to maximizing his earnings.
Since he has a full no-trade clause, he would have to sign off on any deal, and it would be surprising for him to do so after just waiving that opt-out chance. The report on the talks with the Dodgers indicated he was willing to accept a deal only to the Dodgers, having always wanted to play for them as a Southern California native. But Arenado told reporters last night that he had not been approached about his clause.
Beyond the contractual complications, all indications have suggested the Cards are planning to sell some pieces but still try to contend again next year. Since Arenado is one of the better players in the game, it would be hard to imagine a scenario wherein they subtract him from the roster and make their 2024 team better. The Cards do have a surplus of position players and a dearth of pitching, so perhaps one could make the argument that even “losing” a trade that makes the pitching staff better would be a net victory, but the easier path is just to keep Arenado and find other ways of upgrading the pitching staff.
Although Arenado is apparently sticking around, it still seems like Mozeliak and his staff will be busy in the next few days. The Cardinals are currently 46-59 and 11 games out of a playoff spot. Mozeliak has already admitted that the club will have to do some selling, making moves that are more focused on upgrading the 2024 club. That will seemingly lead to trades of impending free agents like Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and Jordan Hicks between now and the August 1 deadline.
Latest On Justin Verlander
Few potential trade candidates are as notable as Justin Verlander. There are myriad complications that could stand in the way of a deal, but there’s been speculation over the past couple days about the chance of Verlander being on the move.
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com suggested Thursday night there was some industry sentiment the Mets would look to move him. Feinsand listed the Astros and Rangers as potential fits. Will Sammon and Tim Britton of the Athletic also indicated that the two Texas-based franchises had expressed some interest, writing that the Mets at least appear willing to genuinely consider offers on Verlander and Max Scherzer.
Still, it remains to be seen how aggressively other teams would pursue either player. Sammon and Britton characterize Texas’ interest in Verlander mostly as due diligence as they evaluate all their rotation possibilities. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote yesterday that Texas would be open to surpassing the competitive balance tax threshold in a Verlander trade. However, he similarly indicated the Rangers are checking in on virtually every pitcher on the market, with nothing to suggest Verlander talks have gotten particularly advanced. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Texas has also inquired on reliever Brooks Raley and corner outfielder Tommy Pham.
Texas has a luxury tax number around $224MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’re $9MM shy of the $233MM base threshold. Verlander is due around $15.4MM through season’s end, so an acquisition would push Texas past that marker unless the Mets paid down a significant chunk of the salary.
New York might be willing to do so. They paid down all of Eduardo Escobar’s deal and are reportedly willing to send cash in other trades, although they didn’t include any money in the David Robertson swap with Miami. There’s a ways to go to get to that point, though. New York would have to weigh the possible return against subtracting a key player who’s under contract for 2024, when the Mets surely envision a return to competitiveness.
That’s even before considering the players’ ability to block any deal. Both Verlander and Scherzer have complete no-trade rights. Understandably, neither has gone on record about whether they’d waive that provision. Verlander said a few days ago the Mets had not approached him about that possibility. Scherzer told the New York beat last night that he’d likely speak with the front office about the franchise’s direction over the next few days. Sherman indicates the Mets would only gauge the pitchers’ willingness to waive the no-trade clauses if they first find a potentially workable trade package.
Texas pursued Verlander as a free agent last winter. He reportedly wasn’t keen on joining the Rangers at the time, although that’s seemingly because he questioned how quickly they’d be competitive. That’s no longer in doubt with the Rangers topping the AL West by two games and motivated deadline buyers.
There’s plenty of familiarity between Verlander and the Astros, of course. Houston has been on the hunt for a starting pitcher for a few weeks. General manager Dana Brown downplayed the rotation need a bit after acquiring reliever Kendall Graveman yesterday, however. Brown indicated that while Houston was still open to adding a starter, the rotation is “not as high a priority as the bullpen was,” in part because of the loftier asking price teams are demanding to relinquish starting pitching (link via Chandler Rome of the Athletic).
Dodgers Acquire Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly From White Sox
The White Sox have already traded Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López to the Angels and are now sending out even more pitching. They are sending righties Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly to the Dodgers, the teams announced. Lynn had a 10-team no-trade clause, with the Dodgers on it, but waived it. The White Sox will receive pitching prospects Nick Nastrini and Jordan Leasure, as well as outfielder Trayce Thompson.
Lynn, 36, has been an effective major league starter for over a decade now, debuting back in 2011. It has been a strange season for him here in 2023, however. Through 21 starts, many of his peripherals are in line with his career marks or even better. He’s striking out 26.9% of opponents on the year, a few ticks north of his 24% career rate. His 8.4% walk rate is only slightly worse than his career 8.2% clip, while this year’s 38.1% ground ball rate is just a bit off his 42.9% career rate.
But despite all of that, he has a 6.47 earned run average, almost three full runs above his 3.71 career mark. This seems to be due to a few factors. For one thing, he’s allowed a .328 batting average on balls in play that’s well beyond the .300 mark he’s allowed in his career and the .295 league average in the majors this year. His 61.6% strand rate this year is well below his career mark of 74.6% and the 71.8% league average this year. Perhaps most importantly, he’s already allowed 28 home runs, more than any other season of his career even though there’s still a couple of months left.
20.6% of the fly balls Lynn has allowed have gone over the fence. That’s a mark that is very unlikely to be maintained going forward. Last year, the qualified pitcher with the highest rate in that department was Germán Márquez of the Rockies, who pitches half his games at Coors Field, at 16.9%. Lynn’s rate of 20.6% this year is the highest in the majors among qualified hurlers, with more than two percentage points separating him from Shohei Ohtani‘s 18.4% rate, the second-highest in that department.
Lynn’s hard hit rate is listed at 40.7% this year at Statcast, a slight bump from last year’s 38.7% rate, but it still seems fair to expect some regression towards the mean here. ERA estimators all like him better than his actual ERA, with Lynn having a 5.22 FIP, 4.82 xERA and 3.92 SIERA this year. It seems the Dodgers are banking on the fact that Lynn has actually been closer to his previous career form than a quick glance at his surface-level stats would indicate.
There are some similarities in the case of Kelly, who previously pitched for the Dodgers from 2019 to 2021. In 31 appearances this year, he’s striking out 32% of opponents while walking 9.4% and getting grounders at a 56.2% clip. All three of those figures are better than league average for a reliever, yet he has a 4.97 ERA. It’s possible that his .329 BABIP and 58.7% strand rate are pushing more runs across the board, as he has a 3.25 FIP, 3.23 xERA and 2.97 SIERA.
It seems that plenty of clubs were willing to look past the ERAs of these two pitchers, banking on their previous track records and under-the-hood numbers. In recent days, Lynn has received interest from the Rangers, Rays and Dodgers, while Kelly also received interest from the Rangers and Dodgers.
The White Sox are having a dismal season, currently sporting a record of 41-63 despite coming into the year with competitive aspirations. It was reported a few weeks back that they were willing to consider trade offers on anyone except for controllable core pieces Dylan Cease, Luis Robert Jr. Eloy Jiménez and Andrew Vaughn. Rental pitchers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López were flipped to the Angels earlier this week.
Lynn and Kelly were both also logical trade pieces since they are each in the final seasons of their respective contracts, though both also have 2024 options. Lynn is making $18.5MM this year, with about $6.48MM left to be paid out. His deal also contains an $18MM club option for 2024 with a $1MM buyout. Kelly is making $9MM this year, with about $3.15MM left to be paid, then has a $9.5MM club option with $1MM buyout.
The Dodgers have plenty of need for pitching, having suffered through a litany of injuries this year. Starters Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Dustin May and Ryan Pepiot are on the injured list, with Noah Syndergaard having been there as well until he got traded to the Guardians. That’s forced the club to turn to rookies like Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan and Michael Grove, alongside Julio Urías and Tony Gonsolin. Whenever Lynn reports to the Dodgers, he’ll likely bump one of those rookies back down to Triple-A. Further pitching additions could do the same, as could the return of Kershaw later in the season.
The Dodgers also have relievers Daniel Hudson, Blake Treinen, Alex Reyes, Shelby Miller, J.P. Feyereisen, Tyler Cyr and Jimmy Nelson all on the 60-day IL. Adding an experienced veteran like Kelly will increase the depth for the stretch run. Each of Lynn and Kelly could also be retained for next year if the Dodgers so wish, which will likely depend on how they perform over the next few months.
Turning to the players going to Chicago, the headliner is Nastrini. A fourth-round pick of the Dodgers from 2021, he’s already climbed to Double-A. The 23-year-old has made 17 starts at that level this year with a 4.03 ERA, striking out 26.1% of opponents but with an 11.3% walk rate. Baseball America recently ranked him the #10 prospect in the Dodgers’ system while FanGraphs currently has him at #6.
Leasure, 24, was a 14th-round pick in 2021 and has been working exclusively in relief as a professional. He’s pitched 35 innings out of the bullpen in Double-A this year with a 3.09 ERA, striking out 39.7% of opponents but walking 11.3%.
Thompson, 32, is an immediate big league option for the Sox, or he will be once he returns from the injured list. He was drafted by the White Sox back in 2009 and made his major league debut for them in 2015. He quickly went into journeyman status, bouncing to the Dodgers, back to the White Sox, the Athletics, the Cubs, Padres and back to the Dodgers again, generally struggling in most of those opportunities.
He seemed to finally have his long-awaited breakout last year, with the Dodgers calling him up midseason and putting him into 80 games. He hit .256/.353/.507 in those for a wRC+ of 142 while providing above-average outfield defense, slotting into all three slots on the grass. Unfortunately, he struggled to keep it going into this year, hitting .155/.310/.366 before landing on the IL in early June due to a left oblique strain.
Thompson began a rehab assignment a week ago so should be able to join the White Sox in the near future. He’s making $1.45M this year and can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons after this one. The Sox have a regular outfield mix of Robert, Andrew Benintendi and Oscar Colas, with Jimenez serving as the designated hitter most of the time. Thompson could potentially spell anyone in that group while serving as a reserve outfielder alongside Gavin Sheets.
Despite plenty of injuries, the Dodgers are 58-43 and have a three-game lead in the National League West. They’ve already brought in some complementary pieces like Amed Rosario and Enrique Hernandez, now bolstering their pitching staff with a couple of new additions. The Sox have continued adding young talent as they look to salvage some future value from a disappointing season. With four days until the deadline, both clubs likely still have more moves to make.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today was the first to report that the two sides were deep in talks, with the Dodgers optimistic about getting both Lynn and Kelly. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported an agreement was close. Joel Sherman of The New York Post relayed that Lynn was willing to waive his no-trade clause. Nightengale first had the Lynn part of the deal being done. Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the Dodgers finalizing the deal for both pitchers. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the full trade.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Astros Acquire Kendall Graveman
Kendall Graveman is back with the Astros. Houston announced they acquired the right-hander in a one-for-one deal that sends young catcher Korey Lee to the White Sox.
It’s the second time in three years that the Astros are swinging a deadline trade to bring Graveman to Houston. The ‘Stros acquired Graveman and Rafael Montero from the Mariners prior to the 2021 deadline, sending Abraham Toro and Joe Smith to Seattle in that swap. Graveman shined down the stretch with Houston and parlayed his career-best season in ’21 into a three-year, $24MM deal with the White Sox. He’s currently in the second season of that contract, which pays him $8MM annually. He’s still owed about $2.84MM of that sum through season’s end, plus next year’s $8MM.
Graveman, now 32, is in the midst of a solid second campaign in Chicago. He’s sitting on a 3.48 ERA through 44 innings with eight saves and eight holds, regularly having worked in high-leverage spots for the South Siders. His 22.6% strikeout is down from his 27% peak in 2021 but is roughly in line with last year’s 23.2% mark and only a bit shy of the 23.7% league average for relievers.
That said, there are at least some red flags of note. Graveman has seen his typically excellent ground-ball rate wilt to 39.4%, and his walk rate has spiked in 2023, sitting at a career-worst 10.8%. He’s also plunked five batters — already exceeding last year’s total of three (in 65 innings).
Even if his command hasn’t been as sharp as in the past, Graveman has been generally effective against both right-handed and left-handed opponents. Lefties have mustered only a .182/.338/.291 output against him, and righties haven’t been much better at .221/.293/.404.
Graveman will add another experienced arm to an Astros setup corps featuring Hector Neris, Bryan Abreu, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek. He and Neris both have closing experience, which gives Dusty Baker some options on days closer Ryan Pressly isn’t available. That Graveman is signed through 2024 surely appealed to Houston as well, given the fact that Stanek and Maton are both free agents at the end of the current season. Neris, meanwhile, has an $8.5MM player option (contingent on an end-of-season physical) for the 2024 season. He could very well turn it down, given his current 1.44 ERA and hearty 28.6% strikeout rate.
The addition of Graveman and his remaining salary takes the Astros’ payroll north of $195MM, per Roster Resource. In terms of luxury-tax calculations they’re now over $220MM, which still leaves them with plenty of breathing room underneath the $233MM first tier threshold. Houston now has $149MM in guarantees on next year’s payroll, before considering that option on Neris or what figures to be an expensive slate of arbitration-eligible players. Cy Young candidate Framber Valdez and star outfielder Kyle Tucker headline an arb class that also includes Jose Urquidy, Blake Taylor, Mauricio Dubon, Chas McCormick, Luis Garcia and the aforementioned Abreu. Valdez will be due a raise on this year’s $6.8MM salary. Tucker will get a bump from this season’s $5MM figure.
In exchange for a season-plus of Graveman, the Astros will part with the 25-year-old Lee, whom they selected with the No. 32 overall pick in the 2019 draft. The 23-year-old Lee made his MLB debut last year but appeared in just 12 games and logged only 26 plate appearances. He went 4-for-25 with a pair of doubles, a walk and nine punchouts during that time, though there’s little to be gleaned from such a small sample of work in his debut campaign.
Lee has power but plenty of swing-and-miss in his game, both of which were on display in 2022 when he swatted 25 dingers but fanned in 28.5% of his plate appearances. He hasn’t hit for as much power in Triple-A this season (just five homers) but has lopped nearly four percentage points off that strikeout rate and is currently batting .283/.328/.406. In parts of three Triple-A seasons, he’s a .255/.313/.446 hitter.
Defensively, Lee draws praise for elite arm strength that’s helped him nab 32% of would-be base thieves to this point in his professional career. Baseball America’s latest scouting report, which pegged him seventh in Houston’s system, credits him with an 80-grade arm, average framing ability and above-average blocking skills. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen currently ranks Lee as the game’s No. 75 prospect, putting a 70 grade on his arm strength and likening him to Austin Hedges earlier in his career (circa 2017-18) — an elite defender with enough power to offset a well below-average hit tool.
The White Sox have been relying on Yasmani Grandal as their primary catcher for the past four seasons, but he’s set to become a free agent at season’s end. Backup Seby Zavala posted a superficially strong .270/.347/.382 slash in 205 plate appearances last year, but that was buoyed by a .404 average on balls in play and accompanied by an alarming 31% strikeout rate. Predictably, that wasn’t a recipe for sustainable success; he’s regressed significantly in 2023, batting just .158/.202/.296 in 165 plate appearances. The system’s next most-advanced catcher, Carlos Perez, is having a down year in Triple-A (.248/.305/.429 — 77 wRC+).
Catching looked to be a clear area of need for the White Sox, but in a matter of 72 hours they’ve added an immediate big league option, Lee, and one of the game’s most highly regarded catching prospects in Edgar Quero, who came over from the Halos in the Lucas Giolito/Reynaldo Lopez deal. Lee and Quero will both get opportunities in the Majors in the near future, though Lee is the more immediate option of the two. He should get a look down the stretch, and a strong showing could put him in the mix to be the White Sox’s primary catcher as soon as next year.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the White Sox and Astros were swapping Graveman and Lee. Bob Nightengale of USA Today confirmed it was a one-for-one deal.
Mariners Could Deal From Rotation, Open To Offers On Paul Sewald
There’s been ample speculation surrounding the Mariners’ excellent young rotation since it was reported that the Cardinals had interest in 26-year-old righty Logan Gilbert. And while a trade involving one of Seattle’s talented arms could be a long shot due to the lofty asking price associated with all controllable young starters, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the M’s would at least consider dealing from their stock in order to acquire a young hitter with several years of control remaining.
Seattle’s rotation features veteran ace Luis Castillo and a quartet of touted young righties: Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Gilbert and Kirby have largely established themselves as quality big league arms, while Miller and Woo have impressed during their rookie efforts.
Gilbert, sporting a 3.88 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate in 20 starts, is controllable for four more years beyond the current season. Kirby (3.49 ERA, 22.6% strikeout rate, 2.4% walk rate) has an additional five seasons of control remaining. Miller (3.96 ERA, 23.9% strikeout rate, 5.1% walk rate in 75 innings) and Woo (4.91 ERA but a 28.9% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate in 44 innings) would each come with six seasons of control beyond the current year. Both Miller and Woo were ranked among the sport’s top 100 prospects at the time of their respective promotions.
The price to acquire any of those arms would surely be steep; not only would the Mariners be seeking a controllable bat to plug into the lineup — they’d likely be seeking a high-end, all-around contributor. Reds fans have regularly asked in MLBTR chats about the possibility of shipping Jonathan India to the Mariners for one of those starters, for instance, but league-average offense at second base and three-plus years of control likely isn’t enough to sway Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto to part with anywhere from four to six seasons of control over a big league starter. (Notably, Rosenthal suggests a trade of India is far likelier in the offseason than in the next few days.) The same could well apply to Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson — another roughly league-average hitter with three-plus seasons of club control remaining.
Should the Mariners find an offer to their liking on any of their talented young arms, Rosenthal suggests they could call up Emerson Hancock from Double-A. The former sixth overall pick has a 4.26 ERA with solid but not eye-popping strikeout and walk numbers over 19 starts there. Rosenthal also floats the possibility of Seattle acquiring an impending free agent starter — perhaps in a Teoscar Hernandez swap with another win-now club — to step into a rotation spot vacated by a trade of a controllable arm. Marco Gonzales is currently on the injured list but could return later in the season; perhaps Robbie Ray will make it back from Tommy John surgery at some point next year.
While a deal involving one of Seattle’s controllable starters would be tough to pull off, trades of shorter-term veterans could be easier to line up. Reliever Paul Sewald is surely of interest to a number of clubs, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported tonight (on Twitter) that Seattle is signaling an openness to moving him.
Sewald has been one of the best relievers in the sport since breaking out with Seattle in 2021. He owns a 2.90 ERA in 170 2/3 innings in an M’s uniform. The right-hander has been effective in all three seasons, including an even 3.00 ERA over 42 frames this year. He’s striking out just under 36% of opponents against a modest 7.9% walk rate.
The 33-year-old righty is playing this season on a $4.1MM arbitration salary. He’s eligible for that process once more before hitting free agency during the 2024-25 offseason. The asking price on Sewald obviously wouldn’t be as extreme as those on the M’s starters, but Seattle would surely aim high in those talks as well.
Max Scherzer Discusses Future With Mets
The Mets kicked off what’s likely to be a deadline sell-off last night, sending David Robertson to Miami. It’d seemed a long time in the making with New York unable to get above .500 but still marked a symbolic blow for a team that entered the year with championship aspirations.
How aggressively New York will retool the roster remains to be seen. Short-term veterans like Tommy Pham, Brooks Raley and Mark Canha seem likely to move within the next few days. There’s been increasing chatter about a pair of much bigger names: Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.
After his start tonight, Scherzer spoke with the New York beat about his future (relayed by Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). While he conceded the roster “put (itself) in this position” by not playing up to expectations, he noted his disappointment with the club’s situation. Regarding both whether he still had confidence in the team to compete in 2023 and his longer-term future with the organization, Scherzer said he was likely to speak with the front office about the club’s direction.
Scherzer declined to say whether he’d be willing to waive his no-trade rights. However, he seemed to tip his hand regarding the $43.333MM player option in his contract for next season. The three-time Cy Young winner said he’s “not going to be a free agent,” distinguishing this from the 2021 deadline when Scherzer waived his no-trade clause to go from the Nationals to the Dodgers three months before free agency.
The star hurler didn’t directly say he was a lock to opt in to next season. His contract with Washington didn’t have any option years, so there was no question he was headed to free agency that winter. Between his no-trade rights and player options, Scherzer has the ability to ensure he’s a Met in 2024. He added he “can see a path to contend next year” with New York but noted that’s pending a conversation with team brass.
Scherzer’s comments surely won’t quiet speculation about the chances of another deadline blockbuster. Yet they’re far from ensuring a move will happen. Even if Scherzer were willing to waive his no-trade rights, the Mets would need to find a deal they consider tenable. Andy Martino of SNY wrote this afternoon the Mets were finding more interest in Verlander of the two pitchers.
Both are making a record annual salary north of $43MM. Verlander is under guaranteed contract next season and has a vesting player option for 2025. Scherzer owns a 4.01 ERA through 107 2/3 innings. He’s striking hitters out at a quality 27.3% clip and limiting walks but has struggled with home runs.