Brewers To Sign Eric Sogard
The Brewers have struck a deal with veteran infielder Eric Sogard, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic ( Twitter links). It’s said to be a one-year, $4.5MM arrangement that includes an option for another campaign.
Sogard returns to Milwaukee after an up-and-down stint with the club from 2017-18. When last he suited up for the Brew Crew, Sogard proved unable to repeat a strong 2017 season in which he walked more than he struck out and delivered his first-ever above-average offensive effort.
After that disappointing turn, Sogard secured a minor-league deal with the Blue Jays. He earned his way up rather quickly and ended up producing an even more interesting season with the bat. Over 442 plate appearances, before and after a mid-season trade to the Rays, Sogard popped 13 home runs and delivered a .290/.353/.457 batting line.
Sogard’s surprising burst obviously coincided with a general power wave. He also benefited in particular from some wall-scraping dingers that he rode out with a much-steepened average launch angle. We examined the topic in the approach to the trade deadline. As it turned out, Sogard hit just three dingers and slugged .404 in his 119 plate appearances with Tampa Bay, so perhaps there’s added cause to wonder whether that will continue.
No doubt the Brewers have a good sense of how much power to anticipate from Sogard. They’re also amply familiar with his other qualities, including an exceptional eye and contact ability. Sogard delivers well-regarded glovework at second base, the ability to line up just about anywhere on the field, and a track record of adding runs with his legs.
The Milwaukee roster has seen quite a lot of change in the infield already this winter. Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw, Eric Thames, and Hernan Perez all hit the open market. The club has now added Luis Urias, Ryon Healy, and Sogard as at least a partial slate of replacements.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Blue Jays Sign Tanner Roark
DECEMBER 18: This deal is now official.
It includes equal $12MM salaries, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports (Twitter links). There are some minor award-based incentives included as well.
DECEMBER 11: The Blue Jays have agreed to a deal with free-agent right-hander Tanner Roark, Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet report. It’s a two-year, $24MM accord, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Roark is a client of Matt Colleran.
This is a better payday than expected for Roark, who MLBTR predicted Toronto would sign to a two-year, $18MM contract at the outset of the offseason. Nevertheless, if Roark’s history is any indication, he should give the Blue Jays some much-needed stability in their rotation. The rebuilding club, whose starting staff looked like an enormous weakness entering the winter, has shown some level of interest in just about every free-agent rotation piece. The Blue Jays have added two so far between Roark and fellow righty Chase Anderson, whom they acquired in a trade with the Brewers, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Toronto pick up yet another notable starter before the offseason’s out.
The 33-year-old Roark will head north after dividing the first seven seasons of his career among Washington, Cincinnati and Oakland. Roark produced sub-3.00 ERA results three times as a member of the Nationals toward the beginning of his career, but he has settled into more of a mid- to back-end type in recent seasons. Roark notched an ERA and a FIP somewhere in the 4.00s in each of the previous three seasons, also totaling 160-plus innings in all of those years.
Most recently, Roark fired 165 1/3 frames between the Reds and Athletics in 2019, when he posted a 4.35 ERA/4.67 FIP with a career-best 8.6 K/9 against 2.78 BB/9, though he did manage a personal-worst groundball rate of 36.2 percent. The latter figure helped lead to a career-worst 15.5 percent home run-to-fly ball rate, but Roark was hardly alone in giving up more long balls than ever during a homer-happy year across the majors.
The Blue Jays are no doubt hopeful Roark’s HR/FB rate will return closer to his lifetime mark of 11.3 percent going forward. Regardless, he’s now the most accomplished starter on a starting staff that bid adieu to Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez in trades over the summer. Among Jays holdovers, only the relatively unproven Jacob Waguespack and Trent Thornton piled up 70 or more innings as starters in 2019.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Marlins To Sign Matt Kemp
The Marlins have struck a minor-league pact with outfielder Matt Kemp, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The deal includes an invitation to MLB camp.
We’ve heard all winter that the Fish wish to add more pop to their corner outfield mix. Kemp definitely has a history of swinging a big stick. He’ll be looking to make a comeback at 35 years of age on the heels of an injury marred 2019 season.
Kemp has had peaks and valleys at the plate throughout his career, though he was at least an average hitter at his low points. He carries a lifetime .285/.337/.485 batting line with 281 home runs through nearly seven thousand trips to the plate at the game’s highest level.
That career output is good for a 121 wRC+ — just a shade less than the 122 wRC+ he produced through 506 plate appearances in a surprise return to the Dodgers in 2018. Kemp ended up moving to the Reds via trade in the offseason, but never got off the ground in Cincinnati.
Kemp ended up appearing in only twenty MLB contests in 2019, a career-low for a player who debuted in 2006. He produced only a .200/.210/.283 slash in his 62 plate appearances with the Reds, striking out 19 times while drawing just a single walk. Kemp was dumped after he suffered a broken rib, an injury that lingered and cut short a brief attempt at getting things going at Triple-A with the Mets.
Even if Kemp is able to rebound at the plate, he’s not going to offer much in the field. But the Marlins will see how he looks in camp and go from there. Odds are Kemp won’t be tasked with an everyday role even if he’s in good form. The impact on the team’s other reputed offseason pursuits remains to be seen, but it seems fair to presume the signing won’t take the club out of the rest of the corner outfield market entirely.
Brewers Sign Ryon Healy
The Brewers announced a one-year deal with corner infielder Ryon Healy. Financial terms aren’t known. Healy had been cut loose by the Mariners at the outset of the offseason.
Healy will presumably be given a shot at earning a role in camp — if he can show he’s at full health. He’s still working back to full health after an injury-wrecked 2019 season that ended with hip surgery in August. Just when he’ll be fully able to contribute remains to be seen.
28 in January, Healy offers plenty of pop. He swatted 31 home runs in his 711 total plate appearances with the Mariners and might well have delivered more had he been able to participate more fully in the offensively charged 2019 environment. But Healy maintained a miserable .280 on-base percentage in Seattle.
The Brewers will surely hope that Healy can find a way to gain in the OBP department. He has never drawn many walks but also doesn’t strike out a ton. Healy carried lofty BABIP numbers on his way up the farm and in his early career with the Athletics, but fell off upon moving up the coast to the M’s. Statcast figures indicate that Healy may have been a bit unfortunate of late, perhaps bolstering the idea of taking a shot on him.
Defense isn’t seen as a strong suit for Healy, who has graded poorly at both first and third base to this point in his career. To what extend he’s seen as an option at the hot corner remains to be seen. The Brewers have shown a willingness to take chances on defensively suspect sluggers in recent years, relying in part upon advanced shifting to help cover for less-than-elite glovework.
Cardinals Sign Kwang-hyun Kim
3:57pm: The Cards have introduced Kim. It’s a two-year, $8MM deal, Goold tweets. Kim can also achieve up to $1.5MM in incentives in each year of the contract, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The deal includes protection against a minor-league demotion, per Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap (via Twitter).
1:28pm: The Cardinals have struck a deal with Korean pitcher Kwang-hyun Kim, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter). Contract details aren’t yet known, but a formal introduction has already been scheduled.
It emerged yesterday that Kim was not only in talks with the Cards, but had traveled to St. Louis in an effort to finalize a contract. While the seriousness of the interest was pretty clear, we now have a final resolution.
Long considered one of the most talented hurlers in his native South Korea, Kim nearly came to the majors way back in 2014. While the Padres were willing to pay a $2MM posting fee, the club couldn’t work out a contract with Kim.
Under the current posting system, every team in baseball was free to negotiate with Kim once his former club, SK Wyverns, decided to make him available. Rather than an up-front fee, the amount is determined in reference to the contract itself. Presuming that this contract includes less than $25MM in guaranteed money, the Cards will pay twenty percent of the total value to SK Wyverns.
Kim has long been a productive hurler in his native Korea. Though he has had some health issues at times, he’s coming off of a full 2019 campaign. While offense was down across the Korea Baseball Organization, Kim still stood out for his 190 1/3 innings of 2.51 ERA ball. He recorded 180 strikeouts against 38 walks on the year.
It’s not yet clear how the Cards intend to utilize Kim. Long a starter in the KBO, he certainly could be given a shot in the rotation, though doing so would likely mean bumping Carlos Martinez back into the bullpen. It’s possible the club will simply allow both pitchers to stretch out in camp and then hold off on a decision until the season arrives.
Diamondbacks Sign Madison Bumgarner
DECEMBER 17: The deal is now official.
Zach Buchanan of The Athletic reports further details on the contract structure (Twitter links). Bumgarner will earn just $6MM in 2020 before receiving successive salaries of $19MM, $23MM, $23MM, and $14MM. In each of the middle three campaigns, $5MM is deferred without interest. That money will be paid out in 2025-27.
DECEMBER 15: The Diamondbacks are closing in on a five-year deal that will bring free agent left-hander Madison Bumgarner to Arizona, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. The deal comes with an $85MM guarantee, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, with The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal adding that $15MM of that total will come in the form of deferred payments. Per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, the deal also includes a limited no-trade clause that allows Bumgarner to block trades to five teams.
It’s a somewhat surprising conclusion to Bumgarner’s first trip through free agency; while the 30-year-old had garnered well-documented interest from big-market teams like the Dodgers and Braves, the Diamondbacks were given relatively little attention as one of the teams pursuing the lefty. However, it seems that this match may have been motivated in part by the player’s interest in a team: Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic speculates that Bumgarner may have had larger offers on the table, but the geographic attraction of Arizona placed the Diamondbacks atop his list. In adding Bumgarner for $85MM, the Diamondbacks have handed out the second-largest contract in franchise history, behind only the mega-deal that brought Zack Greinke to the D-Backs prior to 2015.
And the price tag may look a bit low for Bumgarner, who was said to have his sights set on a nine-figure contract this winter. That seemed increasingly likely once the Phillies doled out $118MM to Zack Wheeler. Bumgarner is less than a year older than Wheeler and owns an undeniably stronger track record — interestingly, Bumgarner already had two championship rings by the time Wheeler made his MLB debut — but the disparity is indicative of teams’ belief in Wheeler’s projection, whereas Bumgarner’s best days could already be behind him. MLBTR had predicted that MadBum would end up with a four-year, $72MM deal. The actual contract adds another guaranteed season at a lesser rate of pay.
It may be that Bumgarner could have topped $100MM had he signed elsewhere. His reps gave other organizations the sense there there were multiple offers at that level, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Bumgarner evidently preferred to land in Arizona.
The Diamondbacks are clearly optimistic about Bumgarner’s future. While his numbers have certainly dipped noticeably from his stellar 2011-2016 span, Bumgarner is still a solid, reliable starter who has churned out 200-plus innings on a yearly basis. In 2019, his 3.90 ERA was the worst mark he’s posted in his career, but his strikeout rate reached its highest point since 2016. His home/road splits have been a noteworthy point of contention for those debating his value; having spent his entire career in the pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park, it’s fair to question how well he would fare in a different ballpark. With just a 35.8% groundball rate and a hard-hit rate that ranks in only the 10th percentile, skeptics may project an uptick in home runs outside of San Francisco.
Of course, we can’t discuss Madison Bumgarner without chronicling his legendary postseason ledger: during the heyday of the Giants’ early-2010s dynasty, MadBum tossed 102 1/3 innings of 2.11-ERA ball in October, including a 2014 run in which he shouldered the San Francisco pitching staff and worked 21 innings in the World Series alone.
With Bumgarner departing San Francisco after turning down the qualifying offer, the Giants will acquire a complementary draft choice in the 2020 draft, which adds to a healthy stable of picks that includes compensation received for Will Smith‘s departure. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, will surrender their third-highest draft pick as an additional cost for signing Bumgarner.
Much to the dismay of the San Francisco faithful, Bumgarner will remain the NL West, where he’ll face his former club several times every year. If it’s any consolation, Bumgarner won’t be donning Dodger blue when he makes his return. Still, the $17MM AAV that Bumgarner will earn over the next five years is certainly affordable and calls into question just how hard the Giants pushed to retain Bumgarner, even at a reasonable price. Giants fans can certainly be forgiven if there’s frustration that a franchise icon won’t spend his entire career with the team that drafted him.
Additionally, it’s possible that adding Bumgarner might afford the D-Backs greater freedom to explore trading lefty Robbie Ray, who has by now grown tired of hearing his name rumored in trades. He’s expected to earn just about $11MM in 2020, and with the Bumgarner signing representing another top-flight pitching option flying off the market, there’s a chance that pitcher-needy contenders, growing anxious at the shrinking supply of starters, could be more willing to pony up a shiny return for Ray. Even without Ray, the D-Backs’ starting rotation looks like a point of strength: Bumgarner will join rookie standout Zac Gallen, Luke Weaver, Mike Leake, and Merrill Kelly in the projected opening day rotation. Jon Duplantier and Corbin Martin, acquired in the deal that sent Greinke to Houston, loom as other options to contend for starts.
Brewers Sign Avisail Garcia
The Brewers have finalized their third free-agent signing of the past week, announcing Tuesday that they’ve agreed to a two-year contract with outfielder Avisail Garcia. The Mato Sports Management client will reportedly be guaranteed a total of $20MM and can earn up to $30MM if a 2021 club option is exercised.
The contract is said to come with a $500K signing bonus, a $7MM salary in 2020 and a $10.5MM salary in 2021. The $12MM club option contains a $2MM buyout and can be converted to a mutual option if Garcia reaches 550 plate appearances in 2021 or totals 1050 plate appearances over the first two seasons of the contract.
“Avisaíl provides an impactful right-handed hitting force in our lineup,” president of baseball operations David Stearns said in a press release. “Adding him to our current group of outfielders strengthens what was already one of the strongest outfields in baseball.”
This move represents the first big move on the corner outfield market. Garcia ends up getting the two-year deal that MLBTR predicted, but at a greater rate of pay than we had supposed. The contract sets an important market marker for fellow youthful, right-handed-hitting corner pieces Nicholas Castellanos, Marcell Ozuna, and Yasiel Puig.
Garcia actually received three-year offers, including from Milwaukee, according to Heyman. But he preferred the shorter pact, with the idea being that he will have a shot at returning to free agency in the first year of a new CBA. Whether that proves an optimal time to reenter the market remains to be seen, but Garcia — who won’t turn 29 until next June — will certainly still be rather young at that time.
This time last year, Garcia settled for a one-year bounceback deal with the Rays after he struggled through an injury-limited 2018 campaign. He made good on the contract, turning in 530 plate appearances of .282/.332/.464 hitting with twenty home runs, though that didn’t represent a full return to his breakout ’17 effort (.330/.380/.506).
The Brewers are betting that Garcia can at least replicate his showing last year in Tampa Bay. He graded well with the glove and has surprisingly outstanding sprint speed. While he doesn’t walk much, Garcia doesn’t strike out a ton and has shown he can hit for a high average. It’s certainly possible to envision the talented player putting it all together and delivering a star-caliber performance in Milwaukee.
Despite two-straight postseason appearances, the Brewers have taken an aggressive approach to turning over their roster this winter. The club now has a bit of an overload in the outfield, although the Brewers are generally aggressive in terms of rotating players through multiple positions. Per MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (Twitter link), manager Craig Counsell has informed Garcia that the team plans to utilize him in left field and in center field next season, with Ryan Braun moving around (i.e. spending time at first base) in order to accommodate the new arrangement. Garcia also has ample experience in right field, which could help to ease the burden on Christian Yelich early in the year as he returns from a season-ending patella fracture.
Jose F. Rivera of ESPN Deportes broke the news that the two sides were close to an agreement. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported the agreement and terms (via Twitter). USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the annual breakdown (Twitter links).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Twins, Sergio Romo Agree To Deal
Dec. 17: Romo’s new deal comes with a $4.75MM salary in 2020, reports La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. The 2021 option is valued at $5MM and comes with a $250K buyout, bringing the maximum value to $9.75MM over two years.
Dec. 16: The Twins are nearing a deal with reliever Sergio Romo, according to MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (via Twitter). If and when it’s complete, it’ll be a one-year arrangement that guarantees the Meister Sports client $5MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). It seems the pact could grow to $10MM in total value if a 2021 option is exercised, but the precise details still aren’t clear.
Romo gave the Minnesota organization just what it was looking for when he came over in a summer trade. In 27 appearances, he carried a 27:4 K/BB ratio. Including his early-season work with the Marlins, Romo rode his still-biting slider to 60 1/3 innings of 3.43 ERA pitching.
Given that Romo will turn 37 before the start of the next season, it’s fair to wonder how much longer he can keep this going. Then again, he has continued to deliver good innings with much the same formula as ever before. And the Twins don’t need to worry about the long haul here. Romo is being paid for his stabilizing presence in the relief corps of a team that fully intends to contend in 2020.
That the value-conscious, analytically inclined Twins front office kept pace with the bidding on Romo is a strong indication that expectations are relatively high. While he isn’t the K/BB monster he once was — he produced seventy of the former and just five of the latter in 2011 — Romo still produced a 13.9% swinging-strike rate last year. Durability isn’t a concern. Over his dozen years in the majors, Romo has thrown 623 frames and carried a 2.92 ERA along the way.
It’s still possible imagine another bullpen move for the Twins, but this fills a big need on the Minnesota roster. That leaves the focus, as ever, on the club’s rotation. With Madison Bumgarner becoming the latest top starter to head elsewhere, and the rival White Sox among the organizations still facing a need in the rotation, the intrigue is perhaps only increasing.
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Rays Sign Yoshitomo Tsutsugo
DECEMBER 16: Tampa Bay has announced the signing. Interestingly, it characterizes him as a third baseman and outfielder, which obviously suggests that Tsutsugo will be in the mix at the hot corner.
DECEMBER 13: The Rays are finalizing a two-year contract with Japanese slugger Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports (via Twitter). The contract being discussed would guarantee the first baseman/outfielder about $12MM total, per Topkin. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman indicates that a deal has been agreed upon (Twitter links).
Because he was posted by the Yokohama DeNA BayStars and is not a pure free agent, Tsutsugo would require the Rays to pay a posting/release fee to his former team. Under the current iteration of that system, a fee equal to 20 percent of a player’s first $25MM in guarantees is owed to his former team. That’d be $2.4MM on a $12MM contract, meaning a deal of this type for Tsutsugo would cost the Rays a total of about $14.4MM.
Tsutsugo, who turned 28 on Nov. 26, has been one of Japan’s most prominent sluggers for the past four seasons, hitting a combined .293/.402/.574 with 139 home runs, 116 doubles, five triples, a 15.1 percent walk rate and a 20.4 percent strikeout rate. His best season came back in 2016, when he launched a career-high 44 home runs and slashed .322/.430/.680. It’s worth noting that Tsutsugo’s 2019 season was his weakest of the past four (.272/.388/.511, 29 home runs) and saw his strikeout rate climb to 25.3 percent.
Listed at 6’0″ and 209 pounds, the left-handed-hitting Tsutsugo has played some third base in his career but primarily has been deployed as a left fielder and first baseman. He’ll presumably become an option at first base and DH with Tampa Bay, although the Rays’ fluid rotation of defensive players could afford the slugger some reps in the corners as well, particularly if the team wants to give newly acquired Hunter Renfroe a day off against a tough right-handed opponent. Renfroe hit just .208/.274/.459 against righties in 2019. On the surface, the signing of Tsutsugo appears to be bad news for first base prospect Nate Lowe, who also hits from the left side of the dish but never got a full look in 2019 despite huge numbers in Triple-A and a solid showing in 169 MLB plate appearances.
There’s little doubting Tsutsugo’s power, but his glovework is a much more considerable question. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote a bit more than a month ago that Tsutsugo is a potential everyday player but one with “no margin for error because of defensive limitations” even at first base. Sports Info Solutions’ Will Hoefer wrote in September that Tsutsugo has a plus throwing arm and could be “hidden” in an outfield corner with some proper positioning work. Those in the industry who’ve spoken to MLBTR about Tsutsugo offered similar concerns about his defensive home but praised his power as a legitimate tool.
Tsutsugo will now be added to an ever-changing cast of characters in a Tampa Bay lineup that has added Renfroe but subtracted Tommy Pham (Renfroe trade), Avisail Garcia (free agency) and Jesus Aguilar (waivers) to this point in the offseason. The signing of Tsutsugo could well put an end to any potential for a fit with free-agent slugger Edwin Encarnacion, who’d previously been a rumored target. Tsutsugo was also connected to the Tigers, Blue Jays, White Sox and Twins prior to today’s agreement with the Rays.
From a payroll vantage point, the deal should be a manageable one for the perennially low-spending Rays, who shed about $7.7MM in swapping out Pham for Renfroe and placing Aguilar on waivers. An even distribution of Tsutsugo’s $12MM guarantee would put the team’s Opening Day payroll at about $70.7MM (not including the posting fee), which would check in a bit south of last season’s $76MM Opening Day mark. The Rays have never opened the season with a payroll greater than 2014’s $77MM total.