White Sox Sign Erick Fedde
Feb. 10: The White Sox have officially announced the Fedde signing. It’s a one-year, $1.5MM deal. Left-hander Ky Bush was placed on the 60-day IL to open up a 40-man spot for Fedde. Bush had Tommy John surgery in February 2025.
Feb. 9: The White Sox are bringing Erick Fedde back to the organization on a one-year deal, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The deal is pending a physical. Fedde is represented by the Boras Corporation.
Fedde returns to the organization with which he made his MLB comeback in 2024. The former first-round pick and top prospect struggled through parts of six seasons with the Nationals before signing with the Korea Baseball Organization’s NC Dinos and reinventing himself. He won the KBO’s Cy Young Award equivalent (the Choi Dong-won Award) and was named KBO MVP in 2023. Fedde parlayed that into two years and $15MM with the White Sox, who plugged him right into the rotation.
The early portion of Fedde’s 2024 season could scarcely have gone better. He was Chicago’s best starter and looked every bit like a quality big league arm. In 121 2/3 frames with the South Siders, he turned in a 3.11 earned run average, a 21.5% strikeout rate, a 6.8% walk rate and a 44.7% ground-ball rate. The contract looked like a clear bargain, and the rebuilding White Sox naturally drew plenty of interest in the right-hander ahead of the 2024 trade deadline. Fedde ultimately went to the Cardinals as part of a three-team deal that netted the White Sox current third baseman Miguel Vargas and a pair of prospects while sending utilityman Tommy Edman from St. Louis to the Dodgers.
Fedde pitched decently with the Cardinals down the stretch in ’24. His rate stats slipped a bit, and he gave up a fair bit more hard contact, but his overall 3.72 ERA (4.05 FIP, 4.22 SIERA) in 55 2/3 frames was plenty respectable.
The 2025 season was a nightmare, however. Fedde’s strikeout rate cratered to 14% as his walk rate jumped north of 10%. He was tagged for a 5.22 ERA in 101 2/3 innings (20 starts) before being cut loose by the Cardinals. Subsequent deals with the Braves and Brewers didn’t bring about much more success. By the time the season was over, Fedde had a 5.49 ERA in 141 frames. He hadn’t lost any velocity off his heater, but Fedde’s command was clearly nowhere near as sharp as it was in 2024 — particularly in his early run with the White Sox.
Now back with Chicago, Fedde seems like he’ll have a chance to step into the rotation once again. The fifth spot behind Shane Smith, Sean Burke, Davis Martin and Anthony Kay seems up for grabs, with Fedde and fellow free agent pickup Sean Newcomb standing as the presumptive front-runners after signing major league deals this winter. Whichever of the two doesn’t grab the spot could open a swingman role, although there’s enough inexperience in the rotation — to say nothing for the inherent potential for injury faced by all teams — that it’s possible both Fedde and Newcomb will be starting games early in the season.
Players Who Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins
Most of the clubs in the league currently have a full 40-man roster, which means that just about every transaction requires a corresponding move. Some extra roster flexibility is on the way, however. The 60-day injured list goes away five days after the World Series but comes back when pitchers and catchers report to spring training.
Most clubs have a slightly earlier report date this year due to the World Baseball Classic. Last year, the Cubs and Dodgers had earlier report dates because they were had an earlier Opening Day than everyone else as part of the Tokyo Series. Gavin Stone was the first player to land on the 60-day IL in 2025, landing there on February 11th. According to MLB.com, every club has a report date from February 10th to 13th this year.
It’s worth pointing out that the 60 days don’t start being counted until Opening Day. Although a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL quite soon, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until late May or beyond. A team also must have a full 40-man roster in order to move a player to the 60-day IL.
There are still plenty of free agents still out there, including big names like Framber Valdez, Zac Gallen, Justin Verlander, Chris Bassitt, Lucas Giolito, and more. Perhaps the extra roster flexibility will spur some deals to come together. It could also increase the ability of some clubs to make waiver claims or small trades for players who have been designated for assignment. If a team wants to pass a player through waivers, perhaps they will try to do so in the near future before the extra roster flexibility opens up.
Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time or who have uncertain recovery timelines from 2025 injuries.
Angels: Anthony Rendon, Ben Joyce
Rendon’s situation is unique. He underwent hip surgery a year ago and missed the entire 2025 season. He is still on the roster and signed through 2026. He and the club have agreed to a salary-deferment plan and he is not expected to be in spring training with the club. His recovery timeline is unclear, but general manager Perry Minasian said earlier this month that Rendon would be “rehabbing at home,” per Alden González of ESPN. If they were going to release him, they likely would have done so by now, so he seems destined for the injured list.
Joyce underwent shoulder surgery in May and missed the remainder of the 2025 season. His current status is unclear. In August, he told Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register that he didn’t know if he would be ready for spring training. He would only land on the 60-day IL if the Halos don’t expect him back before the end of May.
Astros: Hayden Wesneski, Ronel Blanco, Brandon Walter
All three of these pitchers underwent Tommy John surgery in 2025. Wesneski was first, with his surgery taking place on May 23rd. Blanco followed shortly thereafter in early June. They will likely be targeting returns in the second half. Walter’s procedure was in September, meaning he will likely miss the entire season. All three should be on the 60-day IL as soon as Houston needs roster spots for other transactions.
Athletics: Zack Gelof
Gelof underwent surgery to repair a dislocated shoulder in September, with the expectation of him potentially being healthy for spring training. At the end of December, general manager David Forst told Martín Gallegos of MLB.com that Gelof would be “a little bit behind” in spring. He would only land on the 60-day IL if the A’s think he’ll be out through late May.
Blue Jays: Jake Bloss
Bloss underwent surgery on the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow in May. He was on optional assignment at the time and stayed in the minors for the rest of the season. Going into 2026, the Jays could keep him in the minors but they could also call him up and place him on the major league IL. Doing so would open up a roster spot but would also mean giving Bloss big league pay and service time.
Braves: Ha-Seong Kim, AJ Smith-Shawver, Danny Young, Joe Jiménez
Kim recently fell on some ice and injured his hand. He underwent surgery last week, and the expected recovery time is four to five months. The shorter end of that window only goes to mid-May, so perhaps Atlanta will hold off on making a decision until they watch his recovery, especially since they have other guys with clearer injury timelines.
Smith-Shawver underwent Tommy John surgery in June, so he shouldn’t be back until the second half and is therefore a lock for the 60-day IL once Atlanta needs a spot. Young underwent the same procedure in May, so he should also be bound for the IL.
Jimenez is more of a question mark. He missed the 2025 season due to left knee surgery. He required a “cleanup” procedure on that knee towards the end of the season. His timeline isn’t currently clear.
Brewers: None.
Cardinals: None.
Cubs: Justin Steele
Steele will probably be a bit of a borderline case. He underwent UCL surgery in April but it wasn’t a full Tommy John surgery. The Cubs described it as a “revision repair”. Steele had undergone Tommy John in 2017 as a minor leaguer.
Since Steele’s more recent procedure was a bit less serious than a full Tommy John, the club gave an estimated return timeline of about one year, putting him in line to potentially return fairly early in 2026. Given his importance to the Cubs, they would only put him on the 60-day IL if his timeline changes and he’s certain to be out through late May.
Diamondbacks: Corbin Burnes, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., A.J. Puk, Justin Martínez, Blake Walston, Tyler Locklear
The Snakes were hit hard by the injury bug in 2025. Burnes, Walston and Martínez all underwent Tommy John surgery. Burnes and Martínez had their procedures in June, so they should be targeting second-half returns and be easy calls for the 60-day IL. Walston would be a bit more borderline because his surgery was around Opening Day in late March last year. Puk had the slightly less significant internal brace procedure in June, so he could also be a borderline case.
Turning to the position players, Gurriel tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in September. He required surgery which came with a return timeline of nine to ten months, so he should be out until around the All-Star break.
Locklear should be back sooner. He underwent surgery in October to address a ligament tear in his elbow and a labrum injury in his shoulder. The hope at the time of that procedure was that he would be game ready to go on a rehab assignment around Opening Day and would therefore miss only about the first month. He would therefore only hit the 60-day IL if he doesn’t meet that timeline for some reason.
Dodgers: Brock Stewart
Stewart underwent shoulder debridement surgery in September. His timeline for 2026 isn’t especially clear. He will likely start the season on the IL but it’s unclear if he’ll be out long enough to warrant landing on the 60-day version.
Giants: Randy Rodríguez, Jason Foley
Rodríguez underwent Tommy John surgery in September, so he’s a lock for the 60-day IL and might even miss the entire 2026 campaign. Foley’s status is a bit more murky. He underwent shoulder surgery in May while with the Tigers. Detroit non-tendered him at season’s end, which allowed the Giants to sign him. He is expected back at some point mid-season. The Giants may want to get more clarity on his progress during camp before deciding on a move to the IL.
Guardians: Andrew Walters, David Fry
Neither of these guys is a lock for the 60-day IL. Walters had surgery to repair his right lat tendon in June with a recovery estimate of eight to ten months. Fry underwent surgery in October due to a deviated septum and a fractured nose suffered when a Tarik Skubal pitch hit him in the face. His timeline is unclear. It’s possible one or both could be healthy by Opening Day, so relevant updates may be forthcoming when camps open.
Mariners: Logan Evans
Evans required UCL surgery just last week and will miss the entire 2026 season. He was on optional assignment at the end of 2025, so the Mariners could keep him in the minors. Calling him up and putting him on the big league 60-day IL would open up a 40-man spot but would also involve Evans receiving big league pay and service time for the year.
Marlins: Ronny Henriquez
Henriquez underwent internal brace surgery in December and will miss the entire 2026 season, so he’s a lock for the 60-day IL.
Mets: Tylor Megill, Reed Garrett, Dedniel Núñez
All three of these pitchers underwent Tommy John surgery late in 2025 and are likely to miss the entire 2026 season, making them locks for the 60-day IL. Núñez went under the knife in July, followed by Megill in September and Garrett in October.
Nationals: Trevor Williams, DJ Herz
Williams underwent internal brace surgery in July. That’s a slightly less serious variation of Tommy John but still usually requires about a year of recovery. Herz underwent a full Tommy John procedure in April. Since that surgery usually requires 14 months or longer to come back, both pitchers are likely out until around the All-Star break and therefore bound for the 60-day IL once the Nats need some roster spots.
Orioles: Félix Bautista
Bautista underwent shoulder surgery in August, and the club announced his recovery timeline as 12 months. He’s a lock for the 60-day IL and may miss the entire season if his recovery doesn’t go smoothly.
Padres: Yu Darvish, Jhony Brito, Jason Adam
Darvish underwent UCL surgery in November and will miss the entire 2026 season. Instead of going on the IL, he may just retire, but it seems there are some contractual complications to be ironed out since he is signed through 2028.
Brito and Adam could be borderline cases. Brito underwent internal brace surgery in May of last year. Some pitchers can return from that procedure in about a year. Adam ruptured a tendon in his left quad in early September. In November, he seemed to acknowledge that he wouldn’t be ready for Opening Day. As of now, a trip to the 60-day IL seems unlikely unless he suffers a setback.
Pirates: Jared Jones
Jones required UCL surgery on May 21st of last year. The Bucs announced an expected return timeline of 10 to 12 months. The shorter end of that window would allow Jones to return fairly early in 2026. If it looks like he’ll be on the longer end of that time frame, he could wind up on the 60-day IL.
Phillies: Zack Wheeler
Wheeler underwent surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome in September, with a timeline of six to eight months. As of now, it seems unlikely Wheeler would require a trip to the 60-day IL, but it depends on how his ramp-up goes. He’s also approaching his 36th birthday, and the Phils could slow-play his recovery.
Rangers: Cody Bradford
Bradford required internal brace surgery in late June of last year. He recently said he’s targeting a return in May. That’s a pretty aggressive timeline, but perhaps the Rangers will delay moving him to the 60-day IL until that plan is strictly ruled out.
Rays: Manuel Rodríguez
Rodriguez underwent flexor tendon surgery in July of last year and is targeting a return in June of this year, so he should be a lock for the 60-day IL.
Reds: Brandon Williamson, Julian Aguiar
Both of these pitchers required Tommy John surgeries late in 2024, Williamson in September and Aguiar in October. They each missed the entire 2025 season. Presumably, they are recovered by now and could be healthy going into 2026, but there haven’t been any recent public updates.
Red Sox: Tanner Houck, Triston Casas
Houck is the most clear-cut case for Boston. He had Tommy John surgery in August of 2025 and will miss most or perhaps all of the 2026 season. Casas is more borderline. He’s still recovering from a ruptured left patellar tendon suffered in May of last year. It doesn’t seem like he will be ready by Opening Day, but his timeline apart from that is murky.
Rockies: Jeff Criswell, Kris Bryant
Criswell required Tommy John surgery in early March of last year. With the normal 14-month recovery timeline, he could be back in May. Anything slightly longer than that would make him a candidate for the 60-day IL. Bryant’s timeline is very difficult to discern. He has hardly played in recent years due to various injuries and is now dealing with chronic symptoms related to lumbar degenerative disc disease. Updates will likely be provided once camp opens.
Royals: Alec Marsh
Marsh missed 2025 due to shoulder problems and is slated to miss 2026 as well after undergoing labrum surgery in November.
Tigers: Jackson Jobe
Jobe required Tommy John surgery in June of last year. He will miss most or perhaps even all of the 2026 season.
Twins: None.
White Sox: Ky Bush, Drew Thorpe, Prelander Berroa
These three hurlers all required Tommy John surgery about a year ago, Bush in February, followed by Berroa and Thorpe in March. Given the normal 14-month recovery period, any of them could return early in 2026, but they could also end up on the 60-day IL if the timeline pushes slightly beyond that.
Yankees: Clarke Schmidt, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Anthony Volpe
Schmidt is the only lock of this group. He required UCL surgery in July of last year and should miss the first half of the 2026 season. Cole is recovering from Tommy John surgery performed in March of last year. His target is expected to be late May/early June, so he has a decent chance to hit the 60-day. However, given his importance to the club, the Yankees probably won’t put him there until it’s certain he won’t be back by the middle of May.
Rodón had surgery in October to remove loose bodies in his elbow. He’s expected to be back with the big league club in late April or early May, so he would only hit the 60-day IL if his timeline is pushed. Volpe required shoulder surgery in October. He’s not expected to be ready by Opening Day, but his timeline beyond that doesn’t seem concrete.
Photo courtesy of Allan Henry, Imagn Images
White Sox Claim Owen White
The White Sox have claimed right-hander Owen White off waivers from the Yankees, according to announcements from both clubs. The latter club had designated him for assignment last week. The Sox moved left-hander Ky Bush to the 60-day injured list as the corresponding move. It was reported last week that Bush would require Tommy John surgery, so he’ll spend the entire 2025 season on the IL.
White, 25, is a logical pickup for the White Sox. He has had rough results for the past two years but was a top 100 prospect before that. The Sox aren’t expecting to be good anytime soon, with their 2024 season being historically bad. Of the 30 clubs in the league, they are the one best positioned to take a flier and hope for a bounceback. White also has one option year remaining, so he can be kept in Triple-A throughout 2025 as the club gets a close-up look at him.
Drafted by the Rangers with the 55th overall pick in 2018, White’s debut was delayed for a while. Tommy John surgery prevented him from pitching in 2019 and then the minor leagues were wiped out by the pandemic in 2020. But despite that lengthy layoff, he went on to put up some eye-popping numbers once on the hill. Over the 2021 and 2022 seasons, he logged 115 2/3 innings on the farm with a 3.42 earned run average. He had a strong 7.5% walk rate and a massive 34.1% strikeout rate.
Going into 2023, he was a consensus top 100 prospect, with Baseball America giving him the #59 spot. The Rangers added him to their 40-man roster to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. But as alluded to earlier, his results have tapered off significantly since then.
He has made his major league debut, which surely wasn’t what he dreamed of. In seven big league frames to this point, he has allowed 13 earned runs, giving him an ugly 16.71 ERA at the moment. His minor league numbers haven’t been great either. He threw 151 1/3 innings for Triple-A Round Rock over 2023 and 2024 with a 5.41 ERA. The Express play in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League but he also didn’t impress with his 17.4% strikeout rate nor his 11.7% walk rate.
The Rangers did get experimental with White midway through 2024, giving him a shot at a relief role. In his final 13 Triple-A appearances on the year, he logged 18 frames from the bullpen. His 5.50 ERA still wasn’t impressive but he did strike out 25.6% of batters faced in that time.
That wasn’t enough for him to hang onto his roster spot. He was designated for assignment in December and traded to the Reds for cash. He was designated for assignment again in late January and put on waivers, with the Sox passing at that time. Given their record last year, they have top waiver priority, but he was claimed by the Yankees. But since then, the 60-day IL has opened up, which gave Chicago a bit more flexibility to make an addition such as this.
The Sox can bring White into camp and see how things go. Perhaps he can get back on track as a starter or find new life with a move to a relief role. As mentioned, they don’t need to give him a spot on the active roster this year. He still has less than a year of service time, so they could cheaply control him for years to come if things click while he’s on the roster.
Ky Bush To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
White Sox prospect Ky Bush will undergo Tommy John surgery tomorrow and miss the 2025 season, general manager Chris Getz announced to the team’s beat writers this morning (via Scott Merkin of MLB.com). He’s on Chicago’s 40-man roster, so if the Sox need to free up a spot at any point, they can place Bush on the 60-day injured list.
Bush, 25, was a second-round pick by the Angels in 2021 who landed with the South Siders by way of the Lucas Giolito/Reynaldo Lopez trade in 2023. He made his major league debut for the Sox in 2024 but only started four games, totaling 17 2/3 innings with a 5.60 ERA. His minor league output was far more promising. Bush breezed through 80 2/3 innings in Double-A, logging a pristine 2.12 ERA with a 24.6% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. He was hit hard in a small sample of four Triple-A starts, just as he was in the majors, but the bulk of his 2024 work was quite solid.
Given the patchwork nature of the White Sox’ pitching staff, Bush would’ve had a legitimate chance to break into the rotation — if not from Opening Day then certainly by midseason. The Sox currently have Martin Perez, Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin and Bryse Wilson projected for rotation work. Prospects Sean Burke, Nick Nastrini, Jake Eder, Drew Thorpe and Jairo Iriarte are all in the running for a role in 2025.
Bush would have been in that race for a spot as well, had he been healthy. Instead, the White Sox’ No. 12 prospect (per Baseball America) will now spend the season rehabbing. The mid-February nature of his surgery gives him a chance to be ready not too long after Opening Day 2026. Assuming he spends the entire season on the 60-day injured list, he’ll gain a full year of MLB service while rehabbing. Bush would still be controllable for at least another five years — through 2030 — and would have multiple minor league options remaining as well.
White Sox Claim Jacob Amaya, Designate Nick Senzel For Assignment
The White Sox announced today that they have claimed infielder Jacob Amaya off waivers from the Astros. The latter club had designated him for assignment on the weekend. Infielder Nick Senzel was designated for assignment by the White Sox in a corresponding 40-man roster move for the claim of Amaya. Infielder Bryan Ramos has been recalled to take Senzel’s active roster spot. The Sox also recalled left-hander Sammy Peralta and optioned lefty Ky Bush.
Amaya, 25, has just five major league games and ten plate appearances but is now joining the fourth organization of his career. An 11th-round pick of the Dodgers, he was flipped to the Marlins in the January 2023 trade that sent infielder Miguel Rojas to Los Angeles. He spent just over a year in the Marlins’ system but was designated for assignment in April of 2024 before being flipped to the Astros for right-hander Valente Bellozo and cash considerations.
Prospect evaluators have long praised Amaya for his defense, but his bat has been more questionable, which is borne out by the numbers. In 450 minor league games from 2021 to the present, he has slashed .240/.335/.384 for a wRC+ of 86. His 12.3% walk rate in that time is strong but he hasn’t made a ton of impact when putting the bat on the ball.
Amaya can still be optioned for the rest of this year but will be out of options next year. He has mostly played shortstop but has also seen some time at second and third base. The rebuilding Sox don’t have a ton set in stone in their future infield. Nicky Lopez has appeared in 105 games for them this year but is hitting a tepid .240/.309/.293 for a wRC+ of 74. He could be retained via arbitration for next year but would be a due a raise on his $4.3MM salary and could be non-tendered. Paul DeJong was traded to the Royals. Yoán Moncada is in the final guaranteed season of his contract and club won’t have much interest in picking up his $25MM club option for 2025.
Perhaps that will get Amaya a chance to earn some playing time for the rebuilding club. Even if his bat doesn’t come around, having a glove-first infielder is a sensible move for a rebuilding team that will undoubtedly be giving plenty of chances to unproven pitchers in the future.
That same uncertainty is what opened a spot for Senzel. The White Sox signed him in the middle of July after he was released by the Nationals. He got 32 plate appearances with the Sox but hit just .100/.129/.133 in those. Those struggles have nudged him off the roster and the Sox will have to put him on waivers now that the trade deadline has passed.
The Nats signed him to a one-year, $2MM deal in the offseason after he was non-tendered by the Reds. He was designated for assignment by the Nats in July, when a trade was still possible, but he ended up released. Presumably, the interest hasn’t been raised during Senzel’s tenure with the White Sox, so he’s likely to end up a free agent again.
Though he was once a second overall pick and ten ten prospect in the sport, his bat hasn’t played at the major league level. He has over 1600 plate appearances to this point but has hit .232/.299/.363 in those for a wRC+ of 76.
The Nats are still on the hook for the majority of that $2MM salary. If another club is intrigued by Senzel’s past prospect pedigree, they could sign him and pay him only the prorated portion of the $740K major league minimum salary. That amount would be subtracted from what Washington pays.
White Sox Promote Ky Bush For MLB Debut
August 5: The White Sox made it official today, selected Bush’s contract. They also reinstated right-hander Dominic Leone from the 60-day injured list. Right-hander Prelander Berroa and left-hander Sammy Peralta were optioned in corresponding moves. The 40-man roster is now full.
August 4: The White Sox will select the contract of left-hander Ky Bush prior to their next game on Tuesday, the Chicago Sun-Times’ Daryl Van Schouwen reports (via X). Bush will get the start against the A’s in his Major League debut. No 40-man roster move is required, as the Sox have space available after all their moves at the trade deadline.
A second-round pick in the 2021 draft, Bush was part of a unique Angels draft class that saw the team use all 20 of its selections on pitchers. He pitched at the Double-A level in 2022-23 and at the start of the 2024 season, with both a lat strain and a trade to Chicago interrupting his progress last season. Bush and Edgar Quero were the prospects sent from the Angels to the White Sox in the July 2023 deal that brought Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez to Los Angeles.
Bush settled in with his new organization this season, delivering a 2.12 ERA over 80 2/3 Double-A innings. This earned him his first taste of Triple-A action, though he has a 6.16 ERA in 19 innings and four appearances in Charlotte. For the season as a whole, Bush’s ERA is 2.89 over 99 2/3 frames, with a 10.45% walk rate, and 23.4% strikeout rate.
Baseball America ranked Bush sixth on its midseason ranking of the White Sox prospect pool, noting that the 24-year-old has “”No. 4 starter potential” and an arsenal of “solid pure stuff.” To that latter point, BA’s scouting reports puts a 50 grade on all four of Bush’s pitches, though his slider is considered his best offering.
It isn’t the standout resume that would immediately land a pitcher a ticket to the big leagues, but the 24-year-old Bush will get a chance to show what he can do against MLB competition. The rebuilding White Sox will be giving plenty of playing time to young players down the stretch, so a good showing could certainly earn Bush more looks in the rotation. If the pressure of making his debut in the Show wasn’t enough, Bush will also be trying to help the White Sox end a 20-game losing streak that is nearing record levels.
Angels Acquire Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez
The Angels are pushing the chips in. The Halos swung a late-night trade for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López from the White Sox, the teams announced. Prospects Edgar Quero and Ky Bush are going back to Chicago.
Los Angeles declared themselves buyers this evening when they formally took Shohei Ohtani off the trade market. Once they committed to making a push in Ohtani’s final season of club control, there was little reason not to act boldly. They’ve done just that, surrendering two of their top prospects for the top rental starter available and a relief upgrade.
Ironically, Giolito and López both landed with the White Sox in the same trade nearly seven years ago. Both had debuted with the Nationals in 2016 before being included in the Adam Eaton package during that year’s Winter Meetings. They’ve spent the past six-plus seasons on Chicago’s South Side.
Giolito has developed into the more valuable of the duo. After a disastrous 2018 season, the Southern California native blossomed into an upper mid-rotation starter. He has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in four of the past five years, including a 3.79 mark through 121 frames this season.
He has backed up that solid run prevention with above-average peripherals. Giolito is striking out 25.8% of opponents against an 8.3% walk rate. He’s generating swinging strikes on 11.9% of his offerings. It’s a third consecutive season in which he’s been above-average across the board.
Giolito hasn’t quite developed into the ace it seemed he might become when he finished in the top 10 in Cy Young balloting in 2019-20. His average fastball speed is down a tick from those peak seasons, and he’s lost a few whiffs on each of his offerings. Still, the 29-year-old is a clear playoff caliber starter. He averages just under six innings per start while holding opponents to a .232/.301/.430 batting line. Giolito is effective against hitters of either handedness and has essentially avoided any major injuries in his MLB career.
That kind of durability and effectiveness should be a major boost to a Halos’ rotation that entered play Wednesday ranked 20th in the majors in ERA. Ohtani is the one pitcher allowing fewer than four earned runs per nine on the season. Reid Detmers has a 4.38 ERA but a strikeout rate north of 29% that suggests he fits well in the middle of a rotation. Patrick Sandoval and Griffin Canning have been fine back-end arms. Tyler Anderson has underperformed in the first season of a three-year deal, working to a 5.18 ERA. He slots sixth in the Halos’ six-man starting staff, while Giolito’s addition should firmly push Jaime Barria into long relief if the rest of the group stays healthy.
Barria has been more effective out of the bullpen than when pressed into rotation work. Giolito’s acquisition indirectly upgrades the relief corps in that regard, while the addition of López helps the bullpen in a more straightforward way.
The 29-year-old righty moved to relief for good by the start of the 2022 season. He was excellent in that role last year, pitching to a 2.76 ERA across 65 1/3 frames. It has been more of a mixed bag in 2023. López carries a 4.29 ERA in 42 innings. His walks have jumped from a minuscule 4.3% clip last year to a concerning 12.4% rate.
However, the uptick in free passes has been paired with a jump in whiffs. López has punched out a career-best 29.2% of batters faced. He’s picking up swinging strikes on 13.4% of his offerings while averaging 98.3 MPH on his heater and 87.9 MPH on the slider. López is a high-octane arm to pair with Matt Moore as setup options in front of closer Carlos Estévez. The Halos could look for additional ways of bolstering the middle innings mix between now and the August 1 trade deadline.
Both Giolito and López are firmly win-now pieces. Each is an impending free agent. Giolito is arguably the top non-Ohtani starter who’ll hit the open market. He’s on his way to exceeding nine figures. That always made it likely the White Sox — whose franchise-record expenditure is the $75MM Andrew Benintendi pact — would not re-sign him.
A midseason deal, while not unexpected, is a nice boost to Giolito’s eventual earning power. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a qualifying offer. Giolito would obviously have received one had the Sox retained him past the deadline, but he’ll now hit the open market without a signing team needing to forfeit draft capital.
The more immediate benefit, of course, is that both pitchers will get a chance to compete for a postseason spot. The Halos are four games out in the Wild Card race and seven back in the AL West. They’re clearly pushing the chips in for this season and figure to continue to be aggressive in the next few days. Adding corner infield help with Anthony Rendon and Brandon Drury on the shelf and Jared Walsh struggling enough to be optioned to Triple-A makes plenty of sense; to that end, the Halos have reportedly been in touch with the Nationals regarding third baseman Jeimer Candelario.
As part of that all-in mentality, the Angels relinquished a pair of their most talented prospects. Quero is one of the game’s top minor league backstops. The switch-hitter reached Double-A by his 20th birthday and is holding his own in a pitcher-friendly setting. Over 317 plate appearances, Quero owns a .245/.385/.332 batting line. He’s only hit three home runs but is walking at a massive 17% clip while striking out just 16.7% of the time.
That kind of plate discipline is exceptionally rare for a hitter so young. The Cuban-born backstop is the sport’s #61 overall prospect at FanGraphs and 85th at Baseball America. Scouting reports predictably rave about his advanced offensive skills and suggest he has a good chance to be a regular in the long term.
The Halos already have a potential catcher of the future in Logan O’Hoppe. Acquired from the Phillies last summer, O’Hoppe has been limited to 21 big league contests because of a labrum tear in his shoulder. He’s controllable for five seasons beyond this one, though, perhaps making Quero a little more expendable to the organization.
Chicago had no such long-term answer behind the dish. Yasmani Grandal is headed to free agency on the heels of a fine but unexceptional year. It’s probably unreasonable to expect Quero to immediately succeed Grandal as the #1 backstop next season, but it doesn’t seem out of the question he could reach the majors at some point in 2024. That upper minors proximity is surely appealing to a Chicago team reloading for next year.
Bush, a 23-year-old southpaw, was also at Double-A. A second-round pick out of St. Mary’s in 2021, he ranked ninth among Angels’ prospects in Eric Longenhagen’s recent organizational rankings at FanGraphs. Both Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN (on Twitter) suggest the 6’6″ hurler has a chance to stick as a starter and praise his slider, though Longenhagen raises concerns about his low-90s fastball. Bush has been a little homer-prone in his first six Double-A starts but is striking out nearly 30% of opponents there.
It’s a strong return for a pair of impending free agents, with Quero the clear headliner. Yet it’s understandable the Angels would part with those players (particularly with O’Hoppe in the fold) to make a push this season. Their aggressiveness extends beyond the prospect capital, as the trade officially pushed them into luxury tax territory.
The Halos were right around the $233MM competitive balance tax threshold before the move. They’re taking on what remains of the respective $10.4MM and $3.625MM arbitration salaries for Giolito and López. That’s around $3.75MM on Giolito and $1.31MM on López. That’ll push their estimated CBT figure to around $238MM pending future additions.
It’s clear owner Arte Moreno will sign off on paying the tax for the first time. The financial penalties of doing so are rather minimal. As a first-time payor, they’ll pay a 20% tax on expenditures between $233MM and $253MM. The tax money they’re taking on with today’s trade is just over $1MM, a marginal amount in comparison to the team’s overall spending.
More notably, surpassing the CBT reduces the draft compensation they’d receive if they lose a qualified free agent. Teams that pay the luxury tax receive a compensation pick after the fourth round if a player rejects a qualifying offer and signs elsewhere. Clubs that stay below the threshold get a compensatory choice between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round.
Ohtani will obviously reject a QO. If the Angels don’t re-sign him, going past the CBT means they’re moving the draft compensation back a couple rounds. That’s a risk worth taking to maximize the chances of getting to the playoffs in Ohtani’s final season of arbitration. The Angels are all-in, and while this’ll probably be their biggest move of deadline season, there’s no reason to think it’s their last.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Angels and White Sox were finalizing a trade of Giolito and López for Quero and Bush.
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