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Giants, Carlos Correa Agree To 13-Year Deal

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The Giants have landed the star player they’d been seeking. San Francisco is reportedly in agreement with Carlos Correa on a 13-year, $350MM contract. The deal doesn’t contain any opt-out provisions but the Boras Corporation client will receive a full no-trade clause.

It’ll be the third team in as many years for Correa, who turned 28 in September. The longtime Astro hit free agency last winter. Generally regarded as the top player in that offseason’s class, he didn’t find the long-term megadeal he’d sought after declining a qualifying offer from Houston.

After the lockout, Correa pivoted to a shorter-term gamble on himself, inking a three-year guarantee with the Twins that paid him the largest per-year salary ($35.1MM) for a free agent position player in MLB history. That deal allowed Correa to opt out and retest the market this winter, and he was ineligible for another QO thanks to the CBA’s prohibition on a player receiving the offer multiple times in his career.

Correa’s 2022 campaign got off to a slower than expected start. He hit .243/.309/.324 in April, presumably dealing with some lingering effects of his late signing and cold early-season weather that took a toll on his power output. In the first week of May, Correa dealt with a scare when he was struck on the right hand on a check swing. Initial x-rays indicated he may have fractured his right middle finger, but follow-up testing revealed he suffered only a bruise. He still landed on the injured list but returned after a minimal stint. Aside from a brief stay on the COVID-19 list a few weeks later, Correa stayed healthy the rest of the way.

After returning from the finger bruise, Correa was one of the sport’s best players. He hit .299/.376/.488 in 487 plate appearances from mid-May onwards. Among 133 qualified hitters over that stretch, he ranked 14th in on-base percentage and 23rd in slugging. That excellent finish brought his season line up to .291/.366/.467 in 136 games. Correa’s overall offensive productivity was 40 percentage points above league average, by measure of wRC+. That’s right in line with the levels he’d established late in his time in Houston. Correa stumbled in the abbreviated 2020 campaign but had respective wRC+ tallies 42 and 33 points above average in 2019 and ’21.

Over the past four seasons, the former first overall pick has tallied just under 1800 plate appearances. He’s hit .281/.359/.481 with a strong 10.6% walk rate and a lower than average 20.4% strikeout percentage. Correa has posted a hard contact rate north of 42% in each of the past four seasons, well above the 35-36% league marks. Broadly speaking, there’s nothing to nitpick with his offensive ability. He makes contact, has strong plate discipline and has topped 20 home runs in six of the seven 162-game seasons of his career. Correa has unsurprisingly been better against left-handers than righties, but he’s been excellent against pitchers of either handedness. He owns a .291/.386/.482 career mark against southpaws, while he’s hit .274/.346/.477 against same-handed arms.

Correa had some injury issues earlier in his career, missing time in 2018 with back discomfort and fracturing a rib in 2019. He’s only twice topped 600 plate appearances in a season, but the aforementioned finger contusion is the only non-virus ailment that has sent him to the IL within the past three seasons. With his recent health and the strong finish to his 2022 campaign, his camp made the easy call to opt out of the final two years and $70.2MM on his Twins deal.

For the second straight winter, he was the top free agent option in a loaded shortstop class. Even with Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson hitting the open market, Correa was the best available shortstop. Aaron Judge was the market’s top free agent overall on the heels of an MVP-winning, 62-homer season, but one can argue Correa was the best long-term bet available.

In addition to his strong offensive track record, the two-time All-Star is typically one of the sport’s most valuable defenders. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him as an above-average shortstop in every season of his career. Altogether, DRS has pegged him as 70 runs better than par in more than 7600 innings. Statcast hasn’t been as bullish, but it also generally rates him as a plus gloveman. Statcast has pegged Correa as 17 runs above average since it began tracking defense in 2016, including plus grades each year from 2018-21.

Correa’s defense marks were particularly excellent during his final season in Houston, when he rated as +20 runs by DRS and +9 runs at Statcast. He secured his first career Gold Glove award in the process. This year’s reviews weren’t so impressive. DRS still considered him a net positive at three runs above average, but that was the lowest mark of his career. Statcast pegged him two runs below par, his first below-average showing by that metric since 2017.

Defensive metrics can vary on an annual basis, and it doesn’t seem San Francisco’s concerned with this past season’s mid-tier showing. Correa boasts a plus arm and has generally been very sure-handed. There may be some trepidation about how his 6’4″, 220 pound frame will hold up into his mid-late 30’s, particularly since he’s only an average runner. With his hands and arm strength, however, the Giants can at least project above-average glovework for the next few seasons.

San Francisco has four-time Gold Glove winner Brandon Crawford under contract for another year. They didn’t enter the offseason needing shortstop help necessarily, but their infield around Crawford had its share of question marks. San Francisco re-signed Wilmer Flores to a two-year guarantee to add a productive righty bat to the mix at first, second or third base. Tommy La Stella is under contract for another season but hasn’t played well since landing in San Francisco. J.D. Davis and David Villar are on hand as corner options, while Thairo Estrada can cover the middle infield and adds a solid righty bat.

There are a lot of moving pieces available for skipper Gabe Kapler, but adding Correa figures to solidify the left side of the infield with an everyday pair. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote last month the team planned to move Crawford to the hot corner if they were to sign Correa. Crawford has never played an inning outside of shortstop in the majors, but he figures to handle the less demanding position well.

While shortstop itself may not have been a priority for president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and his front office, adding impact talent certainly was. The Giants made no secret of their desire to land Judge. When he returned to the Bronx, the club pivoted to Correa — the clear top hitter remaining. He’ll now become the highlight acquisition of the offseason, joining outfielder Mitch Haniger and pitchers Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling as players brought in to try to rebound from an 81-81 campaign.

Doing so requires one of the largest investments in major league history. The $350MM guarantee checks in as the fourth-largest ever. It’s the second-biggest free agent deal of all-time, just narrowly below the $360MM deal that Judge inked a week ago. Correa becomes the second free agent to land a 13-year contract, matching the record length secured by Bryce Harper with the Phillies over the 2018-19 offseason. The deal runs through the 2035 campaign, what will be Correa’s age-40 season.

That kind of lengthy megadeal has become en vogue this offseason. Turner and Bogaerts signed 11-year deals with the Phillies and Padres, respectively, taking them each through their own age-40 seasons. Judge inked a nine-year deal that paid him through age 39. MLBTR had predicted Correa for a nine-year, $288MM contract at the start of the offseason. As with Turner and Bogaerts, those deals lasted longer than anticipated, with each correspondingly securing a greater guarantee than expected.

That has involved a bit of a tradeoff with regards to annual salary, however. Correa’s deal comes with an average annual value around $26.92MM, a mark that’s outside the top 25 in MLB history. That’s well lower than the $32MM per-year salary MLBTR had projected, with the Puerto Rico native electing to sacrifice some money on an annual basis to secure a larger total sum. Doing so could very well position him to spend the remainder of his career in the Bay Area.

From a team perspective, spreading the guarantee over a longer term adds more future downside but has the more immediate benefit of reducing the club’s luxury tax hit. A team’s CBT commitments are based on deals’ average annual values, and the $26.92MM mark is more manageable in that regard.

That’s now relevant for the Giants, whose payroll has spiked dramatically. The specific financial breakdown isn’t yet clear, but an evenly distributed salary would push the Giants 2023 payroll around $190MM, as projected by Roster Resource. Their luxury tax figure is about $206MM, $27MM below the base threshold. San Francisco’s spending is well above the $150-155MM range of the past few seasons, but it’s still shy of their $200MM franchise-record Opening Day mark from 2018.

The Giants could keep pushing forward as they jostle for position atop a stacked NL West with the Dodgers and Padres. The bullpen is still a question mark, and San Francisco could look into upgrades at first base and/or center field. The Giants remained involved in the bidding for ace Carlos Rodón as of this afternoon as well, although signing both Correa and the top remaining free agent starting pitcher may push beyond their financial comfort level.

As for Correa’s now-former team, they’ll be left to regroup having missed out on their top target of the winter. Minnesota offered a 10-year deal worth $285MM, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. That came with a higher annual salary than the offer Correa actually accepted, but the Twins were apparently reluctant to commit deep into his 30’s. They’re now facing an uncertain shortstop situation, with Kyle Farmer and Royce Lewis looking like the top internal options.

Minnesota has already had some discussions with Swanson this offseason, keeping tabs on him as a fallback possibility to Correa. The organization should have a decent amount of financial flexibility and could now pivot more strongly after Swanson if they’re determined to address shortstop. They’ve also been linked to Rodón at various points and could try to allocate their spending capacity to a top-of-the-rotation arm. The Twins surely aren’t done in any event, although that’ll be little consolation for the front office and fanbase for the moment. Because Correa was ineligible for the qualifying offer, they don’t receive any compensation for his departure.

It’s the latest massive move in an offseason that has gained plenty of steam since the calendar flipped to December. Correa joins an increasingly loaded division and, more generally, a very competitive National League. In the process, he becomes the new face of the Giants — a role the club hopes he’ll effectively hold well into the next decade.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported Correa and the Giants had agreed to a 13-year, $350MM contract. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the deal didn’t include any opt-out provisions but contained a full no-trade clause.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Carlos Rodon’s Market

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10:42pm: The Yankees have indeed put forth an offer to Rodon, Heyman writes. There’s apparently still a fair bit of work to do in order to get a deal done, as Heyman indicates there’s a notable gap between New York’s proposal and Rodon’s asking price.

2:55pm: Carlos Rodon is the clear top pitcher remaining on the open market, and despite a lofty asking price reportedly in the $200MM neighborhood, multiple clubs remain in pursuit of the left-hander. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported yesterday that the Yankees are prepping a formal offer for Rodon, and Brendan Kuty of NJ.com now tweets that the Yankees appear to be Rodon’s preferred landing spot. However, Kuty adds that both the Twins and the Cardinals both remain “seriously in play” for the southpaw as of this afternoon. Meanwhile, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets that even after agreeing to identical two-year, $25MM deals with both Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea this week, the Giants are still involved in Rodon’s market.

The Twins’ interest in Rodon is perhaps contingent on the looming decision of Carlos Correa who, like Rodon, is represented by the Boras Corporation. Dan Hayes of The Athletic suggests that Correa remains the Twins’ top priority, though he adds that the team nonetheless made a pitch to Rodon earlier in the month (Twitter thread). Given that the Giants are viewed as Minnesota’s primary competition for Correa, it’s fair to wonder whether both clubs might be prioritizing Correa with the intent of pivoting to Rodon should they be spurned by Correa. That both players have the same agent makes concurrent negotiations a smoother process.

After agreeing to a three-year deal with free-agent catcher Christian Vazquez yesterday, Minnesota projects to about $107MM in total commitments for the upcoming season. That’s well shy of the more than $140MM they spent on last year’s Opening Day roster, but not so far south of the mark that it becomes easy to envision a scenario in which both Correa and Rodon sign on to call Target Field home. The Twins have drawn interest in right fielder Max Kepler this winter, but even in the event of a Kepler deal coming together, a Correa/Rodon combo would push Minnesota well past $150MM in total payroll for the first time in franchise history and would likely lock them into $75-80MM worth of annual commitments to the trio of Correa, Rodon and Byron Buxton.

The Giants, meanwhile, are roughly $43MM from their franchise-record Opening Day payroll even after their deals with Stripling and Manaea. Similarly, though, it’s difficult to see both players landing in San Francisco. The Giants are already a bit north of $180MM in terms of luxury obligations, and that pairing would likely push them into tax territory for the first time. That said, the Giants have topped $200MM in payroll before, and the only player currently signed beyond the 2024 season is Mitch Haniger, who’s signed through 2025. The Giants have been averse to long-term contracts under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, though they made hefty bids for both Aaron Judge and Bryce Harper under his watch.

As for the Cardinals, they were linked to Rodon this past weekend, and Kuty paints them as a fairly prominent player in the bidding. The Cards would make for something of a surprise bidder, having already spent $87.5MM to bring Willson Contreras to St. Louis on a five-year contract. Signing Rodon would likely mean doling out the largest commitment in franchise history and pushing payroll to height never before seen in St. Louis. The Cardinals’ current record for Opening Day payroll is a bit more north of $163MM, in 2021, but they’re already at that rough level right now Rodon could well take them north of $190MM.

Circling back to the Yankees, they at one point reportedly hoped to limit any Rodon deals to four or five years in length, though that doesn’t seem likely to get them in the ballpark. With Judge and Cole both locked into a combined $76MM in annual commitments through the 2028 season (2029 in Judge’s case), adding Rodon to the mix would require budgeting more than $100MM annually for a trio of players for at least the next six years. Giancarlo Stanton is under contract through 2027, as well, further complicating the long-term scenario for Rodon.

At present, Roster Resource projects a $266MM luxury-tax ledger for the Yankees. They’re already set to pay the tax for a second straight season, so they’ll owe $6MM on the first $20MM by which they cross the $233MM threshold and $8.5MM on the next $20MM. Once they reach $273MM in luxury obligations, they’ll be taxed at a rate of 75%, and they’d be taxed at 90% on any dollars beyond the $293MM mark.

Speculatively penciling in an even $30MM AAV (which could, of course, be off by a few million dollars one way or another), the Yankees would jump from their currently projected $11.74MM of penalties all the way up to about $32.65MM in penalties. In other words, they’d pay an approximate $21MM in taxes on top of Rodon’s actual salary for the 2023 season. Passing the luxury threshold by more than $40MM would also drop the Yankees’ top pick in the 2023 draft by 10 places, and any Rodon deal would make it quite difficult to drop under the tax line (and avoid even steeper tax rates as a third-time offender) in 2024.

Mets Interested In Carlos Correa

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The Mets are showing interest in Carlos Correa, report Ken Rosenthal, Dan Hayes and Andy McCullough of the Athletic. It’s not clear precisely how committed they are to making a run at the top remaining free agent, but their presence on at least the periphery of the market makes for a fascinating twist.

This offseason has been dominated by Mets headlines, with the team signing a number of top free agents. New York made nine-figure commitments to retain Edwin Díaz ($102MM over five years) and Brandon Nimmo ($162MM over eight years). The Mets brought in Justin Verlander on a two-year, $86.66MM deal — tying the annual salary record they established with last offseason’s three-year pact for Max Scherzer. They agreed to terms with Kodai Senga on a five-year, $75MM pact and have signed smaller but still notable deals with José Quintana (two years, $26MM) and David Robertson (one year, $10MM).

That spending spree added to a roster that already had the league’s highest payroll. Certainly, the Mets faced a number of key departures as well. They allowed Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker to sign elsewhere. That said, they’re already projected well beyond this year’s spending level. New York opened the 2022 campaign with a player payroll around $264MM; they’re projected by Roster Resource at a staggering $336MM figure for next season.

It’s an unparalleled number in league history, one that leaves open the question of how far owner Steve Cohen and his front office are willing to go. Cohen has proven himself undeterred by traditional spending habits, and he’s certainly seemed unfazed by the luxury tax that’s ostensibly in place to prevent any team from spending head and shoulders above the rest.

Roster Resource projects the Mets’ luxury tax number around $350MM at the moment. They’re $117MM clear of the base tax threshold and are going to blow past all four tiers of penalization. New York paid the CBT this past season, so they’re also facing escalating penalties for going over for a second straight year. The Mets will pay a 30% tax on their first $20MM above the threshold ($6MM), a 42% tax on their next $20MM in overages ($8.4MM), a 75% tax on their next $20MM in surplus spending ($15MM) and a 90% tax on any additional dollars. New York is currently an estimated $57MM above the fourth and final tier, one colloquially known as the “Cohen tax” after being introduced in the most recent CBA at least partially in response to Cohen’s reputation for spending. That’s another $51.3MM in taxes, bringing New York’s total projected tax bill to a staggering $80.7MM.

Of course, that’s before considering the possibility of adding another megadeal. Correa is the best free agent still on the board. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR forecasted a nine-year, $288MM contract. The two top shortstops already off the board — Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts — each best our predictions, with Bogaerts’ $280MM contract coming in well above most expectations. In light of the strength of the market, Correa pushing past $300MM now seems likely, and one could argue for him to approach the $360MM guarantee Aaron Judge received from the Yankees given Correa’s youth and greater defensive value.

Even if we conservatively pencil Correa in for the pre-offseason prediction of $288MM over nine years, that’d come out to a $32MM annual salary. New York would be taxed at 90% on top of that, effectively making it a $60.8MM commitment to the star shortstop for next season. It’d be the kind of move a team has never made for an individual player, and again, that now seems a rather pessimistic view of Correa’s earning power. Certainly, the deal could push longer than nine years and lower the annual salary somewhat — Turner and Bogaerts each received 11 years despite being older than Correa — but any permutation of the contract would involve the team investing an immense sum. Cohen has clearly established himself as an owner unconcerned with precedent, and it’d be foolish to count the Mets out on any free agent at this point.

The Mets don’t need a shortstop, of course, with Francisco Lindor locked in as their long-term answer at the position. Third base isn’t accounted for by a star, with veteran Eduardo Escobar coming off an average season and top prospect Brett Baty still unproven at the MLB level. Relying on Escobar and Baty wouldn’t be a disaster, but installing Correa alongside Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil and Lindor would lock in All-Star caliber players everywhere on the infield.

Beyond the Mets, the Giants and incumbent Twins are reported to be prioritizing Correa at this stage of the offseason. They’re widely viewed as the top suitors, while teams like the Cubs and Red Sox have been more loosely linked to him. Dansby Swanson, who’s drawing attention from many of the same clubs, remains available as the clear second-best position player still on the open market.

Royals Sign Ryan Yarbrough

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The Royals announced they’ve signed left-hander Ryan Yarbrough to a one-year contract. It’s reportedly a $3MM guarantee with $1MM in available incentives for the Excel Sports Management client. In a corresponding 40-man roster move, K.C. designated reliever Wyatt Mills for assignment.

Initially drafted by the Mariners, Yarbrough was dealt to the Rays as a prospect. He debuted with Tampa Bay in 2018 and has spent the past half-decade there, finding a fair bit of success for his first few seasons. Yarbrough broke into the big leagues with a 3.81 ERA across 147 1/3 innings, finishing fifth in AL Rookie of the Year balloting. He only technically started six of 38 games, but he proved a versatile piece of the pitching staff for manager Kevin Cash and pitching coach Kyle Snyder. Yarbrough was frequently called upon to soak up innings behind an opener, a role he also filled fairly frequently in 2019.

The Old Dominion product pitched to a 4.13 ERA over 141 2/3 frames during his second season, starting half of his 28 appearances. He posted a 3.56 ERA in 55 2/3 innings during the abbreviated 2020 campaign. Heading into 2021, Yarbrough had tossed 344 2/3 career innings while allowing just under four earned runs per nine innings. Even without a power arsenal, he consistently assumed one of the heavier workloads on the Tampa Bay staff thanks to his stellar control and willingness to work in different roles.

Things have gone downhill over the past two seasons. Yarbrough led the team in innings in 2021, tossing 155 frames. His production fell off, though, as he allowed a career-worst 5.11 ERA. His strikeout and walk numbers weren’t much different than his results in prior seasons, but he became increasingly home run prone. The Rays tendered him a contract in hope of a bounceback, and while his numbers did improve this year, they were still worse than his early-career marks.

Yarbrough worked 80 innings, his lowest workload in a 162-game season since debuting. He put up a 4.50 ERA, allowing 1.35 homers per nine innings. The former fourth-round draftee continued to demonstrate strong control, walking only 6.2% of batters faced. His 17.2% strikeout rate was a career low but not drastically below his previous marks, as he’s never been one to miss many bats.

Without a power arsenal, Yarbrough has succeeded on deception and an ability to avoid hard contact. He hasn’t been quite so effective at avoiding barrels in recent seasons as he was for his first three years, perhaps thanks to a dip in velocity. Yarbrough has never averaged even 90 MPH on his fastball, but he’d been in the 87-89 MPH range early in his career. For the past two seasons, his average fastball has checked in below 87 MPH. The cutter, which he uses as his primary pitch, has dipped into the low-80s after previously sitting as high as 86.9 MPH in 2018.

The Rays moved on from Yarbrough in lieu of an arbitration salary that’d been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz at $4.2MM. He’ll move to the spacious Kauffman Stadium in hopes of getting the longball back in check in 2023. Yarbourgh reunites there with first-year skipper Matt Quatraro, who’d spent the last four seasons on the Tampa Bay staff as bench coach. With between four and five years of MLB service, he’ll be eligible for arbitration again next offseason. If Yarbrough rights the ship, the Royals can keep him around through the end of 2024 despite only guaranteeing him one year.

It’s a modest price point for K.C., whose projected payroll now sits around $78MM, per Roster Resource. The Royals opened this past season at around $95MM in player spending. Nevertheless, GM J.J. Picollo suggested earlier this offseason the team wasn’t operating with much spending capacity. An affordable roll of the dice on Yarbrough makes plenty of sense, particularly given the new skipper’s ties to the southpaw.

The Royals could plug Yarbrough into either the rotation or long relief. Brady Singer has one rotation spot sewn up, but the rest of the staff seems open. Daniel Lynch will likely be back in the front five after starting 27 games in 2022, with Yarbrough joining Kris Bubic, Brad Keller, Carlos Hernández, Max Castillo, Jonathan Bowlan and Angel Zerpa among those who could jostle for starts. Adding another starter this winter seems likely, and the Royals could certainly look to bring back Zack Greinke on another one-year free agent deal.

Mills joined the Royals last summer in the trade with the Mariners that offloaded some of the money owed to Carlos Santana. He made 19 MLB appearances in Kansas City, working to a 4.79 ERA across 20 2/3 innings. The righty posted slightly worse than average strikeout and walk numbers (21.3% and 10.6%, respectively) over that stretch. He punched out a massive 39.7% of batters faced in 13 outings for Triple-A Omaha, but he also walked more than 17% of opponents in that look.

Kansas City will now have a week to trade the 27-year-old (28 next month) or place him on waivers. Mills has a minor league option year remaining, so a team that acquires him would be able to move him between MLB and Triple-A next season.

Kiley McDaniel of ESPN first reported the deal contained a $3MM guarantee and up to $1MM in performance bonuses.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Giants Have Been In Contact With Dansby Swanson

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The market for shortstop Dansby Swanson has begun to heat up, according to Russell Dorsey of Bally Sports. He lists the Dodgers, Giants, Twins, Cubs, Red Sox and Braves as teams with interest. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the Giants have been in touch with Swanson’s representatives, but that it doesn’t appear any decision is imminent.

The Twins, Cubs, Red Sox and Braves have all previously been connected to Swanson this offseason, though the mentions of the Dodgers and Giants are new. This offseason featured a group of shortstops known as the “big four,” with Trea Turner already signed with the Phillies and Xander Bogaerts with the Padres. That leaves Carlos Correa and Swanson as the two of that group left for all those shortstop-needy teams.

Though Correa and Swanson are connected in the sense that they are the two surefire everyday shortstops remaining, there’s a significant difference between the two. Both have strong reputations for their glovework, though Correa’s overall body of work at the plate is stronger. At the start of the season, MLBTR predicted a nine-year, $288MM contract for Correa but a seven-year, $154MM deal for Swanson.

Most teams would surely prefer Correa in a vacuum but the price might be an issue. Both Turner and Bogaerts got at least three years longer than projected and each secured a larger overall guarantee as well. With that context, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Correa and Swanson also end up getting deals larger than their projections.

The Giants were seen by many as the favorites for Correa after they made an offer in the $360MM range to Aaron Judge that he declined in order to return to the Yankees. However, it stands to reason that they would also reach out to Swanson and see if there’s a significant difference in the respective markets. Since the Judge non-signing, they’ve agreed to some smaller deals for Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling, bringing their 2023 payroll up to $164MM, per Roster Resource. It’s unclear how far they want to push spending this offseason, but they are still sitting on a competitive balance tax figure of $180MM, leaving them over $50MM of room before reaching the lowest luxury tax barrier of $233MM.

Giving Correa a salary in the $30MM range wouldn’t push them into the luxury tax on its own, but they do have other needs on the roster as well. They are reportedly still interested in retaining Carlos Rodón, who will also require a contract somewhere in the vicinity of $30MM on an annual basis. Adding both Rodón and Correa would start pushing them into luxury tax territory, whereas the dropdown to Swanson could lead to something closer to $20MM annually. If the CBT barrier is something they’re trying to avoid, then it’s possible the difference between a Correa and a Swanson deal could be significant for them.

For the Dodgers, they have lost their incumbent shortstop in Turner, who is now with the Phillies. The club is reportedly comfortable with moving Gavin Lux from second base to be their new shortstop, though it also makes sense for them to explore what else is available. However, they are apparently not pursuing Correa, given both his ties to the scandal-plagued 2017 Astros team that defeated the Dodgers in the World Series, as well as his high asking price. Perhaps Swanson is an attractive backup plan for the club, though they might also prefer to wait until they get clarity on the Trevor Bauer situation before making firm commitments. He is appealing his suspension and if he is successful in overturning it, the club’s CBT figure would jump from around $189MM to over $220MM. A decision is expected in the next month or so.

If that scenario were to come to pass, even a slightly more modest deal for Swanson would push them over the line into tax payor status. Since the club is reportedly considering dipping under the line to reset their status, that could be an issue. The CBT features escalating penalties for paying in consecutive seasons, meaning that the Dodgers could stay under the line in 2023 but go into 2024 as “first-time” payors.

Though he’s likely to secure a lesser contract than Correa, Swanson is no slouch. He hit 27 home runs in 2022 and produced an overall batting line of .277/.329/.447 for a wRC+ of 116. That was his first time being above-average at the plate over a full season, though it showed that he is capable of being an all-around contributor. He also stole 18 bases and posted excellent defensive marks, leading to 6.4 wins above replacement on the season, in the eyes of FanGraphs.

Red Sox Sign Kenley Jansen

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Dec. 13: The Sox have made it official, announcing the signing. Infielder Hoy Park was designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Dec. 7, 11:03am: Jansen will be paid an even $16MM in each season of the contract, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.

9:35am: The Red Sox are in agreement on a two-year, $32MM contract with free-agent right-hander Kenley Jansen, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link). The Wasserman client becomes the third free-agent reliever to sign in Boston this winter, joining righty Chris Martin and lefty Joely Rodriguez in what’s becoming a rapidly overhauled bullpen.

"<strongChange was necessary in the Boston ’pen, however, as Red Sox relievers logged the fifth-worst ERA in baseball (4.59) and ninth-worst FIP (4.13) — due in no small part to combining for the fifth-highest walk rate of any relief corps in MLB. The ninth inning, in particular, was a revolving door for the Sox in 2022. Nine different relievers recorded saves, and righties John Schreiber, Tanner Houck and Matt Barnes finished the season in a three-way tie for the team lead, at eight apiece.

Jansen, nine saves away from 400 in his illustrious career, should bring some much-needed stability to the situation. The 35-year-old’s velocity is down a couple miles per hour from its 2014 peak, but he’s managed to find plenty of success even as his deadly cutter has faded from an average of nearly 95 mph to a 92.2 mph average with the Braves in 2022.

It was just a one-year stay in Atlanta for Jansen, who’d spent the prior 12 seasons of his big league career with the Dodgers, but the results were strong. Jansen saved 41 games and pitched to a 3.38 ERA with even better secondary marks: a 32.7% strikeout rate, an 8.5% walk rate and a 2.76 SIERA, to name a few. That walk rate, in particular, marked a pronounced rebound from an uncharacteristic spike to 12.9% in 2021, which now looks more like an anomaly than the start of a worrying trend.

Jansen’s 2022 season wasn’t without its red flags. Last season’s 11.4% swinging-strike rate was a career-low by a full two percentage points and clocked in 3.9 percentage points south of his 15.3% career mark. He also required a stint on the injured list due to an irregular heartbeat for the fourth time in his career. Jansen has had a pair of cardiac ablation procedures in hopes of finally putting the heart issues behind him. While it seems he’s not entirely clear of the longstanding issue, it’s also encouraging that he returned in the minimum 15 days this time around.

The 2022 season marked Jansen’s 13th season in the Majors, all of which have resulted in an ERA of 3.71 or lower (including nine sub-3.00 campaigns and four sub-2.00 seasons). Despite the brief absence due to his heartbeat issue, the otherwise-durable Jansen topped 60 innings in nine of the past ten full, 162-game seasons. It’s fair to say that he’s gone from virtually unbeatable in his 20s to “merely” excellent in his 30s, but Jansen still possesses a 3.08 ERA in 292 innings since turning 30.

A deepened relief corps with newly signed veterans allows the Red Sox to more confidently give some key young arms a look in the rotation. Garrett Whitlock has oscillated between starting and relieving, but the organization plans to use him as a starter in 2023, GM Brian O’Halloran said earlier in the offseason. Fellow righty Tanner Houck could also get a look in the rotation, O’Halloran added, though no formal decision has been announced on that front. In all likelihood, his role will depend on the manner in which the Sox are able to either bolster the starting rotation and/or further deepen the bullpen.

The Red Sox paid the luxury tax by a narrow margin in 2023, but with the potential departures of Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill and Matt Strahm (who’s reportedly nearing a deal with the Phillies), Boston’s current luxury projection is nearly $60MM shy of the first-tier tax threshold — even including the salaries of newcomers Jansen, Martin and Rodriguez. Boston had more money coming off the books than nearly any team in the sport this winter, and as things stand, they’re more than $70MM from their franchise record for Opening Day payroll.

In that respect, the deluge of near-misses the Sox have had in free agency thus far are extra discouraging. The Red Sox made a three-year offer to Jose Abreu before he signed in Houston, for instance, and they reportedly believed they were close to a three-year, $40MM deal with righty Zach Eflin before he the Florida native the same contract with his home-state Rays. Boston has also reportedly made offers to Andrew Heaney and Tommy Kahnle before they agreed to deals with the Rangers and Yankees, respectively, and the Sox had talks with the Brewers about Kolten Wong before he was traded to the Mariners.

Frustrating as it must be for both the front office and fan base to see so many pursuits come up empty-handed, the Sox are still sporting as much financial firepower as any team on the market. Bringing Jansen into the fold gives the Sox a strong end-of-the-game presence, as he can join Martin and Schreiber in handling high-leverage spots next season. There’s still work to be done in the rotation and in the lineup, and Boston continues to pursue a reunion with Bogaerts as well as a possible extension with third baseman Rafael Devers. Jansen checks one notable item off chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom’s to-do list, but expect plenty of additional activity from the Sox as they look to leverage their considerable financial resources.

Giants Sign Ross Stripling

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1:05pm: The Giants announced the signing.

11:58am: The Giants have agreed to a two-year, $25MM contract with free-agent righty Ross Stripling, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link). Stripling, a client of Excel Sports Management, will be able to opt out of the contract after the 2023 season. It’s the exact same set of terms the Giants used to reel in lefty Sean Manaea earlier this week.

The contract contains a $5MM signing bonus that’ll be paid out in equal $2.5MM installments — one in 2023 and one in 2024, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Stripling will also earn a $7.5MM salary this coming season before deciding whether to opt out of a $12.5MM salary for the 2024 campaign.

Stripling, 33, is surely a familiar face for Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, whose time as Dodgers general manager overlapped with Stripling’s time in Los Angeles. The veteran righty has served as a swingman for much of his time in the Majors, often functioning as a sixth starter with the Dodgers or with the Blue Jays, who acquired him at the 2020 trade deadline.

The 2022 season, however, saw Stripling step into a full-time rotation role when the Jays lost lefty Hyun Jin Ryu to Tommy John surgery. Stripling proved to be a godsend, making 24 starts and pitching to a 2.92 ERA in 123 1/3 innings out of the rotation. That’s an average of just over five frames per start, but Stripling’s results were nothing short of excellent.

In Stripling, the Giants will add a versatile arm who’s had success in multiple roles. He won’t overpower many hitters with a fastball that averaged just 91.9 mph, but Stripling offsets a below-average 20.7% strikeout rate with a solid 43.8% grounder rate and some of the best command in the Majors. This past season’s 3.7% walk rate was the third-lowest mark of any pitcher to throw at least 100 innings in 2022, and his 11% swinging-strike rate and 37.9% opponents’ chase rate at least suggest that there’s some strikeout upside even with the pedestrian velocity.

It bears mentioning that from 2020-21, Stripling logged an unsightly 5.14 ERA and 5.52 FIP in 150 2/3 innings between the Dodgers and Jays, due in no small part to a mammoth average of 2.2 homers per nine innings pitched. However, the long ball hasn’t been a prominent source of trouble for him outside those two seasons, and he registered a career-best 0.8 homer per nine frames this past season. Aside from that two-year rough patch, Stripling carries a sub-4.00 ERA in his other five MLB campaigns.

For the Giants, Stripling adds even more depth to an already strong group of potential starters. He joins the aforementioned Manaea as a complement to ace Logan Webb, lefty Alex Wood and righties Alex Cobb and Anthony DeSclafani. The Giants also enjoyed a nice rebound from swingman Jakob Junis in 2022, giving them at least seven rotation options on the big league roster.

It’s fair to wonder whether the addition of Stripling more formally removes the Giants from the bidding on free-agent ace Carlos Rodon, who opted out of the second year of his contract in San Francisco and has reportedly been seeking a deal of at least six to seven years in length this winter. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported yesterday that the Giants remained in pursuit of Rodon even after agreeing to terms with Manaea, but Stripling further crowds the pitching staff.

Regardless of whether Rodon remains in the cards, the forthcoming additions of Manaea and Stripling position the Giants well in the event of injuries arising elsewhere on the starting staff. That’s critical for the Giants, given the health track records of several of their in-house options. DeSclafani tossed only 19 innings in 2022 due to a tendon injury in his ankle that ultimately required surgery. Wood and Cobb worked a mostly full slate of starts last year, but Cobb pitched just 158 innings from 2019-21 and Wood logged only 48 1/3 innings from 2019-20 due to shoulder and neck woes. Even Webb, who worked a team-high 192 1/3 innings in 2022, missed a few weeks in 2021 due to a shoulder strain.

After bringing Stripling into the fold, the Giants are up to a projected $157.6MM payroll for the upcoming season and a luxury-tax ledger just north of $180MM, per Roster Resource. They’re still more than $40MM south of their franchise-record $200.5MM Opening Day payroll and more than $50MM shy of the $233MM luxury-tax barrier. That type of payroll space sets the stage for another marquee addition, should the Giants find a deal to their liking. They’ve already added Manaea, Stripling and Mitch Haniger, in addition to retaining Joc Pederson on a qualifying offer, but the Giants have been linked to Rodon and are one of the primary suitors for free-agent shortstop Carlos Correa, so the Stripling pact surely isn’t their final move of the offseason.

Rays Designate J.P. Feyereisen For Assignment, Expect To Trade Him

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10:40am: At the press conference to introduce Eflin, general manager Peter Bendix said the Rays fully expect to find a trade partner for Feyereisen (Twitter link via Topkin).

9:58am: The Rays have designated right-hander J.P. Feyereisen for assignment in order to open a spot on then roster for right-hander Zach Eflin, whose previously reported three-year deal is now official.

While Feyereisen’s DFA might raise some eyebrows, given a sensational 2022 season in which he pitched 24 1/3 shutout innings for Tampa Bay with a 25-to-5 K/BB ratio, the decision comes less than a week after the right-hander required surgery to repair the labrum and rotator cuff in his ailing right shoulder. Feyereisen won’t throw a ball for at least four months and is expected to be shelved well into the 2023 season. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that Feyereisen isn’t expected back until late August.

Prior to the 2022 season, Feyereisen had enjoyed success in the upper minors but displayed more red flags in the big leagues. A 2.73 ERA in 56 innings between the Brewers and the Rays in 2021 was clearly encouraging, but Feyereisen walked a whopping 14.1% of his opponents that season, making that output appear unsustainable. The Rays, however, managed to sharpen his command in 2022, as he fanned 29.1% of hitters against a tidy 5.8% walk rate. His career walk rate of 12% is still concerning, particularly when coupled with the recent shoulder operation, but Feyereisen clearly has the makings of a solid late-game reliever if he can sustain his improved 2022 command.

The Rays, of course, could have opted to keep Feyereisen on the 40-man roster and place him on the 60-day injured list when Spring Training commences — there’s no injured list in the offseason — but they’re in somewhat of a bind, given that Feyereisen is just one of several players ticketed for the 60-day IL when camp begins. Both Shane Baz and Andrew Kittredge figure to require placement on the 60-day IL themselves, as each is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Waiting until Spring Training to make those moves would’ve effectively left the Rays working with a 37-man roster throughout the offseason.

Even with Feyereisen’s recent surgery, there’s a strong chance today’s DFA will spell the end of his time with the Rays. He has only two-plus years of MLB service time, meaning an acquiring team could control the 29-year-old righty for another four seasons. Even if he’ll miss a considerable portion of the 2023 season, there’s plenty of appeal in adding an arm of Feyereisen’s caliber, whether via a small trade or waiver claim, knowing he can be reasonably expected to be healthy for the 2024-26 seasons. The Rays clearly didn’t feel they had the luxury of rostering three immediate 60-day IL placements for the remainder of the offseason, but other clubs with greater flexibility won’t have such pressing concerns.

Guardians To Sign Mike Zunino

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The Guardians are in agreement on a contract with free-agent catcher Mike Zunino, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). It’s a one-year, $6MM contract for the Wasserman client, tweets Robert Murray of FanSided.

Zunino, 32 in March, should continue the tradition of high-quality defense behind the plate in Cleveland, though like many of his recent predecessors, he’s seen his fair share of struggles at the plate. The former No. 3 overall draft pick (Mariners, 2012) has batted under .200 in five of his ten Major League seasons, though he’s partially offset his penchant for punchouts with strong glovework and enormous power.

The 2022 season was perhaps the worst of Zunino’s career, as he turned in a .148/.195/.304 batting line in 123 plate appearances before undergoing season-ending surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome. Just one season prior, however, Zunino mashed a career-best 33 home runs through just 375 plate appearances while batting .216/.301/.559. He’s had several seasons in which his power and defense have made him a valuable all-around asset even in spite of his perennially low batting averages and on-base percentages. All told, Zunino is a career .200/.271/.410 hitter with 146 home runs in 2958 plate appearances.

While the Guardians had a clear need for help behind the plate, Zunino is somewhat antithetical to the general hitting philosophy the Guardians relied on in 2022 when surging to the AL Central crown. Cleveland emphasized hitters who put the ball in play above all else, even designating struggling and strikeout-prone DH Franmil Reyes over the summer, and finished out the season with an MLB-low 18.2% strikeout rate as a team. Zunino, however, has a career 34.7% strikeout rate — one of the highest levels of any hitter during his decade in the big leagues.

Defensively, Zunino has been about average in terms of throwing out potential base thieves, with a career 28% caught-stealing mark that sits narrowly ahead of the 27% league average during his MLB tenure. That said, he’s consistently rated anywhere from above-average to excellent in terms of pitch framing, and Defensive Runs Saved credits him with a hearty +51 mark over his 6894 career innings behind the dish.

Zunino might not be quite on the same defensive level as the man he’ll be replacing, free agent Austin Hedges (arguably MLB’s best defensive catcher), but even if the pair both struggle to keep their average north of .200, Zunino trounces Hedges in terms of career power output and (to a lesser extent) on-base percentage. There will likely be even fewer balls in play off the bat of Zunino than with Hedges (career 27.7% strikeout rate), but the pitches on which Zunino does connect will be put into play with considerably more authority. Zunino’s career 89.7 mph average exit velocity and 41.6% hard-hit rate tower over Hedges’ marks of 86.4 mph and 29.8%, and Zunino has been particularly strong in this regard since 2021 (91 mph average exit velocity, 44.9% hard-hit rate).

Of course, all of that assumes good health, which is a lot to presume in the wake of an ominous TOS procedure. Thoracic outlet surgery is far more common among pitchers than position players, so there’s not much of a precedent for how a hitter — particularly a catcher — will recover from the ailment. Symptoms of TOS often include numbness in the hand/fingertips and weakness in the shoulder area, so there’s certainly some medical risk.

Zunino becomes the second free-agent addition to the reigning AL Central division champions, who recently signed slugger Josh Bell to a two-year, $33MM contract that allows him to opt out of the deal after one season. Bell and Zunino will unquestionably add some thump to a Guardians club that ranked 29th in baseball in both home runs (127) and ISO (.129). They’ll also boost the Guards’ projected payroll to a bit more than $92MM, which is miles away from the franchise-record mark of $135MM in 2018 but still a far sight north of last year’s $68.2MM Opening Day mark.

The one-year term of the deal is reflective both of Cleveland’s general aversion to long-term free-agent deals and to the fact that the front office hopes to have its catcher of the future on the cusp of MLB readiness. Bo Naylor, selected with the No. 29 overall pick in 2018, made his big league debut briefly in 2022, though he did not reach base in a tiny sample of eight plate appearances. Naylor, however, hit .271/.427/.471 in 52 Double-A games before ascending to Triple-A and batting .257/.366/.514 in an additional 66 games.

Scouting reports on Naylor, the younger brother of Cleveland first baseman/outfielder Josh Naylor, cite a need to improve his defense behind the plate and improve his bat-to-ball skills at the plate — he fanned in 25.9% of his Triple-A plate appearances — so it seems likely that Cleveland will hope he can continue to work on those areas of his game in the upper minors to begin the season.

There’s little sense in carrying the younger Naylor brother as a backup catcher when he’s viewed as a potential long-term regular, and the typically low-payroll Guardians likely wouldn’t commit $6MM to Zunino in order for him to serve as a backup. Cleveland has fellow catcher Bryan Lavastida on the 40-man and recently invited former Royals and Rangers backstop Meibrys Viloria to Spring Training. Either could open the season as Zunino’s backup, and it remains possible that the front office will add another name to that backup competition between now and Opening Day.

Pirates Sign Vince Velasquez

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Dec. 13: The Pirates have formally announced a one-year deal with Velasquez. Their 40-man roster is now full. Pittsburgh has yet to formally announce the signing of lefty Jarlin Garcia, who agreed to a deal on the same day as Velasquez. They’ll need to make a corresponding 40-man move for Garcia once his physical is complete and that deal is official.

Dec. 6: The Pirates and righty Vince Velasquez are in agreement on a one-year deal, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com. Velasquez will make $3.15MM, according to Robert Murray of FanSided. Velasquez is represented by CAA Sports.

Velasquez, 31 in June, has pitched in each of the past eight MLB seasons, mostly with the Phillies but also with the Astros, Padres and White Sox. He has occasionally tantalized with some high strikeout numbers but has rarely been able to be consistently effective for extended stretches. His lowest ERA in a single season is 4.12, which came back in 2016, though he’s also been above 5.00 in three separate seasons, including one above 6.00. His career high in terms of strikeout rate is 29.9%, in the shortened 2020 campaign, but it’s also been as low as 21.6%. His walk rate has been as low as 7.8% but also as high as 11.8%.

All told, Velasquez has 726 1/3 innings in his career with a 4.93 ERA, 25.1% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate. Those numbers vaguely resemble an effective back-end starter, which Velasquez has occasionally been, just not reliably. Last year, he signed a $3MM deal with the White Sox and began the year in the rotation but was hit hard and bumped to the bullpen before the end of May, only making two starts for the rest of the year.

It’s unclear if the Pirates plan to use him as a starter or a reliever, but he fits the mold of the low-cost rotation addition they have done in recent years. They signed Tyler Anderson to a $2.5MM deal in 2021 and traded him to the Mariners at the deadline for prospects Carter Bins and Joaquin Tejada. Going into 2022, they inked Jose Quintana to a $2MM deal and later flipped him to the Cardinals, alongside Chris Stratton, for Johan Oviedo and Malcom Nunez. It’s possible that they have similar designs on Velasquez this year, with the veteran ideally holding down a rotation spot and pitching well enough to become a midseason target of other clubs.

The Pirates have been aggressively rebuilding in recent years, finishing last in the National League Central in each of the past four seasons, tying with the Reds in 2022. It’s unlikely they will suddenly jump into contention in 2023, but they have been looking to bolster their young roster with some veteran additions on short-term deals. They acquired Ji-Man Choi from the Rays and signed free agent Carlos Santana for their first base/designated hitter mix, then signed Jarlín García for some left-handed relief. It was reported earlier this morning that starting pitching was on the list with the club looking to potentially add a couple of arms into the rotation. If Velasquez is indeed one of them, he will join Mitch Keller and Roansy Contreras, with JT Brubaker likely taking up a spot as well. There are some in-house options who could be in the mix as well, including Oviedo, Luis Ortiz, Bryse Wilson and Zach Thompson, with health and performance likely determining who gets the nod most frequently. If they find enough success in that group to bump Velasquez to the bullpen, he posted a 4.25 ERA as a reliever in 2022 compared to a 5.26 as a starter.

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