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Braves Acquire Sean Murphy, Brewers Acquire William Contreras In Three-Team Trade

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The Braves, Brewers and A’s have agreed to a three-team blockbuster that will see each team get a new catcher with nine players involved in total. The full trade is as follows:

Braves get catcher Sean Murphy, giving up Kyle Muller, Royber Salinas, Justin Yeager, Freddy Tarnok, Manny Piña and William Contreras.

Brewers get William Contreras, Joel Payamps, Justin Yeager, giving up Esteury Ruiz.

A’s get Kyle Muller, Esteury Ruiz, Freddy Tarnok, Royber Salinas and Manny Piña, giving up Sean Murphy and Joel Payamps.

The deal is official, with the clubs all making announcements.

This move finally brings an end to a trade saga that has been going on for about a year now. After the 2021 season, the A’s leaned hard into a rebuild that saw them trade away Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt before Opening Day, with Frankie Montas getting flipped at the 2022 deadline.

Murphy was widely seen as the next to go for a number of reasons. Firstly, he just crossed three years of MLB service time in 2022 and will now be making higher salaries via arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected that Murphy will jump to $3.5MM in 2023 with two further bumps before reaching free agency after 2025. Secondly, the A’s received a highly-touted catching prospect from Atlanta in the Olson deal in Shea Langeliers. He had an excellent season in Triple-A and carried himself well in a 40-game debut in the majors. Given all those factors, it seemed more and more likely that the A’s would hand the job over to Langeliers and trade Murphy for improvements elsewhere on the roster.

By taking this path, the A’s are parting with one of the best catchers in the game. The 28-year-old Murphy has 330 games in the big leagues under his belt thus far and has performed well in just about every facet of the game. He’s hit 46 home runs and has a combined batting line of .236/.326/.429. That production leads to a wRC+ of 116, indicating he’s been 16% above the league average hitter and even further ahead of the average catcher, since they generally come in a bit lower than others. He also took a step forward at the plate in 2022, striking out in just 20.3% of his plate appearances after being above 25% in his career prior to that.

Defensively, Murphy gets rave reviews as well. Since the start of 2020, he’s posted 13 Defensive Runs Saved behind the plate, a number that places him in the top 10 in the league. FanGraphs’ framing metric gives him a 19.5 in that timeframe, the third-highest such tally. Those all-around contributions have allowed him to produce 10 wins above replacement in those three seasons, according to FanGraphs, second among all MLB catchers with only J.T. Realmuto ahead of him.

Taking all that into consideration, it’s hardly surprising that Murphy garnered plenty of interest around the league. The Diamondbacks, Astros, Cubs, Guardians, Twins, White Sox, Red Sox, Rays, and Cardinals were some of the teams connected to him at various points in recent months. It was reported about a week ago that the Braves were getting close to acquiring him but president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos shot down those reports, saying that he didn’t anticipate a trade. That was either a bluff or something drastically changed in the past week since Atlanta have now indeed closed the deal. This is now the third huge deal Anthopoulos has negotiated with the A’s, though David Forst has since taken over baseball operations from Billy Beane. He acquired Josh Donaldson when he was working for the Blue Jays and has now nabbed Olson and Murphy for the Braves.

Atlanta always seemed a curious fit for Murphy given that they already had three viable catchers on the roster in Contreras, Piña and Travis d’Arnaud. They have cleared out that logjam and acquired Murphy in one fell swoop by including two of those catchers in the deal. On the surface, it seems that the club was keen to swap out Contreras for Murphy as a way of improving behind the plate. However, since the A’s seem set to give Langeliers a shot, it’s possible they were less interested in Contreras, which necessitated Milwaukee’s involvement.

That’s not to say that Contreras isn’t an exciting young catcher in his own right. It’s just that, as mentioned, Murphy is one of the best in the game. Contreras will now join his older brother Willson Contreras, who recently signed with the Cardinals, in the NL Central. The younger Contreras has gotten into 153 games in his career so far, hitting 28 home runs and producing an overall batting line of .260/.338/.471 for a wRC+ of 121. His defensive work isn’t as highly rated as his bat, but he’s still quite young, turning 25 later this month. Even with subpar defense, he’s produced 2.5 fWAR in his brief career thus far, meaning any developments in that department would make him tremendously valuable. It had been recently reported that the Brewers were interested in catching upgrades, but since the club has been paring back a tight payroll, they never seemed like candidates for a big free agent splash. Instead, they’ve acquired a young backstop who has yet to reach arbitration eligibility and has five years of club control remaining. The club has also added a couple of depth arms in Payamps and Yeager.

For the A’s, it’s been reported that they have been prioritizing MLB-ready talent in their trade talks and they have achieved that here. Muller, 25, has appeared in each of the past two major league seasons, logging 49 innings so far. He has an unimpressive 5.14 ERA in that time, but he’s fared much better in the minors. He’s made 40 Triple-A starts in the past two years and has a 3.40 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate. Baseball America recently ranked him the top prospect in Atlanta’s system.

Ruiz has spent most of his career in the Padres’ system but he went to the Brewers in the Josh Hader trade last year. He has some MLB experience, having played in 17 games this year between the two clubs. In 114 minor league games, he hit .332/.447/.526 while stealing 85 bases in 114 games. BA has not yet published their list of top Milwaukee prospects for this offseason, but Ben Badler of BA tweets that Ruiz was going to be in the #8 slot.

Tarnok also has very limited MLB experience, with 2/3 of an inning on the books so far. He threw 106 2/3 innings in the minors this year with a 4.05 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate. He ranked #9 on the BA list of top Atlanta prospects. Piña is a 35-year-old veteran who is likely to serve as insurance in case Langeliers struggles or needs some veteran guidance. He signed a two-year, $8MM deal with Atlanta but required season-ending wrist surgery in May. He’ll earn $4.5MM in 2023 with a $4MM club option for 2024 with no buyout.

The one prospect who isn’t likely to help the big league club immediately is Salinas. He turns 22 in April and split the most recent season between Single-A and High-A. He posted a 3.55 ERA over 25 starts with a huge 37.6% strikeout rate but a 13.5% walk rate. Baseball America recently placed him #7 on their list of Atlanta prospects.

The Braves were facing a challenge in the NL East despite having won the division in five straight seasons. The Mets and Phillies have been been spending wildly to upgrade for the coming season. The Mets have added Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, José Quintana and David Robertson, in addition to re-signing Brandon Nimmo and Edwin Díaz. The Phillies have signed Trea Turner, Taijuan Walker and Matt Strahm. The Braves were going to face a challenge in keeping up with that pace since they were nearing the luxury tax. As is his wont, Anthopoulos has turned to the trade market to make his upgrades. The club still has a question mark at shortstop, with Dansby Swanson having departed for free agency. They could always bring him back though they reportedly haven’t been talking much this offseason. After this trade, the club’s CBT figure is at $229MM, per Roster Resource, just shy of the $233MM luxury tax threshold for next year.

For the Brewers, they’ve parted with an outfield prospect they just acquired but have added an exciting young catcher, something they would be challenged to do in free agency with their payroll constraints. For the A’s, they have parted with yet another established major leaguer, adding to the list of quality players they’ve sent out the door. In exchange, they’ve brought in one veteran backstop and four young players that they hope can be a part of forming the next competitive core in Oakland.

Talkin’ Jake of Jomboy Media first reported that the Braves, Brewers and A’s were lining up on a deal, as well as the involvement of Contreras (Twitter links). Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported Murphy going to the Braves, as well as the involvement of Piña and the eventual final deal. Robert Murray of FanSided first mentioned Ruiz and Tarnok (Twitter links). Joel Sherman first mentioned Payamps and Yeager on Twitter. Kiley McDaniel first had Muller’s name on Twitter.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Yankees Preparing To Make Formal Contract Offer To Carlos Rodon

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The Yankees are expected to put forth a contract offer to Carlos Rodón in the coming days, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman has suggested on a few occasions the Yankees have serious interest in the top free agent starter remaining, and putting a formal proposal on the table would mark a notable step in that pursuit.

Terms of the proposal aren’t clear, though Heyman reiterates that New York is reluctant to offer the seven-plus guaranteed seasons the southpaw and his representatives at the Boras Corporation reportedly seek. A seventh year is a lofty goal for Rodón’s camp, assuming they’re not banking in a notable dip on an annual basis to compensate for the longer term. That doesn’t appear to be the case, as Heyman writes they’re looking for a deal that tops $200MM in guarantees.

That’s rare territory, as only six pitchers have surpassed the $200MM mark. Gerrit Cole stands head and shoulders above the pack at $324MM over nine years, with the rest of the group checking in between $206.5MM and $245MM. Stephen Strasburg, David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke are the only other hurlers to reach that level. A handful of additional free agent pitchers (Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, CC Sabathia and Barry Zito) have reached seven-plus years on deals under $200MM, but that’s itself a rare occurrence for a pitcher.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a five-year, $140MM guarantee for Rodón. The free agent rotation market has generally been more robust than anticipated, and at least a six-year deal now seems very attainable for the two-time All-Star. Landing a seventh season at an annual salary below that projected $28MM — thereby decreasing the deal’s average annual value and lowering the luxury tax hit for a signing team — could be on the table. That’s been a common strategy this offseason, with Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Brandon Nimmo all taking slight discounts on a per-year basis for very long deals with larger guarantees than forecasted. The best of both worlds for Rodón, of course, would be a seven-year term that doesn’t relinquish anything on an annual basis. It remains to be seen if a team will go to those lengths, with a seven-year pact requiring at least $28.57MM in annual salary to get to $200MM total.

Rodón is the only free agent ace still available. Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander were the two free agent hurlers who could rival or best Rodón from a performance perspective. Their ages limited them to shorter deals (five and two years, respectively) than the one Rodón is seeking. At age 30, the former third overall draftee has arguably the best combination of performance track record and youth among this year’s class of hurlers. However, he’s not without some question marks as a player with a Tommy John surgery and a shoulder procedure on his injury history.

The North Carolina State product stayed healthy in 2022, tossing a career-high 178 innings of 2.88 ERA ball for the Giants. He was brilliant for a second straight season, striking out a third of opponents with solid control. On a rate basis, he’s one of the sport’s top pitchers, but he doesn’t have the workload track record of any pitcher who’d previously gotten to $200MM.

Cole, Strasburg, Price, Kershaw, Scherzer and Grienke had all had multiple seasons with 200+ innings pitched prior to inking their megadeals; Rodón has never gotten to that level. Workload for starting pitchers continues to dwindle, though, and it stands to reason teams will increasingly value per-inning performance while weighing workload volume less as expectations for pitcher roles change.

New York and the incumbent Giants have been tied to Rodón on a few occasions, and Heyman added the Cardinals as a team with interest over the weekend. The Rangers, Mets and Blue Jays were tied to him earlier in the offseason, but Texas later added Andrew Heaney to join deGrom while Toronto agreed to terms with Chris Bassitt this evening. The Mets landed each of Verlander, José Quintana and Kodai Senga. The Orioles, Red Sox and Twins have also been very loosely linked to Rodón in prior reports, although the extent of the interest of all three clubs isn’t clear.

Twins, Christian Vazquez Agree To Three-Year Deal

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The Twins have jumped into a fast-moving catching market, reportedly agreeing to terms with Christian Vázquez on a three-year contract. The deal, which is pending a physical, will guarantee him $30MM. Vázquez is represented by MDR Sports Management.

A longtime member of the Red Sox, Vázquez now changes uniforms for the second time in five months. Boston dealt him to the Astros at this past summer’s trade deadline, bringing back prospects Wilyer Abreu and Enmanuel Valdez for the final half-season before he hit free agency. That left Vázquez in an unfamiliar role splitting time with Martín Maldonado, but it positioned him to secure his second World Series title.

Vázquez, 32, is one of the better all-around catchers in the game. A light-hitting defensive specialist for his first few seasons, the Puerto Rico native has taken a step forward with the bat over the past four years. He hit .276/.320/.477 in 521 plate appearances in 2019, popping a career-best 23 home runs. Vázquez hasn’t replicated that kind of power outside a season with perhaps the liveliest ball the league has ever used, never reaching double digit longballs in another season. Still, he’s been an adequate hitter in two of the past three years. Vázquez stumbled to a .258/.308/.352 mark in 2021, but he was an above-average hitter during the abbreviated 2020 campaign and roughly league average this past season.

Going back to the start of 2019, he owns a .271/.318/.416 line in slightly more than 1600 plate appearances. That’s five percentage points below league average overall, by measure of wRC+, but it’s above par for a catcher. Backstops have a cumulative .232/.304/.390 mark over that stretch. Vázquez doesn’t draw many walks and, 2019 aside, rarely hits for power. His high-contact approach differentiates him from most of his positional peers, as he owns the fifth-lowest strikeout percentage among catchers (minimum 750 plate appearances) since the start of 2019.

The 2022 season was generally par for the course. Among 29 catchers with 300+ trips to the dish, he had the fourth-lowest strikeout rate (16.2%) and fourth-best rate of contact per swing (85.1%). Overall, Vázquez posted a .274/.315/.399 line in 119 games. He carried an impressive .282/.327/.432 mark with the Red Sox before the trade but stumbled to a .250/.278/.308 showing in 35 regular season games as an Astro. Vázquez also did very little offensively in his six-game playoff showing.

The Twins clearly aren’t deterred by that slow finish to the year. That came in an unfamiliar role dividing his reps with Maldonado, and Minnesota presumably anticipates he’ll more closely approximate his production from his time in Boston moving forward. Offense is only part of the story and Vázquez has an excellent reputation with the glove.

For his career, Vázquez has nabbed just under 34% of attempted basestealers. He had a more modest 27.1% mark this year, but that’s still narrowly above the roughly 25% league average. Statcast also credits him with a better than average arm, placing him 20th among 73 catchers with 10+ throws in pop time (average time to throw to second base). Vázquez consistently draws strong grades from public pitch framing metrics. Pair strong receiving with his ability to control the running game, he’s been rated as an above-average catcher by measure of Defensive Runs Saved in all but one season of his career. DRS pegged him 11 runs above par in 2022 and has rated him as 51 runs above average over his eight years in the majors.

That wealth of experience calling games certainly added to Vázquez’s appeal to the Minnesota front office. The Twins have young backstop Ryan Jeffers on hand already. The 25-year-old will continue to see a fair amount of run at Target Field, but president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine have each spoken of a desire to add another starting-caliber catcher to pair with Jeffers. They’ve done just that, leaving manager Rocco Baldelli to decide how to divvy up playing time.

Jeffers, a right-handed hitter, has been far better against lefty pitching (.263/.344/.450) than same-handed opponents (.185/.256/.361) through his first couple MLB campaigns. Vázquez also hits right-handed and is better against southpaws, but his career splits aren’t so drastic. He has a .257/.309/.422 line against lefty arms and a .263/.310/.372 mark against right-handers. Falvey has already suggested the Twins don’t plan to relegate Jeffers solely to the small side of a platoon, but the presence of a more balanced hitter in Vázquez gives Baldelli some more flexibility in matching up against opposing pitchers.

It’s the first meaningful dip into free agency for Minnesota this offseason. Vázquez’s contract lands right in line with MLBTR’s prediction of $27MM over three years. The specific financial breakdown hasn’t yet been reported, but an even distribution of $10MM annually would bring Minnesota’s 2023 payroll around $107MM, in the estimation of Roster Resource. There’s a fair amount of room before getting to this past season’s approximate $134MM mark, and the Twins surely aren’t finished. Addressing shortstop — where the organization awaits Carlos Correa’s decision — is the big question, but the Twins also could stand to upgrade both areas of the pitching staff (especially the bullpen) and potentially shake up their outfield.

Vázquez’s signing follows last week’s five-year agreement between the Cardinals and Willson Contreras and this afternoon’s blockbuster that sent Sean Murphy to Atlanta. As a result, the catching market is drying up quickly. The Blue Jays can still dangle one of their three backstops, with Danny Jansen seemingly the most likely to move. Free agency is without many obvious solutions at this point, with glove-first players like Austin Hedges, Tucker Barnhart, Roberto Pérez and Mike Zunino (the latter two of whom saw their 2022 seasons cut short by surgery) among the options.

Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported Vázquez was making progress on a deal with an unknown team. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the backstop was in agreement with the Twins. Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reported it was a three-year contract, while Ted Schwerzler of Twins Daily was first to report the $30MM guarantee.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Guardians Sign Josh Bell

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December 12: The Guardians have made it official, announcing that they have signed Bell to a two-year deal.

December 6: The Guardians have agreed to a two-year, $33MM contract with free-agent first baseman Josh Bell, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Bell, a client of the Boras Corporation, will be able to opt out of the contract after the first season of the deal.

Josh Bell

It’s a short-term but lucrative annual deal for the 30-year-old Bell, who looked poised for a long-term commitment in free agency before a sluggish finish to the season following a trade to the Padres. The veteran switch-hitter opened the season on a tear with the Nationals and maintained that production into late July, but after slashing .301/.384/.493 with the Nats (143 wRC+), Bell hit just .192/.316/.271 in San Diego.

Ups and downs are nothing new for Bell, who at multiple points in his career has appeared on the cusp of solidifying himself as a star-caliber slugger, only to fall into a prolonged slump. Back in the first half of the 2019 season, for instance, the former No. 61 overall draft pick erupted with a .302/.376/.648 batting line and 27 home runs. That netted him what remains the only All-Star nomination of his career, but following the Midsummer Classic, Bell backtracked with a solid but unspectacular .233/.351/.429 slash.

His offensive doldrums spiraled out of control in 2020, when he turned in a career-worst .226/.305/.364 slash in the shortened 2020 season. Following that disappointing campaign, the Pirates sold low on the former top prospect by flipping his final two years of club control to the Nationals in exchange for righty Wil Crowe and minor leaguer Eddy Yean.

A month into Bell’s Nationals tenure, it looked to be more of the same, but he righted the ship in May. From May 1, 2021 through this year’s trade deadline, Bell came to the plate 945 times and recorded a stout .289/.373/.489 slash with 39 big flies, 46 doubles, an 11.5% walk rate and a 15.3% strikeout rate that’s far lower than many would expect from a 6’4″, 255-pound first baseman with 30-homer power.

In spite of that sizable frame and the clear raw power Bell possesses, however, he’s never really been a consistent power threat — at least not to the extent one would expect. The juiced-ball season in 2019 was his lone 30-homer campaign (37, to be exact), and his season-to-season home run totals have otherwise ranged between 12 (2018) and 27 (2021).

It’s hard not to wonder what might happen were Bell to commit to elevating the ball more, but that’s easier said than done for any hitter. Bell’s enormous 49.9% ground-ball rate is far higher than one would expect for a slugger of his stature, and he’s taken that mark north of 50% in each of the past three seasons, topping out with a mammoth 55.7% grounder rate in 2022. Since 2020, only five hitters in baseball have put the ball on the ground more frequently than Bell — a confounding trait for a switch-hitter with plus raw power. Three different teams have been unable to coax consistent power production from Bell, but the Guardians will give their best effort to unlock his maximum potential.

To be clear, Bell remains a well above-average hitter in the aggregate, even with the glut of grounders and a career punctuated thus far by peaks and valleys. Dating back to 2019, he’s been 20% better than the average hitter by measure of wRC+, and his career mark in that regard sits at 116 (16% better than average). Bell is a lifetime .262/.351/.459 hitter whose only below-average season at the plate came in the shortened 2020 season.

Also appealing to the Guardians was surely the fact that Bell, like so much of their team, is exceedingly difficult to strike out. No team in baseball fanned at a lower clip than the Guardians’ 18.2% last year — nor was anyone particularly close. Bell, who struck out at just a 15.8% rate in 2022, should fit right in. He’s kept his strikeout rate at 19% or lower each season other than that grisly 2020 campaign, and he’s also drawn walks in an excellent 11.8% of his 3406 career plate appearances.

All of that aligns well with Cleveland’s general offensive philosophy, and while it seems that Jose Abreu was the Guards’ first choice — Cleveland reportedly made him a three-year offer before he signed in Houston — Bell still adds some needed thump who can join Josh Naylor in splitting time at designated hitter and first base. Bell isn’t an all-world defender at first, but he’s improved his defensive ratings from sub-par to slightly above average in recent seasons, and the Guardians surely feel confident that he’s a reliable source of at least 15 to 20 homers with a robust on-base percentage. He’ll join Jose Ramirez as a switch-hitting, middle-of-the-order threat, continuing to give the Cleveland lineup plenty of balance.

If things go according to plan and Bell can ward off another prolonged slump to close out the season, he’ll be a strong candidate to exercise that opt-out provision and return to the open market a year from now. As previously laid out, the overall offensive track record for Bell is quite strong; had he not fallen into that San Diego swoon, he and Boras might have had a case for a contract upwards of five years in length. Depending on the extent of Bell’s success, the Guardians could even issue him a qualifying offer upon opting out.

We predicted that Bell would still be able to command a four-year deal around this AAV on our Top 50 free agent rankings, but the two-year term and opt-out provides some of the best of both worlds. If Bell performs well, he can collect a hearty salary in 2022 and try again for a lengthier deal a year from now. If not, he’ll at least have a second season around the going rate for a bat-first slugger of this nature. And, even if he forgoes the opt-out next offseason, a strong 2024 showing could position him for a multi-year deal.

From a payroll vantage point, Cleveland had ample room to plug him into the mix — history of low payrolls notwithstanding. Bell, assuming an even distribution of his $33MM guarantee, pushes the Guardians to just $35.3MM in guaranteed salary next season. Add in another $35.7MM in projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players (tip of the cap to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and a slate of pre-arbitration players to round out the roster, and the Guardians will sit around the $87MM mark next season — at least as things currently stand.

The Guardians opened the 2021 season with just a $49.6MM payroll and were at $68.2MM to begin the 2022 campaign, but they won the AL Central in ’22 and are only five years removed from trotting out an Opening Day payroll of nearly $135MM. At least on paper, there should be room to make further additions, though that’ll depend on ownership’s willingness to further ramp up payroll as they look to repeat in a weak division.

Nationals Sign Trevor Williams To Two-Year Deal

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TODAY: The Nationals officially announced Williams’ deal.

DECEMBER 9, 9:22am: Williams will be guaranteed a total of $13MM, Stephen J. Nesbitt of The Athletic reports (via Twitter).

8:54am: The Nationals are in agreement on a two-year contract with free-agent righty Trevor Williams, reports Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). Williams is represented by John Boggs & Associates.

Williams, 31 in April, has spent the past season and a half with the Mets, pitching to a 3.17 ERA in 122 innings while splitting his time between the rotation (12 starts) and bullpen (28 appearances). He’d previously spent the bulk of his career as a starting pitcher, highlighted by a 31-start, 170 2/3-inning season of 3.11 ERA ball with the Pirates back in 2018. However, Williams has yet to consistently sustain that level of success over the course of multiple seasons.

For instance, Williams followed up that strong 2018 season with a 5.38 ERA in 26 starts in 2019, and he endured similar woes in the shortened 2020 season (6.18 ERA, 55 1/3 innings). That said, Williams has been a source of average or better innings in the other four full seasons of his career, dating back to 2017. In all, he owns a career 4.27 ERA and 4.40 FIP in a span of 715 1/3 Major League innings. He’s also coming off a career-high 22.6% strikeout rate and career-low 6.2% walk rate with the Mets in 2022.

Williams works with a traditional starter’s repertoire, leaning primarily on a four-seam fastball and complementing that with a sinker, slider and changeup that were all used at roughly equal levels in 2022 (plus a much more seldom-used curveball). None of those pitches generate huge spin, and none but the slider come with standout whiff rates. Still, Williams regularly excels at limiting hard contact, with above-average marks in exit velocity and hard-hit rate throughout the majority of his career to this point.

Zuckerman suggests that Williams could well end up in the Nationals’ rotation, but that’s not yet set in stone, and a return to the swingman role in which he’s thrived with the division-rival Mets is possible. At present, the Nats have a pair of albatross contracts atop the rotation in Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin, and that pair will be followed by some combination of Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, Cade Cavalli and perhaps Williams. Given Strasburg’s avalanche of recent injury troubles, plus the uncertainty surrounding inexperienced arms like Gore and Cavalli, there ought to be ample rotation innings available even if Williams initially begins the season in the bullpen.

Williams is the second free-agent addition of the winter for the Nats, who also inked corner infielder Jeimer Candelario to a one-year, $5MM contract last month. Washington has a projected payroll of about $106MM next season, though the bulk of that is tied up in their onerous commitments to Strasburg and Corbin. Strasburg is still signed through the 2026 season, while Corbin is signed through 2024.

Mets Re-Sign Brandon Nimmo To Eight-Year Deal

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Dec 10: The Mets have officially announced the signing.

Dec 8: The Mets and outfielder Brandon Nimmo are in agreement on a deal that would bring him back to Queens. He will make $162MM over eight years, with a salary of $20.25MM in each season. He will have a no-trade clause. Nimmo is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Nimmo, 30 in March, was considered by most observers to be the clear #2 outfielder on this winter’s free agent market, well behind Aaron Judge but also well ahead of anyone else. Nimmo is nowhere near Judge in terms of power, as he has only 63 home runs in his seven-year career, while Judge hit 62 in 2022 alone.

Despite that lack of power, Nimmo stood out from the rest of the outfielders on the market for a couple of reasons. One is an ability to play center field and a second is his ability to get on base. For his career, which began in 2016, he has a 13.6% walk rate and .385 on-base percentage. Only 17 qualified hitters have a better walk rate in that time while only seven have a better OBP. His career batting line is currently .269/.385/.441, leading to a 134 wRC+, indicating he’s been 34% better than the league average hitter.

That level of production would be welcome at any position but it’s especially valuable in center field, where many teams are looking for upgrades. Nimmo was unsurprisingly popular as a free agent, getting publicly reported interest from the Blue Jays, Giants, Yankees, Rays and Mariners, with others surely interested as well. But it will be the Mets, the franchise that drafted Nimmo 13th overall back in 2011, who will keep him. Even before the offseason truly began, it was reported that the Mets were prioritizing retaining Nimmo and closer Edwin Díaz, and they have now succeeded on both fronts.

The deal is not without its risks, as Nimmo has spent his share of time on the injured list. In his career, he has landed on the IL due to hamstring strains, a collapsed lung, a neck issue and a bruised finger. Due to those various ailments, he has only twice eclipsed 100 games in a season. Most of those injuries are a few years in the past at this point, as Nimmo stayed healthy in the shortened 2020 season, played 92 games in 2021 and then 151 games this year. That means he’s been healthy for the vast majority of the past three seasons. However, this deal has gone well beyond expectations in terms of both length and guarantee. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $110MM deal but Nimmo got three extra years and an extra $52MM, meaning this deal will take him into his age-37 season.

But the Mets are clearly as “win-now” as a team can possibly get and likely won’t worry themselves with the later years of the deal for now. Owner Steve Cohen, who just purchased the club at the end of the 2020 season, has shown he’s willing to blow well past previous spending limits shown by the Mets or anyone else. The Mets had never had an Opening Day payroll that reached $160MM in their pre-Cohen history, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. But they moved up to $195MM in 2021 and $264MM this past season. Cohen had previously hinted at a $300MM limit for 2022 to The New York Post but that number is well in the rear-view mirror now.

Today’s deals for Nimmo and reliever David Robertson bring the Mets’ payroll for next season to an incredible $322MM, according to the calculations of Roster Resource. In terms of the competitive balance tax, which uses the annual average values of contracts as opposed to just the 2023 salaries, they are at $335MM. That means they are incredibly more than $100MM beyond the lowest CBT threshold of $233MM. There are also three further tiers of luxury tax payments, going up in $20MM increments to finish at $293MM, with the Mets now more than $40MM above that top level.

The CBT also has escalating penalties for going over the line in successive seasons, with the Mets sure to be a second-time payor. They will pay a 30% tax on spending over the first tier, 42% over the second, 75% over the third and 90% over the fourth. That means that they are currently slated to pay a tax of about $67MM, on top of that $322MM payroll. It’s also possible that they’re not done, as Andy Martino of SNY reports that they could still sign Kodai Senga, even after the Nimmo deal.

It seems that we don’t really know how far Cohen and general manager Billy Eppler are willing to go in their pursuits of building the best baseball team possible. The aggressive spending yielded mixed results in 2022, as the club won 101 games, the second-highest win total in franchise history. However, Atlanta snuck in and nudged the Mets aside for the division crown in the National League East, which then led to the Mets falling to the Padres in the first round of the playoffs.

For 2023, the Mets were facing a serious challenge in even repeating that performance. They had a huge free agent class that included Nimmo, Díaz, Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker, Chris Bassitt and a whole host of relievers. However, they have pulled out all the stops in trying to ramp back up for another shot next year. deGrom and Walker have signed elsewhere, but the Mets signed Justin Verlander and José Quintana to replace them, in addition to retaining Díaz and Nimmo.

Nimmo will now return to his center field position in Queens, flanked by Starling Marte and Mark Canha. The division will be a fascinating one to watch, as the Phillies have followed up their trip to the World Series by aggressively spending on Walker and Trea Turner, while Atlanta are still loaded with all of their young stars that they have locked into lengthy extensions.

Joel Sherman of The New York Post first reported the contract details (Twitter links 1, 2 and 3).

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Braves, Swanson Have Reportedly Had Minimal Negotiations This Offseason

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Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson are the last of this offseason’s “big four” shortstops standing, and while many Braves fans may be holding out hope for a reunion with Swanson, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports that Swanson and the Braves “haven’t had any legit negotiations since the offseason began.” Atlanta’s most recent offer to Swanson was a six-year deal in the $16-17MM range annually, per Bowman, which aligns with last month’s reports that the Braves had offered Swanson a deal in the vicinity of $100MM.

An offer in that range always felt light, even before the recent explosion of megadeals at the top end of the free-agent market. Trevor Story and Javier Baez both landed six-year, $140MM deals last winter, and MLBTR predicted a $154MM guarantee for Swanson back on our Top 50 free agent rankings. With Trea Turner landing $300MM, Xander Bogaerts getting $280MM and most of the top free agents landing larger-than-expected guarantees this winter, Swanson could well outpace that number, too. Certainly, the reported $96-102MM range in which the Braves last sat now feels even less plausible than it did a month ago.

While it’s apparent that the 11-year lengths of both the Turner and Bogaerts deals were rooted in a desire for the Phillies and Padres to mitigate some luxury-tax concerns, there’s also little denying that the overall guarantee of each contract exceeded most expectations. Turner was at least thought to have a chance at $300MM, but Bogaerts utterly shattered even the most bullish predictions by pulling in that $280MM sum. Moreover, because Bogaerts landed with a team that wasn’t even thought to be involved in the shortstop market, he lowered the supply of available shortstops without necessarily suppressing the demand (at least not in the same manner as he would have by signing with the Giants, Twins or another club active in this market).

As such, Swanson is now one of two remaining high-end shortstops in a market that has at least three teams — not including the incumbent Braves — aggressively looking to add a shortstop. Each of the Giants, Twins and Cubs are known to be active in the shortstop market, and it stands to reason that others could be on the periphery.

For example, the Red Sox, having just been spurned by Bogaerts, may not want to pay Correa’s price but could view Swanson as someone they could lure for a contract closer to what they reportedly offered Bogaerts (six years, $162MM). The Orioles, meanwhile, have at least gauged the asking price on the available shortstops, though it’d still register as a shock to see Baltimore earnestly jump into the Swanson bidding. The Cardinals had interest in Swanson but are likely out after instead making their free-agent splash at the catcher position, signing Willson Contreras to a five-year deal.

Perhaps as notable as the lack of offseason communications is Bowman’s further reporting that Swanson has been “bothered by the absence of communication” and recently reached out directly to Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos. It’s hard to hear that and not think back to the free agency of Freddie Freeman last offseason, which obviously culminated in Freeman’s somewhat stunning departure from Atlanta and a six-year deal with the Dodgers.

To this point, there’s no indication that the Braves’ standing offer is their best and final offer. It’s possible that if Swanson comes to the Braves with serious offers from other suitors, Atlanta will commensurately up its offer to Swanson and his agents at Excel Sports Management (the same agency that represented Freeman).

That said, there have been hints since before the offseason even began that retaining Swanson is hardly a foregone conclusion. I broke down the Braves’ payroll and their proximity to the luxury tax months ago, and while both Braves CEO Terry McGuirk and Liberty Media CEO Greg Maffei have offered optimistic comments about being willing to field a top-five payroll, neither pointed out the fact that the Braves are already fairly close to that level — particularly with regard to their ongoing luxury-tax ledger, which is currently the fifth-largest in baseball. Indications since have been that the Braves won’t pursue the non-Swanson shortstops and that they may not have much of an appetite for committing any salary that “takes up too high a percentage of their payroll” (as reported by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal in November).

As things stand, the Braves are just over $3MM shy of the $233MM luxury threshold, as projected by Roster Resource. Signing Swanson would likely take them in the range of $20MM over the tax, and any additional acquisitions (or a potential Max Fried extension) could push them well into the second tier and possibly to the precipice of the third tier. Crossing into that third tier would drop their pick in next year’s draft by 10 places. Braves brass has voiced a willingness to cross at least into that first luxury tier, but the fact that Atlanta acquired cash to help cover Joe Jimenez’s salary in their recent trade with the Tigers doesn’t necessarily portray a team that will cross that threshold with little concern.

Until he signs elsewhere, Swanson still has a chance to remain with his hometown Braves. However, a months-long lack of negotiations, a standing offer that’s likely well shy of his eventual price tag, and a market of at least two other motivated suitors casts plenty of doubt on whether Atlanta is the likeliest landing place for Swanson.

Mets Sign David Robertson

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DECEMBER 9: New York has officially announced they’ve signed Robertson to a one-year contract.

DECEMBER 8: The Mets and reliever David Robertson are in agreement on a one-year, $10MM deal. There are no options or incentives. Robertson, who is self-represented, has already passed his physical.

Robertson, 38 in April, has a lengthy track record of success as a major league reliever. In nine straight seasons from 2010 to 2018, he threw at least 60 innings while never posting an ERA higher than 3.82. Though his control wasn’t always pinpoint perfect, he never had a strikeout rate lower than 26% in any of those seasons. For reference, this year’s league average for relief pitchers was 23.6%.

Unfortunately, that long stretch of reliability came to an abrupt halt in 2019. After signing a two-year, $23MM deal with the Phillies, he only made seven appearances due to injuries, eventually culminating in Tommy John surgery. That kept him out of action for most of that year and all of 2020. He returned to the mound in 2021, starting with that summer’s Olympics and then joining the Rays for 12 appearances after.

That was enough for the Cubs to take a flier on Robertson for 2022, when he truly got back into form. He tossed 40 1/3 innings for the Cubs with a 2.23 ERA and 30.9% strikeout rate. The walks were on the high side at 11.5%, but they didn’t stop him from being tremendously effective, racking up 14 saves in that time. He was flipped to the Phillies prior to the trade deadline and continued in similar fashion. He threw another 23 1/3 innings for the Phils with a 2.70 ERA and 30.3% strikeout rate. The walks became more of an issue, jumping to a 16.2% rate after the deal, but he still added another six saves and three holds. He was able to add another 7 2/3 innings in the postseason despite straining his calf while celebrating a Bryce Harper home run, posting a 1.17 ERA in that time even though he walked 15.2% of batters faced.

Despite his age and control issues, his season was effective enough that MLBTR predicted he would land a two-year, $16MM deal, or $8MM per season. Instead, Robertson has opted for a slightly higher salary but with the chance to return to free agency again a year from now.

The fact that the Mets were the one to pay him is not a huge surprise. For one thing, they have almost an entire bullpen to rebuild this winter. Edwin Díaz, Adam Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez and Trevor May all reached free agency at the end of the 2022 season, leaving the club with plenty of holes to fill. They have since re-signed Díaz, traded for Brooks Raley and made a few smaller moves, with Robertson now added into the mix as well.

Secondly, it’s also not surprising to see the Mets putting money down on a player they like because they’ve been doing a lot of that. The news of this deal and Brandon Nimmo’s re-signing dropped in quick succession, adding to the club’s already huge financial outlay for 2023. Roster Resource currently pegs their payroll for next season at $322MM with a competitive balance tax figure of $335MM. That’s more than $40MM beyond the fourth and highest tier of luxury tax penalization, which is $293MM.

The CBT has escalating penalties for going over the line in successive seasons and the Mets also paid the tax in 2022, making them second-time payors for 2023. They will pay a 30% tax on spending over the first tier, 42% over the second, 75% over the third and 90% over the fourth. That means that they are currently slated to pay a tax of about $67MM, on top of that $322MM payroll. It’s also possible that they’re not done, as Andy Martino of SNY reports that they could still sign Kodai Senga.

For now, the gas pedal is clearly down to the floor for the Mets, as they have spent aggressively in trying to stay competitive for next year. They won 101 games in 2022 but had a huge free agent class that consisted of Nimmo, Díaz, Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker, Chris Bassitt and the aforementioned batch of relievers. deGrom and Walker have signed elsewhere, but the Mets signed Justin Verlander and José Quintana to replace them, in addition to retaining Díaz and Nimmo, with Robertson now added into the mix as well. He will likely be in line for setup duty with Díaz in the closer role, but it’s possible that the Mets still have plenty of more surprises up their sleeves to be revealed between now and Opening Day.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that Robertson and the Mets were connecting on a one-year, $10MM deal. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported that Robertson had already passed his physical and the lack of options or incentives.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rangers Sign Andrew Heaney To Two-Year Deal

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Dec. 9: The Rangers have officially announced the signing. Levi Weaver of The Athletic provides some specifics on the contract. Heaney will make $12MM plus incentives in 2023 followed by $13MM plus incentives in 2024. If he opts out after the first year, he’ll collect a $500K payout.

Dec. 6, 7:42pm: Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports that Heaney will earn $12.5MM in guaranteed money in 2023, with the ability to earn up to $5MM more in performance bonuses.

4:40pm: The Rangers have an agreement with free agent pitcher Andrew Heaney, pending a physical. It will be a two-year, $25MM deal with incentives that could take it up to $37MM. Heaney will be able to opt out of the deal after the first season. Heaney is represented by Icon Sports Management.

Heaney, 32 in June, has long been an enticing hurler due to his incredible ability to rack up strikeouts. Since the start of the 2016 season, his 27.2% strikeout rate is well above average and ranks 21st among all pitchers in the majors in that stretch, minimum 500 innings pitched.

However, despite banking all those Ks, there have also been concerns around Heaney. One is his tendency to get tattooed by the long ball too often. For his career, 16.1% of his fly balls have left the yard, which is certainly on the high side. League wide averages fluctuate in this department as the ball seems to be changing from year to year, but the average in 2022 was 11.4%. Even in the “juiced ball” season of 2019, the rate only got as high as 15.3%, still below Heaney’s career rate. Those home runs are a big reason why he has a career ERA of 4.56 despite all those punchouts. Another knock on Heaney is health, as he’s only once reached 130 innings in a single season. That’s been due to a number of factors, including Tommy John surgery in 2016 and various bouts of elbow inflammation since then.

For 2022, Heaney seemed to take a step forward performance wise, but without completely eliminating those concerning tendencies. The Dodgers signed him to a one-year, $8.5MM deal and then changed his pitch repertoire. His curveball and sinker were eliminated in favor of a new slider to pair with his four-seamer and the occasional changeup. The results were excellent as Heaney struck out an incredible 35.5% of batters faced, well beyond his own track record and second to only Spencer Strider among pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched on the year.

However, injuries were once again a problem, with Heaney making multiple trips to the IL due to shoulder issues throughout the year. In the end, he made 14 starts and two relief appearances, getting to 72 2/3 innings pitched for the whole season, with three more added in the playoffs. The long ball was still present as well, as he allowed 14 homers in that sample, leading to a HR/FB rate of 17.9%. Despite the massive strikeout rate, those home runs bumped his ERA up to 3.10.

Even with those concerns, MLBTR predicted that Heaney would get enough interest to land a three-year, $42MM deal, or $14MM per season. It’s possible that Heaney got a wide variety of creative contracts to address his high upside potential but also the big question marks. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that Heaney had nine different offers before agreeing to this Rangers deal, and recent reporting indicated he had three-year offers and was trying to get a fourth. The exact details of those other offers aren’t known, but Heaney has taken a deal with a solid $25MM guarantee, $12.5MM per year, but the possibility to earn much more.

For one thing, the opt-out after 2023 will give him the chance to return to the open market a year from now. If Heaney finally stays healthy and produces the elite results he’s clearly capable of, he could opt out and land himself a much larger contract at that point. There’s also the incentives in the deal, with the specifics not yet known, but that’s another avenue for Heaney to end up doing quite well for himself on the deal.

For the Rangers, this is the latest in a series of moves that has completely remade their rotation. Just about a month ago, their on-paper starting group consisted of Jon Gray and a bunch question marks. Since then, they’ve re-signed Martín Pérez, acquired Jake Odorizzi from Atlanta, signed arguably the best pitcher on the planet in Jacob deGrom and have now added Heaney into the mix. In a way, the Heaney deal is an echo of the deGrom deal, as both pitchers have excellent stuff when healthy but have injury concerns. deGrom is in another league compared to Heaney, but they are similar high-risk upside plays for the Rangers.

The collective moves also are something of a mirror to what the club did a year ago. Tired of rebuilding and looking for a return to contention, the Rangers spent aggressively to land two of the top middle infielders in available in Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Those two players didn’t immediately turn around the fortunes of the franchise, as the Rangers went 68-94 in 2022. That was largely due to a poor rotation that, as mentioned, they have completely remade in the past month. The club’s starters posted a collective 4.63 ERA that was 25th among the 30 teams in baseball. But with deGrom, Heaney and Odorizzi in the fold, their odds of moving up the list in that category are quite strong.

Financially, this deal pushes the club’s payroll up to $182MM and their competitive balance tax figure up to $204MM, per Roster Resource. The club seems poised to blow well past their previous spending levels, as their highest Opening Day payroll in the past was $165MM back in 2017, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. It’s unclear how much more spending the club plans to do, but they still have almost $30MM of wiggle room before reaching the $233MM luxury tax threshold for 2023.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News first reported the sides were nearing a deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that an agreement was in place, pending a physical. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported the two-year structure with an opt-out. Joel Sherman of the New York Post first had the $25MM guarantee plus incentives. Alden González of ESPN first added the $37MM post-incentives figure.

Mets Sign José Quintana To Two-Year Deal

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December 9: The Mets have officially announced the signing.

December 7: The Mets and left-hander José Quintana are in agreement on a two-year, $26MM contract, pending a physical. He will make even salaries of $13MM in each season.

Quintana, 34 in January, was a remarkably steady and consistent member of the White Sox rotation in his first five seasons. He debuted in 2012 with 22 starts, three relief appearances and a 3.76 ERA. For the next four seasons, he made at least 32 starts in each campaign while keeping his ERA between 3.51 and 3.20.

Unfortunately, he hit a few rough patches after that, as his ERA ticked up over 4.00 for three straight campaigns from 2017 to 2019, with Quintana getting traded across town to the Cubs in that time. A thumb injury in 2020 limited him to just 10 innings pitched in the shortened campaign. He signed with the Angels for 2021 but was shelled in nine starts to begin the year and got moved to the bullpen.

Jose Quintana | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY SportsFor 2022, the rebuilding Pirates took a flier on Quintana with a one-year, $2MM deal. The hope was that he would return to form, provide some veteran stability for their young rotation and perhaps turn himself into a trade chip by the deadline. That plan could hardly have gone much better, as the southpaw made 20 starts for the Bucs, posting a 3.50 ERA. His 20.6% strikeout rate was a bit below average, but he paired that with strong walk and ground ball rates of 7.2% and 45%, respectively. He and Chris Stratton were dealt to the Cardinals at the deadline and Quintana continued his strong campaign in St. Louis. He made another 12 starts with a 2.01 ERA, finishing the year with a 2.93 mark across 32 starts and 165 2/3 innings.

Quintana was then able to return to free agency in a much stronger position than his previous trips. In addition to his strong platform season, his midseason trade made him ineligible for a qualifying offer and his age made it unlikely that he would be able to pursue a lengthy contract. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $24MM deal, with Quintana eventually nudging just barely beyond that.

For the Mets, they were facing a great deal of turnover on their pitching staff, with Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker reaching free agency, along with several relievers. deGrom has since joined the Rangers and Walker the Phillies. The Mets effectively replaced deGrom by signing Verlander and have now added Quintana to take a role in the middle or back of the rotation. That gives the Mets a front four of Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and Quintana. They have some internal options to take the fifth spot, such as David Peterson and Tylor Megill, but it’s also possible that they continue to pursue external additions.

This signing brings the club’s payroll to $290MM for next year, according to Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax figure of $301MM. It’s unclear exactly how much they plan on spending by the time the dust has settled, but owner Steve Cohen has previously floated $300MM as a ballpark figure, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. In terms of the luxury tax, they are already beyond the fourth and highest tier of penalization, which will be $293MM next year. As a second-time payor, they are subject to escalating penalties, meaning they will pay a 30% tax on the spending between $233-253MM, 42% between $253-273MM, 75% between $273-293MM and 90% above the top tier.

Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic first reported that Quintana would join the Mets at $26MM over two years. Joel Sherman of The New York Post first added that it would break down into even salaries of $13MM in each year.

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