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Jacob deGrom Halts Throwing Due To Forearm Tightness

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Mets ace Jacob deGrom has been dealing with tightness in his right forearm and has been shut down until the discomfort subsides.  Manager Luis Rojas told Deesha Thosar of The New York Daily News (Twitter links), SNY’s Steve Gelbs, and other reporters that an MRI didn’t reveal any structural damage to deGrom’s forearm.

The problem existed prior the All-Star break, as Rojas said deGrom felt tightness while throwing a bullpen session last weekend.  The forearm tightness continued during a side session on Friday, so the Mets opted to halt deGrom’s throwing so further testing could be done.  No mention was made of the injured list, though an IL stint seems inevitable considering that the Mets will surely take every precaution in making sure deGrom is fully healthy.

DeGrom has already hit the IL once this season, missing two weeks due to tightness in his right side.  Despite that missed time and other nagging injuries, the right-hander is in the midst of his most spectacular season yet, with a record-challenging 1.08 ERA over 92 innings and a wealth of league-leading numbers in most major categories (14.3 K/9, 13.27 K/BB rate, 1.1 BB/9, and an absurd 365 ERA+).

Losing deGrom for any amount of time would be a major blow to a Mets team hanging onto first place in the NL East, and the specter of a long-term forearm injury would be nothing short of devastating.  DeGrom has a Tommy John surgery on his record, as he underwent the procedure just a few months after the Mets selected him in the ninth round of the 2010 draft.  The major surgery and a few other lesser arm problems over the years didn’t stop deGrom from becoming arguably the best pitcher of his generation, winning NL Cy Young Awards in 2018-19 and looking to be on track for a third this season.

There is no way to actually replace deGrom in the event of a longer-term absence, and the task will be even more difficult for a Mets team that was already looking to add some rotation help at the trade deadline.  The trio of deGrom, Marcus Stroman, and Taijuan Walker has been excellent, while the back end of the rotation has been a revolving door thanks to injuries and underperformance.  The team is hopeful that Carlos Carrasco will be able to make his Mets debut soon, and rookie Tylor Megill has started his career off with a 3.50 ERA in 18 innings, perhaps earning a longer look if New York can’t find a more experienced option on the trade market.

White Sox, Lance Lynn Agree To Two-Year, $38MM Extension

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The White Sox and Lance Lynn have agreed to a two-year, $38MM extension with a third-year club option that could keep Lynn in Chicago through the 2024 season, the team announced.

The White Sox’ acquisition of Lynn this past winter has thus far proved worthwhile. As you may recall, last December 8th, Chicago sent right-hander Dane Dunning and lefty Avery Weems to the Rangers in exchange for Lynn, who was scheduled to hit free agency after 2021. Dunning has proved himself a capable rotation arm, and on a strict measure of value, it’s possible to give the “trade win” to Texas. Dunning, after all, has produced 1.1 rWAR, and the Rangers maintain control for another five seasons, not to mention six years of control for Weems, should he reach his potential.

In actuality, the deal speaks to the changing needs of franchises moving in different directions. The White Sox are no doubt thrilled with their return, not only because Lynn has produced 3.4 rWAR while making the second All-Star game of his career, but because of the peripheral benefits that came with upgrading from Dunning to Lynn. Lynn’s track record brought a slimmer margin for error, he brings a veteran presence to the clubhouse, familiarity with manager Tony La Russa, and the fiery, chip-on-the-shoulder quality that’s long been a staple of South Side baseball.

Sure enough, the 34-year-old has found a home in Chicago, where he’ll now stay through at least the 2023 season. After making $9.33MM this year in the final season of the three-year, $30MM deal he signed with Texas prior to 2019, Lynn will make $18.5MM in each of the next two seasons.

The White Sox hold an $18MM option for 2024 that includes a $1MM buyout, per MLB.com’s Scott Merkin (via Twitter). There are bonuses, as well, should Lynn finish in the top-3 for Cy Young voting, adds MLB Networks Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Though Lynn has never been a top-3 finisher for the award, he has finished in the top-6 in each of the past two seasons.

Lynn’s 94 mph heater is where its been the past couple of seasons, though he’s dropped its usage from around 50 percent to 43.1 percent. The cutter has picked up the slack, going from 22.2 percent usage last year to 32.2 percent this season. Interestingly, Lynn sticks almost entirely to the fastball, cutter, sinker mix, only rarely turning to a change-up or more traditional curve/slider like he threw in his youth.

The cutter has taken over as a go-to put away pitch for Lynn. Opponents are hitting just .183 with a .295 xSLG against his 88.5 mph cutter. In terms of the bottom line results, however, Lynn has been just about the same guy in Chicago that he was in Texas: he pounds the zone (44.1 Zone%), plays to contact with a below-average 26.5 CSW%, all while coaxing batters to swing the bat (72.7 Z-Swing%, 49.4 Swing% — both marks being above-average), despite just an average ability to get batters to chase outside the zone (30.9 O-Swing%). All in all, he’s posted a 1.99 ERA/3.20 FIP in 16 starts covering 90 2/3 innings.

Securing Lynn keeps another member of Chicago’s impressive core in place. Carlos Rodon is the only member of the rotation not currently signed through next season. The White Sox control Dallas Keuchel and Lucas Giolito through 2023 and Dylan Cease through 2025. No matter what happens with Rodon now, the White Sox should feel secure about their rotation moving into next season.

The White Sox have been wisely proactive about signing their young core to extensions. Yoan Moncada is under contract through 2024, Eloy Jimenez and Aaron Bummer through 2026, and Luis Robert through 2027. Free agent signings Liam Hendriks and Yasmani Grandal also have contracts that run through 2024 and 2023, respectively. Other young talents like Nick Madrigal, Andrew Vaughn, Michael Kopech and Codi Heuer have yet to even begin the arbitration process.

Securing Lynn, however, was arguably the most important item on GM Rick Hahn’s agenda. Even still, the White Sox should have financial flexibility moving forward. Their luxury tax payroll for 2022 projects to be around $145MM, still well below this season’s $170MM mark. They have just $106MM against the tax on the books for 2023. Those numbers will go up with arbitration raises for Giolito, Evan Marshall and Adam Engel, but not so much as to seriously hinder Chicago’s flexibility, should they want to expand their payroll further while still avoiding the tax.

Those raises, however, will be enough to bring their cash payroll in 2022 already beyond the $133MM they have on the books this season. With Lynn’s extension now in place, the White Sox cash payroll for 2022 sits around $127MM before those arbitration raises. Still, given Chicago’s market and the aggressiveness they’ve shown to build this contender, they should still have room to grow.

Cubs Will Reportedly Try Again On Rizzo, Baez Extensions Before Exploring Trades

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The Cubs have already traded Joc Pederson to the Braves and are expected to continue selling veteran players in the two weeks leading up to the deadline, but they’ll first take one last effort at hammering out contract extensions with shortstop Javier Baez and first baseman Anthony Rizzo, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).

Both Rizzo and Baez have been viewed as extension candidates with the Cubs for the past several years, but neither has worked out a deal to remain in Chicago beyond the 2021 campaign. Rizzo is playing out the second of two option seasons that were included on his original  seven-year, $41MM contract with the club.

Chicago unsurprisingly picked up both of those club options, and Rizzo will end up earning a combined $75MM over a nine-year term. The Cubs reportedly offered Rizzo a five-year, $70MM contract extension back in Spring Training — about $60MM less than the Cardinals guaranteed Paul Goldschmidt for the same portion of his career.

As for Baez, he’s playing out his final arbitration year and earning $11.6MM before reaching free agency. The two parties were reported to be progressing in talks on a long-term deal in spring 2020 before the season was shut down.

Neither Rizzo nor Baez is playing at peak levels in 2021, although both have rebounded somewhat from a down year in 2020. Rizzo posted a .222/.342/.412 batting line in 243 plate appearances last year but is up to .247/.342/.429 so far in 2021. His .182 ISO (slugging minus batting average) is his lowest mark since 2012, as is his 9.7 percent walk rate. Rizzo’s production this season is still comfortably above the league average, by measure of wRC+ (111), but it’s a far cry from his 2014-19 levels (.284/.388/.513, 141 wRC+). He’ll  turn 32 next month, however, which surely impacts the team’s comfort level both in terms of contract length and annual value.

For Baez, the 2020 season was nightmarish. He batted just .203/.238/.360 with career-worst walk (3.0) and strikeout (31.9) percentages as his power dipped to its lowest level since 2016. This year, he’s batting .238/.284/.493 with 21 home runs — some of the best power output of his career. However, Baez’s long-troubling strikeout issues have ballooned to new heights in 2021, as he’s fanned in 36.6 percent of his plate appearances. He remains an excellent defender and won’t turn 29 until the offseason, so there are still several years of Baez’s physical prime left.

Both players are somewhat difficult to value from an extension standpoint at the moment. Rizzo hasn’t bounced all the way back from last year’s downturn in production, and any new contract would be buying out his mid-30s. Baez is younger and enjoying a larger bounceback effort, but his glaring swing-and-miss tendencies and bottom-of-the-scale OBP are difficult to overlook.

The Cubs have tried at various points to lock up both players, and it seems it’ll be even more difficult now to hammer out terms in a two-week window leading up to the trade deadline — particularly when the front office is also dedicating so much time to fielding trade interest in other players on the roster. That’s not to say an extension for either player is out of the question, but the timing isn’t exactly working in their favor. The absence of an extension doesn’t make a trade a foregone conclusion, however; either player would be a candidate for a qualifying offer, which would give the Cubs an opportunity to retain them on a high-priced one-year deal or at least gain a compensatory draft pick should they sign elsewhere.

As notable in Heyman’s report on the likelihood of extension talks with Baez and Rizzo is that it appears no such talks are being planned with star third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant. The former NL Rookie of the Year and NL MVP is enjoying a more substantial rebound season than either of his two aforementioned teammates and figures to enter the offseason as one of the top free agents on the open market. He’ll draw interest from a wide number of contenders as they look to bolster their lineup over the next 14 days, and the absence of any last-ditch extension talks would seem to indicate an acknowledgement of that ship having sailed.

Bryant, Craig Kimbrel, Zach Davies, and Andrew Chafin are among the likeliest Cubs to change hands in the coming days, and they’ll surely receive interest in veterans Willson Contreras and Kyle Hendricks as well. Contreras, however, is controlled through 2022 via arbitration. Hendricks is signed affordably through the 2023 campaign with an option for 2024. Given that level of remaining club control, there’s less urgency to make a deal involving either player, though that won’t stop other teams from trying to pry them loose.

Cole Hamels Holds Showcase For Interested Teams

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JULY 16: Twenty teams had representatives in attendance at today’s showcase, Heyman reports (Twitter link). The Angels and Cardinals were among the teams to send personnel, per reports from Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com and Katie Woo of the Athletic.

JULY 13, 3:59 pm: The Red Sox will also be in attendance, reports Rob Bradford of WEEI.

JULY 13, 2:51 pm: The Phillies and Mets will have scouts watching Hamels, according to Heyman (Twitter links).  The Yankees will also be in attendance, The New York Post’s Joel Sherman tweets.  As teams will inevitably be revealed as being part of this showcase, it should be noted (as Sherman does) that the Yankees and many clubs send evaluators to these showcases as a normal order of business.

JULY 9: Free agent left-hander Cole Hamels will hold a showcase in front of teams on July 16, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). The Dodgers are among the teams who will have personnel in attendance, reports Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times (on Twitter).

It has been a protracted stay in free agency for Hamels, who hasn’t signed anywhere since the 2020 season concluded. There was never any indication the veteran southpaw planned to sit out for all of 2021, though, and he was reported to be building up a throwing program last month.

Hamels essentially had a lost 2020 season. Signed by the Braves to a one-year, $18MM deal over the 2019-20 offseason, he dealt with shoulder soreness in Spring Training and then began the shortened season on the injured list with a triceps issue. Hamels returned to make one appearance in mid-September before landing back on the IL with a season-ending shoulder problem.

Before 2020, Hamels was a paragon of durability, tossing at least 130 innings in every season between 2006-19. He was also a model of consistency, never posting an ERA higher than 4.32 and allowing fewer than four earned runs per nine innings in eleven of those fourteen campaigns. He was still effective as recently as 2019, when he tossed 141 2/3 innings of 3.81 ERA ball with solid strikeout and walk rates (23.2% and 7.1%, respectively) with the Cubs. Between his track record and the volume of pitcher injuries around the league in 2021, there figures to be plenty of teams in attendance next week to gauge Hamels’ current form.

Nationals Have Interest In Kris Bryant

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The Nationals are among the teams with interest in Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). There will certainly be plenty of other suitors for the former NL MVP, who might wind up being the top player traded over the next two weeks.

Indeed, the Nats aren’t the only team in the NL East reportedly looking into a Bryant acquisition. The division-leading Mets were linked to the four-time All-Star last night. On the surface, New York looks to be a more obvious deadline buyer than Washington, who enters tonight’s game with a 42-47 record. In fact, Bryant’s current club is actually a game and a half above the Nats in the Wild Card race.

That said, the Nationals haven’t been shy about trying to make a playoff push when the opportunity presents itself under general manager Mike Rizzo. They’re six games back of the Mets (albeit with the Phillies and Braves also ahead of them) in a division where no teams have separated themselves from the pack. Washington has a difficult three-game series against the Padres this weekend, but that’s followed by dates with the Marlins and Orioles next week, which could give them an opportunity to make up some ground in the standings.

If the Nationals do look to add to the big league roster in the coming weeks, third base is an obvious area to upgrade. Washington has gotten below-average production (.280/.333/.369) at the hot corner over the course of the year, where nearly all of the playing time has gone to Starlin Castro. Castro was placed on administrative leave this afternoon as Major League Baseball investigates domestic violence allegations made against him. Jordy Mercer started at third base tonight in Washington’s first game out of the All-Star Break.

Bryant, of course, would be an upgrade over most teams’ third base situations. The 29-year-old has bounced back from a poor 2020 campaign to hit at an excellent .271/.353/.502 level with sixteen home runs over 329 plate appearances. He’s tailed off after a scorching start to the year, but Bryant’s overall body of work is one of the better ones in the sport.

Of the 231 hitters to accrue 200+ plate appearances in 2021, Bryant is tied for 40th with a 132 wRC+. Relative to last season, he’s drawing more walks, striking out less often and making a higher rate of hard contact. Bryant hasn’t regained the MVP-caliber form he showed early in his career, but his All-Star selection in 2021 was certainly deserved.

The general expectation is that Bryant will wind up on the move between now and the July 30 trade deadline. Cubs president Jed Hoyer suggested last week the team would listen to offers for players on their big league roster on the heels of an 11-game losing streak. They traded outfielder Joc Pederson to the Braves — a team with which the Cubs are ostensibly in competition for a Wild Card berth — for first base prospect Bryce Ball last night. And while Chicago’s reportedly planning to engage in extension talks with first baseman Anthony Rizzo and shortstop Javier Báez before the trade deadline, there’s no indication that’s the case with Bryant.

One potential obstacle to a Bryant trade is salary. He signed a $19.5MM deal to avoid arbitration over the winter, approximately $8.3MM of which remains to be paid. The Nationals typically run higher than average payrolls, and their $183MM estimated figure (per Cot’s Baseball Contracts) for this season is about $14MM shy of the franchise’s 2019 outlay. That could suggest there’s room on the books for Bryant, although it remains to be seen if ownership’s keen on making such an investment in a team that entered play tonight with a meager 2.8% chance of making the playoffs, in FanGraphs’ estimation.

The other important potential roadblock to a deal that sends Bryant to the nation’s capital is the Nationals’ thin farm system. Certainly, every team in the league could put together a prospect package sufficient to land Bryant, who’ll be a free agent at season’s end. But Heyman hears that the Nats don’t want to trade their top two prospects, right-handed pitchers Cade Cavalli and Jackson Rutledge.

If that’s the case, it could be difficult for the Nationals to beat the market for Bryant. Infielder Yasel Antuna is the only other player in the system who garners a 45 FV ranking or better from Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein of FanGraphs, and he’s hitting .191/.269/.347 in High-A this year. First-round pick Brady House will certainly vault near the top of the organizational rankings once he signs a professional contract, but 2021 draftees can’t be traded until next offseason. Perhaps the Cubs would have interest in former top prospect Carter Kieboom, but his stock has dimmed amidst some struggles at the big league level and he’s currently on the minor league injured list with a knee issue.

It stands to reason more teams will join the Nationals and Mets as having reported interest in Bryant in the coming weeks. The Cubs look primed to be one of the deadline’s most active sellers, and Bryant’s production and laundry list of accolades will make him perhaps the highest-profile player on the trade market.

Mariners’ Evan White To Undergo Season-Ending Hip Surgery

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JULY 16: White has indeed elected to undergo season-ending hip surgery, reports Corey Brock of the Athletic (Twitter link).

JULY 10: Mariners first baseman Evan White was placed on the 10-day injured list on May 14 due to a strained left hip flexor, and his recovery process has already involved one setback, a cortisone shot, and a shift to the 60-day IL.  Now, White’s season is in jeopardy, as Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto told reporters (including The Athletic’s Corey Brock and MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer) that “the injury is more ominous than we thought.”

A season-ending surgery is a possibility, and whatever direction White and the team takes, “we are hopeful that we have a definitive answer on that in the next couple of days,” Dipoto said.  “My guess is at some point tomorrow, or just after we come out of the break, we’ll have a news update.  But I wouldn’t anticipate having Evan back, perhaps, for the remainder of the year.”

Such a procedure could have a longer-term impact than just the 2021 season.  While obviously the surgery’s intent is to correct White’s hip issue for now and in the future, it can take a while for players to fully adjust and recover from major hip surgery.  Perhaps the most famous recent example was Buster Posey, who had hip surgery late in the 2018 season and didn’t look right for the entire 2019 campaign (though Posey also had the additional physical toll of playing catcher).

Any way you look at it, the surgery is a rough development for the 25-year-old White, who has only 84 games and 306 plate appearances under his belt at the Major League level.  White has hit only .165/.235/.308 in the majors, but he has already made a name for himself as a defensive standout, winning AL Gold Glove honors at first base in his 2020 rookie season.

The 17th overall pick of the 2017 draft, White posted some solid (though not overwhelming) numbers at the plate in his first three minor league seasons, which was enough for the Mariners to confirm him as part of their future by signing White to a six-year contract worth $24MM in guaranteed money.  If all three club options are exercised, the contract maxes out as a nine-year pact worth $55.5MM through the 2028 campaign.

In short, there’s still plenty of time for White to get healthy and establish himself as a Seattle cornerstone, even if his first two seasons haven’t gone as planned.  These types of “pre-career” contract extensions between teams and top prospects have become increasingly popular in recent years, and White’s situation could be used (for better or worse) as an example of why some youngsters might prefer to lock in a big payday at the risk of potentially limiting future earnings.

Blue Jays Receive National Interest Exemption To Return To Canada On July 30

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The Blue Jays announced they’ve received a national interest exemption from the Canadian government to return in time for their July 30 homestand. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (Twitter link) reported the news shortly before the formal announcement.

The Jays will host the Royals in the Rogers Centre two weeks from now in the first game at their home ballpark in nearly two full calendar years. Border closures resulting from COVID-19 have kept the Jays from returning home in either of the past two seasons. They played the abbreviated 2020 campaign in Buffalo, the home of their Triple-A affiliate. They began this season hosting games at their Spring Training complex in Dunedin before relocating to Buffalo at the beginning of June.

July 30 will mark one of the more momentous dates in recent Jays’ history. After their three-game set against the Royals that weekend, Toronto will host series against the Indians, Red Sox and Angels through mid-August. Their final “homestand” in Buffalo — this weekend against the Rangers and early next week with the Red Sox — commences tonight before a seven-game road trip.

It remains to be seen whether the plan will require some sort of “bubble” format for players on the Jays and visiting clubs who have not been vaccinated against COVID-19. It stands to reason more details will become clear upon a formal announcement of approval from the Canadian government.

Starlin Castro Placed On Administrative Leave Following Domestic Violence Allegations

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2:06 pm: Castro has officially been placed on administrative leave, the league announced.

1:06 pm: Nationals infielder Starlin Castro will be placed on administrative leave as Major League Baseball looks into domestic violence allegations that have been brought forth against him, reports Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic.

Administrative leave is paid and is not seen as punitive by the league but rather a temporary status while commissioner Rob Manfred and his staff gain further details on the alleged incident. Castro will continue to receive service time while on administrative leave, which lasts for one week but can be extended in seven-day blocks if jointly agreed upon by Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association.

Additional details on the matter have yet to come to light. Castro is playing out the second season of a two-year, $12MM contract with the Nationals and is scheduled to become a free agent at season’s end.

Twins Discussing Extension With Byron Buxton

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Byron Buxton is currently on the injured list due to a fractured hand, but the Twins have given him something to think about while he mends. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Minnesota is hoping to sign Buxton long-term and recently offered him a deal that guarantees him more than $70MM and also includes escalators and incentives — presumably based on health and days spent on the active roster.

Now 27 years old, Buxton was the No. 2 overall draft pick back in 2012 and at various points topped prospect rankings at Baseball America, MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus and ESPN. There were some early growing pains at the plate as Buxton struggled with strikeouts and was unable to tap into his considerable raw power, but in recent years he’s shown the all-around talent that made such a high draft pick and such a vaunted prospect.

Dating back to 2019, Buxton has batted .282/.322/.581 with 33 home runs, 44 doubles, four triples and 21 stolen bases (in 25 attempts). That includes an otherworldly showing so far in 2021, when he’s slashed .369/.409/.767 with 10 home runs and 11 doubles in just 110 plate appearances. Given that Buxton is arguably the best defensive player in baseball, regardless of position, that production at the plate makes him one of baseball’s most valuable players on a per-game basis.

The problem for Buxton, of course, has been staying on the field. That outstanding 2019-21 output came over a sample of just 540 plate appearances, thanks to a barrage of injuries. Some have been fluky in nature — his current injury came when he was hit by a pitch; his 2018 fractured toe happened when he fouled a ball into his foot — but as Rosenthal points out, Buxton has made 11 career trips to the injured list. That number doesn’t even include a quartet of minor league IL placements for various injuries, including a pair of left wrist strains.

There isn’t one nagging injury that continues to hamper Buxton, which is both encouraging and frustrating at the same time. He’s dealt with migraines and concussion symptoms after all-out plays in the outfield, a partially torn a ligament in his thumb while sliding into the bag on a stolen base, surgery to repair the labrum in his left shoulder, and also landed on the IL due to a variety of strains and sprains over the years.

Because of that litany of injuries, Buxton is one of the toughest players in baseball to assess from a contractual standpoint. The aforementioned .282/.322/.581, 33-homer, 44-double output came in a span of 153 games — roughly one full season’s worth of play. Very few players could put together a stretch that impressive over a full season — and certainly not with comparable defensive value — but Buxton has only played 100 games in a Major League season on one occasion. It’s easy to argue that even a half season of Buxton is worth $10MM-plus, but it’s also understandable if the Twins are reluctant with the extent of their guarantee.

One piece of context that ought to be addressed when looking at any potential extension for Buxton is service time. He’ll be a free agent after the 2022 season and is arbitration-eligible for the final time this winter, but that’s due largely to the fact that Buxton wasn’t given a September call-up back in 2018.

Buxton landed on the Major League injured list early in 2018 with what was hoped to be a minimal stay due to migraine issues, but he fouled a ball into his foot during a rehab assignment and suffered a hairline fracture. He attempted to play through the injury at the MLB level but had perhaps the worst three-week stretch of his career while doing so. Buxton was eventually placed back the IL and, upon being activated, was optioned to Triple-A. He then incurred the aforementioned wrist strains, further prolonging his stay in the minors.

Buxton returned from the minor league IL to hit .356/.400/.596 in 12 games down the stretch with Triple-A Rochester, but he wasn’t included among the Twins’ September call-ups. That omission kept Buxton from crossing the threshold from two years of MLB service to three years and pushed his path to free agency back by a year.

GM Thad Levine acknowledged at the time (link via The Athletic) that Buxton’s representatives at Jet Sports Management were “displeased” and “disappointed” with the decision. Buxton himself told the Minneapolis Star Tribune the following December that his omission from the team’s collection of September call-ups “didn’t go over well,” though he later added that he still hoped to spend his entire career with the Twins organization.

The Twins did give Buxton a healthy raise for a Super Two player coming off an injury-decimated season that winter ($1.75MM), but it’s hard to imagine that the September 2018 issue wouldn’t resurface to some extent during present-day extension talks. That doesn’t mean a deal can’t be worked out, of course. It merely adds another layer to what already figured to be an immensely complex set of negotiations.

There aren’t many recent examples of a center fielder with five-plus years of big league service time forgoing free agency and signing an extension, although Aaron Hicks and Charlie Blackmon do serve as potential points of reference. Hicks signed a seven-year, $70MM contract in the spring of 2019 (six years, $64MM of new money). Blackmon signed a six-year, $108MM contract just after Opening Day 2018 (five years, $94MM in new money). Both had five-plus years of service time at the time of their extensions, as Buxton does now, but both were considerably older than Buxton is now. Buxton is also further from the open market at present by virtue of the fact that he’s negotiating midseason rather than during Spring Training of his walk year. Hicks and Blackmon could very well be talking points raised during discussions, but those data points are far from direct parallels.

Notably, Rosenthal suggests there’s a chance the Twins could trade Buxton if the two parties can’t come to terms on a contract extension, though such a move would seem likelier in the offseason than when Buxton is on the injured list with a broken hand. That’s something of a surprise in and of itself, as even in spite of their poor 2021 showing, the Twins have a promising young core of controllable hitters and ample payroll flexibility to reload their pitching staff this offseason. There’s no indication that the Twins are gearing up for a lengthy rebuilding effort, and it’d be hard for them to simultaneously trade Buxton prior to Opening Day 2022 and still claim to be aiming to contend next year.

Braves Acquire Joc Pederson From Cubs

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The Braves and Cubs have swung a notable trade, as outfielder Joc Pederson is on his way to Atlanta in exchange for first base prospect Bryce Ball.  Both teams have announced the trade, and there doesn’t appear to be any money changing hands in the deal.  This means the Braves will absorb all of the approximately $1.84MM remaining of Pederson’s $4.5MM salary for the 2021 season, as well as the $2.5MM buyout of the $10MM mutual option on his services for 2022.

Pederson addresses a clear and obvious need in the outfield for Atlanta after superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. was lost for the season due to a torn ACL.  Pederson has a lot of center field experience over his career, though it is probably more likely that he’ll be deployed mostly as a corner outfielder for the Braves.  With Pederson handling left or right field on a regular basis and Guillermo Heredia getting the bulk of the work in center field, the Braves can toggle between Orlando Arcia, Ehire Adrianza, Ender Inciarte and Abraham Almonte for the other corner spot and as backup options.

Joc PedersonSome type of right-handed hitting option might be necessary as a complement to Pederson, who has a modest .271/.348/.339 slash line in 66 PA against left-handed pitching this season.  His decision to sign a free agent deal with the Cubs last winter was made in part because Chicago offered Pederson a chance to every day rather than in a platoon capacity, and his numbers are still an improvement from his overall career line against left-handed pitching.  The batting average and OBP are at least respectable enough that the Braves might still use Pederson as more or less an everyday player just to plug one outfield hole.

It also possible the Braves could add another outfielder on the trade market, since today’s swap indicates that the club hasn’t conceded anything in the wake of Acuna’s devastating injury.  Atlanta has a 44-45 record but sits just 3.5 games back of the Mets for first place in the NL East.  Since the Braves have a tough schedule between now and the July 30 trade deadline (five games against the Mets, three against the Phillies, and three each against playoff contenders Tampa Bay and San Diego), it also isn’t out of the question that Pederson could be flipped again if the Braves struggle over the next two weeks and decide to sell some pieces.

An above-average bat for most of his seven seasons with the Dodgers, Pederson was also dealt to the Angels in a rather infamously scuttled deal prior to the 2020 campaign, but he remained on L.A.’s blue team long enough to capture a World Series ring.  He posted a .991 OPS over 37 plate appearances during the Dodgers’ postseason run, providing a happy ending after a struggle (.681 OPS in 138 PA) of a regular season.

The Braves had some interest in Pederson as a free agent, but he ended up signing with Chicago, and still hasn’t really gotten himself right at the plate.  Pederson has been a slightly below-average (95 wRC+, 96 OPS+) hitter in 287 total plate appearances this season, hitting .230/.300/.418 with 11 home runs.  All 11 of those homers have come against right-handed pitching, yet while Pederson sought out more playing time against lefties during the winter, the irony is that he has now struggled to hit righties for two straight seasons.  Pederson has only a .218/.285/.442 slash line in 221 PA against righties this year.

The Cubs have a 44-46 record, only a half-game behind the Braves in the standings and yet seemingly a world apart in terms of expectations for the remainder of the 2021 season.  Chicago has won just six of its last 25 games, thanks to a crushing 11-game losing streak that seems to have put them in a seller’s mindset as the deadline approaches.  As a rental player, Pederson was a natural trade chip to be moved, and speculation has swirled for months that such impending free agents (and franchise cornerstones) such as Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Anthony Rizzo could be on the move by July 30.

Today’s trade could be the first of many for the Cubs over the next two weeks, and the Wrigleyville side has already picked up one interesting minor leaguer in Ball.  A 24th-round pick for Atlanta in the 2019 draft, Ball was a power-heavy prospect who immediately displayed that skill in his first pro season, batting a cumulative .329/.395/.628 with 17 homers over 263 PA with the Braves’ rookie league and A-ball teams in 2019.  It hasn’t been as smooth for Ball this year, however, with only a .207/.354/.396 slash line in 212 PA at high-A ball, including a power dropoff resulting in only six home runs and a big reduction in slugging percentage.

MLB Pipeline ranked Ball as the 12th-best prospect in the Braves’ farm system, so he is more than just a lottery ticket at age 23 if the Cubs development system can sharpen his hitting potential.  For the sake of future trade speculation, Ball isn’t really enough of a premium first base prospect that it would make a Rizzo trade any more likely than it already is, necessarily.  (By that same token, dealing a first base prospect probably also isn’t a hint about Freddie Freeman’s future with the Braves, though Freeman certainly doesn’t look like a trade candidate.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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