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Yankees Sign Carlos Rodon To Six-Year Deal

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December 21: The Yankees have officially announced the signing.

December 15: The best remaining free agent starter is headed to the Bronx. The Yankees are reportedly in agreement on a six-year, $162MM contract with Carlos Rodón. The Boras Corporation client will receive a $5MM signing bonus and a $22MM salary next season followed by successive $27MM salaries from 2024-28. The deal contains a full no-trade clause and runs through Rodón’s age-35 season.

New York pairs the addition with their record-setting deal for defending AL MVP Aaron Judge as part of a huge offseason. The guarantee ties that of Brandon Nimmo for the sixth-largest deal of the offseason. Rodón will finish with the second-largest guarantee among free agent pitchers, narrowly behind the five-year, $185MM pact Jacob deGrom inked with the Rangers.

It’s the culmination of an incredible two-season run. The left-hander entered the professional ranks eight years ago, selected by the White Sox with the third overall pick in the 2014 draft. Owner of a mid-90s fastball and a wipeout slider, he was regarded as a potential top-of-the-rotation starter who’d quickly reach the big leagues. Rodón indeed found himself on Chicago’s south side by the middle of the 2015 campaign, and he posted a 3.90 ERA in 304 1/3 innings through the end of the following season.

Unfortunately, the Miami native’s career was then sidetracked by injuries. Rodón lost a chunk of the 2017 campaign to biceps bursitis, then underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery that September. He didn’t debut until June the following year, making 20 starts. Early the next season, Rodón was diagnosed with an elbow issue. He went back under the knife in May ’19, this time undergoing a Tommy John procedure. He missed the remainder of that year, returning at the tail end of the 2020 campaign for four appearances.

The mounting injury troubles led the White Sox to decline to tender him a contract heading into 2021. Chicago circled back towards the end of the offseason, bringing him back on a $3MM free agent deal. That move was met with a fair amount of criticism, but it turned into one of the best decisions of GM Rick Hahn’s tenure.

Rodón was brilliant in 2021, earning his first All-Star nod with a 2.31 ERA over 89 2/3 first-half innings. He looked on his way to a Cy Young award when he dealt with some shoulder fatigue in August. Rodón only missed a couple weeks and continued to pitch well upon his return, although his velocity dropped towards season’s end. The southpaw concluded the year with a 2.37 ERA and a massive 34.6% strikeout percentage across 132 2/3 innings. He placed fifth in Cy Young balloting.

The end-of-year shoulder issue and velocity dip seemed to scare the Chicago front office, however. They made the eyebrow-raising decision not to issue Rodón a qualifying offer, allowing him to hit the open market without draft compensation attached. He remained a free agent until after the lockout, when the Giants added him on a two-year, $44MM guarantee. The deal contained an opt-out clause after year one, conditional on Rodón reaching 110 innings pitched in 2022. It was an opportunity for the star hurler to bet on himself, knowing a nine-figure deal could be in the cards if he maintained his 2021 form over a full, healthy season.

Rodón did exactly that, doubling down with perhaps the best season of his career. He stayed healthy all year, making 31 starts and tallying a personal-high 178 innings. Rodón worked to a sterling 2.88 ERA. He earned a second straight All-Star nod and was among the game’s best at missing bats. Rodón fanned 33.4% of opponents against a solid 7.3% walk rate. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, only Braves rookier Spencer Strider bested that strikeout percentage. Strider, Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole were the only pitchers with a larger gap between their strikeout and walk rates.

Almost as importantly, Rodón’s arsenal showed no ill effects after his 2021 dip. His fastball averaged a strong 95.5 MPH, making him one of the game’s harder-throwing lefty pitchers. He generated high-end spin and whiff rates on both his fastball and slider, and opposing hitters swung through a massive 14.1% of his total pitches. Rodón stifled batters from both sides of the plate; he held lefties to a .179/.257/.260 line, while hitters with the platoon advantage put together just a .207/.264/.319 mark.

A second season of elite performance, this one without any health scares, cemented the 30-year-old as one of the sport’s top pitchers. His career took a more winding road than expected when he was drafted, but Rodón has developed into a top-of-the-rotation starter. He made the easy decision to opt out of his deal with San Francisco after topping the necessary innings threshold, and he quickly turned down a qualifying offer.

It now looks like a potentially elite Yankee rotation. New York watched Jameson Taillon depart but upgrades with the Rodón addition. He and Cole are co-aces, backed up by breakout hurler Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Frankie Montas. The latter two have had some injury concerns in recent seasons, but they’re overqualified as fourth and fifth starters if healthy. Domingo Germán, Clarke Schmidt and prospect Randy Vasquez are on hand as depth options who could step in if any of the top five get injured.

Rodón was one of three aces available in free agency, jointing deGrom and Justin Verlander. As the youngest of that trio, he always looked likely to secure the longest deal. The six-year term will be the longest for any pitcher this winter, although deGrom’s five-year contract and the stronger than expected market for mid-tier starters led to rumors Rodón’s camp was seeking a seven-year pact that’d push past $200MM. He falls well shy of that lofty hope, but the six-year, $162MM commitment is still quite strong for a pitcher.

It’s the first six-year commitment for a free agent pitcher since Cole and Stephen Strasburg pushed to nine and seven years, respectively, over the 2019-20 offseason. Patrick Corbin ($140MM) and Yu Darvish ($120MM) are the only other open market hurlers to reach six years since the start of the 2016 campaign. At the start of this offseason, MLBTR forecasted Rodón for a five-year, $140MM pact.

The cost for New York goes beyond the salary they’ll owe, as the deal pushes them even further into luxury tax territory. The Yankees were already set to pay the competitive balance tax, and adding Rodón pushes them towards the top tier of penalization. The contract comes with a $27MM average annual value, bringing New York’s CBT figure within a rounding error of the $293MM mark, according to Roster Resource. That’s the cutoff for the fourth CBT tier and places them around $60MM north of the $233MM base threshold.

New York also paid the luxury tax in 2022, so they’ll be subject to heightened penalties as a repeat payor. The Yankees will pay a 30% tax on their first $20MM in overages ($6MM), 42% on their next $20MM ($8.4MM), 75% on the next $20MM ($15MM) and 90% on every dollar spent above $293MM. Signing Rodón pushes them firmly to the top of the third threshold, essentially tacking on around $18MM in taxes. The $27MM salary will bring their raw payroll total around $277MM, which’ll easily be a franchise record.

Going past the third threshold will also push the Yankees first draft choice in 2024 down ten spots. Meanwhile, signing a player who’d turned down a qualifying offer will have a significant impact on their 2023 draft. New York is subject to the highest penalties as a team that paid the CBT this year. They’ll lose their second and fifth-highest selection in next summer’s amateur draft, while their international bonus allotment will drop by $1MM.

The Giants will receive compensation for Rodón’s departure. As a team that neither received revenue sharing payments nor paid the CBT this year, they’ll pick up a bonus selection between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of third round (typically around 75th overall) in next year’s draft. San Francisco had seemingly prepared for Rodón’s departure from the roster by making a pair of their preferred shorter-term rotation additions, bringing aboard Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling on two-year guarantees.

With Ródon off the board, Dansby Swanson is the last remaining free agent who’s likely to find a nine-figure deal. The free agent rotation market has mostly been covered at the top end, with Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Johnny Cueto, Corey Kluber and Drew Rucinski standing as some of the top options still available. Needless to say, none of that group has the kind of upside Rodón does. It’s a bold bet from the Yankees, one they hope adds an impact arm to their playoff rotation as they look to advance past the AL Championship Series for the first time since 2009.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported Rodón and the Yankees had agreed to a six-year, $162MM deal that contained a full no-trade clause. Bob Nightengale of USA Today was first to report the specific financial breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Pirates To Sign Tyler Chatwood To Minor League Deal

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The Pirates and right-hander Tyler Chatwood are in agreement on a minor league deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Chatwood will presumably receive an invite to major league Spring Training.

Chatwood, 33, spent many years as a starting pitcher but seemed to hit a wall in 2018. He signed a three-year deal with the Cubs going into that season but posted a 5.30 ERA while walking an incredible 19.5% of the batters he faced. Since that time, he’s transitioned into more relief work, with an encouraging increase in strikeouts but without putting the control issues behind him.

In 2019, he made five starts for the Cubs but 33 relief appearances. He got his ERA down to 3.76 for the year while striking out 22.8% of the batters he faced. That rate was just a bit below league average but was a huge improvement for him personally, as he’d come in under 20% in all seven of his previous seasons. He still walked 11.4% of batters faced but proved he could be effective around those free passes.

2020 was a bit of a step back, as he made five starts around a couple of trips to the injured list and finished with a 5.30 ERA. The Blue Jays took a shot on him for 2021, signing him to a one-year deal and installing him in their bullpen. He made 30 relief appearances and increased his strikeout rate to 25.6% but walked 16% of batters faced, leading to a 5.46 ERA. He was designated for assignment and latched on with the Giants, making two further appearances before getting the DFA treatment again.

For 2022, Chatwood went to Japan to join the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks of Nippon Professional Baseball. He made six appearances for their minor league team, logging 24 1/3 innings, before shoulder surgery in June wiped out the rest of his season. He’ll be a real wild card for the Pirates given the shoulder surgery and his previous control issues, but a minor league deals means there’s essentially no risk for the club. Given Pittsburgh’s ongoing rebuild, Chatwood would likely turn into a deadline trade chip if he can return to health and get into a nice groove this year.

Mets To Sign Carlos Correa

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In a shocking development, Carlos Correa has agreed to join the Mets for a 12-year, $315MM contract, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.  Correa had previously agreed to a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants, yet reports surfaced yesterday that an unknown issue with Correa’s medicals had led to a postponement of the Giants’ introductory press conference for the shortstop.  The 28-year-old Correa is represented by the Boras Corporation, and his deal with the Mets will become official once he passes a physical.

As Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets, the “Giants flagged something in [Correa’s] physical and doctors disagreed.”  Slusser also reported yesterday that Correa’s back wasn’t the issue, though back soreness has sent the former All-Star to the injured list on multiple occasions during his career.

Whatever the Giants took issue with in Correa’s physical, obviously the problem wasn’t enough to deter the Mets from adding yet another high-priced star to their already loaded roster (and payroll).  Mets owner Steve Cohen said last week that the team made a late bid of around $300MM to land Correa, but that offer was turned down by agent Scott Boras since talks with the Giants had already reached an advanced stage.

As it turned out, that late attempt from Cohen was seemingly all Boras needed to secure another mega-deal for his client quickly after the agreement with San Francisco fell apart.  As Cohen told Heyman, “we kind of picked up where we were before and it just worked out” over the course of four or five hours’ worth of extra negotiations.

Correa’s new contract with New York is one year shorter and worth slightly less in average annual value ($26.25MM with the Mets compared to $26.92MM with the Giants).  It is also “only” now the 10th-largest contract in baseball history in terms of total value, while the $350MM deal with San Francisco was the fourth-largest in history.

Still, the deal handily surpasses MLBTR’s projection of a nine-year, $288MM pact for Correa.  Like the structure of the original Giants contract as well as other deals signed by Xander Bogaerts and Trea Turner this winter alone, the longer length allows the team to spread out the luxury-tax hit over more years, while the player still gets his money as well as extra security.  The Mets themselves used a version of this strategy in re-signing Brandon Nimmo to an eight-year, $162MM deal, as Nimmo’s tax number is $20.25MM.  Correa now joins Nimmo and Francisco Lindor as Mets players signed beyond the 2029 season, though the Mets’ expenditures this winter have varied widely in length.

The overall numbers of the Mets’ spending spree continue to stagger.  Assuming Correa’s contract pays him $26.25MM in each year of the deal, the Amazins’ payroll will now soar past the $377MM mark for 2023.  Having already far surpassed the fourth and highest tier ($293MM) of Competitive Balance Tax penalties, New York is paying a 90% tax on every dollar spent beyond the $293MM threshold.  That works out to roughly $23.62MM added to the Mets’ tax bill, thus putting their luxury tax number over $386MM.

Correa, Nimmo, Justin Verlander, Edwin Diaz, Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, David Robertson, Adam Ottavino, and Omar Narvaez represent the star-studded list of free agents signed and re-signed by New York this offseason alone, to say nothing of their previous big splashes since Cohen bought the team just over two years ago.  Needless to say, Cohen has established new standards for spending, as the owner has made no qualms about his desire to immediately make the Mets as competitive as possible.  The result was a 101-win season in 2022, but the Amazins didn’t make it past the first round of the expanded playoffs, losing to the Padres in three games in the Wild Card Series.

The Correa signing “really makes a big difference,” Cohen said.  “I felt like our pitching was in good shape.  We needed one more hitter.  This puts us over the top.”

Indeed, most of the Mets’ focus had been on revamping a rotation and bullpen that was full of free agents.  While Diaz and Ottavino were re-signed, plenty of holes had to be filled after Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker, Seth Lugo, Joely Rodriguez, Trevor Williams, Trevor May, and Mychal Givens all signed elsewhere.  Nimmo was the biggest pending free agent on the position player side, and Narvaez should help bolster the catching corps, but Cohen and GM Billy Eppler weren’t going to curb their aggressiveness.

To this end, one of baseball’s best shortstops in Correa now won’t even be a shortstop, as Correa will now move to third base in deference to Lindor.  Correa won a Platinum Glove, Gold Glove, and Fielding Bible Award for his work at shortstop just in 2021, and his professional experience at third base consists of one game with the Astros’ Double-A affiliate in 2015.  That said, Lindor is an excellent fielder in his own right, and the Outs Above Average and UZR/150 public metrics prefer his glovework at shortstop to Correa’s over the course of their careers.  There isn’t much doubt that Correa should be able to translate well to the hot corner, thus improving the Mets’ defense as well as the impact he’ll bring to the lineup.

With Correa now the new third baseman, Eduardo Escobar is suddenly out of a starting job.  It wasn’t even 13 months ago that Escobar was one of New York’s big signings of the 2021-22 offseason, as he inked a two-year, $20MM deal.  Escobar was decent if unspectacular, hitting .240/.295/.430 with 20 homers for a 106 wRC+ over 542 plate appearances in his first year in Queens.

“Decent if unspectacular” wasn’t enough for a team so intent on winning, however, and thus Escobar could now join Luis Guillorme as infield depth.  It stands to reason that the Mets could explore trading Escobar (and the $10MM remaining on his deal) to a team in need of a dependable veteran infielder, or New York could simply keep Escobar as a backup option in the event of an injury to Correa or starting second baseman Jeff McNeil.

Looking further down the depth chart, top prospect Brett Baty is also a third baseman, as is Mark Vientos (ranked by MLB Pipeline as the seventh-best minor league in New York’s farm system).  Baty has gotten some time as an outfielder and now might be viewed as a possible replacement for Canha in left field, while Vientos might be destined for a move off third base anyway, with first base potentially being his ultimate spot on the field.  With Correa now locked into the hot corner, however, there seems an increased possibility that the Mets could shop either of these prospects for other upgrades.

Today’s news marks the latest twist in a controversy-filled career for Correa, largely tied to his participation on the 2017 Astros team that won a World Series championship later clouded by the sign-stealing scandal.  Correa’s time in Houston ended when he signed a three-year, $105.3MM deal with the Twins last winter, though that shorter-than-expected contract was designed to allow a quick return to the free agency.  Correa had opt-out clauses after both the 2022 and 2023 campaigns, and he exercised that first opt-out to re-enter the market in an offseason that wasn’t interrupted by the lockout.

Correa hit .291/.366/.467 with 22 homers over 590 plate appearances in his lone season in Minnesota, with a 140 wRC+ that stands as the third-highest of his eight MLB seasons.  Coming off a strong platform year and still being younger than most free agents once they reach the open market, Correa had every expectation of finally landing the pricey long-term contract he initially wanted last year.

The result was two pricey, long-term contracts, with the Mets swooping in to take Correa away from the Giants.  It’s probably wise to not totally assume Correa’s pact with the Mets is a done deal until the physical is passed and an official announcement is made, given the stunning nature of the last 24 hours.  Yesterday’s reports of a delay certainly raised red flags about the status of Correa’s agreement with San Francisco, but with an absence of any concrete news, there wasn’t yet any reason to believe that Correa wouldn’t still eventually end up in the Bay Area.

Instead, the Giants’ winter plans have now been dealt an almost unfathomable setback.  The Giants slumped to an 81-81 record after their 107-win season in 2021, leaving president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi in search of a major acquisition.  San Francisco has lots of payroll space and lots of needs around the roster to accommodate at least one new superstar, and there seemed little doubt that the Giants were lining up to make the first true blockbuster signing of Zaidi’s four-year tenure.

Aaron Judge was clearly the top priority heading into the offseason, and the Giants reportedly offered Judge around $360MM before the AL MVP took that same salary over a nine-year deal to re-sign with the Yankees.  With Judge off the board, San Francisco then turned to the shortstop market, with Correa emerging as their top target (ahead of Turner, Bogaerts, or Dansby Swanson).  The $350MM deal represented the biggest contract in franchise history, and a resounding counter to any argument that the Giants’ front office was unwilling or unable to land top-tier free agents.

It isn’t exactly true that the Giants are back to square one, since they’ve also signed Mitch Haniger, Ross Stripling, and Sean Manaea in free agency, and Joc Pederson was retained via the qualifying offer.  But, Carlos Rodon left the team to also sign with the Yankees, removing another star from the 2022 roster.  The league-wide rush on free agent signings has left the market bare of most of the top names, and so Zaidi and company will now have to explore the trade market (and possibly make some tough decisions on trading top prospects) in order to acquire another big-ticket star….if one is even necessarily available.

Speculatively, the Giants could try to wield their payroll space in a different manner, perhaps by offering a deal for both a star player and an undesirable contract on a team looking to cut spending.  With over three months until Opening Day, there’s plenty of time left for the Giants to still make moves, and yet it’s hard to imagine they can make an addition anywhere near Correa’s level.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Originally posted at 2:05am.

Astros Re-Sign Michael Brantley

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December 21: The Astros have officially announced the deal. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle provides a breakdown of the incentives. Brantley will get $500K for reaching 400 and 425 plate appearances, then an extra $750K at 450, 475, 500 and 525 appearances.

December 18: The Astros have agreed to a one-year, $12MM deal with outfielder Michael Brantley, pending a physical.  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported the contract value, with The New York Post’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links) adding that the deal also contains $4MM in additional incentive bonuses.  FanSided’s Robert Murray (Twitter link) initially reported that the two sides were in talks about a new deal.  Brantley is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Brantley is entering his age-36 season, and 2023 will be his fifth year in a Houston uniform.  He previously signed a pair of two-year, $32MM pacts with the team in his two past trips to free agency, and by coincidence, it was four years ago today that Brantley first agreed to join the Astros.

In terms of pure numbers, Brantley’s tenure in Houston has been very successful, with a 128 wRC+ and a .306/.368/.464 slash line and 40 homers over 1609 plate appearances.  Unfortunately for Brantley, his role in the Astros’ 2022 championship season ended on June 26, due to a shoulder injury that eventually required surgery.  Brantley played in only 64 games.

This isn’t the first time Brantley has dealt with a shoulder surgery, as he previously went under the knife to fix a small labrum tear in 2015 and subsequently played in only 11 games for Cleveland in the 2016 season.  Beyond the shoulder problems, Brantley has also faced ankle and back problems throughout his career, but his first three seasons with the Astros were reasonably healthy.  Quad, knee, and hamstring issues sent Brantley to the injured list three times in 2020-21, but all three IL stints combined for roughly a month of missed time.

The presence of Yordan Alvarez has probably kept the Astros from using Brantley as a DH as often as they would probably like, though on paper, manager Dusty Baker can alternate the two players between left field and DH in order to hopefully keep everyone fresh.  With Brantley back in the mix, Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick will now be splitting time in center field.

The Astros were known to be looking for outfield help, preferably a left-handed bat (like Brantley) to balance out a lineup of mostly right-handed hitters.  Michael Conforto and the switch-hitting Jurickson Profar were other free agents reportedly on Houston’s radar, and the Astros also had some talks with the Diamondbacks about their surplus of lefty-hitting outfielders, particularly Daulton Varsho.  Among players who have already signed with other teams, Andrew Benintendi and Cody Bellinger also received some consideration from the World Series champions.

Among all these options, the Astros opted for a familiar face in Brantley, counting on a comeback year.  The signing suggests that Houston (who knows Brantley’s medical profile better than anyone) is feeling good about the outfielder’s chances of both recovering well from shoulder rehab, and returning to his prior form at the plate.  The $4MM in performance incentives gives Brantley an additional chance to cash in should he indeed stay healthy and keep up his usual levels of productivity.

While the injuries are naturally the biggest question mark hanging over Brantley, there is also the matter of what can be expected of any hitter as he gets deeper into his 30’s.  Brantley’s homer totals and slugging percentage have both dropped rather sharply over the last two seasons, though he seemed to be adjusting by having a more keen eye at the plate.  Albeit in the small sample size of 277 PA, Brantley’s 11.2% walk rate in 2022 was the highest of his 14-year Major League career.  Brantley has also remained one of baseball’s toughest hitters to strike out, and his 45.1% hard-hit ball total last season was also his highest since Statcast began tracking the category in 2015.

Between Brantley and Jose Abreu, the Astros have bolstered their lineup with a pair of “professional hitter” types who brings plenty of experience to the table.  Between Brantley’s $12MM deal and Abreu’s three-year, $58.5MM contract, Houston’s estimated payroll now sits at approximately $194MM, with a luxury tax figure of just over $209MM.  That still leaves the Astros well under the $233MM luxury tax threshold, and some of that space could be used on a catcher, since Houston has explored the market for backstops.  Some less-expensive options like Tucker Barnhart remain in free agency, or the Astros could look into trades with catcher-heavy teams like the Blue Jays.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Orioles Designate Lewin Díaz For Assignment

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The Orioles have announced their deal with reliever Mychal Givens, making it official. In a corresponding move, first baseman Lewin Díaz has been designated for assignment.

Díaz, 26, was originally signed by the Twins and was highly-touted as a prospect due to his power bat and strong first base defense. Baseball America ranked him one of the top 30 Minnesota farmhands in four straight seasons from 2015 to 2018. The Twins flipped him to the Marlins in a 2019 trade that sent Sergio Romo and Chris Vallimont the other way.

Díaz has spent the past few seasons in the Marlins’ system, hitting well in the upper levels of the minors but struggling in the majors. Over the past three MLB seasons, he’s made 343 plate appearances but has a paltry .181/.227/.340 batting line to show for it. In Triple-A over the past two seasons, however, he’s hit 39 home runs in 680 plate appearances and has a much more palatable .250/.325/.504 line. That production was 15% better than league average, as evidenced by his 115 wRC+.

On the defensive side of things, his big league numbers are much more positive. He always was graded well for his glove work as a prospect and that seems to be holding true as he’s reached the majors. Defensive Runs Saved has given him a +16 grade so far, with Ultimate Zone Rating coming in at 3.4 and Outs Above Average at +9.

That work in the field gives Díaz a solid floor as a glove-first option, with his strong offense in the minors giving some hope that he could develop into a two-way contributor. He’s now out of options but is still young and has just over a year of MLB service time. There’s enough intrigue in his profile to attract clubs around the league. The Marlins designated him for assignment in November but he has since landed with the Pirates and Orioles on waiver claims. The O’s will now have a week to trade him or pass him through waivers.

Orioles Sign Mychal Givens To One-Year Deal

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Dec. 21: The Orioles officially announced the deal today.

Dec. 19 6:22pm: Feinsand reports the specifics of the mutual option (on Twitter): Givens receives a $3MM salary in 2023. The option price is valued at $6MM. If Givens declines his end of next year’s option, he’d receive a $1MM buyout. If he triggers the option but the Orioles decline their end, he’d pick up a $2MM buyout.

6:08pm: The deal contains a mutual option for the 2024 campaign, report Dan Connolly and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link).

5:50pm: It will be a one-year deal for Givens with a $5MM guarantee, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

5:40pm: The Orioles and reliever Mychal Givens are in agreement on a contract, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The terms of the deal, which is pending a physical, are not yet known. The club’s 40-man roster is full, meaning a corresponding move will be required once the deal is official. Givens is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Givens, 33 in May, returns to his original organization, as the O’s drafted him back in 2009. He worked his way up to the majors and debuted with them in 2015, establishing himself as a solid MLB reliever in the years to come. In each of the three seasons from 2016 to 2018, he made at least 66 appearances for Baltimore, throwing at least 74 2/3 innings and never posting an ERA higher than 3.99. In 2019, he took a noticeable step back, posting a 4.57 ERA, though it’s worth pointing out that was the season of the “juiced balls” and his 22.8% home run per fly ball rate was almost double his career rate of 12.1%.

In the three seasons since, Givens has made that 2019 showing look more and more like an outlier. He’s bounced to the Rockies, Reds, Cubs and Mets in that time, posting a 3.41 ERA over that three-year period. For his career as a whole, Givens has a 3.40 ERA over 419 appearances, with a 28.4% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate and 37.9% ground ball rate.

The club has some exciting young pitchers in their bullpen, such as Félix Bautista, Dillon Tate and Cionel Pérez, but Givens will give them an experienced option. If the club is in contention down the stretch, he can play a key role for them, but he could also turn into deadline fodder otherwise. That would be nothing new for Givens, as he’s been traded near the deadline in each of the past three years.

Givens reached free agency for the first time after 2021 and signed with the Cubs for 2022. It was a one-year deal with a mutual option, with Givens making $3.5MM in salary and a $1.5MM buyout on the option, amounting to a $5MM guarantee but with $1.25MM available in bonuses as well. He’ll land a matching deal this time around.

The Orioles have given out one-year deals to Kyle Gibson and Adam Frazier already this offseason, adding some veteran presence around their young core. The O’s had just $60MM committed to their 2023 payroll thus far, per Roster Resource, and this move pushes them up around $64MM. The club’s ledger for 2024 remains completely blank, aside from the buyout figures attached to Givens’ mutual option.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

The Opener: Correa, Infield Market, MLBTR Chat

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Following an overnight stunner of a transaction, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball throughout the day:

1. What will the fallout of Correa’s new deal be?

Carlos Correa and the Mets stunned the baseball world by coming to terms on a 12-year, $315MM contract last night, and a shakeup of this magnitude is certain to have ripple effects throughout the offseason and beyond. For the Mets, the addition of Correa pushes Eduardo Escobar out of the starting lineup while potentially blocking the advancement of top prospects Brett Baty and Mark Vientos, both of whom primarily play third base. This could potentially leave Escobar on the trade block, where he would join James McCann and Carlos Carrasco as players the Mets are listening on. Baty and Vientos, meanwhile, could still have paths to playing time in the majors. Baty can play left field in addition to third, while Vientos already appeared to profile better at first base or the DH slot than the hot corner. Still, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Mets deal either player in pursuit of upgrades elsewhere, especially considering their interest in Liam Hendriks. As for the Giants, they’ve now lost out on pursuits of Correa, Aaron Judge, and Carlos Rodon in free agency this offseason, leaving them in a troubling position going forward. Though they’ve added quality complementary pieces such as Mitch Haniger, Ross Stripling, and Sean Manaea, their failure to add any of the top free agents leaves San Francisco lacking the star power necessary to compete with the Dodgers and Padres in the NL West. Perhaps the Giants will be able to get creative and use their unexpectedly available financial resources to acquire talent in trades, but failing that, they may have to set their eyes on next offseason’s free agent class, which also seems likely to have a great deal of star power at the top of the market.

2. Where does the infield market stand?

While Correa’s new home was the big news yesterday, the infield market has begun to heat up, with Brandon Drury landing in Anaheim on a two-year deal and Matt Carpenter headed to San Diego, just a few days after Justin Turner signed on in Boston. The Diamondbacks, White Sox, Cubs and Marlins are among the teams who could still be looking to add to their infield, and the free agent market still has some interesting options available. Jean Segura is perhaps the best infielder left on the market, though Evan Longoria, Donovan Solano, and Elvis Andrus are all still available as well. The rumor mill has been quiet regarding this group of players (though Longoria has been connected to Arizona), but with the market for infielders in a similar tier heating up in recent days, it’s possible the markets for these players could advance quickly.

3. MLBTR Chat Today

Whether you missed out on yesterday’s live chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams, or last night’s shocking Correa deal has raised new questions for you, don’t fret. Not only can you read the transcript of that chat here, but MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be hosting a live chat of his own today at 3:00 PM CT, where he will field questions from readers. You can submit a question in advance here, and the same link will take you to the chat once it’s live if you want to participate in real time.

Giants Reportedly Postpone Carlos Correa’s Introduction Due To Medical Concern

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The Giants and Carlos Correa agreed to terms last week on a 13-year, $350MM framework for a deal. That structure was pending a physical and Correa had yet to officially sign the contract. The club was going to introduce him today but the scheduled news conference was postponed due to a medical concern, reports Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. Earlier today, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported that the postponement was related to the fact that the club was “awaiting test results.” At this point, it isn’t known what exactly is causing the holdup, with Blum’s report simply stating that “a medical issue was flagged.”

Beyond that information, anything else is speculation at this point. It isn’t publicly known what the issue is or how serious it is. It’s also not known if the Giants simply want to conduct further tests or have firm evidence of something that will lead to the deal being called off or restructured. However, the fact that they are at least delaying the official stamp is a situation that will be worth monitoring.

Over the past eight seasons, Correa has been one of the best shortstops in baseball but one knock against him has been durability. He has gone to the injured list with various issues in his career, including a torn ligament in his thumb, lower back soreness and a fractured rib. However, he largely moved past his “injury-prone” label in recent years. He played 58 games in the shortened 60-game season in 2020, followed by 148 contests in 2021. This most recent season, he went on the IL for a finger contusion and went to the COVID-IL once but still got into 136 games on the year, staying healthy for the entirety of the second half of the season. Again, it’s worth repeating that we don’t know what the current issue is or the severity of it, but Slusser reports that is not a back problem.

A’s Sign Jake Fishman, Deolis Guerra To Minor League Deals

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The A’s announced a number of non-roster invitations to Spring Training this afternoon. Among those invited to camp were relievers Jake Fishman and Deolis Guerra, indicating both recently joined the organization on minor league deals. Oakland also signed first baseman Kevin Cron.

Fishman reached the big leagues for the first time with the Marlins in 2022. The southpaw had a few separate stints with Miami and made seven appearances altogether. He tallied 11 innings, allowing five runs while striking out six and issuing three walks. The sinkerballer averaged only 87.5 MPH on his fastball and under 76 MPH on his slider, but he had a nice year in Triple-A.

Through 56 appearances with Miami’s top affiliate, Fishman posted a 2.25 ERA. He induced grounders at an excellent 54.2% clip and struck out a serviceable 23.1% of opponents. The Union College product walked 8.5% of batters faced in the minors, and he held same-handed hitters to an awful .191/.270/.270 line across 142 plate appearances in Triple-A. Despite that strong showing, he was outrighted off Miami’s 40-man roster at the end of the end of the season and qualified for free agency. Also a former member of the Blue Jays organization, Fishman will compete for a situational role similar to the one already held by Sam Moll in Oakland.

Guerra is a familiar face for Oakland fans. The 33-year-old was second on the team in relief innings in 2021, soaking up 65 2/3 frames across 53 outings. He had a solid if unremarkable year, posting a 4.11 ERA while putting up roughly average strikeout and walk rates (23% and 7.4%, respectively). A veteran journeyman who’d previously suited up for the Pirates, Angels, Brewers and Phillies at the MLB level, Guerra looked to have carved out a multi-year role in the Oakland bullpen.

That was thrown off track before the 2022 season even began, however. Guerra battled some elbow pain in Spring Training, and he underwent Tommy John surgery a week into the regular season. He spent the whole year on the injured list and was non-tendered at the end of the season. While the A’s weren’t prepared to carry him on the 40-man roster all winter after a lost season, they quickly brought him back with a chance to earn a spot yet again. Given the mid-April timing of his surgery, it’s unlikely Guerra will be ready to take the mound in exhibition play. He’ll presumably start the year on the minor league injured list and head to Triple-A Las Vegas after he completes his rehab and builds back to game shape.

Cron, 30 in February, played in 47 games with the Diamondbacks from 2019-20. The right-handed hitter didn’t perform well in that very limited look, but he has mashed at a .319/.405/.651 clip in just over 800 career Triple-A plate appearances (albeit in an extremely favorable environment in Reno). Those monster numbers earned Cron looks in both Japan and South Korea over the past two years, though he didn’t fare especially well at either stop. He hit .231/.270/.431 with NPB’s Hiroshima Carp in 2021 and posted a .222/.255/.420 mark through 259 trips to the plate with the KBO’s SSG Landers this year.

Also included in the list of non-roster invitees are outfielder Cody Thomas and infielder Ernie Clement. Both had been designated for assignment in recent days but apparently went unclaimed on waivers and remained in the organization on outright assignments. Thomas debuted with 10 MLB games this past season, while Clement hit .184/.243/.209 in 70 combined contests between the Guardians and A’s in 2022.

Oakland further announced that infielder Vimael Machín declined an outright assignment after going unclaimed on waivers. He’ll head to minor league free agency, as is his right as a player who has been outrighted multiple times in his career. The lefty-hitting infielder posted a .220/.300/.287 line with one homer through 253 plate appearances this past season. He hasn’t done much at the plate in parts of three big league campaigns. Owner of a far more impressive .307/.400/.468 line through parts of four Triple-A seasons, Machín figures to find a minor league opportunity elsewhere.

Mets Showing Trade Interest In Liam Hendriks

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The Mets are among the clubs that have contacted the White Sox regarding Liam Hendriks, reports Michael Mayer of Metsmerized (Twitter link). Reports emerged a couple weeks ago that Chicago had been discussing their star closer with other teams, though the identity of those clubs wasn’t clear.

Certainly, the Mets aren’t the only team that’d be interested in prying Hendriks from Chicago. The 33-year-old is one of the sport’s top late-game weapons. Hendriks broke out with the A’s in 2019, tossing 85 frames with a 1.80 ERA to secure his first All-Star selection. He’d surely have earned another had there been a Midsummer Classic in 2020, as he finished ninth in AL Cy Young balloting during the abbreviated season thanks to a 1.78 mark through 25 1/3 frames.

After that season, the right-hander made the move to Chicago. Hendriks inked a $54MM guarantee with the White Sox, with Chicago gambling he’d maintain his late-career breakout form. He’s done just that, posting a 2.66 ERA over 127 frames with the Sox. After posting a 2.54 ERA in year one, he followed up with a 2.81 mark through 57 2/3 innings this past season. Hendriks earned All-Star selections in both seasons and struck out an excellent 36.2% of batters faced in 2022. He missed a few weeks in the middle of the year with a forearm strain — an alarming-sounding diagnosis for a pitcher — but he returned seemingly no worse for wear, striking out 35.4% of opponents while sitting north of 97 MPH on his heater in the second half.

Any contender looking for bullpen help could check in with Chicago general manager Rick Hahn. Hendriks would be an impact addition to the late innings for any club, and the Mets are no exception. New York has one of the handful of relievers who might be better than Hendriks to pitch the ninth inning after re-signing Edwin Díaz to a five-year free agent contract. They agreed to terms with Adam Ottavino on a two-year deal this afternoon, and they’ve also brought in David Robertson from outside the organization. The Mets don’t necessarily need more bullpen help, but they’ve shown no qualms about going after high-end talent no matter the cost.

That’s reflected in their astronomical spending, the likes of which MLB has never seen before. New York has a 2023 player payroll projected by Roster Resource around $351MM. Their luxury tax number sits around $363MM, a staggering $130MM higher than next year’s base tax threshold. That lines them up for a projected tax bill of $92.4MM, which would put their total player spending around $443.4MM.

Additional pickups would obviously add to that figure. Hendriks is guaranteed $14MM in 2023, and his contract contains a $15MM club option for the ’24 season. That comes with a matching $15MM buyout, which would be distributed in $1.5MM installments through 2033. That’d be a small benefit, but the only incentive for the White Sox not to exercise the option would be if Hendriks suffers an injury that takes him out of action for most or all of the 2024 campaign or has such a dramatic drop in performance his spot on the roster would be in jeopardy.

If Hendriks is traded, that option vests. Hendriks would then be guaranteed $29MM over the next two seasons. Matt Gelb of the Athletic has previously reported that under the new CBA, for luxury tax purposes, traded players on multi-year contracts see the average annual value of their deal recalculated at the time of the trade. In Hendriks’ case, he’d be pegged at $29MM over two years — a $14.5MM AAV for an acquiring team. If not traded, his deal counts for $18MM against the White Sox’s tax ledger in 2023, as it was technically a three-year, $54MM guarantee at signing.

For the Mets, taking on a $14.5MM AAV would come with an additional $13.05MM in taxes, as they’re taxed at a 90% clip on all future spending. Topping $27MM in actual money annually for a reliever is something virtually no other team would do, but New York seemingly can’t be counted out of any move at this point.

Of course, there’s no indication the Mets and White Sox have made much or any progress. To this point, the exercise is mostly theoretical. New York would face plenty of competition if the Sox commit to moving Hendriks, who’s better than any available free agent reliever. Chicago could certainly elect to hang onto him entirely, since they’re working to rebound from an 81-81 showing to compete in the AL Central. The White Sox agreed to terms with Andrew Benintendi on a five-year, $75MM deal last week. If his salaries are evenly distributed, that’d push their projected payroll to $193MM, which would be right in line with this past season’s franchise-record mark.

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