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Pirates’ Trade Talks For Rotation Help Have Slowed

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Throughout the late stages of the offseason, the Pirates have reportedly been exploring the trade market for rotation help, with the Marlins (specifically, right-hander Edward Cabrera) being the team most frequently suggested as a potential trade partner. However, while the Bucs talked with the Fish and surely several other clubs about deals to bolster the rotation, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that talks have “lost steam” and that GM Ben Cherington now says he’s increasingly focused on the arms in house.

“If there are things we can do to make the team better, we’re gonna stay on that,” Cherington tells Mackey. “No guarantee those things happen. We’re mostly focused on the guys who are here.”

The Pirates have three slam-dunk members of their Opening Day rotation: Mitch Keller, Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales. Keller, who recently signed a five-year contract extension, will get the Opening Day nod. There are still a pair of open rotation jobs, however, and Cherington suggested there are six or seven options vying for those two opportunities.

The names currently competing include a mix of young prospects, rebound candidates coming off a down 2023 showing, and veterans hoping to win a spot. While the Pirates have already informed 2023 No. 1 overall draft pick Paul Skenes that he won’t make the Opening Day roster, fellow top prospect Jared Jones (No. 74 on Baseball America’s top 100 list) is firmly in the mix. Jones may not have the same ceiling as Skenes, but Skenes pitched just 6 2/3 innings last year following the draft. Jones, on the other hand, logged a combined 3.85 ERA, 27.6% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate in 126 1/3 frames between Double-A and Triple-A in ’23. He’s pitched 4 2/3 shutout innings in camp.

Jones, 22, was specifically called out by manager Derek Shelton as a candidate for a spot in the Opening Day rotation (X link via Alex Stumpf of MLB.com). He’d need to be added to the 40-man roster, which could potentially work against him. That’s not true of Roansy Contreras, Quinn Priester, Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter and Kyle Nicolas, each of whom is on the 40-man roster. (Lefty Jackson Wolf is as well, but the Pirates already optioned him to Double-A in their first wave of spring cuts).

Contreras and Falter have the most experience of the bunch. Both are looking to rebound from ugly 2023 showings. Contreras looked like a potential rotation staple as recently as 2022, when he pitched 95 innings of 3.79 ERA ball with passable, if unspectacular, strikeout and walk rates (21.1%, 9.6%). However, he lost more than a mile off his heater in ’23 and took a step back in virtually every rate category of note. He’s still only 24 years old and is just two years removed from being a top-100 prospect himself, so there’s ample time for him to figure things out. He’s out of minor league options, meaning he’ll make the roster one way or another — be it in the rotation or in the bullpen. Pirates fans will want to check out Mackey’s piece in full, as it more fully details some of the gains Contreras has shown thus far in camp.

Falter was acquired at the 2022 trade deadline in a swap sending utilityman Rodolfo Castro to the Phillies. The 26-year-old was never as touted a prospect as Contreras was, but the two followed relatively similar arcs otherwise: brief MLB debut in 2021, solid back-of-the-rotation results in 2022, poor showing in 2023. Falter tossed 84 innings with a 3.86 ERA as the Phillies’ fifth starter in ’22, fanning 21.2% of his opponents against an exceptional 4.9% walk rate. Like Contreras, he saw his strikeout, walk, swinging-strike and home run rates all back up in 2023 as he finished out the season with a 5.36 ERA in 80 2/3 frames. Also like Contreras, he’s out of minor league options and will need to make the roster or else be traded or exposed to waivers.

Priester, Ortiz and Nicolas all have minor league options remaining and have all made their big league debuts (in quite brief fashion, for Nicolas). They all ranked within the organization’s top 15 prospects at Baseball America as recently as 2023. Priester and Ortiz both drew top-100 fanfare prior to their debuts. None of the three has established himself on the roster, however. Priester has the best minor league numbers of the group but has been hit harder than Ortiz in the big leagues. Ortiz throws the hardest but has displayed shakier command than Priester. Nicolas still hasn’t had much success above Double-A, so he seems likely ticketed for Triple-A Indianapolis to begin the year, particularly since he’s already been hit hard in camp.

The Bucs also have a pair of veterans who could compete for a job. Lefty Josh Fleming is on the 40-man roster after signing a split deal late in the winter. He’s out of options and can’t be sent down, but he’s spent the bulk of his MLB career as a swingman with the Rays and could be headed for a similar spot in Pittsburgh. Righty Chase Anderson is in camp on a non-roster deal. The 36-year-old hasn’t posted a sub-5.00 ERA in the big leagues since being traded by the Brewers following the 2019 season but has shown decently in Triple-A while bouncing around the league since then.

Luis Medina Diagnosed With Grade 2 MCL Sprain; Freddy Tarnok Shut Down

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12:20pm: The A’s have also shut Tarnok down for the time being, tweets Gallegos. The 25-year-old experienced a “flare-up” in his surgically repaired right hip and isn’t throwing at the moment. Tarnok underwent surgery to repair the labrum and some cartilage in his hip last August.

With just over three weeks until Opening Day, this update likely takes Tarnok out of the mix for a rotation job. The former Braves farmhand, acquired as part of last offseason’s Sean Murphy trade, missed the first few months of the ’23 season with a shoulder strain and pitched only 36 1/3 innings between the minors and the big leagues last year. Baseball America ranked Tarnok 25th among Oakland prospects this season, noting that a lack of durability and sub-par command point more to a future in the bullpen than the rotation ceiling that looked viable earlier in the righty’s minor league tenure.

11:03am: Athletics righty Luis Medina will begin the season on the injured list after being diagnosed with a Grade 2 sprain of the medial collateral ligament in his right knee, manager Mark Kotsay announced this morning (X link via Martin Gallegos of MLB.com). Medina exited his most recent spring start with a knee sprain of unknown severity and was seen in the A’s clubhouse on crutches this morning. There’s no firm timetable for Medina’s return to the Oakland roster, but a Grade 2 sprain likely comes with an absence of some note.

Acquired alongside JP Sears and Ken Waldichuk in the trade that sent Frankie Montas and Lou Trivino from the A’s to the Yankees, Medina may have had the inside track on the Athletics’ fifth starter job this spring. Sears, Paul Blackburn and offseason pickups Alex Wood and Ross Stripling are locked into the top four spots, but Medina had more success in the majors than the remainder of the (non-Sears) pitchers the A’s have landed over the course of their current rebuild.

Looking strictly at last year’s 5.42 ERA in 109 2/3 innings, that might not seem to be the case, but Medina was shelled early in his debut campaign before finishing the year on a more solid stretch. Over his final 11 starts and four long-relief appearances, Medina pitched 70 2/3 frames with a 4.22 ERA, albeit with shakier secondary marks.

Medina averaged better than 96 mph on his heater and posted a quality 11.4% swinging-strike rate, but those positives were undercut by subpar command. The right-hander walked more than 11% of his opponents, and that lackluster command contributed to a below-average 21.6% strikeout rate that checks in lower than one would expect for a pitcher with Medina’s velocity and bat-missing ability.

Medina will join Waldichuk (flexor strain/UCL sprain) on the injured list to begin the season. That pair’s subtraction from the team’s Opening Day rotation mix creates some additional competition in camp. Oakland has already optioned rotation hopefuls Adrian Martinez, Hogan Harris and Osvaldo Bido to Triple-A. Righties Joe Boyle, Freddy Tarnok, Joey Estes and Royber Salinas are all still in camp and are all already on the 40-man roster, as is lefty Kyle Muller. Rule 5 right-hander Mitch Spence is also in the mix for a rotation spot.

Nationals To Sign Eddie Rosario

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11:20am: Rosario’s minor league deal contains a $2MM base salary and another $2MM of incentives, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’ll head to big league camp once he passes his physical.

9:10am: Rosario’s contract is a minor league deal, tweets Andrew Golden of the Washington Post.

8:54am: The Nationals and free agent outfielder Eddie Rosario are in agreement on a split contract that can pay the veteran up to $4MM after incentives, reports Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base. The deal is still pending a physical. Rosario is represented by Rimas Sports.

Rosario, 32, is a veteran of nine big league seasons who’ll be joining his fourth MLB club after spending six seasons in Minnesota, half a year in Cleveland and two and a half seasons with Atlanta. He appeared in 142 games with the Braves last season, tallying 516 plate appearances and batting .255/.305/.450 with 21 home runs, 24 doubles, three triples, three steals, a 6.6% walk rate and a 23.6% strikeout rate.

From 2017-20 with the Twins, Rosario was a key presence in the middle of the lineup, popping a total of 96 home runs in 2002 plate appearances and hitting .281/.317/.493 — about 12% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. His bat has tailed off since that time, however. Rosario’s blistering run with the Braves following his acquisition at the 2021 trade deadline helped push Atlanta to the postseason, and his Herculean performance in that year’s NLCS won him MVP honors during that series. But on the whole, Rosario’s bat has been below average since departing Minnesota.

Over the past three seasons, Rosario has turned in a tepid .247/.295/.417 batting line (91 wRC+). He’s still shown some power, connecting on 40 homers and logging a .171 ISO (slugging minus batting average) in that time, but Rosario has become increasingly strikeout prone along the way.

During that peak four-year run with Minnesota, Rosario fanned in just 16.5% of his plate appearances. That mark has climbed to 24.2% over the past two seasons. Rosario has never walked much, but in the past, his plus bat-to-ball skills have helped to offset his anemic walk rates and justify his swing-at-everything approach. That’s no longer the case. In 2022-23, Rosario swung more often than all but 13 big league hitters (min. 500 plate appearances), but his contact rate ranked 265th of 318 in that same subset. The issue is magnified on pitches off the plate. Rosario has chased outside the strike zone more frequently than all but seven hitters in that span but ranks 173rd in contact rate on pitches off the plate.

Those traits underscore the free-swinging Rosario’s problematic approach at the plate, but the lefty-swinging veteran can still punish mistakes in the strike zone, particularly against right-handed pitching. His career batting average and OBP lack any telling platoon splits, but the vast majority of Rosario’s power comes when facing righties.

Defensively, Rosario has experience in all three outfield spots but is best deployed as a left fielder. His sprint speed (28 ft/sec, per Statcast) still ranks comfortably above league average, but he’s never displayed the range for center field and his once-elite arm has deteriorated over the past few seasons. As recently as 2020, Rosario averaged a huge 91.6 mph on his throws from the outfield, placing him in the 95th percentile of MLB outfielders. He was down to 85.1 mph in 2023, effectively placing him right at league average.

With the Nationals, Rosario can give manager Davey Martinez another veteran to compete for time in left field, joining fellow lefty hitter Jesse Winker in that regard. Center field figures to be manned by Victor Robles, with Lane Thomas slated for everyday reps in right field. Rosario and/or Winker could also contribute at designated hitter, but the Nats signed Joey Gallo to a big league deal last month and still have Joey Meneses as well.

That gives the Nats plenty of options at first base, designated hitter and left field. Assuming the physical goes well, Rosario will be among the favorites for playing time in left field, perhaps in a platoon setting with righty-hitting Stone Garrett. Rosario will also give Washington some depth to allow touted prospects and potential cornerstones Dylan Crews and James Wood to continue developing in the upper minors rather than rushing them to the big leagues. It’s a low-cost, minimal-risk deal for a team that has looked light on experienced outfield depth and on viable power threats in the middle of the order.

Lucas Giolito Diagnosed With Partial UCL Tear, Flexor Strain

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March 6: Giolito will receive a second opinion from Dr. Jeff Dugas, Cora said this morning (X link via McCaffrey). Cora conceded that surgery is indeed an option, but no final decisions will be made until the right-hander receives that second opinion.

March 5: Red Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito experienced discomfort in his right elbow after his most recent throwing session, manager Alex Cora announced Tuesday morning (X link via Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic). He’ll undergo additional testing, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the initial diagnosis is a partial tear of the right ulnar collateral ligament and a flexor strain. A determination on treatment won’t be made until Giolito receives additional opinions, but season-ending surgery is obviously now on the table.

It’s a brutal blow for the Red Sox, who signed Giolito to a two-year, $38.5MM contract that allows the right-hander to opt out following the 2024 campaign. Assuming additional opinions confirm the team’s initial diagnosis, Giolito’s decision on next year’s $19MM player option will be rendered a foregone conclusion before the season even begins. If he indeed picks up that player option, the team would be granted a $14MM club option for the 2026 season. Giolito could then convert that into a mutual option by pitching 140 innings in 2025.

Giolito, 29, signed his current deal in hopes of putting a rough couple years behind him and reentering the market in a stronger position. From 2022-23, the right-hander logged 346 innings but pitched to an ineffective 4.89 ERA between the White Sox, Angels and Guardians. A spike in Giolito’s home run rate contributed heavily to the downturn in performance, but he maintained a better-than-average 25.5% strikeout rate against a slightly higher-than-average 9% walk rate in that span.

The primary culprit in Giolito’s struggles was a spike in home run rate; metrics like xFIP (4.08) and SIERA (4.01) felt he was better over the past two seasons than his earned run average would indicate — but also still worse than he was in 2019-21 peak, when he fanned nearly 31% of his opponents against a stronger 8% walk rate.

Now, with Giolito’s entire season in doubt, any chances of rebounding could well be placed on hold for a year or more. At the very least, he’s in for a lengthy IL stint and will be absent to begin the season. That leaves Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock as the likeliest options to open the season in Boston’s rotation. Others on the 40-man roster include Brandon Walter, Chris Murphy and Cooper Criswell. The Sox have not yet added much in the way of veteran arms on non-roster deals to compete for jobs this spring, and they traded lefty Chris Sale to the Braves in the swap that brought second baseman Vaughn Grissom back to Boston.

A major injury to Giolito will undoubtedly fuel speculation regarding the top remaining arms on the market. Red Sox fans have clamored for Jordan Montgomery for much of the offseason. The team has spoken to him and shown interest at multiple points, including just prior to the start of spring training. The Boston connection for Montgomery is particularly strong, as his wife is doing her medical residency in the city. To this point, ownership and/or the front office have resisted meeting the 31-year-old’s asking price, but pressure to make some kind of move will only increase.

While fellow Boras Corporation clients Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman and (reportedly) Blake Snell shifted from seeking long-term deals and instead pursued opt-out laden short-term deals, all indications regarding Montgomery to this point have been that he’s still seeking a long-term deal. The Red Sox will need to weigh that ask while determining whether they want to throw more resources at a team that appears poorly positioned to contend for a postseason spot.

Montgomery wouldn’t cost the Sox a draft pick or international money, as he didn’t receive a qualifying offer, and the Sox are about $35MM from the luxury tax threshold, so Montgomery wouldn’t push them to that point either. Snell did reject a QO and would thus cost the Sox their second-best draft pick and $1MM of space in next year’s bonus pool for international amateur free agency. There are, of course, alternative options who’ve also not yet signed. Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger, for instance, are both still available and both performed reasonably well in the majors just last season.

The Opener: Red Sox, Extensions, Free Agency

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As Spring Training continues, here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on throughout the day today:

1. What’s next for the Red Sox?

Fans in Boston received terrible news yesterday, as it was reported that likely Opening Day starter Lucas Giolito is suffering from a partially torn UCL and a flexor strain, a diagnosis that could put him at risk for season-ending surgery before the 2024 campaign even begins. The likely loss of Giolito is a huge blow to the Red Sox rotation, which now figures to feature right-hander Nick Pivetta as its lone veteran arm with youngsters Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Josh Winckowski likely to fill out the rest of the rotation in some combination.

Of course, the club could improve its stock in the rotation by looking to add an arm externally. The Red Sox have been connected to both southpaw Jordan Montgomery in free agency and White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease via trade throughout the offseason, though rumors regarding Cease have died down since camp opened last month. While the addition of either of the aforementioned arms would offer Boston a bona fide front-of-the-rotation arm, other options to shore up the club’s rotation such as Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger are available more affordably and would still benefit the team.

2. Will we see more extensions this spring?

Spring Training tends to offer clubs and players a chance to negotiate extensions, before the grind of the regular season begins but after the heavy lifting of the offseason is already complete. We’ve seen a handful of extensions over the past month, with Bobby Witt Jr. and Jose Altuve both reaching agreements in early February while the likes of Mitch Keller and Zack Wheeler agreed to deals more recently.

Aside from those completed deals, there are still some rumored extension possibilities that have yet to come to fruition: The Astros have been candid about their desire to extend both third baseman Alex Bregman and outfielder Kyle Tucker, though it’s unclear how likely a deal is with either player. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are known to have had talks with both right-hander Brayan Bello and first baseman Triston Casas since camp opened last month. Will deals for any of the aforementioned players, or perhaps even a deal that hasn’t made its way into the rumor mill yet, come together before Opening Day?

3. When will deals come together for remaining mid-tier free agents?

Much of the conversation regarding free agency as of late has been dominated by Montgomery and fellow southpaw Blake Snell, the top remaining free agents on the market after fellow members of the “Boras Four” Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman landed deals in Chicago and San Francisco respectively. With that being said, they’re far from the only players still looking for work. Lorenzen, who is reportedly seeking a two-year deal, and Clevinger also remain on the starting pitching market, while Ryne Stanek remains available out of the bullpen.

On the positional side of things, even more players remain available. Center fielder Michael A. Taylor is reportedly hoping to land a deal in the same ballpark as the one-year, $10.5MM pacts Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader agreed to earlier in the offseason, while J.D. Martinez and Brandon Belt are the likely best hitters remaining on the market. In addition to that trio, the likes of Adam Duvall, Tommy Pham, Eddie Rosario and Donovan Solano all remain available on the market after turning in solid performances as regulars last year. With a dozen free agents of note remaining on the market and just three weeks until Opening Day, will all these players find homes before the start of the regular season?

Out Of Options 2024

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Every spring at MLBTR, we publish a list of players who are out of minor league options and cannot be sent to the minor leagues without first clearing outright waivers. Option status is particularly relevant as teams set their rosters prior to Opening Day. A lack of minor league options is often a key reason a certain player will make the roster over another who had a superior spring performance, and it’s a frequent factor in March trades.

The following is a list of all 40-man players throughout the league with fewer than five years of service time — players with more than five years of service can refuse an optional assignment — and no minor league options remaining. We’ve included players who have signed extensions or multi-year deals, even though they’re often less likely to be optioned.

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Mariners

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Twins Notes: Kirilloff, Santana, Buxton

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Not long after the Jorge Polanco trade cleared room in the Twins’ budget, the front office added Carlos Santana on a $5.25MM free agent pact. The veteran offers an alternative at first base to Alex Kirilloff, who started 58 games there a year ago.

Minnesota has stopped short of declaring either player the starting first baseman. However, Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic opined on Monday that Santana is likely to get the bulk of the reps on the strength of his defensive reputation. Manager Rocco Baldelli indeed suggested Tuesday that defense would be a separator in divvying up playing time.

“Whoever’s the better defensive first baseman is going to play more at first base. I don’t know any other way to put that,” Baldelli said (link via Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune). “There will be a determination when the time comes, when we put our lineups together. Both are going to play a good amount of first base, but the guy who is doing the best job for us on that side of the ball is the one who’s going to play more.”

Santana should have the edge in that regard. The 14-year big league veteran consistently rates as a quality gloveman. Defensive Runs Saved graded him 11 runs above average in more than 1150 innings a year ago. Statcast rated him as more of a solid than excellent defender, estimating he was two runs above par. Kirilloff, by contrast, rated between five and eight runs below average in only 510 first base innings by those metrics.

That’s not to say that Kirilloff’s path to a regular spot in the lineup is blocked. The left-handed hitter has more offensive upside than Santana brings to the table at this stage of his career. Kirilloff is coming off a .270/.348/.445 slash with 11 homers in 88 games. He hasn’t produced much against lefty pitching but owns a .274/.328/.440 batting line in 549 career plate appearances versus right-handers.

Kirilloff should see a good bit of action at designated hitter even if Santana operates as the primary first baseman. Minnesota also isn’t completely closing the book on Kirilloff as an outfielder. The 26-year-old tells Miller that he has continued taking outfield drills and expects to soon log game action on the grass. Kirilloff came through the minors as a corner outfielder. He hasn’t seen a ton of MLB action out there, logging 64 starts over parts of three seasons. Baldelli penciled him into the starting outfield on just 12 occasions last year.

The increased action at first base reflects both Minnesota’s outfield depth and the questions that evaluators have raised about Kirilloff’s athleticism. He’s certainly an inferior defender to Max Kepler in right field. Projected left fielder Matt Wallner has below-average range, although he has as strong an arm as any outfielder in the game.

Byron Buxton has the ability to help cover for a mediocre defender in left field, assuming he stays healthy. He’s among the sport’s best center fielders at full strength, but right knee issues kept him from logging any defensive work in 2023. The Star-Tribune’s Bobby Nightengale spoke with Buxton and hitting coach David Popkins about the difficulty in even remaining in a DH role with the amount of pain through which he had to play last season.

Buxton spoke about the mental challenge of playing through the injury, which he said frequently tightened up between at-bats and made it difficult to decelerate as a baserunner. The Twins are optimistic that he’ll be able to play center field fairly regularly in 2024, although Buxton’s injury history makes it difficult to bank on him starting 100+ games. Minnesota brought in Manuel Margot to serve as a quality fourth outfielder who can spell Buxton in center field and offers a right-handed complement to Kepler, Wallner and Kirilloff in the corners.

Latest On Michael A. Taylor

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Teams looking for an everyday center fielder in free agency are down to Michael A. Taylor. The 2021 Gold Glove winner is arguably the best unsigned outfielder overall, making it a surprise that he remains on the market into March.

Clearly, teams have yet to meet the asking price set by Taylor and his camp at ALIGND Sports Agency. While the specific ask isn’t known, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that Taylor views himself comparatively to fellow glove-first center fielders Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader. Those players signed one-year pacts for $10.5MM with the Blue Jays and Mets, respectively, earlier in the offseason.

It’s not an unreasonable comparison. Taylor is coming off a better offensive season than Bader had in 2023. He only hit .220 with a .278 on-base percentage, but he slugged a personal-high 21 home runs over 388 plate appearances for the Twins. Bader had a similarly paltry on-base mark but managed just seven homers in 344 trips to the plate between the Yankees and Reds.

Kiermaier’s offensive profile is built far more around contact skills than Taylor’s is. His .265/.322/.419 showing was slightly superior to Taylor’s batting line. By measure of wRC+, Kiermaier was four percentage points better than a league average hitter a season ago. Taylor was four points below par. While that’s not a huge gap, Kiermaier has a multi-year track record of roughly average offensive results. Taylor’s 2023 hitting production was his best in six years.

All three players are easy plus defenders in center field. Kiermaier is among the best defenders of his generation. Statcast graded him 12 runs above average in a little less than 1000 innings last season. Bader rated as +8 runs in just over 750 frames, while Taylor checked in seven runs above par in nearly 1000 innings. All three players have battled injuries and spent at least a minimal amount of time on the IL a year ago. The 29-year-old Bader has a clear age advantage over Kiermaier and Taylor, both of whom are approaching their mid-30s, although that’s not as big a factor on a one-year contract.

It’s easy to see why Taylor would put himself in the same conversation as those other players. That said, it’s difficult to imagine him landing a comparable contract at this point of the offseason. The market generally isn’t kind to middle-tier free agents who remain unsigned into Spring Training. A number of teams have indicated they’re up against the player payroll they’re prepared to carry into the upcoming season.

At points this offseason, Taylor has drawn reported interest from the Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, Angels, Pirates, Reds, Blue Jays and the incumbent Twins. A handful of those teams instead addressed the outfield in other ways. The Dodgers brought back Enrique Hernández. That signing was in conjunction with a trade shipping Manuel Margot to Minnesota, essentially ending the chance of Taylor returning to the Twin Cities. Toronto retained Kiermaier to play center field.

The Red Sox, Reds, Pirates and Angels could still benefit from a right-handed complement to their projected starting outfield. They’d probably all view Taylor as more of a fourth outfielder than an everyday center fielder, however. San Diego stands as the cleanest fit to offer him regular run in center field. Yet given their organizational payroll constraints, it’s unlikely they’re willing to offer a salary in line with the Kiermaier and Bader deals.

Braves Sign Skye Bolt To Minor League Deal

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The Braves recently signed outfielder Skye Bolt to a minor league contract. He made his Spring Training debut as a defensive replacement in today’s exhibition matchup with the Tigers.

Bolt, 30, is looking to get back to the majors for the first time since 2022. The North Carolina product appeared in parts of three big league campaigns with the two Bay Area franchises between 2019-22. Bolt saw the majority of his action with the A’s in the final of those seasons, hitting .198/.259/.330 over 42 games. He carries a .156/.205/.266 batting line over 187 big league plate appearances overall.

As one would expect, Bolt has turned in better numbers in Triple-A. The switch-hitter owns a .298/.388/.483 slash over four seasons at that level. That has mostly come in favorable hitting environments in the Pacific Coast League. He wasn’t as effective with Milwaukee’s top farm team a year ago, posting a .257/.359/.367 line in 64 contests.

Bolt has above-average speed befitting his name. He’s capable of playing all three outfield positions and has generally drawn a decent number of walks in the minors, albeit without much power. It’s very unlikely he snags an Opening Day roster spot, but he’ll add a depth option at Triple-A Gwinnett.

Atlanta’s starting outfield of Jarred Kelenic, Michael Harris II and Ronald Acuña Jr. is entrenched, yet their top depth options are light on MLB experience. Forrest Wall and J.P. Martínez, the other outfielders on the 40-man roster, have combined for 32 big league games. The Braves have added a handful of non-roster players to potentially push for a fourth outfield role. Leury García, Jordan Luplow, Eli White, Luis Liberato and Luke Williams are all in big league camp.

Paul Skenes Won’t Make Pirates’ Opening Day Roster

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Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes won’t make the Opening Day roster, with Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette relaying that general manager Ben Cherington has already informed the righty. The young hurler will remain in big league camp for the time being but will start the season in the minor leagues.

“I’ve thrown 6 2/3 innings in pro ball,” Skenes said of the situation, per Mackey. “It’s just kind of how it goes. [Pirates general manager Ben Cherington] said it would be unprecedented if I started the year in the big leagues. Not that I don’t think I can do it, but I understand it.”

Though it was a long shot, there was an argument for Skenes cracking the big leagues out of camp this year. The argument against it is simple as he’s still just 21 years old, turning 22 in May, and only just entered the professional ranks last year. But on the other hand, he’s dominated everywhere he’s pitched and has been built up to something close to a starter’s workload.

With Louisiana State last year, Skenes tossed 122 2/3 innings over 19 starts. He posted an earned run average of 1.69 in that time, striking out 45.2% of batters faced while giving out walks at just a 4.3% clip. Those results led the Bucs to take him first overall last year, after which they put him into five minor league games at the Complex League, Single-A and then Double-A. He faced 40 batters overall and struck out 10 while giving out just two walks.

Given the quality and quantity of that work, it wouldn’t have been outlandish to think he could break camp right now and toss 160 innings or so out of the Pittsburgh rotation. That’s especially true when considering the current rotation, with is front by Mitch Keller but has plenty of uncertainty beyond that.

The club added Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales to be veteran stabilizers in the middle or the rotation, but there’s no guarantee they can provide that kind of service. Pérez got bumped from the Rangers’ rotation last year and finished the year with a 4.98 ERA as a starter. Gonzales only made 10 starts and logged 50 innings due to a nerve issue in his left forearm which required surgery. Beyond that, the other options are fairly unproven young guys like Bailey Falter, Luis Ortiz, Roansy Contreras or Quinn Priester. No one in that quartet has reached 200 big league innings pitched nor do any of them have an ERA below 4.73.

Despite that potential path to a role for Skenes, the club will keep him in the minor for now. But if he is putting up zeroes in the minors while the results in the majors are lacking, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him up at some point this summer. The club will potentially be getting JT Brubaker and Mike Burrows back midseason, as both underwent Tommy John surgery early in 2023, but Skenes could still seem like one of the five best options in the coming months.

When Skenes does finally get the call, it could have an impact for both him and the club. If he misses the first few weeks of the season, he won’t be able to earn a full year of service time here in 2024, at least not the traditional way. To combat service time manipulation, the current collective bargaining agreement allows a player to earn a full year of service regardless of when they were called up if they have less than 60 days of MLB service coming into the season, placed on at least two preseason Top 100 prospect lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline and then finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year balloting. Each of those three prospect lists have Skenes in the top 10, so he would certainly qualify if he were called up midseason but with enough time to get into the top two of the ROY voting.

Not getting a full year of service time here in 2024 would have an impact on his trajectory towards free agency and potentially to arbitration as well. Players need six full years of service to become free agents, so Skenes would be slated for the open market after 2029 if he broke camp this year and stayed up for good. If he falls short of one year, then his potential free agency would be pushed back a year to after 2030.

In terms of arbitration, players need three full years for guaranteed qualification but can get in with less. Of the players between two and three years of service each year, the 22% with the most service time get to qualify early. The “Super Two” line oscillates from year to year based on who is in that 22% category. Going back to 2009, the line has gone as high as 2.146 and as low as 2.115, with a full year being 172 days. That means that Skenes has a chance to qualify for arbitration after 2026 even if he isn’t called up until a couple of months into this year.

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