Matt Chapman Turned Down Prior Extension Offer From Blue Jays
The Blue Jays made an attempt at extending Matt Chapman before he reached free agency, TSN’s Scott Mitchell reports, but Chapman rejected Toronto’s offer. It isn’t known exactly when the Jays made the offer or how much was on the table, though Mitchell indicates that Chapman passed on more than $100MM over the span of a four- or five-year contract.
This is notably less than the six-year, $150MM deal that MLB Trade Rumors is predicting for Chapman, who ranked seventh on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents. With Shohei Ohtani as a DH-only player, Cody Bellinger (ranked #2) and Chapman are the only true position players ranked within the top 11 on MLBTR’s list, amidst a free agent class that is heavy on pitching.
The relative lack of position-player depth on the market is to Chapman’s benefit after something of a shaky season. Chapman generated 3.5 fWAR largely on the strength another outstanding defensive performance, as Chapman earned the fourth Gold Glove of his career. His .240/.330/.424 slash line and 17 homers over 581 plate appearances resulted in an above-average 110 wRC+, though Chapman struggled badly at the plate after winning AL Player Of The Month honors in April, and a finger injury later in the season contributed in part to those struggles.
However, Chapman’s hard-contact numbers were among the best of any player in baseball. This has been a trend throughout much of Chapman’s career, and 2023 also continued his track record of above-average walk rates and a lot of strikeouts. Since Chapman was on a hot streak at the plate in July and early August, agent Scott Boras will surely point to the finger injury as the major culprit for the offensive downturn, arguing that a healthy Chapman will post better numbers going forward….and thus be worthy of a heftier contract.
It is relatively rare to see top-tier free agents like Chapman accept extension offers so close to free agency, and very rare to see a Boras client pass up a chance at testing the open market. Mitchell feels that the Blue Jays might still be candidates to re-sign Chapman, but perhaps only in a situation where Chapman circles back if he can’t find a larger deal, rather than a case of the Jays increasing their offer.
Since Chapman will almost surely reject the one-year, $20.325MM qualifying offer before today’s deadline, the Blue Jays stand to recoup an extra draft pick if Chapman signs elsewhere. This compensatory pick would fall between the fourth and fifth rounds of the 2024 draft, since Toronto surpassed the luxury tax threshold in 2023. The Jays are looking for multiple position players whether or not Chapman returns, though obviously retaining the third baseman would address one major hole in the lineup.
Reds Seen As Increasingly Likely To Trade Jonathan India
Reds second baseman Jonathan India, the 2021 National League Rookie of the Year, saw his name pop up on the rumor circuit over the summer and has already been an oft-cited trade candidate in the early stages of the offseason. Recent reports from Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Jeff Passan of ESPN do little to quell the belief that the 26-year-old could change hands this winter. Nightengale wrote over the weekend that Cincinnati is “expected” to trade India this offseason, while Passan writes this morning that the Reds have been suggesting to potential trade partners that India is the “odd man out” in their glut of infielders.
Indeed, the Reds have an enviable crop of young talent on the dirt. Beyond India, they saw former first-round pick Matt McLain, top prospect Elly De La Cruz and trade acquisitions Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte and Christian Encarnacion-Strand all log time in the big leagues.
McLain was the most impressive of the bunch, hitting .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers and 14 steals in 403 trips to the plate. De La Cruz faded after a hot start but still posted a .235/.300/.410 line with 13 homers and a whopping 35 steals in just 98 games — all while recording intriguing batted-ball metrics per Statcast and showing off his elite speed. Steer, meanwhile, bounced between first base, second base, third base and the outfield corners while delivering a .271/.356/.464 output and 23 homers. Encarnacion-Strand (.270/.328/.477, 13 homers in 241 plate appearances) and Marte (.316/.366/.456 in 123 plate appearances) saw less time than the others but acquitted themselves nicely in their MLB debuts.
It’s an immensely talented quintet — one with plenty of defensive versatility. It seems likely that Encarnacion-Strand will settle in at first base and designated hitter, and Steer clearly enjoyed success at the plate in a nomadic, jack-of-all-trades role (even if he graded as a below-average defender at all five positions). Each of De La Cruz, Marte and McLain can handle shortstop, third base or second base. De La Cruz saw the most time at shortstop of the bunch but also posted lesser defensive grades than McLain. The Reds can tinker with the exact alignment in spring training, but regardless of who’s manning which position, it’s hard not to be bullish on Cincinnati’s emerging core of young infielders.
Given that wealth of talent, it becomes easier to see how India could be the odd man out. He’s yet to replicate his excellent showing in that aforementioned Rookie of the Year campaign, when he batted .269/.376/.459 with 21 home runs, 23 doubles, 12 steals and an 11.3% walk rate. He’s since turned in a .246/.333/.394 batting line in 960 plate appearances, showing diminished power and a walk rate about three percentage points lower than his rookie mark. Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average both cast him as a poor defender at his position.
Due to his former draft status (fifth overall in 2018), prospect pedigree and that Rookie of the Year showing, many fans have speculated that India could be used to help the Reds acquire an upgrade for the front portion of their rotation. However, given India’s struggles with the glove and (over the past two seasons) at the plate, it doesn’t seem all that likely that he’d command a strong rotation piece on his own — or even as the headliner in a package also including lesser prospects.
India is entering his first arbitration season, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $3.7MM in 2024, and remains controllable for another three seasons. Those factors, plus his age, are perhaps the Reds’ strongest selling points in trade talks. That said, India feels more like a buy-low candidate than many onlookers might expect for someone who looked like a Reds building block just two years ago. The absolute dearth of quality infield options on the free agent market will play to the Reds’ benefit in drumming up interest, but it seems unlikely that India will fetch them a major upgrade to the starting rotation.
MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald and I discussed India’s potential trade candidacy (among many other topics) on the upcoming episode of the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, and just this past weekend MLBTR’s Nick Deeds took a look at some potential landing spots for India in the event that the Reds ultimately do move him. India placed 11th on MLBTR’s list of the top 25 offseason trade candidates just yesterday.
Padres Exploring Scott Barlow Trades
The Padres are “actively trying to move” right-hander Scott Barlow in trade talks with other teams, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. The arbitration-eligible Barlow is projected to earn $7.1MM in 2024, and with Friday’s non-tender deadline looming, the Friars are seeing what they can get for the reliever before having to make a decision on his roster status.
Barlow didn’t make MLBTR’s recent list of non-tender candidates, though it stands to reason that San Diego might consider cutting the 30-year-old entirely if they can’t find an acceptable trade. While losing Barlow for nothing is obviously not an ideal outcome for the team, it would represent some noteworthy savings for a Padres club that is reportedly aiming to get their payroll to around the $200MM range in 2024, down from $249MM last season. The $7.1MM price point could also be high for other teams, yet non-tendering Barlow altogether is still a somewhat unlikely outcome given the probable interest in his services, not to mention the fact that Padres could still shop him after Friday.
This will be Barlow’s third and final trip through the arbitration process before hitting free agency next winter, and the righty’s salaries have been elevated by the saves accumulated when he was the Royals’ closer in 2021-22. Barlow posted a 2.30 ERA, 40 saves (in 50 chances), a 28.2% strikeout rate, and 8.4% walk rate over 148 2/3 innings in those two seasons, earning a reputation as one of baseball’s more underrated relievers. It also made him a popular trade candidate, though Barlow wasn’t actually dealt until Kansas City sent him to San Diego at the last trade deadline, and a case can be made that the Royals didn’t sell at the high point of Barlow’s value.
Over 38 2/3 innings with K.C. in 2023, Barlow’s ERA spiked to 5.35, in large part due to a walk rate that surged to 12.5%. The downturn cost Barlow his closer’s job, and the Padres’ trade package of pitching prospects Jesus Rios and Henry Williams is certainly less than what the Royals would’ve received had they moved Barlow last offseason. The move to San Diego seemed to turn Barlow’s fortunes around, as he cut back on the walks and delivered a 3.07 ERA over 29 1/3 frames in a Friars uniform.
All in all, Barlow finished with a 4.37 ERA over 68 total innings in 2023, with a 3.94 SIERA and a pretty impressive overall set of Statcast numbers, except for his mediocre walk rate. Concerns over his control still exist, and Barlow’s average fastball velocity has dropped from 95.4mph in 2021 to 93.1mph in 2023, though his straight four-seamer has become only his third-most prominent pitch over the last two seasons. Still, teams eager for bullpen help could certainly have interest in Barlow’s services, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see a trade completed prior to Friday.
If Barlow was moved, of course, it would leave another hole in the Padres’ bullpen. Josh Hader, Nick Martinez, and Luis Garcia are all free agents, leaving Robert Suarez as the top closing option and Barlow as the top candidate for set-up work. The Padres could perhaps pivot to exploring only lower-cost options on the reliever market, though that puts extra pressure on the front office to make up those lost innings with some hidden-gem type of acquisitions.
The Opener: Rule 5 Protection Deadline, QO Deadline, Manager of the Year
As we prepare for one of the first major deadlines of the offseason, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Rule 5 draft protection deadline:
This evening marks one of several deadlines in the early part of the offseason: the deadline for protecting prospects from next month’s Rule 5 draft. Though the Rule 5 draft won’t take place until the Winter Meetings, today at 5pm CT is the deadline by which teams must add prospects they wish to protect from the draft to their 40-man rosters. The deadline typically sparks plenty of movement as teams look to clear space on their 40-man rosters for prospects in need of protections, and MLB Network’s Jon Morosi suggests that this year will be no different, reporting that trade talks are picking up all around baseball in advance of today’s deadline.
2. Qualifying Offer deadline:
The Rule 5 draft protection deadline isn’t the only deadline scheduled for today, however. At 3pm CT this afternoon, the seven players who received qualifying offers earlier in the offseason will have to decide whether to accept the one-year, $20.35MM offer or reject it and test the open market. All seven players — Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, Matt Chapman, Josh Hader, and Sonny Gray — are expected to decline the QO and test free agency. Players that do so will attached to draft pick compensation, providing their previous team with an outgoing draft pick should they sign elsewhere while forcing their new club to give up draft capital and international bonus pool space. The details on what teams stand to lose or gain from the signing of qualified free agents were covered by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk last month.
3. Manager of the Year announced:
Awards season around MLB continues at 5pm CT this evening with the AL and NL Manager of the Year awards set to be announced. In the AL, Bruce Bochy of the Rangers, Kevin Cash of the Rays, and Brandon Hyde of the Orioles are the three finalists for the award. Cash skippered the Rays to a 99-win season that saw them win their first 13 games of the season, tying the modern record, while Hyde and Bochy both guided their clubs to a postseason appearance despite the Orioles and Rangers both entering the season expected to be little more than fringe contenders. It would be Hyde’s first time winning the award, while Cash has won the award twice previously. Bochy, meanwhile, has never won in the AL but won in the NL with the Padres back in 1996.
Meanwhile, the NL features a relatively unusual bit of drama; alongside Brian Snitker of the Braves and Skip Schumaker of the Marlins, Craig Counsell is nominated for the award for his work with the Brewers this season despite having departed the organization for the division rival Cubs last week. For all his accolades as one of the league’s finest managers, Counsell has never won a Manager of the Year award. Schumaker, of course, hasn’t either as a rookie skipper who just concluded his first season in the role. Snitker, on the other hand, won the award previously in 2018. His work with the Braves that year led him to finish just ahead of Counsell, who was the runner-up for the award.
Top 25 Offseason Trade Candidates
While the offseason has gotten rolling, trade season hasn’t quite arrived. The Tigers acquired Mark Canha from Milwaukee in the biggest swap of the first couple weeks. Otherwise, the GM Meetings simply served to set the stage for future transactions.
That’ll surely involve some notable trades. Unlike the summer deadline, projecting which players will change hands is difficult at this stage of the offseason. Aside from the A’s, there aren’t any teams clearly in rebuild mode. Clubs like the Rockies, Royals, White Sox, Nationals and Angels have uphill paths to contention, yet none has indicated they’re prepared to punt on the 2024 season entirely.
The Padres, Twins, Rays, Brewers and Guardians are all aiming to contend but have questions about their payroll. That’s standard operating procedure for Tampa Bay, Milwaukee and Cleveland. San Diego and, to a lesser extent, Minnesota have shown a willingness to spend in recent years but are scaling back — in both cases, likely tied to their uncertain local television rights contracts.
That informs the offseason trade landscape, which is headlined by a few stars deep into their arbitration windows. Without many clear rebuilders, it’s possible we see more swaps of big leaguers at positions of need between teams that expect to compete.
Before we get to the list, a note on methodology. This isn’t a strict ranking of players’ trade value, nor is it solely about likelihood of being moved. We’re trying to balance both of those things, an inherently subjective exercise. All projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.
1. Juan Soto, LF, Padres
Other than Shohei Ohtani’s free agency, there may be no bigger story of the offseason than Soto’s future in San Diego. He is entering his final year of club control, projected for a $33MM salary that would be the highest ever for an arbitration-eligible player. The Padres are scaling back payroll, perhaps as much as $50MM. They need multiple starting pitchers and could stand to upgrade at first base and/or designated hitter.
Trading Soto would allow the Friars to recoup MLB-ready talent while clearing significant spending room for multiple smaller additions. It would also be a devastating blow to the lineup. Soto overcame a relatively slow start (by his standards) to hit .275/.410/.519 with 35 home runs this year. The Padres are still motivated to win in the short term. Barring what would be a stunning run at Ohtani, they’re not going to acquire anyone better than Soto.
President of baseball operations A.J. Preller continues to maintain they’ll explore a long-term deal. There’s nothing to suggest an extension is particularly likely. Soto rejected a $440MM offer from the Nationals before he was traded at the 2022 deadline. The price would only be higher now that he’s a year and a half closer to free agency. In the absence of an extension or a definitive declaration that Soto is off the trade market, speculation will linger. Alden González of ESPN wrote last week that many throughout the industry believe the three-time All-Star will be available.
2. Corbin Burnes, SP, Brewers
3. Willy Adames, SS, Brewers
Burnes and Adames are tied together with good reason. They’re each one year from the open market and projected for a noteworthy arbitration salary — $15.1MM for Burnes, $12.4MM for Adames. Milwaukee is reportedly open to offers on the majority of the roster.
A former Cy Young winner, Burnes may be the best pitcher available in trade. The right-hander posted a sub-3.00 ERA each season from 2020-22. His 3.39 mark across 193 2/3 innings this past season wasn’t quite so dominant but is still high-end production. Burnes struck out just under 26% of opposing hitters. While his lowest mark since his rookie season, that’s still an above-average figure.
Adames is coming off a less impressive year. The 28-year-old hit .217/.310/.407 through 638 trips to the plate. That’s slightly below-average offense, although he still connected on 24 home runs. Adames is an excellent defensive shortstop with plus power in an offseason where there are essentially no free agent shortstops of note. Even with a mediocre on-base percentage, he’d generate plenty of interest.
4. Shane Bieber, SP, Guardians
Develop high-end starting pitching, trade a top starter as they become more expensive, replace him with talented younger arms. The Guardians have trodden this path with Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco. Bieber, one year from free agency with a projected $12.2MM salary, could be next.
Cleveland has the likes of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill (himself a potential trade candidate) as rotation options. While Bieber is no longer a Cy Young caliber pitcher, he turned in a 3.80 ERA with a below-average but serviceable 20.1% strikeout rate over 21 starts this past season. Bieber lost a good chunk of the second half to elbow inflammation but returned to make two appearances in late September.
5. Tyler Glasnow, SP, Rays
The Rays signed Glasnow to an extension in August 2022 when he was completing his rehab from Tommy John surgery. The big right-hander is set to make $25MM next season, the largest single-year salary in franchise history. That naturally leads to questions about whether the Rays are prepared to meet that figure, particularly in an offseason where they have a loaded arbitration class.
If they made him available — and he’s already surfaced in rumors — Glasnow would be a very appealing target. He was quite good this year, working to a 3.53 ERA while striking out more than a third of opponents over 21 starts. An oblique strain cost him the first two months of the season, but he avoided the injured list thereafter. He’s a year away from free agency, making another extension with Tampa Bay appear unlikely. Yet dealing him would represent a tough blow to the Rays’ chances of competing in 2024. They’re already down Shane McClanahan for the entire season and will be without Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen for at least a good portion of the year. While they’d likely bring back some kind of MLB help as part of a Glasnow trade return, the rotation depth could be a problem.
6. Dylan Cease, SP, White Sox
Cease had a disappointing follow-up to his Cy Young runner-up campaign. He allowed a 4.58 ERA over 177 innings this past season. That’s nearly two and a half runs higher than his sparkling 2.20 mark of the prior year. As is often the case, his true talent probably lies somewhere in the middle. Cease still missed plenty of bats — 27.3% strikeout rate, 13.6% swinging strike percentage — while issuing a few more walks than ideal. His fastball averaged 95.6 MPH, down a tick from the preceding season.
The right-hander has shown the ability to pitch at an ace-caliber level. He is two seasons from free agency and projected for an $8.8MM arbitration salary, making him more affordable than the other high-end starting pitchers near the top of this list. The extra year of control probably gives him more trade value than any of Burnes, Bieber or Glasnow. It also makes him less likely to be traded this offseason.
First-year GM Chris Getz has suggested no one on the roster is truly untouchable, an understandable approach for a team that just lost 101 games. Neither owner Jerry Reinsdorf nor Getz has called this a rebuild, though. Any slim hopes the White Sox may have of competing in 2024 would be dashed by trading Cease, the only above-average starting pitcher on the roster.
7. Alex Verdugo, RF, Red Sox
Verdugo’s name has been floated in trade rumors for a few seasons. The Red Sox have held onto him thus far. They have a new baseball operations leader in Craig Breslow, who has acknowledged the team has gotten early calls on the left-handed hitting outfielder. Jarren Duran and Masataka Yoshida also hit from the left side. Dealing Verdugo could free some at-bats for a right-handed addition while perhaps bringing in immediate help for the pitching staff or at second base.
MLBTR projects Verdugo for a $9.2MM salary in his final season of arbitration. He’s coming off another league-average offensive showing, when he hit .264/.324/.421 with 13 home runs through 602 plate appearances. Verdugo hasn’t become the All-Star player the Sox envisioned when building the Mookie Betts return around him. He’s a solid regular, a high-contact hitter who rates as a decent defender in right field.
8. Trent Grisham, CF, Padres
9. Ha-Seong Kim, 2B, Padres
If the Padres hold Soto, dealing Grisham and/or Kim could be an alternative means of trimming payroll. While neither is going to make anywhere near Soto money in 2024, they’re each on mid-level salaries of note. Grisham is projected for a $4.9MM salary in his second-to-last season of arbitration. Kim is slated for an $8MM salary and will be due a $2MM buyout on a 2025 mutual option at season’s end. He’ll be a free agent next winter.
Grisham has the extra year of control but is the worse player. He draws plenty of walks but has hit below the Mendoza line in two straight seasons. He’s coming off a .198/.315/.352 line over 555 plate appearances. The appeal is on the other side of the ball. Grisham is an above-average defensive center fielder, keeping him as a low-end regular even if he’s best suited for the bottom of a lineup. San Diego could kick Fernando Tatis Jr. over to center field if they dealt Grisham, freeing right field for a bigger offensive threat than Grisham provides.
It’s a similar story with Kim. Dealing him would free Jake Cronenworth to move back to second base, opening first base for a better hitter. It’d be tough to replace Kim’s overall production, though. He’s a plus defender at multiple infield spots. He hit .260/.351/.398 with 17 home runs and stole 38 bases in 152 games. Trading Kim isn’t as damaging to the lineup as a Soto deal would be, but it’d be tougher than parting with Grisham.
10. Gleyber Torres, 2B, Yankees
Another player one year from free agency, Torres is projected for a $15.3MM salary in his last arbitration season. That’s below his market value but a notable figure for a bat-first second baseman — a general profile that the league has devalued in recent years. Torres was New York’s second-best offensive player in 2023, hitting .273/.347/.453 with 25 homers through 672 trips to the plate.
Even if they’re not interested in an extension, New York could hold Torres for his final season of club control. They’re already light on consistent hitting beyond Aaron Judge. On the surface, trading their second-best hitter seems counterintuitive. The big question is whether the front office believes Oswald Peraza is capable of stepping into an everyday second base role in 2024. If they feel the 23-year-old is ready, trading Torres to clear spending room while bringing back outfield or pitching help makes sense.
11. Jonathan India, 2B, Reds
The Reds’ infield surplus has fueled trade speculation on India back to the deadline. Cincinnati didn’t seem inclined to make that move midseason, pointing to India’s role as a clubhouse leader. While that’s certainly still a factor, he didn’t hit well down the stretch and finished the year with a middling .244/.338/.407 batting line. He’s a well below-average keystone defender.
There’s an argument the Reds are better off relying on an up-the-middle tandem of Matt McLain and either Noelvi Marte or Elly De La Cruz. Perhaps the offseason is a better time to consider moving India for a back-end starter. The former Rookie of the Year is projected for a $3.7MM salary and has three seasons of remaining arbitration control.
12. Eloy Jiménez, DH, White Sox
Jiménez no longer looks like a core piece for the White Sox. Various injuries have kept him off the field throughout his big league tenure. He only has two seasons of 100+ games and hasn’t gotten to 500 plate appearances since his 2019 rookie year. Jiménez was still an excellent hitter when healthy as recently as 2022, when he ran a .295/.358/.500 line over 84 games. His production fell this year, as he posted a .272/.317/.441 slash with 18 homers over 489 trips to the dish.
That’s not especially imposing for a player who’s best suited at DH. Yet Jiménez has shown greater offensive upside that isn’t matched by many in this winter’s free agent class. If the Sox are prepared to move on, another team could look to buy low. He’ll make a $13MM salary next year, the final guaranteed season of his contract. He’s guaranteed a $3MM buyout on a $16.5MM club option for 2025 and the deal contains an $18.5MM team option for the ’26 campaign.
13. Max Kepler, RF, Twins
14. Jorge Polanco, 2B, Twins
Minnesota president of baseball operations Derek Falvey has confirmed the team is paring back payroll. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reported the organization could end in the $125-140MM range. At the moment, they have around $120MM in projected spending.
The Twins have a few ways to clear room. Trading either Kepler or Polanco would accomplish that. The former is making $10MM, while the latter is playing on a $10.5MM deal. Kepler will be a free agent after next season; Polanco’s contract has a $12.5MM team option for 2025 that comes with a $750K buyout.
They’re each good players. Kepler is a plus defender in right field who hit .260/.332/.484 with 24 homers this year. Polanco was limited to 80 games but ran a .255/.335/.454 showing. He’s one of the sport’s better offensive second basemen and saw some third base action for Minnesota late in the year. The Twins have Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach as left-handed hitting corner outfield options. They’re deeper on the infield, where Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer (another trade candidate) are possibilities at second/third base behind starters Edouard Julien and Royce Lewis. Top prospect Brooks Lee, the No. 8 overall pick in 2022, isn’t far from MLB readiness. The Twins could look to move Kepler or Polanco for rotation depth or to bring in a righty bat to balance the lineup.
15. Randy Arozarena, LF, Rays
Arozarena hasn’t been the subject of the same level of trade speculation as Glasnow has. There’s an argument the Rays should be more willing to move the All-Star outfielder if they’re looking to create payroll room. Tampa Bay has greater depth in the outfield than they do on their injury-riddled pitching staff. Josh Lowe, Jose Siri, Harold Ramírez, Luke Raley and Manuel Margot are all on hand. (Margot has come up in trade rumors as well.)
None of those players is as good as Arozarena. Trading star players for younger talent is familiar territory for the Tampa Bay front office though. Arozarena is projected for a $9MM arbitration salary and controllable for three seasons. He’d have significant trade value if the Rays were to consider moving him.
16. Mariners SP
We initially had Bryan Woo in this spot. It could just as easily have been Bryce Miller or Emerson Hancock, so we’ll cheat and just mention the Seattle rotation in general. They’re almost certainly not going to trade George Kirby. It’d take a lot to pry away Logan Gilbert. Moving any of Woo, Miller or Hancock could be more appealing for a front office that is looking for ways to add long-term offensive upside.
None of that trio has even reached one year of major league service. Hancock only has three big league starts under his belt. Miller and Woo spent more time in the rotation this year, starting 25 and 18 games respectively. They both turned in mid-rotation results. Other clubs probably have differing opinions on which right-hander they prefer. (The Mariners likely have their own slight preferences.) They’d all have significant value if president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto decided to move one for a bat.
17. Dylan Carlson, CF, Cardinals
It was a bit of a surprise that Carlson didn’t change hands over the summer. Various reports suggested the Cards were making him available as they looked for ways to add a controllable starter. It didn’t happen, but the same logic applies this winter.
Carlson has been surpassed by Lars Nootbaar as the starting center fielder. St. Louis needs multiple starting pitchers and will likely bring in at least one via trade. Carlson probably has less value than he did before the deadline. Not only did he finish with a mediocre .219/.318/.333 batting line, he underwent season-ending surgery on his left ankle in September. There’d nevertheless be teams willing to take a shot on a former top prospect who looked like an average or better center fielder 12 months ago. Carlson is projected for a modest $1.8MM salary and has three years of arbitration control.
18. Paul Blackburn, SP, A’s
Blackburn is arguably the most desirable realistic trade candidate on the Oakland roster. The A’s have torn things to the studs. They’re unlikely to compete within the two remaining years of Blackburn’s arbitration window. The right-hander (30 next month) worked to a 4.43 ERA with a decent 22.4% strikeout rate over 103 2/3 innings this past season. He’s projected for a $3.2MM salary. A Blackburn trade isn’t going to be an offseason defining move, but he has a good chance to be flipped to a contender seeking affordable back-end starting pitching.
19. Alek Manoah, SP, Blue Jays
Perhaps no player had a more disappointing 2023 performance than Manoah. Within one season, he went from Cy Young finalist to essentially unplayable. The right-hander pitched to a 5.87 ERA over 19 big league outings. His walks more than doubled while his strikeouts fell from 22.9% to a modest 19% clip. He lost his spot in the Toronto rotation and was eventually demoted to the minors. Manoah never pitched in Triple-A and received an injection in his throwing shoulder at the end of the season.
How will the Jays proceed after that disastrous year? General manager Ross Atkins said last week the team would give him “a strong leg up” on the #5 spot in the rotation. The Jays aren’t broadcasting a desire to trade him, although they wouldn’t be doing themselves any favors if they declared they were ready to move on. Dealing Manoah to bring in a lower upside but higher floor pitcher wouldn’t be a surprise with the Jays firmly in win-now mode. The former first-round pick is controllable for four more seasons and won’t reach arbitration until next winter.
20. Brandon Drury, 2B, Angels
The Halos signed Drury to a two-year free agent deal last winter. The righty-hitting infielder turned in a nice season, connecting on 26 home runs with a .262/.306/.497 line across 523 plate appearances. Next year’s $8.5MM salary looks like strong value, particularly in an offseason where the supply of up-the-middle players is thin. The Angels probably aren’t kicking off a rebuild. They could do a shorter-term retool if Ohtani walks, or they could simply look to move Drury for pitching while turning second base to Luis Rengifo and/or an external acquisition.
21. Brendan Donovan, 2B, Cardinals
Donovan is a longer shot trade possibility if the Cards move a controllable hitter for starting pitching. He’s more valuable than Carlson and less likely to be on the move. At the same time, he’d net a clearer rotation upgrade if St. Louis were to give him up — likely turning the middle infield over to a combination of Tommy Edman, Nolan Gorman and Masyn Winn in that scenario.
The 26-year-old hit .284/.365/.422 with 11 homers through 371 plate appearances this past season. A flexor tendon injury pushed him to designated hitter and eventually required surgery that ended his year a couple months early. He’s expected back for Spring Training. If healthy, Donovan brings excellent contact skills and a solid plate approach. He’s a multi-positional defender who can play any of the corners in addition to second base. Donovan has four years of remaining control and won’t get to arbitration until next offseason.
22. Christopher Morel, DH, Cubs
Morel is likely to be a divisive player around the league. He has huge raw power and connected on 26 home runs while slugging .508 in 107 games for the Cubs. The right-handed hitter owns a .241/.311/.471 line in just over 850 MLB plate appearances over the past two seasons. When he’s hot, he can carry a lineup.
He also strikes out more than 30% of the time and doesn’t have a defensive fit. Morel has played all three outfield spots and each of second base, third base and shortstop in the majors. He hasn’t rated well anywhere. The Cubs used him mostly at designated hitter this year and have suggested they’ll get him first base run in 2024. That’s not a great fit for a plus runner with top-of-the-scale arm strength, yet Morel hasn’t shown himself capable of handling more important positions on a regular basis.
How teams project Morel defensively could impact both whether he’s traded and what kind of return the Cubs could receive. As a first baseman or DH, he’s a fringe regular with a statistical profile that’d paint him as a lumbering slugger as opposed to a dynamic athlete. If another team feels he can hold his own at second base or in center field, he becomes far more desirable. The Cubs have no urgency to trade him. Morel is controllable through 2028 and won’t reach arbitration for at least another season. Yet president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has alluded to the possibility of a deal, saying last week that “another team might be able to put him [at second base],” where the Cubs have Nico Hoerner.
23. Christian Vázquez, C, Twins
Trading Vázquez is another route Minnesota could consider to clear money. The Twins signed the veteran catcher to a three-year, $30MM free agent deal last offseason. He had a tough first season in Minneapolis, limping to a .223/.280/.318 line over 355 plate appearances — albeit with his typical brand of excellent defense. Ryan Jeffers easily surpassed him as the #1 option on the depth chart. A $10MM per year backup catcher is a luxury for a team trying to trim salary.
Minnesota likely wouldn’t be able to offload the entire deal, but they could try to shed around half the money or take on a smaller contract in return. Vázquez’s year wasn’t much worse than a season that got Omar Narváez two years and $15MM last winter, while Tucker Barnhart secured a two-year, $6.5MM guarantee despite a much lesser offensive track record.
24. Luis Robert Jr., CF, White Sox
Robert has the most trade value of any player on this list. He may also be the least likely to move. Last week, Getz called him a franchise building block and noted he had no plans to proactively shop Robert even as he left open the possibility of listening to offers on anyone.
It’s not hard to understand why. Robert’s an elite defensive center fielder who connected on 38 home runs while hitting .264/.315/.542. It was the first time he stayed healthy for a 162-game schedule. The result was a season that’ll get him down-ballot MVP support. Robert is a prime-aged superstar and, unlike Soto or Burnes, he’s nowhere near free agency. He’ll make $12.5MM next year, $15MM in 2025 and is controllable via $20MM team options for 2026-27. Trading Robert would signify a complete teardown that the Sox probably don’t want. Yet the haul would be astronomical if they decided to go in that direction.
25. Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets
Alonso was the subject of early offseason trade speculation. With the Mets projecting a less active offseason and placing a priority on 2025, it wasn’t out of the question he could be available. Alonso is projected for a $22MM arbitration salary and will be a free agent after next year.
New York has subsequently walked back some of their statements about a possible retool. They’re still aiming to compete in ’24 even if they’re signaling they won’t blow away the top of the free agent market. First-year president of baseball operations David Stearns has twice publicly said he anticipates Alonso being the Opening Day first baseman in Queens. That won’t stop teams from trying, but an offseason deal looks decidedly unlikely.
Others Of Note
A’s: Seth Brown
Braves: Vaughn Grissom
Brewers: Adrian Houser, Devin Williams, Brandon Woodruff
Cardinals: Alec Burleson, Tommy Edman, Nolan Gorman, Tyler O’Neill
Giants: J.D. Davis, Mike Yastrzemski
Guardians: Josh Naylor, Cal Quantrill
Mariners: Ty France
Marlins: Josh Bell
Mets: Jeff McNeil
Nationals: Hunter Harvey, Lane Thomas
Orioles: Anthony Santander
Padres: Scott Barlow
Phillies: Nick Castellanos
Rays: Manuel Margot, Harold Ramírez
Red Sox: Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, Nick Pivetta
Rockies: Brendan Rodgers
Royals: Salvador Perez
Tigers: Spencer Turnbull
Twins: Kyle Farmer
Angels To Hire Bo Porter As First Base Coach
The Angels are hiring Bo Porter as their first base coach, tweets Britt Ghiroli of the Athletic. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported this afternoon that the veteran coach was a candidate to join Ron Washington’s staff.
Porter, 51, played parts of three seasons in the majors around the turn of the century. He has spent the better part of the last two decades in coaching or administrative roles. Porter logged time on MLB staffs in Florida, Arizona and Washington before he was tabbed as manager of the Astros in September 2012. He was at the helm in Houston for just under two seasons.
At the time, the Astros were near the nadir of the rebuild that eventually produced the core of their success of the past eight years. Houston went 110-190 (36.7% win percentage) before Porter was fired. He’d go on to join the Braves as third base coach the following season. Porter held that role until Atlanta hired Washington, a move that bumped Porter into the front office. He subsequently spent time in broadcasting and has consulted with MLB in coaching development.
Porter now jumps back onto an MLB staff, where he’ll join the likes of Ryan Goins and Eric Young. Ghiroli reports that Porter had interviewed for the managerial job before the Halos tabbed Washington.
Big Hype Prospects: Manzardo, Tiedemann, Jobe, Scott, DeLauter
The Arizona Fall League has concluded, putting a final wrap on the 2023 season. The Surprise Saguaros took home the hardware – not that that means anything to most readers. Jakob Marsee managed to sneak by Offensive Player of the Year James Triantos for the top OPS and MVP honors. Liam Hicks took home the batting title. Twin sluggers Kala’i Rosario and Aaron Sabato shared the home run title. Ricky Tiedemann won the AFL Pitcher of the Year award over Davis Daniel. Additional awards can be viewed here.
Listed stats are from the AFL.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Kyle Manzardo, 23, 1B, CLE
101 PA, 6 HR, .272/.340/.565
Manzardo finished the campaign on a strong note. He reached base three times in the championship game and homered twice in the semi-final while leading a nine-run comeback. The 2023 season represented a small step back in Manzardo’s prospect status. Due to an extreme fly ball approach, he struggled to reach base on balls in play. While no slouch in the power department, his exit velocities hovered around league average. His peripherals show evidence of a post-trade adjustment, although I do not know the specifics of that adjustment. We might be looking at a small sample quirk.
Ricky Tiedemann, 21, SP, TOR
18 IP, 12 H, 8 BB, 23 K, 2.50 ERA
After missing a large chunk of the 2023 season, Tiedemann was on hand in Arizona for just four starts. He made the most of them, showing enough to take home a closely-contested award. Tiedemann spent most of his active time at Double-A where he made 11 starts totaling just 32 innings. He missed bats with ease but struggled at times with command – an issue which followed him to the Fall League. He features a repertoire of three plus offerings including a mid-90s fastball, a sweeper, and a changeup.
Jackson Jobe, 21, P, DET
15.2 IP, 14 H, 5 BB, 19 K, 2.87 ERA
The next-highest profile pitching prospect in fall ball, Jobe nearly matched Tiedemann over his four-start run. Jobe works with a deep repertoire of at least five average or better offerings. He’s credited with a head for pitching including a professional-level feel for incorporating analytic analysis into his development. After tasting one start at Double-A this season, he’s on track for a Major League promotion sometime in 2024.
Victor Scott, 22, OF, STL
96 PA, 3 HR, 18 SB, .286/.388/.417
A speedy left-handed hitter, Scott turned heads in the AFL via an advanced feel for contact. He was one of only a handful of hitters who recorded more walks than strikeouts. Thought he has posted above average batting lines throughout his brief minor league tenure, scouts complain of a low-impact swing that might prove exploitable against upper-level pitching. Scott’s path to the Majors likely looks something like Johan Rojas – a defense-first profile with the speed and contact chops necessary to post an empty batting average.
Chase DeLauter, 22, OF, CLE
101 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB, .299/.385/.529
DeLauter is my pick for most intriguing player to participate in the AFL. His swing is an acquired taste – at first visually disturbing, but then it grows on you. Like Scott, DeLauter recorded more walks than strikeouts, a feat that fits right in with the Guardians hitting ethos. He also led the league in RBI. He will have an opportunity to approach the Majors next season, but he needs to prove he can get to power outcomes more consistently in order to get the call.
Three More
Oliver Dunn, PHI (26): A non-prospect coming off a strong Double-A campaign, Dunn likely played his way onto a 40-man roster this fall. He’s Rule 5 eligible so the Phillies will have to roster him or prepare to watch him be drafted. Dunn posted a 1.071 OPS – fourth-best in the league to go with 12 extra-base hits and 12 steals in 88 plate appearances.
Caleb Durbin, NYY (23): An Altuve-scale second baseman, Durbin led the AFL with 21 steals in 23 attempts. He also posted a 1.044 OPS, good for sixth-best in the league. He even delivered a trio of home runs to go with nine doubles and a triple in 99 plate appearances. He recorded twice as many walks as strikeouts. Durbin was arguably the most dynamic offensive performer in the AFL.
Damiano Palmegiani, TOR (23): Palmegiani was already ticketed for a role with the 2024 Blue Jays. With six home runs and 21 RBI in 92 plate appearances, he was one of the top-performing power hitters in the league. Pending offseason activity, he’s primed to compete for an Opening Day assignment.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
West Notes: Nevin, Giants, Angels, A’s
The Padres reportedly have former Angels manager Phil Nevin among the finalists for their managerial position, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network. Nevin, 52, was hired as third base coach in Anaheim prior to the 2022 season but became the club’s interim manager early in June of that year following the firing of Joe Maddon. Nevin continued as the club’s interim manager for the remainder of the season and the club decided to retain him in the role for 2023. Ultimately, however, the sides parted ways at the conclusion of the regular season. Anaheim found their replacement for Nevin last week, hiring Ron Washington away from his role as third base coach for the Braves.
Upon former Padres manager Bob Melvin’s departure to manage the division rival Giants, Nevin quickly became a candidate linked to San Diego’s managerial vacancy. Reports indicated late last week that Nevin had interviewed with the Padres for the role, and now Morosi’s report places Nevin as a potential finalist for the position. That being said, Nevin is far from the only finalist with a chance to be San Diego’s next manager. A pair of internal candidates in bench coach Ryan Flaherty and senior advisor Mike Shildt interviewed for the position shortly after Melvin’s departure and have long been seen as likely favorites to ultimately land the role. Shildt, in particular, has been linked to the role very frequently in recent weeks as an experienced skipper with four seasons at the helm of the Cardinals under his belt.
More from around MLB’s West divisions…
- The Giants have reportedly settled on a new bullpen coach to replace outgoing coach Craig Albernaz, who was recently hired away by the Guardians. Per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, San Francisco has decided upon Garvin Alston for the role. Alston, 51, was drafted as a player by the Rockies in the 10th round of the 1992 draft and spent eight seasons pitching in the minors, eventually briefly cracking Colorado’s big league roster during the 1996 season. Since retiring from his playing career, Alston has served in a variety of coaching roles in Oakland’s organization, including as bullpen coach, in addition to spending the 2018 season as pitching coach for the Twins.
- The Angels have begun to assemble a coaching staff under the newly-hired Washington, though despite suggestions to the contrary 19-year big league veteran Torii Hunter will not be joining that staff. Speaking to reporters (including Bill Shaikin of the LA Times), Hunter confirmed that he interviewed for the managerial position prior to Washington’s hiring and that the club subsequently reached out to gauge his interest in coaching, but that he declined to be considered for a coaching role. Nonetheless, Hunter spoke effusively of the Angels, noting that he would have been excited by the “challenge” of managing the Angels through what figures to be a difficult 2024 season, particularly if they are unable to retain franchise face Shohei Ohtani.
- While Hunter won’t be coaching for the Angels in 2024, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman wrote recently that former Astros manager Bo Porter is a candidate to join the club’s coaching staff. While Porter’s hypothetical role on the staff is unclear, Porter has plenty of experience from his time as a big leaguer with the Cubs, A’s, and Rangers to his time as third base coach with the Diamondbacks, Marlins, Nationals, and Braves to his two seasons managing in Houston, though those Astros clubs struggled to a 110-190 record under his guidance. As Heyman notes, Porter has connections to Washington both from his time as a player in Oakland and also from his time on the coaching staff and in the front office with Atlanta.
- The A’s announced their coaching staff for the 2024 season today, with a pair of new faces on the staff: Bobby Crosby, who won the AL Rookie of the Year award with Oakland back in 2004 and more recently has served as a manager in the minor leagues, as well as Dan Hubbs, who previously served as director of pitching development for the Tigers from 2020-21 and as a minor league coach with the A’s this past season. Crosby is replacing Mike Aldrete as first base coach as Aldrete moves into a hitting coach role, while Hubbs will replace Mike McCarthy as bullpen coach.
Pirates’ Johan Oviedo Being Evaluated For Elbow Injury
An already murky Pirates rotation mix is now facing even more uncertainty, as Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that righty Johan Oviedo is dealing with an arm injury that’s believed to be serious. The team hasn’t announced details or a precise diagnosis, but Mackey writes that Tommy John surgery is among the potential outcomes, so it would seem there’s some degree of ligament damage at play.
Oviedo, 25, came to the Pirates in the 2022 trade that sent lefty Jose Quintana to the division-rival Cardinals. Prior to the revelation of this injury, the righty had been locked into a 2024 rotation spot after taking the ball 32 times and pitching to a 4.31 ERA over the life of 177 2/3 innings. It’s hardly elite production, particularly when coupled with sub-par strikeout (20.6%) and walk (10.6%) rates, but Oviedo at least looked like a solid fourth starter who could be relied upon to take the ball every fifth game and keep his club in the game more often than not. Obviously, the mention of even potential Tommy John surgery throws a major wrench into that projection.
That’s particularly problematic news for a Pirates team that is generally lacking in established starters. Longtime top prospect Mitch Keller took a step forward in 2022-23 and is the unquestioned leader of the staff, but certainty thereafter is minimal. Right-hander Roansy Contreras took a step back in 2023, while fellow righty JT Brubaker had his own Tommy John surgery. Deadline pickup Bailey Falter has had some past success with the Phillies but struggled between both Pennsylvania clubs in 2023. Young right-handers Luis Ortiz and Quinn Priester each made at least 10 appearances, but neither cemented himself as a big leaguer. Alternative options like Osvaldo Bido, Jackson Wolf and Kyle Nicolas are similarly unproven.
General manager Ben Cherington has already stated publicly that his focus has been on starting pitching. Cherington presumably knew of Oviedo’s situation at the time of those comments, so this may not necessarily add any urgency to that search, but the revelation of Oviedo’s injury adds context for potential trade partners and agents as the Bucs explore ways to add to the rotation. With such ample uncertainty beyond Keller, it’d be fairly surprising if the Pirates didn’t add at least two arms to the rotation group for the upcoming season (to say nothing of veteran depth on minor league deals and some potential pickups of 40-man starters with minor league options remaining).
As things stand, the Pirates project for just a $53MM payroll in 2024, per Roster Resource. Even by their bottom-of-the-league standards, that leaves ample room for the team to add some experienced arms to the staff. Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes are the only players under guaranteed contracts, while the quintet of Keller, Brubaker, Ryan Borucki, David Bednar and Connor Joe are eligible for arbitration. Pittsburgh’s franchise-record Opening Day payroll was just shy of $100MM back in 2016. They operated with a payroll a bit north of $70MM in 2023.
Oviedo isn’t even arbitration-eligible yet and won’t be until after the 2024 season. He’s currently under club control for another four years, so even in the event that Oviedo does require UCL surgery, the Bucs could potentially get another three years out of him (2025-27) before he reaches free agency.
Angels Select Jack Kochanowicz
The Angels announced that they have selected the contract of right-hander Jack Kochanowicz. Tomorrow is the deadline to select eligible players in order to prevent them from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. Their 40-man roster count is now at 39.
Kochanowicz, the club’s ninth-best prospect per MLB Pipeline, was a third-round pick by the Angels in the 2019 draft. He didn’t make his professional debut until 2021 due to the cancelled minor league season in 2020, and struggled badly in his first pro season with a 6.91 ERA in 83 1/3 innings at the Single-A level. Kochanowicz struck out just 19% of batters faced while walking 9.1% during the 2021 campaign. His performance improved during a repeat of the level in 2022, as his ERA and walk rate dipped to 4.99 and 7.3% while his strikeout rate crept up to 21.2%.
Assigned to the High-A level to open the 2023 campaign, Kochanowicz looked nothing short of dominant for five starts with a 1.52 ERA and 14 strikeouts against just 3 walks in 23 2/3 innings of work. That strong performance earned him a call-up to Double-A, but he struggled badly once again after his promotion with a 6.53 ERA across 70 1/3 innings of work. While his walk rate continued to improve with a 6.1% figure this season, Kochanowicz’s strikeout rate dipped to just 17% in 2023 while he allowed home runs in ten of his sixteen Double-A appearances, including eight of his eleven appearances that lasted longer than two innings.
All those factors make it seem possible that Kochanowicz is ticketed for relief work long term, despite exclusively being used as a starter in 2023. He’s had success in a relief role in the past, with a sterling 1.53 ERA and a 26.1% strikeout rate in 17 2/3 innings of work out of the bullpen during the 2022 campaign. Given that past success in relief and his excellent fastball, which touches the upper 90s and has helped him generate solid ground ball rates throughout his career, it’s understandable that the Angels felt the need to protect Kochanowicz from the upcoming Rule 5 draft; even if the club plans to continue trying to develop the young righty as a starter, it’s certainly feasible a rebuilding club could try and stash his high-velo arm in a major league bullpen for 2024 in hopes of unlocking his potential.