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Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

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The Nationals will pursue at least one position player while seeking rotation help.

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Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

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Much has changed for the Nationals in the last 12 months. A year ago the team had yet to finish better than .500 since moving to Washington, Bryce Harper was playing in the Arizona Fall League, and Gio Gonzalez was still a member of the Athletics. Now, as the Nationals prepare to defend their NL East title, their offseason plans are closely tied to a player — Adam LaRoche — who seemed all but forgotten a year ago this time.

Adam LaRoche - Nationals (PW)

If the Nationals sign LaRoche, they could rely on Michael Morse, Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth in the outfield and bypass a deep class of free agent outfielders to focus on other needs. If the Nationals don't re-sign LaRoche then Michael Morse and Tyler Moore would become the team's primary first base options, and the search for outside outfield help would intensify.

It's also possible that the Nationals could re-sign LaRoche and pursue a free agent center fielder. GM Mike Rizzo could elect to create roster space by trading Morse at a time that many teams are seeking offense. The Rays, Indians and Red Sox are among the many teams that could have interest in trading for the first baseman.

A robust center field market includes B.J. Upton, Shane Victorino, Michael Bourn and others, so the Nationals figure to stay informed in case the right deal emerges. Though Harper handled center field nicely this past season, moving him to right field might make more sense long-term. However, they have some interest in Nick Swisher, an indication that they'd be comfortable spending at a corner position and relying on Harper in center field. The Nationals are also interested in Bourn, who has seemed like a fit in D.C. for a while.

LaRoche, the lone Nationals free agent to obtain a qualifying offer, has had talks with the team about returning for 2013 and beyond. Because of the weak class of free agent first basemen LaRoche has considerable leverage, even though he's tied to draft pick compensation. Still, there's no reason for Washington to spend desperately to retain him given their in-house alternatives.

The Nationals also need help in the rotation, so I found it somewhat surprising when they decided not to make Edwin Jackson a qualifying offer. He pitched well this past season, earning $11MM on a one-year contract. The Nationals could have created the possibility of draft pick compensation by offering a modest raise to $13.3MM on a low-risk one-year deal. Instead Jackson hits free agency and the Nationals' search for starting pitching continues.

The Nationals had a tremendous rotation this past season and with the exception of Jackson it'll stay together in 2013. Still, the Nationals need another starting pitcher this offseason. Ryan Dempster seems like a fit for the Nationals if he doesn't require a long-term commitment. Even though he's 35, the right-hander continues pitching effectively. Dan Haren and Hiroki Kuroda are among the veteran starters who could be available on short-term contracts this winter. Let's not forget about Zack Greinke, who would give Washington a formidable rotation if they could overcome the odds and find a way to sign him. Though there's always the possibility of a trade, the asking price for quality starting pitching figures to be high this offseason.

Washington's bullpen remains relatively young and affordable for now. Most of the relievers will return, yet left-handers Sean Burnett and Mike Gonzalez are free agents. While Rizzo could rely on southpaws such as Tom Gorzelanny, it makes sense for the Nationals to add a lefty specialist if possible. That would add depth and allow Gorzelanny to continue as a multiple inning reliever.

Rizzo addressed one of the team's biggest needs earlier this month when he brought Davey Johnson back for another season. It's possible owner Ted Lerner could look to extend Rizzo, who has just one guaranteed deal remaining on his contract with Washington (the deal includes options for 2014-15).

The Nationals have a large class of arbitration eligible players that includes two non-tender candidates. John Lannan figures to be cut loose after earning $5MM to play at Triple-A in 2012 and Jesus Flores could also lose his roster spot.

After extending three players last offseason the Nationals could pursue more long term deals with their top players. Tim Dierkes has suggested a five-year deal in the $45MM range could work for Jordan Zimmermann. Such a deal would resemble Gonzalez's recent extension and preserve the Nationals' rotation depth long-term. Ian Desmond also has a case for a multiyear deal following a breakout season at shortstop. Some will wonder about the possibility of an extension for Harper, but to me the timing doesn't seem right given the contract he signed after Washington drafted him.

The Nationals project as a scary team in 2013, assuming Rizzo adds a position player and obtains depth for his pitching staff. After years of building, this franchise's time to contend has arrived.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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The Tigers will look for corner outfield help and consider signing a starter.

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Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

The Tigers, American League champions in 2012, don't need to change the complexion of their roster this offseason. They’ll pursue pitching and consider corner outfielders in the coming months.

Anibal Sanchez - Tigers (PW)

The team began its offseason by re-signing manager Jim Leyland, a decision that makes sense after consecutive division titles and a World Series appearance. However, it didn't take long for the Tigers to announce that there won't be room for Jose Valverde and Delmon Young on next year's team.

Tigers president and GM Dave Dombrowski will focus on starting pitching and corner outfielders this offseason in an attempt to capture a championship for the first time since 1984. Torii Hunter has emerged as a strong possibility for the Tigers, and he'd be an excellent fit as long as they're not paying him to replicate his 2012 numbers. That won't happen, since his .389 BABIP isn't sustainable, but he can still add value on offense and defense. A two-year deal in the $16-20MM range might work for both sides.

If Hunter doesn't sign with the Tigers, free agents such as Melky Cabrera, Cody Ross and even Nick Swisher could appeal to Detroit's top executives. Swisher has more leverage than the others and might be prohibitively expensive for the Tigers given their other long-term commitments and offseason needs.

Like Swisher, Josh Hamilton appears to be too expensive for the Tigers. Hamilton would make the Tigers' lineup look scary, but he'll cost $100MM-plus. Owner Mike Ilitch has spent on elite free agents as recently as January, so the possibility of a deal with Hamilton lurks. Still, it'd require another aggressive move from ownership at a time that the free agent market offers many capable alternatives.

Andy Dirks emerged as a capable hitter this past season, and Quintin Berry played quite well at times, so the Tigers do have enough internal options to fill one corner outfield spot. However, Brennan Boesch must be considered a non-tender candidate following a disappointing campaign.

Other than outfield depth, starting pitching appears to be the Tigers' most prominent offseason need. Anibal Sanchez hits free agency as MLBTR's number four free agent following a strong season with the Marlins and Tigers. Ideally the Tigers would be able to retain him and keep their deep rotation together. Though he'll require a multiyear commitment, he's just 28 years old. Alternatively, the Tigers could pursue veteran free agent starters such as Dan Haren and Ryan Dempster.

Assuming the Tigers add a starting pitcher, they'll have the flexibility to consider starting Drew Smyly in the minor leagues or trading Rick Porcello — the Rockies and Blue Jays might have interest in the 23-year-old ground baller. This kind of depth wouldn't be a problem, since injuries inevitably surface and starting pitching will be in demand on the trade market. 

The Tigers have suggested they'll let Jose Valverde go without spending big on a replacement closer. This line of thinking makes sense, as a long-term deal for someone like Rafael Soriano would expose the team to lots of risk. Perhaps the Tigers will express interest in an injured reliever such as Ryan Madson or Joakim Soria. It'd be one way of bolstering a bullpen that seemed vulnerable at times this past season. They could also use a second reliable left-handed reliever to go along with Phil Coke.

Exercising Octavio Dotel's option made sense since the reliever continues to dominate right-handed batters. The Tigers also elected to bring Jhonny Peralta back for another season. While Peralta has his shortcomings, he's an affordable option for one year and the free agent market doesn't offer much at shortstop. It's possible the Tigers will acquire another shortstop and flip Peralta, not that such a scenario seems likely for now.

It'd also make sense for the Tigers to find a right-handed hitting backup catcher. It sounds as though Gerald Laird will sign elsewhere and the Tigers will consider options such as Kelly Shoppach and Miguel Olivo. Both Shoppach and Olivo have long histories of hitting left-handers and could be available on short-term contracts for $1-2MM.

The Tigers' class of arbitration eligible players includes three fifths of the team's rotation, two up the middle position players and one of the team's top relievers. It's possible the Tigers will talk to players such as Scherzer, Fister, Jackson and Avila about extensions. Even Justin Verlander could be viewed as an extension candidate. Two years remain on his contract, so free agency isn't so far away anymore. Any extension would have to be commensurate with Verlander's status as the game's top pitcher, so the TIgers could be inclined to wait if Ilitch prefers not to commit to another nine-figure contract. It's hard to imagine Verlander's leverage could get any higher.

Detroit's arbitration class also includes two non-tender candidates in Ryan Raburn and Brennan Boesch. Both showed promise on offense early in their careers but could be cut loose since their projected salaries surpass $2MM.

If the Tigers add a starting pitcher and obtain a corner outfield depth, they’ll project as a playoff team again. Maybe this time it'll result in a World Series title.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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The Braves will seek outfield depth and determine how to replace Chipper Jones in the coming months.

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Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

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The Braves’ lineup could look considerably different next year, since Michael Bourn’s a free agent and Chipper Jones has retired. General manager Frank Wren will seek outfield depth this winter, at a time that there’s an abundance of outfield options available in trades and free agency.

Michael Bourn - Braves (PW)

Few outfielders will generate more interest than Bourn, the speedy center fielder who spent the last year and a half in Atlanta. Bourn, a Scott Boras client, will surely decline the Braves’ qualifying offer in search of a multiyear deal. The Braves figure to keep tabs on the 29-year-old — they could certainly use a player of his caliber in center field. Still, Bourn figures to obtain a lucrative contract in free agency, and there are questions about how he’ll age, as Dave Cameron of FanGraphs explained in September. 

If Bourn signs elsewhere, the Braves could consider free agent center fielders such as B.J. Upton, Shane Victorino and Angel Pagan. While all three have enough leverage to command multiyear deals, they probably won’t require as much of a commitment as Bourn. Plus, all three are either right-handed hitters or switch hitters, which would add some balance to Atlanta's lefty-heavy lineup.

The Braves will also consider adding left fielders, since Martin Prado could move from left field to third base. This might be preferable for Atlanta given the lack of third basemen available in free agency. Corner outfielders such as Josh Hamilton, Nick Swisher and Cody Ross are now available on the open market.

Hamilton, the top position player available this winter, intrigues the Braves. He’ll presumably cost in excess of $100MM on a multiyear deal, however, and it’s not the Braves’ style to spend at the top of the free agent market. They should have the resources to spend on premium free agents this year now that Jones has retired, Derek Lowe’s contract has expired and Bourn has hit free agency. Still, it’s easier to envision the Liberty Media-owned team spending on Swisher or Ross.

Wren could also pursue trades for outfielders this winter. Shin-Soo Choo and Justin Upton could be available, though they play the same position as Jason Heyward. Josh Willingham and Denard Span of the Twins are also potential trade targets for the Braves. Atlanta's search for outfielders started early, when they claimed Jordan Schafer off of waivers in a move that provides them with depth and defense. Reed Johnson could re-sign as a free agent to come off of the bench and provide some offense against left-handed pitching.

If the Braves decide to keep Prado in the outfield and pursue a third baseman, they’ll encounter a light free agent market at the hot corner. Right-handed hitting infielder Kevin Youkilis would be one possible target. The trade market could include Chase Headley and David Wright, but those two seem like extension candidates rather than trade candidates at this point. Moving Prado to third base and pursuing two outfielders figures to provide Braves executives with more options.

Besides Bourn — MLBTR’s number three free agent — the Braves have lots of role players hitting free agency. As mentioned before, Johnson could return as a reserve outfielder. It won’t be surprising if the team’s other free agents sign elsewhere. Though David Ross complements Brian McCann nicely, many teams will have interest in Ross, so there’s a real chance Wren will have to find a replacement backup this winter.

The Braves’ large arbitration class includes a handful of non-tender candidates. Jair Jurrjens should be cut loose if the Braves can’t trade him by the November 30th deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration eligible players. Paul Janish provides insurance behind Andrelton Simmons and Tyler Pastornicky, but he recently underwent shoulder surgery and could also lose his roster spot this month. Peter Moylan isn’t safe either after missing much of the season to recover from a rotator cuff operation. 

Hanson could be a trade candidate at a time that many teams are looking for starting pitching. However, his fastball velocity dropped off in 2012 and his overall numbers were pedestrian: a 4.48 ERA in 174 2/3 innings. Hanson's trade value would have been considerably higher a year or two ago, as a pre-arbitration eligible player. The Braves’ internal assessment of Hanson will determine whether they trade him now or hold on in anticipation of a turnaround. 

Martin Prado could obtain an extension now that he’s just one year away from free agency. Tim Dierkes has suggested the sides could model a deal after Howie Kendrick’s four-year, $33.5MM contract. Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman and Kris Medlen could also be considered extension candidates, though there’s less urgency with those players this early in their respective careers.

The success of the Braves' offseason depends on Wren's ability to acquire two position players who can effectively replace Jones and Bourn in the lineup. They should have the resources to address these needs, and maintain their position as a likely playoff contender in the NL East.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

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The A’s must address the left side of their infield this offseason.

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Back in Spring Training, when fans, writers and analysts were compiling lists of offseason winners, the A’s weren’t mentioned nearly as often as teams like the Marlins and Angels. As it turns out, GM Billy Beane did just fine last winter. The A’s won their division in 2012, improving their record by 20 games and establishing themselves as a contender in the American League.

Grant Balfour - A's (PW)

As the 2012-13 offseason approaches, Beane finds himself facing some familiar challenges. The Athletics’ future in Oakland remains unclear and their payroll remains modest. Plus, Oakland needs answers on the left side of the infield to repeat as AL West winners in 2013.

Beane started making offseason moves early, sending Cliff Pennington to Arizona in the deal that brought Chris Young to Oakland. This move makes lots of sense for Oakland, since they obtain an up-the-middle player with some offensive skills. That said, it didn’t address any of the Athletics’ primary offseason needs — in fact it heightened the team’s need for a shortstop.

The primary challenge for Beane this winter appears to be finding a shortstop. Now that Stephen Drew has hit free agency, there are no guarantees he’ll return. If the scarcity of free agent shortstops leads to a bidding war for Drew’s services, it’s hard to imagine the A’s winning. And even if Oakland does outbid other interested teams, Drew could spurn them for another city. It wouldn’t be the first time a free agent position player has resisted overtures from Beane & Co.

This year's free agent shortstop class doesn't include standout players besides Drew and former Athletics infielder Marco Scutaro. At this point it seems likely that Scutaro will re-sign across the bay in San Francisco, which means Beane must also explore the trade market.

Acquiring Elvis Andrus from the Rangers won’t be easy for any team, especially one that recently unseated Texas atop the AL West. Yunel Escobar figures to be available, and Jhonny Peralta could be moved. I think it also makes sense for the A’s to inquire about players such as Jed Lowrie, Josh Rutledge, Asdrubal Cabrera and — why not? — Jose Reyes. 

While Beane recently expressed confidence in Josh Donaldson as a long-term option at third base, the A's could consider going outside of the organization at the position. Donaldson, a converted catcher, has a .232/.280/.386 batting line at the MLB level, so the A's must be realistic about what he can offer to be sure they're not looking for third basemen midway through the 2013 season. It's hard to imagine the A's trading for any of the prominent, high-salaried third basemen who could become available this offseason. Instead, they should watch the Cardinals on the off-chance Matt Carpenter becomes available. The left-handed hitting 26-year-old could complement the right-handed hitting Donaldson and provide Oakland with depth.

When the A’s engage other teams in trade talk this offseason, the topic of Oakland’s outfield depth will surely arise. However, Beane maintains that he's not looking to make a trade, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. The A's have four outfielders for three spots, and that’s not counting designated hitter Seth Smith or first baseman Brandon Moss. Coco Crisp could appeal to teams such as the Mets, Indians and Orioles. Or Beane could do what he did last offseason and trade highly-regarded, controllable players such as Josh Reddick or Yoenis Cespedes. At this point it’s easiest to envision a deal involving Crisp. Bay Area native Jonny Gomes figures to sign elsewhere in free agency given the composition of Oakland's roster.

Assuming the A’s expect some combination of Scott Sizemore and Jemile Weeks to handle second in 2013, they have solid internal options at every position except shortstop and third base. The pitching staff also seems strong, though more depth never hurts.

Beane already signed Bartolo Colon to a one-year contract — a depth move that makes sense considering the reality that injuries strike every year. The A’s say they’re still interested in re-signing Brandon McCarthy, even after agreeing to terms with Colon. While that may well be true, McCarthy could become prohibitively expensive if rival teams overlook his health issues and offer multiyear deals. It's not easy to win bidding wars with one of the league's smallest payrolls. 

Oakland exercised Grant Balfour’s 2013 option, so the Australian right-hander will be back for another season. Ryan Cook, Jerry Blevins, Jordan Norberto and Sean Doolittle will return to what projects as an above-average bullpen for 2013. The A’s won’t have to spend on free agent relievers the way they did two winters ago, at the time they signed Balfour and Brian Fuentes.

The team's class of arbitration eligible players includes two players — Daric Barton and Adam Rosales — who could be non-tendered. There's also a chance Beane could complete a trade involving Barton, who led the American League in walks two years ago. Though the group doesn't include any clear extension candidates, the A's could explore multiyear deals with pre-arbitration eligible players. They've made a habit of extending starting pitchers early on, so Tommy Milone or Jarrod Parker could be next.

The A's might not be any closer to resolving big picture questions about their home city and stadium, but at least their roster seems strong. It lacks balance now, with questions on the infield and an abundance of outfielders. Expect Beane to restore some balance in the months ahead.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals enter the offseason without the need for large-scale change.

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No general manager begins an offseason by declaring that his team could contend for a championship as-is. It'd be boastful and create unwanted attention. But if any team can contend in 2013 without making prominent offseason additions it's the Cardinals.

Adam Wainwright - Cardinals (PW)

The Cardinals seem to be in tremendous position for the 2013 season. Their roster includes impact players in their prime such as Yadier Molina and Matt Holliday. It features an effective starting rotation with a combination of established veterans and powerful young arms. There's a collection of homegrown, pre-arbitration eligible position players who can really hit. And the roster doesn't include a single bad contract.

That said, John Mozeliak has a number of needs this offseason. The general manager will pursue left-handed relief, perhaps through free agency. Jeremy Affeldt, Sean Burnett and Randy Choate are among the free agent left-handers who could become targets in St. Louis. There's also the possibility of a trade, not that teams are generally keen on parting with reliable left-handed relief. It'd make sense for the Cardinals to offer Burnett or Affeldt a modest multiyear deal if that's what it takes.

The Cardinals could also consider upgrades at the middle infield positions. They have more internal options at second base than at shortstop, since Matt Carpenter will work out at second this offseason and prospect Kolten Wong could contribute at the MLB level by 2013. There's also trade candidate Skip Schumaker and Daniel Descalso, who spent most of the '12 season at second.

Pete Kozma's postseason performance aside, the Cardinals have legitimate questions at shortstop. Counting on Rafael Furcal to stay healthy all year probably isn't realistic at this point, leading Joe Strauss to suggest the Cardinals could add a shortstop for the short term. While this may not be an urgent need, it's worth keeping in mind.

Schumaker doesn't have a clear role on next year's Cardinals team, so he could be traded. He'd likely draw interest given his $1.5MM salary, the scarcity of free agent second basemen and his ability to hit right-handed pitching and reach base. The Royals, Orioles and Blue Jays should all consider Schumaker in my view. Matt Adams could be another trade chip, since he doesn't have a clear role on the St. Louis roster. The 24-year-old has shown lots of power at the minor league level and could appeal to teams such as the Rays and Indians. If those teams hesitate to surrender value in trades, the Cardinals can simply keep Adams as depth.

Kyle Lohse will hit free agency this offseason, and he won't be returning to St. Louis. Expect the Cardinals to extend the right-hander a qualifying offer to set themselves up for draft pick compensation in 2013. Lance Berkman will also leave as a free agent (assuming he doesn't retire). Instead, Jenifer Langosch has suggested the Cardinals could pursue a right-handed hitting power threat for the bench. Jonny Gomes and Casper Wells are among the right-handed hitting outfielders who could appeal to Mozeliak.

The GM will likely discuss a potential extension with Adam Wainwright's representatives in the coming months. At this point, Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and Jake Westbrook are all on track to hit free agency following the 2013 season. By extending Wainwright the Cardinals would lock up a reliable starter who can facilitate the transition to a younger group of arms. He pitched well in his return from Tommy John surgery, even if he fell short of the lofty personal standards he established in 2009-10. Wainwright's representatives at Aegis Sports Management could be positioned to demand four or five additional years now that Wainwright's this close to free agency.

The Cardinals' group of six arbitration eligible players includes one non-tender candidate: Kyle McClellan. It's also possible Mozeliak could trade McClellan to a team in need of pitching, though they probably wouldn't obtain much in return given his season-ending shoulder injury.

The group also includes a number of extension candidates. It might make sense to wait before extending David Freese given his difficulties staying on the field. The Cardinals could also look to cap costs by signing relievers such as Jason Motte and Mitchell Boggs to modest extensions. At this stage there's no urgency to complete deals, so unless the Cardinals are getting discounts or extending their period of team control, new contracts won't be necessary.

Even a well-built team such as this one has offseason needs. Mozeliak will attempt to add left-handed relief and sort out his team's middle infield in the coming months. Still, compared to last offseason — a winter that included a managerial search and high stakes negotiations with the organization's franchise player — this year will probably seem pretty quiet.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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The Phillies must acquire at least one outfielder and pursue upgrades at third base.

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The Phillies are in unfamiliar territory this offseason. Their streak of consecutive division titles has ended at five, and the Nationals and Braves are now the teams to beat in the NL East. GM Ruben Amaro Jr. will pursue outfielders and third basemen this offseason, as the Phillies attempt to re-establish themselves as one of the premier teams in the National League.

Cliff Lee - Phillies (PW)

Just a few months after trading Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence the Phillies need outfielders. Fortunately for Amaro, the free agent market features a strong class of outfielders this offseason. The Phillies should have the resources to bid for top free agents after spending approximately $170MM on payroll in both of the past two seasons.

No free agent matches Josh Hamilton in terms of potential impact. The Phillies could be a fit the free agent outfielder, and we know Amaro likes to make splashes — sometimes unexpected ones. That doesn't always mean bidding on the top free agent available, however. Former Phillies outfielder Michael Bourn could be a target, and so could free agents such as Angel Pagan and B.J. Upton.

Alternatively, the Phillies could rely on John Mayberry in center field and pursue a corner outfielder such as Melky Cabrera or Nick Swisher. They have internal outfield options in Mayberry, Domonic Brown and Darin Ruf, but that's probably not enough certainty for a team that sees itself as a contender.

If the Phillies look to the trade market for outfield depth, they could pursue players such as Shin-Soo Choo, Denard Span, Josh Willingham, Coco Crisp, Justin Upton, Peter Bourjos and Jacoby Ellsbury. They have lots of options given the outfield depth in the upcoming free agent class and their ability to take on payroll.

Upgrading at third base won't be as easy. The Phillies declined their $5.5MM club option for Placido Polanco and will instead outside of the organization for help at the hot corner (no, Chase Utley won't shift over to third). There's not much available in free agency, with Kevin Youkilis leading an unremarkable free agent class. 

Some intriguing trade options could emerge at third base. Chase Headley and David Wright are now viewed as extension candidates following tremendous seasons. If contract talks don't go as planned and one of these players becomes available, the Phillies should attempt to strike a deal. Acquiring Wright would presumably be extremely difficult since he plays in the Phillies' division. The Phillies do have some internal options at third in Freddy Galvis and Kevin Frandsen.

Cliff Lee drew trade interest this past summer despite a contract that calls for annual salaries of $25MM through 2015. If the Phillies determine that they're getting to close to the MLB luxury tax, they could trade Lee and clear payroll. The Dodgers and Rangers are two of the many teams that would presumably have some interest in the left-hander. Still, the Phillies would have to get an impact player to justify trading Lee, who who has pitched at least 210 innings in every one of the past five seasons without posting an ERA over 3.25.

The Phillies exercised Carlos Ruiz's option immediately after the season, while declining the options for Polanco, Ty Wigginton and Jose Contreras. Free agents Brian Schneider and Juan Pierre are also expected to depart (obviously without the qualifying offers that would set the Phillies up for draft pick compensation).

The Phillies have a small arbitration class featuring just three players. It won't be surprising if all three — Frandsen, Nate Schierholtz and Antonio Bastardo — are tendered contracts, though none are considered extension candidates. There's a chance Schierholtz will be non-tendered. The Phillies could consider an extension for Ruiz, who will be eligible for free agency a year from now. Even though he's 33, adding one or two years to his existing contract could make sense given his offensive skills.

Amaro has said he regrets not doing more to bolster the bullpen last offseason. While Philadelphia's relievers pitched better in the second half, they're expected to pursue a setup reliever this winter. Perhaps a free agent such as Jason Grilli, Mike Adams or Koji Uehara will join the Phillies in the next couple of months.

If the Phillies obtain outfield help and address third base while adding to the bullpen, they'll have had a successful offseason. Still, the Phillies will enter the 2013 season with questions about the health of prominent players such as Utley and Halladay. This team’s hopes of contending in 2013 seem legitimate, but the Phillies are no longer the force they once were.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

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The Rays, one of the few teams with pitching to spare, have needs at multiple positions this coming offseason.

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At some point we’ll have to believe Andrew Friedman when he says he doesn’t intend to trade from starting pitching depth. When he said as much a year ago, the rumors continued and the Rays held on to their pitching. Could this offseason be different? James Shields and David Price are becoming more expensive, so this could finally be the year the Rays trade a prominent member of their rotation.

David Price - Rays (PW)

The Rays could address multiple needs by dealing a top-of-the-rotation starter. Their offense ranked 18th in MLB in runs scored, so there’s clearly room for improvement. Still, Friedman has maintained in the past that there’s little use in strengthening one area — such as offense — at the expense of another — in this case pitching.

The Rays were exceptionally good at preventing their opponents from scoring in 2012, allowing the fewest runs in MLB. Their team ERA of 3.19 is even more impressive considering they face designated hitters and play in a division that includes two of the top eight offenses in baseball. The rotation has enough quality arms that Shields or Price could be traded. It'd have to be for the right return though. The Rays haven't always obtained much in trades for starting pitching in the past, once sending Jason Hammel to Colorado for Aneury Rodriguez.

The players themselves are never the only consideration in pro sports, a reality fans of the Rays know better than most. Shields ($10.25MM) and Price (projected arbitration salary of $9.5MM) are making serious money now. Not only could the Rays obtain impact MLB players or prospects for their starters, they could create the payroll flexibility required to address other needs. Any serious offer for Price or Shields will include at least one controllable player with All-Star potential. It could be difficult for the Rays to pass on a trade involving someone like Wil Myers, Jurickson Profar or Mike Olt. 

Pinning down the Rays’ payroll won’t be easy — it never is. Their expenses have fluctuated considerably in the past five years, all the way up to $72MM and all the way down to $42MM. Assuming the Rays fall somewhere in that range again in 2013, they’ll have one of the lowest payrolls in the game.

This means yet another homegrown player will leave Tampa Bay and sign elsewhere as a free agent this coming offseason. Center fielder B.J. Upton has positioned himself for a multiyear deal worth $10MM-plus per season and priced himself out of Tampa Bay. That much is certain. It’s less clear whether the Rays will make Upton a qualifying offer and set themselves up for draft pick compensation. An offer seems probable, since the Rays could trade Upton in the unlikely event that he accepts.

The Rays didn't get much offense from first base, designated hitter or catcher this past season. Friedman could look to upgrade at any of those positions in the next few months. With Jeff Keppinger and Upton hitting free agency, there are also potential needs at second base and center field. Thanks to the defensive skills of Ben Zobrist, the Rays have exceptional flexibility. They can pursue players at every position but third base. 

Florida native Mike Napoli could be a fit if he's willing to sign a short-term deal. Napoli figures to have multiyear offers, but he might consider a competitive one-year offer to play close to home for a contender. Given the Rays' need for offense at catcher and first base it's worth a shot.

There’s no way the Rays can address each of their needs through free agency, and every other team knows it. They’ll have to consider trades — not just blockbusters but low-profile moves. Could they get an outfielder from the Athletics? An infielder from the Rockies? A catcher from the Blue Jays? A first baseman from the Nationals? The possibilities are just about endless.

The Rays have a medium-sized arbitration class that includes at least three non-tender candidates. Ben Francisco figures to lose his roster spot by the end of November and infielders Sean Rodriguez and Ryan Roberts could also be non-tendered.

Other organizations would view Price as an extension candidate at this stage in his career, but it's extremely hard to envision the Rays paying him market value; it could cost $100MM to sign the left-hander to a six-year deal. It'd be more the Rays' style to pursue extensions for pre-arbitration eligible players such as Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson. Even if it's uncommon for clients of the Boras Corporation to sign so early in their careers, there's no harm in checking in to see if a long-term deal could work for both sides.

The Tampa Bay front office faces four option decisions, one of which has already been picked up. Shields will be a bargain at $10.25MM. Rodney will be a steal at $2.5MM once the Rays exercise his option. The $1.8MM option for 37-year-old Jose Molina will also be exercised. Luke Scott could return if the Rays believe he's healthy enough to hit for power the way he did in Baltimore. Yet he's 34 years of age and spent considerable time on the disabled list last year, so he doesn't seem like the kind of player the Rays would spend significant money on.

As always, Friedman will have to find relief arms on a budget. The Rays have done impressive work supplementing their ‘pen with low-risk relievers in recent years. Rodney, a revelation in 2012, might be Tampa Bay's most impressive relief acquisition of all. He’ll return along with Jake McGee, Burke Badenhop and Wade Davis. However, Joel Peralta, J.P. Howell and Kyle Farnsworth are hitting free agency. Let the search for affordable relievers begin yet again.

The Rays enter the offseason with more needs than most 90-win teams. Their fantastic pitching staff will require a tune-up. And their below-average offense could use upgrades at a number of positions. It could lead to a lot of turnover, not that that’s anything new for Friedman and the Rays.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds will look for an outfielder who can bat leadoff this coming offseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Contract Options

  • Ryan Madson, RP: $11MM mutual option with a $2.5MM buyout
  • Ryan Ludwick, OF: $5MM mutual option with a $500K buyout

Free Agents

The Reds addressed some of their most pressing long-term needs this past spring, when they signed Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips to contract extensions worth a total approaching $300MM. After 97 regular season wins and an NL Central title, Walt Jocketty's roster still seems strong. The GM will likely pursue an outfielder who can bat leadoff and add relief depth in the offseason ahead.

Mat Latos - Reds (PW)

Jocketty already took care of one major move, re-signing manager Dusty Baker to a two-year extension. The veteran skipper returns with the expectation that he'll have a similarly competitive roster in 2013.

The team's most pressing need exists in the outfield, as Ryan Ludwick will decline his side of the mutual option on his contract. The Reds could re-sign Ludwick — they do have interest — or pursue a leadoff hitter. Jocketty has indicated adding a leadoff man will be a priority (and no, it doesn't sounds as though the Reds expect speedy shortstop-turned-outfield prospect Billy Hamilton to be ready by Opening Day 2013).

The free agent market includes potential leadoff hitters such as Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan and Shane Victorino. While these players will enter the offseason as top free agents seeking multiyear commitments, others, like Juan Pierre, will be more affordable. Mark Sheldon has suggested Coco Crisp could be a trade target for Cincinnati following Oakland's acquisition of Chris Young. A short-term option such as Pierre or Crisp might make most sense for the Reds if they believe Hamilton will be an impact leadoff hitter within a year or so.

It should also be noted that the Reds could acquire a center fielder and re-sign Ludwick. Drew Stubbs continues to struggle against right-handed pitching, so limiting his exposure to righties would be a positive, at least from an offensive standpoint. And while we're discussing outfielders let's make it clear that the chances of Josh Hamilton signing with Cincinnati are quite slim. As John Fay recently explained, the team wouldn't have room on its payroll.

The infield seems set for 2013, with Todd Frazier expected to start at third base in place of Scott Rolen. Rolen, a 37-year-old free agent, has said he's not sure whether he'll retire or continue playing. If he's open to returning as a part-time player, he could be a fit on Cincinnati's bench. The Reds will also need a backup middle infielder, assuming they non-tender Wilson Valdez. A Ronny Cedeno-type player could provide the Reds with the insurance they need up the middle while prospect Didi Gregorius develops.

Five pitchers started 161 of the Reds' 162 games in 2012 and, not coincidentally, no National League team allowed fewer runs in 2012. Though it'd be unreasonable to expect similar effectiveness and health again in 2013, Jocketty won't have an easy time convincing free agent starters to sign in Cincinnati. As of now there doesn't seem to be much opportunity on this starting staff. So how does a general manager maintain depth when he doesn’t have jobs to offer up? As the Brewers demonstrated in 2012, teams can avoid the problem by having a system that includes pitchers who could step into the MLB rotation. Left-hander Tony Cingrani might be able to fill this role for the Reds in 2013. While Aroldis Chapman would also be an intriguing rotation option, it's probably not a transition the Reds would want to make midseason. It'd also be prudent to seek starting depth in minor league deals or trades when possible.

The Reds' arbitration class includes a number of non-tender candidates in Valdez, Bill Bray and Logan Ondrusek. They've also got a pair of extension candidates in Mat Latos (pictured) and Homer Bailey. The Reds have signed ten players to extensions since the beginning of the 2010 calendar year, more than any team except the Rockies (the Reds are tied with Blue Jays and Giants at ten). Given Jocketty's recent history, it won’t be surprising if Latos or Bailey gets a multiyear deal.

The contract of reliever Ryan Madson includes a mutual option for 2013 that won't be exercised. The right-hander didn't throw a pitch for Cincinnati, missing the entire 2012 season to undergo Tommy John surgery. Though the Reds will decline their side of the mutual option, Madson could be a fit on a one-year, incentive-based deal. It's unclear if the Reds will discuss re-signing Jonathan Broxton, who pitched well in 25 appearances after Jocketty acquired him in a midseason trade. Retaining one of these relievers or signing another comparable pitcher would make sense, especially if Jocketty's entertaining the idea of using Chapman as a starter. Alternatively, they could wait for bargains or add bullpen depth on minor league deals. 

The Reds resemble the Cardinals in that their list of offseason needs appears to be relatively short. Jocketty will pursue outfield help, acquire some backup infielders and bolster his pitching staff this offseason. If he completes those goals within the next few months, the Reds will head to Spring Training with a team capable of repeating as division winners. 

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Pirates will look to add offense and acquire pitching depth in the hopes of ending their streak of 20 consecutive losing seasons.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Contract Options

Free Agents

There’s no easy fix for the Pirates, who enter the offseason with many needs and limited resources. Yet there’s some hope, even after consecutive late-season collapses, that 2013 will be the year the Pirates end their streak of 20 straight losing seasons. For the streak to end, GM Neal Huntington will have to pursue upgrades on the pitching staff and at multiple positions around the diamond.

Joel Hanrahan - Pirates (PW)

Pirates president Frank Coonelly has publicly expressed support for his team's front office executives. But the question persists: how long can upper management support the unconventional, military style player development methods which led to at least one injured prospect? Rival executives have said they consider these methods unacceptable and excessively risky.

The Pirates, who spent $52MM on payroll in 2012, have committed $28MM to next year's team with another $22MM or so projected to go to arbitration eligible players. Unless they unexpectedly increase payroll they aren't going to be signing elite free agents this coming winter.

The Pirates have lots of questions in their starting rotation in the short and long-term. A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez are in place atop the rotation for 2013, and James McDonald will be a welcome addition if he can replicate the form he showed in the first half of this past season. Beyond that there’s Charlie Morton, who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery, non-tender candidate Jeff Karstens, and a number of rookies. The Pirates have some intriguing young rotation candidates such as former first overall selection Gerrit Cole, but that’s not necessarily enough to keep them in games for the duration of a six-month season.

Kevin Correia's not expected to re-sign in Pittsburgh after losing his rotation spot late in the regular season. The Pirates could explore free agency for potential bargains such as Ervin Santana, Bartolo Colon, Scott Feldman, Francisco Liriano, Chris Young and Kevin Millwood. Perhaps they can follow the template that landed them Burnett and Rodriguez and acquire Chris Capuano or Aaron Harang from the Dodgers with Los Angeles taking on some salary. Huntington has had success with this type of deal in the past and might look to replicate it this winter, with his club still in need of pitching.

The Pirates could obtain some starting pitching by trading their closer, Joel Hanrahan (pictured). The right-hander’s salary projects to jump to the $7MM range, so it’s time for Huntington to complete a trade. It doesn’t make sense for the Pirates to allocate 15% of their budget to a reliever who pitches 4% of their innings. The Dodgers, Angels and Tigers are among the large market teams that could be seeking shutdown relievers this winter. Perhaps Huntington can move Hanrahan to one of those clubs while getting useful, controllable pieces in return.

A trade would prompt the Pirates to pursue relief help, especially since free agent right-hander Jason Grilli has a case for a multiyear deal, and could be priced out of Pittsburgh. Huntington has had past success finding effective relievers without overpaying for them. Grilli and Chris Resop, for example, were acquired for next to nothing. Replicating this success won’t be easy, but it’s one way for the Pirates to avoid spending $5MM per season on relievers. Whether it’s a Rule 5 selection, a late-winter bargain or a waiver claim, the Pirates must seek affordable bullpen help.

The Pirates also have significant needs on offense after ranking 24th in runs scored among MLB's 30 teams. They’re expected to seek a starting catcher at a time that a number of starting backstops are eligible for free agency. Mike Napoli's power would be a welcome addition to the Pirates' offense, so it makes sense to check in and see if a deal could work for both sides. However, top options such as Napoli and Russell Martin might not be affordable for the Pirates.

If that's the case they could simply seek a part-time backup for Michael McKenry, the 27-year-old who posted a .233/.320/.442 batting line in 275 plate appearances this past season. There’s “zero chance” the Pirates will exercise Rod Barajas’ option at $3.5MM according to Rob Biertempfel. Yet Barajas has said he'd be interested in re-signing at a lower figure, so that's a possibility (by the way, the team's other option, a $700K club option for Pedro Alvarez, will definitely be exercised).

Catcher was just one of the positions at which the Pirates struggled offensively in 2012. The team’s first basemen (24th in OPS, .693), shortstops (26th in OPS, .604) and left fielders (28th in OPS, .635) were among the least productive in MLB at their respective positions. 

Garrett Jones figures to start at first base again after hitting 27 home runs and posting a .274/.317/.516 batting line in 2012. Jones struggles against left-handers, which means Gaby Sanchez, a noted lefty masher, could add value in a complementary role. For all of his offensive struggles, Clint Barmes remains a highly-regarded defender. The Pirates should explore trades for shortstops in case there’s a deal to be had, but the trade value of shortstops who add value on offense and defense figures to be extremely high, especially when there’s not a strong class of free agents.

The Pirates have an assortment of corner outfield options in Travis Snider, Alex Presley, Jose Tabata and Starling Marte. Unfortunately Tabata's coming off of a disappointing year, Snider and Presley have had trouble against lefties and Marte remains an unknown commodity at the MLB level. Adding a prominent outfielder via trade or free agency seems unlikely given the Pirates' needs and resources. Hopefully for manager Clint Hurdle two of these players emerge as capable regulars in 2013. The group includes some players who began their professional careers as highly ranked prospects, so the potential for breakout seasons seems to be there. 

As I suggested earlier, the Pirates have a relatively large arbitration class that includes some non-tender candidates. Karstens could be cut loose with a projected salary approaching $4MM. There also appears to be a chance that Morton and Sanchez will be non-tendered. The group includes at least one extension candidate in first time eligible second baseman Neil Walker. The Pirates would do well to lock Walker up if they can limit costs for his four arbitration years and obtain control of at least one free agent season.

Huntington has at least one more chance to end the Pirates streak of losing seasons. If the first four months of this past season are any indication, the Pirates might be able to do even better than .500 in 2013. First things first, though. The Pirates must use their limited resources to find pitching and improve their below average offense.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels

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The Angels will pursue starting pitchers and relievers in the offseason ahead.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Contract Options

  • Dan Haren, SP: $15.5MM club option with a $3.5MM buyout
  • Ervin Santana, SP: $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Free Agents

The Angels are expected to make significant changes to a team that fell short of expectations in 2012. While it'd be hard to match the kind of impact additions they acquired a year ago, GM Jerry Dipoto recently indicated to Mike DiGiovanna of Los Angeles Times that the Angels will be able to spend in the offseason ahead. "We've never been short of resources," the GM said.

Mike Trout - Angels (PW)

Zack Greinke will hit free agency as the top starting pitcher available. Whoever signs the right-hander will presumably complete a deal after he has listened to offers from other clubs. He didn’t wait this long and turn down a nine-figure contract only to pass on free agency with weeks remaining before his best chance for a major payday. The Angels should bid on Greinke, an elite pitcher in his prime. They have the need and the resources, so spending in excess of $110MM would be justified.

The Angels are expected to decline club options for starters Dan Haren and Ervin Santana. Haren had a mediocre season, and won't be retained for $15.5MM. That shouldn't stop the Angels from making him a $13.3MM qualifying offer in my view. Extending a qualifying offer would lead to one of two desirable outcomes: Haren returns on a one-year deal or he departs, netting the Angels a compensatory draft choice in 2013.

Santana’s option will also be declined following a season in which his ERA climbed over 5.00 and his fastball velocity dropped. He won’t get a one-year qualifying offer from the Angels — it’d be an excessive commitment. Even if the Angels sign Greinke, they’ll be expected to seek a back-of-the-rotation option to complement Garrett Richards and Jerome Williams. Dipoto will be able to address this need later in the offseason, when potential bargains exist in free agency.

While Torii Hunter had a tremendous season, there are signs that his production could fade in the relatively near future. Hunter led the American League in batting average on balls in play this past season, posting a career high mark of .389. That's not sustainable for anyone, let alone a 37-year-old with diminishing speed. Furthermore, Hunter's isolated power dipped for the third consecutive season. It must also be noted that at some point Hunter’s defensive skills will decline. If the Angels want to re-sign Hunter for something like two years and $20MM, they should go for it. He’s still a good player. But if it takes a longer term contract or significantly more dollars it’d make sense for the Angels to let him go. Even large market teams must be discerning with their money.

This brings us to Vernon Wells, the 33-year-old outfielder with two years and $42MM remaining on his contract. Though the Angels would reportedly like to trade Wells, he has limited trade value after a season in which he posted a .230/.279/.403 batting line and hit 11 home runs. Unless the Angels work out a deal involving a comparable bad contract or absorb $30MM-plus of Wells' contract, he's not going anywhere.

It’s worth discussing the contract status of another Angels outfielder, even if he just completed his rookie season. Mike Trout might be viewed as an extension candidate after an extraordinary debut performance. While I understand the urge to lock Trout up, the Angels should be patient. The only players who compare to Trout at this point are Hall of Fame caliber talents, which means he’d be justified in demanding a historic financial commitment. If the Angels wait a year and Trout repeats his performance, they can pursue an extension at that point with the knowledge that a discount wasn’t attainable. But if Trout’s not quite as dominant in 2013, the Angels might be able to avoid paying him an unprecedented amount.

Though Alberto Callaspo will likely return to the Angels through the arbitration process, the Angels could seek upgrades at third base. There’s not a whole lot out there now, either in trades or free agency. Dipoto should keep tabs on trade candidates in case someone like David Wright or Chase Headley becomes available. Alex Rodriguez, another potentially available star, wouldn’t be a fit in Anaheim unless the Yankees are taking on a significant majority of the $114MM remaining on the 37-year-old’s contract.

The Angels got an early start on the offseason this month, signing Chris Iannetta to a three-year extension. It seems likely that other prospective free agents including Maicer Izturis, LaTroy Hawkins and Jason Isringhausen will move on this winter.

Dipoto will be seeking bullpen help in the months to come. He has said he doesn’t intend to pay a premium for relievers given the volatility of relief performances from year to year. Rafael Soriano might tempt the Angels if he opts out of his contract with the Yankees, yet a major free agent deal seems unlikely. Perhaps trade candidates such as Chris Perez and Joel Hanrahan will appeal to the GM instead. Alternatively, he could wait and obtain an affordable middle reliever or two in January or February.

The team's arbitration class could shrink to just three players if Williams gets non-tendered this winter. The remaining trio of Callaspo, Kevin Jepsen and Kendrys Morales shouldn't cost much more than $10MM in total and doesn't include any obvious extension candidates.

There's seemingly no chance the Angels will generate as much buzz as they did last winter. But Dipoto's roster already has enough star power that he doesn't need to make headlines for the offseason to be considered a success. He needs pitching and at this point that seems like an attainable goal.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

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