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MLBTR Poll: Who Will Sign Tomoyuki Sugano?

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Tomoyuki Sugano arrived in the United States two days ago, according to The Hochi News (Japanese language link), as the right-hander and his agent Joel Wolfe plan for the final few days of Sugano’s 30-day posting window.  January 7 is the final day of that posting period, and with at least six MLB teams known to have interest in Sugano’s services, the odds seem to be in favor of Sugano pitching in the big leagues in 2021.

A move to North America is not guaranteed, however.  As noted in that Hochi News item, Sugano said earlier this month that he hadn’t yet fully decided on whether or not to make the jump to Major League Baseball, with the COVID-19 pandemic weighing as a factor in his decision.  As we just saw yesterday with outfielder Haruki Nishikawa, it isn’t uncommon for Japanese players to reach the end of their 30-day posting period without having reached a deal with any MLB teams.

Beyond that uncertainty, it’s also possible that Sugano’s market has been somewhat reduced in number.  Of the six teams linked to Sugano in rumors, two have made other significant pitching additions that may have removed them from the running.  The Rangers already made one foray into the Japanese pitching market by signing Kohei Arihara to a two-year, $6.2MM contract.  The Padres, of course, dominated headlines by swinging a pair of blockbuster trades for Yu Darvish and Blake Snell, and now headlines a rotation mix that also includes Dinelson Lamet, Chris Paddack, Adrian Morejon, Joey Lucchesi, and several impressive younger arms.

This isn’t to say that Texas or San Diego wouldn’t still have interest in Sugano, of course.  Even with Arihara’s signing, the Rangers could still conceivably add to their rotation considering that Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, and Kolby Allard all struggled in 2020.  As for the Padres, they’re so clearly in win-now mode that they might see Sugano as another key piece for what they hope is a World Series contender.  Adding another starting candidate serves as a further guard should Lamet have an injury setback, and it could allow the Padres to potentially float one of their younger arms as a trade chip in another trade.

The Red Sox also made a recent pitching addition in Matt Andriese, but while Andriese will be given a crack at a starting job, he might end up as a reliever or perhaps a swingman.  Boston has enough questions in its rotation that signing Sugano would make sense even if Andriese did end up as a starter.  Likewise, the Giants have retained Kevin Gausman via the qualifying offer and signed Anthony DeSclafani since the start of the offseason, but San Francisco’s pitching staff would certainly still use further reinforcement.

The Blue Jays and Mets have respectively been linked to almost every free agent this offseason, so it isn’t surprising that they’re both in on Sugano.  Whether Sugano would be either team’s final major pitching addition is the question, as a case could be made that both Toronto and New York have enough arms on hand, or that another notable hurler (perhaps even Trevor Bauer) is required to really turn either rotation into a big plus.

With these options in mind, it’s time to open the floor to the MLBTR readership.  Where do you think Sugano will pitch in 2021? (poll link for app users)

Latest On Masahiro Tanaka

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With the Yankees reportedly focusing much of their attention on DJ LeMahieu’s free agency, there hasn’t been much buzz about the possibility of a reunion between Masahiro Tanaka and the Bronx Bombers.  Tanaka has made some recent comments about his future, most recently a tweet earlier today stating that he and his representatives haven’t put any sort of limit on what teams Tanaka might be considering playing for in 2021 and beyond.

This tweet came on the heels of reports suggesting Tanaka was only considering a return to the Yankees or a return to Nippon Professional Baseball, rather than signing with another MLB club.  As it happened, Tanaka left the door open to pitching in Japan in an interview on the “All Night Nippon” radio show (hat tip to Nikkan Sports), saying the chances of returning to his home country are “not zero.”  Tanaka implied that pitching for the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles, his original NPB team, would be his ideal choice in the event of a homecoming, but he also said he’d consider the Yomiuri Giants.

During the radio interview, Tanaka also implied that he had yet to receive a contract offer from a Major League team, which doesn’t seem implausible given the slow-moving nature of this offseason’s free agent market.  More teams than just the Yankees seem to be playing the waiting game, whether it’s for a particular player or for a broader view of the market as a whole — in terms of pitching, clubs could be waiting to see where Trevor Bauer signs, or waiting to see where trade targets land.  By that token, business could pick up now that Yu Darvish and Blake Snell have both been moved, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if Tanaka begins to receive more serious attention from MLB clubs.

Rejoining the Golden Eagles or signing with another NPB team would certainly count as a surprise, since Tanaka still represents a solid investment for seemingly any Major League team looking for rotation help.  (MLB Trade Rumors ranked him 10th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents.)  Tanaka posted a 3.56 ERA, 8.3 K/9, and 5.50 K/BB rate in 2020, with that 48-inning sample size pretty closely matching his career totals over seven Major League seasons with the Yankees.  One would imagine this type of production would be welcome in a New York rotation that is lacking in proven big league experience, though given the speculation that the Yankees are trying to stay under the luxury tax threshold, re-signing Tanaka doesn’t appear to be a priority for the team unless LeMahieu signs elsewhere.

Eric Thames To Sign With NPB’s Yomiuri Giants

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Slugger Eric Thames is in agreement on a one-year deal with the Yomiuri Giants of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, as first reported by Sports Hochi. Reports out of Japan have pegged the one-year contract’s value in the vicinity of $1.2MM, though the precise number remains unclear. Thames is repped by Apex Baseball.

Thames becomes the second former Brewers first baseman to join the Giants in as many days, as Justin Smoak is also reported to be wrapping up a deal to join the Giants. That could mean that one or both will spend ample time at designated hitter, and Thames of course has plenty of experience playing the outfield corners as well.

The 2020 season was a tough one for Thames, who inked a one-year pact with the Nationals last winter. The 34-year-old had a productive three-year run with the Brewers (.241/.343/.504 with 72 homers and a 118 wRC+), but his lone season in D.C. resulted in a .203/.300/.317 batting line through 140 trips to the plate.

Thames is no stranger to playing overseas, having starred for the NC Dinos of the Korea Baseball Organization from 2014-16 before returning to MLB with the Brewers in 2017. This will mark his first action in NPB, however. Depending on how the 2021 season plays out for Thames, he should again be an interesting free agent next winter. With a productive year for the Giants, it’s easy to see him drawing legitimate interest from all three of MLB, NPB and the KBO a year from now.

Quick Hits: Arihara, Red Sox, Kahnle, Senga

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For Rangers fans curious about Kohei Arihara, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggests that Colby Lewis could be a decent comp for the newly-signed right-hander in terms of eating innings and a similar ability to record outs without the help of a big fastball.  The Rangers would certainly be more than pleased if Arihara were to duplicate Lewis’ numbers (4.27 ERA and an average of 166 innings per year) from 2010-16, and GM Chris Young told Grant and other reporters that the team was hopes Arihara can “stabilize the rotation” in terms of covering innings, at the very least.

“Durability is a highlight,” Young said.  “We think there is upside here, in terms of his curiosity and his willingness to learn and improve, but the durability component is a very appealing aspect of this signing….We’re hopeful for 150-plus [innings].”

More from around baseball…

  • The Red Sox were known to be the runners-up in the race to sign Tommy Kahnle, and The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham reports that the Sox were open to making the kind of two-year contract that Kahnle received from the Dodgers as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.  After ducking under the luxury tax threshold in 2020 and resetting their tax penalty limit, the Red Sox are now “exploring other creative ways to use their payroll flexibility,” Abraham writes, suggesting that the Sox could look to acquire prospects from another team by also agreeing to take a big contract off that team’s books.
  • Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks right-hander Kodai Senga is no closer to making his desired move to Major League Baseball, as per a Kyodo News report.  The Hawks are the only NPB team that has never posted a player to the majors, and according to general manager Sugihiko Mikasa, “I can’t say there is any big change to our policy” coming in the near future.  Senga, who turns 28 in January, has established himself as one of Japan’s top pitchers, with a 2.69 ERA, 2.98 K/BB rate, and 10.5 K/9 over 860 1/3 career innings for the Hawks from 2012-20.  Senga can be a full free agent after the 2022 season, and while the Hawks are working out a multi-year contract extension, it doesn’t seem like Senga would accept a deal beyond 2022 given his longstanding interest in North America.

Rangers To Sign Kohei Arihara

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TODAY: MLB Insider Jon Heyman provided some clarification as to the financial specifics today (via Twitter). As presumed yesterday, the posting fee will amount to $1.24MM, while the Rangers will pay out $6.2MM over the course of the two-year contract. Arihara will make $2.6MM in 2021 and $3.6MM in 2022, adds MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter).

Dec. 25: The Rangers are in agreement with right-hander Kohei Arihara, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). It’s a two-year contract in the $6-7MM range, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter).

Arihara, 28, has spent the past six seasons with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters of Nippon Professional Baseball. In 836 career innings at Japan’s highest level, Arihara compiled a 3.74 ERA with 6.7 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9. He has been especially productive over the past two years. Arihara posted a minuscule 2.46 ERA with a career-best 8.8 K/9 in 2019. This past season, he managed a 3.46 mark with 7.2 K/9 across 132.2 innings.

Writing for Baseball America on the heels of Arihara’s peak season in 2019, Jason Coskrey noted that the right-hander works in the low-90’s and primarily leans upon his fastball, changeup and slider. Arihara has up to seven distinct pitches in his arsenal, though, and Coskrey notes he’s adept at using his secondaries to keep opposing hitters off balance. He also has a long history of throwing strikes, not having issued more than 2.2 walks per nine innings pitched in any of his last five NPB seasons.

Arihara’s not known for especially overpowering raw stuff, and that’s been borne out in his relatively low strikeout rates. Shun Yamaguchi, who signed a similar contract with the Blue Jays last offseason, consistently posted heftier strikeout totals over his time in Japan than did Arihara. So too has Tomoyuki Sugano, the higher-profile NPB starter available to MLB teams via the posting system this winter. That could suggest Arihara’s more suited for the back of the rotation, although he figures to have a decent opportunity for innings in Texas.

Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles will presumably try to bounce back from dismal 2020 seasons. Dane Dunning will certainly get a rotation job after coming over from the White Sox in the Lance Lynn trade. There’s a lot of uncertainty beyond (and even among) that trio, though. Kolby Allard was knocked around last season and hasn’t yet established himself as a big league caliber starter. Kyle Cody, who never worked more than five innings, was the only other player still on the roster to start multiple games for Texas last season.

In addition to Arihara’s salary, the Rangers will owe the Fighters a release fee under the terms of the MLB-NPB posting system. The Fighters will receive a sum equal to 20 percent of the contract value. Depending upon the contract’s specific terms, that would put the posting fee in the $1.2MM – 1.4MM range. Texas’ total outlay is around $7.5MM, hears Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter).

The Red Sox and Padres were reportedly the other finalists in the bidding for Arihara, whose posting window was set to expire tomorrow. San Diego and Boston will now have to turn elsewhere in their hunt for additional rotation depth.

Fernando Romero Signs With NPB’s Yokohama BayStars

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DECEMBER 25: The BayStars have announced their agreement with Romero (h/t to the Japan Times). It’s a one-year deal with a club option for 2022. Romero will reportedly make $724,000 next season.

DECEMBER 18, 7:03pm: Romero will sign with the Yokohama BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, Dan Hayes of The Athletic tweets. The Twins will receive roughly $300K in return.

DECEMBER 18, 4:15pm: The Twins activated right-hander Fernando Romero from the restricted list and then released him, Chris Miller of the Star Tribune reports. Romero, who is from the Dominican Republic, was unable to secure a visa to the United States last season.

This is certainly not the way the Twins expected their relationship with Romero to end, as he was among their top prospects for multiple seasons. Baseball America ranked Romero as the Twins’ sixth-best farmhand in 2018 and wrote that he could turn into a second or third starter “if he can round out his third pitch.”

The 25-year-old Romero did collect 11 starts with the Twins from 2018-19, during which he averaged about 96 mph on his fastball, but the results weren’t great. He combined for 69 2/3 innings during those seasons and recorded a 5.17 ERA/4.49 FIP with 8.14 K/9, 3.88 BB/9 and a 47.4 percent groundball rate. Romero has been better in Triple-A ball, where he owns a 3.88 ERA and has registered 8.0 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9 in 148 1/3 innings. It’s likely some other team will take a chance on him now that he’s available to sign.

Adeiny Hechavarria Signs With NPB’s Chiba Lotte Marines

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Infielder Adeiny Hechavarría has agreed to a deal with the Chiba Lotte Marines of Nippon Professional Baseball, the team announced yesterday (h/t to the Japan Times). It’s a one-year deal worth a reported $970,000.

Hechavarría, 31, has appeared in the big leagues in each of the last nine years. Signed out of Cuba by the Blue Jays, he made his MLB debut with Toronto in 2012. That November, Hechavarría was part of the twelve-player blockbuster that sent José Reyes and Mark Buehrle to the Jays. He spent the next four seasons as the Marlins’ regular shortstop. He never hit for power or drew many walks, but Hechavarría made a lot of contact and rated as a plus defender at the position. As he got into his late-20’s, he became something of a journeyman depth infielder. Over the past four years, Hechavarría has suited up for the Marlins, Rays, Pirates, Yankees, Mets and Braves. He has slashed .251/.289/.387 with 23 home runs over 953 plate appearances in that time.

Last season, Hechavarría only picked up 63 plate appearances with Atlanta. He was left off the playoff roster during their run to the NLCS and became a free agent after the season.

International Signings: Alcantara, Overton

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A pair of former big leaguers have signed with teams in Asia over the past few days.

  • Right-hander Raúl Alcántara is joining the Hanshin Tigers of Nippon Professional Baseball, per a team announcement. The 28-year-old will be making his first trip to Japan’s highest level; he has spent the past two seasons in the Korea Baseball Organization. After posting solid but unspectacular numbers with the KT Wiz in 2019, Alcántara found a new gear this past season. Over 198.2 innings with the Doosan Bears in 2020, he worked to a 2.54 ERA with 8.2 K/9 against 1.4 BB/9. That earned him the Choi Dong-Won Award as the KBO’s top pitcher and sufficiently impressed the Tigers to bring him aboard. Alcántara’s big league experience consists of 46.1 innings of 7.19 ERA/7.45 FIP ball with the 2016-17 Athletics.
  • One of Alcántara’s former teammates in Oakland, Dillon Overton, also secured a job overseas. He signed with the Rakuten Monkeys of Taiwan’s Chinese Professional Baseball League, the club announced. A former A’s second-rounder, Overton combined for a 9.13 ERA/7.74 FIP across 47.1 MLB innings with Oakland and Seattle from 2016-17. The 29-year-old southpaw spent the 2018-19 seasons in the high minors with the Padres but didn’t make it back to the highest level. This will be his first season in a foreign pro league.

Report: Padres, Rangers, Red Sox Are Finalists For Kohei Arihara

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The 30-day posting window for right-hander Kohei Arihara is set to close on December 26, and Arihara is apparently set to choose between three MLB teams.  According to reports out of Japan, the Padres, Rangers, and Red Sox are the finalists for Arihara’s services.

San Diego was the only team known to have interest in Arihara, though it isn’t any surprise that pitching-needy teams like Texas and Boston are also looking into the 28-year-old.  Interestingly, the Padres, Rangers, and Red Sox have also been linked to Tomoyuki Sugano, another high-profile NPB name on the market.  Sugano’s posting window doesn’t close until January 7, so it’s possible that whichever team lands Arihara could drop out of the race for Sugano.

Comparisons between the two pitchers are inevitable, and Sugano certainly has the more successful track record in Nippon Professional Baseball, as a two-time Sawamura Award winner and one of the better pitchers in the entire league over the last decade.  Sugano is also 31, however, while Arihara doesn’t turn 29 until August.  Arihara would also presumably be available at a lower price tag, which is certainly a factor for any team in this offseason.

Arihara has a 3.74 ERA, 3.23 K/BB rate, and 6.7 K/9 over 836 innings for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters.  After winning Pacific League Rookie Of The Year honors in 2015, Arihara had a strong sophomore campaign in 2016 before his production took a dip in 2017-18.  He righted the ship with his finest season, as Arihara has a 2.46 ERA and 8.8 K/9 (both career bests) over 164 1/3 frames for the Fighters in 2019.

As per a scouting report from Will Hoefer of the Sports Info Solutions blog after that big 2019 season, Arihara has a plus changeup, and a fastball that can touch 95mph (though Arihara prefers to mix speeds to keep batters guessing).  Arihara has good command over these two pitches “and a slider that flashes plus,” and Hoefer projects the righty as “a middle of the rotation starter for an MLB team.”

Such an arm would surely be attractive to the three reported finalists.  The Padres are looking for rotation help in the wake of Mike Clevinger’s Tommy John surgery, and the Rangers and Red Sox are both looking for live arms just to fill out a rotation after their pitchers largely struggled in 2020.  In Texas, Arihara would slot in alongside veterans Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles, with newly-acquired Dane Dunning also tabbed for a rotation spot after being acquired in the Lance Lynn trade.  Boston’s pitching staff is even more open, given the uncertainty over how Eduardo Rodriguez will bounce back from the health problems that kept him off the mound in 2020, the ever-present injury concerns for Nathan Eovaldi, and an overall lack of experience among other starting options.

According to the MLB/NPB posting system, Arihara has been free to negotiate with any Major League club over his 30-day period, and once he signs with a team, that team will owe the Fighters a release fee that will vary based on the size of Arihara’s contract.  The Fighters will receive a sum of 20 percent of a contract’s first $25MM, and then 17.5 percent of the next $25MM, and 15 percent of any dollars spent beyond the $50MM threshold.

NPB/KBO Notes: Dice-K, Mengden, Almonte, Yoon

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Daisuke Matsuzaka is still going. The 40-year-old righty signed a one-year deal with the Seibu Lions in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball earlier this week, according to the Japan Times, rejoining the club for which he starred from 1999-2006. Matsuzaka was with the Lions in 2020 as well, although he spent the year rehabbing from back surgery that prevented him from pitching. The former Red Sox right-hander returned to NPB in 2015 and has since pitched with the SoftBank Hawks and Chunichi Dragons. He’s thrown just 5 1/3 innings since the conclusion of the 2018 season due to injuries, but he’ll hope for a healthier go of it as his career comes full circle with the Lions in 2021.

Some more notes on former big leaguers, the KBO and NPB…

  • Former Athletics right-hander Daniel Mengden has held negotiations with a club in the Korea Baseball Organization, per a report from South Korea’s Naver Sports (Korean language link). There’s no indication a deal has been completed yet. Mengden spent his first five professional seasons in Oakland, where he pitched to a 4.64 ERA/4.58 FIP and posted 6.66 K/9 against 3.03 BB/9 over 302 2/3 innings. He only threw 12 1/3 frames last year after undergoing three offseason surgeries (two to repair an intestinal issue, another on his elbow). The A’s outrighted the 27-year-old in September.
  • The KBO’s KT Wiz have signed outfielder Zoilo Almonte to a one-year, $525K guarantee with up to $250K in incentives, Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency relays. The ex-Yankees farmhand, 31, spent the previous three seasons with Chunichi, with which he slashed .316/.375/.484 and hit 31 home runs in 967 plate appearances. As Yoo notes, Almonte will replace 2020 KBO MVP Mel Rojas Jr., who left KT for the NPB’s Hanshin Tigers earlier this month.
  • Retired righty Suk-min Yoon is attempting to become a professional golfer in Korea, Yoo reports. Yoon was a highly successful starter with the KBO’s Kia Tigers, which led the Orioles to sign him to a contract worth a guaranteed $5.75MM over three years entering the 2014 campaign. He never threw a pitch for the Orioles, though, instead spending the year at Triple-A, and the O’s released him in 2015. Yoon returned to the Tigers and pitched in 2015, ’16 and ’18, but he hung up his cleats after a shoulder injury derailed his career.
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