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Yankees To Re-Sign Anthony Rizzo To Multi-Year Deal

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The Yankees and Anthony Rizzo are in agreement to reunite on a two-year deal with a $40MM guarantee. That comes in the form of a $17MM salary in 2023 and 2024, followed by a $17MM club option for 2025 with a $6MM buyout.

Rizzo, 33, spent many years with the Cubs, a key part of the club’s core that broke the 108-year curse by winning the 2016 World Series. From 2014 to 2019, he was remarkably consistent and productive, hitting between 27 and 32 home runs in each of those six years. His wRC+ was always between 126 and 155, indicating he was between 26% and 55% above league average at the plate. His wins above replacement tally, according to FanGraphs, was between 3.2 and 5.3 in each of those campaigns.

The next two seasons saw Rizzo slide from those great heights somewhat, though he was still a strong performer. In the shortened 2020 campaign, he hit .222/.342/.414 for a wRC+ of 103. The next year, which included a midseason deal to the Yankees, came in at .248/.344/.440 and a wRC+ of 113.

Despite the slight downturn, he was still above-average at the plate and is generally considered a solid defender at first base. He was ineligible for a qualifying offer because of the midseason trade. He and the Yankees agreed to a deal that would keep him in the Bronx, with Rizzo earning $32MM over two years, though he could opt out of the final year and its $16MM salary.

Despite dealing with various ailments throughout 2022, he ended up having a nice bounceback campaign. His 32 home runs matched a career high and his .224/.338/.480 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 132. Based on that strong showing, he triggered his opt-out and returned to free agency in search of a larger deal. It’s also been speculated that the upcoming ban on aggressive defensive shifts will help him, given that his left-handed bat and low speed make him particularly vulnerable to those. The Yankees extended a $19.65MM qualifying offer to him, which he could have accepted and locked in a slight raise over his expected salary. But it seemed he had other suitors, with the Astros being one club known to have interest in him.

3pm Central time today was the deadline for players to accept or reject qualifying offers, with Rizzo among the 12 who declined, though reports emerged shortly thereafter that he and the Yankees agreed to a longer pact. Rizzo will return to his post at first base and earn $17MM per year, so very close to the QO, but he’ll actually have an AAV slightly ahead of it thanks to the buyout. His $40MM guarantee over two years comes out just barely ahead of the two years and $36MM projected by MLBTR.

By getting Rizzo to put pen to paper, the Yanks have prevented a key bat from departing in free agency. Of course, Rizzo is only the second most important player in this camp, as all eyes are squarely focused on Aaron Judge and whether the Yanks can convince him to stay. With Rizzo’s contract on the books, the club’s 2023 payroll is now around $207MM in the estimation of Roster Resource. Last year, they opened the season at $246MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, leaving them about $40MM in space before they’re caught up to that difference. Of course, if they are willing to increase their spending beyond last year’s levels, they should have even more to work with.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that Rizzo and the Yanks were reuniting on a multi-year deal. Andy Martino of SNY first relayed the two-year plus a club option framework. Jack Curry of YES Network was first on the dollars.

Image courtesy USA Today Sports.

12 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 14 players who received qualifying offers have rejected those one-year, $19.65MM contracts in favor of testing the open market, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Martin Perez and Joc Pederson are the only two who accepted a QO. Each of Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Anderson have rejected the deal. Anderson is already in agreement on a three-year contract with the Angels.

None of the news is all that surprising, aside from perhaps Anderson’s early multi-year strike with the Halos. Perez and Pederson were two of the three most likely candidates to take the QO. That the Giants tagged Pederson at all was a move few saw coming, and most believed he’d indeed take the QO once it was put forth.

None of Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson, deGrom, Rodon, Nimmo, Bassitt or Contreras likely gave much thought to the possibility. Eovaldi and Rizzo were more borderline candidates, but the latter quickly returns to the Yankees on a multi-year deal that’ll pay him around the QO rate over two guaranteed seasons. Eovaldi has yet to sign, but he’ll presumably continue to search for a longer-term contract after taking advantage of the five days to scour the market.

The clubs that saw a free agent decline a qualifying offer now stand to receive draft compensation if that player signs elsewhere. The value of the compensatory pick depends on a team’s status as a revenue sharing recipient and/or whether they paid the luxury tax in 2022. That’s also true of the draft choices and potentially international signing bonus space a team would have to forfeit to sign a qualified free agent from another team.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down the forfeiture each team would have to surrender to sign a qualified free agent earlier this month. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk looked at the compensation each club would receive if one of these players signed elsewhere.

Joc Pederson Accepts Qualifying Offer

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Outfielder Joc Pederson has accepted the $19.65MM qualifying offer he received from the Giants, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

Pederson was drafted by the Dodgers and spent seven seasons there, largely serving as a productive member of the lineup. He had an ill-timed down year in 2020, just as he was about to reach free agency. That led to him settling for a one-year, $7MM deal to join the Cubs for 2021. He bounced back slightly that year but was still below average at the plate overall, leading to another one-year deal for 2022, this time getting $6MM from the Giants.

He was able to get back on track in a huge way this year, having the best offensive season of his career. His .274/.353/.521 slash line included career highs in both batting average and on-base percentage. The resulting wRC+ of 144 means he was 44% above league average, and that was 16 points beyond anything he’d done previously in his career.

Despite that huge showing with the bat, it was somewhat surprising to see him extended the QO, given his recent struggles and poor defensive metrics. Nonetheless, the Giants felt good enough about his output to make a $19.65MM bet that he could have another strong performance in 2023. They would have received draft pick compensation if Pederson had declined the offer and signed elsewhere, but that’s a moot point now as he’ll return to the Giants next year, earning a salary almost three times as high as his previous best.

For the Giants, it’s possible that this is the first of many moves for them, with rumors swirling that they are going to be very active this winter. For now, Pederson will join an outfield/designated hitter mix that includes Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade Jr., Luis Gonzalez and Austin Slater, though the club tends to favor players with defensive versatility and have several infielders that could move to the grass.

With Pederson’s $19.65MM added to the ledger, the 2023 payroll is now sitting at $134MM, in the estimation of Roster Resource. They began last year with an Opening Day mark of $155MM and have been above $200MM in the recent past, according to figures from Cot’s Baseball Contracts. If they are willing to get back up to those levels, they should have plenty to work with. Rumors have connected them to the top free agent shortstops as well as Bay Area native Aaron Judge, making for a very interesting offseason ahead. But for now, they’ve brought back a very productive hitter for another season in black and orange.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Willson Contreras To Decline Qualifying Offer

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Catcher Willson Contreras will reject the Cubs’ qualifying offer and instead test the open market this winter, ESPN’s Jesse Rogers tweets. The Cubs, who surprisingly did not trade Contreras at the deadline — a deal sending him to Houston was reportedly nixed by Astros ownership — made the easy call to instead make the one-year, $19.65MM qualifying offer to their longtime catcher. Contreras always appeared overwhelmingly likely to decline the offer. He’ll now seek a multi-year deal in free agency.

The 30-year-old Contreras will head into free agency on the heels of his fourth career season of 20-plus homers and 20-plus doubles. The three-time All-Star and 2016 World Series champion slashed .243/.346/.466 in what seems likely to be his final season as a member of the Cubs. Chicago had multiple opportunities to extend Contreras over the years, with the player himself publicly expressing his desire to stay along the way. It never appeared that the team made a strong effort to sign Contreras for the long haul, however, and with veteran Yan Gomes signed through 2023, the Cubs have at least one alternative option (though there’s a good chance they add another via free agency or trade).

Contreras’ defense has become something of a talking point going back to the trade deadline, though some of that talk is perhaps overblown. It’s generally rare for starting catchers to change hands at the deadline, as learning an entirely new staff on the fly and in the middle of a postseason push is a difficult task for any backstop. That concern, of course, won’t exist with a free-agent signing, as Contreras will have an entire offseason and Spring Training to familiarize himself with a new team’s staff.

In terms of actual defensive metrics, Contreras boasts a 30% caught-stealing rate that’s comfortably above league average and is regarded as having one of the best throwing arms of any catcher in the game. Statcast credits him for the 11th-best poptime of any catcher in baseball and also feels that his framing has been average or slightly above over the past three seasons. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him at -1 in 2022 but credited him with a +8 mark just one year prior. It’s fair to say that Contreras isn’t an elite defensive backstop, and over the course of a multi-year deal that stretches into his mid-30s, he may spend additional time at DH or another position, such as first base. None of that means he’s a defensive liability in the short term, however.

Because Contreras rejected a QO, any team that signs him will have to forfeit at least one draft pick. Luxury-paying clubs will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest selections in next year’s draft and will see their international bonus pool reduced by $1MM. Teams that were neither luxury tax payors nor revenue-sharing recipients will surrender their second-highest pick and see their international pool reduced by $500K. Revenue-sharing recipients would “only” have to surrender their third-highest pick. The Cubs, as a team that neither paid the luxury tax nor received revenue sharing, would receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 in next year’s draft (typically in the No. 75 overall range).

Mariners Discussing Jesse Winker In Trade Talks

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The Mariners are in active trade discussions as today’s 5pm CT deadline to set rosters prior to next month’s Rule 5 Draft looms, and they’re showing a willingness to move left fielder/designated hitter Jesse Winker, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). As has been expected for some time now, the M’s have also discussed potential trades involving fifth starter candidates Chris Flexen and Marco Gonzales, Morosi further adds, though the team has not yet engaged in a scenario where Winker and one of those pitchers would be moved in the same package.

Moving on from Winker would be selling low on a player whom the Mariners acquired last offseason, hoping at the time that Winker could be a key middle-of-the-lineup fixture. In the two seasons prior to that trade, Winker was one of the game’s three best hitters against right-handed pitching, trailing only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper in terms of wRC+. He posted a Herculean .321/.417/.619 batting line in 509 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, and while his production against fellow lefties was nowhere near that level, he still walked at a 12% clip against them, resulting in a .314 OBP. His .199 average and .338 slugging against lefties were dismal, but at the very least, Winker could get on base at a near-average clip in when in disadvantageous platoon matchups.

What followed in 2022, however, was the worst season of Winker’s career by nearly any measure. He did walk at a career-best 15.4% clip as a Mariner, but the 29-year-old’s .219/.344/.344 batting line was generally underwhelming — especially considering he was acquired in hopes of providing some left-handed power to the lineup. Winker’s .125 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) was the lowest mark of his career. And, while he’s never been considered a plus defender in the outfield, Winker’s defensive ratings across the board in 2022 were career-worsts (-16 Defensive Runs Saved, -7.2 Ultimate Zone Rating, -10 Outs Above Average).

Poor 2022 season notwithstanding, Winker has a strong track record at the plate and could be viewed by other clubs as a decent candidate to rebound. In his five seasons with the Reds, dating back to his 2017 debut, Winker turned in a collective .288/.385/.504 batting line — about 32% better than the average hitter after weighting for his home park and league.

Winker is also rather affordable. He’s entering what would have been his final arbitration season but is already signed for $8.25MM, having agreed to a two-year, $14.5MM contract with the Mariners just last season. If he’s able to approach anything close to his Reds form in 2023, that’ll be an eminently reasonable price to pay.

It bears mentioning that there could be other factors at play as the Mariners field interest in Winker. In an October appearance on 710 AM Seattle Sports’ Brock and Salk Show, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times laid out, in detail, the manner in which Winker fell out of favor within the Mariners clubhouse over the course of the season. (Mike Axisa of CBS Sports transcribed the meat of Divish’s segment, for those interested in the full scope of the comments.) Add in the fact that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has already spoken publicly about his desire to add at least one, if not two outfielders to his team this winter, and there’s plenty of reason to believe the Mariners’ outfield mix will look different in 2023 (though AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez is an obvious lock to return).

Of course, the trade that brought Winker to Seattle wasn’t all bad — far from it. In order to acquire Winker, Seattle gave up pitching prospect Brandon Williamson, outfielder Jake Fraley and righty Justin Dunn and took on a notable portion of a contract the Reds were seeking to escape … that of Eugenio Suarez. It’s a move the Mariners may not have made had they believed Suarez was beyond hope after a rough 2020-21 showing in Cincinnati, but he bounced back to an even greater extent than most optimists could’ve forecast.

After hitting .199 /.293/.440 with the Reds in 2020-21, Suarez logged a resurgent .236/.332/.459 batting line with 31 home runs, 24 doubles, a pair of triples and roughly average defense at the hot corner. Both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs pegged his 2022 season around four wins above replacement, and Suarez remains signed for another two years and $24MM (plus a club option for the 2025 campaign).

Martín Pérez Accepts Qualifying Offer

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Left-hander Martín Pérez has accepted the $19.65MM qualifying offer that was extended to him by the Rangers, his agent Gustavo Marcano of Octagon confirmed to Efraín Zavarce of IVC Networks. Pérez was one of 14 players to receive a QO, with the deadline for a decision being 3pm Central today.

Pérez, 32, was once a highly-touted prospect with Texas, considered one of the top 100 youngsters in the sport by Baseball America five years running from 2009 to 2013. It was the last of those five years that he seemingly arrived at the major league level, posting a 3.62 ERA over 20 starts and 124 1/3 innings.

However, since then, he struggled to live up to his potential, continuing to get opportunities but serving as more of a back-end innings-eater type. In the eight seasons from 2014 to 2021, his ERA was never lower than 4.38, a stretch that included some modest free agent contracts, all for just a single year. For 2019, he signed with the Twins for $4MM, followed by joining the Red Sox for $6MM in 2020 and re-signing with Boston for $4.5MM in 2021.

That pattern followed into 2022, with Pérez returning to the Rangers on a one-year, $4MM deal. Since the club was handing out mega deals to the likes of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, the Pérez move was largely left in the shadows. However, he emerged into the spotlight by having the best season of his career at the age of 31. He made 32 starts and tossed 196 1/3 innings while posting a 2.89 ERA.

His 20.6% strikeout rate was a career high but only by a hair, and it was still below league average. He mostly excelled by keeping the ball on the ground and in the park. His 51.4% ground ball rate was about eight points better than last year and his highest since 2016. His 6.5% HR/FB rate was almost 1o points better than last year and the best of his career in a full season’s work.

Advanced metrics are somewhat skeptical that 2.89 ERA was earned or is sustainable, since they all pegged him to be a bit worse. However, his 3.27 FIP, 3.59 xERA and 4.08 SIERA are still solid numbers and a great fit for a Rangers rotation that has lacked stability for quite some time.

As the 2022 season was winding down, reports emerged that there was mutual interest in a reunion between Pérez and the Rangers. They were apparently discussing multi-year deals recently, presumably with lower annual salaries, but couldn’t get anything done prior to last week’s QO offer deadline. The club decided he was worth this year’s $19.65MM QO price tag and extended it last week. That would have entitled them to draft pick compensation if the southpaw had signed elsewhere, but that’s a moot point now that he’s returned. It’s still possible a multi-year arrangement could be worked out, with that new deal replacing the QO. Such a scenario played out three years ago when Jose Abreu accepted a $17.8MM QO but then subsequently agreed to a three-year $50MM extension. But for now, Pérez has guaranteed himself a nice payday that’s almost five times what he made in 2021.

With Pérez now officially back for 2023, the Rangers’ rotation looks stronger than it did just a few days ago, as the club also acquired Jake Odorizzi in a trade with Atlanta last week. Those two should be slotted next to Jon Gray for next year. Dane Dunning could be a candidate for the back end if he recovers from hip surgery in time for the start of the season. That gives them a decent group but one that is lacking in front-of-the-rotation potential. The club seems to be aware of that, however, as general manager Chris Young is considering a run at some of the top free agent starting pitchers in order to add an ace into the mix.

Whether they can do that will likely depend upon the payroll, with Pérez now adding $19.65MM to the ledger. That puts them around $141MM in spending for next year, in the estimation of Roster Resource. That basically puts them even with last year’s Opening Day figure, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, though Young has already indicated payroll will go up and they have been as high as $165MM in the past. If the rotation can move from a weakness to a strength next year, it could help the club see better results than their 68-94 record in 2022.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Michael Harris II Wins National League Rookie Of The Year Award

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Braves center fielder Michael Harris II has won the National League Rookie of the Year award, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. He was followed by teammate Spencer Strider and Cardinals infielder Brendan Donovan in second and third place, respectively.

This has long been viewed as a two-horse race, with the pair of Atlanta players separating themselves from the pack. Harris, a third-round pick in 2019, emerged as one of the game’s more interesting prospects with a breakout 2021 showing in High-A. He began this year in Double-A but quickly proved too advanced for the level, tearing apart opposing pitchers through 43 games. The Braves made the bold decision to skip him over Triple-A entirely, installing him as the everyday center fielder upon calling him to the big leagues in late May.

Harris stepped in excellently for the defending World Series winners. The left-handed hitter posted  a .297/.339/.514 line through his first 441 big league plate appearances. He didn’t draw many walks, but Harris hit nearly .300 while connecting on 19 home runs and swiping 20 bases. He also played excellent center field defense, with Defensive Runs Saved pegging him as eight runs above average with the glove. Statcast estimated he was six runs above par, and the 21-year-old now looks like one of the most promising two-way position players in the game.

Strider, meanwhile, looks like one of the sport’s top young arms. A fourth-round draftee in 2020, he immediately outperformed that fairly modest selection. The right-hander earned a brief big league audition late last season and began this year in the MLB bullpen. By mid-May, he’d been moved to the rotation, and his excellent fastball-slider combination continued to befuddle big league hitters. The 24-year-old combined for 131 2/3 innings of 2.67 ERA ball between the bullpen and the starting staff, striking out an incredible 38.3% of opponents along the way.

A top-two finish in Rookie of the Year balloting takes on significance beyond its mere prestige value now, thanks to provisions in the new collective bargaining agreement. The CBA contained measures designed to counteract service time manipulation through the so-called “prospect promotion incentive.” Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year.

Harris meets all three criteria and will thus earn a full service year, although he inked an eight-year contract extension midseason that negates any chance he’ll ever proceed through arbitration and pushed back his path to free agency. The full service year will have a small move in Harris’ eventual push for 10 years in the majors and its associated pension and possible no-trade benefits. Strider earned a full service year by playing 172-plus days on the MLB roster regardless, although he also later signed an extension.

The second element of the PPI won’t come into play in the National League. A player who meets the aforementioned prospect criteria, entered the year with less than 60 days of service and spent enough time on the MLB roster to earn a full service year independent of the awards finish would net their team a bonus draft choice with a top-two finish. Harris qualified for the prospect criteria but was not on the MLB roster long enough for a full service year without the award bonus. Strider did accrue the service time element but did not appear on a preseason Top 100 at any of MLB Pipeline, BA or ESPN. Unlike the Mariners, who received an extra selection based on Julio Rodríguez’s AL ROY win, the Braves will not accrue a bonus pick.

Harris picked up 22 of 30 first-place nods, with Strider collecting the other eight votes. Harris and Strider were 1-2 in some order on 29 of 30 ballots, with Reds closer Alexis Díaz earning the other second-place vote. Donovan earned a third-place finish with a .281/.394/.379 showing over 468 plate appearances in a utility capacity for St. Louis; he grabbed 22 third-place votes. Arizona outfielder Jake McCarthy, Cincinnati starter Nick Lodolo and Pittsburgh shortstop Oneil Cruz joined Díaz in picking up stray support.

Full vote breakdown available here.

Adley Rutschman Earns Full Service Year With Rookie Of The Year Runner-Up

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Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman finished runner-up in this year’s American League Rookie of the Year balloting. While the honor went to Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez, the runner-up placement is a key development for Rutschman.

In order to disincentivize service time manipulation, the league and Players Association agreed to the so-called “prospect promotion incentive” in the most recent collective bargaining agreement. Any player with less than 60 days of MLB service coming into the season who placed on at least two preseason Top 100 prospect lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline now receives a full year of service time if they finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year balloting. Rutschman meets that qualification, meaning he’ll earn a full year of service for the 2022 campaign. That moves his path to arbitration and free agency up a year, as he’ll now qualify for arbitration after the 2024 season and is on track to reach free agency after the 2027 campaign.

Rutschman coming up short of the hardware was more a matter of timing than any possible indictment of his performance. The first overall pick in the 2019 draft, the switch-hitting backstop was banged up in Spring Training and eventually started the year in the minors. He played 20 minor league games before getting his first big league call in late May, a time when Rodríguez had already cemented himself among the AL favorites.

As soon as he got to the big league level, Rutschman emerged as Baltimore’s top position player. He hit .254/.362/.445 with 13 home runs across 470 plate appearances. Among 29 catchers with at least 300 plate appearances, Rutschman trailed only Toronto’s Alejandro Kirk in on-base percentage and finished eighth in slugging. The former Oregon State star also threw out 11 of 36 attempted base-stealers, rated as 18 runs above average with the glove by measure of Defensive Runs Saved and immediately stepped in to lead a generally young pitching staff.

Rutschman is arguably already one of the sport’s top three catchers, and his arrival helped kick off an incredible midseason turnaround for the O’s. 16-24 at the time of his promotion, Baltimore went 67-55 after his call-up and shocked much of the baseball world by flirting with Wild Card contention into September. They didn’t make the postseason, but they were far better than most expected and have positioned themselves for a more active offseason than they’ve had since starting their rebuild. Rutschman isn’t responsible for the Orioles turnaround alone, but he’s no doubt the biggest part of what’s an increasingly promising team.

Unlike the Mariners, the Orioles will not receive a bonus draft pick for Rutschman’s finish. Seattle earns an extra selection because Rodríguez, who also met the criteria as a consensus top prospect preseason, would have qualified for a full year of service independent of the award finish based on the team carrying him on the MLB roster for at least 172 days. Rutschman was on the roster for 138 days and would not have earned a full service year in 2022 if not for his top-two finish.

Julio Rodriguez Wins American League Rookie Of The Year Award

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Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez has won the Rookie of the Year award in the American League for 2022, according to an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman finished second in the voting, while Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan checked in third.

This year’s rookie class in the Junior Circuit was remarkable, headlined by Rodríguez and Rutschman. The pair of top prospects both hit the ground running against MLB pitching. Seattle carried Rodríguez on the roster as their Opening Day center fielder, looking to build off their surprising 90-win campaign in 2021. The young outfielder got off to a tough start, thanks in part to a number of questionable strike calls in the early going, but he eventually emerged as the best position player on a good Seattle club.

Over 560 plate appearances, Rodríguez posted a .284/.345/.509 line. He connected on 28 home runs and swiped 25 bases in 32 attempts, one of just four players (Kyle Tucker, Adolis García and Marcus Semien being the others) to reach 25 longballs and steals apiece. Rodríguez was particularly electric in the second half, putting up a .303/.361/.576 line coming out of the All-Star Break to help Seattle cruise to its first postseason appearance in more than two decades.

Rodríguez also impressed on the other side of the ball, starting 130 games and playing 1126 2/3 innings in center field. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast credited him with above-average defense, no small feat for a player whom some prospect evaluators suggested might be a better fit for right field. The 21-year-old looks to have put any questions about his defensive home to bed for the time being.

While Rodríguez is surely thrilled to secure Rookie of the Year honors on its own merits, the selection has a tangible effect on the team as well. The new collective bargaining agreement contained measures designed to counteract service time manipulation through the so-called “prospect promotion incentive.” Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year. That’s a moot point for Rodríguez, who’d have qualified for a full service year after tallying 172-plus days on the MLB roster regardless. He also signed a massive contract extension midseason that overwrites his path to arbitration and free agency.

The second portion of the PPI does come into effect, though. A team that promotes a player for a full service year who meets the aforementioned prospect criteria and entered the year with less than 60 days of MLB service who subsequently finishes top two in ROY balloting (or top three in Cy Young or MVP voting during their pre-arbitration seasons) earns a bonus draft pick after the first round. Seattle carried Rodríguez on the roster all year, so they’ll collect an extra pick in the 2023 draft in recognition of his achievements.

Rutschman and Kwan check in as runners-up after very strong years in their own right. Baltimore’s catcher hit .254/.362/.445 with 13 home runs in 470 plate appearances. His second-place finish earns him a full year of service time as well. Kwan doesn’t that get that honor for third place, but he earned a full service year after breaking camp in Cleveland regardless. Rutschman’s former teammate at Oregon State, Kwan hit .298/.373/.400 across 638 plate appearances to help the Guards to a division title.

Rodríguez received 29 of 30 first-place votes, while Rutschman collected the other. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, the lone voter to place Rutschman ahead of Rodríguez, explained his thought process in a well-reasoned Twitter thread. Rodríguez was the only player to be named on all 30 ballots. Rutschman was selected on 28 ballots, while Kwan earned 24 combined second or third-place votes. Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., Astros shortstop Jeremy Peña and Mariners righty George Kirby also picked up some support.

Full vote breakdown found here.

Cubs Release Jason Heyward

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The Cubs announced Monday that outfielder Jason Heyward has officially been granted his unconditional release. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer announced in August that the team would release Heyward in the offseason. Heyward is still owed $22MM next year under the terms of his eight-year, $184MM contract, which covered the 2016-23 seasons.

After a lengthy rebuild where the Cubs finished last in the NL Central for five straight years from 2010 to 2014, they finally turned the corner in 2015. Their 97 victories only resulted in a third place finish in the NL Central and a Wild Card berth, though they were able to defeat the two teams that finished ahead of them in the postseason, getting by the Pirates in the WC game and then the Cardinals in the NLDS. They were then swept by the Mets in the NLCS but it was clear that the rebuild was over and it was time to contend.

As such, the 2015-16 offseason was a busy one for the club. They gave $56MM to Ben Zobrist, $32MM to John Lackey and a few one-year deals, but their big strike was Heyward. He and the club agreed to an eight-year, $184MM deal that afforded him potential opt-outs after 2018 and 2019. Those chances to opt out were especially significant given Heyward’s young age, as he was only going into his age-26 season at the time. It was a huge investment for the Cubs at a crucial time in the history of the franchise, but Heyward had proven himself to be an all-around contributor. His defense was excellent and he had hit at an above-average level, in addition to stealing over 20 bases three time in his career already.

Unfortunately, Heyward’s production slumped immediately. After hitting .293/.359/.439 with the Cardinals in 2015, he produced a batting line of .230/.306/.325 in 2016. While the former line amounted to a wRC+ of 121, or 21% above league average, his first year as a Cub resulted in a wRC+ of just 72, or 28% below league average. In spite of the down year from Heyward, the Cubs went 103-58, winning the Central by 17 1/2 games over the Cardinals. Heyward’s bat was even worse in the playoffs, as he hit just .104/.140/.167. Regardless, the Cubs went on to break their century-old curse by winning the World Series. Despite Heyward’s poor on-field results, he supposedly contributed by rousing the club’s spirits with a rain delay speech in Game 7 against Cleveland, though Cub fans can debate among themselves how much credit he deserves for that.

Heyward continued to provide quality outfield defense for years to come but his bat never really properly recovered. Since joining the Cubs, the only season in which he was above-average at the plate, according to wRC+, was the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. Based on that diminished performance, he never seemed a threat to trigger his opt-outs and thus stayed on with the Cubs. Over the length of the deal, the team eventually entered another rebuilding period and traded away most of their core performers from the curse-breaking years. After the brief 2020 resurgence, Heyward’s offense plummeted yet again over 2021 and 2022. With the club gradually filling out the roster with younger players that they hope to form the next competitive core, they decided it was time to move on. Heyward was on the IL due to a knee injury in August when Hoyer announced that he would be released in the offseason, which has now indeed come to pass.

Heyward will now become a free agent again, available to sign with any team in the league. Despite his poor track record in recent seasons, he could attract interest as a no-risk candidate. The Cubs will be on the hook for the $22MM remaining on his deal, meaning that any signing club would only have to pay him the league minimum, with that amount being subtracted from what the Cubs pay. Despite his extended time a big leaguer, he’s still just 33 years old.

The legacy of Heyward’s time with the Cubs is already divisive among the club’s fans and will surely continue to do so. There’s no disputing the fact that Heyward was never the superstar that the Cubs paid him to be. Some will wonder about what could have been if those resources were committed to a different player. Others will take the “Flags Fly Forever” approach and point to the World Series title as all they need to declare the deal a success. Either way, today’s move is another symbolic move towards a new era of Cubs baseball. With various trades over the years, the recent free agency of Willson Contreras and now Heyward’s release, Kyle Hendricks is left as the last member of that championship core who’s still on the roster.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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