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Mariners Acquire Domingo Santana, Send Ben Gamel To Brewers

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6:25pm: The clubs have announced the swap.

5:18pm: The Mariners and Brewers are closing in on a swap that would send outfielder Domingo Santana to Seattle, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (Twitter link). Outfielder Ben Gamel and righty Noah Zavolas are going to the Brewers in the deal, Corey Brock of The Athletic tweets. Medical reviews still must be conducted before things will be official, but it seems the parameters are agreed upon.

While the M’s are entering a sort of rebuilding phase, with the Brewers aiming to repeat their NL Central crown, this swap will send a notable MLB asset out west. That can be explained by Santana’s messy 2018 season, which largely knocked him out of the plans for Milwaukee.

Santana had turned in a highly productive, albeit strikeout-riddled, 2017 season. But the Brewers nevertheless pursued offseason outfield upgrades and the 26-year-old ended up cratering to open the ensuing campaign. Santana was demoted after 62 games of .249/.313/.354 hitting to open the year.

As it turned out, Santana got things going at Triple-A and returned with a nice (albeit brief) late-season run. He performed well enough to earn a not-insignificant postseason role, but not enough to write his way back into any future lineup cards. With no options remaining, a departure seemed the likeliest outcome.

The Mariners, though, will gladly take a shot at seeing whether Santana can get back to the thirty-homer, .371 OBP output that he produced in ’17. He’ll cost a projected $2.0MM in his first season of arbitration eligibility, leaving two more seasons of control still remaining thereafter.

Doing so will cost Seattle a chance to see more of Gamel, a left-handed-hitting asset who perhaps better fits the Brewers roster — particularly since he can still be optioned. The M’s had been loaded up on lefties, including recently acquired outfielders Mallex Smith and Jay Bruce.

Out in Milwaukee, it’s possible to imagine Gamel functioning as a bench mate to pair at times with Ryan Braun. The club had utilized the lefty-swinging Eric Thames at times in the corner outfield, though it’s fair to wonder whether that experiment will continue.

Gamel has hit at just above the league-average rate over the past two seasons, runs the bases well, and is capable of playing all three outfield positions (though he has mostly been utilized in the corners). He has not carried significant platoon splits to this point in his MLB career, which suggests he’s more of a general reserve than a strict platoon option.

As for Zavolas, the 22-year-old Harvard product had a nice debut showing in the Mariners system. In 38 2/3 innings, mostly at the low A level but also including three High-A appearances, he pitched to a 3.03 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. His outlook isn’t clear, but that’s impressive progress for a player who was selected in the 18th round just last summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Reds Acquire Kemp, Puig & Wood From Dodgers For Homer Bailey, Prospects

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The Dodgers and Reds have announced a long-rumored blockbuster that will shift around a variety of notable players. Veterans Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, and Alex Wood are all heading to Cincinnati, along with catcher/infielder Kyle Farmer and $7MM. Meanwhile, righty Homer Bailey is going to Los Angeles, accompanied by young righty Josiah Gray and infielder Jeter Downs.

Financial factors obviously weigh heavily here. Kemp is earning $21.5MM in the final year of his contract, while Bailey is earning $23MM — in addition to a $5MM buyout on his 2020 mutual option. Bailey, though, only represents a $17.5MM hit for luxury tax purposes, while Kemp is a $20MM CBT piece. The Dodgers’ cash and luxury tax savings are boosted yet further by moving Puig and Wood, though certainly both of those players are positive-value assets, even as they enter their final seasons of arbitration eligibility. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz project that Puig will earn $11.3MM while Wood will end up with a $9.0MM salary. Net it all out, and it seems that the Dodgers will take on $28MM in new obligations, plus the $7MM they’re covering of the old ones, while sending approximately $42MM to the Reds, who’ll end up taking on only ~$7MM in total new salary in the deal. In terms of the luxury tax, L.A. will trim its tabulation by around $16MM (as above, depending upon the final salaries for Wood and Puig), though obviously the actual tax savings will only be a percentage of that amount.*

Clearly, the Dodgers were willing to move on from a trio of useful, albeit expensive players in order to free up roster space and payroll flexibility while also picking up some worthwhile prospect assets. This is hardly the first deal of this kind from a Dodgers front office that is always working angles and contemplating large trade packages. Indeed, both Wood and Kemp came to the organization in other complex arrangements, the former as part of a 3-team, 13-player 2015 blockbuster and the latter in last winter’s tax-avoidance contract swap.

It’s hard not to look at this swap and think about what might be next for the Dodgers, who have now bumped two key corner outfield pieces from their ’19 plans. Clearly, the move opens the door to a potential run at Bryce Harper, though it hardly makes that anything approaching a certainty. Among other considerations, today’s move drops two of the club’s right-handed-hitting outfield pieces, moving lefties Alex Verdugo and Andrew Toles up the depth chart — for the time being, at least. Possibilities abound for the Dodgers, who’ll surely target both high-end assets and talented players who can function in more flexible roles as their winter continues to unfold.

On the Cincy side, the club certainly now has a better 2019 roster, though it’ll cost some near-term cash and (more importantly) some future value. Wood will slot into the rotation alongside the recently acquired Tanner Roark, who’s also a one-and-done asset. Puig and Kemp will presumably both enter the outfield mix along with left-handed hitters Scott Schebler and Jesse Winker.

Certainly, both Puig and Kemp will boost the Reds’ position-player unit. The former is a quality defender who has produced at about twenty percent above the league average rate at the plate over the past two years. In 444 plate appearances last year, he turned in a .267/.327/.494 slash with 23 long balls and 15 steals. Kemp cooled off after a momentous rebound to begin his second stint in Los Angeles, but still turned in 506 plate appearances of .290/.338/.481 hitting with 21 dingers over the course of the season. Kemp is likelier than Puig to function in more of a platoon role; in addition to his poorly regarded glovework, he’s about six years Puig’s senior at 34 years of age.

While Puig and Kemp are the best-known names in this deal, though, it’s certainly arguable that Wood was the key pick-up from the Reds’ perspective. The southpaw, who’ll soon turn 28, has steadily produced high-quality results ever since breaking into the bigs in 2013. Last year, he worked to a 3.68 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 over 151 2/3 innings.

There’s good reason to think the Reds will get quality output from Wood. In over eight hundred total MLB frames, he carries a 3.29 ERA with a 3.36 FIP, 3.49 xFIP, and 3.66 SIERA. Though Wood has long been dogged by questions about his long-term health, given his decidedly unorthodox motion, he has topped 150 frames in four of the past five campaigns.

Farmer, meanwhile, hasn’t done much in limited MLB opportunities. But he has hit well in the upper minors in recent campaigns and will at least function as a cheap catching depth asset for the Reds.

All told, it’s plenty of bang for the seven million bucks the Reds are taking on here. It’s hard to imagine the team could have done more with that amount of cash. Of course, the return is mostly tied up in single-season assets, and picking up those near-term pieces will mean the sacrifice of some potential long-term value.

Downs was generally considered one of the ten best prospects on the Cincinnati farm, after all, with Gray not far behind him. Both players are top recent draft picks — Downs went 32nd overall in 2017; Gray was plucked in the second round in the 2018 draft — who have shown quite well in their first professional opportunities. Downs turned in a .257/.351/.402 slash with 13 home runs and 37 steals over 524 plate appearances last year at the Class A level, while Gray threw 52 1/3 innings of 2.58 ERA ball, with 10.1 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9, in a dozen Rookie ball starts.

Bailey, meanwhile, is slated to function only as a vehicle for the rest of this deal. He’ll be cut loose by the Dodgers, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman confirms. Indeed, that seems to have been the reason he elected to waive his full no-trade rights. Bailey, who signed a big extension before the 2014 season that just did not work out for the Reds, has struggled since returning from a long bout with arm injuries. Presumably, he’ll be looking for a chance to compete in camp for a job with another organization.

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links) first reported that the deal was nearing finalization and had the key pieces. Bob Nightengale of USA Today added the prospects on Twitter. C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (on Twitter), Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter), and Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter) covered the remaining details.

*An earlier version of this post mistakenly tabulated the salaries to suggest the Dodgers were receiving, rather than sending, $7MM to the Reds. We regret the mistake.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rockies Sign Daniel Murphy

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DECEMBER 21, 3:50pm: Colorado has announced the signing.

9:00am: Murphy’s deal with the Rockies is frontloaded and comes with some deferrals, per Rosenthal (Twitter link). He’ll earn $10MM in 2019 and $8MM in 2020. The buyout on the mutual option is valued at $12MM and comes with a $6MM buyout, though $3MM of that buyout payment is deferred. If Murphy unlocks any bonus in the standard awards bonus package that is included in his contract — All-Star, MVP, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove, LCS or World Series MVP — the buyout will increase to $7MM (with $4MM deferred).

DECEMBER 20, 8:13pm: There’s also a mutual option for the 2021 season on the contract, tweets Robert Murray of The Athletic.

5:58pm: It’s a two-year, $24MM contract for Murphy, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. He’ll play mostly first base in Colorado, Passan adds.

5:46pm: Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that Murphy “is going” to the Rockies.

5:44pm: Murphy’s contract with the Rockies, if finalized, is expected to be a two-year contract, tweets Thomas Harding of MLB.com.

5:32pm: The Rockies are close to a deal with free-agent infielder Daniel Murphy, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post connected the two sides yesterday in a mailbag column. Murphy is represented by ACES.

Daniel Murphy

Murphy, 33, will bring to the Rockies one of the game’s better left-handed bats. Presumably, he’ll be an option at both second base and first base in Colorado, helping to fill the void created by fellow free agent DJ LeMahieu. Murphy’s defense at second base has taken a turn for the worse recently, particularly following microfracture surgery on his knee last offseason, so it’s at least possible that the Rox view him more as a first base option than as a second base option. If that’s the case, then Ian Desmond would likely shift to the outfield alongside Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl.

What hasn’t taken much of a downturn recently is Murphy’s bat. While the three-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger winner struggled a bit in his return from that aforementioned surgery, he caught fire after a brief slump. Over his final 293 plate appearances last season, Murphy flat-out raked at a .322/.358/.502 clip, swatting 12 homers and collecting 13 doubles along the way. He batted a combined .326/.375/.542 with 60 homers, 105 doubles and eight triples over the life of his previous three-year, $37.5MM contract, and he’ll take that production with him to the game’s most hitter-friendly environment: Coors Field.

Suffice it to say, Murphy will deepen an already-excellent lineup featuring Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story. He’ll likely join that trio and David Dahl in comprising the top portion of manager Bud Black’s lineup next season, as the Rox look to build on their 2018 NLDS appearance and put together a strong roster in their final season of club control over Arenado.

Given reports that Murphy’s primary position will be first base, it’s possible that general manager Jeff Bridich and his staff could yet explore the possibility of adding some additional second base options. However, between Desmond, Garrett Hampson, Ryan McMahon and Pat Valaika (to say nothing of looming top prospect Brendan Rodgers and some perhaps occasional work there for Murphy), the Rockies aren’t short on possibilities at the position.

While first base isn’t a position that Murphy has played much in recent years, he does have experience there. Murphy, in fact, logged 850 innings as a first baseman as a back in 2009, in a season where he didn’t tally a single inning of second-base duty at the MLB level. His playing time there has been more sparse in the years to follow, though he did play 83 innings at first base in 2018 and 151 innings there in 2016. Murphy drew terrific marks at first in that ’09 season (+11 DRS, 5.9 UZR), though that obviously carries little weight when projecting his defensive capabilities as a first baseman a full decade later. His defense there since the 2015 season has generally graded out as average in a very limited sample, and, as the Rockies showed with their initial signing of Desmond, they’re not afraid to move an infielder off his more traditional position and play him at first.

Murphy’s two-year, $24MM contract falls closely in line with the two-year, $20MM estimate forecast by MLBTR at the outset of free agency. As for the match with the Rockies, it was a relatively popular one among participants in MLBTR’s Free Agent Prediction contest, with roughly 6.6 percent of participants placing Murphy at Coors Field.

Dodgers Sign Joe Kelly

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1:27pm: MLBTR has confirmed that the contract breaks down as follows: $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary in 2019, $8.5MM salary in 2020, $8.5MM salary in 2021 and a $4MM buyout on a $12MM option for the 2022 season. In total, the contract guarantees Kelly $25MM.

Dec. 21, 12:45pm: The Dodgers have formally announced the signing. They’ll need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move, though they’ve yet to announce what that will be.

Dec. 13: The Dodgers and free agent righty Joe Kelly are close to an agreement, according to Ken Rosenthal and Robert Murray of The Athletic (Twitter link).  Kelly is set to receive a three-year deal worth around $25MM, as per Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan (via Twitter).  Kelly is represented by ACES.

Joe Kelly | Adam Glanzman/Getty Images

The Dodgers received an up-close (and, at the time, unwelcome) look at Kelly’s ability during the World Series, when he tossed six shutout innings over five appearances to help Boston capture the championship.  His work in the Fall Classic capped off an outstanding postseason for Kelly, who allowed just one earned run over 11 1/3 IP against the Dodgers, Astros, and Yankees.

If last October represented Kelly at his best, the righty hasn’t always been able to consistently deliver on that potential throughout his career.  Kelly posted a 4.39 ERA, 9.3 K/9, and 2.13 K/BB rate over 65 2/3 innings in the regular season, and has had some issues avoiding walks over the last three seasons (4.6 BB/9 since 2016).  His 9.2 K/9 over that same stretch is nothing to sneeze at, of course, though it still seems somewhat of an underwhelming total given the pure electricity in Kelly’s arm.  He averaged 98.1 mph on his fastball last season, dropping just slightly from a 99 mph average in 2017.

Kelly is likely to fit into the setup role in the Dodgers’ bullpen, handling the eighth inning to set up closer Kenley Jansen.  Given the amount of flexibility and potential starting arms that could see time in the pen, however, it also wouldn’t be surprising to see Kelly brought into higher-leverage situations earlier in games.

Between Kelly joining the Dodgers and Jeurys Familia going to the Mets, we’re beginning to see some of the offseason’s top free agent setup men come off the board.  MLBTR ranked Kelly 25th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agent, projecting him to land three years and $27MM (though we had the Anaheim native going to his hometown Angels, rather than the Los Angeles area’s other team).

Athletics Sign Joakim Soria

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Dec. 21: The Athletics have officially announced Soria’s two-year contract. Their 40-man roster is up to 38 players.

In addition to salaries of $6.5MM (2019) and $8.5MM (2020), Heyman tweets, Soria can earn $250K apiece upon finishing 35 and 40 games. He’ll also have a one-time, $750K assignment bonus in the event of a trade.

Dec. 20, 11:38pm: Soria’s deal will pay him exactly $15MM over two years, tweets Jon Heyman of Fancred.

11:05pm: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that the two sides do indeed have an agreement, in principle. Soria’s contract will check in with a total value in the $15-15.5MM range, tweets Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com.

10:51pm: The Athletics are closing in on a two-year contract with free-agent reliever Joakim Soria, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). The right-hander still has to pass a physical, per Rosenthal, and there are still some final details to be ironed out before the deal comes to fruition. Soria is represented by Oscar Suarez.

Joakim Soria | Stacy Revere/Getty Images

The 34-year-old Soria just wrapped up a three-year, $25MM contract with the Royals — a pact which didn’t pan out well in year one of the deal but took a turn for the better in years two and three. This past season, Soria tossed 60 2/3 innings of 3.12 ERA ball between the White Sox and Brewers, averaging 11.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and 0.59 HR/9 along the way.

In many respects, in fact, the 2018 season was one of the best, if not the best of Soria’s impressive big league career. He averaged personal bests in swinging-strike rate (14.4 percent) and  opponents’ chase rate (34.3 percent), and his 2.44 FIP and 2.88 SIERA were among the best marks of his 12-year MLB career as well. Perhaps most impressively, the 83.6 mph average exit velocity that Soria allowed to opponents registered as the lowest of any pitcher in baseball (min. 150 batted ball events), per Statcast.

Much of the emphasis for the A’s this offseason has centered around the team’s rotation needs (with good reason), but adding Soria to the mix will give Oakland another quality reliever to join the likes of Blake Treinen, Yusmeiro Petit, Lou Trivino, Fernando Rodney and Ryan Buchter. That’s a solid collection of relievers, which figures to be more important for the A’s than most other clubs, assuming they plan to continue utilizing “the opener” tactic and piecing together the occasional game via “bullpenning.”

While Soria unequivocally improves the pitching staff as a whole, the A’s still have a clear, pressing need for some pitchers who can offer more innings than the aforementioned bunch. Oakland will be without Sean Manaea for the entire 2019 season due to shoulder surgery, while right-handers Jharel Cotton and Daniel Gossett will be on the mend from Tommy John surgery early in the season. The same is true of top pitching prospect A.J. Puk, and another rotation option, Andrew Triggs, will be recovering from thoracic outlet surgery.

At present, the Oakland rotation is a muddled mess, with the likes of Daniel Mengden, Frankie Montas, Paul Blackburn, Chris Bassitt, Aaron Brooks, Tanner Anderson and Grant Holmes among the options from which the organization can choose. The A’s, somewhat unthinkably, managed to win 97 games in a season where their most prominent starters beyond Manaea were Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Edwin Jackson and Mengden. That, however, seems highly unlikely to be a repeatable feat, and the A’s are expected to add some more experienced rotation pieces as the winter progresses.

A two-year commitment to Soria in the $15.5MM range is within reasonable proximity, albeit a bit shy, of the two-year, $18MM contract MLBTR estimated when ranking the game’s top 50 free agents in early November. Among participants in MLBTR’s Free Agent Prediction Contest, just 3.2 percent correctly pegged Soria to land in green and gold this winter.

Athletics Acquire Jurickson Profar In Three-Team Trade With Rangers, Rays

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11:45am: The Rangers are receiving $750K worth of international allotments in the trade, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

11:22am: The teams have formally announced the trade. The international bonus allotments that the Rangers are receiving are coming over from the Athletics; the amount was not specified, though international allotments must be traded in increments of at least $250K, per the collective bargaining agreement.

10:15am: The Athletics, Rangers and Rays have reportedly come to an agreement on a three-team trade that will send infielder Jurickson Profar from Texas to Oakland. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan first broke the story. Right-handed reliever Emilio Pagan is headed from the A’s to the Rays in the swap, as is Oakland’s Competitive Balance Round A selection in next year’s draft (currently slotted in at No. 38 overall). The Rangers will send minor league right-hander Rollie Lacy to the Rays, as well.

Jurickson Profar | Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

In exchange for Profar and Lacy, the Rangers will receive minor league infielder Eli White from the A’s. Additionally, the Rays will send minor league left-handers Brock Burke and Kyle Bird and minor league right-hander Yoel Espinal to the Rangers. Texas will also receive international bonus allotments in the trade.

Presumably, the trade signals that Jed Lowrie’s time with the Athletics has come to a close. The Oakland infield is currently full with Matt Chapman at third base, Marcus Semien at shortstop and Matt Olson at first base, meaning Profar’s likeliest spot with the A’s will be second base. The addition of Profar also brings into question prospect Franklin Barreto’s immediate future with the organization, as he’d been the presumptive heir apparent at second base in the event that Lowrie signed elsewhere.

Profar, 26 in February, once rated as the game’s top overall prospect but saw is promising future put on hold when a pair of shoulder injuries cost him both the 2014 and 2015 seasons. He struggled in his 2016 return and was a seldom used utility piece in 2017, but Profar finally enjoyed a full, productive season with the Rangers in 2018. Last year, the switch-hitter appeared n a career-high 146 games and tallied a career-high 594 plate appearances, hitting .254/.335/.458 with 20 homers, 35 doubles, six triples and 10 stolen bases along the way.

Because Texas optioned Profar to Triple-A for much of the 2017 season, his overall level of Major League service time was suppressed a bit. As such, he has just under five years of service time, meaning the Athletics will be able to control Profar for both the 2019 and 2020 seasons before he reaches free agency. Profar is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn just $3.4MM in 2019, so he’ll be an affordable means of filling the team’s second base need for the next two years — a key factor for the perennially cost-conscious A’s, who still need to address their rotation.

The only other Major League piece involved in the trade is the 27-year-old Pagan, who is joining his third organization in three years. He spent just one year in Oakland after being acquired in the trade that sent first baseman Ryon Healy to the Mariners in the 2017-18 offseason. Though he’s moved around a fair bit, Pagan has generally had useful big league results. In 112 1/3 innings a a Major Leaguer, he’s notched a 3.85 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9.

Though Pagan shows good control and is able to miss plenty of bats, however, he’s not without his red flags. The right-hander is among the game’s most extreme fly-ball pitchers and has yielded an average of 1.6 home runs per nine innings at the Major League level — neither of which figures to become any easier when moving to the American League East and its cavalcade of hitter-friendly parks (though Tampa Bay’s Tropicana Field doesn’t necessarily fit that description). For the Rays, the fact that Pagan is well-versed in multi-inning appearances was likely appealing, though. Pagan’s 112 1/3 MLB frames have come across 89 total appearances, and the Rays aggressively lean on multi-inning relievers as part of the burgeoning “opener” strategy that worked quite well for them in 2018.

The 23-year-old Lacy will join the Tampa Bay organization after spending only a brief time with the Rangers. Texas acquired Lacy in the July trade that sent Cole Hamels to the Cubs, though his results with the Rangers dropped off a bit from the numbers he posted in the Cubs’ minor league system. Some of that surely coincides with a move from Class-A to Class-A Advanced, and it’s worth noting that Lacy only totaled 28 1/3 innings in the Rangers’ system before the season ended, so it’s also a small sample of data. On the season as a whole, the right-hander worked to a 2.97 ERA with 10.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a ground-ball rate of nearly 60 percent through 109 innings between those two levels this season.

Looking to the Rangers’ return, Burke may well be the headliner in the deal. A third-round pick in the 2014 draft, the 22-year-old Burke was the Rays’ minor league pitcher of the year this past season and pitched to a 3.08 ERA with 10.4 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 137 1/3 innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A. The Rays protected Burke from the Rule 5 Draft last month by selecting him to the 40-man roster, and he’ll now be added to the Rangers’ 40-man in place of Profar.

Bird, 26 in April, split the year between Double-A and Triple-A, where he pitched to a combined 2.39 ERA with 88 strikeouts against 35 walks in 75 1/3 innings of relief work. Like Burke, he was selected to the Rays’ 40-man roster last month, meaning he’ll join the Rangers’ 40-man and give the organization an immediate left-handed bullpen option for the upcoming season. Even if he doesn’t break camp with the club, it seems likely that Bird will get an opportunity at some point in 2019.

The 26-year-old Espinal spent the bulk of the ’18 season in Double-A Montgomery, where he boasted a huge strikeout rate but demonstrated his share of control issues as well. In 54 2/3 innings at the Double-A level, Espinal notched an impressive 1.98 ERA with 11.7 K/9 but 4.8 BB/9 and a below-average 32.2 percent ground-ball rate. He won’t be as immediate of an option as Burke or Bird, but with some Double-A experience already under his belt, he’s likely not that far off from MLB readiness.

White, meanwhile, is the lone piece headed from Oakland to Texas in the swap. An 11th-round pick by the A’s back in the 2016 draft, White took his already-strong OBP skills to new heights in at the Double-A level in 2018. In 578 plate appearances this past season, the second baseman/shortstop hit .306/.388/.450 with nine home runs, 30 doubles, eight triples and 18 steals.

Yahoo’s Jeff Passan reported that Profar had been traded to Oakland and eventually followed up with all of the names and pieces involved in the deal (all Twitter links). USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and the Dallas Morning News’ Evan Grant all added some details along the way (all Twitter links).

Cardinals Sign Andrew Miller

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10:50am: The Cardinals have officially announced the signing of Miller to a two-year contract with a vesting/club option for a third season.

10:41am: Rosenthal tweets that Miller will be guaranteed $25MM over the next two seasons with a $12MM vesting/club option for the 2021 campaign. Miller will be paid $11MM in 2019 and $11.5MM in 2020, and the option carries a $2.5MM buyout. He’ll receive a full no-trade clause as well — something Heyman suggested was a priority for the left-hander last week.

Per Rosenthal, the option will vest if Miller pitches a combined 110 games between the 2019-20 seasons. He can earn another $500K annually based on incentives.

Dec. 21, 10:34am: The Cardinals and Miller do indeed have an agreement, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman. Frank Cusumano of KSDK News in St. Louis tweets that it’s a two-year deal with a vesting option for a third season.

Dec. 20, 6:55pm: Yahoo’s Jeff Passan reports that the two sides are close to a multi-year deal (Twitter links). Miller, according to Passan, has received multiple two-year offers but has been seeking a three-year deal. It’s not yet clear whether the Cards went to three years or made a sizable increase to the value of a two-year offer. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that the Cardinals could announce a deal with Miller as soon as tomorrow.

6:49pm: The Cardinals are closing in on a contract with left-handed reliever Andrew Miller, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch had reported shortly beforehand that the Cards were still looking at Miller and Zach Britton, and that there could be some movement in the market before the holiday week (Twitter link). Miller is represented by Frontline’s Mark Rodgers.

Andrew Miller | Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

Miller, 34 in May, had a down season in 2018 as he missed brief stints due to hamstring and shoulder issues while also spending a more substantial period on the 60-day disabled list owing to a right knee injury. The result was a 4.24 ERA with somewhat diminished K/BB numbers in just 34 innings of work.

Of course, in the four preceding seasons, Miller was arguably the game’s best reliever, pitching to a ridiculous 1.72 ERA with averages of 14.5 strikeouts and 2.3 walks per nine innings pitched from 2014-17. With the exception of the 2017 season, he’s posted at least average ground-ball tendencies on an annual basis, and dating back to the 2013 season, the only pitchers in all of baseball with a better swinging-strike rate than Miller’s 15.7 percent are Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen.

A healthy Miller would give the Cardinals the high-end left-handed presence they’ve been seeking at the back end of their bullpen in recent seasons. St. Louis’ four-year contract with fellow southpaw Brett Cecil has yet to pay dividends halfway through the life of that contract. Tyler Lyons, meanwhile, showed promise in 2017 but was cut loose this past summer after struggling badly early in the season. The Cards have been linked to both Miller and Britton on multiple occasions this offseason, and it’s long seemed that bolstering the relief corps (ideally with a southpaw) was high on the team’s wish list.

If and when the deal is completed, Miller will join a bullpen that was completely overhauled on the fly over the summer. Frustrated by his bullpen’s inconsistency, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak released Greg Holland, outighted Lyons and traded Sam Tuivailala to the Mariners within a matter of days in late July. That shakeup, combined with some late-season promotions, gives the Cards a potential relief corps consisting of Jordan Hicks, Dakota Hudson, John Brebbia, Chasen Shreve, Luke Gregerson and Dominic Leone. Top prospect Alex Reyes and veteran Adam Wainwright, too, could both be options in manager Mike Shildt’s bullpen.

Both Gregerson and Leone were 2017-18 offseason additions but, like Cecil before them, underwhelmed in their initial run with the team. This’ll be the third consecutive offseason in which Mozeliak, GM Michael Girsch and the rest of the front office do some heavy lifting in the bullpen, with the organizational clearly hoping that the “third time’s charm” adage rings true.

The addition of Miller will mark another aggressive, high-profile signing for the Cardinals, who have already acquired Paul Goldschmidt from the D-backs in a trade that sent young MLB-ready assets to Arizona in the form of Carson Kelly and Luke Weaver. After three straight postseason misses, it’s no surprise to see Cardinals brass acting aggressively in an effort to surpass the NL Central champion Brewers and a perennially contending Cubs team. Cardinals fans have come to expect postseason-caliber rosters on an annual basis, and the three-year absence from October baseball is the organization’s longest “drought” since missing the playoffs each season from 1997-99. As such, it won’t be the least bit surprising if the Cardinals continue adding to what already looks to be a much-improved roster as the offseason progresses.

Padres Sign Ian Kinsler

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The Padres announced Thursday that they’ve bolstered their infield depth with the addition of veteran second baseman Ian Kinsler on a two-year contract with a club option for a third season. The BBI Sports Group client will reportedly take home an $8MM guarantee in the form of a $3.75MM salary in both 2019 and 2020, as well as a $500K buyout on a $3.5MM option for the 2021 season.

Ian Kinsler Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Kinsler, 36, is a known commodity for Padres GM A.J. Preller, who was an assistant GM with the Rangers during Kinsler’s tenure in Texas. Kinsler will bring to the San Diego organization one of the game’s premier defensive players, though his once-potent offense has tailed off in recent seasons. Since Kinsler’s debut in 2006, only six players in all of Major League Baseball have topped his mark of +118 Defensive Runs Saved. That’s not just a case of longevity, either, as Kinsler ranks fourth in DRS even over the past half decade and turned in a strong +10 DRS in 2018 alone. Ultimate Zone Rating has been similarly bullish on his defensive aptitude.

The 2018 campaign, however, saw Kinsler post a career-worst .240/.301/.380 batting line through 534 plate appearances between the Angels and Red Sox. His bat was only a bit below the league average with the Halos prior to the swap, though his production diminished greatly in 137 PAs with the Red Sox (.242/.294/.311). Overall, however, Kinsler’s premium defense and quality baserunning still led both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs to peg him at a bit more than two wins above replacement. A move to the spacious Petco Park probably won’t help Kinsler’s offense, but his glove and speed give him a fairly high floor at what looks to be a palatable price point.

[Related: Updated San Diego Padres depth chart and Padres payroll outlook]

Kinsler steps onto a Padres roster that, since season’s end, has jettisoned both Cory Spangenberg and Carlos Asuaje. He could get the early bulk of the work at second base in the event that Luis Urias heads to Triple-A for further development or, as MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell suggests (via Twitter) should Urias open the year at shortstop. In somewhat contradictory fashion, though, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that the Friars still consider Urias their primary second baseman, adding that Kinsler could work at third base early in the year.

Suffice it to say, the organization may not yet have a defined role in mind for Kinsler, whose ultimate position is likely somewhat dependent on the moves that San Diego makes between now and Opening Day. The Padres do have one of the game’s best overall prospects in shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., though once Tatis and Urias are both in the Majors, Kinsler could slide over to third base on a full-time basis or assume a utility role off the bench. In any event, it seems clear that Kinsler will be counted upon to appear at multiple positions over the life of his Padres tenure.

Kinsler’s addition further calls into question Jose Pirela’s role with the team, though it’s worth noting that the Friars have a full 40-man roster and will need to subtract someone in order to make the contract official. From a payroll standpoint, Kinsler should push the Padres to somewhere in the $83-84MM range for the coming season. The fact that there’s an option year on the deal suggests there’ll be a buyout, and therefore the annual salaries will both likely check in a bit south of $4MM. And the Padres only had about $60.5MM on the books for the 2020 season prior to adding Kinsler.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the agreement (via Twitter). MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reported the option value (Twitter link). Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweeted the annual breakdown of the deal.

Angels Sign Trevor Cahill

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The Angels have added their second starting pitcher of the week, announcing on Thursday that they’ve signed righty Trevor Cahill to a one-year contract for the 2019 season. Cahill, a client of John Boggs & Associates, will reportedly earn a $9MM base salary and can secure an additional $1.5MM via an incentives package. Specifically, the deal is said to pay him $250K for reaching each of 100, 110, 120 and 130 innings, and he’d notch another $500K upon reaching 170 innings. He’d also reportedly land a $250K assignment bonus in the event that he’s traded.

Cahill will now join the also recently signed Matt Harvey as a rental starter in Anaheim. That seems to be a good outcome for the team, which will promise the pair a combined $20MM without extending its obligations past the 2019 season.

Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that both Cahill and Harvey would command two-year, $22MM contracts. While the early returns on the rotation market were relatively promising, the more recent market markers have been suboptimal from the players’ perspective, with several hurlers securing less years than might have been anticipated.

Cahill, who’ll open the 2019 season at 31 years of age, has certainly not been the steadiest option in recent years, but he has shown some fascinating skills. Since returning to the rotation following a bounceback 2016 in a relief capacity, Cahill has struck out nearly a batter per inning while drawing grounders near his career 55.0% rate.

Outside of some late-’17 struggles, Cahill has been quite productive of late. He ended up giving the A’s 110 innings of 3.76 ERA ball last year, with peripherals to match — including a career-high 11.7% swinging-strike rate. Of course, DL stints again left cause for concern, which surely hurt Cahill’s bid for multiple seasons in free agency.

It’s certainly possible to look at the Angels rotation mix now and imagine a solid, cost-efficient unit. Andrew Heaney and Tyler Skaggs both showed well last year, while Jaime Barria and Felix Pena established themselves as solid options as well. Nick Tropeano is still around and will hope for a bounce back after some struggles upon returning from Tommy John surgery. JC Ramirez could return from the same procedure at some point. Luke Farrell, Miguel Almonte, and Dillon Peters represent depth pieces.

That said, it’s tough to see that as a high-grade unit even in the most optimistic of scenarios. And all of the team’s most-accomplished starters come with major recent health issues, including the two newest acquisitions. In a sense, it’s a continuation of last year’s approach of hoping to get enough innings from enough worthwhile pitchers to add up to a quality overall staff. It didn’t really work out in the aggregate. And now the highest-upside pieces are gone, with Garrett Richards and Matt Shoemaker out of the organization and Shohei Ohtani getting comfortable with a new ulnar collateral ligament.

The Halos reportedly pursued more notable targets, reportedly falling short in bids for both Patrick Corbin and Nathan Eovaldi earlier this winter. It’s still possible the club will continue angling for other arms, with Dallas Keuchel available in free agency and a few potential notable trade candidates, but it could also be that the club is now done with its rotation-building efforts. If that’s the case, then perhaps GM Billy Eppler will turn to other avenues to improve. The bullpen, catching unit, and position-player bench mix could all stand to be improved. Perhaps it’s not out of the question to imagine a surprise run at a high-level bat, though we’ve seen no real indication of that to this point.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the agreement and the terms (via Twitter). Mark Feinsand of MLB.com and Jon Heyman of Fancred added details on the incentives and assignment bonus (Twitter links).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Joe Smith Undergoes Surgery For Torn Achilles Tendon

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The Astros announced today that righty Joe Smith has undergone surgery for a ruptured Achilles tendon in his left leg. (H/t Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, via Twitter.) It will sideline him for an estimated six-to-eight month stretch, putting a large chunk of his 2019 season in jeopardy.

Needless to say, that’s most unwelcome news for both player and team. Smith, 34, is said to have suffered the injury in a recent workout. The 34-year-old is slated to earn $8MM for the 2019 campaign, his second in Houston since signing a two-year deal last winter.

Smith, a crafty sidearmer who has held opposing right-handed batters to an anemic .215/.280/.311 batting line over his dozen MLB campaigns, would surely have been a part of the ’Stros pen again in 2019. Last year, he worked to a 3.74 ERA with 9.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. He was tough to square up, as usual, but did allow nearly 1.4 homers per nine — about twice his career average.

Of course, it’s only fair to note that the organization will have a bevy of alternatives, particularly if it makes some rotation additions that bump other players into relief contention. Smith, in fact, was not much of a factor in the club’s postseason mix, cracking the roster but making just one appearance (which did not go well). Still, he’s a quality veteran performer and it always hurts to carry a salary commitment that doesn’t provide production. The Astros will have to hope that Smith is able to recover relatively quickly and provide a mid-season boost.

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